For the last year we have been tracking Canadian public opinion on public education in Canada on behalf of The Canadian Teachers’ Federation (CTF/FCE). The results below are from an online survey conducted September 26th to October 6th with 2,000 adults in Canada.
Below are some of the key findings and metrics we’ve been tracking over the last two years.
To begin, Canadians across the political spectrum believe public education is an important public expenditure.
90% of Canadians consider public education to be one of the most important public institutions in Canada. This number has not budged for three years, throughout a time when government budgets have been tested.
Beyond the general concept of spending on education in Canada, Canadians even go so far as to say that education, which is a provincial budget item, is one of the most important public expenditures in their province/territory.
This sentiment is felt more strongly among those who are parents themselves (46% of parents with school-aged children strongly agree with this statement), but even for those who are not parents and not accessing public schools- this line item is important. 9 in 10 Canadians who are not parents feel public education is one of the most important public expenditures.
There is also support across the political spectrum, 90%+ of CPC, LPC and NDP voters say public education is one of the most important public expenditures.
But there are concerns about the quality of public education. Canadians rate the quality of their public education as moderate, and even lower in certain areas.
Altogether, 40% rate the quality of the publicly funded education system in their province/territory as excellent or good (just 7% say excellent, however). 39% say the quality is okay. And 21% rate the quality as poor (only 5% saying very poor).
Across the country, ratings vary but are moderate across the board.
Scores range between 29-54%, highest in Newfoundland and Labrador and lowest in Quebec.
A particular and growing challenge is the shortage of teachers.
Three quarters of Canadians feel there is a shortage of teachers in their community. This number has only grown since we began tracking it in 2022, when it was at 67%. This is a 7-point jump in individuals who say there is a shortage of teachers in their community.
Quebec continues to have elevated concerns about a teacher shortage with 88% of Quebec residents saying there is a shortage of teachers in their community. This is followed by those in the North and New Brunswick of which 88% and 78%, respectively say there is a shortage of teachers in their community.
Parents have a higher degree of concern about the issue (79% of parents of children under 18) say there is a shortage of teachers in their community. Still, even for those without children in the school system (either current or ever) the majority feel there is a shortage of teachers.
Such a strong link is likely due to the role Canadians feel teachers play in creating a strong public education system. 80% of Canadians feel teachers play a considerable role in creating a strong, public education system. Considerably higher than any other stakeholders.
Still, Canadians believe a strong public education system is created with collaboration, with teachers leading influence. Two-thirds+ believe CTF/FCE, teachers unions, the Ministry of Education in their province/territory, and school boards all play a role in creating a strong public education system.
A strong quality education system is directly linked to teachers playing a large role in creating that system.
Canadians who say their education system is of good quality are twice as likely to say teachers played a big role in creating that system. For Canadians who say their education system is of poor quality, only 18% believe teachers were able to play a big role.
Addressing the quality of education in Canada is paramount. Not only is it a worthy public expenditure, Canadians feel our public education system is vital to our quality of life and identity.
92% of Canadians say high quality publicly-funded education is important for our quality of life.
90% say public education is a fundamental pillar of equality.
89% say high quality publicly funded education is part of our Canadian identity.
This sentiment is true whether someone is a parent or not, and across the political spectrum.
THE UPSHOT
There is no doubt Canadians place a great deal of importance on our publicly funded education systems. In the words of Canadians, it is one of our most important public expenditures, important for quality of life and central to our identities as Canadians. Still, we feel the system could be better. Given the importance of teachers in the education system and the shortages our communities face- supporting educators in finding solutions to this system challenge is a great place to start.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from September 26 to October 6, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Teachers’ Federation.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
But first, a message from Abacus Data founder and CEO, David Coletto:
We love elections at Abacus Data. Exploring what people think and feel and how that impacts their behaviours at work, as consumers, and as citizens is at the core of what we do.
And so, with less than two weeks to go until Election Day in Nova Scotia, we are excited to share the results from our second provincial election survey with you and start exploring how voter preferences and opinions are changing over time.
In case you missed our big announcement last week: Abacus Data is proud to be investing in Atlantic Canada. We have opened an office in Halifax and Kelly Bennett has joined our team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada Lead.
Together, we will serve clients in Atlantic Canada with the same curious, thoughtful, and hospitality-inspired approach that has made Abacus the most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm in Canada.
To learn more about our investment and expansion in Atlantic Canada, click here.
