Ontario Election 2025: PCs headed for a big majority
On February 24 and 25, 2025, we conducted our final poll of the 2025 Ontario provincial election with a representative online survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our fourth survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.
Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs are headed towards a big majority government, increasing their vote share from our previous poll.
Among committed voters and those who have already voted, the PCs are likely to get 45% of the vote, a four-point increase from our last poll and a larger share of the vote than the party received in the 2022 provincial election. The Ontario Liberals are at 29%, up 1 point from last week while the Ontario NDP is down 5 points to 16%. 5% would vote Green and 5% for another party.
Regionally, the PCs are numerically ahead in every region, leading by 26 points in the GTHA (not including Toronto), by 15 in southwestern Ontario, and are statistically tied with the Liberals in Toronto and eastern Ontario.
Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (51% to 28%) but face a more competitive race among women (38% PC, 31% Liberal). The PCs lead among all age groups, but their lead is greater among those aged 30 to 59. The Greens get 17% of those aged 18 to 29 in our survey.
Why are Doug Ford and the PCs set to be easily re-elected?
The desire for change has increased over the campaign, but a sufficiently large proportion of the electorate wants to see the PCs and Ford re-elected. Today, 57% say it is definitely time for a change in government in Ontario (up 9 since the beginning of the campaign) but 21% say Ford and the PCs should definitely be re-elected (only down 1). Almost all of those who say they would like the PCs to be re-elected are going to or have voted PC. But interestingly, 13% of those who say they definitely want change are also voting PC.
Among those who definitely want change, we also still see a split. 48% are voting or voted Liberal while 26% are voting NDP. Since the start of the campaign, the Liberals have increased their share of “definite change voters” (at the start of the campaign both the Liberals and NDP had 35%), but not by a sufficient margin to put themselves in a position to win the election.
When we compare our results today with past election, the desire for change number is approaching what we consider a danger zone for incumbent governments, but has not reached that point. As many people today in Ontario want to see Doug Ford and the PCs re-elected as did in our final poll in Nova Scotia (which the incumbent PC government easily won) and in our final 2022 Ontario election poll.
The PC Party has been able to overcome a growing desire for change because of three factors: it’s approval rating is relatively strong and improved in the final week, Doug Ford’s personal numbers are as good as any of the other party leaders, and voters are sufficiently focused on issues that the PCs are doing best on.
The Ford government’s approval rating rebounded this week, ending the campaign with 41% approving and 42% disapproving. This isn’t as good as when the campaign began but a solid place for an incumbent to be two days before election day.
When we asked how people feel about the party leaders, all four major party leaders end the campaign with a net favourable impression. Doug Ford is +3 (43% positive vs. 40% negative), Bonnie Crombie is +2 (33% positive vs. 31% negative), and Marit Stiles is +9 (33% positive and 24% negative).
Of note, since the start of the campaign, those with a positive impression of Bonnie Crombie have increased by 7 points (26% to 33%) while her negatives are down 3 (34% to 31%). For Stiles, her favourables are up 5 (28% to 33%) while her negatives are down 4 (28% to 24%). Those saying they don’t know enough about those leaders to have an opinion are down 8 for Crombie and 9 for Stiles.
Doug Ford started the campaign at 41% positive and ends at 43%. All in all, it is rare for all party leaders to end an election campaign better than when they started it but that’s what we are seeing in this one.
To reinforce Ford’s advantage, when we ask who people would prefer to be Premier, Ford is ahead of Crombie by 17 points when we remove those who are undecided. When the campaign started, Ford lead by a massive 31 points. Crombie’s share is up 7, but still well behind Ford.
Finally, perhaps the biggest factor in explaining the likely lopsided victory for the Ontario PCs is how they have been able to keep voters focused on issues they are more likely to own.
When we ask people what issues they most want to see debated in the election, our final poll finds little change from last week or the start of the campaign. 61% put the cost of living in their top 3 issues, followed by healthcare (40%), housing (37%), and dealing with Trump’s tariffs (32%). Since the start of the campaign, cost of living is up 1, healthcare is unchanged, housing is down 1 and Trump’s tariffs are unchanged. The campaign did not shift the focus of voters at all.
More specifically, when we ask people what is most likely to drive their vote, the cost of living still topped the list at 33% (but down 6 since the start of the campaign). Healthcare is now tied with dealing with the impact of Trump but has increased by 6 points since the start of the campaign. 14% say the party best able to manage the campaign is the biggest reason for their vote followed by housing at 9% and education at 3%. So the Liberals have been successful at increasing the salience of healthcare as a ballot issue, but not to an extent that is changing the election.
Among those who say the cost of living will be their biggest vote driver, the PCs are ahead by 18 points over the Liberals. They lead by 44 points among those who say their vote is about who is best to deal with Trump and lead by 31 points among those who say managing the economy is their primary concern.
Among the 1 in 5 voters who say healthcare is their top vote driver, the Liberals lead by the PCs by 21%. More evidence that the Liberals are winning big among those who care enough about the issue and say it is their ballot box driver. The problem for the Liberals is that the size of that group isn’t sufficient to win the election.
Finally, when we ask all eligible voters which party and leader is best able to handle several issues, we find that Ford and the PCs lead by a wide margin on responding to Trump, growing the economy, reducing the cost of living, and spending tax dollars responsibly. They are also tied or slightly ahead on education and healthcare.
And so while the Liberals have been successful at making healthcare a greater issue for more people and convincing more of those people to vote Liberal, the 2025 Ontario election ends where it began – it’s about the cost of living and the economy and the impact of Trump on both of those things. And on all of those issues, the PCs lead by comfortable margins.
Advanced Modelling of the Vote
To better explain the likely outcome of the election, I ran a binary logistic regression to estimate the impact of issue ownership on a vote for the PCs. Using the questions above, I modelled the likelihood someone would vote PC based on whether they thought the PCs are best able to handle the issues. Binary logistic regression is a statistical technique that predicts the probability of one of two outcomes (e.g., “Vote PC” vs “Don’t Vote PC”) based on one or more predictor variables.
The results indicate that believing Doug Ford and the PCs were best at managing the economy, controlling costs of living, and responding to Trump’s tariffs were the strongest predictors of a PC vote. In fact, model estimates suggest that someone who believed the PCs were best able to handle all three of these issues would have around a 75% likelihood of voting PC. Spending taxpayers’ money and education also mattered, though their coefficients were somewhat smaller. Improving healthcare had borderline significance on a vote for the PCs.
In contrast, when we model out the predictors of a vote for the Liberals and Bonnie Crombie, believing they are best able to improve healthcare was the strongest predictor of a Liberal vote. Next in importance were handling the economy, managing the cost of living, and responding to Trump’s tariffs. According to the model, if a voter thought that healthcare was the only issue the Liberals were best able to handle, their probability of voting Liberal was roughly 16%. However, if the same voter also thought the Liberals were best on the economy and cost of living, their estimated probability of voting Liberal jumped to about 73%. This underscores how healthcare alone wasn’t sufficient for the Liberals to win. They also had to convince more voters that they could manage the economy and the cost of living.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “With one day until all ballots will be cast, Doug Ford and the PCs remain on track for another decisive victory. Their share of the vote has grown since our last poll, and even though the desire for change is nearing a typical danger zone for an incumbent, it hasn’t translated into enough support for the opposition.
At the same time, we see some evidence that the Liberals have made gains—particularly around healthcare—and that the NDP and Greens have lost momentum. But those shifts don’t appear big enough to reshape the outcome. Voters remain focused on issues like the cost of living and the economy, where Ford and the PCs hold a comfortable lead. Healthcare has become more important, yet not to the extent needed to dislodge the incumbent.
Ultimately, the PCs’ ability to keep attention on their strongest issues has offset the rising desire for change. With the campaign drawing to a close, it looks like Ontario is poised to send Doug Ford and the PCs back to Queen’s Park with another majority mandate.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 24 to 25, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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