Softening support for the government as the House rises
June 27, 2022
We just completed a national survey of 3,026 Canadian adults from June 17 to 23, 2022.
NATIONAL MOOD SLIDES FOUR POINTS
The number of people who say Canada is heading in the right direction, is at 35%, down 4 points from mid-April, and one of the weaker results we have seen in the last year and a half.
FEDERAL APPROVAL TREND DOWN
38% approve of the performance of the federal government, which is down 2 points from our last measurement and down four since April 2022. With 45% disapproval, this -7 net score is among the weaker readings we have found in the last year.
CURRENT FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION – CONSERVATIVES AHEAD BY 4
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win and secure 30% of the vote, 2 points less than their last election result and – points back of the Conservatives at 34%. Support for the NDP is at 18% (down 3), the People’s Party 5%, the Green Party 4% and the BQ 35% in Quebec.
• In BC we see a continuing three-way battle, with the Conservatives slightly ahead.
• The Conservatives continue to hold wide leads in the Prairies.
• The Liberals have fallen 3-points behind the Conservatives in Ontario, and 7-points behind the BQ in Quebec while holding a massive 23-point lead in Atlantic Canada.
Also of note, for the first time in our tracking since the last election, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals (even if only marginally) among those aged 18 to 44. This demographic was critical to the Liberal win in 2021. Since the beginning of 2022, the Conservatives are up 6-points while the Liberals are down 2 among this group.
IMPRESSIONS OF LEADERS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 35% and finds negative impressions among 46%, for a net score of -11.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 37% and finds negative impressions among 29%, for a net score of +8. Since early this month, Mr. Singh’s positives are down 5 points and lower than any point since about this time last year.
Candace Bergen enjoys a positive impression among 22% and finds negative impressions among 32% for a net -10.
Pierre Poilievre enjoys a positive impression among 20% and finds negative impressions among 28% for a net -8. From March, Mr. Poilievre’s negatives have risen six points, while his positives have remained stable. Among Conservative supporters, Mr. Poilievre has a net +31, an improvement since early this month.
UPSHOT
According to Bruce Anderson: “In the coming weeks, we’ll do a deeper look at how voters are evaluating the government, the Prime Minister, and the alternatives. As the House rises, these results will be modest confidence builders for Conservatives and flashing light for the Liberals that there is some restiveness, in all likelihood a function of the cost of living anxieties and frustrations that the “post-pandemic normal”, doesn’t feel completely post-pandemic, or as completely normal as they would like or had hoped.”
According to David Coletto: “Our latest reading of public opinion about Canadian politics shows that impressions of the Prime Minister and his government’s performance on trending downward. The public mood is turning negative and this is impacting not just vote intentions but also evaluations of the government’s performance. Whether this becomes a summer of discontent remains to be seen but the conditions of high inflation, rising interest rates, and a possible recession mean trouble is brewing for the Liberals.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,026 Canadian adults from June 17 to 23, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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