How young men are changing what conservatism looks like in Canada
Gen-Z is heading in opposite directions politically: women turning left, while men go right
Abacus Data Poll: What do Canadians want discussed at the Leaders’ Debates?
As Canadians prepare to tune into the federal Leaders’ Debates next week—April 16 in French and April 17 in English—new data from Abacus Data finds they are coming with a clear set of expectations about what the leaders should talk about.
We asked 1,800 Canadians surveyed from April 7 to 10, 2025 to choose up to five issues they believe should be discussed in the debates. At the top of the list? Dealing with Donald Trump and his administration (68%), housing affordability and availability (65%), healthcare and access to services (64%), and jobs and the economy (63%). These four issues dominate the public’s mind and form a core agenda that spans demographics and partisanship, though notable differences emerge beneath the surface.
Trump, housing, healthcare, and jobs lead—but not for everyone
The single most commonly selected issue was how Canada should deal with Donald Trump and his administration. With Trump looming large over the election and Canada’s economy so tightly linked to his tariff threats, nearly 7 in 10 Canadians want to see the party leaders explain how they would manage that relationship. The desire to see this discussed was particularly high among older Canadians—81% of those 60+ chose this, compared to just 57% of those aged 18 to 29.
Housing affordability ranked second overall, especially resonant among younger Canadians. It was selected by 71% of those aged 18 to 29 (their top issue), compared to 63% of those over 60. It was also the top issue for NDP (75%) and Bloc Québécois (67%) voters. Conservatives (67%) and Liberals (64%) were close behind, suggesting strong cross-partisan concern about the housing crisis.
Healthcare and access to services (64%) was a higher priority for women (70%) than men (58%), and most popular among older Canadians (77% among those 60+), making it a top issue for that age group just behind Trump. Supporters of the Liberal Party (68%), NDP (71%), and Bloc (71%) were especially likely to want healthcare discussed, compared to 58% of Conservative supporters.
Jobs and the economy rounded out the top four, with similar levels of support across gender and age, though Conservative voters (69%) were most likely to select it.
Other issues: immigration, national defence, climate change divide voters
Immigration and population growth (43%) was selected more by older Canadians and Conservative voters (55%) than others. National defence and security (36%) was also more top of mind for men (41%) than women (31%).
Climate change and the environment (28%) was one of the most polarized issues. While just 16% of Conservative supporters selected it, 37% of Liberals, NDP, and Green supporters did. Among Canadians aged 18 to 29, 36% selected it—more than any other age group.
Indigenous reconciliation (10%) and “something else” (5%) ranked lowest overall, though younger Canadians were twice as likely to mention reconciliation than those over 60.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 7 to 10, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Advantage Liberal: What advanced modelling tells us about why the Liberals are winning
With just two weeks left in the campaign, the data suggests Mark Carney and the Liberal Party are within striking distance of defying expectations if just a few months ago and pulling off a fourth straight election win. While many observers had written off the Liberals, new analysis offers a more nuanced picture—one that highlights the opportunity ahead for Carney, if he can consolidate his strengths and overcome a an electorate anxious about the uncertainty created by Donald Trump and still reeling from the affordability crisis that gripped the nation for the past two years.
We recently ran a binary logistic regression model to better understand what’s driving support for the Liberals in this election. In plain terms, a logistic regression is a way of identifying which factors increase or decrease the likelihood that someone will vote Liberal. It’s a method that lets us separate the signal from the noise—to distinguish which perceptions and personal characteristics really matter in predicting vote choice.
Rather than just looking at who says they’ll vote Liberal, we isolate the variables most associated with that decision and evaluate their strength, while controlling for everything else. It’s like trying to understand what ingredients make a voter more likely to pick Carney’s name on the ballot—economic views, issue priorities, education, gender, and personal impressions all get thrown into the mix. The model helps us see which ones matter most.
What did we find?
It’s the Economy, and Carney
The most consistent and powerful predictor of a Liberal vote is a sense that Mark Carney is the better choice to manage the economy and deal with Donald Trump. Among all the variables we tested—from education to gender to impressions of Pierre Poilievre—Carney’s perceived strength on economic management was the standout.
Voters who believe Carney is better equipped to grow the economy, deal with Trump, and even help manage the cost of living are significantly more likely to support the Liberals. That tells us something critical about the current campaign landscape: people are still very open to economic leadership, and Carney’s background in global finance and economics is an incredibly powerful asset.
It’s also worth noting that Carney’s perceived competence extends beyond the economy. Voters who see him as stronger on climate change and housing are also more inclined to support him. But economic credibility and dealing with Trump remain the foundation.
Likeability—and the Personal Brand—Matters
Another powerful predictor is how people feel about Mark Carney himself. Those with a positive impression of him are far more likely to vote Liberal. In fact, this was one of the strongest effects in the model. In an election shaped by a growing precarity mindset and a general sourness about the state of the country, personal impressions can make or break a candidate.
What this tells us is that the Liberals don’t just have a policy pitch—they have a messenger who, when seen in a favourable light, can dramatically improve their chances. For someone that barely 10% could recognize when he announced his candidacy to lead the Liberals, Carney is now a definite asset for the Liberals. Where he is known and is liked, support is solid.
Interestingly, having a negative view of Pierre Poilievre also pushes some voters toward the Liberals, but not nearly as powerfully. This isn’t shaping up to be a “stop Poilievre” campaign in the way past elections were framed around “stopping Harper.” The Liberal vote, at least for now, appears more driven by pro-Carney sentiment than anti-Conservative sentiment.
A Party Still Tied to Its Past
But it’s not all smooth sailing for the Liberals. One of the strongest negative predictors of a Liberal vote is a sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction. Those who feel Canada is on the wrong track are far less likely to vote Liberal, regardless of what they think about Carney.
This is a crucial insight. Even though Justin Trudeau is no longer Prime Minister, the weight of his government’s legacy still hangs over the Liberal brand. Voters’ dissatisfaction with the status quo remains a major barrier.
In this context, Carney’s challenge is clear: he’s had to convince voters that a vote for him is not a vote for more of the same. And so far, he’s done that sufficiently.
Education Helps, Demographics Less So
Support for the Liberals is also more likely among those with a university education. That fits with long-standing trends, particularly in urban and suburban ridings where progressive, university-educated voters have traditionally supported the Liberals in past elections. However, gender, age, and even indicators of precarity had limited influence on vote intention in the model – all else being equal.
That doesn’t mean these demographic groups aren’t important. It simply means they don’t independently predict a Liberal vote as strongly as issue-based perceptions or personal impressions of the leaders. Campaigns that rely solely on micro-targeting by age or gender might miss the bigger picture: people are choosing based on who they trust to manage the economy, guide the country through this unprecedent moment, and fix the problems they care most about.
So What Happens Next?
With two weeks left in the campaign, Carney and the Liberals have the advantage and are posed to win, despite several factors working against them.
On one hand, the electorate is deeply unhappy. Most Canadians believe the country is on the wrong track, and that’s a tough environment for any incumbent party—even with a new leader. But on the other hand, Carney has something rare: a profile that signals competence, a sense that he’s different from Trudeau, and the ability to speak credibly about the issues people care about most—Trump, cost of living, housing, and the economy.
The data shows that the Liberals aren’t winning today because people feel nostalgic for Trudeau-era policies or because they deeply dislike Poilievre. They’re winning because people believe Mark Carney might be the right person to get Canada back on course and defend it from the threats posed by Donald Trump. This statistical model clearly validates that.
That’s the story of this campaign. And if Carney can make that story clearer to more voters in the next two weeks, he can lock down the victory.
The Model at Work
Here’s how the model works in practice by simulating five different voter profiles. Each scenario tweaks a few perceptions to show how various beliefs influence the probability of someone voting Liberal.
When a person holds all favourable views—thinking Carney is the best on the economy and dealing with Trump, has a positive impression of Carney, a negative view of Poilievre, and believes the country is on the right track—the model predicts a 73% probability of voting Liberal. This is the “ideal” Liberal voter as imagined in the model. However, if we hold everything constant but remove the positive impression of Carney, the probability drops to 41%, showing just how critical Carney’s personal brand is to the party’s chances.
Things get even more precarious when someone does like Carney but also believes the country is off on the wrong track. Even with positive perceptions elsewhere, the probability falls to 56%. This underscores a key vulnerability: dissatisfaction with the direction of the country still weighs heavily on Liberal chances—even when Carney is otherwise well-regarded.
Now imagine a voter who thinks Carney is only strong on the economy but doesn’t hold a negative view of Poilievre, isn’t impressed with his ability to deal with Trump, and believes the country is off track. Their probability of voting Liberal drops sharply to just 23%.
Finally, when none of these positive traits are present, the odds bottom out at 2%.
These scenarios demonstrate how perceptions of leadership, competence on key issues, and the mood of the country work together—and how pivotal it is for the Liberals to connect on all three fronts
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,900 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 3 to 8, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
Binary Logistic Regression
To identify the key predictors of support for the Liberal Party under Mark Carney’s leadership, we used a binary logistic regression model. This statistical technique estimates the likelihood that a respondent chooses a particular outcome—in this case, voting Liberal—based on a set of independent variables.
Unlike linear regression, which predicts a continuous outcome, logistic regression is used when the dependent variable is binary (e.g., support vs. no support). The model calculates the probability that an individual will vote Liberal, based on factors such as personal impressions of the leaders, issue priorities, demographic characteristics, and views on the state of the country.
The coefficients from the model represent the change in the log-odds of voting Liberal associated with each predictor, holding all other variables constant. A positive coefficient indicates an increased likelihood of voting Liberal, while a negative coefficient suggests a decreased likelihood.
This method allows us to isolate the individual impact of each factor and identify which attributes are most strongly associated with support for the Liberals—offering a more precise understanding of what’s driving voter behaviour in the current election context.
While traditional R-squared (as used in linear regression) doesn’t directly apply to logistic regression, we use pseudo R-squared measures to assess model fit.
- Nagelkerke’s R-squared (0.5932) is an adjusted version of the Cox & Snell R-squared, scaled to range between 0 and 1. It suggests that the model explains approximately 59% of the variation in vote intention—indicating strong explanatory power for a social science model.
- McFadden’s rho-squared (0.5811) is another commonly used pseudo R-squared that compares the fit of the full model against a null (intercept-only) model. Values above 0.4 are typically considered indicative of a very good model fit.
Both values suggest this logistic model provides a robust and meaningful explanation for what drives someone to vote Liberal in this election scenario.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Are men and women voting differently this election?
Last week comments from Pierre Poilievre about biological clocks sparked two conversations; one about the validity of these comments for young Canadians, and another about the messenger. Before the election kicked off officially the Conservatives had been performing well among both men and women. Here we dive into how things are playing out in the election campaign thus far.
The results in this release are taken from four surveys conducted since the campaign began. A survey of n=1,487 18+ adults in Canada from March 17th to 20th (Wave 1), a survey of n=1,800 18+ adults in Canada March 24th to 26th (Wave 2), and a survey of n=1,763 18+ adults in Canada March 31st to April 3rd(Wave 3), and n=1,900 18+ adults in Canada April 3rd to 8th (Wave 4).
Vote Intention
Vote intention has shifted towards the Liberals for both men and women since the start of the campaign- it’s the starting points that are different.
At the start of the campaign, the Liberals and Conservatives were tied among women, 31% voting Liberal and 32% Conservative. As the campaign has moved along, support has consistently grown for the Liberals, 2-3 points per week. They now lead at 35%. This vote share has been pulled from the Conservatives, but also from the NDP who’ve dropped 4 points among women since the campaign began.
For men, the shift is similar, but with a different story. At the start of the campaign, the Conservatives led 7-points ahead of the Liberals. Today, they are essentially tied. Unlike women, the growth in Liberal vote has come almost entirely (and continues to come) from Conservatives.
Accessible Voters
Accessible voter pools also differ slightly.
For men, the accessible voter pool looks nearly identical for the Conservatives and Liberals. Its just over 50% for both parties- and both parties have secured about a third of men who say they are considering one party but not the other.
For women, there is a greater preference towards the Liberals. Among women the Liberals have a bigger accessible voter pool overall, but also a larger cohort who say they would vote for the Liberals, but not for the Conservatives.
Leader Likeability
Since the start of the campaign, impressions of Pierre among women have remained stable but negative. Around half have a negative impression of the leader- a third have a positive impression. So far it seems the campaign has had little impact, from a gendered lens at least. On his own, the likeability of Pierre remains consistent.
However, when compared to Carney, these numbers don’t look as promising. At the start of the campaign, Carney was more likeable among women than Poilievre, but now there is also a larger, 10-point difference in positive impressions between the two leaders. 36% have a positive impression of Poilievre, and 46% a positive impression of Carney.
This isn’t just a problem for Poilievre among women. While impressions of the two leaders started out the same in the first week of the campaign, Carney is also becoming more likeable among men. 48% of men have a positive impression, 7-points higher than impressions of Poilievre at the same time, and an 8-point increase in positive impressions since the start of the campaign.
Where Pierre’s biggest problem with women lies is in relatability. Neither federal leader is particularly relatable for men or women, but the gender differences are much more stark for Poilievre.
39% of men say Poilievre understands people like them, among women this is 8 points lower. And 38% of men say Poilievre ‘shares my values’ this drops to 29% among women.
On the other hand, there are some gender differences for Carney as well. While men are more likely to state that he is smart (64% among men, 57% among women), they also find him a lot more fake (34%) and untrustworthy (37%) than women.
It is also worth noting that neither leader is seen as particularly likeable. Less than half say Carney or Poilievre is friendly- and even fewer (only a third) see either leader as compassionate.
Top Issues
For both men and women, this is still very much a cost-of-living election. President Trump also plays an equal role in deciding one’s vote between men and women. There are some differences but they are farther down the list; things like growing the economy, housing affordability, public services and the federal budget deficit and debt. Compared to the deep divide by generation, men and women will largely be voting on the same issues this election.
The Upshot
The Liberal lead is stronger among women than men, but this has largely come from a collapsing NDP vote share, not pulled from the Conservatives. And for now, vote intention looks similar between men and women.
There are however differences in how the leaders are perceived. For Poilievre his challenge is his relatability and women. Women are just a lot less likely to find him relatable than men are- likely why his comments last week have sparked some debate.
But Carney has his own challenges too- for him it is with men who find him less trustworthy and fake. Carney also has a much larger base of Canadians who are neutral- and need more time to form impressions either way.
In the coming weeks of the campaign, it’s Carney’s impressions I will be watching most closely. Aside from being labeled as ‘smart’ there is a lot of wiggle room on the rest of his personality. His performance at the debates and along campaign trail will be formative moments if Canadians are as tuned in as they say they are- and there is still time for impressions to form, and change.
Methodology
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the surveys from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
Wave 1: n=1,487 adults, conducted from March 17th to 20th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.56%, 19 times out of 20.
Wave 2: n=1,800 adults, conducted from March 24th to 26th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.
Wave 3: n=1,763 adults, conducted from March 31st to April 3rd, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.33%, 19 times out of 20.
Wave 4: n=1,900 adults, conducted from April 3rd to 8th, 2025. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.25%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
All surveys were paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 6
At about the halfway point of the campaign, a new poll conducted entirely after Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs last week finds the Liberals opening up a six point lead over the Conservatives. The survey of 1,900 Canadian adults was conducted from April 3 to 8, 2025.
For the first time in the campaign, we find the Liberals opening up a statistically significant lead nationally over the Conservatives. If an election were held at the time of the survey, the Liberals would get 42% compared with 36% for the Conservatives and 11% for the NDP. Since our last survey, the Liberals are up 3 while the Conservatives are down 3.
The Liberal lead holds even among those most certain to vote. Among likely voters, we have the Liberals at 43% and the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP is at 10%.
Regionally, the Liberals lead by 10 in Ontario, by 37 in Atlantic Canada, and by 19 in Quebec. In B.C., the Conservatives are ahead by 7, while in Alberta, the Conservatives lead by 29.
The Liberals are now ahead or tied with the Conservatives across all age groups. They lead by 7 among 18 to 29 year olds, by 4 among 30 to 44 year olds, are tied among those aged 45 to 59, and lead by 14 among those over 60.
They have also opened up a 17-point lead among those with a university degree, are ahead by 3 among college graduates, and trail by 3 among those with lower levels of formal education.
The Composition of the Liberal Coalition
When we look at who makes up the current Liberal coalition, based on their past voting behaviour, 61% of the current coalition voted Liberal in 2021, 20% didn’t vote in 2021, 8% voted NDP, and 7% voted Conservative.
This reinforces the fact that the Liberals have largely reconstituted the group who voted for them in 2021 and built on it by attracting almost equally from the Conservatives and the NDP.
Almost Half of Canadians Now Think the Liberals Will Win the Election
Today, 47% of Canadians think the Liberals will win the election, up 4 points from last week and up 15 since mid-March. 30% think the Conservatives will win and only 5% think the NDP will.
When we dig a bit deeper and ask whether the outcome will be close or not, we find that 46% think the Liberals will win and 31% think it will be close. Another 23% think the Conservatives will win with only 7% thinking the Conservatives will win by a lot. 17% think it’s a 50/50 coin flip while 15% are unsure how to describe the election.
Leader Favourability and Perceptions
Mark Carney’s net favourability hits +19 (47% positive, 28% negative), up five points from last week. While still divisive, Pierre Poilievre’s net score is not overly negative, but still no where near where Carney is today at -6 (38% positive, 44% negative).
On preferred Prime Minister, Carney now leads by seven points (41% vs. 34%). Carney is preferred as Prime Minister by 17 in Atlantic Canada, by 20 in Quebec, by 8 in Ontario, and by 6 in British Columbia.
The Upshot: Liberals now clearly favoured
Our newest polling—conducted after Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement and the removal of the carbon price in provinces where the federal backstop was in place—shows the Liberals surging ahead with a six-point lead over the Conservatives. If the election were held today, the Liberals would capture 42% of the vote against 36% for the Conservatives, with the NDP at 11%. Not only have the Liberals gained three points over the past week (while the Conservatives shed three), but that advantage extends among likely voters, widening slightly to 43% versus 37%. Regionally, the Liberals now lead in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, and Quebec by solid margins, while the Conservatives retain control in Alberta and carry a more modest edge in British Columbia. The Liberals are also either leading or running even among every age group, suggesting a broader demographic coalition behind Mark Carney.
Beyond vote intention, public perception appears to favour the Liberals. Nearly half of Canadians now predict a Liberal win—a 15-point jump since mid-March—and Carney’s net favourability has climbed to +19, positioning him well against Pierre Poilievre’s net -6. Carney’s lead on the “preferred Prime Minister” measure has grown to seven points, buttressed by double-digit advantages in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, and a comfortable edge in Ontario. Demographically, the Liberals have solid support from university graduates (a 17-point lead) while still being competitive among college graduates and those who previously supported other parties. Notably, 61% of current Liberal supporters backed the party in 2021, but the party has also attracted both former NDP and Conservative voters, plus a slice of those who sat out the last election altogether.
This broader Liberal base, set against a somewhat diminished but still energized Conservative core, has shifted the momentum considerably. Conservative partisans remain committed, yet the continued attention to trade uncertainty and the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs appears to have played into the Liberals’ hands, reinforcing Carney’s image as a steady manager in turbulent times. With nearly two weeks left, Poilievre may still recapture cost-of-living concerns and an appetite for change if Trump’s trade tensions recede from daily headlines. But for now, the Liberals have the upper hand. Should these trends hold, Carney’s issue ownership, his lead among Boomers, and rising personal favourability may well become defining factors—setting the stage for a decisive outcome in this pivotal 2025 election.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,900 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 3 to 8, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Trust, Change, and Uncertainty: What’s Really Shaping the Canadian Vote?
Between March 20 and 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking. This wave explores how emotional drivers are shaping vote intentions and leadership preferences in the lead-up to the election. As affordability pressures and global instability dominate public discourse, Canadians are increasingly dividing along two emotional lines: those driven by a scarcity mindset, focused on immediate cost-of-living relief and a desire to disrupt the status quo; and those shaped by a precarity mindset, motivated by uncertainty about the future and a longing for stability, competence, and reassurance. This article examines how these underlying emotional currents are influencing voter priorities, perceptions of leadership, and the path to victory for Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre.
What’s Driving the Vote? How Issues Are Shaping Canada’s 2025 Election
With the federal election underway, two issues have taken centre stage: affordability and Donald Trump. Affordability leads, with 34% of Canadians saying the cost of living will most influence their vote, while 19% cite Trump’s impact on Canada – highlighting how global uncertainty is shaping domestic decisions. The Conservatives lead among those focused on affordability (40% vs. 33% Liberal), while the Liberals dominate among voters prioritizing Trump’s impact (51% vs. 28% Conservative).
Still, nearly half of Canadians (47%) say another issue will be most important when they vote – proving that while affordability and Trump dominate the headlines, many voters are focused elsewhere. Among these other top issues, the Conservatives are favoured on jobs and the economy, taxes, and public safety, while the Liberals lead on healthcare, housing, climate change, and Canada-U.S. relations.
This contrast reveals a deeper divide in mindset. The Conservatives resonate with those in a scarcity mindset – voters seeking immediate relief and system disruption – while the Liberals connect with those in a precarity mindset, who are more focused on navigating uncertainty and restoring long-term stability. In a moment shaped by both economic pressure and global unease, this election will likely come down to which leader voters believe can best meet the moment they’re living through.
What Do Canadians Want from Their Next Leader? It Depends on the Lens
Canadians are divided on what the next Prime Minister should prioritize. One-third (34%) want a more independent, Canada-first approach to trade and economic policy, while 29% want a leader who will challenge elites and make life more affordable. Meanwhile, 18% prioritize rebuilding trust in government, and another 18% want a leader focused on global influence and managing geopolitical uncertainty.
Voting intentions appear to vary by priority. Those who prioritize a more independent, Canada-first approach lean Liberal (40% vs. 36% Conservative), while voters focused on affordability and challenging elites tilt slightly toward the Conservatives (35% vs. 32%). Conservatives also lead among those who say rebuilding trust and ensuring long-term domestic stability is most important (44% vs. 32% Liberal), while the Liberals dominate among voters who want to strengthen Canada’s global influence and navigate geopolitical uncertainty (51% vs. 35%).
Together, these findings highlight a growing divide in how Canadians see the role of leadership. The Conservatives are drawing support from voters who want to disrupt the status quo and regain control in the face of immediate pressures, while the Liberals are resonating with those who value long-term stability, global competence, and steady leadership. This signals that in the upcoming election, how a leader leads – disruptive versus stabilizing – may matter just as much as what they promise to do.
Stability or Disruption? Canadians Are Split on the Leadership They Want
In addition to being divided on what the next leader should prioritize, Canadians are also split on the kind of leader they believe the country needs. While 42% want someone who can bring stability and keep Canada on a steady path – even if change comes more slowly – only 18% prefer a leader who will shake up the system and make bold changes despite the uncertainty. Another 34% are looking for a balance: stability paired with meaningful reform.
This leadership divide is reflected in voter preferences. Mark Carney appeals to those who prioritize stability, earning 47% support among that group (vs. 31% for Poilievre), while Pierre Poilievre resonates with voters seeking disruption, winning 48% of those looking for bold change (vs. 27% for Carney).
This tension reflects the broader precarity mindset – where many Canadians, uncertain about their future, are craving reassurance. The question now is which leader can bridge the desire for calm with the need for change – and earn the trust of voters navigating a deeply uncertain moment.
The Upshot
As Canadians head toward a pivotal election in just 3 weeks, a clear divide has emerged between those intending to vote Conservative and those leaning Liberal – one that reflects not just political preferences, but fundamentally different worldviews. Pierre Poilievre has successfully tapped into a scarcity mindset, rallying voters who are most focused on immediate affordability, tax relief, and breaking down institutional barriers. These voters feel left behind by the system and want quick, tangible change. His message of disruption and control resonates strongly with those who see the present as unstable and the government as part of the problem.
In contrast, Mark Carney has gained traction among voters experiencing a precarity mindset – those who have concerns about the present but are more worried about what the future holds. These Canadians are navigating global uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and institutional instability. They are not necessarily demanding transformation, but instead, seeking a leader who offers competence, calm, and long-term reassurance.
For Poilievre, the challenge is to show that bold reform can come without further destabilizing the country – especially to voters feeling uncertain. For Carney, the opportunity lies in deepening trust among precarious voters while demonstrating that long-term planning doesn’t mean ignoring immediate struggles like affordability. Each leader has built strength within their respective mindset – scarcity and precarity – but winning may come down to who can bridge the two.
In a race defined as much by emotional climate as by policy, the leader who can meet Canadians where they are – acknowledging both their current frustrations and future anxieties – may ultimately earn their trust and their vote.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from March 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ada’s political future.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data Poll: Houston Government More Popular Now Than in November, 50% Approval in a Challenging Time.
We’re back with more polling results and analysis from Nova Scotia.
This time, we are sharing recent research on the provincial government’s performance, four months into the Houston government’s second mandate.
For our readers elsewhere in the country, here’s some quick background on Nova Scotia’s recent provincial election and the current political landscape: On November 26th 2024, Bluenosers gave Tim Houston’s Progressive Conservatives a second mandate, with Houston’s party winning the provincial election by a “landslide” and Claudia Chender’s New Democratic Party unseating Zach Churchill’s Liberals as the Official Opposition. Churchill has since resigned, and Derek Mombourquette is currently serving as the Liberal party’s Interim Leader. In February and March, there was a legislative session with a Throne speech, provincial budget, and various bills passed into law, including legislation designed to drive Nova Scotia’s resource economy and change some government responsibilities and functions. The government’s winter 2025 agenda generated some public support and criticism, making it the right time for us to test opinions about provincial politics again.
The results we are sharing today were collected through our new Nova Scotia omnibus survey with 600 adult Nova Scotians. Clients in Nova Scotia and beyond can now add questions to our Nova Scotia omnibus, giving you the data and insights you need to make good decisions during this uncertain time.
So how are Nova Scotians feeling about provincial politics and the direction of the province this winter? As you’ll see, Tim Houston’s PCs are more popular now than they were at the end of November. Claudia Chender’s NDP have also gained a little bit of ground in recent months, now sitting four points ahead of where they finished the election.
Everything we’ve collected suggests that Nova Scotians are happy with the electoral decisions they made last fall.
Here are the detailed results!
EQUAL NUMBER SAY N.S. HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AS THE WRONG DIRECTION
What’s the political mood in Nova Scotia right now?
The answer is: Satisfied and dissatisfied.
As our regular readers will know, we often ask right track – wrong track questions in our political polling to see whether respondents think things in the World, Canada, and their home province are headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track.
Right now, as many people think things in Nova Scotia are on the right track (36%) as the wrong track (36%), generating a net neutral on this question.
This balance stands in stark contract to how Nova Scotians are currently feeling about the direction of the country and the World – two other measures where public dissatisfaction far outweighs satisfaction.
Currently, just 10% of Nova Scotians think the World is headed in the right direction, and only 31% think Canada is on track, with much larger proportions thinking things are off-track (77% and 47%, respectively).
HOUSTON PCS HAVE 30 PT LEAD ON VOTE INTENTIONS
While Nova Scotians have complicated feelings about how things in the province are going, support for the Houston PC government remains strong. This is most evident in our measurement of current vote intentions.
When Nova Scotians are asked who they would vote for if a provincial election was held today, Houston’s PCs finish well ahead of the other parties.
Right now, the Houston PCs are at 56%. Chender’s NDP sit at 26%. And Mombourquette’s Liberals are at 13%.
For reference, the PCs earned 53% of the popular vote in the 2024 provincial election. The NDP earned 22% and the Liberals earned 23% of the popular vote.
This means that the governing party is more popular now than they were when Nova Scotians gave them a “supermajority” in the fall.
Chender’s NDP have also gained a little bit of ground in recent months, now sitting four points ahead of where they were in November; and the Liberal vote has bottomed out, making 13% their new floor.
HOUSTON’S PCS FAR AHEAD IN EVERY DEMO
When we slice-and-dice our current provincial vote data by other criteria, the party standings described above all hold.
Houston’s PCs remain far ahead of the other parties in every region of the province and demographic group.
Chender’s NDP finishes second in all segments, with Mombourquette’s Liberals consistently place third.
50% APPROVAL FOR HOUSTON GOVERNMENT IN A CHALLENGING TIME
As we often do in our political polling, we also asked Nova Scotians to rate the recent performance of the Houston government in general and in some specific areas, based on everything they’ve seen and heard in the past few months.
On the big test: Considerably more Nova Scotians approve (50%) than disapprove (22%) of the way that the Houston government is handing things in the province.
This level – 50% overall approval – is another strong result for Premier Houston and his party.
Newly re-elected leaders and parties often experience a softening of goodwill as they start the difficult work of implementing their election promises. That hasn’t happened here.
Larger, domestic and international events (like Justin Trudeau’s resignation and the chaos of the second Trump Presidency) as well as persistent concerns about affordability have also created tremendous anxiety in recent months — giving everybody new things to worry about and making it much harder to govern the province than anyone would have expected six months ago.
Achieving 50% approval is always a good showing (for any government, at any time), but in 2025, it seems like a high watermark.
GOVERNMENT APPROVAL VARIES IN SPECIFIC AREAS
When we dig a bit deeper and ask Nova Scotians how they think the Premier Houston and his Ministers are doing on advancing some key priorities, the results vary.
The Premier and his Ministers currently get 60% approval on dealing with the (new) realities of the second Trump presidency and the U.S. trade war; 51% approval on growing Nova Scotia’s economy; and 46% approval on improving healthcare.
Government approval is, however, less strong when Nova Scotians are asked to rate the Premier and his Ministers on some of the ways they are governing. Premier Houston and his Ministers get 39% approval on consulting and communicating with the public, 38% on managing the provincial budget, and 29% on spending taxpayer money.
Government approval on housing is also low (just 31%), with more people disapproving than approving of the Houston government’s performance on making housing more available and affordable – a big, complex problem that many Nova Scotians continue to care a lot about, even amidst the chaos of the second Trump Presidency and the U.S. trade war.
WHAT ABOUT PREMIER HOUSTON? HOW POPULAR IS HE THIS WINTER?
According to our latest polling, Premier Houston continues to be well-regarded, with more people having a positive impression than a negative impression of the current Premier, giving him a net impression score of +22 in the research we are releasing today.
Claudia Chender also remains popular, with a current net impression score of +17.
As you may remember, we also tested impressions of all of the provincial party leaders during the 2024 provincial election campaign. In our last Nova Scotia election poll, the Premier had a net impression score of +12, and Claudia Chender had a net impression of +26. If we compare those results to our current ones, Tim Houston is slightly more popular and Claudia Chender is slightly less popular than they were on the eve of the election.
What about the other provincial leaders?
Interim Liberal Leader Derek Mombourquette, and Green Leader Anthony Edmonds currently have net impressions of +3 and -2, respectively.
In sharp contrast, the American President currently has a net impression score of -70 in Nova Scotia. That low score demonstrates how incredibly unpopular Donald Trump is in this part of the country, with three-quarters of Nova Scotians saying they are “angry” about Trump’s tariffs in the same omnibus survey.
Please also check-out our recent Nova Scotia polling specifically on Trump’s Tariffs if you haven’t done so already. Link here.
34% APPROVAL OF CHENDER’S NDP AS OFFICIAL OPPOSITION
In the polling we’re releasing today, we also asked Nova Scotians to rate the performance of Chender’s NDP as the Official Opposition.
Four months into the job, Chender’s NDP gets 34% approval, with more Nova Scotians approving than disapproving of the NDP’s performance as the Official Opposition, generating a net positive.
This also seems like a good result for Chender and her party, especially given the larger, geo-political dynamics at work this winter, and the tremendous stress they’re causing in every part of the country.
The Upshot
What does this all mean for Nova Scotia’s political landscape?
Simply put: Tim Houston’s PCs remain the party to beat in Nova Scotia, buoyed by general confidence in their approach to dealing with Donald Trump and growing Nova Scotia’s economy in a challenging time.
Four months since the last provincial election, there are no signs that voters regret handing Houston’s PCs a stronger majority (a supermajority!). The Houston government’s focus on economic development, especially in the natural resources and energy sectors, also seems to strike many as a practical way to strengthen the economy as Donald Trump continues to threaten it.
While Trump’s words and actions are definitely creating anxiety in Nova Scotia, the Houston government seems focused on action, trusting that strategic investments and policy moves will help the province weather whatever storms come their way.
Right now, it looks like Houston’s PCs have found solid ground during an extremely challenging time, and if the current public opinion environment holds, they are likely to remain the governing party for quite some time.
Our latest provincial polling also shows that Claudia Chender’s NDP is meeting and exceeding expectations, finishing far ahead of the Liberals in current vote intentions and with Chender’s personal popularity remaining high. This also seems like good news for the Leader of the Opposition, as she continues to introduce herself to Nova Scotians and define her party’s positions across the province.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 600 adult Nova Scotians over the age of 18 from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
About Abacus Data
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives remain deadlocked at 39% each.
As we enter the third week of the 2025 federal campaign—and just days after “Liberation Day” (April 2), when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs—our latest Abacus Data poll provides a snapshot of the race at its midpoint. The overall top-line numbers remain remarkably stable, yet beneath the surface we observe important shifts in voter enthusiasm, leadership impressions, and growing confidence in the Liberals’ prospects.
Liberals and Conservatives are tied nationally
For a second straight week, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied with 39% support each, followed by the NDP at 11%. No other party garners more than 6% of the committed vote. While this statistical deadlock might suggest a purely even contest, it can be deceptive in a first-past-the-post system; where each vote is located often proves more telling than the raw percentage. Even so, these top-line figures alone confirm neither party has managed to break away.
The NDP’s persistent struggles at 11% underscore a continuing trend of centre-left voters coalescing under the Liberal banner. Jagmeet Singh faces limited time to re-energize or alter that dynamic in the weeks ahead.
Although the raw numbers remain unchanged, Conservative supporters now say they are more likely to vote than Liberal partisans. Compared to last week, the CPC has nudged ahead on “definite voter turnout,” going from slightly behind the Liberals to surpassing them (75% vs. 71%). That gap is small, but it’s worth monitoring. An uptick in Conservative motivation could, in a tight race, tip certain ridings their way.
A closer look at the provinces reveals several noteworthy developments:
Atlantic Canada: The Liberal lead hovers near 20 points, reflecting a region largely comfortable staying with Carney.
British Columbia: Remains a near tie between the two major parties, with the NDP lagging behind but still holding some regional strongholds.
Ontario: The Liberals have opened a 6-point lead, up from around 3 or 4 points a week ago. If that margin persists or grows, it could significantly boost the Liberals in seat-rich areas like the 905 and GTA.
Quebec: The Liberals stay on top, but the Conservatives have moved into second place—10 points behind the Liberals but outpacing the Bloc.
Despite that surge in Conservative motivation, the Liberals continue to expand their accessible voter pool, which is now over 55% nationally. This includes majorities in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia who say they would consider voting Liberal. By contrast, the Conservative pool stands at 51%—a respectable figure but one that has not grown in recent weeks.
This broader pool translates into more routes to victory for Mark Carney’s Liberals. It means they can pull together the votes they need in regions where the Conservative appeal is lower or where the NDP is less able to mount a challenge. The Conservatives, for their part, retain a strong base but may find themselves locked out of seat-determining ridings if they can’t persuade more undecided or second-choice voters.
The Desire for Change & Expected Election Outcome
We continue to see 54% of Canadians “definitely” wanting a change from the Liberals, essentially unchanged from last week. At the same time, 22% strongly prefer keeping the Liberals in power. While the overall appetite for change remains substantial, public sentiment about the outcome of the election has shifted: 43% believe the Liberals will ultimately win, compared to 33% expecting a Conservative government. This 10-point gap in perceived inevitability has grown from just a few weeks ago, when many still envisioned a Conservative victory.
Leader Favourability and Perceptions
Mark Carney’s net favourability hits +15 (45% positive, 30% negative), up four points from last week. Carney’s appeal remains broad, with older voters, women, and Atlantic Canadians particularly positive. While still divisive, Pierre Poilievre’s net score has improved slightly to -4 (38% positive, 42% negative). This subtle climb indicates that some negative impressions may be softening among certain demographics, though Poilievre remains polarizing.
On preferred Prime Minister, Carney leads by five points (38% vs. 33%), a margin unchanged from the previous wave. Carney’s prime-ministerial appeal appears strongest in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, whereas Poilievre does best in the Prairies.
Carney vs. Poilievre: The Leadership Gap
On personal qualities, Carney surpasses Poilievre by 15 points on “finding common ground,” by 7 on “standing up to a bully,” and by 8 on “helping manage your household expenses.” However, his lead on “captaining a ship through a rough storm” shrank from seven points down to three, indicating that Conservative efforts to question Carney’s real-world crisis credentials may be resonating slightly.
Issue Ownership
We see little movement on the issues:
- The Liberals lead by 10 points on dealing with Trump, by 5 on growing the economy, by 10 on representing Canada internationally, and by 7 on unity.
- The Conservatives lead by 8 on reducing the cost of living and by 7 on housing, both consistent with Poilievre’s focus on affordability.
The Upshot: Advantage Liberal Continues
Our latest research confirms that this 2025 federal race remains close and intensely competitive, with neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives able to break out beyond the 39% mark in committed support. While the tie in raw numbers might suggest a stalemate, the Liberals benefit from a broader voter pool and a notable lead in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada—key battlegrounds that could determine seat outcomes. At the same time, higher turnout intentions among Conservative partisans illustrate a formidable CPC base still determined to bring about change. If that base continues to harden, the Conservatives retain a path to victory, even if it is growing narrower by the day.
The core debate shaping voters’ choices is as much about Canada’s economic future as it is about its role on the global stage. Economic issues—from housing costs to inflation—remain top of mind for many, especially younger and middle-aged Canadians shouldering mortgages and daily living expenses. Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, are pressing these affordability concerns hard, hoping to capitalize on the 54% of Canadians who “definitely want change.” Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s unpredictable moves, including the reciprocal tariffs first threatened and then selectively retracted, have sharpened anxieties around national security and economic stability. Mark Carney and the Liberals have seized on that uncertainty to present Carney as the best “captain in a storm,” a narrative that aligns well with his improving personal favourability and the perception that Liberals are stronger on foreign policy.
With just under three weeks left until Canadians head to the polls, engagement is high, and the political environment remains fluid. Either a resurgence of Trump’s trade threats could reaffirm the Liberals’ message of steady leadership, or a lull in U.S. tensions might allow cost-of-living concerns to return to the fore, enabling Poilievre to reassert his “time for a change” theme. Meanwhile, the NDP’s persistent 11% suggests Jagmeet Singh is struggling to draw progressives from Carney. Should any unexpected development—be it economic, international, or a campaign misstep—emerge in the next few weeks, those small but crucial blocs of undecided voters and soft partisans may yet tip the balance. Given the stakes and the heightened voter interest, this campaign is set to deliver a lively, unpredictable finish—and whichever leader proves most adept at framing the ballot-box question will likely gain the edge in shaping Canada’s political future.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from March 31 to April 3, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Carney's French skills not good enough for many, poll shows – Toronto Star
Liberal Leader Mark Carney takes part in a television interview with Radio-Canada in Montreal on April 3, 2025. Shawn Pavlin THE CANADIAN PRESS … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/mark-carneys-french-skills-not-good-enough-for-a-prime-minister-say-a-third-of/article_4e6c6261-9f07-4fc2-a686-83737a4f94cc.html&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw1hPWVbmtoG9OMFDqVwErQX
For Gen Z this is still the cost-of-living election, but will they vote?
The inauguration of President Trump, tariff announcements and other commentary, and a new Prime Minister, have changed the landscape of Canadian politics, including our top issues. But for young Canadians, this is still a cost-of-living election. What remains to be seen is whether they will be motivated to turn out and vote.
The results in this release are taken from two surveys conducted since the campaign began. A survey of n=1,487 18+ adults in Canada from March 17th to 20th and a survey of n=1,800 18+ adults in Canada March 24th to 26th.
Top Issues
There are two clear top issues dominating this election cycle. Reducing the cost of living, which has been a top issue for some time, is a top two issue for 47% of Canadians. Dealing with President Trump is now the number two overall issue for Canadians at 35%. All other issues trail behind these two: growing the economy at 19%, making housing more affordable at 19%, improving the healthcare system at 16%, and making Canada a better place to live at 15%.
Over the first week of the campaign these top issues have only become more important. Cost of living rising two points (still no statistically significant changes here) and dealing with President Trump and the impact of his decisions seeing a similar bump.
What is significant however is how this has pulled attention away from other issues. The collective increase of 4 points among these top two issues have meant things like healthcare have fallen down the list since the start of the campaign.
But this list varies considerably by generation. The top issue for Boomers is dealing with President Trump (49%), ahead of everything else, including cost of living by a significant margin.
The landscape looks considerably different for Gen Z, who place cost of living as their top issue (46%), followed by housing affordability (33%). Dealing with President Trump is a distant third at 23%. There is a 15-point gap between how much importance Gen Z places on President Trump vs. everyone else.
Gen Z also places more emphasis on the environment in their vote compared to others.
Vote Intention
Despite these differences vote intention between generations is looking similarly tied.
The Liberals lead among Gen Z and Boomers, and are in a much tighter race than they were in December among millennials and Gen X. Among Gen Z, the pull of votes towards the Liberals is clearly coming from the NDP vote. They have dropped 14 points among this generation since December.
But among older voters, especially Boomers, the pull towards the Liberals is from both sides.
Leader Impressions
Younger Canadians tend to have softer impressions of Pierre Poilievre. Since the campaign began, impressions among Gen Z and Millennials are net positive, by a small margin. But Boomers feel particularly negative about Mr. Poilievre with a -19 net impression.
Boomers’ impression of Mark Carney is the opposite. A +19 impression of the Prime Minister, and the generation who has the most positive impressions of the leader.
Carney is also highly favoured among Gen Z, 38% have a positive impression and 22% a negative impression (the lowest negatives among all generations).
Turnout
One of the biggest questions in this election remains voter turnout. Voter turnout has consistently been higher among older Canadians and the data is showing this trend is likely to continue. 84% of Boomers say they are certain to vote this election, compared to 42% of Gen Z.
If these turnout numbers hold, the election is likely to be decided by generations other than Gen Z- which means it is shaping up to be an election about Canada-US relations.
The Upshot
Vote intention is looking similar among generations so far, but this election is about a very different list of issues for Gen Z compared to everyone else. Gen Z remains in a cost-of-living crisis as well as a reality where many big milestones, like purchasing a house, remain out of reach. They have remained more consistently in the pre-Trump reality, of this being a cost-of-living election.
But other, older generations have moved on and are placing increasing focus on Canada-US relations. Right now, these older generations are also far more motivated to vote, paying more attention to what is happening and as a result, more successfully shaping the election narrative and likely the election outcome, too – it’s not just an election issue, it’s a national priority.
Methodology
The results in this release are taken from two surveys conducted since the campaign began. A survey of n=1,487 18+ adults in Canada from March 17th to 20th and a survey of n=1,800 18+ adults in Canada March 24th to 26th.
The first survey was conducted with 1,487 Canadian adults from March 17 to 20, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.54%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
The second survey was conducted with 1,800 Canadian adults from March 24 to 26, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
About Abacus Data
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.