Canadians Show Growing Support for Military and Defence Spending

Our national survey reveals an increase in Canadians’ positive impressions of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), alongside growing trust in their ability to defend the country. There is also strong public support for the government’s commitment to increased defence spending.

While Canadians prioritize domestic roles for the CAF, such as defending national territory and responding to natural disasters, they also express nuanced views on key challenges and the complexities of military procurement in a shifting political landscape.

This survey, conducted among 1,500 Canadian adults from June 17 to 19, 2025, explores public opinion on the CAF and the recently announced increase to the defence budget. Several questions were tracked from a previous survey conducted in March 2025, during the federal election campaign. For full results, see here.

Growing support for the Canadian Armed Forces

In March this year, we asked Canadians about their impressions of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). We repeated the question in this study, and the results show a positive shift in public sentiment. A combined 67% of Canadians now have a very or mostly positive impression of the CAF, an increase of 7 points since March. Notably, the share of those with a very positive impression rose from 21% to 31%, a 10-point gain.

Meanwhile, 20% of respondents reported a neutral impression, down 3 points from March. Only 5% said they have a very or mostly negative impression, reflecting a 4-point decrease.

Favourable opinions remain strongest among Canadians aged 60 and older, as well as those living in the Atlantic region.

Next, we asked Canadians again whether they trust or distrust the Canadian Armed Forces’ ability to effectively defend Canada.  

Overall, 62% of Canadians say they completely or somewhat trust the CAF to defend the country. This represents a 13-point increase compared to March. The proportion of those who completely trust the CAF rose by 8 points, reaching 26%.

Meanwhile, 16% say they neither trust nor distrust the CAF, which is a 4-point decrease. Another 14% express some level of distrust, marking a 9-point decline.

Trust is notably higher among young Canadians aged 18 to 29. In contrast, older Canadians aged 60 and over tend to show more distrust. The highest levels of trust are currently reported in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.

Backing the announcement of increased defence spending

First, we provided a brief reminder about the recent defence budget announcement by Prime Minister Mark Carney, confirming that Canada will meet its 2% NATO spending target this year.

Overall, 62% of Canadians strongly or somewhat support the announcement of increased defence spending. An additional 18% say they can accept it, while 9% oppose the announcement. Support varies by political affiliation, with 74% of Liberal voters expressing support, compared to lower levels among Conservative voters (60%) and NDP voters (51%). This aligns with our March findings, which showed that 65% of Canadians believe a new federal government should spend significantly or somewhat more on Canada’s defence than it does currently.

Support for halting U.S. military purchases slips

Given the growing connection between military equipment purchases and the ongoing tariff dispute with the new Trump administration, we asked Canadians whether they support or oppose the federal government immediately halting the purchase of defence and military equipment from the United States. This question was first asked in March 2025 and repeated in the current study.

Support for an immediate halt has declined since March. Combined support now stands at 56%, an 8-point drop. Those who strongly support the measure have decreased by 7 points. Meanwhile, the share of Canadians who neither support nor oppose the idea has risen slightly to 25%, an increase of 4 points. Opposition to an immediate stop has grown as well, now at 11%, up 3 points since March.

Support for an immediate stop continues to vary by political affiliation. Conservative voters show the lowest level of support at 46%, down 7 points since March. In comparison, support among Liberal voters stands at 67% (down 8 points), while 64% of NDP voters support the measure (a 9-point drop).

These shifts suggest that while a majority still backs the idea of halting military purchases from the U.S., support is softening across the political spectrum as Canadians reassess their positions in the context of evolving economic and diplomatic tensions.

Views on the CAF’s role and key issues

We asked Canadians how they perceive the importance of the Canadian Armed Forces across various areas. The top two combined ratings (essential and very important) show that Canadians view defending Canadian territory and sovereignty (72%) and responding to natural disasters in Canada (71%) as the most critical roles of the CAF. Providing jobs and training opportunities for Canadians (62%) and representing Canada internationally (61%) are ranking behind. Roles such as contributing to peacekeeping missions (57%), supporting NATO and international alliances (56%), and supporting global security efforts like in Ukraine or the Indo-Pacific (49%) are considered less critical, though still important, by about half the respondents.

The results highlight Canadians’ strong preference for focusing on domestic defence and disaster response rather than international military engagement.

As a final question, we asked Canadians what they believe are the real problems facing the Canadian Armed Forces today. The top concerns identified were outdated equipment (42%), difficulty recruiting new personnel (40%), and a lack of readiness for modern threats such as cyberattacks (31%). Issues seen as less critical by Canadians include declining trust in the institution (24%), high attrition rates (23%), harassment and misconduct (23%), and a lack of leadership or vision (20%). Additionally, 22% of Canadians felt they did not know enough to provide an opinion.

THE UPSHOT

In the early weeks of Prime Minister Carney’s new federal government, Canadians are expressing stronger support for the Canadian Armed Forces, with trust and positive impressions rising since March. This shift coincides with broad approval of the recent defence spending announcement, particularly among Liberal voters.

At the same time, support for halting defence equipment purchases from the United States is softening. Although a majority (56%) still favour the idea, support has dropped across all political groups, suggesting that Canadians may be weighing economic and diplomatic concerns more heavily in light of the ongoing trade dispute with the Trump administration.

Public opinion also reveals a well-defined set of priorities. Canadians want the CAF to concentrate primarily on domestic responsibilities, showing less enthusiasm for international military engagement. At the same time, Canadians recognize key internal challenges facing the military, including outdated equipment, difficulties in recruiting new personnel, and insufficient readiness for modern threats such as cyberattacks.

Overall, the results point to a growing alignment among Canadians in support of a stronger, better-funded, and more trusted military. While views on specific policies vary, there is clear momentum behind reinforcing the CAF’s role in national defence and readiness.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 17 – 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsInternational AffairsPolitics

Abacus Data Poll: Optimism reaches a multi-year high as Canadians ease into summer. Carney government maintains strong support, but vote choice remains tight.

From June 26 to July 2, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. Fielded after the House of Commons rose for the summer and the passage of Bill C-5, this latest wave captures public opinion at a moment of political calm and relative confidence. What emerges is a Canadian electorate growing more optimistic, generally supportive of the federal government, and still sharply divided in vote intention.

Direction of the Country

A defining feature of this wave is the rise in optimism. Four in ten Canadians (40%) now believe the country is heading in the right direction, the highest level recorded in over three years and up from 36% in our last survey two weeks earlier. While a plurality (44%) still feel things are off on the wrong track, this marks a continuation of a slow but steady trend toward a more positive national outlook. In contrast, views about the broader world remain deeply pessimistic, with only 14% feeling good about its trajectory, and just 13% saying the same about the United States.

Drilling into subgroup differences reveals that optimism is most pronounced among Liberal voters (60%), those living in Atlantic Canada (51%), and those aged 60 and over (45%). Men (44%) are more likely than women (35%) to say the country is on the right path. Regionally, 36% of Quebecers, 41% of Ontarians, and only 27% of those in SAlberta believe the country is headed in the right direction.

What’s Keeping Canadians Up at Night?

Canadians’ attention over the Canada Day weekend was clearly focused on global instability. When asked what was keeping them up at night, respondents most commonly mentioned “war,” “Trump,” “Iran,” and “tariffs.” The word cloud generated by these responses underscores a population still grappling with macro-level anxieties—international conflict, volatile trade dynamics, and an unpredictable American political environment. While domestic economic pressures remain ever-present, global turmoil looms large in the Canadian psyche.

Top Issues: Shared Concern, Divergent Priorities

On domestic priorities, the top issues facing the country remain largely unchanged. The rising cost of living dominates at 59%, followed by Donald Trump and his administration (46%), the economy (38%), housing (37%), and healthcare (32%). But the differences by partisanship and age are striking and tell a story about the political divide in Canada today.

Among Liberal supporters, Trump ranks as the second most important issue (60%), just behind affordability. They are also more likely to prioritize healthcare (37%) and climate change (18%) than Conservative supporters. For Conservative voters, the picture is different. Cost of living is top (63%), followed by the economy (46%), housing (35%), Trump (33%), and then immigration (30%). The gap on climate change is striking (18% among Liberals compared with 4% for Conservatives).

Age plays a critical role in shaping priorities. Younger Canadians under 45 are far more likely to cite housing (45%), job security (20%), and inequality (16%) than their older counterparts. Meanwhile, Canadians over 45 place more emphasis on healthcare (39%) and Donald Trump (55%). These generational distinctions suggest that while cost of living is a shared concern, the political pathways to addressing that anxiety diverge significantly depending on life stage.

Carney Government Approval Remains High

Approval of the federal government remains steady and in highly positive territory. Today, 52% of Canadians say they approve of the job the Carney government is doing, compared with only 25% who disapprove. These numbers are virtually unchanged from our last survey and continue a strong trend since Mark Carney became Prime Minister in March. Carney’s government is still in the political honeymoon phase, but what’s noteworthy is how long that honeymoon is lasting and how broad its base of support is.

Regionally, the Carney government enjoys majority approval in every part of the country except Alberta. In Ontario, 55% approve of the federal government, as do 52% in Quebec, 59% in Atlantic Canada, and 46% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Even in Alberta, often the epicentre of federal Liberal government criticism, a plurality of 40% say they approve of the government’s performance a noteworthy number in a province where federal Liberals have long struggled to gain traction. Men (54%) are slightly more supportive than women (50%), and among Canadians over 60, 58% give the government high marks.

Leader Impressions: Carney’s Strength, Poilievre’s Polarization

As with government approval, personal impressions of Prime Minister Carney remain strong and consistent. Nationally, 49% have a positive impression of him, compared to 28% who view him negatively, resulting in a net favourability score of +21. These numbers have held steady since the election and reflect a leader with broad, but not universal, appeal.

What’s particularly important to note is that Carney’s net positive scores extend across almost every demographic and regional subgroup. His favourability is +24 in Ontario, +24 in Atlantic Canada, and a striking +34 in Quebec. He is slightly more liked among men than women (+23 vs. +21), and gets his highest scores among Baby Boomers (+33). Only in Alberta (-10) and among Conservative voters (-38) does Carney’s net impression dip into negative territory and even among those Canadians, the numbers are not that bad.

The impression of Pierre Poilievre presents a very different picture. While 39% of Canadians say they have a positive impression of the Conservative leader, 43% say they view him negatively, resulting in a net favourability of -4.

More important than the topline number, however, is the polarization it reflects. Among Conservative supporters, Poilievre’s net favourability is high at +77. But among Liberal voters, it is -65. Among NDP supporters, it is -63. Regionally, his strongest numbers come from Alberta (+25) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (+15), but he scores in negative territory everywhere else, including -25 in Quebec and -17 in Atlantic Canada.

The generational differences in views towards Poilievre are also noteworthy. Among those under 45, he has a net favourable impression. The opposite is true among older Canadians.

This level of polarization poses both opportunities and limits for Poilievre. His base is solid and enthusiastic. But outside of that core, he faces considerable resistance. Unless he can reshape perceptions among non-Conservative supporters, his pathway to majority support will depend on the erosion of the Liberal coalition more than expansion of his own.

Trump: Universally Unpopular

For contrast, impressions of former U.S. President Donald Trump are dramatically worse than either Canadian leader. Just 13% of Canadians have a favourable opinion of Trump, while 76% view him negatively yielding a net favourability of -63. Trump is seen far more negatively in Canada than any domestic political figure, and his continued influence on American politics remains a potent factor in shaping Canadian public opinion.

Desire for Change Continues to Erode

Perhaps the most remarkable shift captured in this wave is the continued decline in the public’s desire for change. Today, only 39% of Canadians say it is time for a change and believe there is a good alternative to the Liberals. That’s down from a high of 56% in December (when Trudeau hadn’t yet announced his departure), when just 11% believed the Liberals deserved to be re-elected. Now, 35% believe the Liberals should be re-elected, while another 26% say change is needed but don’t see a viable alternative. The “time for change” sentiment has not disappeared, but it is softening—and the government’s growing re-elect number suggests that Carney continues to shift some of the deep fatigue Canadians felt with the Liberal brand under Justin Trudeau.

Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals Hold the Advantage

Turning to accessible voter pools, the Liberals now lead the Conservatives by five points nationally—58% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 53% who say they would consider voting Conservative. In Quebec, the Liberal accessible pool is even larger (60%), and in Ontario it sits at 60% as well. The NDP’s accessible pool remains historically low at just 36%, reflecting their ongoing struggle to gain relevance in the current federal dynamic.

Vote Intention: Tight as Ever

Despite these strong fundamentals, vote intention remains stubbornly tight. If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Liberal, while 40% would vote Conservative—a statistically insignificant one-point difference. The NDP is at 9%, the Bloc at 7%, and the Greens and People’s Party both at 2%. Among those certain to vote, the numbers are virtually identical. This suggests that while Canadians like what they see so far from the Carney government, it has not yet been enough to shift partisan allegiance among those who voted Conservative in April’s election.

Looking deeper into vote intention by region, the Liberals lead in Quebec (42% to 31%) and Atlantic Canada (47% to 37%), are neck-and-neck in Ontario (44% Liberal, 43% Conservative), and trail badly in Alberta (60% Conservative, 27% Liberal) and the Prairies (54% to 33%). In British Columbia, the race is also tight, with the Conservatives slightly ahead at 41% compared to 39% for the Liberals, and 14% for the NDP.

Demographic Trends: Age, Gender, and Education

The age divide in vote intention remains a defining feature of Canada’s political landscape. Among voters aged 18 to 29, the Conservatives head by 5, with the NDP in third at 12%. Among those 30 to 44, the same split hold. However, among Canadians aged 45 to 59, the Liberals take a five-point lead (42% to 37%), and among those 60 and over, the lead grows to seven points (45% Liberal to 38% Conservative).

There are also meaningful differences by gender and education. Among women, the Liberals lead by four points (41% to 37%), while among men, the Conservatives are ahead by two (42% to 40%). Education continues to be one of the strongest predictors of vote: among university-educated Canadians, the Liberals lead 49% to 35%; among those with only a high school education, the Conservatives are ahead 44% to 37%.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As Parliament rises for the summer and Canadians turn their attention to barbecues, travel, and the (hopeful) return of some normalcy, this wave of data shows a country feeling more optimistic than it has in years. The Carney government continues to earn strong marks, with a majority approving of its performance, and a growing share believing the Liberals deserve re-election.

Earlier this week, we released new polling on how Canadians feel about the government’s progress on its seven priorities. It provides more complexity to how people feel about what the government is focused on.

At the same time, Mark Carney’s personal brand is proving to be a key asset, broadly appealing across regions, generations, and even to some outside the Liberal base. But the race remains tight. Goodwill has not yet translated into vote switching. Conservatives remain highly motivated and unified behind Pierre Poilievre, even as he struggles to broaden his appeal. For now, the electorate appears content to give Carney a chance to deliver on his agenda.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 26 to July 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

Fifteen Years of Asking Better Questions

Today is Abacus Data’s 15th birthday.

What started as a two-person firm in Ottawa with a bold idea that great research could help leaders make better decisions, has grown into a team of 15 exceptional people based in Ottawa, Toronto, Hamilton, London, Edmonton, and now, Halifax.

It’s a moment of reflection. But more than that, it’s a celebration of what we’ve built together: a company that is now, I believe, the most influential, most impactful, and most sought-after polling and market research firm in Canada.

We didn’t get here by luck. We got here by choosing a different path, staying true to our values, and delivering consistent, thoughtful, and independent work.

2025: A Year That Put Us to the Test

This past year tested everything we’ve built.

The 2025 federal election gave us the opportunity to show what we do best: ask better questions, see beyond the headlines and horserace, and provide insights that truly matter. I’m incredibly proud of the quality of work we produced – from our deep-dive analysis of what was driving public opinion, to models that helped explain vote choices.

We didn’t just follow the campaign—we shaped how it was understood. Our research helped journalists, political leaders, advocacy groups, and everyday Canadians make sense of what was happening, and why.

We’ve long believed that good polling is about more than just numbers. It’s about narrative. It’s about trust. It’s about giving people a window into how Canadians are thinking, feeling, and acting at any given moment.

That belief guided us through the campaign and continues to shape every project we take on.

Fifteen Years of Growth and We’re Just Getting Started

Over the past 15 years, we’ve grown steadily and intentionally.

Our revenues have increased consistently by 10% annually. We’ve opened offices in Toronto and Halifax beyond our headquarters in Ottawa, with plans underway to expand into British Columbia and the Prairies. What started as a bold idea in Ottawa is now a national firm with a growing footprint across the country.

We were the first to bring multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to Canadian political research and we’re continuing to push the boundaries. Today, we’re leveraging AI to accelerate our workflows and unlock deeper insights from the data we collect. These tools are making our work faster, smarter, and more valuable for our clients.

We’re also building a reputation far beyond our polling reports. Our leadership team is in demand across every sector from healthcare to energy, from finance, to housing, to agriculture and food. We are asked to brief boards, advise executive teams, and speak to national and international audiences.

Personally, I’ve delivered nearly 50 keynotes and briefings in the past year alone. I’ve been on the road almost constantly, sharing what we’re learning about the Canadian public and helping leaders make sense of this moment. Identifying unmet needs is what we do best. Brands and leaders who identify them and meet them first, win.

We’ve built something that matters. And we’re still growing.

Enlightened Hospitality, Always

One of the principles that defines how we work is something called Enlightened Hospitality.

It’s a term I borrowed from Danny Meyer, the famed restaurateur and founder of Shake Shack, and it captures how we approach every client, every project, and every member of our team.

It means we put people first. Always.

For our clients, that means we’re responsive, we’re thoughtful, and we never treat you like just another file. We see ourselves as partners in your success. Our job isn’t to deliver a report – it’s to deliver clarity, confidence, and impact.

For Canadians, it means we take our responsibility seriously. When you answer one of our surveys, when you share your opinion, we listen. We reflect. We respect your time and your voice. And we work hard to ensure your answers lead to better decisions by the people and organizations who shape your world.

That sense of purpose drives us. It’s why we’ve been able to build long-term relationships with so many organizations across sectors from governments to associations, corporations, unions, and non-profits. And its why we defend on our independence fiercely and share insights regardless of who might like them.

It’s also why we’ve earned trust. You don’t become the go-to research firm for CEOs, media outlets, and policy makers unless you’re delivering something real. And we are.

Growing with Purpose: A New Home in Atlantic Canada

In the past year, we expanded our footprint once again opening a new office in Halifax and growing our presence in Atlantic Canada.

For years, we’ve worked with clients in the region. But we felt it was time to build a more permanent home there. We’ve added a senior lead who knows the region well, formed new partnerships, and deepened our understanding of a region that’s becoming more and more important in shaping Canada’s future.

This expansion reflects what Abacus is about: thoughtful growth, rooted in service, driven by curiosity.

It’s not just about entering new markets. It’s about being close to the people and places we’re trying to understand. It’s about knowing that good research is local, contextual, and connected to the lived experiences of Canadians across the country.

The Power of a Strong Team

From two people to a 15-person team spread across the country, our growth has been steady but intentional.

What hasn’t changed is the kind of people we hire.

Our team is kind, smart, curious, and committed to doing work that matters. They care about the client experience. They care about the integrity of the data. They care about getting it right.

We have methodologists and strategists. We have storytellers and designers. We have emerging leaders who are already shaping the future of this firm and our industry. And we have teammates who show up every day with humility and hustle.

They’re the reason we’ve become what we are. And they’re the reason we’re only just getting started.

A Canadian Company for This Moment

We’re proud to be a Canadian company and we’re optimistic about Canada’s future.

Yes, there are real challenges: housing, affordability, climate change, political polarization, and a changing global order. But there’s also immense opportunity.

Canada has what the world wants – resources, talent, stability, and beauty. But more than that, we have values the world needs: openness, fairness, pluralism, and a belief in the common good.

We also have a uniquely Canadian perspective. One shaped by diversity. One that sees strength in difference. One that believes progress is possible if we’re willing to listen, reflect, and act together.

At Abacus, we try to embody those values in everything we do. We believe in evidence. We believe in truth. And we believe that good data, when used well, can help build a better country.

That optimism shows up in our work. In how we help organizations navigate uncertainty. In how we help governments understand their citizens. In how we help advocates build coalitions and movements. And in how we show that public opinion isn’t just something to be managed, it’s something to be understood.

What Comes Next

We’re not slowing down.

We’re building new tools to understand the Canadian public more deeply and in real time. Our Abacus Communities platform is giving clients a direct line to Canadians. Our advanced analytics capabilities are helping us move from descriptive insights to predictive power.

We’re investing in new products, new partnerships, and new team members.

We’re also evolving our mission.

Yes, we still ask people questions. And we still help leaders make better decisions. But more and more, our job is to help organizations make sense of complexity—to be a signal in the noise.

To turn data into strategy.

To turn opinions into action.

To turn a moment into a movement.

A Final Thank You

If you’ve worked with us, followed our work, shared one of our polls, or answered one of our surveys- thank you.

You’ve helped build Abacus into what it is today: a trusted source of insight, a builder of bridges, and a team committed to making Canada better.

Fifteen years ago, this was just an idea.

Today, it’s a company with national reach, a respected brand, and a growing community of clients, partners, and readers who believe in what we do.

And tomorrow?

We’ll be back at it asking questions, listening carefully, and helping Canada make its next set of decisions a little bit smarter.

With gratitude and optimism,


David Coletto
Founder & CEO
Abacus Data

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after and influential full-service market and public opinion research agency.

But what we really do is identify the unmet needs of your audience and develop strategies for you to meet those unmet needs first.

Through qualitative and quantitative research methods, our deep experience and and wide perspective, we ask the right questions that capture insights, show you where things are going to be, and help our clients navigate some of their biggest challenges, deepen relationships with customers and stakeholders, and better understand the road ahead.

About David Coletto

David is one of Canada’s best known and most respected public opinion analysts, pollsters, and social researchers. He works with some of North America and Europe’s biggest and most respected brands, associations, and unions andis frequently called upon by news organizations,
to assess public opinion as events happen.

In January 2024, The Hill Times recognized him as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in Canadian Politics noting, “when David Coletto releases polling numbers, Ottawa listens.”

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

BlogCanadian Politics

Mark Carney’s Seven Priorities: Setting Up a Report Card on Alignment, Impact, and Perceived Progress

When Mark Carney became Prime Minister earlier this year, he introduced a new way of governing – one that sought to bring strategic discipline to a sprawling federal government. Instead of issuing dozens of separate mandate letters, Carney delivered a single, unified set of seven national priorities to guide every department and minister in his government.

The signal was clear: Canadians should judge this government not on its talking points or press releases, but on its ability to make meaningful progress on these seven interrelated goals.

In this environment, measuring perception matters more than ever. Clear priorities create clarity for citizens but also accountability. If the public understands what the government says it’s doing, they’re better equipped to notice when it falls short or reward it when it succeeds.

This report based on a national survey of 1,500 adults conducted by Abacus Data from June 17 to 19, 2025 offers a baseline assessment of how Canadians feel about the Carney government’s priorities. It examines three things:

  1. Are Carney’s seven priorities aligned with what Canadians care about?
  2. Do Canadians think achieving them would make a difference in their lives?
  3. Do they believe the government has started making real progress?

We’ll track these three indicators every quarter during the Carney government’s mandate and make detailed results available to subscribers (sign up for the mailing list here).

Clarity and Simplicity in at a Noisy Moment

Before diving into the results, it’s worth reflecting on just how unusual it is for a federal government to distill its goals into a simple, shared list. In a political environment defined by fragmentation and institutional overload, Carney’s seven-priority model stands out for its clarity.

But as any communicator knows, clarity can be a double-edged sword. It builds trust when people see things moving but it can also make inaction more conspicuous.

That’s why we’re taking this research so seriously. This isn’t just another approval tracker. It goes deeper to understand how people are reacting to the things the Carney government is doing. And it shows where expectations are rising, where gaps are emerging, and where the government’s coalition may be growing restless.

One of the central questions this research set out to answer is deceptively simple: Are the Prime Minister’s priorities also the public’s priorities?

Our data shows that, on balance, the Carney government’s seven priorities are largely in sync with what Canadians say they want from their federal government. That alignment is strongest on economic and affordability issues but holds across the board.

The chart below outlines the public’s ranking of these priorities in terms of importance. Canadians were asked whether each item should be a top priority, lower priority, or not a priority right now.

Here’s what stands out:

1. Affordability –continues to lead

  • 74% of Canadians say lowering costs and helping people get ahead should be a top priority, and another 16% consider it a lower priority.
  • That puts it at 89% total support—a clear signal that cost-of-living remains the dominant issue for most people.
  • Among Liberal voters, that number climbs to 91%.

Affordability also leads when you ask Canadians to pick their top three priorities and which would be the most meaningful personally.

Prioritizing affordability is clearly in line with public expectations. The challenge, as discussed earlier, is delivering visible progress on it.

2. Housing and Economic Unity Come Next

  • 65% say making housing affordable through public-private partnerships and skilled trades should be a top priority, with another 21% calling it a lower priority (86% total).
  • 66% say unifying Canada’s economy—removing trade barriers and fast-tracking key national projects—should be a top priority, again supported by nearly nine in ten Canadians (84% total).

3. Strong Support for Sovereignty, Fiscal Discipline, and Partnerships

  • 60% say protecting sovereignty through military, border, and law enforcement improvements should be a top priority, with 25% saying it should be a lower one. That’s 84% in total, including 87% of Liberal voters.
  • 52% say reducing government spending to allow private-sector investment and growth should be a top priority (81% total when adding in “lower priority” responses).
  • 56% support forging a new economic and security partnership with the U.S. and allies as a top priority, with 24% saying it should be a lower one (80% total).

These numbers suggest that while the “kitchen table” issues dominate, there remains strong public support for Canada playing a larger strategic and economic role globally, as long as domestic needs are not neglected.

In particular, the spending restraint agenda, sometimes assumed to be a Conservative talking point, garnered support from 80% of Liberal voters. This suggests that much of the Liberal coalition and a large majority of Canadians today are increasingly concerned with fiscal prudence.

Interestingly, because of how much they have dominated news and opposition coverage, immigration and a trade relationship with the US are least likely to be listed as a priority.

In sum, three- quarters plus believe all seven of this governments’ priorities deserve a place on the list making this list well-aligned with the Canadian mindset, right now.

The Coalition That Elected the Liberals Is Aligned – But Watching Closely

Among those who voted Liberal, the rankings were quite similar to the national population. This is important.

It tells us that Carney’s priorities reflect the values and expectations of his electoral coalition. But alignment alone is not enough. The people who chose the Liberals over other options are invested in these priorities—perhaps even more so than the general public. They expect delivery. And they’re paying attention.

Do These Priorities Matter Personally?

We also asked Canadians whether achieving each of the seven priorities would be a good or bad thing for them personally.

Unsurprisingly, lowering costs and helping Canadians get ahead again tops the list, with 74% saying it would be good for them, including 49% who say very good. Housing affordability, economic unification, and protecting sovereignty also scored highly—each seen as good for at least 60% of respondents.

But some priorities feel more distant from people’s everyday experience. Only 55% say forging new economic and security partnerships with the U.S. and global allies would be good for them personally. And just 49% say the same for immigration reform.

This gap between macro-importance and micro-relevance is one of the biggest communications challenges facing the Carney government. Canadians are not opposed to big-picture ideas—but they will need clear examples to show how addressing these priorities has a tangible impact on their lives.  

Alignment Isn’t the Problem. Expectation Management Might Be.

Taken together, these findings show that the Carney government has crafted a list of priorities that broadly reflects the public’s own ranking of what matters. The total support (top + lower priority) for each priority ranges from 77% to 89%—a remarkably tight and high band.

The Prime Minister and his team deserve credit for this. This isn’t a scattershot list designed to appeal to every niche audience. It’s a tight agenda that reflects national concerns, is relatively non-partisan in tone, and importantly makes it easier for Canadians to follow and judge performance. It also helps differentiate Carney from Trudeau, which was essential in his election victory. The more people think Carney’s government is like Trudeau’s, the less they like it.

But alignment is only part of the puzzle. The government’s next test is to ensure that Canadians don’t just support the priorities but start to feel progress on the ones they care about most. As the progress data reveals, that’s where the greatest vulnerability lies today.

Measuring Progress: What Canadians Feel Matters Most

Perhaps the most vital part of this report is our assessment of perceived progress.

We are not asking people to assess whether a bill has passed the House or whether a regulation has been published in the Canada Gazette. We are measuring how people feel about progress.

And this matters, because in politics, perception often becomes reality. If people don’t feel like change is happening, it can damage trust—even if, behind the scenes, the policy machinery is hard at work.

So how does the Carney government fare so far?

Mixed Grades on Momentum

The results are telling. Canadians were asked whether the government has:

  • Completed the priority or made more progress than expected
  • Is on track
  • Made less progress than expected
  • Hasn’t started
  • Or if they don’t know

We have combined the first two options into a single metric – % On Track or Better – to summarize perceived momentum.

The highest-ranked priority on this metric is unifying Canada’s economy, with 49% saying the government is on track or ahead of schedule. Similarly, 48% say progress is happening on protecting sovereignty and 46% say so for the U.S./global partnership goal.

These are respectable numbers early in a mandate – and may reflect early speeches, symbolic visits, and signals of intent. Also, worth noting that this research was done just after the G7 but before the House of Commons passed Bill C-5, An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act

But the danger signs come into focus with the two most important priorities to voters:

  • Only 32% think the government is on track on affordability.
  • Just 30% say the same about housing.

Worse still: over half of Canadians believe the government is making less progress than expected or hasn’t even started on either of these. For example, 29% say the government has not started making housing more affordable, and another 25% say it’s making less progress than expected.

Among Liberal voters, the picture improves modestly – but still shows real risk. Just 42% believe progress is being made on affordability. That’s lower than the levels for economic unification, sovereignty, or international partnerships. The same goes for housing, with only 41% of Liberals saying the government is on track.

Why the Progress Gap Matters

The gap between priority and progress has real political implications.

When people care deeply about an issue and don’t see movement, it can create frustration, disengagement, or even backlash. The danger is not just that people will say the government is “not delivering”, it’s that they stop believing it can.

It is worth noting that the two issues with the least amount of movement are the priorities Canadians care most about- and say have the biggest repercussions on their lives.

In this environment, early signs of motion can punch above their weight. A highly visible investment. A strong first set of results. A well-communicated partnership. These can all shift the needle not just because of the substance, but because they begin to change the storyline.

A Framework for Understanding Government Effectiveness

The scorecard approach we’re using – Priority, Personal Relevance, Perceived Progress – is more than a polling framework. It’s a way of assessing the government’s ability to align policy with lived experience. And it’s the approach we take with the custom work we do with our clients.

Here’s a summary view:

The story this tells is simple:

  • The top two issues for Canadians are affordability and housing.
  • They feel those are where the least progress is being made.
  • Unless that changes over the next year, it may impact how the Carney government is judged.

Final Thoughts: Momentum Is the Message

Mark Carney’s priorities are clear. The public mostly agrees with them. But clarity raises expectations.

If this government is to succeed it must show that the machine of government is delivering on the things people care most about.

And if it wants to hold the coalition that brought it into office, that progress must be felt, not just announced.

We’ll be back in the fall with the next report card. And we’ll be watching to see whether perception catches up with ambition.

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About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after and influential full-service market and public opinion research agency.

But what we really do is identify the unmet needs of your audience and develop strategies for you to meet those unmet needs first.

Through qualitative and quantitative research methods, our deep experience and and wide perspective, we ask the right questions that capture insights, show you where things are going to be, and help our clients navigate some of their biggest challenges, deepen relationships with customers and stakeholders, and better understand the road ahead.

About David Coletto

David is one of Canada’s best known and most respected public opinion analysts, pollsters, and social researchers. He works with some of North America and Europe’s biggest and most respected brands, associations, and unions andis frequently called upon by news organizations,
to assess public opinion as events happen.

In January 2024, The Hill Times recognized him as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in Canadian Politics noting, “when David Coletto releases polling numbers, Ottawa listens.”

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Survey Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 17 to 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This research was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Canadian PoliticsPolls

68% of Canadians Take Pride in Their National Identity

Between June 17 and 19, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults to assess their sense of national pride, connection to the country, and overall outlook. Over the past year, Canadians have faced numerous challenges and uncertainties. Leadership changes, shifting global dynamics, and questions about Canada’s place on the world stage, particularly in relation to the United States, have contributed to a sense of instability. On a personal level, many Canadians have also been grappling with issues such as housing affordability, job insecurity, and access to healthcare. Despite these difficulties, Canadians have remained resilient. The survey findings reveal a strong sense of pride, particularly in Canada’s natural beauty, healthcare system, and societal safety. While economic challenges and future uncertainties persist, many Canadians maintain a resilient optimism about the country’s direction.

Pride in Canadian Identity

As Canada Day approaches, a growing number of Canadians – 68% in fact – express pride in their national identity, marking a subtle 2-point increase from 2024. While pride is widespread, there are notable age differences. Older Canadians, particularly those aged 60+, report the highest levels of pride at 83%, reflecting a deep connection to Canada’s values and history. In contrast, younger Canadians, especially those in the 30-44 age group, report the lowest levels at 59%, possibly due to challenges like economic instability and political concerns.

A notable shift has occurred among young Canadians aged 18-29. This year, 62% report feeling proud to be Canadian, marking a 13-point increase from 2024 when only 49% of this group felt the same. This surge suggests a new sense of national identity emerging among younger generations, potentially driven by global issues and an increasing recognition of Canada’s unique role on the world stage.

What Makes Canadians Proud

Canadians’ pride is largely driven by the country’s natural beauty, with 65% citing it as a primary source of national pride, reflecting the country’s vast landscapes, pristine wilderness, and dedication to environmental conservation. Alongside this, 62% of Canadians take pride in the peaceful and safe society that distinguishes the nation, an attribute that remains significant amidst global instability. Universal healthcare continues to be a strong source of pride for 60% of Canadians, emphasizing the country’s commitment to equity and access to essential health services.

What stands out this year is the growing pride in Canada’s distinct identity, with 56% of Canadians highlighting this aspect. This sense of difference feels especially significant given the current global political climate and challenges from our southern neighbor. As global tensions rise, Canadians are embracing their unique identity, seeing it as something increasingly worth celebrating.

Challenges to National Pride

While pride in being Canadian remains high, it’s important to recognize the challenges some face in fully embracing their national identity. Among those who do not feel proud, 53% cited disagreement with Canadian politics as a key barrier, while another 53% feel that economic struggles or lack of opportunities diminish their connection to the country. For many, these present-day challenges can overshadow the pride others feel.

Another notable shift is the increase in the number of Canadians – 39%, up from 31% in 2024 – who feel a lack of cultural identity or connection to Canadian values. This growing sense of disconnection may be linked to frustrations with institutions that are meant to represent them. In fact, 38% of Canadians report negative experiences with key institutions like healthcare, education, and public services. These issues, especially when they impact daily life, can erode the pride many have.

