I’m thrilled to share that Oksana Kishchuk has been promoted to Vice President, Insights at Abacus Data.
Oksana has been a driving force behind some of our most important and impactful work. She leads our agriculture and agri-food practice, guides projects in post-secondary education, youth engagement, and healthcare, and heads our federal government public sector work.
Her ability to combine curiosity with a deep understanding of our clients’ needs has helped us grow existing relationships and build new ones.
With nearly a decade of experience in market research, Oksana has a rare talent for asking the right questions, designing thoughtful research plans, and delivering insights that clients can act on today and in the future.
Her leadership, collaborative spirit, and commitment to quality reflect the best of what Abacus stands for.
Please join me in congratulating Oksana on this well-deserved promotion. You can reach out to her by email and follow her on social media.
— David Coletto Founder & CEO, Abacus Data
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From July 31 to August 7, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,686 Canadian adults on the state of federal politics. The polling occurred primarily after Canada and the United States failed to reach a new trade and security agreement before the self-imposed August 1 deadline, a moment that might have sparked public reaction, but instead revealed just how steady Canadian political attitudes remain.
Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, Canadians appear largely unmoved in their federal political preferences. Government approval has dipped slightly, but vote intentions are static, and the desire for change remains stuck in neutral.
Direction of the Country: No Panic, No Rally
Just 36% of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction, the same as in mid-July. Meanwhile, 46% think the country is off on the wrong track, a stable but still elevated level of pessimism. These results suggest Canadians are watching the stalled U.S. negotiations with concern, but not with alarm.
Views about the world remain bleak (14% right direction), as do impressions of the United States (14%), reflecting persistent unease about President Trump’s second term and America’s unpredictable posture on trade and global leadership.
Top Issues: Trump Ticks Up, Housing Drops Back
The rising cost of living remains the dominant issue, cited by 62% of Canadians, up modestly from 59% in the previous wave. Donald Trump and his administration remain the second-most-mentioned concern, rising slightly to 44% (from 43%), further evidence that American politics continue to deeply shape Canadian anxieties.
The broader economy is a close third at 37% (up 1), while housing affordability and accessibility has dropped slightly, from 35% to 31%. Healthcare also edged down to 31%, from 33% two weeks ago.
These shifts, while small, reinforce a political climate shaped by affordability fatigue and international turbulence. The Trump presidency has become a durable second-tier issue, not displacing domestic worries, but consistently competing with them.
Government Approval: A Small Dip, But Still Majority Support
Approval of the Carney-led federal government now stands at 50%, down two points since mid-July. Disapproval is unchanged at 27%. This marks the first time since March that approval has touched the 50% line, suggesting a mild cooling-off following a long stretch of goodwill.
While the overall balance remains positive, the drop likely reflects concerns about the lack of progress on key domestic files and a perceived absence of resolution in high-profile international negotiations.
Performance Measures: Strengths Abroad, Weaknesses at Home
Mark Carney continues to earn his strongest marks on files tied to diplomacy and governance:
Representing Canada internationally: 49% good/very good
Working with premiers: 46% good/very good
Handling Donald Trump: 41% good/very good
But when it comes to domestic economic issues, perceptions turn sharply:
Housing affordability: 41% poor/very poor vs. 29% good
Cost of living: 40% poor/very poor vs. 32% good
Handling taxpayer money: 37% poor/very poor vs. 33% good
Deficit and debt: 40% poor/very poor vs. 30% good.
While the public gives Carney credit for his tone, values, and international steadiness, many remain unconvinced that progress is being made where it matters a lot, in their household budgets.
Among Canadians who voted Liberal in 2025, approval levels are markedly higher across every file. Fully 80% say Carney has done a good or very good job representing Canada internationally, 71% say the same about his work with premiers and the values he brings to the job, and 68% approve of his handling of Donald Trump. Even on weaker areas like housing and cost of living, Liberal voters are more forgiving, with about half rating his performance positively, though these remain the lowest-scoring files even among his base. This suggests that while the Prime Minister enjoys deep goodwill among his supporters, expectations on domestic affordability remain a live test heading into the fall.
Leader Impressions: Carney Holds Ground, Poilievre Breaks Even
Mark Carney remains in positive territory, with 48% viewing him favourably and 29% unfavourably for a net score of +19. These numbers are down slightly from July but remain strong, particularly in Quebec (+41), BC (+20), and Ontario (+18), and among older voters.
Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, has reached a rare balance: 42% positive, 41% negative, for a net score of +1. This is his best net rating in months.
Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in Canada: 13% favourable, 75% unfavourable, a net of -62, virtually unchanged.
Desire for Change: A Story on Pause
Views about change in government remain unmoved. Four in ten (39%) of Canadians believe it’s time for a change and see a good alternative. Another 27% want change but don’t see a viable option. Meanwhile, 34% say the Liberals under Carney deserve re-election, steady from the last wave and the highest that figure has been in two years.
In short: no new movement, no new momentum.
Issue Ownership: A Divided Map
When asked which party is best equipped to handle the issues they care most about, Canadians continue to divide along familiar lines.
Cost of living: Conservatives 39%, Liberals 29%
Donald Trump and his administration: Liberals 58%, Conservatives 21%
On immigration, the Conservative lead remains stark: 60% of those who prioritize it believe the CPC is best suited to handle the issue, compared to only 15% for the Liberals.
Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals Still Edging Out Conservatives
The accessible universe for the Liberal Party sits at 56%, virtually unchanged from last wave. The Conservatives remain close behind at 55%. Regionally, the Liberals maintain an edge in Ontario and Quebec, while the Conservative pool is wider in the West. The NDP lags significantly behind, at 34% nationwide.
Vote Intention: Still Deadlocked
If an election were held today, 43% of decided voters would cast a ballot for the Liberals — no change since mid-July. The Conservatives also hold steady at 40%. The NDP stands at 8%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, with the Greens and PPC both between 1% and 2%.
Among those certain to vote, the Liberal advantage increases slightly to 44% vs. 40% for the Conservatives.
Regionally:
British Columbia: A tie: 39% each for the Liberals and Conservatives, with the NDP at 16%
Ontario: Liberals lead 48% to 41%
Quebec: Liberals at 44%, Bloc at 25%, Conservatives at 23%
Atlantic Canada: Liberals ahead 50% to 42%
Alberta: Conservatives lead with 62%, Liberals at 27%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: Conservatives at 52%, Liberals at 34%
Demographic Trends: Familiar Patterns Persist
The Liberal advantage remains strong among younger voters (47% among 18–29s), while the Conservatives lead with middle-aged Canadians (45% among 30–44s) and those over 50 (44% to 38%).
Women lean Liberal (45% to 38%), while men are split more evenly. Among university-educated voters, the Liberals lead by 19 points (52% to 33%), but the Conservatives are ahead among those with a college degree (46% to 36%).
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As the deadline for a new Canada–U.S. agreement came and went with no breakthrough, Canadians didn’t blink. Support for the governing Liberals remains strong, vote intentions haven’t moved, and the desire for change is static.
The Carney government retains a solid approval base and a reputation for international competence. But there are signs of drag: its domestic economic ratings are showing wear, and the Prime Minister’s halo on affordability issues may be beginning to dim.
For now, Canadians are separating frustration with outcomes from blame toward the government. But that separation may not last forever. As summer wears on, it’s the economy, not foreign affairs, that could add more complexity to the political climate heading into fall.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,686 Canadians from July 31 to August 7, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey via partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
In our second deep dive into Canadian attitudes toward artificial intelligence, we turn our attention to AI’s growing role in the workplace. From July 10 to 15, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,915 Canadian adults to understand how they perceive the impact of AI on their jobs and careers. As AI adoption accelerates across the country, Canadians are experiencing a mix of anxiety, curiosity, and cautious optimism. The findings reveal a workforce deeply divided – not just over whether AI will bring more opportunity or risk, but also over how prepared they feel for the changes on the horizon.
AI Anxiety Runs High
Nearly half of employed Canadians (47%) say they’re worried that AI and automation could soon force them to change their job or career. But this concern isn’t evenly spread – it’s most intense among young adults, with 55% of those aged 18-29 expressing anxiety about needing to shift careers within the next five years. People who are already familiar with AI are also more likely to worry (56%), perhaps reflecting a deeper understanding of how quickly workplace technology is evolving.
Most Expect Job Losses, and Many Don’t Feel Ready
The spectre of job loss is widespread – seven in ten employed Canadians believe that AI will make some jobs in their industry obsolete. And the feeling of being prepared to adapt to this new reality is split right down the middle: 50% say they feel ready, while the other half feel unprepared.
Readiness also follows demographic lines. Young adults (63% of those 18-29, 58% of 30-44) and men (54%) are more likely to say they feel equipped to handle the change, while older Canadians (68% of those 60+) and women (55%) are less confident. The biggest gap is between those who are familiar with AI (68% feel prepared) and those who aren’t – 80% of that group say they’re not ready for what’s coming. These findings underscore a real divide in how equipped Canadians feel to face the coming transformation.
Is AI an Opportunity or a Threat? Canadians are Split Down the Middle
Asked whether AI will bring more opportunities than risks to their workplace in the next five years, Canadians are perfectly divided: 49% see the upside, while 51% remain unconvinced. But optimism is more common among men (53%), Canadians aged 30-44 (56%), and those familiar with AI (61%). In contrast, women (58%), older Canadians (61% of 60+), and those who lack AI familiarity (71%) are more likely to view AI as a net risk. This deep split highlights the ongoing debate over whether AI will ultimately help or harm the Canadian workforce.
AI Training Is Still the Exception, Not the Rule
Despite all the anticipation – and anxiety – around AI, only about one in three employed Canadians (36%) report that their employer has encouraged, required, or provided any training to help them use AI tools at work. The vast majority are left to figure things out on their own, or not at all. For most workers, structured support to adapt to AI remains out of reach, potentially widening the skills gap in the years ahead.
A Clear Expectation: More Jobs Lost Than Created
When Canadians consider the bigger picture, pessimism outweighs optimism: 62% believe that AI will eliminate more jobs than it creates, with just 11% believing the opposite. There is a widespread expectation that AI’s impact on the labour market will be more about disruption and loss than new opportunities.
THE UPSHOT
The rise of AI in Canada is more than just a technological shift – it’s a moment of change for our workforce, our economy, and how secure Canadians feel about the future. Many are already feeling anxious about what AI could mean for their jobs and livelihoods, and those concerns are shaping conversations about work, learning, and trust in our institutions.
If these worries are left unaddressed, there’s a risk that progress could slow and divisions could widen. But there is also a real opportunity for leaders – across government, business, and the tech sector – to step up and guide Canadians through this transition. As AI continues to accelerate, people will look for answers and reassurance about how they will be supported and protected.
With open communication, investment in accessible training, and a commitment to inclusion, Canada can help ensure that everyone is prepared to adapt at their own pace and on their own terms. By working together and focusing on people, not just technology, we can help Canadians feel more confident about the future.
AI’s potential will be realized if we bring everyone along. The choices made now will help shape not only the future of work, but also our sense of community and resilience in a rapidly changing world.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from July 10 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
When people ask me what it’s like to work with Abacus Data, I tell them it’s a bit like flying business class for the first time: suddenly you realize how smooth and easy the journey can be when you’ve got the right partner looking after every detail.
We’re not a vendor.
We’re not just researchers.
We’re your co-pilot.
We help you ask better questions, uncover the truths and unmet needs others miss, and tell stories that resonate because we know the real value of research isn’t the data, it’s the decisions it helps you make and influence.
Our entire approach is built around something we call enlightened hospitality. It’s not just about timelines and deliverables, it’s about how we treat people. We lead every engagement with professionalism, warmth, and responsiveness. You’ll get clear roles, real-time transparency and constant updates that helps you feel confident, not left in the dark.
What makes this possible is our team. We try to live by a set of fundamentals – from “do the right thing, always” to “deliver enlightened hospitality” to “go beyond description and tell them what it means.” These aren’t just posters on a wall. They shape how we show up every day: thoughtful, curious, rigorous, and relentlessly focused on our clients’ success.
We obsess over quality. Every report, every dataset, every slide deck is a reflection of our standards and we sign our work in bold. If something doesn’t feel right, we double-check it. If a number moves in a tracking survey, we pause and ask, “Why?” We’re not afraid to flag issues or tell a client that the data isn’t ready because trust is built in those moments.
Our senior team is hands-on. When you work with Abacus, you’re not handed off to juniors. I still read the toplines, write the debriefs, and get into the weeds of every project that crosses my desk. I’m like that chef whose restaurant you excited to try for the first time. You want that chef cooking in the kitchen. That’s me along with Ihor, Eddie, Oksana, and others on our team. That’s how we ensure clarity, consistency, and depth in everything we do.
Our analysis blends data science and human insight. We use advanced analytics, AI-powered coding tools, and rigorous methods, but we always ground our findings in context and experience.
We don’t just say what the data shows. We explain what it means and how to act on it. That’s why our work gets noticed. It’s why governments, media, and major brands listen when we speak. And it’s why our clients often tell us, “That’s exactly what we needed to hear.”
But it’s not just about the insight, it’s about how we deliver it. We’ve designed our project management around making your job easier. You’ll always know what’s happening next, what we need from you, and when you’ll get the next deliverable. We anticipate roadblocks, solve problems without blame, and stay flexible to your shifting priorities.
We work across sectors – from retail to healthcare to housing to tech to labour to public policy – but what ties our work together is a deep understanding of human behaviour. We sit at the intersection of consumer, citizen, and worker attitudes, which gives us a 360° view of how people think and feel. That perspective helps our clients get ahead of emerging trends, identify unmet needs, and make bold, informed decisions.
We’re proudly independent and fiercely non-partisan. We don’t work for political parties, and we don’t skew the data to fit a narrative. Our job is to tell the truth, even when it’s inconvenient. That integrity has earned us the trust of organizations like the Canadian Medical Association, Google, WestJet, Interac, and many more.
At the heart of it all, we’re endlessly curious. We want to understand what’s changing, what people care about, and how our clients can lead through uncertainty. And we’re generous with what we learn, through briefings, webinars, media commentary, and day-to-day client work. We don’t hoard insight. We share it.
So if you’re looking for a research and strategy partner who will challenge your thinking, deliver clarity in a noisy world, and treat your problems like our own, then Abacus might be the right fit.
We are Canada’s most sought-after and influential full-service market and public opinion research agency.
But what we really do is identify the unmet needs of your audience and develop strategies for you to meet those unmet needs first.
Through qualitative and quantitative research methods, our deep experience and and wide perspective, we ask the right questions that capture insights, show you where things are going to be, and help our clients navigate some of their biggest challenges, deepen relationships with customers and stakeholders, and better understand the road ahead.
About David Coletto
David is one of Canada’s best known and most respected public opinion analysts, pollsters, and social researchers. He works with some of North America and Europe’s biggest and most respected brands, associations, and unions andis frequently called upon by news organizations, to assess public opinion as events happen.
In January 2024, The Hill Times recognized him as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in Canadian Politics noting, “when David Coletto releases polling numbers, Ottawa listens.”
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New Abacus Data research reveals Canadians have clear expectations for their leaders and Mark Carney currently aligns more closely with those expectations than Pierre Poilievre.
In a moment defined more by uncertainty than upheaval, Canadians are not just evaluating what their leaders promise to do, they’re watching closely for how they lead. What kind of leadership do Canadians want right now? What traits are considered essential for the job of Prime Minister? And how well our main national political leaders – Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre – living up to that standard?
That’s the question this research set out to answer.
Rather than focusing on policy or partisanship, we asked Canadians to step back and consider leadership more fundamentally: what qualities matter most in a Prime Minister? And once those expectations are established, how well do they describe the current Prime Minister and the man who hopes to replace him someday?
The data tell a compelling story. Canadians have a clear and widely shared view of what they want in a leader: calm under pressure, principled over partisan, thoughtful, strategic, and in touch with ordinary people. When measured against these expectations, Mark Carney significantly outperforms Pierre Poilievre on nearly every dimension. The contrast is especially striking among accessible voters – those open to voting Liberal or Conservative but don’t currently support those parties – who see Carney as better aligned with the leadership qualities they value most.
What follows is a detailed look at what leadership looks like to Canadians in the moment we are and how well the two main political figures in the country measure up.
The Nine “Must-Have” Leadership Qualities
We presented Canadians with a list of nine traits and behaviours and asked how important each is in selecting a Prime Minister. The result: a broad consensus on what Canadians expect in a leader.
Three-quarters (74%) say a Prime Minister must put the country’s interests ahead of political gain.
72% say they must understand the challenges facing ordinary Canadians.
71% want someone who has a clear strategy and plan.
68% expect open and clear communication about goals.
67% prioritize evidence-based decision making over ideological rigidity.
Traits like being calm and steady during uncertain times (65%), providing thoughtful answers (63%), and being willing to change one’s mind (59%) are also seen as must-haves.
Even traits that may feel like political style points, such as avoiding unnecessary conflict, are deemed essential by a majority (56%).
What’s notable is that these are not qualities easily written off as partisan. Liberal and Conservative voters alike rate them highly, with only small gaps between the two camps. This tells us that, for most voters, the bar is set high, and not particularly differently across the political spectrum.
Carney Closer to the Mark
Across all nine of the qualities tested, more Canadians believe Mark Carney embodies these traits than Pierre Poilievre. The gaps are not just statistical; they are substantial and consistent.
For example:
69% say Carney is “calm and steady during uncertain times”, the highest score on any attribute. Just 45% say the same about Poilievre.
On avoiding unnecessary conflict, Carney leads Poilievre by 16 points.
On providing thoughtful answers and communicating clearly, he leads by 13 and 5 points respectively.
Even on the top “must-have” item, putting the country’s interests ahead of political gain, Carney is seven points ahead (55% vs. 48%).
Carney’s biggest advantage shows up when we isolate “accessible” voters for the Liberal and Conservative parties – those who don’t currently support the party but say they might consider voting for it. Among these swing voters:
79% say Carney is calm and steady, compared to just 48% for Poilievre.On thoughtfulness and avoiding unnecessary conflict, the gaps are +18 and +20 in Carney’s favour.
Even on items like changing one’s mind when presented with better evidence, a rare trait in modern politics, Carney has a 7-point edge.
In short, Carney is not just liked. He’s seen as competent, principled, and measured, qualities that resonate strongly with the electorate right now.
Poilievre’s Challenge: A Growing Gap Between Expectations and Perception
For Pierre Poilievre, the picture is more complicated. While his supporters see him in highly positive terms, and his ratings are strong within the Conservative voter universe, his alignment with broader public expectations is weaker.
Among all Canadians, there’s a double-digit gap between what people want and what they believe Poilievre offers on almost every attribute:
A 26-point gap on putting the country ahead of politics (7-point larger gap than Carney)
A 20-point shortfall on making decisions based on evidence (9-point larger gap than Carney)
15- to 18-point deficits on being calm, having a plan, and communicating clearly.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean Canadians dislike him – since 55% say he understands ordinary Canadians, 54% say he communicates clearly, and earlier analysis finds his net favourable is -4 at the moment.. But those numbers simply aren’t high enough to match the public’s expectations vis-à-vis Mark Carney.
The result: a leader with a solid, motivated base, but one who faces clear resistance from other voters, especially those looking for calm, substance, and non-combative leadership.
What About Carney’s Gaps?
Carney’s numbers aren’t perfect either. Among all Canadians, there are still gaps between expectations and perception on several items. The largest:
19-point gap on putting the country ahead of politics.
17 points on understanding ordinary Canadians.
15 points on having a plan.
But these gaps are smaller than Poilievre’s, and in many cases, they’re closed or reversed among key groups. Among 2025 Liberal voters, for instance, Carney overperforms expectations on eight of the nine tested traits. And among accessible Liberal voters, he performs particularly well, including:
79% say he’s calm and steady.
77% say he avoids conflict.
70% say he communicates clearly.
The Qualities That Matter Most Right Now
Not all traits matter equally. When we look at what Canadians are telling us, three “must-have” qualities consistently sit at the top of the list:
Putting country over politics (74%)
Understanding ordinary Canadians (72%)
Having a clear strategy (71%)
These three speak to a moment where voters are tired of gamesmanship, hungry for authenticity, and eager for competence. The current context, post-pandemic fatigue, Trump 2.0, micro-economic anxiety, extreme weather, and international instability, has pushed people to look for leaders who are serious, grounded, and credible.
Traits like “calm during uncertain times” and “decisions based on evidence” round out the top five, reinforcing the picture of an electorate seeking steadiness, not spectacle. Reassurance over disruption.
In this environment, Mark Carney is better positioned. He delivers more of what voters say they want. And he does so not just with his base, but with those still up for grabs.
More Advanced Analysis
If the analysis above didn’t provide enough evidence, then the following should. When we use binary logistic regression to understand which of the nine elements are the most important in predicting positive impressions of both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.
Mark Carney
The analysis for Mark Carney reveals that three attributes are especially predictive of a favourable impression of him.
Calm and steady during uncertain times (Estimate: 1.03, p < 0.001) This is the strongest predictor. Canadians who believe Carney embodies this trait are significantly more likely to view him favourably. In a moment shaped by volatility and uncertainty, this calmness appears to be a core leadership signal.
Puts the country ahead of party (Estimate: 0.90, p < 0.001) This quality, ranked as the most essential by Canadians, is also a strong driver of Carney’s appeal. It reinforces the importance of perceived integrity and national focus in shaping political impressions.
Makes decisions based on evidence, not ideology (Estimate: 0.88, p < 0.001) Competence and rationality matter. Carney’s technocratic brand appears to align well with voter preferences for evidence-based, pragmatic leadership.
Other statistically significant predictors include thoughtful communication, a clear plan, and a willingness to avoid unnecessary conflict. Traits like “changing one’s mind” or “understanding ordinary Canadians” are directionally positive but fall short of statistical significance at the 95% confidence level.
Pierre Poilievre
We ran a separate binary logistic regression to determine which leadership traits best predict positive impressions of Pierre Poilievre.
The most powerful predictor for Poilievre is “puts the country’s interests ahead of political gain” (Estimate: 1.46, p < 0.001). Canadians who perceive this quality in him are far more likely to view him favourably, reinforcing the central role this attribute plays across political lines. However, while the trait matters a great deal, fewer voters assign it to Poilievre compared to Carney, making it both a key opportunity and a vulnerability.
Two other traits also stand out as significant predictors of positive impressions:
“Provides thoughtful answers, not just talking points” (Estimate: 0.80, p = 0.005) This suggests that when Poilievre is seen as substantive and thoughtful, rather than reactive or rehearsed, his appeal broadens considerably.
“Understands the challenges facing ordinary Canadians” (Estimate: 0.62, p = 0.009) This aligns with one of Poilievre’s brand strengths, his repeated focus on affordability, housing, and everyday struggles. When this connection lands, it drives favourability.
Three additional traits, having a strategy, clear communication, and avoiding conflict, are also statistically significant and positively associated with favourable views. However, the magnitude of these effects is smaller.
Interestingly, “being calm during uncertain times” and “making decisions based on evidence, not ideology” are not significant predictors in this model. This may reflect a brand built more on urgency, conviction, and contrast than on calmness or technocratic pragmatism.
One trait, “avoids unnecessary conflict”, is negatively associated with favourable impressions of Poilievre (Estimate: -0.70, p = 0.04), meaning that those who perceive him as not combative are less likely to view him positively suggesting those who like him, appreciate the friction he creates. They likely want more, not less – even as most Canadians would prefer a leader who doesn’t do that.
Insight from the Advanced Models
When we compare the two models side by side, a clear pattern emerges: while both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre benefit from being seen as leaders who put the country ahead of political gain, the drivers of favourable impressions diverge beyond that.
For Carney, favourability is most strongly linked to perceptions of calmness, evidence-based decision-making, and measured, principled leadership, traits that reflect a technocratic, steady approach.
In contrast, Poilievre’s support is driven more by being seen as thoughtful, in touch with ordinary Canadians, and clear in his communication, although his more confrontational style may be limiting his broader appeal despite it being a driver of favourability to those who like him. In short, Canadians reward both men for seriousness and purpose, but Carney wins with reassurance and steadiness, while Poilievre’s strength comes from connection and conviction.
So What?
In a tight race where the Conservative and Liberal parties are statistically neck-and-neck, the question of leadership character could play a defining role. Voters aren’t just asking who has the better policy, they’re asking who they trust to steer the country through a moment defined by volatility, high stakes diplomacy, and shifting economic terrain.
Pierre Poilievre’s strength continues to lie in mobilizing his base and speaking to a sense of urgency and dissatisfaction. But the data here reveal the limits of that strategy: his brand is not yet aligned with the broader public’s expectations of a Prime Minister. And his more confrontational political style, while appealing to core supporters, may be holding him back among those who value calm, collaboration, and institutional trust.
Mark Carney, on the other hand, benefits from being perceived as measured and policy-driven. His perceived temperament matches what more Canadians are looking for right now, especially as his government navigates complex negotiations with the United States and continues to respond to global trade turbulence stirred up by Donald Trump.
Canadians are not vague or passive about what they want in a leader. They want someone who puts the country first, understands their challenges, and brings a clear, steady hand. Right now, Mark Carney is meeting those expectations better than Pierre Poilievre, not just with his own base, but with the people in the middle who will decide future elections.
These numbers reinforce the challenge Poilievre faces in broadening his appeal. He’s not far off in raw vote numbers, but he trails on the stuff that defines prime ministerial leadership in the minds of most Canadians. That doesn’t mean the gap can’t close, but it may require a recalibration of tone and substance or a change in the competitive landscape (a rising NDP and BQ).
As Canadians enter the second half of 2025, most are not demanding radical reinvention. They’re asking for stability, empathy, and competence. The question isn’t just whether voters are satisfied with government performance at this point; it’s whether they see a leader who matches the moment.
Carney’s calm, technocratic style fits well with a public mood that prizes steadiness over spectacle. For Poilievre, the challenge isn’t enthusiasm, it’s expansion. Unless he can reshape how Canadians see him on the traits they value most, the path to victory will depend less on how frustrated people are with the status quo, and more on whether they believe the alternative is truly ready to lead.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from July 10 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey via partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Between July 10 and 15, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults to examine their perceptions and opinions about artificial intelligence (AI). As AI rapidly becomes a fixture of our daily lives, Canadians are grappling with a complex mix of curiosity, skepticism, fear, and optimism. From virtual assistants, fast diagnostics, rapid customer service, and smart devices to recommendation systems, AI is becoming increasingly embedded in the fabric of our daily routines. Governments, corporations, and influencers are touting the benefits. But the big question remains: Are we truly ready to embrace its opportunities, or are we cautious or even scared about the risks it brings? The truth lies somewhere in between.
The Growing Presence of AI in Everyday Life
AI is here, and it is becoming a part of many Canadians’ daily lives, even if they don’t always realize it. 45% of Canadians use AI tools on a regular basis, while 55% note that they rarely or never engage with AI. When considering usage, there is a clear generational divide: Younger Canadians are far more likely to use AI, with 72% of those aged 18-29 and 62% of those aged 30-44 regularly incorporating it into their lives. In contrast, just 20% of Canadians aged 60+ use AI on a regular basis. This growing reliance on AI among younger generations signals a significant shift, one that has the potential to expand as technology becomes even more integrated into everyday life.
Trust and Distrust in AI
When it comes to trust in AI, Canadians are split: 37% trust in AI, but a significant 50% remain skeptical about its role in society. Young people tend to be more trusting: 57% of 18-29-year-olds express confidence in AI, while only 20% of Canadians 60+ share that sentiment. Men also tend to trust AI more than women, with 42% of men confident in its capabilities compared to just 32% of women.
What accounts for this gap? Familiarity plays a significant role. While 53% of Canadians say they are familiar with AI tools, this figure is notably higher among younger, more tech-savvy groups. Specifically, 74% of those aged 18-29 and 67% of those aged 30-44 are comfortable navigating the AI landscape. In contrast, 69% of Canadians aged 60+ report being unfamiliar with AI.
Moreover, familiarity with AI is closely linked to trust. Among those who are familiar with AI, 56% express trust in it, compared to just 16% of those who are not familiar. Additionally, frequent users of AI report higher levels of trust—69% of regular AI users trust it, while only 17% of occasional users and just 5% of non-users share that sentiment. This highlights the need for improved AI literacy across all generations to foster greater trust and understanding.
The Benefits of AI: Optimism for the Future
Despite the skepticism that comes with technological advancements, there is unmistakable evidence of AI’s ability to revolutionize and improve various aspects of life. Many Canadians see AI as a tool for increased efficiency and productivity, with 33% believing it can reduce human error and 30% feeling it will improve access to information and education. Others are excited about the promise of convenience in daily life, enhanced healthcare, and new opportunities for creativity and innovation.
However, not everyone is convinced. Only 13% believe AI will significantly drive economic growth or create new jobs, and 24% feel it will have no positive impact on society. Despite these concerns, many Canadians see AI’s value in improving everyday experiences – whether through faster decision-making, personalized recommendations, or even advancements in healthcare and other industries.
The Dark Side of AI: Concerns and Risks
While AI offers many benefits, it also raises significant concerns with the public. Many Canadians fear AI could be used for malicious purposes, with 43% worried about its potential to manipulate or harm. The spread of misinformation is another major issue, cited by 42%, as AI-generated content becomes increasingly difficult to differentiate from truth. Privacy is also a key concern for 38%, who worry about personal data being exploited.
Economic and social fears are prevalent as well. 34% of Canadians are concerned about job losses due to automation, and another 34% fear losing human control over AI systems, with machines making decisions without oversight. Social isolation is another worry for 30%, who fear that increased AI interactions could reduce meaningful human connection. Additionally, 25% are anxious about unintended consequences beyond human control, highlighting the need for careful management and regulation as AI becomes more integrated into society.
Unprepared for Change: How AI Is Changing Our Lives
Most Canadians do not feel prepared for the change that AI will mean for them and society. A little over half (54%) of Canadians feel unprepared to keep up with the rapid pace of change that AI is bringing, with older Canadians (73% of those 60+) feeling the most unready. In contrast, younger Canadians, particularly those aged 18-44, are much more confident in their ability to adapt to AI’s growing role. This divide highlights the need for greater education, engagement, and support to help all Canadians, especially older generations, navigate the challenges and opportunities that AI will bring to our lives.
The Upshot
Governments, including the Mark Carney-led federal government, are charging ahead with AI strategies, investment plans, and regulatory frameworks, aiming to harness AI’s potential to drive innovation, productivity, efficiency, and global competitiveness. However, outside of official Ottawa and in the boardrooms of tech firms, public sentiment remains far more cautious, if not outright skeptical.
As AI continues to evolve, Canadians are presented with both exciting opportunities and significant concerns. While AI holds the potential to transform industries, improve daily life, and spark innovation, its rapid development, combined with limited understanding, has fuelled skepticism and fear. This is particularly true among older generations, who feel disconnected from the technology and its broader implications. And we believe understanding of AI’s impact is underappreciated suggesting public opinion could change rapidly as stories about job losses, disruption, and change continue to spread. The speed of AI’s advancement, coupled with uncertainties about privacy, misinformation, and job displacement, has made many wary of its potential risks.
The gap between elite enthusiasm and public anxiety is dangerous. As David argued in the Toronto Star op-ed recently, it risks creating a political backlash that could rival past populist uprisings, especially if the human costs of AI are downplayed or ignored. To bridge this divide, the government must lead with transparency, addressing concerns head-on while emphasizing AI’s economic and social benefits. Only then can we ensure AI is embraced as a transformative force, rather than a source of fear and division.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from July 10 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
A few months removed from a commanding re-election, Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs continue to find themselves continuing to hold high levels of public support and a big lead over a divided opposition. With no major controversies consuming Queen’s Park, a relatively quiet opposition, and a public square still focused more on the potential impact of Trump’s policies, the opinion environment remains favourable to the provincial government.
Vote Intention: PC Party Tops 50%
If a provincial election were held today, 50% of committed voters say they would cast their ballot for the Progressive Conservatives. That’s up one point since our last survey in early June and marks the party’s highest vote share since the start of 2024. The Liberals remain at 28%, unchanged from last month, while the NDP has slipped further to 13%, down a point. The Greens now sit at 6% (+1), while other parties attract 3% of the vote.
Approval Holding at High Levels
Doug Ford’s approval ratings remain strong and stable. As of mid-July, 44% of Ontarians approve of the job he and his government are doing, unchanged since our last wave. Disapproval has edged up slightly to 32% (+1), but the government still holds a +12 net rating, among the highest seen in the past two years.
The trendline confirms it: since late 2023, the Ford government has been on a slow but steady upward climb. From a low point in early 2024, approval ratings recovered through the spring and peaked just before the provincial election. Today, they remain near those highs, suggesting a Premier still very much in control of his narrative.
Ford’s Personal Brand Continues to Strengthen
The Premier’s personal numbers are even more telling. Today, 46% of Ontarians say they have a positive impression of Doug Ford, compared to 33% who view him negatively, a net +13 rating, and the highest of any provincial leader by a wide margin.
By contrast, Bonnie Crombie’s impressions are evenly split (33% positive, 32% negative), resulting in a net of just +1. Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner both have net impressions of +4, but nearly one in five voters say they don’t know enough about either to offer an opinion.
Among all voters, Ford is also the top choice for Premier, with 46% selecting him, more than double the number who choose Crombie (20%) or Stiles (12%). That advantage extends across nearly every region, age group, and gender category.
Broad and Stable Coalition
The PC coalition remains impressively wide. Regionally, they lead by double digits across the board:
GTHA: 54% PC vs. 30% Liberal
Toronto: 49% PC vs. 32% Liberal
Southwestern Ontario: 54% PC vs. 23% Liberal
Eastern Ontario: 43% PC vs. 29% Liberal.
Demographically, the PCs lead among both men (53%) and women (48%), and especially among Ontarians aged 45 to 59, where they hold 59% support. Among voters aged 60 and over, they lead with 53%, and even among younger voters aged 18 to 29, the party garners 42%—still ahead of the Liberals at 31% and Greens at 10%.
