Abacus Data Poll: Nova Scotia PCs lead by 19: Why Tim Houston is well positioned to be re-elected.

But first, a message from Abacus Data founder and CEO, David Coletto:

We love elections at Abacus Data. Exploring what people think and feel and how that impacts their behaviours at work, as consumers, and as citizens is at the core of what we do.

And so, as the Nova Scotia provincial election nears the end of its first week, we are excited to share results of our first deep dive into how Nova Scotians are feeling about their political choices and where we see things as the campaign begins.

Before we share some insights on the Nova Scotia election, we have some big news to share. Abacus Data is officially and formally expanding into Atlantic Canada and opening an office in Halifax.

Kelly Bennett has joined our team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada lead and will be serving clients with the same curious, thoughtful, and hospitality-inspired approach that has made Abacus the most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm in Canada.

To learn more about our expansion and investment in Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada, click here.

Now to the survey results.

The results indicate that the Nova Scotia PC Party and Premier Tim Houston are in a strong position as the campaign begins to be re-elected.

In this report, we explore the reasons for this conclusion by looking at several key indicators we will track throughout the election.

PCs LEAD BY 19 OVER NS NDP. NDP AND LIBERALS STATISTICALLY TIED FOR SECOND.

If the election was held today, the PCs would very likely win another majority government. Overall, among all committed eligible voters in our survey, the PCs have 45% of the vote with the NS NDP at 26% and the NS Liberals at 25%. The Greens have 4% of the vote. 25% of eligible voters are currently undecided.

Regionally, the PCs and NDP are statiscally tied in Halifax (HRM) while the PCs are well ahead in other communities across the province. The PCs also lead in urban and rural communities, although their lead in rural Nova Scotia is substantially larger (30 points vs. 12 points).

Demographically, the PCs lead by a wide margin among those aged 45 and over, lead by a smaller margin among those aged 30 to 44, and are statistically tied with the NDP among those aged 18 to 29.

The PCs also lead among men and women with almost an equal share of the vote across both genders.

The Issues

In terms of issues, healthcare, affordability, and housing are the top three issues that Nova Scotians say will most impact their vote. Reducing taxes is also high up on the list.

When we compare top issues by current party supporters, we see some differences. PC supporters are more likely to rate reducing taxes as a top issue as well as defending Nova Scotia’s interests in Ottawa. Liberal supporters are more likely to rate affordability and managing population growth while NDP supporters are more likely to rate housing and homelessness.

That being the top two issues regardless of party are fixing healthcare and making life more affordable.

The Leaders

When it comes to the leaders, most Nova Scotians have a pretty good idea who Tim Houston is. 74% say they have a very or pretty good idea who he is and what he stands for. In contrast, only 47% feel the same way about Liberal Leader Zach Churchill and 37% have a good sense of NDP LEader Claudia Chender. The campaign could matter if the opposition leaders can better introduce themselves to Nova Scotians. If they can, views may also change if as people get to know Churchill and Chender, they come to like them.

When we ask Nova Scotians their impressions of the party leaders, Premier Houston is view positively by 38% and negatively by 34% for a net score of +4. In comparison, Liberal Leader Zach Churchill is +11 and NDP Leader Claudia Chender is +21. But many people in Nova Scotia either don’t know the opposition leaders well or have a neutral view of them.

For context, we also find that neither Justin Trudeau nor Pierre Poilievre are particularly well liked in Nova Scotia. The Prime Minister’s net favourable is -33 while Pierre Poilievre’s is -16.

The Early Election Call

We also asked Nova Scotians how they feel about the early election call. The Premier called the election despite the fixed election date law his government passed set the next election to be in July 2025.

Overall, few Nova Scotians said they are unhappy or angry about the early call. 27% say they are unhappy (15%) or angry (12%) while a slightly larger proportion say they are thrilled or happy (29%). The rest, 45%, are indifferent.

WHAT ELSE EXPLAINS THE NOVA SCOTIA PC’S DOMINANT POSITION?

#1 – The desire for change isn’t high or intensive enough to seriously challenge the PCs.

During the first week of the campaign, the desire for change isn’t sufficient to be a serious liability for the incumbent PCs. Today, 50% definitely want to see a change in government while 20% definitely want to see the PC government re-elected. Everyone else is in the middle – either wanting change or keeping the government in power – but not caring too much about the outcome.

To help set the context for this, we compare the results in Nova Scotia with some previous elections we have comparable data for. When we look at the elections in which the incumbents were re-elected – BC 2024, Ontario 2022, Federal 2021, the desire for change is comparable.

For the elections where incumbents were defeated – Ontario 2018 or Federal 2015, the desire for change was much higher.

How these perceptions can change over the campaign, but if the desire for change holds, then Houston and the PCs are in a solid position for re-election.

Perhaps most important,  “change voters” – those who definitely want change – are split almost evenly between the NDP and Liberal Party in terms of vote intention.

One of two things have to happen if a PC win is going to be threatened:

(1) Change voters need to consolidate around either the Liberals or NDP. Right now neither is winning the “change” primary, or

(2) More voters need to intensely want a change in government.

#2 – The PCs lead or are ahead or competitive on all four of the top issues.

As mentioned earlier, fixing healthcare, affordability, housing, and taxes are the top four most salient issues at the moment.

When those who care about each issue are asked which party is best able to handle the issue, the PCs are ahead or competitive for all four.

The PCs lead by 14 on fixing healthcare (a top issue for 7 in 10 Nova Scotians), they lead by 10 on affordability, and by 16 on reducing taxes. The NDP and PCs are statistically tied on improving housing and reducing homelessness.

It is worth noting that a sizeable portion of Nova Scotians are unsure which party is best able to manage these issues and the campaign could influence this perceptions. We will track this over the campaign.

Specifically around micro-economic percpetions, the environment isn’t threatening to the incumbent as it might be in other jurisdictions. For example, although 61% of Nova Scotians say they are falling behind due to the cost of living, only 41% of Nova Scotias believe that Tim Houston’s PC government has made the cost of living in Nova Scotia higher than it would otherwise be. 59% think it hasn’t – and that’s a win when affordability is one of the top issues on voters minds.

#3 – Tim Houston’s personal image is relatively positive (to a lot of other incumbents) and he leads on “Best Premier” by a wide margin.

Beyond the desire for change and issue ownership, Tim Houston’s personal image remains relatively strong.

More people have a positive view of the PC leader than any of his opponents and Mr. Houston’s are relatively low.

Beyond their images, when asked which leader would make the best Premier, Tim Houston is 15-points ahead of both Claudia Chender and Zach Churchill.

#4 – The PC vote is firmer and more motivated than that of the Liberals or NDP.

Another advantage held by the PCs and Tim Houstin at the moment is that PC voters are more motivated to vote. Among the 50% of the electorate who tell us that they are “extremely motivated” to vote, the PCs have almost a 30-point advantage – 52% to 24% for the NDP and 21% for the Liberals. This initial turnout advantage boosts the PC vote share by 7 points.

Looking at it another way, 65% of PC voters say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with 52% for NDP supporters, and 49% for NDP supporters.

Not only is the PC vote more motivated as the campaign starts, but PC voters appear to be firmer. 68% of PC supporters say they will not change their mind. They already know they are voting PC. 44% of Liberal voters and 26% of NDP voters responded the same way.

There is, however, some risk in these numbers for the PCs though. There appears to be some opportunity for one of the two main opposition parties to consolidate the “change” vote and given that so many Liberal and NDP voters appear open to changing their mind, that could happen.

On the flip side, some of those same NDP or Liberal voters could also be persuaded to vote PC. 1 in 4 Liberal supporters and 1 in 5 NDP supporters say their second choice is the PCs so enough consolidation may not be possible as long as the PCs hold the level of support they have.

UPSHOT

According to Kelly Bennett: “It appears that Nova Scotians have accepted the rationale for a snap election this fall as few tell us they are unhappy with the Premier’s decision.

The audience wants to hear how the parties will make life more affordable and fix the healthcare system. Tim Houston and the PCs have the advantage today on both of those.

In what looks like a fight for second, Claudia Chender and Zach Churchill have just three weeks left to introduce themselves to much of Nova Scotia, define themselves and their positions all while making the case that Tim Houston doesn’t deserve another term. That’s a tall order.

Incumbents everywhere are facing strong headwinds, but our first survey suggests that Tim Houston and the PCs may find a relatively easier way to navigate them safely to another term.”

According to David Coletto: “As the first week of the campaign ends, Tim Houston and the PCs are in the driver’s seat. The PCs have a wide lead in vote intention, have the most popular leader, and own or are competitive on the top issues on voters’ minds.

If nothing changes in the opinion environment between now and late November, the PCs should win another majority.

But the data also shows a path forward for either the NDP or the Liberals. Neither has a clear advantage among those people who deeply want to see the PCs and Tim Houston replaced. Chender and Churchill still need to define themselves and their positions as they lead their first campaigns. Strong performances in the debates or a mistake by the PCs could create an opportunity to consolidate the anti-PC/pro-change forces.

However, our survey also suggests that about half of Liberal supporters would not consider voting NDP and half of NDP supporters would not consider voting Liberal. This means that the Liberals and NDP can’t count on each others voters to easily consolidate. In fact, many Liberal and NDP supporters say their second choice would be the PCs.

Perhaps the biggest hurdle the opposition parties have to face is the widespread expectation that the Tories are going to win. 48% think the PCs will win compared to 18% for the Liberals and only 6% for the NDP.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 600 eligible voters in Nova Scotia from October 28 to 31, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1% 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Nova Scotia’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data expands into Halifax as Kelly Bennett joins the team as Vice President & Atlantic Canada Lead

We are excited to announce that Abacus Data is expanding into Atlantic Canada and adding a Bluenoser to the team, Kelly Bennett.

Kelly is joining our team as Vice President & Atlantic Lead, bringing almost fifteen years of experience living and working in Atlantic Canada to our company. 

Before joining us, Kelly led the Government of Nova Scotia’s public opinion research program. She also worked as provincial spokesperson and communications advisor, serving under three Premiers.

Abacus Data’s expansion into Atlantic Canada brings us back to our roots and increases our national footprint. Little known fact: Abacus started in New Brunswick! The company was registered in New Brunswick in 2009.

In case you haven’t heard… Atlantic Canada is growing at a remarkable rate. Thousands of new people are moving to Halifax, Moncton and Charlottetown, with early pandemic trends not letting up. In Sydney, Fredericton and St. John’s, there are also signs of positive growth everywhere you look.

“I love what’s happening in Atlantic Canada,” says David Coletto, Chair and CEO of Abacus Data. “When I visit the region, there’s an energy that I don’t feel in many other places. With this growth comes new opportunities which is why I’m excited to grow and invest in the region, establish a permanent footprint, and recruit someone with as much experience and talent as Kelly Bennett.”

Abacus Data will be offering the quality, depth, and national experience our team has to existing and new clients in Atlantic Canada. Our approach is rooted in a hospitality mindset with a curiosity and fiercely independent approach that has made us the most influential, sought-after, and impactful polling and market research company in Canada.

Clients in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador can expect the depth, perspective, and approach that our clients across Canada and North America have come to count on.

We are proud to work with clients like Google, WestJet, the Government of Canada, the Government of Nova Scotia, Scouts Canada, HOOPP (Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan), the Canadian Medical Association, the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, Dairy Farmers of Canada, the Canadian Real Estate Association, Mattamy Homes, the National Union of Public and General Employees, BC Council of Forest Industries, the Saskatchewan Urban Municipalities Association, the Construction Association of Nova Scotia, and Food, Health, and Consumer Products of Canada.

“What David has built with Abacus Data is very special,” says Kelly Bennett, Vice President & Atlantic Lead. “David and his team work harder and faster than everybody else. They ask the right questions. They are deeply curious. They are future oriented. They are optimistic. And when the project is done, you’ll want to spend more time with them. Trust me, I did!”

In the weeks and months ahead, we look forward to showing Atlantic Canadians exactly who we are and how we can help.

Starting today, we are thrilled to be releasing insights from our first poll related to the provincial election in Nova Scotia. Expect to see thoughtful and in-depth analysis about what Nova Scotians are thinking and feeling as they make a big decision on November 26 about who will lead their province into the future.

The results from our first Nova Scotia election poll are available here.

And whether you’re reading this message in Atlantic Canada or anywhere else in the country, please reach out to us for more information and to explore how we can leverage our data and insights to help you make better decisions.

Contact information:

Kelly Bennett, Vice President & Atlantic Lead
kelly@abacusdata.ca

David Coletto, founder, Chair & CEO
david@abacusdata.ca

Our Atlantic Canadian headquarters will be located at:

Abacus Data Inc.
1741 Lower Water Street, Suite 216
Halifax, NS B3J 0J2


BlogNews / Media

Public Affairs, Advocacy, and Public Policy Polling: How Abacus Data Empowers Your Strategy

In today’s rapidly shifting political environment, understanding public opinion is no longer a “nice-to-have”—it’s an absolute necessity.

Governments and decision makers don’t just want to know how an idea or policy proposal will help you.

They need to see that consumers and workers believe it will help them.

Whether you’re engaging stakeholders, shaping policy, or advocating on behalf of your organization’s mission, reliable and timely data can provide the critical edge you need. At Abacus Data, we specialize in public affairs, advocacy, and public policy polling designed to deliver the insights that help you move from information to action. Our work is deeply rooted in a proven, research-based approach that reveals what Canadians think, what they need, and what it takes to shape their opinions into meaningful outcomes at the federal, provincial, and municipal levels.

What We Do: Data-Driven Research to Fuel Your Advocacy and Public Affairs Goals

Abacus Data provides customized public opinion research solutions to support advocacy campaigns, government relations strategies, and public affairs initiatives. Whether your goal is to influence policy, refine messaging, or gauge the impact of your communications, our team will craft a research program tailored to your unique needs.

We are fiercely independent and non-partisan. We partner with independent GR firms, associations, corporations, and trade unions.

Central to our methodology is the “three streams” model, which frames our approach to public affairs polling:

Problem Recognition: The public must first recognize that a problem or issue exists. Without broad awareness, policy change or advocacy efforts rarely gain traction.

Solution Viability: The public must believe that there are viable solutions to this problem—new policies, organizational changes, or resource allocations that can genuinely make a difference.

Political Will and Action: Ultimately, the public must be willing to act—directly or indirectly—to support the change you’re advocating. This could mean backing a particular policy option, pressuring decision-makers, or lending moral support to a campaign.

By considering these three critical streams together, we can identify exactly where public opinion stands and how best to move it toward a desired outcome. This integrated approach ensures that our polling doesn’t just measure sentiment—it guides strategic decision-making. Our research gives you clarity on the public’s priorities, insights into what resonates with key audiences, and a concrete roadmap to build momentum and drive policy change.

How We Do It: A Tailored, Expert-Led Research Process

Our research process begins by getting to know you—your organization, your mission, your goals, and the unique policy landscape you operate within. We start each project with a series of consultations to understand the context: the political environment, the stakeholders you need to influence, and the core opportunities or risks at hand.

Discovery and Questionnaire Design:
Based on these conversations, we design a customized polling instrument. The questionnaire is carefully crafted to capture not only top-of-mind public concerns and opinions but also the nuance needed to inform policy development or advocacy messaging. We understand that every situation is different, and our surveys reflect your particular strategic objectives—whether that’s identifying which policy proposals have the greatest public support or pinpointing which messages resonate best with target audiences. But in all cases – we do this work and will never expect you to write the questions.

Fielding the Survey and Gathering Data:
Next, we tap into our robust panel and data collection infrastructure to field the survey. We do this all in-house so we control the quality from beginning to end. No outsourcing. No cookie-cutter approach. We utilize rigorous sampling and weighting techniques to ensure our results are both representative and reliable, giving you confidence that the insights reflect the true state of public opinion. Our polling has been some of the most accurate in Canada.

Analysis and Reporting:
Once the data is collected, our team of experts digs deep. We examine trends, segment results by key demographic, geographic, or pyschographic factors, and layer in context from the broader political, social, and economic environment. The final report you receive isn’t just a stack of numbers. It’s a thoughtful, focused analysis centered on what matters most to your organization. We highlight key findings, strategic implications, and actionable recommendations.

Why We Are the Best: Expertise, Insight, and a Proven Track Record

Abacus Data is Canada’s most sought-after public affairs research team for a reason. We we release a poll “Ottawa listens”.

Our approach is spearheaded by Dr. David Coletto, one of Canada’s leading public opinion researchers, and is supported by a senior team of experts with deep academic and practical credentials. Among our team, you’ll find three senior researchers who hold PhDs and two who have Masters degrees in Political Management.

This depth of expertise means you’re not just getting raw data—you’re benefiting from a nuanced understanding of Canada’s evolving political, social, economic, and geopolitical context. Our researchers know what questions to ask, how to interpret the answers, and how to link these insights to the strategic decisions you face.

We pride ourselves on finding the unmet needs in public discourse and policy debate. Rather than recycling conventional wisdom, we uncover new angles and emerging trends that can set you ahead of the competition. Our track record of delivering high-quality, high-impact research has made us trusted partners to governments, organizations, industry associations, and advocacy groups across Canada.

What to Do With the Research: Turning Insights into Action

Information without application is a missed opportunity. Abacus Data goes beyond delivering a report—we help you translate insights into tangible steps that drive real change.

Inform Your Strategic Direction:
Understand what key audiences think, anticipate political reactions, and identify the best way to frame your ideas. Our polling results can help you refine internal strategies, ensuring your organization is united from the boardroom to the grassroots level.

Build Internal Consensus:
Use our research to unite stakeholders—your members, senior leaders, and board of directors—around a common narrative. With clear evidence and data-driven insights, it becomes easier to bring everyone on the same page, making strategy execution more efficient and impactful.

Optimize Your Advocacy Tactics:
Armed with a nuanced understanding of public sentiment, you can tailor messaging, choose the right communication channels, and engage the most influential stakeholders. Whether you’re sharing findings directly with government decision-makers or releasing data to the public, our insights guide you to the strongest advocacy strategies.

Amplify Your Reach Through Our Network:
When appropriate, we can share your findings through our network of 50,000 followers and our popular weekly newsletter, Worth a Look, to help your message reach a wider audience. Additionally, Dr. David Coletto can bring the data to life by speaking at your conferences, conventions, annual meetings, or board sessions, ensuring that decision-makers fully grasp the significance of the insights.

Ready to Get Started?

Unlocking the full potential of public opinion polling for public affairs, advocacy, and public policy work is as simple as reaching out to our team.

Contact Yvonne Langen to set up a 15-minute initial consultation, and we’ll connect you with one of our senior researchers.

From there, we’ll identify your objectives, design a research plan tailored to your needs, and deliver the actionable insights required to achieve your goals.

Don’t leave your policy outcomes to chance. Trust the experts who combine academic rigor, deep political understanding, and real-world experience to help you shape the future. With Abacus Data’s public affairs polling services, you’ll be ready to engage decision-makers, influence the debate, and drive meaningful change—backed by evidence-based research you can trust.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian Politics

Tories have huge lead in economic trust—especially among young Canadians – The Logic

Today marks the first instalment in a partnership between The Logic and Abacus Data to poll Canadians on key economic issues as the federal political … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://thelogic.co/news/exclusive/canada-election-abacus-poll-economic-plan/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw2vnFnIS4HfBZhj3jji6M5r

The LogicUncategorized

Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives lead by 22 as surrounding impressions hold steady.

From October 17 to 22, 2024 Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition, we ask about our usual trackers. On Tuesday, we released data on how Canadians feel about Justin Trudeau’s future as Prime Minister and Liberal Leader.

Vote Intention: Conservatives remain well ahead, lead by 22 over the Liberals

If an election were held today, 44% of committed voters would vote Conservative, while 22% would vote for the Liberals, 18% for the NDP, and 5% for the Greens. The BQ has 38% of the vote in Quebec. Any changes are clearly within the margin of error of the survey.

Regionally, the Conservatives continue to lead across all regions and provinces except for in Quebec. The Conservatives lead by 23 in BC, by 49 points in Alberta, 25 points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, 18 points in Ontario, and by 24 points in Atlantic Canada. The BQ leads by 13 points in Quebec where the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level for improve advocacy and government relations.

Outside of Quebec, the Liberals and NDP are statistically tied well back of the Conservatives who have almost half of the vote share.

Demographically, the Conservatives continue to lead among all age groups and among both men and women.

The Conservative vote share is fairly consistent across all age groups – ranging from 42% to 46% while the Liberals have slightly more support among those aged 60+ than those under 60.

48% of men would vote Conservative compared with 40% of women. Liberal support is 5-points higher among women than it is among men while the NDP vote share is similar across both groups.

For the first time in our survey, we don’t find that the Conservatives gain a turnout boost when we factor in only those who are certain to vote. The Conservative lead is 21-points among those most motivated to vote.

The mood of the country has not changed. 25% feel the country is headed in the right direction while 63% feel it’s off on the wrong track.

The federal government’s approval rating has deteriorated slightly.

Today, 24% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government (down 2) while disapproval is down two points to 61%.

The government’s deteriorating approval numbers are also reflective in views of the Prime Minister which remain significantly more negative than positive.

Today, 23% (unchanged) have a positive view of the Prime Minister, while 60% (up 1) have a negative impression of the Prime Minister, for a net score of -37.

And we also find that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s negatives remain higher than they have historically been. Today 30% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 39% have a negative view for a net score of -9.

Over the previous three waves of research we noted an increase in those with a negative impression of Pierre Poilievre. This week, his negatives are down slightly (-2) while his positives are up 1. Mr. Poilievre’s net score is back into positive terrority at +4.

Those expecting the Conservatives to win the next election continues to grow.

Just over half of Canadians now believe the Conservatives are going to win the next federal election. Since january, expectations of a Conservative win have increased by 9-points. In contrast, 17% think the Liberals will win while 8% expect an NDP victory. 23% remain unsure.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The opinion environment appears to be increasingly locked in. Despite improving economic news, perceptions about the direction of the country are not improving. The government’s approval rating and impressions of the Prime Minister remains as bad as they have ever been.

Last wave, we highlighted an increase in negative impressions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. This week, that trend may have stopped as Mr. Poilievre’s net score is back in positive territory. This is expected given the amount of advertising the Conservatives are doing while their opponents spend almost nothing countering it. IN this environment, we shouldn’t expect Mr. Poilievre’s impression to change as the party reinforces positive messages while continuing to contrast with Mr. Trudeau, who most Canadians dislike.

Perhaps most concerning for the Liberals and NDP is the growing belief that the Conservatives are going to win the next election. 52% of Canadians now believe that outcome is likely to happen, up 9-points since the beginning of the year.

Despite growing belief that Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives are going to win, there hasn’t been an increase in concern or a shift in vote intentions. This suggests that right now, the prospect of a Conservative victory is not turning people away from the Conservatives.

As I’ve argued before, the Liberals won’t be able to get back into a competitive position with Mr. Trudeau as leader unless they change the way Canadians feel about him – even if views of Mr. Poilievre become more negative. The relationship between impressions of the Prime Minister and the likelihood of voting Liberal are too strong. We see no evidence that views of Mr. Trudeau have changed at all over the past year, despite everything the government has tried to do to change them.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Justin Trudeau leadership: MP says PM should get away from 'inner circle' | CTV News

Power Play: Will Clark run for Liberal leader? CEO of Abacus Data David Coletto says the PM has never been as unpopular as he. Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/get-away-from-your-inner-circle-liberal-mp-shocked-pm-didn-t-take-more-time-to-reflect-on-calls-to-resign-1.7087745&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw0HH-nz094yPuB68wR_Nk-E

Uncategorized

Will Crime and Public Safety Perceptions Influence Vote Choice in the Next Federal Election? 57% Say Crime Will Be a Major Factor in Their Decision.

From October 17 to 22, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,460 Canadian adults (18+) to examine their perceptions on crime and public safety. While issues like housing affordability and the cost of living dominate public discourse, the results show that crime and public safety remain key concerns for many Canadians, with most feeling that conditions are getting worse. This growing anxiety is shaping political behaviour, with many voters favouring parties that emphasize stricter enforcement policies.

Current Perspectives on Crime and Safety

The results reveal that 58% of Canadians feel the overall crime situation in the country is negative, with Conservative supporters (70%) more likely to express concern than Liberals (36%) or NDP supporters (46%). Among those who view crime negatively, 78% believe Canada is headed in the wrong direction, underscoring the role of safety in shaping broader public dissatisfaction.

Regional differences reveal distinct crime challenges across provinces. British Columbia sees high concern over drug-related offenses (59%) and organized crime (40%), while property crime is the leading issue in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (62%) and Alberta (47%), with break-ins also prominent (47% in SK/MB; 39% in AB). In Ontario, vehicle theft (44%) tops the list of concerns, while organized crime (54%) is the dominant issue in Quebec.

Conditions Across the Country Are Worsening

Most Canadians believe that conditions in their communities are worsening, with more than 1 in 2 believing that most types of crime are worsening in their area. This concern is highlighted for drug-related crimes, with 57% saying the situation is deteriorating, followed closely by vehicle theft (54%) and property crime (52%).

Canadians who perceive these issues as getting worse are significantly more likely to express an intention to vote for the Conservative Party in the next federal election. This suggests that negative experiences with local crime and public safety are driving voters toward the Conservatives or that Conservative-oriented voters are more sensitive to perceptions about rising crime in their community. Either way, there is a strong correlation. In contrast, those planning to vote for the Liberal Party are less likely to report worsening conditions in their area, indicating a divergence in how voters experience and interpret local issues.

Confidence in the Government to Address Crime and Public Safety

Currently, 45% of Canadians lack confidence in the federal government’s ability to address crime and public safety effectively. Among those with low confidence, 63% plan to vote for the Conservative Party in the next election, while only 9% intend to support the Liberals. Furthermore, 64% of those lacking confidence in the government’s handling of these issues believe the overall crime situation in Canada is negative, reflecting a close link between public dissatisfaction with public safety and political preferences.

What Should We Do to Address Crime and Public Safety?

When considering what actions, the federal government should prioritize to reduce and prevent crime, 56% of Canadians support implementing stricter laws and penalties for certain offenses. Additionally, 49% emphasize improving social services to address the root causes of crime, 48% advocate for stricter bail conditions for repeat offenders, and 47% call for enhanced mental health and addiction support services. These priorities reflect a strong public desire for a comprehensive approach – balancing tougher enforcement measures with investments in social and mental health support to tackle both immediate criminal behavior and its underlying causes.

Political preferences shape distinct approaches to crime prevention. Conservative supporters emphasize enforcement, favouring stricter laws and penalties (63%), tighter bail conditions for repeat offenders (54%), bail reforms to prevent pre-trial release for serious offenders (52%), and increased funding for law enforcement (47%). In contrast, Liberal and NDP supporters focus more on support services. Liberals prioritize expanding mental health and addiction services (58%), while NDP supporters emphasize addressing root causes through social services (65%), mental health supports (61%), and community-based crime prevention initiatives (51%). These priorities reflect a divide between enforcement-driven and support-based strategies reflected across the political spectrum.

Importance of Crime and Public Safety in Voter Intent

Currently, 37% of Canadians believe Pierre Poilievre has the most effective plan to address crime and public safety, compared to 15% for Justin Trudeau and 12% for Jagmeet Singh. 30% are unsure reflect a high degree of uncertainty and an opportunity for the parties to clarify their approach and plans going forward. This belief is even stronger among those who view crime and safety in Canada negatively, with 45% of them favouring Poilievre’s plan, while only 8% support Trudeau’s and 9% support Singh’s approach.

In the lead-up to the next election, 57% of Canadians say crime and safety issues will influence their voting decisions. For comparison sake, a recent Abacus poll found 38% say climate policy will be an important factor in their vote choice.

Among those who consider crime and public safety important heading into the next election, 48% plan to vote for Pierre Poilievre, compared to 23% for Justin Trudeau and 15% for Jagmeet Singh – a trend that holds even for those who see the issue as moderately important. The three main parties are effectively tied among Canadians who say crime and safety issues will not be an important issue determining their vote.

The Upshot

While crime may not be as salient an issue right now as affordability, housing, or healthcare capacity, it’s salience has risen over the past few years. The Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made crime a central party of their narrative, emphasizing consistently how they will “stop the crime”.

Perceptions of rising crime are influencing political preferences, with voters increasingly demanding action on public safety.

For voters, the divide between enforcement and prevention reflects distinct priorities shaping political preferences. Conservative-leaning voters tend to prioritize immediate safety solutions, supporting tougher penalties, stricter bail conditions, and more law enforcement funding to address crime swiftly. In contrast, Liberal and NDP voters emphasize socially focused approaches, favouring investments in social supports, mental health services, and initiatives that target the root causes of crime.

These differing priorities suggest that voters are not just looking for crime policies – they are seeking approaches that align with their broader values and expectations for public safety. But in an environment where the fear of crime is higher, the Conservative approach seems to be finding a wider audience now and is likely reinforcing the party’s support.

Crime is unlikely to be the ballot question for most voters, but it will likely shape the perceptions and evaluations voters make of their political choice when the next federal election comes.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,460 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.56 %, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

Abacus Data Poll: 57% of Canadians living in a Liberal held riding want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.

From October 17 to 22, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.

In this edition, we asked Canadians their opinion on the future of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Only 1 in 5 Canadians Want Prime Minister Trudeau to Run Again. Almost Half Want Him to Resign Immediately.

Two in three Canadians want the Prime Minister to immediately resign as Prime Minister (47%), or stay on as Prime Minister but not run in the next election (21%). Only 20% want him to run in the next eleciton and stay on as Prime Minister.

Among those currently supporting the Liberals, 9% want him to resign immediately while 26% want him to stay on as Prime Minister but not run in the next election. Just over half of current Liberal supporters want the Prime Minister to run in the next election and stay on as Prime Minister.

Among those who voted Liberal in 2021, but today do not support the party, 40% want the Prime Minister to resign immediately, 32% want him to stay on as Prime Minister but not run again while only 16% want him to stay on as Prime Minister and run again.

Among those currently open to voting Liberal (accessible Liberals), only 40% want the Prime Minister to fight the next election and stay on as Prime Minister.

What should your Liberal MP do?

In the survey, we asked respondents for the first three digits of their postal code to determine which federal electoral district they live in. We then identified which people live in a constitutency currently represented by a Liberal Member of Parliament. In total, 660 respondents in our sample living in ridings currently held by a Liberal MP.

These people were asked what they would prefer their Member of Parliament to do: defend Justin Trudeau and encourage him to run again or call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.

Among Canadians who living in a Liberal seat, 57% want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again while 24% want their MP to defend him and encourage him to run again. 19% are unsure.

Specifically, among those who voted Liberal in 2021 who live in a seat currently represented by a Liberal MP, 47% want their MP to defend Justin Trudeau and encourage him to run while 39% want their MP to call on Justin Trudeau to resign and not run again.

For context, current vote intention in these Liberal held ridings is:

Conservative 42%
Liberal 25%
NDP 18%
BQ 6%
Green 5%
PPC 3%

Our usual Canadian politics tracker will be released on Sunday.

What might happen to Liberal support if Justin Trudeau resigned as Liberal Leader?

It is difficult to predict how Canadians would react to Justin Trudeau stepping down as leader because voting behaviour will depend a lot on who might replace him.

But in this survey, we wanted to understand what would happen to the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool – that is the group of people who would consider or be open to voting Liberal.

Near the beginning of every survey, we asked people whether they would consider or not consider voting Liberal. In this survey, 38% indicate they would be open to voting Liberal. This is the current Liberal Party accessible voter pool and it has been consistently in the high 30s for the past few months.

When we ask people whether they would consider voting Liberal if Justin Trudeay stepped down as Liberal leader, 43% say they would consider voting Liberal, a 5-point increase.

11% of the electorate would not consider voting Liberal today, but say they would if Justin Trudeau was not leader. The Conservative Party has 57% of the support among this group followed by 27% for the NDP, 6% for the Greens, and 5% for the BQ.

The Liberal Party accessible voter pool increases by 5-points in Ontario, 6-points in British Columbia, and 13-points in Atlantic Canada. There is a 7-point increase among men, and 6-point increase among Millennials.

Among those who are currently accessible to the Liberals, 83% say they would remain accessible while 17% say they would no longer consider voting Liberal if Justin Trudeau stepped down.

Our usual Canadian politics tracker will be released, as usual, on Sunday. Subscribe to our newsletter to get the results to your inbox.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Just 1 in 5 Canadians want to see the Prime Minister stay on and run again. Almost half the country wants him to resign immediately while another 20% want him to stay on but not run again in the next election.

For Liberal MPs, there is widespread desire within their own constituencies to see them call for the Prime Minister to step down. Among those who voted Liberal in 2021 who currently live in Liberal ridings, 39% want their MP to call on the Prime Minister to step down.

Our data suggests that the party’s accessible voter pool would grow considerably from 38% to 43% if Trudeau stepped down. This wouldn’t solve the Liberal challenges but would at least open the door to more supporters.

Whether Prime Minister Trudeau ultimately decides to run again or not, the public believes he should not. Until there is a change in leadership, it is hard to see how the Liberals can become competitive again.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from October 17 to 22, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Focus Groups and Qualitative Research: Uncovering the Insights That Drive Advocacy and Public Policy Success

In today’s rapidly shifting political environment, understanding public opinion is no longer a “nice-to-have”—it’s an absolute necessity. Governments and decision makers don’t just want to know how an idea or policy proposal will help you. They need to see that consumers and workers believe it will help them.

Some of the most profound understandings emerge from real people having real conversations. At Abacus Data, we use focus groups and other qualitative research techniques to go beyond the numbers, illuminating the underlying beliefs, motivations, and unmet needs that shape public opinion. This depth of understanding can help you more effectively frame messages, design policies, and influence decision-makers in today’s complex and competitive environment.

What We Do: Turning Conversations Into Clarity

Abacus Data’s qualitative research offering—encompassing focus groups, in-depth interviews, online communities, and more—is designed to reveal the “why” behind the “what.” While quantitative surveys provide a crucial snapshot of public opinion, focus groups deliver something more nuanced and intimate: the context, reasoning, and emotional drivers behind those opinions.

In the context of public affairs, advocacy, and public policy, qualitative research can be a game-changer. From exploring how the public perceives a contentious policy proposal to identifying the narratives that resonate with key audiences, our focus groups connect the dots and uncover the real human stories at play.

We apply the same three-streams model that informs our polling work to guide our qualitative research approach:

Problem Recognition: Focus groups can reveal if the public understands the problem you are trying to address. Are people aware of the issue? Do they care about it? By hearing participants talk in their own words, we gain insights into what triggers concern and what might be missing in current messaging.

Solution Viability: Through moderated discussions, we explore whether participants believe in the feasibility and desirability of proposed solutions. Where a survey might tell you that 60% support a certain policy, a focus group can tell you why they support it—or why they might waver under pressure.

Political Will and Action: Ultimately, you need to know what will motivate people to act or influence decision-makers. Focus groups help you understand how to inspire advocacy, overcome skepticism, and build the sense of urgency needed for change.

By examining all three streams in detail, our qualitative work provides you with the insights necessary to craft messaging that resonates, identify unmet needs, and refine your advocacy or policy strategies to reflect real human perspectives.

How We Do It: Listening Deeply, Then Connecting the Dots

Our process begins where all good research does: with a thorough understanding of your organization, its goals, and the context in which you operate. We start by learning about your issues, your stakeholders, and the policy or advocacy landscape in which you work. Then we design a qualitative research plan tailored to your needs:

Participant Recruitment: We identify and recruit individuals who represent the audiences you need to understand—be it swing voters, key stakeholders, or members of specific communities. Our carefully screened participants bring authentic voices to the table, reflecting the real-world conditions and opinions you aim to influence.

Discussion Guide Design: Unlike a rigid survey, a focus group is guided by a strategic, flexible framework. We create a discussion guide that targets your key questions, while allowing room for participants to express unexpected thoughts. This ensures you get both the answers you anticipate and the surprises that may prove most valuable.

Moderation and Observation: Our seasoned moderators, trained to elicit honest, considered opinions, guide conversations to ensure participants feel comfortable and heard. We observe group dynamics, note which topics spark energy, and identify points of confusion or contention. Through this process, we gain a richer sense of what influences perception and how deeply held beliefs can shift.

Analysis and Reporting: After the sessions, our team of experts synthesizes the findings, highlighting core themes, emotional triggers, and the subtle distinctions in public understanding. We translate these observations into strategic recommendations—identifying the unmet needs, framing opportunities, and communication angles most likely to move the needle on your policy or advocacy goals.

Why We Are the Best: Expertise, Empathy, and a Clear Vision

Abacus Data is Canada’s most sought-after public affairs research team for a reason. We we release a poll “Ottawa listens”.

Abacus Data is led by Dr. David Coletto, one of Canada’s most trusted voices in public opinion research. Our qualitative team boasts a range of academic credentials, including PhDs and Masters degrees in Political Management, and decades of combined experience in the public affairs space. We understand the political, social, economic, and geopolitical context in which you operate because we live and breathe it every day.

But what truly sets us apart is our ability to blend rigorous methodology with empathetic inquiry. Our moderators know how to navigate sensitive topics, draw out hard-to-reach opinions, and foster an environment where participants feel safe sharing their authentic views. This expertise ensures that you don’t just get surface-level feedback—you get meaningful insights that illuminate the path forward.

What to Do With the Research: Translating Insights Into Action

Qualitative insights are more than just anecdotes—they are the building blocks of better strategies and more effective advocacy. Armed with the findings from our focus groups and qualitative research, you can:

Refine Messaging and Communications:
Develop messages and narratives that resonate with your target audiences, backed by a nuanced understanding of their priorities, fears, and values.

Build Internal Consensus:
Use recorded sessions, summaries, and key quotes to unite members, leaders, and boards around a common perspective. Hearing real Canadians voice their concerns in their own words can make the case for strategic shifts more compelling than any spreadsheet ever could.

Optimize Advocacy and Policy Strategies:
Identify gaps, fine-tune arguments, and discover new angles to strengthen your lobbying efforts, government relations work, and public outreach.

Leverage Our Platforms and Expertise:
Just as with our polling services, we can help publicize key insights through our 50,000-follower network and our weekly newsletter, Worth a Look. Host a presentation by Dr. David Coletto at your next conference, meeting, or board session to bring the findings to life and inspire action.

Ready to Get Started?

If you’re ready to elevate your advocacy, public affairs, or public policy initiatives through rich, people-centered insights, Abacus Data is here to help. Contact Yvonne Langen to set up a 15-minute initial consultation, and we’ll connect you with one of our senior researchers. From there, we’ll design a qualitative research program—complete with focus groups and other methodologies—that delivers the depth and clarity you need to navigate today’s complex landscape.

Don’t settle for a one-dimensional view of public opinion. With Abacus Data’s focus groups and qualitative services, you’ll gain the textured understanding required to turn public perspectives into strategic advantage. It’s time to step beyond the numbers and connect directly with the voices that can help shape the future of your advocacy and policy work.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

BlogCanadian Politics