Will Toronto-St.Paul’s by-election gauge Poilievre support?
Abacus Data Chair & CEO joined Rosemary Barton and Eric Grenier on Rosemary Barton Live on Sunday to discuss polls and the upcoming by-election in Toronto-St. Paul’s
Posthaste: Canadians would trade pay for a pension as interest rates hit retirement dreams
Canadians are so worried about retirement, 70 per cent said they would trade some pay for a better pension or any pension according to a new Abacus Data poll conducted for the Healthcare Pension Plan of Ontario (HOOPP).
After Trudeau challenges reliability of poll numbers, pollsters respond | Power & Politics
Abacus Data’s David Coletto and the Angus Reid Institute’s Shachi Kurl say while polls are snapshots in time, a series of snapshots can reveal how the electorate is feeling about parties and leaders. The comments come after Trudeau says Canadians are ‘not in decision mode’ right now, while facing poor poll numbers.
Consumer Insights: Canadian Mobile Wireless Sector Providing Lower Prices and Greater Value to Canadians
Between May 16 and 24, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey involving 5,000 Canadians aged 18 and over. The survey was commissioned by the Canadian Telecommunications Association (CTA) to evaluate perceptions of cell phone rates and service offerings, examining how frequently Canadians switch their plans, their views on the service provided by new plans, and comparing costs between new and previous plans.
Amid rising cost-of-living concerns, the study indicates that the majority of Canadians who have recently changed their cell phone plan report that they are receiving lower prices and greater value. Despite criticisms from some that price reductions are not being reflected in Canadians’ cell phone bills, the research indicates that people who have switched plans are saving money and getting better value compared to their previous plans.
Consumers Taking Advantage of Better Prices and More Services/Features
Current research reveals that 1 in 4 Canadians (26%) have changed their wireless plans in the past 12 months. Among those who switched, 47% switched to a different service provider while 53% switched to a different plan offered by their current service provider.
Of those who changed plans, 79% cited better pricing as the primary reason, particularly among those who compare cell phone plans and prices, with 4 in 5 indicating they switched for a better price. Additionally, 49% of Canadians switched plans to obtain more data. These findings highlight that many Canadians are successfully finding better rates and service plans, especially those who actively compare options.
Furthermore, among those who have not changed their plan, 1 in 5 Canadians (19%) expect to change their wireless service in the next 12 months, while 29% are uncertain. Price is a crucial consideration for 85% of those anticipating a change in their service plan. This insight highlights the dynamic nature of consumer preferences, with customers continuously evaluating and adjusting their plans to meet evolving needs and financial situations.
The Impact of Pricing on Consumer Behaviour
When evaluating the cost of their current plan and the services/features that they receive in their plan compared to their previous one, 63% of Canadians who have switched plans note that the cost of their current plan is lower than their previous plan while receiving the same or more services. An additional 17% indicate that they are paying the same as before but are receiving more services. This data collectively demonstrates a heightened consumer awareness of pricing changes within the wireless service market, highlighting that price is a crucial factor influencing decision-making processes among Canadian consumers.
In addition to improved pricing, 88% of Canadians say they are receiving the same or more services after changing their wireless plans. Further, among those who report paying less for their monthly plan, 84% are receiving the same or more services than before. Among respondents who note that they are receiving additional services, many reported an increased data allotment (74%) and higher data speeds (49%).
These findings illustrate a positive trend in the telecommunications industry, where Canadians who switch plans are not only benefiting from lower prices but also receiving enhanced services. This shows that the sector has responded to consumer demands and preferences by offering reduced pricing and value-added services.
Enhanced Value Perception Among Canadians Switching Wireless Plans
Most Canadians who switched their wireless plans perceive increased value with their new service, driven by lower costs, more services, and improved pricing. An overwhelming 86% of respondents felt they were getting a better deal with their new plan compared to their previous one. This dual value perception—financial savings and expanded services—underscores the complexity of consumer decision-making in telecom and emphasizes the need for providers to offer competitive pricing and tangible benefits aligned with customers’ preferences and usage patterns. Despite critics claiming that Canadians are not experiencing lower service bills, the majority of those who have switched plans report they are paying less and receiving better value than before.
The Upshot
The latest research shows a positive trend in the telecom industry: Canadians switching plans are getting lower prices and improved services. While critics may say cell phone prices haven’t dropped or that Canadians are not seeing lower cell phone service bills, the majority of those who have switched cell phone plans disagree—most acknowledge that they’re paying less and getting more. Amidst talk about cell phone plan costs, this research commissioned by the CTA shows a changing picture.
The study reveals a dynamic shift in consumer behaviour, with 26% of Canadians changing wireless plans last year. Price is a big reason, with 79% saying it’s why they switched. Also, 63% noticed their new plan costs less, highlighting affordability’s impact. Plus, 88% report getting the same or more services after the switch.
Despite economic challenges like rising living costs, cell phone plans offer relief to consumers. Those who switched plans are positive, finding better value in their new service. While debates continue about plan costs, the current research demonstrates that switchers are saving money and getting more for their dollar.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 5,000 Canadian adults from May 16 and 24, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Telecommunications Association. Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
Access the full report HERE
Perspectives des consommateurs : Le secteur canadien de la téléphonie mobile offre des prix plus bas et une valeur accrue aux Canadien
Entre le 16 et le 24 mai 2024, Abacus Data a mené une enquête nationale impliquant 5 000 Canadiens âgés de 18 ans et plus. L’enquête a été commandée par l’Association canadienne des télécommunications (ACT) pour évaluer les perceptions des tarifs de téléphonie cellulaire et des offres de service, en examinant à quelle fréquence les Canadiens changent leurs forfaits, leurs opinions sur le service fourni par les nouveaux forfaits, et en comparant les coûts entre les nouveaux forfaits et les forfaits précédents.
Au milieu des préoccupations croissantes concernant le coût de la vie, l’étude indique que la majorité des Canadiens qui ont récemment changé leur forfait de téléphone portable rapportent qu’ils bénéficient de prix plus bas et d’une meilleure valeur. Malgré les critiques de certains selon lesquelles les réductions de prix ne se reflètent pas dans les factures de téléphone cellulaire des Canadiens, la recherche indique que les personnes ayant changé de forfait économisent de l’argent et obtiennent une meilleure valeur par rapport à leurs forfaits précédents.
Les consommateurs profitent de meilleurs prix et de plus de services/fonctionnalités
Les recherches actuelles révèlent que 1 Canadien sur 4 (26 %) a changé de plan sans fil au cours des 12 derniers mois. Parmi ceux qui ont changé, 47 % sont passés à un autre fournisseur de services tandis que 53 % ont opté pour un autre plan proposé par leur fournisseur actuel.
Parmi ceux qui ont changé de forfait, 79 % ont cité de meilleurs prix comme principale raison, en particulier parmi ceux qui comparent les forfaits et les prix de téléphonie mobile, avec 4 sur 5 indiquant qu’ils ont changé pour obtenir un meilleur prix. De plus, 49 % des Canadiens ont changé de forfait pour obtenir plus de données. Ces résultats montrent que de nombreux Canadiens réussissent à trouver de meilleurs tarifs et forfaits de service, surtout ceux qui comparent activement les options.
De plus, parmi ceux qui n’ont pas changé de forfait, 1 Canadien sur 5 (19 %) prévoit changer de service sans fil au cours des 12 prochains mois, tandis que 29 % sont incertains. Le prix est une considération cruciale pour 85 % de ceux qui prévoient changer de forfait. Cette information souligne la nature dynamique des préférences des consommateurs, avec des clients qui évaluent et ajustent continuellement leurs forfaits pour répondre à leurs besoins et situations financières en évolution.
L’impact des prix sur le comportement des consommateurs
Lors de l’évaluation du coût de leur forfait actuel et des services/fonctionnalités qu’ils reçoivent dans leur forfait par rapport à leur forfait précédent, 63 % des Canadiens qui ont changé de forfait notent que le coût de leur forfait actuel est inférieur à celui de leur forfait précédent tout en recevant les mêmes services ou plus. De plus, 17 % indiquent qu’ils paient le même prix qu’auparavant, mais reçoivent plus de services. Ces données montrent collectivement une sensibilisation accrue des consommateurs aux changements de prix sur le marché des services sans fil, soulignant que le prix est un facteur crucial influençant les processus de prise de décision parmi les consommateurs canadiens.
En plus d’une amélioration des prix, 88 % des Canadiens disent recevoir les mêmes services ou plus après avoir changé de forfait sans fil. De plus, parmi ceux qui rapportent payer moins pour leur forfait mensuel, 84 % reçoivent les mêmes services ou plus qu’auparavant. Parmi les répondants qui indiquent recevoir des services supplémentaires, nombreux sont ceux qui rapportent une augmentation de leur allocation de données (74 %) et des vitesses de données plus élevées (49 %).
Ces résultats illustrent une tendance positive dans l’industrie des télécommunications, où les Canadiens qui changent de forfait bénéficient non seulement de prix plus bas, mais aussi de services améliorés. Cela montre que le secteur a répondu aux demandes et préférences des consommateurs en offrant des prix réduits et des services à valeur ajoutée.
Perception de valeur améliorée chez les Canadiens changeant de forfaits sans fil
La plupart des Canadiens qui ont changé de forfait sans fil perçoivent une valeur accrue avec leur nouveau service, motivée par des coûts plus bas, plus de services et une amélioration des tarifs. Une écrasante majorité de 86 % des répondants estiment qu’ils obtiennent une meilleure offre avec leur nouveau forfait par rapport à leur précédent. Cette perception de double valeur — économies financières et services élargis — souligne la complexité de la prise de décision des consommateurs en matière de télécommunications et met en évidence la nécessité pour les fournisseurs d’offrir des prix compétitifs et des avantages tangibles alignés sur les préférences et les habitudes d’utilisation des clients. Malgré les critiques affirmant que les Canadiens ne bénéficient pas de factures de services plus basses, la majorité de ceux qui ont changé de forfait rapportent payer moins et recevoir une meilleure valeur qu’auparavant.
