The Abacus Data survey was conducted with 1,500 working adults in Canada from Oct. 7 to 10, 2024. The margin of error for a comparable random sample … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/cma-calls-elimination-workplace-sick-090000794.html&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw2ilj7rMlaSgPkeWxWXk7yo
From October 17 to 22, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers. On Tuesday, we released data on how Canadians feel about Justin Trudeau’s future as Prime Minister and Liberal Leader.
Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 22 over the Liberals
If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 38% of the vote in Quebec. Any changes are clearly within the margin of error of the survey.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 23 in BC, by 49 points in Alberta, 25 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 18 points in Ontario, and by 24 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 13 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied.
Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied well back of the Conservatives who have almost half of the vote share.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.
The Conservative vote share is fairly consistent across all age groups – ranging from 42% to 46% while the Liberals have slightly more support among those aged 60+ than those under 60.
48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women. Liberal support is 5-points higher among women than it is among men while the NDP vote share is similar across both groups.
For the first time in our survey, we don’t find that the Conservatives gain a turnout boost when we factor in only those who are certain to vote. The Conservative lead is 21-points among those most motivated to vote.
The mood of the country has not changed. 25% feel the country is headed in the right direction while 63% feel it’s off on the wrong track.
The federal government’s approval rating has deteriorated slightly.
Today, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 2) while disapproval is down two points to 61%.
The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister which remain significantly more negative than positive.
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 60% (up 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -37.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been. Today 30% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 39% have a negative view for a net score of -9.
Over the previous three waves of research we noted an increase in those with a negative impression of Pierre Poilievre. This week, his negatives are down slightly (-2) while his positives are up 1. Mr. Poilievre’s net score is back into positive terrority at +4.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election continues to grow.
Just over half of Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since january, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 9-points. In contrast, 17% think the Liberals will win while 8% expect an NDP victory. 23% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The opinion environment appears to be increasingly locked in. Despite improving economic news, perceptions about the direction of the country are not improving. The government’s approval rating and impressions of the Prime Minister remains as bad as they have ever been.
Last wave, we highlighted an increase in negative impressions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. This week, that trend may have stopped as Mr. Poilievre’s net score is back in positive territory. This is expected given the amount of advertising the Conservatives are doing while their opponents spend almost nothing countering it. IN this environment, we shouldn’t expect Mr. Poilievre’s impression to change as the party reinforces positive messages while continuing to contrast with Mr. Trudeau, who most Canadians dislike.
Perhaps most concerning for the Liberals and NDP is the growing belief that the Conservatives are going to win the next election. 52% of Canadians now believe that outcome is likely to happen, up 9-points since the beginning of the year.
Despite growing belief that Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives are going to win, there hasn’t been an increase in concern or a shift in vote intentions. This suggests that right now, the prospect of a Conservative victory is not turning people away from the Conservatives.
As I’ve argued before, the Liberals won’t be able to get back into a competitive position with Mr. Trudeau as leader unless they change the way Canadians feel about him – even if views of Mr. Poilievre become more negative. The relationship between impressions of the Prime Minister and the likelihood of voting Liberal are too strong. We see no evidence that views of Mr. Trudeau have changed at all over the past year, despite everything the government has tried to do to change them.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Power Play: Will Clark run for Liberal leader? CEO of Abacus Data David Coletto says the PM has never been as unpopular as he. Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/get-away-from-your-inner-circle-liberal-mp-shocked-pm-didn-t-take-more-time-to-reflect-on-calls-to-resign-1.7087745&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw0HH-nz094yPuB68wR_Nk-E
From October 17 to 22, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,460 Canadian adults (18+) to examine their perceptions on crime and public safety. While issues like housing affordability and the cost of living dominate public discourse, the results show that crime and public safety remain key concerns for many Canadians, with most feeling that conditions are getting worse. This growing anxiety is shaping political behaviour, with many voters favouring parties that emphasize stricter enforcement policies.
Current Perspectives on Crime and Safety
The results reveal that 58% of Canadians feel the overall crime situation in the country is negative, with Conservative supporters (70%) more likely to express concern than Liberals (36%) or NDP supporters (46%). Among those who view crime negatively, 78% believe Canada is headed in the wrong direction, underscoring the role of safety in shaping broader public dissatisfaction.
Regional differences reveal distinct crime challenges across provinces. British Columbia sees high concern over drug-related offenses (59%) and organized crime (40%), while property crime is the leading issue in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62%) and Alberta (47%), with break-ins also prominent (47% in SK/MB; 39% in AB). In Ontario, vehicle theft (44%) tops the list of concerns, while organized crime (54%) is the dominant issue in Quebec.
Conditions Across the Country Are Worsening
Most Canadians believe that conditions in their communities are worsening, with more than 1 in 2 believing that most types of crime are worsening in their area. This concern is highlighted for drug-related crimes, with 57% saying the situation is deteriorating, followed closely by vehicle theft (54%) and property crime (52%).
Canadians who perceive these issues as getting worse are significantly more likely to express an intention to vote for the Conservative Party in the next federal election. This suggests that negative experiences with local crime and public safety are driving voters toward the Conservatives or that Conservative-oriented voters are more sensitive to perceptions about rising crime in their community. Either way, there is a strong correlation. In contrast, those planning to vote for the Liberal Party are less likely to report worsening conditions in their area, indicating a divergence in how voters experience and interpret local issues.
Confidence in the Government to Address Crime and Public Safety
Currently, 45% of Canadians lack confidence in the federal government’s ability to address crime and public safety effectively. Among those with low confidence, 63% plan to vote for the Conservative Party in the next election, while only 9% intend to support the Liberals. Furthermore, 64% of those lacking confidence in the government’s handling of these issues believe the overall crime situation in Canada is negative, reflecting a close link between public dissatisfaction with public safety and political preferences.
What Should We Do to Address Crime and Public Safety?
When considering what actions, the federal government should prioritize to reduce and prevent crime, 56% of Canadians support implementing stricter laws and penalties for certain offenses. Additionally, 49% emphasize improving social services to address the root causes of crime, 48% advocate for stricter bail conditions for repeat offenders, and 47% call for enhanced mental health and addiction support services. These priorities reflect a strong public desire for a comprehensive approach – balancing tougher enforcement measures with investments in social and mental health support to tackle both immediate criminal behavior and its underlying causes.
Political preferences shape distinct approaches to crime prevention. Conservative supporters emphasize enforcement, favouring stricter laws and penalties (63%), tighter bail conditions for repeat offenders (54%), bail reforms to prevent pre-trial release for serious offenders (52%), and increased funding for law enforcement (47%). In contrast, Liberal and NDP supporters focus more on support services. Liberals prioritize expanding mental health and addiction services (58%), while NDP supporters emphasize addressing root causes through social services (65%), mental health supports (61%), and community-based crime prevention initiatives (51%). These priorities reflect a divide between enforcement-driven and support-based strategies reflected across the political spectrum.
Importance of Crime and Public Safety in Voter Intent
Currently, 37% of Canadians believe Pierre Poilievre has the most effective plan to address crime and public safety, compared to 15% for Justin Trudeau and 12% for Jagmeet Singh. 30% are unsure reflect a high degree of uncertainty and an opportunity for the parties to clarify their approach and plans going forward. This belief is even stronger among those who view crime and safety in Canada negatively, with 45% of them favouring Poilievre’s plan, while only 8% support Trudeau’s and 9% support Singh’s approach.
In the lead-up to the next election, 57% of Canadians say crime and safety issues will influence their voting decisions. For comparison sake, a recent Abacus poll found 38% say climate policy will be an important factor in their vote choice.
Among those who consider crime and public safety important heading into the next election, 48% plan to vote for Pierre Poilievre, compared to 23% for Justin Trudeau and 15% for Jagmeet Singh – a trend that holds even for those who see the issue as moderately important. The three main parties are effectively tied among Canadians who say crime and safety issues will not be an important issue determining their vote.
The Upshot
While crime may not be as salient an issue right now as affordability, housing, or healthcare capacity, it’s salience has risen over the past few years. The Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made crime a central party of their narrative, emphasizing consistently how they will “stop the crime”.
Perceptions of rising crime are influencing political preferences, with voters increasingly demanding action on public safety.
For voters, the divide between enforcement and prevention reflects distinct priorities shaping political preferences. Conservative-leaning voters tend to prioritize immediate safety solutions, supporting tougher penalties, stricter bail conditions, and more law enforcement funding to address crime swiftly. In contrast, Liberal and NDP voters emphasize socially focused approaches, favouring investments in social supports, mental health services, and initiatives that target the root causes of crime.
These differing priorities suggest that voters are not just looking for crime policies – they are seeking approaches that align with their broader values and expectations for public safety. But in an environment where the fear of crime is higher, the Conservative approach seems to be finding a wider audience now and is likely reinforcing the party’s support.
Crime is unlikely to be the ballot question for most voters, but it will likely shape the perceptions and evaluations voters make of their political choice when the next federal election comes.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,460 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.56 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From October 17 to 22, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we asked Canadians their opinion on the future of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Only 1 in 5 Canadians Want Prime Minister Trudeau to Run Again. Almost Half Want Him to Resign Immediately.
Two in three Canadians want the Prime Minister to immediately resign as Prime Minister (47%), or stay on as Prime Minister but not run in the next election (21%). Only 20% want him to run in the next eleciton and stay on as Prime Minister.
Among those currently supporting the Liberals, 9% want him to resign immediately while 26% want him to stay on as Prime Minister but not run in the next election. Just over half of current Liberal supporters want the Prime Minister to run in the next election and stay on as Prime Minister.
Among those who voted Liberal in 2021, but today do not support the party, 40% want the Prime Minister to resign immediately, 32% want him to stay on as Prime Minister but not run again while only 16% want him to stay on as Prime Minister and run again.
Among those currently open to voting Liberal (accessible Liberals), only 40% want the Prime Minister to fight the next election and stay on as Prime Minister.
What should your Liberal MP do?
In the survey, we asked respondents for the first three digits of their postal code to determine which federal electoral district they live in. We then identified which people live in a constitutency currently represented by a Liberal Member of Parliament. In total, 660 respondents in our sample living in ridings currently held by a Liberal MP.
These people were asked what they would prefer their Member of Parliament to do: defend Justin Trudeau and encourage him to run again or call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.
Among Canadians who living in a Liberal seat, 57% want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again while 24% want their MP to defend him and encourage him to run again. 19% are unsure.
Specifically, among those who voted Liberal in 2021 who live in a seat currently represented by a Liberal MP, 47% want their MP to defend Justin Trudeau and encourage him to run while 39% want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.
For context, current vote intention in these Liberal held ridings is:
Conservative 42%
Liberal 25%
NDP 18%
BQ 6%
Green 5%
PPC 3%
Our usual Canadian politics tracker will be released on Sunday.
What might happen to Liberal support if Justin Trudeau resigned as Liberal Leader?
It is difficult to predict how Canadians would react to Justin Trudeau stepping down as leader because voting behaviour will depend a lot on who might replace him.
But in this survey, we wanted to understand what would happen to the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool – that is the group of people who would consider or be open to voting Liberal.
Near the beginning of every survey, we asked people whether they would consider or not consider voting Liberal. In this survey, 38% indicate they would be open to voting Liberal. This is the current Liberal Party accessible voter pool and it has been consistently in the high 30s for the past few months.
When we ask people whether they would consider voting Liberal if Justin Trudeay stepped down as Liberal leader, 43% say they would consider voting Liberal, a 5-point increase.
11% of the electorate would not consider voting Liberal today, but say they would if Justin Trudeau was not leader. The Conservative Party has 57% of the support among this group followed by 27% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 5% for the BQ.
The Liberal Party accessible voter pool increases by 5-points in Ontario, 6-points in British Columbia, and 13-points in Atlantic Canada. There is a 7-point increase among men, and 6-point increase among Millennials.
Among those who are currently accessible to the Liberals, 83% say they would remain accessible while 17% say they would no longer consider voting Liberal if Justin Trudeau stepped down.
Our usual Canadian politics tracker will be released, as usual, on Sunday. Subscribe to our newsletter to get the results to your inbox.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Just 1 in 5 Canadians want to see the Prime Minister stay on and run again. Almost half the country wants him to resign immediately while another 20% want him to stay on but not run again in the next election.
For Liberal MPs, there is widespread desire within their own constituencies to see them call for the Prime Minister to step down. Among those who voted Liberal in 2021 who currently live in Liberal ridings, 39% want their MP to call on the Prime Minister to step down.
Our data suggests that the party’s accessible voter pool would grow considerably from 38% to 43% if Trudeau stepped down. This wouldn’t solve the Liberal challenges but would at least open the door to more supporters.
Whether Prime Minister Trudeau ultimately decides to run again or not, the public believes he should not. Until there is a change in leadership, it is hard to see how the Liberals can become competitive again.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
In today’s rapidly shifting political environment, understanding public opinion is no longer a “nice-to-have”—it’s an absolute necessity. Governments and decision makers don’t just want to know how an idea or policy proposal will help you. They need to see that consumers and workers believe it will help them.
Some of the most profound understandings emerge from real people having real conversations. At Abacus Data, we use focus groups and other qualitative research techniques to go beyond the numbers, illuminating the underlying beliefs, motivations, and unmet needs that shape public opinion. This depth of understanding can help you more effectively frame messages, design policies, and influence decision-makers in today’s complex and competitive environment.
Abacus Data’s qualitative research offering—encompassing focus groups, in-depth interviews, online communities, and more—is designed to reveal the “why” behind the “what.” While quantitative surveys provide a crucial snapshot of public opinion, focus groups deliver something more nuanced and intimate: the context, reasoning, and emotional drivers behind those opinions.
In the context of public affairs, advocacy, and public policy, qualitative research can be a game-changer. From exploring how the public perceives a contentious policy proposal to identifying the narratives that resonate with key audiences, our focus groups connect the dots and uncover the real human stories at play.
We apply the same three-streams model that informs our polling work to guide our qualitative research approach:
Problem Recognition: Focus groups can reveal if the public understands the problem you are trying to address. Are people aware of the issue? Do they care about it? By hearing participants talk in their own words, we gain insights into what triggers concern and what might be missing in current messaging.
Solution Viability: Through moderated discussions, we explore whether participants believe in the feasibility and desirability of proposed solutions. Where a survey might tell you that 60% support a certain policy, a focus group can tell you why they support it—or why they might waver under pressure.
Political Will and Action: Ultimately, you need to know what will motivate people to act or influence decision-makers. Focus groups help you understand how to inspire advocacy, overcome skepticism, and build the sense of urgency needed for change.
By examining all three streams in detail, our qualitative work provides you with the insights necessary to craft messaging that resonates, identify unmet needs, and refine your advocacy or policy strategies to reflect real human perspectives.
Our process begins where all good research does: with a thorough understanding of your organization, its goals, and the context in which you operate. We start by learning about your issues, your stakeholders, and the policy or advocacy landscape in which you work. Then we design a qualitative research plan tailored to your needs:
Participant Recruitment: We identify and recruit individuals who represent the audiences you need to understand—be it swing voters, key stakeholders, or members of specific communities. Our carefully screened participants bring authentic voices to the table, reflecting the real-world conditions and opinions you aim to influence.
Discussion Guide Design: Unlike a rigid survey, a focus group is guided by a strategic, flexible framework. We create a discussion guide that targets your key questions, while allowing room for participants to express unexpected thoughts. This ensures you get both the answers you anticipate and the surprises that may prove most valuable.
Moderation and Observation: Our seasoned moderators, trained to elicit honest, considered opinions, guide conversations to ensure participants feel comfortable and heard. We observe group dynamics, note which topics spark energy, and identify points of confusion or contention. Through this process, we gain a richer sense of what influences perception and how deeply held beliefs can shift.
Analysis and Reporting: After the sessions, our team of experts synthesizes the findings, highlighting core themes, emotional triggers, and the subtle distinctions in public understanding. We translate these observations into strategic recommendations—identifying the unmet needs, framing opportunities, and communication angles most likely to move the needle on your policy or advocacy goals.
Abacus Data is Canada’s most sought-after public affairs research team for a reason. We we release a poll “Ottawa listens”.
Abacus Data is led by Dr. David Coletto, one of Canada’s most trusted voices in public opinion research. Our qualitative team boasts a range of academic credentials, including PhDs and Masters degrees in Political Management, and decades of combined experience in the public affairs space. We understand the political, social, economic, and geopolitical context in which you operate because we live and breathe it every day.
But what truly sets us apart is our ability to blend rigorous methodology with empathetic inquiry. Our moderators know how to navigate sensitive topics, draw out hard-to-reach opinions, and foster an environment where participants feel safe sharing their authentic views. This expertise ensures that you don’t just get surface-level feedback—you get meaningful insights that illuminate the path forward.
Qualitative insights are more than just anecdotes—they are the building blocks of better strategies and more effective advocacy. Armed with the findings from our focus groups and qualitative research, you can:
Refine Messaging and Communications:
Develop messages and narratives that resonate with your target audiences, backed by a nuanced understanding of their priorities, fears, and values.
Build Internal Consensus:
Use recorded sessions, summaries, and key quotes to unite members, leaders, and boards around a common perspective. Hearing real Canadians voice their concerns in their own words can make the case for strategic shifts more compelling than any spreadsheet ever could.
Optimize Advocacy and Policy Strategies:
Identify gaps, fine-tune arguments, and discover new angles to strengthen your lobbying efforts, government relations work, and public outreach.
Leverage Our Platforms and Expertise:
Just as with our polling services, we can help publicize key insights through our 50,000-follower network and our weekly newsletter, Worth a Look. Host a presentation by Dr. David Coletto at your next conference, meeting, or board session to bring the findings to life and inspire action.
If you’re ready to elevate your advocacy, public affairs, or public policy initiatives through rich, people-centered insights, Abacus Data is here to help. Contact Yvonne Langen to set up a 15-minute initial consultation, and we’ll connect you with one of our senior researchers. From there, we’ll design a qualitative research program—complete with focus groups and other methodologies—that delivers the depth and clarity you need to navigate today’s complex landscape.
Don’t settle for a one-dimensional view of public opinion. With Abacus Data’s focus groups and qualitative services, you’ll gain the textured understanding required to turn public perspectives into strategic advantage. It’s time to step beyond the numbers and connect directly with the voices that can help shape the future of your advocacy and policy work.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From October 3 to 9, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults (18+) to gauge their perspectives on immigration and its perceived impacts.
The results reveal a significant shift in sentiment, with a majority now viewing immigration negatively, largely influenced by political affiliations and age.
Concerns extend beyond newcomers, as many Canadians also express concern about domestic migration exacerbating housing shortages and straining public resources and services.
Looking ahead, perceptions of Canada’s ambitious immigration targets also signal rising apprehension among the public. This opinion environments raises questions about whether the “consensus on immigration” is broken and what the impacts will be on political opinions and behaviours and the response by policy makers at all levels of government.
Current Canadian Perspectives on Immigration
Views on immigration continue to shift. Currently, 53% of Canadians view immigration negatively, a trend significantly influenced by political affiliations. 70% of Conservative Party supporters report negative perceptions of immigration, compared to only 27% of Liberal supporters and 37% of NDP supporters. Age also plays a pivotal role; 57% of Canadians aged 45-59 tend to hold more negative views compared to 47% of those aged 18-39.
Concerns about Migration within Canada
Concerns about immigration extend beyond the arrival of newcomers; domestic migration is also a significant source of worry for Canadians. Nearly 58% express apprehension regarding internal migration, with 69% of Conservative supporters and 70% of Bloc Québécois supporters demonstrating the highest levels of concern. Interestingly, younger Canadians aged 18-29 are especially seized around issues related to domestic immigration.
Immigration Targets
Looking ahead, Canada plans to welcome nearly 500,000 new permanent residents in 2024. However, 72% of Canadians believe this target is too ambitious, an increase from 67% in November 2023 and 61% in July 2023. In just over a year, public opinion has shifted from a majoity being resistent to high levels of immigration to a super majority now signally concern. Even more noteworthy, almost half of Canadians now consider the projected number of new immigrants as “way too high,” reflecting a 7-point increase since November and a 10-point rise since July.
The perception that the immigration targets are too high is particularly pronounced among 87% of Conservative supporters, with 75% of those aged 45-59 and 76% of those aged 60 and older expressing similar concerns.
What is driving perceptions about immigration?
Many Canadians now believe that the influx of newcomers is negatively affecting key resources such as housing availability and affordability (73%, up from 69% in November), healthcare access (62%, compared to 53% in November), and social services (59%). These results reflect a scarcity mindset among Canadians, who feel that there are insufficient resources—such as housing, healthcare, and social services—to meet the demands of the growing population, resulting in perceived shortages.
Additionally, perceptions at the community level have worsened over the past year. 60% of Canadians believe that an increasing number of new immigrants negatively impacts traffic congestion (up from 51% in November), while 53% express concerns about crime and public safety (up from 39%), and 42% believe it harms community cohesion (up from 34%). This dynamic shift indicates a growing unease about the implications of immigration on everyday life, as Canadians grapple with perceived negative repercussions of the influx of new immigrants on various aspects of their daily lives.
When looking at key demographics, older Canadians – especially those aged 45-59 and 60 and older – are significantly more likely to believe that new immigrants negatively affect housing affordability, access to healthcare, and social services. Additionally, Conservative supporters are more inclined to think that the arrival of new immigrants has a detrimental impact across all these areas compared to Liberal and NDP supporters.
Does immigration make Canada better or worse off?
Currently, 53% of Canadians believe that immigration is making the country worse off, marking a substantial increase of 10- points since November 2023 and 17-points since July 2023. Supporters of the Conservative Party (60%) and the Bloc Québécois (60%) are notably more likely to hold this view, starkly contrasting with only 29% of Liberal supporters. Interestingly, Canadians aged 18-29 are less inclined to believe that immigration is detrimental compared to those aged 30 and older, highlighting a growing divide in public opinion on immigration and its perceived impact on Canadian society.
Scarcity, not Xenophobia is Driving Resistence to Immigration
Many Canadians identify shortcomings in the current immigration system. 56% note that there is insufficient housing and infrastructure to accommodate the influx of new residents, while 49% believe immigration puts a strain on public services like education and healthcare. Older Canadians (60 and over) are significantly more likely to express these concerns, with 64% stating there isn’t enough housing and 60% indicating that public services are being strained. In contrast, younger Canadians (18-29) are more inclined to view the effects of temporary immigration programs, such as student visas and temporary foreign workers, as out of control (32%). They also express concerns about perceived competition for jobs and resources between immigrants and Canadian citizens, with 31% sharing this sentiment.
Benefits of the Current Immigration System
Despite the criticisms, some Canadians do recognize the benefits of immigration. Specifically, 40% acknowledge that it helps fill gaps in the labour market with skilled workers, while 26% note that it increases cultural diversity and enrichment, and 26% believe it contributes to economic growth and innovation. However, about 3 in 10 Canadians believe there are no benefits at all to immigration.
Liberal supporters are particularly optimistic about the potential of immigration to bolster various sectors, with 48% believing it helps fill gaps in the labor market, 36% seeing it as a contributor to economic growth and innovation, 25% thinking it boosts population growth and sustainability, and 21% feeling it encourages entrepreneurship and new business establishment. Furthermore, young Canadians are more likely to see the benefits of the immigration system, particularly in increasing cultural diversity and enrichment (33%), boosting population growth and sustainability (27%), promoting international connections and trade (22%), and strengthening communities through new perspectives (20%). This highlights a political and generational difference in attitudes toward immigration, with younger Canadians and Liberal supporters remaining more optimistic about its contributions to society and the economy.
Which federal political party is best equipped to address issues with immigration?
When it comes to leadership on immigration issues, 34% of Canadians believe that Pierre Poilievre is the most capable candidate. In contrast, only 16% view Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as best equipped to handle these challenges, while just 14% feel the same about Jagmeet Singh.
This divide in perceptions widens significantly among those concerned about the current level of immigration. Among individuals who believe immigration is negatively impacting the country, 50% see Poilievre as the best candidate to tackle immigration issues, compared to only 5% who support Trudeau and 11% who support Singh. Similarly, among those holding a negative view of immigration, 52% believe Poilievre is best suited to manage this issue, with just 6% favoring Trudeau and 11% favoring Singh.
The Upshot
Over the past year, Canadian attitudes toward immigration have shifted significantly, challenging the idea that immigration is broadly accepted. If any public concensus existed on the benefits of immigration in Canada, it’s clear that concensus is now broken.
Today, a majority of Canadians view immigration negatively, a trend that highlights a scarcity mindset regarding essential resources like housing, healthcare, and social services. Older Canadians are particularly concerned about inadequate housing and the strain on public services, while younger Canadians focus more on issues related to temporary immigration programs and competition for jobs.
Concerns about new immigrants also extend to social challenges, including traffic congestion, crime, and weakened community ties, indicating a growing unease about their impact on daily life. This anxiety isn’t limited to newcomers; many Canadians are worried about domestic migration as well. The movement of people within Canada is exacerbating existing housing shortages, increasing competition for affordable living, and straining access to crucial resources like healthcare and education.
As these attitudes evolve, they carry important implications for the political landscape. Given the growing negative sentiment surrounding immigration, this trend is crucial to note, as immigration policy has the potential to play a large role in the upcoming federal election, which is something we have not seen in Canada in a long time.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from October 3 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
About Abacus Data
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From October 3 to 10, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 997 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we also explore how people feel about Premier Ford’s idea to build a tunnel under the 401 and on homeless encampments across the province.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 20 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 24%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 22%, and the Greens at 7%.
All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous survey but represents the widest lead for the PCs since we started tracking following the 2022 election.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 31 points in the GTHA, by 18 in eastern Ontario, and by 15 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 14.
The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.
They are well ahead among men (21-point lead), lead by 11 among women, and have opened up a 25-point lead among Ontarians aged 60 and over.
Doug Ford’s personal numbers are holding steady over the past two months.
34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (down 2), while negative views are down slightly to 42%, for a net score of -8.
Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -9 (a slight deterioration) and NDP leader Marit Stiles has an even net score (unchanged). For Green Party leader Mike Schreiner, 20% have a positive impression compared with 21% with a negative view (unchanged).
Public Opinion and Perceptions about Homeless Encampments
In this survey, we also asked some questions about what people think about homeless encampments across the province.
84% of Ontarians believe homeless encampments are a problem with 54% thinking they are a big problem. Those in Toronto and southwestern Ontario are more likely to think the issue is a big problem. There’s also a direct relationship between problem perception and age.
When asked which level of government Ontarians believe is most responsible for dealing with homeless encampments, 43% believe the provincial government is most responsible, followed by the federal government at 32% and 1 in 4 who think it’s municipal government responsibility.
Of note, 37% of PC Party supporters think the province is most responsible for dealing with the homeless encampments.
This view is reinforced by the perceptives that most Ontarians (62%) think the provincial government is not doing enough to help municipalities deal with homeless encampments. Another 5% think they are doing more than enough while 17% think they are doing enough.
42% of PC Party supporters don’t think the province is doing enough.
When asked to rate performance of the Prime Minister, Premier, and Mayor of Toronto on handling homeless encampments, few rate any of the three’s performance in a positive way. 63% think Prime Minister Trudeau has done a poor job, 53% rate the Premier’s performance as poor, while 48% rate Mayor Chow’s performance poorly (including 49% in Toronto).
When we ask whether people would support or oppose several possible measures to address the issue, we find broad support for all of them.
Finally, when we ask which approach people would prefer to see taken to address homeless encampments in Ontario, 80% prefer a more compassionate approach while 20% want to see the encampments removed and laws enforced.
Highways 401 & 407
The survey also asked Ontarians their views on two ideas that have been floated by Premier Ford relating to transportation around Toronto.
When the survey was conducted 2 in 3 Ontarians were aware of the Premier’s announcement to conduct a feasibility assessment to build a tunnel under the 401. When asked for their initial reaction, responses tended to be more negative. Many thought the idea would be too expensive or unfeasible, some thought this was a bad use of taxpayers money or shouldn’t be the priority at the moment.
Others thought it would help traffic in the region.
When asked specifically whether the idea to build a tunnel under Highway 401, 35% think it’s a good idea while 47% think it’s a bad idea. Another 18% are unsure. It’s worth noting that those who think the idea is very bad is subtantially higher than those who think it’s a very good idea.
Those in Toronto and living in the GTHA are more likely to think the idea is a good one. Most PC supporters agree as well although 25% think it’s a bad idea.
There is less overt opposition to the province purchasing the 407 ETR highway that runs north of Toronto. 39% think it’s a good idea, 22% think it’s an acceptable idea while 18% think its a bad idea including only 8% who think it’s a very bad idea. Those in the GTHA particularly like the idea.
The Upshot
The PC Party continues to maintain a large lead over the opposition parties in Ontario. The 20-point lead we measured this month is the largest we’ve seen since we started tracking after the 2022 provincial election. The Premier’s personal numbers are comparable to the opposition party leaders and the government’s approval rating, while not stellar, is not bad either.
Homeless encampments are seen as a problem by almost all Ontarians and most don’t think the provincial government is doing enough to help municipalities to deal with them. There’s broad support for action and an approach that helps solve the issue and finds permanent help and housing for those who are unhoused and in the encampments at the moment.
Traffic is also a top issue, especially for those living around Toronto. While support for building a tunnel under the 401 is tepid right now, there is broad support for purchasing the 407 to eleviate congestion on the 401. Given the rise in support the Premier and PC Party has seen in the GTHA, it’s clear Doug Ford’s attention to this issue is appreciated by residents in the region.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 997 eligible voters in Ontario from October 3 to 10, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From October 3 to 10, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,900 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers along with a test of a recent advertisement Conservative Party advertisement.
Negative Impressions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre Increase by 5 points
The most notable change in opinions over the past month has been how Canadians feel about Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Today, 39% have a positive impression of Mr. Poilievre while 40% have a negative view. While positive impressions are static, those holding a negative impression have increased by 5-points over the past month from 35% to 40%. For the first time since last October, Mr. Poilievre’s net favourability score is negative, barely underwater at -1.
The rise in negative impressions of Mr. Poilievre are not concentrated to a single demographic or regional group. His negatives are up 7 in BC, 6 in Quebec, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. Negatives are up 5 among men and 4 among women while we see a rise in negatives between 3 and 7 points across age groups.
What is clear is that his negatives have increased almost entirely among people who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021. There’s been a 6-point increase among past Liberal voters, 7-point increase among past NDP voters, and a 16-point increase among past BQ supporters.
Among those who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021 but say they are open to voting Conservative today, Mr. Poilievre’s negatives are up 3.
Despite this rise in negative impressions, more people have a positive view of Mr. Poilievre than any of the other party leaders – Poilievre 39%, Singh 30%, Trudeau 23%.
Negative Impressions of Jagmeet Singh are also rising reaching an all-time high.
At the same time, we also continue to see a rise in negative feelings towards NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. Today 30% have a positive view while 41% have a negative view for a net score of -11, the worst score we’ve measured for Mr. Singh since we’ve been tracking public views of the NDP leader.
There has also been a shift in views about change and the acceptability of alternatives
We have also seen a shift in views about the desire for a change in government and the acceptability of alternatives.
Today, 51% of Canadians believe it’s time for a change in government and think there is a good alternative available. That’s down 5-points over the past month and a low since March. At the same time, those who want change but don’t feel there’s a good alternative is up 5 to 34%, a reaching a high not seen since May.
What hasn’t changed is the proportion of Canadians who believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Only 15% of Canadians hold that view, largely unchanged from last month and still much lower than the 20% who felt that way back in August 2023.
Despite these shifts, vote intention has not changed much at all: Conservatives lead by 21 over the Liberals.
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 19% for the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ has 36% of the vote in Quebec. The Liberal vote share is up 1 while the NDP and the Conservatives are unchanged from the end of last year.
15% of Canadians are uncommitted at this point, the same proportion as we measured last month.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 18 in BC, by 41 points in Alberta, 34 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 22 points in Ontario, and by 12 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 12 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are tied for second at 24%.
Due to a larger sample in Ontario this wave (n=999) we can report subregions in the province. The Conservatives lead by 21 in Toronto, by 29 in the GTHA, and by 18 in Southwestern Ontario. The Conservatives are also ahead in Eastern Ontario, leading the Liberals by 23.
Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 22% while the Conservatives are well ahead with 49%.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.
The Conservative vote share is fairly consistent across all age groups – ranging from 39% to 46% while the Liberals have more support among those at either end of the age spectrum – 26% among 18 to 30 year olds and 24% among those aged 60+
It’s worth noting that 50% of BQ supporters are aged 60 and over – explaining its push to have Old Age Security payments increased for those aged 65 to 74.
For the last five waves of tracking, there is a slight gender gap in Conservative support. 48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 38% of women. Liberal support is slightly higher among women (25%) than it is among men (20%).
The Conservative Party’s lead grows to 22-points if you look at the vote intention of only those certain to vote in the next election. The Conservatives would get 45% compared with 23% for the Liberals and 20% for the NDP respectively.
The small improvement in the overall mood of the country has reverted back to the level we’ve seen for almost the entirety of 2024. 25% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction. Only 14% feel the same way about how things are going globally (down 4).
The federal government’s approval rating is unchanged.
Today, 26% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (up 1) while disapproval is unchanged at 59%.
The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister which remain significantly more negative than positive. Despiite a rise in negatives towards Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh, Prime Minister Trudeau’s image has not shifted in the past month.
Today, 23% (+1) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 59% (down 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -36.
Which party do Canadians think will win the next election and so Canadians want an election now?
Half of Canadians (50%) believe that the Conservative Party is likely to win the next federal election, up 3 from last month. 17% think the Liberals are going to win (unchanged) while 9% think the NDP is going to win (down 2). 1 in 4 Canadians remain unsure about the outcome of the next election.
How do Canadians React to the new Conservative Party Ad – “Mountain”?
Every now and then we liked to show Canadians content that political parties are putting out to gauge reaction to it. We do this all the time for our clients who are developing advertisements or content and it helps us understand whether the story and message the party is putting out through paid ads is appealing.
We showed this ad – in both languages – to our respondents.
Overall, the ad was well received by most Canadians. 52% said the ad made them feel more positive about Pierre Poilievre while 14% said it made them feel less positive for a net impact of +38. 34% said it had no impact.
Among accessible Conservatives (those open to voting Conservative but right now are voting for another party or are undecided), the net effect is +66. Among those who say their second choice is the Conservative Party but right now they are supporting another party, the net impact was even more positive at +78.
Canadians under 45 years of age were also more responsive to the ad. 30% said their impression of Pierre Poilievre was much more positive and the net impact was +49 among this group.
Among francophone Quebecers, the net impact was +33 with 21% saying it left them feeling much more positive about Poilievre.
Based on this, it’s likely that if this ad is seen widely, it will likely improve impressions of Poilievre. But we dug a bit deeper to understand why it appealed to people.
We followed up with people who said the ad made them feel more positive about Mr. Poilievre.
Among accessible Conservatives who didn’t vote Conservative in 2021 (a key group for the party today – 47% of which would vote Conservative now), here’s a summary of their feedback.
Many expressed hope that Pierre Poilievre would improve Canada, make it a better place to live, and restore the country’s lost glory. Themes included fixing issues like housing, crime, and the economy. Words like “hope,” “positive,” “better future,” and “change” were common.
A significant portion found Pierre Poilievre relatable, down-to-earth, and in touch with the average Canadian. Many felt he understood their struggles and expressed views that aligned with their own, often praising his “common sense.”
Several people appreciated that Poilievre touched on relevant issues such as housing, crime, taxes, unemployment, and the economy. They felt these were the real problems that needed addressing.
Some viewers, while positive about the message, expressed doubt about whether Poilievre would follow through on his promises. There was a cautious optimism, with some skepticism about political promises being fulfilled.
Others were moved by Poilievre’s personal story, including his upbringing and the struggles he overcame. They saw this as evidence that he could relate to the challenges of average Canadians.
Finally, a notable group emphasized the patriotic message of the ad, appreciating that Poilievre spoke about Canada’s identity, family values, and returning to a Canada that was once strong. They felt a connection to his message of unification and national pride.
The “Mountain” ad appears to convey a message of hope, relatability, and patriotism to currently accessible Conservative voters who didn’t support the party in 2021, resonating most with their desire for positive change in Canada.
Poilievre’s focus on addressing key issues like housing, the economy, and crime struck a chord, while his perceived down-to-earth demeanor and “common sense” approach made him relatable. Many saw him as genuine and trustworthy, though some remained cautiously optimistic or skeptical about whether his promises would be fulfilled. Overall, the ad effectively tapped into a sense of nostalgia for a better Canada, offering a unifying message that aligned with voters’ concerns about the country’s direction.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “In the past month, perceptions of both Mr. Poilievre and Mr. Singh have become more negative, while views of Prime Minister Trudeau remain unchanged. We could be entering a new period where all three main party leaders become and are deeply unpopular with those who are not voting for them. This has long been the case for Mr. Trudeau, but we’re now seeing it with Mr. Singh and Mr. Poilievre as well.
This has three key implications. First, despite Mr. Poilievre being more popular than the other two leaders, he remains vulnerable to reputational damage. Many Canadians still don’t know him well, which could make him susceptible to negative perceptions, either from his actions or attacks from opponents.
But consider this: our survey shows that 1 in 5 Canadians don’t know Mr. Singh or Mr. Poilievre well, and only a third feel they know them very well. A year ago, 38% of Canadians said they didn’t know Mr. Poilievre at all or had only heard of him, but that number has now dropped to 22%. Canadians have a better sense of who he is and what he stands for. Although his negative ratings have increased, Conservative support hasn’t declined, suggesting those uncomfortable with him aren’t Conservative voters, and the party’s coalition remains solid.
Second, while Mr. Poilievre’s negatives are rising, the overall desire for change remains high, even more now think there isn’t an alternative they are comfortable with. Eighty-five percent of Canadians want a change in government, and only 15% believe Trudeau and the Liberals deserve re-election. As long as Mr. Trudeau is viewed more negatively—and more intensely disliked—than Mr. Poilievre, any increase in Mr. Poilievre’s negatives won’t drastically alter the political landscape.
Finally, all this suggests that a leadership change in the Liberal Party could shift the current dynamic. There’s a strong link between how people feel about Mr. Trudeau and their likelihood of voting Liberal. As I’ve argued before, if Mr. Trudeau intends to run again, the only way for the Liberals to become more competitive is to improve his image. Without changing how people feel about Mr. Trudeau, the Liberals can’t reduce their polling deficit.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,900 Canadian adults from October 3 to 10, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From September 19 to 25, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,701 Canadian adults (18+) to examine their perspectives on climate change and their priorities in the context of pressing immediate challenges, such as the cost of living and housing affordability. Results reveal a significant focus on short-term relief, with many Canadians prioritizing immediate socioeconomic issues over long-term climate action, while also shedding light on the political implications of these perceptions, emphasizing the critical role leaders play in navigating the intersection of immediate concerns and environmental sustainability.
Shifting Priorities Amid Immediate Challenges
62% of Canadians are concerned about climate change and its potential impact on our future, while only 13% indicated that they are entirely unconcerned. Liberal (76%) and NDP (74%) supporters are the most concerned with climate change, while just 49% of Conservative Party supporters share similar concerns. Further, nearly 1 in 4 Conservative supporters indicate that they are not at all concerned with climate change and its potential impact on our future (22%).
Notably, concern about climate change has decreased 14 points since October 2023, which revealed that 76% of Canadians were worried about this issue.
In exploring the reasons behind this decrease in concern, the data reveal that 72% of Canadians prioritize immediate issues over climate change, with only 5% placing a greater emphasis on environmental matters. Among those focused on immediate concerns, 82% who intend to vote Conservative Party hold this view, compared to 57% for Liberal and 65% for NDP supporters. Interestingly, Liberal supporters are more likely to recognize the importance of both climate change and issues related to the cost of living and housing equality, with 32% prioritizing both compared to just 15% of Conservative voters.
This decline in concern regarding climate change, coupled with the majority of Canadians focusing on immediate challenges, suggests that while climate change remains important for many, Canadians are increasingly preoccupied with pressing issues such as the cost of living and housing affordability and a scarcity mindset is framing their priorities at the moment. As these urgent matters demand immediate attention, individuals are shifting their focus toward short-term relief rather than long-term solutions like climate action.
Divided Opinions: Balancing Economic Growth and Climate Action
When considering what approach government should take, 55% of Canadians believe the government should strive for a balance between economic growth and climate action. This sentiment is particularly strong among Liberal (65%) and NDP (63%) supporters, while only 44% of Conservative supporters share this view. In contrast, a significant 41% of Conservative supporters advocate for prioritizing immediate economic growth, even if it necessitates postponing climate action. This highlights a clear divide in priorities among different political affiliations regarding the relationship between economic development and environmental responsibility.
62% of Canadians believe it is possible to address immediate issues while also tackling climate change, reflecting a growing recognition that these priorities can be pursued simultaneously. This perspective is particularly strong among Liberal (77%) and NDP (70%) supporters, indicating a strong commitment to balancing urgent needs with long-term environmental goals. In contrast, only 54% of Conservative supporters share this belief, highlighting differing attitudes across political affiliations regarding the integration of immediate concerns with climate action. This divergence suggests that many Canadians are optimistic about finding solutions that can effectively address both current challenges and the imperative of climate change.
Public Confidence and Expectations in Climate Leadership
38% of Canadians consider it important for the party they support to have a robust plan for addressing climate change. This sentiment is especially strong among Liberal (55%) and NDP (51%) supporters, while only 24% of Conservative Party voters feel the same way. Notably, 20% of Canadians intending to vote for the Conservative Party indicate that climate change is not a significant factor in their voting decision. This highlights a clear divide in priorities regarding climate action among political affiliations.
When Canadians were asked who they believe is best equipped to tackle climate change and promote the growth of Canada’s clean economy, Pierre Poilievre emerged as the preferred choice for 30% of respondents. This indicates that many Canadians now view him as a capable leader on these critical issues. In contrast, only 17% of Canadians believe that Justin Trudeau is the right person for the job. This is particularly striking given that Trudeau has historically been known for his strong stance on climate action and environmental policies. His current standing reflects a noticeable decline in public confidence regarding his climate initiatives. Additionally, just 13% of respondents think Jagmeet Singh is best suited to handle these challenges.
Interestingly, on October 12, 2023, we released a report that asked Canadians who they thought was better able to deal with several issues. In this, 37% of Canadians noted that Justin Trudeau was better able to take action to deal with climate change compared to 30% who noted they believed it was Pierre Poilievre (32% didn’t know who was best at the time).
With 30% of Canadians believing that Pierre Poilievre is the leader best equipped to address climate change while also promoting the growth of Canada’s clean economy, it is essential to examine what Canadians expect him to do in this area. Notably, 79% of Canadians feel that if elected, Poilievre should take climate change seriously. This sentiment is particularly strong among Liberal (89%) and NDP (89%) supporters, showcasing a cross-party consensus on the importance of climate action. Even among Conservative supporters, 71% believe that Poilievre should prioritize addressing climate change.
However, a significant gap emerges when it comes to expectations versus beliefs: only 34% of Canadians are confident that Poilievre will take climate change seriously if elected. Among Conservative supporters, this belief is more prevalent, with 55% expressing confidence in his commitment to climate action. In stark contrast, just 25% of Liberal supporters and 20% of NDP supporters share this view. This discrepancy underscores varying levels of trust in Poilievre’s climate priorities across political affiliations, highlighting the challenge he faces in aligning public expectations with perceptions of his willingness to take meaningful climate action.
THE UPSHOT
In 2024, Canadians have witnessed several extreme weather events, notably the Jasper wildfire, severe flooding in southern Ontario and Quebec, and a major hailstorm in Calgary, to mention a few. Despite these events, we have witnessed a significant decline in concerns surrounding climate change and its impacts across Canada. The decline in concern over climate change raises important questions about whether Canadians are becoming desensitized to the threats posed by extreme weather events, or if the current focus on cost of living is simply overshadowing environmental concerns.
Recent shifts in public opinion indicate that more Canadians now view Pierre Poilievre as the leader best equipped to address climate change and grow Canada’s a clean economy, though skepticism about his commitment to climate action remains among many Canadians (including his supporters). As many Canadians still express concern about climate change, Conservatives cannot afford to ignore this issue. To build trust among their voter base, and Canadians in general, Poilievre must bridge the gap between public expectations and political commitments, especially as public sentiment increasingly reflects the interconnectedness of economic and environmental issues.
Climate change remains one of the most politically divisive issues in Canada, particularly in terms of its salience and urgency. Advocates for climate action need to find ways to effectively link climate issues to pressing concerns like the cost of living and safety, particularly for Conservative voters, as these are issues that are far more pressing for many Canadians. It’s important for Conservatives to recognize climate change as a real issue impacting Canada today, as neglecting it could become a vulnerability, particularly if short-term worries about costs begin to lessen.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,701 Canadian adults from September 19 to 25, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.38 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.