Canadians evenly split on whether retaliation is best way to fight Trump, says poll
Conservative voters more likely to favour persuading Trump, while Atlantic Canadians in survey take hardest line
Trade Tensions with the U.S. Deepen Housing Anxiety in Canada
Between April 7 and 10, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,800 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking to understand how the how Canada-U.S. relations are impacting the state of housing in Canada. While housing affordability and availability remain top concerns, this wave of research explores how rising trade tensions with the U.S. are now seen as a direct threat to housing security – particularly among those facing high levels of precarity. As global instability grows, Canadians are increasingly viewing housing not just as a domestic issue, but as a key test of leadership and economic resilience.
Housing Affordability Is a Key Ballot Box Issue for Young Canadians and Renters
When asked to identify the top two issues that will most influence their vote in the next federal election, 20% of Canadians point to making housing more affordable, highlighting its importance as a ballot box issue. While ranking third behind cost of living (45%) and dealing with Donald Trump (33%), housing becomes significantly more salient among key voting demographics. For younger Canadians aged 18 to 29, as well as renters, housing affordability plays a much larger role – 30% in both groups identify it as one of the most important factors shaping their vote.
This reinforces that housing affordability, availability, and access remain critical issues – especially for those under the most financial strain. But as trade tensions and tariffs with the U.S. intensify, new pressures are compounding the crisis. These external factors threaten to drive housing concerns and costs even higher and must now be factored into any serious response. Addressing housing can no longer focus solely on domestic supply – it also requires a strategy that accounts for growing global economic instability.
Fear of Homelessness Emerges Amid Economic Fallout
Concerns about the broader economic fallout from the trade war with the U.S. are translating into real fears about housing security for many Canadians. More than half of Canadians (53%) express concern that the economic impacts of the trade war – including rising prices and a potential slowdown – could put them at risk of losing their home or even becoming homeless.
This fear is strongest among younger Canadians (73% of those 18–29), renters (62%), and those with high (63%) or extreme (79%) levels of precarity.
This highlights the emotional toll of economic instability: those already feeling vulnerable are most likely to fear being pushed to the brink by forces beyond their control. It’s a clear warning that growing uncertainty is making even basic housing feel out of reach for many Canadians and that international tensions are not just geopolitical – they’re hitting home in the most literal sense.
Rising Trade Tensions Fuel Housing Insecurity
As Canada navigates a trade dispute with the United States, the fallout is being felt far beyond the economy. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Canadians say they are worried that rising tariffs and a worsening trade war could affect their ability to afford their mortgage or rent over the next year. These concerns are particularly acute among young Canadians aged 18–29 (80%) and renters (73%), who are more vulnerable to housing instability.
Among Canadians who are worried about losing their home or becoming homeless, 77% also express concern about their ability to afford their mortgage or rent over the next year. In contrast, only 13% of those who aren’t worried about losing their home share that concern.
The findings also show a clear connection between these worries and an individual’s emotional and financial outlook. Among those experiencing high (72%) or extreme (88%) levels of precarity – defined as heightened anxiety and uncertainty about the future – concern is sharply elevated.
As economic uncertainty grows, more Canadians – especially those already at risk – are beginning to see international trade tensions not as distant policy issues, but as direct threats to their ability to pay for housing.
Housing Construction Costs Under Threat
Beyond personal affordability, there is also growing concern that trade tensions could further worsen Canada’s housing supply crisis. A strong majority (78%) of Canadians are worried that ongoing tariffs and international trade disputes will drive up the cost of building homes. This fear is near-universal among those with extreme (94%) and high (83%) precarity scores, and more pronounced among Liberal supporters (83%) than among Conservatives (73%).
This data reinforces that, perceptions of global economic instability – and Canada’s relationship with the U.S. in particular – are being filtered through the lens of housing concerns, especially for those already experiencing vulnerability in their day-to-day lives.
The Upshot
Housing has emerged as one of the most pressing concerns for Canadians over the last 2 years – driven by rising prices, limited supply, and growing inequality. But as trade tensions with the U.S. escalate, that crisis is no longer seen as just a matter of affordability or domestic policy. For many, it represents something much deeper: a symbol of personal security in an unstable world.
Canadians – especially younger people, renters, and those already feeling stretched – are viewing international instability through the lens of precarity. They’re not just worried about tariffs or economic headlines; they’re worried about their ability to stay housed, to plan for the future, and to feel secure in their day-to-day lives. For those already living with heightened anxiety and uncertainty, global economic shocks aren’t abstract – they’re deeply personal.
This shift reveals a rising public demand: Canadians expect leaders to address not only the structural drivers of the housing crisis, but also the emotional toll it’s taking. People want more than promises – they want reassurance that their ability to purchase a home and keep a roof over their heads won’t be threatened by global instability or government inaction. In this moment, bold action on housing isn’t just good policy – it’s a test of leadership, trust, and urgency.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 Canadian adults from April 7 to 10, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
About Abacus Data
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. : https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
Disadvantage Conservative: What advanced modelling tells us about why the Conservatives are trailing the Liberals.
Two weeks out from election day, the story many expected to be writing by now—about Pierre Poilievre’s march to victory—hasn’t materialized. Despite years of strong polling, a Prime Minister with record-low approval, and a party machine firing on all cylinders, the Conservative Party now finds itself trailing the Liberals in every major publicly released poll, including ours, where the gap is now at four points.
So what happened?
To understand why Poilievre is falling short, we used a binary logistic regression model to dig beneath surface-level polling. Unlike a simple crosstab or approval rating, a logistic regression model allows us to pinpoint which factors actually predict someone’s likelihood of voting Conservative. It answers the question: if we know someone’s views on certain issues or leaders, how much does that increase or decrease the chance they’ll choose the Conservative Party on election day?
This method gives us a clear look at which levers Poilievre has successfully pulled—and which remain stuck.
A Party Built Around a Person
The first and most powerful predictor of a Conservative vote is a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre. When voters like him, they’re likely to support the party. That sounds obvious, but it’s more consequential than it seems. In a political landscape increasingly driven by leader brands rather than party brands, Poilievre is the Conservative message. He’s not just the face of the campaign—he is the campaign.
And the data shows that for many, that works. Poilievre is seen by a significant portion of voters as best suited to manage the economy, deal with tough international actors like Donald Trump, and—perhaps most importantly—keep Canada united. Those are powerful signals of competence and strength. Among those who see him that way, support for the Conservatives is solid.
But that’s also the trap.
Strength Without Scale
Poilievre’s support base is motivated, aligned, and deeply loyal. But it’s not expanding. That’s because the coalition he has built doesn’t yet reach far enough into the electorate’s middle—the soft voters still up for grabs, the ones who will decide this election.
The data makes this clear. While Poilievre scores well on economic credibility and leadership toughness, those signals aren’t being reinforced by a broader sense of relatability or optimism. Voters aren’t rejecting him in huge numbers, but many remain unconvinced he’s for them. They don’t dislike the pitch—they just don’t see it as theirs.
In fact, several of the variables we tested—like whether voters think Poilievre is best at reducing the cost of living or fixing housing—didn’t significantly predict Conservative support once we accounted for other factors. This suggests that voters may agree with Poilievre on the problems, but they’re not yet sold that he’s the one who can deliver. Think about that – whether or not you think Poilievre is best at reducing the cost of living is not a predictor of support for the Conservatives. That just reinforces how much the focus of this campaign changed and the Conservative Party’s inability to make it about affordability or change.
The Desire for Change Is Not High or Wide Enough
Speaking about change, the 2025 campaign was supposed to be all about it. After a decade of Liberal government, a stagnant standard of living, and growing affordability anxiety, the Conservatives banked on a public thirst for something new. And for many voters, that thirst exists.
But not for everyone. In fact, one of the strongest negative predictors of a Conservative vote in our model is a lack of urgency for change. If a voter doesn’t believe it’s definitely time for a new government, they are much less likely to choose the Conservatives.
And here’s where it gets interesting: enough voters still feel that things aren’t that bad, or that Carney represents a different kind of Liberal leadership, that they’re willing to give the party another chance. The public’s desire for change exists—but it’s no longer deep or broad enough to create a wave. And without that wave, Poilievre’s path to a majority government.
What Doesn’t Move the Dial
One of the striking findings from the model is how little traditional demographic variables matter right now. Gender, age, a sense of precarity, and even university education don’t significantly predict Conservative support. This suggests that Poilievre’s coalition isn’t being driven by identity politics or deep economic divides. Instead, it’s shaped by beliefs—especially about leadership, competence, and the need for change.
It’s Not You, It’s Me.
It’s also worth noting that a negative impression of Mark Carney doesn’t significantly increase Conservative support. This is not shaping up to be a “stop the Liberals” campaign the way 2011 was about stopping the NDP or 2019 may have been partly about stopping Trudeau. The Conservative vote right now is affirmatively pro-Poilievre—but it’s not yet compelling enough for those who remain unsure.
So What Does This All Mean?
With two weeks left, the Conservatives are facing a paradox. They have the most unified base, the clearest message on affordable, and a leader whose brand is resonating with a big slice of the electorate. But they haven’t built a coalition wide enough to win.
To change that, the party will need to do more than hammer the Liberals or repeat its “common sense” mantra. It will need to reach voters who agree with Poilievre on the problems but doubt he understands them personally or has the competence or experience to solve them – relative to Mark Carney. The data suggests these voters are movable—but only with the right appeal.
That might mean softening the message, highlighting compassion as much as strength, and showing that the party has a plan for people’s lives, not just the balance sheet. It could mean showing a more human, less combative side of the Conservative leader—especially in battleground ridings where the race is tightest. It’s debate week – if not this week – when?
Poilievre doesn’t need to abandon his base to win. But he does need to grow it. And the clock is ticking.
The data tells us the story: the Poilievre brand is working—but only for some. To win, he needs more than confidence. He needs connection.
The Model at Work
Here’s how the model plays out in practice, using five different voter profiles to show how different combinations of beliefs affect the probability of voting Conservative.
The most likely Conservative voter, unsurprisingly, is someone who holds all the right perceptions: they like Poilievre, dislike Carney, think Poilievre is best on both the economy and Trump, and firmly believe it’s time for a change. For this ideal scenario, the probability of voting Conservative hits 96%. But remove just one variable—the belief that it’s definitely time for a change—and the probability drops to 86%. That 10-point swing underscores how critical the “change” narrative is to the Conservative campaign’s success. Without that motivation, even Poilievre’s personal brand and economic message can’t fully close the deal.
Things shift even more when we test more limited belief sets. If a voter believes Poilievre is best on the economy, but doesn’t like him personally, doesn’t dislike Carney, and isn’t aligned on other leadership traits, the probability drops to 58%. That’s still a decent chance, but it’s clear the economic argument alone isn’t sufficient to drive the vote—it needs to be paired with a deeper personal or emotional connection.
Perhaps most instructive is what happens when someone has a positive view of Poilievre but doesn’t think it’s time for a change. In that case, the odds of voting Conservative drop to just 24%. And among those who hold none of the key perceptions—no positive view of Poilievre, no preference for him on Trump or the economy, and no sense of urgency for change—the probability of voting Conservative plummets to 8%. These scenarios reveal the limits of the Conservative coalition and reinforce a central insight from the model: Poilievre’s support is strong, but not yet broad. Without a deeper sense of urgency for change across the electorate, the party will struggle to build the winning coalition it needs.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,900 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 3 to 8, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
Binary Logistic Regression
To identify the key predictors of support for the Liberal Party under Mark Carney’s leadership, we used a binary logistic regression model. This statistical technique estimates the likelihood that a respondent chooses a particular outcome—in this case, voting Liberal—based on a set of independent variables.
Unlike linear regression, which predicts a continuous outcome, logistic regression is used when the dependent variable is binary (e.g., support vs. no support). The model calculates the probability that an individual will vote Liberal, based on factors such as personal impressions of the leaders, issue priorities, demographic characteristics, and views on the state of the country.
The coefficients from the model represent the change in the log-odds of voting Liberal associated with each predictor, holding all other variables constant. A positive coefficient indicates an increased likelihood of voting Liberal, while a negative coefficient suggests a decreased likelihood.
This method allows us to isolate the individual impact of each factor and identify which attributes are most strongly associated with support for the Liberals—offering a more precise understanding of what’s driving voter behaviour in the current election context.
While traditional R-squared (as used in linear regression) doesn’t directly apply to logistic regression, we use pseudo R-squared measures to assess model fit.
- Nagelkerke’s R-squared (0.7078) is an adjusted version of the Cox & Snell R-squared, scaled to range between 0 and 1. It suggests that the model explains approximately 71% of the variation in vote intention—indicating strong explanatory power for a social science model.
- McFadden’s rho-squared (0.7001) is another commonly used pseudo R-squared that compares the fit of the full model against a null (intercept-only) model. Values above 0.4 are typically considered indicative of a very good model fit.
Both values suggest this logistic model provides a robust and meaningful explanation for what drives someone to vote Liberal in this election scenario.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data Poll: Liberal lead down to 2
With less than two weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls on April 28, our most recent Abacus Data survey (conducted on April 14 and 15) provides an updated snapshot of the race as party leaders prepare for two pivotal debates: the French-language Leaders’ Debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow. This smaller sample, quick turnaround poll serves as a benchmark before these highly anticipated events, and we plan to conduct another survey over the upcoming long weekend to assess any post-debate shifts after voters have had a chance to watch the debates and discuss their impressions with friends and family over the holiday.
Overall, the data suggest that the Liberal lead has narrowed to just two points nationally (40% Liberal vs. 38% Conservative), down from a six-point advantage two weeks ago.
Moreover, among those who are most certain to vote, the Conservatives now post a slight numerical lead, underscoring a possible turnout advantage for Pierre Poilievre’s supporters if current enthusiasm levels hold. Despite these signs of a tightening race, regional patterns and other important metrics—such as perceptions of leadership and the sense of overall campaign momentum—still tilt in favour of Mark Carney and the Liberals. Below, we break down the key findings, the factors that may be causing the narrowing Liberal lead, and what to watch for heading into two crucial debate nights.
National and Regional Vote Intention
Nationally, the Liberals sit at 40% among all decided voters, with the Conservatives at 38%. The NDP remains in third place at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois has inched up to 7% nationally.
While the two-point Liberal lead is within the margin of error, it represents a clear tightening from the six-point advantage recorded earlier in April.
Crucially, when we look at voters most certain to cast a ballot—an indicator that can better approximate actual turnout—the Conservatives (40%) edge the Liberals (39%), with the NDP at 12%. This shift suggests that Conservative supporters, at least for now, may be more slightly more mobilized, introducing a scenario where enthusiasm could give the Conservatives a slight turnout edge if nothing changes.
Despite the overall narrowing, the regional picture still shows areas of Liberal strength:
British Columbia: The Liberals and Conservatives are effectively tied (39% vs. 39%), with the NDP at 16%.
Ontario: The Liberals lead the Conservatives by seven points (47% vs. 40%), marking a continuation of the Liberal advantage in Canada’s largest province—though that gap has tightened from double-digit leads in earlier polls.
Quebec: Here, the Liberals stand at 36%, compared to the Bloc’s 36% and the Conservatives’ 19%. Given the Bloc’s strong base in Quebec, the Liberals’ tie here is a favourable outcome for them, especially since Carney’s personal popularity in Quebec continues to outpace his rivals.
It’s worth reiterating that, because this poll was fielded among a smaller sample, the margins of error across subgroups—particularly at the regional level—are larger than usual. While the overall tightening is evident, specific regional shifts should be interpreted with caution.
Desire for Change Resurges
One of the most striking shifts in this poll is the upswing in the desire for change—a measure that had dipped in our previous waves but is now back in line with levels seen at the start of the campaign. Fully 56% of Canadians say it’s “definitely time for a change in government,” up from 51% just one week ago. Meanwhile, the share who strongly want the Liberals re-elected has dropped to 21% (down from 24%).
Among those who are firmly in the “time for a change” camp, 59% say they will vote Conservative, 15% are opting for the Liberals, and 13% for the NDP.
Leader Impressions: Carney Still on Top, But Slight Dip
Liberal Leader Mark Carney remains the most well-regarded major federal leader, with 45% of respondents viewing him positively versus 32% negatively, yielding a net favourability of +13. However, this represents a four-point drop in net score compared to the +20 he enjoyed in our previous survey, due to a slight reduction in his positive ratings (down 3) and an uptick in his negatives (up 4).
By contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre sees his negative impressions decline somewhat (43% negative), while 40% hold a positive impression, producing a net score of –3—a modest improvement for Poilievre.
On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney leads Poilievre by six points (40% vs. 34%)—a gap that’s narrowed from nine points last week. The margin is especially large in Quebec, where Carney’s personal brand has given him a 24-point advantage over Poilievre, and in Ontario, where Carney leads by nine.
Changing Salience of Key Issues: Trump Slides, Cost of Living Climbs
Over the past several weeks, Donald Trump’s role as a major campaign issue in Canada has been prominent, with discussions of cross-border trade tensions and “Liberation Day” pronouncements from the White House. Yet this poll finds that the salience of dealing with Trump is down three points (to 33%) as a top-two issue, while “reducing the cost of living” is up two points (to 46%).
Despite this shift, Carney and the Liberals retain a clear lead in voters’ minds on handling Trump (where they lead the Conservatives by 34 points among those who rank the Trump issue as a top concern). However, Poilievre and the Conservatives appear to have regained a small but meaningful advantage on housing affordability (+4) and reducing the cost of living (+4). These two issue areas are historically strong for Conservatives and remain central to the everyday concerns of many Canadians—especially as housing costs continue to to be a major pressure point and affordability remains front and centre.
When we segment voters by their top issues, a polarized pattern emerges:
Among the 33% who prioritize “dealing with Trump,” the Liberals lead by a 34-point margin (57% vs. 33%).
Among the 46% who list “cost of living” as a top concern, Poilievre’s Conservatives lead by 11 points (46% vs. 35%).
Shift in Voter Framing: “Change” vs. “Trump”
A specific question in our survey probes which factor is more likely to decide people’s votes: (a) the party best able to handle Donald Trump’s impact on Canada, or (b) the party best able to deliver a change in direction and policy. Since the start of the campaign, more Canadians had typically answered “Trump.” Now, 55% say their vote is about delivering change, versus 45% who continue to prioritize handling Trump. This reversal dovetails with the increased desire for change observed in this poll, potentially magnifying Conservative gains.
We also asked about other pairings: “cost of living vs. dealing with Trump,” and “best plan for the economy vs. dealing with Trump.” In both cases, cost of living and “change” have begun to pull away from “Trump.” While many Canadians remain concerned about the ramifications of Donald Trump’s policy stances, a growing share appears to consider domestic affordability challenges the more immediate priority. That tilt benefits Poilievre.
Liberals Still Seen as the Likely Winners
Despite the tightening of the horse race and a growing demand for change, 48% of Canadians say they expect the Liberals to win the election, an increase of one point since last week. Meanwhile, 32% believe the Conservatives will come out on top—unchanged over the same period.
Elevated Interest and Debate Expectations
As with previous waves, overall campaign interest continues to track higher than in Canada’s 2021 election. Notably, a majority of respondents (57%) say they are “very interested,” and the share who rate their interest at a perfect 10 on a 10-point scale remains above one-third. This heightened engagement could translate into stronger-than-usual turnout, particularly for parties able to mobilize supporters around their core issues.
Debate viewership is likewise expected to be substantial. Many Canadians plan to watch both the French-language debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow, though the English event typically garners a much larger national audience. Expectations for Mark Carney remain highest for the English debate: 41% believe he will perform best, compared to 34% who pick Poilievre. Meanwhile, for the French debate, Poilievre (31%) and Yves-François Blanchet (31%) share top billing among those with an opinion, though Carney could exceed relatively modest expectations (12%) if he demonstrates improved French-language fluency.
The Upshot
Two weeks ago, the Liberals held a six-point advantage nationally. In our latest poll, conducted earlier this week, that lead is down to just two points. In fact, among the most committed voters, the Conservatives hold a slender edge—possibly reflecting a more energized Conservative base or an electorate turning its focus back to cost-of-living concerns. Moreover, the desire for change has bounced back to 56%, and that momentum typically favours the main opposition party. Taken together, these indicators add up to meaningful good news for Pierre Poilievre, who needs continued momentum to build enough of a popular vote advantage to win more seats.
Still, it would be premature to declare this a genuine sea change. This was a smaller-sample survey, so we are not drawing ironclad conclusions about a permanent shift in the race. Moreover, Mark Carney continues to score highest on personal popularity and leads in overall “Preferred Prime Minister” metrics by six points. His party also remains ahead or competitive on key policy areas like handling Donald Trump, the economy, climate change, and international representation, and is competitive on more traditionally strong Conservative issues like affordability and housing.
Ultimately, the Liberal position remains arguably stronger than a two-point national lead might suggest, owing to robust support in Ontario and Quebec, Carney’s relative popularity, and a still-sizeable group of voters who anticipate a Liberal victory. That said, Poilievre’s path to unseating the government has become more tangible over the past couple of weeks, thanks to renewed emphasis on affordability and rising dissatisfaction with the status quo. The upcoming French and English Leaders’ Debates could be pivotal, especially for voters who tune in looking for an alternative to the Liberals. If Poilievre can deliver a performance that galvanizes swing voters or those craving change, this could put the Conservatives in a position to keep chipping away at the Liberal lead.
We’ll have a clearer sense of whether this narrowing gap is a short-term fluctuation or part of a longer-term trend after we conduct our next poll over the long weekend. With advance voting starting this Friday and Election Day on April 28, the final stretch of this campaign is rapidly approaching—and these next few days, including both debates, could prove decisive.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,200 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 14 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Canadians Back Cannabis As Economic Driver: 64% want federal support to help sector thrive
As Canadians grapple with the ongoing uncertainties triggered by the Trump administration’s tariff threats and potential economic fallout, there is broad recognition that our country must find new ways to expand its economy and create good-paying jobs. From coast to coast, people believe Canada must seize every opportunity to secure its economic future. Whether by reducing interprovincial trade barriers or investing in emerging industries, the political appetite for bold leadership on economic growth is stronger than ever.
A recent Abacus Data survey of 1,915 Canadian adults, conducted for leading cannabis producer Organigram Global, sought to understand just how open Canadians are to supporting and investing in the legal cannabis industry as part of this broader push for economic resilience. The timing of this poll is noteworthy, taking place in the midst of a federal election campaign where jobs and economic policy have been front and centre. With lingering anxieties about trade tensions and a general belief that Canada needs to diversify its economic drivers, we wanted to determine if the cannabis sector has the public support necessary to grow and become a major contributor to our country’s future prosperity.
Widespread Agreement on the Need for Economic Action
Before zeroing in on cannabis, our survey established the broader context: virtually everyone in Canada believes we need to find new ways of growing our economy, seize opportunities to strengthen it, and work hard to reduce or remove trade barriers between the provinces. This consensus stems in large part from the current atmosphere of economic uncertainty. Many Canadians sense a “now or never” moment—sparked by President Donald Trump’s protectionist impulses and the potential upheaval they could cause for Canadian exporters. This atmosphere has prompted calls for leadership and policy innovation that can safeguard and expand our domestic economy.
Indeed, the data confirm that Canadians see Trump’s threats as a wake-up call for politicians of all stripes. A significant majority—well over 80%—believe that in response to U.S. trade risks, Canada should take steps to bolster our domestic economic capacity, including removing internal barriers and generating new industry growth. The bottom line? There is a strong appetite for creative solutions that will yield good-paying jobs across the country, rather than placing all of our bets on historically dominant sectors.
Testing Openness to an Emerging Industry: Cannabis
To assess whether Canadians might support federal government support for the legal cannabis sector, we started by asking a simple question—without revealing the industry in question. We described a hypothetical Canadian industry that had contributed $40 billion to Canada’s GDP, created 80,000 new jobs in mid-sized cities over the past eight years, and had the potential to add billions more to GDP while creating hundreds of thousands of additional jobs over the next five years. Then we asked whether people would see it as a good or bad idea for the next federal government to help create the conditions for this unnamed industry to grow.
The results were overwhelming: 74% of respondents thought it would be a good idea, while only 2% felt it would be a bad idea (the remainder were unsure or neutral). This speaks volumes about Canadians’ desire to pursue any promising opportunity that drives growth, jobs, and innovation—especially given the current climate of trade tension and broader economic anxiety.
We then revealed that the industry in question was legal cannabis. Although mentioning cannabis did increase some reservations, the shift was not as significant as one might expect. In fact, 80% of Canadians continued to feel supporting this industry’s growth was “not a bad idea,” and those who believed it was a “very good idea” were twice as numerous as those who felt it was a “very bad idea.” Cannabis may still carry some stigma for a small subset of the population, but most Canadians appear open to the economic opportunities this regulated and legal industry can bring.
Current and Potential Contributions of Cannabis
Our survey also asked people a series of true/false statements to test knowledge and measure support for Canada’s cannabis industry. A key takeaway: many Canadians already recognize that a wide range of cannabis products, from dried flower to edibles and beverages, are produced and sold in Canada. However, there is less widespread awareness of the massive market potential and how substantially the cannabis sector is already contributing to regional economies. For example, in Moncton, New Brunswick, one of the largest cannabis producers in the country – Organigram Global – is a major local and regional employer—yet this fact flies under the radar for many Canadians living outside Atlantic Canada.
When asked whether Canada’s cannabis industry is currently an important contributor to our economy, 57% agreed—and only 14% disagreed. Regionally, support for the idea that cannabis is “already” contributing was notably high in Atlantic Canada, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Ontario, with slightly more caution in provinces like Alberta and Quebec. The poll results suggest that Canadians who are aware of the existing footprint are generally supportive of the industry’s contribution—and those who are uncertain often become more supportive once the full economic potential is clarified.
Even more tellingly, an even larger share of Canadians—62%—believe the cannabis industry “could be” an important contributor to the economy in the future. Only 13% disagree. This signals there is an appetite for the sector’s continued expansion. Again, differences by region exist but remain modest: Atlantic Canadians, for example, are particularly optimistic (71% agree it could be important), reflecting the region’s success stories in cannabis job creation.
Almost No Political Risk: Cross-Partisan and Regional Support
Beyond these high-level indicators, we wanted to test how Canadians would react if the “next federal government” were to take steps that make it easier for the legal cannabis industry to continue to create jobs and contribute to economic growth. The most recent data indicate that 64% of Canadians are open to such actions—18% say they would be “excited” and another 46% would be “okay with it.” Only 22% would object (14% “not be okay with it,” and 7% “be very angry about it”), while 15% remain unsure.
Strikingly, this openness holds across every region of the country. In Atlantic Canada, 72% would either be excited or okay with it, the highest figure nationally. In Ontario, 69% are open; in British Columbia, 65%; and in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, 62%. Alberta and Quebec, where support is somewhat more tempered, still see 59% and 55% openness respectively—a majority in each case.
This warmth toward government support of the cannabis industry also spans the political spectrum. Among people intending to vote Liberal, 68% express openness. Among Conservatives, 64% are open, while 27% object. NDP supporters register 70% in favour, and Green Party supporters climb to 73%. Even among Bloc Québécois supporters, 51% say they’d be excited or okay with the idea—a plurality, despite the relatively high 30% unsure in Quebec. Across the board, the pattern is clear: championing the cannabis industry is unlikely to alienate a significant portion of any party’s voter base.
These findings run counter to the conventional wisdom that cannabis might be a politically risky topic, especially among more conservative or cautious voters. The data show that, in every major demographic group, more people are open than opposed to seeing the sector grow—with a fairly sizable proportion simply waiting to learn more.
Social License for Growth—and an Untapped Opportunity
What does all of this mean as Canadians head to the polls to choose a federal government? First, it underscores the remarkably broad-based support—and, in fact, more intense support than opposition—for efforts to strengthen the legal cannabis sector. Given ongoing challenges with global trade and the unpredictability of the current U.S. administration, building up a high-growth industry like cannabis could be a prudent strategy for insulating our economy from external shocks.
Second, because support transcends regional and partisan lines, there is relatively low political risk for any party or politician who wants to champion cannabis-friendly policies. Whether you’re campaigning in downtown Vancouver, rural Ontario, or Atlantic Canada, pushing for responsible regulatory reforms or investment incentives for the cannabis sector is unlikely to provoke significant blowback. On the contrary, the data suggest that more than half of voters in every region and within every party’s base would be comfortable or even excited to see the industry continue to expand.
In practical terms, this could translate into further efforts to remove interprovincial barriers on cannabis sales, reform the excise taxation framework, standardize regulations, and encourage investment in research and development. Governments can offer competitive tax or financing programs aimed at cannabis entrepreneurs—particularly in areas hard hit by economic downturns in traditional sectors. Doing so would help expand cultivation, processing, retail, and spinoff opportunities in communities seeking to diversify their economic base.
The Upshot
The results of this survey point to a clear social license for growth: most Canadians either already see the cannabis industry as a valid economic contributor or believe it could play a significant role in bolstering our country’s future. Among those aware of how cannabis companies are revitalizing certain regions, support can be even stronger.
As we approach the final days of a federal election marked by intense discussion of job creation and economic resilience, it would be a mistake for any leader to overlook the potential of the cannabis sector. Canadians from different regions and political stripes largely agree that if cannabis can offer jobs, investment, and tax revenue—without compromising health and safety—it makes sense to help it flourish. In a time of global uncertainty, harnessing this homegrown industry might just be one of the smarter bets we can make.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from April 3 to 8, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.34%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Organigram Global.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
How Canada-US Tensions are Redefining the Modern Canadian Shopper
In a time when inflation bites, global headlines unsettle, and economic anxiety shapes everyday life, Canadians aren’t just tightening their belts – they’re rethinking what their purchases say about them and the country they want to live in. Shopping has become more than a transaction; it’s a declaration of values, a search for stability, and a subtle but powerful expression of identity. In our latest Abacus Data national consumer survey, we unpack how Canadians are responding to uncertainty with purpose – embracing brands that reflect not just good value, but shared values. From rising skepticism of American companies to the growing appeal of Canadian-made products, a new consumer mindset is taking hold – one shaped by pride, caution, and a deep desire for connection in an unpredictable world.
From April 3 to 8, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly tracking.
In a climate of mounting global instability and economic pressure, this research explores how Canadians are responding not just with caution, but with intention – gravitating toward brands that reflect their values, identity, and national pride.
As price pressures persist, Canadians are rethinking how and why they shop. Consumer behaviour is increasingly shaped by emotional, political, and values-based considerations – decisions driven not just by cost, but by a desire for security, identity, and alignment with personal and national values. From brand trust to national pride, purchasing is becoming a more intentional and expressive act.
