Ford PCs ahead by 9 as Ontario Liberal leadership race kicks off: Abacus Data Poll

From June 6 to 11, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 adults living in Ontario and asked several questions about Ontario politics.

The full results can be found here:

Here’s a quick summary of the results:

  • The PCs lead the Ontario Liberals by 9 province-wide. Since March, the PC vote share among committed respondents is down 5 while the NDP share is up 3.
  • The PCs are well ahead among those aged 45 and over while the NDP and Liberals do better among those under 45.
  • 74% feel it’s time for a change and 26% believe Doug Ford and the PCs deserve to be re-elected. But among those who want change, 29% say there isn’t a good alternative to Ford and the PCs.
  • Ford’s net impression is -16, Stiles is 0 while John Fraser is -8.
  • We also tested impressions of the candidates running or may run for the Ontario Liberal leadership. Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie is the best known of the candidates and has a net favourable rating of +12.


The survey was conducted with 1,000 Ontario adults from June 6 to 11, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:


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