Canadians and Healthcare: Satisfaction and feelings about delivery options in 2023

On behalf of the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association, Abacus Data and Spark Insights conducted a nationwide survey of 1,500 adult Canadians.  The interviewing was done online between February 20 and 25, 2023.  This is the first of a series of releases highlighting key findings from that study. More information can be sought from Susan Murray of CLHIA (SMurray@clhia.ca)  or Bruce Anderson (bruce@sparkadvocacy.ca)

THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM & PERFORMANCE OF GOVERNMENTS

Barely half (54%) of Canadians say the healthcare system is working well enough to meet their needs. Two-thirds say is it not working well enough across the country, or in their province.  Only Quebec finds a majority giving passing grades to their provincial government.

Since 2021, negative ratings for both the federal government (up 21 points to 49% poor/very poor) and provincial governments (up 15 points to 48% poor/very poor, have grown significantly.

WHAT’S WORKING WELL; WHAT’S WORKING POORLY

Canadians are most unhappy about access to specialists, long-term care, surgical care, and timely emergency room care. Negative feelings about these topics are up by more than 10 points since 2021.

Canadians are more satisfied with access to virtual care, and with the amount that they pay for prescription drugs, physiotherapy, and affordable eye care.

While a majority (60%) say their access to a family doctor is excellent or good enough, 4 in ten say the system is falling short of their needs in this area. Unhappiness with this aspect of health care is up 16 points since 2021. Alongside sharp rises in unhappiness around access to a family doctor, surgical care, long-term care, and emergency care, we also see a 17-point increase in unhappiness with access to mental health services.  Today, 49% say the system is falling short of their needs. Problems in this area are most acutely felt by younger Canadians.

PUBLIC AND NON-PUBLIC DELIVERY OF HEALTHCARE

Just under half (47%) of Canadians think that health care in Canada today is exclusively delivered by public sector organizations, while 53% perceive a blend of public and private delivery. A majority (62%) would prefer to see a blend of public and private sector delivery, “as long as costs are covered by provincial health systems or insurance coverage”.

Most (64%) Canadians access employer, group, or private insurance plans that help them with the costs of eye care, prescriptions, dental care, and other health services: 41% have a workplace plan, 14 % have another form of group plan, and 9% purchase insurance privately.

90% believe these insurance plans represent an example of private sector involvement in health care that has been a positive for Canada. Even 90% of those who don’t have access to such plans believe they have been a positive for Canada.

88% of those who have a benefits plan place either a great deal of value (46%) or quite a bit of value (42%) on having access to that plan. The average plan user estimates that their plan saved their household $913 in prescription drug costs last year, $816 in dental care costs, and $339 in eye care costs.

A large majority (81%) feel it is a positive to have privately run health clinics where people can see doctors and have procedures done provided they do not pay out of pocket. A smaller majority (59%) say private clinics where “people can pay out of pocket if they want to have a medical procedure in a timelier fashion” is a positive development in Canadian health care.

This open-mindedness towards delivery innovation is because of the acute sense that things need to improve.  A majority feel “I want politicians to make sure health care is available and free to me and am willing to consider all ideas that help this happen”.

SUMMARY

Many Canadians are finding the healthcare system is failing to meet current needs. Opinions have deteriorated sharply, and pressure is evident both on the federal and provincial levels of government. Surgeries, ER care, long-term care, and mental health supports are among the most acute areas of public discontent.

People want health system improvement and this means that they are more open to non-public delivery alternatives than might have been the case in the past.  They want policymakers to be open to innovations as well.  Workplace or group insurance is already experienced by many as an effective way for private sector organizations to help people get the health services they need affordably.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

Budget Politics: Why the federal budget matters so much to Liberal electorate fortunes.

On Tuesday, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will table the federal government’s budget, and the stakes could not be higher for the government.

Public assessments of the government’s performance and how they feel about the Prime Minister haven’t been much lower than they are today. Despite this, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in our latest measure of vote intention.

In our most recent national omnibus survey conducted from March 17 to 21, I asked 1,963 adults a few questions to gauge their economic outlook and how they feel about the government’s performance on a series of economic, fiscal, and pocketbook issues. The results suggest a very challenging opinion environment – one that I think the government and the Prime Minister desperately need to shift.

Here’s what I’m seeing:

The overall economic outlook isn’t that bad right now, but it’s not great either. When we ask Canadians to estimate whether the economy will improve, get worse, or stay about the same over the next 12 months, almost half think it is going to get worse but only 15% say it will get a lot worse. About 1 in 4 are optimistic things will improve over that time period.

Government Strengths and Weaknesses?

When we ask Canadians to evaluate the performance of the federal government and the Prime Minister in several areas, the government gets fairly good grades for its handling of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for representing the country internationally, and for working with the provinces. In each of those, half or more feel the government’s performance is at least acceptable.

It gets what I feel are middling grades for running an ethical government, managing the economy, and responding to the crisis in healthcare. On these, about 4 in 10 feel the government is doing at least an acceptable job.

But on two items in particular, the government is seen as severely underperforming – addressing the rising cost of living and making housing more affordable and accessible. On both, about 1 in 4 think the government is doing ok or better while two-thirds think it’s doing a poor or terrible job.

Even among 2021 Liberal voters, the cost of living and housing are challenging issues for the government. 4 in 10 past Liberal voters say the government isn’t doing even acceptably on those issues.

Part of the problem facing the government right now is its lack of narrative – especially an economic one. Case in point, when we ask Canadians whether they agree or disagree that “the federal government has a clear economic plan to grow the economy” only 23% agree, including 4% who strongly agree. In contrast, 42% disagree, 22% neither agree nor disagree and 13% are unsure.

I wish I had comparable data from previous years or previous governments, but these numbers feel low. If I was advising the Finance Minister, having only 1 in 4 people inclined to think you have a clear plan to grow the economy is a problem, and a serious liability, especially when people are feeling anxious and uncertain about the economy right now.

But the crosstabs provide even more concern. For example, those in vote-rich Ontario and Quebec are no more likely to think the government has a clear plan than those in other regions. And only 51% of Liberal supporters, those who say they would vote Liberal today, think the government has a clear economic plan.

But it gets worse for the Liberals…

When we ask all Canadians which party they feel will do best on several issues, the Liberals only have a slight advantage on one – dealing with climate change and the environment. Even when it comes to “making childcare affordable” – an issue that dominated the 2021 federal budget – the Liberals are basically tied with the NDP and only 7-points ahead of the Conservatives.

On EVERY economic and pocketbook issue, the Conservatives have a clear advantage over the Liberals. And a reminder, this is the same poll that found the Liberals only 2 points behind the Conservatives in voting intention.

The Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by:

  • 13 on managing the economy.
  • 19 on keeping taxes low
  • 15 on keeping interest rates as low as possible
  • 11 on addressing the rising cost of living
  • 7 on creating good-paying jobs
  • 6 on protecting pensions and retirement security

The Upshot

These results underscore both the weakness of the Liberal government’s brand on economic issues and the opportunity it has in this budget to start to move these numbers.

One budget alone won’t fix the problem, but if the government uses it as an opportunity to start talking about pocketbook issues and the economy more, they may be able to reverse some of these numbers.

I think the problem is one of empathy and clarity. The federal government and its senior leaders aren’t connecting with people and empathizing with their day-to-day struggles. And there hasn’t been a clear economic narrative that people recall. With only 23% of Canadians believing the government has a clear economic plan, the budget presents an opportunity for the Liberal government to articulate its vision for economic growth and stability. Demonstrating a coherent strategy to address Canadians’ economic anxieties could help regain public trust.

Yes, the Conservatives have a natural advantage on economic issues. But it hasn’t always been that way. Tomorrow’s budget will either demonstrate a shift in strategy and approach, or it will reinforce what people already think.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,963 Canadian adults from March 17 to 21, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian Politics

Mr. Biden Comes to Ottawa: Canadians on the Canada/US Relationship, Joe Biden, and More

From March 17 to 21, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,963 adults exploring several topics related to current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this report, I report on some questions we asked about the Canada/US relationship, impressions of Joe Biden, and what Canadians want the discussions between Prime Minister Trudeau and President Biden to focus on.

How would you describe the relationship between Canada and the United States?

Canadians generally believe that there is a close relationship between Canada and the United but views are mixed. About half say Canada and the US are best (6%) or close friends (46%) while about 1 in 3 say the two countries are more like acquaintances (37%). 4% describe them as rivals, no one says they are enemies, while 7% are unsure.

There is little variation across the country or among different political groups.

Most think PM Trudeau has done as well as should be expected in managing the relationship with the US

Generally speaking, Canadians have a positive impression on how Prime Minister has managed the relationship with the US. 56% think he and the government have handled managing the relationship as well as should be expected, 5% think he’s done better than should be expected while 24% think he’s done worse than should be expected. Views are fairly consistent across the country. Conservative supporters are more split than others, but 44% think he’s done as well as should be expected. International relations and representing Canada internationally is one of the areas that Canadians consistently believe the Prime Minister performs well.

How do Canadians feel about President Biden?

Views about Joe Biden are mixed in Canada. 30% of Canadians have a positive impression, 32% have a negative impression and 33% have a neutral impression. Those in the Prairies tend to have more negative views while Quebecers have the most positive impression of the US President. Half of  Liberal supporters have a positive view while only 15% of Conservatives have a positive view.

What do Canadians want Trudeau and Biden to focus on?

When shown a list of things that Biden and Trudeau could focus on while they meet in Ottawa and asked to select two, half of Canadians want them to focus on improving trade and economic integration between the two countries, 36% want the focus to be on climate change and the environment while another 36% want them to discuss border issues including asylum seekers crossing the Canada-US border. 29% selected dealing with China as a priority while another 24% selected responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and fighting against rising authoritarianism around the world respectively.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “Most Canadians continue to feel a close kinship with the United States and see their country as close friends of the United States. But this view isn’t universal. Many also feel the United States is simply an acquaintance of Canada, perhaps a reflection of the buy-American, America-first orientation of administrations over the past several years. Joe Biden comes to Ottawa not loved, but not hated either. Political orientation in Canada is strongly related to how people feel. Most Canadians think Justin Trudeau has handed Canada’s relationship with the United as well as should be expected, a bright spot in an otherwise difficult opinion environment for the Prime Minister and the Liberals. Biden’s visit to Ottawa presents an opportunity for the Prime Minister to focus attention away from domestic economic challenges and the election interference story that has dominated discussions and debate in federal politics for weeks now.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,963 Canadian adults from March 17 to 21, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian PoliticsInternational Affairs

Conservative lead down to 2 over the Liberals, new Abacus Data poll

From March 17 to 21, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,963 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Expect releases on Biden’s visit to Ottawa (out tomorrow), David Johnston’s appointment (out Friday), and a pre-budget review of public opinion about the economy and the Trudeau government’s handling of fiscal and economic policy out early next week.

In this analysis, I update our regular tracking of opinions and attitudes toward Canadian politics

Conservatives and Liberals are now statistically tied.

If an election was held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives would get 33% of the vote (down 1 since our last survey), the Liberals would get 31% (up 2) and the NDP is in third at 18% (down 1). The BQ is at 8% nationally, the People’s Party at 5% and the Greens at 4%.

Since mid-February, Conservative support among committed voters is down 4 points while the Liberal vote is up slightly. This is the small Conservative lead since August of last year.

Regionally, the Conservatives have a slight lead in BC and a large lead in the Prairies. The Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in Ontario while the Liberals and BQ are statistically tied in Quebec.  Liberal support in Quebec is up 9 points over the past month. while the Conservatives are down six. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have a 9-point lead over the Conservatives.

The Liberals have opened up a large 12-point lead among those under 30 while the Conservatives have a 10-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. The two main parties are statistically tied among those aged 30 to 44 and those 60 and over.

We find no gender gap in vote intentions except for the NDP. The NDP vote share is 5 points larger among women than men.

What might be driving this shift in vote intentions?

We don’t see any real movement in the mood of the public.

30% believe the country is headed in the right direction, at or near the lowest point for several years.

The federal government’s approval rating hasn’t changed much either. Today 33% approve while 49% disapprove, marginal changes from our last survey and consistent with what we have seen for several months now.

We also don’t see much shift in perceptions of the main party leaders.

Impressions of the party leaders are steady as well.

  • Justin Trudeau: 30% positive (-1) vs. 49% negative (-2) = -19 net
  • Pierre Poilievre: 29% positive (-2) vs. 36% negative (NC) = -7 net
  • Jagmeet Singh: 36% positive (NC) vs. 30% negative (NC) = +6 net

Even when we measure the electorate’s desire for change we don’t see much change although there has been a slight increase (2 points) in those who say they definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected. Today 51% definitely want to see a change in government while another 25% want change but say it’s not important to them. In contrast, 14% definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected while 12% want to keep the Liberals in power, but say it’s not that important to them.

Part of the answer for why there has been a shift in national vote intentions despite most of our other metrics holding steady lies in a crosstab between this question and vote intention.

Since February 2023, when the Conservatives had an 8-point lead in our tracking, their share of the vote among those who definitely want change is down 5 points as it is among those who want change but say it’s not that important to them. In both groups, the Liberal share of the vote is up (2 and 4 points respectively). At the same time, the Liberal vote share among those who definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected is up 6 (even as that group grew only 1 point in size).

The implication of this is clear: Despite an opinion environment that remains very challenging for the Liberals, the Conservatives have done little to consolidate the “change vote”. In fact, they have taken a step backward over the past month. The Conservatives have been successful at keeping “Trudeau haters” and its base motivated. But in doing so, it may have weakened its relationship with the 1 in 4 voters who say they want change, but aren’t that motivated or excited about it happening. Either they have to move more of these folks into the “definitely want change” group or they need to find a way to appeal to people who wouldn’t mind change but need a safe alternative to gravitate to. So long as there is a sizeable soft change group in the electorate and the Liberals are competitive with it, they are still in the game. You can read additional analysis on what I see as the Conservative Party’s three paths to victory over at my personal analysis site and newsletter inFocus with David Coletto (please subscribe!).

Another area to explore is possible shifts from vote choice in 2021 to vote intention today. I use the two same points in time to compare (February 2023 – when the Conservatives led by 8 and today’s survey, which has the Conservatives ahead by 2).

When we look at the charts below, three things jump out at me. First, the Liberal vote from 2021 to today is consistent at both points in time. 85% of past Liberal supporters said they would vote Liberal in February 2023. Today, that number is 84%. So while losing 16% of you past vote isn’t insignificant, it’s at least holding over time.

The second is the drop in Conservative loyalty. Back in February, 93% of past CPC voters said they would vote Conservative again. That’s now down 6 points to 87%. The Liberals have benefited the most from this vote churn – gaining 6% of these past Conservative voters.

Finally, look at the People’s Party of Canada lines. In February, more than 1 in 3 past PPC voters said they would now vote Conservative. That’s down to 19% today. Now, we are dealing with smaller sample sizes but that shift is still outside the comparable margin of error meaning something is happening.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “In just over a month, an 8-point Conservative lead has become a marginal 2-point lead. The Liberals are up slightly but the Conservative vote share is down 4 points in over a month.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau, the government generally, or even the direction of the country have not improved nor have impressions of Pierre Poilievre gotten worse over this period.

But it does seem that some past Conservative voters are being turned off by what the Conservatives and Poilievre are doing or saying and past People Party supporters who earlier were defecting to the Conservatives may be returning home.

If this is in fact happening, this is the worst-case scenario for the Conservatives – alienating both the centre and the right wings of your coalition is not how you win an election. I’ll keep monitoring this to see if it continues.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,963 Canadian adults from March 17 to 21, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.



Canadian Politics

Join Abacus Data as a Consultant / Senior Consultant

Location:
Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa & Toronto. A team member can be based anywhere in Canada but preference will be given to candidates who can commute to the location at least once a week.

Compensation:
Salary: $70,000 to $85,000 is typical for this role, however the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
Annual performance bonus based on overall performance of the company.
Generous marketing bonus for all new business development.

Expected start date:
As early as April 2023, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.

The opportunity:
At Abacus Data, a premier Canadian public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our research team.

In this role, you will work closely with the firm’s executive team to help service the firm’s growing roster of public and private sector clients, with abundant opportunities to take on clients on your own & job craft a research specialization as the company grows.

In the immediate term, this role will see you work on research files both independently and with the supervision of a senior lead, acting as the principal author & project manager of Abacus’ custom research survey projects.

In more technical terms, this role will be responsible for assisting team leads in managing client relationships, overseeing the survey fielding & reporting process, and writing compelling, timely and strategic research reports based on public opinion survey results.

Responsibilities:
Work closely with the CEO, Executive Vice President, and Director level team leads to design & analyze the results of public opinion research surveys.
Liaise with the fielding & analytics team to ensure surveys are being programmed & graphically reported according to client & firm expectations.
Write high-quality analysis prose reports for our clients that is error-free, valuable, and meets the standards of our leadership team.
Manage other day to day responsibilities of research projects as directed by the senior team, including client consultation, proposal development, creation of research instruments, analysis, and presentation of final deliverables.

Requirements:
Some of our most successful hires have come into research roles from adjacent public affairs careers or other non-research backgrounds. Please do not hesitate to reach out & apply even if you do not meet all criteria below.

  • 3 to 7 years of experience in a research role designing, executing and analyzing public opinion research projects.
  • Experience analyzing data and helping clients use data to make decisions.
  • An analytical mind that is excited about telling stories using data and research.
  • Clear evidence of being detail-oriented with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
  • Able to create stunning presentations that tell the story in our data to our clients and potential clients.
  • Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem-solving, and communication skills
  • Ability to work with minimal supervision.
  • University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
  • Must be legally eligible to work in Canada

Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement, but an asset.

Apply by April 3rd at 5pm ET.

If you think you’re the right candidate for this task, please send a cover letter and CV to Ihor Korbabicz at ihor@stagesite.abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 858395 – Consultant/Senior Consultant” in the subject line. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.

About Abacus Data Inc.
We are the only firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threats of generational change and technological disruption.

Founded in 2010, Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We work with brands and organizations such as Shaw Communications, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Mining Association of Canada, Food & Consumer Products of Canada, NAV Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association, Teck, Imperial Oil, Nestle Waters, Google, the Air Canada Pilots Association, NUPGE, HealthPartners, the Paramedic Association of Canada, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and the Canadian Health Food Association.

Our vision is to be Canada’s premier data-based strategy firm with a reputation for outstanding customer service, creative thinking, and innovative methods. We will do that by working harder, being more creative, delivering more value to our clients, while doing it all with a smile.

For more information about Abacus Data, visit our website at abacusdata.ca.





      

        

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                A Deep Dive on Canadian Political Attitudes: Chinese election interference & the Liberal/NDP Agreement              
            


            

              
            


            

              
From March 2 to 4, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,600 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.


Note, this survey was completed prior to the Prime Minister’s announcement on Monday evening and comments by opposition party leaders and MPs in response.


In this report, I report on several topics:


    

  • Views on possible Chinese interference in Canadian federal election and support for a public inquiry.
    • 

  • Impression of the Liberal/NDP Confidence and Supply Agreement as it approaches its one-year anniversary.
    • 

  • An update to our regular tracking of vote intentions and impressions of political leaders and other issues.
    • 



Chinese Government Interference in Canadian Elections


As of last Saturday, just over eight in ten Canadians said they had heard about the news regarding possible Chinese government interference in Canadian federal elections. Eight percent are following the story very closely while another 25% say they are following it pretty closely. Compared with other issues we have asked similar questions about, this is a higher-than-normal level of awareness, but not a high degree of engagement on the issue.




Overall, 44% of Canadians believe the Chinese government was actively trying to influence the outcome of the 2021 election. 18% don’t believe it was happening while 37% are unsure. Almost all of those following the issue closely believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the election.




In a follow-up question to those who believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the election, we asked whether that interference changed the outcome of the election or not.


When we combine responses to this question with the original question we find that:


    

  • 37% of Canadians are unsure whether the Chinese government interfered in the 2021 federal election
    • 

  • 18% of Canadians believe the Chinese government did not try to influence the 2021 federal election.
    • 

  • 19% believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the outcome but that the Liberals would have won the election anyway, whether the Chinese interfered in the election or not.
    • 

  • 13% believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the outcome and the election outcome was changed. Another party would have won the election had the Chinese not interfered in the election.
    • 

  • 12% believe the Chinese government was trying to influence the outcome but are unsure where it changed the election outcome.
    • 



Not surprisingly, those who are following the issue more closely have more definitive views on the impact of that interference on the election outcome but even about 1 in 3 are uncertain about the impact of possible election interference.




When we look at these results through a partisan lens, we find that 1 in 4 Conservative voters in 2021 believe the Chinese government tried to influence the outcome of the 2021 election, and another party would have won had it not interfered.




Finally, we asked people if they thought the Prime Minister should call a public inquiry to investigate this issue further. Note, this was asked before the announcement on Monday.


There is widespread support for an inquiry, little opposition, and Liberal voters are as likely as Conservatives ones to support an inquiry.




Liberal-NDP Confidence and Supply Agreement


We also asked Canadians their views on the Liberal-NDP Confidence and Supply agreement as it approaches its one-year anniversary. Be sure to listen to Althia Raj’s podcast where the topic is explored in far more detail.


Today, 1 in 3 Canadians had not heard about the agreement before we asked about it in our survey.


Overall, 42% believe the agreement has been a good thing for Canada while 29% feel it has been a bad thing. 17% say it’s had no impact. These results align with Canadians’ expectations about the deal in a survey we completed a year ago.




Views about the deal are strongly correlated to party support. 71% of Liberal supporters and 66% of NDP supporters think the agreement has been a good thing for Canada. Green and BQ supporters hold more mixed views while Conservative and People’s Party supporters generally think the deal has been bad for Canada.




When asked whether the NDP should continue to support the deal it has with the Liberals and prevent an early election or whether the NDP should end the deal even if it means forcing an early election, Canadians are pretty split. 53% want the deal to continue while 47% want it to end.


Again, partisanship plays a big role in determining one’s view on the matter. 85% of Liberal supporters want the deal to continue while 81% of Conservative supporters want it to end.


Among NDP supporters, 68% want the deal to continue while 32% want it to end.




Given all the news and events in the past few weeks, has the political opinion environment in Canada changed?


The short answer is no.


If an election was held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives would get 36% of the vote with the Liberals seven points back at 29%. The NDP is in third at 18%. Compared with our last survey, there has been almost no change in vote intention.







Among all Canadians (not just those committed to voting for one party), 29% would vote Conservative, 24% Liberal, and 15% for the NDP. 18% of Canadians are undecided at this time.




Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Ontario and Atlantic Canada while in Quebec, the BQ is ahead by 8 points over the Liberals.




Beyond vote intention, other indicators are also fairly steady since last month.


The overall mood of the country looks similar to what it’s been for the past five months. The mood remains quite negative with only 31% feel the country is headed in the right direction.




The federal government’s approval rating is steady as well with 35% approving and 49% disapproving representing only a marginal one-point change since last month.




Impressions of the party leaders, except for Jagmeet Singh, are steady as well.


    

  • Justin Trudeau: 31% positive (-1) vs. 49% negative (+1) = -18 net
    • 

  • Pierre Poilievre: 30% positive (-1) vs. 36% negative (+1) = -6 net
    • 

  • Jagmeet Singh: 38% positive (+4) vs. 30% negative (-1) = +8 net
    • 



  


Even when we measure the electorate’s desire for change we don’t see much change although the desire for change remains elevated than what it was at the end of either the 2019 or 2021 election campaigns.


Today 49% definitely want to see a change in government while another 25% want change but say it’s not important to them. In contrast, 14% definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected while 12% want to keep the Liberals in power, but say it’s not that important to them.




UPSHOT


According to David Coletto: “Although the Chinese election interference story has gained wide public awareness, not many people are closely following it. While there is more interest and engagement than usual for national political stories, the majority of Canadians have not yet become engaged in the topic.


Furthermore, the story has left many Canadians feeling confused and uncertain about the situation, which is not surprising given that much of the information available is based on leaked intelligence reports and incomplete accounts of what is known. Despite this, there is strong public support for a public inquiry, which may put additional pressure on the federal government and the Prime Minister to expand the investigations they have already initiated.


However, so far, these events have not had any significant impact on public opinion about politics or political choices. There has been no shift in vote intentions, impressions of the party leaders, or the general desire for change. This may change if more news comes to light, but currently, it seems that while the public is concerned about possible interference in elections, it has not altered their views of the political options available. The Conservative Party continues to have an advantage, while the Liberal Party continues to face its most challenging opinion environment since being elected in 2015.”


METHODOLOGY


The survey was conducted with 2,600 Canadian adults from March 2 to 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.


The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.


The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.


Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/




ABOUT ABACUS DATA


We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.


We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.


We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.


Contact us with any questions.


Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.













      

        

          Canadian PoliticsInternational Affairs        

      

    
            


          

                  


            

              
                She/Her/Hers: Women still saddled with traditional gender roles, even as they break through the glass ceiling              
            


            

              
            


            

              
The Inaugural Syndicated Study of Women in Canada


At Abacus Data, we are committed to understanding how Canadian attitudes, behaviours, and perceptions vary across the demographic spectrum. Through our ongoing Canadian Millennials Study we’ve been able to help the general public, government, non-profits, and private companies understand how generational change and technological disruption are reshaping the Canadian public opinion landscape.


Following the findings of some of our latest research, we felt it was high time to bring this kind of rigour to explore how the lived experiences of Canadians, their behaviours, and attitudes are gendered. Today, we are proud to release some of the most fascinating insights from the inaugural fielding of our She/Her/Hers research practice, a biannual syndicated study of 2,000 Canadian women and 500 Canadian men.


The study explores a range of subject areas that inform what it’s like being a Canadian woman today – from home life, work life, finances, and consumer behaviour. Below are some of the study’s key findings. For more on the data please reach out to Oksana and for inquiries related to the purchase of the syndicated study please reach out to Yvonne.


Before we got into specifics, we asked respondents to sum up, in a word, what it’s like being a woman today. Their responses reflect a lot of the trends we see in the survey results.


The most common word to describe what it’s like being a woman today is ‘hard’. Women also feel ‘empowered’ and more ‘independent’, which reflects some of the major institutional hurdles overcome in the last several decades.




While there may be fewer systemic barriers for women to circumvent, there are still other challenges that persist. Workforce participation has soared amongst women over the past several decades and women now have more financial freedom to exercise purchasing power in the consumer space but social pressures, stereotypes, and stigma are still prevalent and prevent women from reaching true equity.


One of the key takeaways from the She/Her/Hers study is just how many of these stereotypes and historically ‘pink tasks’ Canadian women are still carrying with them, even as they break through the glass ceiling.


WOMEN AT HOME


Women are still largely responsible for work in the home such as cooking, cleaning, grocery shopping and parenting responsibilities. Over half of women who live with a partner say they are responsible for the majority of the cooking, cleaning, grocery shopping and (if they have kids) parenting responsibilities. This holds true even among women who are the primary income earners of their household.




Women say tasks like paying bills and financial planning are more evenly split but home maintenance tasks are more likely to be the left for their partners.


Women also report doing more emotional labour in the household. 72% of women say they are the default partner responsible for remembering birthdays and maintaining a healthy social calendar in their relationship. 61% carry the majority of the mental load of tasks (meaning while their partner may grocery shop or take care of home maintenance, they are responsible for knowing when and what needs to be done for these tasks).




WOMEN IN THE WORKPLACE


Given the uneven distribution of emotional labour in a domestic setting, it is no surprise that these responsibilities in the workplace also tend to fall to women. 42% of women say they are asked to take on social tasks like birthday cards and planning social events more frequently than their male counterparts. 41% of women say they are asked to take notes in a meeting more frequently than their male counterparts.  




Taking on the burden of these tasks means women have less time and are given less support to take on responsibilities that might help them climb the corporate ladder. Increased workforce participation has been an important step towards achieving gender equity in recent years but the nature of and compensation for that participation still remains unequal.



WOMEN AND FINANCES


Amongst women in relationships, financial planning is increasingly a shared responsibility among partners. That being said, our findings indicate there is still room for improvement on women’s self-reported financial literacy across several key investment vehicles including the stock market, real estate, and retirement planning. Only 28% of women say they are very comfortable with money management – 8 points lower than men.


Women can access financial tools like credits cards (albeit not until 1974), and savings vehicles just the same as men, but feel much less confident in their knowledge of these financial tools. Women are much less knowledgeable (self-reported) than men on many key components of building wealth and financial stability.




Women are equally as likely as men to have a financial advisor, but still turn to their partner for a large portion of their financial advice. Additionally, 29% of women say a lot of the products they are interested in seem to ignore women. By 2024, it is expected that 50% of the privately held wealth in Canada will be that of women. Canadian women are waiting for businesses and financial services institutions to take this reality seriously.


THE UPSHOT


According to Oksana


In our inaugural She/Her/Hers study we collected a wide range of data on many topics, but one trend stood out for me throughout. Women are being given more opportunities, responsibilities and power, but are still being disproportionately saddled with domestic and emotional labour. Greater participation in the workforce is a good thing, but if women are still carrying the bulk of the cooking and cleaning, have we really reached equality? We know that women can be equal players in all spaces (the boardroom, the home, the voting booth, the store…), so it’s time that women be invited to contribute, or better yet take the lead, instead of inviting women in just to sit in the corner and take notes.


According to Yvonne


I was eager to explore the gendered dynamics of Canadian life because many of my personal experiences seeking financial services, car shopping, and getting medical advice felt unequal. Our first She/Her/Hers study has clearly demonstrated that I’m not alone and many women feel ill-served by advertisers, excluded from pathways to improved financial literacy, and discriminated against at the mechanic. I look forward to digging deeper into these findings in the weeks to come and taking an intersectional lens to the data to explore how women of different age, race, income, and political stripe experience life at home, at work, at the bank, and more.


METHODOLOGY


The survey was conducted with 2,500 Canadian adults (2,000 Canadian women and 500 Canadian men) from February 9 to 16, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.


The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.96%, 19 times out of 20.


The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


This data represents just a fraction of our findings from the inaugural She/Her/Hers study, which encompasses a wide range of topics like women at home, women in the workplace, women and finances, women as consumers and women’s health. If you are interested in purchasing the full study or a specific section thereof, please contact our Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Yvonne Langen.


For media inquiries please contact the lead researcher on the She/Her/Hers Study, Director of Strategy and Insights, Oksana Kishchuk.




ABOUT ABACUS DATA


We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.


We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.


We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.


Contact us with any questions.


Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.


      

        

          Women        

      

    
            


          

                  


            

              
                Ontario Politics: PCs lead by 13 as the public reacts to the story about the Ford family stag-and-doe and wedding              
            


            

              
            


            

              
From March 2 to 4, 2023, Abacus Data surveyed 1,000 Ontario adults and asked them about their views and intentions as they relate to Ontario provincial politics.


Here’s what we found:


The PCs lead the Ontario Liberals by 13 points, with the NDP back in third.


If a provincial election was held at the time of the survey, the PC Party would get 41% of the vote, followed by the Ontario Liberals at 28%, the Ontario NDP at 22%, and the Ontario Green Party at 5%. Compared with our last survey conducted in November 2022, the PCs are up 3, the Liberal vote is up marginally by 1 point and the NDP is down 4.


Note, our last survey was completed in the middle of the controversy surrounding the work action of education workers in Ontario and the provincial government’s pre-emptive use of the Notwithstanding Clause to force workers to stay on the job.




Regionally, the PCs are ahead in every region outside of Metro Toronto, with large leads in the GTHA (15 points), eastern Ontario (21 points), and the southwest (11 points). In Metro Toronto, the Liberals and PCs are statistically tied.


The PCs have a 20-point lead among men and a 7-point lead among women and lead in all age groups except for those under 30.




Since November 2022, impressions of Doug Ford have improved. 


Today, 34% have a positive impression of the Premier (up 5 points) while 43% have a negative impression (down 2). 19% say their view is neutral while 4% are unsure.




We also asked about impressions of new NDP leader Marit Stiles. About equal numbers have a positive and negative impression with most saying they either have a neutral view (27%) or don’t know enough about her to say (38%).


When asked their view about some possible OLP leadership candidates (at the time it wasn’t clear the Bonnie Cromie might be interested, so we didn’t ask about her), all four individuals we tested have quite similar province-wide images. Most people either don’t know the individuals or have a neutral view.




While most Ontarians are aware of the story involving the Ford family and developers at a stag-and-doe and wedding this past summer, only 1 in 4 are following news about it closely. 





When told about the story and asked whether it makes them feel more positive or more negative about Premier Ford, 8% say they feel more positive about him while 50% say they feel less positive. Those who are following the issue closely are more likely to react negatively.


Among those who said they voted PC in 2022, 70% say their impression is either more positive or it has had no impact while 30% say their impressions have become more negative, including 10% who say much more negative.




When asked specifically about their view on the provincial government’s plan to open up land in the Greenbelt for housing development, 22% support the plan, 49% oppose it and 29% say they neither support nor oppose it. About 1 in 3 of PC voters say they are opposed to the plan while a majority of Liberal and NDP supporters say they are opposed.




UPSHOT


Despite the conflict of interest allegations swirling around the Premier and his family, there doesn’t appear to have been much impact on the Premier’s image or support for the PC government. If an election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government. So far, almost all of the PC coalition is holding together and despite some PC voters feeling uncomfortable with the allegations, they don’t seem to be persuaded that the PCs and Doug Ford don’t deserve their support again.


As the Liberals get set to select a new leader, some of the possible candidates start with little province-wide name recognition – which is often the case for candidates running to lead a provincial party.


For the NDP, Marit Stiles begins her time as NDP leader with very much a blank slate. She’s not viewed negatively, which is a plus, but she’s also largely unknown. She’s a blank canvas to most people in the province.


The survey underscores both the resilience of Doug Ford and the potential risk if these allegations escalate and the development of parts of the Greenbelt becomes more salient. Right now, the Premier and the PCs are weathering this storm.


METHODOLOGY


The survey was conducted with 1,000 Ontario residents aged 18 and over on March 2 to 4, 2023.


A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.


The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.


The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, education, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


This study was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.


ABOUT ABACUS DATA


We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.


We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.


We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.


Contact us with any questions.


Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.











      

        

          Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics        

      

    
            


          

                  


            

              
                Alberta Politics: UCP and NDP tied as undecideds rise              
            


            

              
            


            

              
Last week, Abacus Data surveyed 700 adults living in Alberta and asked them several questions about their views and intentions as the provincial election approaches.


Here are the key takeaways from this research:


1 – The UCP and NDP are tied province-wide as undecideds increase.


35% of Albertans would vote UCP (down 5), 35% would vote NDP (down 3) and 5% would vote for the Alberta Party. 22% say they are undecided, up 6-points since February.




2- The UCP and NDP are tied among committed respondents – 45% to 45%.


The UCP vote share among committed voters is down 2 while the NDP vote share is consistent with our survey last month.




3 – The NDP and UCP are statistically tied in Calgary, the NDP is ahead by 19-points in Edmonton, while the UCP leads by 14-points outside of the two largest cities.




4- The NDP lead among those under 45 and women while the UCP is ahead among those 45 and old and men.




5 – There’s been a big increase in former UCP supporters who now say they are undecided. Among 2019 UCP voters, 65% say they would vote UCP today, 12% would vote NDP, and 20% are currently undecided.




6 – The percentage of Reluctant UCP voters – those who voted UCP in 2019 but today say they are supporting another party or are undecided – is up 3-points while those who are loyal to the UCP are down 3 percentage points.





7 – Impressions of Danielle Smith are largely unchanged from last month. 37% have a positive view of the Premier while 40% have a negative impression. For NDP leader Rachel Notley, her net favourable has declined. 39% have a favourable view of the NDP leader (down 4) while her negatives are up 2 to 39%.


  


THE UPSHOT


Since last month, the political landscape in Alberta hasn’t changed much but we do see a noticeable shift back towards the undecided category for many past UCP voters.


The NDP vote share is holding steady but we continue to see volatility among past UCP voters. Those Reluctant UCPers will decide the outcome of the provincial election.


METHODOLOGY


The survey was conducted with 700 Alberta adults from March 2 to 4, 2023.


A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.


The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.8%, 19 times out of 20.


The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.


Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/


ABOUT DAVID COLETTO


David Coletto is CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.


He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.






ABOUT ABACUS DATA


We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.


We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.


We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.


Contact us with any questions.


Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.


      

        

          MediaPolls        

      

    
            


          

                  


            

              
                Some Perspective and Deeper Polling Analysis on the “Canada Feels Broken” Framing              
            


            

              
            


            

              
The whole “Canada feels broken” framing and the ensuing debate had us wondering whether Canadians are so down on the state of their country and whether there was any nuance on the subject. Luckily, David owns a polling firm and so we could dig a bit deeper into public attitudes about the subject.


Our hypothesis is that while many Canadians feel that Canada is broken, not all of them who do, blame government decisions for the state of the world. Why? We have just lived through an almost three-year global pandemic. Putin invaded Ukraine a year ago, causing energy and food prices to spike. The shortage economy – gripping most parts of the world – defined by supply chain shortages, a tight labour market, and general burnout among many workers is making life harder.


So we wanted to explore how Canadians are feeling in more depth, building off the work that Oksana and David did looking at the consumer mindset in Canada a few weeks ago.


A few questions we wanted to answer include:


    

  • Do Canadians think Canada has a good reputation globally? Would they rather live in Canada than elsewhere at the moment?
    • 

  • What are the specific pain points in the system that are causing Canadians anxiety?
    • 

  • Do people feel what’s broken is being caused by global factors or government decisions?
    • 

  • Do Canadians think Canada is better off or worse off than countries similar to it?
    • 



We just finished a national survey of 4,000 Canadian adults on Saturday, conducted online with a representative sample. In it, we dug a bit deeper into the whole “Canada feels broken” feeling.


We find that the analysis of public opinion right now is far more complicated and nuanced than the analysis about it has been so far.


Here’s what we found:


More Canadians are dissatisfied with how things are going in Canada. 1 in 3 Canadians is satisfied with the way things are going in Canada. 47% are dissatisfied. Few are very satisfied. This isn’t much different than the right direction/wrong track question pollsters (including us) often ask. People are feeling unhappy, grumpy, and anxious about the world. Whether it’s inflation, rising interest rates, a healthcare system in crisis, or a general sense that good customer service – from government to restaurants – is harder to come by these days.




Those in the Prairies and Conservatives are more dissatisfied, federal Liberal supporters far less so. Of note, Quebecers are the least likely to say they are dissatisfied with how things are going in Canada. Interestingly, younger Canadians more positive about Canada than older Canadians.




Canadians agree that a lot in Canada feels broken, but they also agree they wouldn’t want to live anywhere else. Using experimental design (splitting the sample randomly), Canadians were asked to evaluate how three of six statements.


Large majorities agree Canada deserves to have a great reputation and Canada has a great reputation globally and 70% would rather live in Canada than any other country in the world. The public has a positive assessment of our brand despite their satisfaction level.


At the same time, 65% agree “it feels like so many things in Canada are broken” and almost as many (60%) think that things that they used to expect to work in my life are not working as well as they used to.


So, things feel broken, but Canada is still the best place to be. Half even think that “given the state of the world today, things in Canada are going pretty well.” In other words, sure the world is messed up. We are in a state of permacrisis. Some of what is not working here is a global problem.


A reminder: 65% of Canadians feel things are broken but 49% also agree that comparatively speaking, things in Canada are going ok.




What is causing friction? A lot of things.


Certainly, healthcare – 66% say it’s worse today than a few years ago. About half think air travel, government services, the education system, and customer service generally are worse today than a few years ago. In short, about half think everything isn’t going that well.


However, and this is important nuance, except for healthcare, only about 1 in 4 think those things have gotten much worse. That difference in intensity is important.




Who’s to blame?


This is a critical question – especially when trying to understand the political implications. Do Canadians think government decisions are to blame or are making things worse for Canadians?


When we look at the percentage of Canadians who agree things in their life that they usually can count on aren’t working well, almost as many blame global factors (49%) as government decisions (51%). Of course, not everyone thinks things aren’t working well. When we put the two questions together, here’s what we get…


    

  • 40% think things are working as well.
    • 

  • 28% think things aren’t as good and it’s because of global factors.
    • 

  • 32% think things aren’t as good, and it’s because of government decisions.
    • 



In other words, only about 1 in 3 Canadians feel things aren’t working and say its the government’s fault. The rest either are ok with how things are in their life or think their life is being messed up by global factors impacting everyone, everywhere.




But the political implications are important and our data suggest that if the “Canada feels broken” framing spreads, it could help the Conservatives and further harm the incumbent Liberals.


When we compare current vote intention across these three groups, we find the Liberals lead among the “global factors make my life crap” group and the “things are fine or better” group. Conservatives lead big among the “government decisions make my life crap” group.


So far though, most Canadians don’t feel that way. Yes, many feel things aren’t like they used to be – healthcare, customer service, etc. – but they aren’t universally blaming government decisions for it.


(BTW – For a full update on Canada’s political environment, visit our latest poll analysis released yesterday)





Do Canadians think Canada is better off or worse off than other comparable countries?


In many areas, half or so think worse off. But in every area – from interest rates, to economic growth, to the healthcare system – about half or more think Canada is doing better or as well as countries like Germany, France, or Japan. Most Canadians have perspective on the challenges we face and don’t think we are alone in facing them.


Once again – focus on those who say, “Canada is doing much worse than other countries”. They are the most aggrieved and upset. When we segment them out – they represent about 12% of the population or about 3.6 million people.


This group doesn’t like the federal Liberals. 72% strongly disapprove of the federal government’s performance. 70% really don’t like Justin Trudeau and only 9% of them voted Liberal in 2021 (47% voted Conservative, 10% voted People’s Party, and 19% say they didn’t vote at all). In all honesty, they probably would say Canada is broken, even if it wasn’t facing the challenges it is, because they don’t like the party or people in power.




What does all this mean?


These are certainly tough times for many people. Inflation and rising interest rates are squeezing household budgets. The healthcare system feels deeply unreliable and there’s a growing fear that social order is under threat. A lot of people are upset.


But we don’t think this data presents a picture of a population raging against the machine. Does it to you?


A lot of what we have come to expect to work consistently, does feel broken. The worse of the pandemic may be past us but in its wake, we have a shortage economy (supply chain and labour shortages), a pervasive feeling of burnout, and a very tight labour market.  With a potential recession on the horizon, most people get that things are tough but they don’t necessarily think governments have caused the problem.


They do, however, expect them to try and solve the problems and that’s where the federal government has fallen short. There simply isn’t enough empathy and consistent communication about what they are doing to make things better.


Upshot


David’s take: Canada is a great place to live. And Canadians know and feel that. But they are not naive nor uncritical. That realism can help fuel real discussions about how to fix our problems. The feeling that Canada is ‘broken’ has, however, seeped into the public discourse and risks focusing us on our emotional reactions, not the real problems.


Richard’s take: Canada is not immune from populism and it is hard not to worry that there is a deep seated potential for Canadians to get caught up in the Canada is broken narrative. While only a minority currently blame government, that minority has the potential to reshape the electoral map and party system in the forthcoming elections.


Methodology


The survey was conducted with 4,000 Canadian adults from February 9 to 18, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.


The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20.


The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.


This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.


Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/


ABOUT ABACUS DATA


We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.


We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.


We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.


Contact us with any questions.


Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.











      

        

          Canadian PoliticsPublic Policy