Trust, Change, and Uncertainty: What’s Really Shaping the Canadian Vote?
Between March 20 and 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. This wave explores how emotional drivers are shaping vote intentions and leadership preferences in the lead-up to the election. As affordability pressures and global instability dominate public discourse, Canadians are increasingly dividing along two emotional lines: those driven by a scarcity mindset, focused on immediate cost-of-living relief and a desire to disrupt the status quo; and those shaped by a precarity mindset, motivated by uncertainty about the future and a longing for stability, competence, and reassurance. This article examines how these underlying emotional currents are influencing voter priorities, perceptions of leadership, and the path to victory for Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.
What’s Driving the Vote? How Issues Are Shaping Canada’s 2025 Election
With the federal election underway, two issues have taken centre stage: affordability and Donald Trump. Affordability leads, with 34% of Canadians saying the cost of living will most influence their vote, while 19% cite Trump’s impact on Canada – highlighting how global uncertainty is shaping domestic decisions. The Conservatives lead among those focused on affordability (40% vs. 33% Liberal), while the Liberals dominate among voters prioritizing Trump’s impact (51% vs. 28% Conservative).
Still, nearly half of Canadians (47%) say another issue will be most important when they vote – proving that while affordability and Trump dominate the headlines, many voters are focused elsewhere. Among these other top issues, the Conservatives are favoured on jobs and the economy, taxes, and public safety, while the Liberals lead on healthcare, housing, climate change, and Canada-U.S. relations.
This contrast reveals a deeper divide in mindset. The Conservatives resonate with those in a scarcity mindset – voters seeking immediate relief and system disruption – while the Liberals connect with those in a precarity mindset, who are more focused on navigating uncertainty and restoring long-term stability. In a moment shaped by both economic pressure and global unease, this election will likely come down to which leader voters believe can best meet the moment they’re living through.
What Do Canadians Want from Their Next Leader? It Depends on the Lens
Canadians are divided on what the next Prime Minister should prioritize. One-third (34%) want a more independent, Canada-first approach to trade and economic policy, while 29% want a leader who will challenge elites and make life more affordable. Meanwhile, 18% prioritize rebuilding trust in government, and another 18% want a leader focused on global influence and managing geopolitical uncertainty.
Voting intentions appear to vary by priority. Those who prioritize a more independent, Canada-first approach lean Liberal (40% vs. 36% Conservative), while voters focused on affordability and challenging elites tilt slightly toward the Conservatives (35% vs. 32%). Conservatives also lead among those who say rebuilding trust and ensuring long-term domestic stability is most important (44% vs. 32% Liberal), while the Liberals dominate among voters who want to strengthen Canada’s global influence and navigate geopolitical uncertainty (51% vs. 35%).
Together, these findings highlight a growing divide in how Canadians see the role of leadership. The Conservatives are drawing support from voters who want to disrupt the status quo and regain control in the face of immediate pressures, while the Liberals are resonating with those who value long-term stability, global competence, and steady leadership. This signals that in the upcoming election, how a leader leads – disruptive versus stabilizing – may matter just as much as what they promise to do.
Stability or Disruption? Canadians Are Split on the Leadership They Want
In addition to being divided on what the next leader should prioritize, Canadians are also split on the kind of leader they believe the country needs. While 42% want someone who can bring stability and keep Canada on a steady path – even if change comes more slowly – only 18% prefer a leader who will shake up the system and make bold changes despite the uncertainty. Another 34% are looking for a balance: stability paired with meaningful reform.
This leadership divide is reflected in voter preferences. Mark Carney appeals to those who prioritize stability, earning 47% support among that group (vs. 31% for Poilievre), while Pierre Poilievre resonates with voters seeking disruption, winning 48% of those looking for bold change (vs. 27% for Carney).
This tension reflects the broader precarity mindset – where many Canadians, uncertain about their future, are craving reassurance. The question now is which leader can bridge the desire for calm with the need for change – and earn the trust of voters navigating a deeply uncertain moment.
The Upshot
As Canadians head toward a pivotal election in just 3 weeks, a clear divide has emerged between those intending to vote Conservative and those leaning Liberal – one that reflects not just political preferences, but fundamentally different worldviews. Pierre Poilievre has successfully tapped into a scarcity mindset, rallying voters who are most focused on immediate affordability, tax relief, and breaking down institutional barriers. These voters feel left behind by the system and want quick, tangible change. His message of disruption and control resonates strongly with those who see the present as unstable and the government as part of the problem.
In contrast, Mark Carney has gained traction among voters experiencing a precarity mindset – those who have concerns about the present but are more worried about what the future holds. These Canadians are navigating global uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and institutional instability. They are not necessarily demanding transformation, but instead, seeking a leader who offers competence, calm, and long-term reassurance.
For Poilievre, the challenge is to show that bold reform can come without further destabilizing the country – especially to voters feeling uncertain. For Carney, the opportunity lies in deepening trust among precarious voters while demonstrating that long-term planning doesn’t mean ignoring immediate struggles like affordability. Each leader has built strength within their respective mindset – scarcity and precarity – but winning may come down to who can bridge the two.
In a race defined as much by emotional climate as by policy, the leader who can meet Canadians where they are – acknowledging both their current frustrations and future anxieties – may ultimately earn their trust and their vote.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from March 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ada’s political future.
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