Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto joined the Front Bench Panel on CTV’s Power Play on Thursday, April 4. He joined former BC Premier Christy Clark and former Toronto Mayor John Tory.
Watch the video here:
Between February 29 and March 6, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and above to investigate the housing market and perceptions of gentle density. The findings underscore the urgency for action in response to expected price hikes and availability worries. Moreover, attitudes towards gentle density challenge common NIMBYism beliefs, emphasizing the necessity for innovative governmental interventions and zoning reforms to address the housing crisis and support vulnerable communities.
Affordability and Accessibility Concerns
When examining the affordability and accessibility of housing in 2024, a significant number of Canadians continue to express serious concerns about the persistent housing crisis. Notably, 55% of Canadians foresee a continued rise in housing prices this year, while merely 13% expect a decline. Additionally, only 25% of Canadians are optimistic about an improvement in housing availability in the upcoming year, with 75% acknowledging that accessibility will either remain stagnant or further deteriorate. This pessimistic perspective continues to emphasize the necessity of addressing the challenges concerning housing affordability and accessibility.
Support For Gentle Density
Just 15% of Canadians hold the belief that gentle density will not affect housing affordability in their region. In contrast, 16% believe it will strongly impact affordability, while 70% believe it will have impact hosing availability, although not a major one. This suggests that the majority perceive gentle density as beneficial, although they don’t consider it the sole solution to the housing crisis.
Although Canadians are generally more supportive of gentle density when it’s farther away from their immediate vicinity (with 53% supporting it within their province; 48% support it within their city), this support tends to diminish as the concept of gentle density approaches closer to their homes (with only 36% supporting it on their block). However, even with this trend, very few Canadians express strong opposition to the idea of gentle density, even at the local level. Specifically, only 29% of Canadians would oppose gentle density on their block, suggesting that the phenomenon of NIMBYism may not be as pervasive as commonly perceived.
The strongest resistance to gentle density in one’s immediate vicinity stems from homeowners (36% oppose) and those aged 60 and above (36% oppose). Moreover, individuals intending to vote for the Conservative party (36% oppose) in the upcoming federal election exhibit stronger opposition to gentle density in their backyard compared to those aligning with the Liberal (25% oppose) and NDP parties (24% oppose). Provincially, residents of Alberta (34% oppose) and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (33% oppose) present the strongest opposition to gentle density in one’s own backyard. Despite this, the findings indicate that the majority of Canadians hold a neutral or supportive stance when contemplating gentle density development “in their backyard”.
Perceived Benefits of Gentle Density
Canadians highlight several benefits of gentle density, including improved access to affordable housing (55%), better use of existing infrastructure (39%), and reduced urban sprawl with preserved green spaces (31%). Additionally, they see advantages in promoting economic growth and local business vitality (25%), as well as creating more walkable and bike-friendly neighbourhoods, increasing public transportation availability, and enhancing community interactions. These insights illustrate Canadians’ awareness of the diverse advantages of gentle density, from addressing housing affordability to fostering sustainable development and stronger community connections.
Perceived Drawbacks of Gentle Density
While acknowledging potential benefits, Canadians express concerns about gentle density, including overcrowding and reduced privacy (46%), increased traffic and congestion (41%), and higher noise levels (35%). Additionally, 32% worry about potential crime increases in their neighborhood, and 1 in 4 are apprehensive about impacts on property values, loss of neighbourhood character, and overdevelopment with a lack of green spaces. These concerns highlight the need to address community apprehensions and ensure a balanced approach to urban development.
The Upshot
The current data highlights Canadians’ positive views on gentle density, emphasizing its potential to tackle housing affordability, promote sustainability, and enhance community well-being. This underscores the need for government to consider implementing policies supporting gentle density initiatives to address pressing housing affordability, promote sustainable development, and strengthen community vitality.
Contrary to expectations, there is minimal opposition to gentle density, even locally, challenging the widespread belief in NIMBYism. This presents an opportunity for collaborative action between government and communities to enact effective policies and initiatives supporting gentle density.
Instead of assuming Canadians aren’t interested in gentle density, it’s crucial to listen to and address their concerns regarding overcrowding, traffic congestion, and safety. By doing so, government at all levels can help those who oppose this approach better understand its potential benefits for communities. Policymakers must listen to these concerns and work together on innovative solutions to tackle the housing crisis while maintaining the unique character and livability of neighbourhoods.
