Abacus Data Poll: The Opinion Landscape in Canada Continues to Shift

From February 20 to 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults.

We find that the horse race continues to tighten as perceptions and impressions shift. The opinion landscape is evolving and looks quite different than the one we have seen over the previous 18 months.

Here is what we see:

1 – Optimism about the direction of the country hits a two-year high.

Today, 30% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, an 11-point increase from the low-point in the middle of December. In contrast, 54% think the country is off on the wrong track.

2 – The desire for change is shifting.

Today, just under half of Canadians say they want a change in government and believe there is a good alternative available. At 48%, this measure is down 8 points in two months and the lowest it’s been since August 2023. At the same time, those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected are up to 20%

3 – The cost of living, Trump, healthcare, housing, and the economy are the top issues

We haven’t seen much change in the issue set with the cost of living, Trump, healthcare, housing, and the economy in the top 5 issues.

When we follow up and ask people who rated an issue in their top 3 which party they think is best able to handle it, the Conservatives continue to lead on the cost of living (by 16 over the Liberals), on housing (by 9 over the Liberals), and the economy (by 22). The Liberals have opened up a 10-point lead among those who rate Trump and his administration as a top issue.

4 – For the first time since last summer, less than half of Canadians think the Conservatives will win the next election.

Today, 46% of Canadians think the Conservatives are going to win the next election, down 6 points in two weeks and down 16-points since the middle of January. Those who think the Liberals will win the next election is up 6 points, a high since the beginning of last year.

5 – Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in Canada

Today, 18% of Canadians have a positive impression of Donald Trump while 68% have a negative view. Liberal (79%), NDP (82%), and BQ (94%) supporters are almost in universal agreement about having a negative view of Trump. Conservative supporters are more divided. 33% of Conservative supporters have a positive view, 20% neutral, and 48% negative.

6 – The Liberal leadership race

We continue to track how Canadians feel about the leading candidates running to be the next Liberal leader. Mark Carney continues to have the most favourable impression. 36% of Canadians have a positive view of Carney (up 3 since the end of January) while 26% have a negative view (up 6) for a net score of +10. In contrast, Chrystia Freeland’s net score is -2.

At the same time, Mark Carney continues to offer the Liberals the best chance at increasing their support. 29% of Canadians say they would definitely or probably vote Liberal if Mark Carney is leader – 5 points more than say the same thing about Chrystia Freeland. The proportion of Canadians who say they will not vote Liberal if Carney is leader is 7-points smaller than those who feel the same about Freeland.

Based on this data, we estimate that Mark Carney could add up to 6 percentage points to the Liberal vote share taking almost equally from the Conservatives, NDP, Greens, and BQ.

The Impact on Political Opinions and Intended Behaviour

Given all of these shifts in broader perceptions and opinions, we also see changes in political opinions and intended behaviour.

1 – The accessible voter pools for the Conservative and Liberal parties are almost equal in size.

For the first time since the summer of 2023, the accessible voter pools available to the Conservative and Liberal parties are about equal. Today, 51% of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative, only 3-points larger than the 48% open to voting Liberal. Since the middle of December, the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool has increased by 12 points. That’s about 3 million Canadian adults now open to voting Liberal who weren’t only a few months ago.

2 – Negative impressions of Justin Trudeau are down while views of Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh are holding steady.

We continue to see an improvement in views towards Justin Trudeau. Today, 26% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister (up 7 in two months) while those with a negative view are down 8 to 56%. His net impression score is now -30.

At the same time, despite shifts in broader perceptions, views about Pierre Poilievre are holding steady. Today, 41% have a positive view of Pierre Poilievre while 41% have a negative impression for a net score of 0.

We also see little change in views towards Jagmeet Singh. 28% have a positive impression compared with 40% who have a negative view for a net score of -12.

3 – Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops to 12 as Liberal vote share continues to rise

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 29% would vote Liberal, and 14% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 6% nationally, while the Greens are at 4% and the People’s Party at 3%. Since our last survey two weeks ago, the Conservatives are down 5, the Liberals up 2, and every other party has seen a marginal shift. The NDP vote share at 14% is the lowest we have measured for the party is October 2016. The last time we had the Liberals at 29% was in June 2023.

Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows slightly, although not as much as it has in the past suggesting that Liberal voters continued to be as engaged and enthusiastic about voting as Conservatives. Today, the Conservatives have 42% among the most likely voters compared with 28% for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15%.

Regionally, the Liberals are up 7 in BC, 6 in Quebec, and 8 in Alberta. In Ontario, we haven’t seen much change from our previous survey. The Conservatives continue to lead in BC, the Prairies, Ontario, and are statistically tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.

When we combine B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada and look at the trend over time, we find the Liberal share in those provinces rising substantially over the past month.

Today, 31% would vote Liberal in those provinces up from 22% in mid-January compared while 44% in those provinces would vote Conservative. This is the highest Liberal vote share in those provinces since we started tracking these three provinces combined a year ago.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups and among men and women, but we continue to see Liberal growth among those aged 60 and over. The Conservatives lead by 15 among men and 9 among women.

When we look at the relationship between vote and educational attainment, the Conservatives continue to lead by a wide margin among those with high school education and those with a college degree or some university. Among those with a university degree, the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals is all but gone – the Conservatives are only marginally ahead of the Liberals.

When we compare current vote intention with past recalled vote (in 2021), we find that more than 85% of those who voted Conservative in 2021 say they will vote Conservative again (down 5 from two weeks ago). Much of those are now undecided.

In contrast, 66% of past Liberal voters say they would vote Liberal, that’s up 6 points in two weeks and up 16 points since Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement. The Liberal coalition is coming back together. We have seen a 6-point drop in past Liberal voters who say they are undecided.

In contrast, the NDP’s 2021 coalition of voters continues to splinter. Today, just over half of past NDP supporters (56%) say they would vote NDP again. That’s down 4 points in two weeks, and down 14 points since Trudeau’s resignation announcement. 16% of past NDP supporters say they would vote Conservative while 10% would vote Liberal.

We continue to see the Conservatives getting the largest share of those who didn’t vote in the last election.

Overall, the data points to a re-consolidation of the Liberals, moderate softening for the Conservatives, and a deep splintering of the NDP’s previous support.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Donald Trump’s shadow over Canadian political discourse continues to pose a challenge for the Conservatives, as their supporter base is far less united in its opposition to the former U.S. President than backers of other parties. While many Conservatives reject Trump’s rhetoric, a notable segment remains favourably disposed towards him, creating an internal rift that simply does not exist among Liberals, New Democrats, or Bloc Québécois voters. If Trump and his policies remain a focal point of public debate, the Conservatives risk being forced to contend with these divisions at the ballot box.

