How an emerging precarity mindset is impacting public opinion and the Canadian election
March 26, 2025
We’re at a turning point in Canadian public opinion: once defined by a scarcity mindset—where rising housing costs, healthcare strains, and job insecurity forced many to scramble for essentials—our collective outlook is now shifting toward something else: precarity. While concerns around what is available today still matter, the fear that core systems (healthcare, housing, social services) may fail is raising the stakes. Recent Trump tariffs and threats on Canadian sovereignty only add to this sense of instability and uncertainty, amplifying broader concerns about how resilient our society really is.
We recently released new research that indicates more and more Canadians are delaying major life decisions, and are worried that their finances and communities might not hold up. This isn’t just about feeling squeezed right now; it’s about questioning whether the future itself is secure. With an election in full swing, these anxieties will inevitably shape both voter choices and broader political conversations.
In this post, we’ll unpack how this mindset of uncertainty is playing out in the Canadian election. We will dig deeper into the precarity mindset and what it means for political behaviour. Understanding this shift is essential to offering genuine stability at a time when so much feels up in the air.
Measuring the Precarity Mindset: Five Levels of Vulnerability
For this research and beyond, we wanted to move past simple measures of economic outlook and capture the broader sense of vulnerability many Canadians are voicing. To do this, we created a “precarity index” that groups respondents into five levels of precarity based on how strongly they feel the pinch—or the panic—about future uncertainty.
From questions rating statements like “Ongoing global events often leave me feeling unsure” or “Frequent economic changes cause me to feel financially insecure” on a scale from 0 to 10. The scores below are the average rating. A higher rating signifies a higher degree of precarity and concern about that item.
Leading the pack, at 6.8, is the concern that ongoing global events create a constant sense of uncertainty about the future—reflecting how international headlines can unsettle everyday life. Close behind, at 6.6, is the worry that frequent economic changes foster financial insecurity. Two factors tied at 6.4: the challenge of making long-term plans in a turbulent world, and the anxiety caused by the overall unpredictability of life.
Climate change fears land at 5.3, signalling that while it’s not top of mind for everyone, it’s definitely a concern for many. Confidence that governments will shield Canadians from major crises hovers around 5.2, suggesting a lukewarm trust in public institutions. Finally, anxieties about rapid technological advances—like automation—sits at 5.1, underscoring the lingering unease around future job security.
Using these responses, we identified five groups:
Low Precarity (about 9%): The most confident (or ignorant depending on your perspective) Canadians—less likely to perceive sudden shifts as immediate threats to their personal wellbeing.
Mild Precarity (about 14%): Some worries exist, but they believe they can weather most storms.
Moderate Precarity (about 38%): The largest group, who feel regular anxiety yet aren’t convinced catastrophe is imminent. They’re concerned but still see room for optimism.
High Precarity (about 30%): Here, stress about finances, economic security, climate change, and technological change shapes day-to-day decisions, from career moves to voting intentions.
Extreme Precarity (about 9%): The most anxious segment, fearing that sudden and long-term disruptions—economic, environmental, or social—could upend their lives, and seeking security in the face of this intense sense of precarity.
Demographic Differences: Age, Gender, and Income
When we look at how age, gender, and income factor into these categories, several trends emerge:
- Age: There is a clear relationship with age and having a precarity index. Younger adults (under 30) are overrepresented in the High and Extreme Precarity categories and the incidence of precarity drops as Canadians age.
- Gender: Women lean more heavily toward the High and Extreme ends of the precarity scale than men. Persistent wage gaps, caregiving responsibilities, and concerns about social safety nets amplify feelings of vulnerability.
- Household Income: Lower-income households show higher precarity, but it’s not exclusive to them. Even Canadians with higher incomes report serious concerns—especially if they’re worried about job automation or market volatility undermining what they’ve built.
How Precarity Affects Voting Behaviour
Our data shows a clear relationship between level of precarity and federal vote intention. Among those with Low Precarity, over half say they’d vote Conservative, compared to only 15% of those in Extreme Precarity. Conversely, Liberal support surges to around 60% among the extremely precarious—significantly higher than among more secure Canadians. This pattern suggests that the more anxious people feel about Canada’s economic and social environment, the more likely they are to gravitate toward parties they believe will deliver immediate relief or strong government interventions.
However, partisan attachment—that is, identifying as a member or supporter of a particular party—doesn’t neatly align with precarity. Even respondents who call themselves “Conservative” appear at varying levels of precarity, and some ultimately plan to vote Liberal or NDP when pressed on their ballot choice. This indicates that while partisan identification remains an important part of how Canadians see themselves, actual voting behaviour can shift under the weight of an ongoing precarity mindset.
What this means in practical terms is that some Canadians who still identify with Conservative ideals may, in the face of financial or social anxiety, opt for today’s Liberal Party led by Mark Carney at the ballot box. Precarity, in other words, can shake even deeply held political allegiances.
Beyond the Ballot Box
Our survey data shows that the level of precarity someone feels is a significant factor in shaping their view of Donald Trump, with more precarious Canadians generally holding more negative opinions of the U.S. President. Among those with Low Precarity, just over one in five (21%) have a mostly or very positive view of Trump, while that figure drops to 16% for those in Mild Precarity. The percentage continues to decline for Moderate (13%) and High (13%) groups, reaching 12% among those in Extreme Precarity. In other words, the more vulnerable or anxious individuals feel about their personal economic and social standing, the less likely they are to have a favourable impression of Donald Trump – likely because Trump himself has created the precarity they seek shelter and protection from.
Interestingly, this relationship does not appear to extend to how people perceive the overall direction of Canada or which issues they prioritize at the ballot box. Canadians at all levels of precarity have fairly similar views on whether the country is on the right track or off on the wrong track. Even within the High and Extreme Precarity groups—those most uneasy about their futures—opinion is fairly split, suggesting that personal vulnerability does not automatically translate into a specific stance on national well-being.
Likewise, when asked to choose the top issues that will influence their vote—like cost of living, housing affordability, or healthcare improvements—individuals across all precarity levels generally highlight the same priorities. While those with higher precarity may feel a greater sense of urgency, the overall set of concerns is consistent across the board.
Taken together, these findings suggest that personal anxiety does shape how Canadians perceive certain international figures—notably Donald Trump—but doesn’t necessarily inform their broader outlook on where the country is heading or which issues they find most important.
What differs is the intensity of worry, not the issue itself. Nearly everyone feels the pinch at the grocery store or the pump; almost everyone sees mounting pressures on the healthcare system. Even climate concerns cut across the most of ideological spectrum. The difference is that people in the High or Extreme Precarity groups may be more anxious for swift, decisive action—having lost faith that “the system” will fix itself.
In other words, the entire electorate agrees on the big-ticket problems. The question is how urgently they need them addressed, and by whom.
Broader Election Implications
So what does the precarity mindset mean for the current federal election—and Canada’s future political landscape?
Voter Fluidity: Many voters are open to persuasion. While some remain firmly in a party’s camp, a significant share of Canadians—especially in High or Extreme Precarity—are willing to move if they hear concrete, credible solutions to their anxieties.
No ‘One-Size-Fits-All’ Approach: Parties can’t rely on a single message or assume that targeting one demographic will be enough. Both younger and older Canadians are feeling vulnerable, though for different reasons. Policies must speak to diverse anxieties, from economic security, to housing to healthcare and climate resilience.
Beyond Election Day: This mindset shift from scarcity to precarity won’t vanish once the ballots are counted. Canadians will continue to seek long-term stability, especially in the face of threats from Donald Trump, demanding more effective governance, tangible economic security, and stronger social safety nets.
Ultimately, our evolving sense of vulnerability is reshaping how Canadians make decisions—from the brands we buy to the political parties we support. Leaders who acknowledge the depth of this precariousness and propose meaningful, lasting solutions have a real opportunity to connect with voters across demographic lines. Conversely, those who dismiss or underestimate these anxieties risk missing a central undercurrent of this election and beyond.
Final Thoughts
Our latest data shows that Canadians aren’t just squeezed financially—they’re worried about whether key systems will hold up under the weight of global uncertainty. This precarity mindset crosses income brackets and party lines, complicating traditional assumptions about voter blocks. It’s also a warning sign: a public that feels insecure and unheard is a public open to political realignment. Just ask Justin Trudeau the effect when this happens.
If campaigns want to resonate in this new reality, they’ll need more than catchy slogans. They’ll need plans that signal genuine stability—affordable housing, reliable healthcare, and tangible readiness for future challenges. And whichever party forms government next, the work won’t end on election night. Canadians will be watching closely to see if today’s promises turn into tomorrow’s peace of mind.
Because in an age of precarity, trust is the currency that matters most.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians eligible to vote from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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