Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 19 as Liberal vote share rises at the expense of the NDP
From February 5 to 11, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,000 adults.
For this survey, we did something a bit different when it comes to our assessment of vote intention. We used an experimental randomized split sample approach and asked a random third of our sample one of three ballot questions. All of the other questions in our tracking were asked in the usual way.
We find that the horserace continues to tighten. At the same time, we see an increase in those open to voting Liberal and a decrease in the Conservative accessible voter pool. Those believing the Liberals deserve to be re-elected is up as are negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre.
Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops as Liberals gain 7 points in a month.
If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 27% would vote Liberal, and 15% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 7% nationally, while the Greens are at 3% and the People’s Party at 2%. Since our last survey two weeks ago, the Conservatives are up 3, the Liberals up 5 while the NDP is down 3.
We doubled checked and ran another survey
Given how these results differ from some recent polls, we conducted a rapid survey with our core political questions from February 11 to 12, 2025 with an entirely new sample to see whether this survey was an outlier or different than what we would find if we did another survey. The results of that survey are all within the margin of error of the earlier survey. It finds the Conservatives with 45%, the Liberals at 25%, and the NDP at 17%.
Now back to the larger survey conducted from February 5 to 11:
Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows slightly, although not as much as it has in the past suggesting that Liberal voters are becoming more engaged and enthusiastic about voting. Today, the Conservatives have 48% among the most likely voters compared with 26% for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15%.
Regionally, the Conservative vote share is down in Atlantic while holding fairly steady in BC and Ontario. In Quebec, we have the BQ at 34%, the Conservatives at 29%, and the Liberals at 28%. Note, due to the split sample approach, the regional sample sizes are much smaller.
When we combine B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada and look at the trend over time, we find the Liberal share in those provinces rising substantially over the past month.
Today, 30% would vote Liberal in those provinces up from 22% in mid-Jauary compared while 46% in those provinces would vote Conservative. This is the highest Liberal vote share in those provinces since we started tracking these three provinces combined a year ago.
When we compare current vote intention with past recalled vote (in 2021), we find that more than 89% of those who voted Conservative in 2021 say they will vote Conservative again. That is still a very high retention rate. In contrast, only 60% of past Liberal and NDP supporters say they would vote for their respective parties today (although the Liberals are doing better at bringing home past supporters than a month ago when it was 50%). The NDP is losing about equal shares of its past support to the Conservatives and Liberals, while 15% of past Liberal supporters say they would vote Conservative today.
The retention of past Conservative vote and the continued attraction of past Liberal and NDP voters is why we continue to see the Conservatives still well ahead of the other parties.
Carney vs. Freeland: Who performs best?
To assess the potential impact of either Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland becoming Liberal leader, we asked the other two thirds of our sample how they would vote with their and the other party leaders named in the ballot question (our usual ballot question does not include party leader names).
We think this is a more effective way of testing the potential effect of the leadership change than asking a similar question later in the survey because it ensures the respondent is asked the question cold, without having been asked how they would vote in another scenario.
This approach finds Mark Carney would perform substantially better than Chrystia Freeland.
When Mark Carney is named as Liberal leader and voters are asked how they would vote in a spring election, 45% would vote Conservative, 28% Liberal and 12% NDP. When Freeland is the leader, the Conservative lead is much larger, with the Conservatives at 45% and the Liberals at 21%. The NDP does much better with Freeland as leader at 20%.
This exercise suggests that the Conservative vote at the moment is resilient to whoever is leader of the Liberals, but that the NDP is far more likely to lose support with Carney rather than Freeland as leader.
Other Core Measures
Beyond vote intention, we also have the benefit of seeing whether our measures are shifting. Often times, it is these measures that are leading indicators of a future shift in vote intention.
In the case of the direction of country, we see no change in the overall mood of the country. 24% think the country is headed in the right direction, marginally higher than two weeks ago.
The federal government’s approval rating has also improved. Today 27% of Canadians approve while 56% disapprove. Disapproval is down 8 points since mid January and is lower than at any point in 2024.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also marginally improved. 23% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister compared with 58% who have a negative view for a net favourable of -35.
Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have become more negative. Those with a negative impression of Pierre Poilievre have reached a new high in our tracking with 42% have a negative view compared with 39% who have a positive view. Positive impressions are fairly static but his negatives are 6-points higher than they were at the end of 2024.
To reinforce how important leader impressions are to vote intention, 85% of those with a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre say they will vote Conservative whereas only 5% of those with a negative impression say they will vote Conservative.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s image continues to be more negative than in the past. 29% hold a positive impression, while 40% have a negative view for a net score of -11.
Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative and have become more negative since the tariff threats and his musings about Canada becoming the 51st state. Almost 7 in 10 Canadians have a negative opinion of him, while 18% view him positively. President Trump’s negatives have increased 11-points since early December.
Impressions of Trump are almost entirely negative among Liberal (84%) and NDP (91%) supporters. But among Conservative supporters, 31% have a positive impression of Trump, 17% neutral, and 48% negative.
Desire for Change Softens
One of the bigger shifts we see is in those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Today, 19% say the Liberals deserve another mandate, up 8 points since mid-January and up 3 since our last wave. In contrast, 50% continue to say they want a change in government and feel there is a good alternative. That has stablized after a drop over the past few months.
Among those who want change and feel there’s a good alternative, 62% would vote Conservative, 15% NDP, and 6% Liberal. 7% are undecided.
Among those who want change but don’t think there’s a good alternative, 23% would vote Conservative, 23% Liberal, 12% NDP, and 11% BQ. 25% are undecided.
Shift in Accessible Voter Pools
Perhaps the biggest shift in our tracking comes when we ask people whether they would consider voting for each federal party.
Today, 50% of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, down 1 since last wave and down 5 since mid-January. In contrast, the Liberal accessible voter pool is up 4 in two weeks and has risen 10 points since mid-January. 39% are open to voting NDP and 28% are open to voting Green. In Quebec, the BQ’s accessible voter pool is down 5 points since late January.
Who is going to win the next election?
About half of Canadians continue to believe the Conservatives are going to win the next election but it is down 10-points since mid-January. In contrast, 20% think the Liberals are going to win, up 3 from last wave and up 10 since mid-January.
The Issues: Donald Trump is now the #2 Issue in Canada
Finally, we see a big change in the top issues that voters say matter to them. The cost of living remains in the top spot (62%) but it is down 4 points from two weeks ago. Donald Trump and his administration has jumped 16-points into second with 42% saying it is one of their top three issues. Healthcare, housing and the economy roundout the top four.
When we ask people who selected an issue in their top 3 which party they feel is best able to handle that issue, the Conservatives have big leads on immigration, crime, the economy, the cost of living, job security and unemployment, and housing. They are tied with the Liberals and NDP on healthcare.
The Liberals have a 9-point among those who say Trump and his administration is a top issue – an issue that has grown in salience over the past few weeks. The Liberals also lead the two other main national parties on climate change.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “There is clear evidence in our polling that the opinion environment in Canada is shifting. While the cost of living remains in focus for most people, Donald Trump has become the second more cited top issue and has come to define so much of what people are talking about. With Justin Trudeau’s exit only a few weeks away and the spectre of more tariffs possibility coming, Canadians are increasingly asking themselves which political choice is best able to deal with the impact and consequence of Trump’s threatening posture towards Canada.
However, we do not see a competitive political environment. The Conservatives continue to have a large lead in vote intention and while Pierre Poilievre’s negatives have risen, far more people have a positive impression of him than any other leader. When we ask Canadians about their views towards Mark Carney, he is viewed more favourably than negatively with 34% saying they have a positive view and 17% with a negative one. However, he also remains largely undefined in people’s minds and so there is still a lot we don’t know about how people will react to him once they get to know him better.
But it is clear that the mindset of much of the public has shifted. Older Canadians, especially Baby Boomers, are fully engaged in the drama being created by Donald Trump. Boomers, and those with higher levels of education seem to be shifting their political preferences more than other Canadians at this point. Whether it is because they are paying closer attention to the news, or whether because they feel more threatened by Trump, they are ripe for persuasion by the Liberals.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this poll is the weakness of the NDP and Jagmeet Singh. We have consistently measured the NDP in a narrow band between 17% and 20% for the past three years. But only in the last two weeks have we seen their vote share drop to its lowest level in our tracking. And when we include Carney’s name into the mix, their vote drops even further to 12%.
Overall, our read of the opinion landscape still favours the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. They have managed to hold onto most of their past supporters while still converting a sizeable portion of Liberal and NDP voters. Unless their voter coalition splinters, it will be hard of their opponents to make significant gains beyond what we have measured thus far.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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