Are men and women voting differently this election?

Last week comments from Pierre Poilievre about biological clocks sparked two conversations; one about the validity of these comments for young Canadians, and another about the messenger. Before the election kicked off officially the Conservatives had been performing well among both men and women. Here we dive into how things are playing out in the election campaign thus far. 

The results in this release are taken from four surveys conducted since the campaign began. A survey of n=1,487 18+ adults in Canada from March 17th to 20th (Wave 1), a survey of n=1,800 18+ adults in Canada March 24th to 26th (Wave 2), and a survey of n=1,763 18+ adults in Canada March 31st to April 3rd(Wave 3), and n=1,900 18+ adults in Canada April 3rd to 8th (Wave 4).

Vote Intention

Vote intention has shifted towards the Liberals for both men and women since the start of the campaign- it’s the starting points that are different.

At the start of the campaign, the Liberals and Conservatives were tied among women, 31% voting Liberal and 32% Conservative. As the campaign has moved along, support has consistently grown for the Liberals, 2-3 points per week. They now lead at 35%. This vote share has been pulled from the Conservatives, but also from the NDP who’ve dropped 4 points among women since the campaign began.

For men, the shift is similar, but with a different story. At the start of the campaign, the Conservatives led 7-points ahead of the Liberals. Today, they are essentially tied. Unlike women, the growth in Liberal vote has come almost entirely (and continues to come) from Conservatives.

Accessible Voters

Accessible voter pools also differ slightly.

For men, the accessible voter pool looks nearly identical for the Conservatives and Liberals. Its just over 50% for both parties- and both parties have secured about a third of men who say they are considering one party but not the other.

For women, there is a greater preference towards the Liberals. Among women the Liberals have a bigger accessible voter pool overall, but also a larger cohort who say they would vote for the Liberals, but not for the Conservatives.  

Leader Likeability

Since the start of the campaign, impressions of Pierre among women have remained stable but negative. Around half have a negative impression of the leader- a third have a positive impression. So far it seems the campaign has had little impact, from a gendered lens at least. On his own, the likeability of Pierre remains consistent.

However, when compared to Carney, these numbers don’t look as promising. At the start of the campaign, Carney was more likeable among women than Poilievre, but now there is also a larger, 10-point difference in positive impressions between the two leaders. 36% have a positive impression of Poilievre, and 46% a positive impression of Carney.

This isn’t just a problem for Poilievre among women. While impressions of the two leaders started out the same in the first week of the campaign, Carney is also becoming more likeable among men. 48% of men have a positive impression, 7-points higher than impressions of Poilievre at the same time, and an 8-point increase in positive impressions since the start of the campaign.

Where Pierre’s biggest problem with women lies is in relatability. Neither federal leader is particularly relatable for men or women, but the gender differences are much more stark for Poilievre.

39% of men say Poilievre understands people like them, among women this is 8 points lower. And 38% of men say Poilievre ‘shares my values’ this drops to 29% among women.

On the other hand, there are some gender differences for Carney as well. While men are more likely to state that he is smart (64% among men, 57% among women), they also find him a lot more fake (34%) and untrustworthy (37%) than women.

It is also worth noting that neither leader is seen as particularly likeable. Less than half say Carney or Poilievre is friendly- and even fewer (only a third) see either leader as compassionate.

Top Issues

For both men and women, this is still very much a cost-of-living election. President Trump also plays an equal role in deciding one’s vote between men and women. There are some differences but they are farther down the list; things like growing the economy, housing affordability, public services and the federal budget deficit and debt. Compared to the deep divide by generation, men and women will largely be voting on the same issues this election.

The Upshot

The Liberal lead is stronger among women than men, but this has largely come from a collapsing NDP vote share, not pulled from the Conservatives. And for now, vote intention looks similar between men and women.

There are however differences in how the leaders are perceived. For Poilievre his challenge is his relatability and women. Women are just a lot less likely to find him relatable than men are- likely why his comments last week have sparked some debate.

But Carney has his own challenges too- for him it is with men who find him less trustworthy and fake. Carney also has a much larger base of Canadians who are neutral- and need more time to form impressions either way.

In the coming weeks of the campaign, it’s Carney’s impressions I will be watching most closely. Aside from being labeled as ‘smart’ there is a lot of wiggle room on the rest of his personality. His performance at the debates and along campaign trail will be formative moments if Canadians are as tuned in as they say they are- and there is still time for impressions to form, and change.

Methodology

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the surveys from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

Wave 1: n=1,487 adults, conducted from March 17th to 20th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.56%, 19 times out of 20.

Wave 2: n=1,800 adults, conducted from March 24th to 26th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.

Wave 3: n=1,763 adults, conducted from March 31st to April 3rd, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.33%, 19 times out of 20.

Wave 4: n=1,900 adults, conducted from April 3rd to 8th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.25%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

All surveys were paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 6

At about the halfway point of the campaign, a new poll conducted entirely after Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs last week finds the Liberals opening up a six point lead over the Conservatives. The survey of 1,900 Canadian adults was conducted from April 3 to 8, 2025.

For the first time in the campaign, we find the Liberals opening up a statistically significant lead nationally over the Conservatives. If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals would get 42% compared with 36% for the Conservatives and 11% for the NDP. Since our last survey, the Liberals are up 3 while the Conservatives are down 3.

The Liberal lead holds even among those most certain to vote. Among likely voters, we have the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP is at 10%.

Regionally, the Liberals lead by 10 in Ontario, by 37 in Atlantic Canada, and by 19 in Quebec. In B.C., the Conservatives are ahead by 7, while in Alberta, the Conservatives lead by 29.

The Liberals are now ahead or tied with the Conservatives across all age groups. They lead by 7 among 18 to 29 year olds, by 4 among 30 to 44 year olds, are tied among those aged 45 to 59, and lead by 14 among those over 60.

They have also opened up a 17-point lead among those with a university degree, are ahead by 3 among college graduates, and trail by 3 among those with lower levels of formal education.

The Composition of the Liberal Coalition

When we look at who makes up the current Liberal coalition, based on their past voting behaviour, 61% of the current coalition voted Liberal in 2021, 20% didn’t vote in 2021, 8% voted NDP, and 7% voted Conservative.

This reinforces the fact that the Liberals have largely reconstituted the group who voted for them in 2021 and built on it by attracting almost equally from the Conservatives and the NDP.

Almost Half of Canadians Now Think the Liberals Will Win the Election

Today, 47% of Canadians think the Liberals will win the election, up 4 points from last week and up 15 since mid-March. 30% think the Conservatives will win and only 5% think the NDP will.

When we dig a bit deeper and ask whether the outcome will be close or not, we find that 46% think the Liberals will win and 31% think it will be close. Another 23% think the Conservatives will win with only 7% thinking the Conservatives will win by a lot. 17% think it’s a 50/50 coin flip while 15% are unsure how to describe the election.

Leader Favourability and Perceptions

Mark Carney’s net favourability hits +19 (47% positive, 28% negative), up five points from last week. While still divisive, Pierre Poilievre’s net score is not overly negative, but still no where near where Carney is today at -6 (38% positive, 44% negative).

On preferred Prime Minister, Carney now leads by seven points (41% vs. 34%). Carney is preferred as Prime Minister by 17 in Atlantic Canada, by 20 in Quebec, by 8 in Ontario, and by 6 in British Columbia.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

The Upshot: Liberals now clearly favoured

Our newest polling—conducted after Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement and the removal of the carbon price in provinces where the federal backstop was in place—shows the Liberals surging ahead with a six-point lead over the Conservatives. If the election were held today, the Liberals would capture 42% of the vote against 36% for the Conservatives, with the NDP at 11%. Not only have the Liberals gained three points over the past week (while the Conservatives shed three), but that advantage extends among likely voters, widening slightly to 43% versus 37%. Regionally, the Liberals now lead in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec by solid margins, while the Conservatives retain control in Alberta and carry a more modest edge in British Columbia. The Liberals are also either leading or running even among every age group, suggesting a broader demographic coalition behind Mark Carney.

Beyond vote intention, public perception appears to favour the Liberals. Nearly half of Canadians now predict a Liberal win—a 15-point jump since mid-March—and Carney’s net favourability has climbed to +19, positioning him well against Pierre Poilievre’s net -6. Carney’s lead on the “preferred Prime Minister” measure has grown to seven points, buttressed by double-digit advantages in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, and a comfortable edge in Ontario. Demographically, the Liberals have solid support from university graduates (a 17-point lead) while still being competitive among college graduates and those who previously supported other parties. Notably, 61% of current Liberal supporters backed the party in 2021, but the party has also attracted both former NDP and Conservative voters, plus a slice of those who sat out the last election altogether.

This broader Liberal base, set against a somewhat diminished but still energized Conservative core, has shifted the momentum considerably. Conservative partisans remain committed, yet the continued attention to trade uncertainty and the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs appears to have played into the Liberals’ hands, reinforcing Carney’s image as a steady manager in turbulent times. With nearly two weeks left, Poilievre may still recapture cost-of-living concerns and an appetite for change if Trump’s trade tensions recede from daily headlines. But for now, the Liberals have the upper hand. Should these trends hold, Carney’s issue ownership, his lead among Boomers, and rising personal favourability may well become defining factors—setting the stage for a decisive outcome in this pivotal 2025 election.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,900 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 3 to 8, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Trust, Change, and Uncertainty: What’s Really Shaping the Canadian Vote?

Between March 20 and 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. This wave explores how emotional drivers are shaping vote intentions and leadership preferences in the lead-up to the election. As affordability pressures and global instability dominate public discourse, Canadians are increasingly dividing along two emotional lines: those driven by a scarcity mindset, focused on immediate cost-of-living relief and a desire to disrupt the status quo; and those shaped by a precarity mindset, motivated by uncertainty about the future and a longing for stability, competence, and reassurance. This article examines how these underlying emotional currents are influencing voter priorities, perceptions of leadership, and the path to victory for Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.

What’s Driving the Vote? How Issues Are Shaping Canada’s 2025 Election

With the federal election underway, two issues have taken centre stage: affordability and Donald Trump. Affordability leads, with 34% of Canadians saying the cost of living will most influence their vote, while 19% cite Trump’s impact on Canada – highlighting how global uncertainty is shaping domestic decisions. The Conservatives lead among those focused on affordability (40% vs. 33% Liberal), while the Liberals dominate among voters prioritizing Trump’s impact (51% vs. 28% Conservative).

Still, nearly half of Canadians (47%) say another issue will be most important when they vote – proving that while affordability and Trump dominate the headlines, many voters are focused elsewhere. Among these other top issues, the Conservatives are favoured on jobs and the economy, taxes, and public safety, while the Liberals lead on healthcare, housing, climate change, and Canada-U.S. relations.

This contrast reveals a deeper divide in mindset. The Conservatives resonate with those in a scarcity mindset – voters seeking immediate relief and system disruption – while the Liberals connect with those in a precarity mindset, who are more focused on navigating uncertainty and restoring long-term stability. In a moment shaped by both economic pressure and global unease, this election will likely come down to which leader voters believe can best meet the moment they’re living through.

What Do Canadians Want from Their Next Leader? It Depends on the Lens

Canadians are divided on what the next Prime Minister should prioritize. One-third (34%) want a more independent, Canada-first approach to trade and economic policy, while 29% want a leader who will challenge elites and make life more affordable. Meanwhile, 18% prioritize rebuilding trust in government, and another 18% want a leader focused on global influence and managing geopolitical uncertainty.

Voting intentions appear to vary by priority. Those who prioritize a more independent, Canada-first approach lean Liberal (40% vs. 36% Conservative), while voters focused on affordability and challenging elites tilt slightly toward the Conservatives (35% vs. 32%). Conservatives also lead among those who say rebuilding trust and ensuring long-term domestic stability is most important (44% vs. 32% Liberal), while the Liberals dominate among voters who want to strengthen Canada’s global influence and navigate geopolitical uncertainty (51% vs. 35%).

Together, these findings highlight a growing divide in how Canadians see the role of leadership. The Conservatives are drawing support from voters who want to disrupt the status quo and regain control in the face of immediate pressures, while the Liberals are resonating with those who value long-term stability, global competence, and steady leadership. This signals that in the upcoming election, how a leader leads – disruptive versus stabilizing – may matter just as much as what they promise to do.

Stability or Disruption? Canadians Are Split on the Leadership They Want

In addition to being divided on what the next leader should prioritize, Canadians are also split on the kind of leader they believe the country needs. While 42% want someone who can bring stability and keep Canada on a steady path – even if change comes more slowly – only 18% prefer a leader who will shake up the system and make bold changes despite the uncertainty. Another 34% are looking for a balance: stability paired with meaningful reform.

This leadership divide is reflected in voter preferences. Mark Carney appeals to those who prioritize stability, earning 47% support among that group (vs. 31% for Poilievre), while Pierre Poilievre resonates with voters seeking disruption, winning 48% of those looking for bold change (vs. 27% for Carney).

This tension reflects the broader precarity mindset – where many Canadians, uncertain about their future, are craving reassurance. The question now is which leader can bridge the desire for calm with the need for change – and earn the trust of voters navigating a deeply uncertain moment.

The Upshot

As Canadians head toward a pivotal election in just 3 weeks, a clear divide has emerged between those intending to vote Conservative and those leaning Liberal – one that reflects not just political preferences, but fundamentally different worldviews. Pierre Poilievre has successfully tapped into a scarcity mindset, rallying voters who are most focused on immediate affordability, tax relief, and breaking down institutional barriers. These voters feel left behind by the system and want quick, tangible change. His message of disruption and control resonates strongly with those who see the present as unstable and the government as part of the problem.

In contrast, Mark Carney has gained traction among voters experiencing a precarity mindset – those who have concerns about the present but are more worried about what the future holds. These Canadians are navigating global uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and institutional instability. They are not necessarily demanding transformation, but instead, seeking a leader who offers competence, calm, and long-term reassurance.

For Poilievre, the challenge is to show that bold reform can come without further destabilizing the country – especially to voters feeling uncertain. For Carney, the opportunity lies in deepening trust among precarious voters while demonstrating that long-term planning doesn’t mean ignoring immediate struggles like affordability. Each leader has built strength within their respective mindset – scarcity and precarity – but winning may come down to who can bridge the two.

In a race defined as much by emotional climate as by policy, the leader who can meet Canadians where they are – acknowledging both their current frustrations and future anxieties – may ultimately earn their trust and their vote.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from March 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ada’s political future.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Abacus Data Poll: Houston Government More Popular Now Than in November, 50% Approval in a Challenging Time.

We’re back with more polling results and analysis from Nova Scotia.  

This time, we are sharing recent research on the provincial government’s performance, four months into the Houston government’s second mandate.

For our readers elsewhere in the country, here’s some quick background on Nova Scotia’s recent provincial election and the current political landscape: On November 26th 2024,  Bluenosers gave Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives a second mandate, with Houston’s party winning the provincial election by a “landslide” and Claudia Chender’s New Democratic Party unseating Zach Churchill’s Liberals as the Official Opposition. Churchill has since resigned, and Derek Mombourquette is currently serving as the Liberal party’s Interim Leader. In February and March, there was a legislative session with a Throne speech, provincial budget, and various bills passed into law, including legislation designed to drive Nova Scotia’s resource economy and change some government responsibilities and functions. The government’s winter 2025 agenda generated some public support and criticism, making it the right time for us to test opinions about provincial politics again.     

The results we are sharing today were collected through our new Nova Scotia omnibus survey with 600 adult Nova Scotians. Clients in Nova Scotia and beyond can now add questions to our Nova Scotia omnibus, giving you the data and insights you need to make good decisions during this uncertain time.

So how are Nova Scotians feeling about provincial politics and the direction of the province this winter? As you’ll see, Tim Houston’s PCs are more popular now than they were at the end of November. Claudia Chender’s NDP have also gained a little bit of ground in recent months, now sitting four points ahead of where they finished the election.

Everything we’ve collected suggests that Nova Scotians are happy with the electoral decisions they made last fall.

Here are the detailed results!

EQUAL NUMBER SAY N.S. HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AS THE WRONG DIRECTION

What’s the political mood in Nova Scotia right now?

The answer is: Satisfied and dissatisfied.  

As our regular readers will know, we often ask right track – wrong track questions in our political polling to see whether respondents think things in the World, Canada, and their home province are headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track.

Right now, as many people think things in Nova Scotia are on the right track (36%) as the wrong track (36%), generating a net neutral on this question.  

This balance stands in stark contract to how Nova Scotians are currently feeling about the direction of the country and the World – two other measures where public dissatisfaction far outweighs satisfaction.

Currently, just 10% of Nova Scotians think the World is headed in the right direction, and only 31% think Canada is on track, with much larger proportions thinking things are off-track (77% and 47%, respectively).    

HOUSTON PCS HAVE 30 PT LEAD ON VOTE INTENTIONS  

While Nova Scotians have complicated feelings about how things in the province are going, support for the Houston PC government remains strong. This is most evident in our measurement of current vote intentions.   

When Nova Scotians are asked who they would vote for if a provincial election was held today, Houston’s PCs finish well ahead of the other parties.  

Right now, the Houston PCs are at 56%. Chender’s NDP sit at 26%. And Mombourquette’s Liberals are at 13%.

For reference, the PCs earned 53% of the popular vote in the 2024 provincial election. The NDP earned 22% and the Liberals earned 23% of the popular vote.

This means that the governing party is more popular now than they were when Nova Scotians gave them a “supermajority” in the fall.   

Chender’s NDP have also gained a little bit of ground in recent months, now sitting four points ahead of where they were in November; and the Liberal vote has bottomed out, making 13% their new floor.  

HOUSTON’S PCS FAR AHEAD IN EVERY DEMO

When we slice-and-dice our current provincial vote data by other criteria, the party standings described above all hold.   

Houston’s PCs remain far ahead of the other parties in every region of the province and demographic group.

Chender’s NDP finishes second in all segments, with Mombourquette’s Liberals consistently place third.

50% APPROVAL FOR HOUSTON GOVERNMENT IN A CHALLENGING TIME

As we often do in our political polling, we also asked Nova Scotians to rate the recent performance of the Houston government in general and in some specific areas, based on everything they’ve seen and heard in the past few months.

On the big test: Considerably more Nova Scotians approve (50%) than disapprove (22%) of the way that the Houston government is handing things in the province.

This level – 50% overall approval – is another strong result for Premier Houston and his party.

Newly re-elected leaders and parties often experience a softening of goodwill as they start the difficult work of implementing their election promises. That hasn’t happened here.

Larger, domestic and international events (like Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the chaos of the second Trump Presidency) as well as persistent concerns about affordability have also created tremendous anxiety in recent months — giving everybody new things to worry about and making it much harder to govern the province than anyone would have expected six months ago.        

Achieving 50% approval is always a good showing (for any government, at any time), but in 2025, it seems like a high watermark. 

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL VARIES IN SPECIFIC AREAS

When we dig a bit deeper and ask Nova Scotians how they think the Premier Houston and his Ministers are doing on advancing some key priorities, the results vary.   

The Premier and his Ministers currently get 60% approval on dealing with the (new) realities of the second Trump presidency and the U.S. trade war; 51% approval on growing Nova Scotia’s economy; and 46% approval on improving healthcare.

Government approval is, however, less strong when Nova Scotians are asked to rate the Premier and his Ministers on some of the ways they are governing. Premier Houston and his Ministers get 39% approval on consulting and communicating with the public, 38% on managing the provincial budget, and 29% on spending taxpayer money.

Government approval on housing is also low (just 31%), with more people disapproving than approving of the Houston government’s performance on making housing more available and affordable – a big, complex problem that many Nova Scotians continue to care a lot about, even amidst the chaos of the second Trump Presidency and the U.S. trade war.  

WHAT ABOUT PREMIER HOUSTON? HOW POPULAR IS HE THIS WINTER?  

According to our latest polling, Premier Houston continues to be well-regarded, with more people having a positive impression than a negative impression of the current Premier, giving him a net impression score of +22 in the research we are releasing today.

Claudia Chender also remains popular, with a current net impression score of +17. 

As you may remember, we also tested impressions of all of the provincial party leaders during the 2024 provincial election campaign. In our last Nova Scotia election poll, the Premier had a net impression score of +12, and Claudia Chender had a net impression of +26. If we compare those results to our current ones, Tim Houston is slightly more popular and Claudia Chender is slightly less popular than they were on the eve of the election.

What about the other provincial leaders?

Interim Liberal Leader Derek Mombourquette, and Green Leader Anthony Edmonds currently have net impressions of +3 and -2, respectively.

In sharp contrast, the American President currently has a net impression score of -70 in Nova Scotia. That low score demonstrates how incredibly unpopular Donald Trump is in this part of the country, with three-quarters of Nova Scotians saying they are “angry” about Trump’s tariffs in the same omnibus survey.   

Please also check-out our recent Nova Scotia polling specifically on Trump’s Tariffs if you haven’t done so already. Link here.

34% APPROVAL OF CHENDER’S NDP AS OFFICIAL OPPOSITION

In the polling we’re releasing today, we also asked Nova Scotians to rate the performance of Chender’s NDP as the Official Opposition.

Four months into the job, Chender’s NDP gets 34% approval, with more Nova Scotians approving than disapproving of the NDP’s performance as the Official Opposition, generating a net positive. 

This also seems like a good result for Chender and her party, especially given the larger, geo-political dynamics at work this winter, and the tremendous stress they’re causing in every part of the country.

The Upshot

What does this all mean for Nova Scotia’s political landscape?

Simply put: Tim Houston’s PCs remain the party to beat in Nova Scotia, buoyed by general confidence in their approach to dealing with Donald Trump and growing Nova Scotia’s economy in a challenging time.  

Four months since the last provincial election, there are no signs that voters regret handing Houston’s PCs a stronger majority (a supermajority!). The Houston government’s focus on economic development, especially in the natural resources and energy sectors, also seems to strike many as a practical way to strengthen the economy as Donald Trump continues to threaten it.

While Trump’s words and actions are definitely creating anxiety in Nova Scotia, the Houston government seems focused on action, trusting that strategic investments and policy moves will help the province weather whatever storms come their way.    

Right now, it looks like Houston’s PCs have found solid ground during an extremely challenging time, and if the current public opinion environment holds, they are likely to remain the governing party for quite some time.

Our latest provincial polling also shows that Claudia Chender’s NDP is meeting and exceeding expectations, finishing far ahead of the Liberals in current vote intentions and with Chender’s personal popularity remaining high. This also seems like good news for the Leader of the Opposition, as she continues to introduce herself to Nova Scotians and define her party’s positions across the province.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 600 adult Nova Scotians over the age of 18 from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Canadian PoliticsPoliticsPublic Policy

Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked at 39% each.

As we enter the third week of the 2025 federal campaign—and just days after “Liberation Day” (April 2), when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs—our latest Abacus Data poll provides a snapshot of the race at its midpoint. The overall top-line numbers remain remarkably stable, yet beneath the surface we observe important shifts in voter enthusiasm, leadership impressions, and growing confidence in the Liberals’ prospects.

Liberals and Conservatives are tied nationally

For a second straight week, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied with 39% support each, followed by the NDP at 11%. No other party garners more than 6% of the committed vote. While this statistical deadlock might suggest a purely even contest, it can be deceptive in a first-past-the-post system; where each vote is located often proves more telling than the raw percentage. Even so, these top-line figures alone confirm neither party has managed to break away.

The NDP’s persistent struggles at 11% underscore a continuing trend of centre-left voters coalescing under the Liberal banner. Jagmeet Singh faces limited time to re-energize or alter that dynamic in the weeks ahead.

Although the raw numbers remain unchanged, Conservative supporters now say they are more likely to vote than Liberal partisans. Compared to last week, the CPC has nudged ahead on “definite voter turnout,” going from slightly behind the Liberals to surpassing them (75% vs. 71%). That gap is small, but it’s worth monitoring. An uptick in Conservative motivation could, in a tight race, tip certain ridings their way.

A closer look at the provinces reveals several noteworthy developments:

Atlantic Canada: The Liberal lead hovers near 20 points, reflecting a region largely comfortable staying with Carney.

British Columbia: Remains a near tie between the two major parties, with the NDP lagging behind but still holding some regional strongholds.

Ontario: The Liberals have opened a 6-point lead, up from around 3 or 4 points a week ago. If that margin persists or grows, it could significantly boost the Liberals in seat-rich areas like the 905 and GTA.

Quebec: The Liberals stay on top, but the Conservatives have moved into second place—10 points behind the Liberals but outpacing the Bloc.

Despite that surge in Conservative motivation, the Liberals continue to expand their accessible voter pool, which is now over 55% nationally. This includes majorities in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia who say they would consider voting Liberal. By contrast, the Conservative pool stands at 51%—a respectable figure but one that has not grown in recent weeks.

This broader pool translates into more routes to victory for Mark Carney’s Liberals. It means they can pull together the votes they need in regions where the Conservative appeal is lower or where the NDP is less able to mount a challenge. The Conservatives, for their part, retain a strong base but may find themselves locked out of seat-determining ridings if they can’t persuade more undecided or second-choice voters.

The Desire for Change & Expected Election Outcome

We continue to see 54% of Canadians “definitely” wanting a change from the Liberals, essentially unchanged from last week. At the same time, 22% strongly prefer keeping the Liberals in power. While the overall appetite for change remains substantial, public sentiment about the outcome of the election has shifted: 43% believe the Liberals will ultimately win, compared to 33% expecting a Conservative government. This 10-point gap in perceived inevitability has grown from just a few weeks ago, when many still envisioned a Conservative victory.

Leader Favourability and Perceptions

Mark Carney’s net favourability hits +15 (45% positive, 30% negative), up four points from last week. Carney’s appeal remains broad, with older voters, women, and Atlantic Canadians particularly positive. While still divisive, Pierre Poilievre’s net score has improved slightly to -4 (38% positive, 42% negative). This subtle climb indicates that some negative impressions may be softening among certain demographics, though Poilievre remains polarizing.

On preferred Prime Minister, Carney leads by five points (38% vs. 33%), a margin unchanged from the previous wave. Carney’s prime-ministerial appeal appears strongest in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, whereas Poilievre does best in the Prairies.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

Carney vs. Poilievre: The Leadership Gap

On personal qualities, Carney surpasses Poilievre by 15 points on “finding common ground,” by 7 on “standing up to a bully,” and by 8 on “helping manage your household expenses.” However, his lead on “captaining a ship through a rough storm” shrank from seven points down to three, indicating that Conservative efforts to question Carney’s real-world crisis credentials may be resonating slightly.

Issue Ownership

We see little movement on the issues:

  • The Liberals lead by 10 points on dealing with Trump, by 5 on growing the economy, by 10 on representing Canada internationally, and by 7 on unity.
  • The Conservatives lead by 8 on reducing the cost of living and by 7 on housing, both consistent with Poilievre’s focus on affordability.

The Upshot: Advantage Liberal Continues

Our latest research confirms that this 2025 federal race remains close and intensely competitive, with neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives able to break out beyond the 39% mark in committed support. While the tie in raw numbers might suggest a stalemate, the Liberals benefit from a broader voter pool and a notable lead in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada—key battlegrounds that could determine seat outcomes. At the same time, higher turnout intentions among Conservative partisans illustrate a formidable CPC base still determined to bring about change. If that base continues to harden, the Conservatives retain a path to victory, even if it is growing narrower by the day.

The core debate shaping voters’ choices is as much about Canada’s economic future as it is about its role on the global stage. Economic issues—from housing costs to inflation—remain top of mind for many, especially younger and middle-aged Canadians shouldering mortgages and daily living expenses. Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, are pressing these affordability concerns hard, hoping to capitalize on the 54% of Canadians who “definitely want change.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s unpredictable moves, including the reciprocal tariffs first threatened and then selectively retracted, have sharpened anxieties around national security and economic stability. Mark Carney and the Liberals have seized on that uncertainty to present Carney as the best “captain in a storm,” a narrative that aligns well with his improving personal favourability and the perception that Liberals are stronger on foreign policy.

With just under three weeks left until Canadians head to the polls, engagement is high, and the political environment remains fluid. Either a resurgence of Trump’s trade threats could reaffirm the Liberals’ message of steady leadership, or a lull in U.S. tensions might allow cost-of-living concerns to return to the fore, enabling Poilievre to reassert his “time for a change” theme. Meanwhile, the NDP’s persistent 11% suggests Jagmeet Singh is struggling to draw progressives from Carney. Should any unexpected development—be it economic, international, or a campaign misstep—emerge in the next few weeks, those small but crucial blocs of undecided voters and soft partisans may yet tip the balance. Given the stakes and the heightened voter interest, this campaign is set to deliver a lively, unpredictable finish—and whichever leader proves most adept at framing the ballot-box question will likely gain the edge in shaping Canada’s political future.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from March 31 to April 3, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

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Canadian Politics

Carney's French skills not good enough for many, poll shows – Toronto Star

Liberal Leader Mark Carney takes part in a television interview with Radio-Canada in Montreal on April 3, 2025. Shawn Pavlin THE CANADIAN PRESS … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/mark-carneys-french-skills-not-good-enough-for-a-prime-minister-say-a-third-of/article_4e6c6261-9f07-4fc2-a686-83737a4f94cc.html&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw1hPWVbmtoG9OMFDqVwErQX

Toronto Star

For Gen Z this is still the cost-of-living election, but will they vote?

The inauguration of President Trump, tariff announcements and other commentary, and a new Prime Minister, have changed the landscape of Canadian politics, including our top issues. But for young Canadians, this is still a cost-of-living election. What remains to be seen is whether they will be motivated to turn out and vote.

The results in this release are taken from two surveys conducted since the campaign began. A survey of n=1,487 18+ adults in Canada from March 17th to 20th and a survey of n=1,800 18+ adults in Canada March 24th to 26th.

Top Issues

There are two clear top issues dominating this election cycle. Reducing the cost of living, which has been a top issue for some time, is a top two issue for 47% of Canadians. Dealing with President Trump is now the number two overall issue for Canadians at 35%. All other issues trail behind these two: growing the economy at 19%, making housing more affordable at 19%, improving the healthcare system at 16%, and making Canada a better place to live at 15%.

Over the first week of the campaign these top issues have only become more important. Cost of living rising two points (still no statistically significant changes here) and dealing with President Trump and the impact of his decisions seeing a similar bump.

What is significant however is how this has pulled attention away from other issues. The collective increase of 4 points among these top two issues have meant things like healthcare have fallen down the list since the start of the campaign.

But this list varies considerably by generation. The top issue for Boomers is dealing with President Trump (49%), ahead of everything else, including cost of living by a significant margin.

The landscape looks considerably different for Gen Z, who place cost of living as their top issue (46%), followed by housing affordability (33%). Dealing with President Trump is a distant third at 23%. There is a 15-point gap between how much importance Gen Z places on President Trump vs. everyone else.

Gen Z also places more emphasis on the environment in their vote compared to others.

Vote Intention

Despite these differences vote intention between generations is looking similarly tied.

The Liberals lead among Gen Z and Boomers, and are in a much tighter race than they were in December among millennials and Gen X. Among Gen Z, the pull of votes towards the Liberals is clearly coming from the NDP vote. They have dropped 14 points among this generation since December.

But among older voters, especially Boomers, the pull towards the Liberals is from both sides.

Leader Impressions

Younger Canadians tend to have softer impressions of Pierre Poilievre. Since the campaign began, impressions among Gen Z and Millennials are net positive, by a small margin. But Boomers feel particularly negative about Mr. Poilievre with a -19 net impression.

Boomers’ impression of Mark Carney is the opposite. A +19 impression of the Prime Minister, and the generation who has the most positive impressions of the leader.

Carney is also highly favoured among Gen Z, 38% have a positive impression and 22% a negative impression (the lowest negatives among all generations).

Turnout

One of the biggest questions in this election remains voter turnout. Voter turnout has consistently been higher among older Canadians and the data is showing this trend is likely to continue. 84% of Boomers say they are certain to vote this election, compared to 42% of Gen Z.

If these turnout numbers hold, the election is likely to be decided by generations other than Gen Z- which means it is shaping up to be an election about Canada-US relations.

The Upshot

Vote intention is looking similar among generations so far, but this election is about a very different list of issues for Gen Z compared to everyone else. Gen Z remains in a cost-of-living crisis as well as a reality where many big milestones, like purchasing a house, remain out of reach. They have remained more consistently in the pre-Trump reality, of this being a cost-of-living election.

But other, older generations have moved on and are placing increasing focus on Canada-US relations. Right now, these older generations are also far more motivated to vote, paying more attention to what is happening and as a result, more successfully shaping the election narrative and likely the election outcome, too – it’s not just an election issue, it’s a national priority.

Methodology

The results in this release are taken from two surveys conducted since the campaign began. A survey of n=1,487 18+ adults in Canada from March 17th to 20th and a survey of n=1,800 18+ adults in Canada March 24th to 26th.

The first survey was conducted with 1,487 Canadian adults from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.54%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

The second survey was conducted with 1,800 Canadian adults from March 24 to 26, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Canadian PoliticsPoliticsPublic Policy

Canadians Want Housing Policy Reform, Highlighting the Need for Faster Development and Innovative Financing

Between November 6 and 18, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 4,001 Canadian adults (18+) to explore public perceptions of the housing market. Commissioned by Mattamy Homes Canada, this study looks at how Canadians feel about housing affordability, accessibility, and the role of governments, developers, and other stakeholders in addressing the crisis.

The findings reveal widespread concern: a significant majority of Canadians believe homeownership is becoming increasingly unattainable, housing affordability is worsening, and the pace of new development is too slow to meet demand. While many point to government inaction as a primary barrier, there is also strong support for innovative financing solutions and regulatory reforms to speed up construction.

As attention shifts to other economic issues, Canadians are clear – housing must stay a top priority in the federal election. Canadians want urgent action to increase supply, improve affordability, and cut barriers to progress.

Housing Market Concerns and Affordability

Concerns about housing in Canada are loud and growing. Nine in ten Canadians (88%) are worried about affordability, especially those aged 30 to 44 (92%), 45 to 59 (91%), renters (93%), and urban residents (91%).

These worries extend beyond general sentiment to more specific, lived challenges: 74% say housing in their area is unaffordable, 70% report limited availability, and 89% believe homeownership is becoming increasingly out of reach.

The message is clear – without decisive action from policymakers, affordability will continue to decline, leaving more Canadians struggling to find stable, secure housing.

Who is Responsible for the Housing Crisis?

Frustration with government efforts to address the housing crisis is high across all levels. Seven in ten Canadians (70%) believe the federal government is not doing enough to improve the situation, while two-thirds (66%) feel the same about their provincial government. Although slightly lower, a majority (61%) also believe their municipal government is falling short.

Despite growing concerns, Canadians agree that government must take the lead on housing. Most hold all levels of government accountable, with 64% pointing to the federal government and 51% to provincial governments.

There is strong support for government intervention: 65% back active involvement – 34% want full government responsibility with major investments, while 31% prefer a public-private partnership. At the same time, Canadians acknowledge the important role of builders and developers (70%) and believe stronger incentives are needed to prioritize affordability (67%).

Together, these findings reflect a clear demand for leadership, accountability, and action. Canadians expect governments at all levels to step up with bold policies and meaningful investments, while also working with industry to deliver more – and more affordable – housing.

Homebuilders and Developers: The Role in Increasing Supply

Canadians see homebuilders and developers as key to solving the housing crisis but believe government policies often stand in the way. Three in four (72%) say regulations slow down housing projects, and the same proportion point to high development fees and taxes as major cost drivers. In addition to this, 71% believe current government policies are out of step with housing demand and no longer reflect the realities of today’s housing market.

There is strong support for policy changes to remove these roadblocks and accelerate construction. Nearly 72% believe faster approvals are necessary to meet demand, while the same proportion point to development fees and taxes as key contributors to higher home prices. Red tape (71%) and restrictive zoning (65%) are also seen as major obstacles.

Many Canadians also support policies that accelerate development, including reducing development fees (42%), streamlining approval processes (41%), and offering tax breaks or subsidies to encourage new projects (37%).

For Canada to meet its housing needs, governments must work collaboratively with industry to remove barriers and speed up development. Creating a more efficient approval process and incentivizing new construction will help boost supply and improve affordability.

Canadians Want Bold Policies and Innovative Financing Solutions

Canadians strongly back bold, practical solutions to tackle the housing crisis – particularly those that make homeownership more attainable and which help bring down monthly costs. Seven in ten (70%) support promoting rent-to-own models to help renters transition into ownership, while 64% favour expanding access to 30-year mortgages to lower monthly payments. A majority also support reinvesting HST revenues from new home sales into housing infrastructure (61%) and allowing homebuilders to offer temporary mortgage rate buy-downs to ease costs for new buyers (56%). Together, these measures reflect a growing appetite for innovative, flexible policies that reduce barriers to ownership and create a more accessible path to homeownership for Canadians.

At the time of the survey, awareness of existing government housing support was limited – only 24% of Canadians were familiar with the federal New Housing Rebate Program. However, 60% believe the program should be updated to better reflect the realities of today’s housing costs.

Support is also growing for zoning and density reform. More than half (55%) believe higher-density developments can help ease housing shortages, and 50% support removing zoning restrictions to allow for greater density without drawn-out rezoning processes. Opposition to these changes remains limited, with just 14% opposed.

Ultimately, Canadians are calling for long-term, forward-thinking solutions that reduce affordability pressures and boost supply. Addressing financing barriers, modernizing zoning rules, and streamlining approvals are seen as critical steps toward a more responsive and inclusive housing market.

The Upshot

As attention shifts to economic issues like trade and tariffs, Canadians remain clear: housing must remain front and centre in this election. Widespread concern over affordability and access to homeownership continues to dominate public sentiment, with many feeling that the dream of owning a home is slipping further out of reach. While political focus may waver, the urgency to act on housing cannot. With housing affordability at crisis levels, Canadians are calling for swift, meaningful action to boost supply, lower costs, and remove policy barriers.

The path forward is clear. Canadians want to see homes built faster, red tape cut, and financing tools introduced that make homeownership more accessible. They also expect a skilled workforce capable of meeting demand.

  • Speed matters. Canadians overwhelmingly support accelerating construction by streamlining approval processes, reducing development fees, and eliminating unnecessary delays. Without urgent action, frustration with government inaction will only intensify.
  • Affordability is critical. With housing costs far outpacing incomes, many Canadians are open to creative solutions like longer mortgage terms, rent-to-own programs, and shared equity models to ease the financial burden and increase access to stable housing.

The debate should no longer about who is to blame, but who will lead. Housing has taken centre stage on the campaign trail this week, with parties unveiling a range of policies and proposals. While these announcements are a positive first step, real progress will be measured by how effectively these promises are delivered after the April 28th election.

Canadians are clear about what’s needed: accelerate construction, eliminate barriers, and introduce innovative pathways to homeownership. The pressure is building, and public expectations are high. Housing must stay at the forefront – it’s not just an election issue, it’s a national priority.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 4,001 Canadian adults from November 6 to 18, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.55%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Mattamy Homes.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Canadian PoliticsHousingPoliticsPublic Policy

64% of Canadians support an immediate stop to buying military equipment from the U.S. – Majority support loosening budget restrictions and increasing defence spending

The Canadian public is facing significant uncertainty as the new U.S. administration disrupts geopolitical norms. Key issues in the ongoing federal election include the trade dispute between Canada and the United States and concerns over Canada’s territorial integrity. One topic that combines all these ongoing issues is the federal spending on Canada’s defence. In recent weeks, media outlets have focused on Canada’s purchase of F-35 fighter jets and artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) from the United States. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, European leaders are also reassessing their defence priorities. The EU is seeking new ways to increase their defence spending to fill the void left by a shifting U.S. role in the European security architecture.

One of our recent national surveys of 2,000 Canadian adults (March 20 – 25, 2025) explores public opinion on the Canadian Armed Forces, defence budget and spending priorities, and mandatory military service.

Public opinion on the Canadian Armed Forces

To start, we wanted to know Canadians’ current impression of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). A combined 60% of Canadians have a very or mostly positive impression of the CAF. 23% stated that they have a neutral impression, and only 8% have a very or mostly negative impression. The most favorable opinions come from Canadians aged 60 and older, as well as those from the Atlantic region.

Next, we asked Canadians whether they trust or distrust the Canadian Armed Forces’ ability to effectively defend Canada.  

Nearly half of Canadians (48%) say they completely or somewhat trust the CAF to defend Canada. 20% say they neither trust nor distrust, and 23% express some level of distrust. The trust level is lower in Quebec compared to other provinces, while older Canadians (60 and over) also show more distrust. We asked those who showed distrust for their reasoning, and the most reoccurring concerns were a lack of manpower, outdated equipment, and insufficient military funding.

With the United States becoming more isolated on the international stage, there are scenarios where Canadian and U.S. interests may contradict. To gauge public perception, we asked half of our sample whether they believe the CAF can defend Canadian interests “without the United States as an ally” and the other half whether the CAF can defend Canadian interests “against the United States if needed.”

The results for both statements are relatively similar. 39% of Canadians agree strongly or somewhat that the CAF can defend Canadian interests “without the United States as an ally”, while 38% agree that the CAF can defend Canadian interests “against the United States if needed”. However, disagreement is slightly higher for the second statement, with 38% expressing some level of disagreement, compared to 33% for the first. Older Canadians (60+) are more skeptical than younger age groups and show a stronger disagreement with both statements. Notably, half of Canadians aged 60 and older strongly or somewhat disagree that the CAF can defend Canadian interests against the United States if needed.

Defence budget and spending priorities

In response to the war in Ukraine and the recent geopolitical uncertainty heightened by the Trump administration, European countries found new ways to loosen budget restrictions and boost their military spending. We wanted to understand what Canadians think a new federal government should do.

A combined 51% of Canadians believe it would be a very good or good idea for a new federal government to loosen budget restrictions to immediately increase Canada’s military spending. About a quarter see this as an acceptable idea, while only 12% think this a bad or very bad idea. Again, older Canadians (60+) show the strongest support (62%) among the age groups.  

Next, we reminded respondents about the following: In 2024, Canada spent roughly 1.3 % of its GDP on defence—falling short of NATO’s target of at least 2%. In January 2025, Defence Minister Bill Blair announced plans to reach the 2% spending goal by 2027 instead of 2032.

65% of Canadians believe a new federal government should spend much or somewhat more on Canada’s defence than it does now. Meanwhile, 17% think spending should remain the same, and only 6% say to spend somewhat or much less. Support for increased defence spending grows with age—54% of 18–29-year-olds favor an increase, compared to 76% of those aged 60 and older.

In March 2024, we asked Canadians the following question: “If a political party proposed creating a new $100 special levy or tax to raise money to increase Canada’s defence budget to meet our commitment to NATO and improve the readiness and capability of our military, would you support, accept, or oppose it?”

In this survey, we asked the same question again and found that overall support has increased by 12 points, rising from 20% in March 2024 to 32% now. There is a 19-point decrease from 44% in March 2024 to 25% now of Canadians who oppose or strongly oppose a $100 special levy or tax. Canadians with a household income of over $100,000 a year and Liberal voters show above-average support for the proposed levy in March 2025 compared to the general population.

We asked Canadians to identify the top three priorities for the Canadian government when purchasing new military equipment, with each respondent selecting three priorities. The top three selected purchase priorities for what “new military equipment should” were:

  • “Meet the demands of the Canadian Armed Forces” (40%),
  • “Be manufactured in Canada” (35%)
  • “Be compatible with systems of Canadian allies (e.g., NATO)” (32%).

Additionally, 31% of respondents chose “lower Canada’s dependability on other countries” while 29% selected “be purchased from Canadian companies” and “not be purchased from the United States”.

Given that military equipment purchases are a key topic in the 2025 federal election, these results suggest that the Canadian public is open to reassessing and adjusting current purchasing priorities.

Since military equipment purchases are increasingly linked to the ongoing tariff dispute between Canada and the new Trump administration, we asked Canadians whether they support or oppose the Canadian federal government immediately stopping the purchase of defence and military equipment from the United States. A combined 64% of Canadians support such an immediate halt, while 21% remain neutral. Only 9% oppose or strongly oppose the idea. Support for an immediate stop varies by political affiliation: Conservative voters show less support (53%) compared to Liberal voters (75%) and NDP voters (72%).

Mandatory military service

As a final question, we asked Canadians if they would support or oppose introducing mandatory military service for young Canadians. We provided a brief explanation of what mandatory military service would entail. 26% of Canadians strongly support or somewhat support the idea of mandatory military service, while 19% could accept it. However, 45% somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the idea. Among the 18 to 29-year-old age group, who would be most directly affected by mandatory service, the results are similar to the overall population. Conservative voters show stronger support (33%) compared to the average. When we asked those who support mandatory military service to explain why, the most common reasons included strengthening national defence, improving discipline and responsibility among youth, and offering career and skill development opportunities.

The Upshot

As Canada navigates new geopolitical challenges – including its fragmenting relationship with the United States and NATO commitments – the Canadian public is expressing a growing interest in revising national defence priorities. A majority of Canadians maintain a positive view of the Canadian Armed Forces, with 60% holding favorable opinions. However, there are some concerns about the CAF’s ability to defend Canada effectively, particularly regarding its reliance on the United States.

In response to increasing global tensions, Canadians are predominantly supportive of boosting military spending. 65% believe that the Canadian government should spend more on defence, with support rising among older demographics. This aligns with the support of 51% of Canadians to loosen budget restrictions to make it happen. This goes so far that compared to a year ago, Canadians show a growing support for a special levy or tax to raise money to increase Canada’s defence budget. 61% either strongly support, support or could accept the idea of a $100 special levy or tax.

Notably, 64% of Canadians support immediately halting defence purchases from the United States. This sentiment also extends to military equipment purchasing priorities, with 35% of respondents favoring equipment manufactured in Canada and 31% prioritizing equipment that lowers Canada’s dependence on other countries.

When it comes to mandatory military service, public opinion is divided. While 45% oppose the idea, 45% of Canadians either strongly support, support or could accept mandatory military service. Conservative voters show stronger support for mandatory military service. Across Europe, there are increasing discussions around mandatory military service, e.g., during the election campaign in Germany in February 2025.

Overall, the results reveal a significant desire for a shift in Canada’s defence policies, with a focus on bolstering military spending, reducing dependence on the U.S., and rethinking priorities around military equipment acquisition. This evolving public opinion is sure to influence discussions in the 2025 federal election, with defence and national security taking center stage. Federal parties can capitalize on this shift in public opinion by offering a strategic path forward, particularly to engage older voters.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadians aged 18 and over from March 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set partner panel based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

About Abacus Data

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.

Contact us with any questions

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. 

Canadian PoliticsPoliticsPublic Policy

The Politics of Precarity: How Economic and Social Uncertainty Can Shape Canadian Voter Preferences 

Between March 17 and 20, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. As part of this, we developed the Abacus Data Precarity Index, a measure used to categorize Canadians based on their level of confidence in the future. The index ranges from those who feel secure and resilient in the face of change (low precarity) to those experiencing heightened anxiety and uncertainty about how sudden shifts could impact their personal well-being (extreme precarity).  

As Canadians prepare for the next federal election, we have witnessed a shift in the mindset of Canadians that has the potential to impact how voters view the country’s leadership and potentially impact who they ultimately vote for. Those experiencing higher levels of precarity – marked by economic anxiety, social instability, and uncertainty about the future – see the world through a very different lens than those who feel more secure and confident. This mindset is not about party preference, but about what kind of leader people believe is best suited to navigate an unpredictable future. 

The Stability vs. Disruption Divide 

Voters who feel economically and socially secure are firmer in their vote, with 72% of low precarity voters and 68% of mild precarity voters saying their decision is final. In contrast, those experiencing higher precarity remain more open to persuasion – 54% of high precarity voters and 45% of extreme precarity voters say they could still change their minds. While a majority (55%) of extreme precarity voters have made their decision, this still highlights a high degree of vote fluidity among those most uncertain about the future, making them a key group to watch in the election. 

This fluidity matters because, as noted in our last post, those with high and extreme precarity scores are currently more likely to vote Liberal (40% and 61%), while those with low and mild precarity scores lean Conservative (53% and 46%). 

However, leadership preferences add complexity to this divide. When asked who they prefer to be the next Prime Minister of Canada, Carney is the clear favourite among high (61%) and extreme (76%) precarity voters, while Poilievre dominates among those with low precarity scores (62%). Interestingly, among mild and moderate precarity voters, Carney holds a narrow lead (52%-48% and 53%-47%, respectively), indicating that even some who feel relatively stable view him as the safer choice in uncertain times. 

Who is Best Suited to Lead in Uncertain Times? 

As Canadians face growing economic and political uncertainty, leadership preferences reveal a clear stability vs. disruption divide. Those with higher precarity prefer Carney’s institutional expertise and stability, while those who feel secure favour Poilievre’s promise of bold change and disruption. 

Donald Trump: Trump has become a defining issue in this election. 57% of extreme precarity voters believe that Carney is the person best able to deal with Donald Trump, while 45% of low precarity voters favor Poilievre. Those feeling vulnerable prioritize diplomatic stability, while those more secure favour a more confrontational approach. 

Economic Growth: A similar divide appears on economic leadership – Carney is seen as the best person to grow the economy by extreme (49%) and high (44%) precarity voters, while Poilievre leads among low (49%) and mild (43%) precarity voters.  

Housing Affordability: On making housing more affordable, Carney is preferred by high (31%) and extreme (32%) precarity voters, while Poilievre dominates among low (43%) and mild (40%) precarity voters. Interestingly, 33% of extreme precarity voters back Singh on housing, signaling NDP appeal among the most economically strained. 

Budget Deficit & Government Spending: 56% of extreme and 43% of high precarity voters trust Carney to manage the federal budget deficit, while 48% of low precarity voters prefer Poilievre. Again, those facing uncertainty favour stability, while those feeling secure lean toward spending cuts. 

Cost of Living: Among high precarity voters, Carney (31%) and Poilievre (28%) are nearly tied, while extreme precarity voters lean slightly toward Carney. Poilievre leads among those with mild and moderate precarity, suggesting his affordability message has broader reach – but Carney resonates more with those feeling the greatest uncertainty. 

National Unity: Carney is the top choice to keep Canada united among 51% of extreme and 31% of high precarity voters, while Poilievre is preferred by 46% of low precarity voters and leads among those with mild and moderate precarity. This suggests that those feeling the most uncertainty are drawn to unity and stability, while those who feel more secure tend to favour change. 

Across key issues – economic growth, housing, global relations, and government spending – those experiencing greater precarity favour Carney, while those who feel more secure lean toward Poilievre. However, cost of living remains a shared concern across all voter groups, making it a pivotal battleground. 

How Precarity Shapes Government Approval 

Voters experiencing the highest levels of precarity are more likely to approve of the federal government’s performance, with 47% of high precarity voters and 54% of extreme precarity voters expressing support for the job the Carney-led government is doing. This suggests that Carney’s approach – emphasizing stability, economic expertise, and long-term planning – resonates with those feeling the most uncertainty. 

However, these high to extreme precarity voters, as noted above, are the most susceptible to changing their minds. While Carney’s messaging is working, maintaining their trust will be critical. He must continue reinforcing his ability to provide steady leadership, tangible economic relief, and a clear vision for navigating uncertain times.  

Meanwhile, those who feel more secure (low precarity voters) are more inclined to seek change, with 42% disapproving of the government’s performance led by Mark Carney. This underscores a key challenge – Carney must solidify support among those seeking stability while demonstrating to more secure voters that his leadership is the right choice for Canada’s long-term economic future. At the same time, Poilievre’s advantage among these voters means he must continue reinforcing his message of bold change, lower taxes, and immediate affordability relief. His challenge will be expanding his appeal beyond those who feel secure, by demonstrating he can also offer a steady hand in uncertain times. 

THE UPSHOT

With precarious voters still persuadable, the election could hinge on which leader best convinces them they can navigate Canada’s uncertainty. Carney must reinforce his credibility on affordability and make the case that long-term stability is essential for lowering costs. Meanwhile, Poilievre must persuade voters he can deliver immediate financial relief without adding to instability. Both leaders must expand their appeal – Carney by acknowledging immediate affordability pressures, and Poilievre by demonstrating he can govern effectively in volatile times. 

This data highlights a fundamental divide in how Canadians perceive leadership in uncertain times. Those who feel secure gravitate toward Poilievre, seeing him as a disruptor who promises lower costs and economic relief. In contrast, those who feel more precarious lean toward Carney, trusting him as a steady leader who can navigate economic and political turbulence. 

Ultimately, the most precarious voters remain the most persuadable. Their preference for stability means they will seek concrete assurances on economic security, affordability, and Canada’s role in a volatile global environment. This election is not just about party loyalty – it’s about who can best address the anxieties shaping Canada’s future. 

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source. 

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20. 

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. 

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.  

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ Presidency, it seems pretty unlikely, that this issue, and it’s political velocity, will be going away.   

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Canadian PoliticsPoliticsPublic Policy