Alberta Politics: UCP and NDP tied as undecideds rise
March 6, 2023
Last week, Abacus Data surveyed 700 adults living in Alberta and asked them several questions about their views and intentions as the provincial election approaches.
Here are the key takeaways from this research:
1 – The UCP and NDP are tied province-wide as undecideds increase.
35% of Albertans would vote UCP (down 5), 35% would vote NDP (down 3) and 5% would vote for the Alberta Party. 22% say they are undecided, up 6-points since February.
2- The UCP and NDP are tied among committed respondents – 45% to 45%.
The UCP vote share among committed voters is down 2 while the NDP vote share is consistent with our survey last month.
3 – The NDP and UCP are statistically tied in Calgary, the NDP is ahead by 19-points in Edmonton, while the UCP leads by 14-points outside of the two largest cities.
4- The NDP lead among those under 45 and women while the UCP is ahead among those 45 and old and men.
5 – There’s been a big increase in former UCP supporters who now say they are undecided. Among 2019 UCP voters, 65% say they would vote UCP today, 12% would vote NDP, and 20% are currently undecided.
6 – The percentage of Reluctant UCP voters – those who voted UCP in 2019 but today say they are supporting another party or are undecided – is up 3-points while those who are loyal to the UCP are down 3 percentage points.
7 – Impressions of Danielle Smith are largely unchanged from last month. 37% have a positive view of the Premier while 40% have a negative impression. For NDP leader Rachel Notley, her net favourable has declined. 39% have a favourable view of the NDP leader (down 4) while her negatives are up 2 to 39%.
THE UPSHOT
Since last month, the political landscape in Alberta hasn’t changed much but we do see a noticeable shift back towards the undecided category for many past UCP voters.
The NDP vote share is holding steady but we continue to see volatility among past UCP voters. Those Reluctant UCPers will decide the outcome of the provincial election.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 700 Alberta adults from March 2 to 4, 2023.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT DAVID COLETTO
David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
