Abacus Data Poll: Optimism reaches a multi-year high as Canadians ease into summer. Carney government maintains strong support, but vote choice remains tight.
From June 26 to July 2, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. Fielded after the House of Commons rose for the summer and the passage of Bill C-5, this latest wave captures public opinion at a moment of political calm and relative confidence. What emerges is a Canadian electorate growing more optimistic, generally supportive of the federal government, and still sharply divided in vote intention.
Direction of the Country
A defining feature of this wave is the rise in optimism. Four in ten Canadians (40%) now believe the country is heading in the right direction, the highest level recorded in over three years and up from 36% in our last survey two weeks earlier. While a plurality (44%) still feel things are off on the wrong track, this marks a continuation of a slow but steady trend toward a more positive national outlook. In contrast, views about the broader world remain deeply pessimistic, with only 14% feeling good about its trajectory, and just 13% saying the same about the United States.
Drilling into subgroup differences reveals that optimism is most pronounced among Liberal voters (60%), those living in Atlantic Canada (51%), and those aged 60 and over (45%). Men (44%) are more likely than women (35%) to say the country is on the right path. Regionally, 36% of Quebecers, 41% of Ontarians, and only 27% of those in SAlberta believe the country is headed in the right direction.
What’s Keeping Canadians Up at Night?
Canadians’ attention over the Canada Day weekend was clearly focused on global instability. When asked what was keeping them up at night, respondents most commonly mentioned “war,” “Trump,” “Iran,” and “tariffs.” The word cloud generated by these responses underscores a population still grappling with macro-level anxieties—international conflict, volatile trade dynamics, and an unpredictable American political environment. While domestic economic pressures remain ever-present, global turmoil looms large in the Canadian psyche.
Top Issues: Shared Concern, Divergent Priorities
On domestic priorities, the top issues facing the country remain largely unchanged. The rising cost of living dominates at 59%, followed by Donald Trump and his administration (46%), the economy (38%), housing (37%), and healthcare (32%). But the differences by partisanship and age are striking and tell a story about the political divide in Canada today.
Among Liberal supporters, Trump ranks as the second most important issue (60%), just behind affordability. They are also more likely to prioritize healthcare (37%) and climate change (18%) than Conservative supporters. For Conservative voters, the picture is different. Cost of living is top (63%), followed by the economy (46%), housing (35%), Trump (33%), and then immigration (30%). The gap on climate change is striking (18% among Liberals compared with 4% for Conservatives).
Age plays a critical role in shaping priorities. Younger Canadians under 45 are far more likely to cite housing (45%), job security (20%), and inequality (16%) than their older counterparts. Meanwhile, Canadians over 45 place more emphasis on healthcare (39%) and Donald Trump (55%). These generational distinctions suggest that while cost of living is a shared concern, the political pathways to addressing that anxiety diverge significantly depending on life stage.
Carney Government Approval Remains High
Approval of the federal government remains steady and in highly positive territory. Today, 52% of Canadians say they approve of the job the Carney government is doing, compared with only 25% who disapprove. These numbers are virtually unchanged from our last survey and continue a strong trend since Mark Carney became Prime Minister in March. Carney’s government is still in the political honeymoon phase, but what’s noteworthy is how long that honeymoon is lasting and how broad its base of support is.
Regionally, the Carney government enjoys majority approval in every part of the country except Alberta. In Ontario, 55% approve of the federal government, as do 52% in Quebec, 59% in Atlantic Canada, and 46% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Even in Alberta, often the epicentre of federal Liberal government criticism, a plurality of 40% say they approve of the government’s performance a noteworthy number in a province where federal Liberals have long struggled to gain traction. Men (54%) are slightly more supportive than women (50%), and among Canadians over 60, 58% give the government high marks.
Leader Impressions: Carney’s Strength, Poilievre’s Polarization
As with government approval, personal impressions of Prime Minister Carney remain strong and consistent. Nationally, 49% have a positive impression of him, compared to 28% who view him negatively, resulting in a net favourability score of +21. These numbers have held steady since the election and reflect a leader with broad, but not universal, appeal.
What’s particularly important to note is that Carney’s net positive scores extend across almost every demographic and regional subgroup. His favourability is +24 in Ontario, +24 in Atlantic Canada, and a striking +34 in Quebec. He is slightly more liked among men than women (+23 vs. +21), and gets his highest scores among Baby Boomers (+33). Only in Alberta (-10) and among Conservative voters (-38) does Carney’s net impression dip into negative territory and even among those Canadians, the numbers are not that bad.
The impression of Pierre Poilievre presents a very different picture. While 39% of Canadians say they have a positive impression of the Conservative leader, 43% say they view him negatively, resulting in a net favourability of -4.
More important than the topline number, however, is the polarization it reflects. Among Conservative supporters, Poilievre’s net favourability is high at +77. But among Liberal voters, it is -65. Among NDP supporters, it is -63. Regionally, his strongest numbers come from Alberta (+25) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (+15), but he scores in negative territory everywhere else, including -25 in Quebec and -17 in Atlantic Canada.
The generational differences in views towards Poilievre are also noteworthy. Among those under 45, he has a net favourable impression. The opposite is true among older Canadians.
This level of polarization poses both opportunities and limits for Poilievre. His base is solid and enthusiastic. But outside of that core, he faces considerable resistance. Unless he can reshape perceptions among non-Conservative supporters, his pathway to majority support will depend on the erosion of the Liberal coalition more than expansion of his own.
Trump: Universally Unpopular
For contrast, impressions of former U.S. President Donald Trump are dramatically worse than either Canadian leader. Just 13% of Canadians have a favourable opinion of Trump, while 76% view him negatively yielding a net favourability of -63. Trump is seen far more negatively in Canada than any domestic political figure, and his continued influence on American politics remains a potent factor in shaping Canadian public opinion.
Desire for Change Continues to Erode
Perhaps the most remarkable shift captured in this wave is the continued decline in the public’s desire for change. Today, only 39% of Canadians say it is time for a change and believe there is a good alternative to the Liberals. That’s down from a high of 56% in December (when Trudeau hadn’t yet announced his departure), when just 11% believed the Liberals deserved to be re-elected. Now, 35% believe the Liberals should be re-elected, while another 26% say change is needed but don’t see a viable alternative. The “time for change” sentiment has not disappeared, but it is softening—and the government’s growing re-elect number suggests that Carney continues to shift some of the deep fatigue Canadians felt with the Liberal brand under Justin Trudeau.
Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals Hold the Advantage
Turning to accessible voter pools, the Liberals now lead the Conservatives by five points nationally—58% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 53% who say they would consider voting Conservative. In Quebec, the Liberal accessible pool is even larger (60%), and in Ontario it sits at 60% as well. The NDP’s accessible pool remains historically low at just 36%, reflecting their ongoing struggle to gain relevance in the current federal dynamic.
Vote Intention: Tight as Ever
Despite these strong fundamentals, vote intention remains stubbornly tight. If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Liberal, while 40% would vote Conservative—a statistically insignificant one-point difference. The NDP is at 9%, the Bloc at 7%, and the Greens and People’s Party both at 2%. Among those certain to vote, the numbers are virtually identical. This suggests that while Canadians like what they see so far from the Carney government, it has not yet been enough to shift partisan allegiance among those who voted Conservative in April’s election.
Looking deeper into vote intention by region, the Liberals lead in Quebec (42% to 31%) and Atlantic Canada (47% to 37%), are neck-and-neck in Ontario (44% Liberal, 43% Conservative), and trail badly in Alberta (60% Conservative, 27% Liberal) and the Prairies (54% to 33%). In British Columbia, the race is also tight, with the Conservatives slightly ahead at 41% compared to 39% for the Liberals, and 14% for the NDP.
Demographic Trends: Age, Gender, and Education
The age divide in vote intention remains a defining feature of Canada’s political landscape. Among voters aged 18 to 29, the Conservatives head by 5, with the NDP in third at 12%. Among those 30 to 44, the same split hold. However, among Canadians aged 45 to 59, the Liberals take a five-point lead (42% to 37%), and among those 60 and over, the lead grows to seven points (45% Liberal to 38% Conservative).
There are also meaningful differences by gender and education. Among women, the Liberals lead by four points (41% to 37%), while among men, the Conservatives are ahead by two (42% to 40%). Education continues to be one of the strongest predictors of vote: among university-educated Canadians, the Liberals lead 49% to 35%; among those with only a high school education, the Conservatives are ahead 44% to 37%.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As Parliament rises for the summer and Canadians turn their attention to barbecues, travel, and the (hopeful) return of some normalcy, this wave of data shows a country feeling more optimistic than it has in years. The Carney government continues to earn strong marks, with a majority approving of its performance, and a growing share believing the Liberals deserve re-election.
Earlier this week, we released new polling on how Canadians feel about the government’s progress on its seven priorities. It provides more complexity to how people feel about what the government is focused on.
At the same time, Mark Carney’s personal brand is proving to be a key asset, broadly appealing across regions, generations, and even to some outside the Liberal base. But the race remains tight. Goodwill has not yet translated into vote switching. Conservatives remain highly motivated and unified behind Pierre Poilievre, even as he struggles to broaden his appeal. For now, the electorate appears content to give Carney a chance to deliver on his agenda.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 26 to July 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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