Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 16 despite increase in disapproval of the provincial government’s performance

From June 20 to June 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explore how people feel if Premier Ford called for an early election along with our usual trackers.

Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 16-points over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals, NDP gain 3 points.

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 25%, with the Ontario NDP closely behind at 22%, and the Greens at 8%.  

These results continue to be consistent with previous surveys, including last month’s, and changes are within the margin of error of the survey.

Our data finds a symmetry between federal and provincial voting intentions. Both the Ontario PCs and Liberal vote share in Ontario is slightly lower than their federal cousins. The Ontario NDP vote share is slightly higher than their federal counterpart.

Regionally, the Ontario PCs are also ahead in every region of the province. They lead by 13 points in Toronto, 19 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 18 in eastern Ontario.

Importantly, compared to our last survey, the Ontario PCs have gained ground in southwestern Ontario (rising by 7 points) and eastern Ontario (rising by 4 points). For the Ontario Liberals support is slightly down across most regions and 4 points down in the GTHA.

The Ontario PCs also lead in all demographic groups. They are well ahead among men (23-point lead) and among those over 44 years of age. There are two important changes from our last survey.

Last May, among women, the PCs and Liberals were in a tight race. This month, Ontario PCs’ lead the Liberals by 10 points, as support for the PCs increased by 6 points and support for the Liberals decreased by 5 points. Similarly, among those 45 to 59, the PCs are now ahead by 19 points, an increase of 8 points from last month.

As with vote intention, party leader impressions are largely the same as last month. While 35% have a positive view of Premier Ford (a 4-point increase from last month), he has net score of -10. This represents a 2-point drop since last month, as negatives have increased as well.

In contrast, impressions of NDP leader Marit Stiles and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner are net positive. NDP leader Marit Stiles has a net score of +4 and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net score of +5. Impressions of Ontario Liberal Party leader, Bonnie Crombie, decreased marginally, with a net impression of -2. All in, there has been little change in how Ontarians feel about the party leaders.

Government Disapproval Jumps 5-Points

Today, 34% of Ontarians say they approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government, down 3-points from last month while those disapproving is up to 45%. This is the highest level of disapproval since February but still lower than the 48% we measured at the start of the year.

An Early Provincial Election?

Media organizations have reported that the PCs and the Premier are considering calling a provincial election earlier than the scheduled June 2026 timeline.

To assess how the public might react to this, we randomly split our sample and asked people how they would feel if Premier Ford called an early election with three different contexts.

A third of the sample was asked the question without any additional information (let’s call this the control group), a third was shown what an election might cost (experimental group 1), and a third was told that the Premier was calling the election to take advantage of Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity (experimental group 2)

In all three cases, most Ontarians are either happy or unbothered by the prospect of an early election.

When the “control group” was asked their reaction to an early election without any framing, 36% indicated they would be happy with the decision while another 50% said their reaction would be neutral. Only 15% indicated they would be unhappy.

When “experimental group 1” was told that the election would cost $150 million to administer, negative reactions rise to 44% with the rest being either happy (17%) or neutral (39%).

For “experimental group 2”, when told the Premier would call the early election to take advantage of Justin Trudeau’s unpopularity, 20% react negatively, 29% positively, and the remaining 51% have a neutral reaction.

The proportions and dynamics are similar among those who voted PC in 2022. An early election call in which the cost is front and centre creates some friction but not substantially so. 10% of PC voters say they would be very unhappy with an early election when the cost of an election is included in the question.

The Upshot

Since our last survey little there have been some changes across the province. While the Ontario PCs continue to lead by a wide margin, the government’s approval has turned more negative.  Almost half of Ontarians now disapprove of the government’s performance, a level not seen in our tracking since February.

If an election was held today, the Ford PCs would likely win another majority. The Ontario Liberals under Bonnie Crombie’s leadership have yet to gain any traction while the Ontario NDP has gained a bit more support but still trail in third place. Marit Stiles has a net favourable impression but there are still many Ontarians who don’t know her that well. This is both an opportunity and a threat.

Finally, an early election call is unlikely to create much friction for the provincial government unless the cost is well understood and becomes a lightening rod for discontent.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from June 20 to 25, 2024.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Abacus Data Poll: Pre-Toronto-St. Paul’s Byelection, Conservatives lead by 19

From June 20 to 25, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,900 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. This survey was conducted before the Toronto-St. Paul by-election.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we ask Canadians who would be better at dealing with key issues – Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre – along with our usual trackers.

Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 19 over the Liberals

There’s little change since our last survey. If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.

Every party’s vote share is consistent with the last wave, except for the Liberals, who are up 1.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC and Ontario, leading by 17. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives’ lead continues to shrink compared to our last surveys.

In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 10-points with the Conservatives in third at 23%.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all groups. However, there are two important changes since our last survey. Conservative support among 45-to-59 increased 7 points (49% vs 42%), as support for the Liberals and the NDP shrank slightly (1 point down and 4 points down respectively).

At the same time, support for the Conservatives among 30-to-44 went down 8 points (40% from 48% in the last survey), as the Liberals and the NDP are now tied with 23%.

We also find little difference in vote intention between men and women. The gender gap that was persistent prior to last month, continues to be non-existent today.

There hasn’t been a shift in vote intentions nor in the size of the party’s accessible voter pools. The Conservative pool remains 11-points larger than the Liberal one.

Beyond vote intention, there’s been little change in the perception of the country’s direction. An overwhelming majority (62%) believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 25% (down 2) believe it’s in the right direction.

The desire for change remains largely consistent with the last wave of research. 84% want change with 54% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also static. 58% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, 1 point down from our last survey, and 26% have a positive view for a net score of -32.

Impressions of Pierre Poilievre continue to hold steady. Today 39% have a positive impression (unchanged from our last survey), while 36% have a negative impression (down 1) for a net score of +3.

Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are similarly consistent with 35% having a negative view, and a slight increase in positive impressions with 35% (up 2 points from our last survey), with a net score of 0. This is the first time since April that Mr. Singh’s net favourable.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

Trudeau vs Poilievre on Policy

In this survey, we asked Canadians which leader, Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre, would be better to deal with several key issues or policy areas.

On nearly all issues, Pierre Poilievre leads Justin Trudeau. Poilievre leads by 25 points on “keeping taxes as low as possible”, by 18 points on “making life more affordable for you,” and by 14 points on “Building more housing and making it affordable.” Housing and the cost of living are the top two most cited issues by the public right now.

Also of note, more Canadians (44%) believe Poilievre would be better to deal with the potential of Donald Trump becoming president again than do Justin Trudeau (30%).

Trudeau leads Poilievre on only two items:  “taking action to deal with climate change” and “making childcare more affordable.”

It is worth noting that about 1 in 4 Canadians are still unsure of who would better at dealing with all issues.

Among Liberal switchers (those who voted Liberal in 2021 but today are voting for another party or are undecided), Poilievre leads again in nearly all issues, except childcare and climate change, where Trudeau performs better than then he does on average. Poilievre and Trudeau are also tied in “Protecting and improving the healthcare system.”

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “We conducted this survey before the stunning upset in the Toronto-St. Paul byelection, a long-time Liberal stronghold. Toronto-St. Paul had not elected a Conservative MP since 1993. While still surprising, the results of the b-election are consistent with our survey results and while the outcome was surprising, the diminished Liberal margin should not have been. Last month we had the Liberal support dropped to 22%, the lowest since the Liberals were elected in 2015.

Perhaps most concerning in this poll is how Poilievre performs against Trudeau on the key policy areas. He’s well ahead on the cost of living, housing, and managing the economy. He also has a 14-point lead when it comes to who best Canadians think can deal with another possible President Trump.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from June 20 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.248%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Interest rates and Inflation: Most Canadians are cautious about the future

Many Canadians saw the Bank of Canada cut interest rates earlier this month and felt it is a step in the right direction. But how do they feel about the real consequences of these cuts and who do Canadians believe is responsible for somewhat persistent inflation?

The findings below are from an online survey of n=1,550 gen pop adults in Canada from June 6th to June 13th 2024. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

First, how are Canadians feeling about inflation and the cost of living? Cost of living remains the top issue for Canadians overall and for voters of the three main parties by a 10 point + margin. Affordability is still clearly a challenge for most Canadians.

Last summer, right after the final interest rate hike to 5%, we asked Canadians how they felt about inflation. As with last summer, few Canadians believe inflation in Canada is lower than other countries in the world signalling a continued disconnect between perceptions and reality. Now however, more say we are in line with others.

If anything, Canadians seem to have the world view that inflation challenges have yet to ease, and the cost of living challenges that come with it are still here to stay for some time, for everyone.

Canadians still believe companies charging unnecessarily high prices and government spending are the biggest contributors to high inflation. And the intensity of these beliefs has increased considerably since last summer.

36% say companies charging higher prices for bigger profits is one of the biggest factors, up ten points from last summer. 28% say increased government spending is one of the biggest factors up 5 points.

Other factors are up to, like the federal carbon tax (up 6 pts since last summer, now 22%) and global supply chain shortages.