Now to the survey results.
The results indicate that the Nova Scotia PC Party and Premier Tim Houston have increased their lead over the opposition parties with the campaign having yet to fundamentally shift preferences or opinions about the political choices in Nova Scotia.
Here are the key takeaways from our second survey of the campaign:
The Issues
Fixing healthcare, affordability and housing remain the top three issues likely to impact the way Nova Scotians vote on election day, but the salience of those issues has dropped a bit since our first survey, with other issues like cutting taxes staying the same and population growth appearing to gathering steam.
Since our first NS election survey, healthcare as a top issue is down 5 points, affordability is down 3 points, and housing is down 3 points.
Cutting taxes finishes fourth again, with no change since the first survey.
And population growth is up 3 points, growing the economy is up 2 points, and fighting climate change is up 6 points.
When voters who identify healthcare, affordability, housing and/or reducing taxes as their top issues are asked which party they think will be best able to handle those issues, the PCs finish first on three of the four top issues. They lead the Liberals and NDP by 15-points on “fixing healthcare”, lead the NDP by 10-points on “making life more affordable”, and lead the Liberals by 12-points on “reducing taxes”.
Only on “improving housing and reducing homelessness” do the PCs slightly trail the NDP (28% to 25%).
The PCs also lead among people who identify “growing the economy and creating good jobs,” “managing population growth”, and “improving roads” as their top issues.
And the PCs are in fourth place on the party Nova Scotians who rate climate change and the environment as a top issue (the Greens lead on that issue).
The Leaders
Our second election survey also confirms that Tim Houston is well-known to voters. 73% of eligible voters currently feel they have a very good or pretty good idea who the incumbent Premier is and what he stands for, remaining high overall and high in most segments.
Familiarity with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and NDP Leader Claudia Chender has improved a little bit since the first week of the election, but remains much lower than it is for Tim Houston.
While the same proportion (48%) of voters have at least a pretty good idea of who Zach Churchill is (unchanged from the start of the campaign), there has been a 5-point decrease in those who say they don’t know much about him at all (26% to 21%).
For NDP Leader Claudia Chender, we see a similar change. Familiarity with Claudia Chender as a person and a leader is the same as it was at the start of the campaign (36% vs. 37%), but the proportion of those who don’t know her at all is down 5-points (28% to 23%).
When we ask Nova Scotians about their impressions of the party leaders, Tim Houston continues to be viewed positively by 37% of eligible voters (only down 1 point since our first survey) and negatively by 29% (down 5) for a net score of +8, representing an improvement since the start of the campaign.
In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +6 (down since the start) and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +26 (an improvement).
This set of results also confirms that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are well-liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -32 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -14 in the province.
HAVE OTHER INDICATORS SHIFTED SINCE THE START OF THE CAMPAIGN?
The desire for change has also lessened a bit.
In our first Nova Scotia election poll, 50% of eligible voters told us they definitely wanted to see a change in government in Nova Scotia. Today, that figure is 46% (down 4 points). And those who definitely want to see the Houston PC government re-elected is holding steady at 20%.
This is more good news for the PCs, with these trends as well as the slightly higher voter intentions, favouring them to win the election.
The desire for change in Nova Scotia right now is also about the same as it was in British Columbia where the incumbent NDP recently eked out a victory.
Even among those who definitely want to see a change in government, 16% of eligible voters in Nova Scotia still say they plan to vote PC, an increase of 7-points since the start of the campaign.
And the NDP and Liberals currently split the-solid-change-vote 30% to 27% for the NDP.
The Undecided
What is much less clear is which direction eligible voters who have not made their minds-up yet will go.
With less than two weeks remaining in the provincial election, 22% of all eligible voters in Nova Scotia remain undecided and a significant proportion of voters who are definitely wanting a change in government remain undecided, representing about 10% of the total electorate.
If these groups consolidate around one opposition party, the PC margin could shrink substantially, lifting that party to second place or maybe even better.
It is also important to note that in the last provincial election, 35% of current strong-change-voters voted Liberal, 14% voted PC, 6% NDP and 35% didn’t vote.
Every election is, however, different and the Liberals and NDP also had other leaders in 2021, with Zach Churchill and Claudia Chender leading their first provincial campaigns.
Tim Houston leads by 15 on “Best Premier”
When we ask Nova Scotians which of the party leaders they think would make the best Premier, Tim Houston continues to finish far ahead of the other party leaders. 35% pick the current Premier, 20% chose Liberal Leader Zach Churchill, while 18% select NDP Leader Claudia Chender. And 25% are unsure.