Overall, these findings continue demonstrate the urgent needs to people to come together and do something about the housing crisis in Canada. While some may be opposed to the idea of gentle density, it is an approach that offers a way to make housing more affordable and accessible while also making our cities more sustainable. It’s not just about building more houses; it’s about creating neighbourhoods where everyone feels like they belong. It’s about keeping the heart and soul of our communities alive while making sure everyone has a place to call home. And you know what? A lot of Canadians are on board with that.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 28 to March 6, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From March 14 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 Alberta adults exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
This is the first time we have fielded one of our public surveys in Alberta since Rachel Notley announced she was stepping down as NDP leader, triggering a leadership election. This survey was also completed prior to the announcement on Tuesday morning by NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi that she is dropping out of the NDP leadership race and endorsing Naheed Nenshi.
In this report, we share results of the core political opinion questions, a bit of a deep-dive on impressions of the provincial government led by Danielle Smith, and a look at how Albertans feel about the NDP leadership candidates and how they perform in hypothetical match-ups with Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party.
The UCP holds a 15-point lead over the Alberta NDP
If a provincial election were held today, 55% of committed Alberta adults would vote UCP while 40% would vote Alberta NDP. 2% would vote for the Alberta Party while 2% would vote for another party. Since our last survey in October 2023, the UCP is down 1 while the NDP is unchanged.
Since the 2023 provincial election, the NDP is down 4 while the UCP is up 2.
Regionally, the UCP is ahead by 8 in Calgary (52% to 44%) and 38 in other communities outside Calgary and Edmonton-proper. In Edmonton, the Alberta NDP is ahead by 11 (53% to 42%).
The UCP lead by 22 among men, 7 among women and holds a commanding 39-point lead among Albertans aged 60+. Among those under 45 the two parties are basically tied.
When it comes to how Albertans feel about the performance of the Danielle Smith government, 32% approve while 38% disapprove. In Calgary, the Smith government’s net approval is -13, in Edmonton it is -20, and in the rest of the province it is +11.
Impressions of the two main party leaders are fairly similar. 38% of Albertans have a positive impression of Premier Smith while 40% have a negative impression for a net score of -1. NDP Leader Rachel Notley has a net score of -12, with 31% viewing her positively and 43% negatively.
How do Albertans feel about the provincial government?
Respondents were asked to choose phrases or words that describe the Smith government. We asked the same question to our national sample about the Trudeau government and to a large sample in Ontario about the provincial government led by Danielle Smith. We will share results of those results in the coming days.
In Alberta, views of the Smith government are mixed but generally more positive than how people feel about the Ford government in Ontario or the Trudeau government federally.
More than half of Albertans feel the Smith government is “clear on what it wants Alberta to be” rather than “unclear on what it wants Alberta to be”. Half thinks the government is “focused” while 33% think it is “distracted”. More feel it is “effective” than “ineffective” and about equal numbers feels the government is “focused on the right priorities” rather than “focused on the wrong priorities”.
34% describe the government as “unifying” while 42% think it is “divisive” and 43% describes it as “proactive”, more than feel it is “reactive”.
Overall, for a government that has taken on some controversial issues, these results suggest it is seen positively and in the right frame with a sizeable portion of the population.
But we also asked respondents whether they feel the provincial government is sufficiently focused on or addressing several key issues. Areas where most Albertans want to see the government more focused include “managing the cost of living” (60%) and “improving the healthcare system” (58). Another 52% think it could be more focused on “keeping your taxes as low as possible”.
In contrast, the provincial government is more likely to be seen as sufficiently focused on “standing up for Alberta” (49%) and “growing the Alberta economy” (37%).
One area where there’s more neutral views is on climate change. 38% of Albertans feel the provincial government could be more focused on it, 28% think it is moderately or highly focused on it, while 34% are either neutral or unsure about it.
These results suggest that so far, the Smith government has done a pretty good job managing expectations and signalling to its coalition that it’s sufficiently handling the top issues people report are important to them.
The Alberta NDP Leadership Race
In this survey, we also asked several questions regarding the Alberta NDP leadership election.
We started by assessing the impressions people have of the six candidates running to be Alberta NDP leader. A few things stand out:
1 Naheed Nenshi is by far the most well known of the candidates. 74% of Albertans had an impression of Mr. Nenshi, significantly higher than Sarah Hoffman (49%), Kathleen Ganley (60%), Rakhi Pancholi (39%), Hil McGowan (39%), or Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse (37%).
2. Naheed Nenshi is also the only candidate who has a clear net positive impression. 31% of Albertans have a positive view of him compared with 23% who have a negative view for a net score of +8. Kathleen Ganley is the only other candidate with a net positive, but just barely at +1.
3. Nenshi’s net scores are +14 in Calgary, +9 in Edmonton, and -1 in the rest of the province. Sarah Hoffman’s net scores are +2 in Edmonton, -6 in Calgary, and -3 in the rest of the province. Note, only 42% of Albertans outside the two largest cities have an impression of Ms. Hoffman.