Caution in the Face of Uncertainty
Nine in ten Canadians say they’re more cautious with their spending today (91%), reflecting not just tighter wallets, but deeper worries about where things are headed.
This uncertainty is reflected in a shift toward more conservative purchasing behaviours. Nearly half (47%) say they are limiting themselves to essentials, while 14% focus more on immediate, short-term needs rather than planning for the future. Only a small minority of Canadians (16%) say their shopping behaviors have remained unchanged over the past year, underscoring the profound shift in consumer sentiment.
As a result, Canadian shoppers are increasingly prioritizing security and immediate needs, adjusting their purchasing habits in response to a rapidly changing and unpredictable environment.
Personal Values and How They Shape Shopping Behavior
While price remains a factor, many consumers are no longer just asking “What does this cost?” – they’re asking, “What does this support?” More than ever, Canadians are aligning their purchases with who they are and what they believe. A large majority (74%) feel that shopping has become more of a political or moral decision than ever before. They want brands that align with their values and give them a sense of security – 71% of consumers choose brands that make them feel more secure about the future, and 65% have stopped buying from companies whose values they disagree with.
This connection to identity is powerful: 62% say their purchases increasingly about identity – who they are, what they believe, and where they belong. Further, 61% of Canadians are more likely to purchase from brands they recognize, even if these brands are not necessarily the most cost-effective option.
In a precarity mindset, people don’t just want affordability – they want assurance. A precarity mindset isn’t about panic – it’s about finding safety, meaning, and agency in everyday decisions.
For brands, this means that aligning with consumers’ personal values and fostering a sense of security may be more important than ever. To remain competitive, brands and companies must not only provide high-quality products and services but also build deeper connections with consumers by reflecting their beliefs, identity, and offering familiarity in uncertain times.
National Pride as a Purchase Driver
Rising tensions between Canada and the U.S. are accelerating a profound shift in how Canadians shop.
Driven by a growing sense of national pride and a desire for control in uncertain times, consumers are making more deliberate, values-driven choices.
Nearly 9 in 10 (88%) say buying Canadian-made products is more important to them now than it was a year ago. An equally large majority (87%) see supporting Canadian businesses as a way to contribute to national resilience – a sentiment that’s reshaping loyalty and brand preference. Most (87%) now prefer to buy from Canadian companies they trust, even if it costs more.
This emotional connection runs deep. Over 8 in 10 (86%) say they feel a sense of pride when choosing Canadian-owned brands, while 84% see it as a way to regain a sense of control in an unpredictable world. As global instability continues, 83% now say where a product is made matters more than ever – and 77% admit they’re more skeptical of American companies than they used to be.
For brands, this is a clear signal: emphasizing Canadian roots, local production, and alignment with national values isn’t just a nice-to-have – it’s becoming a competitive advantage. In this era of precarity, trust, identity, and pride are becoming central to how Canadians decide what (and who) they buy. Brands that meet this moment will be the ones that don’t just sell – they stand for something.
Behaviors That Have Become More Common
As Canadians become more attuned to the impact of global instability, certain shopping behaviours have become increasingly common. More than half of Canadians (55%) are now paying closer attention to where products are made, while 52% are looking at labels to confirm Canadian origin. 47% of Canadians report feeling a greater sense of pride when buying Canadian-made products and services. Other behaviours, such as comparing Canadian and U.S. brands (39%), supporting companies that promote Canadian values or identity (37%), and choosing Canadian brands even if they are more expensive (33%), have also become more prevalent.
Canadian brands can capitalize on this shift by emphasizing their Canadian origins and aligning with national values. Promoting Canadian-made products, offering transparency, and supporting local causes can help build trust and loyalty, especially as consumers prioritize local goods – even at a premium – during times of uncertainty.
For American or multinational brands, the path forward in Canada is not about hiding your global roots – it’s about making your Canadian presence real, visible, and meaningful. If your products are made in Canada, say so – clearly and proudly. Spotlight the Canadians who design, build, grow, or deliver them. Emphasize Canadian ingredients, components, or services wherever possible. Be transparent about your local footprint: the jobs you support, the partnerships you build, the communities you invest in. Consumers are looking for proof that your brand understands and contributes to their reality. Authenticity matters – now more than ever. If you want to remain relevant and competitive in this evolving market, your Canadian story can’t be an afterthought. It needs to be front and centre.
Actions Taken: Avoiding American Brands, Supporting Canadian Alternatives
These shifts in sentiment are showing up clearly in shopping behaviour. Nearly half of Canadians (49%) have avoided American brands, 39% are actively choosing Canadian-owned alternatives, and 34% are prioritizing local businesses over multinational chains. One in five (20%) have even canceled trips to the U.S. altogether. These actions reflect more than just cautious spending – they reveal a growing desire to assert control, express national pride, and make purchases that align with personal and Canadian values.
Willingness to Pay More for Canadian Products
Despite a shift toward more cautious spending and a focus on immediate needs due to long-term uncertainty, national pride is driving Canadians to make exceptions when it comes to price. Over half of Canadians (56%) are willing to pay more for a product made in Canada, with 49% motivated by a desire to support Canadian jobs and 41% believing it strengthens the country. This sense of national unity and pride outweighs other factors, such as personal values or security, as only 21% would pay more for a product aligned with their personal beliefs, and just 20% for one that offers a sense of security. In a time defined by uncertainty, buying Canadian has become more than a choice – it’s a statement of identity, solidarity, and shared resilience.
THE UPSHOT
The data paints a clear picture: Canadians are navigating today’s uncertainty not just with caution, but with a renewed sense of intentionality. In this environment, price still matters – but it’s no longer the only consideration, and often not the most important one. Security, values, identity, and national pride now rival cost in shaping consumer decisions. People are seeking more than products and services – they’re seeking meaning, familiarity, and a sense of control in an unpredictable world.
What we’re seeing is the emergence of a precarity mindset. It’s not about panic or austerity – it’s about seeking assurance. Canadians are gravitating toward brands they trust, that feel local, and that reflect who they are and what they believe in. They want to know that their money supports something worthwhile – whether that’s Canadian jobs, shared values, or a vision of the country they want to live in.
For brands, this means the rules of engagement are shifting. It’s no longer enough to compete on price or performance alone. Trust, identity, and alignment with Canadian values are becoming essential attributes. This doesn’t mean wrapping yourself in a flag or appealing to nationalism – it means being rooted, transparent, and connected to the lives of the people you serve.
Canadians are watching more closely. They’re reading labels. They’re choosing Canadian, even when it costs more. And they’re turning away from brands – particularly American ones – that don’t feel aligned with their priorities or context.
In this moment, brand leadership is about more than market share – it’s about meaning. Those who recognize the emotional and cultural context of today’s consumer will build deeper loyalty and long-term resilience. Those who don’t may find themselves increasingly out of step with a country that’s shopping with its heart as much as its head.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from April 3 to 8, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.34%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 4
At about the three-week mark of the campaign, a new Abacus Data poll conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025 finds the Liberals holding a 4-point lead over the Conservatives.
We see not only a shift in raw vote intention but a broader convergence of factors—leader impressions, expectations of who will form the next government, and top-of-mind issues—that now firmly favour the Liberals heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
Regionally, the Liberals continue to hold a solid 10-point lead in Ontario (48% vs. 38%). They are ahead by 23-points in Metro Toronto and by 2-points in the region surrounding Toronto (areas where postal codes start with L).
They remain dominant in Atlantic Canada, securing 55% to the Conservatives’ 31%. In Quebec, the Liberals hold a solid advantage over both the Conservatives and the Bloc (39% vs. 23% and 26%, respectively).
Meanwhile, the Conservatives still command large margins across Alberta and parts of the Prairies, though those leads have narrowed slightly relative to earlier in the campaign.
In British Columbia, the picture remains tight, with the Liberals and Conservatives effectively tied at 41%.
When looking at demographic patterns, the Liberals hold or match the Conservatives across all major age categories, including a notable double-digit advantage among those 60 years and older—a cohort that traditionally tilts more Conservative.
On educational attainment, the Liberals enjoy a sizable lead among university graduates, remain competitive among college graduates, and trail by a small margin among those with lower formal education. This points to a broadening of the Liberal coalition, which now spans a wide range of regions and demographic subgroups.
Much of the Liberals’ advantage can be attributed to improving public impressions of Mark Carney. The Liberal leader’s net favourability now stands at a robust +20 (48% positive vs. 28% negative), up significantly from the early weeks of the campaign.
In contrast, Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 38% of Canadians and negatively by 42%, resulting in a –4 net score. Poilievre’s supporters remain enthusiastic, but he has struggled to attract moderate or undecided voters at the same pace as Carney.
This difference is reflected in the “Preferred Prime Minister” metric, where Carney now leads Poilievre by nine points (43% vs. 34%).
Who is better… Carney or Poilievre?
New data from our latest wave of polling shows a marked upswing for Mark Carney on four leadership attributes we have consistently found to be strong predictors of vote intention. First, more Canadians now believe Carney is better at “finding common ground to solve a dispute,” suggesting that he is increasingly seen as the leader who can unite differing viewpoints and foster cooperation. This improvement underscores how Carney’s approach and messaging throughout the campaign have resonated with moderate and swing voters who value a prime minister capable of navigating political polarization.
Carney also continues to widen his lead on “standing up to a bully,” a measure that voters associate with resilience, fortitude, and the capacity to defend Canada’s interests on the international stage. At the same time, his edge on “captaining a ship through a rough storm” has grown, reflecting Canadians’ mounting perception that Carney has the judgement and temperament to steer the country through turbulent economic or diplomatic challenges. Both of these indicators became increasingly relevant amid concerns about Canada-U.S. trade relations and Donald Trump’s threats to Canada, lending Carney an advantage in the eyes of many voters looking for steadiness and competence
Finally, one of the most notable shifts is in how Carney is viewed on “helping you manage your household expenses”—a domain where Conservative messaging historically resonates. That Carney has managed to close and even overcome the gap on an issue so closely linked to affordability suggests he is successfully positioning himself as a pragmatic economic manager. Altogether, these four metrics illustrate a significant boost in Carney’s perceived leadership qualities; coupled with his improving overall favourability, they help explain the Liberals’ strengthening position as we enter the final stretch of the campaign.
Carney and the Liberals Expand Issue Ownership and Close Gap on Housing and Cost of Living
Turning to the issues, the Liberals’ position is buoyed by their perceived edge in managing the Trump file, the economy, climate policy, and national unity.
While the Conservatives had previously relied on cost-of-living concerns to rally voters, that once-formidable advantage has eroded amid heightened attention to potential cross-border tensions with the U.S. Mark Carney’s international and economic credentials appear to reassure many Canadians about his capacity to deal effectively with external shocks. The conversation surrounding “Liberation Day” and reciprocal tariffs seems to have played to the Liberals’ strengths, allowing them to spotlight Carney’s background and calm, measured tone on trade and foreign affairs.
Re-elect vs. Change
Over the past month, the proportion of Canadians saying it’s “definitely time for a change in government” has dropped from 57% in mid-March to 51% in our latest wave—representing a notable six-point decline in just a few weeks. At the same time, the share who feel it’s “definitely best to keep the Liberals in office” has risen steadily from 21% to 24%. This shift in sentiment suggests that the once pronounced appetite for unseating the incumbent government has softened, while core Liberal support has become more solid.
Compared to previous election cycles—both federal and provincial—the Liberals now sit squarely in what we’ve historically observed to be a “re-elect zone.” In past instances where incumbents have enjoyed a stable or growing group of committed supporters and a declining demand for change, they typically went on to secure another mandate. Although around half of Canadians still express a desire for change, the upward trend in those who strongly favour a Liberal re-election—and the downward movement in those insisting on a change—indicates a meaningful shift in the political landscape heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
Interest in the Election
Compared to the start of the 2021 general election, interest in this year’s campaign is substantially higher. In 2021, 53% of Canadians described themselves as “very interested” (scoring 8 to 10 on a 10-point scale), while this year, that figure has jumped to 69%. Moreover, the share who rate their interest at the maximum level (10 out of 10) has risen from 24% to 35%, underscoring the extent to which the electorate is more engaged than it was four years ago. This heightened enthusiasm suggests a broader public appetite to follow campaign developments closely—likely influenced by the higher-stakes issues and personalities dominating the 2025 race.
The Upcoming Leaders’ Debates
Our data indicate that 58% of Canadians say they intend to watch the upcoming English-language leaders’ debate, nearly double the 23% who plan to watch the French-language debate. Conversely, 69% say they will not be watching the French debate.
When asked to select the top five issues they want covered in the upcoming federal leaders’ debates, Canadians placed Donald Trump and his administration at the top of the list (68%), followed closely by housing affordability (65%), healthcare (64%), and jobs and the economy (63%). These core concerns reflect a blend of both international and domestic priorities, as voters weigh the potential impact of U.S. policy changes alongside everyday concerns about access to housing, stable healthcare services, and economic security. Immigration and population growth (43%) round out the mid-level tier, while national defence (36%), natural resource development (36%), and climate change (28%) are also viewed as critical topics for debate. Only a small fraction (10%) want a focus on Indigenous Reconciliation, and 5% would like to see other specific issues addressed.
Expectations heading into the two leaders’ debates vary dramatically by language. For the English-language debate, a 44% plurality of Canadians believe Mark Carney will turn in the strongest performance—well ahead of Pierre Poilievre at 32%, with the other leaders garnering only single-digit support.
In contrast, opinions on the French-language debate show a very different balance. While Pierre Poilievre leads with 30% expecting him to excel, a close 29% believe Yves-François Blanchet—an established presence in Quebec politics—will shine most brightly. Mark Carney, who holds a stronger image overall, is at just 12% on this measure, reflecting lingering doubts about his French proficiency or comfort level in a francophone debate setting. These comparatively low expectations could work in Carney’s favour if he manages to exceed them on debate night, but for now, it’s Poilievre and Blanchet who voters believe will dominate on the French stage.
The Upshot
Looking ahead, time is growing short for the Conservatives to reverse these trends. With the media narrative increasingly highlighting Carney’s leadership abilities and the Liberals’ overall momentum, Poilievre may need to pull focus back onto bread-and-butter issues like affordability and government accountability if he hopes to diminish the Liberals’ advantage. Historically, elections can shift course in the final stretch, but the data presently on offer point to a Liberal campaign that is both motivated and increasingly unified—finding ways to expand beyond its base of 2021 supporters.
Taken as a whole, the latest polling suggests that the Liberals have the upper hand in the 2025 federal election. Mark Carney’s rapid favourability climb, combined with regional and demographic realignments, has positioned his party as the current favourite to form government. While there is still a path to victory for the Conservatives—given their sizeable base and strong foothold in parts of Western Canada—the impetus now lies with Pierre Poilievre to drive a major shift in the campaign narrative if he hopes to close the gap before election day.
Many Canadians say they plan to watch at least one of the upcoming leaders’ debates, with especially high interest in the English-language event. Expectations for Mark Carney are notably high on that stage, where a sizeable share of voters predict he will turn in the strongest performance, eclipsing Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders. However, anticipation for Carney’s showing in the French-language debate remains more muted: a much smaller proportion expect him to do well against opponents like Poilievre and Yves-François Blanchet. These data points highlight both a large viewership for the debates overall and a leader whose perceived strengths in English contrast with lingering doubts about his French proficiency. The debates could be critical moments in this campaign.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 7 to 10, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
How Carney pulled ahead — and why he shouldn't get too comfy – Toronto Star
With the federal election campaign well underway, the Star invited two eminent pollsters — David Coletto of Abacus Data and Allan Gregg of … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/its-not-over-two-pollsters-explain-how-mark-carney-pulled-ahead-and-why-he-shouldnt/article_85e3a2c3-6d5b-4c8c-b584-75e9a28ec6d3.html&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw1B1n9VHMK-LRjTwHS5I3Kr
How young men are changing what conservatism looks like in Canada
Gen-Z is heading in opposite directions politically: women turning left, while men go right
Abacus Data Poll: What do Canadians want discussed at the Leaders’ Debates?
As Canadians prepare to tune into the federal Leaders’ Debates next week—April 16 in French and April 17 in English—new data from Abacus Data finds they are coming with a clear set of expectations about what the leaders should talk about.
We asked 1,800 Canadians surveyed from April 7 to 10, 2025 to choose up to five issues they believe should be discussed in the debates. At the top of the list? Dealing with Donald Trump and his administration (68%), housing affordability and availability (65%), healthcare and access to services (64%), and jobs and the economy (63%). These four issues dominate the public’s mind and form a core agenda that spans demographics and partisanship, though notable differences emerge beneath the surface.
Trump, housing, healthcare, and jobs lead—but not for everyone
The single most commonly selected issue was how Canada should deal with Donald Trump and his administration. With Trump looming large over the election and Canada’s economy so tightly linked to his tariff threats, nearly 7 in 10 Canadians want to see the party leaders explain how they would manage that relationship. The desire to see this discussed was particularly high among older Canadians—81% of those 60+ chose this, compared to just 57% of those aged 18 to 29.
Housing affordability ranked second overall, especially resonant among younger Canadians. It was selected by 71% of those aged 18 to 29 (their top issue), compared to 63% of those over 60. It was also the top issue for NDP (75%) and Bloc Québécois (67%) voters. Conservatives (67%) and Liberals (64%) were close behind, suggesting strong cross-partisan concern about the housing crisis.
Healthcare and access to services (64%) was a higher priority for women (70%) than men (58%), and most popular among older Canadians (77% among those 60+), making it a top issue for that age group just behind Trump. Supporters of the Liberal Party (68%), NDP (71%), and Bloc (71%) were especially likely to want healthcare discussed, compared to 58% of Conservative supporters.
Jobs and the economy rounded out the top four, with similar levels of support across gender and age, though Conservative voters (69%) were most likely to select it.
Other issues: immigration, national defence, climate change divide voters
Immigration and population growth (43%) was selected more by older Canadians and Conservative voters (55%) than others. National defence and security (36%) was also more top of mind for men (41%) than women (31%).
Climate change and the environment (28%) was one of the most polarized issues. While just 16% of Conservative supporters selected it, 37% of Liberals, NDP, and Green supporters did. Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, 36% selected it—more than any other age group.
Indigenous reconciliation (10%) and “something else” (5%) ranked lowest overall, though younger Canadians were twice as likely to mention reconciliation than those over 60.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 7 to 10, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.