At the same time, Canadians’ outlook on the direction of the country has improved significantly, with the proportion saying it is heading in the right direction now at a two-year high. This more upbeat mood often makes voters less receptive to arguments for wholesale change and more inclined to give incumbents or new faces within the governing party a second look. The Liberals stand to benefit, particularly if they can continue to distance themselves from Trump’s brand of politics, offering some change from the Trudeau years, while pitching themselves as steady hands in an improving national climate.

Perhaps the most consequential development is the rise of Mark Carney as a potential Liberal leader who can deliver on this growing demand. By pulling support from across the spectrum—including the Conservatives and, in particular, a sizable chunk of the NDP vote—Carney has the potential to narrow the Conservative lead to just four points, according to current modeling. Taken together, these factors point to a newly fluid and competitive opinion environment, unlike anything observed in the last two years. While the Conservatives remain favoured, the foundations for a tightly fought race are clearly emerging.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Ontario Election 2025: PCs headed for a big majority

On February 24 and 25, 2025, we conducted our final poll of the 2025 Ontario provincial election with a representative online survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our fourth survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.

Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs are headed towards a big majority government, increasing their vote share from our previous poll.

Among committed voters and those who have already voted, the PCs are likely to get 45% of the vote, a four-point increase from our last poll and a larger share of the vote than the party received in the 2022 provincial election. The Ontario Liberals are at 29%, up 1 point from last week while the Ontario NDP is down 5 points to 16%. 5% would vote Green and 5% for another party.

Regionally, the PCs are numerically ahead in every region, leading by 26 points in the GTHA (not including Toronto), by 15 in southwestern Ontario, and are statistically tied with the Liberals in Toronto and eastern Ontario.

Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (51% to 28%) but face a more competitive race among women (38% PC, 31% Liberal). The PCs lead among all age groups, but their lead is greater among those aged 30 to 59. The Greens get 17% of those aged 18 to 29 in our survey.

Why are Doug Ford and the PCs set to be easily re-elected?

The desire for change has increased over the campaign, but a sufficiently large proportion of the electorate wants to see the PCs and Ford re-elected. Today, 57% say it is definitely time for a change in government in Ontario (up 9 since the beginning of the campaign) but 21% say Ford and the PCs should definitely be re-elected (only down 1). Almost all of those who say they would like the PCs to be re-elected are going to or have voted PC. But interestingly, 13% of those who say they definitely want change are also voting PC.

Among those who definitely want change, we also still see a split. 48% are voting or voted Liberal while 26% are voting NDP. Since the start of the campaign, the Liberals have increased their share of “definite change voters” (at the start of the campaign both the Liberals and NDP had 35%), but not by a sufficient margin to put themselves in a position to win the election.

When we compare our results today with past election, the desire for change number is approaching what we consider a danger zone for incumbent governments, but has not reached that point. As many people today in Ontario want to see Doug Ford and the PCs re-elected as did in our final poll in Nova Scotia (which the incumbent PC government easily won) and in our final 2022 Ontario election poll.

The PC Party has been able to overcome a growing desire for change because of three factors: it’s approval rating is relatively strong and improved in the final week, Doug Ford’s personal numbers are as good as any of the other party leaders, and voters are sufficiently focused on issues that the PCs are doing best on.

The Ford government’s approval rating rebounded this week, ending the campaign with 41% approving and 42% disapproving. This isn’t as good as when the campaign began but a solid place for an incumbent to be two days before election day.

When we asked how people feel about the party leaders, all four major party leaders end the campaign with a net favourable impression. Doug Ford is +3 (43% positive vs. 40% negative), Bonnie Crombie is +2 (33% positive vs. 31% negative), and Marit Stiles is +9 (33% positive and 24% negative).

Of note, since the start of the campaign, those with a positive impression of Bonnie Crombie have increased by 7 points (26% to 33%) while her negatives are down 3 (34% to 31%). For Stiles, her favourables are up 5 (28% to 33%) while her negatives are down 4 (28% to 24%). Those saying they don’t know enough about those leaders to have an opinion are down 8 for Crombie and 9 for Stiles.

Doug Ford started the campaign at 41% positive and ends at 43%. All in all, it is rare for all party leaders to end an election campaign better than when they started it but that’s what we are seeing in this one.

To reinforce Ford’s advantage, when we ask who people would prefer to be Premier, Ford is ahead of Crombie by 17 points when we remove those who are undecided. When the campaign started, Ford lead by a massive 31 points. Crombie’s share is up 7, but still well behind Ford.

Finally, perhaps the biggest factor in explaining the likely lopsided victory for the Ontario PCs is how they have been able to keep voters focused on issues they are more likely to own.

When we ask people what issues they most want to see debated in the election, our final poll finds little change from last week or the start of the campaign. 61% put the cost of living in their top 3 issues, followed by healthcare (40%), housing (37%), and dealing with Trump’s tariffs (32%). Since the start of the campaign, cost of living is up 1, healthcare is unchanged, housing is down 1 and Trump’s tariffs are unchanged. The campaign did not shift the focus of voters at all.

More specifically, when we ask people what is most likely to drive their vote, the cost of living still topped the list at 33% (but down 6 since the start of the campaign). Healthcare is now tied with dealing with the impact of Trump but has increased by 6 points since the start of the campaign. 14% say the party best able to manage the campaign is the biggest reason for their vote followed by housing at 9% and education at 3%. So the Liberals have been successful at increasing the salience of healthcare as a ballot issue, but not to an extent that is changing the election.

Among those who say the cost of living will be their biggest vote driver, the PCs are ahead by 18 points over the Liberals. They lead by 44 points among those who say their vote is about who is best to deal with Trump and lead by 31 points among those who say managing the economy is their primary concern.

Among the 1 in 5 voters who say healthcare is their top vote driver, the Liberals lead by the PCs by 21%. More evidence that the Liberals are winning big among those who care enough about the issue and say it is their ballot box driver. The problem for the Liberals is that the size of that group isn’t sufficient to win the election.

Finally, when we ask all eligible voters which party and leader is best able to handle several issues, we find that Ford and the PCs lead by a wide margin on responding to Trump, growing the economy, reducing the cost of living, and spending tax dollars responsibly. They are also tied or slightly ahead on education and healthcare.

And so while the Liberals have been successful at making healthcare a greater issue for more people and convincing more of those people to vote Liberal, the 2025 Ontario election ends where it began – it’s about the cost of living and the economy and the impact of Trump on both of those things. And on all of those issues, the PCs lead by comfortable margins.

Advanced Modelling of the Vote

To better explain the likely outcome of the election, I ran a binary logistic regression to estimate the impact of issue ownership on a vote for the PCs. Using the questions above, I modelled the likelihood someone would vote PC based on whether they thought the PCs are best able to handle the issues. Binary logistic regression is a statistical technique that predicts the probability of one of two outcomes (e.g., “Vote PC” vs “Don’t Vote PC”) based on one or more predictor variables.

The results indicate that believing Doug Ford and the PCs were best at managing the economy, controlling costs of living, and responding to Trump’s tariffs were the strongest predictors of a PC vote. In fact, model estimates suggest that someone who believed the PCs were best able to handle all three of these issues would have around a 75% likelihood of voting PC. Spending taxpayers’ money and education also mattered, though their coefficients were somewhat smaller. Improving healthcare had borderline significance on a vote for the PCs.

In contrast, when we model out the predictors of a vote for the Liberals and Bonnie Crombie, believing they are best able to improve healthcare was the strongest predictor of a Liberal vote. Next in importance were handling the economy, managing the cost of living, and responding to Trump’s tariffs. According to the model, if a voter thought that healthcare was the only issue the Liberals were best able to handle, their probability of voting Liberal was roughly 16%. However, if the same voter also thought the Liberals were best on the economy and cost of living, their estimated probability of voting Liberal jumped to about 73%. This underscores how healthcare alone wasn’t sufficient for the Liberals to win. They also had to convince more voters that they could manage the economy and the cost of living.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “With one day until all ballots will be cast, Doug Ford and the PCs remain on track for another decisive victory. Their share of the vote has grown since our last poll, and even though the desire for change is nearing a typical danger zone for an incumbent, it hasn’t translated into enough support for the opposition.

At the same time, we see some evidence that the Liberals have made gains—particularly around healthcare—and that the NDP and Greens have lost momentum. But those shifts don’t appear big enough to reshape the outcome. Voters remain focused on issues like the cost of living and the economy, where Ford and the PCs hold a comfortable lead. Healthcare has become more important, yet not to the extent needed to dislodge the incumbent.

Ultimately, the PCs’ ability to keep attention on their strongest issues has offset the rising desire for change. With the campaign drawing to a close, it looks like Ontario is poised to send Doug Ford and the PCs back to Queen’s Park with another majority mandate.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 24 to 25, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsProvincial Politics

Trudeau, Poilievre, Ford, and Smith: How are they doing handling the Canada-U.S. file?

Everything is about Donald Trump these days. In our issue tracking, he has become the second most cited issue. And the threat he poses to Canadians and the anxiety his decisions are creating puts immense pressure on political leaders to find the right tone, approach, and behaviour in response.

Our latest survey of 3,000 Canadian adults (February 5–11, 2025) reveals notable shifts over the past two weeks in how the public rates four key figures: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, Ontario Premier Doug Ford, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. We replicated questions asked on a similar survey two weeks ago.

Across the country, Premier Ford continues to lead the pack, with 37% saying he’s doing an “Excellent or Good” job managing the U.S. file, compared to 28% who call his performance “Poor or Very Poor.” That net score of +14 is up from +8 just two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre perceived performance remains divided, inching up from a net of -1 to +1. Prime Minister Trudeau, though still in negative territory, shows the most dramatic rebound—moving from -34 in January to -17 now, thanks in part to his immediate response to Trump’s tariff ultimatum. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith rounds out the group at -9, a small bump from -11, though nearly three in ten still admit they don’t know enough about her to form a clear opinion.

Ontario: Ford in Front, Trudeau on the Rise
In Ontario, which accounts for almost half of Canada’s population, Doug Ford’s numbers climb even higher. Nearly four in ten (37%) Ontarians believe he’s done an excellent or good job safeguarding the province’s (and by extension the country’s) interests against an unpredictable White House. By contrast, about 34% of Ontarians say the same of Poilievre and 29% of Trudeau, while Smith lags at 19%. Ford’s lead isn’t a huge surprise: his hands-on approach to cross-border negotiations, frequent trips to American states, and emphasis on bolstering Ontario manufacturing and trade deals keep him highly visible.

Notably, though, Trudeau is the one enjoying the largest boost in Ontario, jumping from 22% to 29% giving him positive marks. The PM’s swift televised statement on the night Trump announced potential tariffs, followed by efforts to secure an exemption or delay, appear to resonate with enough Ontarians to soften previous criticisms of his leadership on U.S. relations.

Alberta: Poilievre and Smith Lead, But Gaps Remain
Turning westward to Alberta, Poilievre posts his best regional numbers, garnering a solid 40% “Excellent or Good” rating in the province. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is close behind at 38%—though she sees limited recognition or traction outside her home turf. In a region where Conservative politics have historically played well, it makes sense that Poilievre does best here, and Smith’s local popularity stands out, despite a lack of national familiarity.

Trudeau’s fortunes in Alberta remain comparatively low, but the Prime Minister has nudged himself from 10% in January to 20% this month. That’s still the lowest rating among the four leaders in Alberta, yet it’s a notable shift given his historically limited appeal there. Ford, for his part, notches 29% support in Alberta—a decent showing for a politician outside the province, though well below the two Conservative leaders in that region.

Trudeau and Poilievre are Deeply Polarizing

One notable theme running through the data is the stark partisanship that shapes views of these leaders, with Trudeau and Poilievre as the clearest examples of polarization. Trudeau enjoys a lofty net rating of +53 among Liberal voters, yet plunges to -66 among Conservatives. Among NDP supporters, Trudeau is even. Poilievre sees the opposite dynamic: a very solid +58 with CPC supporters but a dismal -62 among Liberals and -49 among NDP supporters.

Views of Doug Ford are less polarizing. He gets as high a score among Liberal supporters as he does among Conservative ones nationally. Danielle Smith’s numbers look more like Pierre Poilievre with Liberals and NDP supporters largely disapproving with Conservatives more likely to think she’s doing a good job.

The Upshot

Trudeau’s improved standing is perhaps the most striking takeaway from this survey. Although his ratings remain in negative territory overall, his jump from -34 to -17 in the span of two weeks suggests a swift, tangible shift in public attitudes. His televised speech responding to President Trump’s tariff threats, coupled with behind-the-scenes efforts to stave off an outright trade war, improved perceptions of his handling of the issue.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre continues to illustrate the country’s partisan divide: he’s deeply admired by many Conservative voters but elicits caution—or outright disapproval—from Liberals and the NDP. That dynamic is most evident in Alberta, where Poilievre sees his highest approval levels, but it also resonates in Ontario, where he still has solid support. Interestingly, though, Ontario Premier Doug Ford now stands as the most broadly approved figure nationally. His hands-on approach in negotiating with American partners and his vocal defence of Ontario’s and Canada’s economy seem to be translating into net-positive impressions well beyond his home province—an indication of his newly elevated national profile.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Ontario Election 2025: Pre-Debate, PC lead drops as Ford’s negatives rise. Ontario Liberals clearly in second.

From February 13 to 15, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our third urvey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.

Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites but what was once a very large lead over the Liberals and NDP has tightened to just 13-points among committed Ontarians.

The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to lead, with 33% support among all eligible voters—a dip of 4 points in the last two weeks, a down 6 since just before the campaign started. The Ontario Liberals are now in a clear second with 23% (up 4), while the New Democrats (NDP) are holding steady at 17%. The Greens remain at 5%, and 19% of voters remain undecided.

Among committed voters, the PCs stand at 41%, a 5-point decline, while the Liberals (28%) are in a clear second, 7 points ahead of the NDP.

When looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs hold a larger advantage at 43% compared with 28% for the OLP and 21% for the NDP.

Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in most regions although the gap between them and the Liberals may be dropping in the GTHA. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they sit at 40% (down 12) and now only 5-points ahead of the Liberals who are at 35%. The PCs lead by 13 in Toronto, 24 in southwest Ontario and 20 in eastern Ontario.

Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (45%) but face a more competitive race among women (37% PC, 29% Liberal, 25% NDP). Age dynamics reveal a clear generational divide: among voters aged 18-29, the NDP is stronger and ahead of the PCs (36%), while the PCs dominate among those over 45. The Liberals, meanwhile, draw relatively even support with the PCs among Millennials (30 to 44).

What is driving the shift in vote intentions?

Several other key measures are shifting.

First, Doug Ford’s personal impressions are continuing to deteriorate. Today, 33% have a positive impression of the Ford, down four since our previous poll. His negatives are up four for a net score of -10. In contrast, we see both Bonnie Crombie’s and Marit Stiles’ numbers improve. Stiles’ net favourable is +4 while Crombie’s is -4 – both improvements from the last survey.

Any of the goodwill Doug Ford built up after the tariff threat from Trump has all but been erased and his personal image is back to where it was at the end of 2024.

Along with a shift in impressions of the party leaders, we also see Ford’s lead on preferred Premier close as well. Since the end of January, those who prefer Doug Ford as Premier is down 9 points from 52% to 43%. In contrast, those who premier Crombie as Premier is up 7 from 22% to 29%. Stiles is largely unchanged from the beginning of the campaign.

At the same time, we also see the provincial government’s approval rating continuing to drop with 34% approving and 43% disapproving. A return to the pre-tariff treat numbers we say in November 2024.

The Issues

The issues voters want to see discussed during the campaign have changed slightly. Dealing with Trump’s tariff threats is up 5-points to 36% now effectively tied with housing and healthcare. The cost of living is the top issue still but we have seen crime and climate change move up.

When it comes to potential ballot question cost of living and Trump are still the top two, but we have seen healthcare increase by 4 points. Cost of living and Trump are unchanged with 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 selecting it as the issue they are most likely to be voting about. Ford and the PCs lead by 8 among those who say the ballot question is affordability and lead by almost 50 among those who say it’s about dealing with Trump. Among those who rank healthcare as the top vote driver, the Liberals are ahead of the NDP by 10 with the PCs in third.

More broadly, Ford’s PCs continue to be seen as the best party to handle economic growth and job creation (33%) although down by 5 and managing the cost of living (29%) down 4. The Liberals are slightly ahead on healthcare (a seven point increase since our last survey).

Desire for Change Continues to Edge Up

As often happens over the course of an election campaign, we are seeing the number of people who definitely want to see a change in government rising. And that continues to happen in this one.

The latest survey finds that 55% of Ontarians say it is “definitely time for a change in government,” a seven-point increase since late January. However, historical comparisons suggest that this figure, while notable, does not yet indicate the PCs are in serious trouble. Once it reaches 60% the incumbents are a danger zone.

Additionally, only 17% say Ford and the PCs “should definitely be re-elected,” while 17% say they would prefer a change but don’t see it as a priority. This suggests that while there is a growing appetite for change, the opposition has yet to consolidate enough support to pose a serious electoral threat.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “With the main televised leaders’ debate set to take place tonight, the PCs and Doug Ford remain the favourites in this election. Their 13-point lead is still sizeable and comfortable enough and with little over a week left time may be running out for the opposition parties to close the gap. More comforting for the PCs is the wider leader they hold among those most likely to vote.

However, we do see a tightening and a shift in views towards both Ford and his opponents. The desire for change is growing, healthcare is rising as a ballot issue, and the PC dominance over the cost of living issue isn’t as large as it has been.

The key question for the Crombie and Liberals, who are now solidly in second place when it comes to popular support, is whether they can convince NDP and Green Party supporters to coalese around them to stop Ford’s re-election.

But that proves to be a challenge – at least based on our survey. When we look at the second choice preferences of NDP and Green Party supporters, there doesn’t appear to be enough at this moment to push Crombie over the line. Only 42% of NDP supporters, and 21% of Green Party supporters say the Liberals are their second choice. Even if all those people switched their support, the Liberals would still be 2-points behind the Liberals. To get ahead of the PCs, the Liberals need to not only consolidate every last Green and NDP supporter who puts the Liberals as their second choice but also convince some PC supporters to switch as well.

That’s a tough task, but not impossible. We’ll continue to track opinions and see whether tonight’s debate has any impact our media partner at the Toronto Star.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from February 13 to 15, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsProvincial Politics

Trump is helping Canadians find their common identity again.

In recent years we have seen distrust with institutions in Canada grow, a fraying sense of community between neighbors and a bit of an existential crisis among Canadians about what brings us together as, Canadians. But then Janaury 2025 came with a flurry of announcements from the United States that had us re-examining what it means to be Canadian.

Taking an interest in the idea of Canadian identity for some time, I asked some questions earlier in January (in field Janaury 22nd to 26th). Days later there were announcements of tariffs and the 51st state prompting many to question what it really does mean to be Canadian.

This release includes data from two waves of research that allowed us to measure, in real time, the impacts of these announcements on our collective identity. What we captured are big shifts in what makes us Canadian.

Janaury data is from an online survey fielded with n=2,205 gen pop adults in Canada from Janaury 22nd to 26th) and February data is from an online survey fielded with n=2,205 gen pop adults in Canada from February 5th to 11th).

Do we have an identity?

Perhaps the biggest shift we measured (and remember this shift is over a ten-day period) is the number of Canadians saying that there really is a Canadian identity. A few weeks ago in January 69% of Canadians said ‘right now, there is a strong Canadian identity’, including 30% who strongly agreed.

In just 10 days, the number surged to 79% in our latest survey. Also important to note- the surge is concentrated among those who ‘strongly agree’ meaning Canadians haven’t just changed their minds on this a little. Now 40% strongly agree with this statement. Perceptions have shifted a lot.

What makes us Canadian?

In their own words, Canadians believe our attitude is a defining feature of our identity. Asked as an open-end question, 17% say being polite and kind is a defining feature of Canadian identity, 15% say it’s our respect for diversity and inclusion. These features of our identity have remained consistent- before and after announcements south of the border.

What has increased however are feelings about togetherness and pride. Now, 10% include unity and community support in their definition of what it means to be Canadian- a notable 5-point increase from days before. There has also been a notable surge in national pride. Canadians are feeling more patriotic and they feel this from their neighbours too.

A stronger Canadian identity

Canadians truly are recognizing and feeling this surge in a uniting identity. In Janaury 29% of Canadians said our Canadian identity was getting stronger, 27% said there has been no change in the last couple of years, 38% said it was getting worse.

Today, the trend has shifted. Now 42% say our identity has gotten stronger, up 13 points in 10 days.

If we ask Canadians what’s driving this, a quarter say it’s directly related to what’s happening south of the border.

Back in January we also asked Canadians to evaluate the strength of different dimensions of our Canadian identity. How strong is our sense of community? Shared values? Strong democracy? Social services? Public institutions.

For each dimension, we saw a considerable increased in strength between Janaury to February.

Sense of community rose 9 points (from 54% to 63%), and strength of shared values rose 8 points (from 53% to 61%). Significantly more Canadians also believe we have a strong democracy, social services and public institutions. All around there is a swell of support for what it means to be Canadian and the institutions that make us Canadian- given the short time period and previous trends we have seen these are significant jumps.

While the jump is less than other dimensions- more Canadians also feel more connected to our sense of collective identity. At the end of Janaury, 80% of Canadians said they feel connected to a greater Canadian identity. Today this is at 84%- again a big shift in those who strongly agree with the statement.

UPSHOT

My colleagues have explored what this surge means for Canadians as consumers, but there are plenty more consequences for this surge in pride and a reconnection with a collective identity. As just one example, those who feel connected to a greater Canadian identity are far more likely to vote than their peers who don’t feel any sense of connection. A connection among those around us means we are more likely to believe in and participate in our democracy. A sense of collective identity can have positive impacts on us as individuals, but also on our communities as we have a stronger sense of duty and connection to our neighbours.

We will continue tracking our sense of identity as our relationship with the United States will undoubtedly evolve, and understand if the surge we experienced remains stable or continues to evolve as well.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadians residents from February 5 – 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ this new environment, that difference is more important than ever.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogPolitics

73% of Canadians Say Non-Profit and Co-op Housing Can Help Solve the Housing Crisis 

Part four of our series on Canada’s housing landscape focuses alternative housing solutions, including non-profit and co-op housing. This study surveyed 6,000 Canadian adults (18+) between September 26 and October 9, 2024, in partnership with the Co-op Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). 

This report highlights growing interest in non-profit and co-op housing as affordability challenges and the desire to have a stable place to live push Canadians toward considering alternatives to renting or owning. With the demand for alternative solutions rising, strong public support exists for government action to expand these housing options, signaling a shift beyond the private market. 

Top Insights 

  • Changing Perceptions: After learning more about non-profit and co-op housing, 73% see non-profit and co-op housing as a viable solution, citing affordability (57%), community benefits (46%), and long-term stability (45%). 
  • High Demand, Low Supply: 60% believe there isn’t enough non-profit and co-op housing in their communities, and 61% say increasing availability should be a top priority. 
  • Call for Government Action: 54% support tying federal funding to housing development, while 53% back direct government investment in new non-profit and co-op housing. 

Exploring Alternative Housing Options 

Nearly half (46%) of Canadians who do not currently own a home but aspire to do so indicate that they have considered alternative housing options in the past year. Interest is highest among younger Canadians aged 18-29 (50%) and 30-45 (51%), as well as those living in urban areas (50%). Among those exploring alternatives, 1 in 4 note that they have considered non-profit and co-op housing (24%).  

This growing interest reflects a shift in attitudes toward homeownership, particularly among younger and urban Canadians, recognizing that housing needs can be met in a variety of ways. Non-profit and co-op housing provide stable, permanent places to live, which is the most cited reason for wanting to own a home (56%). 

Strong Support for the Non-Profit and Co-op Models Exist 

While 78% of Canadians are familiar with the concept of non-profit and co-op housing, 64% admit to lacking a detailed understanding of how these housing models operate.  

After learning more, 73% see these models as viable solutions to the housing crisis. Supporters highlight several key benefits, including affordable housing options for low- and middle-income individuals (57%), fostering community and shared responsibility (46%), and promoting long-term stability (45%). Notably, 43% believe it reduces the influence of corporate landlords and limits real estate speculation, highlighting its potential as a tool for creating a fairer housing market. 

Among aspiring homeowners, the role of education becomes even clearer. A third (32%) say they would be more interested in non-profit and co-op housing if they had more information, and 41% express openness to non-profit and co-op housing while exploring other alternatives. Only a small minority (13%) feel that additional information would not impact their interest. 

Canadians Call for Increased Availability of Non-Profit and Co-op Housing 

60% of Canadians feel there are not enough non-profit and co-op housing options available in their communities. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among residents in Quebec (68%), British Columbia (61%), and Atlantic Canada (60%), highlighting the perceived scarcity of these housing solutions across the country. 

Reflecting this concern, 61% of Canadians believe increasing the number of non-profit and co-op homes should be a high priority. This view is especially strong among Liberal Party of Canada (67%) and NDP (70%) supporters, along with 55% of Conservative Party of Canada voters. The support highlights a growing recognition of the urgent need for more affordable and accessible housing options nationwide. 

Canadians See Non-Profit and Co-op Housing as Part of the Solution and Call for Government Action 

While 34% of Canadians believe non-profit and co-op housing should be a primary focus in providing affordable options, a larger share (43%) think it should complement other market-based solutions. Only 10% see it as an unviable option for most people, indicating broad recognition of its role in addressing housing challenges. 

Public opinion suggests a strong desire for government action to expand non-profit and co-op housing, with a focus on strategic funding and policy support. Over half (54%) want federal funding tied to provincial and municipal housing commitments, while 53% back direct government investment in new non-profit and co-op housing developments. Prioritizing public land (50%) and offering provincial loans and grants (48%) are seen as key strategies to increase this type of supply, while another 48% believe the federal government should empower non-profits and co-ops to purchase private rental properties. The broad support reflects a growing belief that market-driven solutions alone won’t resolve the housing crisis, and that government-led initiatives will be essential to scaling up non-profit and co-op housing across Canada. 

The Upshot 

As housing affordability remains a pressing concern in Canada, a growing interest in non-profit and co-op housing signals a shift in how Canadians think about homeownership. Overall, these findings highlight an urgent need for action.  

With strong public support for expanding non-profit and co-op housing, governments must invest in solutions, from tying federal funding to housing commitments to making public land available for non-profit and co-op developments. Market-driven solutions alone won’t solve the crisis – proactive, government-backed initiatives are essential to ensuring more Canadians have stable, affordable housing through non-profit and co-op options. Greater awareness and understanding of the non-profit and co-op housing models should underpin these efforts. This presents a clear opportunity for policymakers, housing advocates, and community organizations to work together, to educate the public on these models by bringing them to life through dedicated investment and initiatives. 

The path forward is clear: Canadians are open to solutions beyond the traditional housing market, but they need better access, stronger government action and more information to make non-profit and co-op housing a viable reality. With rising demand and widespread support for policy-driven expansion, this presents an opportunity to rethink how housing is built, funded, and sustained in Canada. By bridging the funding, supply and awareness gap, long-term affordability can be provided through the growth of non-profit and co-op housing. This can play an important role in creating a more stable and equitable housing future for Canadians. . This can play an important role in creating a more stable and equitable housing future for Canadians.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 6,000 Canadian adults from September 26 to October 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.27%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada).

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ this new environment, that difference is more important than ever.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian PoliticsHousingPolitics

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 19 as Liberal vote share rises at the expense of the NDP

From February 5 to 11, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,000 adults.

For this survey, we did something a bit different when it comes to our assessment of vote intention. We used an experimental randomized split sample approach and asked a random third of our sample one of three ballot questions. All of the other questions in our tracking were asked in the usual way.

We find that the horserace continues to tighten. At the same time, we see an increase in those open to voting Liberal and a decrease in the Conservative accessible voter pool. Those believing the Liberals deserve to be re-elected is up as are negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre.

Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops as Liberals gain 7 points in a month.

If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 27% would vote Liberal, and 15% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 7% nationally, while the Greens are at 3% and the People’s Party at 2%. Since our last survey two weeks ago, the Conservatives are up 3, the Liberals up 5 while the NDP is down 3.

We doubled checked and ran another survey

Given how these results differ from some recent polls, we conducted a rapid survey with our core political questions from February 11 to 12, 2025 with an entirely new sample to see whether this survey was an outlier or different than what we would find if we did another survey. The results of that survey are all within the margin of error of the earlier survey. It finds the Conservatives with 45%, the Liberals at 25%, and the NDP at 17%.

Now back to the larger survey conducted from February 5 to 11:

Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows slightly, although not as much as it has in the past suggesting that Liberal voters are becoming more engaged and enthusiastic about voting. Today, the Conservatives have 48% among the most likely voters compared with 26% for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15%.

Regionally, the Conservative vote share is down in Atlantic while holding fairly steady in BC and Ontario. In Quebec, we have the BQ at 34%, the Conservatives at 29%, and the Liberals at 28%. Note, due to the split sample approach, the regional sample sizes are much smaller.

When we combine B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada and look at the trend over time, we find the Liberal share in those provinces rising substantially over the past month.

Today, 30% would vote Liberal in those provinces up from 22% in mid-Jauary compared while 46% in those provinces would vote Conservative. This is the highest Liberal vote share in those provinces since we started tracking these three provinces combined a year ago.

When we compare current vote intention with past recalled vote (in 2021), we find that more than 89% of those who voted Conservative in 2021 say they will vote Conservative again. That is still a very high retention rate. In contrast, only 60% of past Liberal and NDP supporters say they would vote for their respective parties today (although the Liberals are doing better at bringing home past supporters than a month ago when it was 50%). The NDP is losing about equal shares of its past support to the Conservatives and Liberals, while 15% of past Liberal supporters say they would vote Conservative today.

The retention of past Conservative vote and the continued attraction of past Liberal and NDP voters is why we continue to see the Conservatives still well ahead of the other parties.

Carney vs. Freeland: Who performs best?

To assess the potential impact of either Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland becoming Liberal leader, we asked the other two thirds of our sample how they would vote with their and the other party leaders named in the ballot question (our usual ballot question does not include party leader names).

We think this is a more effective way of testing the potential effect of the leadership change than asking a similar question later in the survey because it ensures the respondent is asked the question cold, without having been asked how they would vote in another scenario.

This approach finds Mark Carney would perform substantially better than Chrystia Freeland.

When Mark Carney is named as Liberal leader and voters are asked how they would vote in a spring election, 45% would vote Conservative, 28% Liberal and 12% NDP. When Freeland is the leader, the Conservative lead is much larger, with the Conservatives at 45% and the Liberals at 21%. The NDP does much better with Freeland as leader at 20%.

This exercise suggests that the Conservative vote at the moment is resilient to whoever is leader of the Liberals, but that the NDP is far more likely to lose support with Carney rather than Freeland as leader.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

Other Core Measures

Beyond vote intention, we also have the benefit of seeing whether our measures are shifting. Often times, it is these measures that are leading indicators of a future shift in vote intention.

In the case of the direction of country, we see no change in the overall mood of the country. 24% think the country is headed in the right direction, marginally higher than two weeks ago.

The federal government’s approval rating has also improved. Today 27% of Canadians approve while 56% disapprove. Disapproval is down 8 points since mid January and is lower than at any point in 2024.

Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also marginally improved. 23% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister compared with 58% who have a negative view for a net favourable of -35.

Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have become more negative. Those with a negative impression of Pierre Poilievre have reached a new high in our tracking with 42% have a negative view compared with 39% who have a positive view. Positive impressions are fairly static but his negatives are 6-points higher than they were at the end of 2024.

To reinforce how important leader impressions are to vote intention, 85% of those with a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre say they will vote Conservative whereas only 5% of those with a negative impression say they will vote Conservative.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s image continues to be more negative than in the past. 29% hold a positive impression, while 40% have a negative view for a net score of -11.

Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative and have become more negative since the tariff threats and his musings about Canada becoming the 51st state. Almost 7 in 10 Canadians have a negative opinion of him, while 18% view him positively. President Trump’s negatives have increased 11-points since early December.

Impressions of Trump are almost entirely negative among Liberal (84%) and NDP (91%) supporters. But among Conservative supporters, 31% have a positive impression of Trump, 17% neutral, and 48% negative.

Desire for Change Softens

One of the bigger shifts we see is in those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Today, 19% say the Liberals deserve another mandate, up 8 points since mid-January and up 3 since our last wave. In contrast, 50% continue to say they want a change in government and feel there is a good alternative. That has stablized after a drop over the past few months.

Among those who want change and feel there’s a good alternative, 62% would vote Conservative, 15% NDP, and 6% Liberal. 7% are undecided.

Among those who want change but don’t think there’s a good alternative, 23% would vote Conservative, 23% Liberal, 12% NDP, and 11% BQ. 25% are undecided.

Shift in Accessible Voter Pools

Perhaps the biggest shift in our tracking comes when we ask people whether they would consider voting for each federal party.

Today, 50% of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, down 1 since last wave and down 5 since mid-January. In contrast, the Liberal accessible voter pool is up 4 in two weeks and has risen 10 points since mid-January. 39% are open to voting NDP and 28% are open to voting Green. In Quebec, the BQ’s accessible voter pool is down 5 points since late January.

Who is going to win the next election?

About half of Canadians continue to believe the Conservatives are going to win the next election but it is down 10-points since mid-January. In contrast, 20% think the Liberals are going to win, up 3 from last wave and up 10 since mid-January.

The Issues: Donald Trump is now the #2 Issue in Canada

Finally, we see a big change in the top issues that voters say matter to them. The cost of living remains in the top spot (62%) but it is down 4 points from two weeks ago. Donald Trump and his administration has jumped 16-points into second with 42% saying it is one of their top three issues. Healthcare, housing and the economy roundout the top four.

When we ask people who selected an issue in their top 3 which party they feel is best able to handle that issue, the Conservatives have big leads on immigration, crime, the economy, the cost of living, job security and unemployment, and housing. They are tied with the Liberals and NDP on healthcare.

The Liberals have a 9-point among those who say Trump and his administration is a top issue – an issue that has grown in salience over the past few weeks. The Liberals also lead the two other main national parties on climate change.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “There is clear evidence in our polling that the opinion environment in Canada is shifting. While the cost of living remains in focus for most people, Donald Trump has become the second more cited top issue and has come to define so much of what people are talking about. With Justin Trudeau’s exit only a few weeks away and the spectre of more tariffs possibility coming, Canadians are increasingly asking themselves which political choice is best able to deal with the impact and consequence of Trump’s threatening posture towards Canada.

However, we do not see a competitive political environment. The Conservatives continue to have a large lead in vote intention and while Pierre Poilievre’s negatives have risen, far more people have a positive impression of him than any other leader. When we ask Canadians about their views towards Mark Carney, he is viewed more favourably than negatively with 34% saying they have a positive view and 17% with a negative one. However, he also remains largely undefined in people’s minds and so there is still a lot we don’t know about how people will react to him once they get to know him better.

But it is clear that the mindset of much of the public has shifted. Older Canadians, especially Baby Boomers, are fully engaged in the drama being created by Donald Trump. Boomers, and those with higher levels of education seem to be shifting their political preferences more than other Canadians at this point. Whether it is because they are paying closer attention to the news, or whether because they feel more threatened by Trump, they are ripe for persuasion by the Liberals.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this poll is the weakness of the NDP and Jagmeet Singh. We have consistently measured the NDP in a narrow band between 17% and 20% for the past three years. But only in the last two weeks have we seen their vote share drop to its lowest level in our tracking. And when we include Carney’s name into the mix, their vote drops even further to 12%.

Overall, our read of the opinion landscape still favours the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. They have managed to hold onto most of their past supporters while still converting a sizeable portion of Liberal and NDP voters. Unless their voter coalition splinters, it will be hard of their opponents to make significant gains beyond what we have measured thus far.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

How Donald Trump Is Reshaping Canadian Consumer Behaviour

Consumer behaviour is shaped by a myriad of factors—price, quality, convenience, social proof—but one of the most powerful drivers is emotion.

When people feel strongly about an issue, they often vote with their wallets, rewarding or punishing brands and products in direct response to their views and values. Today, Canadian consumers are in the midst of an emotional, politically charged moment, and this is having a tangible effect on how and where they shop.

At Abacus Data, we’ve been tracking these shifts in sentiment closely. We wanted to understand how Canadians’ feelings about President Donald Trump and his policies translate into concrete actions—and the results are striking. Our latest research points to a rapidly growing desire among Canadians to buy local, and in some cases, to avoid American products entirely. It’s not just talk: 42% of respondents say they will “absolutely do everything” they can to avoid buying products made in the United States or from American companies.

While boycotts or “buy local” movements aren’t new, the current surge reflects a sense of personal conviction that’s animated by real-time political and cultural events. The data tell us that 84% of Canadians surveyed say they have considered buying more Canadian-made products in the past few days alone, while 34% have cancelled a trip to the U.S., and 32% have either cancelled or seriously considered cancelling streaming services owned by American companies. This uptick in conscious consumerism stems from a desire to send a clear message: Canadian shoppers want to support homegrown brands and manufacturers they see as reflecting their values.

Interestingly, many Canadians aren’t always sure which brands are truly Canadian. Our research shows that 67% think Tim Hortons is Canadian, 68% believe Molson remains a Canadian company, 41% believe Boston Pizza is Canadian, and 57% see Dollarama as homegrown. The reality behind corporate ownership and supply chains can be far more complicated.

In the same vein, perceptions about where our food comes from are equally hazy. Forty-two percent think most packaged food in Canadian grocery stores is made in Canada, while 40% believe this is false—showing a genuine knowledge gap and a chance for brands to educate consumers.

This environment poses both challenges and opportunities for marketers. If you’re an American-owned or American-identified brand selling in Canada, you need to think carefully about how you communicate your local connections. Are you sourcing Canadian ingredients? Do you employ Canadians in a meaningful way? Are you contributing to local communities? Transparently sharing these details can help mitigate negative perceptions tied to your U.S. origins.

On the flip side, Canadian brands should seize this moment to highlight their roots, proudly proclaiming how their supply chains, partnerships, and workforce bolster the Canadian economy.

Moreover, the emotional dimension of consumer choice is not something to overlook or minimize. This is where traditional usage and attitudes studies can fall short. Yes, you still need to understand how consumers use your product and how they feel about your brand’s performance. But in times of political upheaval, it’s also critical to grasp the broader societal issues that shape how Canadians perceive you—and how willing they are to support you.

At Abacus Data, we’re increasingly incorporating questions about political identity, cultural values, and current events into our market research. We find it offers richer insights into the emotional and moral underpinnings of purchase decisions, and allows brands to respond with more empathetic, resonant marketing strategies.

Donald Trump has stirred a wave of Canadian nationalism and pride that is rapidly changing the retail and consumer landscape. People want to buy Canadian-made products, they want to reward companies that reflect Canadian values, and they have become more inclined to punish companies they see as tied too closely to the U.S. market or political sphere. Brands would be wise to keep a close eye on this trend, clarify their origins, and adapt their messages to speak to both the head and the heart of Canadian consumers.

Above all, if there’s one key takeaway, it’s that market research must evolve alongside consumer attitudes. Understanding the political and emotional triggers that spark changes in shopping behaviour can be the difference between winning over newly fired-up Canadians or watching them walk away. And in this new environment, that difference is more important than ever.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian PoliticsConsumer BehaviourPolitics

Ontario Election 2025: A Stable Race with Some Dynamic Undercurrents

From February 4 to 6, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our second survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.

Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites to be re-elected but has been some notable shifts in other measures.

The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to lead, with 37% support among all eligible voters—a slight dip of two points since late January. The Ontario Liberals hold at 19%, while the New Democrats (NDP) see a modest two-point gain, rising to 17%. The Greens remain at 4%, and 20% of voters remain undecided.

Among committed voters, the PCs stand at 46%, a one-point decline, while the Liberals (24%) and NDP (21%, +2) remain relatively steady. Notably, when looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs gain further ground, rising to 49%, with the Liberals and NDP statistically tied (23% vs. 22%). This suggests that the PCs continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.

Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in key battlegrounds. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they sit at 52%, a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%) and the NDP (17%). They also hold the advantage in southwestern Ontario (42%) and eastern Ontario (44%). Toronto proper remains more competitive, with the Liberals 10-points behind the PCs (40% to 30%) and the NDP at 21%.

Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (50%) but face a more competitive race among women (42% PC, 24% Liberal, 24% NDP). Age dynamics reveal a clear generational divide: among voters aged 18-29, the NDP is stronger and statistically tied with the PCs (31%), while the PCs dominate among those over 45. The Liberals, meanwhile, draw relatively even support across all age groups but fail to break through in any one segment.

Party Leader Impressions & Best Premier

Premier Doug Ford’s net impression rating has declined slightly, with 37% of Ontarians holding a positive view of him (down four points), while 39% view him negatively (up two points). His net approval now sits at -2. Despite this, he remains the most recognized leader in the province, while his rivals continue to struggle with visibility.

Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie’s negatives have ticked up (now at 35%, up one point), though more Ontarians are now aware of her, with fewer respondents saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion. NDP leader Marit Stiles sees a slight improvement, with her net impression rising to +1 as more voters become familiar with her. Green leader Mike Schreiner’s net impression has declined slightly (-3), though he remains the most neutral leader in the eyes of the public.

Doug Ford remains well ahead of the other party leaders who preferred Premier, although the gap has closed slightly over the last two weeks.

At the same time, we also see the provincial government’s approval rating dropping over the past two weeks.

The Issues

The issues voters want to see discussed during the campaign have not changed at all since our first survey. Affordability, housing, and healthcare dominate with Trump’s tarrifs and the economy rounding out the top 5.

When it comes to the issues that matter most, the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold the advantage. They lead on every major policy issue, but their most significant strengths are on economic management and dealing with the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs (35-point lead over the Liberals).

Ford’s PCs are seen as the best party to handle economic growth and job creation (38%) and managing the cost of living (33%). In contrast, only 18% believe the Liberals would be better at handling affordability, while 19% prefer the NDP. Even on healthcare and education—issues traditionally seen as opposition strengths—the PCs hold narrow leads, though these files remain more competitive.

Hot Mic: Will Ford’s addmission of supporting Trump hurt?

Doug Ford’s hot mic moment expressing support for Donald Trump appears to have little immediate impact on his core supporters—40% of PC voters say it makes them more likely to support him, while 51% say it has no impact. Only 9% of PC supporters (and 3% of the electorate) say they are less likely to vote PC.

For NDP and Liberal supporters, the reaction is predictably negative, with about 60% saying it makes them less likely to vote for Ford.

The key question is whether this becomes a lasting liability, particularly with the Ontario Liberals preparing to run attack ads highlighting the comments. Telling voters that Ford praised Trump is one thing—showing them footage of him saying it is another entirely. Our next survey will reveal whether this moment fades or sticks, potentially shifting undecided voters and soft PC supporters.

Desire for Change Edging Up

As often happens over the course of an election campaign, we are seeing the number of people who definitely want to see a change in government rising.

The latest survey finds that 52% of Ontarians say it is “definitely time for a change in government,” a four-point increase since late January. However, historical comparisons suggest that this figure, while notable, does not yet indicate the PCs are in serious trouble.

Additionally, only 21% say Ford and the PCs “should definitely be re-elected,” while 16% say they would prefer a change but don’t see it as a priority. This suggests that while there is a growing appetite for change, the opposition has yet to consolidate enough support to pose a serious electoral threat.

Standing up to a Bully or Hosting a Party?

A series of lighter questions in the survey offer insight into how Ontarians perceive their leaders beyond traditional policy metrics. Ford is seen as the best leader to host a party (35%), sit beside on a long flight (29%), and—perhaps most importantly—stand up to a bully (50%). These attributes reflect a perception of Ford as a strong, relatable, and resilient figure, qualities that have helped solidify his political brand.

In contrast there is far more uncertainty around who would best put out a kitchen fire or give advice on investing money suggesting that many Ontarians don’t think Ford would be good at those but don’t know enough about the opposition leaders say if they would be better. This question underscores the familiarity advantage that Doug Ford has over the other party leaders.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “As Ontario inches closer to an election, the question remains: what will define the campaign? For now, the immediate economic threat posed by Trump’s tariffs appears to have eased, opening the door for other issues to take center stage. If the election remains focused on affordability and economic management, Ford and the PCs will be well-positioned to win. However, if healthcare, education, or broader questions of government competence become dominant themes, the race could tighten.

In the period they have left, either Bonnie Crombie or Marit Stiles have to do a few things to have a shot at winning this election. They have to increase the desire for change and consolidate those change voters around their party. Right now, neither of those two things are happening.

There may not be enough time or the right set of issues to achieve this.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 4 to 6, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsProvincial Politics