Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked at 39% each.
April 6, 2025
As we enter the third week of the 2025 federal campaign—and just days after “Liberation Day” (April 2), when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs—our latest Abacus Data poll provides a snapshot of the race at its midpoint. The overall top-line numbers remain remarkably stable, yet beneath the surface we observe important shifts in voter enthusiasm, leadership impressions, and growing confidence in the Liberals’ prospects.
Liberals and Conservatives are tied nationally
For a second straight week, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied with 39% support each, followed by the NDP at 11%. No other party garners more than 6% of the committed vote. While this statistical deadlock might suggest a purely even contest, it can be deceptive in a first-past-the-post system; where each vote is located often proves more telling than the raw percentage. Even so, these top-line figures alone confirm neither party has managed to break away.
The NDP’s persistent struggles at 11% underscore a continuing trend of centre-left voters coalescing under the Liberal banner. Jagmeet Singh faces limited time to re-energize or alter that dynamic in the weeks ahead.
Although the raw numbers remain unchanged, Conservative supporters now say they are more likely to vote than Liberal partisans. Compared to last week, the CPC has nudged ahead on “definite voter turnout,” going from slightly behind the Liberals to surpassing them (75% vs. 71%). That gap is small, but it’s worth monitoring. An uptick in Conservative motivation could, in a tight race, tip certain ridings their way.
A closer look at the provinces reveals several noteworthy developments:
Atlantic Canada: The Liberal lead hovers near 20 points, reflecting a region largely comfortable staying with Carney.
British Columbia: Remains a near tie between the two major parties, with the NDP lagging behind but still holding some regional strongholds.
Ontario: The Liberals have opened a 6-point lead, up from around 3 or 4 points a week ago. If that margin persists or grows, it could significantly boost the Liberals in seat-rich areas like the 905 and GTA.
Quebec: The Liberals stay on top, but the Conservatives have moved into second place—10 points behind the Liberals but outpacing the Bloc.
Despite that surge in Conservative motivation, the Liberals continue to expand their accessible voter pool, which is now over 55% nationally. This includes majorities in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia who say they would consider voting Liberal. By contrast, the Conservative pool stands at 51%—a respectable figure but one that has not grown in recent weeks.
This broader pool translates into more routes to victory for Mark Carney’s Liberals. It means they can pull together the votes they need in regions where the Conservative appeal is lower or where the NDP is less able to mount a challenge. The Conservatives, for their part, retain a strong base but may find themselves locked out of seat-determining ridings if they can’t persuade more undecided or second-choice voters.
The Desire for Change & Expected Election Outcome
We continue to see 54% of Canadians “definitely” wanting a change from the Liberals, essentially unchanged from last week. At the same time, 22% strongly prefer keeping the Liberals in power. While the overall appetite for change remains substantial, public sentiment about the outcome of the election has shifted: 43% believe the Liberals will ultimately win, compared to 33% expecting a Conservative government. This 10-point gap in perceived inevitability has grown from just a few weeks ago, when many still envisioned a Conservative victory.
Leader Favourability and Perceptions
Mark Carney’s net favourability hits +15 (45% positive, 30% negative), up four points from last week. Carney’s appeal remains broad, with older voters, women, and Atlantic Canadians particularly positive. While still divisive, Pierre Poilievre’s net score has improved slightly to -4 (38% positive, 42% negative). This subtle climb indicates that some negative impressions may be softening among certain demographics, though Poilievre remains polarizing.
On preferred Prime Minister, Carney leads by five points (38% vs. 33%), a margin unchanged from the previous wave. Carney’s prime-ministerial appeal appears strongest in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, whereas Poilievre does best in the Prairies.
Carney vs. Poilievre: The Leadership Gap
On personal qualities, Carney surpasses Poilievre by 15 points on “finding common ground,” by 7 on “standing up to a bully,” and by 8 on “helping manage your household expenses.” However, his lead on “captaining a ship through a rough storm” shrank from seven points down to three, indicating that Conservative efforts to question Carney’s real-world crisis credentials may be resonating slightly.
Issue Ownership
We see little movement on the issues:
- The Liberals lead by 10 points on dealing with Trump, by 5 on growing the economy, by 10 on representing Canada internationally, and by 7 on unity.
- The Conservatives lead by 8 on reducing the cost of living and by 7 on housing, both consistent with Poilievre’s focus on affordability.
The Upshot: Advantage Liberal Continues
Our latest research confirms that this 2025 federal race remains close and intensely competitive, with neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives able to break out beyond the 39% mark in committed support. While the tie in raw numbers might suggest a stalemate, the Liberals benefit from a broader voter pool and a notable lead in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada—key battlegrounds that could determine seat outcomes. At the same time, higher turnout intentions among Conservative partisans illustrate a formidable CPC base still determined to bring about change. If that base continues to harden, the Conservatives retain a path to victory, even if it is growing narrower by the day.
The core debate shaping voters’ choices is as much about Canada’s economic future as it is about its role on the global stage. Economic issues—from housing costs to inflation—remain top of mind for many, especially younger and middle-aged Canadians shouldering mortgages and daily living expenses. Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, are pressing these affordability concerns hard, hoping to capitalize on the 54% of Canadians who “definitely want change.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s unpredictable moves, including the reciprocal tariffs first threatened and then selectively retracted, have sharpened anxieties around national security and economic stability. Mark Carney and the Liberals have seized on that uncertainty to present Carney as the best “captain in a storm,” a narrative that aligns well with his improving personal favourability and the perception that Liberals are stronger on foreign policy.
With just under three weeks left until Canadians head to the polls, engagement is high, and the political environment remains fluid. Either a resurgence of Trump’s trade threats could reaffirm the Liberals’ message of steady leadership, or a lull in U.S. tensions might allow cost-of-living concerns to return to the fore, enabling Poilievre to reassert his “time for a change” theme. Meanwhile, the NDP’s persistent 11% suggests Jagmeet Singh is struggling to draw progressives from Carney. Should any unexpected development—be it economic, international, or a campaign misstep—emerge in the next few weeks, those small but crucial blocs of undecided voters and soft partisans may yet tip the balance. Given the stakes and the heightened voter interest, this campaign is set to deliver a lively, unpredictable finish—and whichever leader proves most adept at framing the ballot-box question will likely gain the edge in shaping Canada’s political future.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from March 31 to April 3, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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