The longer inflation goes on, the more Canadians believe it’s caused by a number of factors, though the blame is placed on companies and governments the most.

Across the political spectrum, there have also been some changes as to who is to blame. Liberals, Conservatives and NDP supporters feel companies are shouldering a bigger responsibility for inflation, more so than 2023. Perhaps unsurprisingly NDP voters place a particularly large amount of blame on companies.

Governments too are facing more criticisms across the board. 46% of Conservatives feel federal and provincial governments spending is one of the biggest factors of inflation, up 7 points since 2023. Liberal voters are least critical- at only 12%, but this is also up significantly since 2023.

Increased blame also signals impatience- more and more Canadians feel governments and companies are working against them in their struggles with cost of living.

Does the rate cut change things for Canadians today?

Not yet. A third of Canadians say they are waiting for more changes to the interest rates before making a big purchase. Younger Canadians are particular dependent on changes with 45% saying they will keep waiting before making a purchase.

Many Canadians are waiting, likely because they don’t expect to see cost relief anytime soon. In fact, most seem to think prices will rise in the short term, housing in particular. 21% expect housing prices to rise quickly.

Young people are most likely to say prices will rise and continue to rise quickly in the short term.

THE UPSHOT

After a period of rapid rate hikes and rising inflation, Canadians are still sensitive about purchases and cautiously optimistic about any positive trends for cost of living. One rate cut doesn’t appear to be enough to swing Canadians mood towards the positive.

Relief hasn’t been felt yet, many are still withholding purchases (young Canadians in particular). This means Canadians continue to be frustrated and pessimistic about where things are headed, and increasingly frustrated towards those they feel are contributing or standing in the way of easing cost of living challenges. This will likely continue until Canadians feel cost of living is trending in the right direction.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from June 6 and 13, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.49%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by the Canadian Telecommunications Association. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Consumer BehaviourInsightsPolls

Oh Canada Day, eh? Embracing Generational Love for the Maple Leaf

From June 20 and 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey of 1,926 Canadians aged 18 and over to gauge their perspectives on quality of life, happiness, optimism about the future, and sources of national pride. The findings highlight significant generational variations in Canadian pride, with a majority expressing pride anchored in Canada’s natural beauty, societal safety, healthcare system, inclusivity, and cultural diversity. Despite facing economic and societal challenges, a resilient sense of well-being and optimism prevails among many Canadians.

Canadian Pride: Generational Perspectives and Motivations

Two-thirds of Canadians express pride in being Canadian, with only 11% indicating otherwise. Interestingly, there is a notable generational difference in this sentiment. Specifically, 81% of Canadians aged 60 and older state they are proud to be Canadian, whereas 49% of those aged 18-29 and 58% of those aged 30-44 share the same sentiment. These findings underscore that Canadians, overall, maintain a strong sense of national pride, albeit with variations across different age groups reflecting diverse generational perspectives.

Among those proud to be Canadian, the leading reasons include the country’s natural beauty and environment (70%), its reputation for a peaceful and safe society (61%), and the availability of universal healthcare (58%). Additionally, 53% express pride in Canadian values and inclusivity, while 45% cite Canada’s cultural diversity and multiculturalism as reasons for their pride. These findings highlight that Canadians take pride in a variety of aspects that define their nation, from its natural beauty and safe society to its values of inclusivity and multiculturalism, reinforcing a deep and multifaceted sense of national pride across the country.

Conversely, among those who do not feel proud to be Canadian, the primary reasons relate to economic struggles or lack of opportunities (55%) and disagreement with Canadian policies or politics (53%). Furthermore, 42% of respondents attribute their lack of pride to Canada’s global reputation or perception, while 39% cite negative experiences with Canadian institutions, and 37% mention perceived inequalities or injustices in Canadian society. These insights highlight the complex interplay of personal experiences and societal challenges that influence Canadians’ feelings towards national pride.

Well-being and Happiness Among Canadians

Today, half of Canadians (49%) report a positive quality of life, with only 14% indicating their quality of life is poor, despite current challenges that many are facing. Quality of life is notably higher among Canadians aged 60 and older (58%) compared to those aged 45 to 59 (43%). These findings underscore a resilient sense of well-being among Canadians.

Half of Canadians (51%) express satisfaction with their overall happiness and personal well-being today, with 17% reporting unhappiness. Happiness levels are significantly higher among those aged 60 and older (64% happy) compared to younger Canadians. Conversely, 20% of 18-29 year olds and 22% of 30-44 year olds indicate current unhappiness.

Optimism and Pessimism Across Canada

When considering their outlook on life, 42% of Canadians report feeling optimistic, while 26% hold a pessimistic view. Notably, Canadians aged 60 and older are significantly more likely to have a positive outlook (53%), whereas approximately 30% of younger Canadians express a pessimistic perspective. Furthermore, among those who believe the country is headed in the right direction, 63% have an optimistic outlook on life. In contrast, 33% of those who think the country is headed in the wrong direction report a pessimistic outlook.

The Upshot

While Canadians face various challenges and hold differing views on the current state of the country, a resilient sense of pride and optimism persists. Two-thirds of Canadians express pride in being Canadian, with older generations particularly emphasizing this sentiment. This pride is deeply rooted in the nation’s natural beauty, peaceful and safe society, universal healthcare, inclusivity, and cultural diversity, highlighting the inherent beauty and values that make Canada a cherished home for its residents.

However, economic struggles, political disagreements, and societal inequalities temper this pride, especially among younger Canadians. These issues underscore the complex realities that shape national sentiment, reflecting a mix of pride in what Canada stands for and concern over areas needing improvement, as well as the current challenges facing the country today.

Despite facing challenges related to the economy, policy disagreements, and concerns about a weakening global reputation, many Canadians continue to report a positive quality of life and express satisfaction with their happiness and well-being. Optimism about the future remains strong, particularly among those who believe the country is headed in the right direction, underscoring a resilient sense of pride in being Canadian. The nation’s natural beauty, societal safety, values of inclusivity, and cultural diversity are cherished characteristics that contribute to this enduring optimism and hope for Canada’s future.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,926 Canadian adults from June 20 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.23%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogInsightsPolls

Consumer Insights: Canadian Mobile Wireless Sector Providing Lower Prices and Greater Value to Canadians

Lire en français

Between May 16 and 24, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey involving 5,000 Canadians aged 18 and over. The survey was commissioned by the Canadian Telecommunications Association (CTA) to evaluate perceptions of cell phone rates and service offerings, examining how frequently Canadians switch their plans, their views on the service provided by new plans, and comparing costs between new and previous plans.

Amid rising cost-of-living concerns, the study indicates that the majority of Canadians who have recently changed their cell phone plan report that they are receiving lower prices and greater value. Despite criticisms from some that price reductions are not being reflected in Canadians’ cell phone bills, the research indicates that people who have switched plans are saving money and getting better value compared to their previous plans.

Consumers Taking Advantage of Better Prices and More Services/Features

Current research reveals that 1 in 4 Canadians (26%) have changed their wireless plans in the past 12 months. Among those who switched, 47% switched to a different service provider while 53% switched to a different plan offered by their current service provider.

Of those who changed plans, 79% cited better pricing as the primary reason, particularly among those who compare cell phone plans and prices, with 4 in 5 indicating they switched for a better price. Additionally, 49% of Canadians switched plans to obtain more data. These findings highlight that many Canadians are successfully finding better rates and service plans, especially those who actively compare options.

Furthermore, among those who have not changed their plan, 1 in 5 Canadians (19%) expect to change their wireless service in the next 12 months, while 29% are uncertain. Price is a crucial consideration for 85% of those anticipating a change in their service plan. This insight highlights the dynamic nature of consumer preferences, with customers continuously evaluating and adjusting their plans to meet evolving needs and financial situations.

The Impact of Pricing on Consumer Behaviour

When evaluating the cost of their current plan and the services/features that they receive in their plan compared to their previous one, 63% of Canadians who have switched plans note that the cost of their current plan is lower than their previous plan while receiving the same or more services. An additional 17% indicate that they are paying the same as before but are receiving more services. This data collectively demonstrates a heightened consumer awareness of pricing changes within the wireless service market, highlighting that price is a crucial factor influencing decision-making processes among Canadian consumers.

In addition to improved pricing, 88% of Canadians say they are receiving the same or more services after changing their wireless plans. Further, among those who report paying less for their monthly plan, 84% are receiving the same or more services than before. Among respondents who note that they are receiving additional services, many reported an increased data allotment (74%) and higher data speeds (49%).

These findings illustrate a positive trend in the telecommunications industry, where Canadians who switch plans are not only benefiting from lower prices but also receiving enhanced services. This shows that the sector has responded to consumer demands and preferences by offering reduced pricing and value-added services.

Enhanced Value Perception Among Canadians Switching Wireless Plans

Most Canadians who switched their wireless plans perceive increased value with their new service, driven by lower costs, more services, and improved pricing. An overwhelming 86% of respondents felt they were getting a better deal with their new plan compared to their previous one. This dual value perception—financial savings and expanded services—underscores the complexity of consumer decision-making in telecom and emphasizes the need for providers to offer competitive pricing and tangible benefits aligned with customers’ preferences and usage patterns. Despite critics claiming that Canadians are not experiencing lower service bills, the majority of those who have switched plans report they are paying less and receiving better value than before.

The Upshot

The latest research shows a positive trend in the telecom industry: Canadians switching plans are getting lower prices and improved services. While critics may say cell phone prices haven’t dropped or that Canadians are not seeing lower cell phone service bills, the majority of those who have switched cell phone plans disagree—most acknowledge that they’re paying less and getting more. Amidst talk about cell phone plan costs, this research commissioned by the CTA shows a changing picture.

The study reveals a dynamic shift in consumer behaviour, with 26% of Canadians changing wireless plans last year. Price is a big reason, with 79% saying it’s why they switched. Also, 63% noticed their new plan costs less, highlighting affordability’s impact. Plus, 88% report getting the same or more services after the switch.

Despite economic challenges like rising living costs, cell phone plans offer relief to consumers. Those who switched plans are positive, finding better value in their new service. While debates continue about plan costs, the current research demonstrates that switchers are saving money and getting more for their dollar.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 5,000 Canadian adults from May 16 and 24, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by the Canadian Telecommunications Association. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Access the full report HERE

Perspectives des consommateurs : Le secteur canadien de la téléphonie mobile offre des prix plus bas et une valeur accrue aux Canadien

Entre le 16 et le 24 mai 2024, Abacus Data a mené une enquête nationale impliquant 5 000 Canadiens âgés de 18 ans et plus. L’enquête a été commandée par l’Association canadienne des télécommunications (ACT) pour évaluer les perceptions des tarifs de téléphonie cellulaire et des offres de service, en examinant à quelle fréquence les Canadiens changent leurs forfaits, leurs opinions sur le service fourni par les nouveaux forfaits, et en comparant les coûts entre les nouveaux forfaits et les forfaits précédents.

Au milieu des préoccupations croissantes concernant le coût de la vie, l’étude indique que la majorité des Canadiens qui ont récemment changé leur forfait de téléphone portable rapportent qu’ils bénéficient de prix plus bas et d’une meilleure valeur. Malgré les critiques de certains selon lesquelles les réductions de prix ne se reflètent pas dans les factures de téléphone cellulaire des Canadiens, la recherche indique que les personnes ayant changé de forfait économisent de l’argent et obtiennent une meilleure valeur par rapport à leurs forfaits précédents.

Les consommateurs profitent de meilleurs prix et de plus de services/fonctionnalités

Les recherches actuelles révèlent que 1 Canadien sur 4 (26 %) a changé de plan sans fil au cours des 12 derniers mois. Parmi ceux qui ont changé, 47 % sont passés à un autre fournisseur de services tandis que 53 % ont opté pour un autre plan proposé par leur fournisseur actuel.

Parmi ceux qui ont changé de forfait, 79 % ont cité de meilleurs prix comme principale raison, en particulier parmi ceux qui comparent les forfaits et les prix de téléphonie mobile, avec 4 sur 5 indiquant qu’ils ont changé pour obtenir un meilleur prix. De plus, 49 % des Canadiens ont changé de forfait pour obtenir plus de données. Ces résultats montrent que de nombreux Canadiens réussissent à trouver de meilleurs tarifs et forfaits de service, surtout ceux qui comparent activement les options.

De plus, parmi ceux qui n’ont pas changé de forfait, 1 Canadien sur 5 (19 %) prévoit changer de service sans fil au cours des 12 prochains mois, tandis que 29 % sont incertains. Le prix est une considération cruciale pour 85 % de ceux qui prévoient changer de forfait. Cette information souligne la nature dynamique des préférences des consommateurs, avec des clients qui évaluent et ajustent continuellement leurs forfaits pour répondre à leurs besoins et situations financières en évolution.

L’impact des prix sur le comportement des consommateurs

Lors de l’évaluation du coût de leur forfait actuel et des services/fonctionnalités qu’ils reçoivent dans leur forfait par rapport à leur forfait précédent, 63 % des Canadiens qui ont changé de forfait notent que le coût de leur forfait actuel est inférieur à celui de leur forfait précédent tout en recevant les mêmes services ou plus. De plus, 17 % indiquent qu’ils paient le même prix qu’auparavant, mais reçoivent plus de services. Ces données montrent collectivement une sensibilisation accrue des consommateurs aux changements de prix sur le marché des services sans fil, soulignant que le prix est un facteur crucial influençant les processus de prise de décision parmi les consommateurs canadiens.

En plus d’une amélioration des prix, 88 % des Canadiens disent recevoir les mêmes services ou plus après avoir changé de forfait sans fil. De plus, parmi ceux qui rapportent payer moins pour leur forfait mensuel, 84 % reçoivent les mêmes services ou plus qu’auparavant. Parmi les répondants qui indiquent recevoir des services supplémentaires, nombreux sont ceux qui rapportent une augmentation de leur allocation de données (74 %) et des vitesses de données plus élevées (49 %).

Ces résultats illustrent une tendance positive dans l’industrie des télécommunications, où les Canadiens qui changent de forfait bénéficient non seulement de prix plus bas, mais aussi de services améliorés. Cela montre que le secteur a répondu aux demandes et préférences des consommateurs en offrant des prix réduits et des services à valeur ajoutée.

Perception de valeur améliorée chez les Canadiens changeant de forfaits sans fil

La plupart des Canadiens qui ont changé de forfait sans fil perçoivent une valeur accrue avec leur nouveau service, motivée par des coûts plus bas, plus de services et une amélioration des tarifs. Une écrasante majorité de 86 % des répondants estiment qu’ils obtiennent une meilleure offre avec leur nouveau forfait par rapport à leur précédent. Cette perception de double valeur — économies financières et services élargis — souligne la complexité de la prise de décision des consommateurs en matière de télécommunications et met en évidence la nécessité pour les fournisseurs d’offrir des prix compétitifs et des avantages tangibles alignés sur les préférences et les habitudes d’utilisation des clients. Malgré les critiques affirmant que les Canadiens ne bénéficient pas de factures de services plus basses, la majorité de ceux qui ont changé de forfait rapportent payer moins et recevoir une meilleure valeur qu’auparavant.

La Conclusion

Les dernières recherches montrent une tendance positive dans l’industrie des télécommunications : les Canadiens qui changent de forfaits bénéficient de prix plus bas et de services améliorés. Bien que certains critiques affirment que les prix des téléphones cellulaires n’ont pas baissé ou que les Canadiens ne voient pas de réduction sur leurs factures de services cellulaires, la majorité de ceux qui ont changé de forfait ne sont pas d’accord — la plupart reconnaissent qu’ils paient moins et reçoivent plus. Au milieu des discussions sur les coûts des forfaits de téléphonie cellulaire, cette recherche commandée par l’ACT montre un tableau en évolution.

L’étude révèle un changement dynamique dans le comportement des consommateurs, avec 26 % des Canadiens ayant changé de forfait sans fil l’année dernière. Le prix est une raison majeure, avec 79 % déclarant que c’est pourquoi ils ont changé. De plus, 63 % ont remarqué que leur nouveau forfait coûte moins cher, soulignant l’impact de l’accessibilité. De plus, 88 % déclarent recevoir les mêmes services ou plus après le changement.

Malgré les défis économiques tels que l’augmentation du coût de la vie, les forfaits de téléphonie cellulaire offrent un soulagement aux consommateurs. Ceux qui ont changé de forfait sont positifs, trouvant une meilleure valeur dans leur nouveau service. Alors que les débats sur les coûts des forfaits continuent, les recherches actuelles démontrent que ceux qui ont changé d’abonnement économisent de l’argent et en ont plus pour leur argent.

Méthodology

L’enquête a été menée auprès de 5 000 adultes canadiens du 16 au 24 mai 2024. Un échantillon aléatoire de panélistes a été invité à répondre au sondage à partir d’un ensemble de panels partenaires basés sur la plateforme d’échange Lucid. Ces partenaires sont généralement des panels d’enquête à double consentement, mélangés pour gérer les éventuels biais dans les données provenant d’une seule source.

La marge d’erreur pour un échantillon aléatoire de probabilité comparable de la même taille est de +/- 1,39 %, 19 fois sur 20.

Les données ont été pondérées selon les données du recensement pour garantir que l’échantillon corresponde à la population du Canada en fonction de l’âge, du sexe, du niveau d’éducation et de la région.

Ce sondage a été financé par l’Association canadienne des télécommunications.

Abacus Data suit les normes de recherche d’opinion publique de CRIC et les exigences en matière de divulgation qui peuvent être trouvées ici: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Access the full report HERE

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Consumer BehaviourInsightsPolls

Abacus Data Poll: Canadians React to the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Cut

Between June 6 and 13 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey involving 1,550 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of the housing situation in Canada. This survey explores Canadians’ awareness and reactions to the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate announcement, highlighting demographic disparities in awareness, satisfaction with the rate cut, personal impacts, economic expectations, and political implications.

Some key findings from the current research are:

  • 71% of Canadians were aware of the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement, with higher awareness among older adults and homeowners.
  • Satisfaction with the rate cut was reported by 40% of Canadians, notably highest among homeowners.
  • 67% of Canadians believed the rate cut had little to no personal impact, especially among older demographics.
  • 74% of Canadians reported that the rate cut had little to no impact on their confidence in Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.

Awareness of Bank of Canada’s Rate Announcement

Most Canadians, 71%, reported being aware of the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement on June 5th, 2024, while 29% were unaware. Awareness was highest among individuals aged 60 and older (84% aware) and among homeowners (82% aware). Conversely, younger Canadians were less likely to be informed about the rate cut, with 46% of those aged 18-29 indicating a lack of awareness. This disparity in awareness highlights the varying levels of engagement across different demographics in Canada.

Diverse Reactions to Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cut

Two in five Canadians report being satisfied with the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut the interest rate by 0.25%, with only 16% expressing dissatisfaction. Satisfaction is highest among homeowners (47%), as the rate cut has the potential to impact mortgage rates and renewals for many Canadians.

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Meanwhile, two-thirds of Canadians believe the rate cut has little to no personal impact on them (67%). This sentiment is strongest among those aged 60 and older (81%), while younger Canadians show a marginal degree of optimism, with 12% of those aged 18-29 noting that it had a significant to extreme impact on them.

Additionally, 42% of Canadians see the rate cut as a sign of positive progress, a belief most prevalent among homeowners (51%) and those who voted for the Liberals in the 2021 election (56%).

Expectations on the Economic Impact and Future Rate Cuts

Overall, 42% of Canadians do not believe the rate cut will have any noticeable impact on the economy, while 43% think it will make a difference. Young Canadians are more optimistic, with 56% expecting a noticeable economic impact, compared to 58% of those aged 60 and older who believe it will have no effect.

Additionally, 40% of Canadians anticipate further rate cuts this year, whereas 24% think additional cuts are unlikely. Those who voted for the Liberal party in the 2021 election are more likely to expect further rate cuts (53%), while 39% of Conservative voters from 2021 remain unsure about future cuts. These varying perspectives highlight the differing economic outlooks and expectations among Canadians based on age and political affiliation.

Rate Cut’s Impact on Confidence in Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals

Responses to the rate cut’s effect on confidence in Justin Trudeau and the Liberals varied significantly among Canadians. Overall, 74% felt it had little to no impact on their confidence. Younger Canadians, particularly 18-29-year-olds (16%) and 30-44-year-olds (15%), were more likely to perceive an impact, while older Canadians, notably those aged 60 and above, largely believed it had no effect (87%).

Among Liberal voters from the last federal election, 15% noted a significant impact on their confidence in Trudeau’s government, contrasting with 65% of Conservative voters who reported no change. Moreover, among those supporting the re-election of the Liberals, 17% felt a significant impact, whereas 62% of those seeking change with an alternative and 52% of those unsure about an alternative noted no effect on their confidence in Trudeau.

The Upshot

Overall, the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada garnered significant attention among Canadians but had a relatively modest impact on public sentiment. While awareness of the rate announcement was high, satisfaction with the cut was tempered, with only 40% expressing explicit satisfaction. Note, the rate cut is not great news for everyone. Those with savings and little debt have benefited from higher rates in terms of interest earned on that savings. Moreover, a substantial majority of Canadians, 67%, believed the rate cut had little to no personal impact, indicating cautious optimism about its economic implications.

While many Canadians initially viewed the rate cut as a positive step towards future economic improvements, the reality of its perceived minimal immediate impact on personal finances and economic confidence is apparent.

The immediate political impact of the rate cut has been minimal to date. Yesterday, we reported no shift in political opinions and the Conservatives holding a 20-point lead over the Liberals. In fact, when asked how people would vote in this poll, the Liberal Party’s vote share was the lowest we’ve recorded since it was elected in October 2015.

Perhaps most informative from that poll is the finding that among those who rate the cost of living as one of their top three issues (73% of Canadians), only 14% believe the Liberal Party is best able to hand the issue, 4-points fewer than feel that way about the NDP and 24-points fewer than pick the Conservatives.

Voters usually vote for the party they think can best handle the issue they care more about. As long as Canadians are focused on the cost of living and continue to feel friction on the issue, the Liberals face tough odds to be re-elected.

As Canadians continue to navigate economic uncertainties and evaluate political leadership, the rate cut’s muted effects suggest it may not serve as a definitive solution or political boon for the Liberals.

Many Canadians are happy with the rate cut and believe more are coming. This may ultimately improve the public’s mood and give credit to the Trudeau government. But right now, that is not happening suggesting the path forward will likely require further loosening of monetary policy and a shift in perceptions about the federal government’s effort to handle the issues that matter most to people.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from June 6 to 13, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Post-Interest Rate Cut, Conservatives lead by 20 and Liberal vote share drops to lowest level since 2015.

From June 6 to 13, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with a deep dive into what concerns Canadians the most and the performance of political parties on these issues.

Note, all of the interviews in this survey were conducted after the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight interest rate.

Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 20 over the Liberals

If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 22%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives and NDP are up 1 while the Liberals are down 3. About a month ago, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was 16-points. Today it is 20. At 22%, this is the lowest vote share we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC and Ontario, leading by 17. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives’ lead shrank compared to our last survey, but they continue to be ahead of the Liberals by 14 points. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12-points with the Conservatives in third at 22%.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Demographically, Liberal support among 18- to 29-year-olds is back down to where it was pre-budget, as the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals grows again. In May, the Conservatives led by 5 points. Today, the gap is 11-points. The NDP has been the main beneficiary of the drop in youth support for the Liberals. The Conservatives’ lead among Canadians aged 30 and over also grew by 6 points (28-point lead vs 22-point lead in our last survey). There is no gender gap in political support.

Although there has been a small shift voting intentions, there’s been little change in the size of each party’s accessible voter pools. Today, 52% are open to voting Conservative (up 1), 41% are open to voting NDP (unchanged) while 39% are open to voting Liberal (down 1).

No change in other key metrics

Beyond vote intention, there’s been little change in the perception of the country’s direction. An overwhelming majority (60%) believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 27% believe it’s in the right direction. This represents a change of only 1-point (26% in our last survey) among those who think things are headed in the right direction. We will monitor whether the changing interest rate landscape changes this view.

54% of Canadians want a change in government and think there is a good alternative, up 3 since last month while those who definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected is up 2 to 17%.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also static. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 26% have a positive view for a net score of -33. This is unchanged since last month pretty much, although Trudeau’s negatives are up 3 since early May.

Impressions of Pierre Poilievre are holding steady. Today 39% have a positive impression while 37% have a negative impression for a net score of +2.

Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are similarly consistent with 35% having a negative view and 33% having a positive view for a net score of -2.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

This desire for change is partly reflected in the shifting perceptions of the most important issues facing Canada today. Concern for immigration has risen to 26% over the past few weeks, surpassing concerns for climate change and the environment.

Other issues hold steady. The top issue among Canadians continues to be the rising cost of living with 73%, and housing affordability and accessibility with 47%. Additionally, 44% consider healthcare a top issue, while 34% prioritize the economy. In total, 85% of Canadians put either the cost of living or housing as a top issue.

On these issues, when we ask those who prioritize a certain issue, which party is best able to handle the issue, the Conservatives dominate among those who care about immigration, the economy, crime, and the threat posed by China and Russia.

On the top 3 issues – the cost of living, housing, and healthcare – the Conservatives lead by 21 over the NDP on the cost of living (the Liberals are in third), the Conservatives lead by 11 on housing (the Liberals are in third) while the three parties are statistically tied on healthcare with the NDP at 25% and the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 22%.

Among those who rate the economy as a top issue, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by 33-points (50% to 17%). The Conservatives trail on only three other issues – beyond healthcare: inequality and poverty, indigenous reconciliation, and climate change. On climate change, the Liberals are tied with the Greens at 30% with the NDP at 12% and the Conservatives at 11%.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its overnight rate should be good political news for the Liberals. But so far, we see no evidence of improvement in public opinion for Prime Minister Trudeau or the Liberals. The Conservatives lead by 20, the Liberal vote share is the lowest we have seen measured since October 2015, and the general mood of the country has not changed in any meaningful way. We will have additional insights from this poll on some questions related to the interest rate cut out tomorrow. But for now, it’s clear that the Liberals find themselves in as worse an opinion environment today than they have at any point in their 9 years in office.

Perhaps most troubling is how people feel about issue ownership. In all top issues but climate change (now behind immigration), the Liberals trail behind the Conservatives and in some cases by a wide margin – on how people think is best able to handle the issue. This is ultimately reflected in an intensifying desire for change, at a time when it was already very high. Importantly, the perception that there is no alternative to the Liberals and their government has decreased, even among Liberal supporters.” 

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from June 6 to 13, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics