The poll found 43 per cent of eligible voters say they would vote NDP, followed by the UCP at 35 per cent. Abacus‘ previous poll in April had the two … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://globalnews.ca/news/9696826/alberta-election-abacus-data-may-13/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3aOXmr8IyR2dfj-6ezv9Pf
“Among all eligible voters, the NDP has gained 7 points from our last survey before the election started,” said Abacus Chairman and CEO David Coletto … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://albertapolitics.ca/2023/05/new-poll-by-abacus-data-shows-alberta-ndp-breaking-ahead-of-ucp-into-winning-territory/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw1LENWQPLHoOXML9oo30IWY
With just over two weeks to go in the Alberta provincial election, a new survey of 885 eligible voters in Alberta by Abacus Data finds the Alberta NDP jumping ahead of the UCP after several months of near or complete deadlock in vote intentions between the two parties.
In this report, I’ll share results from this survey with a focus on vote intention, leader impressions, and perceptions about the election itself.
The NDP leads the UCP
Among all eligible voters, the NDP has gained 7 points from our last survey before the election started. 43% of eligible voters say they would vote NDP followed by the UCP at 35%, the Alberta Party at 4% and other parties get 3%. 14% say they are still undecided – down eight points since April.
This is the first time in our tracking that the NDP support is above 40% and is the largest lead we’ve measured for either party in the five waves of research we completed.
Among eligible voters likely to vote, the NDP lead is slightly smaller (5 points) with the NDP at 46%, the UCP at 41%, and undecided at 9%.
When we remove the undecided, the ballot among all decided voters is 51% for the NDP and 41% for the UCP – a 5-point gain for the NDP and a 5-point loss for the UCP since the start of the campaign.
Among decided likely voters, the ballot is closer with the NDP ahead by 6, 51% to 45%.
NDP gains among Reluctant UCPers.
In previous reports, we have profiled a group within the electorate who say they voted UCP in 2019 but today are either undecided or voting for another party. I call them “Reluctant UCPers”.
They still represent about 16% to 18% of the electorate but we have seen a noticeable shift in their vote intentions. Back in April, 51% of this group was undecided while 34% said they were going to vote NDP. Today, undecideds are down 17 points while half now say they are voting NDP. This helps explain the big rise in NDP support as those who are undecided have dropped.
The NDP is ahead in Calgary
Regionally, the NDP is ahead by over 30 in Edmonton, the UCP leads by 8 outside of the two largest cities, while the NDP is slightly ahead in Calgary (42% to 36%). Note, we ask respondents to self-report where they live so it’s likely these results represent Calgary and Edmonton proper and not the CMAs. It also means suburban and nearby communities around Calgary and Edmonton are included in the “other areas” region.
When undecideds are removed, the results in those regions are:
Calgary: NDP 49%, UCP 41%, AP 5%
Edmonton: NDP 66%, UCP 27%, AP 5%
Other communities: UCP 51%, NDP 41%, AP 4%
These estimates change slightly when we isolate only those likely to vote:
Calgary: NDP 50%, UCP 46%
Edmonton: NDP 65%, UCP 28%
Other communities: UCP 57%, NDP 39%
NDP is well ahead among under 45 and women.
The NDP has made gains across demographic groups but now has a 16-point lead among those under 45, is tied with the UCP among those over 45, leads by 12 among women, and is slightly ahead among men.
The NDP is competitive with the UCP among those with high school or less and college while ahead by almost 30 points among those with a university degree.
NDP has a big, 43-point lead among those who self-identify as a member of a racialized community. 65% would vote NDP, 22% UCP, and 10% are undecided. Among those who don’t self-identify as a member of a racialized group, the UCP leads by 3 (39% to 36%) with 16% undecided.
Past UCP voters remain the most undecided at this point.
We continue to track how past UCP voters say they are going to vote. Today, 65% of those who say they voted UCP in 2019 will vote for the party again. This is up by 5 since April. 18% say they are voting NDP, up 5 as well. Note, about 1 in5 of those who voted UCP in 2019 say they are voting NDP this time while 12% remain undecided.
Among past NDP supporters, 87% will vote NDP again, 5% are backing the UCP, and 6% are undecided.
Among those who didn’t vote in 2019 – 42% say they will vote NDP, 16% UCP and 29% are undecided.
When we look at the relationship between past federal vote and current provincial vote intentions, we find that past federal Liberal and NDP voters overwhelmingly support the Alberta NDP. Among past federal Conservative supporters, 61% are voting UCP, 19% NDP, and 16% are undecided.
One thing to note, both loyal UCPers and loyal NDPers are highly engaged and likely to vote. Reluctant UCPers and those who voted for smaller parties in 2019 are somewhat less likely to vote.
How do they feel about the leaders?
Those with a negative impression of UCP leader Danielle Smith have increased over the past few weeks. Today 31% have a positive impression of her while 49% have a negative impression for a net score of -18. Negative impressions of Smith are up 6 points since the start of the campaign.
For NDP leader Rachel Notley, 39% have a positive impression while 40% have a negative impression for a net score of -1. Views of Rachel Notley are largely unchanged.
Also worth noting, negative impressions of Danielle Smith are also more intense. 36% of eligible voters have a very negative impression of Smith compared with 31% who feel the same way about Rachel Notley. It’s clear both leaders are quite polarizing.
When we look at how party supporters feel about both leaders, that polarization becomes even more apparent. 80% of UCP supporters like Smith while only 2% like Notley. In contrast, 82% of NDP supporters like Notley but only 3% like Smith. The relationship between one’s vote choice and impression of the party leader is almost perfectly correlated demonstrating just how important leader image is to the vote in Alberta right now.
The survey also finds that more Albertans say their impression of Danielle Smith has gotten worse than those who say that of Rachel Notley. 40% say their impression of Danielle Smith has gotten worse while 25% say the same thing about Rachel Notley. At this point in the campaign, neither leader has much positive momentum, but it’s clear Smith has more negative momentum than Notley.
A few other insights
Despite the NDP leading, more think Danielle Smith will be premier after the election than Rachel Notley, although over 1 in 3 eligible voters think it’s really too close to say.
And the perception of a close race has increased since before the campaign. Today, 63% think the election is going to be close while 15% think the UCP will win easily and 8% think the NDP will win easily. When voters think it’s going to be close – turnout is likely to be higher.
THE UPSHOT
As things stand right now, the Alberta NDP has won the first few weeks of the campaign – or, the UCP and Danielle Smith have lost it. A sizeable portion of previously undecided voters are now backing the NDP which has taken a clear lead province-wide. Edmonton is solidly orange while Calgary seems to be more favourable to the NDP than it was in our last survey.
Campaign events has pushed a large portion of Reluctant UCPers towards the NDP, despite their natural inclination to vote for Conservative parties. What’s driving this behaviour? At this point, it’s all about Danielle Smith.
Among Reluctant UCPers, 69% have a negative impression of Danielle Smith. Only 9% have a positive view. Remember, these are people who voted for Jason Kenney and the UCP in 2019. 82% of them voted for Erin O’Toole and the federal Conservatives in 2021. They would normally vote for a Conservative party. Today, they say they would vote NDP.
And while they don’t love Rachel Notley – the group has more positive than negative views of her (38% positive vs. 31% negative). Most can accept her as premier if it means Danielle Smith is denied re-election.
Since the first time I identified these Reluctant UCPers, I’ve said they will decide the election. And if an election was held today, their shift towards the NDP puts Notley in a good position to win the province again.
Albertans believe this election is close. More still think Smith is going to win, but there is a lot of uncertainty. The electorate is pretty divided in their views of the leaders which means we could see a fairly high turnout.
Now, there are still two weeks to go and a lot of time for these views to change. But my initial perspective that this election was the UCP’s to lose seems to be coming true. They are losing it. Unless they can make Smith more appealing or generate more fear about an NDP win, Danielle Smith may be feeling a bit of Deja Vu about another defeat snatched from the jaws of victory.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 885 Alberta adults eligible to vote from May 9 to 12, 2023.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Alberta’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT DAVID COLETTO
David Coletto is Chair, CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Late on April 30, Canada’s largest public-sector union and the federal government reached a tentative agreement ending one of the largest strikes in Canada’s history. For the previous 11 days, 120,000 public servants were on strike.
A few days later, the government also reached a tentative agreement with PSAC members working for the Canada Revenue Agency.
We were in the field with a national survey over the weekend an agreement was reached, interviewing 1,750 Canadian adults from April 28 to May 2. In that survey, we asked several questions about the strike. Specifically, I was interested in understanding:
The results indicate that Canadians were aware of the strike, but not paying particularly close attention. Few were directly impacted by the strike and Canadians were fairly split on whether it was justified or not.
But more important, perhaps for the future of the labour movement and future negotiations between governments and public sector workers, underlying opinions seem to favour organized labour – especially in an environment where the desire for more flexibility at work is widespread and a cost of living crisis is impacting how people think about wages.
Here’s what we found:
Only 1 in 3 Canadians were following news about the PSAC strike closely.
Older Canadians were following it more closely than younger Canadians. Union members generally were as likely to follow the strike as other Canadians. There was no political difference in attention to the story.
Only 4% of Canadians say the strike disrupted their lives “a lot”
The vast majority of Canadians report that the PSAC strike had either no impact or only a little impact on their lives. 10% said the strike disrupted their life somewhat while 4% say it impacted them a lot.
Younger Canadians were more likely to report the strike disrupting their lives. Union members were also somewhat more likely to say the strike disrupted their lives.
More feel the workers’ demands were justified
Among those aware of the PSAC strike, 45% believe the strike was completely or mostly justified while 37% feel it was unjustified. 18% were unsure.
Those living in Quebec and Atlantic Canada were more likely to feel the strike was justified than those in other regions of the country. Younger Canadians were far more likely to feel the strike was justified than older ones. 63% of those 18 to 29 and 52% of those 30 to 44 feel the strike is justified while less than half of older Canadians share that view.
Politically, Liberal, NDP and BQ supporters tend to think the strike was justified while Conservative, Green, and PPC supporters are more divided.
It is noteworthy that a majority of the Liberal government’s own supporters think the strike was justified.
Beyond the PSAC Strike
But beyond the strike itself, the survey also asked Canadians their views on related topics.
For example, 60% of Canadians believe that gains made by large unions do benefit workers generally over time and this view is widely accepted by younger Canadians.
89% of Canadians agree that “wages should rise as the cost-of-living rises” including 91% of Liberal supporters, 86% of Conservative supporters, and 93% of NDP supporters.
There’s also a wide gender gap on this question. While 45% strongly agree that wages should rise as the cost of living rises, 59% of women feel this way.
Finally, 71% of working Canadians would like to work from home two days a week. 29% say they don’t want that ability.
Once again, younger Canadians are far more likely to want that flexibility than older working Canadians. Liberal, NDP, and GPC supporters are more likely to want to be able to work from home than Conservatives – although a majority of Conservative supporters would like that choice too.
Would a unionized workplace mean better wages and working conditions? Non-unionized workers are split.
When non-unionized working Canadians are asked whether being unionized would lead to better wages and working conditions, 34% say yes, 32% say no and 34% are unsure.
Women are far more likely than men to see the benefit of unions (40% to 29%) while there isn’t much difference across age groups.
Interestingly, the same number of Liberal, Conservative, and NDP supporters who work in non-unionized workplaces think their wages and working conditions would be better if they were unionized – demonstrating there’s no real partisan divide.
What this all means?
First off, it’s clear that at the end of the strike, more Canadians sided with the workers on strike than with the government in that more felt the strike was justified. That makes sense since almost everyone agrees that wages should rise with the cost of living and most would like the flexibility to work from home a few days a week.
But what’s striking in these results is the generational divide we see throughout. Millennials and Zoomers (Gen Z) are far more likely to feel the strike was justified, that wages should rise with the cost of living, and that gains made by unions eventually improve working conditions for all workers.
This is evidence that the environment is ripe for increased unionism. As younger generations feel the impact of precarious work, weak wage growth, and a housing crisis, I’d expect more and more support for unionization and for worker action.
Finally, there are some lessons in this data for other unions as they negotiate better contracts for their workers.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,750 Canadian adults from April 28 to May 3, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
We conducted a national survey at the beginning of the month to explore public perceptions of a Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre. We asked respondents whether they thought such a government would or wouldn’t undertake a list of actions and whether a Conservative government should or shouldn’t do the same things.
The intention was to set a benchmark for public perceptions and to better understand the potential barriers the Conservatives face in growing support.
Here’s what we found:
First, many Canadians are uncertain about whether a Conservative government would or wouldn’t take all the actions we tested. Between 22% and 33% of respondents said they don’t know if a Conservative government would or wouldn’t do the actions we presented.
Second, few Canadians are certain about whether a Conservative government would or wouldn’t take the actions, but there are some areas where opinions are more defined. For example, more Canadians are certain that a Conservative government would eliminate the national carbon tax (17%), cut all public funding to the English-language CBC (15%), and make it harder for women to have an abortion (14%).
Conversely, 25% believe a Conservative government definitely won’t welcome as many immigrants to Canada as the Liberals, 20% believe they won’t deal with climate change seriously, 21% believe they won’t balance the federal budget within four years, and 15% believe they won’t cut personal taxes. Additionally, 12% of Canadians believe that a Conservative government definitely won’t make it harder for women to have an abortion.
However, many Canadians have an inclination about what a Conservative government will do.
When we combine “definitely will” and “probably will” and remove those who are unsure, here’s what Canadians expect a Conservative government to do, from most to least likely:
Following this question, we asked whether Canadians think a Conservative government should undertake the same set of actions. Here’s what we found, from highest to lowest:
The results indicate that some policy choices are more popular than others. Action on housing affordability is nearly universal, while serious climate action, balancing the budget, and cutting personal income taxes find widespread appeal. Canadians are more divided on the carbon tax and immigration, with a minority supporting the reduction of funding to the CBC and ending the national childcare and dental programs. Only one in four think that the Conservatives should make it harder for women to have an abortion.
Opportunities and Threats for the Conservatives
By examining the responses to both questions, we can identify policy actions that would likely attract or repel voters. We call the difference between the “will do” and “should do” responses the perception gap.
Policy areas where more Canadians want the Conservatives to take action and fewer think they will include:
These are actions that generate significant interest, but fewer people are convinced the Conservatives will pursue them.
Areas where more people think the Conservatives will take action than think they should include:
These are potential vulnerabilities for the Conservatives, particularly concerning abortion and ending the national childcare program.
When we look specifically at accessible Conservative voters – those open to voting Conservative but currently undecided or leaning towards another party – the story is somewhat similar.
Accessible Conservatives overwhelmingly want the Conservatives to balance the budget, cut taxes, and make housing affordable. These are clear opportunities for the Conservatives for which so far the Conservative Party has not established its credentials. Instead of focusing on defunding the CBC, a focus on these areas is likely to do a better job at growing those open to voting Conservative.
These are all potential vulnerabilities for the Conservatives – especially when it comes to abortion, climate change, and ending the national childcare program.
For example, 81% of accessible Conservatives want the Conservatives to address climate change seriously, but only 58% think they will.
While 53% of accessible Conservatives believe a Conservative government will end dental care, only 29% want them to; similarly, 44% think they will end childcare, but only 30% want them to. In the case of the CBC, 54% think a Conservative will defund the CBC, but only 41% want it to be.
What Unites and Divides Conservative Supporters?
Using the “what should a Conservative government do?” question, we can also identify what unites and divides the Conservative voter coalition.
Here are actions that a clear majority of current Conservative supporters want a Conservative government to undertake if elected:
Conservative supporters are almost evenly split on funding the CBC, with 58% wanting a Conservative government to eliminate all public funding for the English-language CBC and 42% opposed.
Here are areas where less than half of Conservative supporters want a Conservative government to take action:
UPSHOT
As we approach an election, we will continue to monitor perceptions regarding the actions a Conservative government might take. The questions and answers discussed reveal both the opportunities and challenges the Conservatives face.
The Conservatives have ample opportunities to discuss tax cuts, fiscal restraint, and housing affordability. There is significant demand for action in these areas, and many believe the Conservatives will address them. Moreover, there is potential to convert accessible Conservatives into Conservative voters.
For the Liberals and NDP, abortion, childcare, dental care, and climate change are policy areas where public perceptions favor them. Among potential Conservative voters, there are notable gaps between what people want and what they think the Conservatives will do if elected.
This study also emphasizes the popularity of some Liberal initiatives over the years, particularly the national childcare and national dental care programs. Even among Conservative supporters, there is limited support for eliminating these programs.
Campaigns revolve around managing perceptions and expectations. This analysis has clearly shown the areas where Conservatives may be vulnerable, as well as the opportunities they have to connect with Canadians who are not yet convinced to vote Conservative.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,750 Canadian adults from April 28 to May 3, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
A few days before King Charles III’s coronation, a new poll from Abacus Data finds that 2 in 3 Canadians would vote to eliminate the monarchy in Canada as impressions of King Charles III worsen from the last survey in 2020.
From April 28 to May 3, Abacus Data interviewed 1,750 Canadian adults and asked some questions about the monarchy and the King’s coronation on its National Omnibus survey.
Here’s what we found:
Only 4% of Canadians will be following King Charles III’s coronation “very closely”
Few Canadians will be paying close attention to the coronation of King Charles III this weekend. 4% say they will follow the event very closely while another 12% will follow it somewhat closely. 36% say they will follow it a little while about half won’t be following it at all.
Interest in the coronation varies little by age or gender while those in Quebec are much less likely to be paying any attention to the event.
Impressions of King Charles III have become more negative since 2020, but most are either neutral or don’t know how they feel about him.
More Canadians have a negative impression of King Charles than a positive one. 33% have a negative view while 18% have a positive view. Another 36% say they have a neutral impression while 13% say they don’t know enough to have a view.
Views of King Charles don’t vary much by region except in Quebec where negatives are somewhat higher than in other parts of Canada. Younger Canadians are more likely to be unsure about their view of King Charles.
When we ask about other members of the Royal Family, King Charles and Queen Consort Camilla have higher negatives while Prince William and Princess Catherine have more positive net impressions.
Views of Prince Harry and Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex are more mixed.
Most Canadians don’t think Canada should continue to have a monarch as its head of state.
When asked whether Canada should continue to have a monarch as its head of state, 12% definitely feel it should while more than double the number feel it definitely shouldn’t. In total, 30% feel it should continue to have a monarch or lean towards feeling that way while 52% believe Canada shouldn’t or lean in that direction. 18% say they don’t care either way.
Since 2020, those who definitely think Canada should have a monarch as head of state is down 6 points while those feeling it shouldn’t have risen 7 points.
2 in 3 would vote to eliminate the monarchy in Canada
If a referendum was held about the future of the monarchy in Canada, 36% of Canadians would vote to keep the monarchy while 64% would vote to eliminate it. Those favouring eliminating the monarchy in Canada have increased by 8 points since 2020.
Support for eliminating the monarchy in Canada is consistent across demographic groups and fairly consistent across the country. A majority in every region would vote to eliminate it. In Quebec, 82% would vote to eliminate the monarchy in Canada.
Politically, support for keeping the monarchy is highest among Liberal supporters (46%) and lowest among BQ supporters (6%). 39% of Conservative supporters and 29% of NDP supporters would vote to keep the monarchy in Canada.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “Since the death of Queen Elizabeth II, Canadians have increasingly questioned the value of having a monarch as Canada’s head of state. Today, 2 in 3 would vote to eliminate the monarchy and while there’s some political difference, a majority across every party and in every region of the country want to see the monarchy eliminated.
King Charles was never been a popular figure in Canada. Since 2020, impressions of him have become slightly more negative with only about 1 in 5 saying they have a positive view of him. Notably, his son, Prince William, is seen much more favourably than he is. And Queen Elizabeth was more respected and held in a positive light than Charles. Back in December 2020, 44% of Canadians had a positive impression of the Queen compared with 15% with a negative view.
Perhaps the most significant insight from this poll is the level of indifference so many Canadians feel towards the monarchy. Few are going to be paying close attention to the coronation and although Canadians are more likely to think the monarchy shouldn’t continue, I wouldn’t say views are firm and entrenched, especially outside of Quebec.
This suggests that while Canadians may not want a monarch, I don’t suspect there’s a deep desire to see things change. This could change but right now changing Canada’s head of state isn’t likely a top issue for very many Canadians.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1750 Canadian adults from April 28 to May 3, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From April 28 to May 3, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,750 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this analysis, I update our regular tracking of opinions and attitudes toward Canadian politics with a specific focus on the Liberal Party as its policy convention is set to begin in Ottawa today.
Conservatives and Liberals remain statistically tied.
If an election was held at the time of the survey, the Conservatives would get 33% of the vote (unchanged from our last survey) the Liberals would get 31% (unchanged) and the NDP is in third at 19% (up 1). The BQ is at 7% nationally, the People’s Party at 5% and the Greens at 4%.
Regionally, the Conservatives have a slight lead in BC and a large lead in the Prairies. The Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in Ontario while the Liberals and BQ are statistically tied in Quebec. In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals have a 9-point lead over the Conservatives. All of these results are in line with your previous survey.
The Liberals are slightly ahead of the Conservatives among those under 30 while the Conservatives have a 10-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. The parties are statistically tied among those aged 30 to 44 and 60+.
We find a large gender gap in vote intentions. The Conservatives lead by 9 among men while the Liberals are ahead by 4 among women. NDP support is 9 points higher (24%) among women than it is among men (15%).
As with vote intentions, other metrics are holding steady.
30% continue to believe the country is headed in the right direction, at or near the lowest point for several years.
The federal government’s approval rating hasn’t changed much either. Today 34% approve while 49% disapprove, marginal changes from our last survey and consistent with what we have seen for several months now.
We also don’t see much shift in perceptions of the main party leaders.
Impressions of the party leaders are steady as well.
Justin Trudeau: 31% positive (+1) vs. 40% negative (+1) = -19 net
Pierre Poilievre: 31% positive (+2) vs. 35% negative (-1) = -4 net
Jagmeet Singh: 34% positive (-2) vs. 30% negative (NC) = +4 net
The Liberal Party’s Prospects
After almost eight years in office, the Liberal Party faces some significant hurdles in its quest for a fourth straight election victory. One way to understand its prospects is to examine its voter universe. Those who currently support the Liberals, don’t support them but are open to, and those who say they would not even consider voting Liberal.
Since the Liberals were first elected in October 2015, its accessible voter pool has shrunk substantially from a high of 70% soon after it was elected to 46% today. In fact, the Liberal accessible voter pool has hovered around the mid-40s now for about two years and has about the same sized accessible voter pool as the Conservatives.
Overall, 46% of Canadian adults say they are open to voting Liberal. 54% say they wouldn’t even consider voting Liberal. Of that 46% who are accessible, 25% would vote Liberal today and 21% wouldn’t vote Liberal but are open to doing so.
The first thing to note is that a majority government isn’t off the table for the Liberals. If the party was able to convert all of its accessible voters, then it could easily win a majority.
Looking at who and where these accessible voters are, we find that the party has substantial growth prospects in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada – regions that were critical to the party’s success in the past. Even 23% of Albertans who aren’t currently supporting the Liberals say they are open to voting Liberal. Theoretically, the Liberals could win close to 40% of the vote in Alberta.
Demographically, the Liberals have better growth prospects with younger voters. Gen Z and Millennials have been critical to past Liberal victories, and they will be for any future ones. But the Liberals are struggling with those aged 45 to 59. They are the age cohort least accessible to the party today.
Understanding any crossover in voter universes also can help us understand where the competition for votes is.
Among accessible Liberals, 70% are also open to voting NDP, 48% are open to the Conservatives, and 53% are open to voting Green. Among current Liberals, the greatest risk is the NDP – where 1 in 2 supporters say they are open to voting NDP. Another 1 in 4 are open to voting Conservative or for the Greens.
For the Liberals to grow support, they have to attract both undecided electors and those currently supporting other parties. Where’s the most promising ground? Well, 1 in 3 accessible Liberals would vote NDP right now. Another 1 in 5 say they would vote Conservative while 13% are voting for other smaller parties. 1 in 3 are undecided. This suggests that trying to squeeze NDP support remains the most viable path for the Liberals to increase its vote share – especially if the prospect of a Conservative government continues to become the perception of these voters.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “My reading of the Canadian political landscape hasn’t changed much in the past few weeks. The Conservatives have a small advantage but by all accounts, the political environment looks very much like it did at the end of the 2021 election. The only important difference remains that impressions of the Prime Minister, his government, and the direction of the country are all decidedly more negative than in the Fall of 2021.
In my view, what’s keeping the Liberals competitive are the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. They have not established themselves as acceptable alternatives to enough voters yet. That could change as those who don’t normally follow politics engage closer to an election. Alternatively, those who might otherwise vote Liberal may be less enthusiastic about that choice and simply decide to stay home. Both are viable paths for a Conservative win.
But at this stage, anyone who says the Liberals cannot win again aren’t paying close attention to the data. While the Liberal accessible voter pool is smaller than it was only a few years ago, it’s not too small. There’s still a path for another Liberal victory, even a majority one.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1750 Canadian adults from April 28 to May 3, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
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About Abacus Data Inc.
We are the only firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threats of generational change and technological disruption.
Founded in 2010, Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We work with brands and organizations such as Shaw Communications, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Mining Association of Canada, Food & Consumer Products of Canada, NAV Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association, Teck, Imperial Oil, Nestle Waters, Google, Air Canada Pilots Association, NUPGE, HealthPartners, the Paramedic Association of Canada, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and the Canadian Health Food Association.
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On behalf of the CLHIA, Abacus Data and Spark Insights conducted a nationwide survey of 3000 adult Canadians. The interviewing was done online between February 17 and 23, 2023. This is #3 of a series of releases highlighting key findings from that study. More information can be sought from Susan Murray of CLHIA or Bruce Anderson bruce@sparkadvocacy.ca
PUBLIC AND NON-PUBLIC DELIVERY
Most Canadians (62%) believe a blend of public and non-public delivery of health care, provides better health care than a public only system. A minority (38%) believes that it would be better if every health service was delivered by service providers in the public sector.
REACTION TO INNOVATIONS
Given the level of frustration evident with the health system today (see our prior releases) it is not surprising that Canadians are generally open to ideas that may represent solutions to the service performance they see.
VIRTUAL CARE
MENTAL HEALTH
SUMMARY
Canadians are broadly interested in innovations that can improve their access to health services and do it in affordable ways. Many support tax incentives to expand take-up of group insurance plans, and are open to expanded use of non-public clinics and service providers, where the cost of these services are covered by public or group insurance, and not paid for out of pocket by the consumer.
With respect to virtual care, the pandemic created opportunities for a lot more people to experience this innovation and the response has been broadly positive – to the point that almost a third of consumers would prefer their first step to be a virtual one in the future.
Finally, evidence of growing demand for mental health services has been clear in recent years and is especially notable among younger people. There is a significant gap between that rising demand and the availability of mental health services.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian residents from February 17th to 23rd, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT DAVID COLETTO
David Coletto is Chair, CEO and a founding partner of Abacus Data a full-service market research and strategy firm based in Ottawa and Toronto. With over a decade and a half of experience in the industry, David and his partners founded Abacus 12 years ago and since then David has become one of Canada’s most respected social researchers regularly commenting on politics, the labour market, and consumer behaviour.
He earned a PhD in Political Science from the University of Calgary in 2010 and is an adjunct professor at Carleton University. He is the host and producer of inFocus with David Coletto a podcast that explores the intersection of public opinion, politics, public policy, and consumer behaviour.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
A recent Abacus Data poll showed that around 40% of the parents of younger homeowners have supported their children financially, with the average … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.castanet.net/edition/news-story-423973-1093-.htm&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3fmulKNt0Tj1CKaV2KKupM