At Abacus, we’re strategic thinkers, storytellers and data experts focused on digging in to the unknown to equip our clients with the tools they need to succeed.

What is Abacus Data MRP?

It’s a sophisticated statistical method that’s been spot-on in predicting elections like the 2017 & 2019 UK general elections, and the 2016 US presidential election.

Abacus Data MRP works by conducting extensive polls, focusing on detailed respondent data rather than trying to represent the entire population. Using this data, MRP builds a model to predict voting patterns based on demographics. It’s like a crystal ball for understanding voter behavior.

Different from traditional polling, Abacus Data MRP combines national surveys with census data for local predictions. Perfect for constituencies that are hard to poll.

Abacus Data MRP isn’t just for elections. It’s crucial for targeted marketing and advocacy campaigns, identifying potential supporters in even the smallest segments.

Abacus Data MRP offers a more affordable, accurate alternative to traditional surveys – a big win as phone survey response rates plummet.

Imagine understanding what every electoral district thinks about key issues. With Abacus Data MRP, that’s possible. A vital tool for politicians and campaigners.

In every survey, we ask respondents to select the top three issues they feel are most important to the country.

When it comes to crime and public safety, those living in Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South, and Elmwood-Transcona are more likely to rate it as a top issue than those living in any other riding.

Healthcare is a top issue to more people living in South Shore–St. Margaret’s, Cape Breton–Canso–Antigonish, and Central Nova than any other riding.

We can also map results by polling division. Here’s a map of the federal electoral district of North Vancouver – Capilano with estimates for housing affordability as a top 3 issue by polling district. Areas with blue are more likely to care about housing affordable while beige and yellow areas are less likely – relative to other issues.

Red 0 – 36.7%
Biege 36.7% – 44.4%
Yellow 44.4% – 49.6%
Green 49.6% – 53.6%
Blue 53.6% – 73.8%

CASE STUDY: Abacus Data MRP in Action for a Public Affairs Campaign

Context and Challenge:
In preparation for a significant lobby day on Parliament Hill, a major association faced the daunting task of demonstrating to Members of Parliament (MPs) how their constituents felt about the industry’s key issues. The challenge was monumental: conducting polls in all 338 federal electoral districts was financially unfeasible. This is where Abacus Data MRP came into play, offering a cost-effective and powerful solution.

Implementation of Abacus Data MRP:
Abacus Data collaborated closely with the Association to design, execute, and analyze a comprehensive national survey of at least 3,000 Canadian adults. The survey results were meticulously broken down by vital demographics, political variables, and geographical locations in a easy to read, story-telling driven report. Something we are known for – ask around!

The real innovation, however, lay in Abacus Data MRP’s unique capability. Beyond the general survey analysis, it generated 338 individual reports, each tailored for a specific Member of Parliament.

These reports were crafted to be straightforward, visually engaging, and narratively clear, focusing on three key questions that reflected the issues most pertinent to the Association.

We can also produce a summary map that shows results by riding like below which reports the propensity of those living in different ridings to rate climate change as a top 3 issue.

Impact and Outcome:
On lobby day, groups from the Association personally delivered these custom reports to MPs, providing them with a tangible and clear insight into their constituents’ opinions, thoughts, and potential actions regarding the industry’s critical issues. This approach not only personalized the lobbying effort but also equipped MPs with data-driven evidence directly relevant to their electoral districts.

Abacus Data MRP’s innovative approach transformed the Association’s strategy, turning a complex challenge into an opportunity to directly influence public policy through informed, constituency-specific advocacy.

This case exemplifies the transformative power of Abacus Data MRP as a new and exclusive tool in the realm of public affairs and lobbying strategies.

For more information or to see a demo, contact Yvonne Langen or David Coletto.