Abacus Data Poll: Political Opinions Stable as Canadians Settle into Summer, Even as Trump Tariffs Cast a Shadow

From July 10 to 15, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,915 Canadian adults about the state of federal politics, capturing opinion just days after the federal government adjusted its approach to the Digital Services Tax (DST) in response to the Trump administration. As Ottawa continues its high-stakes renegotiation of the Canada-U.S. trade relationship, aiming for a deal before August 1, Canadian public opinion remains remarkably steady.

Direction of the Country: Optimism Holds, But Unease with the World Persists

Just over a third (36%) of Canadians believe the country is headed in the right direction, down slightly from two weeks ago. While more still say Canada is on the wrong track (44%), that number has stabilized after months of modest improvement. However, global sentiment remains bleak: only 12% think the world is headed in the right direction, and just 11% feel that way about the United States, a low point driven largely by anxiety over President Trump’s economic and foreign policy moves.

Supporters of the federal Liberals are far more optimistic (57%), while just 20% of Conservatives share that view. Optimism is higher among older Canadians (43% among those 60+), Atlantic Canadians (43%), and higher-income households. Young people (18–29) and women remain notably less upbeat, with only 33% and 31% respectively saying Canada is headed in the right direction.

What’s Keeping Canadians Up at Night? Tariffs, Trump, and Global Instability

In a word cloud generated from open-ended responses, two terms dominate: “Tariff” and “Trump.” Trade anxieties have clearly surged to the top of Canadians’ concerns this week, particularly in the wake of the Trump’s announcement of a 35% tariff on Canada. While domestic issues like “costs” and “rent” remain visible, the overriding worry is global: war, economic uncertainty, and Trump’s unpredictability loom large.

Top Issues: Affordability, Trump, and the Economy

The rising cost of living remains the top issue (59%), followed by Donald Trump and his administration (43%), the economy (36%), and housing (35%). Healthcare ranks fifth at 33%. These toplines reinforce a political environment where domestic affordability and global volatility intersect. Notably, the continued and relentless presence of Trump as a second-ranked national issue reflects just how deeply American politics are shaping Canadian concerns.

Government Approval: Solid and Stable

Approval of the Carney government sits at 52%, unchanged from the last wave. Only 27% disapprove, a minor uptick, but still far below pre-transition levels under Justin Trudeau. Since becoming Prime Minister in March, Carney has maintained a stretch of positive approval, even amid challenging economic and geopolitical headwinds.

Leader Impressions: Carney Strong, Poilievre Polarizing

Carney remains well-regarded by Canadians. Nearly half (49%) have a positive impression of him, while 28% view him negatively, a net favourability of +21. Regionally, his net scores are highest in Quebec (+32), Atlantic Canada (+26), and Ontario (+22). Older Canadians continue to be his strongest demographic base, with a net +35 among those 60+.

By contrast, Pierre Poilievre continues to polarize. His net favourability sits at -4 (38% positive, 42% negative), with higher negatives among women (-11), Quebecers (-29), and those over 60 (-16). His strength remains concentrated among Conservative supporters (+72) and rural Canadians.

Trump, meanwhile, remains profoundly unpopular. Only 12% of Canadians view him favourably, while 76% hold a negative opinion, yielding a net -64, largely unchanged from earlier waves.

Desire for Change: Flatlined

The share of Canadians who believe it is time for a change and see a good alternative remains at 31%, identical to two weeks ago. Another 33% want change but don’t see a viable alternative. Meanwhile, 36% believe the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, the highest that number has been in over two years, and evidence of a government that’s regained public trust.

Party Best Able to Handle Key Issues

This underlying approval for the federal government is also reflected in which party Canadians trust to handle the country’s top issues. On bread-and-butter economic concerns, the Conservatives retain a slight edge. Among those who prioritize the rising cost of living, 38% say the Conservatives would handle it best, compared to 31% for the Liberals. The same pattern holds on housing affordability (33% CPC to 30% LPC) and the broader economy, where the Conservative advantage grows to 12 points (46% to 34%). But the Liberals remain ahead on files where values and external pressures dominate. When it comes to managing Donald Trump and his administration, the defining issue for over 4 in 10 Canadians, 58% place their trust in the Liberals, compared to just 21% for the Conservatives. They also lead, though narrowly, on healthcare (31% to 25%). On immigration, however, the contrast is stark: 56% of those who prioritize it believe the Conservatives are best equipped, with only 18% saying the same of the Liberals. These splits highlight the complex terrain both parties face, economic frustrations are fuelling Conservative credibility, but Trump-era geopolitics and institutional trust continue to benefit the Carney Liberals.

Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals Maintain Edge

Fifty-eight percent of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 52% who say the same about the Conservatives. In both Ontario and Quebec, the Liberal accessible pool is at 57% or higher, a key advantage as both parties prepare for a long pre-campaign phase. The NDP trails far behind at 36%.

Vote Intention: Still Deadlocked

If an election were held today, 43% of decided voters would vote Liberal, compared to 40% for the Conservatives, a slight two-point gain for the Liberals since early July. The NDP is at 7%, down from 9%, and the Bloc is at 6%. Among those certain to vote, the numbers are virtually identical.

Regionally, the Liberals hold clear leads in Quebec (44% to 28%) and Atlantic Canada (55% to 38%). Ontario remains competitive (46% Liberal, 43% Conservative), while the Conservatives dominate in Alberta (58%) and Saskatchewan/Manitoba (52%). British Columbia remains tightly contested at 40% Liberal, 39% Conservative, and 14% NDP.

Demographic Trends: Age and Education Continue to Define the Divide

Among voters aged 18 to 29, the Liberals lead the Conservatives by three points (42% to 39%). That gap widens significantly among older Canadians, with the Liberals ahead by 12 among those 60 and over (49% to 37%). Women favour the Liberals by six points (43% to 37%), while men are evenly split. As always, education matters: among university-educated Canadians, the Liberals lead 49% to 36%. Among those with high school or less, the Conservatives are ahead 36% to 34%.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Despite the heat of a global trade dispute and the intensity of Trump’s new threat of tariffs, Canadian public opinion remains strikingly steady. There’s no spike in volatility, no sudden lurch toward opposition, instead, we see a country that’s learned to compartmentalize anxiety and go on with its summer.

Approval for the Carney government remains in majority territory. The desire for change is flat. And while affordability continues to top the issue agenda, the government’s measured, pragmatic approach to managing the Trump challenge appears to be giving it political breathing room.

As the federal government focuses on its negotiations with the United States, the electorate appears content, not thrilled, but confident enough to let Carney steer the ship. The real test may come in the fall, once the trade deal deadline passes and Canadians assess whether the calm of summer was well-earned.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from July 10 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey via partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

Confidence, Clarity, and Control: Building a Stronger Future for Mutual and Segregated Funds

Between March 26 and April 4, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 2,500 Canadian adults – 1,000 mutual or segregated fund holders and 1,500 members of the general public. This research, commissioned by Canada Life, explores how Canadians engage with these investment products, examining satisfaction, confidence, and barriers to entry. The findings reveal where mutual and segregated funds are performing well, where gaps remain, and how the industry can better connect with both current investors and those yet to enter the market.

Mutual Funds: Satisfaction Is High, Confidence Less So

Nearly two-thirds of Canadians with mutual funds report being satisfied with their investment experience (63%), compared to just 4% who are dissatisfied with their funds.

This strong satisfaction is driven by consistent performance and service:

  • 69% of holders believe their fund supports their long-term goals
  • 69% cite satisfaction with stable returns
  • 68% feel positively about diversification and overall value
  • 68% report satisfaction with the returns that they receive.

Investors are also satisfied with the broader experience. Most report high satisfaction with investment control (69%), customer service (68%), and quality of advice (68%), and ease of transactions (68%). These scores reflect the accessibility and reliability that mutual funds are known for.

Satisfaction with fees is lower at 55%, highlighting cost as a potential pressure point – especially as transparency and low-cost options grow in appeal. However, only 9% express concern, suggesting fees are noticed but not a major source of frustration for most investors.

Interestingly, just 43% of mutual fund holders feel their investments will meet their long-term financial goals, and 19% are unsure. This gap between satisfaction and confidence in long-term performance highlights a potential opportunity for advisors and providers to bridge experience and future assurance with clearer communication about how mutual funds can deliver on financial objectives over time.

Segregated Funds: High Satisfaction and Greater Confidence

Segregated fund holders report even higher satisfaction, with 74% saying they’re pleased with their investment (vs. 63% of mutual fund holders) while only 2% report being dissatisfied.

Segregated fund holders see the product as delivering strongly on key financial priorities, including alignment with long-term goals (78%), balanced returns (75%), diversification (75%), and risk protection (74%), a combination that drives consistently high satisfaction and low levels of dissatisfaction. Additionally, 73% are satisfied with the returns they receive, reinforcing the fund’s perceived overall value.

What’s more striking is that this satisfaction spans across nearly all major touchpoints:

  • 76% are satisfied with both the quality of advice and responsive customer support
  • 75% rate clarity and transparency highly
  • 74% are satisfied with ease of use and overall performance
  • 73% note being satisfied with the level of control they have over their funds

This consistency suggests that segregated funds are delivering a reliable, well-supported experience for investors.

Segregated fund holders show higher confidence, with 61% feeling assured their fund will meet long-term goals (vs. 43% of mutual fund holders). Just 13% express doubt, likely due to the added reassurance of features like death benefit guarantees and creditor protection.

Barriers to Investing in Mutual or Segregated Funds: A Missed Opportunity for Engagement

While mutual and segregated funds are well-regarded by current investors, uptake among the broader population remains limited – only 32% of Canadians have mutual funds, while 3% have segregated mutual funds. For those not currently invested in either product, the challenges are less about performance and more about awareness, confidence, and clarity.

Knowledge and Confidence Gaps Create Hesitation

For those who do not currently invest, specific barriers to entry are experienced. Knowledge gaps (37%), concerns about risk (24%), and uncertainty about how to get started (30%) remain significant hurdles.

Canadians Want Clear, Personalized Education

To build interest and trust in these products, Canadians need more tailored and transparent information. When asked what would help them feel more confident about investing, non-holders pointed to several key needs:

  • Understanding of risks and returns (52%)
  • Clear breakdowns of fees and charges (35%)
  • Insight into how products align with their financial goals (35%)
  • Information about guarantees or protection features (34%)
  • Comparisons to other investment options (34%)

The Upshot

This research highlights a critical opportunity, not just to expand awareness, but to close the growing gap between engagement and confidence. Satisfaction among mutual and segregated fund holders is strong: investors feel supported, well-served, and generally positive about performance. Yet for many, particularly mutual fund holders, confidence in long-term outcomes remains shaky.

The challenge isn’t dissatisfaction, it’s disconnection. Many Canadians, especially those not currently invested, don’t see mutual or segregated funds as relevant to their financial lives. This is driven by low awareness, unclear value, and uncertainty about how these products align with personal goals. It reflects more than a communications issue, it signals a deeper mindset shift fueled by economic precarity.

In today’s climate, Canadians aren’t just looking for returns, they’re seeking reassurance, control, and purpose. Even financially active investors want to know: will this product protect me when things change? Will it help me stay in control?

For advisors and providers, the path forward is clear:

  • Mutual fund holders need proactive, personalized guidance to close the confidence gap and reinforce long-term alignment.
  • Segregated fund holders require ongoing reassurance and retention strategies that highlight both growth potential and protection.
  • Disengaged Canadians need simplified, goal-based education and clear entry points that reduce friction and demystify investment products.

The takeaway is twofold: deepen the confidence of those already invested and reframe the relevance for those who aren’t. In an age shaped by financial precarity, success will go to those who can make investing feel not only smart, but safe, flexible, and empowering.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from March 26 to April 4, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.96 %, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Canada Life.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogInsightsPolls

Public concerns about climate up 15-points since October 2024

Between June 26 and July 2, 2025 (before the Texas floods), Abacus Data surveyed 1,500 Canadian adults to better understand perceptions of climate change. This article looks at how recent extreme weather is raising public concern, even as most Canadians remain focused on everyday issues like affordability and the economy. We explore the public’s call for balance between climate action and economic stability, and what these shifting views could mean for the Liberal government’s approach going forward.

A Major Concern Overshadowed by Immediate Issues

For much of the past year, the top issues facing Canadians have remained steady: the cost of living, healthcare, housing, and – more recently – Donald Trump and his administration. In this context, climate change has slipped down the list of urgent public issues, with only 15% now ranking it among their top three concerns. While still important, climate change is being overshadowed by more immediate, day-to-day worries. Political lines further shape this outlook, with 18% of Liberal voters and 26% of NDP supporters naming it as a top issue, compared to just 4% of Conservative supporters.

Yet despite Canadians’ day-to-day focus on other issues, concern about the long-term impact of climate change remains high, with 77% of Canadians noting that thy are worried about climate change’s future effects. This marks a significant 15-point jump in concern since October 2024, suggesting that, while Canadians may not be prioritizing climate action right now, they are far from complacent. Concern is especially strong among Liberal (92%) and NDP (93%) supporters, but even among Conservative voters, a majority (57%) express worry about the future.

Extreme Weather Events Bring Climate Impacts Closer to Home

Much of this growing concern can be traced to the direct experience of extreme weather. Today, 65% of Canadians believe that extreme weather events are becoming at least moderately more frequent or severe in their area, with just 9% believing otherwise. This view is higher among NDP (81%) and Liberal (72%) supporters, but is also shared by more than half (53%) of Conservative supporters.

When asked about changes they’ve noticed in their own communities over the past 5 to 10 years, Canadians point to a range of disruptions: more wildfires or wildfire risk (50%), unusual temperature fluctuations (46%), more frequent heatwaves (45%), increased rainfall or flooding (32%), and stronger or more severe storms (29%). Only 13% say they haven’t witnessed any significant changes.

Reflecting these lived experiences, 67% of Canadians are concerned about the impact of extreme weather events in their area over the next five years. This shows that concern about climate change isn’t just abstract – it’s becoming personal for many, as more Canadians feel the effects firsthand in their own communities.

Canadians Want Balance, Not Sacrifice

When considering how the government should address climate change, a majority (58%) believe the federal government should take a balanced approach, tackling both economic growth and climate action at the same time. Only one in four (23%) feel economic growth should be prioritized, even if it means delaying climate action. This indicates that most Canadians do not see this as an either-or choice – they expect progress on both fronts, rather than sacrificing one for the other. Even with economic pressures top of mind, relatively few are willing to see climate action set aside.

Again, there are notable political differences. Support for balancing the economy and climate is strongest among Liberal (70%) and NDP (64%) supporters, but nearly half of Conservative supporters (47%) also favour this approach. For the Liberal government, this emphasis on balance presents both an opportunity and a challenge: pursuing policies that demonstrate progress on both economic and environmental goals could help maintain and broaden support, but any perceived failure to deliver on either front risks alienating their core base as well as persuadable voters looking for a middle path.

Mixed Reviews on Government Action

Despite the strong public desire for meaningful climate action, many Canadians are dissatisfied with the Liberal government’s performance on this front. Only 20% feel the Liberal government is effectively addressing climate change, while a larger share (30%) believe it is falling short. Even among committed Liberal supporters, fewer than three in ten (27%) believe the government is delivering real progress on the issue. For the government, the gap between expectations and perceived results is a clear warning sign that more visible leadership and tangible progress are needed to regain public confidence, especially if the issue becomes more salient.

Canadians’ Priorities for Climate Policy

Asked what the federal government should focus on over the next few years, Canadians point to increased investment in renewable energy and clean technology (42%), improved infrastructure to withstand extreme weather (31%), and more collaboration with provinces and territories on climate goals (29%). Many also support targeted incentives: 27% want financial support for industries transitioning to sustainable practices, 23% would like to see more support for smart energy homes, and 13% want further incentives to adopt electric vehicles. These results make it clear that Canadians want to see practical, forward-looking policies that both strengthen the economy and help communities adapt to a changing climate.

THE UPSHOT

The spike in climate concern this wave is unmistakable. A growing share of Canadians now place climate change among their foremost worries, driven by a summer of grim visuals: lethal flash-flooding in Texas that has already left well over a hundred people dead and billions in damage (occurred after this survey was fielded) and a wildfire season on track to become Canada’s second-worst on record. These extreme weather events feed the broader precarity mindset – the sense that day-to-day life is perched on a knife-edge where extreme weather can upend routines, finances, personal safety, and displace entire communities without warning.

Rising alarm, however, does not automatically make climate change a ballot-box litmus test. Voters tend to weigh multiple anxieties, and pocketbook pressures still dominate. What our data do suggest is that climate may be emerging as a required discussion topic in national political conversations: leaders who cannot articulate how they will protect households from fires, floods, and spiralling insurance costs risk sounding out of touch. In other words, while climate may not yet decide elections on its own, it is fast becoming a credibility filter through which broader economic and leadership claims are judged.

Avoiding public numbness remains a strategic imperative. If heat domes, smoke advisories, and flood alerts become annual background noise, psychological calluses could form even as objective danger grows. The antidote is to keep the narrative personal and local – linking carbon policy to the cost of cooling an apartment during a week-long heat emergency or the premium hike after a basement flood. Framing climate risk in these everyday terms resonates with the cost-of-living lens that defines the precarity mindset and prevents the issue from slipping into abstraction fatigue.

Politically, a notable vacuum persists. Neither the Carney Liberals nor the Poilievre Conservatives have secured clear ownership of the climate file; both are still perceived as juggling emissions goals with affordability promises. With the NDP entering a leadership race and the Greens struggling for relevance, there is genuine space for a third-voice narrative that elevates climate from a balancing act to a defining priority. A credible contender who offers ambitious but economically grounded solutions – industrial-policy carrots over consumer-facing sticks – could capture the high-concern segment now looking for a champion.

Over the next year, our tracking will watch three signposts:

  • Whether climate climbs into the top-two unprompted national issues;
  • Whether leader scores on “has a credible plan to fight climate change” start to shift favourability and vote pools; and,
  • Whether partisan gaps in perceived climate risk widen, signalling sharper political sorting.

For now, extreme weather keeps climate firmly in the foreground of public dialogue, reinforcing the precarity mindset and creating an opening for bolder political entrepreneurship. Whether that translates into decisive ballot behaviour remains uncertain, but its role as an important driver in the conversation could be changing.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 26 to July 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Environment & Climate ChangeEnvironmental & Climate
 Change

Canadians Show Growing Support for Military and Defence Spending

Our national survey reveals an increase in Canadians’ positive impressions of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF), alongside growing trust in their ability to defend the country. There is also strong public support for the government’s commitment to increased defence spending.

While Canadians prioritize domestic roles for the CAF, such as defending national territory and responding to natural disasters, they also express nuanced views on key challenges and the complexities of military procurement in a shifting political landscape.

This survey, conducted among 1,500 Canadian adults from June 17 to 19, 2025, explores public opinion on the CAF and the recently announced increase to the defence budget. Several questions were tracked from a previous survey conducted in March 2025, during the federal election campaign. For full results, see here.

Growing support for the Canadian Armed Forces

In March this year, we asked Canadians about their impressions of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). We repeated the question in this study, and the results show a positive shift in public sentiment. A combined 67% of Canadians now have a very or mostly positive impression of the CAF, an increase of 7 points since March. Notably, the share of those with a very positive impression rose from 21% to 31%, a 10-point gain.

Meanwhile, 20% of respondents reported a neutral impression, down 3 points from March. Only 5% said they have a very or mostly negative impression, reflecting a 4-point decrease.

Favourable opinions remain strongest among Canadians aged 60 and older, as well as those living in the Atlantic region.

Next, we asked Canadians again whether they trust or distrust the Canadian Armed Forces’ ability to effectively defend Canada.  

Overall, 62% of Canadians say they completely or somewhat trust the CAF to defend the country. This represents a 13-point increase compared to March. The proportion of those who completely trust the CAF rose by 8 points, reaching 26%.

Meanwhile, 16% say they neither trust nor distrust the CAF, which is a 4-point decrease. Another 14% express some level of distrust, marking a 9-point decline.

Trust is notably higher among young Canadians aged 18 to 29. In contrast, older Canadians aged 60 and over tend to show more distrust. The highest levels of trust are currently reported in Ontario and the Atlantic provinces.

Backing the announcement of increased defence spending

First, we provided a brief reminder about the recent defence budget announcement by Prime Minister Mark Carney, confirming that Canada will meet its 2% NATO spending target this year.

Overall, 62% of Canadians strongly or somewhat support the announcement of increased defence spending. An additional 18% say they can accept it, while 9% oppose the announcement. Support varies by political affiliation, with 74% of Liberal voters expressing support, compared to lower levels among Conservative voters (60%) and NDP voters (51%). This aligns with our March findings, which showed that 65% of Canadians believe a new federal government should spend significantly or somewhat more on Canada’s defence than it does currently.

Support for halting U.S. military purchases slips

Given the growing connection between military equipment purchases and the ongoing tariff dispute with the new Trump administration, we asked Canadians whether they support or oppose the federal government immediately halting the purchase of defence and military equipment from the United States. This question was first asked in March 2025 and repeated in the current study.

Support for an immediate halt has declined since March. Combined support now stands at 56%, an 8-point drop. Those who strongly support the measure have decreased by 7 points. Meanwhile, the share of Canadians who neither support nor oppose the idea has risen slightly to 25%, an increase of 4 points. Opposition to an immediate stop has grown as well, now at 11%, up 3 points since March.

Support for an immediate stop continues to vary by political affiliation. Conservative voters show the lowest level of support at 46%, down 7 points since March. In comparison, support among Liberal voters stands at 67% (down 8 points), while 64% of NDP voters support the measure (a 9-point drop).

These shifts suggest that while a majority still backs the idea of halting military purchases from the U.S., support is softening across the political spectrum as Canadians reassess their positions in the context of evolving economic and diplomatic tensions.

Views on the CAF’s role and key issues

We asked Canadians how they perceive the importance of the Canadian Armed Forces across various areas. The top two combined ratings (essential and very important) show that Canadians view defending Canadian territory and sovereignty (72%) and responding to natural disasters in Canada (71%) as the most critical roles of the CAF. Providing jobs and training opportunities for Canadians (62%) and representing Canada internationally (61%) are ranking behind. Roles such as contributing to peacekeeping missions (57%), supporting NATO and international alliances (56%), and supporting global security efforts like in Ukraine or the Indo-Pacific (49%) are considered less critical, though still important, by about half the respondents.

The results highlight Canadians’ strong preference for focusing on domestic defence and disaster response rather than international military engagement.

As a final question, we asked Canadians what they believe are the real problems facing the Canadian Armed Forces today. The top concerns identified were outdated equipment (42%), difficulty recruiting new personnel (40%), and a lack of readiness for modern threats such as cyberattacks (31%). Issues seen as less critical by Canadians include declining trust in the institution (24%), high attrition rates (23%), harassment and misconduct (23%), and a lack of leadership or vision (20%). Additionally, 22% of Canadians felt they did not know enough to provide an opinion.

THE UPSHOT

In the early weeks of Prime Minister Carney’s new federal government, Canadians are expressing stronger support for the Canadian Armed Forces, with trust and positive impressions rising since March. This shift coincides with broad approval of the recent defence spending announcement, particularly among Liberal voters.

At the same time, support for halting defence equipment purchases from the United States is softening. Although a majority (56%) still favour the idea, support has dropped across all political groups, suggesting that Canadians may be weighing economic and diplomatic concerns more heavily in light of the ongoing trade dispute with the Trump administration.

Public opinion also reveals a well-defined set of priorities. Canadians want the CAF to concentrate primarily on domestic responsibilities, showing less enthusiasm for international military engagement. At the same time, Canadians recognize key internal challenges facing the military, including outdated equipment, difficulties in recruiting new personnel, and insufficient readiness for modern threats such as cyberattacks.

Overall, the results point to a growing alignment among Canadians in support of a stronger, better-funded, and more trusted military. While views on specific policies vary, there is clear momentum behind reinforcing the CAF’s role in national defence and readiness.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 17 – 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsInternational AffairsPolitics

Abacus Data Poll: Optimism reaches a multi-year high as Canadians ease into summer. Carney government maintains strong support, but vote choice remains tight.

From June 26 to July 2, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. Fielded after the House of Commons rose for the summer and the passage of Bill C-5, this latest wave captures public opinion at a moment of political calm and relative confidence. What emerges is a Canadian electorate growing more optimistic, generally supportive of the federal government, and still sharply divided in vote intention.

Direction of the Country

A defining feature of this wave is the rise in optimism. Four in ten Canadians (40%) now believe the country is heading in the right direction, the highest level recorded in over three years and up from 36% in our last survey two weeks earlier. While a plurality (44%) still feel things are off on the wrong track, this marks a continuation of a slow but steady trend toward a more positive national outlook. In contrast, views about the broader world remain deeply pessimistic, with only 14% feeling good about its trajectory, and just 13% saying the same about the United States.

Drilling into subgroup differences reveals that optimism is most pronounced among Liberal voters (60%), those living in Atlantic Canada (51%), and those aged 60 and over (45%). Men (44%) are more likely than women (35%) to say the country is on the right path. Regionally, 36% of Quebecers, 41% of Ontarians, and only 27% of those in SAlberta believe the country is headed in the right direction.

What’s Keeping Canadians Up at Night?

Canadians’ attention over the Canada Day weekend was clearly focused on global instability. When asked what was keeping them up at night, respondents most commonly mentioned “war,” “Trump,” “Iran,” and “tariffs.” The word cloud generated by these responses underscores a population still grappling with macro-level anxieties—international conflict, volatile trade dynamics, and an unpredictable American political environment. While domestic economic pressures remain ever-present, global turmoil looms large in the Canadian psyche.

Top Issues: Shared Concern, Divergent Priorities

On domestic priorities, the top issues facing the country remain largely unchanged. The rising cost of living dominates at 59%, followed by Donald Trump and his administration (46%), the economy (38%), housing (37%), and healthcare (32%). But the differences by partisanship and age are striking and tell a story about the political divide in Canada today.

Among Liberal supporters, Trump ranks as the second most important issue (60%), just behind affordability. They are also more likely to prioritize healthcare (37%) and climate change (18%) than Conservative supporters. For Conservative voters, the picture is different. Cost of living is top (63%), followed by the economy (46%), housing (35%), Trump (33%), and then immigration (30%). The gap on climate change is striking (18% among Liberals compared with 4% for Conservatives).

Age plays a critical role in shaping priorities. Younger Canadians under 45 are far more likely to cite housing (45%), job security (20%), and inequality (16%) than their older counterparts. Meanwhile, Canadians over 45 place more emphasis on healthcare (39%) and Donald Trump (55%). These generational distinctions suggest that while cost of living is a shared concern, the political pathways to addressing that anxiety diverge significantly depending on life stage.

Carney Government Approval Remains High

Approval of the federal government remains steady and in highly positive territory. Today, 52% of Canadians say they approve of the job the Carney government is doing, compared with only 25% who disapprove. These numbers are virtually unchanged from our last survey and continue a strong trend since Mark Carney became Prime Minister in March. Carney’s government is still in the political honeymoon phase, but what’s noteworthy is how long that honeymoon is lasting and how broad its base of support is.

Regionally, the Carney government enjoys majority approval in every part of the country except Alberta. In Ontario, 55% approve of the federal government, as do 52% in Quebec, 59% in Atlantic Canada, and 46% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Even in Alberta, often the epicentre of federal Liberal government criticism, a plurality of 40% say they approve of the government’s performance a noteworthy number in a province where federal Liberals have long struggled to gain traction. Men (54%) are slightly more supportive than women (50%), and among Canadians over 60, 58% give the government high marks.

Leader Impressions: Carney’s Strength, Poilievre’s Polarization

As with government approval, personal impressions of Prime Minister Carney remain strong and consistent. Nationally, 49% have a positive impression of him, compared to 28% who view him negatively, resulting in a net favourability score of +21. These numbers have held steady since the election and reflect a leader with broad, but not universal, appeal.

What’s particularly important to note is that Carney’s net positive scores extend across almost every demographic and regional subgroup. His favourability is +24 in Ontario, +24 in Atlantic Canada, and a striking +34 in Quebec. He is slightly more liked among men than women (+23 vs. +21), and gets his highest scores among Baby Boomers (+33). Only in Alberta (-10) and among Conservative voters (-38) does Carney’s net impression dip into negative territory and even among those Canadians, the numbers are not that bad.

The impression of Pierre Poilievre presents a very different picture. While 39% of Canadians say they have a positive impression of the Conservative leader, 43% say they view him negatively, resulting in a net favourability of -4.

More important than the topline number, however, is the polarization it reflects. Among Conservative supporters, Poilievre’s net favourability is high at +77. But among Liberal voters, it is -65. Among NDP supporters, it is -63. Regionally, his strongest numbers come from Alberta (+25) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba (+15), but he scores in negative territory everywhere else, including -25 in Quebec and -17 in Atlantic Canada.

The generational differences in views towards Poilievre are also noteworthy. Among those under 45, he has a net favourable impression. The opposite is true among older Canadians.

This level of polarization poses both opportunities and limits for Poilievre. His base is solid and enthusiastic. But outside of that core, he faces considerable resistance. Unless he can reshape perceptions among non-Conservative supporters, his pathway to majority support will depend on the erosion of the Liberal coalition more than expansion of his own.

Trump: Universally Unpopular

For contrast, impressions of former U.S. President Donald Trump are dramatically worse than either Canadian leader. Just 13% of Canadians have a favourable opinion of Trump, while 76% view him negatively yielding a net favourability of -63. Trump is seen far more negatively in Canada than any domestic political figure, and his continued influence on American politics remains a potent factor in shaping Canadian public opinion.

Desire for Change Continues to Erode

Perhaps the most remarkable shift captured in this wave is the continued decline in the public’s desire for change. Today, only 39% of Canadians say it is time for a change and believe there is a good alternative to the Liberals. That’s down from a high of 56% in December (when Trudeau hadn’t yet announced his departure), when just 11% believed the Liberals deserved to be re-elected. Now, 35% believe the Liberals should be re-elected, while another 26% say change is needed but don’t see a viable alternative. The “time for change” sentiment has not disappeared, but it is softening—and the government’s growing re-elect number suggests that Carney continues to shift some of the deep fatigue Canadians felt with the Liberal brand under Justin Trudeau.

Accessible Voter Pools: Liberals Hold the Advantage

Turning to accessible voter pools, the Liberals now lead the Conservatives by five points nationally—58% of Canadians say they would consider voting Liberal, compared to 53% who say they would consider voting Conservative. In Quebec, the Liberal accessible pool is even larger (60%), and in Ontario it sits at 60% as well. The NDP’s accessible pool remains historically low at just 36%, reflecting their ongoing struggle to gain relevance in the current federal dynamic.

Vote Intention: Tight as Ever

Despite these strong fundamentals, vote intention remains stubbornly tight. If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Liberal, while 40% would vote Conservative—a statistically insignificant one-point difference. The NDP is at 9%, the Bloc at 7%, and the Greens and People’s Party both at 2%. Among those certain to vote, the numbers are virtually identical. This suggests that while Canadians like what they see so far from the Carney government, it has not yet been enough to shift partisan allegiance among those who voted Conservative in April’s election.

Looking deeper into vote intention by region, the Liberals lead in Quebec (42% to 31%) and Atlantic Canada (47% to 37%), are neck-and-neck in Ontario (44% Liberal, 43% Conservative), and trail badly in Alberta (60% Conservative, 27% Liberal) and the Prairies (54% to 33%). In British Columbia, the race is also tight, with the Conservatives slightly ahead at 41% compared to 39% for the Liberals, and 14% for the NDP.

Demographic Trends: Age, Gender, and Education

The age divide in vote intention remains a defining feature of Canada’s political landscape. Among voters aged 18 to 29, the Conservatives head by 5, with the NDP in third at 12%. Among those 30 to 44, the same split hold. However, among Canadians aged 45 to 59, the Liberals take a five-point lead (42% to 37%), and among those 60 and over, the lead grows to seven points (45% Liberal to 38% Conservative).

There are also meaningful differences by gender and education. Among women, the Liberals lead by four points (41% to 37%), while among men, the Conservatives are ahead by two (42% to 40%). Education continues to be one of the strongest predictors of vote: among university-educated Canadians, the Liberals lead 49% to 35%; among those with only a high school education, the Conservatives are ahead 44% to 37%.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As Parliament rises for the summer and Canadians turn their attention to barbecues, travel, and the (hopeful) return of some normalcy, this wave of data shows a country feeling more optimistic than it has in years. The Carney government continues to earn strong marks, with a majority approving of its performance, and a growing share believing the Liberals deserve re-election.

Earlier this week, we released new polling on how Canadians feel about the government’s progress on its seven priorities. It provides more complexity to how people feel about what the government is focused on.

At the same time, Mark Carney’s personal brand is proving to be a key asset, broadly appealing across regions, generations, and even to some outside the Liberal base. But the race remains tight. Goodwill has not yet translated into vote switching. Conservatives remain highly motivated and unified behind Pierre Poilievre, even as he struggles to broaden his appeal. For now, the electorate appears content to give Carney a chance to deliver on his agenda.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 26 to July 2, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

Fifteen Years of Asking Better Questions

Today is Abacus Data’s 15th birthday.

What started as a two-person firm in Ottawa with a bold idea that great research could help leaders make better decisions, has grown into a team of 15 exceptional people based in Ottawa, Toronto, Hamilton, London, Edmonton, and now, Halifax.

It’s a moment of reflection. But more than that, it’s a celebration of what we’ve built together: a company that is now, I believe, the most influential, most impactful, and most sought-after polling and market research firm in Canada.

We didn’t get here by luck. We got here by choosing a different path, staying true to our values, and delivering consistent, thoughtful, and independent work.

2025: A Year That Put Us to the Test

This past year tested everything we’ve built.

The 2025 federal election gave us the opportunity to show what we do best: ask better questions, see beyond the headlines and horserace, and provide insights that truly matter. I’m incredibly proud of the quality of work we produced – from our deep-dive analysis of what was driving public opinion, to models that helped explain vote choices.

We didn’t just follow the campaign—we shaped how it was understood. Our research helped journalists, political leaders, advocacy groups, and everyday Canadians make sense of what was happening, and why.

We’ve long believed that good polling is about more than just numbers. It’s about narrative. It’s about trust. It’s about giving people a window into how Canadians are thinking, feeling, and acting at any given moment.

That belief guided us through the campaign and continues to shape every project we take on.

Fifteen Years of Growth and We’re Just Getting Started

Over the past 15 years, we’ve grown steadily and intentionally.

Our revenues have increased consistently by 10% annually. We’ve opened offices in Toronto and Halifax beyond our headquarters in Ottawa, with plans underway to expand into British Columbia and the Prairies. What started as a bold idea in Ottawa is now a national firm with a growing footprint across the country.

We were the first to bring multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to Canadian political research and we’re continuing to push the boundaries. Today, we’re leveraging AI to accelerate our workflows and unlock deeper insights from the data we collect. These tools are making our work faster, smarter, and more valuable for our clients.

We’re also building a reputation far beyond our polling reports. Our leadership team is in demand across every sector from healthcare to energy, from finance, to housing, to agriculture and food. We are asked to brief boards, advise executive teams, and speak to national and international audiences.

Personally, I’ve delivered nearly 50 keynotes and briefings in the past year alone. I’ve been on the road almost constantly, sharing what we’re learning about the Canadian public and helping leaders make sense of this moment. Identifying unmet needs is what we do best. Brands and leaders who identify them and meet them first, win.

We’ve built something that matters. And we’re still growing.

Enlightened Hospitality, Always

One of the principles that defines how we work is something called Enlightened Hospitality.

It’s a term I borrowed from Danny Meyer, the famed restaurateur and founder of Shake Shack, and it captures how we approach every client, every project, and every member of our team.

It means we put people first. Always.

For our clients, that means we’re responsive, we’re thoughtful, and we never treat you like just another file. We see ourselves as partners in your success. Our job isn’t to deliver a report – it’s to deliver clarity, confidence, and impact.

For Canadians, it means we take our responsibility seriously. When you answer one of our surveys, when you share your opinion, we listen. We reflect. We respect your time and your voice. And we work hard to ensure your answers lead to better decisions by the people and organizations who shape your world.

That sense of purpose drives us. It’s why we’ve been able to build long-term relationships with so many organizations across sectors from governments to associations, corporations, unions, and non-profits. And its why we defend on our independence fiercely and share insights regardless of who might like them.

It’s also why we’ve earned trust. You don’t become the go-to research firm for CEOs, media outlets, and policy makers unless you’re delivering something real. And we are.

Growing with Purpose: A New Home in Atlantic Canada

In the past year, we expanded our footprint once again opening a new office in Halifax and growing our presence in Atlantic Canada.

For years, we’ve worked with clients in the region. But we felt it was time to build a more permanent home there. We’ve added a senior lead who knows the region well, formed new partnerships, and deepened our understanding of a region that’s becoming more and more important in shaping Canada’s future.

This expansion reflects what Abacus is about: thoughtful growth, rooted in service, driven by curiosity.

It’s not just about entering new markets. It’s about being close to the people and places we’re trying to understand. It’s about knowing that good research is local, contextual, and connected to the lived experiences of Canadians across the country.

The Power of a Strong Team

From two people to a 15-person team spread across the country, our growth has been steady but intentional.

What hasn’t changed is the kind of people we hire.

Our team is kind, smart, curious, and committed to doing work that matters. They care about the client experience. They care about the integrity of the data. They care about getting it right.

We have methodologists and strategists. We have storytellers and designers. We have emerging leaders who are already shaping the future of this firm and our industry. And we have teammates who show up every day with humility and hustle.

They’re the reason we’ve become what we are. And they’re the reason we’re only just getting started.

A Canadian Company for This Moment

We’re proud to be a Canadian company and we’re optimistic about Canada’s future.

Yes, there are real challenges: housing, affordability, climate change, political polarization, and a changing global order. But there’s also immense opportunity.

Canada has what the world wants – resources, talent, stability, and beauty. But more than that, we have values the world needs: openness, fairness, pluralism, and a belief in the common good.

We also have a uniquely Canadian perspective. One shaped by diversity. One that sees strength in difference. One that believes progress is possible if we’re willing to listen, reflect, and act together.

At Abacus, we try to embody those values in everything we do. We believe in evidence. We believe in truth. And we believe that good data, when used well, can help build a better country.

That optimism shows up in our work. In how we help organizations navigate uncertainty. In how we help governments understand their citizens. In how we help advocates build coalitions and movements. And in how we show that public opinion isn’t just something to be managed, it’s something to be understood.

What Comes Next

We’re not slowing down.

We’re building new tools to understand the Canadian public more deeply and in real time. Our Abacus Communities platform is giving clients a direct line to Canadians. Our advanced analytics capabilities are helping us move from descriptive insights to predictive power.

We’re investing in new products, new partnerships, and new team members.

We’re also evolving our mission.

Yes, we still ask people questions. And we still help leaders make better decisions. But more and more, our job is to help organizations make sense of complexity—to be a signal in the noise.

To turn data into strategy.

To turn opinions into action.

To turn a moment into a movement.

A Final Thank You

If you’ve worked with us, followed our work, shared one of our polls, or answered one of our surveys- thank you.

You’ve helped build Abacus into what it is today: a trusted source of insight, a builder of bridges, and a team committed to making Canada better.

Fifteen years ago, this was just an idea.

Today, it’s a company with national reach, a respected brand, and a growing community of clients, partners, and readers who believe in what we do.

And tomorrow?

We’ll be back at it asking questions, listening carefully, and helping Canada make its next set of decisions a little bit smarter.

With gratitude and optimism,


David Coletto
Founder & CEO
Abacus Data

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after and influential full-service market and public opinion research agency.

But what we really do is identify the unmet needs of your audience and develop strategies for you to meet those unmet needs first.

Through qualitative and quantitative research methods, our deep experience and and wide perspective, we ask the right questions that capture insights, show you where things are going to be, and help our clients navigate some of their biggest challenges, deepen relationships with customers and stakeholders, and better understand the road ahead.

About David Coletto

David is one of Canada’s best known and most respected public opinion analysts, pollsters, and social researchers. He works with some of North America and Europe’s biggest and most respected brands, associations, and unions andis frequently called upon by news organizations,
to assess public opinion as events happen.

In January 2024, The Hill Times recognized him as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in Canadian Politics noting, “when David Coletto releases polling numbers, Ottawa listens.”

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

BlogCanadian Politics

Mark Carney’s Seven Priorities: Setting Up a Report Card on Alignment, Impact, and Perceived Progress

When Mark Carney became Prime Minister earlier this year, he introduced a new way of governing – one that sought to bring strategic discipline to a sprawling federal government. Instead of issuing dozens of separate mandate letters, Carney delivered a single, unified set of seven national priorities to guide every department and minister in his government.

The signal was clear: Canadians should judge this government not on its talking points or press releases, but on its ability to make meaningful progress on these seven interrelated goals.

In this environment, measuring perception matters more than ever. Clear priorities create clarity for citizens but also accountability. If the public understands what the government says it’s doing, they’re better equipped to notice when it falls short or reward it when it succeeds.

This report based on a national survey of 1,500 adults conducted by Abacus Data from June 17 to 19, 2025 offers a baseline assessment of how Canadians feel about the Carney government’s priorities. It examines three things:

  1. Are Carney’s seven priorities aligned with what Canadians care about?
  2. Do Canadians think achieving them would make a difference in their lives?
  3. Do they believe the government has started making real progress?

We’ll track these three indicators every quarter during the Carney government’s mandate and make detailed results available to subscribers (sign up for the mailing list here).

Clarity and Simplicity in at a Noisy Moment

Before diving into the results, it’s worth reflecting on just how unusual it is for a federal government to distill its goals into a simple, shared list. In a political environment defined by fragmentation and institutional overload, Carney’s seven-priority model stands out for its clarity.

But as any communicator knows, clarity can be a double-edged sword. It builds trust when people see things moving but it can also make inaction more conspicuous.

That’s why we’re taking this research so seriously. This isn’t just another approval tracker. It goes deeper to understand how people are reacting to the things the Carney government is doing. And it shows where expectations are rising, where gaps are emerging, and where the government’s coalition may be growing restless.

One of the central questions this research set out to answer is deceptively simple: Are the Prime Minister’s priorities also the public’s priorities?

Our data shows that, on balance, the Carney government’s seven priorities are largely in sync with what Canadians say they want from their federal government. That alignment is strongest on economic and affordability issues but holds across the board.

The chart below outlines the public’s ranking of these priorities in terms of importance. Canadians were asked whether each item should be a top priority, lower priority, or not a priority right now.

Here’s what stands out:

1. Affordability –continues to lead

  • 74% of Canadians say lowering costs and helping people get ahead should be a top priority, and another 16% consider it a lower priority.
  • That puts it at 89% total support—a clear signal that cost-of-living remains the dominant issue for most people.
  • Among Liberal voters, that number climbs to 91%.

Affordability also leads when you ask Canadians to pick their top three priorities and which would be the most meaningful personally.

Prioritizing affordability is clearly in line with public expectations. The challenge, as discussed earlier, is delivering visible progress on it.

2. Housing and Economic Unity Come Next

  • 65% say making housing affordable through public-private partnerships and skilled trades should be a top priority, with another 21% calling it a lower priority (86% total).
  • 66% say unifying Canada’s economy—removing trade barriers and fast-tracking key national projects—should be a top priority, again supported by nearly nine in ten Canadians (84% total).

3. Strong Support for Sovereignty, Fiscal Discipline, and Partnerships

  • 60% say protecting sovereignty through military, border, and law enforcement improvements should be a top priority, with 25% saying it should be a lower one. That’s 84% in total, including 87% of Liberal voters.
  • 52% say reducing government spending to allow private-sector investment and growth should be a top priority (81% total when adding in “lower priority” responses).
  • 56% support forging a new economic and security partnership with the U.S. and allies as a top priority, with 24% saying it should be a lower one (80% total).

These numbers suggest that while the “kitchen table” issues dominate, there remains strong public support for Canada playing a larger strategic and economic role globally, as long as domestic needs are not neglected.

In particular, the spending restraint agenda, sometimes assumed to be a Conservative talking point, garnered support from 80% of Liberal voters. This suggests that much of the Liberal coalition and a large majority of Canadians today are increasingly concerned with fiscal prudence.

Interestingly, because of how much they have dominated news and opposition coverage, immigration and a trade relationship with the US are least likely to be listed as a priority.

In sum, three- quarters plus believe all seven of this governments’ priorities deserve a place on the list making this list well-aligned with the Canadian mindset, right now.

The Coalition That Elected the Liberals Is Aligned – But Watching Closely

Among those who voted Liberal, the rankings were quite similar to the national population. This is important.

It tells us that Carney’s priorities reflect the values and expectations of his electoral coalition. But alignment alone is not enough. The people who chose the Liberals over other options are invested in these priorities—perhaps even more so than the general public. They expect delivery. And they’re paying attention.

Do These Priorities Matter Personally?

We also asked Canadians whether achieving each of the seven priorities would be a good or bad thing for them personally.

Unsurprisingly, lowering costs and helping Canadians get ahead again tops the list, with 74% saying it would be good for them, including 49% who say very good. Housing affordability, economic unification, and protecting sovereignty also scored highly—each seen as good for at least 60% of respondents.

But some priorities feel more distant from people’s everyday experience. Only 55% say forging new economic and security partnerships with the U.S. and global allies would be good for them personally. And just 49% say the same for immigration reform.

This gap between macro-importance and micro-relevance is one of the biggest communications challenges facing the Carney government. Canadians are not opposed to big-picture ideas—but they will need clear examples to show how addressing these priorities has a tangible impact on their lives.  

Alignment Isn’t the Problem. Expectation Management Might Be.

Taken together, these findings show that the Carney government has crafted a list of priorities that broadly reflects the public’s own ranking of what matters. The total support (top + lower priority) for each priority ranges from 77% to 89%—a remarkably tight and high band.

The Prime Minister and his team deserve credit for this. This isn’t a scattershot list designed to appeal to every niche audience. It’s a tight agenda that reflects national concerns, is relatively non-partisan in tone, and importantly makes it easier for Canadians to follow and judge performance. It also helps differentiate Carney from Trudeau, which was essential in his election victory. The more people think Carney’s government is like Trudeau’s, the less they like it.

But alignment is only part of the puzzle. The government’s next test is to ensure that Canadians don’t just support the priorities but start to feel progress on the ones they care about most. As the progress data reveals, that’s where the greatest vulnerability lies today.

Measuring Progress: What Canadians Feel Matters Most

Perhaps the most vital part of this report is our assessment of perceived progress.

We are not asking people to assess whether a bill has passed the House or whether a regulation has been published in the Canada Gazette. We are measuring how people feel about progress.

And this matters, because in politics, perception often becomes reality. If people don’t feel like change is happening, it can damage trust—even if, behind the scenes, the policy machinery is hard at work.

So how does the Carney government fare so far?

Mixed Grades on Momentum

The results are telling. Canadians were asked whether the government has:

  • Completed the priority or made more progress than expected
  • Is on track
  • Made less progress than expected
  • Hasn’t started
  • Or if they don’t know

We have combined the first two options into a single metric – % On Track or Better – to summarize perceived momentum.

The highest-ranked priority on this metric is unifying Canada’s economy, with 49% saying the government is on track or ahead of schedule. Similarly, 48% say progress is happening on protecting sovereignty and 46% say so for the U.S./global partnership goal.

These are respectable numbers early in a mandate – and may reflect early speeches, symbolic visits, and signals of intent. Also, worth noting that this research was done just after the G7 but before the House of Commons passed Bill C-5, An Act to enact the Free Trade and Labour Mobility in Canada Act and the Building Canada Act

But the danger signs come into focus with the two most important priorities to voters:

  • Only 32% think the government is on track on affordability.
  • Just 30% say the same about housing.

Worse still: over half of Canadians believe the government is making less progress than expected or hasn’t even started on either of these. For example, 29% say the government has not started making housing more affordable, and another 25% say it’s making less progress than expected.

Among Liberal voters, the picture improves modestly – but still shows real risk. Just 42% believe progress is being made on affordability. That’s lower than the levels for economic unification, sovereignty, or international partnerships. The same goes for housing, with only 41% of Liberals saying the government is on track.

Why the Progress Gap Matters

The gap between priority and progress has real political implications.

When people care deeply about an issue and don’t see movement, it can create frustration, disengagement, or even backlash. The danger is not just that people will say the government is “not delivering”, it’s that they stop believing it can.

It is worth noting that the two issues with the least amount of movement are the priorities Canadians care most about- and say have the biggest repercussions on their lives.

In this environment, early signs of motion can punch above their weight. A highly visible investment. A strong first set of results. A well-communicated partnership. These can all shift the needle not just because of the substance, but because they begin to change the storyline.

A Framework for Understanding Government Effectiveness

The scorecard approach we’re using – Priority, Personal Relevance, Perceived Progress – is more than a polling framework. It’s a way of assessing the government’s ability to align policy with lived experience. And it’s the approach we take with the custom work we do with our clients.

Here’s a summary view:

The story this tells is simple:

  • The top two issues for Canadians are affordability and housing.
  • They feel those are where the least progress is being made.
  • Unless that changes over the next year, it may impact how the Carney government is judged.

Final Thoughts: Momentum Is the Message

Mark Carney’s priorities are clear. The public mostly agrees with them. But clarity raises expectations.

If this government is to succeed it must show that the machine of government is delivering on the things people care most about.

And if it wants to hold the coalition that brought it into office, that progress must be felt, not just announced.

We’ll be back in the fall with the next report card. And we’ll be watching to see whether perception catches up with ambition.

Subscribe or Request the Full Report

This baseline assessment is part of our new Government Priorities Tracker. Organizations can subscribe to receive quarterly updates, crosstabs, and tailored briefings on how public opinion is evolving. Sign up here to learn more.

About Abacus Data

We are Canada’s most sought-after and influential full-service market and public opinion research agency.

But what we really do is identify the unmet needs of your audience and develop strategies for you to meet those unmet needs first.

Through qualitative and quantitative research methods, our deep experience and and wide perspective, we ask the right questions that capture insights, show you where things are going to be, and help our clients navigate some of their biggest challenges, deepen relationships with customers and stakeholders, and better understand the road ahead.

About David Coletto

David is one of Canada’s best known and most respected public opinion analysts, pollsters, and social researchers. He works with some of North America and Europe’s biggest and most respected brands, associations, and unions andis frequently called upon by news organizations,
to assess public opinion as events happen.

In January 2024, The Hill Times recognized him as one of the Top 100 Most Influential People in Canadian Politics noting, “when David Coletto releases polling numbers, Ottawa listens.”

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Survey Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 17 to 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This research was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Canadian PoliticsPolls

68% of Canadians Take Pride in Their National Identity

Between June 17 and 19, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults to assess their sense of national pride, connection to the country, and overall outlook. Over the past year, Canadians have faced numerous challenges and uncertainties. Leadership changes, shifting global dynamics, and questions about Canada’s place on the world stage, particularly in relation to the United States, have contributed to a sense of instability. On a personal level, many Canadians have also been grappling with issues such as housing affordability, job insecurity, and access to healthcare. Despite these difficulties, Canadians have remained resilient. The survey findings reveal a strong sense of pride, particularly in Canada’s natural beauty, healthcare system, and societal safety. While economic challenges and future uncertainties persist, many Canadians maintain a resilient optimism about the country’s direction.

Pride in Canadian Identity

As Canada Day approaches, a growing number of Canadians – 68% in fact – express pride in their national identity, marking a subtle 2-point increase from 2024. While pride is widespread, there are notable age differences. Older Canadians, particularly those aged 60+, report the highest levels of pride at 83%, reflecting a deep connection to Canada’s values and history. In contrast, younger Canadians, especially those in the 30-44 age group, report the lowest levels at 59%, possibly due to challenges like economic instability and political concerns.

A notable shift has occurred among young Canadians aged 18-29. This year, 62% report feeling proud to be Canadian, marking a 13-point increase from 2024 when only 49% of this group felt the same. This surge suggests a new sense of national identity emerging among younger generations, potentially driven by global issues and an increasing recognition of Canada’s unique role on the world stage.

What Makes Canadians Proud

Canadians’ pride is largely driven by the country’s natural beauty, with 65% citing it as a primary source of national pride, reflecting the country’s vast landscapes, pristine wilderness, and dedication to environmental conservation. Alongside this, 62% of Canadians take pride in the peaceful and safe society that distinguishes the nation, an attribute that remains significant amidst global instability. Universal healthcare continues to be a strong source of pride for 60% of Canadians, emphasizing the country’s commitment to equity and access to essential health services.

What stands out this year is the growing pride in Canada’s distinct identity, with 56% of Canadians highlighting this aspect. This sense of difference feels especially significant given the current global political climate and challenges from our southern neighbor. As global tensions rise, Canadians are embracing their unique identity, seeing it as something increasingly worth celebrating.

Challenges to National Pride

While pride in being Canadian remains high, it’s important to recognize the challenges some face in fully embracing their national identity. Among those who do not feel proud, 53% cited disagreement with Canadian politics as a key barrier, while another 53% feel that economic struggles or lack of opportunities diminish their connection to the country. For many, these present-day challenges can overshadow the pride others feel.

Another notable shift is the increase in the number of Canadians – 39%, up from 31% in 2024 – who feel a lack of cultural identity or connection to Canadian values. This growing sense of disconnection may be linked to frustrations with institutions that are meant to represent them. In fact, 38% of Canadians report negative experiences with key institutions like healthcare, education, and public services. These issues, especially when they impact daily life, can erode the pride many have.

Interestingly, the perception of Canada’s global reputation has improved, with only 24% of Canadians now citing it as a reason for not feeling proud, a significant decrease from 42% in 2024. This shift may reflect growing confidence in the country’s direction and a shift in leadership.

Personal Connection to Canada

A majority of Canadians (63%) feel personally connected to their country. However, the intensity of this connection varies significantly across age groups. Older Canadians (60+) are the most likely to feel a strong connection, with 76% affirming their deep bond to the country, reflecting a sense of legacy and established relationship with Canada’s social and cultural fabric. In contrast, younger Canadians, particularly those aged 30-44, report feeling less connected, with only 54% indicating a personal tie to the nation. This age group, often navigating career and family-building stages, may struggle to connect deeply amidst issues like housing affordability and economic mobility.

Despite this, the fact that only 11% of Canadians report feeling disconnected from their country is a positive sign. It indicates that the majority still hold a sense of belonging, even if that connection may fluctuate depending on personal circumstances.

Canadians don’t just feel connected to the idea of Canada. They widely value its public institutions – even debated ones like the Senate, CBC/Radio-Canada, or Supreme Court – for their role in shaping the country’s identity. Across three dimensions – how important they are to what makes Canada what it is, whether they foster a shared national connection, and the sense of loss their absence would create, these public institutions are broadly appreciated by Canadians at large.

Quality of Life and Happiness

When it comes to quality of life, 48% of Canadians rate their situation as positive, consistent with 2024 (49%). Young Canadians (18-29) report the highest quality of life (56%) and saw the largest year-over-year improvement, up from 49% in 2024. In contrast, older Canadians saw a decline, with only 51% rating their quality of life positively in 2025, down from 58% in 2024. This decline may stem from rising healthcare costs, pension concerns, and a shifting socio-political landscape.

Sense of Well-Being and Optimism

Many Canadians (47%) report a positive sense of well-being and happiness. Older Canadians (56%) are more likely to express a sense of contentment, likely due to the stability that often comes with later life, such as established careers and retirement. However, those aged 30-44 are the least likely to report happiness (39%), potentially reflecting the pressures of balancing career, family, and financial concerns.

The age shift in optimism is interesting. While 43% of Canadians are optimistic, younger Canadians (18-29) report the highest levels, with a 9-point increase from 2024, possibly reflecting a sense of empowerment despite economic challenges. In contrast, optimism has sharply declined among older Canadians, with only 44% expressing a positive outlook, down from 53% in 2024. This may be tied to concerns about the future of social programs and the geopolitical landscape.

The Upshot

As Canada Day approaches, a resilient sense of pride in the nation’s identity endures, even as Canadians confront a range of challenges, personally, nationally and globally. Most Canadians continue to express pride in their country, with the nation’s natural beauty, universal healthcare, and peaceful society remaining key sources of that pride. Despite differing perspectives on Canada’s future, these enduring values resonate deeply, reminding many of what makes the country a cherished place to call home.

However, this pride is tempered by ongoing economic struggles and concerns about the country’s direction, particularly for Canadians aged 30-44, who face issues like housing affordability, economic mobility, and work-life balance. This age group is particularly affected by the broader precarity mindset, marked by increasing uncertainty and a sense of vulnerability in both personal and national contexts. For many in this group, this mindset creates a tension between their pride in Canada’s values and growing anxiety about their future, leading to feelings of frustration and a diminished sense of optimism about the country’s progress.

While the metrics of national pride, connection, and optimism have remained largely unchanged over the past year, this stability in a time of uncertainty is, in itself, a positive outcome. Despite economic challenges and the shifting political landscape, Canadians’ core pride and optimism have remained resilient, suggesting that, even in turbulent times, there is a steady foundation of trust in the nation’s values and direction. As global perceptions of Canada improve, there is a growing recognition of the nation’s unique role on the world stage. The nation’s natural beauty, safety, and inclusive values continue to foster pride, while Canadians express a growing desire for tangible change and greater stability in response to the uncertainties that define the current moment.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from June 17 to 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

BlogHappinessPolls

Abacus Data Poll: 52% think the Carney government is off to a good start. 28% disagree.

From June 17 to 19, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. Note, this survey was almost entirely done after the G7 Summit in Alberta but before the House of Commons passed Bill C-5.

As summer begins, our latest political tracking survey offers a snapshot of a Canadian electorate that appears cautiously steady. The public remains largely supportive of the newly elected federal government, giving Prime Minister Mark Carney and his team the benefit of the doubt. That support has not yet translated into a decisive electoral advantage for the Liberals but neither has it opened the door for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. As expected, public opinion is similar to what it was at the end of the federal election in April.

The mood of the country remains one of modest optimism, at least domestically. This wave finds that 36% of Canadians believe the country is heading in the right direction, a slight dip from last month but still a multi-year high. Views about the world (13%) and the United States (14%) remain strikingly pessimistic.

Approval of the federal government remains strong. Just over half of Canadians (52%) say they approve of the job the Carney-led government is doing, compared to 25% who disapprove. While this is a slight decline from our previous wave, the current approval rating is still historically strong and suggests this post-election “honeymoon period” is far from over.

Leadership Favourability

This stability is also reflected in views of Mark Carney himself. His personal favourability stands at +19, with 48% having a positive impression and 29% holding a negative one. That’s a three-point decline in positives and a two-point increase in negatives from the last survey, but the numbers remain well above where former Prime Minister Trudeau stood for most of his final years in office and in-line with Trudeau’s initial post-election period after the 2015 election.

For Pierre Poilievre, the data is more of a mixed bag. On the one hand, 41% view him positively and 41% negatively, leaving him with a net zero score. That’s significantly stronger than where his predecessors found themselves after an election loss. His accessible voter pool remains large and stable, with 53% of Canadians open to voting Conservative—identical to the size of the Liberal accessible pool. In other words, despite narratives painting him as politically wounded, our data suggests otherwise.

Carney Government: Is it off to a good start?

We also asked Canadians how they feel about the Carney government’s early performance. Over half (52%) say the government is off to a good start, compared to 28% who feel it’s off to a bad start. Majorities in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia share this positive sentiment. Notably, even 1 in 5 Conservative voters agree the new government is off to a good start, as do 90% of Liberal supporters.

Does Carney have a mandate to radically change Canada?

When asked whether the government has a mandate to radically change the country, public opinion is more divided. Just under one-third (30%) believe the federal election result gives Carney a mandate for transformative change, while 32% say it does not. The largest share (37%) are somewhere in the middle. Among Liberal voters, however, nearly half (46%) say Carney has a strong mandate to bring about fundamental change, while only 19% say he doesn’t.

Issues: Cost of living, Trump, the Economy, Healthcare, and Housing

Top issues remain consistent. Cost of living is still the number one issue by a wide margin (61%), followed by Donald Trump and his influence on Canada (39%), the economy (37%), healthcare (34%), and housing (34%). Immigration comes in sixth at 28%. Despite recent wildfires and extreme weather, only 14% of Canadians put climate change in their top three issues—unchanged from earlier this year.

When it comes to issue ownership, the landscape is split. The Conservatives lead by 9 points among those who rank cost of living as a top concern, by 4 points on housing, and by a massive 27-point margin on crime and public safety. They also hold a 7-point lead on the economy. The Liberals, meanwhile, lead by 6 on healthcare and dominate when it comes to managing Canada’s relationship with Donald Trump, with a 45-point lead among those who consider that a top issue. On climate change, the Liberals are narrowly ahead of the Greens by 5 points.

Vote Intention: Liberals ahead by 3

On the ballot question, the numbers remain unchanged from earlier in June. The Liberals continue to hold a narrow three-point lead nationally, with 42% of committed voters choosing them, 39% supporting the Conservatives, and the NDP stuck at 7%. The Bloc Quebecois sits at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.

Regionally, the Liberals lead in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives dominate in Alberta and hold a lead across the Prairies. Demographically, the Liberals are ahead among those over 44, while the Conservatives lead slightly among younger Canadians. Interestingly, the Liberals are tied with the Conservatives among men but have a six-point lead among women. They also maintain a substantial 20-point advantage among university graduates, while the Conservatives perform better among those with high school or college-level education.

Accessible Voter Pools

We also find that the Liberals and Conservatives have equal sized accessible voter pools – the proportion of Canadians open to voting for the parties suggesting both still have a large group of people open to the party. The accessible voter pool for the NDP is at a historic low – at least in the 15 years we have been tracking Canadian public opinion.

Beyond policy, the emotional register of the electorate is worth noting. There is no discernible spike in anxiety or outrage, no significant movement in the desire for change, and little to suggest that Canadians are regretting their decision in April’s election. The number who believe the Liberals deserve re-election is holding steady, and there’s been no erosion in their accessible voter pool.

Put differently: while public expectations remain high for the Carney government, Canadians are still willing to wait and see. The political mood is not euphoric, but it is forgiving.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “As the Carney government passes the 100-day mark (since being sworn in on March 15), Canadians continue to express confidence in its direction and leadership. While there’s some softening in approval and favourability, the overall mood remains solidly positive. The government has not squandered its goodwill. In fact, more than half the country still believes it is off to a good start including one in five Conservative Party supporters.

The Liberals and Conservatives are locked in a tight race, with the Liberals benefiting from strong support among older and more educated Canadians. And despite speculation about Poilievre’s vulnerabilities, his support remains intact, with no signs of decline. In fact, we find that the size of the Liberal and Conservative accessible voter pools are the same.

On the issues, cost of living dominates as the central concern, followed closely by worries about Trump and the broader economic climate. This reinforces the Carney government’s focus on macroeconomic reform as a route to tangible, micro-level improvements in daily life.

But what’s striking is how little has changed. The electorate seems to be holding its breath, not yet demanding results, but closely watching how the government responds to their expectations. The summer ahead will be a critical test of whether that goodwill can be sustained, or whether a more demanding public mood will emerge as fall approaches.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadians from June 17 to 19, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2025 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2021, 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Fixing the Macro to Solve the Micro: How to Bring the Public Along

One of the defining features of Canada’s new political era is the Carney government’s explicit attempt to connect economic growth with improvements to people’s everyday lives. In nearly every speech since becoming Prime Minister, Mark Carney has emphasized productivity, business investment, and competitiveness, not just as ends in themselves but as levers to improve affordability, living standards, and fairness.

This is what I call “fixing the macro to solve the micro.” It’s an ambitious attempt to reposition economic growth, not as abstract GDP math, but as a tangible tool to solve the affordability crisis, fund better public services, and make daily life feel less precarious.

I think it’s essential and something governments, policy makers, advocates, and business leaders don’t spend enough time focused on.

But will it work? Do Canadians see the same link?

To help answer that, we recently asked over 2,500 Canadians a series of questions testing how they perceive economic growth and whether they believe it can improve their lives. We wanted to go deeper than just headline sentiment. This research isn’t definitive, but it begins to build a map for how communicators, policymakers, and public affairs practioners can bring the public along with a pro-growth agenda.

The findings suggest both opportunities and red flags. They also highlight the importance of framing, trust, and emotional resonance in the way we talk about the economy.

Most Canadians want to believe in growth—if it helps them

Let’s start with a high-level finding that might surprise some: a strong majority of Canadians (61%) agree that if Canada improves its economic performance through productivity, GDP growth, or business investment their personal standard of living will also improve. Just 6% outright disagree.

This is a good place to start. It suggests that, in theory, most people don’t see growth as irrelevant or disconnected from their day-to-day lives. They’re open to the idea that stronger economic fundamentals can translate into tangible benefits. But this headline number conceals something more complicated and more cautionary.

Because while 61% agree, nearly 4 in 10 Canadians are either uncertain (26%) or outright skeptical (6% disagree). That means a significant portion of the population either doesn’t see the link between macroeconomic strength and personal well-being or doesn’t believe that link applies to them.

In other words, there is no consensus. Belief in growth as a rising tide that lifts all boats remains aspirational, not lived reality.

While 61% agree with the overall proposition, only 47% agree that when governments talk about growth, they believe it’s about things that will help them personally. That’s a 14-point drop.

Even more telling: 52% agree with the statement, “Even if the economy grows, I don’t trust that the benefits will reach people like me.” That’s the emotional core of the issue.

Growth, in theory, sounds good. But in practice, many feel it won’t reach them.

The trust gap: Growth is not seen as inclusive

The data reveals a trust gap a credibility deficit between what leaders say growth will do, and what people believe it will do.

Younger Canadians aged 18–29 are the most likely to agree (56%), while those over 60 are more skeptical, with only 44% agreeing and a combined 19% disagreeing. Regionally, optimism is strongest in Alberta (51%) and Quebec (54%), with Quebecers also registering among the lowest levels of outright disagreement (13% total). In contrast, Atlantic Canadians are more polarized—only 44% agree, and 27% disagree. British Columbians and those in Saskatchewan/Manitoba are the least likely to see themselves reflected in pro-growth government messaging, with just 44% and 34% agreeing, respectively. Notably, attitudes diverge dramatically based on how people feel about the country’s direction: 61% of those who think Canada is heading in the right direction trust that growth rhetoric is relevant to them, while just 39% of those who think the country is on the wrong track feel the same. This underscores that trust in government and overall national mood strongly influence whether Canadians see themselves in economic policy discussions.

 What drives skepticism?

For those who don’t think growth will help them personally, the reasons are telling. We followed up and asked them to explain why they don’t think growth helps them.

  • Fixed incomes and retirement – 17% say they don’t benefit from economic growth because they’re not in the labour market.
  • General pessimism and uncertainty – 12% feel the system is rigged or that future growth will just lead to more inequality.
  • Cost of living pressures – 12% say growth hasn’t led to affordability so far, so why would it now?
  • Distrust in government or economic policies – 6% say they don’t believe policymakers will implement growth strategies fairly.

Taken together, this paints a picture of a public that is not anti-growth but wary. Especially in a time of persistent precarity, Canadians need more than charts. They need proof.

Framing matters: Good things versus bad things

One of the most useful tools in the study was asking people whether they thought different economic outcomes would mean “good things” or “bad things” for them personally. It’s a simple but powerful way to surface emotional reactions and it reveals the deep psychology of economic narratives.

At the top of the list:

  • 66% say increasing productivity will mean good things for them.
  • 63% feel positively about expanding post-secondary programs for in-demand jobs.
  • 63% also view Buy Canadian policies as good for them personally.

These three top-scoring items have a few things in common: they feel pragmatic, tangible, and aligned with fairness or future opportunity.

But what about the rest?

Policies like restructuring the economy, increasing competitiveness, and building the strongest economy in the G7 also test well—but with slightly less intensity.

Then the story changes.

Support drops significantly when people are asked about:

  • Attracting more skilled immigrants (+11 net good),
  • Public-private partnerships (+21),
  • AI (a net -13, with 30% saying unleashing its potential would be bad for them personally).

For public-private partnerships, it’s not that people think they are bad for them, they just are not convinced they are good for them. There’s work to be done in explaining the approach and the benefits.

Overall, this tells us that even among self-described pro-growth Canadians, there are fault lines around automation, immigration, and privatization. These ideas may be essential for long-term growth, but they provoke anxiety especially when framed in ways that don’t emphasize fairness or control.

AI: The outlier with a warning label

No other economic topic we tested generated more resistance than artificial intelligence.

Only 17% think unleashing the full potential of AI will be good for them. 30% think it will be bad. 36% are neutral.

Opposition to AI cuts across age groups and political affiliations. Even among Liberal voters, the net score is barely positive. Among Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc voters, it’s net negative.

Why the worry?

It could be fear of job loss, automation anxiety, or a broader sense that AI will benefit a few and leave most behind. We have explored these themes in other research and consistently see them.

This should be a warning to anyone designing growth strategies reliant on AI productivity gains: unless you show how it helps ordinary people and mitigates harm you risk creating backlash, not buy-in.

What’s popular: Tangibility, national pride, and skills

If we step back and look at what tested best, there’s a clear pattern.

The most popular growth-related policies share at least two of these three traits:

They feel directly tied to work or opportunity.

  • Training for high-demand jobs scored +60 net good.
  • Productivity improvements were +63.
  • Infrastructure investments scored +47.

They reflect a national mission or shared benefit.

  • Buy Canadian policies: +57.
  • Building the strongest economy in the G7: +49.

They are framed as fixing something broken or helping Canada compete.

  • Restructuring the economy (+48) and increasing competitiveness (+49) score high—perhaps because they imply a problem is being addressed.

    “The Strongest Economy in the G7”

    “Building the strongest economy in the G7” was a core promise of Mark Carney’s campaign and remains the guiding ambition of his new government. It’s a phrase that signals confidence, global competitiveness, and national pride and the data suggest it largely resonates with Canadians.

    Over half (53%) believe achieving that goal would mean good things for them personally, while just 4% say it would mean bad things. That framing works because it’s both aspirational and concrete—it links Canada’s economic status to a personal sense of gain without needing to spell out every policy detail.

    But 43% are left uncertain about the impact. And support isn’t uniform. Men (60%) are more likely than women (46%) to see it as positive, and support is strongest among those 60 and over (65%) compared to just 42% among those aged 30 to 44. Regionally, Alberta (63%) and B.C. (61%) are most optimistic, while Quebecers are more ambivalent—only 47% think building the strongest G7 economy will help them, with a notable 33% choosing “neutral” and 7% saying it would be bad. Politically, Liberal voters (62%) and New Democrats (58%) are most likely to see this as a good thing, but only 42% of Bloc voters feel the same. In Quebec, in particular, the ambition may not connect as directly to people’s local economic priorities or identity. So, while the G7 framing works well as a national economic narrative, it’s clear that additional work, especially in places like Quebec and among younger voters, is needed to explain how that status translates into meaningful improvements in people’s lives.

    These nuances underline the need for differentiated messaging. While a national vision—like building the strongest economy in the G7—can be powerful, it must be supported by regionally relevant narratives and locally credible messengers. If growth is to become a unifying national mission, people need to see how it aligns with their values, responds to their local context, and meets their individual needs.

    So, what does this mean?

    This research offers three big insights for those trying to shape the national economic conversation, influence public policy, and design and execute it.

    1. Link growth to people’s daily lives and prove it

    Talking about GDP or competitiveness isn’t enough. Canadians want to see how those ideas translate into wages, housing, healthcare, and job security. They are open to growth but not abstract growth.

    If you’re building a pro-growth campaign, start with the tangible. Explain how boosting productivity or attracting investment leads to better schools, lower grocery prices, or more doctors in rural communities.

    2. Address the trust deficit head-on

    People need to believe that growth will be fair. That it won’t just benefit the rich. That it won’t leave rural communities, younger workers, or vulnerable sectors behind.

    Policy and communications must come with safeguards, guarantees, and real-world examples. This is especially true for areas like AI and immigration, where skepticism is high.

    3. Frame ideas in ways that resonate emotionally

    “Unleashing the full potential of AI” may sound visionary in a budget speech. But to many Canadians, it feels like losing their job to a robot. Try “harnessing AI to improve healthcare access” or “using AI to reduce wait times.”

    Similarly, “making Canada more competitive” works best when paired with fairness, not just profit. “Fair competition that helps small businesses thrive” lands better than “cutting red tape.”

    Final Thoughts: Start the conversation now

    We’re in a moment of political and economic transition. The public wants change but they also want clarity, reassurance, and inclusion.

    This polling isn’t a verdict. It’s a starting point. It shows that Canadians are not reflexively anti-growth. But they are cautious. They want to know: will this help me? Will it make my life easier? Can I trust you to deliver?

    The challenge and opportunity is to build a new pro-growth coalition, one built on trust, inclusion, and lived impact.

    The Carney government is betting that macro solutions can solve micro problems. But to make that case stick, they and all of us involved in shaping economic discourse must connect the dots between the abstract and the immediate, between national ambition and personal impact.

    If you’re interested in a deeper look at this data, please reach out to schedule a conversation with a senior researcher on our team.

    Methodology

    The survey was conducted with 2,585 Canadians from June 2 to 5, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

    The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.92%, 19 times out of 20.

    The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

    Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

    ABOUT ABACUS DATA

    We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

    We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

    And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

    Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

    Contact us with any questions.

    Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

    Canadian PoliticsConsumer BehaviourPolitics