Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead Liberals by 18

From March 16 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,550 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversampled both Ontario and Alberta to get a better sense of what is happening in those provinces. Tomorrow, we will release new polling on the Ontario political landscape.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with some new data on how Canadians feel about the Trudeau government and the relationship with vote intention.

Conservatives lead by 17 over the Liberals.

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 33% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives and Liberals are down 1 and the NDP is up 1. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen stability in vote intentions with the Conservatives consistently in the low 40s and the Liberals stuck in the low to mid 20s.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 11 in BC and 16 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 17-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 7 over the Liberals with the Conservatives six points behind the Liberals at 20%.

If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives holding steady at 44% and the Liberals at 26%.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how millennials have shifted their preferences over the past 8 years, see my substack here.

The Conservatives continue to capture a larger share of the vote among both men and women. Liberal vote share is the same among men and women while the NDP does 9-points better among women than it does among men. For a deep dive on the differences between men and women, check out this analysis by my colleague Oksana Kishchuk released on Friday.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 52% say they are open to voting Conservative (unchanged from last month) while, 41% are open to voting Liberal (up 2). 42% say they are open to voting NDP.

We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.

We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters while Liberal supporters are more certain to vote than NDP supporters.

What else are Canadians thinking?

The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 16% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.

The federal government’s approval rating is unchanged from last wave. 26% approve while 59% disapprove of the job performance of the federal government led by Justin Trudeau, up a single point and within the margin of error. Those disapproving of the federal government’s performance has been between 56% and 59% since September 2023.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau are static. 58% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 24% have a positive view for a net score of -34.

In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also unchanged with 38% viewing him positively and 34% negatively for a net score of +4.

Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also largely unchanged. Today 33% have a negative impression compared with 33% who have a positive one for a net score of 0.

15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged from last month while those who think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative is at 52%, around the average since September 2023. We will continue to monitor this perception as it may be a leading indicator for vote intention.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

The view that the Conservatives will win the next election continues to grow. Today, 46% think the Conservatives will win the next election (down 1 since last wave) and up 7 points since October 2023. 21% think the Liberals will win, while 8% think the NDP will win. 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure or say another party will win.

Finally, in this survey we Canadians to share their view on the Trudeau government. They were shown pairs of statements/words and asked which best describes the federal government at moment.

Half or more Canadians believe the federal government led by Justin Trudeau is

  • Distracted (56%) rather than focused (24%)
  • Focused on the wrong priorities (61%) rather than on the right priorities (23%)
  • Closed (53%) rather than transparent (22%)
  • Ineffective (48%) rather than effective (24%)

And close to half feel it is:

  • Reactive (48%) rather than proactive (22%)
  • Divisive (47%) rather than unifying (25%)
  • Indifferent (44%) rather than empathetic (44%).

More than a third of Canadians feel the federal government is ambitious while 34% describe it as collaborative rather than adversarial.

And the importance of these perceptions are shown when we look at the correlation between perceptions and vote intention. The table below reports the Liberal vote share by response. It shows that the strongest predictors of support for the Liberals are perceptions it is effective, focused on the right priorities, focused, and transparent. If the government wants to improve it’s image, focusing on those perceptions would be the most effective way to do that.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Little if anything has changed over the past two weeks in terms of political opinions in Canada.

The mood of the country remains quite negative, with only one in four Canadians believing that the country is headed in the right direction. This consistent sentiment is mirrored in the federal government’s approval ratings, with 59% disapproving of the job performance of the government led by Justin Trudeau. These perceptions are crucial as they continue to shape the political narrative and the filter by which people assess decisions and events in and around Ottawa.

In evaluating the Trudeau government, Canadians expressed concerns about its focus and effectiveness, with a majority viewing the government as distracted, focused on the wrong priorities, and closed. These perceptions are closely tied to vote intention, suggesting any path back to competitiveness for the Liberals will require it to address these public perceptions.

While the Conservatives enjoy a commanding lead, our data suggests they might be approaching their maximum potential support, particularly with the notable challenge of gaining traction in Quebec. The real test now is to solidify the new coalition they have built across various demographics and regions. This involves not just holding onto their current support base but reinforcing the commitment of those who have recently aligned with them. The Conservatives are uniquely equipped with the resources needed to engage in this critical consolidation effort, almost unparalleled in the current political landscape. Ensuring that their newfound coalition feels heard and represented could be pivotal in transforming their polling strength into lasting electoral success.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,550 Canadian adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

The Canadian Public Outlook for the Rest of 2024: Housing, Personal Finances, and Geopolitics

Between February 29 and March 6, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and above to examine the multifaceted challenges Canadians anticipate in 2024, particularly focusing on the persistent housing crisis, financial insecurity, and government stability. The results reveal widespread concerns regarding housing affordability, financial stability, and trust in governance, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive policy measures to address these issues and inspire hope for a brighter and more promising future for all citizens. This sentiment not only reflects the adversities Canadians face but also signals a growing disillusionment with the prospects for improvement.

The Ongoing Housing Crisis

Canadians are overwhelmingly concerned about the housing crisis, with a substantial 68% anticipating worsening affordability and accessibility in 2024, while only 10% are optimistic about improvement. This sobering perspective underscores the urgent need to tackle issues of housing affordability and accessibility.

The plight of first-time buyers is particularly worrisome, as a staggering 74% of Canadians foresee the housing market becoming more unaffordable and less accessible for this demographic, sharply contrasting with the meager 5% holding out hope for better affordability and accessibility. Additionally, a concerning 57% of prospective first-time homebuyers express pessimism about their chances of homeownership or have abandoned the idea altogether, compared to 48% who held the same view in September 2023.

Government (at all levels) must prioritize initiatives and policies aimed at bolstering housing affordability, which may involve expanding housing supply, implementing rent controls, and providing financial assistance to prospective buyers.

Financial Insecurity

There is a troubling pattern regarding Canadians’ financial security, with half of the population (52%) expressing feelings of personal financial insecurity, while 33% acknowledge having some concerns despite considering their finances adequate. This concern is exacerbated by the revelation that 71% of Canadians report their household debt levels are increasing, leading to financial strain and instability.

Expectations for economic recovery in 2024 are marked by skepticism, as 65% of Canadians anticipate a slow and uncertain trajectory. Moreover, 69% of Canadians believe that inflation and the cost of living are going to continue to rise, affecting people’s finances.

Amidst these apprehensions about the economic outlook, many Canadians are concerned about the social divisions exacerbated by the current landscape. Specifically, a majority (53%) of respondents worry about growing economic inequality and social disparities.

Overall, these findings reflect widespread pessimism and uncertainty about 2024’s economic outlook. Policymakers should address economic stability, inflation control, and affordability concerns to restore confidence. Measures aimed at promoting economic growth, stabilizing prices, and supporting households amidst rising living costs may be necessary to address these challenges effectively.

Government Stability

Public confidence in government policies and economic stability appears fragile, with 61% of Canadians expressing concerns about the state of governance, while 70% perceive global economic conditions and geopolitical risks as volatile. To restore trust and ensure stability, policymakers must prioritize transparency, accountability, and effective governance practices. Furthermore, proactive engagement with global partners to address geopolitical risks and foster international cooperation is essential for safeguarding Canada’s economic interests in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.

The Upshot

Overall, the data reveals deep-seated challenges facing Canadians across housing affordability, financial stability, and trust in governance. The prevailing sentiment underscores a pervasive sense of uncertainty and frustration regarding the future. While encountering challenging times is not uncommon, the overarching concern is the dwindling hope for positive change – individuals feel as though they’re paddling against the current, fostering a strong sense of pessimism. This sentiment reflects not only the adversities faced by Canadians but also a mounting disillusionment with the prospects for improvement.

These perceptions have the potential to influence the behaviors and expectations of consumers, workers, and voters, molding their decisions and attitudes. The erosion of trust and optimism regarding one’s future outlook poses considerable challenges for effective policymaking and governance, particularly as many Canadians feel disillusioned with current efforts.

In light of this, Canadians urgently require relief, and the government must demonstrate its commitment to tackling these issues by offering viable solutions that provide relief to Canadians and restore hope for a brighter future. Voters are looking for leadership that can address their needs and restore their confidence in the government’s ability to govern effectively and improve their quality of life.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 28 to March 6, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Abacus Data Continues to Grow and Optimize with Two New Hires & A Promotion

Abacus Data sets its sights on continued growth and team optimization with two recent hires and a big promotion for its longest serving team member.

“We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and insightful polling and market research firm,” said Chief Executive and Chairman David Coletto. “We are deeply honoured to count some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and unions amongst our clients.”

“Abacus Data is powered by an ethos of enlightened hospitality,” said Coletto, “And we are thrilled to welcome Christine Serbu as a Senior Consultant and Rachel Luczon as a Field Specialist & Analyst to help us continue to deliver on that promise and provide current and prospective clients with best-in-class service.”

Christine is an accomplished and well-rounded market research professional with over 10 years’ experience working directly with clients in the public, private, and not-for-profit sectors. Christine is a proven project manager with sharp eyes, a critical mind, and a penchant for storytelling. Prior to joining Abacus, Christine refined her skills working with some of the largest market research firms in Canada.

“I’m thrilled to be joining Abacus and supporting their expansion across Canada. The team shares the same core values I do – work excellence, customer focus, and integrity – which made joining a no-brainer,“ said Serbu. “I’m excited to see what the future brings.”

Christine specializes in quantitative research and strives for excellence in every project – big or small. “Christine is known for her dedication to customer service, unyielding quest for improvement, and enthusiasm for creating order out of chaos,” said Abacus Data President, Ihor Korbabicz. “These qualities, along with her ample experience, make her the perfect fit for our team and will help us serve new markets and industries.”

Based in Edmonton, Christine is well-poised to service and expand the business in Western Canada.

Abacus Data is also pleased to formally welcome Rachel Luczon as a Field Specialist and Analyst working out of the Toronto office. Rachel has a background in neuroscience and psychology combined with ample experience conducting behavioural science research, examining the factors that influence decision-making.

“We have seen a marked uptick in earned media coverage for our polling releases in recent months and are delighted that our work is providing meaningful insight into how Canadians are thinking, feeling, and behaving in this uncertain time,” said Coletto. “In conjunction with our regular contributions to the national conversation as the official pollster of the Toronto Star, this coverage is helping us reach new audiences and connect with new clients. We need agile, obsessively curious, detail-oriented research professionals like Christine and Rachel to remain uncompromising in our commitment to excellence.”

“Joining the dynamic team at Abacus Data was an easy decision! With my passion for producing high-quality data, joining Abacus and supporting its mission to deliver accurate and impactful insights to clients and Canadians just made sense,” said Luczon. “I am excited to embark on this journey with a team that shares my commitment to excellence and a relentless pursuit of understanding the ever-evolving opinion landscape.”

Rachel will expand our capacity to field surveys and analysis, furthering our commitment to provide clients with actionable insights on time and on budget.

Further to new additions Christine and Rachel, Abacus Data’s longest serving team member, Jonathan Nadeau has been promoted to Senior Advisor to the CEO and Director, Special Projects. Since joining Abacus in 2011, Jonathan has been a key player in driving the success and continued evolution of the company.

“From humble beginnings as an intern to now serving as Senior Advisor to the CEO and Director, Special Projects, my journey with Abacus Data has been nothing short of transformative, said Jonathan Nadeau. “I look forward to working alongside my long-time friend, boss, and mentor, David Coletto, to drive even greater success for Abacus Data in the years ahead.”

Beginning his career at Abacus shortly after its inception, Jonathan’s journey has been marked by his singular dedication and adaptability. In his new capacity, Jonathan will work hand-in-glove with the CEO to action new ideas, develop original products and services to expand access and simplify the client journey.

“I am delighted to be able to collaborate more closely with Jonathan,” said Chief Executive and Chairman David Coletto. “Jon understands our work better than anyone and continues to bring creative solutions to complex problems.”

Celebrating its 14th anniversary this year, Abacus Data quickly established itself as a leader in public opinion and market research. Working with some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and public sector organizations, Abacus Data helps clients make better decisions through high-quality data, insights, and strategic advice.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Abacus Data Poll: Big Conservative Lead Stablizes as Evaluations of Trudeau Government Performance Drop

From February 29 to March 6, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with some updated data comparing perceptions of the Trudeau government’s performance in areas such as housing, healthcare, managing the economy, and managing government finances.

Conservatives lead by 18 over the Liberals. It’s been 658 straight days that the Conservatives have led the Liberals in Abacus Data polling.

If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 34% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives are up 1, the Liberals are unchanged, and the NDP is down 1. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen stability in vote intentions with the Conservatives consistently in the low 40s and the Liberals stuck in the low to mid 20s.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 22 in BC, and 13 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 15-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 8 over the Liberals with the Conservatives just two points back and statistically tied with the Liberals for second.

If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives holding at 43%, the Liberals up 1 to 27%.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how millennials have shifted their preferences over the past 8 years, see my substack here. And tune into (and subscribe!) Eric Grenier’s podcast later this week as we deep dive Canadian polling trends and breakouts by demographic, regional, and political groups.

The Conservatives continue to capture a larger share of the vote among both men and women. Liberal vote share is the same among men and women while the NDP does 9-points better among women than it does among men. For a deep dive on the differences between men and women, check out this analysis by my colleague Oksana Kishchuk released on Friday.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 50% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 2 since earlier this month) while, 39% are open to voting NDP (down 1), and 39% are open to voting Liberal (unchanged) and the lowest we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.

We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.

We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. Enthusiasm for voting NDP is down 5 from last month while Liberal enthusiasim is up slightly by 3 points.

What else are Canadians thinking?

The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 15% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.

The federal government’s approval rating is improved slightly from last month at 26%, up 2. 58% disapprove of the job performance of the federal govenrment led by Justin Trudeau, down a single point and within the margin of error.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau have improved marginally. 58% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 25% have a positive view for a net score of -33.

In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also largely unchanged with 38% viewing him positively and 34% negatively for a net score of +4. Any attempts by the Liberals to shift perceptions about Poilievre have yet to bare any fruit.

Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also largely unchanged. Today 35% have a negative impression compared with 33% who have a positive one for a net score of -2.

15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged from last month while those who think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative is back up to 54%, the high point in our tracking. We will continue to monitor this perception as it may be a leading indicator for vote intention.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

The view that the Conservatives will win the next election continues to grow. Today, 47% think the Conservatives will win the next election (up 2 since last wave) and up 8 points since October 2023. 19% think the Liberals will win, while 8% think the NDP will win. 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure or say another party will win.

Finally, in this survey we reasked questions we asked in March 2023 evaluating how Canadians feel about the Trudeau government’s performance in some specific policy areas.

The results reveal several things.

First, negative impressions are up right across the board, increasing from 6 to 9 points. This reflects the movement we’ve seen in government approval since last spring.

Areas where the Trudeau government get relatively better evaluations are in its handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (51% positive or acceptable), dealing with the provinces (44% positive or acceptable) and running an ethical government (40% positive or acceptable).

But it gets low scores for its handling of housing (23%), dealing with the rising cost of living (26%), and managing government finances (33%). When it comes to managing the economy, 35% think the federal government has done a good or acceptable job while 61% describe it as negative with an 8-point rise in negative impressions.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Public opinion about Canadians politics is firmly in a new normal with an unpopular Prime Minister, a poor performing federal government, and a relatively popular leader of the opposition. Since last spring, perceptions of the government’s performance in several policy areas have all become markedly negative – especially in areas where the government has tried to put a great focus including housing, inflation, and the economy.

It really does feel like the Trudeau government is pushing against a thick, tall wall where nothing it does is seen positively by its detractors. Whether it is closed minds or distraction, Canadians are not being persuaded that Mr. Trudeau or his government are effectively managing the anxieties in their life. This might change if micro- and macro-economic conditions improve, but as my colleague Eddie Sheppard will report later this week, expectations for the rest of 2024 are not great. Low expectations are easier to meet and exceed, but it means that the public remains deeply skeptical, anxious, and in the Prime Minister’s own words, “grumpy”.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 28 to March 6,, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Top Trends in Canadian Politics Today: Men vs. Women

Today, on International Women’s Day, we are taking a look at some of the top trends in Canadian politics, with a gendered lens. The data below is taken from an online survey of n= 2,125

Direction of the Country

First up is the direction of the country. Men and women are equally pessimistic about the direction of the country, and the world more generally. Given how steep the decline of impressions has been overall, it is no surprise that men and women feel the same about how the last couple of years have gone.

Top Issues

Economic outlook appears to be the driving force for pessimism for both men and women though the specific stresses are a bit different. The rising cost of living is clearly at the top of the list for both men and women- 20+ points higher than any other issue for both men and women. Still, women are more focused on the microeconomic impacts while men are more concerned about the macro-economic consequences.

39% of men place the economy in their list of top 3 concerns, compared to 31% of women. While 51% of women rank housing affordability and accessibility in their top 3 issues compared to 42% of men. Women are also far more likely to associate the cost-of-living crisis with their own financial situation. 29% of women say they are getting ahead and saving right now- 8-points lower than men. 

Leader Impressions

Men and women

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,125 Canadian adults from February 15 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.12%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Doug Ford and Ontario PCs ahead by 14 as NDP falls behind Liberals.

In a recent survey conducted by Abacus Data, exclusively provided to the Toronto Star, from February 15 to 21, 2024, a sample of 1,000 eligible Ontario voters was interviewed to capture the current political climate within the province.

The Progressive Conservatives, led by Doug Ford, have a14-point lead over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals. Since the beginning of February, the PCs have seen a marginal increase of 1 point, with the Ontario Liberals holding steady. Conversely, the Ontario NDP has witnessed a decline of 4 points, marking the lowest level of support since the last provincial election. The Ontario Greens are up 2 points to 8% across the province.

Regional and Demographic Dynamics:

  • The Progressive Conservatives are leading in every region within Ontario, with a 13-point lead among men and a narrower 4-point lead among women.
  • Age demographics show the PCs ahead across all brackets, with the Liberals gaining popularity among those aged 45 and over, while the NDP secures more support from the under-45 cohort.
  • Remarkably, the PCs are retaining 87% of their past supporters and have attracted 20% of those who backed the federal Liberals in 2021, along with 86% of previous federal Conservative voters.

Government Performance and Leader Impressions:

  • Approval for the Ford government has dipped slightly by 3 points but remains consistent with trends observed since last summer.
  • Doug Ford’s personal approval ratings are mixed, with 30% viewing him positively against a 47% negative perception, netting a score of -17.
  • Bonnie Crombie holds a net score of -2, with 27% positive and 29% negative impressions.
  • NDP Leader Marit Stiles mirrors Crombie’s score, with 23% positive and 25% negative views.
  • Mike Schreiner of the Green Party stands with 19% positive and 21% negative impressions, also resulting in a net score of -2.
Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

Public Perception of Cost of Living Influences:

When Ontarians were asked which level of government has most contributed to increasing their cost of living, a significant 64% pointed to the federal government, while 36% attributed it to the Ford government.

Key Takeaways:

1. Doug Ford’s personal brand, built on a taxpayer-first philosophy and dedication to affordability, provides a buffer against the downward trends affecting other incumbents.

2. A fragmented opposition has given the PCs and Ford a substantial advantage in the province.

3. The Ontario NDP is experiencing internal and external pressures, with the Liberals, under Bonnie Crombie, starting to solidify their position as the primary alternative to the Ford administration.

4. The NDP’s internal challenges and the rise of a resilient Green Party pose significant risks to their position, with the potential for the Liberals to capitalize on these weaknesses.

5. Despite Ford’s strong showing in voter intentions, his position is not unassailable, reflected in the government’s overall approval ratings, suggesting potential vulnerabilities.

Analysis:

Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives have settled into a comfortable lead, buoyed by a personal brand that resonates with Ontarians’ concerns over living costs. However, beneath the surface of voter intention, the political landscape is fluid, with the NDP’s decline and internal strife offering an opening for the Liberals. Meanwhile, the Green Party’s incremental gains hint at a broader desire for alternatives among the electorate. Ford’s leadership, while currently strong, stands on a precipice, where the balance of public approval and the shifting sands of opposition dynamics could influence the future political narrative in Ontario.

Methodology:

The survey targeted 1,000 eligible voters across Ontario, ensuring a representative sample that reflects the province’s demographic composition. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Data were weighted according to census statistics on age, gender, and region to ensure sample representativity.

The survey was funded and conducted by Abacus Data.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

3 in 4 Canadians think a national forest fire fighting force is a good idea.

In light of recent warnings by Federal Emergency Preparedness Minister Harjit Sajjan that this year’s wildfire season could surpass the severity of the last, a new poll conducted by Abacus Data sheds light on Canadians’ perspectives on a measure to combat the growing wildfire threat. Minister Sajjan’s cautionary statement last week, describing the upcoming wildfire season’s forecast as “alarming but not surprising,” underscores the urgency of addressing this escalating challenge.

The survey reveals overwhelming support among Canadians for a proposal by BC MP Richard Cannings to establish a national, non-military forest fighting force. This specialized unit would be deployed across Canada to assist in combating forest fires and could be offered as a resource to other countries during periods without domestic fires. According to the poll, 3 in 4 Canadians endorse this initiative, with only 11% opposing it and 14% undecided.

This support is remarkably consistent across the country, with 74% in BC, 76% in Alberta, 75% in Ontario, 71% in Quebec, and 78% in Atlantic Canada backing the idea. Political affiliation does not significantly alter this view, with Liberal supporters showing the highest enthusiasm at 85% approval, followed closely by Conservatives at 75% and NDP supporters at 76%. Moreover, the data indicates that this consensus extends beyond political lines and is uniform regardless of one’s belief in the changing patterns of wildfire severity and frequency.

The broad-based support for Cannings’ proposal can be largely attributed to the growing concern among Canadians regarding the future of wildfires in the country. A significant 65% of respondents anticipate an increase in the severity of forest fires over the next five years, with 66% expecting them to become more frequent.

This polling data suggests that Canadians across all demographics and political spectrums recognize the need for more robust national strategies to address the wildfire crisis. The widespread approval of a dedicated forest fighting force reflects a collective understanding that the challenges posed by wildfires, exacerbated by climate change, demand innovative and unified responses.

The Upshot

Last summer’s wildfires, which affected regions across Canada, have evidently left a lasting impression on the public consciousness, emphasizing that wildfires are not isolated incidents but a national problem requiring a national solution. The consensus around the establishment of a national forest fighting force underscores the urgency with which Canadians from all walks of life seek proactive measures to protect their communities, landscapes, and ecosystems from the ravages of wildfires.

The poll results represent a clear mandate from Canadians for their leaders to take decisive action in the face of an increasingly volatile and unpredictable wildfire season. As the threat of wildfires grows more acute, the call for a national, non-military forest fighting force is a testament to the country’s collective will to seek out and support solutions that safeguard the environment and public safety on a national scale. This unified stance sends a powerful message about the importance of foresight, preparedness, and cooperation in addressing one of the most pressing environmental challenges of our time.

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 17.

From February 15 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,125 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with some new data on who Canadians prefer as Prime Minister and how people feel about the focus the Liberal government is giving to some key issues.

Note, this survey was done following the Auditor General’s report on the ArriveCan app but before news leaked about the deal between the NDP and Liberals on national pharmacare.

Conservatives lead by 17 over the Liberals. It’s been 644 straight days that the Conservatives have led the Liberals in Abacus Data polling.

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 35% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives are down 2, the Liberals are unchanged, and the NDP is up 1. For all intents and purposes, little has changed in the ballot. 15% of Canadians say they are undecided including 13% of those who say they voted Liberal in 2021 (it’s 5% among past Conservative voters).

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 14 in BC, and 16 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 20-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 7 over the Liberals with the Conservatives six points further behind.

If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives and Liberals both down 1 with the Conservatives ahead by 17 in these three provinces/regions.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how millennials have shifted their preferences over the past 8 years, see my substack here.

Men are 10-points more likely to vote Conservative than women and 4-points and 7-points less likely to vote Liberal and NDP respectively. The Conservatives lead by 20 among men under 30, while the NDP is ahead by 5 over the Conservatives among women under 30. The Conservatives lead by 25 among men 60+ while the Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied among women 60+.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 52% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 2 since earlier this month) while, 40% are open to voting NDP (down 1), and 39% are open to voting Liberal (down 1) and the lowest we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.

We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.

We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. The enthusisiam gap is consistent with what we found earlier this month.

What else are Canadians thinking?

The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 15% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.

The federal government’s approval rating is unchanged from earlier in the month at 24%, the lowest we have measured since the Liberals were elected in 2015. 59% disapprove of the job performance of the federal govenrment led by Justin Trudeau, also unchanged.

It’s also clear that impressions of the federal government’s performance are strongly linked to impressions of Justin Trudeau. One moves with the other. 92% of those with a negative impression of Justin Trudeau also disapprove of the federal government’s job performance.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau have become marginally more negative. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 23% have a positive view for a net score of -36.

In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also unchanged with 37% viewing him positively and 36% negatively for a net score of +1. Any attempts by the Liberals to shift perceptions about Poilievre have yet to bare any fruit.

Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are largely unchanged. Today 35% have a negative impression compared with 32% who have a positive one for a net score of -3.

15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, up 1 point from earlier in the month while those who think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative is down 3 points in a month to 51%. We will continue to monitor this perception as it may be a leading indicator for vote intention.

What Canadians feel are the top issues facing the country are fairly stable although housing affordability is up 2 points while healthcare is down 2. The percentage rating the economy as a top issue is up 3 over the past two weeks.

Find out more about the The Three Threads and how the Abacus Data team looks
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.

Compared with last Fall, more Canadians think the Conservatives will win the next federal election. Almost half of Canadians believe the Conservatives will win the next election, up 6 points since October 2023. 19% think the Liberals will, down 2 while 10% think the NDP will win. 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure or say another party will win.

We also reasked who Canadian prefer to be Prime Minister – Trudeau or Poilievre. Poilievre is ahead by 10, largely unchanged from last month. Among current NDP supporters 66% side with Trudeau while 34% side with Poilievre. Among BQ supporters, 64% side with Trudeau while 36% side with Poilievre.

In this survey, we asked people who they prefer between Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh. The results are the only marginally better for Mr. Singh. 54% prefer Poilievre while 46% prefer Singh. Among currentl Liberal supporters, 73% would choose Mr. Singh while 27% would choose Mr. Poilievre. Among BQ supporters, 60% side with Singh while 40% side with Poilievre.

Finally, in this survey we reasked questions we asked in January 2023 exploring whether Canadians feel the Liberal government is focused too much, too little, or about the right amount on several issues.

The results reveal several things.

When it comes to the cost of living (the top issue for about 3 in 4 Canadians), housing, and crime and public safety at least six in ten believe the government is not focused enough as they should be. Compared with a year ago, those who think the government isn’t focused enough on the cost of living is up 5-points.

In contrast, at least a quarter of Canadians think the government is focused too much on climate change, indigenous reconciliation, and Russia’s invasion of Ukreaine.

Climate change is a very interesting issue. It is the most polarizing of any issue with about equal numbers of people feeling the government is too focused on the issue than those who think it is not focused enough.

We also reasked whether people think the Conservative Party, if it formed government with Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister, would focus more, about the same, or less than the Liberal government on the same issues.

Almost half of Canadians think a Conservative government will focus more than the Liberal government on the cost of living (up 7 since last year), growing the economy (up 2), reducing the deficit (up 1) and the cost of housing (up 5).

At the same time, a third or more believe a Conservative government would be less focused on climate change, Russia’s invasion on Ukraine (down 4 since last year), and indigenous reconciliation.

These results are noteworthy in a few ways:

  1. Heightened Concerns on Cost of Living and Housing: The fact that over 60% of Canadians believe the government is not sufficiently focused on critical issues like the cost of living, housing, and crime/public safety speaks volumes about public anxiety over these areas. The cost of living, identified as the top issue for three-quarters of Canadians, has seen a notable increase in concern, up 5 points from the previous year. This suggests a growing dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of economic pressures facing ordinary Canadians, especially in the context of housing affordability and safety.
  2. Perceived Overemphasis on Climate Change, Indigenous Reconciliation, and Ukraine: The polarization of public opinion on the government’s focus on climate change, indigenous reconciliation, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reveals a divide in what Canadians believe should be the government’s priorities. At least a quarter of Canadians feel that too much attention is given to these issues. This polarization, especially around climate change, highlights the challenge in balancing urgent environmental concerns with immediate economic pressures perceived by the public.
  3. Polarization on Climate Change: The fact that climate change emerges as the most polarizing issue, with nearly equal numbers of Canadians feeling the government is either too focused or not focused enough, underscores the complex public sentiment surrounding environmental policies. This polarization reflects broader global debates on climate action versus economic growth and how governments should navigate these often competing priorities. This presents opportunities and threats for both the Liberals and the Conservatives.
  4. Expectations for a Conservative Government’s Focus: The anticipation that a Conservative government would place greater emphasis on the cost of living, economic growth, deficit reduction, and housing affordability indicates a significant portion of the public perceives the Conservatives as potentially more attuned to their economic concerns. The increase in the percentage of Canadians who believe a Conservative government would focus more on these issues since last year suggests a shifting political landscape, possibly driven by ongoing economic challenges.
  5. Concerns over Conservative Focus on Climate Change and Foreign Policy: The expectation that a Conservative government would be less focused on climate change, indigenous reconciliation, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than the Liberal government reflects concerns about the potential deprioritization of these issues. The fact that Canadians believe the Conservatives would be less likely to focus on that issue suggests that some are paying attention to what’s happening in Ottawa and two, if the Conservatives divert their attention away from the core three – inflation, housing, and healthcare – they risk fracturing their newly built coalition.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Auditor General’s report on the ArriveCan app does not seem to have fundamentally changed public opinion about the Liberal government or the Prime Minister – suggesting the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau may have hit the bottom of their support.

The political climate remains deeply challenging for the Liberals, highlighted by a significant lead for the Conservatives. This enduring lead in vote intention has now stretched to over 644 days in our tracking. The stability of this trend suggests a deep-rooted dissatisfaction and disappointment with the current government and one that does not appear to be improving at all.

This poll underscores a clear message from Canadians: there’s a significant disconnect between the government’s current priorities and the urgent issues of cost of living, housing, and public safety that matter most to the electorate. Any efforts the government has made to shift perceptions on his front has yet to make any impact.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,125 Canadian adults from February 15 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.