Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied as the opinion environment holds steady amid global and domestic shocks.

We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. Most of the interviews were completed prior to the federal budget released on April 7.

Yesterday, we shared some data on how Canadians might react to Pierre Poilievre’s campaign narrative. Today, we look at the broader political opinion environment.

MOOD OF THE COUNTRY & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

The mood of the country is little changed from last month, with 39% thinking the country is headed in the right direction, and 46% think it’s off on the wrong track. Canadians continue to see the situation in the US and around the world as worse than Canada’s context: just 26% feel the US and the world are heading in the right direction.

Approval of the federal government is also steady with 41% approving (+1) and 44% disapproving (+2). Approval is up 3-points since early February and in line with levels observed throughout much of last year.

Net approval (approve – disapprove) is – 3 nationally +2 in BC, -28 in Alberta, -6 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -2 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec, and +16 in Atlantic Canada.

Among those who voted NDP in 2021, 38% approve of the federal government’s job performance compared with just 14% among those who voted Conservative.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Since last month, Justin Trudeau’s personal image has slid a bit to levels we saw in February. With 36% positive impressions and 45% negative Mr. Trudeau’s net score is –9. Among Liberal voters, 76% have a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau while 31% of NDP and 22% of Green Party voters feel positive about him. 79% of Conservative Party voters have a negative view of the PM.

Positive impressions of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh exactly the same as last month. Today, he enjoys a positive impression among 41% and finds negative impressions among 28% for a net score of +13.

79% of NDP voters have a positive impression of Mr. Singh as do half of Liberal voters (54%). 1 in 5 Conservative voters have a positive view of him while 57% view him negatively.

Today, 23% have a positive impression of interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen (+1 since last month) while her negatives are at 30% (unchanged) for a net score of -7. Mr. O’Toole finished his time as leader with a net favourability of -25.

VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would be marginally ahead of the Conservatives in the popular vote – 33% to 31%. The NDP is at 18% nationally while the BQ is at 8%, the People’s Party is at 5%, and the Greens at 4%.

Compared to our results at the end of March, Liberal vote is up 2, Conservatives down 2, NDP up 1. Compared to the election result last November, Liberals have gained a point and Conservatives have lost three points.

• BC: Conservatives are at 32%, and the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 27%.

• Alberta: 51% would vote Conservative compared with 23% for the NDP, 15% for the Liberal Party, and 5% for the People’s Party.

• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the Liberals at 28%, NDP at 23%, and the People’s Party at 7%.

• Ontario: The Liberals lead by 4 over the Conservatives (38% to 34%) with the NDP in third at 17%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario. In Toronto and the GTHA (where 58% of the population lives), the Liberals are at 43%, the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 16%.

• Quebec: We see the BQ and Liberals basically tied (37% to 34%) with the Conservatives at 15%, the NDP at 9%.

• Atlantic: The Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives (45% to 26%) with the NDP in third at 15%.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “With a war in Ukraine, rising inflation, a Liberal-NDP alliance, and a sixth wave of the pandemic, there is no shortage of factors that could cause the political mood of the country to shift – but so far opinions continue to trade in a fairly narrow range. While voting intention numbers don’t reveal it, Liberals will note that the disapproval numbers for the government and negative opinions of Mr. Trudeau have been notching a little bit higher in the first quarter of 2022 than through most of 2021. This could be a signal that fatigue with the incumbents has been creeping upward a bit, but it could also be a reaction to inflation and the stubbornness of the pandemic and the steps people are required to take to adapt to it”

According to David Coletto: “The political opinion environment has remained fairly stable despite many events competing for the public’s attention and concern including the invasion of Ukraine, the Liberal-NDP agreement, another COVID wave, interest rate increases, strong macro-economic indicators (unemployment rate), and rising inflation. If an election was held today, we would likely see a similar result to the last election. So far, little has happened that has fundamentally shifted the public’s preferences or impressions. We will continue to monitor the opinion environment as the Conservative leadership race unfolds and as Ontarians gear up to vote in the upcoming provincial election.”

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METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

How do Canadians react to Pierre Poilievre’s campaign narrative?

Abacus Data recently completed a national survey with a sample of 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. In that survey, we showed respondents who completed the survey in English the campaign launch video of Conservative Party leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre as a way to test reaction to his campaign’s central argument and message.

This is the video that was shown to respondents:

DO CANADIANS AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH WHAT HE SAID IN THE VIDEO?

Overall, half of English-speaking Canadians said they either strongly agree (23%) or agree (29%) with “what was shared in the video”. 24% disagreed (13% strongly) while 24% neither agreed nor disagreed.

Mr. Poilievre’s video was far more appealing to those who currently support the Conservative Party or the People’s Party with 79% of Conservatives and 83% of People’s Party supporters saying they agreed with what they say.

But there was also a sizeable minority of Liberal Party (36%), NDP (40%) , and Green Party (37%) supporters who also agreed with what was shared in the video.

Only about 1 in 5 Liberal and NDP supporters said they strongly disagreed with that Mr. Poilievre said in the video.

Most striking was the reaction to the video by age. Those aged 30 to 44 were the most likely to agree (59%) while those aged 60 and over were the least likely to agree (45%).

Unlike in other political behaviours or attitudes, education isn’t strongly related to reaction to the video largely because age is a greater predictor of reaction and younger Canadians, who are also more likely to have higher education levels, reacted more positively to the video.

There was also a relationship between vaccination status and agreement with the video. Those who did not receive a COVID-19 vaccine or those with one shot were the most likely to agree while those with three or more shots were the least likely to agree (and most likely to strongly disagree).

Earlier in the survey, we asked people for their overall impression of Mr. Poilievre. Among those who had an initially positive impression of him, 91% agreed with the video. Among those with a neutral view, 60% agreed, while only 20% of those who had a negative view of Mr. Poilievre agreed with the video.

DOES THE POILIEVRE CAMPAIGN MESSAGE PUSH OR PULL VOTERS?

Respondents were then asked whether they would consider or not consider voting for Mr. Poilievre if he was the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.

Overall, 49% said they would definitely or probably consider voting Conservative while 39% said they wouldn’t. Given that the accessible voter pool for the Conservative Party is currently at 41%, this suggests Mr. Poilievre’s message and a campaign could increase the appeal of the party.

The video did little to repel current Conservative voters (5% say they would probably not or definitely not consider voting Conservative) and could actually attract a small portion of current Liberal, NDP, and Green supporters. Most striking, 78% of those who currently support the People’s Party say they would definitely consider or probably would consider voting Conservative if Mr. Poilievre was the leader after watching the video.

The potential of Mr. Poilievre’s message to increase Conservative support among younger voters is clear from the survey. 51% of 18 to 29-year-olds and 57% of those aged 30 to 44 say they would definitely or probably consider voting Conservative.

In this same survey, the accessible Conservative vote share among those age groups is 37% and 43% respectively. This means that if successful, Poilievre could substantially increase the accessible Conservative voter pool among two demographics that have been a weakness for the Conservatives in the past three federal elections.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “Earlier this month, we shared polling data that found Pierre Poilievre has a clear advantage when it comes to both his image and support among Conservative Party supporters, a potential indicator of his support within the Conservative Party.

This test, while imperfect and limited, demonstrates that Mr. Poilievre’s broader message and argument may not be as offensive or unappealing to the general public as some may have assumed. In fact, his arguments about the housing market and taking back control of one’s life resonates the most with younger Canadians – a demographic that the Conservatives have struggled to connect with in the past.

However, one flag in the research is the more negative reaction older Canadians have to his message.  So on the one hand Mr. Poilievre may grow the Conservative universe among younger Canadians, but he could also risk support among more reliable older voters. His message is likely unlike anything Canadians have heard before and his leadership of the Conservative Party has the potential to realign Canadian politics. For those who say Mr. Polievre can’t win a general election, these results, at least, for now, suggest otherwise.”

And check out this recent piece I wrote about some core audiences in Canada that I think you’ll find interesting. To better understand Mr. Poilievre’s appeal, I think this should be required reading.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

What are Canadians thinking about Canada’s response to the Ukrainian invasion?

We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022.

UKRAINE AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSE

Most Canadians continue to believe that the federal government is doing a good job or doing as well as can be expected in terms of providing support for Ukraine. Over the last several weeks, these numbers have slipped marginally, however it remains the case that less than 20% of Canadians are critical of the Government of Canada’s effort in all areas explored.

There has been an increase in the number of people who believe that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine will be stopped, from 43% to 46%. Most Canadians think that Russia’s effort will fail either in the nearer term or over the longer term. Only 23% believe Russia will prevail and pressure from the rest of the world will abate.

Most people (53%) continue to believe that Putin will be gone from office in two years.

One in four people has made a financial contribution in some form, to support Ukraine.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians have been paying a great deal of attention to this conflict and have been solidly on the side of Ukraine. There is widespread support for helping Ukraine through a number of government measures and an understanding that some of what we can accomplish can only be of value if it is coordinated with our allies. This is a rare area of public opinion where there is little partisan division. Only People’s Party supporters seem noticeably different from the norm, more likely to think Russia and Putin will prevail and more critical of government efforts to support Ukraine.“

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Abacus Data is hiring a summer student. Come work with us for the summer!

Summer Student or Summer Internship

Abacus Data is looking for a Summer Student or Intern.

Location: Downtown Toronto, ON

Description: Full-time, 4-month contract (May 2022 thru August 2022)

Compensation: $25.00/hour – 37.5 hours per week

 Role:

Abacus Data is looking for an energetic, self-starting university student who is looking for a summer placement in Toronto to support the research team.  As a member of our growing and evolving team, you will report directly to the Director, Field, and Analysis and work closely on a range of client projects.

Based in Toronto, you will be responsible for contributing to all aspects of qualitative and quantitative research projects. We are looking for someone with an entrepreneurial spirit who enjoys to write, communicate, and learn about new topics.  A passion for research, politics, and public affairs is definitely an asset.

  • Experience in a customer service job
  • Prior research experience is an asset, but not a requirement.
  • An analytical mind, comfortable with numbers and data.
    • Advanced math or data software skills are not required but would be an asset.
  • Clear evidence of being detail-oriented, with a focus on delivery and error-free work.
  • Able to create stunning presentations that tell the story in our data to our clients and potential clients.
  • Strong interpersonal, writing, organizational, problem solving, and communication skills.
  • Ability to work with minimal supervision.
  • University or college degree/diploma in a related field.
  • Bilingualism (English and French) is not a requirement, but an asset.

Desired Skills and Experience:

  • Driven to succeed – self-starter, with a record of getting things done.
  • Detail-oriented – you are someone who is picky, relentless, and focused on delivering error-free, high quality work.
  • Innovative – you think of interesting and alternative ways to improve the quality of the work we output.
  • Collaborative – you can work closely with the team to leverage expertise to improve the quality of the work we do.
  • Persistent – doing whatever it takes to get things done with integrity and without excuses.
  • Independent – you work well without constant supervision and cherish your freedom to achieve business and personal objectives.

About Abacus Data Inc.

We are the only firm that helps organizations respond to the unprecedented threats of generational change and technological disruption.

Founded in 2010, Abacus Data is an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We work with brands and organizations such as Shaw Communications, the Canadian Bankers Association, the Mining Association of Canada, Food & Consumer Products of Canada, NAV Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association, Teck, Imperial Oil, Nestle Waters, Google, the Air Canada Pilots Association, NUPGE, HealthPartners, the Paramedic Association of Canada, the Canadian Pharmacists Association, and the Canadian Health Food Association.

We also work closely with Summa Strategies Canada and spark*advocacy to deliver the highest quality, data-driven strategic advice in Canada and North America.

Our vision is to be Canada’s premier data-based strategy firm with a reputation for outstanding customer service, creative thinking, and innovative methods.  We will do that by working harder, being more creative, and delivering more value to our clients, while doing it all with a smile.

For more information about Abacus Data, visit our website at www.abacusdata.ca

To apply for this position, please complete the application form here.

Timeline

Initial applications are due April 15, 2022
Shortlisted candidates will be contacted on April 18 and 19
Interviews will be conducted after April 19
Start date – Early May 2022

Media

Advantage Poilievre but Charest could be competitive: new Abacus poll.

We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022.

IMPRESSIONS OF CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES

Across the country, one in five voters says they have a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre and Jean Charest. Neither has particularly high negatives, with Poilievre at 21% and Charest a few points higher, at 24%.

Patrick Brown and Leslyn Lewis are less well known, and both have an equal mix of positive and negative impressions.

Among current Conservative voters, all four of the candidates tested have more positive than negative impressions, with Pierre Poilievre showing the strongest net favourables, with 45% positive and 7% negative. Charest follows next with 30% positive and 21% negative.  All four candidates have seen their positives grow among Conservative supporters since our last survey in early March.

Looking at the two candidates with the highest levels of positive impressions and name recognition – Pierre Poilievre and Jean Charest – finds Poilievre has more positives and lower negatives than Charest among current CPC supporters and those who say they would consider voting Conservative, while Charest has better numbers among those who are current Liberal voters.

When asked which candidate best reflects “your values and ideas about what the country needs”, Charest (32%) is top pick among Canadians overall, followed by Poilievre (26%) Brown (19%) Lewis (15%), and Aitchison (8%).

Among current Conservative supporters, Poilievre leads (46%) followed by Charest (24%), Brown (13%), Lewis (11%), and Aitchison (6%). Poilievre also leads among CPC accessible voters, but the margin is more narrow.

Regionally, Charest is favoured among all voters in BC and Quebec, while Poilievre leads in Alberta. Ontario is a close three-way race with Brown, Charest, and Poilievre all finding similar levels of support.

When asked which candidate they feel is most likely to win, across the country 22% pick Poilievre (22%) followed by Charest (16%). Almost half (44%) say they don’t know. Among current Conservative voters, 42% believe Poilievre will win, well ahead of Charest at 16%. Among accessible Conservatives, Poilievre is seen as the favourite, albeit by a smaller margin.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “If Conservative voters were choosing today, it seems clear that Pierre Poilievre would win – and might not need to count on a lot of second ballot support to cross the finish line. Jean Charest looks to have significant potential to attract supporters from outside the current Conservative voter pool, and his challenge will be about bringing new members to the party, in a way that creates concentrated support where he has the potential to be most competitive, which includes Quebec, Ontario, and BC. Among the accessible voter pool for the Conservative Party, preferences are somewhat more inconclusive, suggesting an interesting race could develop over the coming weeks and months if the party succeeds in expanding the tent. With the prospect of another half dozen less well-known candidates, this could either turn out to be a boon for the party by making the race more interesting and dynamic or result in a muddy crowded field without the excitement and drawing power of a close race among a handful of front runners.

According to David Coletto: “Pierre Poilievre is undoubtedly the frontrunner in this race. If current Conservative supporters mirror the views of the membership that will vote, then he’s significantly ahead of Jean Charest.

The real challenge for Mr. Charest is that while his positives have increased over the past few weeks among Conservative supporters, many of those who like Mr. Poilievre dislike him. In contrast, few of those who like Mr. Charest dislike Mr. Poilievre. Mr. Poilievre is not as polarizing a figure in the Conservative universe as Mr. Charest. At this point, it seems to me that Mr. Poilievre may have more room to grow if he can’t win on the first ballot given the low disapproval he has among Conservative supporters. If this matches how party members feels, this only reinforces his advantage.

The fact that current Liberal supporters like Mr. Charest more than current Conservative supporters confirm both the challenge of winning the Conservative leadership and the opportunity to win a general election.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

COVID-19MediaPolls

Is Co-ownership a Solution to the Housing Accessibility Crisis in Canada? Here’s What Canadians Think.

By David Coletto

For video interviews by Skype or Zoom or audio interviews, please contact David at 613-884-4730 or david@stagesite.abacusdata.ca

To say that housing accessibility and affordability are a problem in Canada has become a massive understatement. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, the average home price in Canada hit $816,720 in February – a 20% increase from the previous year. Since February 2020, the average home price has increased by 50% from $542,286.

Given the rapid increase in prices, more and more Canadians are feeling “locked out” of the dream of ever owning a home. The gap between those who can buy and those who can’t is growing wider by the month.

When there is near consensus that a serious problem exists and the desire to achieve an outcome (owning a home) persists, the appeal of innovative solutions – like co-ownership – grows.

Earlier this year, Abacus Data was commissioned by the Key, a Canadian real estate tech company, to conduct a national public opinion survey to understand how Canadians are feeling about the housing market and to test their reaction to a new co-ownership model offered by Key that help people get on the property ladder.

The survey finds that 80% of Canadians believe every Canadian should have the opportunity to own a home, yet almost all Canadians believe homeownership accessibility is a problem in Canada, including 9 in 10 aspiring homeowners who feel “locked out” of owning a home someday. When informed about Key’s co-ownership model, 90% feel it would make homeownership more accessible.

Here are some details from the survey:

NEARLY ALL CANADIANS FEEL HOMEOWNERSHIP ACCESSIBILITY IS A PROBLEM IN CANADA.

An overwhelmingly majority of Canadians believe that home ownership accessibility – the ability to own a home – is a problem in Canada. In fact, almost half describe the issue as a major problem.

This view is shared by Canadian in all parts of the country, across all age groups, and across the political spectrum. But we do find that those living in BC and Ontario are somewhat more likely to feel housing inaccessibility is a major problem than those in other parts of the country.

Politically, differences across the political spectrum are not significant with Liberal, Conservative, NDP, and Bloc Quebecois supporters all agreeing that housing accessibility is a problem in Canada.

CANADIANS BELIEVE THAT EVERY CANADIAN SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A HOME.

The concern about homeownership accessibility is so widespread and deeply held because most Canadians (78%) believe that every Canadian should have the opportunity to own a home.

Again, this view is shared by Canadians in all regions of the country, across demographic groups, and across the political spectrum.

9 IN 10 ASPIRING HOMEOWNERS FEEL “LOCKED OUT” OF OWNING A HOME SOMEDAY.

Among those who don’t currently own a home, 88% agree with the statement “given the housing market in Canada, I feel locked out from my dream of owning a home.”

The feeling of being “locked out” is shared by aspiring homeowners across the country but is more strongly felt by those in BC and especially Ontario where 63% strongly agree with the statement.

Politically, 86% of Liberal voters, 79% of Conservative voters, and 93% of NDP voters agree with the statement.

HOW DO CANADIANS FEEL ABOUT KEY’S CO-OWNERSHIP MODEL?

Not surprisingly, few Canadians are familiar with the co-ownership model. Right now, about 1 in 5 say they are familiar with it with almost half (44%) saying they had not heard about it before.

Familiarity with co-ownership is higher in Quebec (80%) than in any other part of the country – largely because the model is more widely used than in other parts of the country.

But despite the low familiarity with it today, when respondents are informed about different aspects of co-ownership, reaction is generally positive.

Respondents were shown the following details:

After informing them about the co-ownership model offered by Key, 90% agreed that “this co-ownership model would help make homeownership more accessible to more people and allow them to take advantage of the benefits of homeownership.”

This view was consistent across the country, across demographic groups, and across the political spectrum. In fact, Liberal and NDP voters were more likely to strongly agree with the statement than supporters of any other party – although at least 89% agreed across all party supporters.

When asked whether co-ownership should be included as one of the ways to make units in new housing projects more affordable, 68% agreed while 8% said it shouldn’t. 24% were unsure.

Among renters, 93% said they found the co-ownership program at appealing, including half who said it was very appealing.

WHAT USING RRSPs FOR A DOWNPAYMENT FOR A CO-OWNED UNIT?

Right now, a first-time homebuyer who buys a co-owned home cannot access their RRSPs to help finance the down payment. But 84% of Canadians think this should be an option. This view is widely shared by Canadians from all regions, demographics, and political orientations.

CO-OWNERSHIP vs. RENT-TO-OWN

In the last federal election, the Liberal Party campaigned on a promise to bring in a rent-to-own program. Few Canadians were aware of this promise (19%) including only 22% of those who voted Liberal.

And when we provide information about rent-to-own models and ask whether people think rent-to-own or co-ownership is the better approach to making housing more accessible, 70% chose co-ownership compared with 30% who prefer rent-to-own.

Co-ownership was the preferred option in every region of the country, across all age groups, and across the political spectrum. Even 2 in 3 Liberal voters felt co-ownership would be a better approach to making housing more accessible and affordable than rent-to-own.

UPSHOT

As Canadians watch housing prices rise, there is a growing fear that many will be locked out from ever owning a home. This is especially true for young Canadians, those new to Canada, and those who may not be eligible for a traditional mortgage because of their religion or employment situation. They are looking for innovative solutions to a problem they don’t believe is getting solved by traditional tools.

This survey clearly shows that co-ownership is a model Canadians can support and think would help make homeownership more accessible to many who are otherwise “locked out” from the dream of owning a home. Awareness of the co-ownership model is low, but when people are informed about it, the reaction is overwhelmingly positive.

The data indicates there is little political risk in exploring this model as an option for those looking to get on the homeownership ladder but cannot because either their circumstances make traditional lending/ownership options unavailable or because home price increases continue to outpace their ability to save enough for a down payment.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from February 17 to 23, 2022. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Key.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Liberal-NDP deal: By 2 to 1 margin, public thinks it will be good rather than bad for Canada

We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022. All the interviews were completed after news of the Liberal-NDP confidence and supply agreement was reported.

PUBLIC MOOD & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

The mood of the country has improved markedly from last month. Today 41% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, up 7 while 43% think it’s off on the wrong track. In contrast, views about the direction of the world continue to shift negatively. Today, only about 1 in 5 Canadians believe the world is headed in the right direction.

Approval of the federal government is steady with 40% approving (+1) and 42% disapproving (-4). Disapproval is down and closer to the average we’ve measured throughout 2021.

Net approval (approve – disapprove) is +5 in BC, -28 in Alberta, -19 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +2 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec, and +18 in Atlantic Canada.

THE LIBERAL-NDP AGREEMENT

In a time when many people don’t follow politics closely, the fact that 64% say that they were aware of the arrangement announced this week indicates that it cut through as being something worth paying attention to for many people.

Awareness levels were fairly similar across Canada’s regions – above 60% everywhere but in Atlantic Canada (56%) and Alberta (59%). Older people and those with a university education were more likely to be aware, as were those on the left (73%) and right (71%), compared to the centre (56%).

When asked whether they thought the agreement would be good or bad for Canada, among those aware of the agreement, just under half (48%) felt it would be good for Canada while 27% felt it would be bad. (Of the sample as a whole – including those who were learning about the agreement during the course of completing the interview – 44% felt it would be good for Canada, while 25% felt it would be bad. 17% felt it would make no difference while 15% were unsure.)

Just over half of those on the right think the deal will be bad for Canada, while those on the centre are 39%-22% more likely to think it will be good than bad. On the left opinion runs 5:1 positive.

Positive reactions to the agreement were highest among Liberal voters (74%) and more than half of those who voted NDP in 2021 (55%) felt the agreement would ultimately be good for Canada. Only a small minority of Liberal, NDP, or Green Party voters felt the deal would be bad for Canada. In contrast, a majority of Conservative voters (58%) thought it would be bad for Canada.

Regionally, positive reactions were more likely in BC, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada than in the Prairies. In Alberta, about equal numbers felt it would be good and bad for Canada overall (33% good vs. 37% bad).

When asked whether the deal would be good or bad for them personally, responses followed a similar pattern with 44% anticipating upside, 25% downsides. Those on the left and centre were more optimistic about the personal impact, while those on the right were more pessimistic. Views didn’t vary all that much by income, indicating so far that the left-right differences have more to do with partisanship than economic class.

The biggest predictor of reaction to the deal was one’s vaccination status. Those who have not received a vaccination were more than twice as likely to think the Liberal-NDP deal would be bad for Canada than those who have received a single dose.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Since last month, Justin Trudeau’s personal image has improved somewhat. He enjoys a positive impression among 38% (+3) and negative impressions among 42% (-4), for a net score of –4.

Positive impressions of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh remained fairly consistent from last month. Today, he enjoys a positive impression among 41% (+2) and finds negative impressions among 28% for a net score of +13.

79% of NDP voters have a positive impression of Mr. Singh as do a half of Liberal voters (52%). 1 in 5 Conservative voters have a positive view of him while 73% of People’s Party voters have a negative view – the highest among any party voter group.

Today, 22% have a positive impression of interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen (+2 since Feb 22) while her negatives are at 30% (-2) for a net score of -8. Mr. O’Toole finished his time as leader with a net favourability of -25.

VOTING INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Conservatives would be marginally ahead of the Liberals but statistically tied with 33% and 31% for the Liberals. Compared with last month, the Conservatives are up 2 while the Liberal vote share is unchanged.

The NDP vote share is down 3-points since last month to 17%, its lowest level since early 2021. The BQ gets 7% nationally (33% in Quebec) followed by the People’s Party at 6% and the Greens at 4%.

• BC: Conservatives are at 32%, and the Liberals at 28% and the NDP at 26%.

• Alberta: 52% would vote Conservative compared with 20% for the NDP, 17% for the Liberal Party, and 6% for the People’s Party.

• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 53% followed by the NDP at 21%, the Liberals at 14%, and the People’s Party at 9%.

• Ontario: The Liberals lead by 3 over the Conservatives (36% to 33%) with the NDP in third at 17%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario. In Toronto and the GTHA (where 58% of the population lives), the Liberals are at 38%, the Conservatives at 35% and the NDP at 16%.

• Quebec: We see the BQ and Liberals basically tied (33% to 32%) with the Conservatives at 19%, the NDP at 8%.

• Atlantic: The Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives (48% to 27%) with the NDP in third at 18%.

We don’t see much evidence of widespread vote shifting beyond what we normally see. Comparing current vote intention with the reported vote in the 2021 federal election, we find that 91% of Conservative voters would stick with the Conservatives, 86% of Liberal voters would stick with the Liberals, and 81% of NDP voters would stick with the NDP.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “It’s too early to know how the Liberal NDP supply and confidence agreement will ultimately turn out but a few things can be observed in these findings. First, a lot of people noticed it, more than is often the case with political developments in Ottawa. Second, even though roughly half of voters routinely are unhappy with the Liberals, a good number of the unhappy are prepared to think this arrangement might be good or at least won’t be bad for the country or for themselves. There’s something of a suspension of routine and reflexive suspicion and cynicism – perhaps this has to do less with the policy at the heart of the agreement than with the idea of parties agreeing to work together and also to avoid another election. “

According to David Coletto: “

According to David Coletto: “A lot has changed in the past month. When we were last in the field, the trucker occupation in downtown Ottawa was in full gear and Canadians were growing frustrated with both the situation and the Prime Minister’s response. Today, there is a war in Europe and the rising cost of living are clearly top of mind to people. The trucker convoy is now in the rear-view mirror.

Domestically, most Canadians are aware of the supply and confidence agreement between the Liberals and NDP, higher than much of what normally comes out of Ottawa. And the reaction so far is generally positive and splits across partisan lines. By almost a 2 to 1 margin, Canadians feel the deal with be a good rather than bad for Canada. Both Liberal and NDP voters are generally positive about the deal and what it might mean for them or the country at large.

All these changes have led to a slight shift in the opinion environment in Canada. Canadians are feeling more optimistic about the direction of the country, impressions of the Prime Minister have improved slightly, but the Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked in current vote intention. We will monitor the NDP’s vote share as the drop from last month is noteworthy and outside the margin of error for the survey.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsCOVID-19MediaPolls

What Do Canadians Think of Canada’s Forest Products Sector?

Everyday, Canadians interact or use products produced by Canada’s forestry sector. Yet, despite this, few really understand how the sector works. That’s not surprising considering that more than 80% of Canadians live in or near a city, far from the managed forests that are the source of so many of the essential products they use every day.

But as the public’s focus on climate change and sustainability sharpen and the pandemic and geo-political events disturb supply chains, understanding what the public knows and doesn’t know about forestry is critical to policy makers, elected officials, and others who want to see Canada’s forestry sector thrive and grow.

Earlier this year, Abacus Data was commissioned by the Forest Products Association of Canada to conduct a national public opinion survey to understand what Canadians know about Canada’s forestry sector and how they feel about it.

Here is what we found:

CANADIANS WANT TO SEE A TRANSITION IN HOW OUR ECONOMY WORKS.

A clear majority of Canadians say it is very important or important to them that we transition the economy and grow green economy jobs, that we help companies and sectors reduce their carbon footprint, and that we meet our 2050 emission targets as set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.

These views colour how most Canadians view industries today, and forestry is not excluded.

POSITIVE IMPRESSIONS OF CANADA’S FORESTRY SECTOR HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS AS SECTOR AWARENESS INCREASED.

Today, 46% of Canadians have a positive impression of Canada’s forestry sector while 16% have a negative view. The remaining 39% say they don’t know enough about the sector to have an opinion. The reputation of the sector has improved markedly over the past two years with positive opinion increasing by 8-points since last year and 14-points since 2020.

Impressions of the sector don’t vary much by region or demographic group. At least 41% of Canadians living in every region of the country have a positive impression of the sector with those in BC (53%), Alberta (51%), and Atlantic Canada (47%) being more likely to have a positive impression.

We also don’t see much variation across the political spectrum. Views about the forestry sector are fairly consistent among those who would vote Liberal, Conservative, BQ or the People’s Party of Canada. NDP supporters are less likely to have a favourable view of the industry – but more have a positive view (38%) than a negative one (27%).

At the same time, when asked whether their impressions of the industry are getting better, getting worse, or not really changing, 30% of Canadians report their views of forestry getting better compared with 22% who say their views are getting worse. This is the best net favourable score (+8) that we have measured since 2018.

When asked to rate the industry’s performance on several measures, most Canadians feel the industry is doing well or acceptably on all, including:

  • 75% who think the sector does well or acceptably “providing Canadians with essential and environmentally friendly products”.
  • 72% who think the sector does well or acceptably “responsibly producing paper and lumber products”.
  • 68% who think the sector does well or acceptably “sustainably managing our forests”.
  • 61% who think the sector does well or acceptably “mitigating the impacts of climate change”.
  • 56% who think the sector does well or acceptably “partnering with Indigenous communities”.

PERCEIVED UNDERSTANDING OF THE FORESTRY SECTOR HAS INCREASED, AS HAS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT SPECIFIC FACTS ABOUT THE INDUSTRY.

Today, 80% of Canadians say they have at least a limited understanding of the forestry sector, an 8-point increase from 2021 and a 11-point increase from 2020. While few Canadians say they have a really good understanding of how the forestry sector in Canada works, perceived understanding across all categories has grown. Overall, 36% say they have either a really good understanding or a pretty good understanding of how the sector operates.

Among those who feel they know more about the sector, 72% have a positive impression of it, 18% negative, while 11% say they don’t know enough to have an opinion. Clearly as more people become aware of the industry, impressions improve.

The survey also explored whether Canadians were aware of certain facts about forestry in Canada, and if they were not aware, whether the information surprised them. Across all items, we see an increase in awareness of 3 to 6-percentage points from the 2021 survey, but awareness about the industry remains quite low. For example:

  • 62% are aware that “by law, foresters are required to replant and replace what they cut down or harvest” up 5-points since 2021.
  • Only 28% were aware that Canada leads the world in third-party certification, with more than two times the number of certified forests than any other country.”
  • Only 26% were aware that “when we build with wood, construction can be completed 25% faster, reducing carbon pollution during construction by 25% to 45%.”
  • Only 24% were aware that “Canada has retained more than 90% of its original forest cover.”
  • Only 23% were aware that “by building with wood, we can increase the amount of carbon stored in cities to a level that equals some of the most carbon-rich forests on the planet.”

MOST CANADIANS THINK CANADA IS NOT A WORLD LEADER WHEN IT COMES TO HOW IT MANAGES ITS FOREST.

Despite the growing awareness of how forestry in Canada works and the generally positive impression Canadians have of the sector, most Canadians aren’t ready to say that Canada is a world leader when it comes to how it manages its forests. Today, 31% think Canada is a world leader (up 3 points since last year), while 60% think Canada is about average, and 9% think Canada is below average.

UPSHOT

Over a short period of time, impressions of Canada’s forestry sector have improved substantially. Today, more Canadians have a positive impression of the sector, more say they have at least a limited understanding of how it works, and more aware of some key facts about it. Despite this, most remain unconvinced that Canada is a global leader in how it manages it forests – despite clear evidence to the contrary.

While these polling results are positive, they aren’t surprising. At a time when the next generation of Canadians are looking for renewable and sustainable answers to economic questions, Canada’s forestry sector stands out because of its considerable potential.

As the public’s concern about climate change and sustainable grows, so too will its demand for sustainable building materials. Canada’s forest products sector is well positioned to respond. I suspect its reputation will continue to improve as more Canadians learn about what the sector is doing to meet the climate crisis head-on.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from February 23 to March 1, 2022. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.%, 19 times out of 20.  The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by the Forest Products Association of Canada.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Do Canadians Still Watch Awards Shows?

Final voting for the Oscars kicks off today (March 17, 2022) and runs for just six days before ending on the 22nd. As the 94th annual Academy Awards (scheduled for Sunday, March 27th) quickly approaches, we were eager to explore just how many Canadians will be tuning in.

We conducted a national survey of 2,100 Canadians between January 18th and 20th in which we asked about their viewing habits and preferences regarding awards shows.

To begin, we find a majority of Canadians (59%) not really watching awards shows, with 57% indicating that they have been watching less often over the past few years.

This is most common among Francophone Canadians (66%) and residents of Quebec (65%), hinting that the language of the program may be presenting itself as a barrier to these individuals. Furthermore, 63% of those 60 and older and 61% of female Canadians are watching awards shows less often. Interestingly, 10% of those between the ages of 18-29 indicated that they watch every single awards show, with the same percent also stating that they have watched more often over the past few years. But how often will Canadians be viewing in the future?

Well, 49% of Canadians indicated that they will be watching awards shows less often in the future, while 45% will be watching just as often and 6% will be watching more often. Those who are most likely to be tuning in less often in the future include those 60 and older (55%), and those living in Atlantic Canada (61%). On the other hand, 14% of those between the ages of 18 and 29 stated that they will be watching more often.

Reasons for watching less in the future include a lack of interest, lack of enjoyment, and concerns regarding politics and the nomination/voting process. A majority (56%) of those who indicated that they would be watching awards shows less often in the future feel this way due to a lack of interest. This is most common among Quebec residents (67%) and Francophone Canadians (68%).

We also wanted to take a look at the different elements to awards shows and how important they are to Canadians. While all aspects tested were deemed at least moderately important by a majority of Canadians, the performances (92%), special awards (90%), and regular awards (90%) were deemed the most important. This was closely followed by speeches (77%) and the red carpet (70%).

The recent 2022 Golden Globe Awards took place in a privately held ceremony with the winners announced via its social media platforms and press releases. When asked how they would feel about this format being used in the future, 43% of Canadians revealed that they did not like this model. This was most common among those between the ages of 18 and 29 (33%), and those who indicated watching every single awards show (25%). Interestingly, those from Atlantic Canada were among the most likely to like this model a lot (20%).

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted with n=2,100 from January 18th to 20th, 2022. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.14%, 19 times out of 20

The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls

Canadian Support for Ukraine Assistance Growing in Light of Russian Invasion

Canadians have been closely following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with 7 in 10 outright in support of Canadian assistance to Ukraine’s defense efforts today and only 1 in 10 opposed. This represents a significant shift from support recorded in January of this year.

We also find a fairly clear consensus on Ukraine assistance. It is cross partisan and spans geography

RUSSIAN INSTIGATION WELL UNDERSTOOD

Most Canadians’ understanding of the war is that Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded to expand Russia’s power. Few believe Russia’s stated goal of trying to protect innocent people in Ukraine from persecution or genocide is the cause of the invasion.

Canadians are aligned on Russia’s responsibility for the conflict, with only some marginal, soft agreement that the US or Ukraine hold some responsibility for the war.

STRONG SUPPORT FOR ECONOMIC SANCTIONS, ASSET SEIZURE & LARGE-SCALE AID EFFORTS

In looking to understand public support dynamics, we tested several simple policy ideas, some of which have been pursued in one form or another since we began fielding our survey.

We find widespread public appetite for the Canadian government enforcing economic measures like banning the import and use of Russian goods and services, or the banning of Canadian exports to Russia.

Most Canadians specifically support a Canadian import ban on the use of Russian oil and associated petroleum products. Few see a downside to trade-specific sanctions. Most Canadians also feel uncomfortable purchasing Russian products today, and few agree that sanctions should be avoided due to their detrimental impact on everyday Russians.

There is likewise clear popular support for seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs in Canada, and intaking displaced Ukrainian refugees into Canada on at least a temporary basis. Beyond those consensus points, a clear majority of Canadians either accept or outright support:

  • Spending significant government resources on humanitarian, economic, and military equipment aid to Ukraine.
  • Expelling Russian diplomats from Canada and cutting off diplomatic relations.
  • Allowing all Ukrainians displaced by the war to stay in Canada permanently.

CANADIANS SEE DEVASTATING IMPACT ON CIVILIANS; THINK WORST IS YET TO COME

In asking the public to assess whether or not a series of statements about the war are true or false, we find that Canadians understand that this is not merely a war between armed groups relegated to disputed border areas, but that Russian forces are actively engaging in a full-scale invasion, committing war crimes and causing mass civilian casualties.

And despite these tragic outcomes, most believe that Russia is yet holding back releasing the full might of its forces.

There is less consensus on how strong or effective Ukraine’s defense has been and how long it will hold, with most assuming Russia has made important strategic gains in Ukraine.

Few Canadians are comfortable with Ukraine folding for the sake of wider peace, with only 1 in 4 agreeing that Russia effectively conquering Ukraine is preferable if it avoids a bigger war between Russia and the west. At the same time, Canadians appreciate that western involvement in the Russian war on Ukraine risks starting a nuclear conflict.

PUBLIC PREFERENCE FOR A NO-FLY ZONE; MANY SEE SCENARIO FOR CDN BOOTS ON GROUND

Despite this, most Canadians would opt for enforcing a no-fly zone. Mindful to stress the consequences of NATO enforcement, we framed a no-fly zone tradeoff as:

“Some people say that NATO should institute a no-fly zone over Ukraine in order to safeguard Ukrainians from Russian air attacks.

Others say the risk is too great and that NATO should not institute a no-fly zone, as enforcement would inevitably lead to a direct conflict between NATO & Russia, resulting in an even greater war.

Which is closer to your view?”

2 in 3 Canadians support NATO enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine even at the risk of provoking a greater conflict between NATO and Russia. Even Canadians who believe nuclear war is a risk in this conflict support the no-fly zone, suggesting the trade-offs of a no-fly zone are well appreciated by the Canadian public.

When might Canadians find sending Canadian soldiers into Ukraine in a combat role against Russia appropriate?

7 in 10 would be willing to support sending in the Canadian Forces in some circumstances, particularly if Russia moved beyond Ukraine and into a NATO country, or if our NATO allies were already planning to move in their own troops. Many would also support this direct intervention should nuclear weapons be used in Ukraine, or once all other measures taken prove to be insufficient in deterring Russia.

Despite a strong desire to do more, the vast majority of Canadians feel the Government of Canada has at least been doing as well as can be expected on measures to pressure Russia to stop its aggression. Canadians particularly assign high marks to their government’s work on sanctions, collaboration with allies, and humanitarian assistance.  Few think the federal government has done a poor job on any item we asked about.

MOST STILL OPTIMISTIC ABOUT OUTCOME

At this time, the Canadian public remains optimistic about the outcome of the war. They believe that either Russia will take Ukraine in the short term but will inevitably exit in the long term, or that Russia will be stopped from its conquest by the international response. There is less consensus on what happens to Vladimir Putin.  Half believe 2 years from now, Putin will continue to be President of Russia, while half believe Putin will be removed from office.

THE UPSHOT

The Government of Canada has clear, national and cross-partisan public support to pursue an aggressive pro-Ukraine foreign policy in the context of Russia’s invasion. Support was substantial before the Russian invasion and has only grown since.

Some response measures that seemed unthinkable two weeks ago now feel inevitable, as the conflict continues to rage with few signs of subsiding. Undaunted by the hypothetical risk of greater escalation or nuclear war, the vast majority of Canadians just want to help. They support NATO enforcing a no-fly zone, greater military and humanitarian aid, and have a deep and widespread willingness to welcome displaced Ukrainians to Canada. Most can even see scenarios in which they would support Canadian military on the ground in Ukraine.

This change in tune is a clear response to the atrocities we’ve seen Russia committing against civilians and the unjust nature of the Russian invasion. Canadians understand this war is the result of a cynical and malicious power grab and want both Canada and its allies to respond accordingly.

METHODOLOGY

This survey was conducted with 1,464 Canadian adults from March 4 to 8, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPolls