Abacus Data Ontario Poll: PCs Steady at 52% as Crombie Resigns Amid Liberal Convention Fallout

As Ontario politics enters a period of leadership turbulence for the opposition, Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives maintain their dominant grip on the electorate. The latest Abacus Data survey, conducted over the weekend of the Ontario Liberal Party’s leadership review convention, shows the PCs holding steady at 52% of the vote—only one point below their all-time high in our tracking – while the Liberals see their support drop and Bonnie Crombie exits the political stage.

This wave captures a rare moment of volatility: interviews were split almost evenly between the days before and after Crombie’s resignation, allowing a unique glimpse into voter sentiment amid political upheaval. Despite the drama, the results underscore a recurring theme: Ford and the PCs are not just ahead, they are way ahead.

Vote Intention: PCs Maintain 52%, Liberal Slide Accelerates
If a provincial election were held today, 52% of committed voters would cast their ballot for the Progressive Conservatives, down just one point since August. The Ontario Liberals have fallen to 24%, a three-point drop in the same period. The NDP holds steady at 12%, while the Greens are at 6%.

This 28-point lead over the Liberals is the largest margin since our tracking began. After months of slow erosion, the Liberal brand has now lost six points since May and shows signs of further deterioration, particularly in regions where the party had been moderately competitive.

For the PCs, this month’s data confirms a stable coalition that has weathered affordability pressures and economic uncertainty. Their support base appears deeply embedded across regions and demographic segments, suggesting the party is benefiting from both Ford’s personal brand and the vacuum of credible opposition.

PCs Dominate Regionally and Across Key Demographics
The Progressive Conservatives continue to lead across all major regions of the province. In Toronto, they are ahead of the Liberals by 24 points (52% to 28%). In the GTHA, the PCs lead by 22 points, while in Southwestern Ontario, they now command a 42-point margin over the Liberals (60% to 18%).

The demographic map is equally telling. The PCs lead among both men and women, and among every age, including those aged 18 to 29.

What stands out is the breadth of the PC coalition. Unlike the Liberals or NDP, whose bases are more narrowly distributed, Ford’s party continues to win support from all corners of the province and all walks of life.

Approval: Ford Government Still in Positive Territory
Public satisfaction with the Ford government remains largely unchanged. Forty-seven percent of Ontarians approve of the job Ford and his team are doing, while 31% disapprove. This net +16 is marginally lower than the +18 recorded in August, but still among the most favourable ratings Ford has received since our tracking began in 2023.

The Ford government’s approval numbers have been in positive territory since the beginning of the year, a period initiated by Trump’s inauguration.

Leadership Impressions: Ford Up, Crombie Down
Doug Ford remains the most positively viewed political leader in Ontario, with 46% of Ontarians holding a favourable impression of him, 33% unfavourable, and just 1% unsure—a net impression of +13.

Bonnie Crombie, by contrast, ends her tenure as Liberal leader with a net impression of -5, down from -3 last month. Only 29% view her positively, while 34% view her negatively, and 11% say they don’t know enough to offer a view. Her resignation comes amid declining personal numbers and a party brand that has stalled despite earlier optimism.

Marit Stiles’s impression is stable, now sitting at +1 overall. Mike Schreiner’s net score remains slightly negative at -1, consistent with previous months.

Preferred Premier: Ford Dominates Post-Crombie Landscape
Doug Ford is the preferred choice for Premier among 46% of Ontarians, unchanged from August. Crombie, even as she stepped down, attracted the support of just 18%, while Stiles trails at 12% and Schreiner at 6%. Another 18% remain undecided.

Ford leads in every major region and across almost every demographic segment. He is preferred by a majority of men (51%) and a plurality of women (42%). Among those aged 45 to 59, he reaches 53%, and among those 60 and older, he holds steady at 50%. Even among younger voters aged 18 to 29, a group typically more hostile to Ford, he registers 33%, ahead of both Crombie (25%) and Stiles (12%).

This widespread appeal underscores the strength of his leadership brand: well-known, broadly accepted, and largely unchallenged.

The Upshot
This survey was conducted during a moment of significant political drama. The Ontario Liberal Party convention, marked by internal tension and Bonnie Crombie’s resignation, reflects a party in transition. The data suggest that many voters are tuning out, as Liberal support has eroded and Crombie’s personal brand has weakened.

Doug Ford, by contrast, remains a picture of stability, unmoved by the noise, and bolstered by broad, cross-demographic appeal. With a 28-point lead over the Liberals, majority approval, and unmatched name recognition, Ford and the PCs head into the fall on solid footing.

The NDP, still facing internal uncertainty ahead of their own convention, have yet to present a compelling alternative overshadowed by the weak national party brand. Their vote share remains flat, and Stiles continues to face significant recognition barriers.

Looking ahead, affordability, economic uncertainty, and leadership remain the dominant voter concerns. Right now, Ford is winning on all three.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,021 eligible voters in Ontario from September 12 to 17, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Is the Canadian public primed on what to expect from Budget 2025?

In mid-September, we surveyed over 2,200 Canadians to understand how people are thinking about the federal government’s upcoming fiscal plan. What do they expect to see? Who do they think will benefit? And how do they assess the broader state of federal finances?

We asked these questions not because public opinion sets the budget but because managing expectations is as much a part of policy making and politics as managing reaction to an announcement or the policy itself.  When expectations and reality diverge sharply, the risk of negative public reaction grows. If the government fails to socialize its choices in advance, even broadly reasonable decisions can land poorly.

This research gives us a clear picture of where public opinion stands now and what that means heading into a high-stakes fall for the Carney government.

A Country Expecting Action But Unsure of the Trade-offs

When asked what kind of budget they think is coming, Canadians show a strong belief that something substantial is on the way but they differ in how they imagine the government will approach the country’s economic and fiscal challenges.

A plurality, 35%, believe the government will spend on new projects but find savings in other areas to help pay for them – the main message the government has been trying to communicate. This group expects targeted investments, but within a frame of relative restraint. Another 26% think the government will simply spend more across the board without any cuts, regardless of whether it increases the deficit. Fewer than one in five expect little to change, and only 14% anticipate a budget dominated by cuts.

Interestingly, we don’t see much difference regionally or across age groups. Older Canadians (60+), who we know are paying more attention to politics through traditional channels, are the most likely to think the budget will spend on new projects but cut in other areas.

Politically, Liberal and NDP voters are more likely to expect a mix of investment and austerity, whereas Conservative supporters are more likely to think the government will spend more without many cuts.