La Conclusion
Les dernières recherches montrent une tendance positive dans l’industrie des télécommunications : les Canadiens qui changent de forfaits bénéficient de prix plus bas et de services améliorés. Bien que certains critiques affirment que les prix des téléphones cellulaires n’ont pas baissé ou que les Canadiens ne voient pas de réduction sur leurs factures de services cellulaires, la majorité de ceux qui ont changé de forfait ne sont pas d’accord — la plupart reconnaissent qu’ils paient moins et reçoivent plus. Au milieu des discussions sur les coûts des forfaits de téléphonie cellulaire, cette recherche commandée par l’ACT montre un tableau en évolution.
L’étude révèle un changement dynamique dans le comportement des consommateurs, avec 26 % des Canadiens ayant changé de forfait sans fil l’année dernière. Le prix est une raison majeure, avec 79 % déclarant que c’est pourquoi ils ont changé. De plus, 63 % ont remarqué que leur nouveau forfait coûte moins cher, soulignant l’impact de l’accessibilité. De plus, 88 % déclarent recevoir les mêmes services ou plus après le changement.
Malgré les défis économiques tels que l’augmentation du coût de la vie, les forfaits de téléphonie cellulaire offrent un soulagement aux consommateurs. Ceux qui ont changé de forfait sont positifs, trouvant une meilleure valeur dans leur nouveau service. Alors que les débats sur les coûts des forfaits continuent, les recherches actuelles démontrent que ceux qui ont changé d’abonnement économisent de l’argent et en ont plus pour leur argent.
Méthodology
L’enquête a été menée auprès de 5 000 adultes canadiens du 16 au 24 mai 2024. Un échantillon aléatoire de panélistes a été invité à répondre au sondage à partir d’un ensemble de panels partenaires basés sur la plateforme d’échange Lucid. Ces partenaires sont généralement des panels d’enquête à double consentement, mélangés pour gérer les éventuels biais dans les données provenant d’une seule source.
La marge d’erreur pour un échantillon aléatoire de probabilité comparable de la même taille est de +/- 1,39 %, 19 fois sur 20.
Les données ont été pondérées selon les données du recensement pour garantir que l’échantillon corresponde à la population du Canada en fonction de l’âge, du sexe, du niveau d’éducation et de la région.
Ce sondage a été financé par l’Association canadienne des télécommunications.
Abacus Data suit les normes de recherche d’opinion publique de CRIC et les exigences en matière de divulgation qui peuvent être trouvées ici: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
Access the full report HERE
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data Poll: Canadians React to the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Cut
Between June 6 and 13 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey involving 1,550 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of the housing situation in Canada. This survey explores Canadians’ awareness and reactions to the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate announcement, highlighting demographic disparities in awareness, satisfaction with the rate cut, personal impacts, economic expectations, and political implications.
Some key findings from the current research are:
- 71% of Canadians were aware of the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement, with higher awareness among older adults and homeowners.
- Satisfaction with the rate cut was reported by 40% of Canadians, notably highest among homeowners.
- 67% of Canadians believed the rate cut had little to no personal impact, especially among older demographics.
- 74% of Canadians reported that the rate cut had little to no impact on their confidence in Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.
Awareness of Bank of Canada’s Rate Announcement
Most Canadians, 71%, reported being aware of the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement on June 5th, 2024, while 29% were unaware. Awareness was highest among individuals aged 60 and older (84% aware) and among homeowners (82% aware). Conversely, younger Canadians were less likely to be informed about the rate cut, with 46% of those aged 18-29 indicating a lack of awareness. This disparity in awareness highlights the varying levels of engagement across different demographics in Canada.
Diverse Reactions to Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate Cut
Two in five Canadians report being satisfied with the Bank of Canada’s decision to cut the interest rate by 0.25%, with only 16% expressing dissatisfaction. Satisfaction is highest among homeowners (47%), as the rate cut has the potential to impact mortgage rates and renewals for many Canadians.
Meanwhile, two-thirds of Canadians believe the rate cut has little to no personal impact on them (67%). This sentiment is strongest among those aged 60 and older (81%), while younger Canadians show a marginal degree of optimism, with 12% of those aged 18-29 noting that it had a significant to extreme impact on them.
Additionally, 42% of Canadians see the rate cut as a sign of positive progress, a belief most prevalent among homeowners (51%) and those who voted for the Liberals in the 2021 election (56%).
Expectations on the Economic Impact and Future Rate Cuts
Overall, 42% of Canadians do not believe the rate cut will have any noticeable impact on the economy, while 43% think it will make a difference. Young Canadians are more optimistic, with 56% expecting a noticeable economic impact, compared to 58% of those aged 60 and older who believe it will have no effect.
Additionally, 40% of Canadians anticipate further rate cuts this year, whereas 24% think additional cuts are unlikely. Those who voted for the Liberal party in the 2021 election are more likely to expect further rate cuts (53%), while 39% of Conservative voters from 2021 remain unsure about future cuts. These varying perspectives highlight the differing economic outlooks and expectations among Canadians based on age and political affiliation.
Rate Cut’s Impact on Confidence in Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberals
Responses to the rate cut’s effect on confidence in Justin Trudeau and the Liberals varied significantly among Canadians. Overall, 74% felt it had little to no impact on their confidence. Younger Canadians, particularly 18-29-year-olds (16%) and 30-44-year-olds (15%), were more likely to perceive an impact, while older Canadians, notably those aged 60 and above, largely believed it had no effect (87%).
Among Liberal voters from the last federal election, 15% noted a significant impact on their confidence in Trudeau’s government, contrasting with 65% of Conservative voters who reported no change. Moreover, among those supporting the re-election of the Liberals, 17% felt a significant impact, whereas 62% of those seeking change with an alternative and 52% of those unsure about an alternative noted no effect on their confidence in Trudeau.
The Upshot
Overall, the recent rate cut by the Bank of Canada garnered significant attention among Canadians but had a relatively modest impact on public sentiment. While awareness of the rate announcement was high, satisfaction with the cut was tempered, with only 40% expressing explicit satisfaction. Note, the rate cut is not great news for everyone. Those with savings and little debt have benefited from higher rates in terms of interest earned on that savings. Moreover, a substantial majority of Canadians, 67%, believed the rate cut had little to no personal impact, indicating cautious optimism about its economic implications.
While many Canadians initially viewed the rate cut as a positive step towards future economic improvements, the reality of its perceived minimal immediate impact on personal finances and economic confidence is apparent.
The immediate political impact of the rate cut has been minimal to date. Yesterday, we reported no shift in political opinions and the Conservatives holding a 20-point lead over the Liberals. In fact, when asked how people would vote in this poll, the Liberal Party’s vote share was the lowest we’ve recorded since it was elected in October 2015.
Perhaps most informative from that poll is the finding that among those who rate the cost of living as one of their top three issues (73% of Canadians), only 14% believe the Liberal Party is best able to hand the issue, 4-points fewer than feel that way about the NDP and 24-points fewer than pick the Conservatives.
Voters usually vote for the party they think can best handle the issue they care more about. As long as Canadians are focused on the cost of living and continue to feel friction on the issue, the Liberals face tough odds to be re-elected.
As Canadians continue to navigate economic uncertainties and evaluate political leadership, the rate cut’s muted effects suggest it may not serve as a definitive solution or political boon for the Liberals.
Many Canadians are happy with the rate cut and believe more are coming. This may ultimately improve the public’s mood and give credit to the Trudeau government. But right now, that is not happening suggesting the path forward will likely require further loosening of monetary policy and a shift in perceptions about the federal government’s effort to handle the issues that matter most to people.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from June 6 to 13, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data Poll: Post-Interest Rate Cut, Conservatives lead by 20 and Liberal vote share drops to lowest level since 2015.
From June 6 to 13, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,550 Canadian adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this edition of our Canadian politics tracking, we report on our usual metrics along with a deep dive into what concerns Canadians the most and the performance of political parties on these issues.
Note, all of the interviews in this survey were conducted after the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight interest rate.
Vote Intention: Conservatives lead by 20 over the Liberals
If an election were held today, 42% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 22%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ continues to hold 38% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives and NDP are up 1 while the Liberals are down 3. About a month ago, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals was 16-points. Today it is 20. At 22%, this is the lowest vote share we have measured for the Liberals since they were elected in 2015.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in BC and Ontario, leading by 17. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives’ lead shrank compared to our last survey, but they continue to be ahead of the Liberals by 14 points. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead of the Liberals by 12-points with the Conservatives in third at 22%.
Demographically, Liberal support among 18- to 29-year-olds is back down to where it was pre-budget, as the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals grows again. In May, the Conservatives led by 5 points. Today, the gap is 11-points. The NDP has been the main beneficiary of the drop in youth support for the Liberals. The Conservatives’ lead among Canadians aged 30 and over also grew by 6 points (28-point lead vs 22-point lead in our last survey). There is no gender gap in political support.
Although there has been a small shift voting intentions, there’s been little change in the size of each party’s accessible voter pools. Today, 52% are open to voting Conservative (up 1), 41% are open to voting NDP (unchanged) while 39% are open to voting Liberal (down 1).
No change in other key metrics
Beyond vote intention, there’s been little change in the perception of the country’s direction. An overwhelming majority (60%) believe the country is on the wrong track, while only 27% believe it’s in the right direction. This represents a change of only 1-point (26% in our last survey) among those who think things are headed in the right direction. We will monitor whether the changing interest rate landscape changes this view.
54% of Canadians want a change in government and think there is a good alternative, up 3 since last month while those who definitely want to see the Liberals re-elected is up 2 to 17%.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also static. 59% have a negative impression of the Prime Minister and 26% have a positive view for a net score of -33. This is unchanged since last month pretty much, although Trudeau’s negatives are up 3 since early May.
Impressions of Pierre Poilievre are holding steady. Today 39% have a positive impression while 37% have a negative impression for a net score of +2.
Feelings about NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are similarly consistent with 35% having a negative view and 33% having a positive view for a net score of -2.
at polling for public affairs and advocacy.
This desire for change is partly reflected in the shifting perceptions of the most important issues facing Canada today. Concern for immigration has risen to 26% over the past few weeks, surpassing concerns for climate change and the environment.
Other issues hold steady. The top issue among Canadians continues to be the rising cost of living with 73%, and housing affordability and accessibility with 47%. Additionally, 44% consider healthcare a top issue, while 34% prioritize the economy. In total, 85% of Canadians put either the cost of living or housing as a top issue.
On these issues, when we ask those who prioritize a certain issue, which party is best able to handle the issue, the Conservatives dominate among those who care about immigration, the economy, crime, and the threat posed by China and Russia.
On the top 3 issues – the cost of living, housing, and healthcare – the Conservatives lead by 21 over the NDP on the cost of living (the Liberals are in third), the Conservatives lead by 11 on housing (the Liberals are in third) while the three parties are statistically tied on healthcare with the NDP at 25% and the Liberals and Conservatives tied at 22%.
Among those who rate the economy as a top issue, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals by 33-points (50% to 17%). The Conservatives trail on only three other issues – beyond healthcare: inequality and poverty, indigenous reconciliation, and climate change. On climate change, the Liberals are tied with the Greens at 30% with the NDP at 12% and the Conservatives at 11%.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Bank of Canada’s decision to lower its overnight rate should be good political news for the Liberals. But so far, we see no evidence of improvement in public opinion for Prime Minister Trudeau or the Liberals. The Conservatives lead by 20, the Liberal vote share is the lowest we have seen measured since October 2015, and the general mood of the country has not changed in any meaningful way. We will have additional insights from this poll on some questions related to the interest rate cut out tomorrow. But for now, it’s clear that the Liberals find themselves in as worse an opinion environment today than they have at any point in their 9 years in office.
Perhaps most troubling is how people feel about issue ownership. In all top issues but climate change (now behind immigration), the Liberals trail behind the Conservatives and in some cases by a wide margin – on how people think is best able to handle the issue. This is ultimately reflected in an intensifying desire for change, at a time when it was already very high. Importantly, the perception that there is no alternative to the Liberals and their government has decreased, even among Liberal supporters.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,550 Canadian adults from June 6 to 13, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Class and the Vote: The Conservatives are winning over everyone
With a large lead overall, the Conservative Party has held the largest vote share by age, gender, region and income for some time now. But what about the relationship between federal vote and self-described class? Two weeks ago, I shared some data on perceptions around class in Canada. Today, I dig a bit deeper.
The findings below are from an online survey of n=1,500 gen pop adults in Canada from April 11th to 16th. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Before we get into the data, a quick reminder of the federal polling numbers at the time of this survey (undecideds removed).
- CPC: 43%
- LPC: 23%
- NDP: 18%
- BQ: 7%
- Green: 5%
And the majority of Canadians consider themselves middle class (41%). Very few say they are upper middle/upper class.
The main takeaway is that Conservatives lead among all classes. 39% of the lower class would vote Conservative, 47% of the working class, 41% of the middle class and 48% among the upper middle/upper class. Perhaps unsurprising, the NDP does best with those who self-describe as lower class. While the Liberals may do best with the middle class, they don’t fare so well among those working hard to join it.
The Bloc are most popular among the middle class- but far more individuals consider themselves middle class in Quebec, compared to other regions of the country.
Digging deeper, the findings get more interesting. When we look at childhood classes, we see much clearer leads for certain political parties. The Conservatives pick up a notable lead among individuals who say they grew up in the working class (49%), but they are far less popular among those who say they grew up in the lower class (32%).
Those who grew up lower class are much more likely to be voting NDP (33%), than other classes (13% among upper middle/upper).
When it comes to class mobility- the Conservatives lead across the board again. There is also a near perfect relationship between class mobility and Liberal vs NDP voting behaviour. Individuals who’ve experienced negative mobility (moving to a lower class) are more likely to vote NDP, while those who have ascended the class hierarchy become Liberal voters. The Conservatives still lead in both segments by a sizable margin.
The higher the class, the more positive the impression of Justin Trudeau. Impressions for Justin Trudeau are highest among the upper classes, and lowest among the working and lower classes. Trudeau has a net negative impression among all classes.
Among the middle class, the target of the federal budget, impressions are net negative (note: this survey was fielded ahead of the official federal budget release but in the midst of several budget announcements).
When it comes to impressions of leaders, Pierre Poilievre performs best across the board. For Poilievre, impressions are highest among the working class and upper classes.
The only class where Poilievre does not lead on impressions is the lower class. The lower class feels most positive about Jagmeet Singh. And it is one of the only classes where Singh has a positive impression. For Singh, impressions are most positive among the lower and middle classes, and lowest among the working and upper classes.
THE UPSHOT
While self-described class is about income, wealth, and financial stability it is also about identity. Looking at vote and leader impressions it appears as though Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party have done best at representing the values and ideals for a number of classes. The Liberal Party has done best with upper classes and the NDP with lower classes.
In 2015, Trudeau and the Liberals successfully spoke to Canadians in the middle class and those aspiring to join it. Today they are only able to capture a quarter of those votes, and they struggle with those who feel they are falling behind. The Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre are now the party of the middle class and class mobility.
Winning the next election will mean connecting with the two biggest classes- the working class and the middle class. We have already seen many signals from all parties looking to show they identify or at least represent these groups, and we will continue to watch to see which party can do it best as we get closer to an election.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from April 11 to 16, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Healthy or not: The dynamics of public perceptions about nutrition, exercise and lifestyle
Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey earlier this year (1,500 Canadian adults from February 29 to March 6, 2024) to explore health perceptions among Canadians.
The findings from this study underscore the impact of cultural trends and advances in scientific knowledge, often reflected in national guidelines. But they also show diverse perceptions and views across some items and large generational differences.
Canadians were asked which of two behaviours is healthier. Overall, there’s widespread consensus on the healthiness of getting a solid 8 to 9 hours of sleep at night (rather than taking short naps throughout the day), the benefits of a balanced mix of plant and animal proteins for a healthy diet (rather than plant-based only), and favour cooking with olive oil (rather than vegetable oil), eating whole eggs (rather than just egg whites), and using butter (rather than margarine). Eating a lot of small meals throughout the day (69%) is also seen as healthier than eating larger meals in a shorter time period, while eating an hour before bed (58%) is typically regarded as unhealthy.
When asked more specifically, while most find it unhealthy to skip breakfast (65%), there is less consensus on whether having a muffin and orange juice constitute a healthy breakfast. While 45% agrees this a healthy breakfast, 30% find it neither healthy nor unhealthy, and 23% unhealthy.
Similarly, most think taking daily multivitamins is a healthy behaviour (70%) while more think it’s healthier to get nutrients from a healthy diet only rather than from using supplements. But one in three Canadians think it’s healthier to use supplements, and not just rely on a healthy diet for getting nutrients.
Differences in health perceptions: Cultural and social contexts
The perception of what constitutes a healthy lifestyle is often shaped by the campaigns, especially national guidelines, and the health information individuals were exposed to during their formative years. In the 1980s, for instance, government advice centred around low-carb, low-fat diets, advising against the consumption of cholesterol.
Newer research, which has challenged the negative consequences of carbs and fat, particularly cholesterol, has shifted the emphasis in national guidelines. Today, scientific and government advise centres on the negative consequences of ultra-processed food and emphasizes the importance of labelling.
Younger adults are also more likely to be exposed to health information through the internet and social media, shared by influencers and health gurus, which have created new ‘diet cultures.’
In our survey, older individuals (62%) are more likely to find it healthier to follow a low-carb diet, while younger people are more likely to perceive a low-ultra processed food diet as healthier. This likely reflects younger individuals’ exposure to recent campaigns prioritizing local and organic products, over ultra-processed food.
Comparably, older individuals see cutting out fats as healthier, likely a reflection of their exposure to the ‘war on fat’ messaging. Those aged 60+ are significantly more likely (74%) to view cutting as much fat from your diet as possible as healthy, whereas only 50% of those under the age of 60 feel this way.
Older individuals (79%) also perceive the consumption of dairy as healthier compared to younger adults (56%), likely a reflection of the extensive promotional campaigns for milk and dairy and its messaging surrounding bone strength and other benefits.
Generational differences also extend to exercise preferences: younger individuals (41%) perceive weight training as healthier, compared to older adults (15%). Conversely, older adults (85%) are more likely to find cardio workouts healthier, than younger age groups (59%).
Gender differences in health perceptions also reveal distinct preferences. Women (76%) see the consumption of daily multivitamins as healthier than men (66%), and are more likely to emphasize the health benefits of fermented foods (36%) than men (26%).
In contrast, men are somewhat more likely to view drinking a glass of wine (36%) or consuming sugar-free beverages such as pop (23%) as healthy, than women (28% and 17% respectively).
As with generational differences, gender preferences also extend to perceptions on exercise. While both men and women find low-intensity training workouts healthier than high-intensity training workouts, women (71%) are more likely to view low-intensity training as healthier than men (63%). Conversely, men (37%) are more likely to perceive high-intensity training workouts than women (29%).
Finally, health perceptions not only reveal current trends but also highlight gaps in public awareness. When asked if drinking a glass of wine, a day is healthy, the majority of individuals (39%) find it neither healthy nor unhealthy, while 5% are uncertain. Guidelines on consumption of alcohol have changed over the last couple of year, which may contribute to a lack of consensus.
People are also most uncertain about the health impacts of newer trends such as eating fermented foods regularly (16% don’t know) and fasting for 14 to 16 hours a day (8%).
In particular, the likelihood of perceiving fermented foods as healthy increases with education and income. Individuals with university completed are most likely to find fermented foods healthy (38%) and least likely to be unaware of the benefits (12%), while those with high school or less are least likely to find it healthy (24%) and most likely to likely to be unaware (19%).
The difference is similar when it comes to income. Individuals making over $150,000 are most likely to find fermented foods healthy (36%) and least likely to be unaware of the benefits (10%), while those making less than $150,000 are least likely to find it healthy (29%) and most likely to likely to be unaware (18%).
The Upshot
The answer to the question of ‘what is healthy’ is dynamic and evolving over time, as scientific understanding, societal norms, and cultural influences change. In particular, there is a clear generation divide on health perceptions, reflecting the profound impact of historical context on individuals’ beliefs about health and wellness. While older adults are more likely to emphasize the importance of low-carb and low-fat diets, younger adults find low-ultra processed foods more beneficial.
This divide on our understanding of nutrition is further reflected on other preferences such as exercise, the consumption of certain foods (like dairy or butter), and the focus on certain benefits, such as cutting fats.
As social and cultural contexts impact health perceptions, gender, education and income also play a role. Familiarity with emerging nutritional research, such as the use of fermented foods, illustrate the different exposure among certain demographics to ‘what is healthy.’
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
What do Canadians believe is slowing down the construction of new housing?
Between April 25 and 29 2024, Abacus Data conducted a nationwide survey involving 1,500 Canadians (18+) to assess their perceptions of the housing situation in Canada. The survey explored the perceptions of homeownership, key factors affecting housing affordability, barriers to accelerating construction, and the role and impact of government actions.
The housing landscape in Canada is facing significant challenges, and the current research shows that many Canadians continue to express deep concerns about the attainability and affordability of homeownership. These findings underscore the need for coordinated actions and solutions to instill confidence in the housing market and ensure that homeownership becomes an achievable aspiration for all Canadians.
Perceptions of Homeownership in Canada Today
The current research reveals a negative outlook on Canadians’ perceptions of homeownership today. Specifically, 64% believe homeownership in Canada represents risk and financial strain, especially among non-homeowners (70%). Additionally, 89% of Canadians view housing as unaffordable for most, highlighting the widespread feeling of being priced out of the market. This suggests that many Canadians have lost confidence in the attainability of homeownership.
Furthermore, 81% believe the dream of homeownership is dead and unattainable for most, particularly among renters (85%). These findings underscore the urgent need for action to revive the dream of homeownership and make it attainable for all Canadians, as the dream of homeownership in Canada is currently at risk.
Factors to Consider Regarding Housing Affordability and Perceived Barriers to Speeding Up Construction
With many Canadians losing confidence in the attainability of homeownership, it is important to understand the factors people think are important when considering housing affordability. Among the most important factors to consider with respect to housing affordability, 39% of Canadians cite builders and developers prioritizing profit, while 38% point to increased immigration. Beyond these primary concerns, Canadians also recognize other critical factor that have an impact on construction costs. These include the availability and cost of land (37%), a shortage of skilled trade workers (28%), borrowing costs for builders (27%), provincial regulations (23%), and municipal bylaws (21%). Thus, while many Canadians believe builder and developer profit motives are a significant issue, they also acknowledge the various other factors affect housing costs and the ability to offer affordable housing.
To expedite the construction of new homes and alleviate the housing crisis, it is crucial to understand the perceived barriers. Nearly two-thirds of Canadians (63%) believe high construction costs are the biggest obstacle. Additionally, 46% cite lengthy approval processes and red tape, 41% point to a shortage of skilled labor in the construction industry, and 32% highlight zoning restrictions. These barriers impede the speed of construction and must be addressed to effectively tackle the housing crisis and make affordable housing a reality.
Role and Impact of Government
Degree to which government is doing enough to address housing affordability
Only 1 in 4 Canadians believe the federal government is doing enough to address housing affordability, marking a 10-point improvement since September 2023. Those planning to vote Liberal in the next election are significantly more likely to believe the government is addressing housing affordability (49%) compared to those intending to vote Conservative (11%). Additionally, 26% of Canadians believe their provincial government is doing enough (+12 points since September 2023), and 20% feel their municipal government is taking adequate action (+6 points since September 2023). Despite these improvements, over half of Canadians still believe that all levels of government are not doing enough to address housing issues.
Level of Importance Placed on Making Housing More Affordable
Most Canadians do not believe government, at all levels, are prioritizing housing adequately. Specifically, 63% feel the federal government, 65% their provincial government, and 69% their municipal governments are not giving sufficient importance to housing affordability today. At the federal level, those planning to vote Conservative in the next election are significantly more likely to perceive the government as neglecting housing affordability (71%) compared to Liberal voters (36%). These perceptions highlight a widespread sentiment that housing affordability is not receiving the necessary attention, underscoring the urgent need for more effective government action across all levels.
Degree to Which Governments are Working Together
Amidst the prevailing sentiment that all levels of government are falling short in addressing housing affordability and prioritizing its importance, 3 in 5 Canadians (60%) express skepticism about the effective collaboration between provincial and federal governments to tackle the housing crisis, with merely 15% perceiving effective collaboration. Among those doubting this collaboration, 71% intend to vote for the Conservative party in the upcoming election, compared to 44% who plan to vote for the Liberal party. These findings underscore a significant lack of confidence in government cooperation, adding complexity to efforts aimed at addressing the housing crisis and restoring belief in the feasibility of affordable homeownership for Canadians.
The Upshot
Over the past year, Canada’s housing crisis has reached critical levels, prompting widespread attention from politicians nationwide. Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has taken significant strides towards addressing housing accessibility and affordability, notably through measures outlined in the 2024 Federal Budget. However, despite these efforts and some signs of a shift in sentiment, there remains a prevailing sense of dissatisfaction among Canadians regarding the government’s response. Many believe that the federal government is failing to adequately address housing affordability, prioritize it effectively, and collaborate efficiently with provincial counterparts on this issue. Consequently, pessimism persists among Canadians regarding the future of housing accessibility and affordability in the country, with a strong belief that the dream of homeownership in Canada is dead and unattainable.
This pessimistic sentiment surrounding the state of housing in Canada adds an intriguing dimension to the current political landscape. While Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government strive to demonstrate their commitment to addressing housing concerns, Pierre Poilievre has actively championed housing affordability as a central focus of his political agenda, consistently emphasizing this message. As the discourse on housing continues, navigating these differing approaches will be crucial in addressing the pressing needs of Canadians and shaping the future trajectory of the housing market.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from April 25 and 29 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Only a third of Canadians feel they are better off now than they were in their childhood.
The 2024 federal budget focused on generational fairness, and helping young Canadians get ahead. But a sense of fairness and getting ahead is hard to come by these days. In part, because more Canadians than ever are finding it difficult to save, and fewer feel they are on their way to future financial success either.
The findings below are from an online survey of n=1,500 gen pop adults in Canada from April 11th to 16th. This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
To lay some groundwork for the conversation, more Canadians consider themselves middle-class (41%). Very few Canadians consider themselves any higher. Those living in Quebec are more likely to say they are living in the middle-class than others. Those in Atlantic Canada are more likely to say they are lower class.
Household income does align with reported class- but middle-class has the widest range of household income. Half of those making $50-75K, $76-100K, and $100-150K consider themselves to be middle class.
One in three Canadians feel they have made it into a better class than the one they grew up in. A quarter say they are living in a lower class than they grew up in. Interestingly, those who have had more time to build generational wealth and break into a new class are no more likely to say they’ve made it. The distribution of lower to upper class looks the same among 18 to 29 year olds as it does for those 60+.
Instead, owning a house is a much stronger predictor of class. 72% of those in an upper class own a home, compared to 45% of those working class or below.
About half of those in the working and middle class say they’ve had little to no class mobility over their lifetime. Those on either end have seen more movement but not always positive- 73% of those in the lower class say it’s lower than the class they grew up in, and 75% of those in an upper class say it’s a higher class than they grew up in.
Self-prescribed class can be interchangeable with feeling like you are able to get by financially day to day or put aside funds for saving or discretionary spend. We see some alignment between class and getting ahead, but there are still a sizeable number of individuals in each class who feel they are financially limited. And even more important, a large number of those below the middle class who say they aren’t even able to make ends meet.
Only 8% of those in the lower class say they are able to put money aside to cover expenses. 44% say they are unable to make ends meet. On the other ends of the scale, two thirds of those in the upper classes are saving, but a third are stretched too thin either just making their payments or falling behind.
The Upshot
The recent economic uncertainty in Canada has left many feeling financially challenged, both in the short and long-term. Canadians (particularly in the lower class, but also middle and upper) feel stretched financially day-to-day, which influences their ability to pay bills today, envision financial stability in the future, and more broadly, feel like Canada is on the right track and that there is enough to go around.
In the long-term, achieving financial success and even stability takes time, but time alone isn’t responsible for accumulating wealth. Assets, in particular home ownership, are one of the main drivers for class mobility and financial wealth. Helping more Canadians get ahead will be about addressing these perceptions (and reality) of both short-term and long-term financial success.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from April 11 to 16, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.