With the election campaign now underway, one overarching question looms: is this a campaign about change and scarcity, or about security in a time of deep precarity?
Our latest polling points to a country wrestling with competing impulses—on one hand, a strong desire for a shift in direction; on the other, a fear of disruption in a period of uncertainty.
At the heart of these competing narratives is what voters identify as their top-of-mind issues. Topping the list, nearly half (45%) say that “Reducing your cost of living” is one of their two most important priorities. Next, a third (33%) highlight “Dealing with Donald Trump and the impact of his decisions,” suggesting that concerns about how American policy and political drama might spill over the border remain potent. “Improving Canada’s healthcare system” (20%), “Making housing more affordable” (19%), and “Growing the economy” (17%) round out the top five.
For many Canadians—especially those under 30—there is a clear sense that a rising cost of living and stagnant wages form a backdrop of scarcity. Among younger Canadians (18–29), 47% pick “cost of living” as a prime concern, while affordable housing also ranks high (28%), reflecting the squeezed conditions of those trying to find their footing in major urban centres. They are also 10-points more likely to rate the economy as a top issue than those over 60. By contrast, older Canadians (60 and over) remain attuned to both cost of living (38%), healthcare (27%) and the implications of Donald Trump (50%), particularly worries about threats to Canadian soverignty.
When we break it down by age and gender, we see further nuance. Younger women (18–44) are among the most likely to emphasize both affordability (53%) and healthcare improvements (22%). Meanwhile, older men and women (45+) are more inclined than their younger counterparts to choose “Dealing with Donald Trump” as a key factor. These gaps underscore how age and personal circumstances shape what feels urgent or potentially disruptive.
This tension between change and security is reflected in how respondents view the idea of keeping Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberals in power. A solid majority (57%) say “it is definitely time for a change in government,” with another 15% saying change would be nice but not paramount. Only about one in five (21%) strongly favours re-electing Carney, suggesting the Liberals face an uphill battle to convince Canadians that continuity is preferable to starting fresh.
Yet the vote intentions reveal a split anchored largely in the issues people care about most. Of those who prioritize “Reducing your cost of living,” nearly half (46%) lean Conservative, whereas 27% lean Liberal and 15% back the NDP. But for those who say “Dealing with Donald Trump” is paramount, over half (54%) indicate they’d vote Liberal, compared to only 26% Conservative. Among Canadians who focus on “Growing the economy,” the divide is similarly stark: 54% go Conservative, with 30% Liberal.
Put simply, if the ballot question becomes “Is your life getting more expensive, and do we need a fundamental change to fix it?” Conservatives and Poilievre win. If the question shifts to “Do we need a steady hand to protect Canada from Trump’s unpredictability (and the risks beyond our borders)?” then I think Liberals and Carney win.
In these early days of the campaign, each party will try to define the core issue. The Conservatives will hammer away on cost-of-living pressures, taxes, and economic frustrations, framing the election as a chance to uproot a tired government and restore a sense of fiscal and economic sanity.
Liberals, in turn, will invite Canadians to consider whether they can trust a change to an unproven leader (versus their experienced one) amidst the volatility of a revived Trump-era politics. For many, it comes down to whether the anxiety they feel is best addressed by turning the page—or by holding tightly to what they know in hopes of ensuring security in a time of global precarity.
This tug-of-war—change and scarcity vs. security and precarity—will shape the next few weeks of the campaign. Later this week, my colleague Eddie Sheppard and I will share some new data and analysis on the relationship between having a precarity mindset and vote.
As this data suggests, neither message is guaranteed to prevail. Canadians are listening carefully, weighing their personal experiences against the broader political climate, and looking for leadership that can both contain the everyday pressures at home and confront the potential tumult brewing beyond our borders.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians eligible to vote from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
At Abacus Data, we eat, sleep and breathe politics, and we’ve been keeping a close eye on what’s happening across the country as the 2025 federal election gets underway.
Today, we’re focusing on Nova Scotia – a province that’s known for its great hospitality, forestry, farming, and vibrant ocean economy.
We love Atlantic Canada! As you may have heard, we recently opened a new office in Halifax and are offering new and existing clients in the Atlantic region the same depth, quality and national experience that has made our company what it is today.
As part of our continued growth and investment in Atlantic Canada, we have established a new Nova Scotia omnibus survey, which we intend to run regularly, interviewing 600 adult Nova Scotians each wave. Below, you will find some of the highlights from our first Nova Scotia omnibus survey, plus some detailed analysis comparing how Nova Scotians feel about their province, the country, and the political choices ahead, with our latest national results.
Nova Scotians Want Change, But Not Always, in Every Way
As the 2025 federal election starts, Bluenosers – like all Canadians – are seeking change. According to our new Nova Scotia polling, just 31% of Nova Scotians think things in Canada are headed in the right direction, and an even smaller share (10%) think things in the World are headed in the right direction. These levels are about the same as we’re picking up in our national polls.
However, when Nova Scotians are asked to reflect upon the current state of affairs in their home province, they are slightly more optimistic, with 36% of Nova Scotians thinking things in the province are headed in the right direction and the same proportion (36%) thinking things are off-track, resulting a net neutral.
This difference is an important reminder that political feelings are often more complicated than they appear. One can be very frustrated with the state of the World, and Canada, but be perfectly okay with what’s happening in their province, region or neighbourhood. That’s something the federal leaders and their candidates should keep in mind as they meet voters on their home turf.
The fact that as many Nova Scotians ‘like’ as ‘dislike’ the direction of the province at this point in time is also pretty good news for Premier Houston and his government, as they continue to govern amidst the chaos of the second Trump presidency.
Two-thirds of Nova Scotians Certain to Vote
When asked about their federal voting plans, 67% of Nova Scotians say they will “definitely” cast a ballot in the next/current federal election. This level of engagement is slightly higher it is in our national polling.
However, in Nova Scotia, voting-certainty varies significantly by party choice. Right now, those who say they would vote Conservative or Liberal “if a federal election was held today” are slightly more committed to “definitely” voting than NDP supporters. 73% of committed Conservatives and 70% of committed Liberals say they are “definitely” going to vote, compared to 58% of committed NDP supporters.
This big gap suggests that the Liberals and Conservatives can more confidently rely on their Nova Scotia voter bases showing up on election day, whereas the NDP will need to spend more time and effort mobilizing their supporters in Nova Scotia, especially younger voters who have traditionally been more inclined to lean NDP but sometimes struggle with consistent turnout.
A Larger Liberal Pool in Nova Scotia
One of the most telling indicators of electoral-potential is a party’s “accessible voter pool” – in other words, how many people say they would consider voting for each political party.
In Nova Scotia, the Liberal Party of Canada has a substantially larger accessible voter pool than the other parties.
Right now, 61% of Nova Scotians say they are open to voting Liberal, compared with 46% for the NDP and 43% for the Conservatives.
Why does this matter? Because in a first-past-the-post system, even small increments of growth in a party’s accessible base can translate into big seat gains, especially in a province where close races can be decided by relatively few votes.
The Liberals enter this campaign with a broader potential foundation in Nova Scotia to build upon than the other parties.
And who’s in the current Liberal pool in Nova Scotia?
The current Liberal pool is a mix of 2021 Liberal, NDP and Conservative voters.
89% of Nova Scotians that would consider voting Liberal now say they voted Liberal in the last federal election, 69% of those that would consider voting Liberal now say they voted NDP in the last federal election, and 28% of those that say they would consider voting Liberal now say they voted Conservative in the last federal election.
Federal Voting Intentions: Carney’s Liberals are Starting the 2025 Campaign with a 10-Point Lead in Nova Scotia
Our new Nova Scotia polling also suggests that the Liberals are starting the 2025 campaign with a 10-point lead in the province.
Right now, the Liberals are at 44% in Nova Scotia. The Conservative are at 34%. The NDP is at 14%. The Greens are at 4%. And the People’s Party is at 3%.
Starting an election – with a ten-point lead is an advantage, but it’s not the only number to consider, especially at a moment in time like this one.
As our regular readers know, the public opinion landscape in Canada has been shifting. In just over two months, the Liberals went from 20% to 36% in vote intention nationally.
Also, it’s the Conservatives, not the Liberals, who have gained the most vote-share since the last election, when we compare the current vote shares to the way Nova Scotians actually voted in 2021.
According to our latest Nova Scotia numbers, Carney’s Liberals (44%) are starting the 2025 campaign with a vote share in Nova Scotia that’s two points higher than the vote share Justin Trudeau’s Liberals earned in Nova Scotia in the 2021 federal election (42%). Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are starting the 2025 campaign with a vote share in Nova Scotia (34%) that is five points higher than what Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives earned in Nova Scotia in the 2021 election (29%). And the NDP is starting the 2025 campaign with a vote share in Nova Scotia (14%) that is eight points lower than its actual vote share in 2021 (22%).
Among the group of Nova Scotians that are most likely to vote in this election (i.e., those who say they will definitely cast a ballot in this federal election), the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives narrows a bit, with the Liberals’ jumping up two points to 46%, and the Conservatives climbing four points to 37%, and the NDP’s share drops again, down to just 12%.
Leader Popularity: Carney, Poilievre, and Singh
When trying to explain why Carney’s Liberals currently lead in Nova Scotia, one big factor stands out: It’s Mark Carney’s personal popularity in the province.
Right now, forty-one percent of Nova Scotians have a positive view of the new Liberal leader, while 27% have a negative view, giving him a net favourable rating of +14.
By contrast, Pierre Poilievre’s net rating in Nova Scotia is -20, and Jagmeet Singh’s net rating in Nova Scotia is -6.
These results confirm that Mark Carney is much better-known and better-liked in this part of the country than he was just a few months ago.
For further context, we also asked survey respondents in Nova Scotia about Donald Trump, and only 11% of Nova Scotians have a positive view of U.S. president. While Trump’s not, of course, on the ballot in Canada, his threats will cast a long shadow over this election, especially if voters see or perceive any similarities between Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Trump-style politics.
When respondents are asked who they would prefer to see as Prime Minister, Carney leads Poilievre by 12-points in Nova Scotia, with 17% saying they are unsure – another advantage for the Liberals.
Gender Splits and Retention Rates in Nova Scotia
What role, if any, is gender playing?
Currently, Carney’s Liberals lead Poilievre’s Conservatives in Nova Scotia by a whopping 28 points among women, while the Conservatives hold a 7-point lead among men. This is a bit different that what we’re seeing in our national polling. A gender gap exists but it’s not this wide.
And when we compare how current political preferences match up with 2021 voting behaviour in Nova Scotia, we see the Liberals holding onto 75% of their previous voters, with 10% shifting to the Conservatives and 7% still undecided. The Conservatives retain 86% of their 2021 vote, with 6% going Liberal and 3% undecided.
The NDP, however, has lost more than a third of its previous support to the Liberals, hanging onto only about half of its last-election voters. This erosion highlights how steep a challenge the NDP faces in Nova Scotia (and likely other parts of the country), especially if it remains difficult for them to re-energize the voters who switched their support to the Liberals.
What Issues Are Driving the Conversation in Nova Scotia?
The issues that Nova Scotians care the most about are the same ones dominating our national polling. It’s the rising cost of living, followed closely by dealing with Donald Trump and his administration, healthcare, housing and the economy – in that order.
Right now, 54% of Nova Scotians identify the rising cost of living as one of two most important issues facing Canada and Canadians, and 45% of Nova Scotians identify Donald Trump and his administration as one of the two most important issues facing Canada and Canadians.
This provincial issues-set matches the national issues-set we have been picking up in our recent national polling, with Donald Trump and his administration moving quickly for the middle to the top of the list in recent months.
In terms of which federal party is best able to deal with these issues, the Liberals enjoy a 17-point advantage over the Conservatives in Nova Scotia when it comes to dealing with Donald Trump, a 7-point lead in Nova Scotia on healthcare, and a 7-point lead in Nova Scotia on the economy; and the Conservatives hold a slight edge on the rising cost of living and housing.
Interestingly, while the Liberals lead on healthcare and the economy in our Nova Scotia polling, the Conservatives currently lead on healthcare and the economy in our national polling.
Who is Expected to Win?
We also asked Nova Scotians who they think will win the 2025 federal election. 39% predict a Liberal victory, while 33% think the Conservatives will win, and 25% remain unsure.
The Upshot
As the 2025 federal election officially begins, Nova Scotia looks more like a Liberal stronghold than a battleground.
The Cost of Living vs. Donald Trump Much like elsewhere in Canada, the cost of living is the dominant worry in Nova Scotia this spring, and affordability issues are likely to remain at the centre of the 2025 campaign.
At the same time, Trump’s high profile in the province’s political consciousness cannot be overlooked, especially in a context where only 11% have a positive view of him.
Should the conversation during the election focus more on Trump than affordability, this will further advantage the Liberals. At least that’s what our current Nova Scotia and national polling suggests.
Carney’s Popularity and Poilievre’s Challenge As the 2025 campaign kicks-off, Mark Carney’s positive image is providing a strong anchor for the Liberal brand in Nova Scotia, and Pierre Poilievre’s net negative rating indicates that he has work to do convince voters that he is the right leader for this moment. While Poilievre still commands loyalty from most of his 2021 voters, expanding beyond his base might be critical if the Conservatives want to make gains in Nova Scotia and beyond.
The NDP’s Steep Decline The collapse in NDP support is one of the biggest developments in Nova Scotia and beyond. At the moment, it appears the Liberals are the only beneficiaries of this drop, making it even more challenging for the Conservatives to overtake the Liberals in key ridings. The fate of the NDP could change if the party pivots its strategy or if Jagmeet Singh manages to galvanize younger voters. Still, the data suggest an uphill battle ahead.
In only a few months, the federal political landscape in Nova Scotia has dramatically shifted, with the Liberals now back in the drivers-seat.
This could change, but for now, the 2025 campaign begins close to where the 2021 one ended.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 600 adult Nova Scotians over the age of 18 from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Our latest survey, completed between March 17 and 20 among 1,500 eligible voters, offers a detailed picture of the political landscape on the eve of the 2025 federal election call. The numbers reveal a competitive and fast-evolving race, one that combines the reassembly of old coalitions, erosion in others, and a level of voter interest that outstrips what we saw at this point in 2021.
At first glance, the top-line results show the Conservatives holding a narrow lead nationally at 39%, with the Liberals close behind at 36%, and the NDP trailing at 12%. However, as is often the case, these toplines mask significant movement in the underlying trends.
The Liberals have gained noticeable ground in key regions—especially Ontario and British Columbia—and now enjoy a large lead in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile, the NDP is hitting its lowest support level since Jagmeet Singh became leader, pointing to a significant loss of momentum at precisely the moment the campaign begins in earnest.
Vote Intentions, Regions, and Demographics
We see a number of regional and demographic patterns that are already reshaping the electoral map:
Ontario: The Conservatives and Liberals are essentially tied, although the gap has narrowed from previous polling. This suggests the Liberals have improved their position heading into the campaign, which is vital for either party’s path to victory.
British Columbia: The race is tightening. The Conservatives still hold a slight advantage, but the Liberals have gained ground, and the NDP is losing momentum. That sets up a dynamic three-way fight in many BC ridings.
Quebec: The Liberals hold a substantial lead over both the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives. As in 2021, a strong Liberal performance in Quebec could give them a decisive edge in seat counts, even if they lag the Conservatives slightly in the national popular vote.
Atlantic Canada: The Liberals also enjoy a considerable lead here, continuing a long-standing pattern of Eastern Canada leaning red—at least when the party’s prospects are perceived as strong nationally.
Prairies: The Conservatives maintain a comfortable lead, reflecting their traditional base of support in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.
Demographically, the Liberals enjoy stronger support among women than men, while the Conservatives perform particularly well among older voters (60+), a pattern that holds from past elections. The Liberals are competitive or leading among those under 45, but the NDP’s decline signals a younger electorate coalescing more around the Liberals at this early stage, with some younger voters also open to the Conservatives.
Past Voters and Certainty to Vote
An especially revealing insight comes from looking at how 2021 voters are aligning now. The Liberals are retaining a large proportion of their past supporters, and they’re drawing many who voted NDP last time. Conservative retention remains fairly high, but there are small cracks in their coalition compared to past election cycles. Most notably, the NDP is losing support to both the Liberals and the Conservatives—a sign that disaffected 2021 NDP voters are splitting in different directions.
Among those most certain to vote, the gap narrows even further. The Conservatives sit at 38% among definite voters compared to 37% for the Liberals, bringing the race to a statistical tie. This signals that the usual Conservative advantage on turnout might not be as pronounced if Liberal partisans continue to show higher enthusiasm. Indeed, in this wave, we find that Liberal voters now report high levels of engagement—an important detail, since the turnout gap is often critical to shaping actual results.
But we also see that Liberal and NDP supporters are more likely to say they could change their mind signally a potential softness in their vote. These voters are looking for a clear option which is why a further consolidation around the Liberals could happen, especially since a growing number of people believe they will win the next election.
Growing Appetite for Change, But an Uncertain Path
A telling statistic is that 57% of Canadians say they “definitely” want a change in government—higher than at the end of the 2021 campaign, and roughly on par with where Stephen Harper’s government stood just before losing in 2015. This number is a real concern for any incumbent party. However, it’s not at the level we would call an “absolute danger zone,” as some campaigns have recovered from roughly similar positions, including Doug Ford’s PCs who were recently re-elected in Ontario
Still, among that 57% who definitely want change, the Conservatives capture 56% of the vote, while 15% say they would vote Liberal. That indicates a real opportunity for the Conservatives to reinforce the “time for a change” message—but also a vulnerability if issues such as Trump’s influence drive significant shifts in the campaign narrative and lead change voters to vote for the Liberals, despite wanting a change.
Leadership Impressions and the Trump Factor
One of the more interesting findings is the degree to which interest in this election is surging. Seventy-two percent now say they are “very interested” (8, 9, or 10 out of 10) in the coming vote—substantially higher than at the same point in 2021. That means leaders will be under more intense scrutiny, and impressions can shape campaign momentum.
Mark Carney (Liberal): With a net impression of +12, Carney holds the most positive rating of the three main party leaders, although roughly one in three Canadians either have a neutral opinion or don’t know enough yet to say. He’s seen as “smart” (61%) and “a strong leader” (46%), outscoring the others on both measures. His biggest opportunity is to introduce himself more fully to Canadians, given he’s the least well-known sitting Prime Minister in living memory—a highly unusual position.
Pierre Poilievre (Conservative): Poilievre’s net impression stands at -8, with a plurality describing him as “untrustworthy” (44%) and “fake” (42%). Still, many see him as capable on cost of living and housing, two issues that dominate voters’ minds. His task will be to retain focus on these pocketbook concerns and unify the “change” vote behind him.
Jagmeet Singh (NDP): Singh’s net impression is at -13, his lowest in recent memory, mirroring the broader struggles of the NDP. Many still view him as friendly and compassionate, but fewer believe he’s a strong leader or best in tune with their values. As a result, his support appears more fluid, with votes drifting toward both the Liberals and Conservatives.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.
Then there’s Donald Trump, currently President of the United States, looming large for many Canadians. A full 77% have a negative impression of him, and he ranks as a driving factor in this election for a significant share of the electorate. Among those who say Trump is the most important issue affecting their vote, the Liberals lead by almost 30 points—versus a 20-point Conservative lead among those who say cost of living is paramount. This reveals a stark fault line: voters outraged or alarmed by Trump lean heavily Liberal, while those who see inflation and affordability as top-of-mind lean Conservative.
Carney vs. Poilievre: Who Would You Prefer?
Though the Conservatives lead narrowly in overall vote intention, Mark Carney leads by four points (38% to 34%) when Canadians are asked which leader they’d like to see as Prime Minister. Regionally, Carney leads everywhere except the Prairies, and is tied with Poilievre in Ontario and BC—two critical battlegrounds. When asked to choose strictly between Carney and Poilievre, Canadians opt for Carney by a margin of 56% to 44%. In Quebec, that edge is even wider, with 77% of BQ voters preferring Carney over Poilievre, while 81% of NDP voters nationwide say the same.
On specific policy files, Carney is clearly seen as stronger on matters like handling Ukraine, climate change, international affairs, and specifically dealing with Trump. Poilievre commands an advantage on cost of living and housing, two areas that poll as the top concerns driving voter decisions this election. Singh doesn’t lead on any issue, though some voters still see him as an advocate on social services and housing.
The Upshot: A Close, Competitive Contest
A Narrow Race: Despite the Conservatives’ lead in the top-line numbers, the Liberals have gained dramatically in key regions—enough to make Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada effectively toss-ups and to give a seat advantage to the Liberals.
Engaged Liberals: Among those most certain to vote, the race is now almost tied, suggesting the Liberals’ base is as energized as, if not more energized than, the Conservatives.
NDP Slippage: The NDP is slipping to historic lows for Jagmeet Singh, with a significant share of that vote flowing to the Liberals—and some to the Conservatives. More than half of remaining NDP supporters say they could still change their minds, pointing to potential further declines if the campaign breaks against them.
Where Does the Race Go From Here?: For Carney, the biggest challenge is that 57% of Canadians say they definitely want a change in government—but so far, that sentiment is not exclusively consolidating around the Conservatives. Carney’s strongest card appears to be the Trump factor, along with his net-favourable leadership advantage. The question is whether cost-of-living anxieties or anti-Trump sentiments win out.
Conservative Path to Victory: Poilievre must rally those who want change, focus relentlessly on affordability and housing, and prevent the ballot question from drifting to Trump or foreign policy, where Carney has the edge. A sharper contrast on “time for a change” could still tip the balance in key ridings.
Liberals’ Potential: If the narrative continues to highlight Trump’s unpopularity, the desire for stability, and Carney’s perceived strengths, the Liberals may further erode both NDP and Conservative support.
Ultimately, it’s a razor-thin contest and one right now that seems to favour the Liberals. It’s Trump vs. change and a fight to set the ballot question. As Canadians gear up for a campaign that will launch within hours, the stakes are already high, voter engagement is much higher than at the start of the last election and the leadership dynamic is quite different than just a few months ago. A Prime Minister who remains less well-known than the Leader of the Opposition is a testament to just how unpredictable this election may be. Will Canadians focus on changing the government or protecting the country from Trump’s influence? We’re about to find out.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians eligible to vote from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Latest Abacus Data polling shows 57% of Canadian voters want a change. But the ballot question may be in transition as voters look for a leader … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/donald-trump-has-changed-the-election-game-plan-for-mark-carney-and-pierre-poilievre-here/article_2509d69c-6ecf-4d63-b47a-06789c818623.html&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw12xCuszrwrRfguIISpo-Uj
From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday.
We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in perceptions and priorities continues.
Here is what we see:
Vote Intention: Conservative 38, Liberal 34, NDP 15
If an election was held at the time of this survey, the Conservatives would get 38% of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 34%, the NDP at 15% and the BQ at 7% nationally (30% in Quebec).
Compared to our previous survey, the Liberals are up 5, the Conservatives down 5 while the NDP is up a marginal 1-point. In two months, the Liberal vote share is up 14-points (from 20% to 34%) while the Conservative vote share is down 8 (from 46% to 38%).
Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead in B.C. and the Prairies. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Ontario and Atlantic Canada while the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the BQ in Quebec (37% to 30%).
When we aggregate B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, we find the Conservatives leading the Liberals by four points (40% to 36%). Since mid-January, the Conservative vote share in these three provinces is down 11 points while the Liberal vote share is up 14.
Demographically, we see the Liberals gaining across all age groups and among men and women. The Liberals trail the Conservatives by 5 among those under 30, are 11-points behind among those aged 30 to 44 while both parties are statistically tied among those over 45.
The Conservatives have an eight-point lead among men while both parties are statistically tied among women.
One of the main reasons the Liberal vote share has grown is by reassembling its 2021 voter coalition. Today, 72% of 2021 Liberal voters say they will vote Liberal again, up 12 points in a month and up 6 since our last survey. In contrast, 82% of past Conservative voters say they will vote Conservative again, down 3 since last wave, and down 6 since a month ago. For the NDP, 61% of its past voters are loyal with 16% now saying they will vote Liberal and 9% voting Conservative.
Leader Impressions
Today, 37% of Canadians have a positive impression of Liberal Leader Mark Carney while 30% have a negative view for a net score of +7.
Pierre Poilievre’s net impressions are down overall. 36% have a positive view of the Conservative Leader, down 5 while 43% have a negative view – the highest we have ever measured. Mr. Poilievre’s net score is -7.
Views towards NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are largely unchanged – 29% positive versus 41% negative for a net score of -12.
The Trump Effect
Donald Trump continues to insert himself into domestic politics in Canada and is having an oversized impact on public opinion.
Views of the U.S. President continue to deterioriate. Today, only 13% of Canadians have a positive view of Trump, down 8 points over the past two months. In contrast, 75% have a negative impression, the highest we have ever measured. Of note, 65% say they have a very negative impression of the U.S. President.
While 88% of Liberal supporters and 87% of NDP supporters have a negative impression of Donald Trump, Conservatives are more divided. 1 in 4 Conservative supporters (23%) have a positive impression of Trump while 59% have a negative view.
Trump has also increasingly become the focus for Canadians. When asked to select their top three issues facing the country, 50% now put Trump and his administration in their top 3 issues, up 11 points in two weeks. The gap between the cost of living (61%) and Trump (50%) is now just 11 points. The economy, healthcare, and housing round out the top 5.
When we ask people who selected an issue which party they feel is best able to handle that issue, the Conservatives still have a big advantage on the cost of living, housing, the economy, immigration, and crime. But the Liberal advantage on Trump has grown to 14-points among those who rate it as a top issue.
If only those who rate the cost of living as a top issue voted, the Conservatives would get 38% of the vote followed by the Liberals at 37% and the NDP at 14%.
If only those who rate Trump as a top issue voted, the Liberals would win by almost 20-points, 47% to 28% with the NDP well back in third at 13%. This underscores just how helpful Trump has been to the Liberals.
Numerically, the Liberals now have a larger voter pool than the Conservatives
Perhaps more important for the Liberals and troubling for the Conservatives is the shift in accessible voter pools. Today, 50% of Canadians say they are open to voting Liberal while 49% are open to voting Conservative. This is the first time since November 2021 that the Liberal accessible voter pool is numerically larger than the Conservative one in our tracking.
That being said, the Conservatives still have a large pool of persuadable voters suggesting an election campaign may be very important in shaping people’s views of their choices. 16% of Canadians are open right now to voting for either the Liberals or Conservatives. They will likely decide the next election.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.
Perceptions About Who Will Win the Next Election
The perception gap between the Conservatives and Liberals continues to close on who Canadians think will win the next election. 41% think the Conservatives will win (down 11 in a month) while 32% think the Liberals will win (up 12 in a month). Only 6% think the NDP are positioned to win.
Carney vs. Poilievre: Who is best at…
In this survey, we replicated a set of questions we previously asked in April 2024. Somewhat unconventionally, we asked people between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, who they thought would be better at some real-life scenarios.
Back in April, when we asked about Trudeau and Poilievre, Trudeau led only on who people thought would best host a party. On every other item, Poilievre was either well ahead or tied basically with the Prime Minister.
Today, the environment is different. With Mark Carney as leader (even if he isn’t as well known as Justin Trudeau), he leads or is competitive with Poilievre on many of the things we tested. Carney leads by 9 on “finding common ground to solve a dispute”, by 4 on “standing up to a bully” and by six on “sitting beside on a long flight”. Poilievre’s only advantage is on “putting up a shelf” but the plurarity of Canadians aren’t sure who would be better at that.
On some scenarios we think are more critical to this moment, the two are essentially tied. On “captaining a ship through a rough storm” Carney is ahead by a marginal two points. On “putting out a kitchen fire” Carney is ahead by 2. And on “helping you manage your household expenses”, Carney bests Poilievre by 3.
When we look at the critical group of those open to voting Liberal and Conservative – 16% of the electorate, the results are more instructive.
Carney leads by a wide margin on financial management (+17) and by a smaller margin on resolving a dispute (+6) and sitting beside on a long flight (+5).
Poilievre leads by 10 on putting up a shelf, by 7 on putting out a kitchen fire, and by 10 on standing up to a bully.
Again, on the important scenario of “captaining a ship through a rough storm”, Carney is ahead by a single point with 1 in 3 of these voters unsure who would be best.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Donald Trump’s enduring influence on Canadian politics looms even larger in this latest survey, amplifying a landscape that is growing increasingly competitive. While the Conservatives still hold a narrow lead at 38% to the Liberals’ 34%, the winds have shifted decisively in the Liberals’ favour. Voters seem receptive to Mark Carney’s leadership, and the party is quickly rebuilding its 2021 coalition—a trend underscored by sizable gains across age groups, among women, and in key regions like Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada.
Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain formidable, but Trump’s shadow presents a real challenge. Nearly one in four Conservative supporters views the U.S. President positively—a stark contrast to the more uniformly negative sentiment among Liberals and New Democrats. As Trump draws more attention, particularly among Canadians who list him as a top issue, the Liberals have found their own advantage growing: a 14-point edge over the Conservatives on handling the “Trump factor” highlights how effectively Carney can position his party as a bulwark against the threat that Trump poses.
Meanwhile, perceptions of both leaders are evolving. Carney’s net favourability remains in positive territory (+7) at a moment (although his negatives are rising faster than his positives) when Poilievre’s is trending downward (-7). This points to a polarized electorate where negative partisanship could become a factor. Among those open to both parties, Carney’s edge on kitchen-table issues—like managing finances and resolving disputes—could tilt swing voters in his favour if these concerns continue to dominate the campaign narrative.
But there’s still a clear split on who Canadians think is best able to “captain a ship through a rough storm” a metaphor to the situation Canada finds itself in today.
All of this points to a newly fluid and highly competitive environment. The Liberals, buoyed by Carney’s arrival and a growing anti-Trump sentiment, are solidifying support faster than many might have anticipated even a few months ago. The Conservatives, for their part, still boast a large pool of persuadable voters, but their brand risks being defined by the polarizing figure of Trump. The election, whenever it comes, may ultimately hinge on whether the national conversation remains focused on cost-of-living pressures—a Conservative strong suit—or tilts more a debate over Trump and his impact on Canada, where the Liberals hold a clear advantage. Either way, the result is an unpredictable and tightening race reminiscent of the 2019 and 2021 elections.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,700 Canadian adults from March 10 to 12, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Ontario’s latest provincial election proved to be another decisive win for Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, securing about 43% of the vote and clinching a third straight majority with 80 seats at Queen’s Park. Despite the PCs’ commanding performance, the Ontario New Democrats maintained their grip on Official Opposition status, underscoring a surprising resilience among progressive voters. Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberals managed to bounce back in terms of overall support but saw those gains translate into fewer seats than they had hoped. It’s an outcome that leaves observers wondering how affordability, leadership perceptions, and local candidate appeal combined to deliver such a strong mandate for Ford while reshaping the province’s political landscape along the way.
In order to capture the most authentic motivations behind voters’ preferences, we employed an open-ended survey technique. Rather than relying on predetermined response options, this method allowed participants to articulate their reasons for supporting a particular party in their own words. By eliminating multiple-choice constraints, the feedback we received was richer, more nuanced, and better reflected the genuine sentiments of the electorate.
Eligible voters in Ontario in our final survey (days before the election) were simply asked: “In a few words, why did you vote for or why are you planning to vote [PARTY NAME]?” We then coded recurring themes—such as leadership, policy issues, and local candidate appeal—while retaining direct quotations to capture the colour and depth of respondents’ opinions.
This approach granted us insight into not only the topics driving voter decision-making, but also the emotional resonance and personal stories behind these choices. In the summaries that follow, we highlight key patterns and illustrative quotes for each major party, providing a window into the motivations behind Ontarians’ political allegiances.
Ontario PC Voters
Many PC supporters emphasized Doug Ford’s perceived strength on economic and fiscal matters. A considerable number pointed to his ability to “stand up to Trump” or handle U.S.-imposed tariffs—several explicitly mention that he is “the only one” who can fight for Ontario’s interests in cross-border disputes. Some cited a broader sense of stability: “He’s already done more for Ontarians than previous leaders,” or, more pragmatically, “Go with the devil you know.”
A significant theme was wariness toward other parties: respondents frequently reference distrust of Liberals, perceived fiscal irresponsibility from the NDP, or disillusionment with previous governments. One voter wrote, “I will never vote Liberal; they ruined our country,” while others declare that there is “no alternative” but the PCs. For these individuals, Ford represents a safer bet, even if they do not wholly endorse every aspect of his record.
Personal approval of Ford himself surfaces often, with descriptors like “approachable,” “real,” “people person,” and “down to earth.” Some point to specific policies—support for infrastructure, job creation, or roads—as evidence of good governance. Another recurring theme is confidence in Ford’s ability to manage cost-of-living challenges. “He’s trying to reduce the cost of living,” one voter says, capturing a sentiment echoed by others.
A minority of responses acknowledge Ford’s imperfections—several mention mistakes or policy missteps—but still deem him preferable to other leaders. One wrote, “He pulled a few fast ones, but he has Ontario’s best interest at heart.” Another admitted voting for him despite wanting to vote NDP, purely to avoid a Liberal win. Overall, this data reveals that most PC-leaning voters believe Doug Ford offers the best balance of strong leadership, economic pragmatism, and resilience in the face of external pressures—particularly from south of the border.
Ontario NDP Voters
A dominant theme among NDP supporters was the desire for a change in government, with many respondents indicating frustration or disappointment with both the PCs and the Liberals. Multiple voters explicitly mention that neither party “did it” for them, so they’re turning to the NDP for a fresh approach. A significant number point to the NDP’s policies on affordability and social programs—especially promises to “help the poor,” “cut grocery prices,” and build “more affordable housing.” Healthcare also features prominently; some highlight pledges to “hire more doctors” or “fix the schools,” expressing hope that the NDP will prioritize these concerns.
Marit Stiles herself garners praise for appearing “competent,” “trustworthy,” and “sincere.” Many respondents say she aligns with their personal values, referencing social justice, middle-class needs, and a focus on helping “the under dog.” Others appreciate her perceived integrity and “tough on the issues” stance, contrasting her approach with what they see as the failings of Doug Ford and other leaders. A few claim to be life-long NDP supporters, while others view Stiles’ leadership as the best way to unseat the current government.
Local candidates also matter. Several voters credit their decision to strong NDP representatives who “deserve to be re-elected.” Some even admit they’re voting strategically, believing the NDP is the “best chance to beat PC in my riding.” Overall, these responses convey an expectation that the Ontario NDP will prioritize everyday people, focus on key social and economic challenges, and provide a credible alternative to the status quo.
Ontario Liberal Voters
A central theme among Ontario Liberal Party supporters was also the desire to remove Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives from office. Many explicitly state that their vote for the Liberals is a strategic move to defeat Ford, with comments like “Best chance to defeat the PC candidate in my riding,” or “I’m voting Liberal so Ford can’t get a majority.” Several respondents also mention fatigue with Ford’s perceived mismanagement, pointing to healthcare cutbacks, wasted spending, or disagreements with his infrastructure plans. For them, Crombie represents a needed change and a credible challenger.
Bonnie Crombie herself is repeatedly described as “approachable,” “honest,” and someone who “cares about people,” with supporters lauding her stance on healthcare, education, and cost-of-living issues. Those referencing her record as Mississauga’s mayor praise her leadership experience and “ability to run the province.” Healthcare emerges as a major priority: many cite Crombie’s promise to invest in public hospitals, hire more doctors, or otherwise strengthen the system. Others point to her support for ODSP, emphasis on helping “hardworking people,” and readiness to stand up to both Doug Ford and external pressures (like Trump or tariffs). Some are life-long Liberals who simply want to see their party back in power, while others say they’re switching from the NDP or have always been non-partisan, but trust the Liberals’ platform more than any other.
Overall, these responses underscore a blend of policy alignment—especially on healthcare and social programs—and strategic calculation: many see the Liberals as the most viable option to unseat Ford while pursuing a more progressive, people-centered agenda.
The Upshot
rom the voters’ own words, it’s clear that Doug Ford’s 2025 win can be traced to a mix of perceived reliability, familiarity, and a belief that he alone could stand up to both American pressures—like President Trump’s tariffs—and local affordability challenges. Many PC supporters repeated variations of “he can handle the U.S. better than the rest,” indicating that Trump loomed large in the election conversation. Others saw Ford as more grounded in the day-to-day struggles of Ontarians, referencing the rising cost of living and the need for a leader who could tackle it head-on. Even some who admitted misgivings about Ford stuck with him, describing him as “the devil you know,” a safer choice than untested or less-trusted alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Ontario NDP and Liberals both promised significant changes, focusing on social justice, healthcare, and affordability. Marit Stiles captured imaginations with her emphasis on helping “the under dog,” and many praised her party’s grassroots engagement and local candidate strength. Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals highlighted a plan for healthcare investment and cost-of-living relief, and she personally inspired confidence as an experienced mayor. Despite that, key respondents repeatedly stated they were picking the Liberals or NDP “to stop Ford,” rather than out of wholehearted support—an admission that strategic voting sometimes overshadowed detailed policy preferences.
Ultimately, while Ford’s opponents offered robust platforms for change, they struggled to generate the same sense of stability that many Ontarians craved. Voters worried about U.S. tariffs, felt heightened economic anxiety, and looked for someone who could handle the biggest issues—especially affordability—without rocking the boat too much. In the end, those concerns gave Ford the edge. The NDP and Liberals, though appreciated for progressive values and fresh leadership, simply couldn’t overcome the widespread perception that Ford was best equipped to take on Trump and keep Ontario’s economy afloat.
You can find out more about what happened in the Ontario election by reading this in-depth interview I did with Martin Regg Cohn of the Toronto Star:
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 24 to 25, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
*Disclaimer: The polling was conducted before the US tariffs took place on March 4, 2025 which were then removed for another month. *
Starting in 2025, the new US administration confronted the Canadian public with all sorts of threats. We detected in recent polls that the looming tariff issues are top-of-mind for many Canadians.
Over the last couple of weeks, different media outlets (e.g., The Economist, Toronto Star, National Post or CBC) floated the idea of a possible Canadian membership to the European Union (EU). Those articles discussed different strategic advantages and benefits of both sides, as well as the hurdles and legal obstacles. At Abacus Data, we wanted to get insights from the Canadian public.
Our latest survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (February 20 – 25, 2025) explores public opinion on Canada’s relationship with its foreign partners and the idea of a Canadian EU membership.
To start, we wanted to know Canadians’ general impressions of relevant countries. The United Kingdom is viewed the most favourably with a combined positive impression of 72%, followed by the European Union with 68%. Only 34% of Canadians have a very or mostly positive impression of the United States, which is behind Mexico with 56% and just above China with 28%. The combined negative impression of the United States is 60%, which is even higher than China’s 58%. 17% said they don’t know enough to have an impression of the European Union, which is higher than any other tested countries.
We asked Canadians to rank the same list of countries by who they think is currently Canada’s most important international partner. With combined first and second spots, the United States is leading with 55% as the most important ranked partner. This is followed by the European Union (43%) and the United Kingdom (40%). What is noteworthy here is that the United States is ranked as the most important (1st) by 46%, which is considerably more than any other tested country. The next are 20% for the European Union and 14% for the United Kingdom. At the same time, the United States is also ranked as the least important partner (5th) by 27%, which is only topped by China with 28%. This is compared to the EU, which is ranked last by only 11%. This polarized opinion on the partnership between Canada and the United States is unmatched by any of the other tested countries.
Next, we asked the same question but looking forward to the next 3-5 years. The United States dropped from first to third place with a combined 1st & 2nd ranking spot of 38%. The Canadian public sees the European Union as the most important partner in the next 3-5 years, with a combined top 2 ranking of 52%, while the United Kingdom comes in second with 44%. Compared to the current partnership, there is a 16-point decrease (from 46% to 30%) of Canadians who ranked the United States as the most important (1st); this is still the highest score of all tested counties. The European Union gained 8 points (from 20% to 28%) as the most important partner looking forward, and the United States (35%) is taking over China (28%) as the least important ranked partner. The polarized opinion on the partnership with the United States continues when looking into the future and shifts from a most important to a least important net score.
Focusing on the European Union, we asked Canadians which countries within the European Union are considered the most important partners. Across Canada, 44% select France, and 29% choose Germany as Canada’s most important partner within the European Union – countries with the biggest economies and highest populations. What is noteworthy here is the relationship between Quebec and France; 71% of Canadians from Quebec selected France as the most important partner within the European Union.
After reminding Canadians of the recent tariff threats and the musing of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, we asked if the Canadian government should look into joining the European Union. 44% of Canadians think that the Canadian government definitely or probably should look into joining the European Union, while 34% are opposed to it. About 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure about the suggestion.
The picture changes slightly when asked if there is general support for Canada becoming a member state of the European Union. A combined 46% expressed strong or somewhat support for a Canadian EU membership while 29% are strongly or somewhat opposed. A quarter of Canadians indicate that they are unsure about Canadian membership in the European Union. Compared to the total, young Canadians (18 to 29) show the strongest support for the Canadian EU membership, while older Canadians (60 and above) are more often unsure about it. When breaking down the question to the past federal vote, Liberal Party voters show higher support, while Conservative Party voters more often oppose the idea.
Finally, we asked Canadians to imagine a scenario where Canada joined the European Union and if they think a list of key issues would get better, worse or not change much.
62% think that trade between Canada and the European Union would get much or somewhat better. A combined 48% think that the economic situation in Canada would get much or somewhat better. That the overall quality of life would get better was indicated by 41%. Regarding the number of people moving to Canada from the European Union, 40% think it would get better, while 24% said that they don’t know. Canadians are more split on the issue of the cost of living in Canada. 33% think it would get better, and 32% think it would get worse. On housing affordability in Canada, more Canadians think it would get worse (33%) than better (28%). The highest no change score was for the issue of healthcare in Canada (23%), while 34% think that healthcare would get better.
On the relationship between Canada and the United Kingdom, 47% think it would get better, while 17% think it would get worse. In comparison, only 20% think that the relationship with the United States would get better, and 50% think that it would get worse.
THE UPSHOT
For decades, the United States has been regarded as Canada’s primary partner, and for many Canadians that sense of closeness and shared interest has rarely been questioned. However, these new data suggest a meaningful shift in how Canadians perceive that relationship. Rising trade tensions, tariffs, and the broader strain of U.S. rhetoric have created polarization in public opinion. While many Canadians still believe the United States is an important partner, just as many now see it as a potential liability in both economic and diplomatic terms. That dissonance—where the U.S. simultaneously ranks highest on “most important” and “least important” partner—underscores how unsettled Canadians are about relying too heavily on a volatile American market.
Against this backdrop, openness to a Canadian partnership or even membership in the European Union takes on fresh significance. Fully 44% of Canadians think the government should look into joining the EU, and nearly half support the idea in principle—a remarkable number for a topic that was, until recently, more of a curiosity than a serious policy proposal. Younger Canadians, in particular, are notably more supportive. The shared values Canadians see reflected in Europe, along with the appeal of diversified trade and broader market access, are fuelling interest. For many, strengthening ties with European partners or even pushing for a more formal arrangement may be a strategic counterweight to the economic risks associated with an unpredictable United States.
Naturally, there would be countless legal, political, and cultural hurdles if Canada were ever to pursue formal EU membership. But at a minimum, the public opinion foundation is there for deeper integration—whether that means expanded trade deals under CETA, entry into the European Economic Area, or other creative alliances that loosen Canada’s reliance on a sometimes-hostile U.S. administration. With roughly one in four Canadians still unsure, there is room for more public debate and education on how an EU partnership might work and what it could achieve for Canada.
Overall, Canadians appear more open than ever to new international alliances, partly driven by the cooling of attitudes toward the United States. Where this leads in concrete policy terms remains to be seen, but the conversation itself has gained traction. If the U.S. relationship continues along a contentious path, the notion of “Canada in the EU”—once seen as fanciful—may evolve into a mainstream policy option.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census. data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Over the past few weeks, tensions between Canada and the United States have intensified, spurred by President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs and the constant threat of annexation. This heated political landscape has ignited a surge in Canadian patriotism, which is now expressing itself in a very tangible way: through consumer behaviour. In other words, shopping choices, travel plans, and overall spending patterns are no longer driven simply by cost or convenience—political considerations are increasingly at play.
This article delves into new data highlighting how the rising wave of national pride is reshaping Canadian travel intentions in 2025, with many opting to stay within Canadian borders rather than heading south.
As March break, family getaways, and summer plans draw near, this sea change in behaviour presents a pivotal moment for Canada’s domestic travel market. Tourism boards, local businesses, and destinations across the country have a timely opportunity to harness this sentiment, encouraging Canadians to spend their vacation dollars at home and reinforcing a spirit of unity in an era of heightened political and economic tensions.
U.S. Travel Intentions in 2025
One-third (33%) of Canadians had plans to visit the United States in 2025.
Younger Canadians were more likely to have U.S. travel intentions, with 42% of those aged 18-29 and 41% of those aged 30-44 either having booked or planning to book a trip. Families with children were also more inclined to travel to the U.S., with 51% of those with children under 12 and 46% with children aged 12-17 planning a trip.
However, as the tensions between the U.S. and Canada have escalated, 56% of those who initially planned to visit the U.S. have either canceled or changed their travel plans. Of these, 39% have shifted to other countries (20%) or different locations in Canada (19%), while 17% have postponed or canceled their U.S. trips. Younger Canadians (63% of those 18-29 and 62% of those 30-44) and those with children (64% with kids under 12 and 72% with kids 12-17) are more likely to have altered their plans. In contrast, older Canadians are more likely to continue with their U.S. travel plans, with 32% of those 60+ planning to proceed despite the political climate.
Political Climate’s Influence on U.S. Travel
The current political and economic climate between Canada and the U.S. has made traveling to the U.S. less appealing for many Canadians. 66% of Canadians indicated that the situation has made the U.S. a less attractive travel destination. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among older Canadians, with 78% of those aged 60+ noting that U.S. travel has become less appealing. This aligns with our research, which shows that older Canadians express heightened concerns regarding the state of Canada-U.S. relations.
The perception of former U.S. President Donald Trump has a major impact on these views. Among those with a negative opinion of Trump, 86% said the current political climate has made the U.S. less appealing, with 59% actively avoiding travel to the U.S..
Reasons for Reduced Appeal to the U.S.
Those who find the U.S. less appealing as a travel destination cite a variety of reasons:
48% cite concerns about the political climate or leadership, particularly under Trump
46% mention disagreement with U.S. policies
43% express a preference for supporting Canadian businesses and destinations
43% are also concerned about the weak Canadian dollar
The combination of political concerns, disagreements with U.S. policies, and economic factors like the weak Canadian dollar is driving many Canadians to view the U.S. as a less appealing travel destination.
Older Canadians are more concerned about these factors, with 60% of those aged 60+ worried about the U.S. political climate (compared to 34% of those aged 18-29) and 53% concerned about the weak Canadian dollar (vs. 30% of younger Canadians). Those with a negative view of Trump are especially likely to cite concerns about the U.S. political climate (54%) and policies (51%).
Impact of Tariffs on Travel Intentions
Tariffs are another factor affecting Canadians’ travel plans. While tariffs had not been implemented at the time of the survey, 28% of Canadians said they would still have concerns about traveling to the U.S. even without them. On the other hand, 24% of respondents said the removal of tariffs might make them more likely to visit, but that the political will still influence their decision. Only 18% of Canadians noted that, if tariffs were not implemented, they would be more likely to visit the U.S..
Now that tariffs have been implemented, they are likely to further discourage travel to the U.S., with many Canadians already expressing hesitation even before their enforcement.
Avoiding U.S. Travel: Short and Long-Term Plans
A significant proportion of Canadians plan to avoid traveling to the U.S.. 71% of respondents indicated that they intend to avoid the U.S. for at least the next six months. Additionally, 23% of Canadians plan to refrain from U.S. travel for more than a year, with 28% of those aged 60+ and 27% of those who view Trump negatively among the most likely to take this approach. A further 32% said they would consider returning to the U.S. once the current situation improves, though no specific timeline was provided. This sentiment was particularly strong among those aged 60+ (39%) and those with a negative impression of Trump (36%).
The significant number of Canadians planning to avoid U.S. travel highlights the growing impact of political tensions on travel decisions, with many indicating they will only return once the situation improves, reflecting a deeper shift in attitudes toward cross-border relations.
2025 Travel Intentions: A Shift Toward Domestic Travel
Looking ahead to 2025, only 9% of Canadians intend to visit the United States, suggesting a significant decline in U.S.-bound travel. In contrast, domestic travel is more appealing, with 44% planning to travel to provinces outside their home province, 38% intending to travel within their home province, and 10% considering a staycation. European travel is also a popular option, with 22% of Canadians planning to visit Europe – particularly those aged 18-29 (31%). Notably, 20% of Canadians do not plan to travel at all in 2025.
This shift in travel preferences highlights a broader trend of Canadians opting for local destinations, further distancing themselves from U.S. travel due to ongoing political and economic concerns.
THE UPSHOT
In the past, calls to “buy Canadian” and support local might have felt more like patriotic slogans than genuine catalysts for change. But this time, something is different. The tension with the U.S. – symbolized most starkly by the tariffs – has sparked genuine anger and a sense of betrayal among many Canadians. These emotions run deeper than mere inconvenience or raised eyebrows at the news; for a significant segment of the population, there’s now an unmistakable feeling of “enough is enough.”
This emotional undercurrent is shifting travel and buying patterns in ways we haven’t seen before. It’s not just feel-good rhetoric: Canadians are breaking old habits and forming new ones, motivated by something far more powerful than a good deal or a chance to earn loyalty points. Many Canadians now see their spending as a statement, whether that means choosing a cottage weekend in Ontario over a shopping trip across the border or picking local vendors instead of U.S.-based retailers.
It’s rare to witness such a profound shift in consumer sentiment. Yet in this moment, Canadians are re-examining their everyday choices – from where to vacation to which brands they trust – and these decisions are fueled by deeply felt emotions. For Canadian tourism operators and DMOs, this is both a challenge and a remarkable opportunity: to meet consumers’ growing desire for authentic, homegrown experiences, and to solidify a new habit of supporting local that could endure long after the current tensions fade.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census. data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
For the past few years, Canadians have navigated a scarcity mindset, shaped by housing shortages, rising costs, strained healthcare, and job insecurity. This competition for essential resources fueled frustration, shifting views on immigration, climate change, and housing, driving many voters away from the Trudeau-led Liberals in search of relief.
Now, we see a new mindset emerging – one defined by uncertainty. The tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration yesterday only adds to that uncertainty.
Canadians are no longer just worried about affording or getting access to what they need today; they are increasingly unsure what the next few months (or years) will bring. Political instability, economic volatility, and external threats like Trump’s proposed tariffs and his musings about annexation have deepened financial, professional, and personal insecurity. Affordability, job security, and Canada’s global standing now feel unpredictable, making long-term planning seem risky, if not impossible for some.
This shift fromscarcity to precarity is not just about limited resources but about whether key systems will remain reliable. Will housing become more affordable? Will healthcare be accessible when needed as Canada’s aging population puts further strain on an already precarious system? Will economic pressures make it harder to build a future, build wealth, and achieve dreams? These uncertainties are shaping career, family, and financial decisions as Canadians struggle to navigate what comes next.
Understanding what a precarity mindset looks like – how it is influencing public perception, decision-making, and long-term confidence – offers valuable insight into how Canadians are coping with an increasingly uncertain future.
Rising Costs and Delayed Life Plans
As financial pressures continue to mount, Canadians are growing increasingly uncertain about their ability to maintain stability in the months ahead. 68% are worried about affording basic needs over the next six months, with concerns particularly high among younger Canadians (81% of 18-29-year-olds), young families (78% with children under 12, 80% with children 12-17), and lower-income households (82% of those earning less than $35,000).
Nearly half (45%) of Canadians say they would struggle to cover their expenses for three months if their financial situation changed unexpectedly, a concern that is even greater for families with children 12-17 (52%) and those aged 30-44 (51%) and 45-59 (49%).
This financial strain is forcing many to put major life decisions on hold. 70% of Canadians say they are delaying key milestones such as buying a home, starting a family, or retiring, with 18-29-year-olds (77%) and parents with young children (76%) the most likely to be postponing their plans. But this hesitation is about more than affordability today – it reflects growing uncertainty about whether these milestones will ever feel within reach. As economic conditions remain unstable and long-term financial security feels increasingly out of reach, planning for the future has become far more difficult, particularly for young Canadians and families trying to build stability in an unpredictable environment.
Social Divisions and Competition for Resources
Beyond individual financial concerns, many Canadians acknowledge the presence of growing divisions in society as access to key resources becomes more strained. Just under half (46%) believe that competition for housing, healthcare, and jobs is creating tensions in their communities, particularly among younger Canadians, who feel this strain most acutely (49% of 18-29-year-olds, and 52% of 30-44-year-olds).
Precarity is reinforcing zero-sum thinking that we have seen grow over the past few years.
Similarly, 53% of Canadians believe the country’s core systems – housing, healthcare, and social support – are not fair or equitable for all Canadians. This concern is strongest among middle-aged Canadians (60% of those aged 45-59) and lower-income households (59-60% of households earning less than $50,000), who often feel they are being left behind. The question is no longer just about who has access to these resources today, it is about whether we will have reliable access to these systems (healthcare, housing, social services) in the future.
Environmental Concerns and Future Uncertainty
While our recent polling has revealed a decline in Canadians’ immediate concerns about climate change, it remains a source of uncertainty about the future. 69% of Canadians worry about its impact over the next five years, with younger Canadians (79%) and those with children under 12 (76%) expressing the greatest concern. While some believe Canada is taking adequate action, 36% feel not enough is being done to prepare for long-term risks relate to climate change.
Many are left wondering how climate-related disruptions – such as extreme weather, rising insurance costs, and potential food shortages – could affect their financial and personal security. The uncertainty is not just about the severity of these risks but about how well Canada is prepared to navigate them in the coming years.
Stress, Anxiety, and a Growing Sense of Uncertainty
Canadians are increasingly feeling the psychological impact of uncertainty, with 43% saying external factors – such as the economy, global politics, and government decisions – significantly shape their daily lives, making it harder to feel secure about the future.
Top stressors include:
80% worry about the country’s direction
79% feel anxious about Canada-U.S. relations
72% stress over housing affordability
71% are concerned about healthcare access
Younger Canadians are feeling the most pressure, with concerns centered on housing affordability, job instability, and financial security, making it difficult to plan for the future. Families with young children share similar anxieties, as they navigate rising costs and uncertainty about their children’s financial prospects. For those in their 30s and 40s, the challenge lies in balancing homeownership costs and long-term financial stability, while older Canadians are more focused on Canada’s relationship with the U.S. and its broader economic implications.
Looking ahead, 37% of Canadians cite affording food, housing, and utilities as their biggest concern, particularly lower-income (46%) and middle-aged Canadians (44%). Healthcare access (29%) is a growing issue, especially for those 60+ (47%), while 21% worry about housing costs and 23% of younger Canadians fear job instability.
For parents, raising children in an increasingly uncertain world weighs heavily, with 26% of those with kids under 12 and 22% with teens citing political, economic, and social instability as a major concern.
THE UPSHOT
Canada’s shift from a scarcity mindset to a precarity mindset reflects a growing uncertainty about the future. Concerns over housing, healthcare, and job security have long been pressing, but they are now magnified by political instability, economic unpredictability, and external pressures like U.S. trade threats. Canadians are no longer just worried about what they have today – they are questioning what they will have access to in the months (and years) ahead.
This uncertainty affects Canadians differently depending on their stage of life. Younger Canadians struggle with housing affordability, job security, and financial independence, making it difficult to plan for the future. Parents worry about raising children amid economic and social instability, which threatens financial security and future opportunities. Middle-aged Canadians face rising costs while juggling career and financial responsibilities, making long-term stability feel out of reach. Older Canadians are most concerned about Canada’s economic position, U.S. relations, and healthcare access, particularly as they approach retirement.
This growing instability has far-reaching implications for businesses, organizations, and political leaders. Consumer behaviour is shifting as financial caution delays major purchases, affecting industries from real estate to retail. Advocacy groups and policymakers will need to offer long-term solutions, addressing affordability, job security, and essential services, rather than relying on short-term fixes.
For political parties, this shift presents both risks and opportunities. Canadians want stability, security, and leadership that reassures them, not rhetoric that fuels division or fear. Policies that offer sustainable solutions – such as housing affordability, economic resilience, and healthcare access – will resonate more than reactionary measures. Trump’s tariff threats and global instability have put economic leadership at the forefront, and Canadians may look to leaders who can protect the country from external shocks while strengthening domestic stability. While fear-based messaging can mobilize voters, over-reliance on crisis narratives risks deepening public anxiety. Parties that recognize this uncertainty and offer a clear, pragmatic vision for stability will be best positioned to gain support.
As precarity continues to shape how Canadians view their future, make decisions, and engage with institutions, understanding this mindset will be critical in navigating the challenges ahead. The focus must shift beyond addressing today’s concerns – it must be about rebuilding stability and trust for the future.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/world at anticipating public behaviour and understanding the reasons behind it.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Yesterday’s vote in Ontario delivered Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives a historic third-straight majority victory—something not seen in the province since 1959. It was a campaign that, despite a growing desire for change and weeks of speculation about just how potent anger at incumbents would be, ultimately stayed true to the polling narrative that Ford was on track for an impressive win. From where I sit, several factors shaped these results, and they help explain why Ontario followed Nova Scotia’s Tim Houston in bucking the broader anti-incumbent trend we’ve witnessed elsewhere.
Cost of Living, Trump, and the Economy at the Centre
First and foremost, voters’ concerns about day-to-day economic issues—rising prices, job security, and anxiety around the cost of living—continued to dominate throughout the campaign. Our final poll of the election showed that 59 percent of Ontarians listed the cost of living as one of the top three issues they wanted to see debated, with 33 percent saying it was the primary driver of their vote. Ford and the PCs were consistently perceived as strongest on this question, maintaining a double-digit lead over the Liberals among cost-of-living voters. The fact that cost of living remained the central theme of the race is critical: it’s the issue that Ford “owns” in many people’s minds.
Overlaying that pocketbook anxiety was the spectre of U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance and, more concretely, the looming threat of tariffs on Ontario industries. Ford used the fear and uncertainty around Trump’s policies to frame himself as the steady hand Ontarians needed. He campaigned heavily on a “Canada is not for sale” message, positioning himself as the only leader with the mettle to navigate chaos south of the border. Whether you see this as cynical or pragmatic, it resonated with working-class voters and those employed in manufacturing or trade-dependent sectors. Ultimately, it solidified the PC advantage in regions such as the GTHA and southwestern Ontario.
Healthcare’s Salience Rose—But Not Enough
One of the more interesting developments was healthcare’s gradual rise in importance as a ballot-box issue. Our polling detected a real uptick: by the end of the campaign, 40 percent of voters put healthcare in their top three issues, making it the second-most salient concern after cost of living. The Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, successfully made inroads among voters who said that healthcare would be their primary determinant. In fact, the Liberals had a 21-point advantage over the PCs among voters who prioritized healthcare above all else.
Yet for Crombie and her team, that upswing in healthcare salience didn’t broaden into a campaign-defining wave. In essence, cost of living and responding to Trump overshadowed the healthcare push. Even if Crombie had some success in persuading voters that the Liberals were better stewards of the healthcare system, it wasn’t sufficient to dislodge a government widely seen as relatively competent on economic matters. And in the end, the NDP were able to hold several key ridings in southwestern Ontario and the north, limiting Liberal hopes of a dramatic seat swing.
A Rare Positive Favourability for All Leaders
An unusual feature of this campaign was that all four party leaders ended with net-positive favourability. Doug Ford hovered around +3, Bonnie Crombie at +2, Marit Stiles of the NDP at +9, and Mike Schreiner of the Greens also finished in positive territory. Ford’s numbers have remained remarkably stable, considering that most incumbents see their negatives grow over time. Meanwhile, the opposition leaders made strides in introducing themselves positively to voters, but that across-the-board favourability prevented any one rival from surging ahead on sheer likability or novelty.
At the same time, that overall “everyone looks decent” dynamic meant individual issues and leadership on the economy weighed more heavily on voting decisions. If you like Marit Stiles personally but don’t think her party is strong on cost of living, it becomes easier for you to vote PC. And if you see the Liberals as competent on healthcare but not on taxes or trade, you may still lean PC.
Why Ford and the PCs Won
If we step back, the PCs’ win boiled down to three key forces:
1. Economic Anxiety: Ford kept the focus on jobs, affordability, and tax threats. He positioned himself as the champion of Ontario’s working class in the face of global headwinds
2. Trump’s Tariffs: This unique angle gave Ford a chance to appear statesmanlike, travelling to Washington mid-campaign and touting his “Canada is Not for Sale” credentials. That overshadowed attacks on his record
3. Stable Approval and Desire for Change Not High Enough: While the desire for a new government did climb to 57 percent in our final poll, it never reached the “danger zone” that fatally undermines an incumbent. Crucially, the support for opposition parties splintered between Liberals, NDP, and Greens, helping Ford retain a comfortable lead.
Challenges Facing the Opposition
Crombie’s Liberals did recapture official party status. They increased their overall vote share to around 30 percent—no small feat for a party that’s been on the ropes since 2018. But Crombie lost her own seat, and the Liberals remain shut out across large swaths of the province. Their core challenge remains that focusing on healthcare alone isn’t enough in an environment dominated by inflation, job growth, and an unpredictable U.S. administration.
The NDP, meanwhile, held onto Official Opposition status. Stiles fended off some key PC challenges, but her party lost seats and is now contending with an emboldened Liberal presence. The NDP still have a strong base in particular regions but are finding it tougher to grow beyond those areas when voters’ primary concerns are pocketbook issues rather than social programs.
Looking Ahead: Federal Implications
Anytime Canada’s most populous province goes to the polls, eyes turn to Ottawa. Ford’s resounding win suggests that Canadians, or at least Ontarians, still reward leaders who project competence on bread-and-butter economic files. For federal parties, the lesson may be that an incumbent (Mark Carney?) perceived as reasonably adept at managing economic anxieties can hold off even a rising desire for change.
If cost of living continues to dominate headlines, incumbents—provincial or federal—who offer reassurance on inflation and job security will likely remain competitive, even if there’s general restlessness for something different.
Ontario’s 2025 election ultimately ended as it began: with Ford and the PCs touting their capacity to shield (or protect) the province from Trump’s tariffs, respond to affordability concerns, and steer the economy. The Liberals and NDP did raise pressing issues around healthcare and public services, but it wasn’t enough to break the PCs’ hold on the “living costs plus economy” narrative.
The result, then, is a seldom-seen third majority that reaffirms Ontario’s comfort with Ford’s vision and sends a clear signal about voters’ priorities in uncertain times.
Our Accuracy and Depth Stands Out
Yesterday’s Ontario election was also a testament to the accuracy and reliability of polling in Canada, and I’m proud of how close Abacus Data’s final estimates came to the actual popular vote. Working in partnership with the Toronto Star, our polling suggested the Progressive Conservatives would secure a strong lead, with the Liberals and NDP trailing behind. While horse race numbers grab attention, the deeper questions we ask about motivations and concerns reveal the ‘why’ behind the results.
That’s where Abacus Data stands out.
Our ability to quickly field surveys, dive deep into voter and consumer sentiments, and then tell a compelling story with the data is what differentiates us in a crowded field. In a fast-paced political and consumer climate, we combine speed and depth with a storytelling approach that turns numbers into meaningful insights. This election was no exception, as we accurately identified the major trends in public opinion, while also offering a nuanced view of what might come next.
I’m also thrilled to recognize the hard work and dedication of our team of 18 professionals, spread from Halifax to Ottawa, Toronto, London, and Edmonton. Their commitment to rigorous methodology, thoughtful analysis, and a collaborative spirit makes it possible for us to deliver timely results that people trust.
I can’t express how fortunate I feel to work with such talent every day.
Looking ahead, we plan to apply the same methods on an even bigger scale for the upcoming federal election.
We’ll be launching a special subscription service—available exclusively to our clients—designed to keep them informed with real-time polling data and expert analysis.
Pollsters across Canada performed exceptionally well this Ontario election, and our industry remains among the best in the world at anticipating public behaviour and understanding the reasons behind it.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
