1 in 2 Canadians Say Immigration Is Harming the Nation, Up 10 Points Since Last Year. What’s Changed?

From October 3 to 9, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults (18+) to gauge their perspectives on immigration and its perceived impacts.

The results reveal a significant shift in sentiment, with a majority now viewing immigration negatively, largely influenced by political affiliations and age.

Concerns extend beyond newcomers, as many Canadians also express concern about domestic migration exacerbating housing shortages and straining public resources and services.

Looking ahead, perceptions of Canada’s ambitious immigration targets also signal rising apprehension among the public. This opinion environments raises questions about whether the “consensus on immigration” is broken and what the impacts will be on political opinions and behaviours and the response by policy makers at all levels of government.

Current Canadian Perspectives on Immigration

Views on immigration continue to shift. Currently, 53% of Canadians view immigration negatively, a trend significantly influenced by political affiliations. 70% of Conservative Party supporters report negative perceptions of immigration, compared to only 27% of Liberal supporters and 37% of NDP supporters. Age also plays a pivotal role; 57% of Canadians aged 45-59 tend to hold more negative views compared to 47% of those aged 18-39.

Concerns about Migration within Canada

Concerns about immigration extend beyond the arrival of newcomers; domestic migration is also a significant source of worry for Canadians. Nearly 58% express apprehension regarding internal migration, with 69% of Conservative supporters and 70% of Bloc Québécois supporters demonstrating the highest levels of concern. Interestingly, younger Canadians aged 18-29 are especially seized around issues related to domestic immigration.

Immigration Targets

Looking ahead, Canada plans to welcome nearly 500,000 new permanent residents in 2024. However, 72% of Canadians believe this target is too ambitious, an increase from 67% in November 2023 and 61% in July 2023. In just over a year, public opinion has shifted from a majoity being resistent to high levels of immigration to a super majority now signally concern. Even more noteworthy, almost half of Canadians now consider the projected number of new immigrants as “way too high,” reflecting a 7-point increase since November and a 10-point rise since July.

The perception that the immigration targets are too high is particularly pronounced among 87% of Conservative supporters, with 75% of those aged 45-59 and 76% of those aged 60 and older expressing similar concerns.

What is driving perceptions about immigration?

Many Canadians now believe that the influx of newcomers is negatively affecting key resources such as housing availability and affordability (73%, up from 69% in November), healthcare access (62%, compared to 53% in November), and social services (59%). These results reflect a scarcity mindset among Canadians, who feel that there are insufficient resources—such as housing, healthcare, and social services—to meet the demands of the growing population, resulting in perceived shortages.

Additionally, perceptions at the community level have worsened over the past year. 60% of Canadians believe that an increasing number of new immigrants negatively impacts traffic congestion (up from 51% in November), while 53% express concerns about crime and public safety (up from 39%), and 42% believe it harms community cohesion (up from 34%). This dynamic shift indicates a growing unease about the implications of immigration on everyday life, as Canadians grapple with perceived negative repercussions of the influx of new immigrants on various aspects of their daily lives.

When looking at key demographics, older Canadians – especially those aged 45-59 and 60 and older – are significantly more likely to believe that new immigrants negatively affect housing affordability, access to healthcare, and social services. Additionally, Conservative supporters are more inclined to think that the arrival of new immigrants has a detrimental impact across all these areas compared to Liberal and NDP supporters.

Does immigration make Canada better or worse off?

Currently, 53% of Canadians believe that immigration is making the country worse off, marking a substantial increase of 10- points since November 2023 and 17-points since July 2023. Supporters of the Conservative Party (60%) and the Bloc Québécois (60%) are notably more likely to hold this view, starkly contrasting with only 29% of Liberal supporters. Interestingly, Canadians aged 18-29 are less inclined to believe that immigration is detrimental compared to those aged 30 and older, highlighting a growing divide in public opinion on immigration and its perceived impact on Canadian society.

Scarcity, not Xenophobia is Driving Resistence to Immigration

Many Canadians identify shortcomings in the current immigration system. 56% note that there is insufficient housing and infrastructure to accommodate the influx of new residents, while 49% believe immigration puts a strain on public services like education and healthcare. Older Canadians (60 and over) are significantly more likely to express these concerns, with 64% stating there isn’t enough housing and 60% indicating that public services are being strained. In contrast, younger Canadians (18-29) are more inclined to view the effects of temporary immigration programs, such as student visas and temporary foreign workers, as out of control (32%). They also express concerns about perceived competition for jobs and resources between immigrants and Canadian citizens, with 31% sharing this sentiment.

Benefits of the Current Immigration System

Despite the criticisms, some Canadians do recognize the benefits of immigration. Specifically, 40% acknowledge that it helps fill gaps in the labour market with skilled workers, while 26% note that it increases cultural diversity and enrichment, and 26% believe it contributes to economic growth and innovation. However, about 3 in 10 Canadians believe there are no benefits at all to immigration.

Liberal supporters are particularly optimistic about the potential of immigration to bolster various sectors, with 48% believing it helps fill gaps in the labor market, 36% seeing it as a contributor to economic growth and innovation, 25% thinking it boosts population growth and sustainability, and 21% feeling it encourages entrepreneurship and new business establishment. Furthermore, young Canadians are more likely to see the benefits of the immigration system, particularly in increasing cultural diversity and enrichment (33%), boosting population growth and sustainability (27%), promoting international connections and trade (22%), and strengthening communities through new perspectives (20%). This highlights a political and generational difference in attitudes toward immigration, with younger Canadians and Liberal supporters remaining more optimistic about its contributions to society and the economy.

Which federal political party is best equipped to address issues with immigration?

When it comes to leadership on immigration issues, 34% of Canadians believe that Pierre Poilievre is the most capable candidate. In contrast, only 16% view Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as best equipped to handle these challenges, while just 14% feel the same about Jagmeet Singh.

This divide in perceptions widens significantly among those concerned about the current level of immigration. Among individuals who believe immigration is negatively impacting the country, 50% see Poilievre as the best candidate to tackle immigration issues, compared to only 5% who support Trudeau and 11% who support Singh. Similarly, among those holding a negative view of immigration, 52% believe Poilievre is best suited to manage this issue, with just 6% favoring Trudeau and 11% favoring Singh.

The Upshot

Over the past year, Canadian attitudes toward immigration have shifted significantly, challenging the idea that immigration is broadly accepted. If any public concensus existed on the benefits of immigration in Canada, it’s clear that concensus is now broken.

Today, a majority of Canadians view immigration negatively, a trend that highlights a scarcity mindset regarding essential resources like housing, healthcare, and social services. Older Canadians are particularly concerned about inadequate housing and the strain on public services, while younger Canadians focus more on issues related to temporary immigration programs and competition for jobs.

Concerns about new immigrants also extend to social challenges, including traffic congestion, crime, and weakened community ties, indicating a growing unease about their impact on daily life. This anxiety isn’t limited to newcomers; many Canadians are worried about domestic migration as well. The movement of people within Canada is exacerbating existing housing shortages, increasing competition for affordable living, and straining access to crucial resources like healthcare and education.

As these attitudes evolve, they carry important implications for the political landscape. Given the growing negative sentiment surrounding immigration, this trend is crucial to note, as immigration policy has the potential to play a large role in the upcoming federal election, which is something we have not seen in Canada in a long time.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from October 3 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24 %, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

BlogCanadian Politics

Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ontario PCs lead by 20 + Opinions on Homeless Encampments and Highway 401

From October 3 to 10, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 997 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we also explore how people feel about Premier Ford’s idea to build a tunnel under the 401 and on homeless encampments across the province.

Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 20 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals

If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 24%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 22%, and the Greens at 7%.  

All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous survey but represents the widest lead for the PCs since we started tracking following the 2022 election.

Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 31 points in the GTHA, by 18 in eastern Ontario, and by 15 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 14.

The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.

They are well ahead among men (21-point lead), lead by 11 among women, and have opened up a 25-point lead among Ontarians aged 60 and over.

Doug Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady over the past two months.

34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (down 2), while negative views are down slightly to 42%, for a net score of -8.

Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -9 (a slight deterioration) and NDP leader Marit Stiles has an even net score (unchanged). For Green Party leader Mike Schreiner, 20% have a positive impression compared with 21% with a negative view (unchanged).

Public Opinion and Perceptions about Homeless Encampments

In this survey, we also asked some questions about what people think about homeless encampments across the province.

