Our latest polling on the political mood of Canadians shows that if an election were held today the Liberal Party would garner 43% support, compared to 31% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP. These numbers are in line with our results from July.

On a regional basis, we see the Liberals with an 23-point lead in Ontario, a 22-point lead in Quebec, and an 18-point lead in BC. The Liberals have a 12-point lead among men, and an 11-point lead among women. The Liberals have a substantial lead among all age groups except voters 45-59, where they are effectively tied with the Conservatives.

Among self-described left of centre voters, the Liberals have 56% support, compared to 24% for the NDP.

Among voters who consider themselves centrists, the Liberal Party has 43% support, compared to 29% for the Conservatives and 17% for the NDP.

Among voters on the right, the Conservatives have 66% support, compared to 22% for the Liberals.

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

The Liberal Party lead is built in part on the fact that 47% say they approve of the job the government is doing, compared to 30% who disapprove. This rating has hovered around the 50% mark since the end of 2016.

Approval is the plurality view across all age groups, and in every region except the Prairies. Perhaps most important to the Liberal fortunes is the fact that by a margin of 47% to 24%, those who voted NDP in the last election approve of the job the Trudeau government is doing.

THE ECONOMY

More than two out of three (69%) say they feel the economy is growing today, the highest number we have seen in several years.

A majority in every region, says the economy is growing rather than shrinking, led by particularly positive sentiments in BC (72% growing) Ontario (72% growing) and Quebec (77% growing). In Alberta, where the economy suffered downward pressure due to declining oil prices, we now see a majority (51% growing/46% shrinking) seeing growth in the economy.

Among different partisans, Liberal voters are most likely to say the economy is growing (84%) but 69% of NDP voters and 58% of Conservative voters also feel that way.

When asked how they feel the economy will be in the next six months, our tracking shows an uptick in optimism as well, with 33% saying they expect things will get better, compared to 14% who anticipate a worsening. This net +19 optimism compares to a +3 score last November.

IMPRESSIONS OF PARTY LEADERS

When it comes to views of Prime Minister Trudeau, 47% say they have a positive opinion, compared to 28% who have a negative opinion. These numbers are slightly improved from those we saw as the House of Commons recessed.

For Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, 19% say they have a positive opinion, compared to 18% who have a negative opinion. These numbers are not that dissimilar to those found for Rona Ambrose.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Over the last few months we’ve seen data where the Liberal lead was narrower than it is today – a reminder that opinions can be subject to shifting moods. For the moment, the Liberals continue to enjoy a lead based on positive feelings about Justin Trudeau, positive feelings about the economy, and generally good approval ratings for the Liberal government.

Attentiveness to the controversial Khadr settlement appear to be waning, and our results don’t (at least for the moment) pick up indications that the hotly debated individual corporation tax change proposals have created a backlash. Instead, economic confidence seems to be the prevailing sentiment affecting federal politics.

As they enter the latter half of their mandate the Liberals support is based on generally satisfying the large majority of people who cast a ballot for them, plus about half of those who voted NDP last time.”

According to David Coletto: “Support for the Liberal government and the Prime Minister personally remains quite strong as the government hits the half-way point of its four-year mandate.

The Liberal Party continues to poll well in the three largest provinces and its coalition of supporters is broad encompassing Canadians from across demographic and socio-economic groups.

At the end of the summer, Andrew Scheer remains largely unknown to most people while the Prime Minister remains highly popular despite some high profile and controversial decisions. NDP support is not far off where it landed at the end of the 2015 election but its new leader will face a popular incumbent (for the moment) with substantial leads in key regions of the country.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,512 Canadians aged 18 and over from September 1 to 3, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,514 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight. Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

A solid majority (63%) of Canadians are following the tensions between North Korea and the US closely.  As of the taking of our latest poll (August 11-15) 43% thought it likely that North Korea would launch a missile at the US, 47% that North Korea would launch missiles at South Korea, but even more felt it was likely (69%) that the US would take military action against North Korea.

When asked what they thought the US should do, the vast majority (86%) of Canadians said the US should “step up efforts to arrive at a diplomatic understanding” while only 14% favoured a preventive first strike by the US.   Conservative, Liberal, and New Democrat voters were all pretty much on the same page about this.

Only 7% have a great deal of confidence in President Trump to handle the situation with North Korea, and 17% say they have “some” confidence.  Three-quarters say they have “not very much” (32%) or none at all (44%).  On this point, most Conservative voters (57%) lack confidence in the US President.

Along the same lines, 84% say they think the US President has made the risk of conflict go up, while only 16% feel he has reduced the risk.

When asked what Canada should do, roughly 8 in 10 say we should advocate for increased diplomatic efforts compared to 21% who say we should tell our US allies we will support them if a conflict occurs.  Two-thirds (64%) of Conservatives favour pushing a diplomatic solution.

If North Korea were to attack South Korea, half (51%) think the US should get involved in defending the South, while 31% are on the fence and 18% would oppose such action. Only 34% think Canada should come to the aid of South Korea in such an eventuality, while 37% take the opposite view and 29% say “maybe, maybe not”.

 UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “The US tensions with North Korea have been drawing a lot of attention among Canadians and many people are of the view that President Trump is making a dangerous situation more dangerous.  The profound lack of confidence in the US President to handle such a critical risk is unusual and another signal of how dismayed most Canadians are at the way that Mr. Trump is approaching his responsibilities.

The fact that Conservatives are not hugely different from Liberal or NDP voters on these questions suggests that the “Trump base” in Canada may be touching a new low, somewhere in the range of 15% (That’s the number of Conservatives who express confidence in the US leader).

In the event that a first strike conflict is initiated by the US, it is hard to imagine, based on these numbers, that Canadians will feel powerfully motivated to support our longstanding ally unless confidence in Mr. Trump improves.”

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 11 to 15, 2017 A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 1,500 is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

In our latest nationwide survey, we wanted to see what thoughts and images were more associated with Canada’s three largest political brands.  To do this, we offered people a series of 20 forced choices, far from an exhaustive list of possible variables, but enough to observe some powerful differences.

This is the first of a few reports we will release using this data.

In a nutshell, here’s what we found:

— The 10 strongest associations with the Conservative Party were “old fashioned”, “proud of Canada” “oil” “tough on crime” “favour some over others” doesn’t care about you” spends on the wrong things” “elitist”, “does not trust people” and “economically savvy”.

— The 10 strongest for the Liberal Party were: “diplomacy” “treat men and women equally” “proud of Canada” “cares about the environment” “projects positive image of Canada” “young at heart” “future oriented” “individual freedom” “renewable energy” and “hopeful”.

— 8 of 10 strongest for the NDP were the same as for the Liberal Party. The items that were different: the NDP did not have “future oriented” or “young at heart” but instead had “down to earth” and “trust people”.

— Comparing the three parties shows that on “VALUES YOU SHARE” 57% associated this with the Liberals, compared to 52% for the NDP and 46% for the Conservatives.

— Interestingly, on “CARES ABOUT INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM” v “GOVERNMENT LAWS TO RESTRICT FREEDOM”. Quite a few more people associated “freedom” with the Liberals (68%) and the NDP (64%) than the Conservatives (48%)

— When it came to “ECONOMICALLY SAVVY”, the Conservatives (55%) were better positioned than the Liberals (47%) and NDP (39%)

To help isolate the differences between the Conservatives and the Liberals, and the Liberals and the NDP, the following charts are revealing.

— Compared to the Liberals, the Conservatives are seen as more old fashioned, past oriented, militaristic, oil oriented, male oriented, less concerned about the environment, equality, or individual freedom, less inclined to trust people, and tougher on crime. The Liberals are more associated with young at heart, a future orientation, gender equality, equality and freedom more generally, concern for the environment, diplomacy over militarization, and projecting a positive image of Canada.

— Comparing the Liberals and the NDP, unsurprisingly, differences are more muted. The Liberals are seen as somewhat younger at heart, future oriented, while the NDP are seen as a bit more down to earth.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Party brand images build up over time and are affected by the choices leaders make but also help inform leaders of the choices they need to consider in order to expand their pool of potential voters.  For the Liberals, the numbers provide a reminder of the need to constantly make the case for their economic policies and to avoid suggestions of elitism.  For the NDP, the striking news here is the degree to which the party can be seen as aging and old-fashioned.

For the Conservatives, the findings are clearer and inescapably point to the fact that the things which make their core vote most enthusiastic may often be the things that repel other voters.  On gender equality, the environment and energy, and respect for individual freedoms, the Conservative brand finds itself somewhat isolated from a fair number of voters.

Perhaps the most disconcerting signal for the CPC is the fact that in a world where the future seems to be one of constant change and adaptation, their is party not, for the moment anyway, convincingly forward looking.”

According to David Coletto: “The Liberal brand, in trouble only a few years ago, is today the strongest with more people reflecting positive images onto it. It’s a forward-thinking, youthful, and hopeful party.

In contrast, the Conservative brand is under far more stress. Seven in ten feel it is old fashioned, far more associate it with oil than with renewable energy, and more describe it elitist than the other two major parties. It seems to me the Conservative Party needs to rethink its brand and approach in much the same way the UK Conservatives evolved after 2005 when it failed to beat the Blair led Labour Party for the third consecutive time. This is especially important given the immense generational change occurring in the electorate.

If I’m the NDP, these results point to a party with many brand strengths but few differentiators with its primary competitor, the Liberal Party. How the NDP differentiates itself should be the focus every NDP leadership candidate should consider at it plans how to take on Mr. Trudeau and the Liberals in 2019.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 4 to 7, 2017. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of over 500,000 Canadians.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online surveys.   The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 2,000 is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABACUS DATA INC.

We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and value-added insight.  Our team combines the experience of our Chairman Bruce Anderson, one of Canada’s leading research executives for two decades, with the energy, creativity and research expertise of CEO David Coletto, Ph.D.

‘What Abacus Does’ is a companion piece to some of the public facing opinion research we post. It looks at the research through a practical lens and gives a sneak peek into the type of work we do to unearth the strategic implications and “so what” of our data for clients, causes we support, and lunch room arguments.

When strategic communications advisors and pollsters want to understand the goings-on of the public sphere, they will often feed a number of high profile issues with significant media play into a survey. They design it in a way to get at a sense of what Canadians are paying attention to, and how they feel the relevant party – in this case the government – is doing on these measures. In its simplest form the output of such a survey might look something like this, from our latest poll.

While looking at the data this way gives us an overview of what Canadians are paying attention to and feel about issues, our strategic advisors responsible for giving our clients the “so what” of the data often look at synthesizing this information in a different way. Something that looks more like this:

Here, we can see where each issue lies on an axis of both attention (% who say they are following the issue somewhat, down and up) and performance (% who rate the government as good or acceptable, left to right). In other words, an issue located at the bottom right is one few are paying attention to but many are impressed with, an issue at the top left is one where many are paying attention and see performance as lacking.

Immediately we see three things:

1. The government gets high marks on NAFTA and the G20, but Canadians aren’t as engaged on those issues.

2. Jobs and climate change are highly engaging issues on which the federal government is performing well

3. The decision to settle the civil case with Omar Khadr and housing affordability are potential areas of vulnerability for the government. People are paying attention to these issues but the government is not seen to be performing as well on them.

Now, by way of the Liberals’ steady sailing in the horse race we can infer that these problem areas aren’t driving vote intention yet, despite strong and polarizing views. But we can say these are areas where the government may want to be more cautious.

Issues of the day don’t impact vote intention until they suddenly do, and issues with high attention and low perceived performance especially so.

For now, on the Khadr front at least, part of the reason for a lack of traction could be because opposition to the government’s handling is concentrated among Conservative voters (i.e. people already opposed to the government). We could also hypothesize from the impact chart that strong perceived performance on jobs, the economy and climate change are counteracting vulnerability on Khadr, at least for the time being.

For more information and analysis on the public opinion dynamics of Trump, the economy, and the Khadr file, and for information on survey methodology, please see two companion releases found here & here.

And if you have any questions about research and the strategic advice we can provide, feel free to reach out to me or our team.

Ihor is Head of Operations and Project Delivery at Abacus Data. He specializes in connecting abstract numbers and conceptual findings to real, tangible tactics that get results. You can reach him at ihor@abacusdata.ca.