Abacus Data Snap Poll: Reaction to the English Leaders’ Debate
At 8:30 p.m. Eastern, as the English‑language leaders’ debate was close to wrapping up in Montréal, our team at Abacus Data pushed a national, English‑only survey into field. Within roughly ninety minutes we captured responses from a representative sample of 1,200 Canadian adults.
We asked every participant whether they had watched “all or most,” “some,” or “a little” of the debate, or not at all, and we analyse results through that lens. But the time‑zone spread, the English‑only questionnaire, and rapid turnaround all argue for caution: the numbers are instructive, not definitive. Still, they showcase how quickly the Abacus Data team can move to capture reaction to an important event like tonight’s debate.
In total, 602 people in our sample said they watched at least a little of the leaders’ debate.
Overall, as of 10:00pm ET, 51% of Canadians said they watched at least “a little” of the debate, and 39% claimed to have seen “all” or “most” of it. Somewhat surprisingly, there wasn’t a big difference in viewership by age. 36% of those aged 18 to 44 said they watched at least some of it, 37% of those aged 45 to 59, and 45% of those aged 60 and over said they watched some or most of it.
Of those who watched, traditional television still dominated: 64% caught the debate on a conventional TV feed, compared with 19% who streamed it online, 13% who streamed through social media, and 3% who listened on the radio.
First impressions: who shone, who stumbled
When we asked debate viewers whether each leader left a positive, neutral, or negative impression, the verdict tilted toward Mark Carney. Fully 59% rated his performance positively compared with 53% who felt the same way about Pierre Poilievre. 41% felt Jagmeet Singh left them with a positive impression while 25% felt the same way about Yves-Francois Blanchet.
In contrast, 22% said Carney’s debate performance left them with a negative impression compared with 30% for Poilievre and 35% for Singh. Taken together, the net impact on impressions for Carney is +37, +23 for Poilievre, and +6 for Singh.
The split views hold when we ask viewers who they felt did the most to win their vote. 43% said Poilievre did the most to win the vote followed closely by Mark Carney at 40%, a statistically tie. 11% felt Singh did the most to earn their vote with 2% picking Blanchet and 5% saying none of them did.
84% of Liberal voters said Carney did the most to earn their vote while 90% of Conservatives felt the same way about Poilievre. Among NDP supporters, 65% felt Singh did the best, followed by 16% who picked Carney and 13% who picked Poilievre.
When we ask who did the most to “lose your vote”, 29% picked Poilievre, followed by 21% who picked Carney. Singh was third at 17% and Blanchet was at 13%. 20% said none of the leaders did the most to lose their vote.
Did minds actually change?
Debate nights rarely flip the race, but they do shake the edges of the electorate. Just over seven in ten viewers told us the debate did not change how they intend to vote. Another 23% say it has made them “re‑think” their decision—essentially opening the door to persuasion—while only 4% assert the debate has made them change how they plan to vote. Among those who say they debate made them rethink or change their vote, current vote intention is: Liberal 43%, Conservative 41%, NDP 13%, Green 3%. Among those who say they debate did not change their vote, vote intention is Conservative 47%, Liberal 44%, NDP 7%, Green Party 1%, and People’s Party 1%.
Expectations versus reality
Heading into tonight, our pre‑debate survey found that Canadians thought Carney was more likely than Poilievre to “do best” the English debate, even though expectations for his showing in French were far lower. The early read is that both Carney and Poilievre likely met expectations and neither gained a significant advantage over the other.
The Upshot
If campaigns are marathons punctuated by sprints, tonight’s English‑language debate looks like a brisk jog that left the two frontrunners exactly where they started. Mark Carney produced the marginally warmer afterglow—59 per cent of viewers said he left them feeling more positive, versus 53 per cent for Pierre Poilievre—but the gap is well within the emotional noise of a political TV event. Equally important, neither leader repelled large swaths of voters: Carney’s net impression sits at +37, Poilievre’s at +23, a difference significant for bragging rights but not yet for ballot boxes.
The key metric for momentum is movement, and on that score the dial barely twitched. Just four per cent of viewers tell us they’ve actually switched their vote; another 23 per cent are “re‑thinking,” but their current preferences mirror the national horse‑race (among English speaking Canadians) almost exactly. In other words, the debate prompted reflection, not realignment.
Could the narrative change over the Easter weekend? Absolutely. Debates age in the after‑show analysis, clips shared on social feeds, and dinner‑table debriefs. Yet our first pass suggests the Liberals’ slim national lead survives intact and the Conservatives may not have found the breakout moment they needed.
Methodology
This survey was conducted with 1,200 English speaking Canadian adults from 8:30pm to 10:00pm on April 17, 2025, following the English-language leaders’ debate. A total of 602 people said they watched at least some of the debate. Respondents were randomly selected from a set of partner panels integrated through the Lucid exchange platform. These panels are typically double opt-in and are blended to reduce the risk of bias from any single source.
A probability-based sample of this size would carry a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Survey data were weighted to reflect the Canadian population by age, gender, education, and region, based on the latest census data. Totals may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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