What’s Expected to Be in the Budget

When Canadians imagine the content of the upcoming budget, three themes dominate: investments in defence, infrastructure, housing and support for those impacted by tariffs.

Sixty-five percent believe the budget is likely to include more funding for the military and defence likely a reflection of the ongoing global security environment and the clear signals the government has sent about Canada’s NATO commitments. Sixty-one percent expect to see large-scale investments in infrastructure, energy, or transportation.

And notably, 58% anticipate specific measures to speed up housing construction. With affordability challenges dominating political conversation and personal finances alike, this isn’t surprising. These three items – defence, major projects, and housing – have been front and centre in communications and so far, that work has been largely successful in socializing the public to what’s coming.

There are lower expectation in other areas. Just over half think there will be cuts to day-to-day federal operations. At the same time, only a third believe personal income taxes will go down (although they already have earlier this year) and most do not expect sweeping tax relief for small businesses or individuals.

The pattern here is consistent with a public that recognizes fiscal pressure, but still wants the government to show it can respond to urgent needs. There’s no single dominant policy item people are counting on but the expectation is that the budget will not be status quo.

Who Canadians Think Will Benefit

One of the clearest signals from this research is the widespread skepticism about who the federal budget is actually going to serve.

When we asked Canadians to identify up to three groups they believe will benefit most, the most common answers were the military (38%), wealthier Canadians (34%), large corporations (32%), and industries like energy, mining, or manufacturing. A full third of the public expects the biggest winners of this budget to be those who already wield the most power and influence.

Far fewer Canadians expect the budget to prioritize families with kids (18%), renters or first-time homebuyers (14%), or small businesses (14%). Just one in ten believe seniors will benefit meaningfully. In short, the public expects a budget that will target certain sectors and will benefit those who are already well off.

There are stark political differences here. NDP and Bloc supporters are more likely to believe the wealthy and corporations will benefit, while Liberals are somewhat more likely to expect help cities and towns, the energy, mining, and manufacturing sectors, and small businesses. Conservative voters expect defence and major corporations to be benefit the most.

Financing the Plan: More Borrowing, Some Cuts, Little Clarity

We also asked people where they think the government will find money for its budget plans. The most common answer, chosen by 41%, is that the government will simply borrow more and run a bigger deficit. Another 38% expect the government to cut federal operations, likely by trimming the public service. A third expect higher taxes or fees that affect households directly.

Fewer believe the government will raise corporate taxes or taxes on the wealthy. There’s even less expectation that the government will reduce transfers to provinces or municipalities. Only about 1 in 4 expect that to happen.

The upshot is again fairly good priming of what is likely coming in the budget. Among Liberal Party supporters, about half believe the budget will cut back federal government operations by reducing the workforce in the federal public service. But there are many who don’t know much about how the government will finance new investments. People anticipate trade-offs, but they don’t necessarily believe those trade-offs will be explained clearly or made fairly. There is also a real risk that if the government announces cuts without accompanying investments in high-salience areas like housing or affordability, public reaction could skew sharply negative.

Fiscal Credibility: Low Expectations for Discipline

When we asked what Canadians expect the government to say about fiscal responsibility in the budget, the top answer — selected by 30% — was that the government won’t make any clear commitment at all.

Only about one in five expect the government to promise to keep Canada’s debt manageable relative to GDP. Another 22% think there will be a pledge to balance the budget by a certain year, but few expect the promise to be immediate or binding. Just 12% believe there will be any constraint on future spending growth.

This suggests that while many Canadians are concerned about fiscal sustainability, they do not expect it to be a major feature of the budget’s message. That opens the government up to criticism from those looking for reassurance on long-term fiscal discipline, particularly among older and more conservative respondents. But it also means that the public already expects a large deficit number.

A Budget Clouded by Pessimism about the Country’s Fiscal Position

Most believe the federal government is spending more than it brings in and a clear plurality think the gap is growing. Only 8% believe the government’s spending is closely aligned with revenues.

In a similar way, a plurality expect Budget 2025 to deliver a larger deficit or shortfall while 35% expect the same as last year. Liberals and Conservatives differ on expectations.

In terms of mood, 29% expect the budget to be bad news. Another 34% say it will be a mix of good and bad. Just 15% are expecting what could be called a “good news” budget.

That kind of backdrop — low confidence in finances, low expectations for equity, and little belief in fiscal discipline — makes the job of messaging and managing the budget rollout all the more critical. It does appear though that so far, the Carney government has done a fairly good job priming public expectations on the budget.

The Upshot

With just over a month to go before Budget 2025 is tabled, the federal government finds itself in a delicate but not unfavourable position: Canadians broadly expect a budget with meaningful investments and some restraint, but few feel confident about who will benefit or how it will all be paid for. The good news for the Carney government is that much of its high-level messaging has landed with some, likely those paying most attention. The less encouraging news is that most people remain skeptical about fairness, clarity, and the fiscal credibility of what’s coming and many don’t have any sense of what to expect from the budget.

The data show that the public expects action on the key files that Ottawa has repeatedly emphasized — housing, infrastructure, and defence. These issues have been sufficiently socialized to prime expectations, and most voters are aligned with the idea of targeted investment alongside operational restraint. That is the frame the government has sought to reinforce, and it is largely succeeding.

But success in shaping what people think will be in the budget doesn’t necessarily translate to support for how it will be delivered or who it will help. A full third of Canadians expect the biggest winners to be those with the most power already — the military, large corporations, and wealthy individuals. Just one in ten expect seniors to benefit, and expectations are similarly low for renters, families, or small businesses. That perception of imbalance — of the budget being skewed toward insiders or instittions — presents a clear political vulnerability. The government needs to connect the dots between its plan and vision and the day-to-day lives of people.

Crucially, there is no dominant belief in any single source of financing. Most expect more borrowing and larger deficits, but fewer believe there will be major tax increases or meaningful corporate contributions. And just 12% expect any real constraint on future spending. That leaves the government exposed on the question of fiscal credibility, particularly with older voters and those outside the progressive coalition.

So, what still needs to happen?

First, the government needs to personalize the upside by showing not just what the budget will contain, but who it’s meant to help. That story is currently vague and uneven. Second, it must begin to lay narrative track for how the budget will be financed, especially if restraint or sacrifice will be required. Third, it must reclaim credibility on fiscal discipline, not with abstract metrics, but through choices that feel targeted, purposeful, and fair.

The groundwork has been laid. But the next four weeks are about converting that expectation-setting into alignment and avoiding the perception that the budget, however well-constructed, simply missed the moment.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,230 Canadians from September 12 to 17, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

Canadians Want Action on Gender Parity in Politics

New research shows Canadians overwhelmingly support equal representation in politics—but give governments and political parties failing grades on progress so far.

Canadians have long seen gender equality as a defining value of our democracy. But recent polling conducted by Abacus Data for Informed Perspectives reveals a sharp disconnect between Canadians’ commitment to parity and the lack of progress in political representation.

Canadians Expect More

Nearly all Canadians want to see more being done to achieve gender parity in politics. Many are surprised, even disappointed, to learn that Canada ranks just 71st globally in women’s representation—a decline from 59th a few years ago. Four in ten Canadians say they are surprised by Canada’s low global standing, and nearly as many say they are disappointed that more progress hasn’t been made.

The data also show a broader frustration: 30% of Canadians describe Canadian society as inequitable—an opinion ten points higher among women than men.

A Core Canadian Value

Gender parity is not a fringe concern. It is a core belief for Canadians across political affiliations and demographics. Eighty-six percent say equal representation of men and women in politics is important at all levels of government, a finding consistent since 2022. Importantly, support cuts across lines of gender and party preference.

Canadians also believe that parity brings concrete benefits:

  • 84% say it leads to policies that better reflect the realities and needs of the broader population.
  • 81% say it increases respect in political dialogue.
  • 78% say it boosts government productivity.
  • 78% say it fosters more cross-partisan collaboration.

For most Canadians, parity is about building a democracy that works better for everyone.

Canadians want Institutional Involvement

Yet expectations remain clear: around seven in ten Canadians, and nearly eight in ten when it comes to the federal government, want each of these institutions and groups to play a big role in ensuring women have an equal voice in politics.

Pathways Forward

Canadians strongly support learning from international examples and adopting proven strategies here at home. Enforcing greater civility and respect in debates (73%) and changing conditions of work for elected officials (69%) top the list of reforms Canadians see as both effective and necessary.

Support is also growing for more ambitious measures. A majority now favour requiring parties to nominate a minimum number of women candidates (58%, up four points since last measured) and to run women in winnable ridings (56%, up four points). There is also majority support for legislatures, including the House of Commons, to ensure a minimum number of women are elected representatives.

Across the board, more than seven in ten Canadians believe these measures would help Canada achieve parity—including men and women, and supporters of all major federal parties.

Upshot
Canadians are clear: gender parity is fundamental to the health of our democracy. They believe it strengthens our economy, improves decision-making, and reflects the values of equality we aspire to as a country. But they are equally clear that governments and political parties are not doing enough.

With Canada sliding in international rankings, the choice is stark: act now with proven strategies to ensure women are equal partners in shaping our future, or risk further erosion of Canada’s democratic credibility.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from July 31 to August 5, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

This poll was paid for by Informed Perspectives.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian PoliticsInsightsPublic Policy

Abacus Nova Scotia Poll: Houston’s PCs Maintain Commanding Lead as Fall Session Opens

From September 16 to 18, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 600 adults in Nova Scotia. The results provide a clear picture of the political environment as as provincial politicians return to Province House for the fall session.

PCs Continue to Dominate the Political Landscape

Premier Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives remain well ahead of the opposition parties, with support levels holding close to their 2024 election performance. The PCs currently sit at 52 percent province-wide, down three points since May but just one point below their “supermajority” result in 2024.

The opposition remains divided. Claudia Chender’s NDP records 23 percent, only a point above their May level and the same as their 2024 election result. Derek Mombourquette’s Liberals are at 16 percent, also up a single point since May but far below their 2024 result under former leader Zach Churchill. The Green Party is at 5 percent. With these numbers, the PCs continue to benefit from a fractured opposition, maintaining a 29-point lead over their closest rival.

Regional and Demographic Patterns

The PCs continue to lead across most of the province. In Mainland Nova Scotia, they hold 67 percent support, leaving the NDP and Liberals tied at 11 percent. In Cape Breton, they remain ahead with 55 percent, followed by the Liberals at 22 percent and the NDP at 17 percent.

Halifax looks different. Over the summer, the gap between the PCs and the NDP has significantly narrowed. The governing party is now at 39 percent in the municipality, a ten-point drop since May, while the NDP is at 35 percent, up four points. The Liberals also improved in Halifax, climbing to 19 percent. The PCs now lead the NDP by only four points in the province’s most populous region.

The PCs also continue to lead among both men and women, with stronger support among women at 58 percent compared with 46 percent among men. They lead in every age group, with their strongest backing among older Nova Scotians. Sixty-five percent of those aged 45 and over say they would vote PC, while 36 percent of those under 45 would do the same. Among younger voters, the NDP has gained ground, climbing to 30 percent.

The tightening in Halifax and among younger voters suggests potential areas of vulnerability for the PCs, even as they remain far ahead overall and dominate outside of the HRM.

Public Mood: Positive for Province, Negative for Country and World

Nova Scotians remain more optimistic about their own province than about Canada or the wider world. Forty-two percent believe things in the province are headed in the right direction compared with 37 percent who say the wrong track. By contrast, only 38 percent believe Canada is headed in the right direction, while a majority feel the country is off track. Views of the world are even more pessimistic, with just 11 percent saying things are headed in the right direction.

This contrast highlights how Nova Scotians separate their provincial context from the broader national and global environment, which continues to be viewed through a more negative lens.

Government Approval Remains Strong Overall, But Issue-Specific Weaknesses Persist

Overall, 52 percent approve of the Houston government’s performance, compared with 20 percent who disapprove. This level of approval is consistent with the government’s continued electoral strength.

Approval varies across issue areas. Half approve of the government’s handling of the U.S. trade dispute and Donald Trump (although down 9 since March), 46 percent approve of its performance on healthcare (unchanged), and 43 percent approve of its handling of the provincial economy (down 8 since May). Evaluations are lowest on affordability, spending taxpayer money and housing, with only about a third of Nova Scotians currently approving of the government’s record in those areas.

The data suggest that while Nova Scotians broadly support the government, performance assessments on housing, affordability, and fiscal management remain weaker points.

Leader Impressions

Premier Tim Houston remains well regarded, with a net impression score of plus 30, a strong result for any incumbent. Claudia Chender also records a positive net score of plus 16. Mombourquette and Green leader Anthony Edmonds are less well known and therefore have higher neutral and unsure results.

 THE UPSHOT

Premier Tim Houston and the Nova Scotia Progressive Conservatives remain firmly in control of the province’s political landscape. Despite some slippage since May, support for the PCs sits almost exactly where it did on election night in 2024, underscoring the resilience of their coalition and the weakness of a divided opposition.

The mood of the province adds to the government’s advantage. More Nova Scotians believe things are headed in the right direction than the wrong track, a sharp contrast with far gloomier assessments of Canada and the world. Combined with a solid 52% approval rating for the government and Houston’s strong personal numbers, the PCs enter the Fall Session in a commanding position.

But the picture is not without warning signs. Approval of the government’s performance is far weaker on core bread-and-butter issues like housing, affordability, and fiscal management. These files remain the pressure points for the Houston government heading into the Fall legislative Session. The narrowing race in Halifax, where the PCs’ lead over the NDP has now shrunk to just four points, also shows that the governing party is not invulnerable, especially among younger voters who are increasingly drawn to Claudia Chender’s NDP.

For the opposition, however, small incremental gains are not enough. The Liberals, in particular, are struggling to recover under Derek Mombourquette’s interim leadership and not benefitting from Prime Minister Carney’s personal popularity in Atlantic Canada and a stronger Federal Liberal brand across the country.

Heading into the Fall Session, the Progressive Conservatives enjoy the rare combination of a popular leader, a supportive public mood about the province, and an opposition divided between two parties still searching for growth and momentum. Unless affordability pressures intensify and the NDP’s younger voter base continues to grow, the Houston government remains the province’s dominant political force.

Methodology

This research was conducted by online survey with 600 adult Nova Scotians (age 18+) from September 16 to 18, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

PoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Crime and Safety Rise as Top Issue as Parliament Resumes. Liberals and Conservatives tied.

From September 12 to 17, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,230 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. The poll was conducted just before the return of Parliament, providing a clear snapshot of voter sentiment at the end of a quiet but uneasy summer. While headline vote numbers remain stable, the issue environment is shifting, with public safety concerns rising, and some evidence older voters may be starting to drift away from the Liberal camp.

At the same time, overall views of Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government have held steady. But with affordability, the economy, and – to a lesser extent – Trump, dominating public attention, the political landscape remains competitive.

Direction of the Country: Still Static, Still Pessimistic

Public mood about the country’s trajectory remains broadly unchanged. Today, 35% of Canadians say the country is moving in the right direction, while 49% believe things are off on the wrong track. These numbers are nearly identical to our last wave, underlining a persistent feeling of mixed views on the country’s overall direction.

Views of the world (13%) and of the United States (15%) continue to be quite pessimistic.

Top Issues: Crime and Safety Climb, Cost of Living Still Dominates

Affordability remains the dominant public concern: 57% of Canadians identify the rising cost of living as one of their top three issues, down slightly from last wave but still by far the top issue to more people.

The most notable shift is the rise in concern about crime and public safety, now selected by 20% of Canadians, up meaningfully from 16% just two weeks ago. That makes it one of the fastest-rising issues in several weeks, and a clear signal that public anxiety about safety is becoming a national flashpoint.

Concern about crime and public safety is slightly higher among older Canadians, in Ontario and the Prairies, and among Conservative voters. In fact, those who voted Conservative in the last election are almost three times as likely to rate it as a top issue than those who voted Liberal (32% vs. 13%). We will have a more detailed look at public perceptions about crime and public safety out next week.

Concern about Donald Trump and his administration (34%) has declined slightly, continuing its downward drift after hitting the mid-40s earlier this year. 44% of those who voted Liberal rate Trump and his administration as a top issue compared with 21% of Conservative voters.

Other concerns have remained stable:

The economy (37%) and housing affordability (34%) continue to rank just behind affordability. There’s no partisan difference on these issues.

Immigration (28%) and healthcare (31%) round out the second tier, showing continued relevance. 37% of Conservatives and 20% of Liberal voters rate immigration as a top issue.

Government Approval: Holding Steady Amid Economic Jitters

Approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney stands at 50%, unchanged from our last wave. Disapproval also remains static at 30%, pointing to a continued level of support that, while lower than early summer, appears to have stabilized.

The plateau in approval may reflect competing pressures: while Canadians remain uneasy about the economy and affordability, many still see the government as competent and engaged on them leaving with considerable goodwill as the parliamentary session begins.

Leader Impressions: Carney Stable, Poilievre Competitive

Mark Carney’s personal numbers remain stable. This wave, 48% of Canadians say they have a positive impression of the Prime Minister, up 3 since last wave. Negative impressions are down 2 to 30%, giving Carney a net favourability of +18, slightly better than a two weeks ago.

Pierre Poilievre’s ratings have also held steady. 40% view him positively, while 41% view him negatively, resulting in a net rating of -1, a slight improvement from -3 in the previous wave.

Issue Ownership: Liberals lead on the economy, health and Trump. Conservatives lead on immigration, crime, and the cost of living.

The Liberals have a 9-point advantage among those who rate healthcare as a top issue, a 3-point advantage among those who prioritize the economy, and a 37-point advantage among those who rank Trump in their top three issues.

Canadians continue to give the Conservative Party the edge on several other top issues, particularly those rising in public salience:

Crime and public safety: 66% say the Conservatives are best suited to handle the issue, compared to just 17% for the Liberals—a 39-point margin.

Immigration: The Conservatives lead by 43 points (60% to 17%) on an issue that remains a top-5 concern.

Cost of living: Conservatives maintain a 11-point lead (39% to 28%) over the Liberals among those most concerned with affordability.

Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals and Conservatives in a Deadlock

The accessible pool for the Liberal Party is now 58%, up two points. The Conservatives are accessible to 56% of voters, also up slightly. The NDP remains stable at 37%. This suggests a persistently open political environment with both major parties competing for swing voters in a high-stakes fall season.

Vote Intention: Tie in the Topline

If an election were held today, we have the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 40% with the NDP at 8% and the BQ at 7%. The Liberals are down 3 since the last wave, the NDP up 2, and the Conservatives steady.

Regionally, we have the Conservatives slightly ahead in BC, and well ahead in the Prairies. The Liberals are slightly ahead in Ontario, lead by 7 in Quebec over the BQ, and are well ahead in Atlantic Canada.

Demographic Trends: Seniors Shift Toward Conservatives

One of the most important shifts this wave is among Canadians aged 60 and over. Support for the Liberals among this group has dropped from 45% in early September to 42%, while Conservative support has risen from 38% to 40%, effectively eliminating what was a 7-point Liberal lead two weeks ago.

We find no gender gap in vote intentions but the education gap continues with those with a university degree more likely to vote Liberal than those with different types of education.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “This wave of data reveals a political landscape that’s both competitive and unsettled. While headline numbers are steady, the underlying signals point to a rising sense of unease, particularly around affordability and now crime, which has increased in importance.

At the same time, immigration remains a top-tier concern and the economic environment continues to weigh on public confidence. The Carney government’s approval and favourability have stabilized after several waves of decline.

The drop in Liberal support among older Canadians is particularly notable, as it signals potential vulnerability among a group that was critical to the Liberal victory in the last election. We will continue to track this to see if it’s a new trend of just some noise in the data. With Parliament returning and economic pressures mounting, the fall sitting could prove to be a defining period for all parties.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,230 Canadians from September 12 to 17, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

What do Canadians think about AI: A Tool for Progress or a Threat to Stability?

Artificial intelligence is rapidly emerging as one of the most disruptive forces of our time, transforming Canada’s economy, workplaces, and daily life. Its accelerating growth brings exciting opportunities to advance healthcare, education, and innovation, while also sparking serious public concerns about job security, privacy, and the speed of change.

For Canada, AI represents both promise and risk. While it is seemingly a movement that cannot be stopped, its direction is not yet clear. As the Carney government signals its intent to make AI a national priority, the challenge will be to guide this transformation in a way that builds trust, protects people, and ensures the benefits are shared widely.

The decisions made now will shape how Canadians experience this technological revolution, whether AI becomes a tool for progress and prosperity, or a source of fear and division. Understanding how Canadians feel about AI – their hopes, fears, and expectations – will be essential for policymakers as they navigate one of the most disruptive shifts of our time.

The Promise and Peril of AI

Canadians are deeply divided between hope and fear when it comes to AI’s future. Nearly half (47%) believe AI has the power to drive progress and improve lives, but only if it is managed with strong safeguards and oversight. At the same time, 37% view AI like a Pandora’s box – a force that, once unleashed, will be impossible to control.

This cautious optimism cuts across the political spectrum, with 43% of Conservatives, 49% of Liberals, and 48% of NDP supporters agreeing that AI’s benefits are possible, but only under strict management. This points to a potential crossroad: Canadians see the transformative potential of AI, but fear that without decisive action, its risks could quickly spiral out of control.

AI as a Threat or a Tool

A majority of Canadians (61%) believe AI poses a threat that could harm employment, personal privacy, and the stability of Canadian society. In contrast, 39% see AI as a powerful tool to improve life in Canada.

Older Canadians are particularly wary, with 71% of those aged 60+ viewing AI as a threat. Women are also more cautious (67%) than men (45%), while younger Canadians (49% of those aged 18-29 and 50% of those aged 30-44) are more optimistic than those older, seeing AI as a potential driver of progress.

This skepticism cuts across political lines, with supporters of all three major federal parties sharing similar concerns: 61% of Conservatives, 58% of Liberals, and 69% of NDP supporters agree that AI could harm jobs, privacy, and stability.

Where Canadians See the Most Potential

Despite these fears, Canadians see opportunities for AI to improve key parts of society. They believe its greatest potential lies in healthcare (37%), followed by business productivity (33%) and education (29%).

Younger Canadians stand out for their optimism: among those aged 18-29, 43% see AI improving business productivity and 44% see potential in education and personalized learning. In contrast, older Canadians are far more skeptical, with many believing AI will have no positive impact.

Trust in the Federal Government

Canadians are sharply divided on whether the federal government can be trusted to oversee AI in a way that protects the public: 48% express trust, while 52% do not.

Trust is far from evenly distributed. Younger Canadians (62%) and Liberal voters (62%) are significantly more likely to believe the government will regulate AI effectively. In contrast, older Canadians (62%), women (57%), and Conservative voters (65%) express the highest levels of distrust.

This fragile foundation of public confidence suggests that building trust will require more than regulation alone. Canadians need clear communication, transparency, and tangible action to feel reassured that AI will be managed responsibly.

Finding the Right Balance in AI Regulation

While Canadians are divided on whether to trust government, most agree on what regulation should look like. A strong majority (73%) believe AI rules must strike a balance between safety and innovation, rejecting both extreme restrictions that could stifle progress and a hands-off approach that could invite risk.

This consensus cuts across political lines, with widespread agreement among Conservatives (71%), Liberals (73%), and NDP voters (80%). Canadians are sending a clear message: they want thoughtful, moderate rules that protect people while encouraging innovation.

Who Should Control AI in Canada

With a strong demand for balance, the question becomes who should lead Canada’s AI strategy. A plurality of Canadians (34%) believe the federal government should take the lead, while just 19% trust tech companies to do so.

This reflects skepticism toward private industry, as many Canadians are wary of leaving powerful technologies in the hands of corporations driven by profit rather than public interest. However, given the fragile trust in government, the challenge is clear: people want government oversight, but they aren’t fully confident any institution is ready to manage AI’s risks.

Preparing for Job Displacement

As AI continues to advance, the threat of widespread job loss is a top concern for Canadians. Voters are looking to government for policies that soften the economic and social impact of this disruption.

The most popular solution is a basic income guarantee (32%), ensuring displaced workers can maintain financial stability. Another 26% want major investments in re-skilling programs to help people transition into new careers, while 22% support limits on how quickly companies can adopt AI to give workers and communities more time to adapt.

These results send a strong message to policymakers – Canadians expect government to lead in managing the human cost of AI, not just its technical and economic implications.

The Upshot

Artificial intelligence is no longer an abstract concept on the horizon – it is here. It is reshaping economies, industries, and communities at a pace that few fully understand. For Canadians, this rapid shift brings both excitement and deep unease. There is a clear recognition that AI has the potential to transform healthcare, education, and productivity, but also a profound fear that it could disrupt jobs, threaten privacy, and destabilize society.

At the heart of this tension is uncertainty. Canadians don’t yet know what AI will mean for their lives, and they are unsure whether anyone – government or industry – can manage its risks. While many want government to take the lead, trust is fragile. People are looking for leadership that not only sets rules but also demonstrates, through action, that AI can be guided responsibly. Without this, skepticism will grow, and public support for innovation will falter.

As the Carney government signals its intention to make AI a cornerstone of its agenda, the challenge will be to move decisively while bringing Canadians along. Regulation must strike the right balance: protecting people and communities while allowing innovation to thrive. Canadians will also expect more than guardrails – they will want to see investments that help workers adapt, families stay secure, and communities withstand the disruptions AI will bring.

AI is a movement that cannot be stopped, but how it unfolds in Canada is still an open question. The government’s task now is to build trust and demonstrate that progress is possible without leaving people behind. The stakes are high: get it right, and AI can become a force for shared prosperity; get it wrong, and it risks becoming a source of fear and division.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from August 28 to September 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/nities are equally significant. In a period where trust is scarce, those who can provide credible reassurance and demonstrate tangible value will can shape public opinion and the pressure placed on our policy makers.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian PoliticsConsumer BehaviourInsightsPublic Policy

Canadians Are Anxious but Pragmatic. Leaders Should Take Note

As Parliament resumes today, Canada enters a period of both uncertainty and possibility. Public opinion reflects a population that is anxious about the future but pragmatic about the choices ahead. For leaders in business, labour, and associations, understanding this mood is critical: it shapes not only the political environment but also the space in which organizations advocate, negotiate, and grow.

An Age of Precarity

Canadians are living in what can best be described as an age of precarity. People are worried about the rising cost of living, the difficulty of affording a home, and strains in healthcare. At the same time, they are watching global turbulence unfold — from Donald Trump and the growing instability of trade relationships to war and conflict around the world.

This combination of domestic strain and external risk is making Canadians more skeptical and more demanding. They want reassurance, but they are not looking for ideological experiments. Instead, they are asking for competence, clarity, and tangible results.

For leaders, the opportunity is to align strategies with this pragmatic mindset. The risk is in ignoring it and appearing disconnected from the mood of the country.

A Competitive Political Environment

Politically, Canada is in a dead heat. The Liberals under Mark Carney and the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre are running neck and neck. Neither enjoys a decisive advantage, and both face limits to their appeal.

This balance creates a unique environment for external actors. Governments under pressure to compete for trust are more open to credible ideas, partnerships, and evidence-based advocacy. But the flip side is volatility: policy positions can shift quickly, and today’s consensus can become tomorrow’s battleground (like immigration or climate policy).

For associations and unions, this means advocacy strategies must be nimble. For businesses, it means preparing for scenarios in which government policy takes different turns depending on political winds.

The Demand for Tangible Results

Canadians want action on affordability and growth. They are pragmatic about fiscal choices: open to restraint if necessary, but not enthusiastic about austerity for its own sake. They want projects and policies that clearly improve their lives, not just national statistics.

This creates a challenge: grand narratives about competitiveness or growth are not enough. People want to see how those decisions will help them manage their costs, find housing, or secure healthcare. Leaders who can connect macro policies to micro benefits will find receptive audiences.

The opportunity lies in framing proposals around tangible outcomes for households. The risk is in relying on abstract arguments about long-term growth or competitiveness without grounding them in immediate benefits.

Trade, Technology, and Workforce Tensions

Two areas deserve special attention.

First, trade with the United States. Canadians see it as essential but also as a source of great risk. They expect turbulence, whether through renegotiations of trade agreements or new tariffs. For leaders, this means diversifying markets and supply chains isn’t just smart strategy, it aligns with public expectations. The opportunity is to show resilience and adaptability. The risk is being seen as too exposed to forces beyond our control.

Second, technology and immigration. Canadians are ambivalent about artificial intelligence. Some see opportunity, others fear disruption. Immigration, too, has become a more divisive issue, with labour market programs under scrutiny. For businesses and unions, this means engaging directly in the debate, offering credible reassurances about how these forces can benefit Canadians rather than threaten them. The opportunity is to lead the narrative. The risk is ceding it to those who exploit fear.

The Path Forward

In an age of precarity, leadership requires two things: reassurance and relevance. Canadians are pragmatic. They will support difficult decisions if those decisions are explained clearly and connected to their lived experiences. They are open to adjustment and change, but they want to know it will make their own lives more secure.

For business, association, and union leaders, the task is to frame proposals in terms of both national interest and household impact. Show how your sector helps reduce costs, create jobs, and provide stability. Demonstrate resilience in the face of global uncertainty. And engage in debates about technology, trade, and workforce policy with clarity and confidence.

The risks of this moment are real: volatility, skepticism, and political competition can undermine progress. But the opportunities are equally significant. In a period where trust is scarce, those who can provide credible reassurance and demonstrate tangible value will can shape public opinion and the pressure placed on our policy makers.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian PoliticsConsumer BehaviourGenerational ChangeInsightsInternational AffairsPublic Policy

Canadians Enter the Fall with Heightened Anxiety About Stability and the Future

For many Canadians, September is a time to reset. Kids and students head back to school. Parliament resumes after the summer break, and now troubling headlines about a slowing economy and rising unemployment fill news reports. These moments, while familiar, feel different this year. They come against a backdrop of deepening uncertainty, where families are being forced to make harder choices and where even small disruptions can create cascading effects on household budgets and future plans.

Earlier this year, we introduced the concept of a precarity mindset: a growing feeling that stability is fragile and the next disruption always feels close at hand. Our recent release revealed how this mindset has taken root, showing a sharp rise in the number of Canadians reporting high and extreme levels of perceived precarity.

This follow-up looks at how that growing sense of precarity is playing out in the day-to-day lives of Canadians. It explores what families are feeling as back-to-school costs pile up, how financial fragility is forcing people to delay major life milestones, and how anxiety about the future is leaving many feeling emotionally exhausted as the fall political season begins.

What we find is clear: precarity is no longer just a set of economic indicators or a mood in the polling numbers – it is a lived, daily reality for millions of Canadians. And as Parliament returns, leaders will face the challenge of not just managing short-term crises, and building for the long-term, but rebuilding confidence that the systems Canadians depend on are strong enough to weather what comes next.

Affording the Basics

For many Canadians, precarity isn’t an abstract concept, it’s a lived, daily reality that shows up every time they open their wallets. Nearly two-thirds (62%) report worrying, at least occasionally, about their ability to afford the basics in the past month, and one in three (33%) say this worry strikes several times a week.

This anxiety cuts sharply across age, income, and family life. It’s highest among younger Canadians – 81% of those 18–29 and 70% of those 30–44 worry regularly about covering essentials. Families with children under 12 are also deeply affected (74%), especially during back-to-school season when added costs for supplies and activities spike stress. Lower-income households (73%) face similar strain, highlighting how financial pressure hits hardest for those already struggling.

The link to precarity levels is unmistakable. Among Canadians with a high level of perceived precarity, nearly three-quarters (74%) worry about affording the basics, while that figure jumps to 84% among those in feeling extreme precarity. These numbers reveal how economic unease is concentrated most heavily among those already living closest to the edge, where even small disruptions, like a missed paycheck or unexpected expense, can quickly spiral into crisis.

Fragile Financial Security

When asked how long they could maintain their current standard of living if their main source of income was lost, almost half of Canadians (47%) say less than three months. This financial fragility is greatest among younger Canadians – 59% of those 18–29 and 55% of those 30–44 say they could not sustain their lifestyle beyond that window. Lower-income households earning under $50,000 are even more exposed, with 62% reporting they could not last three months.

Here again, the precarity lens sharpens the picture. Those in our high precarity (55%) and extreme precarity groups (51%) are far more likely to acknowledge their limited financial runway, showing how precariousness translates into an immediate sense of insecurity about the future.

This financial fragility underscores how precarity is not just about attitudes – it reflects a very real vulnerability to economic disruption.

Life on Hold: How Precarity Delays Major Decisions

The current economic, political, and social climate is causing many Canadians to put their lives on pause. Across the country, 27% say they’ve avoided making a major purchase, 12% have delayed buying a home, and 11% have postponed changing jobs or careers due to uncertainty.

However, a closer look at the data reveals that younger Canadians and young families are feeling this pressure most acutely. Among those aged 18–29:

  • 23% have postponed starting or growing their family.
  • 23% have postponed moving to a new city or province.
  • 21% have delayed buying a home.
  • 21% have held off on changing jobs or careers.
  • 19% have delayed pursuing higher education or skills training.

The same trend is seen among households with young children, highlighting how today’s environment is disproportionately impacting those at pivotal life stages. For young adults and parents alike, precarity isn’t just about day-to-day stress – it’s reshaping the milestones that define adulthood, forcing many to hold off on decisions that could shape their futures.

What Keeps Canadians Up at Night

When Canadians think about their family’s future, cost of living looms largest – 59% cite it as their greatest source of anxiety. Housing affordability and security follows at 34%, alongside concerns about access to quality healthcare (30%), global events (25%), and stable employment or income (24%).

Demographic divides show how different generations process risk. Canadians aged 45–59 are most likely to worry about the rising cost of living (66%), while those 60+ are significantly more concerned with healthcare (44%) and global instability (34%). By contrast, younger adults (18–29) express higher levels of concern about employment and income security (36%).

Overlaying the precarity index reveals sharper differences. Canadians in high precarity are most likely to highlight cost of living (66%) and housing affordability (40%) as pressing issues. Those in extreme precarity are distinct: alongside cost of living, they express significantly heightened concern about climate change (33%), reflecting how their anxieties extend beyond immediate economic stress to broader long-term risks.

The Emotional Toll of Precarity

This climate of insecurity leaves a heavy emotional mark. Most Canadians report feeling worried about the year ahead (43%), while roughly a quarter say they feel exhausted (27%) or powerless (27%). Yet there is still resilience – 29% say they feel hopeful about what’s to come.

These emotions map closely to levels of precarity. Those in extreme precarity are most likely to feel worried (55%) and powerless (39%). Canadians in high precarity mirror that worry (55%) but are also more likely to report exhaustion (36%). By contrast, those in low precarity are significantly more optimistic, with 36% saying they feel hopeful about the year ahead.

The balance between worry and hope is defined by how secure – or exposed – Canadians feel in today’s uncertain climate.

The Upshot

As Parliament prepares to resume, kids head back to school, and headlines about a slowing economy dominate the news, Canadians are entering the fall with a growing sense of uncertainty. What began as concern over rising prices and was disrupted by fears of Trump’s tariffs, has evolved into something deeper: a precarity mindset, where stability feels fragile and the next disruption always seems close at hand.

For households, especially those with young children, precarity has become part of everyday life. Rising costs and fragile finances are forcing families to make difficult trade-offs, while even small disruptions can quickly throw carefully balanced budgets into chaos. This uncertainty goes beyond day-to-day stress; it is reshaping the milestones that define adulthood. Many young adults and families are putting their futures on pause, delaying decisions about buying a home, changing careers, or growing their families because the future feels too unpredictable.

For the economy, this creates a ripple effect. When households focus on survival rather than growth, they spend less, take fewer risks, and hold back on investments, slowing recovery and deepening the very vulnerabilities that caused the hesitation in the first place.

Taken together, these forces signal a pivotal moment. The return to Parliament comes at a time when Canadians are not just grappling with temporary shocks, but with a deeper question: whether the systems they rely on – housing, healthcare, jobs, and education – are strong enough to withstand what comes next. How leaders respond in the months ahead will shape whether this period of heightened precarity becomes a lasting source of division and distrust, or a turning point that restores confidence and stability.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,686 Canadian adults from July 31 to August 7, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.39%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogConsumer BehaviourInsightsPolitics

Abacus Data Poll: Canadians Divided on Temporary Foreign Worker Program as Generational, Regional, and Political Fault Lines Emerge

A new Abacus Data survey finds the country deeply divided on whether to eliminate Canada’s Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), with support strongest among younger Canadians, residents of the Prairies, and Conservative voters.

Following a recent proposal by Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to phase out the program, nearly half of Canadians say they support its elimination. While 44% support the move, 30% oppose it, and 18% are neutral or undecided.

But beneath the surface of the top-line numbers, a more fractured picture emerges. One that makes this a textbook wedge issue.

Generational divides are stark. Support for eliminating the TFWP peaks among Canadians aged 30 to 44 (50%) and 18 to 29 (48%), pointing to anxieties around wages, job opportunities, and affordability. By contrast, support dips among older Canadians. Just 37% of those aged 60 and over support the proposal indicating greater concern about workforce stability and economic disruption.

Regionally, the divide is just as pronounced. Support reaches a majority in Alberta (54%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (49%), while Ontario hovers close behind at 48%. In contrast, only 34% of Quebec residents support eliminating the program, making it the most resistant province.

Politically, the data reveals a clear fault line. 61% of Conservative voters support eliminating the TFWP, aligning closely with party leadership. Only 17% are oposed.

However, and why this may become an effective wedge for the Conservatives – views among past Liberal voters is almost evenly split. 37% support the idea while 39% oppose it creating a difficult position for the Carney government.

The Upshot

This could develop into one of the most divisive issues on the political landscape cutting cleanly across age, region, and political affiliation. Immigration has risen over the last three years to one of the top 5 issues in the country with close to 1 in 4 putting it in their top 3 national issues.

The proposal to end the Temporary Foreign Worker Program is more than a policy suggestion; it may be seen by many people as a litmus test for broader questions around economic fairness, national identity, and the future of Canada’s labour market.

Proponents of keeping the program in place have a clear challenge ahead: to make a compelling case that the benefits of temporary foreign workers outweigh the perceived risks. With a large segment of the public still neutral or unsure, the conversation is far from settled.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadians from September 4 to 7, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

Abacus Data Poll: Carney’s Liberals Regain Lead as Economy Woes Grow

From August 28 to September 2, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. The poll was conducted over the Labour Day long weekend, following Pierre Poilievre’s byelection win in Calgary and just ahead of the federal cabinet’s late-summer retreat. The data capture a moment of political pause but economic unease, as fresh GDP figures showed that the Canadian economy contracted in the second quarter of 2025—marking the first quarterly decline in nearly two years.

Against this backdrop, the numbers reveal subtle but notable movement: approval of the federal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney continues its slow descent, Carney’s personal favourables have softened further, and concerns about the economy are climbing back toward the top of the political agenda. The Liberals have regained a narrow lead in vote intention, but it’s the directional signs that may be more telling than any single datapoint.

Direction of the Country: Static, But Not Optimistic

Views of the country’s direction remain essentially unchanged. Just over a third of Canadians (35%) believe things are moving in the right direction, while 48% say the country is on the wrong track. These numbers have held steady across the summer, suggesting a persistent undercurrent of concern, though not an active deterioration. Views of the world (13% right direction) and of the United States (14%) remain bleak, underscoring the sustained pessimism in broader international outlooks.

Top Issues: Affordability Tops the List as Economic Concern Grows

The rising cost of living remains the defining issue of the moment. Six in ten Canadians (61%) name it among their top three concerns, virtually unchanged from mid-August. But what’s shifting is the salience of the broader economy: 39% now cite it as a top concern by as many people as the Trump administration, up from 36% in the last wave. This increase is likely tied to renewed attention following the news that Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in Q2, a development that’s reignited public and political debate about whether the recovery is faltering.

Housing affordability (30%) and healthcare (33%) round out the top four, while concern about Donald Trump and his administration continues to fade. Just 37% of respondents now list Trump as a top issue, down one point from two weeks ago and well off the highs seen earlier in the year. Immigration, meanwhile, remains mid-pack at 28%, stable in both ranking and intensity.

Government Approval: Gradual Erosion Continues

Approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney now sits at 48%, down a point from our previous wave. Disapproval has edged up to 30%. These figures are still relatively strong in historical context, but the trend is clear: the government’s approval rating has been slowly drifting downward since early summer, with no sign yet of a rebound.

The current slide may reflect growing economic anxiety and the sense among some Canadians that while the government is competent, it may not be moving fast enough to address affordability and economic concerns.

Leader Impressions: Carney’s Numbers Dip Slightly, Poilievre Holds Ground

Mark Carney continues to maintain a net positive favourability rating, but the gap is narrowing. This wave, 48% of Canadians express a favourable view of the Prime Minister, down one point, while 35% view him unfavourably, up slightly. His net rating now stands at +13, down from +18 two weeks ago and +21 in mid-July. The erosion is subtle but sustained, and notably, his ratings have declined across most regions and demographic groups.

Pierre Poilievre’s numbers remain steady. He is viewed favourably by 39% and unfavourably by 42%, for a net rating of -3, down from the previous wave. His numbers continue to be stronger among younger men and in the Prairies, while trailing in Quebec and among older Canadians (60+).

Issue Ownership: Conservatives Lead on Economy and Cost of Living

When Canadians are asked which party is best able to handle the issues they care most about, the Conservatives continue to lead on the economic front. On cost of living, they hold a 9-point advantage over the Liberals (38% to 29%), and a 7-point lead on managing the economy overall (43% to 36%), among the 39% of people who put that issue in their top 3.

They also dominate on immigration, where 60% believe the Conservatives are best equipped, compared to just 18% for the Liberals.

However, the Liberal Party continues to hold clear advantages on other issues: they are the preferred party on climate change (33% to the Conservatives’ 12%) and on handling the Trump administration and U.S.-Canada relations (55% vs. 23%) and on healthcare (33% to 24%).

Accessible Voter Pools: Flat and Competitive

The Liberal Party remains accessible to 56% of Canadians, statistically unchanged from our last wave. The Conservatives follow closely at 52%. The NDP’s accessible pool sits at 34%, also unchanged. Regionally, the Liberals continue to lead in Ontario and Quebec, while the Conservatives are ahead in B.C..

Vote Intention: Liberals back in the lead

If an election were held today, 43% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Liberal Party, up four points since mid-August. The Conservatives are at 40%, down one point. The NDP holds at 6%, Bloc Québécois at 7%, Greens at 2%, and the PPC at 1%.

Among those certain to vote, the race is a dead heat: both Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 42%. This suggests the Liberals may benefit slightly from a turnout advantage—particularly among older voters, where their support remains stronger.

Demographic Trends: Stability in the Divides

The underlying demographic patterns remain familiar. The Liberals lead among women by seven points, while the Conservatives lead among men by a similar margin. Carney’s party maintains an 11-point advantage among university-educated voters, while the Conservatives lead among those with a college diploma or less education.

By age, the Liberals lead among voters under 45 and over 60, while the Conservatives hold a notable lead among those aged 45 to 59.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “While the top-level vote numbers suggest relative stability, underneath we continue to observe slow but meaningful erosion in the Carney government’s standing. His personal favourables remain in net-positive territory, but they’ve been drifting downward for several weeks. More notably, government approval remains below 50%, and Canadians are increasingly anxious about the economic outlook.

The fact that the economy contracted in Q2—the first decline in nearly two years—is likely to reinforce that anxiety. That’s not an easy environment for an incumbent government. As concerns about affordability and economic management become more top-of-mind, feeling that the government is responsive to those concerns becomes more important.

The summer of political calm may be ending. With Parliament returning and the government facing rising pressure to respond to economic headwinds, we could see more significant movement in the months ahead.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from August 28 to September 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics