With less than a week to go in the campaign, a new poll from Abacus Data finds the Liberals leading by 3 among all committed eligible voters and those who have voted and by 5 among those who are most certain to vote and those who have voted in an advance poll.

This survey was conducted entirely after the two leaders’ debates held last week and interviewed 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote from April 18 to 21, 2025.

Overall, the data suggest that not much has changed over the weekend and following the two debates. Mark Carney remains the most popular federal party leader. The Liberals continue to have the largest pool of accessible voters, and regionally, the Liberals have leads in British Columbia, Ontairo, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The data continues to suggest that the Liberals have a clear advantage and remain the favourites to win the election.

National and Regional Vote

Nationally, the Liberals sit at 40% among all decided voters, with the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP remains in third place at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois is at 6% nationally. Note, this includes both those who have already voted and those who are decided about who they will vote for.

Since last week, the Liberal and NDP vote share is unchanged while the Conservative vote share is down 1 point.

When we look at voters most certain to cast a ballot and those who already have—an indicator that can better approximate actual turnout—the Liberals open up a 5-point lead over the Conservatives with 42% voting Liberal compared to 37% for the Conservatives. The NDP get 10% of the most certain vote group.

Despite the overall narrowing, the regional picture still shows areas of Liberal strength:

British Columbia: The Liberals have opened up a 9-point lead over the Conservatives (42% to 33%) with the NDP at 15%.

Ontario: The Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points, a smaller gap than we have seen over the last two waves.

Quebec: Here, the Liberals stand at 33%, compared to the Bloc’s 30% and the Conservatives’ 26%. This is the smallest gap we’ve seen in Quebec since the campaign began.

Desire for Change Holds

Despite a clear desire for change, support for the incumbent Liberals remains remarkably resilient. In our latest data, 55% of Canadians say it’s “definitely time for a change in government”—a high number, but only slightly above the 50% threshold recorded in the final polls before several recent elections, including the 2021 federal contest. At the same time, 23% now say it’s “definitely best” to keep the Liberals in office, matching the highest level recorded during this campaign. This is important context: historically, elections with a similar desire for change—such as the 2021 federal vote or the 2024 Nova Scotia election—have not always resulted in the incumbent being defeated. With that 23% firmly behind the Liberals and much of the rest of the electorate split between opposition options, the appetite for change may not be intense or unified enough to deny the governing Liberals another mandate.

Leader Impressions: Carney Still Has Best Image, Poilievre’s Negatives Rise

Mark Carney continues to hold the strongest personal brand among the major party leaders. His positive impressions now sit at 46%, while 33% of Canadians view him negatively. Carney performs especially well among older voters and in key battleground regions like Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where his positive numbers exceed 50%. Among Liberal supporters, his image is overwhelmingly positive, but he also finds support among a notable share of NDP voters—suggesting that he’s not only inherited the Liberal base but is also attracting progressive voters looking to stop a Conservative government. It’s also noteworthy that men have a more favourable impression of him than women.

Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers, on the other hand, continue to pose a challenge for his campaign. While 39% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, 46% view him negatively—his highest negative rating since the campaign began. His support remains concentrated in Alberta and among committed Conservative voters, but he struggles with older Canadians, women, and voters in Quebec. In Ontario—a region critical to any path to victory—his negatives are climbing, and he has been unable to chip away at Carney’s regional lead. The gender gap in his appeal is also stark: men are more evenly split, while a clear majority of women view him negatively.

Jagmeet Singh’s image has remained flat throughout much of the campaign. Currently, 32% of Canadians say they have a positive view of him, while 39% are negative. His support is strongest among younger Canadians and core NDP partisans, but he has not been able to broaden his appeal beyond that base. With little movement in his favourability over the past month, Singh appears to be stuck in place.

On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney leads Poilievre by six points (41% vs. 35%)—a gap that’s narrowed from nine points last week.

Changing Salience of Key Issues: Trump Slides, Cost of Living Climbs

As the campaign enters its final days, affordability remains the top issue on Canadians’ minds. Forty-nine percent now rank reducing the cost of living among their top two priorities—a three-point increase from the previous wave and a six-point increase over two weeks. This concern spans all age groups, but is especially prominent among voters aged 30 to 59.

Meanwhile, the salience of dealing with Donald Trump has declined slightly, down one point to 32% and down 4 since two weeks ago. While still a major issue, it no longer dominates the political conversation in the way it did earlier in the campaign. That shift may be giving the Conservatives a bit more room to press their affordability message, but not enough to fundamentally shift the dynamics.

Despite Trump’s slightly diminished salience, the issue continues to be one of the most defining electoral cleavages. Among those who rank dealing with Trump as one of their top two concerns, the Liberals hold a massive 40-point lead over the Conservatives—60% to 20%. No other issue creates this kind of partisan gulf. Even though fewer voters are making their decision based on the Trump factor, those who do are overwhelmingly choosing the Liberals. This helps explain why the Liberals remain competitive even as the focus shifts toward affordability—because the Trump issue is disproportionately salient among older, high-turnout voters.

At the same time, the Conservatives continue to hold a narrow edge among those most focused on affordability. Among voters prioritizing cost of living, 43% plan to vote Conservative, but 32% still back the Liberals and 11% support the NDP. It’s not the kind of dominant lead the Conservatives once hoped for—especially given how central this issue has been to their campaign. Even on housing affordability and the economy, the Liberal brand has improved. On who would do the best job growing the economy, the Liberals lead by five points. On housing, Conservatives lead by five, but that margin is shrinking.

When voters are asked more broadly who would best handle key issues, the Liberals outperform on most. Carney’s team leads on Trump, international relations, and unity, and is essentially tied on healthcare. The Conservatives have a slight advantage on the cost of living while the Liberals have a similar sized advantage on the economy. The salience of Trump may be fading, but the Liberals’ dominance among those who still care deeply about it remains one of the strongest vote predictors in the campaign.

Shift in Voter Framing: “Change” vs. “Trump”

One of the most important developments late in the campaign is the evolving way voters are framing the ballot question. At the end of March, more Canadians said they would cast their vote based on which party could best handle Donald Trump’s impact on Canada. But in our most recent surveys that has flipped back. Fifty-six per cent now say the more decisive factor is which party can deliver a change in direction and policy, while only 44% say it’s about who can manage the Trump threat. That’s a 10-point swing over the course of the election The shift reflects a return to economic bread-and-butter issues as a more dominant lens, especially as Canadians finish voting during the final stretch of the campaign.

However, even with the Trump frame declining in salience, it remains a powerful predictor of vote choice. Among those who continue to prioritize Trump’s impact on Canada, the Liberals hold a massive lead—60% say they will vote Liberal, compared to just 19% for the Conservatives. In contrast, among those focused on affordability, the race tightens. The Conservatives lead that group 51% to 25% over the Liberals, with the NDP at 12% among those who say their primary choice is about change.

But the Liberal vote in this affordability-focused group is more resilient than expected, particularly given how central cost-of-living issues have been to the Conservative campaign. Similarly, when the election is framed as a choice between affordability and Trump, affordability wins by a wider margin but the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is lower – the Conservatives only lead by 16.

Regionally and demographically, the frame matters. In Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Trump frame remains relatively strong, contributing to the Liberal vote advantage in both regions. Among older voters, who are more likely to see Trump as a central concern, the Liberal advantage persists, even as affordability rises in importance. Meanwhile, younger Canadians overwhelmingly frame the election as about change or the cost of living. What this all points to is a ballot question in flux—but with core voter segments locked into the Liberals when the conversation is about global risk and leadership, while the Conservatives only gain ground when the lens narrows strictly to affordability. That tension has helped sustain the Liberal lead in vote intention, even as the economic frame dominates the campaign’s final week.

Liberals Still Seen as the Likely Winners

Despite the tightening of the horse race and a growing demand for change, 48% of Canadians say they expect the Liberals to win the election, an increase of one point since last week. Meanwhile, 32% believe the Conservatives will come out on top—unchanged over the same period.

Leaders’ Debate Reaction

Canadians tuned in to the debates in modest numbers, with 47% saying they watched at least some of the English-language leaders’ debate and 33% reporting they did the same for the French debate. Another third heard about them through media or word of mouth. These numbers suggest the debates reached a sizable, though not overwhelming, share of the electorate—and, as the data show, the impact on impressions was incremental, not transformational.

Among those who engaged with the debates, Mark Carney came out slightly ahead of Pierre Poilievre in both languages, earning 37% of the vote for best performance in the English debate compared to Poilievre’s 34%, and 26% in the French debate versus 29% for Poilievre. However, the most striking figure may be the large share of viewers who said no one really earned their vote: 16% in English and 26% in French. This reinforces the idea that the debates largely confirmed existing leanings rather than shifting voter preferences.

Looking at impressions, Carney consistently left more positive marks than his rivals. In the English debate, 52% of viewers said he made a positive impression—six points ahead of Poilievre, who also generated more negative reactions (29% vs. Carney’s 23%). Among francophone Quebecers, Yves-François Blanchet led on positive impressions at 59%, but Carney still edged Poilievre in net favourability (41% positive, 23% negative vs. Poilievre’s 47% positive, 29% negative). Overall, these numbers suggest Carney effectively maintained his leadership brand through the debates, while Poilievre was unable to shift the race in his favour.

The Upshot

With just days remaining before election day, our latest tracking suggests the trajectory of the campaign remains largely unchanged. Despite a shift in how voters are framing their decision—more now clearly say affordability is their top concern rather than Donald Trump’s impact on Canada—the Liberals continue to hold a modest but durable lead. The televised leaders’ debates last week, expected to be pivotal moments, appear to have done little to reshape public opinion. And the early read from the long weekend, when nearly a quarter of Canadians say they cast their ballot, shows that impressions solidified before the debates and holiday gatherings have largely stuck. The race, in other words, is still playing out on familiar ground—with the Liberals narrowly ahead.

What’s holding this Liberal advantage together is the largely positive appeal of Mark Carney. Although a majority of Canadians still say they want change, many also say they like Carney and see him as best equipped to manage the risks posed by Donald Trump. That internal tension—between wanting to punish the Liberals for past performance and feeling reassured by Carney’s leadership—is creating space for the Liberals to win, even in a change election. Carney’s favourables remain the strongest of any major leader, and among those prioritizing stability and leadership, he has become the clear choice.

The Conservatives still have a path forward, but it’s a narrowing one. Affordability remains a potent issue, especially among middle-aged voters, and the Conservatives continue to lead among those who see it as their top concern. But it hasn’t been enough to tip the race. The Liberals remain better positioned regionally, with double-digit leads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, competitive support in Quebec and British Columbia, and a more motivated and committed base. Unless the Conservatives can engineer a major momentum shift in the final stretch, the early vote and polling trends suggest the Liberals still hold the advantage—and it’s one built on leadership impressions, turnout readiness, and the right vote efficiency in the ridings that matter most.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

At 8:30 p.m. Eastern, as the English‑language leaders’ debate was close to wrapping up in Montréal, our team at Abacus Data pushed a national, English‑only survey into field. Within roughly ninety minutes we captured responses from a representative sample of 1,200 Canadian adults.

We asked every participant whether they had watched “all or most,” “some,” or “a little” of the debate, or not at all, and we analyse results through that lens. But the time‑zone spread, the English‑only questionnaire, and rapid turnaround all argue for caution: the numbers are instructive, not definitive. Still, they showcase how quickly the Abacus Data team can move to capture reaction to an important event like tonight’s debate.

In total, 602 people in our sample said they watched at least a little of the leaders’ debate.

Overall, as of 10:00pm ET, 51% of Canadians said they watched at least “a little” of the debate, and 39% claimed to have seen “all” or “most” of it. Somewhat surprisingly, there wasn’t a big difference in viewership by age. 36% of those aged 18 to 44 said they watched at least some of it, 37% of those aged 45 to 59, and 45% of those aged 60 and over said they watched some or most of it.

Of those who watched, traditional television still dominated: 64% caught the debate on a conventional TV feed, compared with 19% who streamed it online, 13% who streamed through social media, and 3% who listened on the radio.

First impressions: who shone, who stumbled

When we asked debate viewers whether each leader left a positive, neutral, or negative impression, the verdict tilted toward Mark Carney. Fully 59% rated his performance positively compared with 53% who felt the same way about Pierre Poilievre. 41% felt Jagmeet Singh left them with a positive impression while 25% felt the same way about Yves-Francois Blanchet.

In contrast, 22% said Carney’s debate performance left them with a negative impression compared with 30% for Poilievre and 35% for Singh. Taken together, the net impact on impressions for Carney is +37, +23 for Poilievre, and +6 for Singh.

The split views hold when we ask viewers who they felt did the most to win their vote. 43% said Poilievre did the most to win the vote followed closely by Mark Carney at 40%, a statistically tie. 11% felt Singh did the most to earn their vote with 2% picking Blanchet and 5% saying none of them did.

84% of Liberal voters said Carney did the most to earn their vote while 90% of Conservatives felt the same way about Poilievre. Among NDP supporters, 65% felt Singh did the best, followed by 16% who picked Carney and 13% who picked Poilievre.

When we ask who did the most to “lose your vote”, 29% picked Poilievre, followed by 21% who picked Carney. Singh was third at 17% and Blanchet was at 13%. 20% said none of the leaders did the most to lose their vote.

Did minds actually change?

Debate nights rarely flip the race, but they do shake the edges of the electorate. Just over seven in ten viewers told us the debate did not change how they intend to vote. Another 23% say it has made them “re‑think” their decision—essentially opening the door to persuasion—while only 4% assert the debate has made them change how they plan to vote.  Among those who say they debate made them rethink or change their vote, current vote intention is: Liberal 43%, Conservative 41%, NDP 13%, Green 3%. Among those who say they debate did not change their vote, vote intention is Conservative 47%, Liberal 44%, NDP 7%, Green Party 1%, and People’s Party 1%.

Expectations versus reality

Heading into tonight, our pre‑debate survey found that Canadians thought Carney was more likely than Poilievre to “do best” the English debate, even though expectations for his showing in French were far lower. The early read is that both Carney and Poilievre likely met expectations and neither gained a significant advantage over the other.

The Upshot

If campaigns are marathons punctuated by sprints, tonight’s English‑language debate looks like a brisk jog that left the two frontrunners exactly where they started. Mark Carney produced the marginally warmer afterglow—59 per cent of viewers said he left them feeling more positive, versus 53 per cent for Pierre Poilievre—but the gap is well within the emotional noise of a political TV event. Equally important, neither leader repelled large swaths of voters: Carney’s net impression sits at +37, Poilievre’s at +23, a difference significant for bragging rights but not yet for ballot boxes.

The key metric for momentum is movement, and on that score the dial barely twitched. Just four per cent of viewers tell us they’ve actually switched their vote; another 23 per cent are “re‑thinking,” but their current preferences mirror the national horse‑race (among English speaking Canadians) almost exactly. In other words, the debate prompted reflection, not realignment.

Could the narrative change over the Easter weekend? Absolutely. Debates age in the after‑show analysis, clips shared on social feeds, and dinner‑table debriefs. Yet our first pass suggests the Liberals’ slim national lead survives intact and the Conservatives may not have found the breakout moment they needed.

Methodology

This survey was conducted with 1,200 English speaking Canadian adults from 8:30pm to 10:00pm on April 17, 2025, following the English-language leaders’ debate. A total of 602 people said they watched at least some of the debate. Respondents were randomly selected from a set of partner panels integrated through the Lucid exchange platform. These panels are typically double opt-in and are blended to reduce the risk of bias from any single source.

A probability-based sample of this size would carry a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Survey data were weighted to reflect the Canadian population by age, gender, education, and region, based on the latest census data. Totals may not sum to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Two weeks out from election day, the story many expected to be writing by now—about Pierre Poilievre’s march to victory—hasn’t materialized. Despite years of strong polling, a Prime Minister with record-low approval, and a party machine firing on all cylinders, the Conservative Party now finds itself trailing the Liberals in every major publicly released poll, including ours, where the gap is now at four points.

So what happened?

To understand why Poilievre is falling short, we used a binary logistic regression model to dig beneath surface-level polling. Unlike a simple crosstab or approval rating, a logistic regression model allows us to pinpoint which factors actually predict someone’s likelihood of voting Conservative. It answers the question: if we know someone’s views on certain issues or leaders, how much does that increase or decrease the chance they’ll choose the Conservative Party on election day?

This method gives us a clear look at which levers Poilievre has successfully pulled—and which remain stuck.

A Party Built Around a Person

The first and most powerful predictor of a Conservative vote is a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre. When voters like him, they’re likely to support the party. That sounds obvious, but it’s more consequential than it seems. In a political landscape increasingly driven by leader brands rather than party brands, Poilievre is the Conservative message. He’s not just the face of the campaign—he is the campaign.

And the data shows that for many, that works. Poilievre is seen by a significant portion of voters as best suited to manage the economy, deal with tough international actors like Donald Trump, and—perhaps most importantly—keep Canada united. Those are powerful signals of competence and strength. Among those who see him that way, support for the Conservatives is solid.

But that’s also the trap.

Strength Without Scale

Poilievre’s support base is motivated, aligned, and deeply loyal. But it’s not expanding. That’s because the coalition he has built doesn’t yet reach far enough into the electorate’s middle—the soft voters still up for grabs, the ones who will decide this election.

The data makes this clear. While Poilievre scores well on economic credibility and leadership toughness, those signals aren’t being reinforced by a broader sense of relatability or optimism. Voters aren’t rejecting him in huge numbers, but many remain unconvinced he’s for them. They don’t dislike the pitch—they just don’t see it as theirs.

In fact, several of the variables we tested—like whether voters think Poilievre is best at reducing the cost of living or fixing housing—didn’t significantly predict Conservative support once we accounted for other factors. This suggests that voters may agree with Poilievre on the problems, but they’re not yet sold that he’s the one who can deliver. Think about that – whether or not you think Poilievre is best at reducing the cost of living is not a predictor of support for the Conservatives. That just reinforces how much the focus of this campaign changed and the Conservative Party’s inability to make it about affordability or change.

The Desire for Change Is Not High or Wide Enough

Speaking about change, the 2025 campaign was supposed to be all about it. After a decade of Liberal government, a stagnant standard of living, and growing affordability anxiety, the Conservatives banked on a public thirst for something new. And for many voters, that thirst exists.

But not for everyone. In fact, one of the strongest negative predictors of a Conservative vote in our model is a lack of urgency for change. If a voter doesn’t believe it’s definitely time for a new government, they are much less likely to choose the Conservatives.

And here’s where it gets interesting: enough voters still feel that things aren’t that bad, or that Carney represents a different kind of Liberal leadership, that they’re willing to give the party another chance. The public’s desire for change exists—but it’s no longer deep or broad enough to create a wave. And without that wave, Poilievre’s path to a majority government.

What Doesn’t Move the Dial

One of the striking findings from the model is how little traditional demographic variables matter right now. Gender, age, a sense of precarity, and even university education don’t significantly predict Conservative support. This suggests that Poilievre’s coalition isn’t being driven by identity politics or deep economic divides. Instead, it’s shaped by beliefs—especially about leadership, competence, and the need for change.

It’s Not You, It’s Me.

It’s also worth noting that a negative impression of Mark Carney doesn’t significantly increase Conservative support. This is not shaping up to be a “stop the Liberals” campaign the way 2011 was about stopping the NDP or 2019 may have been partly about stopping Trudeau. The Conservative vote right now is affirmatively pro-Poilievre—but it’s not yet compelling enough for those who remain unsure.

So What Does This All Mean?

With two weeks left, the Conservatives are facing a paradox. They have the most unified base, the clearest message on affordable, and a leader whose brand is resonating with a big slice of the electorate. But they haven’t built a coalition wide enough to win.

To change that, the party will need to do more than hammer the Liberals or repeat its “common sense” mantra. It will need to reach voters who agree with Poilievre on the problems but doubt he understands them personally or has the competence or experience to solve them – relative to Mark Carney. The data suggests these voters are movable—but only with the right appeal.

That might mean softening the message, highlighting compassion as much as strength, and showing that the party has a plan for people’s lives, not just the balance sheet. It could mean showing a more human, less combative side of the Conservative leader—especially in battleground ridings where the race is tightest. It’s debate week – if not this week – when?

Poilievre doesn’t need to abandon his base to win. But he does need to grow it. And the clock is ticking.

The data tells us the story: the Poilievre brand is working—but only for some. To win, he needs more than confidence. He needs connection.

The Model at Work

Here’s how the model plays out in practice, using five different voter profiles to show how different combinations of beliefs affect the probability of voting Conservative.

The most likely Conservative voter, unsurprisingly, is someone who holds all the right perceptions: they like Poilievre, dislike Carney, think Poilievre is best on both the economy and Trump, and firmly believe it’s time for a change. For this ideal scenario, the probability of voting Conservative hits 96%. But remove just one variable—the belief that it’s definitely time for a change—and the probability drops to 86%. That 10-point swing underscores how critical the “change” narrative is to the Conservative campaign’s success. Without that motivation, even Poilievre’s personal brand and economic message can’t fully close the deal.

Things shift even more when we test more limited belief sets. If a voter believes Poilievre is best on the economy, but doesn’t like him personally, doesn’t dislike Carney, and isn’t aligned on other leadership traits, the probability drops to 58%. That’s still a decent chance, but it’s clear the economic argument alone isn’t sufficient to drive the vote—it needs to be paired with a deeper personal or emotional connection.

Perhaps most instructive is what happens when someone has a positive view of Poilievre but doesn’t think it’s time for a change. In that case, the odds of voting Conservative drop to just 24%. And among those who hold none of the key perceptions—no positive view of Poilievre, no preference for him on Trump or the economy, and no sense of urgency for change—the probability of voting Conservative plummets to 8%. These scenarios reveal the limits of the Conservative coalition and reinforce a central insight from the model: Poilievre’s support is strong, but not yet broad. Without a deeper sense of urgency for change across the electorate, the party will struggle to build the winning coalition it needs. ​

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,900 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 3 to 8, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

Binary Logistic Regression

To identify the key predictors of support for the Liberal Party under Mark Carney’s leadership, we used a binary logistic regression model. This statistical technique estimates the likelihood that a respondent chooses a particular outcome—in this case, voting Liberal—based on a set of independent variables.

Unlike linear regression, which predicts a continuous outcome, logistic regression is used when the dependent variable is binary (e.g., support vs. no support). The model calculates the probability that an individual will vote Liberal, based on factors such as personal impressions of the leaders, issue priorities, demographic characteristics, and views on the state of the country.

The coefficients from the model represent the change in the log-odds of voting Liberal associated with each predictor, holding all other variables constant. A positive coefficient indicates an increased likelihood of voting Liberal, while a negative coefficient suggests a decreased likelihood.

This method allows us to isolate the individual impact of each factor and identify which attributes are most strongly associated with support for the Liberals—offering a more precise understanding of what’s driving voter behaviour in the current election context.

While traditional R-squared (as used in linear regression) doesn’t directly apply to logistic regression, we use pseudo R-squared measures to assess model fit.

• Nagelkerke’s R-squared (0.7078) is an adjusted version of the Cox & Snell R-squared, scaled to range between 0 and 1. It suggests that the model explains approximately 71% of the variation in vote intention—indicating strong explanatory power for a social science model.
• McFadden’s rho-squared (0.7001) is another commonly used pseudo R-squared that compares the fit of the full model against a null (intercept-only) model. Values above 0.4 are typically considered indicative of a very good model fit.

Both values suggest this logistic model provides a robust and meaningful explanation for what drives someone to vote Liberal in this election scenario.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

With less than two weeks to go before Canadians head to the polls on April 28, our most recent Abacus Data survey (conducted on April 14 and 15) provides an updated snapshot of the race as party leaders prepare for two pivotal debates: the French-language Leaders’ Debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow. This smaller sample, quick turnaround poll serves as a benchmark before these highly anticipated events, and we plan to conduct another survey over the upcoming long weekend to assess any post-debate shifts after voters have had a chance to watch the debates and discuss their impressions with friends and family over the holiday.

Overall, the data suggest that the Liberal lead has narrowed to just two points nationally (40% Liberal vs. 38% Conservative), down from a six-point advantage two weeks ago.

Moreover, among those who are most certain to vote, the Conservatives now post a slight numerical lead, underscoring a possible turnout advantage for Pierre Poilievre’s supporters if current enthusiasm levels hold. Despite these signs of a tightening race, regional patterns and other important metrics—such as perceptions of leadership and the sense of overall campaign momentum—still tilt in favour of Mark Carney and the Liberals. Below, we break down the key findings, the factors that may be causing the narrowing Liberal lead, and what to watch for heading into two crucial debate nights.

National and Regional Vote Intention

Nationally, the Liberals sit at 40% among all decided voters, with the Conservatives at 38%. The NDP remains in third place at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois has inched up to 7% nationally.

While the two-point Liberal lead is within the margin of error, it represents a clear tightening from the six-point advantage recorded earlier in April.

Crucially, when we look at voters most certain to cast a ballot—an indicator that can better approximate actual turnout—the Conservatives (40%) edge the Liberals (39%), with the NDP at 12%. This shift suggests that Conservative supporters, at least for now, may be more slightly more mobilized, introducing a scenario where enthusiasm could give the Conservatives a slight turnout edge if nothing changes.

Despite the overall narrowing, the regional picture still shows areas of Liberal strength:

British Columbia: The Liberals and Conservatives are effectively tied (39% vs. 39%), with the NDP at 16%.

Ontario: The Liberals lead the Conservatives by seven points (47% vs. 40%), marking a continuation of the Liberal advantage in Canada’s largest province—though that gap has tightened from double-digit leads in earlier polls.

Quebec: Here, the Liberals stand at 36%, compared to the Bloc’s 36% and the Conservatives’ 19%. Given the Bloc’s strong base in Quebec, the Liberals’ tie here is a favourable outcome for them, especially since Carney’s personal popularity in Quebec continues to outpace his rivals.

It’s worth reiterating that, because this poll was fielded among a smaller sample, the margins of error across subgroups—particularly at the regional level—are larger than usual. While the overall tightening is evident, specific regional shifts should be interpreted with caution.

Desire for Change Resurges

One of the most striking shifts in this poll is the upswing in the desire for change—a measure that had dipped in our previous waves but is now back in line with levels seen at the start of the campaign. Fully 56% of Canadians say it’s “definitely time for a change in government,” up from 51% just one week ago. Meanwhile, the share who strongly want the Liberals re-elected has dropped to 21% (down from 24%).

Among those who are firmly in the “time for a change” camp, 59% say they will vote Conservative, 15% are opting for the Liberals, and 13% for the NDP.

Leader Impressions: Carney Still on Top, But Slight Dip

Liberal Leader Mark Carney remains the most well-regarded major federal leader, with 45% of respondents viewing him positively versus 32% negatively, yielding a net favourability of +13. However, this represents a four-point drop in net score compared to the +20 he enjoyed in our previous survey, due to a slight reduction in his positive ratings (down 3) and an uptick in his negatives (up 4).

By contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre sees his negative impressions decline somewhat (43% negative), while 40% hold a positive impression, producing a net score of –3—a modest improvement for Poilievre.

On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney leads Poilievre by six points (40% vs. 34%)—a gap that’s narrowed from nine points last week. The margin is especially large in Quebec, where Carney’s personal brand has given him a 24-point advantage over Poilievre, and in Ontario, where Carney leads by nine.

Changing Salience of Key Issues: Trump Slides, Cost of Living Climbs

Over the past several weeks, Donald Trump’s role as a major campaign issue in Canada has been prominent, with discussions of cross-border trade tensions and “Liberation Day” pronouncements from the White House. Yet this poll finds that the salience of dealing with Trump is down three points (to 33%) as a top-two issue, while “reducing the cost of living” is up two points (to 46%).

Despite this shift, Carney and the Liberals retain a clear lead in voters’ minds on handling Trump (where they lead the Conservatives by 34 points among those who rank the Trump issue as a top concern). However, Poilievre and the Conservatives appear to have regained a small but meaningful advantage on housing affordability (+4) and reducing the cost of living (+4). These two issue areas are historically strong for Conservatives and remain central to the everyday concerns of many Canadians—especially as housing costs continue to to be a major pressure point and affordability remains front and centre.

When we segment voters by their top issues, a polarized pattern emerges:

Among the 33% who prioritize “dealing with Trump,” the Liberals lead by a 34-point margin (57% vs. 33%).

Among the 46% who list “cost of living” as a top concern, Poilievre’s Conservatives lead by 11 points (46% vs. 35%).

Shift in Voter Framing: “Change” vs. “Trump”

A specific question in our survey probes which factor is more likely to decide people’s votes: (a) the party best able to handle Donald Trump’s impact on Canada, or (b) the party best able to deliver a change in direction and policy. Since the start of the campaign, more Canadians had typically answered “Trump.” Now, 55% say their vote is about delivering change, versus 45% who continue to prioritize handling Trump. This reversal dovetails with the increased desire for change observed in this poll, potentially magnifying Conservative gains.

We also asked about other pairings: “cost of living vs. dealing with Trump,” and “best plan for the economy vs. dealing with Trump.” In both cases, cost of living and “change” have begun to pull away from “Trump.” While many Canadians remain concerned about the ramifications of Donald Trump’s policy stances, a growing share appears to consider domestic affordability challenges the more immediate priority. That tilt benefits Poilievre.

Liberals Still Seen as the Likely Winners

Despite the tightening of the horse race and a growing demand for change, 48% of Canadians say they expect the Liberals to win the election, an increase of one point since last week. Meanwhile, 32% believe the Conservatives will come out on top—unchanged over the same period.

Elevated Interest and Debate Expectations

As with previous waves, overall campaign interest continues to track higher than in Canada’s 2021 election. Notably, a majority of respondents (57%) say they are “very interested,” and the share who rate their interest at a perfect 10 on a 10-point scale remains above one-third. This heightened engagement could translate into stronger-than-usual turnout, particularly for parties able to mobilize supporters around their core issues.

Debate viewership is likewise expected to be substantial. Many Canadians plan to watch both the French-language debate tonight and the English debate tomorrow, though the English event typically garners a much larger national audience. Expectations for Mark Carney remain highest for the English debate: 41% believe he will perform best, compared to 34% who pick Poilievre. Meanwhile, for the French debate, Poilievre (31%) and Yves-François Blanchet (31%) share top billing among those with an opinion, though Carney could exceed relatively modest expectations (12%) if he demonstrates improved French-language fluency.

The Upshot

Two weeks ago, the Liberals held a six-point advantage nationally. In our latest poll, conducted earlier this week, that lead is down to just two points. In fact, among the most committed voters, the Conservatives hold a slender edge—possibly reflecting a more energized Conservative base or an electorate turning its focus back to cost-of-living concerns. Moreover, the desire for change has bounced back to 56%, and that momentum typically favours the main opposition party. Taken together, these indicators add up to meaningful good news for Pierre Poilievre, who needs continued momentum to build enough of a popular vote advantage to win more seats.

Still, it would be premature to declare this a genuine sea change. This was a smaller-sample survey, so we are not drawing ironclad conclusions about a permanent shift in the race. Moreover, Mark Carney continues to score highest on personal popularity and leads in overall “Preferred Prime Minister” metrics by six points. His party also remains ahead or competitive on key policy areas like handling Donald Trump, the economy, climate change, and international representation, and is competitive on more traditionally strong Conservative issues like affordability and housing.

Ultimately, the Liberal position remains arguably stronger than a two-point national lead might suggest, owing to robust support in Ontario and Quebec, Carney’s relative popularity, and a still-sizeable group of voters who anticipate a Liberal victory. That said, Poilievre’s path to unseating the government has become more tangible over the past couple of weeks, thanks to renewed emphasis on affordability and rising dissatisfaction with the status quo. The upcoming French and English Leaders’ Debates could be pivotal, especially for voters who tune in looking for an alternative to the Liberals. If Poilievre can deliver a performance that galvanizes swing voters or those craving change, this could put the Conservatives in a position to keep chipping away at the Liberal lead.

We’ll have a clearer sense of whether this narrowing gap is a short-term fluctuation or part of a longer-term trend after we conduct our next poll over the long weekend. With advance voting starting this Friday and Election Day on April 28, the final stretch of this campaign is rapidly approaching—and these next few days, including both debates, could prove decisive.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,200 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 14 to 15, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.9%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

At about the three-week mark of the campaign, a new Abacus Data poll conducted from April 7 to 10, 2025 finds the Liberals holding a 4-point lead over the Conservatives.

We see not only a shift in raw vote intention but a broader convergence of factors—leader impressions, expectations of who will form the next government, and top-of-mind issues—that now firmly favour the Liberals heading into the final stretch of the campaign.

Regionally, the Liberals continue to hold a solid 10-point lead in Ontario (48% vs. 38%). They are ahead by 23-points in Metro Toronto and by 2-points in the region surrounding Toronto (areas where postal codes start with L).

They remain dominant in Atlantic Canada, securing 55% to the Conservatives’ 31%. In Quebec, the Liberals hold a solid advantage over both the Conservatives and the Bloc (39% vs. 23% and 26%, respectively).

Meanwhile, the Conservatives still command large margins across Alberta and parts of the Prairies, though those leads have narrowed slightly relative to earlier in the campaign.

In British Columbia, the picture remains tight, with the Liberals and Conservatives effectively tied at 41%.

When looking at demographic patterns, the Liberals hold or match the Conservatives across all major age categories, including a notable double-digit advantage among those 60 years and older—a cohort that traditionally tilts more Conservative.

On educational attainment, the Liberals enjoy a sizable lead among university graduates, remain competitive among college graduates, and trail by a small margin among those with lower formal education. This points to a broadening of the Liberal coalition, which now spans a wide range of regions and demographic subgroups.

Much of the Liberals’ advantage can be attributed to improving public impressions of Mark Carney. The Liberal leader’s net favourability now stands at a robust +20 (48% positive vs. 28% negative), up significantly from the early weeks of the campaign.

In contrast, Pierre Poilievre is viewed positively by 38% of Canadians and negatively by 42%, resulting in a –4 net score. Poilievre’s supporters remain enthusiastic, but he has struggled to attract moderate or undecided voters at the same pace as Carney.

This difference is reflected in the “Preferred Prime Minister” metric, where Carney now leads Poilievre by nine points (43% vs. 34%).

Who is better… Carney or Poilievre?

New data from our latest wave of polling shows a marked upswing for Mark Carney on four leadership attributes we have consistently found to be strong predictors of vote intention. First, more Canadians now believe Carney is better at “finding common ground to solve a dispute,” suggesting that he is increasingly seen as the leader who can unite differing viewpoints and foster cooperation. This improvement underscores how Carney’s approach and messaging throughout the campaign have resonated with moderate and swing voters who value a prime minister capable of navigating political polarization.

Carney also continues to widen his lead on “standing up to a bully,” a measure that voters associate with resilience, fortitude, and the capacity to defend Canada’s interests on the international stage. At the same time, his edge on “captaining a ship through a rough storm” has grown, reflecting Canadians’ mounting perception that Carney has the judgement and temperament to steer the country through turbulent economic or diplomatic challenges. Both of these indicators became increasingly relevant amid concerns about Canada-U.S. trade relations and Donald Trump’s threats to Canada, lending Carney an advantage in the eyes of many voters looking for steadiness and competence

Finally, one of the most notable shifts is in how Carney is viewed on “helping you manage your household expenses”—a domain where Conservative messaging historically resonates. That Carney has managed to close and even overcome the gap on an issue so closely linked to affordability suggests he is successfully positioning himself as a pragmatic economic manager. Altogether, these four metrics illustrate a significant boost in Carney’s perceived leadership qualities; coupled with his improving overall favourability, they help explain the Liberals’ strengthening position as we enter the final stretch of the campaign.

Carney and the Liberals Expand Issue Ownership and Close Gap on Housing and Cost of Living

Turning to the issues, the Liberals’ position is buoyed by their perceived edge in managing the Trump file, the economy, climate policy, and national unity.

While the Conservatives had previously relied on cost-of-living concerns to rally voters, that once-formidable advantage has eroded amid heightened attention to potential cross-border tensions with the U.S. Mark Carney’s international and economic credentials appear to reassure many Canadians about his capacity to deal effectively with external shocks. The conversation surrounding “Liberation Day” and reciprocal tariffs seems to have played to the Liberals’ strengths, allowing them to spotlight Carney’s background and calm, measured tone on trade and foreign affairs.

Re-elect vs. Change

Over the past month, the proportion of Canadians saying it’s “definitely time for a change in government” has dropped from 57% in mid-March to 51% in our latest wave—representing a notable six-point decline in just a few weeks. At the same time, the share who feel it’s “definitely best to keep the Liberals in office” has risen steadily from 21% to 24%. This shift in sentiment suggests that the once pronounced appetite for unseating the incumbent government has softened, while core Liberal support has become more solid.

Compared to previous election cycles—both federal and provincial—the Liberals now sit squarely in what we’ve historically observed to be a “re-elect zone.” In past instances where incumbents have enjoyed a stable or growing group of committed supporters and a declining demand for change, they typically went on to secure another mandate. Although around half of Canadians still express a desire for change, the upward trend in those who strongly favour a Liberal re-election—and the downward movement in those insisting on a change—indicates a meaningful shift in the political landscape heading into the final stretch of the campaign.

Interest in the Election

Compared to the start of the 2021 general election, interest in this year’s campaign is substantially higher. In 2021, 53% of Canadians described themselves as “very interested” (scoring 8 to 10 on a 10-point scale), while this year, that figure has jumped to 69%. Moreover, the share who rate their interest at the maximum level (10 out of 10) has risen from 24% to 35%, underscoring the extent to which the electorate is more engaged than it was four years ago. This heightened enthusiasm suggests a broader public appetite to follow campaign developments closely—likely influenced by the higher-stakes issues and personalities dominating the 2025 race.

The Upcoming Leaders’ Debates

Our data indicate that 58% of Canadians say they intend to watch the upcoming English-language leaders’ debate, nearly double the 23% who plan to watch the French-language debate. Conversely, 69% say they will not be watching the French debate.

When asked to select the top five issues they want covered in the upcoming federal leaders’ debates, Canadians placed Donald Trump and his administration at the top of the list (68%), followed closely by housing affordability (65%), healthcare (64%), and jobs and the economy (63%). These core concerns reflect a blend of both international and domestic priorities, as voters weigh the potential impact of U.S. policy changes alongside everyday concerns about access to housing, stable healthcare services, and economic security. Immigration and population growth (43%) round out the mid-level tier, while national defence (36%), natural resource development (36%), and climate change (28%) are also viewed as critical topics for debate. Only a small fraction (10%) want a focus on Indigenous Reconciliation, and 5% would like to see other specific issues addressed.

Expectations heading into the two leaders’ debates vary dramatically by language. For the English-language debate, a 44% plurality of Canadians believe Mark Carney will turn in the strongest performance—well ahead of Pierre Poilievre at 32%, with the other leaders garnering only single-digit support.

In contrast, opinions on the French-language debate show a very different balance. While Pierre Poilievre leads with 30% expecting him to excel, a close 29% believe Yves-François Blanchet—an established presence in Quebec politics—will shine most brightly. Mark Carney, who holds a stronger image overall, is at just 12% on this measure, reflecting lingering doubts about his French proficiency or comfort level in a francophone debate setting. These comparatively low expectations could work in Carney’s favour if he manages to exceed them on debate night, but for now, it’s Poilievre and Blanchet who voters believe will dominate on the French stage.

The Upshot

Looking ahead, time is growing short for the Conservatives to reverse these trends. With the media narrative increasingly highlighting Carney’s leadership abilities and the Liberals’ overall momentum, Poilievre may need to pull focus back onto bread-and-butter issues like affordability and government accountability if he hopes to diminish the Liberals’ advantage. Historically, elections can shift course in the final stretch, but the data presently on offer point to a Liberal campaign that is both motivated and increasingly unified—finding ways to expand beyond its base of 2021 supporters.

Taken as a whole, the latest polling suggests that the Liberals have the upper hand in the 2025 federal election. Mark Carney’s rapid favourability climb, combined with regional and demographic realignments, has positioned his party as the current favourite to form government. While there is still a path to victory for the Conservatives—given their sizeable base and strong foothold in parts of Western Canada—the impetus now lies with Pierre Poilievre to drive a major shift in the campaign narrative if he hopes to close the gap before election day.

Many Canadians say they plan to watch at least one of the upcoming leaders’ debates, with especially high interest in the English-language event. Expectations for Mark Carney are notably high on that stage, where a sizeable share of voters predict he will turn in the strongest performance, eclipsing Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders. However, anticipation for Carney’s showing in the French-language debate remains more muted: a much smaller proportion expect him to do well against opponents like Poilievre and Yves-François Blanchet. These data points highlight both a large viewership for the debates overall and a leader whose perceived strengths in English contrast with lingering doubts about his French proficiency. The debates could be critical moments in this campaign.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 7 to 10, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.