We recently completed nationwide surveying among 1500 Canadians. The focus was the levels of trust people have in institutional sources of information, and belief in different theories that indicate a lack of trust in broadly accepted facts. This is the fourth in a series of releases based on our findings.
As we noted in an earlier release, almost half of the population expresses limited trust in news organizations and official government accounts of events, and we see a clear relationship between institutional mistrust and belief in various conspiracy theories.
One in five (20%) think it is definitely or probably true that the “9-11 attack was an inside job”
18% think it is definitely or probably true that the “Royal Family killed Princess Diana”. Another 35% seem to feel it is plausible.
Almost 5 million Canadian adults (16%) think it’s definitely or probably true that “The US election was stolen from Donald Trump”. Another 29% think it’s possible or aren’t sure.
13% (or 3.8 million) think “Climate change is a hoax”. Another 16% think it’s possible or aren’t sure.
11% (or 3.2 million) believe it is definitely or probably true that “the moon landing was faked and never happened.” Another 22% think it is possibly true or aren’t sure either way.
An examination of demographic and other variables that correlate with these beliefs revealed:
Belief in these theories is higher among supporters of the People’s Party, those who have not taken any Covid19 shots, those who think media and official government accounts of events can’t be trusted.
Those who feel Pierre Poilievre is the Conservative leadership candidate closest to their values and ideas are more likely to believe these theories, when compared to those more aligned with Jean Charest.
Those who haven’t taken any Covid shots, are far more likely to believe in most conspiracy theories compared to those who have been vaccinated.
Among those who feel “official government accounts of events can’t be trusted” (which is 52% of the adult population), 84% also believe that “much of the information we receive from news organizations is false”.
Among those who ‘believe much of the information we receive from news organizations is false” (which is 44% of the adult population) 71% also believe that “official government accounts of events can’t be trusted”. The proportion of the adult population that expresses mistrust of both media and government accounts is 37%, or 7 million adults.
Those who believe “much of the information we receive from news organizations is false” are many times more likely to believe these conspiracy theories
THE UPSHOT
Our research is revealing that in many cases, belief in conspiracy theories is more likely a product of a generally mistrustful world view, rather than specific evidence related to any specific theory. It is strongly linked to mistrust of news organizations, and of governments.
Those who harbour this mistrust are more persuaded that secret societies are controlling events in the world, inclined reject climate science, to resist Covid vaccination – and more. What this illustrates is how challenging it will be for society to agree on public policy measures in the future, if rising mistrust in institutions and evidence are left unchecked.
Those in politics and news organizations can see in this data that the question of trust in institutional narrative is corrosive for each of them – they have a common threat from mistrust and a common interest in combatting the rise of mistrust, and it’s fellow traveller, the conspiracy theory.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We recently completed nationwide surveying among 1500 Canadians. The focus was on the levels of trust people have in institutional sources of information, and belief in different theories that indicate a lack of trust in broadly accepted facts. This is the third in a series of releases based on our findings.
As Canada and many other places in the world relax some measures designed to limit the harm caused by Covid19, albeit with a sense of caution about what the fall may hold, our research indicates that millions of Canadians have accepted some conspiracy theories relating to the pandemic and vaccination as fact.
19% (the equivalent of 5.6 million adults) believe “Covid vaccines have killed many people which has been covered up”. Another 25% think it’s possible or aren’t sure.
11% (or 3.3 million) think “Covid vaccines include secret chips designed to monitor and control behaviour”. Another 14% think it’s possible or aren’t sure.
9% (or 2.7 million) believe it is definitely or probably true that “Covid was caused by rollout of 5G wireless technology as electromagnetic frequencies undermined immune systems.” Another 17% think it is possibly true or aren’t sure either way.
An examination of demographic and other variables that correlate with these beliefs revealed:
Belief in these theories is higher among supporters of the People’s Party, those who self-identify on the right of the spectrum, those who have not taken any Covid19 shots, and those who think media and official government accounts of events can’t be trusted. Men under 45 are also more likely than others to embrace these theories.
Among those who haven’t taken any Covid shots, 55% believe or think it might be true that Covid was caused by 5G, 63% think the vaccines might contain secret chips, and 90% think it’s possible that the vaccines have killed many.
Those who feel Pierre Poilievre is the Conservative leadership candidate closest to their values and ideas are more likely to believe these theories when compared to those who feel more aligned with Jean Charest.
Conservative voters show above-average inclination to believe deaths were covered up but more resemble Liberal voters on the other two theories than resemble People’s Party voters.
THE UPSHOT
The remaining 10% of Canadian adults who have not had a COVID-19 shot are unlikely to get one, given how many of them believe the shots have been fatal for many people. Belief in this idea so clearly runs against all the facts provided by institutional and mainstream media sources it suggests that the starting point for believing something like this, is less about vaccines and more about mistrust of institutional sources.
The other two theories mentioned here (Covid caused by 5G and chips in vaccines) are more fantastical in nature and along with the other data we’ve revealed in our first three releases indicate that millions of Canadians are open to ideas that appear to have no plausibility. This erosion of rationality and trust is a syndrome that poses a risk to all organizations that depend on a thoughtful and engaged electorate.
There is little doubt that much of the foundation of the People’s Party rests on the willingness of supporters to believe things that aren’t true.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We recently completed nationwide surveying among 1500 Canadians. The focus was on the levels of trust people have in institutional sources of information, and belief in conspiracy theories. This is the second in a series called “Trust & Facts: What Canadians Believe”
• 44% (the equivalent of 13 million adults) believe “big events like wars, recessions and the outcomes of elections are controlled by small groups of people working in secret against us”. Almost as many agree “much of our lives are being controlled by plots hatched in secret places
• 37% (or 11 million) think “there is a group of people in this country who are trying to replace native born Canadians with immigrants who agree with their political views. This is an articulation of what is commonly referred to as replacement theory.
• 20% believe it is definitely or probably true that “the World Economic Forum is a group of global elites with a secretive strategy to impose their ideas on the world.” Another 37% think it is possibly true or aren’t sure either way.
• 13% think it is definitely or probably true that Microsoft founder Bill Gates is using microchips to track people and affect human behaviour. Another 21% say it’s possible, or aren’t really sure.
A deeper dive into demographic and other variables that correlate with these beliefs revealed:
• Belief in these theories is higher among supporters of the People’s Party, those who self-identify on the right of the spectrum, those who have not received any COVID-19 shots, and those who think media and official government accounts of events can’t be trusted. Those who feel Pierre Poilievre is the Conservative leadership candidate closest to their values and ideas are more likely to believe these theories when compared to those who feel more aligned with Jean Charest.
THE UPSHOT
Canadians who want to believe that Canadian society is relatively unaffected by conspiracy thinking will find little comfort in these results. Millions believe that our lives are controlled by secret plots to undermine our interests.
That such beliefs correlate strongly with the instinct to mistrust what media report and what governments say –is a challenge that threatens all institutions that depend on an informed body politic and is like a poison affecting our civil discourse. Only recently we’ve witnessed how a massive demand for the protection offered by Covid 19 vaccines fostered a strenuous effort by those who disbelieve government and media to deny the value of those same vaccines.
This question of whether people can and should trust in institutional voices and known facts is the central theme running through the current leadership dynamic within the Conservative Party leadership race. The data make it clear that to compete for votes from the People’s Party base, Conservatives could choose to embrace conspiracy thinking, but in so doing would alienate a good portion of others, and create hesitancy among half their current voter coalition.
Perhaps the most disconcerting thing in these numbers is the fact that mistrust of institutional accounts isn’t simply neutral skepticism – it is often accompanied by a willingness to believe dangerous contrarian theories. This threatens to undermine the ability of political parties, businesses, civil society groups, and governments to help build consensus and make progress together.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
A few months ago as the weather warmed, mandates lifted and some countries eased their rules and restrictions, we wondered if optimism about travel would rise.
With the pandemic and the trickle-down impacts continuing to impact our lives, choices and behaviours, travel is no different. Our pocketbooks are starting to oppose the predicted flood of post-pandemic spending, and there is no shortage of new stories about travel difficulties across the globe.
To understand how our travel habits and intentions continue to shift, we went into field late last month to test the pulse of Canadians. Here is what we found:
Travel still isn’t ‘back to normal’ in the eyes of Canadians, and this feeling continues to drive our travel desires. More Canadians now believe it’s possible to travel without feeling like we are living in a pandemic (1 in 4), but three quarters still believe that if they want to travel in the next few months, it will feel like ‘pandemic travel’.
The majority also say this feeling will prevent them from making plans. 44% of Canadians say if they want to travel in the next few months, it will feel like travelling in a pandemic and that just isn’t something they are interested in.
The sentiment of ‘a lack of normalcy’ is having a far bigger impact on international travel, compared to local travel. The closer the destination, the more likely it is to feel normal again. 63% of Ontarians say travel within their region is back to normal already, and 58% say the same about travelling to another region of the province. Both seeing a significant jump since October 2022, when they hovered between 20-30%.
Travel within Canada is also looking up. 48% say travelling to another province in the country already feels normal, a 38-point jump since October 2021.
Travel to the US and international travel have seen just as impressive jumps, but they still remain well behind travel within our borders. 28% say travel to the US already feels normal (this sat at just 4% back in October 2021) and 21% feel the same way towards travel to international destinations.
For these destinations, just waiting another season isn’t likely to resolve their laggard numbers. Folks aren’t convinced that all will be well in just a few months. Instead, they don’t see a return to normal until next year, or are unsure of a timeline altogether.
Perhaps then, it is no surprise that Canadians are still far more likely to be exploring our own backyard. Local travellers are far more likely to be easing into their old habits than international, US travellers.
Travel to the US and international destinations have seen the biggest uptake but still lag behind travel within our borders. Travel within one’s own province continues to be the most likely destination.
Aside from lacking a feeling of normalcy, the shifts in our pocketbooks over the last few months are impacting how we feel about travel spending and whether it’s worth it to take the leap back in.
Just under two thirds of Canadians would prefer to hold off on travel spending as prices rise. Given how long they’ve gone without it, 39% of Canadians are comfortable spending money on travel and leisure while 61% would prefer to hold off and wait to spend on travel since things are getting more expensive.
Those that are prioritizing travel spending tend to be younger (+8 pts among 18-29 year olds, +7 pts among 30 to 44 year olds), from higher-income households ($100K+), and parents of children under 18 (presumably trying to make the most of the years for family memories, or getting the kids out of the house).
THE UPSHOT
According to Oksana Kishchuk: All of our data indicates the return to travel continues on its slow and steady trajectory. Canadians aren’t interested in letting go of vacations and travel memories altogether, but we aren’t seeing an urgency to return that was once predicted.
Local travel (first within our province, but also within Canada) will likely continue to dominate for a few more seasons (especially as leaving the country through any airport continues to look like a big headache.
While we will still experience a long tail of the COVID-19 worries and concerns on the travel sector, I think the bigger challenge to the travel and tourism industry will be budgets and spending.
There are two ways to look at the last chart. On one hand- Canadians are seeing rising costs, and warning signs of an economic downturn up ahead, and are closing their pocket-books on items that are considered discretionary spending, like travel.
But on the other, we have close to 40% of Canadians who likely still see these rising prices, but are willing to consider spending on travel as more of an essential good, as they have been without travel experiences for so long.
We will continue to track this trend, and others, closely in the coming months.
For more insights on tourism and COVID-19, please reach out to Oksana, Director of Strategy & Insights at: oksana@stagesite.abacusdata.ca
METHODOLOGY
This survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 20th to 24th. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using a random sample of panelists invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The data was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. This poll was conducted and paid for by Abacus Data.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We recently completed nationwide surveying among 1500 Canadians. The focus was on the levels of trust people have in institutional sources of information, and belief in conspiracy theories. This is the first in a series called “Trust & Facts: What Canadians Believe”
44% THINK MUCH OF THE INFORMATION FROM NEWS ORGANIZATIONS IS FALSE
Almost half of those interviewed found themselves agreeing with the statement “much of the information we receive from news organizations is false.”
While this means a majority of Canadians have some trust in news organizations, more than 13 million adults (extrapolating 44% to an adult population of 29.5 million) don’t.
Those with no post-secondary education, Alberta residents and those on the right show greater mistrust. But by far the biggest differences are visible when we look at party affinity. The vast majority of People’s Party supporters don’t trust news organizations and a (smaller) majority – 59% – of Conservative voters feel the same way.
Among those who think Pierre Poilievre is the Conservative leadership candidate who best reflects their views, 55% don’t trust media information, while among those who identify with Jean Charest the proportion is much lower, at 27%.
52% THINK OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTS OF EVENTS CAN’T BE TRUSTED
More than half of those interviewed found themselves agreeing with the statement “official government accounts of events can’t be trusted”
As with trust in news organizations, those with no post-secondary education, Alberta residents and those on the right showed markedly higher levels of mistrust in government.
Majorities of People’s Party, Conservative and Green Party voters indicate mistrust. Those on the left and Liberal voters show higher levels of trust.
THE UPSHOT
For years there has been evidence that trust in institutional sources of information is more skeptically received – but these numbers point to a challenge that is bigger, and more influential in the political life of Canada than might have been expected. It’s harder for people to agree on what to do to solve collective problems if they don’t trust the basic information on offer by official and news sources. The challenge facing the Conservative Party is particularly acute – the voters they fear losing to the People’s Party have radically lower levels of trust than the voters they need to win closer to the centre of the spectrum.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Earlier today, we completed our final survey of the 2022 Ontario provincial election. Throughout this campaign, we have been tracking public attitudes and intentions and our latest survey indicates that Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives are headed towards an easy victory tomorrow and very likely another majority government.
Here’s a quick summary of the results:
Among those who have voted already or are likely to vote tomorrow, the PCs lead by 13 over the Ontario Liberals (PC 40, OLP 27, NDP 22).
Doug Ford is the most popular leader in the province and a majority believe he has been a good or ok premier over the past 4 years.
Almost half of Ontarians believe the PCs will win the election
The NDP and OLP continue to almost evenly split support among “change voters”
DETAILED RESULTS
PCs WELL AHEAD: PCs AHEAD BY 13
If the election was held today, the PCs would win the popular vote easily over the Ontario Liberals. Overall, among those who have already voted and those likely to vote tomorrow, the PCs have 40% of the vote, followed by the Ontario Liberals at 27%, the Ontario NDP at 22%, the Greens at 4%, and the New Blue Party at 4%.
Regionally, the PCs are ahead in Metro Toronto, the rest of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton region, eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario. The NDP and PCs are statistically tied in Northern Ontario (note, the sample size in the north is quite small).
Demographically, the PCs lead among men and women and among those over the age of 30. Among men, the PCs get 45% with the Liberals at 24% and the NDP at 19%. Among women, the PCs get 35% followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 25%.
1 in 5 of those who said they voted Liberal in the 2021 federal election say they have or will vote PC in this provincial election.
BEST PREMIER? FORD LEADS BY ALMOST 20 POINTS
When asked which leader would make the best premier, 36% of respondents selected Mr. Ford followed by Ms. Horwath at 17% and Mr. Del Duca at 14%. 27% were unsure.
Among those who have already voted or are likely to vote, 41% selected Mr. Ford while Ms. Howarth and Mr. Del Duca are within a point of each other for second.
SO WHAT EXPLAINS THE PC ADVANTAGE?
#1 – DOUG FORD IS THE MOST POPULAR LEADER IN THE PROVINCE
Today, 39% of Ontarians have a positive impression of Doug Ford compared with 40% who have a negative view. His net impression score of -1 is the best of the four leaders we tested. Back in March 2020, 61% had a negative view compared with 23% who had a positive one.
When asked to describe Mr. Ford as a Premier, 64% described him as a great premier, a good premier, or an ok premier. Only 31% described him as either a bad or horrible premier over the past 4 years.
The relationship between one’s view of Mr. Ford’s performance and vote intention is very clear.
#2 – IMPRESSIONS OF DOUG FORD HAVEN’T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE CAMPAIGN AND NONE OF THE OTHER LEADERS HAVE MADE MUCH PROGRESS EITHER.
When we ask whether their impression of each of the main leaders has improved, stayed about the same, or worsened over the campaign, Mr. Ford’s net impact score is better than any of the others, except for Mr. Schrenier, the Green Party leader. For Mr. Del Duca, the least known of the three main party leaders when the campaign started, more said their impression of him worsened than improved.
#4 – THE PCs LEAD OR ARE COMPETITIVE ON THE TOP 5 ISSUES OF THE CAMPAIGN
The cost of living, housing affordability, healthcare, taxes, and the economy top the list of issues voters say will be most important in their vote.
When respondents are asked which party will do the best to deal with the issues they care most about, the PCs are well ahead or competitive on all five of those top issues including housing and healthcare.
#5 – THE DESIRE FOR CHANGE HAS BEEN STATIC OVER THE CAMPAIGN AND THE LIBERALS AND NDP CONTINUE TO EVENLY SPLIT CHANGE VOTERS.
50% of Ontarians definitely want to see a change in government, up slightly from last week but consistent with the view held at the start of the campaign.
These numbers are comparable to the 2021 federal election but far better for the incumbent PCs than the mood faced by Ms. Wynne and the Liberals as they sought re-election in 2018.
Among those who definitely want to see a change in the government, the Liberals and NDP split the vote almost evenly and this has not changed at all throughout the campaign.
One of the big reasons neither party has been able to close the gap with the PCs is because of this split.
#6 – HALF THINK THE PCs WILL WIN THE ELECTION AND ATTENTION TO THE CAMPAIGN REMAINS TEPID AT BEST.
When asked who they think will win the election, 48% select the PCs (up 3 from last week) followed by the Liberals at 21% and 9% for the NDP. Efforts by the NDP to position themselves as the party best able to beat PC candidates haven’t had much impact on public perceptions.
Attention to the campaign has increased slightly since last week but remains tepid at best. 43% of respondents say they have followed the campaign only a little or not at all.
#7 – FEAR OF ANOTHER PC GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN LIMITED AND THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT’S PERFORMANCE DURING THE PANDEMIC HAD LITTLE IMPACT ON PEOPLE’S VOTE.
In this survey, we asked respondents whether the PC government’s handling of the pandemic, PC Party candidates refusing to participate in local debates or their general feelings about Doug Ford made them more or less likely to vote PC.
In all three cases, 35% or less said they were less likely to vote PC because of those factors – insufficient, in my view, to create more desire for change.
Moreover, when we ask whether a re-elected PC government would make several policy areas better or worse, less than 40% felt things like education, healthcare, climate action, access to abortions, or the economy broadly would be worse if the PCs were re-elected.
The only item that almost half of the respondents felt would get worse if the PCs were re-elected was their cost of living – something I think people feel would get worse regardless of which party wins the election.
In contrast, the PC message about building more highways seems to have broken through with 40% feeling the quality of highways in Ontario would get better if the PCs were re-elected, higher than any other item we tested.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “Doug Ford and the PC Party are likely to win another majority government tomorrow. They will likely repeat the vote share they earned in 2018 thanks to a relatively low desire for change, good issue ownership on the top issues, and less desirable alternatives.
In 2019, prior to the pandemic, more than 60% of Ontarians had a negative impression of Premier Ford. Today, that is only 40%. He is the most popular leader in Ontario and while some feel he has been a bad premier over the past four years, most Ontarians feel he has done at least an ok job as premier.
This assessment, in the absence of an alternative that excites the public, is clearly sufficient for the PCs and Mr. Ford to be re-elected.
The public has not been highly engaged in this campaign. The campaign has lacked friction and despite efforts to increase the desire for change and offer up a compelling alternative, the Liberals and NDP have failed to make any progress in turning people against Mr. Ford or positioning either of their parties as compelling, exciting, or worthy alternatives. Among those who definitely want a change in government, the Liberals and NDP are essentially tied in vote share. Neither has gained ownership of any of the top issues in the campaign, including issues like healthcare and housing affordability that the Liberals and NDP often own.
Perhaps most telling, there is no fear of another PC government. Most think that if the PCs are re-elected, policy areas like education, healthcare, climate change, and others will either get better or not change. Less than 40% think those things will get worse under a PC government. Those kinds of numbers are not sufficiently high enough to defeat a government in a multi-party system where the alternative parties are unable to consolidate the change vote around them.
Finally, although the New Blue Party and the Ontario Party are likely to win a substantial share of the vote, it likely isn’t enough to prevent the PCs from winning another majority government. If anything, the PCs effectively pivoted away from a more conservative orientation into one that focused on issues people care most about it. The PCs will win this election because they have the most popular leader and are seen as best able to handle the issues more voters care about. The party’s handling of the pandemic has not been a liability in this campaign.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from May 29 to June 1, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Our latest nationwide public opinion survey asked Canadians a couple of questions about the topic of freedom, to test the resonance of Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre’s campaign promise to “make Canada the freest country in the world”.
The results suggest that the promise might not lack some pulling power, as the large majority of those we surveyed indicated that they felt Canada was relatively free already:
12% say that Canada is the freest country in the world today
47% say Canada is one of the freest countries in the world
30% say Canada today is pretty free compared to many other places
That totals 89% who seem to feel that Canada is not particularly short on freedom, while a much smaller group (10%) felt otherwise:
6% say Canada today is less free than many other places
4% say Canada is one of the least free countries in the world
We also asked people if they felt they had enough freedom to live their own lives as they saw fit. Again a large majority indicated that they were not lacking in freedom:
37% said they had lots of freedom to live their life as they wish
48% said they had enough freedom to live their life as they wish
15% said they did not have enough freedom to live as they wish
To fully understand the resonance of Mr. Poilievre’s message it is important to examine subgroup differences, including among the partisans he is attempting to win support among. Here is what our examination of those breakdowns found.
Canada’s freedom compared to other places:
21% of those who self-describe as on the right of the spectrum, and 17% of current CPC voters, think Canada is less free than many other places.
Alberta is the province where the largest number of people see a lack of comparative freedom in Canada, but even there that view is only held by 18%
54% of People’s Party voters believe Canada lacks freedom
Among those who feel Poilievre is the candidate who best reflects their values and ideas, only 22% think Canada trails other places in terms of freedom.
Personal freedom to live as I wish:
23% of those who self-describe as on the right of the spectrum, and 20% of current CPC voters, say they lack the freedom to live as they wish.
Alberta and Ontario are the provinces where the largest number of people see a lack of personal freedom, but that view is only held by 17%
61% of People’s Party voters feel they lack the personal freedom to live as they wish
Among those who think Poilievre is the candidate who best reflects their values and ideas, only 23% feel they lack personal freedom.
Among those who disapprove of the federal government only 27% feel they lack personal freedom
Among those who think Canada is headed in the wrong direction, 26% think they lack personal freedom.
UPSHOT
Conservative front runner Pierre Poilievre has based his campaign on tapping into a sentiment that is in somewhat short supply – the idea of Canada as a place where freedom is imperilled.
However, the ‘freedom’ pitch is about three times more resonant with supporters of the People’s Party than it is among supporters of the Conservative Party.
It may well be that the Poilievre strategy is based on drawing in and energizing those who would consider voting either Conservatives or People’s Party – and that strategy may turn out to be successful in a leadership race, where the goal is to get members to sign up and vote.
At the same time, it’s interesting to note that among Canadians in general – and even among a broader cross-section of those who vote Conservative – the message of more freedom is a bit like pushing string – people don’t feel it is solving a problem either in Canada or in their lives.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Our latest nationwide public opinion survey shows little change on several of the variables that we track, but we do see evidence that Pierre Poilievre has lost some popularity over the last few weeks.
VOTE INTENTION & VOTER POOLS
Since 2022 began, the Liberals have been tracking between 30% and 33%, and so has the Conservative Party. Our most recent vote intention measures find the Conservatives and Liberals tied with 31%, the NDP at 19%, and the BQ at 8% (32% in Quebec).
Compared to the results of the last election, the Conservatives find themselves down three points, the Greens up 3 (to 5%) and no other party has seen a statistically significant shift.
Regional patterns continue to show a three-way split in BC, large advantages for the Conservatives on the Prairies, a modest Liberal lead in Ontario, a tight battle between Liberals and BQ in Quebec and a wide Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada.
Accessible voter pools show that 52% would consider voting Liberal, 46% NDP and 41% Conservative. The CPC pool is 5 points smaller than we found five weeks ago.
PUBLIC MOOD
Today 38% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, while 45% think it’s off on the wrong track. Views about the state of the world remain much more negative.
Approval of the federal government is fairly steady with 40% approving and 43% disapproving.
Public opinion about the federal party leaders also shows little change with Trudeau having a net score of -8 (36% positive – 44% negative). We have seen no movement for Jagmeet Singh, he remains the most popular national party leader with a net score of +14. Interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen is at a -11 net score.
CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP
Compared to our results in early-May, Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre has seen his positives decline by 4-points and his negatives grow by 4-points, meaning he went from a net score of +1 to a -7 over that period. Among current Conservative voters, the shift has been more noticeable: Poilievre has gone from a +43 to a +28. With his negatives rising 7-points. He remains the most liked candidate among Conservative voters. During the same period, Mr. Charest’s image has held steady among all Canadians but his negatives are up 4-points among CPC supporters as his net score shifted from +5 to +1.
The other candidates are less well known, and we see little shift in views except for Mr. Brown who has seen his positives among CPC supporters drop 6-points.
Among all Canadians, when asked which candidate best reflects their values and ideas, Jean Charest comes out on top with 32% followed by Pierre Poilievre at 26% and Patrick Brown at 17%. Charest had a 3-point advantage on this question in earlier this month, which has widened to a 6- point advantage.
Among current and accessible Conservative voters, Poilievre continues to lead by a wide margin but his lead over Charest has decreased going from 28-points in early May to 21-points today among CPC supporters and from 14-points to 9-points among those open to voting CPC.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Interest rates are rising and inflation is relatively high, but there is no sign that these factors are weakening the standing of the Trudeau Liberals – current findings would result in another victory, potentially a larger one, if an election were held today.
The findings of the Conservative leadership race are interesting in two respects.
First, for the party to see its accessible voter pool shrink as the race gains visibility is not a good sign, in an ideal world the opposite would be happening. Over the last month observers are finding the party less – rather than more – appealing.
Second, the downward shift in feelings about Mr. Poilievre may serve as a warning to him and his campaign – his policy positions and style clearly have stopping power, and he continues to hold a wide popularity lead among Conservative voters, but he is seeing in these results that his approach has the potential to create negative reactions too. Meanwhile, Jean Charest seems established as the second most popular candidate, and the one with the greatest potential to win votes from the Liberal Party in a general election. Time will tell whether this becomes a more central question for those choosing the next Conservative leader
According to David Coletto: “Although the federal political landscape appears to be quite static, we are seeing some noteworthy shifts in views about some of the candidates running to become the next leader of the Conservative Party. For the first time since we started tracking impressions of the candidates, Mr. Poilievre is showing that he is not immune to criticism and his image can be penetrated. Since earlier this month, his negatives with the general public are up 4-points while negative impressions among Conservative Party supporters are up 7. He is still by far the most liked candidate in the race, and more Conservative supporters think his values best reflect their own, but more than a week of fairly relentless critical commentary about his positions and outlook has taken its toll.
For Mr. Charest and the other candidates, this presents an opportunity and perhaps some hope that Mr. Poilievre is not unbeatable nor impenetrable to criticism. But Mr. Charest’s liabilities remain apparent. His image has not improved over the same time frame and among Conservative supporters, he remains the least popular (in terms of those with a negative impression of him).
For the Conservative Party more generally, a drop in its accessible voter pool and vote share should be concerning during the leadership race. This should be a time when the tent expands and more people pay attention to the party – not a time when it’s audience narrows.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 20 to 24, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
The year got off to a terrifying start with the invasion of Ukraine, a democracy, by Russia, an authoritarian regime, just a year after the US Capitol was stormed by those who wanted to prevent the peaceful transition of power from Donald Trump to Joe Biden. In Hungary, just a few weeks ago, autocrat Viktor Orbán was comfortably re-elected, despite every opposing party uniting forces as a coalition to try and defeat him.
These events, and many more, raise the question; is democracy on the decline globally? Objectively, the answer is clearly yes. But does Canadian public perception match this reality and do people think it matters to their lives?
In a recent national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (conducted from May 3 to 6, 2022) we explored public perceptions about democracy globally and what role Canada can play in defending and promoting it around the world.
GLOBAL DECLINE IN DEMOCRACY
Almost half of Canadians (46%) believe that democracy around the world is retreating and declining, while 19% think it is advancing. Many, however, are not sure (34%). Those who are not sure share a broader isolationist world view that leads them to be disengaged with world affairs.
Younger Canadians (those under 45 years) are the most optimistic that democracy is advancing. Men are also slightly more optimistic than women. Those with more formal education are less likely to be unsure of what is happening globally to democracy but do recognize the global decline.
The decline in democracy is understood to matter to those who see the decline. One in four (24%) Canadians who recognizes that democracy is retreating and declining think this decline will have a big impact on their life. Few people (5% not at all) don’t think the democratic decline will impact them at all. However, given that most people think the impact will be limited, it’s likely that the direct link between democracy globally and their lives here in Canada are only tenuously understood.
Perceptions of the state of democracy around the world are strongly tied to overall perceptions of the world. When we ask whether the world is heading in the right direction or off on the wrong track, Canadians are twice as likely to say it is on the wrong track if they feel that democracy is retreating and declining versus those who feel democracy is advancing and growing. Canadians who think the world is off on the wrong track are much less likely to think democracy is advancing.
CANADA’S ROLE IN PROMOTING DEMOCRACY
While Canadians are pessimistic about the spread of democracy around the world, they view the promotion of democracy and human rights as the top source of pride in Canada’s foreign policy. Our armed forces and defence capabilities are the greatest source of pride for the fewest Canadians (7%).
When given the choice of working with allies to promote and defend democracy or focusing on strengthening their own country, Canadians choose by a 2 to 1 margin an internationalist approach. One in four (26%) would not get involved in international efforts to prevent the spread of authoritarianism and 22% don’t have a clear view either way.
Younger Canadians are less likely than their older counterparts to want to promote and defend democracy, but this is mostly because they are much less likely to have a clear view of the trade-off (35%). Those 60 years of age and older are the most committed to promoting and defending democracy (68%).
Ideological self-identification is strongly associated with the preferred approach to promoting democracy around the world, with those on the left much more supportive. Reflecting this, those who are open to voting Liberal and NDP are the most likely to adopt a pro-democracy posture. Those open to voting for the People’s Party of Canada and the Maverick party are the least likely to support promoting and defending democracy around the world.
UPSHOT
Many Canadians understand that democracy around the world is in decline but this is still a minority viewpoint. More work needs to be done to not only define the problem, make it salient, but also make it relevant for people. It is easy to look at this finding and be discouraged. The silver lining in these results is the strong commitment and desire among Canadians to be active promoters of democracy around the world.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from May 3 to 6, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
With less than two weeks to go before the Ontario election ends, we just completed a survey of 1,500 eligible voters conducted from May 18 to 21, 2022.
Here’s a quick summary of the results:
PCs lead by 8 over the OLP (PC 36, OLP 28, NDP 24)
The Leaders’ Debate lifts the image of all four leaders.
Doug Ford wins the debate because he didn’t lose it.
More now think the PCs will win the election.
NDP and OLP continue to almost evenly split support among “change voters”
DETAILED RESULTS
PC LEAD HOLDS: PCs AHEAD BY 8 AS OLP AND NDP VOTE SHARE HOLD STEADY
If the election was held today, the PCs would win the popular vote easily over the Ontario Liberals. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 36% of the vote (up 1) with the Ontario Liberals at 28% (unchanged) and the Ontario NDP at 24% (unchanged). The Ontario Greens are at 5% (unchanged) while other parties get 8% of the vote (up 1).
Regionally, we find the PCs ahead or statistically tied in all regions of the province. They lead by 3 over the OLP in Metro Toronto, lead by 4 in the rest of the GTHA, ahead by 19 in Eastern Ontario and ahead by 14 points in southwestern Ontario.
The PCs have a 22-point lead among those aged 60 and over, and a 12-point lead among those aged 45 to 59. The PCs and Liberals are tied among those aged 30 to 44 while the Liberals and NDP are tied among those aged 18 to 29. Only 1 in 5 younger voters say they will vote PC.
Among those most likely to vote, the gap between the PCs and Ontario Liberals grows to 12-points with the PCs at 39%, the Liberals at 27%, and the NDP at 22%. This is almost the exact same results as last week.
WHY HAS THERE BEEN LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE CAMPAIGN SO FAR?
#1 – Attention to the campaign has increased, but not by much.
When asked how closely they are following the election campaign, 54% are following it very or somewhat closely (up by 5 points from last week) while 46% are following it only a little, not at all, or didn’t even know there was an election.
But the PCs are leading among those following the campaign very closely (44% to 28% for the OLP) and among those who say they are following it somewhat closely (38% to 27%).
#2 – The desire for change is down by 4 points.
Over the past week, those definitely wanting to see a change in government have dropped by 4-points to 48% while those wanting to see the PCs definitely re-elected have increased by 2-points. Typically, we see the desire for change increase as a campaign goes on. This is unusual and unique to this campaign.
The desire for change in Ontario is far lower than the week before the 2018 provincial election and lower than in the final weekend of the 2021 federal election.
The NDP and OLP continue to split support among “change voters”. The Liberals have gained 3-points in the past week but the two parties get almost an equal share of this group which almost entirely explains why neither has made any gains in vote intention province-wide. Unless this changes in the final week and half of the campaign, the PCs should be very well positioned to win.
#3 – DEBATE REACTION: None of the leaders won or lost the debate, meaning Doug Ford won the debate.
In this survey, respondents were asked whether they watched or heard about the leaders’ debate held on Monday May 16 and what their reaction was among those who had watched or heard about it.
When asked which leader did the most to win their vote, 35% picked Doug Ford followed by Del Duca at 19%, Horwath at 20%, and Schreiner at 8%.
When asked which leader did the most to lose their vote, Doug Ford was most likely to be selected again with 32% followed by Horwath and Del Duca at 20% and Schreiner at 6%.
When asked whether their performance at the leaders’ debate left them with a positive or negative impression, all four leaders were net positive meaning more said they had a favourable impression of them at the debate than a negative one.
Overall, Mike Schreiner had the highest net positive (+29), followed by Horwath (+26), Ford (+20), and Del Duca (+13). Based on these results, none of the leaders really lost the debate and everyone made at least a net favourable impression.
#4 – Doug Ford’s personal image has improved again, as have
Since last week, Doug Ford’s positives are up 6-points while his negatives are down 5. An equal proportion of eligible voters have a positive and negative impression of the PC Leader.
Ms. Horwath’s positives are up 4-points, Mr. Del Duca’s are up 5-points, while Mike Schreiner has seen a 7-point increase in those who have a positive view of him. Mr. Del Duca has the worst net impression with a score of -10. Mr. Schreiner is at -4 while Ms. Horwath and Mr. Ford are tied at 0.
Since the start of the campaign, about equal numbers of people say their impression of Doug Ford has improved or worsened. Ms. Horwath has seen the most positive improvement (+8) followed by Mr. Schreiner (+7). While more people in total say their impressions of Mr. Del Duca have changed – not surprising because of how few people knew of him – about equal numbers say their impressions have improved or worsened. In other words, Mr. Del Duca’s performance on the campaign has earned him as many supporters as he has detractors.
Doug Ford remains well ahead on which leader would make the best premier. 35% pick Mr. Ford (up 1) followed by Ms. Horwath at 19% and Mr. Del Duca at 16%. 25% were unsure down 4 from last week.
#5 – More now think the PCs will win the election with the NDP well back in third.
When asked which party they think will win the election, 45% think the PCs will win (up 3 from last week) while 22% think the Liberals will. Only 10% think the NDP will win.
#6 – The PCs continue to own and are competitive on the top issues of the campaign.
When asked what three issues are most likely to impact their vote, “reducing the cost of living” remains at the top of the list with 64% putting it in their top 3 (up 2). “Housing affordability and accessibility”, “improving the healthcare system”, “keeping taxes from going up”, and “growing the economy and creating good jobs” round out the top 5. The only noticeable change from last week is a 3-point increase in those saying “long-term care and seniors care” was a top issue from 19% to 22%. There has also been a 3-point increase in those selecting “responding to the COVID-19 pandemic).
When those who ranked an issue in their top 3 were asked which party was best able to deal with it, the PCs lead in reducing the cost of living, keeping taxes from going up, and growing the economy. There are slightly behind the NDP on housing affordability and in a three-way tie with the OLP and NDP on improving the healthcare system.
A FEW OTHER INTERESTING RESULTS:
#1 – PROBLEM DEFINITION: More think the cost of housing, health professional shortages, wait times for surgeries, and poverty are big problems in the province. Far fewer think traffic congestion, cancel culture, or class sizes are big problems.
#2 – PROBLEM DEFINITION & THE VOTE: The PCs lead among those who think the cost of housing is a big problem, as well as those who say health professional shortages, wait times, and those unable to find a family doctor are big problems in the province.
Among those who say climate change is a big problem, the NDP is ahead by 7 over the OLP with the PCs in third. Among those who say the cost of university and college tuition is a big problem, the NDP, OLP, and PCs are basically tied.
The New Blue Party and other parties do best among those who say “too much government regulation”, “political division and polarization”, and “cancel culture” are big problems in the province.
#3 – HIGHWAY 413: 47% of Ontarians either support or can accept building Highway 413 while 30% are opposed.
Support or acceptance of the highway is fairly consistent across the province with 51% supporting/accepting in the rest of the GTHA.
The PCs have an almost 30-point lead among those who support building Highway 413, and a 21-point lead among those who can accept it while the NDP and Liberals are almost evenly split and tied among those who oppose it.
#4 – BILL 124 AND PUBLIC SECTOR PAY FREEZES: Ontarians are almost evenly divided on whether it is a good idea or bad idea for the provincial government to freeze most public sector workers’ pay increases to 1% per year. 34% think it is a good idea while 38% think it is a bad idea. PC supporters are more likely to favour it while NDP supporters are more likely to oppose it. OLP and Green supporters are more split.
When asked to pick between two statements regarding Bill 124, framing the decision to freeze public sector wage increases at 1% as unfair and bad public policy gets far more traction than the fiscal constraint argument. Even 46% of PC supporters are inclined to think the wage freeze is bad public policy when it’s framed around recruitment and retention.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “Very little has changed over the past week. The PCs continue to have a healthy lead overall, and an even larger lead among more motivated voters. The debates have done little to change people’s impressions – if anything, voters were generally impressed with all four leaders and therefore Doug Ford came out the real winner.
The desire for change is down, Ford’s personal image has improved, and the PCs still dominate three of the five top issues in the campaign, including the most important issue – the cost of living.
The NDP and Liberals continue to evenly split support among “change voters” and neither has any momentum at the moment. If this doesn’t change in the next week, Doug Ford should easily get re-elected as the Liberals and NDP fight it out for second place.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from May 18 to 21, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
