What happened in Ontario and what does it mean for federal politics?
Yesterday’s vote in Ontario delivered Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives a historic third-straight majority victory—something not seen in the province since 1959. It was a campaign that, despite a growing desire for change and weeks of speculation about just how potent anger at incumbents would be, ultimately stayed true to the polling narrative that Ford was on track for an impressive win. From where I sit, several factors shaped these results, and they help explain why Ontario followed Nova Scotia’s Tim Houston in bucking the broader anti-incumbent trend we’ve witnessed elsewhere.
Cost of Living, Trump, and the Economy at the Centre
First and foremost, voters’ concerns about day-to-day economic issues—rising prices, job security, and anxiety around the cost of living—continued to dominate throughout the campaign. Our final poll of the election showed that 59 percent of Ontarians listed the cost of living as one of the top three issues they wanted to see debated, with 33 percent saying it was the primary driver of their vote. Ford and the PCs were consistently perceived as strongest on this question, maintaining a double-digit lead over the Liberals among cost-of-living voters. The fact that cost of living remained the central theme of the race is critical: it’s the issue that Ford “owns” in many people’s minds.
Overlaying that pocketbook anxiety was the spectre of U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance and, more concretely, the looming threat of tariffs on Ontario industries. Ford used the fear and uncertainty around Trump’s policies to frame himself as the steady hand Ontarians needed. He campaigned heavily on a “Canada is not for sale” message, positioning himself as the only leader with the mettle to navigate chaos south of the border. Whether you see this as cynical or pragmatic, it resonated with working-class voters and those employed in manufacturing or trade-dependent sectors. Ultimately, it solidified the PC advantage in regions such as the GTHA and southwestern Ontario.
Healthcare’s Salience Rose—But Not Enough
One of the more interesting developments was healthcare’s gradual rise in importance as a ballot-box issue. Our polling detected a real uptick: by the end of the campaign, 40 percent of voters put healthcare in their top three issues, making it the second-most salient concern after cost of living. The Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, successfully made inroads among voters who said that healthcare would be their primary determinant. In fact, the Liberals had a 21-point advantage over the PCs among voters who prioritized healthcare above all else.
Yet for Crombie and her team, that upswing in healthcare salience didn’t broaden into a campaign-defining wave. In essence, cost of living and responding to Trump overshadowed the healthcare push. Even if Crombie had some success in persuading voters that the Liberals were better stewards of the healthcare system, it wasn’t sufficient to dislodge a government widely seen as relatively competent on economic matters. And in the end, the NDP were able to hold several key ridings in southwestern Ontario and the north, limiting Liberal hopes of a dramatic seat swing.
A Rare Positive Favourability for All Leaders
An unusual feature of this campaign was that all four party leaders ended with net-positive favourability. Doug Ford hovered around +3, Bonnie Crombie at +2, Marit Stiles of the NDP at +9, and Mike Schreiner of the Greens also finished in positive territory. Ford’s numbers have remained remarkably stable, considering that most incumbents see their negatives grow over time. Meanwhile, the opposition leaders made strides in introducing themselves positively to voters, but that across-the-board favourability prevented any one rival from surging ahead on sheer likability or novelty.
At the same time, that overall “everyone looks decent” dynamic meant individual issues and leadership on the economy weighed more heavily on voting decisions. If you like Marit Stiles personally but don’t think her party is strong on cost of living, it becomes easier for you to vote PC. And if you see the Liberals as competent on healthcare but not on taxes or trade, you may still lean PC.
Why Ford and the PCs Won
If we step back, the PCs’ win boiled down to three key forces:
1. Economic Anxiety: Ford kept the focus on jobs, affordability, and tax threats. He positioned himself as the champion of Ontario’s working class in the face of global headwinds
2. Trump’s Tariffs: This unique angle gave Ford a chance to appear statesmanlike, travelling to Washington mid-campaign and touting his “Canada is Not for Sale” credentials. That overshadowed attacks on his record
3. Stable Approval and Desire for Change Not High Enough: While the desire for a new government did climb to 57 percent in our final poll, it never reached the “danger zone” that fatally undermines an incumbent. Crucially, the support for opposition parties splintered between Liberals, NDP, and Greens, helping Ford retain a comfortable lead.
Challenges Facing the Opposition
Crombie’s Liberals did recapture official party status. They increased their overall vote share to around 30 percent—no small feat for a party that’s been on the ropes since 2018. But Crombie lost her own seat, and the Liberals remain shut out across large swaths of the province. Their core challenge remains that focusing on healthcare alone isn’t enough in an environment dominated by inflation, job growth, and an unpredictable U.S. administration.
The NDP, meanwhile, held onto Official Opposition status. Stiles fended off some key PC challenges, but her party lost seats and is now contending with an emboldened Liberal presence. The NDP still have a strong base in particular regions but are finding it tougher to grow beyond those areas when voters’ primary concerns are pocketbook issues rather than social programs.
Looking Ahead: Federal Implications
Anytime Canada’s most populous province goes to the polls, eyes turn to Ottawa. Ford’s resounding win suggests that Canadians, or at least Ontarians, still reward leaders who project competence on bread-and-butter economic files. For federal parties, the lesson may be that an incumbent (Mark Carney?) perceived as reasonably adept at managing economic anxieties can hold off even a rising desire for change.
If cost of living continues to dominate headlines, incumbents—provincial or federal—who offer reassurance on inflation and job security will likely remain competitive, even if there’s general restlessness for something different.
Ontario’s 2025 election ultimately ended as it began: with Ford and the PCs touting their capacity to shield (or protect) the province from Trump’s tariffs, respond to affordability concerns, and steer the economy. The Liberals and NDP did raise pressing issues around healthcare and public services, but it wasn’t enough to break the PCs’ hold on the “living costs plus economy” narrative.
The result, then, is a seldom-seen third majority that reaffirms Ontario’s comfort with Ford’s vision and sends a clear signal about voters’ priorities in uncertain times.
Our Accuracy and Depth Stands Out
Yesterday’s Ontario election was also a testament to the accuracy and reliability of polling in Canada, and I’m proud of how close Abacus Data’s final estimates came to the actual popular vote. Working in partnership with the Toronto Star, our polling suggested the Progressive Conservatives would secure a strong lead, with the Liberals and NDP trailing behind. While horse race numbers grab attention, the deeper questions we ask about motivations and concerns reveal the ‘why’ behind the results.
That’s where Abacus Data stands out.
Our ability to quickly field surveys, dive deep into voter and consumer sentiments, and then tell a compelling story with the data is what differentiates us in a crowded field. In a fast-paced political and consumer climate, we combine speed and depth with a storytelling approach that turns numbers into meaningful insights. This election was no exception, as we accurately identified the major trends in public opinion, while also offering a nuanced view of what might come next.
I’m also thrilled to recognize the hard work and dedication of our team of 18 professionals, spread from Halifax to Ottawa, Toronto, London, and Edmonton. Their commitment to rigorous methodology, thoughtful analysis, and a collaborative spirit makes it possible for us to deliver timely results that people trust.
I can’t express how fortunate I feel to work with such talent every day.
Looking ahead, we plan to apply the same methods on an even bigger scale for the upcoming federal election.
We’ll be launching a special subscription service—available exclusively to our clients—designed to keep them informed with real-time polling data and expert analysis.
Pollsters across Canada performed exceptionally well this Ontario election, and our industry remains among the best in the world at anticipating public behaviour and understanding the reasons behind it.
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