Are men and women voting differently this election?
Last week comments from Pierre Poilievre about biological clocks sparked two conversations; one about the validity of these comments for young Canadians, and another about the messenger. Before the election kicked off officially the Conservatives had been performing well among both men and women. Here we dive into how things are playing out in the election campaign thus far.
The results in this release are taken from four surveys conducted since the campaign began. A survey of n=1,487 18+ adults in Canada from March 17th to 20th (Wave 1), a survey of n=1,800 18+ adults in Canada March 24th to 26th (Wave 2), and a survey of n=1,763 18+ adults in Canada March 31st to April 3rd(Wave 3), and n=1,900 18+ adults in Canada April 3rd to 8th (Wave 4).
Vote Intention
Vote intention has shifted towards the Liberals for both men and women since the start of the campaign- it’s the starting points that are different.
At the start of the campaign, the Liberals and Conservatives were tied among women, 31% voting Liberal and 32% Conservative. As the campaign has moved along, support has consistently grown for the Liberals, 2-3 points per week. They now lead at 35%. This vote share has been pulled from the Conservatives, but also from the NDP who’ve dropped 4 points among women since the campaign began.
For men, the shift is similar, but with a different story. At the start of the campaign, the Conservatives led 7-points ahead of the Liberals. Today, they are essentially tied. Unlike women, the growth in Liberal vote has come almost entirely (and continues to come) from Conservatives.
Accessible Voters
Accessible voter pools also differ slightly.
For men, the accessible voter pool looks nearly identical for the Conservatives and Liberals. Its just over 50% for both parties- and both parties have secured about a third of men who say they are considering one party but not the other.
For women, there is a greater preference towards the Liberals. Among women the Liberals have a bigger accessible voter pool overall, but also a larger cohort who say they would vote for the Liberals, but not for the Conservatives.
Leader Likeability
Since the start of the campaign, impressions of Pierre among women have remained stable but negative. Around half have a negative impression of the leader- a third have a positive impression. So far it seems the campaign has had little impact, from a gendered lens at least. On his own, the likeability of Pierre remains consistent.
However, when compared to Carney, these numbers don’t look as promising. At the start of the campaign, Carney was more likeable among women than Poilievre, but now there is also a larger, 10-point difference in positive impressions between the two leaders. 36% have a positive impression of Poilievre, and 46% a positive impression of Carney.
This isn’t just a problem for Poilievre among women. While impressions of the two leaders started out the same in the first week of the campaign, Carney is also becoming more likeable among men. 48% of men have a positive impression, 7-points higher than impressions of Poilievre at the same time, and an 8-point increase in positive impressions since the start of the campaign.
Where Pierre’s biggest problem with women lies is in relatability. Neither federal leader is particularly relatable for men or women, but the gender differences are much more stark for Poilievre.
39% of men say Poilievre understands people like them, among women this is 8 points lower. And 38% of men say Poilievre ‘shares my values’ this drops to 29% among women.
On the other hand, there are some gender differences for Carney as well. While men are more likely to state that he is smart (64% among men, 57% among women), they also find him a lot more fake (34%) and untrustworthy (37%) than women.
It is also worth noting that neither leader is seen as particularly likeable. Less than half say Carney or Poilievre is friendly- and even fewer (only a third) see either leader as compassionate.
Top Issues
For both men and women, this is still very much a cost-of-living election. President Trump also plays an equal role in deciding one’s vote between men and women. There are some differences but they are farther down the list; things like growing the economy, housing affordability, public services and the federal budget deficit and debt. Compared to the deep divide by generation, men and women will largely be voting on the same issues this election.
The Upshot
The Liberal lead is stronger among women than men, but this has largely come from a collapsing NDP vote share, not pulled from the Conservatives. And for now, vote intention looks similar between men and women.
There are however differences in how the leaders are perceived. For Poilievre his challenge is his relatability and women. Women are just a lot less likely to find him relatable than men are- likely why his comments last week have sparked some debate.
But Carney has his own challenges too- for him it is with men who find him less trustworthy and fake. Carney also has a much larger base of Canadians who are neutral- and need more time to form impressions either way.
In the coming weeks of the campaign, it’s Carney’s impressions I will be watching most closely. Aside from being labeled as ‘smart’ there is a lot of wiggle room on the rest of his personality. His performance at the debates and along campaign trail will be formative moments if Canadians are as tuned in as they say they are- and there is still time for impressions to form, and change.
Methodology
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the surveys from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
Wave 1: n=1,487 adults, conducted from March 17th to 20th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.56%, 19 times out of 20.
Wave 2: n=1,800 adults, conducted from March 24th to 26th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.
Wave 3: n=1,763 adults, conducted from March 31st to April 3rd, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.33%, 19 times out of 20.
Wave 4: n=1,900 adults, conducted from April 3rd to 8th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.25%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All surveys were paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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