Do Canadians think Trump and Poilievre are similar? And if so, does it matter?

From January 18 to 23, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,199 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

As part of this survey, we asked Canadians several questions to try and understand if they see similiarities between Pierre Poilievre and Donald Trump. Initial reporting of these questions appeared in the Toronto Star on Saturday and comes after the Liberals and Prime MInister Trudeau attempt to tie Mr. Poilievre to Donald Trump.

If they had a vote in the US Presidential Election, how do Canadians think Poilievre and Trudeau would vote?

One way for us to gauge how Canadians perceive the similarities between Canadian political leaders and those in the United States (Trump and Biden) is to ask how Canadians think Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre would vote if they could in the 2024 US Presidential election.

68% of Canadians believe Justin Trudeau would vote for Biden while 13% think he would vote for Trump. 19% are unsure.

In contrast, 48% of Canadians think Poilievre would vote for Trump, 20% think he would vote for Biden, while 32% don’t know how he’d vote – 13-points higher than those unsure how Mr. Trudeau would vote.

At least a plurality of past Liberal, NDP and Conservative voters believe Mr. Poilievre would vote for Donald Trump.

If they had a vote in the US Presidential Election, how do Canadians think Poilievre and Trudeau would vote?

One way for us to gauge how Canadians perceive the similarities between Canadian political leaders and those in the United States (Trump and Biden) is to ask how Canadians think Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre would vote if they could in the 2024 US Presidential election.

If Trump is US President, would it be better for Canada if Poilievre or Trudeau was Prime Minister?

By 15-points, Canadians are more likely to think Pierre Poilievre would be better to deal with Donald Trump as US President than Justin Trudeau. 44% picked Poilievre while 29% picked Trudeau. 28% were unsure.

Among current Conservative voters, 80% think Poilievre would be better, 4% pick Trudeau and 17% are unsure. Among Liberal supporters, 61% pick Trudeau, 1 in 5 pick Poilievre, and 22% are unsure. Among NDP supporters, 46% select Trudeau, 23% Poilievre, and 30% are unsure.

Stand up to Trump or Get Along to Play Along?

We also asked Canadians whether they thought the Canadian Prime Minister should stand up to Trump, even if it hurts Canada’s relationship with the US or should the Prime Minister find common ground where they can, even if it conflicts with Canadians values.

Overall, 2 in 3 want the Prime Minister to stand up to Trump (including 57% of Conservative supporters) while 36% would prefer the PM try to find common ground, even if it goes against Canadian values.

How similar are Poilievre and Trump?

More Canadians think Poilievre and Trump are similar than different, 4 in 10 Canadians believe they are similar, about 1 in 3 think they are different while the remaining 20% are unsure what to think.

When we expore specific attributes or areas, we find Canadians are more likely to think they are similar when it comes to their views on the environment and climate change (49%) and their stance on social issues (46%). 43% think they share similar worldviews and are similar in how they respect democracy. 41% feel they are similar when it comes to their communication and leadership styles.

Among those open to voting Conservative (51% of the electorate), more think Poilievre and Trump are different, except for their views on the environment and climate change. And proportion who think they are different is greatest on how they communicate and their leadership styles.

Among current Conservative supporters, 38% believe Trump and Poilievre are similar in most things, 49% see them as different while 13% are unsure.

Does thinking Poilievre is similar to Trump hurt politically?

There is evidence to suggest that being associated with Trump is correlated with vote intention, although making a causal link is more challenging.

In our survey, those who think Trump and Poilievre are different are more likely to be voting Conservative than those who think they are similar.

For example, among those who think the two are different, the Conservatives lead by 41-points over the Liberals – 57% to 16%, while among those who think they are similar, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied (32% to 30%).

So it is possible that if more Canadians come to associate Mr. Poilievre with Mr. Trump, that could hurt Conservative vote share. It is also worth noting that for some Canadians, associations with Mr. Trump could also be a positive.

It is worth noting in a survey we did earlier in the month, Trump had the lowest rating when compared with Biden, Trudeau and Poilievre, but he was only marginally less liked than Trudeau.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Associating Pierre Poilievre with Donald Trump may be an effective strategy at weakening Mr. Poilievre’s personal image and raising doubts about his suitability to be Prime Minister especially when 3 in 10 Canadians say they want a change in government but don’t feel comfortable with the alternatives to the Liberals.

Right now, about 4 in 10 Canadians think Poilievre is similar to Trump in some ways. Those who do are less likely to say they would vote Conservative. If that number rises, it could hurt the Conservatives but it may also be moot so long as people dislike Mr. Trudeau as much as they do and the desire for change is as strong as it is. We will track these numbers over the next year to see how perceptions evolve.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,199 Canadian adults from January 18 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Liberals think Donald Trump comparisons hurt Pierre Poilievre. Canadians aren’t so sure they’re the same, Abacus Data poll suggests

A new Abacus Data poll suggests that many voters don’t see similarities between the former president and the Conservative leader.

However, a new Abacus Data poll provided exclusively to the Star suggests that Canadians may not be entirely on side with that argument.

When asked how they view Poilievre and Trump on a range of issues, just under half said they think the two are the same, about a third think they are different and the rest simply don’t know.

Uncategorized

Political strategist says Ken McDonald's about-face on Trudeau doesn't undo damage done

According to the latest Abacus data, the Liberals trail the Conservatives by 12 points in Atlantic Canada. Powers said McDonald’s comments will play well in his home province and could help him if he chooses to run provincially.

“Ken really hasn’t damaged his political prospects any,” Powers said. “I’m a bit surprised by the retraction, but I suspect he’s gained enough capital casting himself as a maverick should he choose to run provincially.”

Uncategorized

How Justin Trudeau can still win | Canada's National Observer

The odds of a Justin Trudeau comeback seem to just keep getting longer. With a bunch of new polls leaving his Liberal party’s late-2023 bump looking more and more like a dead-cat bounce, it’s increasingly difficult to see a path that can lead Justin Trudeau to re-election in 2025. If anything, he might be resigned to trying to save the proverbial political furniture.

That won’t be easy. As Abacus Data’s David Coletto concluded in a recent Substack post, “The public mindset has moved from one of optimism in 2018, to fear in 2020, to shortage in 2021 and to scarcity today. And I don’t believe Justin Trudeau is suited to serve that mindset.” Tuesday’s Federal Court decision on his government’s use of the Emergencies Act that found it infringed on certain charter rights won’t help there.

Uncategorized

Beyond Shelter: Unraveling the Multi-Faceted Housing Crisis in Canada 

In partnership with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), we undertook a series of one-on-one interviews with professionals serving vulnerable populations to delve into the repercussions of the housing crisis, particularly on Canada’s homeless community. Between October 30 and December 15, 2023, we engaged in discussions with 15 individuals from the shelter and housing services sector. Our aim was to gain insights into the hurdles and obstacles confronting some of Canada’s most at-risk groups as they seek access to housing. 

This exploration delves into the intricate landscape of the housing crisis and its profound impact on support services. As demand soars and resources strain, providers are forced to adapt, recognizing the pressing need to assist clients within limitations. From burnout in shelters to addressing resource gaps and advocating for homelessness eradication, each perspective unveils a critical facet of the urgent housing crisis. 

Magnification of the Housing Crisis and Its Impact on Support Services 

The widening impact of the housing affordability and accessibility crisis in Canada is fostering heightened collaboration and dialogue within the housing support sector, as the broader community feels its effects. The surge in demand for housing support services and emergency shelters has prompted a more adaptable approach, acknowledging the growing need with available resources. This crisis magnification has placed immense pressure on housing support services, compelling providers to adopt a flexible stance in assisting as many clients as possible despite limited resources. Shelters nationwide recognize the deficiency in resources, highlighting the crucial link between secure and stable housing and the mental health progress of their clients. The overarching narrative is one of a housing crisis reaching unprecedented levels, necessitating a nimble response from support services to address the pressing demand and underscore the pivotal role of stable housing in enhancing well-being. 

Resource Challenges and Worker Burnout in Shelters 

Shelter workers grapple with a critical challenge — an acute shortage of resources and budget constraints. The struggle includes insufficient space, beds, staff, and financial means to address the growing demand for services. Some shelters, acting as landlords, operate at a loss, posing sustainability challenges in providing effective housing services. 

Limited financial resources exacerbate the struggle to retain staff, with demanding workloads and often inadequate salaries contributing to high turnover. The thankless nature of the job, with frustrated clients directing their grievances at frontline staff, compounds the challenge. 

Staff shortages and budget constraints force housing support workers to handle caseloads far beyond the norm, sometimes up to ten times their expected capacity, leading to widespread burnout in the sector. Amidst burnout, workers also grapple with compassion fatigue, navigating the difficult task of prioritizing services and making tough decisions due to limited resources. The inevitable outcome is triaging clients based on the severity of their situations, despite the initial instinct to provide equal support to all. 

Addressing Resource Gaps in Housing Support: A Call for Collaboration 

Tackling the resource gaps in housing support demands urgent attention as a long-term solution to the current crisis and the challenges faced by support workers. Many shelters lack the necessary resources to efficiently assist those in need, and obtaining government support and funding remains a significant hurdle despite housing support workers’ eagerness for improvements. 

Advocates stress the need for increased social services and benefits that better align with the current housing market and goals. The pandemic’s impact on mental health necessitates additional support to prevent it from becoming a barrier to sustaining housing. 

Recognizing the importance of improving the supply of affordable rental units, efforts should focus not only on constructing additional units but also addressing the issue of units remaining unfilled.  

Ultimately, effective implementation requires a holistic and collaborative approach to end homelessness. This involves aligning goals with other housing support providers, addressing various social determinants such as mental health, addictions, and violence, and working collectively towards sustainable solutions. 

Challenges in Advocating for Homelessness Eradication 

Acknowledging the pivotal role of policy and advocacy in ending homelessness in Canada, housing support workers recognize the inherent challenges in leading such initiatives. The fragmented nature of support providers adds complexity to the task of unifying the group and advocating for cohesive priorities. Federalism, multi-jurisdictional barriers, and incoherent and inconsistent policy frameworks make progress more challenging. 

Many advocate for the establishment of a basic income program and the imposition of rental rate limits to address challenges faced by individuals at risk of homelessness. In a survey that we conducted for CREA in September 2023, we found that close to 1.8 million Canadian adults who are currently housed worry about becoming homeless in the next year. This mindset is reflected in the views and stories shared by those on the front line. 

A significant concern raised involves the inaccessibility of funding initiatives from provincial and federal governments for front-line organizations. Despite these initiatives directly supporting those experiencing homelessness, organizations find the funds inaccessible. The added challenge of spending on consultants for unsuccessful applications further hampers the ability of organizations, well aware of problems and potential solutions, to effectively serve their clients. 

The Upshot 

As the housing crisis continues to impact people across the country, the imperative for collaboration and dialogue within the housing support sector becomes increasingly evident. The surge in demand for housing support services has created the need to embrace a flexible approach, adapting to the growing need with available resources. However, the crisis places immense pressure on housing support services, with shelters recognizing the deficiency in resources and emphasizing the critical link between secure housing and mental health progress. 

Resource challenges and worker burnout in shelters present a critical issue, as insufficient space, staff, and budget constraints strain the ability to meet the growing demand for services and to truly help those in need. Addressing resource gaps becomes paramount, emphasizing the need for government support and increased social services to align with housing market goals. 

Efforts to improve the supply of affordable rental units are crucial, requiring a holistic and collaborative approach to end homelessness. Advocacy for policy changes, including standardized basic income and rent control, is essential, yet the fragmented nature of support providers poses challenges. 

Overall, the outcomes of this qualitative research illuminate an intricate and pressing scenario that demands immediate attention and concerted efforts. The housing crisis has escalated to unprecedented levels, necessitating a prompt response to address the urgent demand and emphasize the crucial role of stable housing in improving the overall well-being and quality of life for Canadians. The necessity for resources, collaboration, and advocacy is evident, and the outlook depends on a united commitment to formulating sustainable solutions for individuals facing the challenges of homelessness in Canada. The path forward relies on our collective dedication to providing stable housing for those contending with homelessness challenges in Canada. Together, we can make a enduring impact and shape a future where housing stability becomes a reality for everyone. Take action now for a better tomorrow. 

Methodology 

Engaging in one-on-one in-depth interviews, we gathered insights from 15 professionals dedicated to serving vulnerable populations throughout Canada. It’s essential to note that this study is qualitative in nature, making it impractical to calculate a margin of error. Furthermore, it’s important to recognize that the outcomes may not accurately represent the perspectives of all Canadians, as the findings stem from a specific subsample of individuals. This select group offers valuable insights, but it’s crucial to interpret the results within the context of this qualitative approach, acknowledging its inherent limitations in providing a comprehensive overview of the diverse viewpoints across the entire Canadian population. 

This research was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

 

About Abacus Data 

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever. 

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value. 

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019. 

Contact us with any questions 

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.  

BlogCanadian PoliticsHousingInsights

Toronto’s Safety Crossroads: Unveiling Concerns, Policing Priorities, and the Push for Adequate Funding

Between January 4 and 9, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey involving 1,500 Torontonians (18+) to gauge their perspectives specific challenges facing Toronto, as well as their perceptions of the importance of police officers in the city and their perception of the city budget. This survey was commissioned by the Toronto Police Association (TPA).

As safety and security concerns intensify in the city, the findings underscore residents’ desire for increased police visibility in their communities, including on TTC. Recognizing the significance of a well-equipped police force, there is minimal support for budget cuts, with widespread backing for increasing the resources available to the police.

Heightened Concerns Regarding Public Safety

Torontonians identify key issues in the city today: housing accessibility (52%), local economy and affordability (41%), homelessness (40%), and crime/public safety (34%). A closer look at crime and safety concerns reveals heightened worry, with a majority expressing fears about gun and gang violence (61%), TTC safety (58%), hate crimes (55%), and auto theft (55%). Examining changes over the past few years, residents believe issues like auto theft (67%), TTC safety (60%), hate crimes (60%), and gun and gang violence (56%) have worsened. These perceptions highlight a collective sense of worsening conditions, emphasizing the need for additional efforts and resources to address and rectify these trends.

Pervasive Belief in the Importance of Policing

As concerns about crime escalation persist within the city, 60% of residents emphasize the crucial role of policing in overall well-being and quality of life in the city. Furthermore, 67% assert that bolstering front-line officers is essential for improving city safety, highlighting the perceived correlation between effective policing and community welfare.

When considering specific actions, collaborative efforts with other agencies (51%), heightened police visibility (50%), and specialized training for community engagement (46%) receive residents’ endorsement. Additionally, 58% express support for an increased police presence in their neighborhoods, indicating confidence in both front-line officers and community-based strategies for heightened safety and security.

Perceptions of Safety on the TTC

In addition to the desire for increased police presence in neighborhoods, a significant portion of Torontonians (66%) are convinced that an increased police presence would contribute to an enhanced sense of safety and security on the TTC. Residents’ demand for tangible safety measures is evident, with backing for enhancements such as fortifying surveillance cameras (63%), increasing police presence (60%), and expediting response times (51%).

Budget and Funding Perspectives

A notable majority of Toronto residents, comprising 71%, emphasize the importance of maintaining a well-funded and adequately resourced police service. Within this viewpoint, 43% of residents assert that the Toronto Police Service currently lacks sufficient resources, compared to the 33% who believe it is adequately resourced.

Moreover, 42% of residents support a rise in the police budget, with 34% proposing it stays the same. Additionally, 59% of Torontonians express that a decrease in the police budget would result in the city feeling less secure. These results emphasize diverse viewpoints on police resources, emphasizing the importance of budget modifications to ensure funding plays a pivotal role in maintaining a proactive and efficient police force to address community safety requirements.

The Upshot

In the face of mounting concerns over pressing issues in Toronto, especially the perceived decline in crime and safety, there is a pressing demand for thorough and effective solutions. As worries about crime escalate, a widespread acknowledgment of the essential role of policing emerges. The majority of Torontonians recognize the crucial contribution of law enforcement to the overall well-being of the city, advocating for an increased presence of front-line officers to bolster urban safety. Furthermore, the desire for heightened police visibility extends not only to neighborhoods but also to the TTC.

Against this backdrop, the perspective on police funding emerges as a critical aspect in navigating the multifaceted challenges facing Toronto. A large majority highlights the importance of maintaining a well-funded and adequately resourced police service. This sentiment is complemented by an acknowledgment that a significant portion believes the Toronto Police Service currently lacks sufficient resources.

In navigating the nuanced landscape of diverse opinions on police resources and funding, it becomes evident that addressing the perceived deterioration of safety necessitates not only community-centric strategies but also a strong commitment to advocating for an adequately funded and responsive police force. These findings collectively underscore the crucial role of funding in ensuring the safety and well-being of the community, emphasizing the imperative to address the challenges posed by the perceived worsening of crime and safety in Toronto.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Torontonian adults from January 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by the Toronto Police Association (TPA).

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian PoliticsInsights

Breaking Boundaries: The PWHL’s Journey to Recognition and Impact 

Between January 4 and 9, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey involving 1,500 Canadians (18+) to gauge their perceptions of the recently established Professional Women’s Hockey League (PWHL). The survey delved into public opinions regarding the league’s significance, its anticipated impact on young Canadians, and potential challenges it might face. 

Revealing a notable lack of awareness, the findings also acknowledge the PWHL’s influence on women’s sports. The results address strategic opportunities to amplify the league’s impact and examine the challenges that shape the PWHL’s pivotal role in the Canadian women’s hockey landscape. 

Limited Awareness of PWHL in Canada 

As the inaugural season of the PWHL is in full swing, the findings from the current study reveal a significant lack of awareness about the league among Canadians. A significant 45% of respondents expressed minimal familiarity with the league, and surprisingly, 20% admitted to being completely unaware of its existence. These statistics collectively underscore that almost two-thirds of the Canadian population possess little to no knowledge about the PWHL. Although one might anticipate limited awareness given the approximately 4-month period between the league’s official announcement and its inaugural game, this outcome emphasizes the necessity for heightened efforts to improve awareness and visibility of the PWHL across Canada. 

Shaping Optimism for the Future of the PWHL 

Despite limited visibility, the PWHL gains substantial recognition for its significance in women’s sports, particularly shaping the experiences of young women nationwide. The study reveals a positive perception, with 42% of Canadians emphasizing the importance of the PWHL, in stark contrast to the 25% who consider it unimportant.  

Moreover, optimism prevails regarding the PWHL’s future success. Notably, 38% of Canadians express positivity, a sentiment that significantly rises to 70% among those who are aware of the PWHL. This highlights the necessity of strategic initiatives focused on awareness and understanding to continually foster an optimistic outlook on the league’s future success. 

Seizing Opportunities for Women’s Hockey: Growth and Impact 

Despite the lack of awareness, Canadians largely understand the opportunities that the league can leverage to enhance its impact on women’s hockey in Canada. A noteworthy 35% of Canadians see the PWHL inspiring a new generation of female athletes, while 30% recognize its role in creating opportunities for young players, and 24% believe it can enhance the visibility and popularity of women’s hockey. These findings emphasize the league’s pivotal position in fostering talent, inspiring athletes, and elevating the overall appeal of women’s hockey. 

The findings further emphasize the league’s capacity to defy gender norms and advance gender equality in sports, as indicated by 21% of respondents. Additionally, 19% of participants recognize the league’s potential to promote equality and inclusivity in the sports community. This underscores the league’s positive role in breaking down barriers, promoting inclusiveness, and advocating for equal opportunities for female athletes. 

Navigating Challenges and Barriers to PWHL’s  

When considering the potential barriers/challenges facing the PWHL, 38% of respondents express concerns about substantial financial disparities compared to men’s hockey. Additionally, 28% note the risk of insufficient partnerships and sponsors, posing a potential threat to the league’s financial stability. These perceived challenges may hinder investments in player development, marketing, and infrastructure, impacting the league’s overall influence. 

Apart from financial challenges, 36% of Canadians express concerns about the league’s limited visibility and media coverage, highlighting the necessity for improved promotional efforts. Additionally, 25% point out a deficiency in the league’s presence in markets across the country. Addressing these challenges is important for expanding the league’s reach, fostering a broader appeal, and ensuring sustained growth and impact on women’s hockey in Canada. 

THE UPSHOT

In its growing stages, the PWHL stands at a critical juncture, navigating the balance between promising opportunities and visible challenges. Recognizing the pivotal role of strategic initiatives in enhancing awareness and understanding, the PWHL has the potential to inspire a new era of female athletes, providing unprecedented opportunities for player growth, and elevating the profile of women’s hockey. Despite the hurdles that accompany any new venture, the league emerges as a dynamic force for positive change, poised to overcome challenges and redefine the landscape of women’s sports. 

Crucial for ensuring continuous growth and influence, the league must actively forge strategic partnerships, broadening its media presence, and venturing into new markets. Effectively navigating these challenges and capitalizing on the positive sentiments expressed by Canadians are important steps in shaping a promising future for the PWHL, and women’s hockey.  

The league’s unwavering commitment to overcoming obstacles will become instrumental in solidifying its lasting imprint on the narrative of women’s hockey in Canada. 

METHODOLOGY 

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.  

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.  

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.  

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. 

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/  

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian PoliticsDiversity, Equity & InclusionInsightsMediaWomen

Conservatives lead by 17 over Liberals in latest Abacus Data poll.

From January 4 to 9, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Conservatives gain 4 points since mid-December and now lead by 17 over the Liberals.

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 33% in Quebec.

Since our last survey, the Conservatives are up 4 while the Liberals are down 3. This is a statistically significant shift in vote intentions since mid-December.

Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 17 in BC, and 12 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 12-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 6 over the Liberals with the Conservatives at 22%.

If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives up 2, the Liberals down 2 from our last survey in December across these three regions/provinces.

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Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP.

We find almost little difference in vote intention between men and women except for NDP support which is higher among women and Conservative support which is higher among men.

When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 54% say they are open to voting Conservative (up 4 since December 12) while 41% are open to voting Liberal (-2) and 41% for the NDP. Note, this is the smallest accessible voter pool for the Liberals that we have measured since 2015.

For the first time since the last election, we are also reporting voter motivation – a key indicator on possible voter turnout differentials by party.

We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. The 6-point difference between Conservative and Liberal enthusiasm is significant and something we will continue to watch and track.

What explains the change in vote intention?

Over the last month, attitudes and opinions about the Prime Minister, the Liberal government, and the general direction of the country have all deterioriated.

For example, those who think the country is headed in the right direction is down 3 points since December and close to the lowest point we have ever measured.

The federal government’s approval rating is down with those disapproving up 2 points to 58%, tied for the highest we have ever measured it since the Liberals were elected in 2015.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau have also become more negative since our last survey in December. Today only 25% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister while 59% have a negative impression. His net favourability score of -34 is the worst we’ve ever measured.

In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre have returned to levels we measured in November – after what we showed in our polling was a difficult early December of the Conservative Leader. Today, Poilievre’s net favourability score is +6, almost as good as it has ever been.

But perhaps most telling is the widespread desire for change that continues to exist across the country. Today, 53% feel it’s time for a change and there’s a good alternative available. 60% of these people who are decided say they will vote Conservative. Another 31% say they want change but they aren’t entirely convinced there’s an acceptable alternative. Among this group, 1 in 3 say they will vote Liberal (which is down 6 points since December).

Only 16% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. That number has been flat and unchanged since September and is down 5 points from the first time we asked it at the end of June – the last poll before we saw a big shift in voter intentions towards the Conservatives.

And this desire for change is widespread. Here are the percentage of those who think it’s time for a change and believe there’s an acceptable alternative:

  • British Columbians – 62%
  • Albertans – 63%
  • Ontarians – 55%
  • Atlantic Canadians – 47%
  • Quebecers – 33%
  • Those who voted Liberal in 2021 – 23%
  • Those who voted Conservative in 2021 – 82%
  • Millennials – 54%
  • Gen Z – 50%
  • Seniors (60+) – 52%
  • Those living in the GTHA/Metro Toronto – 52%
  • Those living in Metro Vancouver – 60%

Although some of the underlying metrics have become more negative for the Liberals and positive for the Conservatives, the top issues remain unchanged.

As 2024 begins – the cost of living and housing – remain front and centre and the focus of people’s attention.

We are watching healthcare as an issue – especially as emergency rooms across the country continue to struggle with capacity issues. We are also watching immigration as a top issue – which has risen 4 points over the past 4 months.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “A desire for change is the overriding mindset of Canadians right now. Our first poll of 2024 finds one of, if not the worst, opinion environments the Liberal government has found itself in. The cost of living is still the central focus for people. The Prime Minister’s personal numbers are as negative as they have ever been, and the desire for change has never been as high. The result is a big Conservative lead nationally.

If the Liberals hoped that Canadians would be talking positively about the government and reflecting on the suitability of the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre over the holidays, that doesn’t seem to have happened. Instead, Canadians start 2024 more determined to see a change in government than when 2023 ended.”

Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from January 4 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

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Canadian Politics