84% of Ontarians believe homeless encampments are a problem with 54% thinking they are a big problem. Those in Toronto and southwestern Ontario are more likely to think the issue is a big problem. There’s also a direct relationship between problem perception and age.

When asked which level of government Ontarians believe is most responsible for dealing with homeless encampments, 43% believe the provincial government is most responsible, followed by the federal government at 32% and 1 in 4 who think it’s municipal government responsibility.

Of note, 37% of PC Party supporters think the province is most responsible for dealing with the homeless encampments.

This view is reinforced by the perceptives that most Ontarians (62%) think the provincial government is not doing enough to help municipalities deal with homeless encampments. Another 5% think they are doing more than enough while 17% think they are doing enough.

42% of PC Party supporters don’t think the province is doing enough.

When asked to rate performance of the Prime Minister, Premier, and Mayor of Toronto on handling homeless encampments, few rate any of the three’s performance in a positive way. 63% think Prime Minister Trudeau has done a poor job, 53% rate the Premier’s performance as poor, while 48% rate Mayor Chow’s performance poorly (including 49% in Toronto).

When we ask whether people would support or oppose several possible measures to address the issue, we find broad support for all of them.

Finally, when we ask which approach people would prefer to see taken to address homeless encampments in Ontario, 80% prefer a more compassionate approach while 20% want to see the encampments removed and laws enforced.

Highways 401 & 407

The survey also asked Ontarians their views on two ideas that have been floated by Premier Ford relating to transportation around Toronto.

When the survey was conducted 2 in 3 Ontarians were aware of the Premier’s announcement to conduct a feasibility assessment to build a tunnel under the 401. When asked for their initial reaction, responses tended to be more negative. Many thought the idea would be too expensive or unfeasible, some thought this was a bad use of taxpayers money or shouldn’t be the priority at the moment.

Others thought it would help traffic in the region.

When asked specifically whether the idea to build a tunnel under Highway 401, 35% think it’s a good idea while 47% think it’s a bad idea. Another 18% are unsure. It’s worth noting that those who think the idea is very bad is subtantially higher than those who think it’s a very good idea.

Those in Toronto and living in the GTHA are more likely to think the idea is a good one. Most PC supporters agree as well although 25% think it’s a bad idea.

There is less overt opposition to the province purchasing the 407 ETR highway that runs north of Toronto. 39% think it’s a good idea, 22% think it’s an acceptable idea while 18% think its a bad idea including only 8% who think it’s a very bad idea. Those in the GTHA particularly like the idea.

The Upshot

The PC Party continues to maintain a large lead over the opposition parties in Ontario. The 20-point lead we measured this month is the largest we’ve seen since we started tracking after the 2022 provincial election. The Premier’s personal numbers are comparable to the opposition party leaders and the government’s approval rating, while not stellar, is not bad either.

Homeless encampments are seen as a problem by almost all Ontarians and most don’t think the provincial government is doing enough to help municipalities to deal with them. There’s broad support for action and an approach that helps solve the issue and finds permanent help and housing for those who are unhoused and in the encampments at the moment.

Traffic is also a top issue, especially for those living around Toronto. While support for building a tunnel under the 401 is tepid right now, there is broad support for purchasing the 407 to eleviate congestion on the 401. Given the rise in support the Premier and PC Party has seen in the GTHA, it’s clear Doug Ford’s attention to this issue is appreciated by residents in the region.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 997 eligible voters in Ontario from October 3 to 10, 2024.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 21 despite negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre rising

From October 3 to 10, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,900 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers along with a test of a recent advertisement Conservative Party advertisement.

Negative Impressions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Increase by 5 points

The most notable change in opinions over the past month has been how Canadians feel about Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Today, 39% have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre while 40% have a negative view. While positive impressions are static, those holding a negative impression have increased by 5-points over the past month from 35% to 40%. For the first time since last October, Mr. Poilievre’s net favourability score is negative, barely underwater at -1.

The rise in negative impressions of Mr. Poilievre are not concentrated to a single demographic or regional group. His negatives are up 7 in BC, 6 in Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. Negatives are up 5 among men and 4 among women while we see a rise in negatives between 3 and 7 points across age groups.

What is clear is that his negatives have increased almost entirely among people who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021. There’s been a 6-point increase among past Liberal voters, 7-point increase among past NDP voters, and a 16-point increase among past BQ supporters.

Among those who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021 but say they are open to voting Conservative today, Mr. Poilievre’s negatives are up 3.

Despite this rise in negative impressions, more people have a positive view of Mr. Poilievre than any of the other party leaders – Poilievre 39%, Singh 30%, Trudeau 23%.

Negative Impressions of Jagmeet Singh are also rising reaching an all-time high.

At the same time, we also continue to see a rise in negative feelings towards NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Today 30% have a positive view while 41% have a negative view for a net score of -11, the worst score we’ve measured for Mr. Singh since we’ve been tracking public views of the NDP leader.

There has also been a shift in views about change and the acceptability of alternatives

We have also seen a shift in views about the desire for a change in government and the acceptability of alternatives.

Today, 51% of Canadians believe it’s time for a change in government and think there is a good alternative available. That’s down 5-points over the past month and a low since March. At the same time, those who want change but don’t feel there’s a good alternative is up 5 to 34%, a reaching a high not seen since May.

What hasn’t changed is the proportion of Canadians who believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Only 15% of Canadians hold that view, largely unchanged from last month and still much lower than the 20% who felt that way back in August 2023.

Despite these shifts, vote intention has not changed much at all: Conservatives lead by 21 over the Liberals.

If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ has 36% of the vote in Quebec. The Liberal vote share is up 1 while the NDP and the Conservatives are unchanged from the end of last year.

15% of Canadians are uncommitted at this point, the same proportion as we measured last month.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 18 in BC, by 41 points in Alberta, 34 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 22 points in Ontario, and by 12 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 12 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for second at 24%.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Due to a larger sample in Ontario this wave (n=999) we can report subregions in the province. The Conservatives lead by 21 in Toronto, by 29 in the GTHA, and by 18 in Southwestern Ontario. The Conservatives are also ahead in Eastern Ontario, leading the Liberals by 23.

Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 22% while the Conservatives are well ahead with 49%.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.

The Conservative vote share is fairly consistent across all age groups – ranging from 39% to 46% while the Liberals have more support among those at either end of the age spectrum – 26% among 18 to 30 year olds and 24% among those aged 60+

It’s worth noting that 50% of BQ supporters are aged 60 and over – explaining its push to have Old Age Security payments increased for those aged 65 to 74.

For the last five waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support. 48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 38% of women. Liberal support is slightly higher among women (25%) than it is among men (20%).

The Conservative Party’s lead grows to 22-points if you look at the vote intention of only those certain to vote in the next election. The Conservatives would get 45% compared with 23% for the Liberals and 20% for the NDP respectively.

The small improvement in the overall mood of the country has reverted back to the level we’ve seen for almost the entirety of 2024. 25% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction. Only 14% feel the same way about how things are going globally (down 4).

The federal government’s approval rating is unchanged.

Today, 26% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (up 1) while disapproval is unchanged at 59%.

The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister which remain significantly more negative than positive. Despiite a rise in negatives towards Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh, Prime Minister Trudeau’s image has not shifted in the past month.

Today, 23% (+1) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 59% (down 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -36.

 

Which party do Canadians think will win the next election and so Canadians want an election now?

Half of Canadians (50%) believe that the Conservative Party is likely to win the next federal election, up 3 from last month. 17% think the Liberals are going to win (unchanged) while 9% think the NDP is going to win (down 2). 1 in 4 Canadians remain unsure about the outcome of the next election.

How do Canadians React to the new Conservative Party Ad – “Mountain”?

Every now and then we liked to show Canadians content that political parties are putting out to gauge reaction to it. We do this all the time for our clients who are developing advertisements or content and it helps us understand whether the story and message the party is putting out through paid ads is appealing.

We showed this ad – in both languages – to our respondents.

Overall, the ad was well received by most Canadians. 52% said the ad made them feel more positive about Pierre Poilievre while 14% said it made them feel less positive for a net impact of +38. 34% said it had no impact.

Among accessible Conservatives (those open to voting Conservative but right now are voting for another party or are undecided), the net effect is +66. Among those who say their second choice is the Conservative Party but right now they are supporting another party, the net impact was even more positive at +78.

Canadians under 45 years of age were also more responsive to the ad. 30% said their impression of Pierre Poilievre was much more positive and the net impact was +49 among this group.

