The Politics of Precarity: How Economic and Social Uncertainty Can Shape Canadian Voter Preferences
April 3, 2025
Between March 17 and 20, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. As part of this, we developed the Abacus Data Precarity Index, a measure used to categorize Canadians based on their level of confidence in the future. The index ranges from those who feel secure and resilient in the face of change (low precarity) to those experiencing heightened anxiety and uncertainty about how sudden shifts could impact their personal well-being (extreme precarity).
As Canadians prepare for the next federal election, we have witnessed a shift in the mindset of Canadians that has the potential to impact how voters view the country’s leadership and potentially impact who they ultimately vote for. Those experiencing higher levels of precarity – marked by economic anxiety, social instability, and uncertainty about the future – see the world through a very different lens than those who feel more secure and confident. This mindset is not about party preference, but about what kind of leader people believe is best suited to navigate an unpredictable future.
The Stability vs. Disruption Divide
Voters who feel economically and socially secure are firmer in their vote, with 72% of low precarity voters and 68% of mild precarity voters saying their decision is final. In contrast, those experiencing higher precarity remain more open to persuasion – 54% of high precarity voters and 45% of extreme precarity voters say they could still change their minds. While a majority (55%) of extreme precarity voters have made their decision, this still highlights a high degree of vote fluidity among those most uncertain about the future, making them a key group to watch in the election.
This fluidity matters because, as noted in our last post, those with high and extreme precarity scores are currently more likely to vote Liberal (40% and 61%), while those with low and mild precarity scores lean Conservative (53% and 46%).
However, leadership preferences add complexity to this divide. When asked who they prefer to be the next Prime Minister of Canada, Carney is the clear favourite among high (61%) and extreme (76%) precarity voters, while Poilievre dominates among those with low precarity scores (62%). Interestingly, among mild and moderate precarity voters, Carney holds a narrow lead (52%-48% and 53%-47%, respectively), indicating that even some who feel relatively stable view him as the safer choice in uncertain times.
Who is Best Suited to Lead in Uncertain Times?
As Canadians face growing economic and political uncertainty, leadership preferences reveal a clear stability vs. disruption divide. Those with higher precarity prefer Carney’s institutional expertise and stability, while those who feel secure favour Poilievre’s promise of bold change and disruption.
Donald Trump: Trump has become a defining issue in this election. 57% of extreme precarity voters believe that Carney is the person best able to deal with Donald Trump, while 45% of low precarity voters favor Poilievre. Those feeling vulnerable prioritize diplomatic stability, while those more secure favour a more confrontational approach.
Economic Growth: A similar divide appears on economic leadership – Carney is seen as the best person to grow the economy by extreme (49%) and high (44%) precarity voters, while Poilievre leads among low (49%) and mild (43%) precarity voters.
Housing Affordability: On making housing more affordable, Carney is preferred by high (31%) and extreme (32%) precarity voters, while Poilievre dominates among low (43%) and mild (40%) precarity voters. Interestingly, 33% of extreme precarity voters back Singh on housing, signaling NDP appeal among the most economically strained.
Budget Deficit & Government Spending: 56% of extreme and 43% of high precarity voters trust Carney to manage the federal budget deficit, while 48% of low precarity voters prefer Poilievre. Again, those facing uncertainty favour stability, while those feeling secure lean toward spending cuts.
Cost of Living: Among high precarity voters, Carney (31%) and Poilievre (28%) are nearly tied, while extreme precarity voters lean slightly toward Carney. Poilievre leads among those with mild and moderate precarity, suggesting his affordability message has broader reach – but Carney resonates more with those feeling the greatest uncertainty.
National Unity: Carney is the top choice to keep Canada united among 51% of extreme and 31% of high precarity voters, while Poilievre is preferred by 46% of low precarity voters and leads among those with mild and moderate precarity. This suggests that those feeling the most uncertainty are drawn to unity and stability, while those who feel more secure tend to favour change.
Across key issues – economic growth, housing, global relations, and government spending – those experiencing greater precarity favour Carney, while those who feel more secure lean toward Poilievre. However, cost of living remains a shared concern across all voter groups, making it a pivotal battleground.
How Precarity Shapes Government Approval
Voters experiencing the highest levels of precarity are more likely to approve of the federal government’s performance, with 47% of high precarity voters and 54% of extreme precarity voters expressing support for the job the Carney-led government is doing. This suggests that Carney’s approach – emphasizing stability, economic expertise, and long-term planning – resonates with those feeling the most uncertainty.
However, these high to extreme precarity voters, as noted above, are the most susceptible to changing their minds. While Carney’s messaging is working, maintaining their trust will be critical. He must continue reinforcing his ability to provide steady leadership, tangible economic relief, and a clear vision for navigating uncertain times.
Meanwhile, those who feel more secure (low precarity voters) are more inclined to seek change, with 42% disapproving of the government’s performance led by Mark Carney. This underscores a key challenge – Carney must solidify support among those seeking stability while demonstrating to more secure voters that his leadership is the right choice for Canada’s long-term economic future. At the same time, Poilievre’s advantage among these voters means he must continue reinforcing his message of bold change, lower taxes, and immediate affordability relief. His challenge will be expanding his appeal beyond those who feel secure, by demonstrating he can also offer a steady hand in uncertain times.
THE UPSHOT
With precarious voters still persuadable, the election could hinge on which leader best convinces them they can navigate Canada’s uncertainty. Carney must reinforce his credibility on affordability and make the case that long-term stability is essential for lowering costs. Meanwhile, Poilievre must persuade voters he can deliver immediate financial relief without adding to instability. Both leaders must expand their appeal – Carney by acknowledging immediate affordability pressures, and Poilievre by demonstrating he can govern effectively in volatile times.
This data highlights a fundamental divide in how Canadians perceive leadership in uncertain times. Those who feel secure gravitate toward Poilievre, seeing him as a disruptor who promises lower costs and economic relief. In contrast, those who feel more precarious lean toward Carney, trusting him as a steady leader who can navigate economic and political turbulence.
Ultimately, the most precarious voters remain the most persuadable. Their preference for stability means they will seek concrete assurances on economic security, affordability, and Canada’s role in a volatile global environment. This election is not just about party loyalty – it’s about who can best address the anxieties shaping Canada’s future.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ Presidency, it seems pretty unlikely, that this issue, and it’s political velocity, will be going away.
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