Research Brief: Federal Liberals well ahead in Toronto

Earlier this week, I finished a represented survey of adults living in the City of Toronto. On that survey, I asked people how they would vote if a federal election was held at the time.

The survey finds the federal Liberals have a commanding lead in the City of Toronto, leading the Conservatives by 17 points. The Liberals get 44% followed by the Conservatives at 27% and the NDP at 18%.

Regionally across the city, the Liberals lead in every former municipality with larger leads in Etobicoke and the Old City of Toronto/East York. The Conservatives are more competitive in Scarborough while the NDP gets its highest support in Old Toronto/East York.

This survey is part of a new quarterly omnibus survey Abacus Data will be doing in Toronto. For more information about our work in Toronto, please get in touch.


The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults living in Toronto from February 3 to 7, 2023.

A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

These partners are typically double optin survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/3.1%, 19 times out 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Toronto’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:

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