By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto
We just completed a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults from July 11 to 17, 2022.
NATIONAL MOOD SLIDES FOUR POINTS IN A MONTH
The number of people who say Canada is heading in the right direction continues its downward trajectory with 33% feeling positively (down 2 since June and down 5 since May). For context, last year at this time (before the election), 46% felt Canada was headed in the right direction. Half feel things are off on the wrong track.
FEDERAL DISAPPROVAL TRENDING UP
38% approve of the performance of the federal government, unchanged from last month with 46% disapproving for a net score of -8. The last time more approved than disapproved of the federal government was at the start of the year (+4).
CURRENT FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION – CONSERVATIVES AHEAD BY 2
If an election were held now, the Liberals would win and secure 31% of the vote, 1 point less than their last election result and 2 points back of the Conservatives at 33%. Support for the NDP is at 19% (up 1), the People’s Party 4%, the Green Party 4% and the BQ 35% in Quebec.
• In BC we see a continuing three-way battle, with the three main parties statistically tied.
• The Conservatives continue to hold wide leads in the Prairies.
• The Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied in Ontario (35% to 36%) with the NDP in third at 20%.
• In Quebec, we have the BQ and Liberals statistically tied with the BQ at 35% and the LPC at 32%.
• The Liberals are well ahead in Atlantic Canada.
IMPRESSIONS OF LEADERS
Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 34% and finds negative impressions among 47%, for a net score of -13.
Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 39% and finds negative impressions among 27%, for a net score of +12.
Candace Bergen enjoys a positive impression among 20% and finds negative impressions among 28% for a net -8.
THE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP ELECTION
Over the past few months, views of Mr. Poilievre have diverged. While his net score among Conservative supporters has increased, from +31 to +47 in a month, views among non-Conservative Party supporters have become more negative with his net score going from -11 to -24.
We have also seen an improvement in Jean Charest’s personal numbers.
Among CPC supporters, his net score has improved from -3 to +19, thanks to a 13-point increase in those having a positive impression of him. Among non-CPC supporters, his net score improved going from -8 to -2.
When we ask people which candidate best represents their values and ideas about what the country needs, Mr. Charest leads Mr. Poilievre by 8 points (37% to 29%), with Ms. Lewis in third at 14%.
Among Conservative supporters, the result is quite different. Mr. Poilievre leads Mr. Charest by 27-points (54% to 27%) with Ms. Lewis well back at 9%.
Since June and with Mr. Brown’s exit from the race, preferences for Mr. Poilievre increased 13-points (from 41% to 54%) while Mr. Charest is up 6-points.
After our normal vote intention question, we asked respondents how they would vote if Mr. Poilievre or Mr. Charest was Conservative Leader and Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Singh was LPC and NDP leaders respectively.
With Mr. Poilievre as Conservative leader, 31% would vote Liberal (the same as our standard question), 29% would vote Conservative (down 4), 21% NDP and 5% People’s Party.
With Mr. Charest as leader, 28% would vote Liberal (down 3), 25% Conservative (down 8), and 22% NDP (up 3). 11% say they would vote People’s Party if Mr. Charest was Conservative leader, 7-points higher than when we ask the standard vote intention question.
This suggests that while Mr. Poilievre may lose some current CPC support, Mr. Charest would lose more (even if he’s able to attract some LPC supporters), with most going to the People’s Party.
According to Bruce Anderson: “Canadians are not following politics closely right now, instead enjoying a summer with more flexibility to travel and mingle and relax. The economic, supply chain, air travel and other pressures facing the government are showing up in the numbers, but in a relatively muted form. Meanwhile Conservatives seem more drawn to Mr. Poilievre this month, while other voters are feeling more alienated by his approach, highlighting the importance of the choice that the Conservative Party seems ready to make.”
According to David Coletto: “Despite every increasing inflation, rising interest rates, and a souring public mood, political opinions and intentions remain relatively stable. The Liberals and Conservatives are holding onto much of the support from last year’s election. Although views of Mr. Trudeau have become more negative, views of Mr. Poilievre have become more polarized. He’s well-liked by Conservative supporters but increasingly unpopular among everyone else. These two trends lead us to the stalemate that has gripped Canadian politics for many years now and is unlikely to change as long as both primary candidates for Prime Minister are as polarizing as Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Poilievre.”
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The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from July 11 to 17, 2022. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6% 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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