And Now, Vote Choice: PCs lead by 22
All of these metrics lead to a larger PC lead than we measured earlier in the campaign.
If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win a large majority than they won in 2021. 47% of committed Nova Scotians would vote PC (up 2 since our last survey), 25% would vote Liberal (unchanged), while 23% would vote NDP (down 3). 4% would vote Green. 22% say they are undecided down 3 from our first survey.
Regionally, the PCs and NDP remain statistically tied in Halifax (HRM) while the PCs lead by 33 in other parts of the province. The PCs also lead in urban and rural communities, although their lead in rural Nova Scotia is substantially larger (30 points vs. 18 points).
Demographically, the PCs lead by a wide margin among those aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin among those aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP among those aged 18 to 29.
The PCs also lead among men and women with almost an equal share of the vote across both genders.
The Enthusiasm Gap has Closed
Earlier in the campaign, we noted that the PCs had an advantage over the other parties because their voters seem more enthusiastic to vote. That “enthusiasm” gap seems to have shrunk.
Among the 51% of the electorate who tell us that they are “extremely motivated” to vote, the PCs have a smaller lead than across the entire electorate – 45% to 29% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
Today, 60% of Liberal supporters say they are extremely motivated to vote (up 11) compared with 49% of PC supporters (down 16) and 47% of NDP supporters. (down 5)
These motivated Liberal supporters tend to be more female (63%), 78% have a post-secondary education, and 76% of them voted for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in 2021. Could this be a Trump-effect in Nova Scotia? We don’t have enough evidence to validate this theory, but it’s something we will continue to watch.
Although enthusiasm among PC supporters may be down, they continue to be firmer in their support than other party supporters. 60% of PC supporters say they will not change their mind. They already know they are voting PC. 53% of Liberal voters and 36% of NDP voters responded the same way.
Second Choice Preferences
When we ask people with a vote preference which party is their second choice, we find that 1 in 3 PC supporters say they don’t have a second choice. Another 31% say the NDP is their second choice, and 23% point to the Liberals.
Among Liberal supporters, 56% say their second choice is the NDP while 30% say the PCs.
For NDP supporters, 45% say the Liberals, 32% say the Greens, while 17% say the PCs.
These results make consolidation of the not-PC vote unlikely given the fragmentation of the second-choice preferences among NDP and Liberal supporters.
Who do Nova Scotians think will win the election?
Half of Nova Scotians believe that the PCs will win the provincial election, a three point increase from our last survey. 16% think the Liberals will win and only 6% expect an NDP victory.
UPSHOT
According to Kelly Bennett: “Tim Houston and his PC party started the provincial election riding high in the polls and that advantage continues to grow. The PCs have increased their committed voter numbers by 2 points in the last week, inching closer to the 50% mark, while the other parties continue to battle it out for second place.
If the provincial election was held today, Tim Houston and the PCs would likely win a larger majority than they did in 2021.
In the final two weeks of the campaign, it will be interesting to see which direction undecided voters decide to move in. If they turnout, their choice could close the gap with the PCs and put one of the main opposition parties ahead of the other.
With the party leaders hitting the debate stage on November 14th (for a live, 90-minute debate hosted by CBC), Zach Churchill and Claudia Cheder will have one of the best chances they are going to get to introduce themselves to Nova Scotians later this week.
For them, the stakes seem really high. They need to perform well on the debate stage to win-over as many undecided voters as they can, whereas the incumbent Premier only needs to stay the course, stick to his messages, and not say or do anything that will turn his many supporters off.”
According to David Coletto: “As we pass the halfway mark of the campaign, the Nova Scotia PCs and Tim Houston remain in the driver’s seat. The desire for change is not threatening, the Premier is relatively well liked, and neither of the opposition parties have been able to consolidate the change vote, at least up until this point.
However, some of the other things we are seeing should concern the PC campaign. Enthusiasm among PC supporters has dropped a little bit, perhaps as complacency begins to set in. Most voters think the PCs are going to win the election.
10% of the electorate definitely wants a change in government, but is still undecided about how they will vote. If all or most of this group were to rally around one of the opposition parties, that would put a serious dent in the PC lead and at least determine second place.
Everything considered, we should still expect a large Progressive Conservative majority government to be elected on November 26th. What is more unknown is which party will form the official opposition.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from November 7 to 10, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
OTTAWA — The cost of food tops the list of Canadians’ anxieties about their finances, according to a new The Logic poll conducted by Abacus Data. Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://thelogic.co/news/exclusive/canada-food-prices-abacus-poll/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3dt52wW6lDHLD2hoj0V_ZL
From October 31 to November 5, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only.
Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 19 over the Liberals
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 20% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 38% of the vote in Quebec. The Conservative vote share is down 3 while the NDP and PPC vote shares are up 2 each respectively.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, 36 in Alberta, 32 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and by 18 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12 with the Conservatives a further two points back.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.
Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied well back of the Conservatives who have almost half of the vote share.
Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger Canadians has dropped.
The Conservatives lead by a wide margin among Canadians aged 45 and older, and have a sizeable lead among the younger cohorts. The NDP vote share is up in our sample among those aged 30 to 44.
48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women – both down 3 since last wave.
The Conservative lead is larger again among those who say they are most certain to vote – 44% to 21%. The BQ’s vote share increases even more in Quebec since its support is more concentrated among older Quebecers.
The mood of the country has improved slightly with 27% feeling the country is headed in the right direction while 60% feel it’s off on the wrong track. We will monitor this to see if it’s the start of a new trend of increasing optimism.
The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.
Today, 25% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (up 1) while disapproval is up one (62%).
Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (up 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.
And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been. Today 30% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 39% have a negative view for a net score of -9.
Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 38% have a positive view (down 3) while 38% have a negative view (up 1) for a net score of 0.
Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election holds.
Halfof Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since january, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 7-points. In contrast, 18% think the Liberals will win while 10% expect an NDP victory. 22% remain unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The opinion environment prior to Donald Trump’s election on Tuesday was very similar to what it has been for over a year now. We see no shift in perceptions as Canadians continue to seek political change and the Conservatives continue to benefit the most from this holding onto a clear lead nationally, across most demographics, and across almost all regions of the country.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from October 31 to November 5, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From October 31 to November 5, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 998 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we also explore how people feel about the provincial government’s new policy towards bike lanes and how people are reacting to the $200 rebate cheques set to hit mailboxes in the new year.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 16 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 22%, and the Greens at 7%.
All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous survey.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 22 points in the GTHA, ahead by 13 in eastern Ontario, and by 20 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 7, although the PC Party’s lead in the city is down 7 points.
The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.
They are well ahead among men (23-point lead), lead by 8 among women, and lead among Ontarians aged 30 and over. Among those aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and PCs are tied.
The government’s approval rating is also down slightly. Today 33% approve of the job performance of the provincial government (down 3) while 43% disapprove (+1).
Doug Ford’s personal numbers have deterioriated slightly over the past month.
34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (unchanged), while negative views are up slightly to 45% (up 3) for a net score of -9. Ford’s net favourability score is the lowest it’s been since we started tracking leader favourability in April.
Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -9 (unchanged) and NDP leader Marit Stiles has a slightly net positive impression at +1.
Bike Lanes and Provincial Intervention
In this survey, we also asked some questions about bike lanes and the provincial government’s new policy on oversight of municipal decision making and the removal bike lanes in municipalities it deems to impact the flow of vehicle traffic on major roads.
For context, when we ask people what their main mode of travel is in their community, 68% of Ontarians say they get around by car or truck, 18% by public transit, 9% walk, 4% by taxi or Uber, and 2% by bike.
Those in Toronto are much more likely to rely on public transit than those in other parts of the province, including in the GTHA.
There is also a strong correlation between mode of travel and vote intention. Among those who get around their community primarily by car or truck, 48% would vote PC today compared with 22% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
Among those who get around primarily by public transit, 38% would vote Liberal, 27% PC, and 20% NDP.
When it comes to riding a bike, about 1 in 3 Ontarians say they regularly or occasionally ride a bike and share the road with cars. In Toronto, that number rises to 42%. Almost half of Ontarians say they never ride a bike and share the road with cars.
When it comes to the provincial government’s new policy towards bike lanes – which we describe as a “new proposed law that would require municipalities to get provincial approval to install new bike lanes in any Ontario municipality and would prohibit new separated lanes if infrastructure interferes with existing vehicle traffic”, 37% say they are very or somewhat familiar with the policy. 1 in 4 Ontarians have never heard about it. In total 76% are aware of the proposal.
When we ask whether they think it is a good idea or a bad idea, 25% think it’s a good idea, 30% think it’s an acceptable idea, 28% think its a bad idea while 17% are unsure.
We don’t find much regional variation on reaction. Most current PC supporters think the idea is good or acceptable. Only 12% of PC supporters think it’s a bad idea.
About 1 in 4 Ontarians think that preventing new bike lanes or removing bike lanes from major roads will ease traffic congestion a lot. Another 41% think it will help a little. Those in Toronto are 5-points more likely to think it will ease traffic a lot than Ontarians on average.
Despite the fact that the provincial govenment’s proposal more support than resistance, public opinion is more divided when it comes to bike lanes more generally. 41% think they are essential for safety and provide necessary alternatives to car travel while 38% think they contribute to traffic congestion and should be more strategically place. 20% don’t have a view either way.
It’s clear bike lanes are an effectively political wedge, especially since the PCs are pretty much alone on the side of removing them while the opposition parties are all together on the side of bike lanes being good.
What about those $200 rebate cheques?
7 in 10 Ontarians think the proposal to send a $200 cheque to every adult and child in Ontario is either a good idea (46%) or an acceptable idea (26%) with 21% thinking it’s a bad idea.
Support for the rebate cheques is highest in Toronto and among younger Ontarians. Only 10% of PC supporters think it’s a bad idea.
When ask people whether it is better to use the $3 billion the rebate cheques are estimated to cost on the rebate cheques or to improve public services like healthcare or education, there’s a clear split in opinion. 48% think the money should be used to improve public services while 43% think it should be used for the rebate cheques.
There are some interesting splits by age. Those aged 18 to 29 and those aged 45 to 59 are more likely to prefer the rebate cheques while seniors and millennials prefer the money to be used on improving public services. Interestingly, 1 in 3 of those who currently support the PC Party think the money should be used to improve public services rather than for the rebate cheques.
The Upshot
The PC Party continues to lead by a wide margin across the province. Although Premier Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating are down, the party remains well positioned to be re-elected in large part because of the split across the opposition parties.
The provincial government’s efforts to alleviate traffic and address the cost of living are generally well received, especially among the party’s support base. While people aren’t enthusasiatic about the bike lane policy and not everyone thinks sending $200 cheques to all Ontarians is a good use of the money, the PCs continue to address the concerns of its core audience and as a result has kept them loyal and supportive of the Premier and the PC Party.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 998 eligible voters in Ontario from October 31 to November 5, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From October 31 to November 5, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 998 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we also explore how people feel about the provincial government’s new policy towards bike lanes and how people are reacting to the $200 rebate cheques set to hit mailboxes in the new year.
Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 16 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 26%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 22%, and the Greens at 7%.
All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous survey.
Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 22 points in the GTHA, ahead by 13 in eastern Ontario, and by 20 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 7, although the PC Party’s lead in the city is down 7 points.
The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.
They are well ahead among men (23-point lead), lead by 8 among women, and lead among Ontarians aged 30 and over. Among those aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and PCs are tied.
The government’s approval rating is also down slightly. Today 33% approve of the job performance of the provincial government (down 3) while 43% disapprove (+1).
Doug Ford’s personal numbers have deterioriated slightly over the past month.
34% have a positive view of Premier Ford (unchanged), while negative views are up slightly to 45% (up 3) for a net score of -9. Ford’s net favourability score is the lowest it’s been since we started tracking leader favourability in April.
Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -9 (unchanged) and NDP leader Marit Stiles has a slightly net positive impression at +1.
Bike Lanes and Provincial Intervention
In this survey, we also asked some questions about bike lanes and the provincial government’s new policy on oversight of municipal decision making and the removal bike lanes in municipalities it deems to impact the flow of vehicle traffic on major roads.
For context, when we ask people what their main mode of travel is in their community, 68% of Ontarians say they get around by car or truck, 18% by public transit, 9% walk, 4% by taxi or Uber, and 2% by bike.
Those in Toronto are much more likely to rely on public transit than those in other parts of the province, including in the GTHA.
There is also a strong correlation between mode of travel and vote intention. Among those who get around their community primarily by car or truck, 48% would vote PC today compared with 22% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.
Among those who get around primarily by public transit, 38% would vote Liberal, 27% PC, and 20% NDP.
When it comes to riding a bike, about 1 in 3 Ontarians say they regularly or occasionally ride a bike and share the road with cars. In Toronto, that number rises to 42%. Almost half of Ontarians say they never ride a bike and share the road with cars.
When it comes to the provincial government’s new policy towards bike lanes – which we describe as a “new proposed law that would require municipalities to get provincial approval to install new bike lanes in any Ontario municipality and would prohibit new separated lanes if infrastructure interferes with existing vehicle traffic”, 37% say they are very or somewhat familiar with the policy. 1 in 4 Ontarians have never heard about it. In total 76% are aware of the proposal.
When we ask whether they think it is a good idea or a bad idea, 25% think it’s a good idea, 30% think it’s an acceptable idea, 28% think its a bad idea while 17% are unsure.
We don’t find much regional variation on reaction. Most current PC supporters think the idea is good or acceptable. Only 12% of PC supporters think it’s a bad idea.
About 1 in 4 Ontarians think that preventing new bike lanes or removing bike lanes from major roads will ease traffic congestion a lot. Another 41% think it will help a little. Those in Toronto are 5-points more likely to think it will ease traffic a lot than Ontarians on average.
Despite the fact that the provincial govenment’s proposal more support than resistance, public opinion is more divided when it comes to bike lanes more generally. 41% think they are essential for safety and provide necessary alternatives to car travel while 38% think they contribute to traffic congestion and should be more strategically place. 20% don’t have a view either way.
It’s clear bike lanes are an effectively political wedge, especially since the PCs are pretty much alone on the side of removing them while the opposition parties are all together on the side of bike lanes being good.
What about those $200 rebate cheques?
7 in 10 Ontarians think the proposal to send a $200 cheque to every adult and child in Ontario is either a good idea (46%) or an acceptable idea (26%) with 21% thinking it’s a bad idea.
Support for the rebate cheques is highest in Toronto and among younger Ontarians. Only 10% of PC supporters think it’s a bad idea.
When ask people whether it is better to use the $3 billion the rebate cheques are estimated to cost on the rebate cheques or to improve public services like healthcare or education, there’s a clear split in opinion. 48% think the money should be used to improve public services while 43% think it should be used for the rebate cheques.
There are some interesting splits by age. Those aged 18 to 29 and those aged 45 to 59 are more likely to prefer the rebate cheques while seniors and millennials prefer the money to be used on improving public services. Interestingly, 1 in 3 of those who currently support the PC Party think the money should be used to improve public services rather than for the rebate cheques.
The Upshot
The PC Party continues to lead by a wide margin across the province. Although Premier Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating are down, the party remains well positioned to be re-elected in large part because of the split across the opposition parties.
The provincial government’s efforts to alleviate traffic and address the cost of living are generally well received, especially among the party’s support base. While people aren’t enthusasiatic about the bike lane policy and not everyone thinks sending $200 cheques to all Ontarians is a good use of the money, the PCs continue to address the concerns of its core audience and as a result has kept them loyal and supportive of the Premier and the PC Party.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 998 eligible voters in Ontario from October 31 to November 5, 2024.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
The Abacus Data survey findings include: Only 31 per cent of Canadians rate the … Abacus Data Founder and CEO, David Coletto. “Building the … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.ontarioconstructionnews.com/canadians-see-looming-infrastructure-issues-on-the-horizon-ccppp-poll/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw1rD1oFBksaxDBAT0zUYyxA
Last month, Abacus Data released the results of a national survey of 1,900 people, showing that 40 per cent of committed voters surveyed in … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://halifax.citynews.ca/2024/11/05/nova-scotia-election-tory-leader-wont-invite-pierre-poilievre-to-join-campaign/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw237aAIkhwnAtijmzNMgoFk
Last week, we released the initial results from our first poll in Nova Scotia as voters weigh their choices during the provincial election. In this report, we take a closer look at the issue of population growth – as part of our ongoing coverage of the provincial election in Nova Scotia.
In case you missed our big announcement on Saturday: We are investing in Atlantic Canada by opening an office in Halifax and adding Kelly Bennett to our team as Vice President & Atlantic Lead. New and existing clients in Atlantic Canada can expect the same quality, depth and national experience from us that has made Abacus Data the most influential, sought-after, and impactful polling and market research company in Canada.
To learn more about our expansion and investment in Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada, click here.
When reading today’s report, it is also important to note that Nova Scotia’s population grown substantially in the past decade and thousands of new people continue to move to the province from other parts of Canada and around the world.
This big change in demographic fortunes has created other growing pains in Nova Scotia. With the provincial election now underway, the party leaders and their candidates have the difficult task of explaining how they will improve infrastructure and services and do a better job of managing population growth.
That’s the context for this research.
Now, to the results.
—
For most Nova Scotians, population growth is not some abstract thing, that’s happening far away. It hits very close to home.
Our provincial election polling indicates that 77% of eligible voters think the community where they live is growing. 39% think their community is growing “a lot” and another 38% think it’s growing “a bit.”
Some national polling we did this summer also tells us that concern about population growth is higher in Nova Scotia than it is in any other Canadian province.
Both findings remind us how up-close-and-personal this issue already is for voters – as they start to consider their electoral choices and tune in and out of the various provincial campaigns.
Population Growth an Issue Impacting Vote
If the current public opinion environment holds, population growth will be something that voters are thinking about as they cast their ballots.
Right now, the issue of managing population growth is not as important to voters as fixing healthcare, affordability, housing and cutting taxes, but it finishes ahead of other issues. And it’s clear perceptions about population growth are directly related to perceptions about those other issues as a scarcity mindset continues to inform and determine people’s thinking.
Some voters are also more inclined than others to really care about the issue.
When it comes to issue prioritization, the amount of growth someone sees in their home community makes a difference.
Voters who believe there is “a lot” of population growth in their community are far more likely to name it as one of the top issues influencing their vote than those who believe there is “a little” population growth in their community.
Voters who believe there is “a lot” of population growth in their community are also more likely to be dissatisfied with the general direction of the province and to be more critical of Tim Houston’s management of the issue in the past.
The linking of these three things – seeing a lot of growth in your community, with feeling dissatisfied with how things are going in Nova Scotia or with feeling dissatisfied with how the PCs have managed the issue in the past – should give all the provincial leaders and their candidates pause.
It shows that those who feel close to this issue really want change. They are looking for a new approach.
Population Growth and Voter Intentions
Although population growth is on many people’s minds and has come to inform and impact people’s perceptions about public policy choices in the province, it hasn’t yet had much impact on vote intentions.
For example, among those who think the population in Nova Scotia is growing “a lot”, 42% are voting PC, 29% are voting NDP, and 27% are voting Liberal. Among those who think the population is growing “a little bit” show similar vote intention patterns – 45% PC, 29%, Liberal, and 23% NDP. Among the rest of the electorate (and those who think the population is staying about the same or in decline), vote is 50% PC, 27% NDP, and 11% Liberal.
At this point perceptions about population growth don’t seem to be strongly related to vote, although the Liberals are doing better among people who think the population in Nova Scotia is growing faster.
Best Party to Deal with Population Growth
When we zoom out again and look at which party all voters think will be best at managing population growth in the future, things look better for Tim Houston and the PCs. They enjoy a comfortable lead.
Right now, 30% of eligible voters think Tim Houston and his party would be the most effective manager, compared to 19% for the Liberals and 17% for the NDP. Although, as with many other issues, about 1 in 3 Nova Scotians are unsure.
This is a good sign for the incumbent PCs, giving them a clear advantage on this issue to try to either hold or build upon, as the Liberals and the NDP continue to make the case that only they can be trusted do it differently.
Upshot
According to Kelly Bennett: Population growth is emerging as a ballot-box issue in Nova Scotia’s provincial election. At the end of the first week of campaigning, managing population growth is not as important an issue to eligible voters as fixing healthcare, affordability, improving housing, or cutting taxes, but it is definitely influencing the way some voters are thinking about their political choices, particularly those who see “a lot” of growth in their communities.
With the incumbent Premier and his party currently 19 points ahead in the election, and leading on this issue, it will be interesting to see if each party leader decides to talk more about population growth on the campaign trail — and if voters are turned-off or turned-on by what they hear.
And if Tim Houston, Zach Churchill and Claudia Chender do want to go for it and really dig-in on this issue: creating more linkages between population growth and their healthcare and housing agendas would be a good strategy.
And speaking directly to voters who already see “a lot” of growth in their communities would help the Liberals and the NDP, especially if they can show that the Houston government has not sufficiently dealt with the issue.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from October 28 to 31, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Image | APTOPIX Election 2024 Trump. Caption: Supporters of Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump enter a campaign rally … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.cbc.ca/lite/story/1.7372516&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3c9K25YecdyUdim3v9sFS1
