Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 26 as Liberal leadership election kicks off
Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from January 9 to 14, 2025 and interviewed 1,500 Canadian adults.
Vote Intention: Conservatives Maintain a Strong Lead
If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 20% would vote Liberal, and 19% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 8% nationally, while the Greens are at 4% and the People’s Party at 3%, with no measurable support going to other parties.
Compared to our last update (January 9), the Conservative vote share has dipped by 1 point, while Liberal support remains unchanged. The NDP has edged up by 1 point, and the Greens have also inched upward by 1 point. Despite the slight decline, the Conservatives continue to hold a substantial lead—26 points ahead of the Liberals.
Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows: support for the Conservatives increases to 49%, the Liberals drop to 18%, and the NDP sits at 20%, reflecting a 3-point boost for the Conservatives and a 2-point turnout suppression for the Liberals relative to the overall committed voter pool. BQ support among these likely voters reaches 10%, the Greens hold at 3%, the People’s Party stands at 2%, and less than 1% indicate support for another party.
Regionally, the Conservatives lead in every region or province except for Quebec where the BQ is well ahead of the Conservatives in second and the Liberals in third. In Ontario, 50% of adults in that province would vote Conservative, with the Liberals at 23% and the NDP at 18%.
The Conservatives hold a clear lead among all age groups, though the degree of that lead varies. Among younger Canadians aged 18 to 29, 43% would vote Conservative, 21% Liberal, and 22% NDP, with smaller shares for the Greens (6%), Bloc Québécois (4%), and People’s Party (4%).
Canadians aged 30 to 44 also tilt towards the Conservatives at 46%, followed by the Liberals (21%) and NDP (21%). Again, minor parties share the remainder, with 6% for the BQ, 4% for the Greens, and 3% for the People’s Party.
For those aged 45 to 59, Conservative support climbs to 49%, while 15% back the Liberals and 22% support the NDP. The BQ stands at 9%, the Greens at 3%, and the People’s Party at 3% in this age group.
Among those aged 60 and over, 47% intend to vote Conservative, compared with 22% for the Liberals and 13% for the NDP. In this older cohort, 11% would vote BQ, 4% Green, and 2% People’s Party. While support for the Conservatives remains highest among Canadians 45 to 59, the party maintains a strong lead in every age bracket.
The Conservatives continue to lead among both men and women, though the size of that lead varies by gender. Among men, 51% say they would vote Conservative, while 17% would support the Liberals, and 16% back the NDP. Another 9% would vote Bloc Québécois, 4% for the Greens, and 3% for the People’s Party.
Among women, 42% indicate they would vote Conservative, followed by a tie between the Liberals and the NDP at 23% each. Support for the Bloc Québécois stands at 6% among women, with 4% opting for the Greens and 2% for the People’s Party.
We also see the Conservatives leading across all levels of education, though the gap narrows among those with a university degree. Among Canadians with a high school education or less, 48% would vote Conservative, 18% Liberal, and 15% NDP, with the remaining support split among the Greens (6%), Bloc Québécois 9%), and People’s Party (3%).
Those with some college education or a college diploma show a similar Conservative advantage at 48%, with 16% opting for the Liberals and 19% backing the NDP. The BQ garners 10% among college-educated voters, while the Greens and People’s Party each receive support from fewer than 5%.
Among university-educated Canadians, Conservative support declines slightly to 43%, while the Liberals rise to 24% and the NDP to 22%. The Bloc Québécois stands at 4%, and the Greens and People’s Party each attract around 3% support among this group.
Direction of the Country
When asked whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, only 24% of Canadians believe things are going well, while 64% think the country is on the wrong track. These results remain near the lower end of our historical tracking, indicating a persistent sense of unease about the nation’s current direction. Canadians also express heightened pessimism about global affairs: only 15% see the world as heading in the right direction, while 73% believe it is off on the wrong path. Attitudes toward the United States mirror this negativity, with 20% feeling the U.S. is moving in the right direction compared to 67% who say it is on the wrong track. Overall, these findings underscore widespread concern both about Canada’s domestic trajectory and international conditions.
Top Issues
When asked to name the three most important issues facing Canada today, the rising cost of living dominates, cited by 67% of respondents. Healthcare stands at 40%, while housing affordability and accessibility sits at 38%. The economy is close behind at 37%, followed by immigration at 28%. Notably, 26% mention Donald Trump and his administration, a figure that has continued to rise, whereas only 15% name climate change and the environment despite recent wildfires around Los Angeles. Crime and public safety, inequality and poverty, and job security and unemployment also rank in the double digits, while concerns about China and Russia, Indigenous reconciliation, and Chinese election interference remain relatively low. Overall, pocketbook issues continue to be the most urgent, reflecting the economic and financial worries on most Canadians’ minds.
Canadians continue to hold predominantly negative views of Justin Trudeau. Only about one in five Canadians (around 20%) say they have a positive impression of him, while approximately 64% express a negative view. This represents a net score of around -44, essentially unchanged from earlier this month. The announcement of his resignation as Liberal leader has done little so far to shift people’s feelings about him.
Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remain divided. Around 41% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, compared to roughly 40% who feel negatively. While his overall image is not as sharply negative as Trudeau’s, and he is still the only federal leader with a net favourable rating of +2.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s image has suffered in recent weeks. Around 29% hold a positive impression, while roughly 42% say they have a negative view, giving him a net score of about -13. This marks the highest level of unfavourability recorded for Singh in our tracking, reflecting a gradual erosion of his once more balanced brand.
Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative. Six in 10 have a negative opinion of him, while 21% view him positively. With Trump set to assume the U.S. presidency again, these numbers underscore a continued wariness among Canadians toward his political style and agenda and a drop in positivity over the last several weeks.
Party Best Able to Handle Top 3 Issues
When asked which party is best able to handle each of the top issues, only those who selected the issue among their top three concerns were polled. The Conservatives maintain a pronounced advantage on economic and “pocketbook” issues.
For instance, among those who say the economy is a key concern, 53% believe the Conservatives are best equipped to tackle it, compared to 13% who pick the Liberals and 11% the NDP. On cost of living, 45% believe the Conservatives have the best plan, followed by 16% for the NDP and 13% for the Liberals.
The gap narrows somewhat on Donald Trump, where 32% think the Conservatives are best positioned to manage issues related to the incoming U.S. President, while 26% choose the Liberals and 9% select the NDP. Although the Conservatives still lead on the Trump file, the margin is smaller than on other key priorities such as crime and immigration, where over 60% say they trust the Conservatives more than any other party.
Turning to each party’s accessible voter pool, 55% of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, the highest among all parties. The NDP’s pool stands at 40%, the Liberals at 38%, and the Greens at 27%. Regionally, the Conservatives do best in Ontario and British Columbia, each over 55%, while in Quebec, only 34% would consider voting Conservative, compared to 52% who would consider the Bloc Québécois.
Notably, among those who voted Liberal in 2021, only 75% say they would still consider the party now, and among current Conservative supporters, virtually all (94%) would continue to consider the Conservatives.
When asked who they believe will win the next election, 62% predict a Conservative victory, up from 61% on January 9 and 50% back in October. Only 10% think the Liberals will come out on top, 7% foresee an NDP win, and 20% remain unsure. This gradual but steady climb in the Conservative number signals growing confidence and recognition that the Conservatives will win the next election. This perception has not impacted support for the party.
Finally, the desire for change continues to loom large over the federal political landscape. Fully 88% believe it is time for change, either because they see a good alternative (52%) or simply want to replace the Liberals despite hesitations about the alternatives (36%). Only 12% think the Liberals deserve another term. Since Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement, his name has been removed from the re-election question, but the overall results have shifted little, indicating negligible impact so far on how Canadians view the Liberals’ electoral prospects.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Liberal leadership race is officially underway, as Chrystia Freeland launches her campaign following Mark Carney’s announcement last Thursday. Whether this contest can capture the public’s attention and reset the narrative remains to be seen, but we will be tracking closely how any leadership momentum might affect voter perceptions.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday is drawing significant focus, with Canadians concerned about whether he will follow through on the tariff threats that have loomed over cross-border relations.
For now, the Conservatives remain in the driver’s seat, outpacing every other party in most demographic groups and across every region outside Quebec. As the leadership race unfolds and the Trump presidency begins, the key questions for the Liberals and other parties revolve around whether they can reshape the political landscape—and win back voters currently leaning so strongly toward the Conservatives.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 9 to January 14, 2025, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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