And so apart from Mr. Nenshi, none of the other leadership candidates are household names (they rarely are in leadership races) and Mr. Nenshi has a substantial advantage when it comes to name recognition and favourability.
Now, we also tested five of the candidate in hypothetical matchups with Danielle Smith and the UCP.
From that exercise we learned a few things:
None of the leadership candidates perform as well as Rachel Notley as part of our main ballot question although Naheed Nenshi performs better than anyone else. This is likely more about his name recognition than any ability to attract Albertans who wouldn’t otherwise vote NDP – except in Calgary.
When we look at the regional dynamics, a few things stand out. In Edmonton, no one performs as well as Rachel Notley currently does. The main ballot question has the NDP ahead by 11. In all of the hypotheticals, that gap drops considerable.
In Calgary, Nenshi performs best, turning an 8 point UCP lead into a statistical tie. None of the other candidates perform better than Rachel Notley currently in Calgary.
Outside of Edmonton and Calgary, Nenshi performance as well as Notley but with all other possible NDP leaders the UCP lead grows.
Finally, another way to look at the potential impact of each NDP leadership candidate to shake up vote intentions to see how much of NDP support they retain and how much support they attract from other parties.
Naheed Nenshi does the best at attracting new supporters and retaining more of the current NDP support base. Sarah Hoffman retains more of the NDP base than other candidates, except for Nenshi, but attracts slightly less UCP and other party supporters than Nenshi. All the other candidates hold 2 in 3 current NDP supporters or less and attract few UCP candidates.
But the big takeaway is how little UCP support is attracted to any of the candidates at the moment demonstrating the level of polarization in Alberta at the moment.
It is also worth noting that given Nenshi name recognition advantage, this comparison isn’t a perfect measure of potential opportunity or risk for the other candidates but it does clearly show how challenging it will be for any of these candidates, if elected leader, to grow the NDP support base. Nenshi likely has the best chance and right now is the lower risk at losing existing NDP support.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “In reflecting on the findings of our recent survey, it’s clear that Premier Danielle Smith’s position in Alberta politics remains robust ten months into her mandate.
Retaining the support garnered in the last election, her government appears not only to have maintained its winning coalition but also enjoys a reasonably favourable approval rating amidst challenging economic conditions. This standing is especially notable when compared to incumbents in other provinces.
The Smith government is perceived as having a distinct mission and vision, demonstrating effectiveness in its undertakings, and maintaining focus on what many Albertans deem the right priorities, despite criticisms around certain initiatives like the Alberta Pension Plan and on-going disputes with Ottawa – which Albertans recognize as an area the government has focused a lot on.
The Alberta NDP leadership race introduces an intriguing dynamic, particularly with Naheed Nenshi’s advantage on name recognition and favourability among the candidates. His recent endorsement by former leadership candidate and NDP MLA Rakhi Pancholi, coupled with claims of a significant increase in party membership, underscores his potential to translate personal brand into political capital. This development is crucial in leadership contests, where the ability to mobilize new members can decisively tilt the scales. Nenshi’s profile offers the Alberta NDP a formidable asset in its leadership transition, highlighting the strategic importance of both visibility and organizational support in such contests.
However, the broader challenge for the Alberta NDP, and indeed for any leader emerging from its ongoing leadership race, lies in positioning the party as a credible and appealing alternative to the United Conservative Party under Danielle Smith. Despite a leadership race that has garnered national attention, the ultimate electoral test will be in persuading UCP supporters to change their preferences. More akin to convincing cola drinkers to stop drinking cola than switching from Pepsi to Coke.
Premier Smith’s brand, characterized by having a clear vision and a focus on priority issues for Albertans, sets a high bar. The evolving political landscape in Alberta, shaped by both individual leadership qualities and collective party dynamics, continues to be a compelling study in contrasts and possibilities.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Alberta adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From March 14 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 Ontario adults exploring several topics as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Every month, with our media partner the Toronto Star, we track how Ontarians are feeling about their political choices and add new topics based on current events and discussions. In this edition of the survey, we explored perceptions about Doug Ford’s government in more depth and the relationship between Ford, Prime Minister Trudeau, and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
We begin by examining the current political landscape in Ontario.
Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs lead by 14 percentage points over Bonnie Crombie’s Ontario Liberals.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters in Ontario would vote PC with the Ontario Liberals at 27%, the Ontario NDP at 21%, and the Greens at 7%.
Since our last survey, the PC and Liberal vote share is steady while the Ontario NDP is up 2.
Regionally, the PCs lead in every region of the province. They are ahead by 9 in Toronto, 11 in the GTHA, 21 in southwestern Ontario, and 19 in eastern Ontario.
The PCs also lead among men (by 21) and women (by 6) and across every age group. Over time, we have noticed that the PCs have become more popular among younger Ontarians. This mimics what we have seen at the national level with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and something we think is directly tied to the popularity of Poilievre among younger Ontarians. More on that below.
When it comes to the Ford government overall, 1 in 3 Ontarians approve of the government’s job performance while 43% disapprove. Since last month, the Ford government’s approval rating is up 4-points while disapproval is down 5 points since the beginning of the year.
Impressions of the four main party leaders are stable since last month. 1 in 3 have a favourable view of Premier Ford compared with 43% who have a negative impression for a net score of -11.
Marit Stiles has a net score of +2, while Bonnie Crombie is even with 27% positive and 27% negative.
How do Ontarians View the Ford Government?
Respondents were asked to choose phrases or words that describe the Ford government. We asked the same question to our national sample about the Trudeau government and to a large sample in Alberta about the provincial government led by Danielle Smith. We will share results of those results in the coming days.
In Ontario, views of the Ford government are mixed. For example, Ontarians are about evenly split on whether the provincial government is focused or distracted, whther it is clear on what it wants Ontario to be or not, and whether it is effective or ineffective. Moreover, about 1 in 3 feel the provincial government is focused on the right priorities, proactive rather than reactive, and empathetic rather than indifferent.
And the importance of these perceptions are shown when we look at the correlation between perceptions and vote intention. The table below reports the PC vote share by response. It shows that the strongest predictors of support for the PCs are among those who think the government is focused on the right priorities, is collaborative, is effective, and is empathetic. And if you think about the Premier’s actions over the past several months – efforts to be seen as “getting things done” and responsive to the public (empathy) – are important to its image and political support.
Is Pierre Poilievre lifting the Ford PCs in Ontario?
In this survey, we also asked several questions about the relationship between Doug Ford, Justin Trudeau, and Pierre Poilievre – trying to understand what public perceptions are and whether Pierre Poilievre is helping or hurting the PCs in Ontario.
Here’s what we found:
Half of Ontarians believe that the relationship between Doug Ford and Justin Trudeau is close or at least cordial and profession. Another 30% believe it is cold, distant, or antagonistic.
In contrast, fewer people have a sense of the relationship between Doug Ford and Pierre Poilievre. 38% don’t know what the relationship is like with the rest split. More feel the relationship is positive or cordial (48%) than think it’s cold, distant, or antagonistic (15%).
When asked whether they think Doug Ford and Pierre Poilievre would work well together or not, if Poilievre were to become Prime Minister, 45% think they would work well together, including 74% of PC supporters, 66% of federal Conservative supporters in Ontario. Federal Liberal supporters in Ontario are split with 35% thinking they would work well together and 35% thinking they wouldn’t.
When asked who they think Doug Ford would prefer to be Prime Minister – Poilievre or Trudeau – 56% think he’d prefer Poilievre as Prime Minister while about 1 in 5 think he prefers Trudeau. 27% are unsure. Among Ontario PC supporters, 12% think he’d prefer Trudeau. Among federal Conservative supporters in Ontario, that drops to 5%.
We also asked people how they felt about Ford and Poilievre. 1 in 4 Ontarians (26%) say they like both men while 16% like Poilievre but not Ford, and 10% like Ford but not Poilievre. 31% like neither while 16% don’t have clear views on either of them.
Among Ontario PC supporters, 66% say they like both while 15% like Ford and not Poilievre while 9% like Poilievre and not Ford. Among federal Conservative supporters in Ontario, half like both men equally while 28% like Poilievre but not Ford and 6% like Ford and not Poilievre.
Finally, when we ask those who would vote Conservative federally AND Progressive Conservative in Ontario whether they identify more closely as a Ford Conservative or a Poilievre Conservative, 44% identify more as a Poilievre Conservative, 20% more as a Ford Conservative, and 33% say they identify with both equally. Interestingly, federal/provincial Conservative voters under 44 are more likely to identify with Poilievre signally the impact that Poilievre’s popularity with younger people is having on Ontario PC support.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Doug Ford’s PC Party remain in a strong position in Ontario. The provincial government’s approval rating is improving, disapproval is dropping, and its hypothetical vote intention is holding steady.
The additional questions we asked this month provide nuanced insight into the complex relationship between the federal Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre and the provincial Progressive Conservative (PC) Party led by Doug Ford in Ontario. It also sheds light on potential dynamics between Doug Ford and the federal political leaders, Pierre Poilievre and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Our polling indicates a general perception that Doug Ford has a closer or at least a cordial and professional relationship with Justin Trudeau compared to Pierre Poilievre, with half of Ontarians viewing the Ford-Trudeau relationship positively. However, perceptions of Ford’s relationship with Poilievre are less clear, with a significant portion of the population either unaware of the nature of their relationship or viewing it as positive or cordial.
A notable percentage of Ontarians, including a majority of PC and federal Conservative supporters, believe that Ford and Poilievre would work well together if Poilievre were to become Prime Minister. This suggests a perceived alignment or compatibility in their political or governance approaches among their supporters.
Given the perception that Ford has a somewhat positive relationship with both Trudeau and Poilievre, Ford may navigate his political strategy based on practical considerations rather than personal affinity. However, the strong belief among Ontarians that he would prefer Poilievre as Prime Minister, especially among Conservative supporters, may pressure Ford to display a more visible alignment or cooperation with Poilievre, especially if Poilievre’s influence and popularity continues to grow. This pressure will grow even more if more and more people come to expect that Poilievre will be Prime Minister after the next federal election.
The distinction between those who identify more with Poilievre or Ford among Conservative voters hints at differing political brands within the Conservative spectrum in Ontario. This differentiation could influence Ford’s approach to provincial governance, potentially balancing between maintaining his political identity and aligning with Poilievre’s policies to ensure cohesive support from the Conservative base.
Finally, these results also demonstrate the importance of the Ford government following through on its promise to get things done as perceptions of focus and effectiveness are the strongest predictors of support for the Ontario PC Party.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Ontario adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From March 16 to 21, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,550 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversampled both Ontario and Alberta to get a better sense of what is happening in those provinces. Tomorrow, we will release new polling on the Ontario political landscape.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with some new data on how Canadians feel about the Trudeau government and the relationship with vote intention.
Conservatives lead by 17 over the Liberals.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 33% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives and Liberals are down 1 and the NDP is up 1. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen stability in vote intentions with the Conservatives consistently in the low 40s and the Liberals stuck in the low to mid 20s.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 11 in BC and 16 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 17-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 7 over the Liberals with the Conservatives six points behind the Liberals at 20%.
If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives holding steady at 44% and the Liberals at 26%.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how millennials have shifted their preferences over the past 8 years, see my substack here.
The Conservatives continue to capture a larger share of the vote among both men and women. Liberal vote share is the same among men and women while the NDP does 9-points better among women than it does among men. For a deep dive on the differences between men and women, check out this analysis by my colleague Oksana Kishchuk released on Friday.
When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 52% say they are open to voting Conservative (unchanged from last month) while, 41% are open to voting Liberal (up 2). 42% say they are open to voting NDP.
We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.
We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters while Liberal supporters are more certain to vote than NDP supporters.
What else are Canadians thinking?
The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 16% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.
The federal government’s approval rating is unchanged from last wave. 26% approve while 59% disapprove of the job performance of the federal government led by Justin Trudeau, up a single point and within the margin of error. Those disapproving of the federal government’s performance has been between 56% and 59% since September 2023.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau are static. 58% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 24% have a positive view for a net score of -34.
In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also unchanged with 38% viewing him positively and 34% negatively for a net score of +4.
Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also largely unchanged. Today 33% have a negative impression compared with 33% who have a positive one for a net score of 0.
15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged from last month while those who think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative is at 52%, around the average since September 2023. We will continue to monitor this perception as it may be a leading indicator for vote intention.
The view that the Conservatives will win the next election continues to grow. Today, 46% think the Conservatives will win the next election (down 1 since last wave) and up 7 points since October 2023. 21% think the Liberals will win, while 8% think the NDP will win. 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure or say another party will win.
Finally, in this survey we Canadians to share their view on the Trudeau government. They were shown pairs of statements/words and asked which best describes the federal government at moment.
Half or more Canadians believe the federal government led by Justin Trudeau is
And close to half feel it is:
More than a third of Canadians feel the federal government is ambitious while 34% describe it as collaborative rather than adversarial.
And the importance of these perceptions are shown when we look at the correlation between perceptions and vote intention. The table below reports the Liberal vote share by response. It shows that the strongest predictors of support for the Liberals are perceptions it is effective, focused on the right priorities, focused, and transparent. If the government wants to improve it’s image, focusing on those perceptions would be the most effective way to do that.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Little if anything has changed over the past two weeks in terms of political opinions in Canada.
The mood of the country remains quite negative, with only one in four Canadians believing that the country is headed in the right direction. This consistent sentiment is mirrored in the federal government’s approval ratings, with 59% disapproving of the job performance of the government led by Justin Trudeau. These perceptions are crucial as they continue to shape the political narrative and the filter by which people assess decisions and events in and around Ottawa.
In evaluating the Trudeau government, Canadians expressed concerns about its focus and effectiveness, with a majority viewing the government as distracted, focused on the wrong priorities, and closed. These perceptions are closely tied to vote intention, suggesting any path back to competitiveness for the Liberals will require it to address these public perceptions.
While the Conservatives enjoy a commanding lead, our data suggests they might be approaching their maximum potential support, particularly with the notable challenge of gaining traction in Quebec. The real test now is to solidify the new coalition they have built across various demographics and regions. This involves not just holding onto their current support base but reinforcing the commitment of those who have recently aligned with them. The Conservatives are uniquely equipped with the resources needed to engage in this critical consolidation effort, almost unparalleled in the current political landscape. Ensuring that their newfound coalition feels heard and represented could be pivotal in transforming their polling strength into lasting electoral success.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,550 Canadian adults from March 16 to 21, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.7%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Between February 29 and March 6, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey with 1,500 Canadians aged 18 and above to examine the multifaceted challenges Canadians anticipate in 2024, particularly focusing on the persistent housing crisis, financial insecurity, and government stability. The results reveal widespread concerns regarding housing affordability, financial stability, and trust in governance, emphasizing the necessity for comprehensive policy measures to address these issues and inspire hope for a brighter and more promising future for all citizens. This sentiment not only reflects the adversities Canadians face but also signals a growing disillusionment with the prospects for improvement.
Canadians are overwhelmingly concerned about the housing crisis, with a substantial 68% anticipating worsening affordability and accessibility in 2024, while only 10% are optimistic about improvement. This sobering perspective underscores the urgent need to tackle issues of housing affordability and accessibility.
The plight of first-time buyers is particularly worrisome, as a staggering 74% of Canadians foresee the housing market becoming more unaffordable and less accessible for this demographic, sharply contrasting with the meager 5% holding out hope for better affordability and accessibility. Additionally, a concerning 57% of prospective first-time homebuyers express pessimism about their chances of homeownership or have abandoned the idea altogether, compared to 48% who held the same view in September 2023.
Government (at all levels) must prioritize initiatives and policies aimed at bolstering housing affordability, which may involve expanding housing supply, implementing rent controls, and providing financial assistance to prospective buyers.
There is a troubling pattern regarding Canadians’ financial security, with half of the population (52%) expressing feelings of personal financial insecurity, while 33% acknowledge having some concerns despite considering their finances adequate. This concern is exacerbated by the revelation that 71% of Canadians report their household debt levels are increasing, leading to financial strain and instability.
Expectations for economic recovery in 2024 are marked by skepticism, as 65% of Canadians anticipate a slow and uncertain trajectory. Moreover, 69% of Canadians believe that inflation and the cost of living are going to continue to rise, affecting people’s finances.
Amidst these apprehensions about the economic outlook, many Canadians are concerned about the social divisions exacerbated by the current landscape. Specifically, a majority (53%) of respondents worry about growing economic inequality and social disparities.
Overall, these findings reflect widespread pessimism and uncertainty about 2024’s economic outlook. Policymakers should address economic stability, inflation control, and affordability concerns to restore confidence. Measures aimed at promoting economic growth, stabilizing prices, and supporting households amidst rising living costs may be necessary to address these challenges effectively.
Public confidence in government policies and economic stability appears fragile, with 61% of Canadians expressing concerns about the state of governance, while 70% perceive global economic conditions and geopolitical risks as volatile. To restore trust and ensure stability, policymakers must prioritize transparency, accountability, and effective governance practices. Furthermore, proactive engagement with global partners to address geopolitical risks and foster international cooperation is essential for safeguarding Canada’s economic interests in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
Overall, the data reveals deep-seated challenges facing Canadians across housing affordability, financial stability, and trust in governance. The prevailing sentiment underscores a pervasive sense of uncertainty and frustration regarding the future. While encountering challenging times is not uncommon, the overarching concern is the dwindling hope for positive change – individuals feel as though they’re paddling against the current, fostering a strong sense of pessimism. This sentiment reflects not only the adversities faced by Canadians but also a mounting disillusionment with the prospects for improvement.
These perceptions have the potential to influence the behaviors and expectations of consumers, workers, and voters, molding their decisions and attitudes. The erosion of trust and optimism regarding one’s future outlook poses considerable challenges for effective policymaking and governance, particularly as many Canadians feel disillusioned with current efforts.
In light of this, Canadians urgently require relief, and the government must demonstrate its commitment to tackling these issues by offering viable solutions that provide relief to Canadians and restore hope for a brighter future. Voters are looking for leadership that can address their needs and restore their confidence in the government’s ability to govern effectively and improve their quality of life.
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 28 to March 6, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
In January, Abacus Data asked Canadians in provinces where the federal carbon tax is applied whether they had received a payment from the federal government in the past week. Of the 49 per cent who said yes, the vast majority correctly identified it as a rebate connected to the carbon tax. But that still left 51 per cent who said they hadn’t received a rebate.
Abacus Data sets its sights on continued growth and team optimization with two recent hires and a big promotion for its longest serving team member.
“We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and insightful polling and market research firm,” said Chief Executive and Chairman David Coletto. “We are deeply honoured to count some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and unions amongst our clients.”
“Abacus Data is powered by an ethos of enlightened hospitality,” said Coletto, “And we are thrilled to welcome Christine Serbu as a Senior Consultant and Rachel Luczon as a Field Specialist & Analyst to help us continue to deliver on that promise and provide current and prospective clients with best-in-class service.”
Christine is an accomplished and well-rounded market research professional with over 10 years’ experience working directly with clients in the public, private, and not-for-profit sectors. Christine is a proven project manager with sharp eyes, a critical mind, and a penchant for storytelling. Prior to joining Abacus, Christine refined her skills working with some of the largest market research firms in Canada.
“I’m thrilled to be joining Abacus and supporting their expansion across Canada. The team shares the same core values I do – work excellence, customer focus, and integrity – which made joining a no-brainer,“ said Serbu. “I’m excited to see what the future brings.”
Christine specializes in quantitative research and strives for excellence in every project – big or small. “Christine is known for her dedication to customer service, unyielding quest for improvement, and enthusiasm for creating order out of chaos,” said Abacus Data President, Ihor Korbabicz. “These qualities, along with her ample experience, make her the perfect fit for our team and will help us serve new markets and industries.”
Based in Edmonton, Christine is well-poised to service and expand the business in Western Canada.
Abacus Data is also pleased to formally welcome Rachel Luczon as a Field Specialist and Analyst working out of the Toronto office. Rachel has a background in neuroscience and psychology combined with ample experience conducting behavioural science research, examining the factors that influence decision-making.
“We have seen a marked uptick in earned media coverage for our polling releases in recent months and are delighted that our work is providing meaningful insight into how Canadians are thinking, feeling, and behaving in this uncertain time,” said Coletto. “In conjunction with our regular contributions to the national conversation as the official pollster of the Toronto Star, this coverage is helping us reach new audiences and connect with new clients. We need agile, obsessively curious, detail-oriented research professionals like Christine and Rachel to remain uncompromising in our commitment to excellence.”
“Joining the dynamic team at Abacus Data was an easy decision! With my passion for producing high-quality data, joining Abacus and supporting its mission to deliver accurate and impactful insights to clients and Canadians just made sense,” said Luczon. “I am excited to embark on this journey with a team that shares my commitment to excellence and a relentless pursuit of understanding the ever-evolving opinion landscape.”
Rachel will expand our capacity to field surveys and analysis, furthering our commitment to provide clients with actionable insights on time and on budget.
Further to new additions Christine and Rachel, Abacus Data’s longest serving team member, Jonathan Nadeau has been promoted to Senior Advisor to the CEO and Director, Special Projects. Since joining Abacus in 2011, Jonathan has been a key player in driving the success and continued evolution of the company.
“From humble beginnings as an intern to now serving as Senior Advisor to the CEO and Director, Special Projects, my journey with Abacus Data has been nothing short of transformative, said Jonathan Nadeau. “I look forward to working alongside my long-time friend, boss, and mentor, David Coletto, to drive even greater success for Abacus Data in the years ahead.”
Beginning his career at Abacus shortly after its inception, Jonathan’s journey has been marked by his singular dedication and adaptability. In his new capacity, Jonathan will work hand-in-glove with the CEO to action new ideas, develop original products and services to expand access and simplify the client journey.
“I am delighted to be able to collaborate more closely with Jonathan,” said Chief Executive and Chairman David Coletto. “Jon understands our work better than anyone and continues to bring creative solutions to complex problems.”
Celebrating its 14th anniversary this year, Abacus Data quickly established itself as a leader in public opinion and market research. Working with some of North America’s leading brands, associations, and public sector organizations, Abacus Data helps clients make better decisions through high-quality data, insights, and strategic advice.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
What to make of the result from the Durham byelection? David Coletto of Abacus Data and Shachi Kurl of the Angus Reid Institute weigh in on CTV’s Question Period
From February 29 to March 6, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with some updated data comparing perceptions of the Trudeau government’s performance in areas such as housing, healthcare, managing the economy, and managing government finances.
Conservatives lead by 18 over the Liberals. It’s been 658 straight days that the Conservatives have led the Liberals in Abacus Data polling.
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 24%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 34% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives are up 1, the Liberals are unchanged, and the NDP is down 1. Since the beginning of the year, we have seen stability in vote intentions with the Conservatives consistently in the low 40s and the Liberals stuck in the low to mid 20s.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in the Prairies, lead by 22 in BC, and 13 in Ontario. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are 15-points ahead of the Liberals while in Quebec, the BQ leads by 8 over the Liberals with the Conservatives just two points back and statistically tied with the Liberals for second.
If we isolate British Columbia, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada only, we find the Conservatives holding at 43%, the Liberals up 1 to 27%.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead among all age groups with the Liberal vote share correlated with age. The Liberal vote share rises as the age of the respondent increases. The opposite is true for the NDP. For a deeper analysis of how millennials have shifted their preferences over the past 8 years, see my substack here. And tune into (and subscribe!) Eric Grenier’s podcast later this week as we deep dive Canadian polling trends and breakouts by demographic, regional, and political groups.
The Conservatives continue to capture a larger share of the vote among both men and women. Liberal vote share is the same among men and women while the NDP does 9-points better among women than it does among men. For a deep dive on the differences between men and women, check out this analysis by my colleague Oksana Kishchuk released on Friday.
When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 50% say they are open to voting Conservative (down 2 since earlier this month) while, 39% are open to voting NDP (down 1), and 39% are open to voting Liberal (unchanged) and the lowest we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.
We continue to measure voter motivation by political party.
We find that Conservative supporters are more likely to say they would vote than Liberal or NDP supporters. Enthusiasm for voting NDP is down 5 from last month while Liberal enthusiasim is up slightly by 3 points.
What else are Canadians thinking?
The mood of the country hasn’t changed since earlier this month and has been fairly consistent since the start of the year. Today, only 1 in 4 think Canada is headed in the right direction and only 15% feel optimistic about the direction of the world as a whole. This mood continues to be very sour.
The federal government’s approval rating is improved slightly from last month at 26%, up 2. 58% disapprove of the job performance of the federal govenrment led by Justin Trudeau, down a single point and within the margin of error.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau have improved marginally. 58% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 25% have a positive view for a net score of -33.
In contrast, impressions of Pierre Poilievre are also largely unchanged with 38% viewing him positively and 34% negatively for a net score of +4. Any attempts by the Liberals to shift perceptions about Poilievre have yet to bare any fruit.
Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are also largely unchanged. Today 35% have a negative impression compared with 33% who have a positive one for a net score of -2.
15% of Canadian adults believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, unchanged from last month while those who think it’s time for a change and feel there’s an acceptable alternative is back up to 54%, the high point in our tracking. We will continue to monitor this perception as it may be a leading indicator for vote intention.
The view that the Conservatives will win the next election continues to grow. Today, 47% think the Conservatives will win the next election (up 2 since last wave) and up 8 points since October 2023. 19% think the Liberals will win, while 8% think the NDP will win. 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure or say another party will win.
Finally, in this survey we reasked questions we asked in March 2023 evaluating how Canadians feel about the Trudeau government’s performance in some specific policy areas.
The results reveal several things.
First, negative impressions are up right across the board, increasing from 6 to 9 points. This reflects the movement we’ve seen in government approval since last spring.
Areas where the Trudeau government get relatively better evaluations are in its handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (51% positive or acceptable), dealing with the provinces (44% positive or acceptable) and running an ethical government (40% positive or acceptable).
But it gets low scores for its handling of housing (23%), dealing with the rising cost of living (26%), and managing government finances (33%). When it comes to managing the economy, 35% think the federal government has done a good or acceptable job while 61% describe it as negative with an 8-point rise in negative impressions.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Public opinion about Canadians politics is firmly in a new normal with an unpopular Prime Minister, a poor performing federal government, and a relatively popular leader of the opposition. Since last spring, perceptions of the government’s performance in several policy areas have all become markedly negative – especially in areas where the government has tried to put a great focus including housing, inflation, and the economy.
It really does feel like the Trudeau government is pushing against a thick, tall wall where nothing it does is seen positively by its detractors. Whether it is closed minds or distraction, Canadians are not being persuaded that Mr. Trudeau or his government are effectively managing the anxieties in their life. This might change if micro- and macro-economic conditions improve, but as my colleague Eddie Sheppard will report later this week, expectations for the rest of 2024 are not great. Low expectations are easier to meet and exceed, but it means that the public remains deeply skeptical, anxious, and in the Prime Minister’s own words, “grumpy”.”
Looking to conduct polling or market research in 2024? Have budget left to spend before the end of March? Send Yvonne an email to connect with the Abacus Data team today!
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 28 to March 6,, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.