Tomorrow is Election Day in Canada. Months ago, the outcome looked fairly certain – a Conservative victory. But today, as we release our final poll of the campaign, it looks like the Liberals are now the favourites to pull off a fourth straight victory under the leadership of Mark Carney.

After 40 turbulent days, Canada’s 45th general election comes down to one simple question: will voters choose the reassurance of Mark Carney’s steady-as-she-goes Liberal reset, or the Pierre Poilievre promises after a decade of Liberal rule? What began in January as a lock for the Conservatives was upended by Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Carney’s lightning-fast coronation, and Donald Trump’s return to the White House with threats of annexation and trade war. Suddenly “change vs. continuity” became “stability vs. disruption,” and the ballot box psychology flipped from scarcity-driven anger to precarity-tinged caution.

Since February our team has interviewed more than 15,000 Canadians, probing not just vote intent but the emotions beneath it. We built a Precarity Index, ran nightly regressions, flash-polled the debates, and mapped how trust, competence, and fear intersect. Each wave has pointed to the same tension: a majority still longs for change, yet a plurality doubts that the riskier option will deliver it.

Today we release our final poll—2,500 interviews conducted April 24-27, the largest sample of the campaign—using the likely-voter model that nailed Nova Scotia in 2024 and Ontario just a few months ago. It offers the clearest picture yet of where Canada stands on the eve of decision day, and why.

The Context

Canadians approach tomorrow’s vote with a pervasive sense of unease. Only 31 per cent say the country is headed in the right direction, while 51 per cent believe we’re on the wrong track; sentiment about the wider world is even darker (14 per cent right direction, 73 per cent wrong).

Over the campaign, however, both main parties have sustained unusually wide paths to victory. The Liberal accessible universe has climbed from the mid-40s in January to 53 per cent today (although lower than its peak mid-campaign at 57%, edging out the Conservatives at 50 per cent, after the Tory pool slid back a few points from its early-January high of roughly 55 per cent.

The Issues

Pocket-book pain still rules the ballot box. Nearly half of Canadians (45%) rank “reducing your cost of living” among their two decisive issues, up three points in a fortnight. “Dealing with Donald Trump and the impact of his decisions” follows at 30 per cent, while housing (20%), economic growth (19%) and healthcare (18%) round out the top tier.

But the mix shifts sharply by generation: cost of living dominates for every age group, yet Trump anxiety rises from just 18 per cent among 18- to 29-year-olds to 45 per cent among voters 60-plus, while concern about housing falls from 36 percent in Gen Z to 11 per cent in Boomers.

On issue ownership, Mark Carney’s Liberals retain a double-digit edge where geopolitics meet security—Trump (+11), representing Canada abroad (+10), supporting Ukraine (+12). Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives win the pocket-book fight: cost of living (+10), housing (+9), deficit control (+2) and “making Canada a better place to live” (+3).

Health-care stewardship and public-service protection are essentially dead heats with the NDP performing best on those – and explaining Jagmeet Singh’s desire to focus the election on healthcare. All this underscores why tomorrow’s verdict will hinge on which frame—global risk or household squeeze—voters feel most acutely in the voting booth.

The Ballot Questions

I’ve argued throughout this campaign that this has been one election with two ballot questions: dealing with Trump and his policies and change.

A month ago the ballot was a referendum on Donald Trump; it’s pretty near an even split between Trump and change.

At the end of March, 54 % of Canadians said managing Trump would steer their vote, versus 46 % who cared more about a change in direction. Four weekly waves later the lines crossed decisively: 56 % now centre their choice on change, just 44 % on Trump. As the campaign ends, 53% say the vote is more about change compared with 47% who say it’s more about Trump.

Region and generation shape that split. Prairie and Alberta voters are the most change-hungry (63% in Alberta, 58% in SK/MB), while Quebec remains the lone region where a slim majority (57%) still prioritises Trump.

Younger Canadians tilt heavily to change (57% among 18-29s), but Boomers lean towards Trump (56%). Partisanship locks in the frame: 75% of Conservative supporters view the election through a change lens, whereas 68% of Liberals see it through a Trump lens.

The consequence is stark: Trump-focused voters break Liberal 58-21, while change-focused voters lean Conservative 55-23—explaining both the tightening race and why neither side can yet claim victory.

The Party Leaders

Mark Carney closes the campaign as the only major leader with a net-positive brand: 46 per cent hold a favourable view of him versus 33 per cent unfavourable—a +12 margin that has climbed steadily from +5 in mid-March. The arc matters. Carney started the year an unknown quantity (19% positive) but has converted the introduction into trust, especially among older voters and swing Liberals.

Pierre Poilievre’s numbers look softer on paper (41% positive, 44 % negative, net –3) yet they, too, reflect progress and resilience. Six weeks ago his negatives out-paced his positives by almost double digits; today the gap has narrowed to single digits and, crucially, he matches Carney on intensity—Conservative supporters like him as strongly as Liberal supporters like Carney.

Jagmeet Singh ends in familiar territory (31% positive, 40% negative), a flat line that underscores why the NDP vote never broke out.

Stacked beside Donald Trump, the contrast is stark. Only 11 per cent of Canadians view the U.S. President favourably, while 77 per cent hold an unfavourable opinion—net –66. Trump remains the great unifier … in the negative sense. His toxicity provides the backdrop for Carney’s “steady hand” narrative and complicates Poilievre’s ability to fully close the deal with centrists.

Asked directly who they would prefer as Prime Minister, 40 per cent choose Carney, 37 per cent Poilievre, and 10 per cent Singh. This is the closest measure on preferred PM that we’ve measured since March.

The attributes we’ve tracked explain the gap: Carney leads Poilievre by 5–12 points on finding common ground, standing up to a bully, and captaining a ship through a rough storm. Poilievre edges ahead only on the more literal, hands-on tasks of putting out a kitchen fire and putting up a shelf. In short, Canadians see Carney as the problem-solver in choppy seas, while Poilievre is viewed as the change agent better with a hammer—an image that helps but hasn’t yet proven decisive.

Expectations on the Outcome

Voters see tomorrow tilting red, but not by a landslide. Today, nearly half (48 per cent) predict a Liberal victory, versus 34 per cent who bet on the Conservatives and just 4 per cent on the NDP; 15 per cent remain unsure.

A month-long swing underlies that headline. In mid-February, fully 52 per cent thought Poilievre would win and only 20 per cent named the Liberals. Confidence flipped through March as Carney’s brand firmed up and the race tightened.

Asked another way, 33 per cent expect a “close Liberal win,” 14 per cent foresee a Liberal romp, while just 27 per cent see any flavour of Conservative win with 15% thinking calling it too close to call.

What is the Central Argument of the Political Parties?

Asked to pinpoint each party’s “central argument,” voters see a far clearer through-line on the Liberal side. Fully 37% say the Liberals’ pitch is that they’re “the only party that can stand up to Donald Trump and protect Canada.” That message is backed by a smaller but coherent second tier—“restore stability and competence” (13%) and “take Canada in a bild new direction” (13%). 41% of Liberal voters say the core message of the campaign for the Liberals has been standing up to Trump. 15% says its about restoring stability.

By contrast, Conservatives present a more diffuse narrative. Their leading theme—“take Canada in a bold new direction”—registers with just 21% of voters, followed closely by “be change to Canada and restore the country’s promise (17%), “clean up corruption/fix a broken system” (16%), and “serious plan to make life more affordable” (15%). Conservative supporters also split on what the core message is from affordability (23%) to restoring the country’s promise (19%) to fixing a broken system (14%).

The Vote

Our final likely-voter model—including only Canadians who say they have already voted in an advance poll or are almost certain to cast a ballot tomorrow—puts the Liberals at 41%, the Conservatives at 39%, the NDP at 10%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, the People’s Party at 3 %, and the Greens at 1%. Compared with our April 21 wave, the Liberal share has slipped a point while the Conservatives have gained two, leaving the minor parties unchanged.

The trajectory chart tells the story: since mid-March, support for the two front-runners has oscillated within a five-point band, with the lead trading hands twice. Carney’s Liberals peaked at 44% during the April 10-25 window and have drifted back three points. Poilievre’s Conservatives bottomed out at 37% a week ago and have clawed two points back to 39%. The NDP recovered from an early-April swoon (8%) to finish at its campaign average of 10%. In effect, late movers nudged the race from a potential Liberal majority to what now looks like a fight between the two.

Regional battlegrounds

Ontario remains the Liberal firewall but things have tightened there: 45% LPC, 42% CPC, 7% NDP

British Columbia is the mirror image: 40% CPC, 38% LPC, 17% NDP—margin-of-error stuff with some three-way seat splits likely.

Quebec shows the Bloc parked at 29%, ten points behind the Liberals at 39%, and Conservatives stuck at 20%.

Atlantic Canada delivers the Liberals their widest margin (56% vs. 37%).

The Prairies do the same for Conservatives: Alberta 58% CPC, Saskatchewan–Manitoba 47% CPC, though Liberals post competitive 19% and 39% respectively, enough to hold and maybe gain some urban seats.

Demographic cross-currents

Age tells two stories. Voters 18-29 break Liberal 46% to 32% (there is a big difference between likely and all eligible voters by age), 30-44 voters split almost evenly (40% CPC, 38% LPC). Middle-aged Canadians 45-59 give the Conservatives their best age margin (42% vs. 33% LPC), but the 60+ cohort swings back convincingly to the Liberals (46% vs. 38%) —critical, given Baby Boomers’ superior turnout.

A persistent gender gap underpins the topline: men prefer Conservatives 43-38, while women prefer Liberals 43-35. Education pulls the parties in opposite directions: Conservatives lead by ten among high-school-only voters (43-33) but trail by twelve among university graduates (35-47).

Where the 2021 coalitions have leaked

Vote retention analysis captures the churn. Eighty-five percent of 2021 Conservatives remain loyal, but 13% have crossed to the Liberals. Liberals hold 79% of their 2021 base and import fully 41% of past NDP voters—an orange-to-red flow that offsets modest erosion to the Conservatives (11%). Only 47 % of 2021 NDP voters stick with Singh.

Why the two-point gap feels bigger on the map

Because Conservative gains are front-loaded in Alberta and the rural Prairies, each additional popular-vote point buys fewer new seats. Liberal support, by contrast, is cost-effective in suburban Ontario, francophone Quebec, and vote-efficient Atlantic ridings.

What could still move

If voter turnout turns out to be higher than we expect (around 70%), then that could help the Conservatives but only be a small margin. Turnout estimates by age, according to our data, are:

18 to 29: 43%
30 to 44: 64%
45 to 59: 75%
60+: 85%

Among those who haven’t voted in an advance poll or are unlikely to vote tomorrow, the vote intention would be: Conservative 39%, Liberal 37%, NDP 11, BQ 5%, GPC 4%.

The Upshot

Barring a late-night plot twist, the numbers point to a fourth Liberal mandate. Their two-point popular-vote edge, coupled with vote-efficient leads in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, puts a Carney government squarely in the driver’s seat—and a majority is a live possibility. Still, the race has tightened just enough in the closing week that a minority can’t be ruled out. If a handful of 905, Lower Mainland, or suburban Winnipeg ridings wobble, 170 seats suddenly looks a taller climb.

What could shift it? Turnout. Our model assumes participation in the high-60s to low-70s. If we’re low—say it pushes well north of 70%—that means more late deciders and infrequent voters, a pool that leans Conservative 39-37. In other words, an unexpected surge of younger and less certain voters would give Poilievre his best (and perhaps only) path to plurality territory.

So watch two things Monday night: advance-vote ridings the Liberals need to hold, and raw turnout levels. If participation tracks 2021 levels, expect a red map and a re-elected Prime Minister Carney before midnight. If the lines outside polling stations are longer than usual—especially in B.C. and the GTAs—this cliff-hanger could run even later than the broadcasters planned.

Tune into CBC tomorrow. I’ll be joining Front Burner podcast host Jayme Poisson and friends to dig into the elections biggest moments, watch the results, and have some fun. Bookmark this link.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,500 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 24 to 27, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

With just days left before Canadians cast their ballots, an election that once seemed destined for a Conservative victory under Pierre Poilievre now stands as an unpredictable contest, with Mark Carney’s Liberals gaining significant momentum. Initially centred around affordability and a widespread desire for change, this campaign has evolved dramatically into a referendum on stability amid global uncertainty.

At the start of the year, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government was deeply unpopular. Just 12% believed he and the Liberals deserved to be re-elected and the Conservatives held a commanding 27-point lead. Canadians were increasingly frustrated with the direction of the country, anxious about economic pressures and disillusioned with their government.

Two pivotal events altered the political landscape. Trudeau’s resignation and Mark Carney’s rise as his replacement coincided with Donald Trump’s provocative return as U.S. President, marked by threats of annexation and punitive trade measures targeting Canada. This shift abruptly changed the election’s narrative from one about domestic dissatisfaction (scarcity) to existential concerns about national security and economic resilience (precarity).

Trudeau’s exit left his party scrambling to hold a rapid leadership election. But the timing of that move may come to be seen as essential in not only the reset in public opinion but also Mark Carney’s almost seamless victory. Although few Canadians had a good sense of who is was, he quickly established himself as an experienced leader required to navigate turbulent times for many people. Carney’s public approval grew steadily from an initial 19% in January to 46% as this campaign ends.

Despite the dominance of Trump-related anxieties, affordability remains a critical issue for nearly half of Canadians. Younger voters are particularly concerned about housing and living costs, while older voters increasingly prioritize healthcare and Canada’s response to Trump’s provocations.

This dual-track issue landscape has reshaped the election’s defining ballot question. Initially, a majority prioritized dealing with Trump. Today, however, a desire for change has become the larger focus to voters. A frame that would normally benefit the Conservatives. And it has, to an extent. But among those who say their vote is primarily about a change in direction, a quarter say they have or will vote Liberal. An indication that Carney has not only protected himself from Trudeau’s legacy but has offered enough voters seeking change, a sufficient dose of it.

For the Conservatives, these developments present considerable challenges. Poilievre’s strategy, initially effective against Trudeau’s deeply unpopular government, has become less relevant as voter anxieties have shifted toward international threats. Additionally, Poilievre faced internal party constraints: about one in five Conservative voters maintain positive views of Trump, complicating his ability to adopt a stronger stance against the American president. Most troublingly for Poilievre, our polling suggested that many Canadians believe, rightly or wrongly, that he would have supported Trump if he could have—a perception that severely undermines his ability to effectively counter Carney on this key issue.

The leaders’ debates further solidified this narrative. Carney narrowly edged Poilievre in public perception, and reinforced on critical attributes like standing up to a bully and navigating through crisis—qualities increasingly valued by voters in uncertain times.

Voter engagement in this election has been notably high, with a projected turnout (my projection) around 71%, reflecting the perceived stakes of this election. Nationally, the Liberals currently hold a slender lead, marking an extraordinary turnaround from their earlier deficits. They maintain solid support in critical battlegrounds, particularly British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec. and Atlantic Canada.

Generational divides continue to shape voter preferences. Younger Canadians, motivated by urgent affordability issues, initially favoured the Conservatives but have moved more toward the Liberals and NDP, while older voters (Baby Boomers) have swung decisively toward Carney’s Liberals, largely driven by security concerns related to Trump.

Several factors underpin the Liberals’ recent advantage. Carney’s personal appeal and perceived economic experience have reassured voters. The collapse of NDP support consolidated progressive voters behind the Liberals. Meanwhile, Conservatives have struggled to expand their base, hindered by perceptions linking them negatively with Trump. At 37%, the Conservative might see their vote share increase with few gains in their seat count.

Despite these challenges, not all is lost for Poilievre and the Conservatives. A persistent desire for change remains strong among 54% of Canadians, providing a potentially potent resource. But with only a few days left, time may be running out to refocus more Canadians back toward domestic change and governance issues. .

Significant uncertainties remain, including late shifts in voter sentiment and internal tensions among voters who like Carney personally but remain reluctant to reward the Liberals with another term. How that tension is ultimately resolved could be the difference in the outcome.

This election underscores how rapidly political landscapes can shift. Initially driven by domestic frustrations, more Canadians are now prioritizing stability and leadership capable of confronting external threats. While Carney currently holds the advantage, the Conservative campaign may still possess potential avenues for reclaiming momentum. Although, as I said, time is certaintly running out.

As we approach election day, Abacus Data’s polling work will continue to try and explain these complex dynamics. Our final poll, released Sunday afternoon, will offer the latest insights into voter intentions a day before Election Day.

Thank you for following this crucial election journey with us. Your engagement and support have been wonderful and have encouraged us to keep exploring and sharing what he learn from the priviledge we have in being able to ask Canadians what they’re thinking and feeling.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

With less than a week to go in the campaign, a new poll from Abacus Data finds the Liberals leading by 3 among all committed eligible voters and those who have voted and by 5 among those who are most certain to vote and those who have voted in an advance poll.

This survey was conducted entirely after the two leaders’ debates held last week and interviewed 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote from April 18 to 21, 2025.

Overall, the data suggest that not much has changed over the weekend and following the two debates. Mark Carney remains the most popular federal party leader. The Liberals continue to have the largest pool of accessible voters, and regionally, the Liberals have leads in British Columbia, Ontairo, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The data continues to suggest that the Liberals have a clear advantage and remain the favourites to win the election.

National and Regional Vote

Nationally, the Liberals sit at 40% among all decided voters, with the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP remains in third place at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois is at 6% nationally. Note, this includes both those who have already voted and those who are decided about who they will vote for.

Since last week, the Liberal and NDP vote share is unchanged while the Conservative vote share is down 1 point.

When we look at voters most certain to cast a ballot and those who already have—an indicator that can better approximate actual turnout—the Liberals open up a 5-point lead over the Conservatives with 42% voting Liberal compared to 37% for the Conservatives. The NDP get 10% of the most certain vote group.

Despite the overall narrowing, the regional picture still shows areas of Liberal strength:

British Columbia: The Liberals have opened up a 9-point lead over the Conservatives (42% to 33%) with the NDP at 15%.

Ontario: The Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points, a smaller gap than we have seen over the last two waves.

Quebec: Here, the Liberals stand at 33%, compared to the Bloc’s 30% and the Conservatives’ 26%. This is the smallest gap we’ve seen in Quebec since the campaign began.

Desire for Change Holds

Despite a clear desire for change, support for the incumbent Liberals remains remarkably resilient. In our latest data, 55% of Canadians say it’s “definitely time for a change in government”—a high number, but only slightly above the 50% threshold recorded in the final polls before several recent elections, including the 2021 federal contest. At the same time, 23% now say it’s “definitely best” to keep the Liberals in office, matching the highest level recorded during this campaign. This is important context: historically, elections with a similar desire for change—such as the 2021 federal vote or the 2024 Nova Scotia election—have not always resulted in the incumbent being defeated. With that 23% firmly behind the Liberals and much of the rest of the electorate split between opposition options, the appetite for change may not be intense or unified enough to deny the governing Liberals another mandate.

Leader Impressions: Carney Still Has Best Image, Poilievre’s Negatives Rise

Mark Carney continues to hold the strongest personal brand among the major party leaders. His positive impressions now sit at 46%, while 33% of Canadians view him negatively. Carney performs especially well among older voters and in key battleground regions like Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where his positive numbers exceed 50%. Among Liberal supporters, his image is overwhelmingly positive, but he also finds support among a notable share of NDP voters—suggesting that he’s not only inherited the Liberal base but is also attracting progressive voters looking to stop a Conservative government. It’s also noteworthy that men have a more favourable impression of him than women.

Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers, on the other hand, continue to pose a challenge for his campaign. While 39% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, 46% view him negatively—his highest negative rating since the campaign began. His support remains concentrated in Alberta and among committed Conservative voters, but he struggles with older Canadians, women, and voters in Quebec. In Ontario—a region critical to any path to victory—his negatives are climbing, and he has been unable to chip away at Carney’s regional lead. The gender gap in his appeal is also stark: men are more evenly split, while a clear majority of women view him negatively.

Jagmeet Singh’s image has remained flat throughout much of the campaign. Currently, 32% of Canadians say they have a positive view of him, while 39% are negative. His support is strongest among younger Canadians and core NDP partisans, but he has not been able to broaden his appeal beyond that base. With little movement in his favourability over the past month, Singh appears to be stuck in place.

On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney leads Poilievre by six points (41% vs. 35%)—a gap that’s narrowed from nine points last week.

Changing Salience of Key Issues: Trump Slides, Cost of Living Climbs

As the campaign enters its final days, affordability remains the top issue on Canadians’ minds. Forty-nine percent now rank reducing the cost of living among their top two priorities—a three-point increase from the previous wave and a six-point increase over two weeks. This concern spans all age groups, but is especially prominent among voters aged 30 to 59.

Meanwhile, the salience of dealing with Donald Trump has declined slightly, down one point to 32% and down 4 since two weeks ago. While still a major issue, it no longer dominates the political conversation in the way it did earlier in the campaign. That shift may be giving the Conservatives a bit more room to press their affordability message, but not enough to fundamentally shift the dynamics.

Despite Trump’s slightly diminished salience, the issue continues to be one of the most defining electoral cleavages. Among those who rank dealing with Trump as one of their top two concerns, the Liberals hold a massive 40-point lead over the Conservatives—60% to 20%. No other issue creates this kind of partisan gulf. Even though fewer voters are making their decision based on the Trump factor, those who do are overwhelmingly choosing the Liberals. This helps explain why the Liberals remain competitive even as the focus shifts toward affordability—because the Trump issue is disproportionately salient among older, high-turnout voters.

At the same time, the Conservatives continue to hold a narrow edge among those most focused on affordability. Among voters prioritizing cost of living, 43% plan to vote Conservative, but 32% still back the Liberals and 11% support the NDP. It’s not the kind of dominant lead the Conservatives once hoped for—especially given how central this issue has been to their campaign. Even on housing affordability and the economy, the Liberal brand has improved. On who would do the best job growing the economy, the Liberals lead by five points. On housing, Conservatives lead by five, but that margin is shrinking.

When voters are asked more broadly who would best handle key issues, the Liberals outperform on most. Carney’s team leads on Trump, international relations, and unity, and is essentially tied on healthcare. The Conservatives have a slight advantage on the cost of living while the Liberals have a similar sized advantage on the economy. The salience of Trump may be fading, but the Liberals’ dominance among those who still care deeply about it remains one of the strongest vote predictors in the campaign.

Shift in Voter Framing: “Change” vs. “Trump”

One of the most important developments late in the campaign is the evolving way voters are framing the ballot question. At the end of March, more Canadians said they would cast their vote based on which party could best handle Donald Trump’s impact on Canada. But in our most recent surveys that has flipped back. Fifty-six per cent now say the more decisive factor is which party can deliver a change in direction and policy, while only 44% say it’s about who can manage the Trump threat. That’s a 10-point swing over the course of the election The shift reflects a return to economic bread-and-butter issues as a more dominant lens, especially as Canadians finish voting during the final stretch of the campaign.

However, even with the Trump frame declining in salience, it remains a powerful predictor of vote choice. Among those who continue to prioritize Trump’s impact on Canada, the Liberals hold a massive lead—60% say they will vote Liberal, compared to just 19% for the Conservatives. In contrast, among those focused on affordability, the race tightens. The Conservatives lead that group 51% to 25% over the Liberals, with the NDP at 12% among those who say their primary choice is about change.

But the Liberal vote in this affordability-focused group is more resilient than expected, particularly given how central cost-of-living issues have been to the Conservative campaign. Similarly, when the election is framed as a choice between affordability and Trump, affordability wins by a wider margin but the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is lower – the Conservatives only lead by 16.

Regionally and demographically, the frame matters. In Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Trump frame remains relatively strong, contributing to the Liberal vote advantage in both regions. Among older voters, who are more likely to see Trump as a central concern, the Liberal advantage persists, even as affordability rises in importance. Meanwhile, younger Canadians overwhelmingly frame the election as about change or the cost of living. What this all points to is a ballot question in flux—but with core voter segments locked into the Liberals when the conversation is about global risk and leadership, while the Conservatives only gain ground when the lens narrows strictly to affordability. That tension has helped sustain the Liberal lead in vote intention, even as the economic frame dominates the campaign’s final week.

Liberals Still Seen as the Likely Winners

Despite the tightening of the horse race and a growing demand for change, 48% of Canadians say they expect the Liberals to win the election, an increase of one point since last week. Meanwhile, 32% believe the Conservatives will come out on top—unchanged over the same period.

Leaders’ Debate Reaction

Canadians tuned in to the debates in modest numbers, with 47% saying they watched at least some of the English-language leaders’ debate and 33% reporting they did the same for the French debate. Another third heard about them through media or word of mouth. These numbers suggest the debates reached a sizable, though not overwhelming, share of the electorate—and, as the data show, the impact on impressions was incremental, not transformational.

Among those who engaged with the debates, Mark Carney came out slightly ahead of Pierre Poilievre in both languages, earning 37% of the vote for best performance in the English debate compared to Poilievre’s 34%, and 26% in the French debate versus 29% for Poilievre. However, the most striking figure may be the large share of viewers who said no one really earned their vote: 16% in English and 26% in French. This reinforces the idea that the debates largely confirmed existing leanings rather than shifting voter preferences.

Looking at impressions, Carney consistently left more positive marks than his rivals. In the English debate, 52% of viewers said he made a positive impression—six points ahead of Poilievre, who also generated more negative reactions (29% vs. Carney’s 23%). Among francophone Quebecers, Yves-François Blanchet led on positive impressions at 59%, but Carney still edged Poilievre in net favourability (41% positive, 23% negative vs. Poilievre’s 47% positive, 29% negative). Overall, these numbers suggest Carney effectively maintained his leadership brand through the debates, while Poilievre was unable to shift the race in his favour.

The Upshot

With just days remaining before election day, our latest tracking suggests the trajectory of the campaign remains largely unchanged. Despite a shift in how voters are framing their decision—more now clearly say affordability is their top concern rather than Donald Trump’s impact on Canada—the Liberals continue to hold a modest but durable lead. The televised leaders’ debates last week, expected to be pivotal moments, appear to have done little to reshape public opinion. And the early read from the long weekend, when nearly a quarter of Canadians say they cast their ballot, shows that impressions solidified before the debates and holiday gatherings have largely stuck. The race, in other words, is still playing out on familiar ground—with the Liberals narrowly ahead.

What’s holding this Liberal advantage together is the largely positive appeal of Mark Carney. Although a majority of Canadians still say they want change, many also say they like Carney and see him as best equipped to manage the risks posed by Donald Trump. That internal tension—between wanting to punish the Liberals for past performance and feeling reassured by Carney’s leadership—is creating space for the Liberals to win, even in a change election. Carney’s favourables remain the strongest of any major leader, and among those prioritizing stability and leadership, he has become the clear choice.

The Conservatives still have a path forward, but it’s a narrowing one. Affordability remains a potent issue, especially among middle-aged voters, and the Conservatives continue to lead among those who see it as their top concern. But it hasn’t been enough to tip the race. The Liberals remain better positioned regionally, with double-digit leads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, competitive support in Quebec and British Columbia, and a more motivated and committed base. Unless the Conservatives can engineer a major momentum shift in the final stretch, the early vote and polling trends suggest the Liberals still hold the advantage—and it’s one built on leadership impressions, turnout readiness, and the right vote efficiency in the ridings that matter most.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

At 8:30 p.m. Eastern, as the English‑language leaders’ debate was close to wrapping up in Montréal, our team at Abacus Data pushed a national, English‑only survey into field. Within roughly ninety minutes we captured responses from a representative sample of 1,200 Canadian adults.

We asked every participant whether they had watched “all or most,” “some,” or “a little” of the debate, or not at all, and we analyse results through that lens. But the time‑zone spread, the English‑only questionnaire, and rapid turnaround all argue for caution: the numbers are instructive, not definitive. Still, they showcase how quickly the Abacus Data team can move to capture reaction to an important event like tonight’s debate.

In total, 602 people in our sample said they watched at least a little of the leaders’ debate.

Overall, as of 10:00pm ET, 51% of Canadians said they watched at least “a little” of the debate, and 39% claimed to have seen “all” or “most” of it. Somewhat surprisingly, there wasn’t a big difference in viewership by age. 36% of those aged 18 to 44 said they watched at least some of it, 37% of those aged 45 to 59, and 45% of those aged 60 and over said they watched some or most of it.

Of those who watched, traditional television still dominated: 64% caught the debate on a conventional TV feed, compared with 19% who streamed it online, 13% who streamed through social media, and 3% who listened on the radio.

First impressions: who shone, who stumbled

When we asked debate viewers whether each leader left a positive, neutral, or negative impression, the verdict tilted toward Mark Carney. Fully 59% rated his performance positively compared with 53% who felt the same way about Pierre Poilievre. 41% felt Jagmeet Singh left them with a positive impression while 25% felt the same way about Yves-Francois Blanchet.

In contrast, 22% said Carney’s debate performance left them with a negative impression compared with 30% for Poilievre and 35% for Singh. Taken together, the net impact on impressions for Carney is +37, +23 for Poilievre, and +6 for Singh.

The split views hold when we ask viewers who they felt did the most to win their vote. 43% said Poilievre did the most to win the vote followed closely by Mark Carney at 40%, a statistically tie. 11% felt Singh did the most to earn their vote with 2% picking Blanchet and 5% saying none of them did.

84% of Liberal voters said Carney did the most to earn their vote while 90% of Conservatives felt the same way about Poilievre. Among NDP supporters, 65% felt Singh did the best, followed by 16% who picked Carney and 13% who picked Poilievre.

When we ask who did the most to “lose your vote”, 29% picked Poilievre, followed by 21% who picked Carney. Singh was third at 17% and Blanchet was at 13%. 20% said none of the leaders did the most to lose their vote.

Did minds actually change?

Debate nights rarely flip the race, but they do shake the edges of the electorate. Just over seven in ten viewers told us the debate did not change how they intend to vote. Another 23% say it has made them “re‑think” their decision—essentially opening the door to persuasion—while only 4% assert the debate has made them change how they plan to vote.  Among those who say they debate made them rethink or change their vote, current vote intention is: Liberal 43%, Conservative 41%, NDP 13%, Green 3%. Among those who say they debate did not change their vote, vote intention is Conservative 47%, Liberal 44%, NDP 7%, Green Party 1%, and People’s Party 1%.

Expectations versus reality

Heading into tonight, our pre‑debate survey found that Canadians thought Carney was more likely than Poilievre to “do best” the English debate, even though expectations for his showing in French were far lower. The early read is that both Carney and Poilievre likely met expectations and neither gained a significant advantage over the other.

The Upshot

If campaigns are marathons punctuated by sprints, tonight’s English‑language debate looks like a brisk jog that left the two frontrunners exactly where they started. Mark Carney produced the marginally warmer afterglow—59 per cent of viewers said he left them feeling more positive, versus 53 per cent for Pierre Poilievre—but the gap is well within the emotional noise of a political TV event. Equally important, neither leader repelled large swaths of voters: Carney’s net impression sits at +37, Poilievre’s at +23, a difference significant for bragging rights but not yet for ballot boxes.

The key metric for momentum is movement, and on that score the dial barely twitched. Just four per cent of viewers tell us they’ve actually switched their vote; another 23 per cent are “re‑thinking,” but their current preferences mirror the national horse‑race (among English speaking Canadians) almost exactly. In other words, the debate prompted reflection, not realignment.

Could the narrative change over the Easter weekend? Absolutely. Debates age in the after‑show analysis, clips shared on social feeds, and dinner‑table debriefs. Yet our first pass suggests the Liberals’ slim national lead survives intact and the Conservatives may not have found the breakout moment they needed.

Methodology

This survey was conducted with 1,200 English speaking Canadian adults from 8:30pm to 10:00pm on April 17, 2025, following the English-language leaders’ debate. A total of 602 people said they watched at least some of the debate. Respondents were randomly selected from a set of partner panels integrated through the Lucid exchange platform. These panels are typically double opt-in and are blended to reduce the risk of bias from any single source.

A probability-based sample of this size would carry a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Survey data were weighted to reflect the Canadian population by age, gender, education, and region, based on the latest census data. Totals may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.