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United Conservatives poised for victory in a very close Alberta election: Abacus Data Poll
Analyzing the final poll of an election is both an exciting and anxiety-inducing exercise, especially when the election is close. Throughout the pre-campaign and campaign periods in Alberta, I’ve tried to offer a deeper understanding of what’s going on in the province, starting with our first survey back in December. That survey suggested that Danielle […]
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Abacus Poll: UCP leads NDP in Alberta with one week to go.
After the leaders’ debate last Thursday, we launched our second last survey of the campaign to gauge what impact the debate and campaign may be having on voting intentions. The survey was conducted from May 19 to 22, 2023, and surveyed 1,507 eligible voters in Alberta online. In this report, I specifically highlight the results […]
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NDP and UCP Statistically Tied in Alberta
Over the weekend we released a new poll that found the NDP taking a lead over the UCP. Several other polls have been released or leaked which have found varying results – from a large UCP lead to a large NDP lead. So I wanted to verify and update the province-wide picture and conducted a […]
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The NDP takes the lead in Alberta
With just over two weeks to go in the Alberta provincial election, a new survey of 885 eligible voters in Alberta by Abacus Data finds the Alberta NDP jumping ahead of the UCP after several months of near or complete deadlock in vote intentions between the two parties. In this report, I’ll share results from […]
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Alberta Politics: The Issues & Who Albertans Trust Most on Them
Yesterday, we released the results of our pre-election Alberta survey looking at the horserace. The UCP and NDP are tied province-wide with the UCP slightly ahead in Calgary. Today, we share results on questions exploring public impressions of the top issues and which party they trust most to deal with them. Here’s what we found: […]
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UCP and NDP tied as the provincial election is set to kick off
As the start of the Alberta provincial election approaches, Abacus Data conducted a comprehensive province-wide survey of 1,000 eligible voters from April 21 to 25 to understand the dynamics of public opinion in the province and to track questions previously asked in our surveys. Note that this survey was conducted prior to the Calgary event […]
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Alberta Politics: UCP and NDP tied as undecideds rise
Last week, Abacus Data surveyed 700 adults living in Alberta and asked them several questions about their views and intentions as the provincial election approaches. Here are the key takeaways from this research: 1 – The UCP and NDP are tied province-wide as undecideds increase. 35% of Albertans would vote UCP (down 5), 35% would […]
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Alberta Politics: UCP takes the lead as many Reluctant UCPers come home
At the end of last year, I shared our first deep dive into the Alberta political opinion environment in the lead-up to this year’s provincial election. That survey found the NDP leading the UCP by 9 points among decided voters with 25% undecided overall. Our latest survey – conducted from February 1 to 6 – […]
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Alberta Politics Deep Dive: Notley’s NDP leads Smith and the UCP by 8 but a core group of “reluctant” UCP voters will likely decide the election
Earlier this week I was in Calgary speaking to a business group about the political environments in Canada and Alberta. I shared some data from a new survey Abacus Data completed last week exploring the public mood as well as political opinions and perceptions. The data in this briefing comes from an online survey of […]