Among francophone Quebecers, the net impact was +33 with 21% saying it left them feeling much more positive about Poilievre.

Based on this, it’s likely that if this ad is seen widely, it will likely improve impressions of Poilievre. But we dug a bit deeper to understand why it appealed to people.

We followed up with people who said the ad made them feel more positive about Mr. Poilievre.

Among accessible Conservatives who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021 (a key group for the party today – 47% of which would vote Conservative now), here’s a summary of their feedback.

Many expressed hope that Pierre Poilievre would improve Canada, make it a better place to live, and restore the country’s lost glory. Themes included fixing issues like housing, crime, and the economy. Words like “hope,” “positive,” “better future,” and “change” were common.

A significant portion found Pierre Poilievre relatable, down-to-earth, and in touch with the average Canadian. Many felt he understood their struggles and expressed views that aligned with their own, often praising his “common sense.”

Several people appreciated that Poilievre touched on relevant issues such as housing, crime, taxes, unemployment, and the economy. They felt these were the real problems that needed addressing.

Some viewers, while positive about the message, expressed doubt about whether Poilievre would follow through on his promises. There was a cautious optimism, with some skepticism about political promises being fulfilled.

Others were moved by Poilievre’s personal story, including his upbringing and the struggles he overcame. They saw this as evidence that he could relate to the challenges of average Canadians.

Finally, a notable group emphasized the patriotic message of the ad, appreciating that Poilievre spoke about Canada’s identity, family values, and returning to a Canada that was once strong. They felt a connection to his message of unification and national pride.

The “Mountain” ad appears to convey a message of hope, relatability, and patriotism to currently accessible Conservative voters who didn’t support the party in 2021, resonating most with their desire for positive change in Canada.

Poilievre’s focus on addressing key issues like housing, the economy, and crime struck a chord, while his perceived down-to-earth demeanor and “common sense” approach made him relatable. Many saw him as genuine and trustworthy, though some remained cautiously optimistic or skeptical about whether his promises would be fulfilled. Overall, the ad effectively tapped into a sense of nostalgia for a better Canada, offering a unifying message that aligned with voters’ concerns about the country’s direction.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “In the past month, perceptions of both Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh have become more negative, while views of Prime Minister Trudeau remain unchanged. We could be entering a new period where all three main party leaders become and are deeply unpopular with those who are not voting for them. This has long been the case for Mr. Trudeau, but we’re now seeing it with Mr. Singh and Mr. Poilievre as well.

This has three key implications. First, despite Mr. Poilievre being more popular than the other two leaders, he remains vulnerable to reputational damage. Many Canadians still don’t know him well, which could make him susceptible to negative perceptions, either from his actions or attacks from opponents.

But consider this: our survey shows that 1 in 5 Canadians don’t know Mr. Singh or Mr. Poilievre well, and only a third feel they know them very well. A year ago, 38% of Canadians said they didn’t know Mr. Poilievre at all or had only heard of him, but that number has now dropped to 22%. Canadians have a better sense of who he is and what he stands for. Although his negative ratings have increased, Conservative support hasn’t declined, suggesting those uncomfortable with him aren’t Conservative voters, and the party’s coalition remains solid.

Second, while Mr. Poilievre’s negatives are rising, the overall desire for change remains high, even more now think there isn’t an alternative they are comfortable with. Eighty-five percent of Canadians want a change in government, and only 15% believe Trudeau and the Liberals deserve re-election. As long as Mr. Trudeau is viewed more negatively—and more intensely disliked—than Mr. Poilievre, any increase in Mr. Poilievre’s negatives won’t drastically alter the political landscape.

Finally, all this suggests that a leadership change in the Liberal Party could shift the current dynamic. There’s a strong link between how people feel about Mr. Trudeau and their likelihood of voting Liberal. As I’ve argued before, if Mr. Trudeau intends to run again, the only way for the Liberals to become more competitive is to improve his image. Without changing how people feel about Mr. Trudeau, the Liberals can’t reduce their polling deficit.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from October 3 to 10, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Public concern about Climate Change drops 14-points since last year. Why?

From September 19 to 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,701 Canadian adults (18+) to examine their perspectives on climate change and their priorities in the context of pressing immediate challenges, such as the cost of living and housing affordability. Results reveal a significant focus on short-term relief, with many Canadians prioritizing immediate socioeconomic issues over long-term climate action, while also shedding light on the political implications of these perceptions, emphasizing the critical role leaders play in navigating the intersection of immediate concerns and environmental sustainability. 

Shifting Priorities Amid Immediate Challenges 

62% of Canadians are concerned about climate change and its potential impact on our future, while only 13% indicated that they are entirely unconcerned. Liberal (76%) and NDP (74%) supporters are the most concerned with climate change, while just 49% of Conservative Party supporters share similar concerns. Further, nearly 1 in 4 Conservative supporters indicate that they are not at all concerned with climate change and its potential impact on our future (22%).  

Notably, concern about climate change has decreased 14 points since October 2023, which revealed that 76% of Canadians were worried about this issue. 

In exploring the reasons behind this decrease in concern, the data reveal that 72% of Canadians prioritize immediate issues over climate change, with only 5% placing a greater emphasis on environmental matters. Among those focused on immediate concerns, 82% who intend to vote Conservative Party hold this view, compared to 57% for Liberal and 65% for NDP supporters. Interestingly, Liberal supporters are more likely to recognize the importance of both climate change and issues related to the cost of living and housing equality, with 32% prioritizing both compared to just 15% of Conservative voters. 

This decline in concern regarding climate change, coupled with the majority of Canadians focusing on immediate challenges, suggests that while climate change remains important for many, Canadians are increasingly preoccupied with pressing issues such as the cost of living and housing affordability and a scarcity mindset is framing their priorities at the moment. As these urgent matters demand immediate attention, individuals are shifting their focus toward short-term relief rather than long-term solutions like climate action. 

Divided Opinions: Balancing Economic Growth and Climate Action  

When considering what approach government should take, 55% of Canadians believe the government should strive for a balance between economic growth and climate action. This sentiment is particularly strong among Liberal (65%) and NDP (63%) supporters, while only 44% of Conservative supporters share this view. In contrast, a significant 41% of Conservative supporters advocate for prioritizing immediate economic growth, even if it necessitates postponing climate action. This highlights a clear divide in priorities among different political affiliations regarding the relationship between economic development and environmental responsibility. 

62% of Canadians believe it is possible to address immediate issues while also tackling climate change, reflecting a growing recognition that these priorities can be pursued simultaneously. This perspective is particularly strong among Liberal (77%) and NDP (70%) supporters, indicating a strong commitment to balancing urgent needs with long-term environmental goals. In contrast, only 54% of Conservative supporters share this belief, highlighting differing attitudes across political affiliations regarding the integration of immediate concerns with climate action. This divergence suggests that many Canadians are optimistic about finding solutions that can effectively address both current challenges and the imperative of climate change. 

Public Confidence and Expectations in Climate Leadership 

38% of Canadians consider it important for the party they support to have a robust plan for addressing climate change. This sentiment is especially strong among Liberal (55%) and NDP (51%) supporters, while only 24% of Conservative Party voters feel the same way. Notably, 20% of Canadians intending to vote for the Conservative Party indicate that climate change is not a significant factor in their voting decision. This highlights a clear divide in priorities regarding climate action among political affiliations. 

When Canadians were asked who they believe is best equipped to tackle climate change and promote the growth of Canada’s clean economy, Pierre Poilievre emerged as the preferred choice for 30% of respondents. This indicates that many Canadians now view him as a capable leader on these critical issues. In contrast, only 17% of Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau is the right person for the job. This is particularly striking given that Trudeau has historically been known for his strong stance on climate action and environmental policies. His current standing reflects a noticeable decline in public confidence regarding his climate initiatives. Additionally, just 13% of respondents think Jagmeet Singh is best suited to handle these challenges. 

Interestingly, on October 12, 2023, we released a report that asked Canadians who they thought was better able to deal with several issues. In this, 37% of Canadians noted that Justin Trudeau was better able to take action to deal with climate change compared to 30% who noted they believed it was Pierre Poilievre (32% didn’t know who was best at the time). 

With 30% of Canadians believing that Pierre Poilievre is the leader best equipped to address climate change while also promoting the growth of Canada’s clean economy, it is essential to examine what Canadians expect him to do in this area. Notably, 79% of Canadians feel that if elected, Poilievre should take climate change seriously. This sentiment is particularly strong among Liberal (89%) and NDP (89%) supporters, showcasing a cross-party consensus on the importance of climate action. Even among Conservative supporters, 71% believe that Poilievre should prioritize addressing climate change. 

However, a significant gap emerges when it comes to expectations versus beliefs: only 34% of Canadians are confident that Poilievre will take climate change seriously if elected. Among Conservative supporters, this belief is more prevalent, with 55% expressing confidence in his commitment to climate action. In stark contrast, just 25% of Liberal supporters and 20% of NDP supporters share this view. This discrepancy underscores varying levels of trust in Poilievre’s climate priorities across political affiliations, highlighting the challenge he faces in aligning public expectations with perceptions of his willingness to take meaningful climate action.  

THE UPSHOT

In 2024, Canadians have witnessed several extreme weather events, notably the Jasper wildfire, severe flooding in southern Ontario and Quebec, and a major hailstorm in Calgary, to mention a few. Despite these events, we have witnessed a significant decline in concerns surrounding climate change and its impacts across Canada. The decline in concern over climate change raises important questions about whether Canadians are becoming desensitized to the threats posed by extreme weather events, or if the current focus on cost of living is simply overshadowing environmental concerns.  

Recent shifts in public opinion indicate that more Canadians now view Pierre Poilievre as the leader best equipped to address climate change and grow Canada’s a clean economy, though skepticism about his commitment to climate action remains among many Canadians (including his supporters). As many Canadians still express concern about climate change, Conservatives cannot afford to ignore this issue. To build trust among their voter base, and Canadians in general, Poilievre must bridge the gap between public expectations and political commitments, especially as public sentiment increasingly reflects the interconnectedness of economic and environmental issues. 

Climate change remains one of the most politically divisive issues in Canada, particularly in terms of its salience and urgency. Advocates for climate action need to find ways to effectively link climate issues to pressing concerns like the cost of living and safety, particularly for Conservative voters, as these are issues that are far more pressing for many Canadians. It’s important for Conservatives to recognize climate change as a real issue impacting Canada today, as neglecting it could become a vulnerability, particularly if short-term worries about costs begin to lessen. 

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,701 Canadian adults from September 19 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.  

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.38 %, 19 times out of 20.  

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.  

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. 

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/  

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsEnvironment & Climate ChangePolls

Which Trust Attributes Most Drive the Reputations of Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre?

In politics, trust is a currency that every leader needs, but few can consistently maintain. It shapes the way voters feel about those in power or those aspiring to it. Without trust, even the most well-intentioned policies and offers can fall flat, and the most charismatic leaders can lose their appeal. And trust isn’t just about liking someone—it’s built on a range of qualities that go beyond likeability, charm, or warmth.

At Abacus Data, we’ve spent years exploring what drives perceptions of trust – whether for political leaders, brands, employers, industries, or stakeholders.

Recently, I applied the same methods we use in our reputation practice for North America’s leading brands, companies, associations, and unions to better understand the drivers of the reputation of Canada’s most prominent politicians: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Using data from our September 2024 survey of 1,700 Canadians, I used advanced techniques, including multiple regression analysis, to uncover the key attributes that shape how Canadians feel about these two leaders. And the results were both revealing and instructive.

Multiple regression is a statistical technique used to determine how several independent variables contribute to a single outcome, or dependent variable, when they are considered simultaneously. In the context of analyzing perceptions of political leaders, we use multiple regression to examine how different trust attributes—like openness, fairness, and accountability—collectively influence public impressions. By including all the variables together in the model, multiple regression helps isolate the individual effect of each attribute while controlling for the influence of others. This allows us to see which factors contribute the most to shaping opinions, offering a more precise understanding of the drivers behind people’s perceptions. In our case, the model revealed that for both Trudeau and Poilievre, certain trust attributes—such as openness and honesty—play a much more significant role in determining overall impressions compared to others.

Why Trust Matters More Than Ever

Trust is not just a nice to have. It’s an essential quality in an era where public skepticism is sky-high and the political landscape is increasingly polarized. And while it’s true politicians generally have a hard time developing and keeping trust with the public, it is the essential ingredient determining whether people believe what you say, buy into your vision, and feel confident you’ll deliver.

It’s not just about avoiding scandals or gaffes; it’s about consistently showing that you are who you say you are.

We broke down trust into several core attributes that we believe form the foundation of how Canadians judge whether a leader is trustworthy.

These include whether a leader is open and honest, whether they treat people fairly and with dignity, and whether they take responsibility for their actions (the full list is below). These attributes aren’t just relevant to politics—think of the most trusted brands or employers. They inspire confidence because they deliver consistently and reliably, they are transparent, fair, and accountable. The same is true for political leaders.

A Tale of Two Leaders: Trudeau vs. Poilievre

So, how do Canadians feel about Trudeau and Poilievre right now?

For Justin Trudeau, the numbers paint a challenging picture:

6% of Canadians have a very positive view of him.
16% hold a somewhat positive view.
16% are neutral.
20% are somewhat negative.
41% have a very negative opinion.
Only 1% don’t know enough to form an opinion.

In contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s numbers show a more balanced and positive, albeit divided, landscape:

17% have a very positive view of him.
22% are somewhat positive.
19% are neutral.
10% are somewhat negative.
27% hold a very negative opinion.
5% say they don’t know enough to have an opinion.

These numbers give us a snapshot of public sentiment, but to really understand why Canadians feel this way, we need to dig deeper into the drivers behind these impressions.

How Trudeau and Poilievre Perform on Trust Attributes

The chart below provides an assessment of how Canadians perceive key attributes of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It shows that less than half of respondents feel that Trudeau embodies the trust attributes asked about in the survey. The highest positive ratings are for safeguarding confidential information (48%), acting according to his principles (45%), and valuing others’ opinions and treating them with dignity (44%). Lower ratings are given for doing what he says he will do (40%) and delivering reliable and predictable results (38%). Across all attributes, a significant portion of respondents—ranging from 38% to 53%—feel that these descriptions do not apply to him, reflecting the challenges Trudeau faces in building trust among the public.

The chart assessing Pierre Poilievre reveals that Canadians have a generally more favorable perception of him across several key attributes compared to Justin Trudeau. The highest ratings are for acting according to his principles (57%) and being open and honest about his actions (51%). About half of respondents also feel that Poilievre does what he says he will do (50%). Attributes such as treating everyone fairly, valuing others’ opinions, and safeguarding confidential information all receive 47% agreement. However, there are still notable segments of the population who feel these descriptions do not apply to Poilievre, with a significant proportion expressing uncertainty about his actions and intentions.

What Shapes Impressions of Trudeau?

For Justin Trudeau, trust is built—or eroded—across several dimensions. Our model shows that five key attributes drive how Canadians feel about the Prime Minister. The most influential is whether people think he is open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions—this alone accounts for 26% of the variation in his reputation.

Next, perceptions of whether Trudeau treats everyone fairly and without bias contribute 20% to his overall impression, alongside whether people believe he takes responsibility for his actions and corrects mistakes (also 20%). These are followed closely by whether he does what he says he will do (19%) and whether he values others’ opinions and treats them with dignity (15%).

What this tells us is that Trudeau’s brand is shaped by a variety of factors, each contributing significantly to how he’s perceived. Canadians are looking for transparency and fairness in their leaders, but they also expect accountability. For Trudeau, the fact that these drivers are evenly distributed means there’s no single issue he can focus on to rebuild trust. It’s not just about being more open or correcting mistakes—it’s about addressing all of these areas simultaneously if he hopes to regain the confidence of a disillusioned electorate.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Poilievre’s Narrower but More Concentrated Set of Drivers

Pierre Poilievre’s reputation, on the other hand, is driven by a more focused set of attributes. By far the most important factor in shaping perceptions of Poilievre is whether people think he is open and honest about his actions, decisions, and intentions—just over half (54%) of his reputation hinges on this single attribute. This makes his public image particularly vulnerable to questions of sincerity or hidden agendas.

Beyond that, whether people think Poilievre treats everyone fairly and without bias accounts for 19% of his reputation, while perceptions of whether he values others’ opinions and treats them with dignity contribute 16%. Together, these three attributes account for almost all of the variation in how Canadians feel about him. In Poilievre’s case, his reputation is largely a reflection of whether people believe he is straightforward and genuine in his intentions. If you think he’s hiding his true intentions, you are much more likely to have a negative view.

The Delivery Gap

One important difference between Trudeau and Poilievre is the role of delivery in shaping their reputations. For Trudeau, his record as Prime Minister over the past nine years means that Canadians also judge him on whether he can deliver reliable and predictable results over time. This factor doesn’t yet apply to Poilievre, who, as opposition leader, is judged more on his intentions and potential rather than his track record.

If Trudeau falters in delivering on promises, his overall trustworthiness suffers. But for Poilievre, the challenge is different—he must first convince Canadians that he’s being consistent and honest about what he plans to deliver.

What Doesn’t Matter as Much

Interestingly, certain attributes—such as whether the leader safeguards confidential information or whether they act according to their principles, even when it’s difficult or inconvenient—don’t appear to have a significant independent effect on how Canadians view either Trudeau or Poilievre. This suggests that voters are less concerned with these abstract concepts and more focused on the visible traits that shape everyday leadership.

What It Means for Both Leaders

For Justin Trudeau, the challenge is clear: he needs to improve perceptions across multiple dimensions. Trust is built on many things, and the fact that Canadians’ views of him are shaped by several factors means there’s no quick fix. To regain trust, he needs to be seen as more transparent, more fair, and more accountable.

Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, faces a different but equally important challenge. With so much of his reputation tied to whether people believe he is open and honest, any cracks in his perceived sincerity could have significant consequences. If Canadians start to believe that Poilievre is hiding something or not being entirely truthful, his favourability could turn negative. Maintaining his net positive reputation will depend on reinforcing the idea that he will do what he says he will and won’t do what he says he won’t.

The Importance of Trust

In the end, trust remains the most valuable asset any leader can possess, but it’s also the most fragile. For Justin Trudeau, the erosion of trust is rooted in a multifaceted set of challenges—he is not just judged on his words but on his actions and his ability to deliver. To rebuild his reputation, he must address multiple dimensions of trust, ranging from transparency to fairness, while also convincing Canadians that he can still be the reliable, accountable leader they once believed in. This won’t be easy, but it’s essential if he hopes to reconnect with a disillusioned public.

For Pierre Poilievre, the stakes are equally high but different. His relatively new role as opposition leader means his brand is still forming, and Canadians’ views of him hinge primarily on whether they perceive him as genuine. Any doubts about his sincerity or hidden motives could rapidly erode the goodwill he’s built. His challenge will be to prove that he is not just transparent about his intentions but that he can deliver on them when given the chance.

As Canada approaches its next federal election, trust will not only shape the fortunes of these two leaders but also define the country’s political landscape. In an era of increasing skepticism, both Trudeau and Poilievre must navigate a complex set of public expectations, each leader facing their own unique trust-related vulnerabilities.

At Abacus Data, we know that trust isn’t just about a single moment in time—it’s built, tested, and reinforced through consistent actions and decisions. Our work in understanding what drives trust in political leaders, as well as in brands and organizations, reveals the deep layers that contribute to public perceptions.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,700 Canadian adults from September 19 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Abacus Data Poll: NDP passes Liberals outside of Quebec; Conservatives lead by 22.

From September 19 to 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,700 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers, along with gauging preference for the next federal election’s timing as well as updating our look at what Canadians think a Conservative government should and would do.

Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 22 over the Liberals

If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 21% would vote for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 37% of the vote in Quebec. The Liberal vote share is down 1, the NDP is up 1, and the Conservatives are unchanged from earlier this month.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 22 in BC, by 37 points in Alberta, 32 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 24 points in Ontario, and by 15 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 9 points in Quebec where the Liberals are slightly ahead of the Conservatives.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Outside of Quebec, the NDP has now surpassed the Liberals into second place. The Conservatives have 50% of the vote outside Quebec, followed by the NDP at 22% and the Liberals at 19%.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.

The Conservative vote share is fairly consistent across all age groups – ranging from 42% to 47% while the Liberals have more support among those aged 60+ than those under 60.

For the last four waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support. 49% of men would vote Conservative compared with 38% of women. Liberal support is consistent between men and women while NDP support is 4-points higher among women than among men.

The Conservative Party’s lead grows to 26-points if you look at the vote intention of only those certain to vote in the next election. The Conservatives would get 46% compared with 20% for the Liberals and NDP respectively.

Despite a widening lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals, we have seen a small improvement in the mood of the country. Today, 27% think the country is headed in the right direction. At the same time, 18% feel the world is headed in the right direction, up four points from last month.

The federal government’s approval rating has improved slightly.

Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (up 1) while disapproval is down three points to 59%.

The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister which remain significantly more negative than positive.

Today, 22% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 60% (down 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.

And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives also continue to trend upward reaching 39% – a high for Mr. Singh in our tracking. His positives are also up slightly (+2) to 31% for a net score of -8.

Impression of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have also become slightly more negative. While his positives are steady at 39%, those with a negative view are up two to 37% giving him a net score of +2.  

Which party do Canadians think will win the next election and so Canadians want an election now?

Almost half of Canadians (47%) continue to believe that the Conservative Party is likely to win the next federal election. This is unchanged from July. 17% think the Liberals are going to win (down 2) while 11% think the NDP is going to win (up 2). 1 in 4 Canadians remain unsure about the outcome of the next election.

In this survey, we asked Canadians when they would like the next election to happen.

32% want a federal election to happen as soon as possible while 30% don’t want an election to happen until it’s schedule date in October 2025. 16% prefer an election to happen sooner than October 2025 but not before the end of the year. The remaining 22% say they don’t care.

Not surprisingly, Conservative supporters are most likely to want an election as soon as possible while Liberal supporters are most likely to want an election in October 2025. NDP supporters are split – 37% want an early election while 39% want to wait until October 2025. BQ supporters split in a similar fashion.

There is also a strong relationship between one’s desire for change and preferred timing of an election. 66% of those who want a change of government and think there’s a good alternative (54% of Canadians) would prefer an earlier election whereas those who believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected (15% of Canadians) would prefer an election in October 2025.

What do Canadians think a Conservative government would do if elected?

Twice previously we asked Canadians whether a Conservative Party will or won’t do several things to gauge perceptions about what a Conservative government means.

In the most recent wave we seen perceptions have shifted in some ways.

A majority of Canadians continue to believe that a Conservative government definitely or probably would eliminate the national carbon tax. Today 60% believe it will, up 2 points from December. This remains the most recognized policy change that a Conservative government would bring.

The survey also finds a big shift in perceptions about what a Conservative government would do about the national dentalcare program. Today, 49% believe a Conservative government will likely eliminate the program, up 14-points from December 2023.

Another half (48%) believe the Conservatives would cut all public funding to the English-language CBC – and this up 8 points since December.

There is also more Canadians who think the Conservatives would end the national childcare program (+5 to 45%), make it harder for women to have an abortion (+5 to 44%), and cut personal income taxes (+4 to 35%). More also think it will balance the budget (+4 to 35%).

Only a third of Canadians (34%) think the Conservatives will take dealing with climate change seriously (unchanged from December) while 20% think they will welcome as many immigrants to Canada as the Liberals (down 2 to 20%).

But when we turn to what a Conservative government should do, views are pretty stable.

Almost all Canadians believe the Conservatives should make housing more affordable (91%, unchanged) and balance the federal budget within 4 years (82%, up 3). Noteworthy, 79% want a Conservative government to take climate change seriously (79%, down 3).

A majority also want a Conservative government to cut personal income taxes (70%, down 1) and eliminate the carbon tax (61%, down 2).

Things few want the Conservatives to do remain ending the national childcare program (31%, up 5), welcome as many immigrants as the Liberals (30%, down 10 since December, and down 23 since May 2023), end the national dentalcare program (28%, up 3), and make it harder for women to have an abortion (24%, unchanged).

This confirms that national childcare and dentalcare as well as abortion and climate change remain vulnerable issues for the Conservatives. The gap between what people want and what people think the Conservatives might do highlight the risk for the party on these issues.

Digging a bit deeper, when we look at those who today say they would vote Conservative but didn’t vote for the party in 2021 (the new Conservative voters), perceptions of this group are instructive.

71% think a Conservative government will eliminate the carbon tax and 82% want them to.

65% think a Conservative government will make housing more affordable and 93% want them to.

73% wants a Conservative government to cut income taxes, but 53% think they will.

These three issues are ones where more wabt a future government to do something than think they will. These are their sword issues.

In contrast, 32% of new Conservative supporters think a Conservative government will make it harder for women to get an abortion and only 35% think they should.

Similarly,59% think a Conservative government shouldn’t end the national dental care plan, but 36% think they will.

Half think the party will take dealing with climate change seriously but 77% think they should.

These are areas where Conservative opponents can try and wedge these new Conservative supporters away from the party if perceptions about what it might do shift into something they don’t want it to do.

Overall, these questions show that the Conservatives and Mr. Poilievre have been very effective in focusing the public on its plan to eliminate the carbon tax, balance the budget, and make housing more affordable. But it also shows where the party remains vulnerable.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “If an election was held today, the Conservatives would likely win a large majority government. This marks a continuation of a trend that has seen the Conservatives dominate across most regions of the country, with only Quebec being a place where their appeal has found fewer converts. Outside of Quebec, the NDP has overtaken the Liberals for second place, highlighting the continuing deterioration of the Trudeau Liberal Party’s prospects.

Despite slight improvements in the mood of the country, with 27% of Canadians feeling the country is headed in the right direction, and the federal government’s approval ticking up by a point to 25%, the Prime Minister’s personal approval remains stuck in negative territory at -38. Similarly, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s favorability has held steady with a modest +2 net score, while NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has seen a rise in his negatives to a record-high of 39%.

Almost a majority of Canadians (47%) believe that the Conservatives are most likely to win the next federal election, a view unchanged since July. The desire for an election, however, remains divided: while 32% want one as soon as possible, 30% would prefer it happen as scheduled in October 2025. This split is driven largely by a desire for change among Conservative voters and those dissatisfied with the current government.

The survey also delves again into public expectations of a potential Conservative government, revealing that Canadians believe the party would eliminate the carbon tax, cut personal income taxes, and balance the federal budget. However, there is also growing belief that a Conservative government might roll back social programs like national dental and childcare plans, which remain popular among a significant portion of the electorate. These issues represent a vulnerability for the Conservatives, as the gap between what Canadians want and what they believe the party will do could provide an opening for their opponents to draw support away from them.

This survey underscores the Conservative Party’s strong positioning as the clear front-runner in Canadian politics but highlights areas of risk where public perception could shift, particularly on social issues like healthcare, climate change, and abortion.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,700 Canadian adults from September 19 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

The Political Dynamics of Happiness and Joy. On this, we aren’t as divided as you might think.

In challenging times, it’s easy to focus on the things that divide us—our political leanings, our views on the future of the country, or how we feel about leadership. But amid all the noise, something powerful unites us: the joy we experience in everyday life.

Our latest national survey, conducted with 3,000 Canadians, reveals that despite the mood of uncertainty in the country, the vast majority of Canadians still find moments of happiness and joy in their daily lives and the sources of happiness are as varied as the people who call our country home.

Let’s start with the good news: 87% of Canadians experience moments of joy at least a few times a week, and many do so daily.

Whether it’s spending time with family and friends, being outdoors in nature, or listening to music, Canadians continue to find joy in the simple pleasures of life. While the current political climate may seem bleak, joy is a common thread that connects people across age groups, genders, and even political affiliations.

Where Do Canadians Find Joy?

When asked what brings joy to their lives, the most popular response was “spending time with family and friends,” with over half (54%) saying it brings them a great deal of happiness. It’s clear that, despite political differences, Canadians value their personal relationships. Being outdoors in nature also scored highly, with 39% of Canadians finding great joy in natural surroundings, which might explain why parks and outdoor spaces remain so beloved across the country. Music, hobbies, and pets were other frequent sources of joy.

Interestingly, joy is also a multipartisan affair. Whether Liberal or Conservative, NDP or Bloc supporters, the results showed remarkably little difference in what brings happiness to people’s lives. For example, 57% of Conservative supporters and 55% of Liberal supporters said spending time with family and friends brought them joy. Nature, music, and hobbies followed similar patterns, with only slight variations by political affiliation. It seems that no matter which party Canadians align with, the things that make life joyful remain constant.

Generational Joy: What Makes Different Age Groups Happy?

There are, of course, some generational differences in what brings joy to people’s lives. Younger Canadians (under 45) are more likely to find joy in activities like listening to music (42%), engaging in hobbies (40%), and playing games (26%). Meanwhile, older Canadians (45 and over) are more likely to find happiness in quieter activities such as spending time outdoors (41%) or reading books (24%).

But no matter the generation, the essence of joy remains the same: personal connections, engagement in meaningful activities, and appreciation of the world around us. Older Canadians may be more satisfied overall with their level of joy—77% of those aged 60 and over say they are satisfied with the joy they experience in life—but the data shows that all age groups are finding moments of happiness in their own ways.

Are Canadians Satisfied with the Amount of Joy in Their Lives?

Despite the often gloomy tone surrounding the state of the nation, two-thirds of Canadians (66%) are satisfied with the amount of joy and happiness they experience in their lives. This is an encouraging number, showing that while people may be concerned about the broader political and economic environment, their personal lives still bring them contentment. The most satisfied group? Older Canadians, with 77% of those over 60 expressing satisfaction.

Political Divides Fade When It Comes to Joy & Happiness

One of the most encouraging findings of the survey is that joy knows no political boundaries. While Canadians may have sharp differences of opinion on the direction of the country, their sources of happiness are remarkably similar. For example, when looking at satisfaction with the amount of joy in their lives, 79% of Conservative supporters and 72% of Liberal supporters say they are satisfied. These are high numbers, especially considering the deep political divides on other issues.

This lack of division is important. It reminds us that while the news often highlights our differences, Canadians have more in common than we might think. Joy, in many ways, acts as a unifying force. Whether it’s a shared love of nature, time spent with loved ones, or the comfort of a familiar hobby, these moments of happiness cut across the political spectrum.

A Glass-Half-Full Perspective

In a time when nearly 90% of Canadians want to see a change in government, and approval ratings are at all-time lows, it can be easy to dwell on the negatives. But if there’s one thing this survey shows, it’s that Canadians are still finding ways to live joyful, fulfilling lives. Whether it’s through spending time with loved ones, enjoying the great outdoors, or engaging in personal passions, moments of happiness are woven into the fabric of daily life, regardless of politics.

As someone who likes to see the glass as half full, I find this deeply reassuring. Everything we do—whether it’s in politics, business, or public life—should aim to help people live more joyful lives. And while government decisions and policies have a significant impact on our day-to-day experiences, they don’t define the whole picture. At the end of the day, joy comes from human connections, from moments of peace and reflection, and from doing what we love.

The Upshot: More Than Just Politics

In an era of political polarization, it’s easy to forget that the real goal of policy-making should be to improve people’s lives. This survey reminds us that, even amid political turbulence, Canadians are finding joy in the everyday. The absence of significant political division on what brings happiness is perhaps one of the most heartening aspects of the data. It shows that, despite our differences, we share a common desire for happiness, peace, and connection.

So, while the mood in Canada may be uncertain, one thing is clear: joy is alive and well in the hearts of Canadians. And as we continue to navigate the challenges ahead, let’s remember that fostering joy—whether through the policies we support or the relationships we nurture—should be at the centre of everything we do. After all, a happy life is a good life, and isn’t that what we all want?

In the end, it’s these moments of joy that bring us together, reminding us that there’s always something to be optimistic about. And as we look to the future, it’s that shared experience of joy that will continue to bind us as a country.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,964 Canadian adults from September 5 to 12, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial PoliticsPublic Policy

Understanding the Divide: How Canadians See the Opioid Crisis

From September 5 to 12, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,000 Canadian adults (18+) to examine their perspectives on the severity of the crisis, its impact on their communities, and potential solutions. The opioid crisis in Canada has emerged as one of the most pressing public health challenges in recent years, affecting communities from coast to coast. This research offers a closer look at how Canadians perceive the current state of the opioid crisis, the effects on their communities, and the potential paths forward.

The survey reveals broad recognition of the opioid crisis in Canada, but opinions on solutions remain divided. Some advocate for stricter law enforcement, while others support harm reduction strategies like safe injection sites. This split reflects differing political, generational, and regional perspectives, highlighting the complexity of addressing the crisis with both enforcement and compassionate care approaches.

The Current State of the Opioid Crisis in Canada

The opioid crisis in Canada continues to weigh heavily on the minds of Canadians, with 79% recognizing the seriousness of the issue. News reports from across the country mirror this sentiment, highlighting the urgency of addressing the growing epidemic. However, there is a generational gap in how Canadians perceive the crisis. While 86% of older Canadians (60+) acknowledge the severity, only 72% of those aged 18-29 feel the same.

Additionally, 59% of Canadians believe the opioid crisis has worsened over the past year, with Conservative voters (66%) being more likely to note this trend compared to their Liberal counterparts (53%). Older Canadians are also more inclined to feel the crisis has deteriorated, with 64% of those aged 45+ echoing this belief, while only 49% of those aged 18-29 share this view.

Community Impact

The ripple effects of the opioid crisis are deeply felt across Canadian communities. Half of Canadians (50%) cite increased homelessness and poverty as a direct result of the crisis, as well as higher rates of addiction and overdose-related deaths (45%). Further, 45% report heightened crime rates and safety concerns, a perception that is more pronounced among Conservative voters (49%) and NDP supporters (48%), compared to Liberals (37%). Only 15% of Canadians note that their community has not been impacted by the opioid crisis, further signaling how many communities have felt the impact.

Communities across British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba are particularly affected, with higher residents noting higher rates of addiction and overdose-related incidents in these provinces. In BC, 54% of residents note an increase in addiction rates, and 56% report an increase in crime and safety issues. Beyond public safety, residents in BC and Alberta also perceive growing financial pressures on local governments and taxpayers, as well as increased strain on emergency services and healthcare systems.

What Should We Do About It?

Opinions on how to address the opioid crisis are divided. A slight majority of Canadians (54%) advocate for an approach focused on enhanced law enforcement efforts, stricter penalties for drug trafficking, and relocating or reassessing safe injection sites. This view is particularly strong among Conservative voters, 66% of whom favour this approach. On the other hand, 46% of Canadians believe in a harm-reduction approach that emphasizes increased funding for addiction treatment, support for public health initiatives, and the expansion of safe injection sites. Liberal (53%) and NDP (58%) supporters are more likely to support this perspective.

Despite differing views on enforcement versus harm reduction, a broader consensus has emerged, with 59% of Canadians favouring a compassionate, public-health-oriented approach to addressing drug addiction and use. This perspective is particularly strong among Liberal (66%) and NDP (68%) supporters. In contrast, 41% of Canadians support a more punitive, enforcement-based response, a stance more commonly held by Conservative voters (55%).

Safe Injection Sites: Support and Opposition

Safe injection sites, a key component of harm-reduction strategies, continue to divide Canadians. While 42% support these facilities, 33% remain opposed. Among supporters, 27% acknowledge concerns but still recognize the benefits of safe injection sites. Opposition is more common among Conservative voters, with 50% against these sites, compared to just 27% who support them. In contrast, 55% of Liberal and 58% of NDP supporters are in support of safe injection sites.

Diverging Views on the Future of Safe Injection Sites

Opinions on how to handle safe injection sites in Canada are divided. While 19% of Canadians support expanding them, particularly in high-need areas, this view is more common among Liberal and NDP supporters (both 28%) compared to Conservatives (10%). Another 15% believe existing sites should continue operating without expansion.

On the other hand, 18% of Canadians favor alternative approaches, such as increasing addiction treatment or public education, with greater support from Conservatives (24%). Additionally, 17% advocate for closing all safe injection sites, a stance most strongly supported by Conservatives (27%), highlighting a significant ideological divide on the issue.

1 in 3 Canadians (35%) agree that safe injection sites should be relocated away from schools, a view shared across political lines. Additionally, 17% support evaluating new sites to avoid school proximity. Meanwhile, 16% advocate for closing all safe injection sites, a belief held more strongly by Conservative voters (27%) compared to Liberals (9%) and NDP supporters (10%), reflecting a deeper ideological divide.

Outcomes of Safe Injection Sites: A Divided Picture

The perceived outcomes of safe injection sites paint a divided picture. Many believe they reduce opioid overdoses (33%) and decrease public drug use and discarded needles (31%), while also improving access to addiction treatment (27%). However, concerns persist about increased drug use (31%) and crime rates (29%) in the areas surrounding these sites. Political alignment heavily influences these perceptions. Conservative supporters are more likely to highlight negative outcomes such as increased drug dependency (43%) and higher crime rates (42%), while NDP and Liberal supporters focus more on the positive outcomes, including reduced overdoses and improved access to treatment and harm reduction programs.

Despite mixed views on safe injection sites, most Canadians believe their closure would have negative effects. Many anticipate increases in overdoses (31%), public drug use (28%), strain on emergency services (25%), and crime (23%). In contrast, only a small percentage believe closure would bring positive changes like improved community aesthetics (18%), safety (17%), or business revitalization (14%). These findings suggest that Canadians recognize the vital role safe injection sites play in mitigating the opioid crisis.

The Upshot

The survey reveals a nation deeply divided on how to address the opioid crisis. Some Canadians advocate for stricter law enforcement and punitive measures, while others prioritize harm-reduction strategies like safe injection sites. Conservative supporters are more likely to back enforcement-based approaches, whereas Liberal and NDP voters lean towards compassionate, public-health-oriented responses. These differences highlight the complexity of tackling a crisis that affects communities across the country and requires a balance between security and care.

Despite these divisions, the opioid crisis is an undeniable national emergency that cannot be ignored. It is a public health challenge that has already strained healthcare systems, increased crime rates, and caused immeasurable harm to individuals and families. The urgency of the situation is clear: without decisive action, the crisis will continue to escalate. While opinions differ, there is a shared understanding that the consequences of inaction—rising overdose deaths, greater public safety concerns, and more discarded needles in public spaces—are too severe to overlook.

As Canadians continue to grapple with the opioid crisis, one thing is clear: effective, evidence-based solutions are needed to address this growing public health emergency. This is not just a political debate, but a human crisis, and the future of countless lives depends on swift and meaningful action. The opioid crisis requires attention, and Canada must come together to find solutions that save lives and strengthen communities.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,964 Canadian adults from September 5 to 12, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial PoliticsPublic Policy

Abacus Data Poll: As Parliament Resumes and on the Eve of Two Crucial Byelections, the Conservatives lead by 21

From September 5 to 12, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,964 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers, along with gauging the firmness of Conservative Party support. This survey was done entirely after Jagmeet Singh announced he was ending the Confidence and Supply Agreement with the Liberal government and after the recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada.

Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 21 over the Liberals

The gap between the Conservatives and Liberals has grown by 4 points since our last survey in August.

If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 35% of the vote in Quebec. The Liberal vote share is down 3, the Conservative share is up 1, while the NDP vote is unchanged.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, by 46 points in Alberta, 21 points in Saskatchewan, 21 points in Manitoba, 21 points in Ontario, and by 17 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 11 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.

Liberal support is higher among those aged 18 to 29 and 60+ than it is among those aged 30 to 59.

For the last three waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support. 49% of men would vote Conservative compared with 37% of women. Liberal support is consistent between men and women while NDP support is 7-points higher among women than among men.

The Conservative Party’s lead grows to 26-points if you look at the vote intention of only those certain to vote in the next election. The Conservatives would get 47% compared with 21% for the Liberals and 19% for the NDP. The Greens see the biggest hit to vote share losing almost half its vote.

Over the last few months the intensity of the country’s desire for change has also increased. 86% want change overall (unchanged), and 56% want change and believe there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (up 1 point and up 4 since July).  Only 14% of Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.

The federal government’s approval rating has also worsened.

Today, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 3 in a month) while dissaproval has reached a new high in our tracking at 62%.

The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister. As Parliament is set to reconvene on Monday and two key byelections are set to conclude, all while the Prime Minister insists he will not resign (even if the Liberals lose the Montreal byelection)( views of Justin Trudeau have reached a new low.

Today, 22% (down 2 points) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (up 2 points) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -39. The is the worst net score we have measured for Mr. Trudeau.

Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net favourable score is -45 in BC, -54 in Alberta, -40 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -34 in Ontario, -22 in Quebec, and -32 in Atlantic Canada.

Among those who voted Liberal in 2021, 22% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister.

And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives are also up. Since last month, those with a negative impression of Mr. Singh are up 3 while positive impressions are down 4. Mr. Singh now has a net impression of -9, his lowest ever in our tracking.

Most of the shift in views of Mr. Singh comes from current Liberal supporters. Compared with our last wave, negative impressions of Mr. Singh are up 11-points among Liberals (from 12% to 23%) and up three points among Conservative supporters (from 62% to 65%). Views are unchanged among current NDP supporters.

Among those who said they voted NDP in 2021, 67% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 11% have a negative impression. Compared with last month, positive impressions among past NDP supporters are down 5 while negatives unchanged.

In contrast to Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Singh, views of Mr. Poilievre are largely unchanged. 39% have a positive view (down 3 since early August) while his negatives are at 35% for a net score of +4.

Regionally, net scores for Mr. Poilievre are +18 in BC, +29 in Alberta, +15 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +6 in Ontario, -20 in Quebec, and +1 in Atlantic Canada.

Mr. Polievre is far more popular among those under 30 than those over 60. His net score is +11 with those aged 18 to 29, but -10 among those aged 60+.

How Firm is Conservative Party Support?

In this edition we asked current Conservative supporters whether there’s any possibility that they could change their mind in which party they would vote for. Overall, 62% of Conservative supporters say they will vote Conservative no matter what happens. This group represents 27% of the committed electorate at the moment. This is the floor for Conservative support.

Another 32% say they could change their mind, but it’s unlikely. This group is 14% of committed voters and when added to the 27% who are solid Conservatives adds up to 41%.

Only 6% of Conservative supporters indicate some likelihood that their minds could change which represents 2% of the committed electorate.

In short, Conservative support appears quite firm.

When we did a little deeper to explore the larger group of Conservative supporters who say they could change their mind, but it’s unlikely, a few insights emerge:

Trudeau’s net favourable score is -79, Jagmeet Singh’s net score is -34, while Pierre Poilievre’s net score is +76. Almost all of these voters dislike Trudeau, like Poilievre, but have more mixed views of Jagmeet Singh.

Only 2% believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected and 98% want a change in government. But 17% say they want change but there isn’t a good alternative to Trudeau and the Liberals. This subset may be parking their vote with the Conservatives right now, but could be persuaded if a better alternative to the Liberals, in their minds, emerges.

65% of this group are men, particularly men aged 30 to 44.

The distribution of this group regionally more or less matches the national population, except for a smaller proportion coming from Quebec.

From an issue perspective, 70% rate the cost of living as a top 3 issue and they are more likely to say immigration, the economy, and crime are top issues than the rest of the electorate.

When we look at their second choice preference, 22% say they have no second choice. 18% pick the NDP, 15% the People’s Party of Canada, and 13% the Liberals. 15% say they are unsure of their second choice.

If the Liberals and NDP could persuade these “slightly open to being persuaded” Conservative supporters to vote for their second choice, the new vote federal vote shares would be:

Conservative 39% (down 4)
Liberal 24% (up 2)
NDP 21% (up 3)

This suggests that even if they could persuade these Conservative supporters to switch, the Conservatives would still be leading by around 15%.

Would a Poilievre-led Conservative government make things better or worse?

To further understand perceptions about a possible Conservative government, we asked Canadians whether they thought several policy areas and outcomes would get better, worse, or not change if the Conservative Party wins the next election.

Overall, the results suggest that only a minority believe that anything will improve. But at the same time, only a minority think things would get worse. Most Canadians, on most outcomes tested, think things would not change much or they aren’t sure.

Areas where more Canadians think things would improve rather than get worse under a Conservative government are economic growth, the deficit, crime, management of immigration, and Canada’s reputation around the world.

Areas where Canadians are more likely to think things will get worse under a Conservative government are action on climate change, environmental protection, support for social programs like childcare and dental care, and efforts to address Indigenous issues and reconciliation.

But when we isolate three key groups, the insights become more clear. When we look at those who would vote Conservative today (43% of committed electors), expectations of improvement are more universal when it comes to Canada’s reputation globally, management of immigration, economic growth, the deficit, and housing affordability, In all of these cases, the net perception was +60 or higher.

Among Liberal/Conservative switchers, those who say they voted Liberal in 2021 but now support the Conservatives, the patterns are similar. These voters overwhelmingly think that things like the economy, the deficit, immigration, and housing affordability will improve under a Conservative government.

For Accessible CPC (those open to voting Conservative but don’t currently support the party), the Conservative strengths on the economy, fiscal management, and immigration while their vulnerabilities are national programs like childcare and dental care and healthcare. Climate and the environment are not major factors.

This data suggests a few things.

First, there are many Canadians who have not yet thought or know what to expect from a Conservative government. This is both a threat for the Conservatives and an opportunity for their opponents. There is still room to define and set perceptions. The challenge is that those who are voting Conservative feel fairly confident they know what a Conservative government will do. Changing their mind while the focus of their dissatisfaction (Justin Trudeau) is still leading the country will be difficult.

Second, right now, issues that might otherwise be vulnerabilities for the Conservatives – like climate change – are not right now because that issue isn’t as salient as the issues they perform better on. Unless that changes, we expect the Conservatives to continue to hold a sizeable advantage over the other parties.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As Parliament is set to resume tomorrow and two crucial byelections will be decided on the same day, the opinion environment has never been as bad for the incumbent Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau nor as good for the Conservatives.

Our tracking shows that Mr. Singh’s decision to end the Confidence and Supply Agreement has had no impact on NDP support. It has soured many Liberals to Mr. Singh, pushing his personal favourability scores to the lowest they have ever been.

At the same time, all the key trackers for Mr. Trudeau and his government are also more negative. His -39 net score is the worst we’ve measured. Only 22% of Canadians approve of the job his government is doing, also an all-time low. And perhaps most troubling, among those most certain to vote right now, the Conservatives are ahead by a crushing 25-points.

The Prime Minister and the Liberals come back to Parliament facing a population who wants change, is deeply unhappy with their performance, are no more optimistic about the direction of the country than when the summer started, and have never had as negative a view of the Prime Minister as it does today.

The Conservatives are ahead by such a large margin in part because of some affinity for Mr. Poilievre. His +4 net rating is the best among the three main party leaders. But what unites almost all of the Conservative voting coalition is a deep antipathy towards Justin Trudeau, rather than a deep affinity for Mr. Poilievre.

That being said, the Conservative vote right now is solid. Only 6% of the party’s supporters say they would probably change their mind. Everyone else is pretty locked in and don’t believe there’s much likelihood they will change their minds.

In this environment – where Canadians have decided what they don’t like and want less of and enough are convinced of what they do – the outcome of the next election looks more certain after each passing month.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,964 Canadian adults from September 5 to 12, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Should the Federal Government Intervene if Air Canada Pilots go on Strike?

From September 5 to 11, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,761 Canadian adults as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. On this survey, we asked two questions about the possibility of a pilot strike at Air Canada. These questions were paid for by the Air Canada Pilots Master Executive Council of ALPA.

The results find that 2 in 3 Canadians are aware of the possibility of a pilot of strike at Air Canada next week and only 1 in 3 believe the federal government should intervene in the labour dispute.

2 in 3 Canadian Aware that Air Canada Pilots Could Be on Strike Next Week

Sixty-eight percent of Canadians say they are aware that there is a chance that pilots working at Air Canada may go on strike. Awareness is consistent across the political support and is very high among those who are planning to fly on Air Canada in the coming week.

2 in 3 Canadians Don’t Believe the Federal Government Should Intervene in Labour Disputes

We asked Canadians:

If Air Canada’s pilots do strike, do you think the federal government should intervene and force the pilots back to work, or do you think it should respect their right to strike and force Air Canada to come to an agreement with their pilots, even if it leads to travel disruptions?

More Canadians (43%) feel that the federal government should respect the right of workers to strike, even if it leads to travel disruptions than feel the government should intereve (31%). Another 26% say they don’t have clear views either way.

Politically, a plurality or a majority of supporters of all the major political parties prefer the government doesn’t intervene and respects the right of workers to strike. 41% of Liberal supporters, 42% of Conservative supporters, and 58% of NDP supporters favour the government not intervening.

Among those who plan on flying on Air Canada next week, 56% want the government to intervene while 37% want the government to respect the right of workers to strike, even if it leads to travel disruptions.

The Upshot

Most Canadians are aware that Air Canada’s pilots may be on strike next week and few think the federal govermnent should intervene to prevent travel disruptions. Most striking is the relative consistency of opinion across the political spectrum.

It’s also noteworthy that even 1 in 3 of those who are likely to be most disrupted by a strike think the government should stay out of the dispute between pilots and their employer.

At this point, there is little public appetite for government intervention in this labour dispute and the cross-partisan consistency of results explains why both Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh have voiced support for pilots.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,761 Canadian adults from September 5 to 11, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.903%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by the Air Canada Pilots Master Executive Council of ALPA Canada.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics