Housing Concerns Grow as Over Half of Canadians Fear Losing Their Home Due to Financial Changes

Recently, Abacus Data partnered with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada) to conduct a comprehensive national survey to examine the current state of housing in Canada. This study, which engaged 6,000 Canadian adults (aged 18 and older) and was conducted between September 26 and October 9, 2024, sheds light on the ongoing challenges of housing affordability and accessibility, revealing significant concerns across the country.

This report is the first in a series examining the current state of housing in Canada, with a spotlight on the pressing challenges of affordability and accessibility that have become key concerns for Canadians. The findings highlight the extensive impact of the housing crisis, as these issues continue to dominate public priorities and fuel widespread concern about housing insecurity.

Housing Remains a Central Concern as 2024 Concludes

As 2024 winds down, housing continues to dominate as a critical issue for Canadians. When asked about the most pressing challenges in their communities, 41% of Canadians identified housing affordability and accessibility among their top three priorities, second only to the cost of living (60%). This widespread concern highlights the interconnected nature of economic pressures and housing challenges.

Regional disparities further underline the crisis. Housing affordability and accessibility are of heightened concern in Quebec (47%), British Columbia (46%), and Ontario (43%), regions grappling with some of the steepest costs and most acute housing shortages.

Overall, 9 in 10 Canadians (88%) indicate that they are concerned with the current state of housing, a significant 8-point increase since September 2023. Younger Canadians (18-44) are especially worried, with 91% indicating concern. These numbers reflect growing unease about housing accessibility and affordability and highlight the increasing urgency for action at both local and national levels.

Fear of Financial Instability

Over half of Canadians (58%) are worried about their ability to afford their mortgage or rent, a 6-point increase since September 2023. Younger Canadians and lower-income households are feeling the greatest pressure. Among those aged 18-29, 68% express concern, while 66% of those aged 30-44 share similar fears. Additionally, 63% of Canadians earning under $50,000 annually report struggling to meet their monthly housing costs. These findings highlight the growing financial strain on vulnerable groups amid the ongoing housing crisis.

A striking 57% of Canadians fear losing their home, whether owned or rented, if their financial situation were to change, reflecting the fragile state of housing security across the country. This concern is especially acute among younger Canadians, with 65% of those aged 18-29 and 71% of those aged 30-44 expressing this fear. Similarly, 65% of households earning less than $50,000 annually share these worries. Regionally, residents of British Columbia (63%) and Ontario (61%) are significantly more likely to feel at risk. These findings underscore the precarious state of housing security, particularly for younger generations, low-income households, and those in high-cost regions.

The Personal Toll of the Housing Crisis

The housing market is having a profound and widespread impact on Canadians. Nearly half (43%) are experiencing financial strain, up 2 points since September 2023. Beyond finances, housing challenges are affecting well-being, with 35% reporting a negative impact on quality of life and 33% on mental health. The crisis is also driving relocation pressures, as 29% of Canadians feel forced to consider moving due to rising costs. Additionally, 25% report disruptions to family dynamics, while 24% face strained personal relationships. For 22%, housing issues are delaying or reducing plans for having children.

Demographic trends reveal that young Canadians are bearing the brunt of the housing crisis. Those aged 18-44 are significantly more likely to report that the crisis has affected every aspect of their lives, from financial stability and mental health to family planning and quality of life, compared to those aged 60 and older. This stark divide underscores the disproportionate impact on younger generations, who are facing unique challenges in navigating an increasingly unaffordable housing landscape.

The combination of financial stress, mental health challenges, and the potential for family disruption creates a cycle of anxiety that affects not just individuals but entire families and communities. Addressing the housing crisis is an important step toward improving overall quality of life and ensuring the stability of Canadian households.

Despite Challenges, the Dream of Homeownership Persists

Despite widespread challenges, the dream of owning a home remains strong. Among non-homeowners, 72% still aspire to buy a home, a sentiment that is strongest among younger Canadians – 88% of those aged 18-29 and 83% of those 30-44 hope to own a home someday.

However, this aspiration is tempered by reality. Nearly half (45%) of non-homeowners feel pessimistic about their chances of achieving homeownership or have given up entirely, while 27% losing hope. Young Canadians remain the most optimistic, with 41% of those aged 18-29 and 33% of those aged 30-44 still believing in the possibility of homeownership. However, a significant portion of younger Canadians (33% of those aged 18-34) admit they are optimistic but increasingly worried that this dream may remain out of reach.

This widening gap between aspirations and perceived possibilities underscores the challenges of Canada’s housing market. It reflects an urgent need for housing solutions to bridge this divide and restore hope and confidence in the ability of Canadians to achieve their homeownership goals.

In the past 12 months, 46% of prospective homeowners have begun exploring alternative housing solutions, a trend particularly evident among younger Canadians aged 18-29 (50%) and 30-44 (51%), as well as those living in urban areas (50%). Popular alternatives being considered include rent-to-own programs (42%), tiny or modular homes (37%), shared living arrangements (26%), and co-operative housing (24%).

The Upshot

As 2024 concludes, housing stands not only as a dominant issue but as a reflection of broader societal and economic challenges facing Canadians. The housing crisis has become a critical juncture where affordability, accessibility, and homelessness intersect with deeper concerns about equity and opportunity. Nearly 9 in 10 Canadians express concern about the housing landscape, revealing a shared unease that extends beyond individual circumstances to affect communities and the nation’s future.

The housing crisis is also amplifying inequities, disproportionately impacting younger Canadians, low-income households, and those in high-cost regions. This deepening divide reveals not just gaps in affordability but systemic imbalances that limit opportunity and upward mobility. Addressing housing challenges, therefore, is about more than bricks and mortar; it’s about tackling the social and economic inequities that threaten to erode confidence in the future.

Despite these challenges, the enduring dream of homeownership reflects the resilience and aspirations of Canadians. However, the gap between this dream and reality continues to widen, emphasizing the need for bold and coordinated action. Addressing the crisis will take more than increasing housing supply – it requires a commitment to tackling the systemic issues driving financial insecurity, affordability, and accessibility.

As Canada enters 2025, the way forward demands a recalibration of priorities and bold action. Solutions must extend beyond increasing supply to addressing the root causes of financial insecurity and ensuring housing policies promote inclusion and resilience. Governments, communities, and industry stakeholders must work together to create a housing landscape that not only meets immediate needs but also lays the foundation for long-term stability and opportunity for all Canadians. The road ahead is challenging, but with meaningful action, it is possible to restore confidence and hope in the Canadian housing market.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 6,000 Canadian adults from September 26 to October 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.27%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada).

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Canadian PoliticsHousingMediaPoliticsPolls

If voters don’t think you like or respect them, how can you expect them to vote for you?

In the wake of Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, David tweeted something that has stayed with both of us:

“If voters sense that you don’t like or respect them, it’s very unlikely they will vote for you. 👆 this is essentially politics today.”

That sentiment feels even more relevant now, as the dynamics of respect—or the perception of it—play a central role in shaping Canadian politics.

Recently, we dug into this question through new polling at Abacus Data, asking Canadians to what extent they feel respected by their political leaders. The results paint a striking picture of why progressive parties, including Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, may be struggling to connect with voters.

When we asked Canadians, “To what extent do you feel each of the following political leaders genuinely respects people like you?”, only 18% felt Trudeau respects them “a great deal” or “quite a bit.” In contrast, 30% said Pierre Poilievre respects them to the same degree, and 24% felt that way about Jagmeet Singh.

However, it’s the flipside of this question that underscores the real challenge: 47% of Canadians say they feel Trudeau does not respect them at all. That figure is significantly higher than for Poilievre (35%) and Singh (31%). These numbers reveal a respect deficit that appears to cut deep into public perceptions of the Prime Minister and may be contributing to the Liberals’ declining political fortunes.

Respect is a Two-Way Street
When we explored the factors behind these numbers, certain patterns emerged. Among Canadians with a university education, 24% feel Trudeau respects them “a great deal” or “quite a bit,” compared to just 14% among those with high school or less, and 15% among college graduates. This educational divide suggests that Trudeau is perceived as more attuned to a highly educated, urban audience—a narrative the Conservatives have been quick to weaponise in their efforts to frame the Liberals as out of touch with “everyday Canadians.”

Interestingly, there is little gender gap in perceptions of Trudeau’s respect. About 18% of men and 17% of women feel he respects them a great deal or quite a bit, while 47% of both genders feel he does not respect them at all. Generational differences are also muted, although younger Canadians are slightly more inclined to feel respected by Trudeau (43% of those aged 18 to 29 feel at least somewhat respected, compared to 34% of those aged 45 to 59).

For Poilievre, there is no significant education effect, but sectoral differences are revealing. Those working in trades, transportation, natural resources, agriculture, or manufacturing are far more likely to feel respected by Poilievre (36% feel he respects them a great deal or quite a bit, compared to just 21% who feel he doesn’t respect them at all). Conversely, Poilievre struggles with Canadians working in health care, education, and professional services—sectors where Trudeau is seen more favourably, albeit still scoring poorly overall.

Why Perceptions of “Respect” Alone May Not Win Votes
While respect clearly matters, it’s not the sole driver of political support. When we asked Canadians how likely they are to vote for a leader they feel genuinely respects them, 41% said they were very likely, and 32% said somewhat likely. But the rest—27%—said respect wasn’t a factor at all. Among those who do value respect, the Conservatives enjoy a 9-point higher vote share compared to those who are less swayed by this quality.

Digging deeper, we also asked Canadians to identify the most important factor when deciding which political leader to support. Only 9% chose “respect for people like me.” The top three responses were: “their trustworthiness and ability to relate to everyday Canadians,” “their approach to key political issues and policies,” and “their ability to understand and address the challenges I face.”

This finding suggests that respect functions as a foundation—it’s difficult to win votes without it, but it’s rarely sufficient on its own. For Trudeau and Poilievre alike, voters also weigh whether a leader’s policies align with their needs, whether they share similar values, and whether they project competence and empathy.

Respect, Empathy, and the “Politics of Reflection”
Respect may not rank as the most important factor for voters, but we believe it is closely tied to something that does: empathy. When voters feel genuinely respected, they are more likely to believe that a leader understands their challenges, sympathises with their struggles, and shares their priorities. This connection—meeting voters where they are and demonstrating relentless commitment to improving their lives—can be transformative in building trust and loyalty.

In that sense, respect is not merely about polite words or gestures—it’s about convincing voters that you see them, hear them, and care about their daily realities. Leaders like Poilievre, who resonate with Canadians in blue-collar sectors, may not always articulate policies that appeal to everyone, but they do succeed in projecting an image of someone who “gets it.” Conversely, Trudeau’s challenge lies in convincing voters outside his core base—particularly those struggling with affordability and economic insecurity—that he is equally committed to addressing their needs.

The respect deficit facing Trudeau is a problem for the Liberals, particularly as it intersects with other voter concerns. Among those who prioritise trustworthiness and the ability to relate to everyday Canadians, Conservative support is notably higher. These voters also tend to see Poilievre as more relatable and in touch with their struggles.

Poilievre’s challenge, however, lies in bridging the divide between his support among blue-collar workers and his weaker standing with voters in sectors like health care, education, and professional services. His message resonates with Canadians who feel overlooked by a system they perceive as favouring elites, but he risks alienating those who work in public-facing or knowledge-based professions. This may not ultimately matter to his ability to win an election, but remains a potential barrier nevertheless.

Meanwhile, Jagmeet Singh remains in a middle position. While he performs better than Trudeau on respect, his appeal is narrower and heavily tied to specific policy preferences. Among voters who prioritize a leader’s approach to key political issues, the NDP’s support is stronger, but they struggle to convert this into broader momentum

The Upshot

In the end, politics without respect is a fragile enterprise. Voters need to believe that leaders see them as real people, not just data points in a poll or faces in a crowd. Our research shows that when politicians fail this basic test, when they are perceived as looking down on—or even dismissing—segments of the population, they face a steep, often insurmountable uphill climb to regain trust. It’s not enough to talk about policies in abstract terms; leaders must connect those policies to the daily realities of the people they seek to represent.

Yet respect alone doesn’t close the deal. Canadians still want their leaders to be relatable and trustworthy, to offer tangible solutions to their challenges, and to understand the issues that cut closest to home. Policies, priorities, and empathy all matter immensely. In a world where multiple parties promise respect, what sets a leader apart is the ability to weave that respect into a compelling vision—one that’s believable because it’s anchored in everyday experiences and delivered through a voice that resonates.

For the Liberals, the challenge is clear: bridging the gap between a party narrative that may come off as elite-focused and a country that is looking for its struggles to be validated and addressed. For the Conservatives and the NDP, there is an opportunity to capitalize on the respect vacuum, but only if they can sustain and broaden their appeal. Ultimately, Canadian politics is heading into a cycle where the public’s demand for respect, empathy, and solutions will dominate. The leaders who heed that call will not only secure more votes—they’ll shape the political landscape for years to come.

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Looking for an engaging speaking to help explain what’s happening in politics, the consumer market, or workplaces? Consider booking David Coletto for your next event. Here’s a sample of a recent keynote presentation delivered by David on the subject of the “scarcity mindset”.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsMediaPoliticsPollsProvincial PoliticsPublic Policy

Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ontario PCs lead by 18 as Ford government approval rating rebounds

From November 28 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and often include questions on new topics. You can read the article on this poll here:

Doug Ford’s and Ontario PCs lead by 18 over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals

If an election were held today, 43% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC. The Ontario Liberals are at 25%, with the Ontario NDP trailing behind at 21%, and the Greens at 6%.  

All these changes are within the margin of error of our previous surveys. Since May, the Ontario PCs have consistently led by between 16 and 20 points.

Regionally, the Ontario PCs continue to lead across the province. They are ahead by 20 points in the GTHA, ahead by 16 in eastern Ontario, and by 24 in southwestern Ontario. In Toronto, the PCs are ahead of the Ontario Liberals by 15, a rebound from our poll a month ago.

The Ontario PCs continue to lead across demographic groups as well.

They are well ahead among men (25-point lead), lead by 11 among women, and lead across all age groups. Among those 60 and over, the PCs lead by 22-points.

Since early November, we have seen an improvement in the Ford government’s approval rating. Today 37% approve compared with 42% who disapprove. Over the past month, positive evaluations are up by 4-points, back to the high watermark since we started tracking this in August 2023.

In contrast, the federal government’s current approval rating nationally is 24% and 26% in Ontario.

Doug Ford’s personal numbers have improved slightly over the past month.

37% have a positive view of Premier Ford (+3), while negative views are down slightly (43%) for a net score of -6. Ford’s net favourability score is the lowest it’s been since we started tracking leader favourability in April.

NDP leader Marit Stiles has a slightly net positive impression at +3 , the only provincial lead with a net favourable score. Liberal Party leader Bonnie Crombie has a net score of -7 (marginal improvement).

Is Justin Trudeau dragging down the Liberals in Ontario?

As we saw in Nova Scotia during the recent provincial election, views of Justin Trudeau are strongly related to provincial voting intention.

Across the province, 22% of Ontarians have a positive impression of the Prime Minister compared with 62% who have a negative impression. When we look at the relationship between impressions of the Prime Minister and provincial vote intention, we find a strong linear relationship.

67% of those who a very positive impression of Justin Trudeau say they would vote Ontario Liberal. That drops to 57% among those with a less intense “positive” impression. From there, only 26% of those with a neutral impression of Trudeau would vote Ontario Liberal. Among those with a negative impression of Trudeau, 18% would vote Ontario Liberal while only 5% of those with a very negative impression of the Prime Minister would vote Liberal.

It’s also worth noting that there is a subset of the PC Party voter coalition who is fond of Justin Trudeau. 1 in 10 current PC voters say they have a positive impression of Prime Minister Trudeau. A total of 7% of Ontarians have a positive impression of both Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau. Among these Trudeau/Ford voters, 67% are voting Liberal federally (22% Conservative) while 51% are voting for Ford (35% for Crombie’s Ontario Liberals).

The opposite relationship, as expected, exists for provincial voting behaviour and how people feel about Premier Ford. More than 80% of the 37% of Ontarians with a positive impression of Doug Ford say they would vote PC. That drops to 41% among those with a neutral view of the Premier. Among those with a negative impression of Doug Ford, very few would vote PC.

This data reinforces two things. First, how much influence views towards the Prime Minister are currently having on provincial vote intentions. Second, how much of an asset Doug Ford remains to the PC Party’s electoral fortunes. The PC Party’s fortunes will rise and fall depending on whether people like Premier Ford or not.

The Upshot

As the year comes to an end, Doug Ford and the PCs remain in a strong position. If they do seek another mandate early in 2025, they would be the favourites as their opposition is divided and Ford’s personal numbers and his government’s approval rating are relatively strong.

A big wildcard is Marit Stiles and the NDP. She is not well known but has the most favourable net impression. If a campaign comes, she will be a blank slate to many voters and could change the dynamics in the province.

For the Liberals and Bonnie Crombie, the biggest hurdle to growth remains the unpopularity of Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberals. As long as Justin Trudeau is far less popular than Doug Ford, it will be hard for them to make the case for change.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from November 28 to December 4, 2024.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: No “GST Tax Holiday” or “Trump” Bump as Conservatives hold 23-point lead over the Liberals.

From November 29 to December 4, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,720 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition, we ask our usual trackers along with an update of our top issue tracker.

Vote Intention: Still No Trump Bump or a “GST Holiday” Bump. Conservatives ahead by 23.

If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 21% would vote for the Liberals, and 21% for the NDP. The BQ has 32% of the vote in Quebec. All of the movement from the last survey is within the margin of error.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 12 in BC, 42 in Alberta, 21 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 24 in Ontario, and by 19 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Conservatives by 5 with the Liberals trailing 4 points behind them in third.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Outside of Quebec, the NDP continues to be slightly ahead of the Liberals (23% to 21%) with 49% voting Conservative.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women although their margin among younger continues to be smaller than older cohorts.

48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 41% of women.

We have also seen a decline in the overall mood of the country. Today, only 22% of Canadians feel the country is headed in the right direction, a 5-point drop from early November and the lowest we have measured since the beginning of 2023. Also of note, today, more Canadians think the United States is headed in the right direction (23%) than feel the same about their own country (22%) – the first time we have ever seen those two measures cross.

The federal government’s approval rating has not changed much.

Today, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 1) while disapproval is steady at 61%.

The desire for change remains broad and deep. 53% of Canadians want a change in government and believe there’s a good alternative compared with 14% who think Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.

Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 61% (unchanged) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -38.

And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been but the positive trend in his favourables has stopped. Today 31% have a positive impression of the NDP leader compared with 39% with a negative view for a net score of -8.

Views of Pierre Poilievre remain mixed. 41% have a positive view (up 1) while 36% have a negative view (down 1) for a net score of +5. Trump’s election has had no impact on views towards Pierre Poilievre.

We are also tracking Canadian impressions of Donald Trump. And since the tariff announcement last week, positive impressions of Trump have increased. Those with a negative impression are down 7 from two weeks ago while those with a positive view are up 6 to 26%, the highest we have measured since we started tracking in September.

One of the questions we are often asked is whether there is risk for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives in appearing too close to Donald Trump. The chart below shows just how much risk there is. Despite being slightly more popular than Justin Trudeau, Donald Trump is still deeply unpopular in Canada. And among those with a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre (41% of Canadians), about half have a positive impression of Trump while 1 in 3 have a negative impression. A big part of the new Poilievre universe does not like the incoming American President.

Top Issues

For the first time in our issue tracking, we included Donald Trump and his administration as a potential issue for Canadians to rate as one of their top 3. When we include him in the mix, 1 in 5 Canadians rate him and his administration as a top issue.

The cost of living, healthcare, and housing are still the top three most cited issues followed by the economy in fourth and immigration in fifth. 1 in 3 Canadians now rate immigration as one of their top issues, a 5-point increase from June.

Onlu 18% of Canadians rate climate change and the environment as a top issue, down 5 points since June.

Looking at the issue set by age, we find that the cost of living cross all agre groups while healthcare is more likely to be salient for those aged 60 and over and housing is more of an issue for those under 30. Canadians under 30 are most likely to rate immigration as a top issue while those over 60 are more concerned about Trump and his new administration. Also worth noting that Canadians over 60 are more likely to rate climate change as a top issue than any other age cohort.

Here’s the breakdown by region/province:

And here’s the breakdown by current federal party support. Note, the wide partisan divides on healthcare, immigration, climate, crime, and Donald Trump.

Now, when we follow up with those who select an issue in their top three and ask which party they think is best able to handle that issue, the results underscore how challenging an environment this is for any party except for the Conservatives.

On the six most salient issues at the moment, the Conservatives either lead or are competitive with another party. They lead by 24 on affordability, by 2 on healthcare, by 12 on housing, and by 36 on the economy. They are 49 points ahead on immigration, and are within 5 points of the Liberals among those who say Trump and his administration is one of the top issues facing the country. They also lead by 49 on crime and public safety.

If voters usually vote for the party they think is best able to handle the issue they care most about, then the Conservatives are in as solid a position to win the next election as you can imagine.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Since early November, we’ve experienced several big political events. Trump’s election victory, the federal government’s GST tax holiday announcement, and Trump’s 25% tariff social media post. And it appears none of those events have materially changed public opinion.

The Liberals continue to trail the Conservatives by over 20 points. We’ve seen no change in how people feel about the Prime Minister or the performance of the government. The mood of the country has soured a bit – to the lowest level we have ever measured – and now more Canadians believe the United States is headed in the right direction (23%) than do think that about Canada (22%).

So far, the impact of Trump on Canadian political opinion has been limited. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t present both opportunities and threats for all leaders and parties. As we showed in this poll, Pierre Poilievre likely has the most risk around Trump as his coalition has very different views of the incoming U.S. President.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,720 Canadian adults from November 29 to December 4, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

A Double Demographic Whammy – inFocus with David Coletto – Substack

The Canadian healthcare system is heading toward a perfect storm—a “double demographic whammy” that will strain health and long-term care and dominate the political agenda for the next 5 to 10 years unless the problem is addressed.

This collision is driven by two inexorable forces: a rapidly aging population and a shrinking supply of family physicians and other healthcare professionals. Together, these trends will amplify healthcare scarcity, transforming it into the defining political issue for Canadians aged 45 and older, much as housing affordability has become central for younger Canadians.

Uncategorized

Advertising and Message Testing for Advocacy Campaigns: Ensuring Your Message Hits the Mark

In an increasingly complex and crowded information landscape, advocacy organizations, public affairs teams, and campaign strategists need to ensure their advertising and messaging truly resonate with the audiences they aim to influence. Getting it wrong means wasted resources, missed opportunities, and weakened impact. Getting it right can change minds, move hearts, and catalyze meaningful action. At Abacus Data, we offer advertising and message testing that serves as a crucial, independent audit—one that helps you determine if your creative will break through, engage your intended audience, and deliver the outcomes you need.

What We Do: Independent and Objective Message Testing

Our mission is to provide independent, data-driven testing of your ad concepts, messages, and creative strategies before you invest heavily in production or media placement. Unlike in-house research teams that can be unintentionally influenced by internal agendas or creative preferences, we serve as a neutral, third-party assessor. Think of our message testing as an impartial “audit” of your campaign’s creative approach.

We’re not here to pat you on the back. We’re here to help you understand if your idea works—or if it doesn’t—before it goes live.

This means we assess the strength of your messages, identify potential pitfalls, and uncover what truly resonates with your target audience. Whether you are testing television spots, digital ads, social media content, or print campaigns, our methodology ensures that you receive objective feedback grounded in robust public opinion research.

How We Do It: Rigorous Research That Reflects Your Real-World Challenges

At Abacus Data, our process starts by working closely with you to identify key objectives, target audiences, and the specific communication outcomes you hope to achieve. We know every advocacy campaign is unique, and we tailor our approach accordingly.

Discovery and Questionnaire Design:
We begin by understanding your campaign’s goals, the strategic environment you operate within, and the audiences you must engage. Are you looking to motivate grassroots supporters, influence policymakers, or sway undecided voters? With clarity on these points, we design a comprehensive research plan that tests your messages or ads under realistic conditions.

Fielding the Survey and Collecting Data:
We then field the survey to a representative sample of your intended audience. Using advanced sampling techniques and careful weighting, we ensure the data we gather reflects the demographic and attitudinal profiles you need to reach. Each participant sees the ad or reads the message in an environment that simulates how they might actually encounter it, giving you feedback that mirrors real-world reactions.

Analysis and Reporting:
Once data collection is complete, our team dives into the results. We break down which messages stand out, which points fall flat, and what aspects of your advertising leave participants confused or disengaged. Our analysis doesn’t simply tally up “likes” or “favorable impressions.” Instead, we dig deeper to understand why a message resonates, which audience segments respond most positively, and how to refine your approach for maximum impact. The final deliverable isn’t a list of raw data—it’s a tailored report highlighting key insights, strategic implications, and actionable recommendations.

Why We Are the Best: Expertise, Independence, and Proven Results

Abacus Data is Canada’s most sought-after public affairs research team for a reason. We we release a poll “Ottawa listens”.

At Abacus Data, we’ve built our reputation on delivering candid, evidence-based advice that helps our clients succeed. This starts with our team of seasoned researchers, each bringing extensive experience in public opinion research, political science, policy analysis, and communications. Led by Dr. David Coletto, our team is made up of senior researchers who have advanced degrees in political management, public affairs, and quantitative methods. Their diverse backgrounds ensure that you’re receiving the benefit of interdisciplinary thinking rooted in both rigorous academic training and real-world application.

But credentials are only half the story. Our independence sets us apart. We are not a creative agency, nor are we influenced by internal pressures to “make the ad look good.” We have no vested interest in validating your existing ideas—our sole focus is providing the most accurate, unbiased assessment possible. This independence ensures that when we say a message works, it’s because the data supports that conclusion—not because we want to protect anyone’s ego.

What to Do With the Research: Turning Insights into Effective Advocacy

Raw data only matters if it helps you make better decisions. With our advertising and message testing insights in hand, you’ll know exactly what next steps to take:

Refine Your Creative Concepts:
Identify which elements of your ad or message resonate most strongly and which should be revised or removed. Armed with evidence, you can work confidently with your creative team to make adjustments that truly strengthen your advocacy.

Optimize Your Media Strategy:
Our data can guide you on where, when, and how to deliver your messages. If younger audiences respond best to certain framing or a specific call-to-action, you can tailor the ad buy and creative approach to maximize that potential.

Support Internal Decision-Making:
Present clear, data-driven results to your internal stakeholders and leadership teams, demonstrating which messages are backed by concrete evidence. This can help unite your team behind a shared creative vision and alleviate internal debates about subjective preferences.

Elevate Your Campaign’s Credibility and Impact:
Confidently approach government decision-makers, partners, and supporters with messages proven to resonate. By showing them data that confirms your approach, you can bolster credibility, attract allies, and strengthen your advocacy position.

Ready to Get Started?

Don’t leave the effectiveness of your advocacy campaign’s advertising and messaging to chance.

Contact Yvonne Langen to set up a 15-minute initial consultation, and we’ll connect you with one of our senior researchers.

We’ll connect you with one of our senior researchers, who will listen to your needs, outline a custom testing plan, and begin turning your ideas into validated, data-driven messaging strategies.

In a cluttered communications landscape, having unbiased insights into what works and why is invaluable. With Abacus Data’s advertising and message testing services, you gain the confidence, clarity, and strategic direction needed to ensure your messages don’t just reach your audience—they connect, engage, and persuade them to take action.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian Politics

What do Canadians Think About the Emissions Cap on the Oil & Gas Sector

From November 15 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults (18+) to explore public opinions on the federal government’s proposed emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, set to take effect by 2030. Results highlight a divided public on the federal emissions cap, with support generally split between those prioritizing climate action and those concerned about the economic impact, particularly in oil-dependent regions. The findings also highlight opinion challenges in balancing environmental goals with economic considerations, especially when it comes to balancing regional interests in the country. As the federal government moves forward with ambitious climate policies, these insights underscore the complex task ahead in building social license for the policy choices.

Awareness of the Emissions Cap

Overall, 50% of Canadians were aware of the emissions cap on the oil and gas sector announcement by the federal government. The level of awareness varies significantly by political affiliation and region. Awareness was highest among Conservative supporters (58%), and those in Alberta (59%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%). This lack of awareness highlights a broader, ongoing communication challenge faced by all governments trying to connect with audiences who are increasingly fragmented and harder to reach than ever.

Opinion on the Emissions Cap Announcement

Among those who are aware of the announcement, opinions are split – 32% of Canadians support the cap as a necessary action for climate change, while 32% oppose it, citing concerns about its negative economic impact. Further, 33% have mixed feelings, depending on how the policy is implemented. The support for the emissions cap is highest in Quebec (44%) and among Liberal (53%) and NDP (46%) supporters. In contrast, opposition is most pronounced in Alberta (45%) and among Conservative supporters (53%). These divisions reveal the challenging landscape the government must navigate to win broader acceptance of its climate policies at a point in time when most Canadians are focused on the economic pressures of their day-to-day lives.

Divided Opinions on the Impact of the Emissions Cap

Nearly half of Canadians who are aware of the announcement (47%) believe the emissions cap risks deepening divisions in the country by creating a stark contrast between environmental concerns and economic interests. This is especially true in Alberta, where 62% feel the cap will further divide the country, compared to only 40% of Quebecers and 39% of Atlantic Canadians who see it as a positive step for climate change. Politically, there is a fairly deep partisan split. Conservative supporters (68%) are most likely to view the policy as a source of division, while Liberal (54%) and NDP (44%) supporters see it as necessary for climate action. These findings highlight the difficulty of achieving national unity on climate policy, particularly in regions, like Alberta, with significant economic stakes in the oil and gas sector.

Political Divide on the Effectiveness of the Emissions Cap for Climate Goals

When it comes to the potential impact of the emissions cap on Canada’s long-term climate goals, many Canadians express skepticism due to the opposition it faces – 41% believe it will have some effect, but that opposition from key provinces will limit its overall effectiveness, while 21% feel the cap will have little to no impact because of this resistance. In fact, only 26% of those aware of the announcement believe it will still make a significant impact despite the pushback. Politically, Liberal supporters are most likely to see the cap as a significant move for climate action (43%), while NDP supporters (53%) are more cautious, believing the impact will be minimal due to the opposition. Conservative supporters, however, are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with the majority believing the cap will have little to no effect.

Looking for Balance

35% of Canadians who are aware of the emissions cap believe that the federal government can balance the urgent need for climate action with the concerns of oil and gas producing regions, without alienating significant portions of the population by providing more support for the transition to clean energy. Another 1 in 4 feel the government should focus more on national unity and less on divisive climate targets, while 26% support easing the burden on the oil and gas sector through incentives or subsidies.

These preferences reflect a political divide, with Conservative supporters (43%) emphasizing national unity, while Liberal (55%) and NDP (48%) supporters are more focused on transitioning to clean energy. This highlights the key challenge facing the government: how to reconcile the urgency of climate action with the economic realities of both Canadians in general and of oil-dependent regions.

Approaches to Balancing Climate Action and Regional Concerns

Economic concerns are the largest barrier to building support for climate action in Canada, with 54% of Canadians citing the potential impact on jobs and livelihoods. Conservative supporters are particularly concerned about the immediate economic impacts, with 62% identifying them as the primary obstacle. Beyond economic factors, 24% of Canadians point to political divides as a major challenge, and 22% highlight a lack of understanding about climate change, a concern especially strong among younger Canadians (18-29: 29%). These findings underscore the fact that to build broader support for climate policies, the current government will need to address both economic and informational gaps while also working to bridge political divides.

Strategies for Engaging Provinces in Climate Policy Implementation

Overall, 38% of Canadians believe the federal government can better engage with provinces by collaborating more closely on regional solutions and setting flexible targets. This view is particularly strong among Albertans, 43% of whom support this approach. Additionally, 21% of Canadians feel that targeted investments in energy diversification could help, especially among Liberal supporters (31%). Meanwhile, 20% support gradual changes that reduce the burden on the oil and gas sectors, a perspective held by 26% of Conservative supporters. This paints a clear divide in public opinion on how to balance climate action with regional concerns, emphasizing that for climate policies to be successful, they must be dynamic and adaptable. Solutions need to consider the diverse economic and political realities of each province, incorporating various perspectives to ensure broad support and effectiveness.

The Upshot

The federal government’s proposed emissions cap for the oil and gas sector for 2030 is a highly divisive issue in Canada, with political and regional divides shaping public opinion.

First, it is striking that, despite how much friction the emissions cap has created and the attention it’s received, only half of Canadians are aware of it.

While some see it as crucial for addressing climate change, others worry about its short-term economic impact, particularly in regions which are more reliant on fossil fuel industries. The challenge for the government is advancing climate policy while addressing these economic concerns.

For supporters of the cap, the focus should remain on pushing forward climate policies while providing support for regions impacted by the transition. By balancing climate goals with a clear plan to protect economic stability, supporters can strengthen their position and likely expand support by focusing on the need to address climate change while also alleviating economic pressures.

For opponents, the emphasis should be on addressing immediate economic concerns, particularly job security and the cost of living. There is an audience for advocate for gradual climate action that supports economic stability, ensuring that the transition to cleaner energy does not harm livelihoods. By addressing the economic realities of fossil fuel industries, opponents of this policy choice can balance the need for climate action with the economic priorities of their constituents, positioning themselves as protectors of jobs and economic stability.

Climate change remains one of the most divisive policy issues in the country. It divides Canadians across regional and political lines. As climate policy continues to impact the political landscape, leaders must navigate these divides, ensuring climate goals are met while protecting economic stability and jobs, especially in energy-dependent regions. Canadians are deeply aware of the long-term risks of climate change, but they are equally conscious of the essential role the energy sector plays in driving the economy, supporting employment, and impacting the cost of living. To be effective, any approach to climate policy must balance these competing concerns – ensuring that climate goals are met while safeguarding economic stability and livelihoods. Solutions must be dynamic, balancing the need for climate action with economic and social realities.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 15 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3 %, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Environment & Climate ChangeInsightsMediaPolls

Advancing Canada's digital future | The Walrus

“Canada’s financial institutions ​​have been resilient and withstood external pressures that in other markets, like the United States and the UK, buckled under the pressure,” notes David Coletto, founder, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data. “Our banks and our financial system were able to hold it together. We can do things in Canada that they can’t do in other markets. We have the infrastructure in place.”

Uncategorized

Trudeau lingered in the minds of voters – The Signal

Polling from Abacus Data collected before the election shows that there was a clear connection between Nova Scotians who had a negative view of … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://signalhfx.ca/trudeau-lingered-in-the-minds-of-voters/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3C4fPwGEHSpKDetalaVtiJ

Uncategorized

Canadians believe businesses giving back is an important part of building stronger communities

Earlier this year we conducted a survey on behalf of Imagine Canada, exploring Canadians’ attitudes towards communities, businesses, and corporate social responsibility. Some key highlights from this research are below. To read the analysis, click here.

The following data is from an online survey with 1,500 adults in Canada, from September 6 to 11, 2024. The survey was conducted on behalf of Imagine Canada with the support of BMO.

As Canadians remain pessimistic about Canada’s future, they are left feeling as though the sense of community in Canada isn’t as strong as it could be. 52% rate the strength of their own community as excellent/good, 42% feel the same about the sense of community more broadly in Canada. 

There is no one region of Canada that feels a stronger or weaker sense of community. Instead, a sense of community is strongest among older Canadians, then the youngest cohort (18 to 29), and only moderate among middle-aged Canadians.

Most Canadians weave their own definition of community with a diverse list of relationships, organizations and entities. Two-thirds plus say large businesses that operate in their community, charities/non-profits, small businesses, their neighbors, family and friends all collectively play a role in how they define community.

Younger Canadians are less likely to say businesses (large and small) are part of their definition of community. But altogether 44% of Canadians say businesses (big, small or both) are very important to their own community.

Not only do Canadians list a multitude of stakeholders in their definition of community, they are inclined to say all have a net positive impact to some extent on their community, including businesses large and small.

69% of Canadians say small businesses make their communities better. 4% say they make their communities worse.

41% of Canadians say small businesses make their communities better. 15% say they make their communities worse.

Canadians have even more favourable views towards businesses when they see them supporting and building resilient communities. 

Over 80% of Canadians say they prefer to support businesses that give back to their communities, and a similar number like to see partnerships between businesses and nonprofits or charities.

UPSHOT

Canadians feel their communities can and should be stronger and more resilient. And to build back our communities Canadians want to see everyone involved, including businesses. Canadians value business involvement in communities, and are looking for a framework that ensures businesses have their best interests in mind when giving back.

To learn more about how Canadians want to see businesses give back, click here to visit the full release from Imagine Canada.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from September 6 to 11, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set partner panel based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogConsumer Behaviour