The Changing Landscape of Grocery Shopping in Canada

Between April 16 and 21, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,920 Canadian adults (18+) to explore how rising costs, international trade tensions, and broader economic concerns are shaping grocery shopping behaviors. Grocery shopping in Canada has shifted from a routine task to a delicate balancing act. Canadians are now more focused on stretching their dollars and making strategic purchasing decisions, driven by the uncertainties of inflation, international trade tensions, and the rising cost of living. This shift reflects a broader societal trend: the rise of the precarity mindset. More than just reacting to short-term pressures, this mindset signals long-term changes in how Canadians think about money, consumption, and their financial security.

International Trade Tensions and the Growing Concern Over Grocery Prices

A major factor driving the shift toward cautious spending is concern over international trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. 70% of Canadians are worried that these tensions, such as U.S. tariffs, will cause further increases in grocery prices over the next six months. This reflects a broader sense of financial insecurity that many Canadians are grappling with, as they face growing uncertainty about their ability to manage future expenses.

In line with these concerns, 61% of Canadians lack confidence in their ability to afford groceries six months from now. This uncertainty is especially pronounced among those with household incomes under $50,000, with 73% of this group worried they won’t be able to afford the groceries they need if prices continue to rise. This highlights the growing financial strain felt by many, especially lower-income Canadians, underscoring the need for strategies that address both rising costs and the uncertainty surrounding future affordability.

Cautious Consumption and Strategic Shopping

As the cost of living continues to impact the lives of Canadians, many are adopting more cautious consumption habits, driven by the precarity mindset. 83% of Canadians are now more careful about what they buy, reflecting a growing sense of uncertainty about the future. 81% of consumers are planning their meals around sales and discounts, while 76% are avoiding premium or non-essential items, even if they once enjoyed them.

In terms of priorities, Canadians are increasingly focused on essentials. 56% are now primarily concerned with getting the most value for their money, a shift that has led many to forgo luxury items. For example, 35% have stopped purchasing “nice-to-have” items, instead focusing on affordable, value-driven products.

Income plays a significant role in how Canadians are adjusting their shopping behaviors. Those with household incomes under $50,000 are particularly vulnerable to rising food costs, with 59% focused on maximizing value with every purchase. These households are more likely to stop buying non-essential items (44%) and prioritize affordability, choosing products that fill them up (41%).

Mindful and Strategic Choices

The shift toward cautious consumption is not just about cutting back—it’s about becoming more strategic and disciplined in how Canadians approach food shopping. 32% of Canadians are now making more methodical, strategic decisions when it comes to food purchases, with 33% aligning their shopping habits with what truly matters to them. However, income plays a significant role in how this shift manifests.

Those with a household income less than $50,000 are more focused on just getting through the week, with 26% trying to make it to the next payday and 24% prioritizing affordability over preferences. In contrast, those with a household income of $100,000 or more are more likely to make mindful choices that reflect their values (38%) and become more strategic in their food purchases (36%). This income-driven split shows how cautious consumption varies based on financial reality.

As a result, many consumers are leaning more toward store brands and discount products. 42% of Canadians are now purchasing more store-brand or discount items, and 39% are using coupons, flyers, or loyalty points to stretch their grocery budgets further. In fact, 36% have even switched to more affordable grocery stores in response to rising prices. This shift also extends to cutting back on non-essential items, with 43% reducing their purchases of snacks and treats, 37% cutting down on convenience foods, and 34% forgoing premium items altogether.

The Long-Term Shift in Consumer Mindsets

While some Canadians may view these changes as short-term responses to current economic conditions, there is growing evidence that these shifts represent a long-term change in consumer behavior. 34% of Canadians believe their cautious spending is a mix of short-term responses and longer-term shifts in how they approach money and consumption. Interestingly, 23% of Canadians think their habits will persist even if prices decrease, signaling that the impact of the precarity mindset will likely endure.

If grocery budgets were to loosen, 37% of Canadians would still shop carefully, demonstrating that their cautious, value-driven approach to shopping is likely to remain. Even if financial constraints ease, many Canadians have become so accustomed to their new frugality that they would continue to prioritize strategic choices based on what matters most to them, whether that’s healthier food options or lower-priced essentials.

The Upshot

The shift toward cautious consumption, driven by the precarity mindset, presents both challenges and opportunities for grocers and brands. As Canadians become more strategic and mindful in their shopping habits, they are increasingly focused on balancing value, quality, and affordability. This shift reflects a broader change in consumer priorities, one that values long-term sustainability and financial security over immediate gratification.

For grocers and brands, this means moving beyond traditional discounting strategies and instead emphasizing value-driven offerings. Consumers are looking for products that deliver more than just a low price, they want transparency in pricing, consistent quality, and products that align with their evolving needs. Grocers that can offer high-quality store brands and affordable options will be better positioned to build long-term trust and customer loyalty.

Moreover, the precarity mindset is not a temporary reaction but a profound shift in how consumers approach spending. Even as financial pressures ease, many Canadians are likely to retain their focus on mindful, strategic shopping. For brands, this means the traditional models of marketing based solely on discounts or premium products may no longer suffice. Brands will need to demonstrate how they add value beyond just the price tag, whether through product durability, ethical or local sourcing, or added benefits that justify their price.

Ultimately, grocers and brands that understand and adapt to this evolving consumer mindset will be better equipped to thrive in a landscape defined by caution, conscious consumption, and long-term value. By staying attuned to the changing needs of the consumer, the grocery sector can build stronger, longer-lasting relationships with Canadians in an era of economic uncertainty.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,920 Canadian adults from April 16 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.  found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

BlogConsumer BehaviourPolls

Abacus Data Nova Scotia Poll: Tim Houston’s PCs Hold Commanding Lead as Opposition Remains Divided

We are back with new political numbers from Nova Scotia.

Our latest Nova Scotia omnibus survey, conducted from May 23 to 29, 2025 with 800 adults, finds Premier Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives holding a commanding lead over their political rivals, one month after the federal election and six months after winning a “supermajority” in the 2024 provincial election.

Houston’s PCs continue to dominate Nova Scotia’s political landscape and benefit from a divided opposition.

PC SUPPORT HOLDING STEADY AT 55%

Among decided voters in Nova Scotia, 55% say they would vote for Houston’s PCs if a provincial election were held today. This is virtually unchanged from March (down 1 point), and it is 2 points higher than the party’s performance in last provincial election (53%).

This puts the PCs more than 30 points ahead of the second-place NDP and reflects continued public approval of the government’s direction on key files such as defending Nova Scotia’s interests in the US trade war, fixing healthcare, and advancing their (big) energy and natural resources agenda.

OPPOSITION VOTE REMAINS FRAGMENTED

Claudia Chender’s NDP now sits at 22%, down four points since March and back to the level of support it received in the 2024 election (also 22%). While the NDP remains the clear second-place party, its recent dip in support has opened a little bit of space for others to gain ground.

The Nova Scotia Liberals, now led by Derek Mombourquette, are up slightly to 15%, showing a modest rebound after their post-election low of 13% in our March survey. The Greens and other parties also see small increases, with the Greens now at 2% and other parties collectively at 5%.

With no single opposition party gaining significant momentum, the anti-PC vote remains too fractured to pose a serious challenge to Houston’s government.

REGIONAL & DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWNS

Houston’s PCs continue to lead in every region of the province and by large margins.

  • Mainland Nova Scotia: PCs at 62%, Liberals at 15%, NDP at 11% — a 47-point PC lead.
  • Cape Breton: PCs at 59%, NDP at 21%, Liberals at 17% — a 38-point PC lead.
  • Halifax Municipality: PCs at 49%, NDP at 31%, Liberals at 14% — an 18-point PC lead.

The PCs also maintain strong support across all age groups, with the widest gap being among older Nova Scotians:

  • 45 and older: 64% support the PCs.
  • Under 45: 43% support the PCs — still a strong showing, in spite of being 21 points lower than it is among older Nova Scotians.

Notably, the Liberals have seen a significant recovery among younger voters, climbing 15 points since March in the under-45 age category (from 7% to 22%). This puts the Liberals in a tie-for- second with the NDP among younger Nova Scotians.

The PCs also lead among men and women. Currently, 59% of women and 51% of men say they would vote PC.

IS THERE A CARNEY EFFECT?

With Mark Carney now serving as Prime Minister, some have wondered if his personal popularity might lift the provincial Liberal brand in Nova Scotia. While it’s too soon to draw definitive conclusions, the Liberals’ modest two-point gain since March could be an early indicator.

Still, the Nova Scotia Liberals remain well below their 2024 provincial election result (23%), and the path back to competitiveness will require more than riding federal coattails. The upcoming leadership race may offer the Liberals a chance to regain ground if they can attract the right leader and build momentum.

THE UPSHOT

Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives remain the dominant political force in Nova Scotia. With 55% of the decided voters and double-digit leads across all regions and age groups, the PCs would win another “supermajority” if a provincial election was held today.

Claudia Chender’s NDP continues to hold the Official Opposition spot, but their support has slipped slightly since March. While Chender’s party remains strong in Halifax, they need to make in-roads in other parts of the province to be more competitive overall.

For their part, the Liberals have shown a small but notable improvement in recent months, particularly among younger voters. Whether this signals the start of a broader recovery remains to be seen, but any rebound will depend on their ability to reconnect with voters and not just hope that the Prime Minister’s political magic will rub off on them too.

With the opposition divided, and no single party consolidating the non-PC vote, the Houston government has the time, space, and political capital to do big things with their second mandate. The challenge before them now is to deliver the significant change and economic activity that the Premier and his Ministers have been promising, keeping the public well-informed and engaged along the way.      

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 800 adults living in Nova Scotia from May 23 to 29, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.47%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Provincial Politics

Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford Government Approval Hits New High; PCs lead by 21

In our first survey of Ontario public opinion since the February provincial election, we find Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives in an enviable position. With a solid majority under their belt, a largely disinterested opposition, and a public more preoccupied with economic uncertainty and global affairs than provincial scandal or friction, the Ford government is benefiting from both competence perceptions and a remarkably quiet political environment.

The numbers speak for themselves. If an election were held today, 49 percent of committed voters in Ontario say they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, up four points since the last survey we conducted just before the election in February. The Ontario Liberals sit at 28 percent, down slightly by one point, while the NDP has fallen to 14 percent, a two-point drop. The Greens hold steady at 5 percent, and other parties account for 4 percent.

These are not small margins. A 21-point lead over the second-place Liberals is rare in any political context. But for a third-term government battling economic insecurity, it is even more remarkable.

Ford’s Approval Hits a High

When we look beyond vote intention to overall job approval, the results are equally impressive. Today, 44 percent of Ontarians approve of the job Ford and his government are doing, up two points since our January tracking and the highest we have measured since August 2023. Disapproval stands at 31 percent, down three points from earlier this year.

The trend line tells the story. Since late 2023, Ford’s approval numbers have steadily improved. After dipping in the fall, evaluations of the Premier and his government began to recover just ahead of the February election. Since then, they have continued to climb. What we are seeing now is the best standing for the Ford government in nearly two years (and likely since it was elected in 2018).

The Coalition Behind the Lead

The PC advantage is broad and deep. They lead across all regions of the province. In the GTHA, where elections are won and lost, the PCs are at 50 percent, with the Liberals at 31 and the NDP at 12. In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs dominate with 59 percent of the vote compared to 20 percent for the Liberals and 11 percent for the NDP. In Eastern Ontario, the PCs are at 50 percent, with the Liberals at 27.

Demographically, the PCs lead among men and women, with a particularly strong lead among those aged 45 to 59, where they command 60 percent of the vote. Among voters over 60, they still lead comfortably, while among younger voters aged 18 to 29, the race is tighter: the PCs sit at 42 percent, with the Liberals at 33 and the Greens at 9.

This suggests a strong generational dimension to Ford’s support: older Ontarians, likely more focused on economic and geopolitical stability, are sticking with the government. Younger Ontarians, while less hostile to Ford than in the past, are more fragmented in their preferences.

Ford’s Personal Brand Is Firming Up

Doug Ford’s personal ratings are also improving. Today, 44 percent of Ontarians say they have a positive impression of the Premier, while 33 percent view him negatively, giving him a net impression of +11—the highest of any provincial party leader.

By comparison, Bonnie Crombie’s net impression is -2, with 31 percent positive and 33 percent negative. Marit Stiles sits at +3, but a large share of Ontarians say they don’t know enough about her to say. Mike Schreiner of the Greens has a similar profile: mildly positive impressions, but low visibility.

This makes Ford, by far, the most defined political brand in the province. Ontarians know who he is, and right now, a plurality like what they see.

National Presence, Local Benefit

Some of this goodwill may also stem from how Premier Ford has handled himself on the national stage. In a time when the country is looking for stability, Ford has played a constructive role—forming pragmatic alliances with other premiers, supporting the new federal government’s efforts to strengthen the economy, and positioning Ontario as a leading voice in confederation. For many voters, he appears less partisan, more collaborative, and focused on results. That kind of leadership stands out in today’s political environment, and it is likely adding to his personal appeal and the PC Party’s strength in the province.

What’s Driving This?

Several factors are likely contributing to this political environment.

First, the opposition is divided, uncoordinated, and lower profile. Bonnie Crombie is still defining herself. Marit Stiles remains largely unknown outside of NDP circles. And Mike Schreiner, while respected, has a narrow base. The result is a field of challengers who, individually and collectively, are not posing a serious threat.

Second, many Ontarians are not focused on Queen’s Park right now. They are worried about inflation, affordability, housing, and increasingly, what Trump’s policies could mean for Canada. In that context, the Ford government appears stable, calm, and focused. There is little political drama, few controversies, and no looming crisis. Even some of the friction created by Bill 5 doesn’t seem to have made much impact.

Third, the relationship between federal and provincial politics remains significant. While this survey did not include questions about the federal government specific to Ontario, the Ford government may be benefiting from the increasing popularity of the Carney government – especially as they continue to work together on several fronts.

The Upshot

Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs are in a commanding position. With 49 percent of the vote and the highest approval rating in nearly two years, the government remains in a very strong position, a months after its re-election.

The Premier’s personal brand is firming up. The opposition is stalled. And the public mood is oriented more towards macroeconomic and international concerns than provincial partisanship. That is a recipe for stability, and for now, a government that appears more popular than ever.

Whether this holds depends on what happens next. The economy is still fragile. The housing crisis remains unresolved. And Trump could introduce new anxieties that ripple across all levels of Canadian politics. But for now, the Ford government has time, space, and public goodwill. In politics, that is a rare combination, and one the Premier will no doubt seek to maintain and leverage to push his agenda forward.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from June 2 to 5, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Nova Scotians are Thinking Big, Dreaming of Being an Energy and Resource Superpower

At Abacus Data, we always go deep. One of the ways we make sure we collect the data and insights our clients need is by putting lots of questions in field, but sometimes single questions reveal big insights all by themselves. 

At the end of May, we asked 800 adults living in Nova Scotia a forward-looking question in our Nova Scotia omnibus survey: If you could choose a future outcome for the province by 2040 from this list, what would it be?

We asked this question, because we wanted to better understand the future that Nova Scotians see for themselves, and the scale of those ambitions.

The results we are sharing here also reveal something else. They provide a little window into the work Premier Tim Houston and his PC government has been doing to advance Nova Scotia’s interests and who currently shares (and doesn’t share) their big aspirations.  

Take a look…   

What’s the big dream for Nova Scotia and Nova Scotians? It’s becoming an energy and resource superpower by 2040.

Start your engines! A remarkable thirty-five percent of Nova Scotians picked being an energy and resource superpower from the list of future outcomes we provided, far outpacing the second most-popular dream of transforming the Cabot Trail into a world-famous cycling and hiking destination (23%). Other future outcomes like becoming a booming tech hub (13%), finding the long-fabled Oak Island treasure (13%), becoming another “Hollywood North” (9%), and experiencing major population growth and density (7%) are less popular future outcomes.  

The Energy-and-Resource-Superpower-Dream is Widespread

Becoming an energy and resources superpower is the top choice at the big provincial level as well as in most demographic segments (i.e. when we break the responses to the question down by age, gender, and region as well as provincial vote intentions).   

  • Interest in Nova Scotia becoming an energy and resource superpower by 2040 is almost as strong among men (34%) as it is among women (36%).
  • It’s also the top choice for members of every income group (falling between 30% and 37% regardless of household income) and it finishes first or second in every region of the province, with becoming an energy and resource superpower being the top choice among Halifax residents (38%) and mainland Nova Scotians (34%) and a large proportion of Cape Breton residents (30%) also consider it the most desirable option.
  • The energy and natural resources dream is also popular among people of different political persuasions. 41% of current Progressive Conservative supporters and 36% of Liberal supporters choose it from the list of options provided, as do 31% of NDP voters.

This kind of alignment is rare in today’s public opinion environment, making these results really stand out.

“Wait… Didn’t I hear Tim Houston say something about that recently?!”

As regular consumers of Nova Scotia news and politics will know… The top choice in our poll of becoming an energy and resource superpower perfectly matches the stated ambitions of Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston and his PC government.  

In recent months, Premier Houston and his Ministers have been very vocal about the (big) role they want energy and natural resources to play in building Nova Scotia’s economic future – from embracing offshore wind and green hydrogen development to growing critical minerals and sustainable forestry.

In January, Premier Houston wrote an open letter to Nova Scotians (which appeared on the front page of the Halifax Chronicle Herald and other Saltwire publications), making the case of more resource development to strength the province’s economy and protect itself against the many threats of US President Donald Trump.

Last Monday, the Houston government also released a new video advertising Nova Scotia’s energy ambitions after Premier Houston and all of the provincial Premiers and Territorial Leaders met with Prime Minister Carney in Saskatoon. (If you haven’t seen the video yet… In the opening seconds, an extremely enthusiastic looking Premier Houston asks: “What if Nova Scotia could power up to 27% of Canada’s electricity needs?… Stop and think about that. That would make Nova Scotia an energy superpower! Sounds like a stretch, right? Well, it’s not.” Then he proceeds to make the case for the “Wind West” offshore wind energy project.

If 35% of Nova Scotians identified nearly the same goal (i.e. making “Nova Scotia an energy and resource superpower”) as their top 2040 outcome in our recent surveying (end of May 2025), then that means that Premier Houston and his Ministers are well on their way to convincing Nova Scotians that being an energy and natural resource superpower is the big goal that everybody should be working towards. That’s really good news for the Premier and his government as they continue to advance their post-election agenda, giving them the political capital to keep pushing forward.         

But not everyone agrees. Some Nova Scotians are dreaming of other things.

Going back to the research… The second-most popular response to our future-outcome question was transforming the Cabot Trail into a globally renowned cycling and hiking destination (23% overall), and that ambition is stronger in some demographic segments than others.  It is the top pick for 39% of Cape Bretoners and it has stronger appeal among women (26%) than men (20%). It also performs the best among NDP supporters (27%), suggesting that this more tourism- and nature-oriented vision resonates particularly with progressive and regionally grounded segments of the population.

Younger and lower-income Nova Scotians lean slightly more toward tech and tourism-oriented outcomes. A “booming tech hub” drew modest support across all subgroups (13% overall), with some additional lift from younger and more urban respondents, particularly in Halifax.

Meanwhile, more novelty-oriented or entertainment-driven options like “Another Hollywood North” and “Finding the Oak Island treasure” were more niche in their appeal, with around 10% of respondents choosing those options.

Notably, “Major population growth and density” was the least preferred option overall (7%), and it failed to resonate strongly with any subgroup. While population growth is often cited as a key pillar of economic development, the idea of significantly increasing density appears less aspirational for Nova Scotians, even in urban Halifax.

Conclusion

At a time when many provinces are grappling with uncertainty and anxiety about the future, Nova Scotians are mostly on the same page and dreaming big. The desire to become an energy and resource superpower is not just about economics. It reflects a broader hunger for security and prosperity in a world that’s changing fast. It also suggests that narratives about “natural advantages,” energy sovereignty, and economic independence – like the ones the Houston government is making — are resonating in a deep way. That’s a valuable insight for all organizations of all types that trying to cut through the noise of 2025 and connect with the public. At the same time, the interest in eco-tourism, tech, and creative industries – while not dominant – remain important to Nova Scotians, living large in their dreams.  

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 800 adult Nova Scotians over the age of 18 from May 23 to 29, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.46%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Optimism about the Direction of the Country Reaches Three Year High

Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from June 2 to 5, 2025 and interviewed 2,585 Canadian adults.

The survey finds that optimism in the direction of the country has reached a three-year high while positive impressions of Prime Minister Carney and his government continue to rise.

Direction of the Country

When asked whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, 38% of Canadians believe things are going well, while 43% think the country is on the wrong track. This is a 3-point increase in optimism and is almost at a three-year high. At the same time, optimism about the direction of the world remain low.

Federal Government Approval

Approval of Mark Carney’s government has reached a new high with 53% approving and 23% disapproving. This is the best approval rating for the federal government since the COVID-19 pandemic and similar to the post-election approval numbers of the Trudeau government following its first election victory in 2015.

Regionally, 58% approve in BC, 40% in Alberta, 45% in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 56% in Ontario, 52% in Quebec, and 62% in Atlantic Canada.

Of note, 1 in 4 of those who voted Conservative in April’s federal election approve of the federal government’s job performance.

Party Leader Impressions

Much of the goodwill directed towards the federal government continues to be strongly correlated with feelings towards Prime Minister Carney. Today, 51% have a positive impression of Carney compared with 27% who have a negative impression. The net score of +24 is the highest it has been for him.

Carney’s net score is +86 among Liberal voters, +26 among NDP supporters and -39 among Conservative voters. Regionally, Carney’s net score is +36 in BC, -7 in Alberta, +1 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +25 in Ontario, +35 in Quebec and +33 in Atlantic Canada.

Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remain divided. 39% of Canadians have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 44% have a negative impression. This is the second wave in a row of rising negatives for Poilievre. His net score today is -7.

Regionally, Poilievre’s net score is -6 in BC, +25 in Alberta, +13 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -3 in Ontario, -25 in Quebec, and -18 in Atlantic Canada.

Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative. 75% have a negative opinion of him, while 12% view him positively.

Accessible Voter Pools

Turning to each party’s accessible voter pool, 57% of Canadians are open to voting Liberal, 53% Conservative and 35% NDP.

When asked their general desire for change, 41% of Canadians say it’s time for a change in government (unchanged from May) and feel there is a good alternative compared with 34% who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. This is the highest re-elect number for the Liberals since we started tracking this back in summer 2023.

Vote Intention: Liberals lead Conservatives by 3

If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Liberals, 39% for the Conservatives, 8% for the NDP, and 6% for the Bloc Quebecois. All the change from the last survey are within the margin of error.

Regionally, the Liberals are slightly ahead in British Columbia (39% to 38%), ahead by 6 in Ontario, 13 in Quebec, and by 22 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead by 37 in Alberta and are ahead by 23 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Demographically, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied among those under 30, the Conservatives lead by 10 among Millennials (30 to 44), the parties are tied among those aged 45 to 59 while the Liberals have an 18-point lead among those over 60.

Education remains a big predictor of party support. The Conservatives lead among those with high school or college education while the Liberals are well ahead among those with a university degree.

Top Issues

When asked to name the three most important issues facing Canada today, the rising cost of living dominates, cited by 61% of respondents (the same as last month). Donald Trump and his administration is second at 42% (-1) followed by the economy, healthcare, housing, and immigration.

When we ask those who rank an issue in their top 3 which party they feel is best able to deal with the issue, the Conservatives lead by 10 among those who feel the cost of living is a top issue while the Liberals lead by almost 5048among those who put Donald Trump and his administration in their top 3. The Liberals and Conservatives are tied on the economy, housing, while the Liberals lead by 7 on healthcare.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Over a month since the election, Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to earn high marks from Canadians. Our latest survey finds that optimism about the direction of the country has reached its highest level in three years, with 38% now saying things are headed in the right direction—up 3 points from last month. At the same time, approval of the federal government has climbed to 53%, a level not seen since the early days of the Trudeau government. There is no evidence of buyer’s remorse among voters; instead, public confidence in Carney’s leadership is growing steadily.

Carney’s personal brand continues to be a major asset. A majority of Canadians (51%) view him positively, while only 27% hold a negative impression. His +24 net score is the highest we’ve recorded since Trudeau’s in 2015, bolstered by strong impressions in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Even one in four Conservative voters approve of the government’s performance—a sign that the Carney government is making inroads beyond its core base. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s negatives are on the rise again, with his net impression slipping to -7 nationally, and especially poor ratings in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.

Electorally, the Liberals now hold a narrow 3-point lead nationally over the Conservatives, buoyed by strong support from older voters and university-educated Canadians. Their accessible voter pool has grown to 57%—higher than at any point in the past two years—and more Canadians than ever say the Liberals deserve re-election. While affordability remains the top issue, Trump continues to weigh heavily on Canadian minds. That issue continues to favour the Liberals, helping explain why the government’s momentum remains on an upward trajectory. For now, Canadians appear ready to give the Carney government the benefit of the doubt—and a chance to deliver.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,585 Canadians from June 2 to 5, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.92%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Rethinking Housing in Canada: Awareness, Trust, and the Push for Change

Between May 15 and 21, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,273 Canadian adults (18+) to assess awareness, trust, and priorities related to the federal government’s Build Canada plan and the broader state of housing. The results reveal strong demand for more affordable options, flexible financing solutions, and meaningful progress across both market and non-market housing. As affordability pressures intensify, Canadians are looking for leadership that not only understands the crisis but deliver real results. For the Liberals, this presents an opportunity to show progress, rebuild trust, and demonstrate that their plan can deliver tangible results where it matters most.

Low Awareness, Fragile Trust in the Build Canada Plan

The federal government’s Build Canada plan, a national housing agency intended to accelerate home construction, is not registering with most Canadians. Only 40% are aware of the initiative, while nearly half (47%) say they haven’t heard of it at all. This lack of awareness reveals a deeper issue: even major federal efforts on housing are failing to connect with the public, despite widespread concern about the crisis.

Beyond limited awareness, confidence in the government’s ability to deliver is weak. Just 14% of Canadians believe the Liberals will follow through on the plan, while 33% don’t trust it will happen. However, over 2 in 5 (44%) say they somewhat trust the government, suggesting hesitant optimism overshadowed by doubt.

This signals a broader challenge for the Liberals: Canadians are uncertain not just about the solutions, but about the government’s ability to deliver them. Despite proposing a major initiative like Build Canada, low awareness and shaky trust suggest it isn’t yet shifting public perception, many still see the Conservatives as better equipped to handle the housing crisis. As housing remains a top political issue, the Liberals will need to rebuild trust, demonstrate progress, and convince voters their plan can deliver real results.

Are We Building What Canadians Need?

While Canadians agree there’s a housing crisis, there’s less clarity on whether current initiatives are producing the right kinds of homes. Just under six in ten (59%) Canadians believe the types of housing prioritized under the Build Canada plan, such as mid-rise apartments, modular homes, and mixed-income developments on public land, match the type of housing that’s needed today. However, many remain unsure, and some feel the plan misses the mark by overlooking more traditional or family-oriented options.

What’s clear is that Canadians want a broader mix of housing solutions. Non-market options are seen as essential, with one-third (34%) saying the country should prioritize purpose-built affordable or social housing and 23% highlighting the need for co-op or non-profit models. At the same time, many Canadians are still looking for market-based options – 29% want more small, family-oriented homes, while 26% point to modular housing and another 26% prioritize traditional detached single-family homes. The demand reflects a desire for both affordability and choice across the housing spectrum.

Overall, the public appears pragmatic and open to a range of housing types, especially those that balance speed of delivery, long-term stability, and access for those who need it most.

Canadians Prioritize Affordability Above All

Affordability stands out as the defining priority for Canadians when it comes to housing. Nearly half (48%) say the federal government’s top focus should be making housing more affordable for renters, while 43% emphasize the need to build more affordable housing overall. Among renters themselves, concern is even higher, 57% say rental affordability is their number one issue.

While fewer Canadians overall (24%) identify mortgage access as a top priority, that figure climbs to 30% among those planning to buy a home. This signals a significant group who feel locked out of homeownership due to financial and lending barriers.

Whether renting or buying, Canadians are united by one core demand: make housing more affordable. Their specific needs may differ, but the call for action is clear and urgent across the board.

Appetite Grows for Alternative Financing

A growing number of Canadians are not just questioning home prices, they’re questioning the financial system itself. Two-thirds (67%) have a negative view of the current mortgage and financing system – 27% believe it’s outdated and makes homeownership harder than it should be, 21% think it’s fair but needs modernization, and 19% believe it rewards people who have money or family help. Only 13% believe it works for most people. Among young Canadians and prospective buyers, the system is widely seen as one that rewards people who already have money or family support, an inequity that is increasingly hard to ignore.

In this climate, interest in alternative financing models is rising sharply. The most popular solution is rent-to-own with a portion of rent building equity, favored by 37% of Canadians and 48% of renters. Other innovative models gaining traction include 40-year mortgages with capped interest (20%), portable mortgages that move with buyers (17%), and wage-linked mortgages (17%) that rise or fall with income.

Among future homebuyers, enthusiasm for innovation is even stronger. They are more likely to embrace portable mortgages (22%), shared equity partnerships with governments or nonprofits (19%), and wage-based lending (21%). These preferences reveal that for many Canadians, affordability isn’t just about lower prices, it’s about flexibility, security, and fairness in how homes are financed.

The Upshot

These findings present both a warning and a window of opportunity for the federal government. Canadians aren’t just asking for more housing – they’re asking for solutions that reflect the reality of their lives: homes that are affordable, accessible, and tailored to diverse and evolving needs. While the Build Canada plan is ambitious in scope, it has yet to resonate with the public. Awareness remains low, and trust in the government’s ability to deliver is fragile.

And yet, the door isn’t closed. Canadians haven’t lost hope. There is a genuine appetite for bold, flexible, and inclusive approaches – whether through a more diverse housing mix or innovative financing options that make ownership feel within reach. Canadians are pragmatic. They don’t expect perfect answers, but they do expect a government that follows through.

Affordability remains the common thread. Whether renting or trying to buy, Canadians want housing options they can realistically access. But beyond price, the findings point to a deeper shift: traditional mortgage systems are losing public trust. A growing share of Canadians – especially younger and aspiring homeowners – are open to new models like rent-to-own, wage-linked mortgages, and shared equity solutions that offer greater flexibility and fairness.

For the Carney government, this is a defining moment. The housing file carries high expectations – but also an opportunity to reset them. Canadians may be skeptical, but they’re still open. They want to see a government that listens, adapts, and delivers. Delivering meaningful progress – especially on affordability and financing – could not only address the crisis but also rebuild confidence in federal leadership at a time when it’s most needed.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,273 Canadian adults from May 15 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.05%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Canadian PoliticsHousingInsights

Is Alberta Really Leaving Canada? What Canadians and Albertans Think About the Prospect of Alberta Sovereignty

Over the past few months, a growing conversation has emerged in Alberta around the possibility of holding a referendum on whether the province should separate from Canada and become an independent country. The idea of Alberta sovereignty is not new—but recent political rhetoric and policy disputes have brought it back to the surface.

To better understand where things stand, Abacus Data surveyed 2,273 Canadian adults—including a sample of 400 Albertans—in mid-May. While the Alberta sample is relatively small and limits our ability to report reliable regional, demographic, or political subgroup differences within the province, the data still provides an important national and provincial snapshot of how people are thinking about Alberta’s relationship with the rest of Canada.

And more than anything, this research offers a baseline: a way to understand how aware people are of the issue, what they think is likely to happen, and how they might respond to a hypothetical referendum. With attention to this issue potentially increasing, these benchmarks give us a way to measure change over time.

Most Albertans are paying attention

We began by asking Albertans how closely they have been following the news about a possible independence referendum. The results show a high degree of awareness and engagement:

  • 21% say they are following the issue very closely
  • 35% are following it pretty closely
  • 38% have heard about it but aren’t following it closely
  • Only 6% had not heard of it before

This means over half (56%) of Albertans say they are following the story with some level of closeness—indicating that talk of separation is far from fringe. While many may not support the idea, it’s on their radar.

But most don’t think it’s likely Alberta will separate

Despite the growing attention, few Albertans—or Canadians—believe independence is imminent.

When asked how likely they think it is that Alberta will leave Canada and become independent in the next five years:

  • Only 14% of Albertans say it’s either “very likely” or “likely” to happen
  • 63% think it’s unlikely or very unlikely
  • Another 17% say it “could happen,” suggesting some level of uncertainty

These perceptions are consistent with those of Canadians outside Alberta. Nationally, just 13% say Alberta leaving Canada is likely, while 59% think it’s unlikely. That view is fairly stable across provinces—though Albertans themselves are more likely than Ontarians or Quebecers to think the outcome is unlikely to occur.

Still, in every region we polled, a majority believed Alberta separation is unlikely to happen. The perception of the movement remains more hypothetical than real.

Support for separation is low

We also tested support for the proposed referendum question by those organizing the citizen-initiated referendum: Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province of Canada?

  • Only 18% of Albertans said they would vote “yes”
  • 69% said “no”
  • And 13% were undecided

Even if we assume some undecideds might shift, these numbers suggest that support for full separation is relatively marginal at this point. There is not widespread appetite among the public for such a significant constitutional rupture. Among those who would vote UCP today (note this is a smaller sample of 154), 30% would support independence while 54% are opposed. Among NDP supporters, only 4% say they would vote yes.

It’s important to note that these are hypothetical responses. Opinions can shift quickly during a referendum campaign, depending on how the issue is framed and who is advocating for change. But as of now, most Albertans do not appear ready to leave.

Why perceptions matter

When it comes to an issue like Alberta separation, public opinion plays a dual role: it’s both a reflection of the current mood and a driver of political momentum. If more Albertans were to believe separation was possible—and desirable—it could shift the strategic incentives of political leaders.

But right now, the issue appears to be more symbolic than serious. Most Albertans are engaged in the conversation but do not believe separation is likely or advisable.

That gap between attention and action is crucial. In a province where feelings of alienation and frustration with federal policy have long simmered, independence may be a way of expressing grievance more than a genuine call for sovereignty. The polling helps distinguish between the two.

It also helps national policymakers understand how others in Canada perceive the threat. While there is little evidence of panic or urgency outside Alberta, the fact that only 14% of Canadians believe separation is likely suggests the rest of the country still views Alberta as firmly within the federation.

Political context: UCP Support Holding

This snapshot comes at a time of political movement within Alberta.

According to our latest vote intention numbers, if a provincial election were held today:

  • The United Conservative Party (UCP) would receive 58% of the committed vote—all the change within the margin of error.
  • The Alberta NDP is at 32%, down 8 points since June and a full 12 points since the last election suggesting a drop in support that’s outside the margin of error.
  • Other parties now attract 10%, up 7 points over that same time frame

This shift suggests the UCP’s political support has held despite the discussion about sovereignty and independence.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,273 Canadian adults and 400 Alberta adults from May 15 to 21, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random national sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20. For the Alberta sample, it is +/- 5.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s and Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied as Carney government approval reaches multi-year high

Our latest poll tracking opinions about Canadian politics was conducted from May 15 to 21, 2025 and interviewed 2,273 Canadian adults. The survey was conducted entirely after the swearing in of the Liberal government led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Just before King Charles is set to deliver the new government’s Speech from the Throne, a new Abacus Data poll finds the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied despite new high points for the Carney government’s approval rating and personal impressions towards the Prime Minister.

Vote Intention: Liberals and Conservatives are Statistically Tied

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Liberals, 40% for the Conservatives, 8% for the NDP, and 7% for the Bloc Quebecois. Compared to the election results, the Liberals are down 3, the Conservatives down 1 and the NDP is up 2.

Regionally, the Liberals are slightly ahead in British Columbia (41% to 39%), ahead by 6 in Ontario, 7 in Quebec, and by 14 in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives lead by 35 in Alberta and are ahead by 26 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead by 9 among those aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and Conservatives are basically tied among 30 to 44 year olds, the Conservatives lead by 4 among 45 to 59 year olds while the Liberals are ahead by 11 among those aged 60 and over.

There is a slight gender gap. The Liberals lead by 4 among women while the Conservatives are ahead marginally by 2 among men.

Education remains a big predictor of party support. The Conservatives lead among those with high school or college education while the Liberals are well ahead among those with a university degree.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

Direction of the Country

When asked whether they feel the country is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, 35% of Canadians believe things are going well, while 46% think the country is on the wrong track. These are the most positive results on this question since before the pandemic.

Top Issues

When asked to name the three most important issues facing Canada today, the rising cost of living dominates, cited by 61% of respondents. Donald Trump and his administration is second at 43% followed by the economy and housing at 36% respectively and healthcare at 33% rounding out the top 5. 25% cite immigration as a top issue while job security and crime, and climate change are all bunched at 14% to 15%.

When we ask those who rank an issue in their top 3 which party they feel is best able to deal with the issue, the Conservatives lead by 11 among those who feel the cost of living is a top issue while the Liberals lead by almost 50 among those who put Donald Trump and his administration in their top 3. The Conservatives lead among those who rate economy, housing, and immigration in their top issues while the Liberals are ahead among those who select healthcare and climate change as a top issue.

Federal Government Approval

Approval of Mark Carney’s government has reached a new high with 50% approving and 24% disapproving. This is the best approval rating for the federal government since the COVID-19 pandemic and similar to the post-election approval numbers of the Trudeau government following its first election victory in 2015.

Party Leader Impressions

Much of the goodwill directed towards the federal government can be attributed to how Canadians feel about the Prime Minister himself. Almost half of Canadians have a positive view of Mark Carney compared with 29% who have a negative impression. His net score of +20 is high in a relative sense.

Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre remain divided. 40% of Canadians have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 42% have a negative impression. His negatives are down slightly from the highs around 46% we measured during the election campaign.

Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative. 75% have a negative opinion of him, while 13% view him positively.

Accessible Voter Pools

Turning to each party’s accessible voter pool, 55% of Canadians are open to voting Liberal, 51% Conservative and 33% NDP.

When asked their general desire for change, 41% of Canadians say it’s time for a change in government and feel there is a good alternative compared with 30% who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. This is the highest re-elect number for the Liberals since we started tracking this back in summer 2023.

Carney’s Government vs. Trudeau Government

One important predictor of vote choice during the election was the perception of how similar or different Carney’s government is or would be compared with Trudeau’s government.

In this survey we asked respondents, based on what they have seen so far from Mark Carney and his government, whether it is similar or different to Trudeau’s government. Overall, 50% feel it is similar while 36% feel it is different. Among those who currently support the Liberals, 61% think it’s different while 28% think it’s similar. Conservatives feel almost the complete opposite.


We followed up that question by asking whether being different or similar to the Trudeau gov’t was a good or bad thing, among those who say it’s different, most overwhelmingly say it’s a good thing. This reinforces the importance for the new government to not be seen as similar to Trudeau. Carney’s ability to differentiate from Trudeau helped him win the election.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Our latest Abacus Data poll, conducted just ahead of King Charles’s Throne Speech, highlights the early dynamics facing Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. While Carney enjoys a multi-year high in government approval (50%) and strong personal favourability, the Liberals (41%) and Conservatives (40%) remain statistically tied, underscoring that despite the government’s post-election honeymoon, partisan divisions persist.

Carney’s high personal approval (+20 net positive) contrasts sharply with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s persistently polarized impressions (40% positive, 42% negative). The Prime Minister’s popularity appears driven by public perceptions that he is successfully distinguishing his government from Justin Trudeau’s legacy—a factor crucial to his election victory and ongoing support.

However, underlying vulnerabilities remain. Concerns about the cost of living dominate public priorities (61%), with Conservatives holding a significant advantage on this issue. Yet, the Liberals command a commanding lead among Canadians worried about Donald Trump and his administration—an unusual cross-border influence solidifying as a central partisan divide.

Generational and educational divides also remain potent predictors of voter preference, with the Liberals reliant on university-educated and older voters, while younger Canadians (18-29) increasingly lean Conservative.

While Mark Carney’s personal and governmental approval suggests momentum, significant headwinds remain, notably around economic anxieties. Successfully navigating these and continuing to differentiate from the Trudeau government will likely determine whether the Liberals can maintain the public’s confidence and hold the new Liberal coalition together.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,273 Canadian adults from May 15 to 21, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Students Vote Exit Survey: Young people are keen to see the new government address cost of living, concrete policy actions

Abacus Data and CIVIX, a registered charity dedicated to strengthening democracy through civics and citizenship education for school-aged youth, have had a long-standing partnership working together on CIVIX’s cornerstone programs to track, understand, and amplify student civic engagement.

For the 2025 federal election we have partnered with CIVIX to conduct an exit survey with students who participated in the Student Vote Canada program.

Student Vote is an experiential learning program offered during general elections. After learning about democracy and the electoral process, researching the parties and platforms, and discussing the issues with their peers and families, students cast ballots for the official candidates running in their school’s electoral district. Nearly 950,000 elementary, intermediate and high school students participated in Student Vote Canada, coinciding with the 2025 federal election.

This exit survey includes results from 13,942 Canadian students in grades 4 to 12 across all provinces and territories.

You can find a more detailed recap of the Student Vote Canada 2025 results here but a quick summary is below.

In 2025 students across Canada elected a Conservative Party minority government with the Liberal Party as the official opposition. This contrasts with the 2021 results (a Liberal government with an NDP official opposition), and differs from the results of the 2025 general election.

What Shaped the Results?

About half of students decided their vote in the days leading up to (or on the day of) the election.

A quarter made their decision the day they voted (24%) and another quarter just a few days before (23%). Only about 1 in 5 (19%) knew who they were voting for when the election was first announced.

In contrast to students, adults were far more likely to have made up their minds before the election began (47%). This reflects a broader age-related trend among adult voters: 52% of older voters (60+) had decided before the campaign, compared to just 33% of younger voters (those 18 to 29).

Students voted on major issues, policy, and national campaigns, more so than adults did.

Most students (54%) said the main reason for choosing a candidate was voting for the party with the best ideas or promises. Only 14% voted strategically—either to prevent a specific candidate from winning or because they believed their favoured party would not win.

Policy issues were the driving force for votes in the general election as well, particularly for the youngest voting cohort.  Older Canadians were more inclined to cast their vote based on the party leader (39%), compared to 25% of younger Canadian voters, and just 18% of students.

Strategic voting played a greater role among younger voters in the actual election, with 20% identifying it as their main reason for choosing a candidate. In contrast, only 10% of students cited strategic voting as the primary influence. Notably, many students indicated they may have voted differently in the actual election (40%)—9% said they would not have voted the same way and 31% are unsure.

Students are informed, independent voters.  

Nearly half (48%) of students said they voted the same way as at least one parent or caregiver. 19% say they voted differently, 32% are not sure. This suggests that while many students align with their family’s views, a significant portion are forming independent political opinions—even within the same households.

A large majority of students (89%) reported doing some form of research before casting their ballot. The most common sources of information were conversations with others — 46% spoke with friends, 45% with family members, and 44% discussed the election in class.

84% of students also saw a political ad, suggesting that young people, even if not of voting age, are still being reached by political campaigns—intentionally or incidentally. The most common channels were YouTube (49%) and TV (49%).

How do students feel about the results?

Students are moderately happy (like adults) but are unsure whether their concerns will be well represented in Parliament.

37% of students and 32% of adults feel positive about the results of the election. 35% of students and 36% of adults feel neutral and 28% of students and 33% of adults feel negatively.

Students are divided on whether they will be represented by those elected in the general election.

Just over half of students (52%) believe the Prime Minister will represent them and their concerns, while 48% feel another leader would have better reflected their views. Similarly, 52% feel well represented by their elected local candidate, whereas 48% believe a different local candidate would represent them better.

Students in BC, Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba are most concerned about being represented, while those in Ontario and Atlantic Canada feel the candidates who won the General Election will represent them well.  

Students (and young people overall) want to see the new government focusing on cost-of-living concerns. The most important step the federal government can take to support young Canadians (according to students) is addressing cost of living, including housing affordability. And given the chance to share a few words with the new Prime Minister, students choose to share the same message.

The Upshot

While voter turnout among younger generations tends to be lower in general elections, the results of Student Vote show the next generation of voters is highly informed, critical and tuned into conversations about solutions rather than the brand or image of a leader. It is likely this younger cohort will grow up like their younger voting peers (the Gen Zs and Millennials) — looking for solutions to cost-of-living alongside social issues. Like their younger voting peers, student voters are keen to see policies and programs that address the cost of living, despite not yet reaching adulthood.

The findings highlight the importance of civic education and engaging young people in democracy early on. Among students who participated in Student Vote Canada 2025, 91% of students said they feel confident about voting in the future, including 45% who feel very confident.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 13,942 Canadian students in grade 4 to 12 from May 1 to 14, 2025.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 0.83%, 19 times out of 20.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

BlogInsightsMedia

From Scarcity to Precarity: The Credit Union Opportunity

On May 12, I delivered an opening keynote address to the national conference put on by the Canadian Credit Union Association. This is a summary of the presentation.

The Canadian landscape has experienced a profound shift—from a “scarcity” mindset, characterized by immediate fears about day-to-day necessities such as housing, healthcare, and the cost of living, to a deeper “precarity” mindset. Canadians are now increasingly anxious about long-term uncertainty and the stability of foundational systems. This shift is clearly reflected in public opinion data, revealing that 68% of Canadians worry about their ability to afford basic needs in the short-term, while an even greater number (70%) anticipate delaying major life decisions due to financial uncertainty.

The rise of precarity has been amplified by geopolitical instability, notably Donald Trump’s disruptive policies towards Canada, causing 79% of Canadians significant stress about the nation’s future. This environment has catalyzed a resurgence in Canadian nationalism, with many Canadians now consciously choosing local over American products, as evidenced by 44% actively avoiding American-made goods.

Credit unions, known for their community orientation and reliability, are uniquely positioned to thrive in this new context. They naturally align with what precarious consumers increasingly seek: clarity, certainty, community, and control. Fintech competitors may offer convenience and immediacy, but they often lack the deeper emotional connection and trust that credit unions inherently provide. In a precarious world, this emotional bond—built on genuine relationships and localized commitment—will significantly differentiate credit unions from traditional banks and fintech alternatives.

Young Canadians, in particular, represent a significant growth opportunity for credit unions, yet many in this demographic remain unaware of the holistic value credit unions offer beyond basic financial services.

To bridge this gap, credit unions must proactively communicate their community-centered values and tangible support systems designed to address members’ long-term needs and uncertainties.

In this shifting environment, understanding and meeting the unmet needs of current and prospective members is critical. Precarity has not diminished consumer spending entirely; rather, it has reshaped spending behaviours towards cautious yet value-driven choices. A substantial portion of consumers (91%) now approach spending more cautiously due to future uncertainties, while nearly half (47%) restrict their purchases to essential items. Credit unions can capitalize on this behaviour by providing financial products and services tailored to offer enhanced financial stability, community support, and sustainable economic participation.

The moment for credit unions to act is now—this is a unique opportunity to shape new consumer habits and deepen member relationships. It is essential to harness collective action within the credit union sector, reinforcing the strengths of cooperative banking to effectively communicate its advantages in a landscape marked by anxiety and instability. By emphasizing their role in ensuring financial certainty and fostering resilient local economies, credit unions can secure lasting loyalty from members, especially younger demographics, solidifying their position in the financial services landscape.

The question credit unions face today is: “If not now, when?” Understanding and responding to this critical shift in mindset is not just an opportunity—it is a necessity for future relevance and growth.

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