Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 13 over Crombie Liberals

From May 10 to 15, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we continue to explore impressions of party leaders and perceptions about Doug Ford’s government along with our usual trackers.

Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs continue to lead over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals, by 13 percentage points (2 points down from our last survey).

If an election were held today, 39% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP closely behind at 22%, and the Greens at 9%.  

These results are consistent with our survey last month and changes are within the margin of error of the survey. But we do see an increase in those who are undecided. 28% of respondents are undecided, up 7 points from last month.

Our data also reflect federal vote intentions in Ontario. For the Ontario PC and Liberals, support for the federal Conservatives and Liberals is slightly higher than their own. In contrast, the Ontario NDP and Greens poll slightly higher than their federal counterparts.

Regionally, the Ontario PCs are also ahead across the province. They lead by 12 points in Toronto, 20 in the GTHA, 13 in southwestern Ontario, and 14 in eastern Ontario.

Interestingly, the rise in support for PCs in eastern Ontario last month seems to have been short-lived. Support for the PCs in the region went down 10 points since last April, while the Ontario Liberals gained ground (rising by 8 points).

The Ontario PCs also lead in almost all demographic groups. They are well ahead among men (at 46%) and among those 30 to 44 and 60 and over. Among women, however, the PCs and Liberals are in a tight race, with Liberals leading over the PCs by 1 point. Last April, PCs were 7 points ahead the Liberals in this demographic.

The slight drop in support for the Ontario PCs is also reflected in party leader impressions. 31% have a positive view of Premier Ford, with a net score of -8. This represents a 1-point drop since last month.

In contrast, impressions of Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner have improved. NDP leader Marit Stiles has a net score of +6 (up 5 points from last month) and Green Party leader Mike Schreiner has a net score of +5 (up 8 points). Ontario Liberal Party leader, Bonnie Crombie, enjoys about equal positive and negative views.

When asked specifically about Ford’s government, approval of the government’s performance is largely unchanged, while 39% disapprove. Overall, this still represents a small improvement for the Ford government.

The Upshot

Since our last survey, little has changed across the province, as the Ontario PCs lead over the Liberals and the NDP, and Premier Ford remains relatively popular. In fact, disapproval for the Ford government went down 4 points since last month, to the lowest point since June 2023.

The small surge in support for the PCs in eastern Ontario, which may have reflected the announcement of a deal with the City of Ottawa, did not last. The PCs saw a 10-point drop, benefitting the Liberals, whose support improved by 8 points. Time will tell if the Liberals can hold on to this change, as well as among women, where the PCs also lost ground to the Liberals.

For Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles and Ontario Green leader Mike Schreiner, while perceptions have improved, these did not have an effect on vote intentions.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters living in British Columbia from May 6 to 8, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched BC’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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