The Canadian healthcare system is heading toward a perfect storm—a “double demographic whammy” that will strain health and long-term care and dominate the political agenda for the next 5 to 10 years unless the problem is addressed.
This collision is driven by two inexorable forces: a rapidly aging population and a shrinking supply of family physicians and other healthcare professionals. Together, these trends will amplify healthcare scarcity, transforming it into the defining political issue for Canadians aged 45 and older, much as housing affordability has become central for younger Canadians.
In an increasingly complex and crowded information landscape, advocacy organizations, public affairs teams, and campaign strategists need to ensure their advertising and messaging truly resonate with the audiences they aim to influence. Getting it wrong means wasted resources, missed opportunities, and weakened impact. Getting it right can change minds, move hearts, and catalyze meaningful action. At Abacus Data, we offer advertising and message testing that serves as a crucial, independent audit—one that helps you determine if your creative will break through, engage your intended audience, and deliver the outcomes you need.
What We Do: Independent and Objective Message Testing
Our mission is to provide independent, data-driven testing of your ad concepts, messages, and creative strategies before you invest heavily in production or media placement. Unlike in-house research teams that can be unintentionally influenced by internal agendas or creative preferences, we serve as a neutral, third-party assessor. Think of our message testing as an impartial “audit” of your campaign’s creative approach.
We’re not here to pat you on the back. We’re here to help you understand if your idea works—or if it doesn’t—before it goes live.
This means we assess the strength of your messages, identify potential pitfalls, and uncover what truly resonates with your target audience. Whether you are testing television spots, digital ads, social media content, or print campaigns, our methodology ensures that you receive objective feedback grounded in robust public opinion research.
How We Do It: Rigorous Research That Reflects Your Real-World Challenges
At Abacus Data, our process starts by working closely with you to identify key objectives, target audiences, and the specific communication outcomes you hope to achieve. We know every advocacy campaign is unique, and we tailor our approach accordingly.
Discovery and Questionnaire Design: We begin by understanding your campaign’s goals, the strategic environment you operate within, and the audiences you must engage. Are you looking to motivate grassroots supporters, influence policymakers, or sway undecided voters? With clarity on these points, we design a comprehensive research plan that tests your messages or ads under realistic conditions.
Fielding the Survey and Collecting Data: We then field the survey to a representative sample of your intended audience. Using advanced sampling techniques and careful weighting, we ensure the data we gather reflects the demographic and attitudinal profiles you need to reach. Each participant sees the ad or reads the message in an environment that simulates how they might actually encounter it, giving you feedback that mirrors real-world reactions.
Analysis and Reporting: Once data collection is complete, our team dives into the results. We break down which messages stand out, which points fall flat, and what aspects of your advertising leave participants confused or disengaged. Our analysis doesn’t simply tally up “likes” or “favorable impressions.” Instead, we dig deeper to understand why a message resonates, which audience segments respond most positively, and how to refine your approach for maximum impact. The final deliverable isn’t a list of raw data—it’s a tailored report highlighting key insights, strategic implications, and actionable recommendations.
Why We Are the Best: Expertise, Independence, and Proven Results
At Abacus Data, we’ve built our reputation on delivering candid, evidence-based advice that helps our clients succeed. This starts with our team of seasoned researchers, each bringing extensive experience in public opinion research, political science, policy analysis, and communications. Led by Dr. David Coletto, our team is made up of senior researchers who have advanced degrees in political management, public affairs, and quantitative methods. Their diverse backgrounds ensure that you’re receiving the benefit of interdisciplinary thinking rooted in both rigorous academic training and real-world application.
But credentials are only half the story. Our independence sets us apart. We are not a creative agency, nor are we influenced by internal pressures to “make the ad look good.” We have no vested interest in validating your existing ideas—our sole focus is providing the most accurate, unbiased assessment possible. This independence ensures that when we say a message works, it’s because the data supports that conclusion—not because we want to protect anyone’s ego.
What to Do With the Research: Turning Insights into Effective Advocacy
Raw data only matters if it helps you make better decisions. With our advertising and message testing insights in hand, you’ll know exactly what next steps to take:
Refine Your Creative Concepts: Identify which elements of your ad or message resonate most strongly and which should be revised or removed. Armed with evidence, you can work confidently with your creative team to make adjustments that truly strengthen your advocacy.
Optimize Your Media Strategy: Our data can guide you on where, when, and how to deliver your messages. If younger audiences respond best to certain framing or a specific call-to-action, you can tailor the ad buy and creative approach to maximize that potential.
Support Internal Decision-Making: Present clear, data-driven results to your internal stakeholders and leadership teams, demonstrating which messages are backed by concrete evidence. This can help unite your team behind a shared creative vision and alleviate internal debates about subjective preferences.
Elevate Your Campaign’s Credibility and Impact: Confidently approach government decision-makers, partners, and supporters with messages proven to resonate. By showing them data that confirms your approach, you can bolster credibility, attract allies, and strengthen your advocacy position.
Ready to Get Started?
Don’t leave the effectiveness of your advocacy campaign’s advertising and messaging to chance.
Contact Yvonne Langen to set up a 15-minute initial consultation, and we’ll connect you with one of our senior researchers.
We’ll connect you with one of our senior researchers, who will listen to your needs, outline a custom testing plan, and begin turning your ideas into validated, data-driven messaging strategies.
In a cluttered communications landscape, having unbiased insights into what works and why is invaluable. With Abacus Data’s advertising and message testing services, you gain the confidence, clarity, and strategic direction needed to ensure your messages don’t just reach your audience—they connect, engage, and persuade them to take action.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From November 15 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults (18+) to explore public opinions on the federal government’s proposed emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, set to take effect by 2030. Results highlight a divided public on the federal emissions cap, with support generally split between those prioritizing climate action and those concerned about the economic impact, particularly in oil-dependent regions. The findings also highlight opinion challenges in balancing environmental goals with economic considerations, especially when it comes to balancing regional interests in the country. As the federal government moves forward with ambitious climate policies, these insights underscore the complex task ahead in building social license for the policy choices.
Awareness of the Emissions Cap
Overall, 50% of Canadians were aware of the emissions cap on the oil and gas sector announcement by the federal government. The level of awareness varies significantly by political affiliation and region. Awareness was highest among Conservative supporters (58%), and those in Alberta (59%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (57%). This lack of awareness highlights a broader, ongoing communication challenge faced by all governments trying to connect with audiences who are increasingly fragmented and harder to reach than ever.
Opinion on the Emissions Cap Announcement
Among those who are aware of the announcement, opinions are split – 32% of Canadians support the cap as a necessary action for climate change, while 32% oppose it, citing concerns about its negative economic impact. Further, 33% have mixed feelings, depending on how the policy is implemented. The support for the emissions cap is highest in Quebec (44%) and among Liberal (53%) and NDP (46%) supporters. In contrast, opposition is most pronounced in Alberta (45%) and among Conservative supporters (53%). These divisions reveal the challenging landscape the government must navigate to win broader acceptance of its climate policies at a point in time when most Canadians are focused on the economic pressures of their day-to-day lives.
Divided Opinions on the Impact of the Emissions Cap
Nearly half of Canadians who are aware of the announcement (47%) believe the emissions cap risks deepening divisions in the country by creating a stark contrast between environmental concerns and economic interests. This is especially true in Alberta, where 62% feel the cap will further divide the country, compared to only 40% of Quebecers and 39% of Atlantic Canadians who see it as a positive step for climate change. Politically, there is a fairly deep partisan split. Conservative supporters (68%) are most likely to view the policy as a source of division, while Liberal (54%) and NDP (44%) supporters see it as necessary for climate action. These findings highlight the difficulty of achieving national unity on climate policy, particularly in regions, like Alberta, with significant economic stakes in the oil and gas sector.
Political Divide on the Effectiveness of the Emissions Cap for Climate Goals
When it comes to the potential impact of the emissions cap on Canada’s long-term climate goals, many Canadians express skepticism due to the opposition it faces – 41% believe it will have some effect, but that opposition from key provinces will limit its overall effectiveness, while 21% feel the cap will have little to no impact because of this resistance. In fact, only 26% of those aware of the announcement believe it will still make a significant impact despite the pushback. Politically, Liberal supporters are most likely to see the cap as a significant move for climate action (43%), while NDP supporters (53%) are more cautious, believing the impact will be minimal due to the opposition. Conservative supporters, however, are overwhelmingly pessimistic, with the majority believing the cap will have little to no effect.
Looking for Balance
35% of Canadians who are aware of the emissions cap believe that the federal government can balance the urgent need for climate action with the concerns of oil and gas producing regions, without alienating significant portions of the population by providing more support for the transition to clean energy. Another 1 in 4 feel the government should focus more on national unity and less on divisive climate targets, while 26% support easing the burden on the oil and gas sector through incentives or subsidies.
These preferences reflect a political divide, with Conservative supporters (43%) emphasizing national unity, while Liberal (55%) and NDP (48%) supporters are more focused on transitioning to clean energy. This highlights the key challenge facing the government: how to reconcile the urgency of climate action with the economic realities of both Canadians in general and of oil-dependent regions.
Approaches to Balancing Climate Action and Regional Concerns
Economic concerns are the largest barrier to building support for climate action in Canada, with 54% of Canadians citing the potential impact on jobs and livelihoods. Conservative supporters are particularly concerned about the immediate economic impacts, with 62% identifying them as the primary obstacle. Beyond economic factors, 24% of Canadians point to political divides as a major challenge, and 22% highlight a lack of understanding about climate change, a concern especially strong among younger Canadians (18-29: 29%). These findings underscore the fact that to build broader support for climate policies, the current government will need to address both economic and informational gaps while also working to bridge political divides.
Strategies for Engaging Provinces in Climate Policy Implementation
Overall, 38% of Canadians believe the federal government can better engage with provinces by collaborating more closely on regional solutions and setting flexible targets. This view is particularly strong among Albertans, 43% of whom support this approach. Additionally, 21% of Canadians feel that targeted investments in energy diversification could help, especially among Liberal supporters (31%). Meanwhile, 20% support gradual changes that reduce the burden on the oil and gas sectors, a perspective held by 26% of Conservative supporters. This paints a clear divide in public opinion on how to balance climate action with regional concerns, emphasizing that for climate policies to be successful, they must be dynamic and adaptable. Solutions need to consider the diverse economic and political realities of each province, incorporating various perspectives to ensure broad support and effectiveness.
The Upshot
The federal government’s proposed emissions cap for the oil and gas sector for 2030 is a highly divisive issue in Canada, with political and regional divides shaping public opinion.
First, it is striking that, despite how much friction the emissions cap has created and the attention it’s received, only half of Canadians are aware of it.
While some see it as crucial for addressing climate change, others worry about its short-term economic impact, particularly in regions which are more reliant on fossil fuel industries. The challenge for the government is advancing climate policy while addressing these economic concerns.
For supporters of the cap, the focus should remain on pushing forward climate policies while providing support for regions impacted by the transition. By balancing climate goals with a clear plan to protect economic stability, supporters can strengthen their position and likely expand support by focusing on the need to address climate change while also alleviating economic pressures.
For opponents, the emphasis should be on addressing immediate economic concerns, particularly job security and the cost of living. There is an audience for advocate for gradual climate action that supports economic stability, ensuring that the transition to cleaner energy does not harm livelihoods. By addressing the economic realities of fossil fuel industries, opponents of this policy choice can balance the need for climate action with the economic priorities of their constituents, positioning themselves as protectors of jobs and economic stability.
Climate change remains one of the most divisive policy issues in the country. It divides Canadians across regional and political lines. As climate policy continues to impact the political landscape, leaders must navigate these divides, ensuring climate goals are met while protecting economic stability and jobs, especially in energy-dependent regions. Canadians are deeply aware of the long-term risks of climate change, but they are equally conscious of the essential role the energy sector plays in driving the economy, supporting employment, and impacting the cost of living. To be effective, any approach to climate policy must balance these competing concerns – ensuring that climate goals are met while safeguarding economic stability and livelihoods. Solutions must be dynamic, balancing the need for climate action with economic and social realities.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 15 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
About Abacus Data
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
“Canada’s financial institutions have been resilient and withstood external pressures that in other markets, like the United States and the UK, buckled under the pressure,” notes David Coletto, founder, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data. “Our banks and our financial system were able to hold it together. We can do things in Canada that they can’t do in other markets. We have the infrastructure in place.”
Polling from Abacus Data collected before the election shows that there was a clear connection between Nova Scotians who had a negative view of … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://signalhfx.ca/trudeau-lingered-in-the-minds-of-voters/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw3C4fPwGEHSpKDetalaVtiJ
Earlier this year we conducted a survey on behalf of Imagine Canada, exploring Canadians’ attitudes towards communities, businesses, and corporate social responsibility. Some key highlights from this research are below. To read the analysis, click here.
The following data is from an online survey with 1,500 adults in Canada, from September 6 to 11, 2024. The survey was conducted on behalf of Imagine Canada with the support of BMO.
As Canadians remain pessimistic about Canada’s future, they are left feeling as though the sense of community in Canada isn’t as strong as it could be. 52% rate the strength of their own community as excellent/good, 42% feel the same about the sense of community more broadly in Canada.
There is no one region of Canada that feels a stronger or weaker sense of community. Instead, a sense of community is strongest among older Canadians, then the youngest cohort (18 to 29), and only moderate among middle-aged Canadians.
Most Canadians weave their own definition of community with a diverse list of relationships, organizations and entities. Two-thirds plus say large businesses that operate in their community, charities/non-profits, small businesses, their neighbors, family and friends all collectively play a role in how they define community.
Younger Canadians are less likely to say businesses (large and small) are part of their definition of community. But altogether 44% of Canadians say businesses (big, small or both) are very important to their own community.
Not only do Canadians list a multitude of stakeholders in their definition of community, they are inclined to say all have a net positive impact to some extent on their community, including businesses large and small.
69% of Canadians say small businesses make their communities better. 4% say they make their communities worse.
41% of Canadians say small businesses make their communities better. 15% say they make their communities worse.
Canadians have even more favourable views towards businesses when they see them supporting and building resilient communities.
Over 80% of Canadians say they prefer to support businesses that give back to their communities, and a similar number like to see partnerships between businesses and nonprofits or charities.
UPSHOT
Canadians feel their communities can and should be stronger and more resilient. And to build back our communities Canadians want to see everyone involved, including businesses. Canadians value business involvement in communities, and are looking for a framework that ensures businesses have their best interests in mind when giving back.
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from September 6 to 11, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set partner panel based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Abacus Data is proud to announce the planting of a Smart Forest™ in partnership with Canada’s Forest Trust Corporation (CFTC). This initiative represents a significant step towards addressing one of the top concerns for Canadians: climate change. Together with CFTC, they are supporting the planting of diverse tree species and protecting them in one of Canada’s most impactful nature-based climate solutions—Smart Forests™. Designed for long-term sustainability, this partnership promotes the need for nature-based solutions in future-thinking businesses and organizations across the country.
Key Highlights of the Abacus Data Smart Forest™ Stewardship:
Initial Planting of 2,000 Trees: Abacus and CFTC are planting 2,000 trees – spanning an area equal to the size of 24 House of Commons Chambers – with plans for consistent annual growth through a program that will engage clients in supporting forests.
Significant Carbon Capture: The initial Smart Forest™ is projected to capture around 280,000 kg of carbon over its lifetime—equivalent to approximately 2,135 flights between Ottawa and Toronto. Boosting Biodiversity and the Economy: This forest will enhance biodiversity through the planting of diverse tree species, the creation of new healthy habitats, and the creation of jobs, supporting the Canadian economy.
Confronting Climate Anxiety: A recent poll by Abacus and CFTC indicates that 12 million Canadians experience climate anxiety. This collaboration underscores their commitment to addressing climate concerns alongside the growing health and safety risks from climate change. The Abacus Data Smart Forest™ exemplifies their dedication to organizational values and meaningful impact.
The Abacus Data Smart Forest™ is planted to have a lasting impact. “Together, we’re supporting nature and promoting the many benefits that a Smart Forest™ brings to the planet, people, and our collective prosperity,” said David Coletto, Founder and CEO of Abacus Data. “This partnership addresses the growing climate concerns of Canadians and demonstrates our commitment to meaningful action.” Gary Zed, Founder and CEO of CFTC added, “Abacus Data is a leading business in Canada, recognizing the necessity of collective investments in our planet to achieve tangible, long-term impact. We applaud their commitment and look forward to implementing innovative solutions to elevate the growth and impact of their forest.”
Businesses are encouraged to join Abacus in this mission to support the planet through the Smart Forest™ Stewardship plan, contributing to a sustainable future for generations to come.
ABOUT CANADA’S FOREST TRUST CORPORATION (CFTC)
Canada’s Forest Trust Corporation (CFTC) is a social enterprise committed to delivering an innovative nature-based climate solution to address our environmental commitments and demonstrate tangible impact by building and protecting Smart Forests™. Its solution offers a strategic approach to carbon storage and biodiversity enhancement, aligning with sustainability goals and reporting requirements.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
But first, a message from Abacus Data founder and CEO, David Coletto:
We love elections at Abacus Data. Exploring what people think and feel and how that impacts their behaviours at work, as consumers, and as citizens is at the core of what we do.
And so, with just two days left to go in Nova Scotia, we are excited to share the results from our final provincial election survey with you and show how opinions and intentions have shifted over the campaign.
In case you missed our big announcement at the beginning of the campaign: Abacus Data is proud to be investing in Atlantic Canada. We have opened an office in Halifax and Kelly Bennett has joined our team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada Lead.
Together, we will serve clients in Atlantic Canada with the same curious, thoughtful, and hospitality-inspired approach that has made Abacus the most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm in Canada.
To learn more about our investment and expansion in Atlantic Canada, click here.
Now to the survey results.
The results indicate that unless something fundamentally changes today or tomorrow, the Nova Scotia PC Party and Tim Houston are headed towards a landslide victory on Tuesday night.
PCs lead by 20-points over the NDP among all committed voters but that lead grows to 24-points among those who have already voted and tell us they are most motivated to vote.
Tim Houston’s PCs are at 48% followed by Claudia Chender’s NDP at 28% with Zach Churchill’s Liberal Party at 22%. Since the start of the campaign, the PC vote share is up 3 points, the NDP share is up 2 points, while the Liberal vote share is down 3. points We expect the NS Greens to get about 1% of the vote. Among all eligible voters in Nova Scotia, 20% say they are still undecided, down 5-points from the start of the campaign.
Among those who say they have already voted (turnout has been lower in advance voting than it was at this point in the 2021 provincial election) and those who say they are most motivated to vote (57% of our sample), the PCs are ahead by 24-points: PC 50%, NDP 26%, Liberal 23%, and Green 1%.
What is driving this highly likely PC Party re-election?
Despite NDP leader Claudia Chender having a lot of goodwill and the best net favourable rating of the party leaders, the incumbent PCs benefit from having a relatively popular incumbent leader, they lead on three of the four top issues (and both of the top two election issues), and the desire for change has not reached a level that is a serious threat to them.
Let’s explore each of these.
The Issues
The PCs and Tim Houston are seen as best able to handle three of the four top issues by more voters. On the top two issues – affordability and health care – they are well ahead of either of the main opposition parties.
Fixing healthcare, affordability and improving housing remain the top three issues likely to impact the way Nova Scotians vote in the provincial election. The salience of these issues has not changed much since the start of the campaign.
When voters who identify healthcare, affordability, housing and/or reducing taxes as their top issues are asked which party they think will be best able to manage those issues, the PCs finish first on three of the four top issues. They lead the Liberals and NDP by 19-points on “fixing healthcare”, lead the NDP by 11-points on “making life more affordable”, and lead the NDP by 28-points on “reducing taxes”.
Only on “improving housing and reducing homelessness” do the PCs slightly trail the NDP (34% to 29%).
The PCs also lead among those who identify “growing the economy and creating good jobs,” “managing population growth”, and “improving roads” as their top issues.
And the PCs are in fourth place on the party Nova Scotians who rate climate change and the environment as a top issue (the Greens lead on that issue).
The Leaders
Our final election survey also confirms that Tim Houston remains far more known than the other party leaders, even as the campaign enters its final days. 74% of eligible voters currently feel they have a very good or pretty good idea who the incumbent Premier is and what he stands for, remaining high overall and high in most segments.
Familiarity with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and NDP Leader Claudia Chender has improved a little bit since the start of the campaign, but remains much lower than it is for Tim Houston.
While the same proportion (48%) of voters have at least a pretty good idea of who Zach Churchill is (unchanged from the start of the campaign), there has been a 3-point decrease in those who say they don’t know much about him at all (21% to 18%).
For NDP Leader Claudia Chender, we see a similar change. Familiarity with Claudia Chender as a person and a leader is only slightly higher than it was when the campaign started (+3), but the proportion of those who don’t know her at all is down 6-points (28% to 22%).
One of the features of this campaign is that the opposition leaders have not been able to improve their familiarity with voters and the Premier, like any incumbent, held a big advantage when the campaign started and held that throughout.
When we ask Nova Scotians about their impressions of the party leaders, Tim Houston continues to be viewed positively by 41% of eligible voters (up 3 point since our first survey) and negatively by 29% (down 5 from the start of the campaign) for a net score of +12, representing an improvement since the start of the campaign.
In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +3 (down since the start) and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +21 (a slight drop). Very few Nova Scotians have a negative impression of Ms. Chender and although her positives almost match Premier Houston, she hasn’t been able to convert this goodwill into support (likely because of how the party is perceived to perform on the top issues mentioned earlier).
This set of results also confirms that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are well-liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -35 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -15 in the province.
Another interesting dynamic relating is the PC party’s appeal among voters who dislike Justin Trudeau and those who dislike Pierre Poilievre. The charts below show the relationship between provincial vote and views of Trudeau and Poilievre. It shows that the PCs have been able to attract a majority of those with a negative view of Trudeau while also attracting over 1 in 4 Nova Scotians who have a negative impression of federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
That broad (purple) coalition is a big part of the lopsided PC victory that is likely to happen on Tuesday. 32% of past federal Liberal supporters and 21% of past federal NDP supporters say they are or have voted PC in the Nova Scotia provincial election.
The Desire for Change
Incumbents everywhere in 2024 have seen their vote share decline. But in Nova Scotia, it appears that Tim Houston and the PCs will buck that trend.
In our first Nova Scotia election poll, 50% of eligible voters told us they definitely wanted to see a change in government in Nova Scotia. Today, that figure is still 50%. And those who definitely want to see the Houston PC government re-elected is holding steady at 21%. The opposition parties have been unable to increase the desire for change leaving the Houston PCs in a strong position. Compared with other elections where we have done polling, the desire for change in Nova Scotia is not much higher than it was at the start of the 2022 Ontario provincial election or the final weekend of the 2021 campaign.
But even more important, among Nova Scotians who say they have voted or are most motivated to vote, those who definitely want Houston and the PCs re-elected goes up to 28% while the definite change voter share only increases 2 points. This suggests that if turnout is lower than in the previous election (and advance voting is lower than last time), the PCs will have an advantage because the opposition has not galvanized the desire for change (which is similar to what happened in Ontario in 2022).
Even among those who definitely want to see a change in government, 13% of eligible voters in Nova Scotia still say they plan to vote PC, an increase of 4-points since the start of the campaign.
And the NDP and Liberals currently split the-solid-change-vote 36% to 28% for the NDP with neither party being effective in mobilizing change voters around one option. This vote split will further help the PCs win more seats in some places it wasn’t successful in 2021.
Tim Houston leads by 16 on “Best Premier”
When we ask Nova Scotians which of the party leaders they think would make the best Premier, Tim Houston continues to finish far ahead of the other party leaders. 38% pick the current Premier, 22% select NDP Leader Claudia Chender, while Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is third at 15%. Both Houston and Chender are up since the start of the campaign. And 24% are unsure.
Will Turnout Drop? Probably because most expect a PC win.
We expect voter turnout to be lower in this provincial election than it was in 2021 due to various reasons, including no online or telephone voting options, no voter cards telling people where to go to vote, bad weather on the last weekend of the campaign and perceptions of an uncompetitive election. As academic research has shown, the likelihood to vote is determined by several factors including the answer to four questions: Do I like politics? Do I have a duty to vote? Do I care about the outcome? Is it easy to vote?
At the end of the campaign, more than half of Nova Scotians believe that the PCs will win the provincial election, a six point increase from the start of the campaign. 12% think the Liberals will win and only 8% expect an NDP victory, despite more people saying they will vote or have voted NDP than Liberal. The low expectations of an NDP win can likely explain part of the reason why they have been unable to convert a popular leader into more support.
UPSHOT
According to Kelly Bennett: “Our final Nova Scotia election poll suggests that Tim Houston and the PCs will get the big mandate that they were hoping for when they decided to throw out the ‘save the date’ card and go with a snap election this fall, instead of waiting until the hazy days of next summer.
With just 48 hours left to go, the PCs continue to have a big lead on the other parties, making them very likely to win the election by a landslide.
Tim Houston and the PCs started the election with many advantages. They knew the date. They knew their positions and they were ready to go. They have also run a very disciplined campaign, promising Nova Scotians “lower taxes, more doctors and higher wages” over-and-over again – on the ground, on their signs, through social media, on TV and by radio. That consistency has paid off.
We also expect Claudia Chender and her party to be celebrating some wins on Tuesday night, with the NDP now likely to finish second and return to Province House as the Official Opposition. Our final poll suggests that the NDP has found some momentum in the last week, pulling six-points ahead of Zach Churchill’s Liberals and continuing to lead on the housing issue.
Chender will also finish her first campaign as party leader with high personal favourability – making her someone to watch now and into the future. While she could not consolidate the desire-for-change vote this time, she may have the personal qualities and skills that Nova Scotians want in their leaders.”
According to David Coletto: “As I have noted in previous analyzes of our polling, Tim Houston and the Nova Scotia PC Party are on the cusp of doing something very very few incumbents have been able to do in 2024 (and no national government globally has been able to do): get re-elected with a higher share of the vote than it received previous. They will not only survive “inflationitis” but actually find a way to thrive with it all around.
Tim Houston and the PCs took a chance when they called an early election that voters would not punish them for that decision but reward them for what they perceived as fairly effective governance and focus on the issues most Nova Scotians care about. Unless something fundamentally changes in the final two days of the campaign, that gamble will likely pay off.
Claudia Chender and the NDP should win more votes than the Liberals, but their campaign doesn’t seem to have been effective enough in convert the potential out there. Chender is well liked and the NDP’s accessible voter pool has grown over the campaign but they have not been able to break through and convert that goodwill – in part, I think, because not enough voters are convinced they have a better plan or can better handle the two big issues facing the province – affordability and healthcare.
For the NS Liberals, this campaign will end in disappointment. Not just because the Liberals will not form government but because Zach Churchill will finish the campaign the least well known of the three main party leaders and the party’s vote share is likely to fall to third for the first time since 2006.
It appears that this election campaign will end as it started. Tim Houston and the PCs will get a second mandate and it will be a larger, broader, and more secure one.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 645 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from November 21 to 23, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.8% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From November 14 to 19, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition, we ask our usual trackers only and all of the interviews we done following the U.S. Presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory. It’s our first survey after the U.S. election. We also asked Canadians to assess the impact of Trump’s election on Canada and which leader they believe would be best to manage the relationship with President Trump.
Most think the relationship with the United States will be worse under a Trump Administration.
Six in ten Canadians expect that Canada’s relationship with the United States will get worse following Donald Trump’s re-election. 1 in 4 think it will get much worse. In contrast, 17% think the relationship will improve while 24% think it won’t change.
Expectations are fairly consistent across the country and political groups although Conservative supporters are somewhat more likely to think the relationship will improve (27%) than Liberal supporters (17%).
When we dig into specific aspects of the relationship and outcomes, most Canadians think a Trump administration will create more economic uncertainty rather than more economic certainty.
A similar proportion expect there to be less action on climate change rather than more action on climate change. NDP and Liberal supporters more likely to believe this than Conservative supporters.
A larger majority (65%) believe that Trump’s victory will mean more tariffs and trade barriers rather than fewer tariffs and freer trade. Conservatives, Liberals, and NDPers all agree on this.
Views are more divided on whether Trump means better or worse defence and security cooperation. 40% think it will be worse while 26% think it will better. There is a difference of opinion between Conservative and Liberal/NDP supporters.
Most Canadians expect that immigration from the U.S. to Canada will increase because of Trump’s election. Only 16% expect there to be less immigration.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.
Trudeau and Trump: What is more important?
We asked Canadians which of two statements comes closest to their views? Whether Donald Trump’s dislike of and disagreement with Justin Trudeau and his government on many issues will hurt the federal government’s ability to protect Canada’s interest or whether Justin Trudeau and his government’s previous experience working with Trump will mean Canada’s interests will be well protected.
By a 3 to 1 margin, Canadians say Trump’s dislike of and disagreement with Trudeau will hamper Canadian interests rather than his experience with Trump being an assest. Even current Liberal supporters are split on this.
Which Leader has the Best Chance of Achieving Positive Outcomes for Canada with Trump?
So when we ask Canadians which leader has the best chance to achieve positive things for Canada with Trump, 45% pick Pierre Poilievre, followed by Justin Trudeau at 20% and Jagmeet Singh at 9%. 1 in 4 Canadians don’t know.
Not surprising that most current Liberals think Trudeau is best able to handle Trump and most Conservatives think Poilievre is best able to deal with it. But the percentage of Conservative supporters thinking Poilievre is better is higher than Liberals who feel Trudeau is best equipped. This suggests that Poilievre has a clear advantage if Canadians are considering who is best to deal with Trump when considering their preference in a future election.
When we ask who Canadians think Donald Trump would prefer to deal with as Prime Minister, the response is even more lopsided in Poilievre’s favour. 6 in 10 think Trump would prefer to work with Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister. Only 12% think he’d want to work with Trudeau. Even about half of current Liberal supporters think Trump would prefer Poilievre over Trudeau.
The political upside of a Trump victory for the Trudeau Liberals seems quite limited. For example, when we ask Canadians who they think is the greater threat to Canada’s long-term prosperity – Trump or Trudeau – more say Trump than Trudeau but the gap isn’t that large. When you include the proportion who see them both as equal threats – 54% think Trudeau is either more of or an equal threat to Canada’s propersity than Trump. And among current Conservatives (keep in mind they are head of the Liberals by 22 points in vote intention), 78% think Trudeau is either more threatening than Trump or an equal threat to Canada’s long-term prosperity.
Who are Canadians More Likely to Vote for? Someone who stands up to Trump or Someone who is best able to work with him?
Canadians are fairly split on what approach most appeals to them when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump. 42% say they are more likely to vote for someone who is best able to work with him while 39% say they would prefer someone who stands up to Trump.
Liberals lean towards someone who stands up to Trump while Conservatives prefer someone who can best work with him – although some supporters of both parties see the reverse as more attractive. This suggests that some combination of working closely and standing firm on some things is probaly the best approach.
NDP supporters are the most likely to say they will vote for someone who stands up to Trump (59%).
Finally, when asked if Trump’s election has caused them to reconsider who they might vote for, only 16% say it has. And when those 16% are asked who they are now more likely to support – 44% say Pierre Poilievre, 27% say Justin Trudeau, and 12% Jagmeet Singh. More evidence that Trump’s victory has not, at least right now, helped the political fortunes of Justin Trudeau or the Liberals.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Most Canadians are bracing for a potential second Trump administration with trepidation, fearing its negative impact on Canada’s economic certainty, immigration policies, and the broader bilateral relationship. Trump’s tumultuous first term left a deep impression on Canadians, shaping their expectations of what another term could mean for their country. Yet, rather than driving Canadians toward a domestic political alternative starkly opposed to Trump’s style, the prevailing sentiment is more pragmatic: Canadians are looking for a leader who can effectively navigate and defend Canadian interests under a Trump presidency.
This pragmatism underscores a vulnerability for Justin Trudeau. Trump’s well-documented animosity toward the Prime Minister looms large in public perception, with many Canadians doubting Trudeau’s ability to manage such a fraught relationship. In contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s more combative approach and clear willingness to stand up for Canadian interests resonate with those who see him as better equipped to handle a difficult U.S. leader. The data reveals that Poilievre’s perceived toughness aligns with the public’s desire for a defender on the international stage, even as they remain wary of Trump’s policies.
For the Liberals, a Trump victory offers little political upside. While their progressive values might contrast starkly with Trump’s, that juxtaposition doesn’t seem to translate into increased support. Instead, the Conservatives appear better positioned to capitalize on a second Trump term. As Canadians prioritize practical leadership over ideological purity, the outcome of the next U.S. election could bolster Poilievre’s case for leadership at home, presenting yet another challenge for the Liberals as they struggle to redefine their path forward.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from November 14 to 19, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
But the frustrations and anxiety caused by higher prices seem to be one significant common denominator — the factor David Coletto, the pollster at Abacus Data, recently dubbed “inflationitis.”