This is a government whose support reaches across regional and generational lines, anchored by perceptions of stability and confidence at a time of uncertainty created by US President Donald Trump.
The Opposition Faces Familiar Challenges
While Ford’s numbers have remained strong, the opposition continues to struggle with definition and visibility.
Bonnie Crombie’s numbers have improved modestly over the last few months, but she remains a polarizing figure with a net impression of just +1. Marit Stiles and Mike Schreiner remain liked by those who know them but largely unknown to most voters. Neither the NDP nor the Greens are making meaningful gains.
That being said, the Ontario Liberals have as large a pool of accessible voters as the PCs. 54% of voters say they would consider voting Liberal, one point ahead of the PCs at 53%. The NDP’s accessible voter pool sits at 40%, and the Greens trail at 30%. There is potential for the Ontario Liberals to expand their support.
Ford the Collaborator?
Part of Ford’s sustained appeal appears to be his shifting political style. The “buck-a-beer” populism of earlier terms has been replaced by a more pragmatic, centrist governance model that seems well-attuned to the mood of the moment. In a province (and country) focused on responding to economic uncertainty, affordability, and geopolitical friction, Ford’s leadership feels, at least to many, grounded, less partisan, and more functional.
He’s also benefited from an increasingly cooperative dynamic with the Carney-led federal government, particularly on economic growth and dealing with the United States. Ford’s willingness to be a team player on the national stage, without losing his brand, continues to reinforce a positive image among many Ontarians.
The Upshot
Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs are heading into late summer in a commanding position. With 50% of committed support, a wide lead over their rivals, and consistently strong personal numbers, the Premier appears to have consolidated both power and public confidence, at a time when many Ontarians are looking for stability and economic focus.
The opposition, by contrast, remains fragmented and low-profile. The Ontario Liberal Party, while still the main alternative in vote share, has not gained ground. However, Bonnie Crombie’s personal numbers have improved over the last two months, and the party’s accessible voter pool is equal to that of the PCs. With a party convention looming in September, where Crombie will face a formal leadership review, the pressure to redefine the Liberal brand and solidify support is only growing. But the environment is one the Liberals will have a hard time shaping themselves and there’s likely little Crombie can to do change fortunes right now. It’s about building and being ready to respond in the future if the mood and circumstances change.
The NDP and Greens, meanwhile, continue to struggle with visibility. Both leaders remain modestly liked, but their parties are not yet competitive across key regions or age groups.
At a broader level, voters remain focused on affordability, inflation, and Canada’s role in a volatile global landscape. In that context, the Ford government’s measured, pragmatic approach continues to resonate. For now, the political environment remains calm, and that calm continues to benefit the Premier.
But as always, conditions can change. Economic pressure points remain. Public patience on housing is not unlimited. And the Liberal convention in September could reshape the conversation, either by clarifying Crombie’s mandate or reopening questions about who should lead the Liberals.
For now, though, the PCs are in a dominant position, and Doug Ford shows every sign of making the most of it.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from July 10 to 15, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From July 10 to 15, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,915 Canadian adults about the state of federal politics, capturing opinion just days after the federal government adjusted its approach to the Digital Services Tax (DST) in response to the Trump administration. As Ottawa continues its high-stakes renegotiation of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship, aiming for a deal before August 1, Canadian public opinion remains remarkably steady.
Direction of the Country: Optimism Holds, But Unease with the World Persists
Just over a third (36%) of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction, down slightly from two weeks ago. While more still say Canada is on the wrong track (44%), that number has stabilized after months of modest improvement. However, global sentiment remains bleak: only 12% think the world is headed in the right direction, and just 11% feel that way about the United States, a low point driven largely by anxiety over President Trump’s economic and foreign policy moves.
Supporters of the federal Liberals are far more optimistic (57%), while just 20% of Conservatives share that view. Optimism is higher among older Canadians (43% among those 60+), Atlantic Canadians (43%), and higher-income households. Young people (18–29) and women remain notably less upbeat, with only 33% and 31% respectively saying Canada is headed in the right direction.
What’s Keeping Canadians Up at Night? Tariffs, Trump, and Global Instability
In a word cloud generated from open-ended responses, two terms dominate: “Tariff” and “Trump.” Trade anxieties have clearly surged to the top of Canadians’ concerns this week, particularly in the wake of the Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on Canada. While domestic issues like “costs” and “rent” remain visible, the overriding worry is global: war, economic uncertainty, and Trump’s unpredictability loom large.
Top Issues: Affordability, Trump, and the Economy
The rising cost of living remains the top issue (59%), followed by Donald Trump and his administration (43%), the economy (36%), and housing (35%). Healthcare ranks fifth at 33%. These toplines reinforce a political environment where domestic affordability and global volatility intersect. Notably, the continued and relentless presence of Trump as a second-ranked national issue reflects just how deeply American politics are shaping Canadian concerns.
Government Approval: Solid and Stable
Approval of the Carney government sits at 52%, unchanged from the last wave. Only 27% disapprove, a minor uptick, but still far below pre-transition levels under Justin Trudeau. Since becoming Prime Minister in March, Carney has maintained a stretch of positive approval, even amid challenging economic and geopolitical headwinds.
Carney remains well-regarded by Canadians. Nearly half (49%) have a positive impression of him, while 28% view him negatively, a net favourability of +21. Regionally, his net scores are highest in Quebec (+32), Atlantic Canada (+26), and Ontario (+22). Older Canadians continue to be his strongest demographic base, with a net +35 among those 60+.
By contrast, Pierre Poilievre continues to polarize. His net favourability sits at -4 (38% positive, 42% negative), with higher negatives among women (-11), Quebecers (-29), and those over 60 (-16). His strength remains concentrated among Conservative supporters (+72) and rural Canadians.
Trump, meanwhile, remains profoundly unpopular. Only 12% of Canadians view him favourably, while 76% hold a negative opinion, yielding a net -64, largely unchanged from earlier waves.
Desire for Change: Flatlined
The share of Canadians who believe it is time for a change and see a good alternative remains at 31%, identical to two weeks ago. Another 33% want change but don’t see a viable alternative. Meanwhile, 36% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, the highest that number has been in over two years, and evidence of a government that’s regained public trust.
Party Best Able to Handle Key Issues
This underlying approval for the federal government is also reflected in which party Canadians trust to handle the country’s top issues. On bread-and-butter economic concerns, the Conservatives retain a slight edge. Among those who prioritize the rising cost of living, 38% say the Conservatives would handle it best, compared to 31% for the Liberals. The same pattern holds on housing affordability (33% CPC to 30% LPC) and the broader economy, where the Conservative advantage grows to 12 points (46% to 34%). But the Liberals remain ahead on files where values and external pressures dominate. When it comes to managing Donald Trump and his administration, the defining issue for over 4 in 10 Canadians, 58% place their trust in the Liberals, compared to just 21% for the Conservatives. They also lead, though narrowly, on healthcare (31% to 25%). On immigration, however, the contrast is stark: 56% of those who prioritize it believe the Conservatives are best equipped, with only 18% saying the same of the Liberals. These splits highlight the complex terrain both parties face, economic frustrations are fuelling Conservative credibility, but Trump-era geopolitics and institutional trust continue to benefit the Carney Liberals.
Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals Maintain Edge
Fifty-eight percent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 52% who say the same about the Conservatives. In both Ontario and Quebec, the Liberal accessible pool is at 57% or higher, a key advantage as both parties prepare for a long pre-campaign phase. The NDP trails far behind at 36%.
Vote Intention: Still Deadlocked
If an election were held today, 43% of decided voters would vote Liberal, compared to 40% for the Conservatives, a slight two-point gain for the Liberals since early July. The NDP is at 7%, down from 9%, and the Bloc is at 6%. Among those certain to vote, the numbers are virtually identical.
Regionally, the Liberals hold clear leads in Quebec (44% to 28%) and Atlantic Canada (55% to 38%). Ontario remains competitive (46% Liberal, 43% Conservative), while the Conservatives dominate in Alberta (58%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (52%). British Columbia remains tightly contested at 40% Liberal, 39% Conservative, and 14% NDP.
Demographic Trends: Age and Education Continue to Define the Divide
Among voters aged 18 to 29, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by three points (42% to 39%). That gap widens significantly among older Canadians, with the Liberals ahead by 12 among those 60 and over (49% to 37%). Women favour the Liberals by six points (43% to 37%), while men are evenly split. As always, education matters: among university-educated Canadians, the Liberals lead 49% to 36%. Among those with high school or less, the Conservatives are ahead 36% to 34%.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Despite the heat of a global trade dispute and the intensity of Trump’s new threat of tariffs, Canadian public opinion remains strikingly steady. There’s no spike in volatility, no sudden lurch toward opposition, instead, we see a country that’s learned to compartmentalize anxiety and go on with its summer.
Approval for the Carney government remains in majority territory. The desire for change is flat. And while affordability continues to top the issue agenda, the government’s measured, pragmatic approach to managing the Trump challenge appears to be giving it political breathing room.
As the federal government focuses on its negotiations with the United States, the electorate appears content, not thrilled, but confident enough to let Carney steer the ship. The real test may come in the fall, once the trade deal deadline passes and Canadians assess whether the calm of summer was well-earned.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from July 10 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey via partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Between March 26 and April 4, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,500 Canadian adults – 1,000 mutual or segregated fund holders and 1,500 members of the general public. This research, commissioned by Canada Life, explores how Canadians engage with these investment products, examining satisfaction, confidence, and barriers to entry. The findings reveal where mutual and segregated funds are performing well, where gaps remain, and how the industry can better connect with both current investors and those yet to enter the market.
Mutual Funds: Satisfaction Is High, Confidence Less So
Nearly two-thirds of Canadians with mutual funds report being satisfied with their investment experience (63%), compared to just 4% who are dissatisfied with their funds.
This strong satisfaction is driven by consistent performance and service:
69% of holders believe their fund supports their long-term goals
69% cite satisfaction with stable returns
68% feel positively about diversification and overall value
68% report satisfaction with the returns that they receive.
Investors are also satisfied with the broader experience. Most report high satisfaction with investment control (69%), customer service (68%), and quality of advice (68%), and ease of transactions (68%). These scores reflect the accessibility and reliability that mutual funds are known for.
Satisfaction with fees is lower at 55%, highlighting cost as a potential pressure point – especially as transparency and low-cost options grow in appeal. However, only 9% express concern, suggesting fees are noticed but not a major source of frustration for most investors.
Interestingly, just 43% of mutual fund holders feel their investments will meet their long-term financial goals, and 19% are unsure. This gap between satisfaction and confidence in long-term performance highlights a potential opportunity for advisors and providers to bridge experience and future assurance with clearer communication about how mutual funds can deliver on financial objectives over time.
Segregated Funds: High Satisfaction and Greater Confidence
Segregated fund holders report even higher satisfaction, with 74% saying they’re pleased with their investment (vs. 63% of mutual fund holders) while only 2% report being dissatisfied.
Segregated fund holders see the product as delivering strongly on key financial priorities, including alignment with long-term goals (78%), balanced returns (75%), diversification (75%), and risk protection (74%), a combination that drives consistently high satisfaction and low levels of dissatisfaction. Additionally, 73% are satisfied with the returns they receive, reinforcing the fund’s perceived overall value.
What’s more striking is that this satisfaction spans across nearly all major touchpoints:
76% are satisfied with both the quality of advice and responsive customer support
75% rate clarity and transparency highly
74% are satisfied with ease of use and overall performance
73% note being satisfied with the level of control they have over their funds
This consistency suggests that segregated funds are delivering a reliable, well-supported experience for investors.
Segregated fund holders show higher confidence, with 61% feeling assured their fund will meet long-term goals (vs. 43% of mutual fund holders). Just 13% express doubt, likely due to the added reassurance of features like death benefit guarantees and creditor protection.
Barriers to Investing in Mutual or Segregated Funds: A Missed Opportunity for Engagement
While mutual and segregated funds are well-regarded by current investors, uptake among the broader population remains limited – only 32% of Canadians have mutual funds, while 3% have segregated mutual funds. For those not currently invested in either product, the challenges are less about performance and more about awareness, confidence, and clarity.
Knowledge and Confidence Gaps Create Hesitation
For those who do not currently invest, specific barriers to entry are experienced. Knowledge gaps (37%), concerns about risk (24%), and uncertainty about how to get started (30%) remain significant hurdles.
Canadians Want Clear, Personalized Education
To build interest and trust in these products, Canadians need more tailored and transparent information. When asked what would help them feel more confident about investing, non-holders pointed to several key needs:
Understanding of risks and returns (52%)
Clear breakdowns of fees and charges (35%)
Insight into how products align with their financial goals (35%)
Information about guarantees or protection features (34%)
Comparisons to other investment options (34%)
The Upshot
This research highlights a critical opportunity, not just to expand awareness, but to close the growing gap between engagement and confidence. Satisfaction among mutual and segregated fund holders is strong: investors feel supported, well-served, and generally positive about performance. Yet for many, particularly mutual fund holders, confidence in long-term outcomes remains shaky.
The challenge isn’t dissatisfaction, it’s disconnection. Many Canadians, especially those not currently invested, don’t see mutual or segregated funds as relevant to their financial lives. This is driven by low awareness, unclear value, and uncertainty about how these products align with personal goals. It reflects more than a communications issue, it signals a deeper mindset shift fueled by economic precarity.
In today’s climate, Canadians aren’t just looking for returns, they’re seeking reassurance, control, and purpose. Even financially active investors want to know: will this product protect me when things change? Will it help me stay in control?
For advisors and providers, the path forward is clear:
Mutual fund holders need proactive, personalized guidance to close the confidence gap and reinforce long-term alignment.
Segregated fund holders require ongoing reassurance and retention strategies that highlight both growth potential and protection.
Disengaged Canadians need simplified, goal-based education and clear entry points that reduce friction and demystify investment products.
The takeaway is twofold: deepen the confidence of those already invested and reframe the relevance for those who aren’t. In an age shaped by financial precarity, success will go to those who can make investing feel not only smart, but safe, flexible, and empowering.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from March 26 to April 4, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.96 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Between June 26 and July 2, 2025 (before the Texas floods), Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults to better understand perceptions of climate change. This article looks at how recent extreme weather is raising public concern, even as most Canadians remain focused on everyday issues like affordability and the economy. We explore the public’s call for balance between climate action and economic stability, and what these shifting views could mean for the Liberal government’s approach going forward.
A Major Concern Overshadowed by Immediate Issues
For much of the past year, the top issues facing Canadians have remained steady: the cost of living, healthcare, housing, and – more recently – Donald Trump and his administration. In this context, climate change has slipped down the list of urgent public issues, with only 15% now ranking it among their top three concerns. While still important, climate change is being overshadowed by more immediate, day-to-day worries. Political lines further shape this outlook, with 18% of Liberal voters and 26% of NDP supporters naming it as a top issue, compared to just 4% of Conservative supporters.
Yet despite Canadians’ day-to-day focus on other issues, concern about the long-term impact of climate change remains high, with 77% of Canadians noting that thy are worried about climate change’s future effects. This marks a significant 15-point jump in concern since October 2024, suggesting that, while Canadians may not be prioritizing climate action right now, they are far from complacent. Concern is especially strong among Liberal (92%) and NDP (93%) supporters, but even among Conservative voters, a majority (57%) express worry about the future.
Extreme Weather Events Bring Climate Impacts Closer to Home
Much of this growing concern can be traced to the direct experience of extreme weather. Today, 65% of Canadians believe that extreme weather events are becoming at least moderately more frequent or severe in their area, with just 9% believing otherwise. This view is higher among NDP (81%) and Liberal (72%) supporters, but is also shared by more than half (53%) of Conservative supporters.
When asked about changes they’ve noticed in their own communities over the past 5 to 10 years, Canadians point to a range of disruptions: more wildfires or wildfire risk (50%), unusual temperature fluctuations (46%), more frequent heatwaves (45%), increased rainfall or flooding (32%), and stronger or more severe storms (29%). Only 13% say they haven’t witnessed any significant changes.
Reflecting these lived experiences, 67% of Canadians are concerned about the impact of extreme weather events in their area over the next five years. This shows that concern about climate change isn’t just abstract – it’s becoming personal for many, as more Canadians feel the effects firsthand in their own communities.
Canadians Want Balance, Not Sacrifice
When considering how the government should address climate change, a majority (58%) believe the federal government should take a balanced approach, tackling both economic growth and climate action at the same time. Only one in four (23%) feel economic growth should be prioritized, even if it means delaying climate action. This indicates that most Canadians do not see this as an either-or choice – they expect progress on both fronts, rather than sacrificing one for the other. Even with economic pressures top of mind, relatively few are willing to see climate action set aside.
Again, there are notable political differences. Support for balancing the economy and climate is strongest among Liberal (70%) and NDP (64%) supporters, but nearly half of Conservative supporters (47%) also favour this approach. For the Liberal government, this emphasis on balance presents both an opportunity and a challenge: pursuing policies that demonstrate progress on both economic and environmental goals could help maintain and broaden support, but any perceived failure to deliver on either front risks alienating their core base as well as persuadable voters looking for a middle path.
Mixed Reviews on Government Action
Despite the strong public desire for meaningful climate action, many Canadians are dissatisfied with the Liberal government’s performance on this front. Only 20% feel the Liberal government is effectively addressing climate change, while a larger share (30%) believe it is falling short. Even among committed Liberal supporters, fewer than three in ten (27%) believe the government is delivering real progress on the issue. For the government, the gap between expectations and perceived results is a clear warning sign that more visible leadership and tangible progress are needed to regain public confidence, especially if the issue becomes more salient.
Canadians’ Priorities for Climate Policy
Asked what the federal government should focus on over the next few years, Canadians point to increased investment in renewable energy and clean technology (42%), improved infrastructure to withstand extreme weather (31%), and more collaboration with provinces and territories on climate goals (29%). Many also support targeted incentives: 27% want financial support for industries transitioning to sustainable practices, 23% would like to see more support for smart energy homes, and 13% want further incentives to adopt electric vehicles. These results make it clear that Canadians want to see practical, forward-looking policies that both strengthen the economy and help communities adapt to a changing climate.
THE UPSHOT
The spike in climate concern this wave is unmistakable. A growing share of Canadians now place climate change among their foremost worries, driven by a summer of grim visuals: lethal flash-flooding in Texas that has already left well over a hundred people dead and billions in damage (occurred after this survey was fielded) and a wildfire season on track to become Canada’s second-worst on record. These extreme weather events feed the broader precarity mindset – the sense that day-to-day life is perched on a knife-edge where extreme weather can upend routines, finances, personal safety, and displace entire communities without warning.
Rising alarm, however, does not automatically make climate change a ballot-box litmus test. Voters tend to weigh multiple anxieties, and pocketbook pressures still dominate. What our data do suggest is that climate may be emerging as a required discussion topic in national political conversations: leaders who cannot articulate how they will protect households from fires, floods, and spiralling insurance costs risk sounding out of touch. In other words, while climate may not yet decide elections on its own, it is fast becoming a credibility filter through which broader economic and leadership claims are judged.
Avoiding public numbness remains a strategic imperative. If heat domes, smoke advisories, and flood alerts become annual background noise, psychological calluses could form even as objective danger grows. The antidote is to keep the narrative personal and local – linking carbon policy to the cost of cooling an apartment during a week-long heat emergency or the premium hike after a basement flood. Framing climate risk in these everyday terms resonates with the cost-of-living lens that defines the precarity mindset and prevents the issue from slipping into abstraction fatigue.
Politically, a notable vacuum persists. Neither the Carney Liberals nor the Poilievre Conservatives have secured clear ownership of the climate file; both are still perceived as juggling emissions goals with affordability promises. With the NDP entering a leadership race and the Greens struggling for relevance, there is genuine space for a third-voice narrative that elevates climate from a balancing act to a defining priority. A credible contender who offers ambitious but economically grounded solutions – industrial-policy carrots over consumer-facing sticks – could capture the high-concern segment now looking for a champion.
Over the next year, our tracking will watch three signposts:
Whether climate climbs into the top-two unprompted national issues;
Whether leader scores on “has a credible plan to fight climate change” start to shift favourability and vote pools; and,
Whether partisan gaps in perceived climate risk widen, signalling sharper political sorting.
For now, extreme weather keeps climate firmly in the foreground of public dialogue, reinforcing the precarity mindset and creating an opening for bolder political entrepreneurship. Whether that translates into decisive ballot behaviour remains uncertain, but its role as an important driver in the conversation could be changing.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 26 to July 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
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