BC NDP leads by 5 over BC Conservatives as Falcon’s tax cut pledge fails to deliver bounce so far.

From August 14 to 16, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 eligible voters in British Columbia exploring their views on provincial politics and government. This survey was a standalone survey in which questions about provincial politics came before any questions about federal politics. Stay tuned for results on the federal political questions.

The survey was also done entirely after BC United Leader Kevin Falcon announced that if elected, his party would cut provincial income taxes.

Current Provincial Vote Intention

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the BC NDP would likely win another majority government although the 18-point lead we measured in November of 2023 remains much tighter – at only 5 percentage over the BC Conservatives.

The BC NDP has the support of 42% of committed voters, a two point increase from May. The BC Conservatives are second with 37%, up 3 while the official opposition BC United is at 10%, down 3. The BC Greens are at 10%, changed from our last survey.

Among those British Columbians who say they are certain to vote, the BC NDP lead grows to 7-points with the NDP at 45%, the BC Conservatives at 38%, BC United at 9% and the Greens at 7%

Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 9-points in Metro Vancouver, by 9-points on Vancouver Island while the BC Conservatives are ahead by 11 in the Interior and Northern regions of the province.

The BC NDP continues to lead by 15 points among those aged 45 and over while trailing among those under 44. In fact, among those 60+, the BC NDP is ahead by 20-points, and that lead has grown, while millennials favour the BC Conservatives by 11-points (a gap that has also grown).

The BC NDP leads by 17 among women (47% to 30% for the BC Conservatives) and trails the BC Conservatives by 6-points among men. The gender gap in voting intentions has grown since our last survey in May.

When we compare current provincial vote intentions with reported vote in the 2022 provincial election, we find that the BC NDP has held onto 73% of its current vote with 21% of past NDP voters now saying they would vote for the BC Conservatives.

50% of past BC Liberal voters are voting BC Conservative now while 28% are sticking with BC United (formerly the BC Liberals). 1 in 5 BC Liberal voters are now voting NDP.

Has the Context Changed?

British Columbians remain somewhat more positive about the direction of the province than Canadians feel about the direction of the country and the mood is pretty much where things were in May.

29% of British Columbians feel the province is headed in the right direction. Half think its off on the wrong track.

Economic evaluations remain pretty statics from May. 17% describe the BC economy as excellent or good, up 1 from May while half feel it is poor or terrible, unchanged from the spring.

When we ask about incomes relative to the cost of living, we find some improvement in perceptions. Those who say they are falling behind are still the majority (61%) but is down 4 points since May.

Since May, we see an increase in those who definitely want to see a change in government. Today, 54% say they definitely want change, up 7-points since May while those in the middle categories dropped by 5 points.

1 in 5 British Columbians definitely want to see David Eby and the NDP re-elected, down a marginal one point since May.

In terms of leader impressions, Premier Eby continues to be the most popular provincial party leader. 39% have a positive impression (down 1 from May) while 26% have a negative view (down 1). for a net score of +13.

In comparison, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon is net -21 (worse than in May) with 16% positive and 37% negative. The income tax cut announcement doesn’t seem to have made much difference in improving impressions of Mr. Falcon, at least when compared to our last survey.

BC Greens Leader Sonia Furstenau is +2 with 23% positive and 22% negative while BC Conservative Leader John Rustad is +1 with 30% positive (up 5) and 29% negative (unchanged) for an overall slight improvement in his personal image.

When we ask people to rate the three issues facing the province, the cost of living, housing, and healthcare continue to be the top three issues. And they are the top three issues for pretty much all party supporters.

But we have seen a 4-point increase in those rating taxes as a top issue. Note, this question was asked before any questions about the BC United tax cut promise (see results below).

NDP supporters are more likely to rate housing, healthcare, and climate change as a top issue while Conservative supporters are more likely to rate the cost of living, drug addiction, taxes, and the economy as a top issue.

When we ask those who rated an issue in their top 3 which party is best able to handle it, we find the BC Conservatives with a slight 4-point advantage over the NDP on the cost of living. The NDP leads by 13-points on housing, 12-points on healthcare, and 17-points on poverty and homelessness.

The BC Conservatives have a 17-point advantage among those who rate drug addiction as a top issue, and a 10-point lead on taxes.

Of note, despite the tax cut pledge, only 10% of those who care about taxes say BC United is better able to handle the issue, 14-points behind the NDP and 24-points behind the Conservatives.

On climate and the environment, 46% of those who care most about that issue think the BC Greens are best able to handle the issue followed by the BC NDP at 27%.

Awareness and Reaction to the BC United Tax Cut Pledge

In this survey, we also asked several questions about the income tax promise made by BC United Leader Kevin Falcon on Tuesday, August 13.

Within 3 days of the announcement, about 4 in 10 British Columbians say they are aware of the announcement. Awareness was higher among those who would vote BC United today (53%). This level of awareness is pretty high based on our experience.

But support for BC United is only marginally higher among those aware of the promise than those unaware suggesting the announcement has had little impact so far and if awareness increases, it may not change voting intentions.

This is despite the fact that most British Columbians think the promise is a good idea (60%) compared with 24% who think it’s a bad idea. Even a half of NDP supporters think the tax cut idea is a good idea.

However, when we tell respondents that the tax cut proposal would cost about $5.4 billion and Mr. Falcon stated this cost would be covered by finding and eliminating government waste, many British Columbians were skeptical.

Only 9% of BCers think it is definitely possible to implement the proposed tax cut without cutting services or raising other fees or taxes. Another 28% think it’s probably possible. Half of British Columbians believe it’s probably or definitely not possible to achieve, including half of BC Conservative supporters and 1 in 3 BC United supporters.

Will the tax cut promise move votes? So far, the evidence in this survey is that it hasn’t. BC United has a lower vote share in this survey than in our previous May survey.

However, when we ask people whether the promise makes them more or less likely to vote for BC United, 1 in 4 say yes. But far more say they are either less likely to vote BC United (15%) or the promise won’t impact their vote (45%).

Those who aren’t currently supporting BC United and say they are more likely to support BC United because of the tax cut promise represent 21% of the electorate. That’s a sizeable portion.

In 2022, 31% of this group voted NDP, 24% BC Liberal, 4% Green, 5% for another party and 35% didn’t vote.

So although the promise hasn’t yet had any impact on BC United vote share or feelings towards Kevin Falcon, it still may.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data founder, Chair & CEO, David Coletto:As we head towards October’s provincial election in BC, the BC NDP remain the favourites to win thanks to their advantage in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island and the party’s lead among those most likely to vote.

The split on the centre-right continues to help the BC NDP, even as the BC Green vote holding together, makes the race tigher.

If voters perceive the election to be much closer, especially as move towards Election Day, we should expect even more consolidation between the two parties people expect to be in a winning position.

Premier Eby continues to have a net positive impression despite an intensifying desire for change. Conservative Leader John Rustad has slightly higher negatives, but he too has a relatively good personal image, especially when compared to BC United leader Kevin Falcon.

Mr. Falcon’s bold pledge to cut provincial income taxes has yet to change minds about him or a willingness to vote for his party. In May, 36% of British Columbians said they were open to voting BC United. Today, that number is largely unchanged at 35%. So far, this so-called “Hail Mary” play has yet to bear any political fruit for official opposition leader.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters living in British Columbia from August 14 to 16, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched BC’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Provincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: More Canadians Believe Kamala Harris Will Win Presidential Election Than Do Donald Trump

As the US political landscape rapidly shifted over the past three weeks, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults, from July 31 to August 7, 2024, to explore their impressions of US presidential candidates. We also asked which candidate is more likely to win the election.

In terms of positive impressions, Vice President Kamala Harris has a significant favourable advantage among Canadians with a net impression of +27. More specifically, positive impressions of Vice President Harris more than double negative impressions (48% vs 21%).

In clear contrast, impressions of former President Donald Trump are overwhelming negative with a net score of -37. 61% of surveyed Canadians hold a negative impression, with nearly 50% holding a “very negative” impression, while only 24% hold a positive impression.

For former President Trump’s running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, impressions are somewhat mixed. While a majority of Canadians have negative perception of the VP candidate (with 38%) and a net score of -24, 26% of Canadians report not knowing enough yet to have an opinion and 22% have neutral impressions.

For context, Joe Biden’s net favourable score in Canada right now is -12 with 27% positive and 39% negative.

Positive impressions of Vice President Harris are particularly high among those 60-and-over (with 61%), while only 37% of younger Canadians, those 18-to-29, hold positive impressions of the candidate. Interestingly, there is almost no gender gap, as positive impressions are nearly the same among men and women.

Regionally, Canadians are more likely to have a positive impression of Vice President Harris in nearly all provinces, with the exception of Alberta, where 33% hold a negative impression. Still, those with a negative impression in Alberta are statistically tied with those who hold a positive impression. Harris also enjoys positive impressions with a clear majority of Liberal and NDP supporters (68% and 65% respectively), while more Conservatives hold a negative view than a positive one (although 33% of Conservative supporters say they have a favourable impression of Harris).

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Across all demographic, regional, and political groups, a majority of Canadians have a negative impression of Donald Trump.

In terms of age, positive impressions of former President Trump are highest among those 30-to-44 and 45-to-59 (with 30%), while an overwhelming 78% of those 60-and-over have a negative impression. A higher percentage of women hold negative impressions of former President Trump (64%), compared to men (58%).

Among Conservative supporters, 38% hold a positive view of Trump while 43% have a negative view, which is comparable to the 34% of respondents in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and 31% in Alberta.

In contrast, 80% of NDP supporters and 69% of Liberal supporters hold a negative impression of Trump.

Who do Canadians think will win the US presidential election?

More Canadians believe Kamala Harris will win the election than do those who think Trump will win. 41% think Harris will win compared with 33% who think Trump will win. 1 in 4 are unsure.

Conservative supporters and Albertans are most likely to predict a Trump victory while every other regional, demographic, and political group believes Harris will win.

The Upshot

A majority of Canadians, across nearly all demographic groups, hold a negative impression of former President Donald Trump, as he remains an unpopular and controversial political figure. in Canada In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris is widely liked and would be the most popular political leader in Canada if she was leader of a Canadian political party. For context, she is also much more favourably viewed than President Joe Biden, even after he announced he was not running for re-election.

Impressions of both Harris and Trump, however, are related to age and political affiliation. Harris is particularly popular among older Canadians, as well as Liberal and NDP supporters. For Conservative supporters, impressions of Trump are more evenly distributed.

With President Joe Biden withdrawing from the US presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a surge in support among the American electorate, and Democrats are now more confident in their chances of winning the next election. We find that a majority of Canadians believe Harris is more like to become the next US president. suggesting the rapidly evolving election in the United States is being watched closely by Canadians and views about the outcome have shifted to favour the Democratic candidate.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from July 31 to August 7, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.489%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 20 as positive impressions of Pierre Poilievre rise

From July 31 to August 7, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we ask about the most important issues facing Canadians, along with our usual trackers.

Vote Intention: Conservatives continue ahead, lead by 20 over the Liberals

In what is now a persistent trend (and now the sixteenth survey in a row), the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals remains close to 20 points.

If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 23% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ holds 30% in Quebec.

Every party’s vote share is consistent with our last survey, with very minor changes, as the Conservatives are up 1 and the NDP are down 2. These changes are also within the margin of error.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead in all provinces or regions and in this survey are statistically tied with the BQ in Quebec.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Outside Quebec, the Conservatives have a 25-point lead over the Liberals and are close to earning half of those who are committed to a political party at the moment. The Liberals and the NDP are statistically tied outside Quebec.

As vote intention remains relatively stable, Conservatives remain ahead among all demographic groups. Conservative support remains high among 30-to-44 (2 points down from our last survey) and 42% among 60-and-over (no changes).

Still, there is a small change from our last survey. Conservative support among those 45-to-59 increased 7 points, as support for the NDP shrunk slightly (4 points down) and support for the Liberals remans steady.

As we have consistently found in recent surveys, there is little difference in vote intention between men and women. Liberal vote share is slightly higher among men than women while the NDP does better among women than men. The Conservative vote share is consistent regardless of gender.

Poilievre’s positive impressions rise, as Conservatives’ accessible voter pools widens

While we have not seen any noticeable shift in vote intention, there have been other notable changes.

The size of the Conservative Party’s accessible voter pools has increased. Today the Conservative pool is 16-points larger than the Liberal one. 55% of Canadians say they are open to voting Conservative compared with 39% for the Liberals. 42% are open to voting for the NDP.

As the Conservatives work to grow their support by going after past Liberal, NDP, and BQ supporters, here’s the percentage of each of those party’s CURRENT supporters who are open to voting Conservative:

24% of Liberal supporters are open to voting Conservative (5% of the electorate)
20% of NDP supporters are open to voting Conservative (3% of the electorate)
10% of BQ supporters are open to voting Conservative (1% of the electorate)

In contrast, when we look at CURRENT Conservative, NDP, and BQ supporters, the following percentages are open to voting Liberal:

9% of Conservative supporters are open to voting Liberal (3% of the electorate)
41% of NDP supporters are open to voting Liberal (7% of the electorate)
20% of BQ supporters are open to voting Liberal (1% of the electorate)

Along with growth in its accessible voter pool, impressions of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre have also improved.

Today, 42% of Canadians have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre (the highest we have ever measured) compared with 35% who have a negative view. The net score of +7 is close to the highest we have measured for the Conservative leader. Over the summer, Mr. Poilievre’s positive impressions have increased by 4 points.

At the same time, we have not seen any change in how people feel about Justin Trudeau. Today, 25% have a positive view and 58% have a negative one for a net score of -33. Negative views of the Prime Minister have ranged between 57% to 59% consistently since the start of the year.

We have also seen a shift in views about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Today, 37% have a negative view of Mr. Singh, the hghest we have recorded compared with 33% who have a positive view for a net score of -4. This may indicate that the Conservative Party ads against Mr. Singh, may be putting pressure on his image. Among current CPC supporters, 63% have a negative impression of Mr. Singh compared with only 11% who have a positive view. Among NDP supporters open to voting Conservative (6% of the electorate), 41% have a positive impression, 41% neutral, and 16% negative towards Mr. Singh.

Other Measures

Beyond vote intention, the desire for change remains largely consistent and within the margin of error. 84% want change, with 53% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (down 1).

Negative impressions of the federal government’s performance are trending down with 57% disapproving (down 3 since July) and 27% approving (up 2).

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

Most important issues facing Canadians

In this edition, we also asked Canadians about the most important policy issues today. We changed the list of items adding in the prospect of another Trump presidency and job security and removing Chinese election interference and freedom in Canada.

As in previous surveys, the majority of Canadians (64%) believe the rising cost of living is among the 3 most important issues, followed by healthcare (44%) and housing affordability and accessibility (43%).

The top three issues for Conservative supporters are the cost of living, the economy, and housing. They are more likely to rate immigration, political correctness, and crime as a top issue than other party supporters and far less likely to rate climate change as a top issue.

Liberal supporters rate the cost of living, healthcare, and housing as their top three issues. They are more likely to rate climate change and the environment and another Trump presidency as a top issue than other party supporters.

NDP supporters rate the cost of living, housing, and healthcare as their top three issues and overindex on inequality and poverty and climate change and the environment.

In this edition, we also asked about job security and the possibility of another Trump presidency. In both cases, only 10% of Canadians believe either issue is among the top 3. This, however, differs considerably among party supporters.  While 18% of Liberal supporters believe another Trump presidency is a top issue, only 5% of Conservative supporters believe so.

When we ask those who rated an issue as a top issue which party they think will best handle the issue, the Conservatives lead on 4 of the top 6 issues (cost of living, housing, economy, and immigration). The Conservatives and NDP are tied on healthcare while the Liberals are slightly ahead of the Greens among those who care most about climate change and the environment.

The Liberals are in third on the cost of living, housing, and immigration and trail the Conservatives by 34 among those who rate the economy as a top issue.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As August begins, the political opinion environment looks almost exactly as it was when summer started and even when the year started.

There remains a deep and broad desire for change. Canadians remain focused on affordability issues and healthcare, and the Prime Minister trails the opposition leaders on net favourability by a wide margin.

If we use this poll to assess who is winning and losing the summer so far, it’s clear the Conservatives are. They continue to not only hold onto their 20-point lead but are making important gains in what I believe are more important underlying metrics.

Views of Pierre Poilievre are improving (hitting the highest level of positive impressions we have ever measured) and more Canadians are now open to voting Conservative than at any point since the 2015 federal election. Growing the pool of accessible voters and protecting Mr. Poilievre’s image are essential to holding current supporters but more importantly, gives the party room to expand its vote share. With a massive fundraising advantage, the Conservatives are able to be on the offensive against all three of its main opponents – the Liberals, NDP, and BQ and there’s evidence in this survey that their strategy is working.

For the Liberals, this survey continues to offer little in the way of good news. There’s been no progress in shifting public opinion about the Prime Minister. As I noted in my last analysis, the relationship between how people feel abotu Trudeau and how they intend to vote is strong and has not changed since 2015. Unless they can change how people feel about the Prime Minister, the path back to competitiveness will be very difficult.

And there doesn’t appear to be any impact of the rapid shift in American politics. The excitement for Kamala Harris in the US and the re-engagement of Democrats there has not had any discernable impact on Canadian public opinion.

We will have new data out shortly that shows Kamala Harris’ net favourable far exceeds any political leader in Canada already. Even among Conservative supporters, there’s considerable positive feelings toward her. That has not carried over to Trudeau or Singh.

For the NDP, these results should highlight the fragility of its coalition. Mr. Singh’s negatives are rising (to the highest point we have ever measured) and the sustained assault on his image by the Conservatives could cost the party considerable support. 1 in 5 of current NDP supporters are open to voting Conservative and 1 in 10 say the Conservative Party is their second choice. That vote is likely highly concentrated in ridings where even a few point swing could flip several NDP seats to the Conservatives.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from July 31 to August 7, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.489%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Abacus Data Ontario Poll: LCBO strike seems to have had little impact on Ontario’s political opinions. PCs lead Liberals by 18.

From July 16 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explore impressions of party leaders, along with our usual trackers.

Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 18 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals

If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP closely behind at 19%, and the Greens at 7%.  

PC vote share is up 3 points since last month, the highest point since our tracking started in November 2022.

The Ontario PCs also lead across the province. They are ahead by 14 points ahead in Toronto, 11 in the GTHA, 31 in southwestern Ontario, and 17 in eastern Ontario. The strong support in Toronto may be related to the focus and attention the Premier has personally given to the city.

Compared to our last survey, the Ontario PCs continue to gain ground in southwestern Ontario (rising by 4 points) and Toronto (rising by 4 points). For the Ontario NDPs support is slightly down across most regions and 5 points down in southwestern Ontario. Ontario Liberals hold steady.

The Ontario PCs continue to lead across all demographic groups.

They are well ahead among men at 46% (2 points up) and among women at 39% (2 points up). The gap between the PCs and the Liberals, among women, as held from our last survey when support for the PCs increased 6 points.

This month, Ontario PCs’ also lead over the Liberals by 19 points, among those 60+ and by 22 points among those 45-to-59.

In a change from our last survey, among those 18-to-29, support for the PCs increased by 3 points, while support for the Liberals increased 8 points. This increase coincides with a change in support for the NDP, down 7 points.

Doug Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady and show little change. 34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (1 point down), he has net score of -9. This represents a 1-point increase since last month.

In contrast, impressions of opposition party leaders have shifted since our last survey. NDP leader Marit Stiles has a net score of -1 (it was +4 in the last survey), and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net score of +1 (it was +5 in the last survey). For Ontario Liberal Party leader, Bonnie Crombie, impressions decreased, with a net impression of -6 (4 points down).

Provincial Government Approval Holds Steady

Today, 33% of Ontarians say they approve of the job performance of Doug Ford and the provincial government, down 1-point from last month while those disapproving is also down 1-point.

The LCBO Strike

In this survey, we also asked some questions about the LCBO strike.

Overall, 16% of Ontarians say they were following the strike closely with another 38% following it pretty closely. 5% of Ontarians didn’t know there was even a strike happening, including 14% of those under 30.

When asked how the strike makes them feel, 4% said they are very happy, 12% are pleased, 54% say they are indifferent to it, 24% are disappointed while 6% are angry.

Interestingly, current PC Party supporters were the most likely to be disappointed or angry, suggesting the PCs did benefit from the strike and seem to have successful framed it in a positive way for the government.

The Upshot

The strike at the LCBO strike has not had a noticeable impact on Premier Ford’s image or the Ontario PCs vote share. In fact, the PC vote share has increased to its highest point since our tracking started in November 2022. Demographically and regionally, the PCs are also well ahead.

Our data show that Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady. He’s not loved but not deeply unpopular either. Impressions over time show that Ford continues to do what a lot of other incumbents aren’t doing – holding a lead despite the economic situation.

Ford’s lead with everyone and everywhere also reflect a divided opposition. Since the election of Bonnue Crombie the Ontario Liberal vote share in unchanged and we’ve seen a slight worsening of Ms. Crombie’s personal image. The Ontario NDP remains in third place with many Ontarians having a neutral or no opinion of its leader Marit Stules.

All in, the 18-points lead shows that Ford Nation is holding together and that, at this point, he’s in the driver seat. However, there is risk in these numbers. The government’s approval rating is modest and the opposition leaders are not well known. These suggests uncertainty around how voters react if and when they are engaged during what many believe will be an early provincial election.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from July 16 to 21, 2024.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Civil war in the US? And, is there an age when political leadership should step aside?

Everything is political, eh? I think so, and that’s why I’m excited to share news of a new partnership between Abacus Data and GZERO Media. GZERO Media is a company dedicated to providing the public with intelligent and engaging coverage of global affairs. It was created in 2017 as a subsidiary of Eurasia Group, the world’s leading political risk analysis firm.

Over the next 100 days and beyond, we will be partnering with GZERO Media and it’s flagship GZERO North newsletter to ask Canadians and Americans interesting, different, and at times uncoventional questions about the Canada-US relationship, American politics, the US election, and global affairs.

Today, we released some new polling from a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 21, 2024.

In that survey, we asked three specific questions:

1: What is the likelihood that the United States goes into a civil war?

2: Do you think there should be a maximum age for someone who is Prime Minister or President?

3: (if yes) What do you think that age limit should be?

Here’s what we found:

Is American heading towards a civil war?

A sizeable portion of Canadians think its at least somewhat likely that the United States will go into a civil war. 4 in 10 Canadians think it’s at least somewhat likely with 12% thinking its very likely. Another 4 in 10 think it’s unlikely to happen while 19% are unsure.

Younger Canadians, women, and those who support the NDP are more likely to think it’s possible the United States will be go into a civil war at some point. Given the deep divisions, polarization, and political violence in the United States, Canadians are watching and many believe the worst could happen.

Is there a best before date for political leaders?

Most Canadians think there is. 7 in 10 Canadians believe there should be a maximum age for someone who is Prime Minister or President. Of those, the average maximum age is around 65 years with almost half believing the age is somewhere between 61 and 70 years of age.

Although there is little political difference of opinion on the age limit for political leadership, there is a sharp generational one. Younger Canadians are more likely to think the maximum age for political leaders should be lower than older Canadians.

THE UPSHOT

Most Canadians think political leaders have a best before date, and the average age of a president or prime minister is around the usual age of retirement – 65.

The whole Joe Biden saga put into clear perspective the effect aging can have on- especially in chief executives – charged with the most important executive functions in a country or the world. It sparked a debate about the capacity of leaders and most think there should be a maximum age in the same way we have a minimum age to be elected or be chief executive.

Beyond the age of political leaders, Canadians are also watching the increasing polarization and political violence in the US and many of them are not shutting the door to that division escalating into full scale civil war.

Younger Canadians in particular are inclined to think that the very worst outcome is at least a possibility.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.191%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

The Youth Shift: Understanding the Drift Away from the Liberals

From June 20 to 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,926 Canadian adults (18+) to examine the effects of the current cost of living and housing crisis on young Canadians. Additionally, we present data from our latest political outlook survey, collected between July 16 and 22, 2024, to shed light on recent voting intentions and perceptions of the top issues facing Canadians today.

The results reveal the main factors driving young Canadians away from the Liberal Party and boosting their support for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. Results reveal how current economic challenges are shifting young Canadians’ priorities and political views, emphasizing the urgent need for effective measures and actions to address their concerns and provide meaningful relief.

Vote Share by Age

Over the past year, there has been a notable shift in Canada’s political landscape, particularly evident among younger demographics. Once a cornerstone of support that propelled Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party to success, younger voters have now emerged as a major concern for the Liberals. Our analysis of post-2015 election data, along with trends from 2018 to today, reveals a significant decline in overall support for the Liberal Party, most prominently among Canadians aged 18-35.

The data paints a clear picture: Support among young Canadians, which peaked at 41% in 2015 and 34% in early 2021, has dwindled to just 22% today. This demographic, which played a significant role in securing Liberal majorities in 2015 and preventing defeats in 2019 and 2021, has shown a diminishing attraction for Mr. Trudeau and his party.

It’s important to recognize that this trend isn’t confined solely to younger voters but reflects a broader shift away from the Liberal Party across all age groups, with the most pronounced decline observed among the youth.

Conversely, examining support among 18-35 year olds, the Conservative Party of Canada, led by Pierre Poilievre, has capitalized on this shift. The Conservatives have seen the largest increase in support from young Canadians, with 37% of those aged 18-35 indicating they would vote for the Conservative Party if an election were held today. This is in stark contrast to the 22% who would vote for the Liberal Party.

Top Issues Facing Young Canadians

The rise in support for the Conservative Party aligns with growing concerns among younger Canadians about housing costs, the economy, and the overall cost of living. Young Canadians are disproportionately affected by the housing crisis and are more likely to prioritize economic issues over healthcare, immigration, and climate change. Inequality and poverty also rank high on their list of priorities.

When considering who young Canadians believe is best suited to address the top issues facing the country today, the Conservative Party leads in handling the cost of living, housing, and the economy—the three most important issues to this demographic. In contrast, the Liberal Party is at a significant disadvantage on these key issues.

Impact of the Cost of Living and Housing Crisis on Canadians

Looking deeper, our research highlights the significant impact of the cost of living and housing crisis on young Canadians compared to older Canadians. Many of those who are 18-35 years old have been forced to delay major life events, such as buying a home (34%), renting a home (32%), having children 25%), pursuing post-secondary education (26%), and even getting married (18%).

Young Canadians also appear to be disproportionately impacted financially—they are more likely to skip meals or reduce food quality to save money (37%) and express challenges paying bills on time (36%). Further, they are more likely to resort to selling personal items to help cover their day-to-day expenses (29%).

Additionally, many young Canadians have been forced to adjust their living arrangements due to the cost of living and housing crisis. Specifically, 21% have delayed purchasing a home, while 23% have opted to rent instead of buy. Furthermore, 19% indicate that they have moved in with family or friends.

Taken together, the housing crisis has caused severe stress in 1 in 3 Canadians (36%), with 9 in 10 (91%) experiencing some degree of stress caused by the situation. This impact is even more pronounced among young Canadians, with 45% of those aged 18-35 reporting significant to extreme stress due to the housing crisis.

These challenges highlight the pervasive and multifaceted impact of economic pressures on young Canadians, fundamentally altering their life trajectories and financial stability.

THE UPSHOT

The current housing and cost of living crisis has hit young Canadians hard, reshaping their financial realities and political views. Once solid supporters of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party (and a cohort that helped push the Liberals to wins in 2019 and 2021), younger Canadians have shifted their vote intentions away from the Liberals more than older cohorts from about 41% in 2015 to just 22% today. Economic pressures have forced many to delay major life events and struggle with everyday expenses, pushing them to prioritize immediate relief over other issues, including climate change.

The political implication of this shift can’t be underscored enough. The Liberals cannot win without the support of younger Canadians and they are feeling the effect of the inflation and cost of living challenges more than any other age cohort.

In response, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, has gained significant ground among young Canadians who have sought an alternative. That shift may not be grounded in a complete understanding of what the Conservatives will do or whether their policy choices will lead to different outcomes, but young Canadians have likely concluded that change may be the only way to try and change the world that confronts them. And we see evidence of his in their view that the Conservatives are best able to handle the most pressing issues facing them: housing, affordability, and the economy.

The economic struggles faced by young Canadians have changed both their daily lives and their voting preferences. This highlights the urgent need for policies that tackle their specific issues and offer real relief and more, efforts to shift their mindset away from concern and zero-sum thinking to a wider appreciation for the efforts governments – at all levels – are genuinely making to make life easier.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,925 Canadian adults from June 20 and 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsGenerational Change

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 19 over the Liberals as party leader and government approval ratings hold steady.

From July 16 to 22, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. This survey was conducted before the Bank of Canada announced an interest rate cut Wednesday morning.

In this edition, we ask Canadians our core tracking questions.

It is worth noting, that about a year ago, our July 2023 poll, conducted before the federal cabinet shuffle, showed the Conservatives opening up a much wider lead over the Liberals. At the time, the Bank of Canada had hiked its interest rates. A year later, the Liberals trail by almost 20 points and have trailed by around this margin for most of that period.

Vote Intention: Conservatives continue ahead, lead Liberals by 19

For the sixth survey in a row, the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals remains consistent.

If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 23% would vote for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.

Every party’s vote share is consistent with our last survey, with very minor changes, as the Conservatives are down 1 and the NDP are up 2, and all within the margin of error.

Regionally, the Conservatives are also well ahead in every region apart from Quebec.

From our last survey, the Conservatives’ lead over the Liberals in BC, Ontario and SK/MB continues to hold steady. In Alberta support for the NDP increased 5 points (a Nenshi bounce?) from our last survey, but Conservatives remain ahead by 30 points.

In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of both the Conservatives and Liberals who are statistically tied in the province.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all groups, as vote intention remains relatively stable. Conservative support remains high at 44% among 45-to-39 (1 point down from our last survey) and 45% among 30-to-44 (2 points up).

Still, there is a small change from our last survey. Conservative support among 18-to-29 is down 3 points (34% vs 37%), as support for the Liberals recovers from the last survey (7 points up) and support for the NDP shrinks slightly (5 points down).

As we have consistently found in recent surveys, there is little difference in vote intention between men and women. The gender gap has grown slightly as Conservative support among women is down 2 points.

With no shifts in vote intentions, the size of the party’s accessible voter pools remains similarly stable. The Conservative pool is 12-points larger than the Liberal’s.

Desire for change continues, as impressions of political party leaders hold steady.

Beyond vote intention, the desire for change remains largely consistent and within the margin of error. 84% want change (down 1 point), with 54% believing there’s a good alternative to the Liberals (up 2 points).

Impressions of Justin Trudeau remain negative and show no changes from our last survey. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, while 24% have a positive view for a net score of -35.

In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also steady, although slightly more positive than in our last survey – 39% have a positive impression (1 up from our last survey), while 36% have a negative impression (1 point down) for a net score of +3.

Impressions of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also steady with 33% positive and 36% negative for a net score of -3.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

With vote intention stable and impressions negatively consistent for Prime Minister Trudeau, and positive for Mr. Poilievre, a majority of Canadians (52%) believe Conservatives will win the next federal election. Less than 20% believe Liberals can do so. This is a slight increase in expectations of a Conservative victory and the highest we have measured since we started asking the question.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As summer rolls on, political opinions Canada are holding steady with little if any change in vote intentions, impressions of party leaders, or how people feel about the government’s job performance.

This survey was conducted before the Bank of Canada’s announcement to cut interest rates, and so we don’t know whether this second rate cut will have an effect on public sentiment.

About a year ago, after the final interest hike, our survey showed the Conservatives opening up a much wider lead over the Liberals. A year later, the Liberals remain almost 20 points behind, while regionally and demographically, they struggle to re-gain ground – trailing across all age groups and in all regions of the country.

The biggest insight from this poll is the growing number of Canadians who believe the Conservatives will win the next election. 52% of all adults, 55% of those who voted in 2021, and 55% of Liberal switchers (those who voted Liberal in 2021 but today say they wouldn’t vote Liberal or are undecided), think the Conservatives will win the next election when it comes.

Given that impressions of Justin Trudeau are strongly related to vote intentions, we shouldn’t expect the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives to close unless views of the Prime Minister improve.

I’ll be writing more about this relationship over on my data lab newsletter this weekend.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from July 16 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.191%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Federal vs Provincial Governments: Which is doing a better job?

Yesterday, Canada’s premiers gathered in Nova Scotia for Council of the Federation meeting. In anticipation of this event, we asked some new questions on our latest national omnibus survey exploring perceptions about which level of government – federal or provincial – Canadians believe is best able to handle several high-profile issues.

We also explored the idea of “change” asking respondents if they would vote to re-elect or change the federal government, their provincial government, and their mayor.

Here’s what we found:

Which Level of Government is doing a Better Job at…?

Canadians have mixed views on which level of government is doing a better job on the items we tested.

The provincial government is, on average, seen as doing a better job by more people when it comes to ‘ensuring public safety and security” (43% to 27%), “helping to build as many new homes as possible” (40% to 27%), “helping you manage the cost of living” (34% to 29%), and “keeping your taxes as low as possible” (34% to 29%).

In contrast, the federal government is seen as doing a better job at “growing the economy” (37% to 33%) and “addressing climate change” (45% to 22%).

About 1 in 3 Canadians were unsure which level of government was doing a better job on all the items tested.

Looking at the regional results gives us a better sense of how provincial governments are doing vis-a-vis the federal government. There are some noteworthy differences.

Except for addressing climate change, Albertans are more likely to believe their provincial government is doing a better job than the federal government on all of the areas we tested. Albertans are the only subpopulation to believe their provincial government is doing a better job than the federal government at growing the economy (49% to 27%), Every other regional population believes the federal government is doing better than their provincial government.

On climate change, the federal government leads by 26-points in Atlantic Canada, 22-points in Quebec, 30-points in Ontario, 14-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 6-points in Alberta, and 6-points in BC over the provincial government.

On the cost of living, the top issue for most Canadians at the moment, the provincial government leads by 12-points in BC, 28-points in Alberta, 8-points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and 2-points in Ontario. In Quebec, the federal government is ahead by 3-points on the issue, and in Atlantic Canada, the two levels of government are basically tied.

Following this question, we asked Canadians: “The next time you have a chance to vote in a provincial municipal, or federal election, would you vote to re-elect or change the government you have?” 

This is the first time we’ve asked this question so we don’t have any comparisons from earlier research, but the results are telling: The desire for change at the federal level is far higher than either the provincial or municipal one.

61% of Canadians say they will vote to change the government the next time they vote in a federal election compared with 46% at the provincial level and 36% at the municipal level.

The regional picture is most interesting.

When it comes to the federal government, majorities in every region of the country would vote to change the federal government from a high of 75% in Alberta, to 62% in Ontario, 60% in BC, to a low of 52% in Atlantic Canada and Quebec.

Provincially or regionally, a plurality of Canadians in every region, except in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, would vote to change their provincial government but there is significant variation across the country.

In BC, 37% would vote to re-elect the Eby NDP government while 41% would vote for change. In Alberta, 41% would vote to re-elect Danielle Smith’s UCP while 43% would vote for change. In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 40% would vote to re-elect their provincial government while 34% would vote for change. The re-elect number in Manitoba is notably higher in Manitoba than Saskatchewan (45% vs. 34%).

In Ontario, 49% are voting for change next time there’s a provincial election while 29% would vote for change. The results are similar in Quebec, 50% voting for change while 28% would vote to re-elect Legault’s CAQ government.

In Atlantic Canada, 44% are voting for change while 33% are voting to re-elect the incumbent. Obviously, there is likely some variation across the region, but smaller sample sizes makes a comparison difficult but qualitatively, the desire for change seems higher in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador than it does in Nova Scotia or PEI.

In terms of municipal change (specifically a mayor), results are fairly consistent regionally. About a third or more are not sure how they will vote with change being higher in Alberta, BC, and Ontario.

In Toronto (one of the few cities we have large enough sample sizes), 25% would vote to re-elect Olivia Chow while 45% would vote for change. 31% are unsure.

In the GTHA, 32% would vote to re-elect their mayors while 37% would vote for change.

In Eastern Ontario (mostly Ottawa), 36% would vote to re-elect their mayor while 22% would vote for change. 43% are unsure.

In Montreal, 28% would vote to re-elect Valerie Plante while 51% would vote for change.

In the Greater Vancouver region, 23% would vote to re-elect their mayor while 37% would vote for change. 40% in the GVA are unsure how they would vote.

So what does this all mean?

Although the federal government’s approval rating is close to the lowest it’s been since the Trudeau government was elected in 2015, it’s wrong to assume that people believe their provincial government is doing better on several policy areas.

This poll shows that there isn’t a wide gap on many items (especially the cost of living). The provinces have an edge on public safety and housing while the feds have a big advantage on climate change and a noteworthy edge on managing the economy. But the results are more likely indicative of a generally dissatisfaction with all levels of government at the moment.

But there is also no denying just how challenging the environment is for the federal Liberals. The change vs. re-elect question provides ample evidence to suggest that the federal Liberals are in a much weaker position than any provincial government at the moment.

Six in ten Canadians would vote to change the federal government. That’s at least 9-points higher than any provincial government – including those in Quebec and Ontario.

For the provinces facing provincial elections this fall – BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick – the results suggest that the incumbents there have a clear shot at being re-elected.

David Eby’s NDP and Scott Moe’s Sask Party are likely in the better positions when compared with Blaine Higgs’ NB PCs. But none of them should assume they are safe given the mood of the country and the impact that the public’s scarcity mindset can mean for incumbents.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,989 Canadian adults from July 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Do you know who this is? The Implications of Recognizability in Canadian Politics

Yesterday, we released our latest tracking poll on Canadian politics that found the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 20-points.

Today, we are sharing something slightly different. On the weekend, the Toronto Star (our media partner), reported on some new questions we asked in the same survey conducted from July 4 to 9, 2024 with almost 2,000 Canadian adults.

Basically, we showed respondents several pictures of federal party leaders, senior cabinet ministers, and prospective Liberal leadership candidates and asked whether they could name the person in the picture.

Why do this?

One, it’s a different way of gauging awareness and familiarity with a political leader. If someone doesn’t recognize a picture of someone, it’s likely they don’t have a strong opinion of that person outside of the bias that might come with knowing what their job or title is.

For example, I may not know who the Minister of Housing is (it’s Sean Fraser) but when I’m asked my opinion of the Minister of Housing in a survey, my impressions may be entirely based on how I think they may be performing in the job. If I think housing is a crisis, I might then think the minister responsible must be doing a poor job.

Pollsters can also ask people whether they recognize a name or ask them to name the person who holds a particularly position. In our case, being able to recognize someone from a picture tells us a lot about what someone might know and think about that person.

Two, I think there is a lot we can learn about a whole lot of political decisions or phenomomen from this exercise. Three in particularly stand out to me.

First, there’s a lot of discussion about whether a cabinet shuffle will or won’t change Liberal fortunes. The Globe and Mail is now reporting that the PMO may shuffle Chrystia Freeland out of Finance. but If most Canadians can’t recognize a federal cabinet minister or even the Minister of Finance from a photo, should we expect a shuffle to make any meaningful difference to how people feel about the government or say, the Prime Minister?

Second, if Justin Trudeau does step down, who is best positioned to replace him? By testing familiarity and recognition of some of the candidates, we can get an instant read of how a particular candidate might perform and assess whether anyone has a shot of reviving Liberal fortunes. Perhaps even more useful, tt also will tell us whether it’s even possible to know how Canadians would react to a new leader unless that new leader is already a household name.

How can you know how a new Liberal would do, if say only 1 in 5 people even can recognize them in a picture?

Finally, by testing photo recognition, we can understand whether impressions of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative lead in the polls is firm or filmsy. Are Canadians, as the Prime Minister argued, “not in decision mode” or do they have a good sense of who Mr. Poilievre is and can recognize him when he appears on their screens?

So I think there’s a lot of value from this very simple exercise.

Here are the results:

Federal Party Leaders

Given the profile of federal party leaders, it’s not surprising that most Canadians can recognize a picture of the leader of Canada’s three largest parties (in terms of vote share). 98% recognize a picture of Justin Trudeau, 84% recognize NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, and 66% recognize a photo of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

Given that Poilievre has not fought a national election and has been Conservative leader for less than 2 years while Trudeau is Prime MInister and has been leader since 2013 and Singh has been NDP leader since 2018 and fought two national campaigns, Poilievre is actually doing pretty well in terms of recognition.

But still, 1 in 3 Canadians don’t recognize Pierre Poilievre when they see a picture of him.

About half of Canadians recognize Elizabeth May when they see a picture of her despite her being leader since 2006 and only 1 in 5 Canadians can name BQ Leader Blanchet when they see a picture of him including 49% in Quebec.

Liberal Leadership Candidates and Cabinet Ministers

When we test several cabinet minister and possible leadership candidates, the results are quite different. It’s a stark reminder of much Canadian politics can be in a bubble and how little familiarity Canadians have with anyone who is a federal party leader.

Of the six people we test, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland is by far the most recognizable. 39% could accurately identify who was in the picture (her name or her position) but 61% could not. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly was next at 20% followed by Treasury Board President Anita Anand at 19%, Mark Carney at 7%, Housing Minister Sean Fraser at 4% and Public Safety Minister Dominic Leblanc at 4%.

These results clearly indicated that none of these people are well known, household names. The vast majority of Canadians cannot literally pick them out of a lineup.

What about when look at those who would vote Liberal today? Does that change anything? Not really.

For current Liberal supporters, picture recognition is similar for Chrystia Freeland (39%), slightly higher for Melanie Joly (26%), lower for Anita Anand (14%), marginally higher for Carney (10%), Fraser (8%), and Leblanc (7%).

There is noteworthy that the female cabinet minister or prospective candidates are more recognizable than the male ones.

But the point here is that even among Liberal supporters – those most likely to look and be similar to those who might vote in a leadership race – can’t even identify possible contenders for the leadership if Trudeau was to step down.

So what does this all mean?

Let me go through the three areas where I think these results tell us something useful.

Cabinet Shuffle = Liberal Revival

I don’t believe a cabinet shuffle, even one that moves Minister Freeland out of Finance changes a single thing for the Liberals in terms of public opinion. Why? Because most Canadians have no idea who is in cabinet, what someone in cabinet does, and why a different cabinet might lead to different policies or outcomes.

The only person in that cabinet in which more than 40% of Canadians recognize is the Prime Minister. And based on our polling, you cannot separate how people feel about the Liberal government from how they feel about the Prime Minister.

Consider this: 78% of Canadians who have a positive view of the federal government also have a positive view of the PM.

91% of Canadians who have a negative view of the government also have a negative view of the PM.

Only 25% of Canadians don’t align their views of the PM with their views of his government. And the LPC only gets 23% of the vote among them.

Want to change how people feel about the Liberal government? You’ve got to change the leader. Shuffling people no one knows about or has an impression of will do nothing. It didn’t last summer and it won’t this summer.

Liberal Leadership Race & Liberal Fortunes in the Future

So let’s imagine Prime Minister Trudeau does announce he won’t run again and asks the Liberal Party to start a leadership race. Will a new leader change Liberal fortunes? I don’t think there’s any research we can do to honestly and effectively test that.

Why? Because as we’ve shown here, any of the would-be successors are unknown to the vast majority of Canadians. Let’s say Sean Fraser becomes Prime Minister and Liberal leader and Canadians, when they are exposed to him, like him. That might change how they feel about their choices. The same is true for any one of the six people we tested.

I don’t believe we can guarantee that those who voted Liberal in the past but today are voting Conservative or NDP are gone for good. Most have left the Liberals because they want change. They don’t like Trudeau and can’t imagine what a government led by someone else might look like and what it might do.

Is Pierre Poilievre’s Support Flimsy?

This exercise also gives us some good intel on whether Conservative support is firm or flimsy. Given that 1 in 3 Canadians can’t recognize a picture of Mr. Poilievre, there is some evidence that some people’s impression of him is not well formed. It may not be too late for the Liberals to try and redefine him or define him with those who don’t know much about him.

But there’s also evidence that Poilievre is in a solid place and his support is firm.

When we look at the difference between those who recognize him in the photo and those that don’t, I see two things of note. 44% of these folks have a positive view of him compared with 43% who have anegative view. That +1 net favourable is far better than the -35 facing the PM (who 98% of Canadians recognize and know).

Among those who don’t recognize Poilievre, 26% have a positive impression of him, 28% negative and 30% neutral. That tells me that by just mentioning he is the Conservative leader when we measure leader impressions produces a fair neutral result. Even if people don’t know who Pierre Poilievre is, being Conservative leader is a net neutral proposition.

But most important, among those who recognize a picture of Poilievre, the Conservatives lead by 25-points over the Liberals with 12% undecided. Among those who don’t recognize him, the Conservatives still lead, albeit by a smaller 4-point margin.

The point of all of this is one, when people see a picture or video of Poilievre, most already know it’s him, what is role is, and half of those folks like him.

Two, while there may still be some folks whose impressions of Poilievre can be shaped, we know the Conservatives have far more money than all the parties combined to continue to shape his image as they see fit.

Finally, as I’ve noted in the past, 98% know who Justin Trudeau is. Impressions of him are well-formed, firm, and likely unchangeable. Poilievre is likely in a far better position today than either of the previous two Conservative leaders. If the Liberals think they will be able to shift opinions of him in about a year with little money and a deeply unpopular messenger (Mr. Trudeau), I don’t think they are looking at the same data I am.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,989 Canadian adults from July 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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Canadian Politics