Interestingly, the perception of Canada’s global reputation has improved, with only 24% of Canadians now citing it as a reason for not feeling proud, a significant decrease from 42% in 2024. This shift may reflect growing confidence in the country’s direction and a shift in leadership.

Personal Connection to Canada

A majority of Canadians (63%) feel personally connected to their country. However, the intensity of this connection varies significantly across age groups. Older Canadians (60+) are the most likely to feel a strong connection, with 76% affirming their deep bond to the country, reflecting a sense of legacy and established relationship with Canada’s social and cultural fabric. In contrast, younger Canadians, particularly those aged 30-44, report feeling less connected, with only 54% indicating a personal tie to the nation. This age group, often navigating career and family-building stages, may struggle to connect deeply amidst issues like housing affordability and economic mobility.

Despite this, the fact that only 11% of Canadians report feeling disconnected from their country is a positive sign. It indicates that the majority still hold a sense of belonging, even if that connection may fluctuate depending on personal circumstances.

Canadians don’t just feel connected to the idea of Canada. They widely value its public institutions – even debated ones like the Senate, CBC/Radio-Canada, or Supreme Court – for their role in shaping the country’s identity. Across three dimensions – how important they are to what makes Canada what it is, whether they foster a shared national connection, and the sense of loss their absence would create, these public institutions are broadly appreciated by Canadians at large.

Quality of Life and Happiness

When it comes to quality of life, 48% of Canadians rate their situation as positive, consistent with 2024 (49%). Young Canadians (18-29) report the highest quality of life (56%) and saw the largest year-over-year improvement, up from 49% in 2024. In contrast, older Canadians saw a decline, with only 51% rating their quality of life positively in 2025, down from 58% in 2024. This decline may stem from rising healthcare costs, pension concerns, and a shifting socio-political landscape.

Sense of Well-Being and Optimism

Many Canadians (47%) report a positive sense of well-being and happiness. Older Canadians (56%) are more likely to express a sense of contentment, likely due to the stability that often comes with later life, such as established careers and retirement. However, those aged 30-44 are the least likely to report happiness (39%), potentially reflecting the pressures of balancing career, family, and financial concerns.

The age shift in optimism is interesting. While 43% of Canadians are optimistic, younger Canadians (18-29) report the highest levels, with a 9-point increase from 2024, possibly reflecting a sense of empowerment despite economic challenges. In contrast, optimism has sharply declined among older Canadians, with only 44% expressing a positive outlook, down from 53% in 2024. This may be tied to concerns about the future of social programs and the geopolitical landscape.

The Upshot

As Canada Day approaches, a resilient sense of pride in the nation’s identity endures, even as Canadians confront a range of challenges, personally, nationally and globally. Most Canadians continue to express pride in their country, with the nation’s natural beauty, universal healthcare, and peaceful society remaining key sources of that pride. Despite differing perspectives on Canada’s future, these enduring values resonate deeply, reminding many of what makes the country a cherished place to call home.

However, this pride is tempered by ongoing economic struggles and concerns about the country’s direction, particularly for Canadians aged 30-44, who face issues like housing affordability, economic mobility, and work-life balance. This age group is particularly affected by the broader precarity mindset, marked by increasing uncertainty and a sense of vulnerability in both personal and national contexts. For many in this group, this mindset creates a tension between their pride in Canada’s values and growing anxiety about their future, leading to feelings of frustration and a diminished sense of optimism about the country’s progress.

While the metrics of national pride, connection, and optimism have remained largely unchanged over the past year, this stability in a time of uncertainty is, in itself, a positive outcome. Despite economic challenges and the shifting political landscape, Canadians’ core pride and optimism have remained resilient, suggesting that, even in turbulent times, there is a steady foundation of trust in the nation’s values and direction. As global perceptions of Canada improve, there is a growing recognition of the nation’s unique role on the world stage. The nation’s natural beauty, safety, and inclusive values continue to foster pride, while Canadians express a growing desire for tangible change and greater stability in response to the uncertainties that define the current moment.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 17 to 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

BlogHappinessPolls

Abacus Data Poll: 52% think the Carney government is off to a good start. 28% disagree.

From June 17 to 19, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. Note, this survey was almost entirely done after the G7 Summit in Alberta but before the House of Commons passed Bill C-5.

As summer begins, our latest political tracking survey offers a snapshot of a Canadian electorate that appears cautiously steady. The public remains largely supportive of the newly elected federal government, giving Prime Minister Mark Carney and his team the benefit of the doubt. That support has not yet translated into a decisive electoral advantage for the Liberals but neither has it opened the door for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. As expected, public opinion is similar to what it was at the end of the federal election in April.

The mood of the country remains one of modest optimism, at least domestically. This wave finds that 36% of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, a slight dip from last month but still a multi-year high. Views about the world (13%) and the United States (14%) remain strikingly pessimistic.

Approval of the federal government remains strong. Just over half of Canadians (52%) say they approve of the job the Carney-led government is doing, compared to 25% who disapprove. While this is a slight decline from our previous wave, the current approval rating is still historically strong and suggests this post-election “honeymoon period” is far from over.

Leadership Favourability

This stability is also reflected in views of Mark Carney himself. His personal favourability stands at +19, with 48% having a positive impression and 29% holding a negative one. That’s a three-point decline in positives and a two-point increase in negatives from the last survey, but the numbers remain well above where former Prime Minister Trudeau stood for most of his final years in office and in-line with Trudeau’s initial post-election period after the 2015 election.

For Pierre Poilievre, the data is more of a mixed bag. On the one hand, 41% view him positively and 41% negatively, leaving him with a net zero score. That’s significantly stronger than where his predecessors found themselves after an election loss. His accessible voter pool remains large and stable, with 53% of Canadians open to voting Conservative—identical to the size of the Liberal accessible pool. In other words, despite narratives painting him as politically wounded, our data suggests otherwise.

Carney Government: Is it off to a good start?

We also asked Canadians how they feel about the Carney government’s early performance. Over half (52%) say the government is off to a good start, compared to 28% who feel it’s off to a bad start. Majorities in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia share this positive sentiment. Notably, even 1 in 5 Conservative voters agree the new government is off to a good start, as do 90% of Liberal supporters.

Does Carney have a mandate to radically change Canada?

When asked whether the government has a mandate to radically change the country, public opinion is more divided. Just under one-third (30%) believe the federal election result gives Carney a mandate for transformative change, while 32% say it does not. The largest share (37%) are somewhere in the middle. Among Liberal voters, however, nearly half (46%) say Carney has a strong mandate to bring about fundamental change, while only 19% say he doesn’t.

Issues: Cost of living, Trump, the Economy, Healthcare, and Housing

Top issues remain consistent. Cost of living is still the number one issue by a wide margin (61%), followed by Donald Trump and his influence on Canada (39%), the economy (37%), healthcare (34%), and housing (34%). Immigration comes in sixth at 28%. Despite recent wildfires and extreme weather, only 14% of Canadians put climate change in their top three issues—unchanged from earlier this year.

When it comes to issue ownership, the landscape is split. The Conservatives lead by 9 points among those who rank cost of living as a top concern, by 4 points on housing, and by a massive 27-point margin on crime and public safety. They also hold a 7-point lead on the economy. The Liberals, meanwhile, lead by 6 on healthcare and dominate when it comes to managing Canada’s relationship with Donald Trump, with a 45-point lead among those who consider that a top issue. On climate change, the Liberals are narrowly ahead of the Greens by 5 points.

Vote Intention: Liberals ahead by 3

On the ballot question, the numbers remain unchanged from earlier in June. The Liberals continue to hold a narrow three-point lead nationally, with 42% of committed voters choosing them, 39% supporting the Conservatives, and the NDP stuck at 7%. The Bloc Quebecois sits at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.

Regionally, the Liberals lead in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta and hold a lead across the Prairies. Demographically, the Liberals are ahead among those over 44, while the Conservatives lead slightly among younger Canadians. Interestingly, the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives among men but have a six-point lead among women. They also maintain a substantial 20-point advantage among university graduates, while the Conservatives perform better among those with high school or college-level education.

Accessible Voter Pools

We also find that the Liberals and Conservatives have equal sized accessible voter pools – the proportion of Canadians open to voting for the parties suggesting both still have a large group of people open to the party. The accessible voter pool for the NDP is at a historic low – at least in the 15 years we have been tracking Canadian public opinion.

Beyond policy, the emotional register of the electorate is worth noting. There is no discernible spike in anxiety or outrage, no significant movement in the desire for change, and little to suggest that Canadians are regretting their decision in April’s election. The number who believe the Liberals deserve re-election is holding steady, and there’s been no erosion in their accessible voter pool.

Put differently: while public expectations remain high for the Carney government, Canadians are still willing to wait and see. The political mood is not euphoric, but it is forgiving.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As the Carney government passes the 100-day mark (since being sworn in on March 15), Canadians continue to express confidence in its direction and leadership. While there’s some softening in approval and favourability, the overall mood remains solidly positive. The government has not squandered its goodwill. In fact, more than half the country still believes it is off to a good start including one in five Conservative Party supporters.

The Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a tight race, with the Liberals benefiting from strong support among older and more educated Canadians. And despite speculation about Poilievre’s vulnerabilities, his support remains intact, with no signs of decline. In fact, we find that the size of the Liberal and Conservative accessible voter pools are the same.

On the issues, cost of living dominates as the central concern, followed closely by worries about Trump and the broader economic climate. This reinforces the Carney government’s focus on macroeconomic reform as a route to tangible, micro-level improvements in daily life.

But what’s striking is how little has changed. The electorate seems to be holding its breath, not yet demanding results, but closely watching how the government responds to their expectations. The summer ahead will be a critical test of whether that goodwill can be sustained, or whether a more demanding public mood will emerge as fall approaches.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 17 to 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Fixing the Macro to Solve the Micro: How to Bring the Public Along

One of the defining features of Canada’s new political era is the Carney government’s explicit attempt to connect economic growth with improvements to people’s everyday lives. In nearly every speech since becoming Prime Minister, Mark Carney has emphasized productivity, business investment, and competitiveness, not just as ends in themselves but as levers to improve affordability, living standards, and fairness.

This is what I call “fixing the macro to solve the micro.” It’s an ambitious attempt to reposition economic growth, not as abstract GDP math, but as a tangible tool to solve the affordability crisis, fund better public services, and make daily life feel less precarious.

I think it’s essential and something governments, policy makers, advocates, and business leaders don’t spend enough time focused on.

But will it work? Do Canadians see the same link?

To help answer that, we recently asked over 2,500 Canadians a series of questions testing how they perceive economic growth and whether they believe it can improve their lives. We wanted to go deeper than just headline sentiment. This research isn’t definitive, but it begins to build a map for how communicators, policymakers, and public affairs practioners can bring the public along with a pro-growth agenda.

The findings suggest both opportunities and red flags. They also highlight the importance of framing, trust, and emotional resonance in the way we talk about the economy.

Most Canadians want to believe in growth—if it helps them

Let’s start with a high-level finding that might surprise some: a strong majority of Canadians (61%) agree that if Canada improves its economic performance through productivity, GDP growth, or business investment their personal standard of living will also improve. Just 6% outright disagree.

This is a good place to start. It suggests that, in theory, most people don’t see growth as irrelevant or disconnected from their day-to-day lives. They’re open to the idea that stronger economic fundamentals can translate into tangible benefits. But this headline number conceals something more complicated and more cautionary.

Because while 61% agree, nearly 4 in 10 Canadians are either uncertain (26%) or outright skeptical (6% disagree). That means a significant portion of the population either doesn’t see the link between macroeconomic strength and personal well-being or doesn’t believe that link applies to them.

In other words, there is no consensus. Belief in growth as a rising tide that lifts all boats remains aspirational, not lived reality.

While 61% agree with the overall proposition, only 47% agree that when governments talk about growth, they believe it’s about things that will help them personally. That’s a 14-point drop.

Even more telling: 52% agree with the statement, “Even if the economy grows, I don’t trust that the benefits will reach people like me.” That’s the emotional core of the issue.

Growth, in theory, sounds good. But in practice, many feel it won’t reach them.

The trust gap: Growth is not seen as inclusive

The data reveals a trust gap a credibility deficit between what leaders say growth will do, and what people believe it will do.

Younger Canadians aged 18–29 are the most likely to agree (56%), while those over 60 are more skeptical, with only 44% agreeing and a combined 19% disagreeing. Regionally, optimism is strongest in Alberta (51%) and Quebec (54%), with Quebecers also registering among the lowest levels of outright disagreement (13% total). In contrast, Atlantic Canadians are more polarized—only 44% agree, and 27% disagree. British Columbians and those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba are the least likely to see themselves reflected in pro-growth government messaging, with just 44% and 34% agreeing, respectively. Notably, attitudes diverge dramatically based on how people feel about the country’s direction: 61% of those who think Canada is heading in the right direction trust that growth rhetoric is relevant to them, while just 39% of those who think the country is on the wrong track feel the same. This underscores that trust in government and overall national mood strongly influence whether Canadians see themselves in economic policy discussions.

 What drives skepticism?

For those who don’t think growth will help them personally, the reasons are telling. We followed up and asked them to explain why they don’t think growth helps them.

  • Fixed incomes and retirement – 17% say they don’t benefit from economic growth because they’re not in the labour market.
  • General pessimism and uncertainty – 12% feel the system is rigged or that future growth will just lead to more inequality.
  • Cost of living pressures – 12% say growth hasn’t led to affordability so far, so why would it now?
  • Distrust in government or economic policies – 6% say they don’t believe policymakers will implement growth strategies fairly.

Taken together, this paints a picture of a public that is not anti-growth but wary. Especially in a time of persistent precarity, Canadians need more than charts. They need proof.

Framing matters: Good things versus bad things

One of the most useful tools in the study was asking people whether they thought different economic outcomes would mean “good things” or “bad things” for them personally. It’s a simple but powerful way to surface emotional reactions and it reveals the deep psychology of economic narratives.

At the top of the list:

  • 66% say increasing productivity will mean good things for them.
  • 63% feel positively about expanding post-secondary programs for in-demand jobs.
  • 63% also view Buy Canadian policies as good for them personally.

These three top-scoring items have a few things in common: they feel pragmatic, tangible, and aligned with fairness or future opportunity.

But what about the rest?

Policies like restructuring the economy, increasing competitiveness, and building the strongest economy in the G7 also test well—but with slightly less intensity.

Then the story changes.

Support drops significantly when people are asked about:

  • Attracting more skilled immigrants (+11 net good),
  • Public-private partnerships (+21),
  • AI (a net -13, with 30% saying unleashing its potential would be bad for them personally).

For public-private partnerships, it’s not that people think they are bad for them, they just are not convinced they are good for them. There’s work to be done in explaining the approach and the benefits.

Overall, this tells us that even among self-described pro-growth Canadians, there are fault lines around automation, immigration, and privatization. These ideas may be essential for long-term growth, but they provoke anxiety especially when framed in ways that don’t emphasize fairness or control.

AI: The outlier with a warning label

No other economic topic we tested generated more resistance than artificial intelligence.

Only 17% think unleashing the full potential of AI will be good for them. 30% think it will be bad. 36% are neutral.

Opposition to AI cuts across age groups and political affiliations. Even among Liberal voters, the net score is barely positive. Among Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc voters, it’s net negative.

Why the worry?

It could be fear of job loss, automation anxiety, or a broader sense that AI will benefit a few and leave most behind. We have explored these themes in other research and consistently see them.

This should be a warning to anyone designing growth strategies reliant on AI productivity gains: unless you show how it helps ordinary people and mitigates harm you risk creating backlash, not buy-in.

What’s popular: Tangibility, national pride, and skills

If we step back and look at what tested best, there’s a clear pattern.

The most popular growth-related policies share at least two of these three traits:

They feel directly tied to work or opportunity.

  • Training for high-demand jobs scored +60 net good.
  • Productivity improvements were +63.
  • Infrastructure investments scored +47.

They reflect a national mission or shared benefit.

  • Buy Canadian policies: +57.
  • Building the strongest economy in the G7: +49.

They are framed as fixing something broken or helping Canada compete.

  • Restructuring the economy (+48) and increasing competitiveness (+49) score high—perhaps because they imply a problem is being addressed.

    “The Strongest Economy in the G7”

    “Building the strongest economy in the G7” was a core promise of Mark Carney’s campaign and remains the guiding ambition of his new government. It’s a phrase that signals confidence, global competitiveness, and national pride and the data suggest it largely resonates with Canadians.

    Over half (53%) believe achieving that goal would mean good things for them personally, while just 4% say it would mean bad things. That framing works because it’s both aspirational and concrete—it links Canada’s economic status to a personal sense of gain without needing to spell out every policy detail.

    But 43% are left uncertain about the impact. And support isn’t uniform. Men (60%) are more likely than women (46%) to see it as positive, and support is strongest among those 60 and over (65%) compared to just 42% among those aged 30 to 44. Regionally, Alberta (63%) and B.C. (61%) are most optimistic, while Quebecers are more ambivalent—only 47% think building the strongest G7 economy will help them, with a notable 33% choosing “neutral” and 7% saying it would be bad. Politically, Liberal voters (62%) and New Democrats (58%) are most likely to see this as a good thing, but only 42% of Bloc voters feel the same. In Quebec, in particular, the ambition may not connect as directly to people’s local economic priorities or identity. So, while the G7 framing works well as a national economic narrative, it’s clear that additional work, especially in places like Quebec and among younger voters, is needed to explain how that status translates into meaningful improvements in people’s lives.

    These nuances underline the need for differentiated messaging. While a national vision—like building the strongest economy in the G7—can be powerful, it must be supported by regionally relevant narratives and locally credible messengers. If growth is to become a unifying national mission, people need to see how it aligns with their values, responds to their local context, and meets their individual needs.

    So, what does this mean?

    This research offers three big insights for those trying to shape the national economic conversation, influence public policy, and design and execute it.

    1. Link growth to people’s daily lives and prove it

    Talking about GDP or competitiveness isn’t enough. Canadians want to see how those ideas translate into wages, housing, healthcare, and job security. They are open to growth but not abstract growth.

    If you’re building a pro-growth campaign, start with the tangible. Explain how boosting productivity or attracting investment leads to better schools, lower grocery prices, or more doctors in rural communities.

    2. Address the trust deficit head-on

    People need to believe that growth will be fair. That it won’t just benefit the rich. That it won’t leave rural communities, younger workers, or vulnerable sectors behind.

    Policy and communications must come with safeguards, guarantees, and real-world examples. This is especially true for areas like AI and immigration, where skepticism is high.

    3. Frame ideas in ways that resonate emotionally

    “Unleashing the full potential of AI” may sound visionary in a budget speech. But to many Canadians, it feels like losing their job to a robot. Try “harnessing AI to improve healthcare access” or “using AI to reduce wait times.”

    Similarly, “making Canada more competitive” works best when paired with fairness, not just profit. “Fair competition that helps small businesses thrive” lands better than “cutting red tape.”

    Final Thoughts: Start the conversation now

    We’re in a moment of political and economic transition. The public wants change but they also want clarity, reassurance, and inclusion.

    This polling isn’t a verdict. It’s a starting point. It shows that Canadians are not reflexively anti-growth. But they are cautious. They want to know: will this help me? Will it make my life easier? Can I trust you to deliver?

    The challenge and opportunity is to build a new pro-growth coalition, one built on trust, inclusion, and lived impact.

    The Carney government is betting that macro solutions can solve micro problems. But to make that case stick, they and all of us involved in shaping economic discourse must connect the dots between the abstract and the immediate, between national ambition and personal impact.

    If you’re interested in a deeper look at this data, please reach out to schedule a conversation with a senior researcher on our team.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 2,585 Canadians from June 2 to 5, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.92%, 19 times out of 20.

    The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    Canadian PoliticsConsumer BehaviourPolitics

    The Changing Landscape of Grocery Shopping in Canada

    Between April 16 and 21, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,920 Canadian adults (18+) to explore how rising costs, international trade tensions, and broader economic concerns are shaping grocery shopping behaviors. Grocery shopping in Canada has shifted from a routine task to a delicate balancing act. Canadians are now more focused on stretching their dollars and making strategic purchasing decisions, driven by the uncertainties of inflation, international trade tensions, and the rising cost of living. This shift reflects a broader societal trend: the rise of the precarity mindset. More than just reacting to short-term pressures, this mindset signals long-term changes in how Canadians think about money, consumption, and their financial security.

    International Trade Tensions and the Growing Concern Over Grocery Prices

    A major factor driving the shift toward cautious spending is concern over international trade tensions, particularly with the U.S. 70% of Canadians are worried that these tensions, such as U.S. tariffs, will cause further increases in grocery prices over the next six months. This reflects a broader sense of financial insecurity that many Canadians are grappling with, as they face growing uncertainty about their ability to manage future expenses.

    In line with these concerns, 61% of Canadians lack confidence in their ability to afford groceries six months from now. This uncertainty is especially pronounced among those with household incomes under $50,000, with 73% of this group worried they won’t be able to afford the groceries they need if prices continue to rise. This highlights the growing financial strain felt by many, especially lower-income Canadians, underscoring the need for strategies that address both rising costs and the uncertainty surrounding future affordability.

    Cautious Consumption and Strategic Shopping

    As the cost of living continues to impact the lives of Canadians, many are adopting more cautious consumption habits, driven by the precarity mindset. 83% of Canadians are now more careful about what they buy, reflecting a growing sense of uncertainty about the future. 81% of consumers are planning their meals around sales and discounts, while 76% are avoiding premium or non-essential items, even if they once enjoyed them.

    In terms of priorities, Canadians are increasingly focused on essentials. 56% are now primarily concerned with getting the most value for their money, a shift that has led many to forgo luxury items. For example, 35% have stopped purchasing “nice-to-have” items, instead focusing on affordable, value-driven products.

    Income plays a significant role in how Canadians are adjusting their shopping behaviors. Those with household incomes under $50,000 are particularly vulnerable to rising food costs, with 59% focused on maximizing value with every purchase. These households are more likely to stop buying non-essential items (44%) and prioritize affordability, choosing products that fill them up (41%).

    Mindful and Strategic Choices

    The shift toward cautious consumption is not just about cutting back—it’s about becoming more strategic and disciplined in how Canadians approach food shopping. 32% of Canadians are now making more methodical, strategic decisions when it comes to food purchases, with 33% aligning their shopping habits with what truly matters to them. However, income plays a significant role in how this shift manifests.

    Those with a household income less than $50,000 are more focused on just getting through the week, with 26% trying to make it to the next payday and 24% prioritizing affordability over preferences. In contrast, those with a household income of $100,000 or more are more likely to make mindful choices that reflect their values (38%) and become more strategic in their food purchases (36%). This income-driven split shows how cautious consumption varies based on financial reality.

    As a result, many consumers are leaning more toward store brands and discount products. 42% of Canadians are now purchasing more store-brand or discount items, and 39% are using coupons, flyers, or loyalty points to stretch their grocery budgets further. In fact, 36% have even switched to more affordable grocery stores in response to rising prices. This shift also extends to cutting back on non-essential items, with 43% reducing their purchases of snacks and treats, 37% cutting down on convenience foods, and 34% forgoing premium items altogether.

    The Long-Term Shift in Consumer Mindsets

    While some Canadians may view these changes as short-term responses to current economic conditions, there is growing evidence that these shifts represent a long-term change in consumer behavior. 34% of Canadians believe their cautious spending is a mix of short-term responses and longer-term shifts in how they approach money and consumption. Interestingly, 23% of Canadians think their habits will persist even if prices decrease, signaling that the impact of the precarity mindset will likely endure.

    If grocery budgets were to loosen, 37% of Canadians would still shop carefully, demonstrating that their cautious, value-driven approach to shopping is likely to remain. Even if financial constraints ease, many Canadians have become so accustomed to their new frugality that they would continue to prioritize strategic choices based on what matters most to them, whether that’s healthier food options or lower-priced essentials.

    The Upshot

    The shift toward cautious consumption, driven by the precarity mindset, presents both challenges and opportunities for grocers and brands. As Canadians become more strategic and mindful in their shopping habits, they are increasingly focused on balancing value, quality, and affordability. This shift reflects a broader change in consumer priorities, one that values long-term sustainability and financial security over immediate gratification.

    For grocers and brands, this means moving beyond traditional discounting strategies and instead emphasizing value-driven offerings. Consumers are looking for products that deliver more than just a low price, they want transparency in pricing, consistent quality, and products that align with their evolving needs. Grocers that can offer high-quality store brands and affordable options will be better positioned to build long-term trust and customer loyalty.

    Moreover, the precarity mindset is not a temporary reaction but a profound shift in how consumers approach spending. Even as financial pressures ease, many Canadians are likely to retain their focus on mindful, strategic shopping. For brands, this means the traditional models of marketing based solely on discounts or premium products may no longer suffice. Brands will need to demonstrate how they add value beyond just the price tag, whether through product durability, ethical or local sourcing, or added benefits that justify their price.

    Ultimately, grocers and brands that understand and adapt to this evolving consumer mindset will be better equipped to thrive in a landscape defined by caution, conscious consumption, and long-term value. By staying attuned to the changing needs of the consumer, the grocery sector can build stronger, longer-lasting relationships with Canadians in an era of economic uncertainty.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 1,920 Canadian adults from April 16 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24%, 19 times out of 20.

    The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    About Abacus Data

    We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

    We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

    Contact us with any questions

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.  found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    BlogConsumer BehaviourPolls

    Abacus Data Nova Scotia Poll: Tim Houston’s PCs Hold Commanding Lead as Opposition Remains Divided

    We are back with new political numbers from Nova Scotia.

    Our latest Nova Scotia omnibus survey, conducted from May 23 to 29, 2025 with 800 adults, finds Premier Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives holding a commanding lead over their political rivals, one month after the federal election and six months after winning a “supermajority” in the 2024 provincial election.

    Houston’s PCs continue to dominate Nova Scotia’s political landscape and benefit from a divided opposition.

    PC SUPPORT HOLDING STEADY AT 55%

    Among decided voters in Nova Scotia, 55% say they would vote for Houston’s PCs if a provincial election were held today. This is virtually unchanged from March (down 1 point), and it is 2 points higher than the party’s performance in last provincial election (53%).

    This puts the PCs more than 30 points ahead of the second-place NDP and reflects continued public approval of the government’s direction on key files such as defending Nova Scotia’s interests in the US trade war, fixing healthcare, and advancing their (big) energy and natural resources agenda.

    OPPOSITION VOTE REMAINS FRAGMENTED

    Claudia Chender’s NDP now sits at 22%, down four points since March and back to the level of support it received in the 2024 election (also 22%). While the NDP remains the clear second-place party, its recent dip in support has opened a little bit of space for others to gain ground.

    The Nova Scotia Liberals, now led by Derek Mombourquette, are up slightly to 15%, showing a modest rebound after their post-election low of 13% in our March survey. The Greens and other parties also see small increases, with the Greens now at 2% and other parties collectively at 5%.

    With no single opposition party gaining significant momentum, the anti-PC vote remains too fractured to pose a serious challenge to Houston’s government.

    REGIONAL & DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWNS

    Houston’s PCs continue to lead in every region of the province and by large margins.

    • Mainland Nova Scotia: PCs at 62%, Liberals at 15%, NDP at 11% — a 47-point PC lead.
    • Cape Breton: PCs at 59%, NDP at 21%, Liberals at 17% — a 38-point PC lead.
    • Halifax Municipality: PCs at 49%, NDP at 31%, Liberals at 14% — an 18-point PC lead.

    The PCs also maintain strong support across all age groups, with the widest gap being among older Nova Scotians:

    • 45 and older: 64% support the PCs.
    • Under 45: 43% support the PCs — still a strong showing, in spite of being 21 points lower than it is among older Nova Scotians.

    Notably, the Liberals have seen a significant recovery among younger voters, climbing 15 points since March in the under-45 age category (from 7% to 22%). This puts the Liberals in a tie-for- second with the NDP among younger Nova Scotians.

    The PCs also lead among men and women. Currently, 59% of women and 51% of men say they would vote PC.

    IS THERE A CARNEY EFFECT?

    With Mark Carney now serving as Prime Minister, some have wondered if his personal popularity might lift the provincial Liberal brand in Nova Scotia. While it’s too soon to draw definitive conclusions, the Liberals’ modest two-point gain since March could be an early indicator.

    Still, the Nova Scotia Liberals remain well below their 2024 provincial election result (23%), and the path back to competitiveness will require more than riding federal coattails. The upcoming leadership race may offer the Liberals a chance to regain ground if they can attract the right leader and build momentum.

    THE UPSHOT

    Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives remain the dominant political force in Nova Scotia. With 55% of the decided voters and double-digit leads across all regions and age groups, the PCs would win another “supermajority” if a provincial election was held today.

    Claudia Chender’s NDP continues to hold the Official Opposition spot, but their support has slipped slightly since March. While Chender’s party remains strong in Halifax, they need to make in-roads in other parts of the province to be more competitive overall.

    For their part, the Liberals have shown a small but notable improvement in recent months, particularly among younger voters. Whether this signals the start of a broader recovery remains to be seen, but any rebound will depend on their ability to reconnect with voters and not just hope that the Prime Minister’s political magic will rub off on them too.

    With the opposition divided, and no single party consolidating the non-PC vote, the Houston government has the time, space, and political capital to do big things with their second mandate. The challenge before them now is to deliver the significant change and economic activity that the Premier and his Ministers have been promising, keeping the public well-informed and engaged along the way.      

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 800 adults living in Nova Scotia from May 23 to 29, 2025.

    A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.47%, 19 times out of 20.

    The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    Provincial Politics

    Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford Government Approval Hits New High; PCs lead by 21

    In our first survey of Ontario public opinion since the February provincial election, we find Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives in an enviable position. With a solid majority under their belt, a largely disinterested opposition, and a public more preoccupied with economic uncertainty and global affairs than provincial scandal or friction, the Ford government is benefiting from both competence perceptions and a remarkably quiet political environment.

    The numbers speak for themselves. If an election were held today, 49 percent of committed voters in Ontario say they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, up four points since the last survey we conducted just before the election in February. The Ontario Liberals sit at 28 percent, down slightly by one point, while the NDP has fallen to 14 percent, a two-point drop. The Greens hold steady at 5 percent, and other parties account for 4 percent.

    These are not small margins. A 21-point lead over the second-place Liberals is rare in any political context. But for a third-term government battling economic insecurity, it is even more remarkable.

    Ford’s Approval Hits a High

    When we look beyond vote intention to overall job approval, the results are equally impressive. Today, 44 percent of Ontarians approve of the job Ford and his government are doing, up two points since our January tracking and the highest we have measured since August 2023. Disapproval stands at 31 percent, down three points from earlier this year.

    The trend line tells the story. Since late 2023, Ford’s approval numbers have steadily improved. After dipping in the fall, evaluations of the Premier and his government began to recover just ahead of the February election. Since then, they have continued to climb. What we are seeing now is the best standing for the Ford government in nearly two years (and likely since it was elected in 2018).

    The Coalition Behind the Lead

    The PC advantage is broad and deep. They lead across all regions of the province. In the GTHA, where elections are won and lost, the PCs are at 50 percent, with the Liberals at 31 and the NDP at 12. In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs dominate with 59 percent of the vote compared to 20 percent for the Liberals and 11 percent for the NDP. In Eastern Ontario, the PCs are at 50 percent, with the Liberals at 27.

    Demographically, the PCs lead among men and women, with a particularly strong lead among those aged 45 to 59, where they command 60 percent of the vote. Among voters over 60, they still lead comfortably, while among younger voters aged 18 to 29, the race is tighter: the PCs sit at 42 percent, with the Liberals at 33 and the Greens at 9.

    This suggests a strong generational dimension to Ford’s support: older Ontarians, likely more focused on economic and geopolitical stability, are sticking with the government. Younger Ontarians, while less hostile to Ford than in the past, are more fragmented in their preferences.

    Ford’s Personal Brand Is Firming Up

    Doug Ford’s personal ratings are also improving. Today, 44 percent of Ontarians say they have a positive impression of the Premier, while 33 percent view him negatively, giving him a net impression of +11—the highest of any provincial party leader.

    By comparison, Bonnie Crombie’s net impression is -2, with 31 percent positive and 33 percent negative. Marit Stiles sits at +3, but a large share of Ontarians say they don’t know enough about her to say. Mike Schreiner of the Greens has a similar profile: mildly positive impressions, but low visibility.

    This makes Ford, by far, the most defined political brand in the province. Ontarians know who he is, and right now, a plurality like what they see.

    National Presence, Local Benefit

    Some of this goodwill may also stem from how Premier Ford has handled himself on the national stage. In a time when the country is looking for stability, Ford has played a constructive role—forming pragmatic alliances with other premiers, supporting the new federal government’s efforts to strengthen the economy, and positioning Ontario as a leading voice in confederation. For many voters, he appears less partisan, more collaborative, and focused on results. That kind of leadership stands out in today’s political environment, and it is likely adding to his personal appeal and the PC Party’s strength in the province.

    What’s Driving This?

    Several factors are likely contributing to this political environment.

    First, the opposition is divided, uncoordinated, and lower profile. Bonnie Crombie is still defining herself. Marit Stiles remains largely unknown outside of NDP circles. And Mike Schreiner, while respected, has a narrow base. The result is a field of challengers who, individually and collectively, are not posing a serious threat.

    Second, many Ontarians are not focused on Queen’s Park right now. They are worried about inflation, affordability, housing, and increasingly, what Trump’s policies could mean for Canada. In that context, the Ford government appears stable, calm, and focused. There is little political drama, few controversies, and no looming crisis. Even some of the friction created by Bill 5 doesn’t seem to have made much impact.

    Third, the relationship between federal and provincial politics remains significant. While this survey did not include questions about the federal government specific to Ontario, the Ford government may be benefiting from the increasing popularity of the Carney government – especially as they continue to work together on several fronts.

    The Upshot

    Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs are in a commanding position. With 49 percent of the vote and the highest approval rating in nearly two years, the government remains in a very strong position, a months after its re-election.

    The Premier’s personal brand is firming up. The opposition is stalled. And the public mood is oriented more towards macroeconomic and international concerns than provincial partisanship. That is a recipe for stability, and for now, a government that appears more popular than ever.

    Whether this holds depends on what happens next. The economy is still fragile. The housing crisis remains unresolved. And Trump could introduce new anxieties that ripple across all levels of Canadian politics. But for now, the Ford government has time, space, and public goodwill. In politics, that is a rare combination, and one the Premier will no doubt seek to maintain and leverage to push his agenda forward.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from June 2 to 5, 2025.

    A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

    The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics