Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ontario PCs lead by 16 as the public describes Premier Ford as friendly, but dishonest.
From August 14 to August 17, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,028 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we also explore how people feel about Premier Doug Ford, digging deep into how they describe him and assess his impact on the province.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 16 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 21%, and the Greens at 8%.
These results are consistent with our last month survey and are all within the margin of error of the survey.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 14 points in the GTHA and by 19 in southwestern Ontario. Compared to our last survey, however, there are some important changes.
In Toronto, for example, the Ontario PCs’ lead shrank by 8 points (37% vs 45% in our previous survey), as support for the Ontario NDPs is up 6 points.
The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.
They are well ahead among men (21-point lead) and among those 45 to 59 (16-point lead) and 60 and over (14-point lead). Among women, the PCs lead by 9-points.
Doug Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady, if slightly better than last month.
36% have a positive view of Premier Ford, while negative views are unchanged at 43%, for a net score of -7. This represents a 2-point improvement from last month.
Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -4 (a 2-point improvement) and NDP leader Marit Stiles has an even net score (up 1 point). For Green Party leader Mike Schreiner, 20% have a positive impression compared with 21% with a negative view.
Describing Premier Ford: Friendly, Down to Earth, and Willing to Admit Mistake But Also Dishonest and Reckless with Taxpayers’ Money.
In this survey, we also asked some questions about how people would describe Premier Ford and how they feel about his impact on the province.
Ontarians were shown two descriptors and asked which, if either, best described the Premier.
Positive aspects of Premier Ford’s image centre around his personality and his ability to get things done and willingness to admit mistakes.
44% of Ontarians would describe as “friendly,” rather than “mean” while 39% describe him as “gets things done” rather than “fails to deliver”. A large proportion of Ontarians also describe him as “down to earth”, “normal” rather than “weird” and “admits mistakes and corrects them” rather than “refuses to admit mistakes”.
His vulnerabilities and weaknesses though are tied to perceptions that he is dishonest, corrupt, and reckless with taxpayers’ money.
Views of Premier Ford, of course, are strongly related with party affiliation. PC Party supporters almost universally believe Ford gets things done, is friendly, is down to earth, and admits mistakes and corrects them. But even among PC supporters, there is some evidence of weakness over honest, ethics, and managing taxpayers’ money. While few PC Party supporters are willing to describe Mr. Ford in negative terms, many are not willing to use the positive attributes, instead opting for the “neither” option.
Among NDP and Ontario Liberal supporters, perceptions are the opposite. Two in three believe Premier Ford is “corrupt” and “dishonest,” while 64% would describe him as “reckless with taxpayers’ money.”
1 in 4 of those who support the NDP or Liberal Party do believe, however, that Mr. Ford is friendly rather than mean.
Impressions of Premier Ford are also influenced by his perceived impact on Ontario. We asked whether Premier Ford had made Ontario better or worse in certain areas. Among all Ontarians, Ford gets the best assessment for his handling of transportation infrastructure like roads and transit and for managing the economy. His most negative assessment comes in his perceived handling of the healthcare system.
As was the case with his personal brand, Premier’s Ford policy impact is also closely related to party support. PC supporters, not surprisingly, are far more likely to believe Mr. Ford has had a positive impact on all the areas we test than a negative impact, but on two areas, around 1 in 5 PC supporters give the Premier more negative assessments: healthcare and taxes.
Controversies that Stick and Don’t Stick to Ford
In this survey, we also asked Ontarians how familiar they are with four controversies tied to Premier Ford and whether they had any impact on support for the Premier or the PC Party.
The results suggest that the Greenbelt scandal was by far both the most salient and most impactful controversy that Premier Ford has faced. 82% of Ontarians are aware of that issue with 50% saying they are familiar with it. When asked whether it made them more or less likely to support the PC Party, 58% said less likely compared to 12% who said more likely.
In contrast, 75% of Ontarians are aware of the provincial government’s initial use of the Notwithstanding Clause to force education workers back to work (35% are familiar with it) while 63% are aware of the provincial government’s introduction of strong mayors powers. In both cases, those controversies caused some to say they are less likely vote PC, but few among past PC Party supporters.
Finally, the Queens Counsel appointment controversy has the least impact and recognition. Only 44% had some awareness of it with 16% saying they are familiar with it. That being said, more said they are less likely to vote PC when they learn about this controversy.
When we look specifically at PC Party supporters, the only controversy that likely had any impact was the Greenbelt scandal as 1 in 5 of them said it made them less likely to support Premier Ford and the PC Party.
The Upshot
Our data show that Premier Ford and the Ontario PCs continue to lead comfortably across Ontario and across all demographic groups. His personal numbers are also holding steady.
The questions in this edition, however, also reflect that while Ford is generally well liked among PC supports, he remains a polarizing leader. His personal appeal is built around his approachable and friendly demeanour and as someone not afraid to admit when he makes mistakes. Yet, he is also perceived by a majority of Ontarians as someone who is dishonest and not a great steward of taxpayers’ money. Those are his vulnerabilities. So far, they haven’t overcome his strengths which is why he and the PCs remain in a dominant position against the opposition parties.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,028 eligible voters in Ontario from August 14 to 17, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.057%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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