Justin Trudeau’s government has had to weather many storms over the last eight years.
The SNC-Lavalin controversy. An old yearbook photo with the prime minister in blackface. Multiple ethics violations. The COVID-19 pandemic.
But as the governing Liberals continue to slide in the polls, the slow-moving hurricane that may actually end up blowing them away appears to be the economy.
On behalf of Food, Health, and Consumer Products of Canada, Abacus Data conducted nationwide survey of Canadians’ views towards competition in the grocery retail market and the Grocery Code of Conduct. The survey was conducted November 23 to 28, 2023 with a representative sample of 2,417 Canadian adults.
7 in 10 Canadians believe a highly concentrated grocery market leads to higher grocery prices.
When Canadians are told that most Canadians buy groceries from one of five companies and these companies sell 80% of groceries in Canada, 74% believe this market concentration leads to higher prices. 13% think it leads to lower prices while 5% think it has no impact on prices.
This perception is consistent across Canada, across demographic groups, and by supporters of all the major political parties in Canada.
A Grocery Code of Conduct
Although most Canadians are unaware of efforts by industry to establish a Grocery Code of Conduct, most believe it is a good idea when they are informed about it.
68% of Canadians believe a Grocery Code of Conduct is a good idea while only 7% consider it a bad idea. 1 in 4 say they don’t have a clear view.
This view is shared by at least 60% of Canadians in every region of the country and by those from all age, gender, and household income groups. It’s also worth noting that a clear majority of Conservative Party, Liberal Party, and New Democratic Party supporters believe a Grocery Code of Conduct is a good idea and there is little resistance to the idea.
When told that not all major grocery retailers have agreed to abide by the code, 70% of Canadians would support the federal and provincial governments making it mandatory for all large grocery chains to follow the Grocery Code of Conduct.
This view is shared by 62% of Conservative Party supporters, 82% of Liberal Party supporters, and 76% of NDP supporters.
The Upshot
The cost of living has been the top issue of concern for Canadians for several years now. When we ask what is most likely keeping people up at night, rising prices, inflation, and the general cost of living is the most common response.
Given then, it’s no surprise that Canadians want to see costs come down and most believe the grocery retail market in Canada leads to higher prices. That’s why there is a cross-country, cross-partisan agreement that the Grocery Code of Conduct is a good idea and there’s widespread support for governments to impose it on retailers who refuse to abide by it.
Consumers want governments to protect their interests and at a time when the cost of living is the most important issue facing Canadians, action on the Grocery Code of Conduct will be met with widespread public support.
Background
The Grocery Code of Conduct in Canada is a set of industry guidelines and principles aimed at promoting fairness, transparency, and competition within the grocery supply chain. The voluntary code seeks to address issues such as unfair practices, arbitrary fees, and lack of clarity in business relationships between suppliers and retailers in the grocery sector. The code encourages open communication, equitable treatment, and timely payments for suppliers, ensuring that both small and large businesses have a level playing field. By fostering trust and accountability among stakeholders, the Grocery Code of Conduct aims to enhance the overall efficiency and competitiveness of Canada’s grocery industry, ultimately benefiting consumers through improved product availability and affordability.
For more than two years, a Grocery Code Steering Committee representing business associations and key stakeholders within the supply chain have been developing the provision and governance documents that collectively make up the code. Now complete, the code was recently submitted to government for review prior to the recruitment of a Chief Executive Officer to manage the development of a Grocery Adjudication Office in the Spring of 2024.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,417 Canadian adults from November 23 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
This survey was paid for by Food, Health, and Consumer Products of Canada.
On behalf of Chicken Farmers of Canada, Egg Farmers of Canada, Dairy Farmers of Canada, Turkey Farmers of Canada and the Canadian Hatching Egg Producers, Abacus Data conducted an online nationwide survey of Canadians’ views on the food system and supply management of dairy, eggs, chicken, and turkey in Canada. The sample size of the survey is n=2,000 adult Canadians, fielded November 9th to 11th, 2023. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Canadians place a great deal of importance on maintaining a strong, stable domestic supply of dairy, eggs, chicken and turkey. 9 in 10 Canadians say it’s important to them the dairy, eggs, chicken and turkey they buy come from Canada.
89% of Canadians say it’s important to them to purchase dairy, eggs, chicken and turkey products from Canada, including 38% who say it is extremely important. This value is held across demographics throughout the country and supported by a strong majority of voters from all major political parties. Buying Canadian is of greater importance to Canadians from lower income households.
Canadians place even greater importance on having a made-in-Canada system that can support the demand for domestic products.
97% feel it is important Canada has strong, domestic food supply chains that allow us to produce enough food to feed Canadians all year round.
Over half (53%) say this is extremely important. Support is strong across demographics (strongest among older Canadians) and across the country. This is also of greater importance to Canadians from lower income households.
Similarly, Canadians feel strongly about a food system that has rigorous standards and procedures for health and safety. 94% of Canadians say it’s important to them that the food they eat comes from a farm with a mandatory, audited food safety and animal care programs- 44% say this is extremely important to them. This is similarly important for Canadians across the country, and across the political spectrum.
94% of Canadians also consider it a good thing when they hear that a food is produced by a farmer that operates under Canada’s system of supply management, which includes mandatory food safety and animal welfare standards.
Strongest among women, older Canadians, and those in Atlantic Canada, a majority of Canadians across demographics hold this view. Among Liberal, Conservative and NDP supporters a majority consider this to be a ‘very good thing’.
92% of Canadians agree they feel confident in the food safety and animal welfare standards used in dairy, chicken, turkey and egg farming in Canada because of supply management. 94% of Canadians also prefer their dairy, eggs, chicken, and turkey products to be produced locally and in Canada under supply management. Sentiment is strongest among older Canadians but a clear majority of Canadians across the country, age groups, and political support feel the same way.
Domestic food security and fostering a safe supply of staple food products are of utmost importance to Canadians- especially those who may experience food security challenges. The vast majority of Canadians feel it is important to have a strong domestic food supply chain and have mandatory audits and food safety protocols on farms. 9 in 10 Canadians say it’s important for them to purchase made-in-Canada chicken, turkey, eggs and dairy products.
We also find strong support for Canada’s supply management system- across the country and across party lines a majority of Canadians consider supply management to be a good thing and instills trust in Canadian farmers.
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
This survey was paid for by Chicken Farmers of Canada, Egg Farmers of Canada, Dairy Farmers of Canada, Turkey Farmers of Canada and the Canadian Hatching Egg Producers.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data a mené un sondage en ligne pancanadien pour les Producteurs de poulet du Canada, les Producteurs d’œufs du Canada, les Producteurs laitiers du Canada, les Éleveurs de dindon du Canada et les Producteurs d’œufs d’incubation du Canada. Ce sondage avait pour but de recueillir les points de vue des Canadiens et Canadiennes sur le système alimentaire et la gestion de l’offre de produits laitiers, d’œufs, de poulet et de dinde au Canada. Le sondage a été mené du 9 au 11 novembre 2023 auprès d’un échantillon de 2 000 adultes canadiens.
Les Canadiens accordent énormément d’importance au maintien d’un approvisionnement intérieur robuste et stable de produits laitiers, d’œufs, de poulet et de dinde.
9 Canadiens sur 10 disent qu’il est important pour eux que les produits laitiers, les œufs, le poulet et la dinde qu’ils achètent viennent du Canada.
89 % des Canadiens disent qu’il est important pour eux que les produits laitiers, les œufs, le poulet et la dinde qu’ils achètent viennent du Canada, dont 38 % qui disent que cela est extrêmement important pour eux. Cette proportion se maintient à l’échelle de tous les groupes démographiques aux quatre coins du pays et est soutenue par une forte majorité des électeurs de tous les principaux partis politiques. Les Canadiens des ménages à revenu plus faible accordent encore plus d’importance à l’achat de produits canadiens.
Il est encore plus important pour les Canadiens d’avoir un système « produit au Canada » capable de soutenir la demande de produits nationaux.
97 % croient qu’il est important que le Canada ait une chaîne d’approvisionnement alimentaire nationale robuste qui nous permet de produire suffisamment de nourriture pour alimenter les Canadiens à longueur d’année.
Plus de la moitié (53 %) est de l’avis que cela est extrêmement important. L’on note un degré élevé de soutien parmi tous les groupes démographiques (notamment parmi les Canadiens plus âgés) à l’échelle du pays. Les Canadiens des ménages à revenu plus faible accordent encore plus d’importance à ce point.
Dans un même ordre d’idées, les Canadiens tiennent fermement à ce que le système alimentaire ait des normes et procédures rigoureuses en matière de santé et de sécurité. 94 % des Canadiens disent qu’il est important pour eux que la nourriture qu’ils consomment vienne d’une ferme ayant des programmes rigoureux et vérifiés de sécurité alimentaire et de bien-être des animaux, dont 44 % qui disent que cela est extrêmement important pour eux. Les Canadiens de tout le pays et de toutes les affiliations politiques y accordent un degré semblable d’importance.
94 % des Canadiens estiment également que c’est une bonne chose lorsqu’ils entendent qu’un aliment a été produit par un producteur soumis au système de gestion de l’offre du Canada qui impose notamment des normes obligatoires relatives à la salubrité alimentaire et au bien-être des animaux.
Ce sentiment est particulièrement fort parmi les femmes, les Canadiens plus âgés et les résidents de l’Atlantique; une majorité des Canadiens de tous les groupes démographiques sont de cet avis. De plus, la majorité des partisans libéraux, conservateurs et néo-démocratiques sont de l’avis que cela est une « très bonne chose ».
La gestion de l’offre incite les consommateurs canadiens à faire confiance à nos agriculteurs.
92 % des Canadiens disent qu’ils font confiance aux normes en matière de salubrité alimentaire et de bien-être des animaux en vigueur dans le secteur de la production laitière et de l’élevage de poulet, de dinde et d’œufs au Canada à cause de la gestion de l’offre. 94 % des Canadiens préfèrent que leurs produits laitiers, leur poulet, leur dinde et leurs œufs soient de provenance locale; produits au Canada et assujettis à un système de gestion de l’offre. Bien que ce sentiment soit particulièrement fort parmi les Canadiens plus âgés, une majorité nette de Canadiens de tout le pays, de tous les âges et de toutes les affiliations politiques se sentent ainsi.
Les Canadiens, notamment ceux et celles susceptibles de connaître des problèmes de sécurité alimentaire, attachent une importance capitale à la sécurité alimentaire et à l’établissement d’un approvisionnement sûr d’aliments de base. Plus de 90 % des Canadiens croient qu’il est important d’avoir une chaîne d’approvisionnement alimentaire nationale robuste et de soumettre les fermes à des protocoles et des vérifications obligatoires en matière de sécurité alimentaire. Neuf Canadiens sur dix disent qu’il est important pour eux d’acheter du poulet, de la dinde, des œufs et des produits laitiers produits au Canada.
Nous avons également noté un degré élevé de soutien pour le système de gestion de l’offre du Canada. La majorité des Canadiens de tout le pays et de toutes les affiliations politiques estiment que la gestion de l’offre est une bonne chose et qu’elle incite les gens à faire confiance aux producteurs canadiens.
Ce sondage a été payé parles Producteurs de poulet du Canada, les Producteurs d’œufs du Canada, les Producteurs laitiers du Canada, les Éleveurs de dindon du Canada et les Producteurs d’œufs d’incubation du Canada.
Abacus Data est la seule firme de recherche et stratégie qui aide les organisations à gérer les risques perturbateurs et tirer profit des débouchés dans un monde où la démographie et la technologie évoluent à un rythme jamais vu.
Nous sommes un cabinet-conseil de recherche sur l’opinion publique et le marketing innovateur et en pleine croissance. Nous misons sur les technologies les plus récentes, des principes scientifiques solides et notre vaste expérience pour fournir des conseils de première qualité fondés sur la recherche à nos clients. Abacus Data offre une capacité de recherche mondiale et privilégie le service à la clientèle, la minutie et la fourniture d’une valeur exceptionnelle.
Nous avons donné suite au record exceptionnel que nous avons établi en 2019 en devenant l’un des sondeurs les plus précis ayant mené des recherches lors de l’élection canadienne tenue en 2021.
From November 22 to 28, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 BC adults exploring their views on provincial politics and government. This survey was part of a special provincial Omnibus survey.
If an election was held at the time of the survey, the BC NDP would likely win another large majority government. The BC NDP has the support of 44% of committed voters, a four point drop from its 2020 election tally. The BC Conservatives are second with 26% followed by the official opposition BC United at 17%. Compared with the 2020 provincial election, the BC Conservatives led by John Rustad are up 24-points while BC United (previously known as the BC Liberal Party) is down 17-points. The BC Greens are at 9%, down 6-points since the election.
Regionally, the BC NDP is ahead by 22-points in Metro Vancouver, by 27-points on Vancouver Island, and statistically tied with the BC Conservatives in the Interior and North.
Interestingly, the BC NDP is ahead by 30 points among those aged 45 and over but only ahead by 3 among those under 45. The BC Conservatives do 12-points better among younger BCers than older ones.
The BC NDP leads by 24 among women (49% to 25% for the BC Conservatives) and 12-points among men (40% to 28% for the BC Conservatives).
Why is the NDP and Premier David Eby in such a dominant position?
British Columbians are generally more optimistic about the direction of their province than Canadians in other provinces. In our survey, 34% of British Columbians feel the province is headed in the right direction which is 10-points higher than a recent survey we did in Ontario and 11-points higher than how Canadians feel about their own country.
At the same time, the Eby government’s approval rating is net positive. 36% approve while 27% disapprove. Another 27% say they neither approve nor disapprove of the government’s performance.
In terms of leader impressions, Premier Eby is by far the most popular provincial party leader. 39% have a positive impression while 25% have a negative view. In comparison, BC United Leader Kevin Falcon is net -10 with 20% positive and 30% negative. BC Greens Leader Sonia Fursteanu is even with 23% positive and 23% negative while BC Conservative Leader John Rustad is -2 with 25% positive and 27% negative. Both Rustad and Furstenau are both less well known that Eby or Falcon.
Finally, when we ask people to rate the top two issues they want the provincial government to most prioritize, 54% select the rising cost of living, 37% want the focus to be on housing while 31% select improving the healthcare system.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data founder, Chair & CEO, David Coletto: So far, the Eby NDP government has been ammune to the inflationitis that has inflicted by the federal government and several provincial governments across the country. The Premier is both well liked and his government is seen as performing relatively well. With a divided opposition, including a very weak Official Opposition in the BC United, the BC NDP are well positioned for the provincial election in 2024.
Support for the BC Conservatives has shot up quickly given the party received only 2% of the vote in the 2020 provincial election. The BC Greens are also under pressure having lost more than a third of its past support.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 adults (18+) living in British Columbia from November 22 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched BC’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Join Abacus Data as an Analyst & Fielding Specialist
Location:
Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa & Toronto. A team member can be based anywhere in Canada but preference for the Analyst role will be given to candidates who can commute to an office at least once a week.
Compensation:
Salary: $45,000 to $65,000 of total compensation is typical for this role. However the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
When we grow, you grow. As a member of our team you are eligible for an annual performance bonus based on the overall performance of the company and your part in it.
Expected start date:
Late January- early February 2023, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity:
Abacus Data is expanding and we’re looking for someone who is excited to learn and grow in a fast-paced, dynamic work environment. If you’re early in your career, curious to learn new things, thoughtful, detail-oriented, and most importantly, friendly, this could be a great fit for you.
We are looking for a team member to join our field and analysis team. Working with our Director of Field and Analysis and research team leads, you will be responsible for programming surveys, working with datasets, managing samples, and helping build beautiful and impactful reports and presentations.
As an ideal candidate, you have some background in social research, having taken a class or two in university or college, and maybe even worked in the industry for a few years. But more importantly, you want to learn and grow in a job that will expose you to all aspects of our work. We want a team member who loves to solve problems, find creative ways of doing things, and likes checking off to-do lists.
Responsibilities:
• Support the Director of Field and Analysis in programming surveys, coordinating logistics for qualitative research, fielding sample, testing surveys, coordinating translation, managing data sets, and building presentations and report charts/tables.
• Support the research team with initial data analysis and report building.
Requirements:
Apply by December 22nd at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this role, please send a cover letter and CV to Ihor Korbabicz at ihor@abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 252375 – Analyst & Fielding Specialist” in the subject line. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
Join Abacus Data as a Consultant / Senior Consultant
Location:
Abacus Data operates offices in Ottawa & Toronto. A Consultant can be based anywhere in Canada but will need to be able to commute to Ontario for an initial orientation and other occasional travel for corporate events.
Compensation:
Salary: $65,000 to $85,000 of total compensation is typical for a Consultant role. However the compensation package may be increased or decreased to be commensurate with experience.
When we grow, you grow. As a member of our team you are eligible for an annual performance bonus based on the overall performance of the company and your part in it.
Expected start date:
Late January- early February 2023, or at such a time as a suitable candidate is found.
The opportunity:
At Abacus Data, a premier Canadian public opinion research & strategy agency, we are looking to capitalize on explosive growth by adding to our research team.
In these roles, you will work closely with the firm’s executive team to help service the firm’s growing roster of public and private sector clients, with abundant opportunities to take on clients on your own & job craft a research specialization as the company grows.
In the immediate term, this role will see you work on research files with the supervision of a senior lead, acting as the principal author & project manager of Abacus’ custom research survey projects.
The Consultant is responsible for assisting team leads in managing client relationships, overseeing the survey fielding & reporting process, and writing compelling, timely and strategic research reports based on public opinion survey results.
Responsibilities:
Requirements:
The most important criteria for this role is a strong public affairs writing background with a demonstrable ability to understand data, think strategically and synthesize ideas. If you can demonstrate proficiency here but have no survey research experience, we would be thrilled to hear from you.
Bilingualism in English and French is not a requirement and will not be an impediment to your application, but please clearly specify if you are.
Apply by December 22nd at 5pm ET.
If you think you’re the right candidate for this role, please send a cover letter and CV to Ihor Korbabicz at ihor@abacusdata.ca referencing “Job 852375 – Consultant/Senior Consultant” in the subject line. Only those selected for the next round of the process will be contacted.
From November 23 to November 28, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,417 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share new data on:
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 23%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 32% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives are up 3 while every other party is down 1 point. The 19-point Conservative Party lead over the Liberals is the largest lead we have measured for the Conservatives since the Liberals were elected in 2015.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 15 in Atlantic Canada and by 13 in Ontario. In Quebec, we find the BQ ahead by 4 with the Conservatives and Liberals statistically tied. This is the second time in a month that we have measured the Conservatives numerically ahead of the Liberals in Quebec.
Introducing Abacus Data MRP A game-changing tool for GR, advocacy, and digital campaign targeting. A must for anyone in GR, campaigning, advertising, digital public affairs
Find out more
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 12 among 18 to 29 year olds, 21 among 30 to 44 year olds,23 among 45 to 59 year olds and 20 among those aged 60 and over.
When we ask people if they would consider voting for each of the main political parties, 54% say they are open to voting Conservative while 42 are open to voting Liberal, 41% NDP, 27% for the Greens, and 20% for the People’s Party. In Quebec, 49% say they are open to voting BQ.
Over the past few months, the gap between the Conservative and Liberal accessible voter pools has increased to the point where the Conservative pool is 12-points larger than that of the Liberals
Other Underlying Opinions
Beyond vote intention, our latest survey finds little change in other key items we track.
The federal government’s approval rating is largely unchanged with 27% approving and 57% disapproving.
When it comes to federal party leader impressions, Pierre Poilievre is currently the only party leader with a net favourable impression. Currently 39% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader while 33% have a negative impression for a net score of +6.
Justin Trudeau’s net favourable is largely unchanged. Today, 28% have a positive impression compared with 56% who have a negative one for a net score of -28.
Jagmeet Singh, whose net impression has shifted from positive to negative over the past few weeks, finds 34% with a positive view and 35% with a negative view with a net score of -1.
To assess momentum, we ask people whether their impression of each leader is getting better, worse, or not changing over the past few weeks. Despite what some have said was a bad week for Mr. Poilievre, there doesn’t appear to be much of evidence of the public shifting their impressions. In fact, the net momentum scores are largely the same for each leader as they were earlier in November.
85% of Canadians would like to see a change in government with 52% feeling there is a good alternative to the Liberals available and 32% feeling there isn’t, despite a desire for change. Today, only 15% of Canadians believe Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected, down 6 points since we first asking this question in June (and before the cabinet shuffle).
All five outcomes offer the Liberals some hope that they could rebuild their winning coalition, but there’s no clear silver bullet, including the Prime Minister stepping down as leader before the next election. It’s likely a combination of these will need to happen to overcome the desire for change people are feeling.
Top Issues
The rising cost of living remains a top issue to 3 in 4 Canadians. Housing affordability has risen to the second most ranked issue (+3 since August) while healthcare has fallen to second place. Of note, while 1 in 5 Canadians rate climate change as one of their top 3 issues, it is down 8 points since August.
When those who rate an issue are asked which party is best able to handle it, the Conservatives lead the Liberals by 22 points on the cost of living, 16 among those who care about housing affordability, and 12 points among those who care about healthcare. They also have a 31-point advantage among those who think the economy is one of their top 3 issues.
Climate change is the only issue in which the Liberals lead other parties – with an 16-point advantage over the Conservatives among those who care about the issue.
The NDP has a 12-point advantage over the Liberals on housing and a 15-point advantage on inequality and poverty.
Finally, when we ask people whther Justin Trudeau or Pierre Poilievre is better able to handle several issues or scenarios, Poilievre leads on all except for climate change.
Poilievre has a 25-point lead on keeping taxes as low as possible, a 23-point lead on the economy, a 20-point lead on making life more affordable, and a 18-point lead on who would be best to deal with another Trump presidency.
Poilievre’s advantage over Trudeau is smaller when it comes to healthcare and childcare. On climate action, Trudeau has a small 3-point lead over Poilievre.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Conservatives continue to gain over the Liberals, with their national lead rising to its largest in our tracking. The Liberals are trailing across every demographic group and in every region of the country – including Quebec.
While Trudeau’s impression remains decidedly negative, Poilievre is the only leader with a net favourable impression.
More importantly perhaps – on the key issues – whether it’s the cost of living, housing, healthcare, or the economy – the Conservative Party and the Conservative leader has a big advantage over the Liberals.
Even on climate change, Trudeau’s advantage over Poilievre is limited – 3 points and those who rate the issue as a top priority has fallen eight points since August.
Ultimately, I believe strongly that most voters ultimately vote for the party that they believe will best handle the issue they care most about. As scarcity becomes the primary concen for most people, the Conservatives have appealed more to these voters and find themselves in the most favourable position they have been in a long time. You have to go back to late 2008 to find a time when the Conservative Party was regularly polling around 40%.
Want to join our team or know someone should?
We are looking to fill two roles as our company grows rapidly.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,417 Canadian adults from November 23 to November 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.0%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
From November 23 to 28, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,500 Ontario adults exploring their views on provincial politics and government. This survey was part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
Introducing Abacus Data MRP A game-changing tool for GR, advocacy, and digital campaign targeting. A must for anyone in GR, campaigning, advertising, digital public affairs
Find out more
Ontario’s political scene is currently a fascinating study in resilience, redemption, and opportunity.
The Progressive Conservative Party, under Doug Ford’s leadership, has reversed a drop in support and currently has almost a 20-point lead in vote intention, despite recent controversies, notably the Greenbelt land swap issue. The Ontario Liberal Party, meanwhile, is on the cusp of a potentially transformative leadership change, poised to reshape its future.
PC’s Steady Ascendancy and Regional Dominance
If an election were held today, the PCs would likely clinch another majority with 42% of committed voters’ support, reflecting a significant rebound from their lowest point in September. This 8-point recovery is not just a numerical uptick; it’s a testament to the party’s strategic recalibrations and Premier Ford’s ability to apologize and for a sizeable portion of his supporters and non-supporters to accept his mistakes and move on.
Analyzing the data demographically and regionally, the PCs lead convincingly across almost all groups. The only exception is the under-30 demographic, where they are neck-and-neck with the NDP and Liberals. This widespread appeal across various segments of society underscores the party’s successful outreach and policy resonance with a diverse electorate.
Public Perception of Doug Ford and Policy Decisions
In terms of leadership perception, 32% approve of Doug Ford’s job performance, with a notable decrease in disapproval ratings. This shift indicates a recovering confidence in his governance, further bolstered by a 7-point increase since October in Ontarians who believe Ford prioritizes the province’s interests over personal or partisan gains.
The Greenbelt land swap controversy has been a pivotal issue, initially met with widespread opposition. However, the government’s decision to reverse this plan and return the land to the Greenbelt was met with overwhelming approval, demonstrating Ford’s ability to respond to public sentiment and potentially mitigate political fallout.
Political Calculations and Public Trust
The perception of political motivation behind Ford’s reversal decision is significant, with a majority viewing it as a move to alleviate political pressure. However, nearly half of Ontarians also perceive recent government decisions as indicative of Ford’s willingness to accept responsibility, a sentiment strongly shared among PC voters. This duality of public perception highlights the complex interplay between political strategy and leadership accountability.
Liberal Leadership Race: Limited Engagement but Bonnie Crombie is by far the most well known candidate
In the backdrop of these developments, the Ontario Liberal Party’s leadership race is unfolding with Bonnie Crombie emerging as the expected winner and most well known. Despite limited public engagement in the race, those aware of it overwhelmingly view Crombie as the likely winner. Her double-fold name recognition advantage over other candidates places her in a uniquely advantageous position, potentially revitalizing the Liberals’ prospects.
Ontario Liberal Leadership Race & the PC dominance: A More Competitive Environment with Bonnie Crombie?
As the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) prepares to announce its new leader, the spotlight intensifies on the potential candidates, particularly Bonnie Crombie. Her presence in the race brings a dynamic shift. With Crombie at the helm, the survey suggests the gap between the Liberals and PCs could narrow significantly, trimming the PCs’ lead to just 8 points. Crombie’s name recognition and political experience mark her as not just a viable contender but a potential threat to Ford’s stronghold.
The Upshot:
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Ontario political landscape is currently characterized by the PCs’ resilient popularity and strategic adaptability under Doug Ford’s leadership. The party’s recovery and sustained support across diverse demographics highlight how resilient Ford’s brand is in weathering the Greenbelt storm.
Moreover, Ford’s ability to maintain support amidst global inflation can be largely attributed to his longstanding commitment to taxpayer interests. Throughout his political career, Ford has consistently championed policies aimed at reducing financial burdens on the public. Key measures such as lowering taxes, eliminating fees for services like license plate renewals, and removing tolls from highways have resonated positively with his supporters.
These actions have reinforced his image as a leader dedicated to easing the financial strain on citizens, which is particularly significant during periods of economic hardship. While inflation has posed challenges for many incumbent governments, Ford’s consistent focus on financial relief has helped prevent the alienation of his support base, setting him apart from other leaders who have struggled under similar economic pressures. This approach has not only solidified his existing support but also potentially attracted voters who prioritize fiscal conservatism and government actions that directly alleviate personal financial burdens.
The impending leadership change in the Ontario Liberal Party, especially with Bonnie Crombie’s candidacy, introduces an element of competitiveness and potential political transformation.
We may be heading back to a more competitive political environment, especially if Bonnie Crombie wins the leadership. She is by far the greatest threat at the moment to Ford and the PCs in large part because of her name recognition advantage over the other three candidates.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario adults from November 23 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.6%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
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From November 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of immigration in Canada today. In this survey, we explored public perspectives shaping the national dialogue on immigration and compare results from a similar survey we conducted in July 2023.
The results indicate that public concern about Canada’s immigration targets as concerns about housing, healthcare capacity, and growth overwhelm the perceived benefits of immigration.
As Canada prepares to welcome almost 500,000 new immigrants in 2024, the results reveal a notable lack of awareness among Canadians regarding the current immigration targets. Specifically, only 31% of Canadians are informed about the immigration targets set for 2024. Half of Canadians believe that Canada will welcome fewer than 200,000 immigrants in the upcoming year. These findings underscore a widespread lack of awareness regarding the volume of new immigrants Canada is expecting to welcome in 2024.
Two in three Canadians (67%) believe the current immigration target is too high, increasing by 6-points increase since July. More disconcerting is the fact that 2 in 5 Canadians deem the anticipated number of new immigrants as “way too high,” with only 2% considering it too low. These findings emphasize a mounting concern regarding Canada’s immigration targets.
There is a correlation between age and perspectives on immigration targets, as older Canadians (60+; 74% and 45 to 59; 71% consider it too high) are more likely to think the target is too high compared to their younger counterparts (18-29; 54% consider it too high). Additionally, political affiliations play a substantial role, with 82% of Conservative Party voters in the last federal election thinking the target is too high, 20-points higher than Liberal Party voters. Nevertheless, despite the difference in opinion across the political spectrum, a majority of all party supporters think the current immigration target is too high, suggesting a cross-partisan consensus is forming.
Most Canadians believe the immigration population in their community is growing – with about 4 in 10 thinking it is growing significantly (up from 35% in July), while 23% note a moderate rise (slightly down from 24% in July) in immigration. Overall, this suggests that 3 in 5 Canadians believe that the new immigrant population in their communities is growing (moderately to significantly).
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Additionally, regarding perceptions of immigration needs, 47% indicated their community requires fewer immigrants than the current influx, marking a 6-point increase since July (41%). In Ontario, 52% believe their community needs fewer new immigrants, compared to 36% in Quebec. It is noteworthy that Quebecers are more likely to say their community needs more immigrant than Canadians in other regions of the country (QC 25% vs. ROC 13%).
Canadian opinion on immigration is quite rational. On the one hand, many Canadians believe that the immigration targets will have positive impacts on business investment, labour shortages, and economic growth. On the other, majorities believe the immigration targets will have a negative impact on housing affordability and availability, healthcare, and congestion.
We also note a noticeable decline in positive perceptions since July. Specifically, an increasing number of Canadians express doubts about positive impacts on the availability of workers, fostering economic growth, access to healthcare, crime and safety, congestion, and housing affordability. This dynamic shift underscores a changing narrative, as Canadians grapple with perceived negative repercussions of the influx of new immigrants on various aspects of their daily lives.
When examining key demographics, results reveal that younger Canadians exhibit a higher inclination to believe that the influx of new immigrants will yield positive impacts across various aspects. This trend is also observed among those who cast their votes for the Liberal Party in the 2021 elections. On the contrary, older Canadians, particularly those aged 45-59 and 60+, and individuals who supported the Conservative Party in the 2021 elections, are more prone to the belief that the arrival of new immigrants has predominantly negative effects across all areas.
Only 24% of Canadians hold the view that the present level of immigration is contributing positively to the country (vs. 28% in July), with a notable 43% expressing the belief that it is adversely affecting Canada (vs. 36% in July). The breakdown of these perspectives reveals that younger Canadians and Liberal Party voters tend to see immigration as having a positive on Canada, with 32% of those aged 18-29 and 35% of Liberal voters believing it makes the country better off. In contrast, older Canadians and Conservative Party voters are more inclined to perceive immigration as having negative consequences, with only 18% of those aged 45-49 and 18% of Conservative voters thinking it makes Canada better off.
For a long time, it was conventional wisdom that Canada is unique among peer nations in our openness and acceptance of immigration. But as this survey highlights, conventional wisdom is being challenged. As a scarcity mindset sets in, concerns about the availability and affordability of housing, capacity of the healthcare system, and possibly a recession approach are causing people to reassess the appropriateness of such ambitious immigration targets. This survey highlights the fluidity and dynamism inherent in public opinion.
The intricate interplay between age, political affiliations, and perceptions of community impact highlights the imperative need for nuanced discussions on immigration policy that account for the diverse perspectives within the Canadian population.
We will continue to track these opinions over time and explore other aspects of immigration.
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.