The boundaries between how people think, feel, and act are dissolving. What once lived in distinct silos — consumer behaviour, political attitudes, workplace expectations, social values — is now part of a single, interconnected mindset shaped by uncertainty and a growing sense of precarity.
People are making choices in a world that feels more chaotic, less predictable, and harder to navigate. Economic strain, cultural tension, geopolitical instability, and rapid technological change are shaping not only what people buy or who they vote for, but how they interpret the world around them.
For leaders in business, government, and civil society, this is creating a new kind of challenge.
Decisions that once seemed straightforward now feel riskier. Messages that might have landed easily five years ago can fall flat or backfire today. Assumptions about what people want or expect are no longer reliable.
In this environment, clarity is becoming a strategic asset.
That is the lens through which I see the world evolving. And it is the foundation of the work we do at Abacus Data.
Our mission is simple: help organizations understand people as whole human beings, not just as consumers or voters or stakeholders.
When we study public opinion, we are not just measuring attitudes, we are mapping mindset.
We are tracking how people make sense of a world that feels unstable, and how that sense-making shapes their choices, behaviours, and expectations.
This is no longer just public policy data or market research. It is public sentiment intelligence.
Team Abacus Data combines rigorous polling with behavioural analysis, generational insight, and narrative framing to give leaders a deeper understanding of where people are today and where they are heading next. We help organizations anticipate risks, identify opportunities, and communicate in ways that resonate across every part of people’s lives.
The line between markets and public mood is disappearing. What people believe about the economy affects how they spend. What they think about institutions affects how they engage. What they feel about the future affects what they demand from leaders.
In an age defined by precarity, understanding sentiment is not a luxury. It is essential for making decisions with confidence and building trust with the people who matter most.
This is the work our team does every day. And as the world becomes more uncertain, the value of understanding how people see that world — and why — becomes even more important.
David Coletto is founder and CEO of Abacus Data. Subscribe to his personal substack and tune in every week on his politics podcast over at the Hub Canada.
Last week, I had the privilege of speaking at Wilfrid Laurier University about the future of university education. It’s something I think about a lot. And it’s directly related to a research area I’ve been spending a lot of time exploring, and writing about (I’m even considering writing a book about it).
I call it the precarity mindset. It is a way of thinking that grows out of years of economic strain, global instability, and the rapid advance of technologies that most people still feel they cannot fully understand or control. For many Canadians, it is no longer a question of whether there will be enough to get by. It is a deeper and more existential worry about whether we will be ok at all.
In the work we do at Abacus Data, these worries come through clearly. More Canadians are anxious about meeting basic needs. Many are delaying life decisions because the future feels unpredictable. When we ask people what keeps them up at night, they talk about inflation and housing, but they also talk about war, political division, misinformation, and I think so, more will cite their fears about what artificial intelligence will mean for their jobs and their children. Nearly half of Canadians say they use AI tools regularly, but a majority do not trust the technology. Six in ten believe AI will destroy more jobs than it creates. Only a small share believes they will personally benefit from the wave of innovation they keep hearing about.
This is the mindset universities are working within today. The shift from scarcity to precarity changes how people think about education. Scarcity is about short term survival. Precarity is about long term uncertainty. It is about a desire for institutions that do more than prepare students for a job.
People want institutions that help them see a path forward in a world that feels chaotic.
They want reassurance that the choices they make today will still matter in five or ten years.
They want education that helps them adapt, not just qualify.
That reality creates a powerful opportunity for universities. It also creates urgency.
Universities need to become engines of national optimism. They need to be places where students learn to understand a complicated world, where they gain skills that can evolve as the world changes, and where they build the confidence to move through uncertainty with a sense of agency instead of fear. This is not just a matter of messaging. It is about the substance of what universities teach and how they teach it.
The arts and social sciences are central to this work. I say that not only as a researcher who spends his days analyzing public opinion, but as someone with three social science degrees and fourteen years of teaching experience at Carleton University. My entire career has been shaped by what I learned in political science and public affairs. Those programs taught me to make sense of complexity, to understand how systems behave, to solve problems without clear answers, and to communicate ideas clearly and responsibly.
These are the exact capabilities Canadians need in the AI age. They are not soft skills. They are survival skills in a time when information is multiplying, institutions feel wobbly, and technologies are developing faster than our social norms can keep up. AI is not just a STEM topic. It is already changing how we think about truth, trust, identity, creativity, and fairness. Those questions live at the heart of the arts and social sciences.
The students who will thrive in the future are not the ones who only know how to code or analyze data. They are the ones who can ask better questions. They can understand context, anticipate consequences, and make ethical decisions. They can collaborate with others and communicate ideas in ways that build trust. These are the strengths that come from studying history, sociology, psychology, political science, philosophy, literature, and the many other disciplines that help us interpret the world around us.
If anything, the precarity mindset makes the arts more valuable than ever. Students are not just trying to build a career. They are trying to build a life in a period of constant change. They want a sense of direction and a framework to understand the forces that shape their choices. They want tools that will help them adapt as technologies disrupt industries again and again.
The challenge for universities is to talk about the arts and social sciences with confidence. These programs build resilient citizens. They help people navigate uncertainty. They deepen our understanding of society and give us the vocabulary to solve complex problems. They make democracy stronger and communities more cohesive. They allow us to stay human in a world where machines are becoming more capable by the day.
The future of universities will not be defined by how quickly they adopt new technology. It will be defined by how well they help people make sense of it. In the age of precarity, reassurance is not a luxury. It is a responsibility. And I think the arts are essential to delivering it.
David Coletto is founder and CEO of Abacus Data. Subscribe to his personal substack and tune in every week on his politics podcast over at the Hub Canada.
The results below are from Physician Pulse, a joint initiative of Abacus Data and the Canadian Medical Association surveying physicians across the country. The survey was completed by 447 physicians between November 11th-17th 2025.
Physicians are Watching Closely
Physicians across Canada are paying very close attention to the recent political developments shaping their work. According to our first wave of Physician Pulse, 84% of physicians say they are following government actions that affect the profession such as Alberta’s Bill 26 and Quebec’s Bill 2 either very or somewhat closely. In provinces at the centre of these debates, attention is nearly universal: 87% of physicians in Alberta and 98% in Quebec report they are following the issue.
This level of attentiveness is striking but not surprising. Physicians sit at the intersection of clinical care and public policy; when governments shift the rules governing their work, they feel the consequences first. The data makes clear that physicians understand the stakes and they’re watching because what happens next will shape how they practice and how Canadians receive care.
They Are Experiencing, and Predict, Serious Consequences
Beneath this heightened attention lies deep concern. The first wave of Physician Pulse reveals a profession that feels increasingly strained, undervalued, and anxious about what new policies will mean for themselves and their patients.
Almost half of physicians (43%) say they do not feel trusted or respected by their provincial government. For a workforce already dealing with system-level pressures, this trust gap has meaningful consequences for morale, retention, and long-term system sustainability. The picture worsens in the provinces directly affected by the legislation: 76% of Alberta physicians and 84% of Quebec physicians say they do not feel trusted or respected. Among physicians in Quebec- 70% do not feel trusted by governments at all.
Physicians also foresee ripple effects that extend well beyond their own experience. Eight in ten (80%) believe that growing government oversight of medical practice will make it harder to recruit and retain physicians in their province. Recruitment and retention are foundational to access. If the workforce becomes harder to maintain, there are serious reasons to believe patients will feel it too.
When asked about the direct consequences for care, physicians once again express serious worry. Two-thirds (66%) say these political decisions will worsen the quality-of-care patients receive. Only 13% believe such decisions will improve care. The message is clear: physicians see these changes not as incremental adjustments, but as decisions that could reshape how care is delivered in ways that leave patients worse off.
The Issue Is Especially Pressing in Provinces Directly Impacted
While physicians across Canada express concern, the intensity of these views is much stronger in Alberta and Quebec where government decisions are prompting direct and immediate changes to the practice environment.
Physicians in these provinces are more likely to feel disrespected by government, more convinced that recruitment and retention will suffer, and more worried about the future quality of patient care. In both provinces, the numbers consistently show a sharper sense of risk and a deeper urgency for action.
These findings underline a national story with provincial hotspots: physicians everywhere are uneasy, but those working under new developments are signaling alarm. For policymakers, health-system leaders, and the public, these early results from Physician Pulse offer a clear takeaway; what happens in Alberta and Quebec could foreshadow broader challenges elsewhere if the underlying issues aren’t addressed.
Physician Pulse
Physician Pulse is a joint partnership between the CMA and Abacus Data that collects and delivers fast, reliable insights from physicians across Canada. This rapid-response survey series provides timely insights and physician perspectives of emerging health care issues in Canada.
Canadian Medical Association
The Canadian Medical Association leads a national movement with physicians who believe in a better future of health. Our ambition is a sustainable, accessible health system where patients are partners, a culture of medicine that elevates equity, diversity and wellbeing, and supportive communities where everyone has the chance to be healthy. We drive change through advocacy, giving and knowledge sharing – guided by values of collaboration and inclusion.
Abacus Data
Abacus Data is a leading Canadian research and strategy firm specializing in public opinion, market insights, and communications guidance. We help organizations understand people and trends so they can make better decisions in a fast-changing world.
Methodology
This wave of Physician Pulse is based on an online survey of n=447 physicians in Canada, collected using a hybrid sampling strategy that includes both online panel respondents and outreach conducted through the CMA. As part of this outreach, the CMA specifically targeted physician members in Alberta and Quebec, enabling a more detailed look at perspectives within these two provinces.
Survey data were weighted by region of practice using 2024 statistics from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) to ensure results are representative of the national physician population.
The survey was in field from November 11th-17th 2025.
Recently, Abacus Data partnered with Colleges Ontario to better understand how Ontarians feel about the future of work, the economy, and the role colleges play in preparing people for change.
Ontarians are increasingly anxious about their future. Rising costs, job insecurity, and rapid technological change have created a precarity mindset – a feeling that stability can no longer be taken for granted. People want to know there’s a plan to help them adjust and thrive.
Premier Doug Ford’s promise to “protect Ontario” has resonated because it speaks to that desire for security. But in a world defined by disruption, protection now means more than defending what exists – it means preparing Ontarians for what comes next.
This research explores that tension: a province where people believe change is inevitable, yet remain unsure whether they – and their government – are ready for it. It reveals broad confidence in Ontario’s colleges as the engine of a future-ready workforce, and a growing sense that renewed partnership and investment will be essential to delivering on the shared goal of protecting Ontario’s future.
Ontarians Feel the Pressure of Change and the Need to Adapt
A growing majority of Ontarians are anxious about the province’s economic future and their place within it. Three in four Ontarians (74%) believe Ontario will face widespread job losses over the next five years, driven by economic shifts, automation, and global competition. This concern cuts across political lines – shared equally by Conservative, Liberal, and NDP supporters. While younger Ontarians (18–29) are slightly less pessimistic, nearly two-thirds (63%) still see job losses as likely, underscoring a shared unease about what lies ahead.
Further, more than half (55%) of Ontarians express at least moderate concern about the security of their own job or employment situation. Those aged 30-44 are particularly uneasy (65%), likely reflecting the pressures facing mid-career workers balancing family, mortgages, and uncertain employment prospects.
As workers navigate a shifting economy, many recognize the need to adapt: nearly two-thirds (63%) expect they will need to retrain within the next five years to remain competitive. For younger and mid-career Ontarians in particular, the pressure to reskill is already clear as 75% of those aged 40–44 and 71% of those aged 18–29 anticipate the need to learn new skills to keep pace with change.
The Role of Colleges in Ontario’s Workforce Future
Ontarians see colleges as central to building the province’s economic strength and resilience. They view the college system as where practical skills meet real-world opportunity – institutions that prepare the health care professionals, tradespeople, and technicians Ontario needs today, while developing the skilled talent that will drive growth tomorrow. Colleges are also seen as key to training workers for emerging and in-demand sectors such as green technology, energy, mining, advanced manufacturing, and sustainability-focused industries, areas critical to Ontario’s long-term competitiveness. In fact, Colleges supply more than half the workforce in sectors such as health care, mining, energy, and advanced manufacturing, supporting Ontario’s economy and communities.
By contrast, universities are viewed as engines of research and innovation, specializing in scientific and technical expertise that advances discovery and global competitiveness. Together, with colleges role in applied research and innovation, both systems play distinct but complementary roles. But it is Ontario’s colleges that most Ontarians see as the foundation for a workforce ready to meet the challenges of change – adaptable, skilled, and prepared for the future.
The Cost of Inaction: What’s at Stake Without Increased College Funding
Ontarians are clear: if colleges are not given the resources to grow and modernize, the province’s economic future is at risk. Nearly eight in ten (78%) say that without expanded and updated college programs, Ontario could struggle to develop the skilled workforce needed to compete and deliver essential services. This concern spans political lines and grows stronger with age, reflecting an understanding that the province’s prosperity depends on keeping its talent pipeline strong.
If funding remains stagnant, Ontarians foresee a province that begins to fall behind. Many believe young people will leave Ontario in search of better opportunities, that fewer graduates will enter the skilled trades, and that the overall quality of training programs and public services will decline. Others fear broader ripple effects – fewer local job opportunities, higher unemployment, and growing reliance on immigration to fill critical workforce gaps.
Health care, skilled trades, and manufacturing are seen as the sectors most at risk if colleges cannot keep pace with workforce needs. For Ontarians, the message is clear: ensuring that colleges have the funding to expand, modernize, and adapt isn’t just an education issue – it’s an economic imperative.
A Call to Invest in Ontario’s Future
Ontarians overwhelmingly agree that post-secondary education is essential to safeguarding the province’s future. More than eight in ten (82%) see the system as critical to protecting the province’s long-term prosperity. This belief is consistent across party lines, with 80% of Conservative supporters, 86% of NDP supporters, and 81% of Liberals in agreement. Older Ontarians are especially emphatic, with 88% of those aged 60 and over recognizing the importance of post-secondary education, while strong majorities of younger residents (75% of 18–29 and 78% of 30–44) share that view.
The urgency to act is nearly as universal. Seven in ten Ontarians (71%) say it is at least moderately urgent for the provincial government to increase funding for colleges to help prepare workers for a future shaped by artificial intelligence, automation, and global trade disruptions. Again, there is strong consensus across political lines – 72% of Conservatives, 76% of NDP supporters, and 72% of Liberals agree that action is needed. While older Ontarians feel this most strongly (79% of those 60+), even among the youngest adults, six in ten (60%) recognize that the time to invest is now.
For Ontarians, the conclusion is clear: protecting Ontario’s future means investing in its people. Without renewed funding and strategic investment in colleges, the province risks not just a skills shortage, but the erosion of opportunity, innovation, and long-term growth.
The Upshot
What emerges from this data is not just concern – it’s a deep, pervasive sense of precarity among Ontarians. People feel the ground shifting beneath their feet. They see technological change, global competition, and an uncertain economy threatening their stability, and they’re looking for institutions that can help them adapt and rebuild their sense of security. Colleges sit at the centre of that story. They are the bridge between anxiety and opportunity – between the fear of losing one’s place in the economy and the confidence of knowing there’s a path forward.
For the Ford government, this moment offers an opportunity to expand on its promise to protect Ontario. Protection in today’s economy means more than defending what exists – it means preparing people to succeed in what’s next. Strengthening the college system is a tangible way to do just that: to build a workforce ready for the jobs of tomorrow, to give communities the confidence that opportunity still exists close to home, and to ensure Ontario remains a place where people can build stable, rewarding lives.
Ontarians already believe in the value of their colleges. What they’re looking for now is leadership that turns that belief into action – through renewed investment, modernized training, and a clear plan for the future of work. By investing in people and in the institutions that prepare them, Ontario can transform uncertainty into strength – and truly deliver on the promise of protecting Ontario’s future.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,021 Ontarian adults from September 12 to 17, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.07%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
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On Wednesday evening at Carleton University, I joined students, practitioners, and members of the public for an event called Ghost in the Machine. It was an opportunity to share what Canadians are telling us about artificial intelligence at a moment when technology is accelerating far faster than our ability to understand its consequences. As with so many issues in 2025, AI sits squarely in the emotional space Canadians now occupy. It is the space between scarcity and precarity. It is where people are no longer asking whether there will be enough but whether we will be okay.
To situate AI in this moment, we have to start with the mindset Canadians are bringing into the conversation.
The backdrop is familiar. A world of shocks and disruptions, displayed starkly in the images on the early slides of my presentation: protests, pandemics, war, political upheaval, natural disasters, and economic uncertainty. These are not abstract stimuli. They are lived experiences that have conditioned a population to tighten its grip on whatever stability remains.
From this, a precarity mindset has taken hold. Canadians are preoccupied with questions of safety, belonging, and basic needs.
In our polling, two thirds worry about affording basics in the next six months, and seven in ten say uncertainty is causing them to delay major life decisions. The slide showing Maslow’s hierarchy reveals just how foundational this is: most Canadians see themselves stuck in the lower layers of the pyramid, focused on safety needs and even physiological needs instead of aspiration and growth.
When you start from this emotional and material place, every new technology is filtered through unsteady ground.
It is in this context that Canadians are encountering AI. For all the hype about breakthroughs and disruption, the public’s relationship with AI is far more ambivalent and human than the headlines suggest.
On one hand, nearly half of Canadians say they are using AI at least occasionally, and among young adults that number shoots up to 72 percent (Abacus Data poll from July 2025).
People are experimenting, exploring, and integrating these tools into work and daily life. There is genuine curiosity and a recognition of the potential upside.
Those upsides are real. When we ask Canadians to describe the benefits they see, the top answers reveal a practical optimism. Increased efficiency and productivity rank first. Reduced human error comes next. People mention better access to information and education, greater convenience, improvements in healthcare, and new opportunities for innovation and creativity. These are not fantastical visions of robot-driven utopias. They are grounded, everyday ways AI can make life a little easier, a little smoother, a little more manageable.
But the downsides cast a long shadow, and they loom larger than the benefits for most. A majority say they distrust AI to be used safely and responsibly in society. Nearly half say they have little or no familiarity with it, which makes that distrust unsurprising. And when we ask about risks, Canadians draw from a deep well of apprehension: malicious use, misinformation, loss of privacy, safety risks, job losses, loss of human control, and even fears of social isolation as human connection erodes.
These concerns are not theoretical. They reflect the emotional climate Canadians are living in.
AI does not enter a neutral environment. It enters a Canada already struggling with cost of living pressures, geopolitical fears, and a sense that the future is becoming less predictable. When six in ten Canadians say AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates, they are connecting technological change directly to their own vulnerability. And when only 17 percent believe they personally will benefit from unleashing AI, the message is clear: most people expect gains to flow elsewhere.
This is how AI fuels the precarity mindset.
It becomes another force that feels out of one’s control. Another invisible system shaping opportunity, stability, and identity from the outside. Another thing that might take something away rather than give something back.
When Canadians tell us they need reassurance that things will be okay, that we can get through this moment, they are not speaking about AI directly. They are speaking about everything AI represents in a time of disruption and dislocation.
The temptation in discussions about AI is to get lost in technical debates. What models can do. How they are trained. Which industries will be transformed.
But what Canadians are really asking is much more elemental. How will this change my life. How will this affect my relationships and my work. Will I still have a place in an economy where machines can think. What does human connection look like in a world mediated by algorithms. Do we lose something essential in the exchange.
These are not questions engineers can answer alone. They live at the intersection of psychology, society, and democracy. They require a politics of reassurance, a public conversation rooted in trust, and an economic strategy that ensures people do not feel left behind as change accelerates.
A great risk of AI is not just runaway intelligence or machine domination. It is the slow erosion of the social fabric. The ways big shifts in work, communication, and human interaction can deepen the sense of precarity already shaping Canadian life. It is a future where people feel increasingly disconnected from one another, displaced from meaningful roles, and unsure whether they will be okay.
Our challenge is to prevent that future from becoming real. To ensure AI becomes a tool that supports human flourishing rather than undermining it. To build systems that extend agency rather than constrict it. And to provide the reassurance Canadians are clearly asking for.
Because if the ghost in the machine is fear, then the antidote is trust. And building trust is a choice we still have the power to make.
David Coletto is founder and CEO of Abacus Data. Subscribe to his personal substack and tune in every week on his politics podcast over at the Hub Canada.
Over the past decade, I have watched the public mood shift in ways I have not seen in twenty years of tracking opinion.
Canadians are not just frustrated. They are unsettled.
They are anxious about money, identity, stability, and the future. And they are looking at the people in charge of teams, companies, institutions, and governments to make sense of it.
Yesterday, I had the chance to engage with presidents from some of the leading public colleges, polytechnics, and institutes across Canada. We had a thoughtful conversation about politics, polarization, and the future of Canada.
And together, we agreed that polarization is now a symptom of something deeper. It is not just ideological division. It is the emotional logic of politics and society shifting under our feet.
In my own research, the big drivers of polarization are becoming very clear. Economic precarity. Identity stress. Stagnant living standards. A chaotic information environment. These pressures shape how people think and how they behave at work, in their communities, and in public life.
My team at Abacus Data asked Canadians what they are most focused on in their lives. The results say everything. Only 18 percent say they are focused on achieving their full potential. Just 9 percent are focused on esteem or recognition. Most are not thinking about ambition. They are thinking about survival.
Thirty eight percent say they are focused on safety. Personal security. Employment. Resources. Health. Property. Another 27 percent say they are focused on basic physiological needs like shelter, food, sleep, and the ability to support themselves.
That means almost two thirds of the country is operating from the bottom half of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. When people are focused on survival, they do not take risks. They do not give institutions the benefit of the doubt. They do not assume others will play fair. They fall into zero sum thinking. The idea that if someone else gains, I must be losing.
Zero sum thinking is one of the most powerful accelerators of polarization in the data we collect. When people believe the system is not growing, they start to see other groups as competitors rather than neighbours. Every policy debate becomes a fight over who gets what. Every workplace change feels like a threat. Every social shift feels like a loss.
You can see this most clearly among young adults, especially young men.
They are entering an economy where housing feels out of reach and where stable work is harder to find. They do not feel respected in the culture. They feel the social contract has frayed. Many say they feel lost. It should not surprise anyone that they are more vulnerable to grievance-based content, influencers selling resentment, and online communities that exploit their insecurity.
This is the context leaders are operating in.
Whether you run a team of ten or an organization of ten thousand, your people are living in an environment that constantly reinforces scarcity, anxiety, and mistrust. It shapes how they respond to change and how they interpret your intentions.
What makes this moment even more challenging is the arrival of artificial intelligence.
AI is landing in a world that is already fragile. It will intensify everything we are dealing with.
It will disrupt jobs faster than our systems can adapt.
It will sharpen fears of being replaced.
It will make misinformation more personalized and more believable. Deepfakes will erode shared reality. Synthetic content will blur the line between truth and manipulation.
If leaders do not get ahead of this, AI will widen every existing divide. Between workers who can adapt and those who cannot. Between people who trust institutions and those who think the system is rigged. Between those who feel safe and those who feel ignored.
We have been here before. The late 1800s, often called the Gilded Age, was another moment of rapid transformation. New technologies created massive wealth for a few and deep insecurity for many. Inequality exploded. Workers moved to cities and found instability. Migration and cultural change created identity tension. Public trust in institutions collapsed.
But that period did not end in permanent fracture. It led to the Progressive Era. Leaders demanded reforms. Governments introduced civil service rules that cleaned up patronage. They passed antitrust laws that rebalanced the economy. They created regulatory bodies that set fair rules. They invested heavily in public education. They expanded labour protections. Communities built civic organizations that rebuilt social capital.
The lesson from that era is simple. Societies do not drift out of polarization. They lead their way out through institutional renewal and honest leadership.
So, what does that mean for leaders today?
First, you cannot be neutral about polarization. You do not have to be partisan. In fact, you should avoid it. But you cannot pretend this is someone else’s problem. As a leader your tone, your transparency, and your willingness to explain trade-offs matter. Your people are emotionally exhausted and often suspicious. They fill silence with fear. Clear communication lowers the temperature.
Second, you need to recognize that people are operating from the lower rungs of Maslow’s hierarchy. They want security and predictability. They want to feel respected. They want to know they belong. If you lead with empathy and clarity, you earn trust. If you rely on authority alone, you lose it. They want to be reassured.
Third, you need to create spaces where people can cross lines of identity, age, and background in ways that feel safe. You cannot rebuild social cohesion with statements. You rebuild it through practice. Through structured conversations. Through co-design. Through involvement in decisions. Through the small habits of sharing power.
Fourth, you need to treat AI as both a strategic tool and a social risk. Use it to improve service and performance, but be transparent. Explain how you are using it. Show people you are not replacing them without a plan. Build literacy in your teams. If people see AI as something hidden and imposed, you will deepen mistrust.
Finally, you need to model the culture you want. Calm. Curious. Transparent. Evidence based. Willing to course correct. Willing to listen. People are desperate for leaders who make things feel a little more stable and a little less chaotic.
We cannot control global forces. But we can decide how we lead through them. In this age of precarity and polarization, leadership is no longer about being exceptional. It is about being steady. It is about being clear. It is about being human.
That is what people are looking for right now. Leaders who get it and who get them. Leaders who bring people back into the same story. Leaders who show there is still a path forward that is not zero sum.
David Coletto is founder and CEO of Abacus Data. Subscribe to his personal substack and tune in every week on his politics podcast over at the Hub Canada.
A new province-wide survey conducted by Abacus Data reveals a clear preference among Ontarians for traffic calming infrastructure over the continued use of automated speed cameras. While the Ford government maintains a favourable standing with much of the electorate, the findings show that a pivot away from speed cameras and toward more visible, community-based safety interventions would be met with broad public support, particularly if paired with provincial investments in infrastructure like speed bumps, roundabouts, and enhanced police enforcement.
Speed Cameras Not a Top-of-Mind Issue
The survey of 2,000 Ontario adults, conducted between October 28 and 29, finds limited public salience for automated speed cameras. When respondents were asked in an open-ended way to name something that stands out about the Ford government, only 4% mentioned speed cameras at all. Instead, Ontarians were more likely to associate the government with economic issues, communication style, and broader transportation and infrastructure priorities.
This low level of unprompted attention suggests that speed cameras are not a deeply polarizing or emotionally charged issue. Among Progressive Conservative Party supporters, the issue barely registers. Only 2% of PC voters referenced speed cameras, reinforcing the idea that the government has room to maneuver on the file without alienating its base.
Traffic Calming Seen as a Better Approach
When presented with a clear choice, half of Ontarians (50%) say they prefer traffic calming measures such as speed bumps, raised crosswalks, signage, roundabouts, and increased police enforcement over automated speed cameras. One in three (33%) express a preference for automated cameras, while 17% say they are unsure.
Support for traffic calming cuts across most demographics and regions. Younger Ontarians aged 18 to 44 are especially likely to prefer traffic calming, as are parents with children under 18 (55%) and PC voters (64%). Regionally, support is highest in Eastern Ontario and Northern Ontario, where 56% and 52% respectively favour calming over cameras.
Interestingly, even among those who spontaneously mentioned speed cameras earlier in the survey, 69% prefer traffic calming, while only 24% favour keeping the cameras in place.
A Tangible Impact on Driver Behaviour
There is also widespread agreement that traffic calming features work. Four in five respondents (80%) say these interventions cause them to slow down when driving, with nearly half (46%) saying they “always” do so. The numbers are consistent across gender and age groups, and hold strong among both urban and rural residents.
The perceived effectiveness of specific interventions is equally striking. Speed bumps, the most familiar calming tool, are viewed as effective by 84% of respondents, while increased police enforcement is close behind at 80%. Raised crosswalks and roundabouts are each seen as effective by over two-thirds, and even lower-cost features like flashing signage are rated positively by 68%.
Broad Agreement That Calming Makes Communities Safer
Three in four Ontarians (74%) agree that more investment in traffic calming would improve community safety. That includes 82% of PC voters and 81% of parents of children under 18.
Support is strong in all corners of the province, from 75% in Toronto, 76% in the GTHA, 71% in Southwestern Ontario and 72% in Eastern ONtario. Agreement is also consistent across the political spectrum, with 77% of Liberal and 70% of NDP supporters on board. Only 7% of Ontarians express disagreement with the idea, and just 2% are unsure.
What is particularly notable here is that the belief in traffic calming’s effectiveness is not conditional on party, region, or age. Ontarians appear to be unified in their desire for safer communities, and willing to embrace tangible, physical infrastructure as part of that goal.
A Viable Policy Trade-Off
Perhaps the most consequential finding for the government is how voters respond to a policy trade-off. When asked whether they would support the removal of speed cameras if it came with new provincial funding for traffic calming infrastructure, nearly 60% said they would be more supportive, including 31% who said they would be much more supportive.
Among PC voters, that number rises to 71%. 66% of parents of kids aged 18 and under also say they are more likely to support the removal of automatic speed cameras if the provincial government gave municipalities more funding to add more traffic-calming measures like speed bumps, signage, and increased police enforcement.
Only 16% of Ontarians say they would be less supportive under this scenario.
Political Context
The traffic safety debate is unfolding against the backdrop of continued political strength for the Ford government. The poll finds the Progressive Conservatives with a 22-point lead over the Ontario Liberals and the NDP, each tied at 25%. Current vote intention shows 47% of Ontarians would support the PCs if an election were held today, while the Liberals and New Democrats each capture one-quarter to one-fifth of the vote.
Government approval remains net positive at +9, with 43% approving of the Ford government’s performance and 34% disapproving. That support is particularly strong among men (50%), parents of kids aged 18 and under (51%) and drivers (47%). Among cited automated speed cameras in the open-ended question earlier, 54% approve of the Ford government’s performance.
The Upshot
The results of this province-wide survey reveal that Ontarians show broad and consistent support for replacing automated speed cameras with more visible, community-focused traffic and pedestrian safety measures. While the issue of speed cameras is not highly salient for most residents, mentioned by just 4% when asked what stands out about the provincial government, people are far more engaged when asked about practical solutions to make roads safer.
Half of Ontarians say they would prefer physical traffic calming features like speed bumps, raised crosswalks, roundabouts, and increased police enforcement over the use of automated speed cameras. Only a third prefer the current use of cameras. This preference holds across most demographic and regional groups, and is particularly strong among younger Ontarians, parents, and PC Party supporters.
There is also widespread belief that traffic calming measures are effective. Four in five Ontarians say they slow down when they encounter these features while driving, and nearly three in four agree that investing more in these kinds of interventions would make their communities safer.
When asked to consider a scenario where speed cameras are removed and replaced with municipally delivered traffic calming measures funded by the province, nearly 60% say they would be more supportive of that approach. Support increases further among key segments, including Progressive Conservative voters and parents.
Altogether, the findings suggest that Ontarians are ready to embrace alternative forms of traffic safety over automated speed cameras.
Methodology
The survey was conducted by Abacus Data on behalf of Creative Currency with a representative sample of 2,000 Ontario residents aged 18 and over. The survey was fielded online between October 28 and 29, 2025.
The margin of error for a probability-based sample of this size is ±2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample is representative of the population by age, gender, education, and region.
Due to rounding, totals may not add up to exactly 100%.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
I’m always thinking about how the broader context—economic, political, cultural—shapes what people think, feel, and do. Public opinion doesn’t drift in a vacuum. It responds to the environment people inhabit: the prices they see, the news they scroll, the security they feel.
That’s why 2026 matters. The coming year will not be defined by crisis, but by adjustment. And while it’s about two months away, now is a good time to ask yourself: Are you ready to respond to what’s coming? Do you know what the unmet needs of your customers, workers, or audiences are?
Inflation is mostly tamed, rates are coming down, and the global economy is finding its footing after years of shocks and constant uncertainty. Yet the feeling among Canadians isn’t relief,it’s caution.
Growth will likely hover around 1%, unemployment will likely rise modestly, and trade tensions will persist. Energy-rich regions will fare better than manufacturing-heavy provinces exposed to tariffs and slower U.S. demand. Governments will focus on deficit control, while households still digest higher mortgage payments and rent hikes.
The result is an economy that’s stable on paper but precarious in feeling.
That’s the defining frame for 2026: the precarity mindset -> a lingering sense of vulnerability that shapes how people consume, work, and vote. It’s not panic or despair. It’s a quiet recalibration toward caution, self-protection, and control. And it will influence every aspect of behaviour next year.
Last week, when asked where their focus is today, Canadians overwhelmingly placed themselves lower on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. According to our findings, 38% said they are primarily focused on safety needs—things like personal security, employment stability, and access to health resources—while 27% are still focused on basic physiological needs such as food, housing, and rest.
Only a small share are thinking about higher-level goals: 18% say they’re focused on self-actualization, 9% on esteem, and 8% on love and belonging.
Together, the data show that two-thirds of Canadians are preoccupied with survival and security, not growth or self-expression, underscoring just how deep the precarity mindset runs.
1. If people still feel uncertain about their footing, consumption becomes cautious and values-driven.
Consumers are no longer reacting to crisis, they’re adapting to constraint. The trauma of rapid inflation, rate shocks, and housing scarcity has permanently reshaped how Canadians approach money. Even as prices stabilize, trust in the economy hasn’t recovered.
Households are choosing stability over spontaneity. They’ve internalized the volatility of recent years and are planning for the next shock before it arrives. This is the essence of the precarity mindset: acting as though security must be earned every day because it can be lost overnight.
That mindset produces two distinct shifts in behaviour:
Frugality as identity. Canadians no longer view cutting back as failure; they see it as smart strategy. Being careful is a badge of competence. They save selectively, scrutinize purchases, and reward brands that help them feel in control rather than indulgent.
Trust as currency. After “greedflation” narratives and corporate price-gouging debates, people read motives into markets. They’re more skeptical, more attuned to fairness, and more loyal to brands that mirror their constraints. Authenticity isn’t a marketing cliché, it’s a survival signal.
Marketers should expect the spending mood of 2026 to remain subdued but rational. People will still spend, but every transaction will need to feel justified. The emotional calculus of purchasing is now about reassurance: “Am I making the right choice for my family, my finances, my values?”
Implication: Campaigns that promise control, competence, and value will outperform those selling escape or excess. The brands that succeed won’t be the flashiest—they’ll be the ones that help people feel stable in an unstable world.
2. If work no longer guarantees security, workers seek reassurance, not revolution.
The labour market of 2026 will look normal, until you look closer. Job growth will slow, unemployment will rise toward 7%, and automation and AI will quietly reshape roles. The great resignation is very much over, replaced by what might be called the great recalibration.
Workers have traded ambition for assurance. They’re no longer searching for employers that “inspire” them, but for ones that won’t surprise them. The precarity mindset shows up here too: predictability is the new perk.
Three dynamics are at play:
Security over status. People are less interested in fast promotions and more interested in staying employable. They’re asking: “Will my skills still matter?” rather than “Will I get a bigger title?” Employers that invest in reskilling and signal long-term commitment will attract loyalty even in a soft market.
Flexibility as non-negotiable. Hybrid work has become a normalized right. Rolling it back feels like breaking a promise. In an era of economic uncertainty, flexibility equals trust—and trust equals retention.
Belonging through stability. After years of churn, people crave psychological safety. They want calm leadership, clear direction, and empathetic communication. A chaotic culture, even a high-performing one, feels risky in a world that already feels uncertain.
For employers, the opportunity lies in tone and transparency. Workers aren’t demanding perfection; they’re asking for honesty. They’ll accept tough news if it’s delivered with clarity. The companies that succeed will be those that steady their people, not those that dazzle them.
Implication: The employee value proposition must evolve from aspiration (“grow with us”) to reassurance (“we’ll grow with you”). Stability is the new status symbol.
3. If economic uncertainty persists, politics becomes a search for control.
The political expression of the precarity mindset is already visible: low trust, high frustration, and an electorate hungry for someone who can make things feel manageable again.
Even as inflation falls, few Canadians feel better off. Mortgage renewals, grocery bills, and rent hikes anchor perceptions in scarcity. Trump fuels uncertainty about employment, investment values, and longer term stability. People measure the economy through their anxiety, not through GDP.
That disconnect is why 2026 will likely continue to reward political narratives of control, over borders, budgets, housing, and trade. Tariffs, supply-chain reshoring, and “Made in Canada” messaging tap into a deep desire for stability and self-sufficiency. They give voters something to hold onto in a world that feels externally driven.
But the same dynamic fuels cynicism. Many Canadians no longer believe institutions—governments, banks, corporations—are acting in their interest. When people feel precarious, they become more sensitive to fairness and more skeptical of expertise. That’s fertile ground for populism, but also for policy creativity: solutions that feel protective rather than prescriptive.
For government relations professionals, the challenge is to connect ambition with empathy. Arguments rooted in macroeconomic efficiency—growth, productivity, competitiveness—will fall flat unless they also speak to emotional security and improved micro-economic well being.
Implication: Successful advocacy in 2026 will be about shared protection. Policies that help people feel buffered from volatility—on housing, jobs, or affordability—will earn support even if they’re complex. The story that wins is not “growth for growth’s sake,” but “stability that benefits you.”
The connective thread: reassurance is the new aspiration.
The economy of 2026 won’t likely be defined by crisis, but by fragility. Beneath the surface of stable indicators runs a current of quiet vulnerability. Canadians have learned that shocks are no longer exceptional, they’re structural and constant. And that realization is reshaping the way they think, buy, work, and vote.
For marketers, that means speaking to control, not consumption.
For employers, it means building confidence, not just culture.
For policymakers and communicators, it means offering reassurance that feels earned, not imposed.
This is the era of the precarity mindset – a worldview born from uncertainty and sustained by vigilance. People don’t expect the future to get worse; they just don’t trust it to get better without effort.
The opportunity for leaders is to meet that mood with honesty and empathy. To move beyond promises of growth and speak instead to the deeper emotional need of the moment: to feel safe enough to hope again.
Message me now to learn more on how we can help you connect with your audiences, build out a strategy to lead, or engage your audiences, board, senior leadership team in a briefing about this work.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
We love Atlantic Canada, and we are continuing to raise the bar for public opinion and marketing research in the region.
That’s why we’ve established a Nova Scotia Omnibus survey and a New Brunswick Omnibus survey – both of which we intend to run regularly.
Today, we are also releasing our first New Brunswick-focused provincial politics poll. The results tell a clear story: Premier Susan Holt and the New Brunswick Liberals are more popular today than they were when they formed government, one year ago.
From October 24 to 30, 2025, we surveyed 600 adults across New Brunswick in French and English through our new New Brunswick Omnibus survey. The research started 72 hours after the 2025 Throne Speech was read, with the speech’s key themes and issue frames in the news cycle.
The results we’re sharing today provide a timely snapshot of how New Brunswickers feel about the Holt government and its progress, one year into the Liberal mandate. They also highlight the fact that the Progressive Conservatives are firmly in second place, as their search for a new leader kicks off.
Holt Liberals with Commanding Lead at 53%
One-year after their decisive election win, the Holt Liberals continue to dominate New Brunswick’s political landscape.
If a provincial election was held today, the Holt Liberals would improve upon their 2024 election result, holding a commanding lead over their rivals, and winning every voter segment.
The Liberals currently sit at 53%, which is 5 points higher than what they received at the ballot box last October.
The Progressive Conservatives, now led on an interim basis by Glen Savoie, continue to be the governing party’s closest challenger. The PCs currently sit at 29%. That’s 24-points behind Holt’s Liberals and six points below their own 2024 election performance with Blaine Higgs as Leader.
For their part, the New Brunswick Greens, led by David Coon, continue to hold steady but modest support at 11%, and the NDP, led by Alex White, remain fourth at 3%.
All of these findings suggest that Holt’s Liberals have turned their strong election performance into durable support, with the opposition remaining far behind and divided.
A Strong First Year in Office
As the Holt Government starts its second year in office, twice as many New Brunswickers approve than disapprove of their overall performance.
42% like what they’ve seen and heard from the Premier and her Ministers in past few months, 28% dislike it and 7% are unsure.
This level of approval (and a net positive score) is a good result for any government currently. 42% approval also seems like a particularly strong results right now, with 2025 being a particularly challenging year.
Since the Holt Liberals were elected, larger geopolitical events like Donald Trump’s re-election and threats to our sovereignty and economy have complicated the work of governing.
The timing of this research – shortly after the Throne Speech was delivered – also suggests that New Brunswickers may be attracted to the Holt government’s promises of bold change in spite of the changing circumstances.
Liberals Dominate Across the Province
In addition to having the most support, the Liberals’ voter base remains broad, stretching right across the province.
In northern and Francophone regions, the Liberals continue to dominate, with a thirty-point lead over the PCs.
In southern and central New Brunswick, including urban areas like Fredericton, Saint John, Moncton, and surrounding communities, the Liberals continue to lead, building on their 2024 election gains.
Among rural voters, the race is closer, but the Liberals still hold the advantage overall.
Age also continues to be a factor. Among younger voters under 45, the Liberals have picked up some support since the election, reflecting strong engagement with voters open to collaborative and forward-looking leadership. Among older voters, support for the party remains high, suggesting that Holt’s leadership appeals across generations.
Gender differences also continue to surface. Women express higher approval of the Holt government and are more likely to say they would vote Liberal if an election were held today. Men are more evenly split between the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, but the Liberals continue to lead among both groups.
This combination of regional, age, and gender appeal underscores the Liberals’ broad coalition and helps explain their political resilience after a year in office.
Leader Impressions
The Liberals also have the most popular leader.
The current Premier Susan Holt is well-known and well-regarded across the province, with a net impression score of plus 21. This a strong result for any governing leader, and especially in a year like 2025.
Green Leader David Coon is also well-liked, recording a positive net score of plus 9.
Interim PC Leader Glen Savoie and NDP Leader Alex White are less well-known and therefore have higher neutral and unsure results.
And not surprisingly, U.S. President Donald Trump is extremely unpopular, with a current net impression score of negative 72 in the province.
These findings only add to the governing party’s advantages, with no other leader coming close to Premier Holt’s name recognition or likeability.
The Opposition: Searching for Direction
What about the Progressive Conservatives?
Twelve months after the last election, the PCs, under Interim Leader Glen Savoie, remain the primary alternative to the Liberals, but they are still rebuilding after last year’s big election loss.
Public familiarity with the interim leader remains limited, and only 20% of New Brunswickers express approval of the Official Opposition’s recent performance, with slightly more disapproving (21%), although only by a difference of one-point.
The party’s upcoming leadership race represents both an opportunity and a risk for the PCs: an opportunity to renew its message and reconnect with voters, and a risk of internal division if the contest becomes fractious.
Until a new leader is chosen, the PCs may struggle to command public attention in a province where the governing party continues to enjoy strong approval.
And what about the other opposition parties?
The Greens continue to attract stable support, particularly among younger and urban voters, while the NDP remains much further behind.
Public Mood: Cautious Optimism
Beyond vote intention, what is the mood in New Brunswick this fall?
It’s cautious optimism.
Like all Canadians, New Brunswickers are deeply concerned about larger geo-political events like Trump’s return to the White House and the U.S. trade war.
When asked whether things are mostly on- or off-track in the World, 71% of New Brunswickers choose the wrong track.
When asked to think specifically about Canada and their home province, the results are a bit better, but not overly optimistic.
38% of New Brunswickers think things in Canada are headed in the right direction and 36% think things in their home province are on-track.
What is driving concern in the province? It’s a combination of things.
When New Brunswickers are asked what story in the news is most likely to keep them up at night, the most common answers are: Trump and the U.S. trade war, the economy, and inflation.
This trio of issues is definitely driving dissatisfaction in New Brunswick, making everyday life as well as the future seem more precarious.
However, there is also a sense that the Holt government is handling some of these issues responsibly and acting with purpose.
Holt Government Strong on Responding to Wildfires and Trump, Weak on Housing and Affordability
When asked to rate the recent performance of the Holt government in specific areas, 56% of New Brunswickers approve of the way Premier Holt and her Ministers responded to the wildfires that broke out last summer and caused significant damage.
41% also approve of the way the Holt government is dealing with Trumps’s threats and the U.S. trade war – giving them reasonably good marks in that area too.
Approval in other priority areas – such as improving healthcare, education, and growing New Brunswick’s economy – is more moderate (sitting in the mid-high 30s), with housing and the cost of living being the biggest areas for improvement (in the low 30s).
Falling a Bit Short of Own Expectations for Governing
When it comes to opinions about the way the Premier and her Minsters are governing, the results are also mixed.
43% agree that the Holt government has “hit the ground running since being elected.”
40% approve of the way they’re consulting and communicating with the public.
39% think they’re doing a good job of building trust.
And 38% agree that the “Holt government is putting people at the centre of decision-making” and “we are starting to see positive change happening in New Brunswick.”
These are good results, but not outstanding ones for a government that has consistently emphasized the need for significant change and a different style of governing.
All eyes are now on the Holt government to show New Brunswickers what makes them better decision-makers, as they push their fall agenda forward and manage the business of the day.
The Upshot
One year into governing, Premier Susan Holt and the New Brunswick Liberals are in a stronger position this fall than they were last October. Support for their leadership is broad and stable across the province, and the opposition remains divided.
These results, collected right after the 2025 Throne Speech was delivered, also show that New Brunswickers are mostly on-board with the way that the Holt government is adjusting its plans to meet the current moment.
Holt’s party is starting their second year in office with the kind of leader, political capital, and goodwill that they need to “be bold” and deliver the significant change that they’ve promised. Showing New Brunswickers that they are, in fact, doing things differently and putting people at the centre of the decision-making is now the challenge as well as addressing affordability and housing concerns in a meaningful way.
About the New Brunswick Omnibus Survey
For Abacus Data, this release marks an exciting milestone: It’s our first public release from the New Brunswick Omnibus Survey, part of our ongoing investment in Atlantic Canada. With offices in Ottawa, Toronto, and Halifax, and with Kelly Bennett leading our Atlantic practice, Abacus Data continues to deliver high-quality, public opinion and marketing research that helps clients and the public understand the attitudes shaping this region’s future.
This research was conducted by Abacus Data through our New Brunswick Omnibus Survey, a new addition to our expanding portfolio of Atlantic Canadian products. The omnibus is a regularly scheduled survey, conducted in both French and English, with a representative sample of 600 New Brunswick residents (age 18 and over).
The survey was fielded online from October 24 to 30, 2025, using a random sample of panelists drawn from partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure they reflect the province’s population according to the latest census data.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold a strong lead over their political rivals in Ontario. But our latest survey finds that while the Premier remains dominant, there are signs that some voters are beginning to question whether the government is making meaningful progress on key issues.
This survey was conducted just before the Ontario government released its fall economic statement.
The Progressive Conservatives are holding steady at 51% among committed voters. The Liberals are at 23%, down two points since our last survey in October. The NDP sees a four-point bump to 19%, their highest share in several months. The Green Party drops to 3%. Another 4% would vote for other parties.
Voter Pools Suggest PCs Have Slight Edge in Consideration
More than half of voters say they would consider voting PC. This is slightly higher than the Liberals at 50%. Four in ten would consider the NDP. Fewer than 3 in 10 would consider the Green Party.
This shows that while Ford’s party leads comfortably among committed voters, the underlying pools are more competitive. The Liberals and NDP still have considerable room to grow.
PCs Continue to Lead Across Most Regions and Demographics
The PCs lead by a wide margin across all major regions with the exception of Eastern Ontario, where the race is more competitive. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, they are ahead 54% to 24% over the Liberals. In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs hold 55% compared to 17% for the Liberals and 19% for the NDP.
Ford’s party leads among men and women and across every age group. They win 44% among younger voters aged 18 to 29 and over 50% among older Ontarians.
Government Approval Holds Steady but Shows Signs of Softness
Approval of the Ford government sits at 42%, unchanged since October. Disapproval has increased by one point to 33%. Another 21% neither approve nor disapprove.
Approval has been relatively stable for several months, but the trendline suggests it is more plateau than resurgence.
Leader Impressions: Ford Holds Lead, Crombie Still Under Water
Doug Ford continues to be the most positively viewed leader although his personal brand image has softened over the past few months. Forty-two percent of Ontarians have a positive impression of him. Thirty-seven percent have a negative view, giving him a net score of +5.
Marit Stiles is next, with 31% positive and 27% negative, a slight improvement.
Mike Schreiner remains largely undefined, with one in five unsure what to think of him.
Preferred Premier: Ford Still Ahead, But Not Overwhelming
When asked who they would prefer as Premier, 45% choose Doug Ford. Seventeen percent choose Bonnie Crombie. Fifteen percent pick Marit Stiles, and 5% Mike Schreiner. Eighteen percent are unsure.
Ford leads in every region and across most demographics.
Mixed Views on Ford’s Impact
When asked about the impact Doug Ford has had on a range of issues, voters are divided. Most say the Premier has improved Ontario’s ability to stand up for itself. Fewer say he has made the province better when it comes to business climate, education, health care or affordability.
Only 11% believe the Ford government has improved housing affordability. Just 14% say health care is better now than before. Thirty-eight percent say it has gotten worse.
Even among PC supporters, many are not convinced the government is making a difference. Fewer than one in four say the government has improved health care or housing. More say those areas have not changed.
The Upshot
Doug Ford and the PCs remain firmly in the lead in Ontario. But this wave of data shows a few warning signs beneath the surface.
The Premier’s personal numbers continue to slide and his party continues to dominate among older voters and in every region of the province. The Liberals and NDP have yet to break through in a serious way although with the OLP about to start a leadership race, the NDP and Marit Stiles are rising.
But signs of fatigue are emerging. Four in ten voters say it is time for a change. Many PC supporters are lukewarm in their evaluations of the government’s performance on core issues like health care, affordability and jobs.
This survey was conducted just before the release of the Ford government’s fall economic statement. Whether the policies announced this week can reassure voters or shift perceptions remains to be seen.
What is clear is that while the PCs remain in a strong position, there is softness in their support. The potential for movement is real. But as of now, no alternative has fully capitalized
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from November 5 to 6, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, education and region. Totals may not add to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
