Abacus Data is proud to announce the planting of a Smart Forest™ in partnership with Canada’s Forest Trust Corporation (CFTC). This initiative represents a significant step towards addressing one of the top concerns for Canadians: climate change. Together with CFTC, they are supporting the planting of diverse tree species and protecting them in one of Canada’s most impactful nature-based climate solutions—Smart Forests™. Designed for long-term sustainability, this partnership promotes the need for nature-based solutions in future-thinking businesses and organizations across the country.
Key Highlights of the Abacus Data Smart Forest™ Stewardship:
Initial Planting of 2,000 Trees: Abacus and CFTC are planting 2,000 trees – spanning an area equal to the size of 24 House of Commons Chambers – with plans for consistent annual growth through a program that will engage clients in supporting forests.
Significant Carbon Capture: The initial Smart Forest™ is projected to capture around 280,000 kg of carbon over its lifetime—equivalent to approximately 2,135 flights between Ottawa and Toronto. Boosting Biodiversity and the Economy: This forest will enhance biodiversity through the planting of diverse tree species, the creation of new healthy habitats, and the creation of jobs, supporting the Canadian economy.
Confronting Climate Anxiety: A recent poll by Abacus and CFTC indicates that 12 million Canadians experience climate anxiety. This collaboration underscores their commitment to addressing climate concerns alongside the growing health and safety risks from climate change. The Abacus Data Smart Forest™ exemplifies their dedication to organizational values and meaningful impact.
The Abacus Data Smart Forest™ is planted to have a lasting impact. “Together, we’re supporting nature and promoting the many benefits that a Smart Forest™ brings to the planet, people, and our collective prosperity,” said David Coletto, Founder and CEO of Abacus Data. “This partnership addresses the growing climate concerns of Canadians and demonstrates our commitment to meaningful action.” Gary Zed, Founder and CEO of CFTC added, “Abacus Data is a leading business in Canada, recognizing the necessity of collective investments in our planet to achieve tangible, long-term impact. We applaud their commitment and look forward to implementing innovative solutions to elevate the growth and impact of their forest.”
Businesses are encouraged to join Abacus in this mission to support the planet through the Smart Forest™ Stewardship plan, contributing to a sustainable future for generations to come.
ABOUT CANADA’S FOREST TRUST CORPORATION (CFTC)
Canada’s Forest Trust Corporation (CFTC) is a social enterprise committed to delivering an innovative nature-based climate solution to address our environmental commitments and demonstrate tangible impact by building and protecting Smart Forests™. Its solution offers a strategic approach to carbon storage and biodiversity enhancement, aligning with sustainability goals and reporting requirements.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
But first, a message from Abacus Data founder and CEO, David Coletto:
We love elections at Abacus Data. Exploring what people think and feel and how that impacts their behaviours at work, as consumers, and as citizens is at the core of what we do.
And so, with just two days left to go in Nova Scotia, we are excited to share the results from our final provincial election survey with you and show how opinions and intentions have shifted over the campaign.
In case you missed our big announcement at the beginning of the campaign: Abacus Data is proud to be investing in Atlantic Canada. We have opened an office in Halifax and Kelly Bennett has joined our team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada Lead.
Together, we will serve clients in Atlantic Canada with the same curious, thoughtful, and hospitality-inspired approach that has made Abacus the most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm in Canada.
To learn more about our investment and expansion in Atlantic Canada, click here.
Now to the survey results.
The results indicate that unless something fundamentally changes today or tomorrow, the Nova Scotia PC Party and Tim Houston are headed towards a landslide victory on Tuesday night.
PCs lead by 20-points over the NDP among all committed voters but that lead grows to 24-points among those who have already voted and tell us they are most motivated to vote.
Tim Houston’s PCs are at 48% followed by Claudia Chender’s NDP at 28% with Zach Churchill’s Liberal Party at 22%. Since the start of the campaign, the PC vote share is up 3 points, the NDP share is up 2 points, while the Liberal vote share is down 3. points We expect the NS Greens to get about 1% of the vote. Among all eligible voters in Nova Scotia, 20% say they are still undecided, down 5-points from the start of the campaign.
Among those who say they have already voted (turnout has been lower in advance voting than it was at this point in the 2021 provincial election) and those who say they are most motivated to vote (57% of our sample), the PCs are ahead by 24-points: PC 50%, NDP 26%, Liberal 23%, and Green 1%.
What is driving this highly likely PC Party re-election?
Despite NDP leader Claudia Chender having a lot of goodwill and the best net favourable rating of the party leaders, the incumbent PCs benefit from having a relatively popular incumbent leader, they lead on three of the four top issues (and both of the top two election issues), and the desire for change has not reached a level that is a serious threat to them.
Let’s explore each of these.
The Issues
The PCs and Tim Houston are seen as best able to handle three of the four top issues by more voters. On the top two issues – affordability and health care – they are well ahead of either of the main opposition parties.
Fixing healthcare, affordability and improving housing remain the top three issues likely to impact the way Nova Scotians vote in the provincial election. The salience of these issues has not changed much since the start of the campaign.
When voters who identify healthcare, affordability, housing and/or reducing taxes as their top issues are asked which party they think will be best able to manage those issues, the PCs finish first on three of the four top issues. They lead the Liberals and NDP by 19-points on “fixing healthcare”, lead the NDP by 11-points on “making life more affordable”, and lead the NDP by 28-points on “reducing taxes”.
Only on “improving housing and reducing homelessness” do the PCs slightly trail the NDP (34% to 29%).
The PCs also lead among those who identify “growing the economy and creating good jobs,” “managing population growth”, and “improving roads” as their top issues.
And the PCs are in fourth place on the party Nova Scotians who rate climate change and the environment as a top issue (the Greens lead on that issue).
The Leaders
Our final election survey also confirms that Tim Houston remains far more known than the other party leaders, even as the campaign enters its final days. 74% of eligible voters currently feel they have a very good or pretty good idea who the incumbent Premier is and what he stands for, remaining high overall and high in most segments.
Familiarity with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and NDP Leader Claudia Chender has improved a little bit since the start of the campaign, but remains much lower than it is for Tim Houston.
While the same proportion (48%) of voters have at least a pretty good idea of who Zach Churchill is (unchanged from the start of the campaign), there has been a 3-point decrease in those who say they don’t know much about him at all (21% to 18%).
For NDP Leader Claudia Chender, we see a similar change. Familiarity with Claudia Chender as a person and a leader is only slightly higher than it was when the campaign started (+3), but the proportion of those who don’t know her at all is down 6-points (28% to 22%).
One of the features of this campaign is that the opposition leaders have not been able to improve their familiarity with voters and the Premier, like any incumbent, held a big advantage when the campaign started and held that throughout.
When we ask Nova Scotians about their impressions of the party leaders, Tim Houston continues to be viewed positively by 41% of eligible voters (up 3 point since our first survey) and negatively by 29% (down 5 from the start of the campaign) for a net score of +12, representing an improvement since the start of the campaign.
In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +3 (down since the start) and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +21 (a slight drop). Very few Nova Scotians have a negative impression of Ms. Chender and although her positives almost match Premier Houston, she hasn’t been able to convert this goodwill into support (likely because of how the party is perceived to perform on the top issues mentioned earlier).
This set of results also confirms that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are well-liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -35 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -15 in the province.
Another interesting dynamic relating is the PC party’s appeal among voters who dislike Justin Trudeau and those who dislike Pierre Poilievre. The charts below show the relationship between provincial vote and views of Trudeau and Poilievre. It shows that the PCs have been able to attract a majority of those with a negative view of Trudeau while also attracting over 1 in 4 Nova Scotians who have a negative impression of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
That broad (purple) coalition is a big part of the lopsided PC victory that is likely to happen on Tuesday. 32% of past federal Liberal supporters and 21% of past federal NDP supporters say they are or have voted PC in the Nova Scotia provincial election.
The Desire for Change
Incumbents everywhere in 2024 have seen their vote share decline. But in Nova Scotia, it appears that Tim Houston and the PCs will buck that trend.
In our first Nova Scotia election poll, 50% of eligible voters told us they definitely wanted to see a change in government in Nova Scotia. Today, that figure is still 50%. And those who definitely want to see the Houston PC government re-elected is holding steady at 21%. The opposition parties have been unable to increase the desire for change leaving the Houston PCs in a strong position. Compared with other elections where we have done polling, the desire for change in Nova Scotia is not much higher than it was at the start of the 2022 Ontario provincial election or the final weekend of the 2021 campaign.
But even more important, among Nova Scotians who say they have voted or are most motivated to vote, those who definitely want Houston and the PCs re-elected goes up to 28% while the definite change voter share only increases 2 points. This suggests that if turnout is lower than in the previous election (and advance voting is lower than last time), the PCs will have an advantage because the opposition has not galvanized the desire for change (which is similar to what happened in Ontario in 2022).
Even among those who definitely want to see a change in government, 13% of eligible voters in Nova Scotia still say they plan to vote PC, an increase of 4-points since the start of the campaign.
And the NDP and Liberals currently split the-solid-change-vote 36% to 28% for the NDP with neither party being effective in mobilizing change voters around one option. This vote split will further help the PCs win more seats in some places it wasn’t successful in 2021.
Tim Houston leads by 16 on “Best Premier”
When we ask Nova Scotians which of the party leaders they think would make the best Premier, Tim Houston continues to finish far ahead of the other party leaders. 38% pick the current Premier, 22% select NDP Leader Claudia Chender, while Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is third at 15%. Both Houston and Chender are up since the start of the campaign. And 24% are unsure.
Will Turnout Drop? Probably because most expect a PC win.
We expect voter turnout to be lower in this provincial election than it was in 2021 due to various reasons, including no online or telephone voting options, no voter cards telling people where to go to vote, bad weather on the last weekend of the campaign and perceptions of an uncompetitive election. As academic research has shown, the likelihood to vote is determined by several factors including the answer to four questions: Do I like politics? Do I have a duty to vote? Do I care about the outcome? Is it easy to vote?
At the end of the campaign, more than half of Nova Scotians believe that the PCs will win the provincial election, a six point increase from the start of the campaign. 12% think the Liberals will win and only 8% expect an NDP victory, despite more people saying they will vote or have voted NDP than Liberal. The low expectations of an NDP win can likely explain part of the reason why they have been unable to convert a popular leader into more support.
UPSHOT
According to Kelly Bennett: “Our final Nova Scotia election poll suggests that Tim Houston and the PCs will get the big mandate that they were hoping for when they decided to throw out the ‘save the date’ card and go with a snap election this fall, instead of waiting until the hazy days of next summer.
With just 48 hours left to go, the PCs continue to have a big lead on the other parties, making them very likely to win the election by a landslide.
Tim Houston and the PCs started the election with many advantages. They knew the date. They knew their positions and they were ready to go. They have also run a very disciplined campaign, promising Nova Scotians “lower taxes, more doctors and higher wages” over-and-over again – on the ground, on their signs, through social media, on TV and by radio. That consistency has paid off.
We also expect Claudia Chender and her party to be celebrating some wins on Tuesday night, with the NDP now likely to finish second and return to Province House as the Official Opposition. Our final poll suggests that the NDP has found some momentum in the last week, pulling six-points ahead of Zach Churchill’s Liberals and continuing to lead on the housing issue.
Chender will also finish her first campaign as party leader with high personal favourability – making her someone to watch now and into the future. While she could not consolidate the desire-for-change vote this time, she may have the personal qualities and skills that Nova Scotians want in their leaders.”
According to David Coletto: “As I have noted in previous analyzes of our polling, Tim Houston and the Nova Scotia PC Party are on the cusp of doing something very very few incumbents have been able to do in 2024 (and no national government globally has been able to do): get re-elected with a higher share of the vote than it received previous. They will not only survive “inflationitis” but actually find a way to thrive with it all around.
Tim Houston and the PCs took a chance when they called an early election that voters would not punish them for that decision but reward them for what they perceived as fairly effective governance and focus on the issues most Nova Scotians care about. Unless something fundamentally changes in the final two days of the campaign, that gamble will likely pay off.
Claudia Chender and the NDP should win more votes than the Liberals, but their campaign doesn’t seem to have been effective enough in convert the potential out there. Chender is well liked and the NDP’s accessible voter pool has grown over the campaign but they have not been able to break through and convert that goodwill – in part, I think, because not enough voters are convinced they have a better plan or can better handle the two big issues facing the province – affordability and healthcare.
For the NS Liberals, this campaign will end in disappointment. Not just because the Liberals will not form government but because Zach Churchill will finish the campaign the least well known of the three main party leaders and the party’s vote share is likely to fall to third for the first time since 2006.
It appears that this election campaign will end as it started. Tim Houston and the PCs will get a second mandate and it will be a larger, broader, and more secure one.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 645 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from November 21 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.8% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From November 14 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only and all of the interviews we done following the U.S. Presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory. It’s our first survey after the U.S. election. We also asked Canadians to assess the impact of Trump’s election on Canada and which leader they believe would be best to manage the relationship with President Trump.
Most think the relationship with the United States will be worse under a Trump Administration.
Six in ten Canadians expect that Canada’s relationship with the United States will get worse following Donald Trump’s re-election. 1 in 4 think it will get much worse. In contrast, 17% think the relationship will improve while 24% think it won’t change.
Expectations are fairly consistent across the country and political groups although Conservative supporters are somewhat more likely to think the relationship will improve (27%) than Liberal supporters (17%).
When we dig into specific aspects of the relationship and outcomes, most Canadians think a Trump administration will create more economic uncertainty rather than more economic certainty.
A similar proportion expect there to be less action on climate change rather than more action on climate change. NDP and Liberal supporters more likely to believe this than Conservative supporters.
A larger majority (65%) believe that Trump’s victory will mean more tariffs and trade barriers rather than fewer tariffs and freer trade. Conservatives, Liberals, and NDPers all agree on this.
Views are more divided on whether Trump means better or worse defence and security cooperation. 40% think it will be worse while 26% think it will better. There is a difference of opinion between Conservative and Liberal/NDP supporters.
Most Canadians expect that immigration from the U.S. to Canada will increase because of Trump’s election. Only 16% expect there to be less immigration.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.
Trudeau and Trump: What is more important?
We asked Canadians which of two statements comes closest to their views? Whether Donald Trump’s dislike of and disagreement with Justin Trudeau and his government on many issues will hurt the federal government’s ability to protect Canada’s interest or whether Justin Trudeau and his government’s previous experience working with Trump will mean Canada’s interests will be well protected.
By a 3 to 1 margin, Canadians say Trump’s dislike of and disagreement with Trudeau will hamper Canadian interests rather than his experience with Trump being an assest. Even current Liberal supporters are split on this.
Which Leader has the Best Chance of Achieving Positive Outcomes for Canada with Trump?
So when we ask Canadians which leader has the best chance to achieve positive things for Canada with Trump, 45% pick Pierre Poilievre, followed by Justin Trudeau at 20% and Jagmeet Singh at 9%. 1 in 4 Canadians don’t know.
Not surprising that most current Liberals think Trudeau is best able to handle Trump and most Conservatives think Poilievre is best able to deal with it. But the percentage of Conservative supporters thinking Poilievre is better is higher than Liberals who feel Trudeau is best equipped. This suggests that Poilievre has a clear advantage if Canadians are considering who is best to deal with Trump when considering their preference in a future election.
When we ask who Canadians think Donald Trump would prefer to deal with as Prime Minister, the response is even more lopsided in Poilievre’s favour. 6 in 10 think Trump would prefer to work with Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister. Only 12% think he’d want to work with Trudeau. Even about half of current Liberal supporters think Trump would prefer Poilievre over Trudeau.
The political upside of a Trump victory for the Trudeau Liberals seems quite limited. For example, when we ask Canadians who they think is the greater threat to Canada’s long-term prosperity – Trump or Trudeau – more say Trump than Trudeau but the gap isn’t that large. When you include the proportion who see them both as equal threats – 54% think Trudeau is either more of or an equal threat to Canada’s propersity than Trump. And among current Conservatives (keep in mind they are head of the Liberals by 22 points in vote intention), 78% think Trudeau is either more threatening than Trump or an equal threat to Canada’s long-term prosperity.
Who are Canadians More Likely to Vote for? Someone who stands up to Trump or Someone who is best able to work with him?
Canadians are fairly split on what approach most appeals to them when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump. 42% say they are more likely to vote for someone who is best able to work with him while 39% say they would prefer someone who stands up to Trump.
Liberals lean towards someone who stands up to Trump while Conservatives prefer someone who can best work with him – although some supporters of both parties see the reverse as more attractive. This suggests that some combination of working closely and standing firm on some things is probaly the best approach.
NDP supporters are the most likely to say they will vote for someone who stands up to Trump (59%).
Finally, when asked if Trump’s election has caused them to reconsider who they might vote for, only 16% say it has. And when those 16% are asked who they are now more likely to support – 44% say Pierre Poilievre, 27% say Justin Trudeau, and 12% Jagmeet Singh. More evidence that Trump’s victory has not, at least right now, helped the political fortunes of Justin Trudeau or the Liberals.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Most Canadians are bracing for a potential second Trump administration with trepidation, fearing its negative impact on Canada’s economic certainty, immigration policies, and the broader bilateral relationship. Trump’s tumultuous first term left a deep impression on Canadians, shaping their expectations of what another term could mean for their country. Yet, rather than driving Canadians toward a domestic political alternative starkly opposed to Trump’s style, the prevailing sentiment is more pragmatic: Canadians are looking for a leader who can effectively navigate and defend Canadian interests under a Trump presidency.
This pragmatism underscores a vulnerability for Justin Trudeau. Trump’s well-documented animosity toward the Prime Minister looms large in public perception, with many Canadians doubting Trudeau’s ability to manage such a fraught relationship. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s more combative approach and clear willingness to stand up for Canadian interests resonate with those who see him as better equipped to handle a difficult U.S. leader. The data reveals that Poilievre’s perceived toughness aligns with the public’s desire for a defender on the international stage, even as they remain wary of Trump’s policies.
For the Liberals, a Trump victory offers little political upside. While their progressive values might contrast starkly with Trump’s, that juxtaposition doesn’t seem to translate into increased support. Instead, the Conservatives appear better positioned to capitalize on a second Trump term. As Canadians prioritize practical leadership over ideological purity, the outcome of the next U.S. election could bolster Poilievre’s case for leadership at home, presenting yet another challenge for the Liberals as they struggle to redefine their path forward.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
But the frustrations and anxiety caused by higher prices seem to be one significant common denominator — the factor David Coletto, the pollster at Abacus Data, recently dubbed “inflationitis.”
Canadians have had more than two weeks to let Donald Trump’s reelection sink in here, and a new poll from Abacus Data shows that most of us think having him back in the White House is overall bad news for this country.
Location: Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa, Toronto & Halifax. Though this position will be primarily remote following training, an Analyst needs to be Ontario based, with the ability to commute into one of our physical offices 2-3 times a week for the first month.
Compensation: Salary: $45,000 to $75,000 of total compensation is typical for an Analyst / Senior Analyst role. However the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
When we grow, you grow. As a member of our team you are eligible for an annual performance bonus based on the overall performance of the company and your part in it.
Expected start date: Mid December-January 2025, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity: Abacus Data is expanding and we’re looking for someone who is excited to learn and grow in a fast-paced, dynamic work environment. If you’re early in your career, curious to learn new things, thoughtful, detail-oriented, and most importantly, friendly, this could be a great fit for you.
As an ideal candidate, you have some background in social research, having taken a class or two in university or college, and maybe even worked in the industry for a few years. But more importantly, you want to learn and grow in a job that will expose you to all aspects of our work. We want a team member who loves to solve problems, find creative ways of doing things, and likes checking off to-do lists.
Primary Responsibilities:
Play an important role in the quality control of all outgoing surveys, testing logic and ensuring all piping is functioning correctly.
Prepare detailed and clean working datasets from raw survey datafiles, including tasks like building custom variables, setting filters, compiling segments and setting coding parameters for open ended responses.
Author strong first drafts of research reports under the guidance of our senior research leads and consultants, inclusive of building tables & charts and preliminary written analysis.
Requirements: Though we welcome industry experienced candidates to apply, the most important criteria for this role is a strong interest in public opinion research, a willingness to learn, demonstrable data literacy, and basic writing aptitude.
Problem solver who wants to learn and grow in a dynamic, fast-paced environment.
Prior research experience is an asset, but not a requirement.
An analytical mind, comfortable with numbers and data.
Advanced math or data software skills are not required but would be an asset.
Clear evidence of being detail-oriented, with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
Ability to work with minimal supervision
University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement and will not be an impediment to your application, but please clearly specify if you are.
Apply by November 29th at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this role, please send a CV to Ihor Korbabicz at careers@abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 2741894 – Analyst/Senior Analyst” in the subject line. If you are coming from outside the public opinion research industry, sending a writing sample with your application is encouraged.
Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
Location: Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa, Toronto & Halifax. A Consultant can be based anywhere in Canada but will need to be able to commute to our Ottawa office for an initial orientation and other occasional travel for corporate events.
Compensation: Salary: $65,000 to $85,000 of total compensation is typical for a Consultant role. However the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
When we grow, you grow. As a member of our team you are eligible for an annual performance bonus based on the overall performance of the company and your part in it.
Expected start date: Mid December-January 2025, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity: At Abacus Data, a premier Canadian public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our research team.
In these roles, you will work closely with the firm’s executive team to help service the firm’s growing roster of public and private sector clients, with abundant opportunities to take on clients on your own & craft a research specialization as the company grows.
In the immediate term, this role will see you work on research files with the supervision of a senior lead, acting as the principal author & project manager of Abacus’ custom research survey projects.
The Consultant is responsible for assisting team leads in managing client relationships, overseeing the survey fielding & reporting process, and writing compelling, timely and strategic research reports based on public opinion survey results.
Responsibilities:
Work closely with senior research team leads to design & analyze the results of public opinion research surveys.
Liaise with the fielding & analytics team to ensure surveys are being programmed & graphically reported according to client & firm expectations.
Write high-quality analysis prose reports for our clients that are error-free, valuable, and meet the standards of our leadership team.
Manage other day to day responsibilities of research projects as directed by the senior team, including client consultation, proposal development, creation of research instruments, analysis, and presentation of final deliverables.
Requirements: The most important criteria for this role is a strong public affairs writing background with a demonstrable ability to understand data, think strategically and synthesize ideas. If you can demonstrate proficiency here but have no survey research experience, we would still be thrilled to hear from you.
3 to 7 years of experience in a research role designing, executing and analyzing public opinion research projects.
Experience analyzing data and helping clients use data to make decisions.
An analytical mind that is excited about telling stories using data and research.
A team-oriented disposition, with the ability to contribute to a positive and productive work environment.
Clear evidence of being detail-oriented with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
Ability to create stunning presentations that tell the story in our data to our clients and potential clients.
Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem-solving, and communication skills.
Ability to work with minimal supervision.
University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
Must be legally eligible to work in Canada.
Strong English language proficiency.
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement and will not be an impediment to your application, but please clearly specify if you are.
Apply by November 29th at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this role, please send a CV to Ihor Korbabicz at careers@abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 2743895 – Consultant/Senior Consultant” in the subject line. If you are coming from outside the public opinion research industry, sending a writing sample with your application is encouraged.
Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
From November 14 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only but all of the interviews we done following the U.S. Presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory. It’s our first survey after the U.S. election.
Vote Intention: No Trump Bump. Conservatives ahead by 22. Liberals and NDP tied.
For the first time in our tracking since the Liberals were elected in 2015, we have the Liberals and NDP numerically tied for second place.
If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 21% would vote for the Liberals and the NDP, and 4% for the Greens. The BQ has 36% of the vote in Quebec. The Conservative vote share is up 2, the NDP is up 1 while the Liberals are down 1 since earlier this month.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 9 in BC, 38 in Alberta, 31 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 23-points in Ontario, and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 13 with the Liberals two points further back.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.
Outside of Quebec, the NDP is slightly ahead of the Liberals (23% to 21%) with 48% voting Conservative.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger continues to be smaller than older cohorts.
Of note, among millennials, only 15% say they will vote Liberal – the lowest we have measured Liberal support among that generation.
45% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women.
The Conservative lead is larger again among those who say they are most certain to vote – 45% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share increases even more in Quebec since its support is more concentrated among older Quebecers.
The mood of the country has deteriorated slightly with only 24% thinking the country’s headed in the right direction. We have seen an increase in Canadians who think the United States is headed in the right direction, up 7 to 22% while those who think the world is off on the wrong track is up 6 to 72%.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (unchanged) while disapproval is down one to 61%.
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (unchanged) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been but his positives are trending upward from 29% in September to 32% today. His net favourability score is -7.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 40% have a positive view (up 2) while 37% have a negative view (down 1) for a net score of +3. Trump’s election has had no impact on views towards Pierre Poilievre.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next electiongrows.
More than half of Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since January, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 11-points. In contrast, 16% think the Liberals will win while 8% expect an NDP victory. 22% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “We don’t see any “Trump Bump” for the Liberals following Donald Trump election victory. Almost all of the key metrics are unchanged from our survey before the election.
But for the first time in our tracking since the 2015 election, we have the NDP and Liberals tied nationally at 21% for second place. And today, more Canadians think the Conservatives are going to win the next election.
Impressions of neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre have changed. We will have a deep dive on what Canadians think about who is best to deal with Trump and what approach they think the federal government should take later this week or Monday.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Debbie Gamble, Chief Strategy and Marketing Officer at Interac Corp. in conversation with David Coletto, Founder, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data.
Canadians are rapidly adopting digital financial services, creating new opportunities as well as challenges.
As the country increasingly swaps cash for entirely digital alternatives, the barriers between individuals and businesses and their money are falling, enabling convenience through technology, but that could add new security and fraud challenges to the equation.
Imagine you’re tasked with advocating for a new public policy that could significantly improve housing access. You know the stakes are high, and getting this right could make a meaningful difference, but how do you find the words that resonate with policymakers, elected officials, or influential government stakeholders? Crafting the perfect message is both an art and a science, and in the realm of public affairs, words can mean the difference between success and being overlooked.
This is where online research communities designed and executed by the best public affairs research team in Canada step into the spotlight. These digital gathering spaces provide an innovative way to test and refine advocacy language, offering a platform for engaging with diverse audiences to ensure your message hits the mark. In this edition of The Abacus Way, we’ll guide you through the process of leveraging online research communities, showing you how they can help you gain confidence, outmaneuver competitors, and craft messages that truly break through.
Understanding Online Research Communities – What Are Online Research Communities?
Online research communities are virtual platforms where groups of people come together to share ideas, opinions, and feedback. They’re like digital focus groups, but with more flexibility and depth. These communities allow participants to engage in discussions, answer surveys, and provide insights on various topics, all within an online environment. This makes them an ideal tool for public affairs professionals seeking to refine their advocacy language.
How Do They Function?
Participants in online research communities are usually selected to represent a broad spectrum of perspectives, ensuring a diversity of opinions. They are moderated by Abacus Data team members who who guide discussions and ensure productive dialogue. The digital nature of these communities means they can be accessed from anywhere, making it easier to gather data from a wide geographical area.
Why Are They Valuable?
Unlike traditional research methods, online communities offer real-time feedback and a dynamic interaction environment. They provide a space where public affairs professionals can test different messaging approaches, gather immediate reactions, and adjust strategies accordingly. This iterative process aids in identifying language that resonates most effectively with target audiences.
Crafting Messages That Resonate – Leveraging Insights for Message Development
With online research communities, you can explore various ways of framing your issue to find the most effective approach. By presenting different scenarios or statements to participants, you can analyze which words, phrases, or arguments generate the strongest response. This data-driven approach ensures your message is not just heard, but remembered.
Beating the Competition
In the competitive world of public affairs, having the right message can be your greatest asset. Online communities allow you to test your messaging against that of your competitors or those on the other side of an issue, identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. This gives you a strategic advantage, enabling you to refine your language until it stands out in a crowded landscape.
Building Confidence with Deep, Qualitative Insights
There’s no substitute for confidence backed by deep insights. Identify unmet needs and knowing that your advocacy language has been honed through rigorous research provides the assurance needed to present your case convincingly. Online communities offer the quantitative and qualitative insights necessary to support your strategies with concrete evidence.
Words That Work, Frames That Function – The Power of Precision
In advocacy, every word counts. Online research communities help you zero in on the language that precisely conveys your message while aligning with the values and priorities of your audience. This precision is crucial when communicating complex ideas in a way that is both accessible and compelling.
Framing for Impact
A well-crafted frame can change how your audience perceives an issue. By experimenting with different frames within an online community, you can discover which narratives resonate most effectively. This empowers you to shape the conversation and guide stakeholders toward your perspective.
Framing for Impact
The ultimate goal of any advocacy effort is to break through the noise and make a lasting impact. Online communities enable you to refine your arguments until they are clear, persuasive, and aligned with the needs and values of your audience. This leads to advocacy language that not only captures attention but also inspires action.
Partnering for Success – Expertise You Can Trust
Partnering with Abacus Data research professionals and strategists using online research communities provides you with the guidance and support needed to maximize the potential of this powerful tool. Our team of professionals brings a wealth of experience in public affairs and market research, ensuring you receive insights tailored to your needs.
Tailored Solutions for Your Needs
Every advocacy campaign is unique, and our solutions are designed to meet the specific challenges you face. Whether you’re navigating a complex policy landscape or seeking to engage a diverse audience, we offer the strategies and tools necessary to achieve your goals.
A Proven Track Record
We’ve helped numerous clients refine their advocacy language and achieve remarkable results. From non-profits, charities, unions, associations, and corporations, our clients have successfully used online research communities to craft messages that resonate and drive change. We invite you to join them and discover the difference this approach can make.
Tailored Solutions for Your Needs
If you’re ready to elevate your advocacy efforts and craft language that truly resonates, we encourage you to reach out for a 20-minute consultation. Let’s explore how our online research communities can empower you to achieve your goals and make a lasting impact.
Contact us today and let’s begin a conversation about the future of your advocacy initiatives.
