In the latest round of survey work by Clean Energy Canada and Abacus Data, we surveyed 1500 residents of Ontario as the province enters a provincial election campaign.
Key findings include:
55% think climate change is a serious problem and more action needs to be taken to fight it, but only 25% think Premier Doug Ford would agree with that assessment.
A majority (63%) of Ontarians now believe that, when you look at the lifetime costs of a car (including maintenance, repairs, insurance and energy to power it), electric vehicles are cheaper than gas vehicles.
When informed that EV sales in Ontario lag the pace seen in other parts of the country, a majority are unhappy and would either like to see Ontario keep pace (28%) or lead (28%).
When asked what might account for lagging EV sales in Ontario, the top factors according to survey respondents are the lack of a provincial rebate and an inadequate number of charging stations.
Thinking about the next car they would purchase, more Ontarians now say they lean towards choosing electric (53%) than gas or diesel (47%). The preference for EVs is particularly profound among younger people.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson, Chairman of Abacus Data: “For many years, the fate and future of the automotive sector was a conversation that influenced politics in the province of Ontario, and now we are seeing a new phase in that conversation. Many voters want more action to fight climate change and many like the appeal of e-vehicles as a choice they can make to help protect the planet. As people see the array of e-vehicle choices coming online and hear the experiences of others, the public demand for e-vehicles is on the rise, and so too is the expectation for government policies that will help make it easier to switch from combustion engines to electric or hybrid vehicles.
According toJoanna Kyriazis, clean transportation program manager at Clean Energy Canada: “Ontarians aren’t happy about their province’s poor EV performance—and rightly so. There was a higher proportion of EVs sold in the Yukon last year than in Canada’s most populous province. A lack of provincial EV policies has meant that the majority of new EVs made for the Canadian market are sent to Quebec and B.C., making it even harder for Ontarians to get behind the wheel. And with gas prices soaring, the longer the wait, the more wallets will be squeezed at the gas pump. EVs offer a popular and effective solution to both climate change and rising living costs. It’s time for the provincial government to do more to help Ontarians make the switch.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Ontario adults from May 5 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
The survey was paid for by Clean Energy Canada.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
As the Ontario provincial election started, we conducted a survey of 1,500 eligible voters in the province from May 5 to 9, 2022.
The results indicate that the Ontario PC Party is in a solid position to be re-elected in early June barring any major shifts in public opinion.
In this report, we explore the reasons for this conclusion by looking at several key indicators we will track throughout the election.
PCs LEAD BY 9 OVER THE LIBERALS. NDP AT 22%
If the election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 38% of the vote with the Ontario Liberals at 29% and the Ontario NDP at 22%. The Ontario Greens are at 5% while other parties get 7% of the vote.
Since April, the PCs are up 2, the Liberals down 3, and the NDP and Greens are holding fairly steady.
Regionally, we find the PCs trailing the Liberals in Metro Toronto, but ahead by a wide margin in the GTHA (postal code starts with L), eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario.
The PCs also lead among eligible voters over 30 with a 14-point lead among those 60+, a 13-point lead among those aged 45 to 59, and a 13-point lead among those aged 30 to 44. Among the youngest cohort, the Liberals and NDP are tied at 34% with the PCs well back at 20%.
In our survey, 76% of respondents reported owning a car and among car owners, the PCs lead by 14-points over the Liberals. Among those who don’t own a car, the PCs trail behind in third.
The PCs also have a big lead among those who own their home. In the GTHA (including Metro Toronto), the PCs lead by 6 among those who own their home but trail the Liberals by 13 among renters. Outside of the GTHA, the PCs lead by 35-points over the Liberals.
Among those most likely to vote, the gap between the PCs and Ontario Liberals is also 9% with the PCs getting 38%, the Liberals getting 29% and 20% for the NDP.
WHAT EXPLAINS THE PC’S DOMINANT POSITION?
#1 – The desire for change isn’t high or intensive enough to seriously challenge the PCs.
Over the past few weeks, the desire for change hasn’t varied. Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government (down 1 since April) while 19% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome.
The desire for change in Ontario is far lower than the week before the 2018 provincial election and a little less than the final weekend of the 2021 federal election.
Perhaps most important, “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split almost evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention.
One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:
(1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or
(2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.
Case in point, if half of “change voters” currently favouring the NDP switch to the Liberals, then they would be even with the PCs in vote intention. The same would happen if half of Liberal “change voters” switch to the NDP.
#2 – The PCs lead or are competitive on the top 5 most important issues to voters.
Reducing the cost of living remains a top issue for more than half of Ontarians (59%). Housing affordability, healthcare, taxes, and growing the economy round out the top 5.
The cost of living as a top issue is up 7-points since April while housing affordability and healthcare rose by 3-points.
When those who care about each issue are asked which party is best able to handle the issue, the PCs are ahead or competitive for all of the top 5 issues.
The PCs lead by 18 on reducing the cost of living, are in a three-way tie with the NDP and Liberals on housing affordability and healthcare, and have a massive advantage in keeping taxes from going up and growing the economy.
Unless the other parties can close this issue advantage or another issue rises to prominence over the next three weeks, the PC advantage will persist.
#3 – Doug Ford’s personal image is stronger than the other party leaders and is in a better place than it has been for much of his time as Premier.
Beyond the desire for change and issue ownership, Doug Ford’s personal image remains relatively strong.
More people have a positive view of the PC leader than any of his opponents and Mr. Ford’s negatives are lower than they have been for much of 2021 and certainly before 2020.
The anger against Doug Ford is no longer as widespread as it was in the past. About 1 in 4 have a “very negative” view of the Premier and among this group, 39% are voting Liberal while 38% will vote NDP. The split among opposition parties is a big factor explaining Ford’s lead.
In comparison to Mr. Ford, NDP leader Andrea Horwath has about equal numbers viewing her positively and negatively while Mr. Del Duca remains the least well-known leader and has more who view him negatively than do positively.
Moreover, when we ask respondents which leader is most likely to have a series of leadership traits or characteristics, Doug Ford leads on everyone. More people see him as tough, competent, having the best vision, and most willing to admit when they make a mistake. He’s also seen as the most honest.
Ms. Horwath comes second in all of these but doesn’t beat Mr. Ford in any of the attributes.
Beyond their images, when asked which leader would make the best Premier, Doug Ford easily wins, leading Ms. Horwath by 16-points and Mr. Del Duca by 19.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “As the first week of the campaign ends, Doug Ford and the PCs are in the driver’s seat. The PCs have a wide lead in vote intention, have the most popular leader, and own or are competitive on the top issues on voters’ minds.
If nothing changes in the opinion environment between now and early June, the PCs should win another majority.
But the data also shows a path forward for either the NDP or the Liberals. Neither has a clear advantage among those people who deeply want to see the PCs and Doug Ford replaced. Both leaders, for different reasons, remain blank slates for millions of Ontarians who either don’t know them (Del Duca) or don’t have strong views (Horwath). Strong performances in the debates or a mistake by the PCs could create an opportunity to consolidate the anti-PC forces.
If consolidation is going to happen, it’s more likely to happen around the Liberals. Why? Well, more Ontarians say they identify with the Liberal Party (they see themselves as Liberals) than with the NDP – 27% Liberal vs. 16% NDP – and when asked who they think will win the election – far more think the Liberals will win than do the NDP.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from May 5 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
As Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston is set to deliver his first annual State of the Province Address tomorrow, in partnership with Summa Strategies, we surveyed 500 Nova Scotia residents from April 14 to 21 exploring their overall mood, their views on the government’s performance today, the top issues in the province, and what their specific priorities are when it comes to healthcare in the province.
Here’s what we found:
MOOD OF THE PROVINCE: MORE THINK THE PROVINCE IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION THAN OFF ON THE WRONG TRACK
Right now, 43% of Nova Scotians believe the province is headed in the right direction compared with 35% who think it is off on the wrong track. Another 22% are unsure.
These views are influenced by perceptions about the economy where about half describe the state of the provincial economy as good and about half think it is performing poorly. Those living in or around Halifax are slightly more likely to think the economy is doing well than those living in other regions of the province (Halifax 50% very good/good vs. other regions 43%).
For about half of the province, the rising cost of living is a concern with 30% saying they are very worried about their ability to deal with the rising cost of living and another 17% saying they are pretty worried.
TOP ISSUES: HEALTHCARE, INFLATION, AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY TOP THE LIST
When asked to rate the top three issues facing the province, healthcare, inflation, and housing affordability clearly stand out as most important to a majority of Nova Scotians. 70% rated healthcare as a top issue, followed closely by inflation at 68% and housing affordability rounding out the top 3 at 54%.
Other top issues included the economy (24%), infrastructure like roads (19%), the environment and climate change (17%), and drug addiction and mental health (11%).
PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
Nova Scotians are much more likely to approve of the job performance of the provincial government than disapprove. 46% approve while 25% disapprove. The remaining 30% neither approve nor disapprove. It is worth noting that while more approve than disapprove, only 7% strongly approve of the government’s performance – suggesting residents are generally positive about the approach and performance but not enthusiastic about it. This muted approval is confirmed when we explore specific policy areas.
Among NS PC voters in 2021, 72% approve of the government’s performance to date while 9% disapprove. A plurality of opposition party voters also approve of the government’s performance including 53% of NS Liberal voters and 37% of NDP voters.
When asked to rate the provincial government’s performance in specific areas, a clear majority describe the government’s performance as acceptable or better when it comes to education, climate change and the environment, the provincial budget, and growing the economy. However, evaluations are less positive when it comes to keeping taxes low, improving the healthcare system, and keeping the cost of living manageable. On two of the top issues in the province, the provincial government’s negative ratings are higher.
Despite some friction on a few key issues, most Nova Scotians feel that the provincial government, first elected in August 2021, has performed about as well as they expected or better (Better 19%, As expected 47%). In contrast, 23% feel it has performed worse than they expected.
PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES? HEALTHCARE, HOUSING, ELECTRICITY, AND COVID-19
Respondents were shown a list of possible things the provincial government could focus on and asked to rate how much of a priority each should be.
81% felt that improving the healthcare system should be a top priority, far higher than any other issue. Another 68% rated housing affordability as a top issue followed by dealing with COVID-19 (53%) and the price of electricity (52%).
Economic growth (47%), improving the job situation in the province (41%), and dealing with drug addiction and mental health issues (41%) were rated as a top priority by more than 40% of respondents.
HOW IS THE GOVERNMENT DOING IMPROVING HEALTHCARE IN NOVA SCOTIA?
When asked how the provincial government is doing fixing the healthcare system, as it promised to do in the last provincial election, 18% feel the government is making good progress in improving the system while 33% feel it is making some progress, but less than they expected at this point. 35% feel the government has done very little to improve healthcare.
Among those who voted PC in the last election, 30% think the government is making good progress in improving the healthcare system 41% think it’s made some progress, but less than expected, while 19% feel it has done very little so far.
Among the 81% who felt healthcare should be a top priority for the provincial government, 17% feel it has made good progress, 32% think it has made some progress, but less than expected while 38% think it has done very little to address the issue.
There is some skepticism about the government’s ability to fix the problem. While 53% think that fixing the healthcare system could definitely or could probably happen, 46% are less convinced.
ACCESS TO FAMILY DOCTORS IS THE TOP HEALTHCARE PRIORITY FOR NOVA SCOTIANS
When asked to rate the importance of specific improvement areas in healthcare, 52% said increasing the number of family doctors where they are most needed should be the top priority, followed by 16% who felt more specialists to tackle long wait times was the top priority. 14% wanted to see collaborative care clinics be the priority while 11% wanted to see more nurses being allowed to do more for patients.
VIEWS ON PREMIER HOUSTON AND POSSIBLE OPPOSITION LEADERS
Overall, Premier Houston’s personal image is quite positive. 43% have a positive impression of him while only 18% have a negative view. 28% have a neutral impression while 10% are unsure. Among those who voted PC in the last provincial election, 75% have a positive view while 4% have a negative one. 50% of Liberal voters and 29% of NDP voters have a positive view of the premier.
In contrast, when we ask about candidates running to be leaders of the NS Liberal Party and NDP, 19% have a positive view of MLA Zach Churchill, compared with 14% who have a negative view. 34% have a neutral view while 33% don’t know him well enough to have an opinion. Angela Simmonds, another candidate for the NS Liberal leadership is viewed positively by 15% while 12% have a negative view. 43% don’t know enough about her.
NDP leadership candidate and MLA Claudia Chender has 17% who view her positively with 9% who view her negatively. 43% also don’t know enough about her to have an opinion.
When we asked whether a series of descriptions apply or not to Premier Tim Houston, in every example, more think the term applies than not. 61% think he is intelligent, 52% think he’s likable, and 45% would describe him as a strong and decisive leader. Twenty percent or less don’t think those terms apply to him.
More also think that he cares about all regions of the province, is honest and trustworthy, can manage the government effectively, and cares about the needs of people like them than don’t.
VOTE INTENTION: PCs LEAD BY 8 OVER THE LIBERALS
When asked how they would vote if an election were held today, the PCs would very likely win another majority government. 39% would vote PC followed by the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 23%. Apart from a dip in Liberal support, these results line up close to the results of the 2021 provincial election.
Among the 81% who said healthcare should be a top priority for the provincial government, 42% would vote PC, 31% Liberal, and 21% NDP.
In Halifax, it’s a close three-way race with the PCs at 32%, the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 29%. Outside HRM, the PCs have a big 13-point lead, with 44% compared with 31% for the Liberals and 18% for the NDP.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “It has been 244 days since Tim Houston and the PCs were sworn in as the new government in Nova Scotia. So far, most Nova Scotians have been satisfied with the government’s performance and far more have positive views of the premier than negative ones.
Nova Scotians want to see action on three issues in particular – healthcare, the cost of living, and housing – and most think the government will be able to fix the healthcare system as it promised. So far, most of those who voted PC and many who didn’t are giving the government the benefit of the doubt.
While this survey was conducted prior to the release of the government’s healthcare plan, it’s clear that perceptions about the healthcare system and the government’s performance in improving it will be a key driver to how people feel about the government overall. Its election promise to fix healthcare was instrumental in its election. And its performance delivering will likely be critical to how Nova Scotians evaluate its performance.”
According to Shay Purdy, from Summa Strategies: “The Houston government will be pleased to see that the issues they prioritized through the opening legislative session and in their first budget remain very top-of-mind for Nova Scotians. While the prominence of these top issues of health care, cost of living, and housing affordability creates a clear picture for the government of where they should continue to be focused, there will absolutely be a challenge in meeting expectations in these areas – all of which, it could be argued, are currently in some degree of crisis.
The Premier’s personal numbers and the government’s approval ratings are also looking quite strong, even among those who voted for a different party in the last election. Incoming leaders of the Nova Scotia Liberals and the New Democrats have their work cut out for them following their leadership decisions, which take place in late June and early July.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with n=500 Nova Scotia residents aged 18 and over from April 14 to 21, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.4%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc and Summa Strategies Canada Inc.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
ABOUT SUMMA STRATEGIES
Summa Strategies Canada provides a full suite of public affairs services grounded in a firm understanding of the political environment, government process and legislative procedure. Headquartered in Ottawa, we help our clients interpret and navigate their landscape of opportunities and challenges with the federal government and provincial governments across the country
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
This is a summary of a major public opinion study conducted by Abacus Data, using an online methodology, for the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association. The sample size for the survey was 3,800 adult Canadians and the fieldwork was conducted from January 31 to February 14, 2022. The margin of error for a comparable probability sample is 1.6%, 19 times out of 20.
SATISFACTION WITH HEALTH CARE IN CANADA
While health care is often discussed as one of the top priorities for most Canadians, this can sometimes obscure the fact that three out of four people say they are generally satisfied with the way the health care system works for them.
Satisfaction levels don’t vary by income level. BC, Saskatchewan, and Ontario residents show higher levels of satisfaction than Alberta, Manitoba, Quebec, and Atlantic Canadians. Dissatisfaction is highest among women under 45.
While many areas of public policy show marked differences by partisan affiliation or voting preferences, this is not so clear-cut when it comes to health care. More than 70% of those who voted for the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, and Green parties all express general satisfaction with how the health care system serves their needs.
DETAILED SATISFACTION PROBING
Not all aspects of the health care system generate the same level of satisfaction. At the top of the list of things that people are more likely to be satisfied with is their ability to afford and obtain the medications they need: 73% are satisfied, 23% dissatisfied, and 4% don’t use this form of health service enough to have formed an opinion. Also highly rated is the ability to access health information using phone or video services (virtual health care) with 59% satisfied, 21% dissatisfied, and 20% unable to have formed an opinion yet.
Dissatisfaction is about one in three when it comes to being able to get timely appointments and consultations with a doctor, higher still when it comes to appointments with specialists. About a third are dissatisfied with the ability to afford and obtain eye care, physiotherapy, and dental care.
Among those who have accessed or looked to access mental health services satisfaction (36%) is almost equaled by dissatisfaction (30%).
When it comes to satisfaction with affordability and access to medications there are few significant differences. Today, 78% of those who are able to access a group health benefits plan are satisfied with the affordability of their medicines.
IMPACT OF COVID
A majority of those surveyed felt that the COVID-19 pandemic made things worse in some aspects of the health system – specifically in terms of allowing for timely appointments with doctors and specialists. However, it is notable that almost as many (47%) said that being able to get timely and affordable mental health support was made more difficult by the pandemic.
The only area where a significant number (albeit the minority) said that the pandemic had a positive impact was on virtual health – the idea of being able to consult health providers by phone or video. For those who used virtual health services, satisfaction levels are high.
SATISFACTION WITH EXTENDED HEALTH BENEFIT PLANS
Canadians are generally satisfied with the health benefit plans available to them and see them as helpful in dealing with cost-of-living challenges. Among those who have access to an employer or another similar group plan, 86%-88% say they are very or mostly satisfied with these plans. Those who have privately purchased insurance are 80% satisfied, and those who have access to extended benefits through a provincial plan are 74% satisfied.
Those who have access to an extended benefits plan were asked to estimate the savings to their household when it came to drug costs, dental care, eye care, and physiotherapy. The estimated savings were extensive with an average of $922 in prescription drugs, $703 for dental care, $421 for eye care, and $384 for physiotherapy. Those with access to an employer benefits plan reported significantly above average savings.
The large majority (85%) of those who have access to an extended benefits plan find it helpful with access and affordability for a variety of health services that they need to access, from prescriptions to mental health. Satisfaction levels are significantly stronger among those who have access to an employer benefit plan compared to those who access a provincial benefits plan.
GROUP INSURANCE AND PUBLIC HEALTH
Canadians are far more likely to see group benefit plans as something which increases the availability and affordability of health services in Canada (78%) rather than something that erodes the idea of universal coverage (28%).
As a consequence of this view that group plans add rather than subtract from public health goals, across the country, and across the political spectrum, there is a virtually unanimous (92%) desire for public policies that strengthen and encourage the use of employer group plans.
PHARMACARE & THE PEI MODEL
For several years, our surveys have shown that Canadians would like to see public policies that ensure prescription drugs are affordable for those who do not currently have access to plans that help them with drug costs.
In this survey, we described the approach taken to introduce a version of Pharmacare in the province of PEI and found that by a wide margin Canadians would endorse a similar Pharmacare approach being taken in their own province – providing support for those who have no coverage today (72%) rather than causing everyone who has a plan to switch to a government plan which might cover the most common, but fewer drugs. (28%).
Across the country, an average of 74% would like their province to embrace a similar transfer of funds to provide this type of coverage, while only 8% would prefer not to see this happen.
DENTAL CARE
There is broad support for the idea of a federal initiative to ensure dental care coverage for those who do not have access to coverage under a current plan, and whose income falls below a $60,000 threshold. Only 6% oppose this idea and 44% express strong support.
Given a choice between the federal government providing a single program that provides coverage for everyone – including those who already have dental benefits – or an initiative focused on those with lower incomes and no coverage, the substantial majority (70%) prefer a targeted approach.
MENTAL HEALTH
Our recent surveys have indicated a growing demand for mental health services and this survey contributes more evidence that people are finding it a challenge to get the services they need. Just under half say they have accessed mental health services, regularly (12%) or from time to time (30%). More people say it is difficult than say it is easy to get mental health services.
Many people see challenges in terms of the number of professionals available to provide mental health services, the availability of timely appointments, the cost of counselling and medications. A large majority also see the fear of stigmatization as a major or significant problem.
While just over half (54%) say they would feel comfortable discussing their mental health with their employer, almost as many say they would be hesitant (46%). Women indicate 11-point higher levels of hesitancy.
CONCLUSIONS
Most Canadians are satisfied with how Canada’s health care system meets their needs but there are some areas where satisfaction is lower and others where it is higher. People are relatively satisfied with their ability to access affordable medications, but timely access to specialists, the cost of dental care and access to mental health services are more challenging.
Covid has made accessing appointments more challenging, but at the same time there was growth in the use of virtual medicine, and a desire to see more of this functionality in the future.
Canadians consider extended health benefits plans that are in place today highly beneficial in terms of saving them money. This is especially true for those who have access to group insurance plans where the average person indicates that they save significant amounts of money each year when it comes to drugs, eyecare, dental care, and physiotherapy.
Support remains broad for the idea of the government ensuring drug coverage for those who do not have access to such plans today, and there is a clear preference for a targeted plan rather than a single-payer, one program for all approach, which might cause some people to see their current benefits reduced.
There is a growing need for mental health services and a feeling that these are harder to access than is ideal. Looking through the breadth of results in this survey, mental health is probably the topic that reveals the greatest hope for improvement in terms of health system support today.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,800 adult Canadians from January 31 to February 14, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Life and Health Insurance Association.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
With news that the Canadian men’s soccer team qualified for the 2022 World Cup taking place later this year in Qatar, we wanted to understand how Canadians feel about it and whether they will be cheering on Team Canada.
Now, I admit, I’m not a huge fan of soccer. As an Italian-Canadian, I often get engaged and interested in the World Cup through the excitement of family and friends – many of whom were disappointed that Italy didn’t qualify for the World Cup this year
THE CONTEXT: 2 IN 5 CANADIANS ARE SOCCER FANS
Overall, 2 in 5 Canadians say they are either big or casusal fans of soccer. This is about average for other sports we tested as well. NHL hockey remains the most popular sport (64% are fans) followed by the other three major North American professional sports leagues. About as many people are fans of soccer as they are of CFL football, NBA basketball, and tennis.
Soccer fans tend to be male, younger, and concentrated in Ontario, Alberta, and British Columbia. They are more likely to have a university education and live in urban or suburban communities across the country.
THE CONTEXT: ABOUT A THIRD OF CANADIANS USUALLY FOLLOW THE WORLD CUP CLOSELY OR SOMEWHAT.
When asked how closely they usually follow the World Cup, 12% said they follow it closely while another 23% follow it somewhat. 44% don’t follow it at all.
SIX IN TEN ARE AWARE THAT TEAM CANADA QUALIFIED FOR THE 2022 WORLD CUP
Just over six in ten Canadians said they were aware that the Canadian men’s soccer team qualified for the 2022 World Cup. Those who are fans of the sport, not surprisingly, were far more likely to be aware, although even half of non-fans knew the team qualified.
1 IN 3 CANADIANS SAY THEY WILL FOLLOW THE WORLD CUP MORE CLOSELY THIS YEAR BECAUSE TEAM CANADA QUALIFIED.
Team Canada’s entry into the tournament has increased interest in the World Cup for about 1 in 3 Canadians. Another 15% say they are less interested this year than in the past. Of note, 1 in 5 non-fans of soccer say they will follow the tournament more closely because Team Canada has qualified.
MORE THAN 60% OF CANADIANS WILL BE CHEERING FOR TEAM CANADA AT THE WORLD CUP
When asked who they will be cheering for at this year’s World Cup, 52% said they would only be cheering for Team Canada, 9% said they would be cheering for Team Canada and another team, while 5% said they would be cheering for a team other than Team Canada.
Among big fans of soccer, 67% will be cheering for Team Canada while another 23% have dual loyalties. 10% will be cheering for another team besides Team Canada.
Interestingly, Quebecers were the least likely to say they would be cheering for Team Canada. Moreover, younger Canadians were more likely to cheer for another team than older Canadians.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “For the first time in more than 30 years, Canadians will be able to cheer on their home team at a men’s World Cup. Millions plan to follow the tournament more closely than they typically do, offering the sport a chance to engage an even larger audience and promote interest in the sport. Right now, 4 in 10 Canadians consider themselves fans of soccer. If Team Canada continues to surprise and delight fans, expect that to grow after the World Cup wraps this fall in Qatar.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians from April 4th to 9th, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
As we head towards the 2022 Ontario provincial election, our team at Abacus Data will be conducting regular surveys to gauge public opinion and reaction to the campaign. Clients interested in purchasing questions on our Ontario survey should reach out to Yvonne Langen.
In our first survey of the Ontario election season, we interviewed 1,500 eligible voters in the province from April 14 to 19, 2022.
Here’s what we found:
THE VOTER MINDSET IN ONTARIO
About an equal number of Ontarians feel the province is headed in the right direction than feel it is off on the wrong track. At the same time, 25% describe the current Ontario economy as excellent or good, 37% feel it is acceptable, and 38% describe it as terrible or poor.
As inflation hits a 31-year high in Canada, 62% of Ontarians say their household income is falling behind their cost of living. 26% say it is about even while 11% report their income is rising faster than the cost of living.
COST OF LIVING, HOUSING, HEALTHCARE & TAXES ARE THE TOP ISSUES DRIVING VOTES
When asked to select the three issues that are most likely to impact their votes, half of Ontarians rate reducing the cost of living as their top issue, followed by housing affordability and accessibility, improving the healthcare system, and keeping taxes from going up or reducing them.
Another 1 in 4 rated growing the economy and creating good jobs as a top issue while 22% selected responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, 20% rated fighting climate change and protecting the environment as a top issue.
Looking at generational differences on top issues, both millennials and older generations are just as likely to select reducing the cost of living while millennials were 10-points more likely to pick housing affordability than older generations.
Older generations were 15-points more likely to pick improving the healthcare system, 4-points more likely to pick tax improvements, and 5-points more likely to pick growing the economy. Not surprisingly, older Ontarians were much more likely to pick long-term care and seniors care as a top issue (25% vs. 11%) when compared with millennials.
When we compare those who would currently vote PC to others in the province, PC voters were more likely to select reducing the cost of living (55% vs. 46%), keeping taxes from going up (39% vs. 23%) and growing the economy and creating good jobs (35% vs. 20%) as their top issues.
PC supporters were 12-points less likely to pick climate change and the environment as a top issue than other respondents (13% vs. 25%).
61% RATE DOUG FORD’S PERFORMANCE AS PREMIER AS EXCELLENT, GOOD, OR ACCEPTABLE
When asked to rate Doug Ford’s performance as premier, 36% give Ford a positive score while 25% describe his performance as acceptable. 35% rate his performance as either poor or terrible.
Not surprisingly, there is a strong relationship between one’s performance evaluation of the premier and vote intention.
More than half of those who think the premier has done an excellent or good job say they would vote PC. Among those who think he has done an acceptable job, 38% would vote PC, 34% OLP, and 18% NDP.
Less than 10% of those who think he has done a poor or terrible job say they would vote PC.
When asked to rate the premier’s performance in specific areas, a majority think he has done a good or acceptable job leading the province through the pandemic (62%), making good decisions (56%), managing the healthcare system (52%) and managing the provincial economy (57%). Ford’s performance is less positive when it comes to education, reducing the cost of living, or making housing more affordable and accessible.
THE LEADERS
Overall, impressions of Doug Ford have improved since January. Today, 41% have a positive impression of the premier (up 9 points) while 38% have a negative impression (down 8) for a net score of +3. This is the best net impression score for the premier since early 2021 and far better than before the pandemic started.
In contrast, all three main opposition leaders have net negative impression scores. Andrea Horwath is about even (31% positive and 30% negative, net score +1), Steven Del Duca (22% positive, 27% negative, net score -5), and Mike Schreiner (16% positive, 19% negative, net score -3) net negatively.
When tracking how well Ontarians know each of the major provincial party leaders, three of four have seen an increase in those saying they know the leader very or pretty well. However, a sizeable portion of the electorate still doesn’t know the three opposition party leaders that well.
BEST PREMIER: FORD LEADS BY 18
When asked who they thought would make the best premier, 35% selected Doug Ford, followed by NDP leader Andrea Horwath at 17% and Steven Del Duca at 12%. This is a sharp contrast to vote intention which finds the PCs ahead only by 4 over the Liberals (more on this below).
When we compare perceptions about the best premier with vote intention, 81% of those who would vote PC say Doug Ford would make the best premier. In contrast, supporters of other parties are less convinced that the leader of the party they would vote for would be the best premier. For example, among NDP supporters, 58% think Andrea Horwath would make the best premier. Among OLP supporters, only 37% think Steven Del Duca would make the best premier. This shows that vote intention, at least at this point, is strongly correlated to who people think will make the best premier. We will watch this closely as the campaign begins and people become more familiar with the opposition leaders.
THE DESIRE FOR CHANGE
Right now, about half of Ontarians (49%) say they definitely want to see a change in government. That’s pretty consistent with our last survey in January which found 50% definitely wanted a change in government. Another 20% say it would be good to have a change, but it isn’t that important to them.
18% definitely want to see the PCs and Doug Ford re-elected while 13% say it would be good to continue with the same party in power, but it’s not that important to them.
When we compare these results with the desire for change on the final weekend of the federal election or the week before the 2018 Ontario election, we find that the desire for change mimics what we saw federally in 2021 and is very different from the environment near the end of the 2018 Ontario election.
Among those who want to see a change in government, we asked what kind of change they want: big change from the PC government or some change that doesn’t move too quickly.
Overall, 57% of change voters want to see a big shift in direction while 43% want a more subtle change. Not surprisingly, those who definitely want a change in government are more likely to want to see big change than those who want change but say it’s not that important to them.
WHICH PARTY IS GOING TO WIN? MORE PICK THE PCs
A plurality of Ontarians believes the PC Party will win the upcoming election (37%) with 26% picking the Liberals. Only 12% feel the NDP will win. Overall, 24% are unsure who will win the election.
VOTE INTENTION: PCs LEAD BY 4 OVER THE OLP WITH THE NDP WELL BACK IN THIRD
When asked how they would vote if an election was held today, 36% of committed respondents would vote PC followed by the Ontario Liberals at 32% and the NDP at 23%. The Greens are at 6% while 4% would vote for another party.
Compared with our last survey in January, the PCs are down 1, the OLP is up 4 while the NDP is down 2.
Regionally, the PCs lead in the GTHA, eastern Ontario, southwestern Ontario, and in the north while the Liberals have an 11-point lead in Metro Toronto.
Age continues to play a key role in vote intention. Older Ontarians are far more likely to say they will vote PC than younger Ontarians.
Vaccination status is also related to voting intention. Among those with 1 or fewer COVID shots, the PCs lead the NDP by 22-points while among those with 3 or more doses, the PCs lead by 5. Among those who have only 2 doses, the OLP has a 7-point lead over the PCs.
When we compare federal vote with current provincial vote intention, 78% of federal Conservative voters would vote PC today while 76% of federal NDP voters would vote for the Ontario NDP. Among federal Liberal voters, 67% would vote OLP while 17% would vote NDP and 14% would vote PC. Among those who voted for the People’s Party federally, 34% would vote PC while 20% would vote for another party.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “With only a few weeks until the 2022 Ontario election kicks off, the opinion environment favours the PCs and Doug Ford. However, too many variables remain in play to make any prediction about how the election might unfold. In the lead-up to the campaign, Doug Ford’s personal image has improved markedly since earlier this year. He is now net positive and he’s less polarizing than he has been over the past year.
The cost of living is top of mind for more voters as housing, healthcare, and taxes round out the list of top issues. The PCs and Doug Ford have a natural advantage on that matter but are not immune to criticism about how their government has handled the issue.
While about half of Ontarians definitely want a change in government, the desire for change isn’t at a level where a PC re-election is in peril. The federal Liberals faced a similar environment in the lead-up to that vote.
Although the Ontario Liberals are within striking distance in the hypothetical ballot, other results in this survey suggest they still have a lot of work to do if they are going to win the election. Steven Del Duca remains unknown to a large portion of the electorate and those that do have an impression of him are more likely to view him negatively than positively. He is well back in third when respondents are asked who will make the best premier. What is unknown at this point is whether vote intention will align more closely with the perceived best premier or whether the Liberals can hold onto their support despite how people feel about Mr. Del Duca.
The Ontario NDP and leader Andrea Horwath have a more challenging path to replicate gains made in 2018 or even contest for power. Despite being the leader for over 13 years, many Ontarians still don’t know much about her and her net favourable rating is even. Worse, only 12% of Ontarians think the NDP will win the election, half as many who think the Ontario Liberals will win. If the NDP falls too far behind the Liberals, there is a real risk that change voters will consolidate around the Liberals.”
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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from April 14 to 19, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 2,000 Canadians from April 4 to 9, 2022.
WORRIED ABOUT COVID TODAY
Just under 1 in 5 people in Canada indicate they are extremely or very worried about Covid 19 today, while 59% say they are not very concerned or only a little bit concerned. Concern levels are modestly higher among older than younger people. Those who are vaccinated are more concerned than those who aren’t, by a wide margin.
IS YOUR ANXIETY RISING OR FALLING?
Roughly equal numbers of people say they have been more worried (29%) in recent days as say they have become less worried (27%). The number of people who say they have become more worried is up slightly from February but is one of the lower levels we’ve seen over the two years we’ve been tracking this indicator.
IS THE WORST BEHIND US?
The number of people who feel the worst of Covid is yet to come is 16%, which is actually down from the 25% we measured in January. Forty (40%) percent say the worst is behind us now, close to the highest number we’ve measured in two years.
THE UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson:
“The 6th wave of the Covid pandemic has had a far weaker impact on public anxiety than the waves that preceded it. This is undoubtedly because so many people are vaccinated but also because as the number of cases rose dramatically, more and more people either experienced firsthand, or heard from those they know, that their symptoms were manageable and that the strains on the health system were limited.“
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from August 4 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. Most of the interviews were completed prior to the federal budget released on April 7.
Yesterday, we shared some data on how Canadians might react to Pierre Poilievre’s campaign narrative. Today, we look at the broader political opinion environment.
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL
The mood of the country is little changed from last month, with 39% thinking the country is headed in the right direction, and 46% think it’s off on the wrong track. Canadians continue to see the situation in the US and around the world as worse than Canada’s context: just 26% feel the US and the world are heading in the right direction.
Approval of the federal government is also steady with 41% approving (+1) and 44% disapproving (+2). Approval is up 3-points since early February and in line with levels observed throughout much of last year.
Net approval (approve – disapprove) is – 3 nationally +2 in BC, -28 in Alberta, -6 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, -2 in Ontario, -2 in Quebec, and +16 in Atlantic Canada.
Among those who voted NDP in 2021, 38% approve of the federal government’s job performance compared with just 14% among those who voted Conservative.
LEADER IMPRESSIONS
Since last month, Justin Trudeau’s personal image has slid a bit to levels we saw in February. With 36% positive impressions and 45% negative Mr. Trudeau’s net score is –9. Among Liberal voters, 76% have a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau while 31% of NDP and 22% of Green Party voters feel positive about him. 79% of Conservative Party voters have a negative view of the PM.
Positive impressions of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh exactly the same as last month. Today, he enjoys a positive impression among 41% and finds negative impressions among 28% for a net score of +13.
79% of NDP voters have a positive impression of Mr. Singh as do half of Liberal voters (54%). 1 in 5 Conservative voters have a positive view of him while 57% view him negatively.
Today, 23% have a positive impression of interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen (+1 since last month) while her negatives are at 30% (unchanged) for a net score of -7. Mr. O’Toole finished his time as leader with a net favourability of -25.
VOTING INTENTION
If an election were held now, the Liberals would be marginally ahead of the Conservatives in the popular vote – 33% to 31%. The NDP is at 18% nationally while the BQ is at 8%, the People’s Party is at 5%, and the Greens at 4%.
Compared to our results at the end of March, Liberal vote is up 2, Conservatives down 2, NDP up 1. Compared to the election result last November, Liberals have gained a point and Conservatives have lost three points.
• BC: Conservatives are at 32%, and the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 27%.
• Alberta: 51% would vote Conservative compared with 23% for the NDP, 15% for the Liberal Party, and 5% for the People’s Party.
• Manitoba and Saskatchewan: The Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the Liberals at 28%, NDP at 23%, and the People’s Party at 7%.
• Ontario: The Liberals lead by 4 over the Conservatives (38% to 34%) with the NDP in third at 17%. The People’s Party is polling at 7% in Ontario. In Toronto and the GTHA (where 58% of the population lives), the Liberals are at 43%, the Conservatives at 33% and the NDP at 16%.
• Quebec: We see the BQ and Liberals basically tied (37% to 34%) with the Conservatives at 15%, the NDP at 9%.
• Atlantic: The Liberals are well ahead of the Conservatives (45% to 26%) with the NDP in third at 15%.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “With a war in Ukraine, rising inflation, a Liberal-NDP alliance, and a sixth wave of the pandemic, there is no shortage of factors that could cause the political mood of the country to shift – but so far opinions continue to trade in a fairly narrow range. While voting intention numbers don’t reveal it, Liberals will note that the disapproval numbers for the government and negative opinions of Mr. Trudeau have been notching a little bit higher in the first quarter of 2022 than through most of 2021. This could be a signal that fatigue with the incumbents has been creeping upward a bit, but it could also be a reaction to inflation and the stubbornness of the pandemic and the steps people are required to take to adapt to it”
According to David Coletto: “The political opinion environment has remained fairly stable despite many events competing for the public’s attention and concern including the invasion of Ukraine, the Liberal-NDP agreement, another COVID wave, interest rate increases, strong macro-economic indicators (unemployment rate), and rising inflation. If an election was held today, we would likely see a similar result to the last election. So far, little has happened that has fundamentally shifted the public’s preferences or impressions. We will continue to monitor the opinion environment as the Conservative leadership race unfolds and as Ontarians gear up to vote in the upcoming provincial election.”
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METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Abacus Data recently completed a national survey with a sample of 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. In that survey, we showed respondents who completed the survey in English the campaign launch video of Conservative Party leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre as a way to test reaction to his campaign’s central argument and message.
This is the video that was shown to respondents:
DO CANADIANS AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH WHAT HE SAID IN THE VIDEO?
Overall, half of English-speaking Canadians said they either strongly agree (23%) or agree (29%) with “what was shared in the video”. 24% disagreed (13% strongly) while 24% neither agreed nor disagreed.
Mr. Poilievre’s video was far more appealing to those who currently support the Conservative Party or the People’s Party with 79% of Conservatives and 83% of People’s Party supporters saying they agreed with what they say.
But there was also a sizeable minority of Liberal Party (36%), NDP (40%) , and Green Party (37%) supporters who also agreed with what was shared in the video.
Only about 1 in 5 Liberal and NDP supporters said they strongly disagreed with that Mr. Poilievre said in the video.
Most striking was the reaction to the video by age. Those aged 30 to 44 were the most likely to agree (59%) while those aged 60 and over were the least likely to agree (45%).
Unlike in other political behaviours or attitudes, education isn’t strongly related to reaction to the video largely because age is a greater predictor of reaction and younger Canadians, who are also more likely to have higher education levels, reacted more positively to the video.
There was also a relationship between vaccination status and agreement with the video. Those who did not receive a COVID-19 vaccine or those with one shot were the most likely to agree while those with three or more shots were the least likely to agree (and most likely to strongly disagree).
Earlier in the survey, we asked people for their overall impression of Mr. Poilievre. Among those who had an initially positive impression of him, 91% agreed with the video. Among those with a neutral view, 60% agreed, while only 20% of those who had a negative view of Mr. Poilievre agreed with the video.
DOES THE POILIEVRE CAMPAIGN MESSAGE PUSH OR PULL VOTERS?
Respondents were then asked whether they would consider or not consider voting for Mr. Poilievre if he was the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.
Overall, 49% said they would definitely or probably consider voting Conservative while 39% said they wouldn’t. Given that the accessible voter pool for the Conservative Party is currently at 41%, this suggests Mr. Poilievre’s message and a campaign could increase the appeal of the party.
The video did little to repel current Conservative voters (5% say they would probably not or definitely not consider voting Conservative) and could actually attract a small portion of current Liberal, NDP, and Green supporters. Most striking, 78% of those who currently support the People’s Party say they would definitely consider or probably would consider voting Conservative if Mr. Poilievre was the leader after watching the video.
The potential of Mr. Poilievre’s message to increase Conservative support among younger voters is clear from the survey. 51% of 18 to 29-year-olds and 57% of those aged 30 to 44 say they would definitely or probably consider voting Conservative.
In this same survey, the accessible Conservative vote share among those age groups is 37% and 43% respectively. This means that if successful, Poilievre could substantially increase the accessible Conservative voter pool among two demographics that have been a weakness for the Conservatives in the past three federal elections.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “Earlier this month, we shared polling data that found Pierre Poilievre has a clear advantage when it comes to both his image and support among Conservative Party supporters, a potential indicator of his support within the Conservative Party.
This test, while imperfect and limited, demonstrates that Mr. Poilievre’s broader message and argument may not be as offensive or unappealing to the general public as some may have assumed. In fact, his arguments about the housing market and taking back control of one’s life resonates the most with younger Canadians – a demographic that the Conservatives have struggled to connect with in the past.
However, one flag in the research is the more negative reaction older Canadians have to his message. So on the one hand Mr. Poilievre may grow the Conservative universe among younger Canadians, but he could also risk support among more reliable older voters. His message is likely unlike anything Canadians have heard before and his leadership of the Conservative Party has the potential to realign Canadian politics. For those who say Mr. Polievre can’t win a general election, these results, at least, for now, suggest otherwise.”
And check out this recent piece I wrote about some core audiences in Canada that I think you’ll find interesting. To better understand Mr. Poilievre’s appeal, I think this should be required reading.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from April 4 to 9, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We recently completed a national survey with a sample of 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022.
UKRAINE AND FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSE
Most Canadians continue to believe that the federal government is doing a good job or doing as well as can be expected in terms of providing support for Ukraine. Over the last several weeks, these numbers have slipped marginally, however it remains the case that less than 20% of Canadians are critical of the Government of Canada’s effort in all areas explored.
There has been an increase in the number of people who believe that Russia’s effort to take over Ukraine will be stopped, from 43% to 46%. Most Canadians think that Russia’s effort will fail either in the nearer term or over the longer term. Only 23% believe Russia will prevail and pressure from the rest of the world will abate.
Most people (53%) continue to believe that Putin will be gone from office in two years.
One in four people has made a financial contribution in some form, to support Ukraine.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians have been paying a great deal of attention to this conflict and have been solidly on the side of Ukraine. There is widespread support for helping Ukraine through a number of government measures and an understanding that some of what we can accomplish can only be of value if it is coordinated with our allies. This is a rare area of public opinion where there is little partisan division. Only People’s Party supporters seem noticeably different from the norm, more likely to think Russia and Putin will prevail and more critical of government efforts to support Ukraine.“
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from March 22 to 25, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
