Are Albertans sold on leaving CPP? Poll suggests tough sell – Toronto Star
“The premier is potentially playing with fire here,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “If she does intend to go through, she’s going to have to …
How the Housing Crisis Is Impacting the Goals and Well-Being of Younger Canadians
As part of a month-long detailed investigation of the housing crisis in Canada, Abacus Data and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) conducted a large, national survey of 3,500 Canadian adults (18+) from September 22 to 28, 2023. In our first report, we examine how the housing crisis has impacted Canada’s youngest cohort – those aged 18 to 34 (n=863). The data reveals a story of profound challenges faced by these young Canadians that extends far beyond financial struggles, delving into the heart of their lives and aspirations.
Concerns with the Housing Market
The concern about the state of housing in Canada is evident among young Canadians. When contemplating the key issues that should top the federal government’s agenda, a resounding 89% of young Canadians emphasize that ensuring housing affordability should be a top priority. Correspondingly, a significant four out of five express their unease about housing affordability, while 62% have seen their concerns intensify in recent months. Considering these pressing concerns, it becomes imperative to delve deeper into the burden this situation places on young Canadians.
Financial Struggles: A Quiet Burden
The current housing crisis has had a significant impact on young Canadians, presenting them with significant financial challenges. Notably, an alarming 47% of young Canadians find themselves burdened with moderate to high levels of debt, a striking contrast to their older counterparts. Additionally, the data paints a sobering picture, revealing that nearly two-thirds (60%) of young Canadians are currently grappling with the precarious reality of living paycheck to paycheck, signifying an unsettling financial instability.
Amidst these financial pressures, the need to adjust monthly budgets due to housing expenses has become an unfortunate reality for 53% of young Canadians. They reported having to make financial adjustments to food and groceries (68%), emergency savings (57%), investments (49%), and debt payments (51%).
Worries About Housing Payments and Future Stability
Housing payments continue to be a source of concern for young Canadians. An overwhelming 89% of young Canadians have worried about paying their mortgage or rent in recent months (among those who have a mortgage/pay rent). This enduring financial unease underscores the persistent nature of the housing crisis.
Adding to their worries is the lingering uncertainty that casts a long shadow over their future. An overwhelming four in five (81%) express deep-seated concerns regarding the enduring repercussions of the housing market on their financial stability, a sentiment that resonates far more profoundly among young Canadians than their older counterparts.
Personal Impact: A Complex Reality
For these young Canadians, the housing crisis isn’t merely a financial struggle – it’s impacting their mental health and overall well-being.
Nearly two-thirds of young Canadians (61%) revealed that their financial situation, shaped by the housing crisis, negatively affects their mental health. Further, the survey also finds that the housing crisis has impacted nearly every facet of young Canadians’ lives, including their overall quality of life (73%), finances (76%), physical health (59%), family dynamics (56%), and social lives (58%) more than any other age group.
The housing crisis isn’t only influencing day-to-day life; it’s shaping major life decisions. A significant 55% of young Canadians who intend to have children admit that it has influenced the decision and timing of starting a family. Some are choosing to have fewer or no children (27%), while others are temporarily postponing family planning (28%).
The looming housing crisis is also driving young people to reconsider where they live and work. Most striking, younger Canadians are most likely to report that they are considering moving to find more affordable housing. Specifically, 46% are contemplating a move within their province, 41% are considering changing provinces, and 34% are even pondering leaving Canada all together. The risk of a brain-drain from unaffordable communities, provinces, and Canada entirely is real and acute.
A Resounding Message – Governments Haven’t Done Enough
The message from young Canadians is unequivocal: governments have not done enough to address the housing crisis. This sentiment cuts across all levels of government—federal, provincial, and municipal —painting a stark picture of disillusionment with the efforts made thus far. An overwhelming 63% express dissatisfaction with the federal government’s response, while 62% believe that provincial governments have fallen short. Meanwhile, 58% feel that municipal governments have not done enough to tackle the crisis head-on. This collective critique underscores the urgent need for more robust, comprehensive measures at all levels.
A Unified Call for Priority and Action
Young Canadians have spoken with one voice when it comes to the priority placed on housing affordability. A resounding 77% assert that it should be a top priority for the federal government, while 76% hold the same view for provincial governments. At the municipal level, 70% emphasize the importance of prioritizing housing affordability. However, a disconcerting perception gap emerges when evaluating the government’s current actions. Only 51% believe that the federal government is treating housing affordability as a top priority today, while 50% believe their provincial government sees it as a top priority, and a slightly lower 47% share the same sentiment about their municipal governments. This disconnect underscores a sense of frustration and skepticism about the government’s commitment to translating priorities into tangible actions.
Dissatisfaction with Leadership – A Shared Sentiment
Across all levels of government, young Canadians express profound dissatisfaction with the leadership’s response to the housing crisis. An overwhelming 73% express dissatisfaction with the federal government, while 72% share the same sentiment regarding provincial governments. Municipal governments also face considerable discontent, with 69% of young Canadians dissatisfied with their leadership. This collective frustration underscores a growing impatience with the perceived ineffectiveness of government efforts.
Blame Allocation – Federal, Provincial, and Municipal Roles
Young Canadians exhibit a nuanced understanding of shared responsibility in the housing crisis. While they firmly place blame on the federal government (49%) for its role in the crisis, they also hold provincial governments (40%) accountable. Only 11% believe that municipal governments are more to blame, suggesting a recognition that housing affordability is a challenge requiring broader, higher-level government intervention.
Seeking Solutions
Among the solutions that resonate most strongly with young Canadians is the expansion of the Home Buyers Plan for first-time homebuyers, with a significant 60% supporting increasing the plan’s limit from $35,000 to $50,000. This suggests that young Canadians are acutely aware of the need to make homeownership more accessible, especially for those taking their first steps into the real estate market.
Interestingly, young Canadians diverge from older generations on certain housing solutions. They are more inclined to support measures such as limiting tax-free gains on primary residences (47%) and changing the mortgage stress test to ensure buyers can afford an uninsured mortgage if interest rates rise (44%). These unique approaches reflect a willingness to explore unconventional avenues to tackle the housing crisis head-on.
Incentives and Policies – A Comprehensive Approach
Young Canadians understand that solving the housing crisis requires a multifaceted approach. They align with older age groups in supporting a range of incentives and policies. A substantial 63% express support for a First Home Savings Account, while 58% endorse the Housing Accelerator Fund. The Underused Housing Tax, Home Buyers Plan, and fostering collaboration among all levels of government and housing stakeholders also garner strong support, all with the aim of finding holistic solutions to the housing crisis.
The Upshot
This research vividly highlights that the housing crisis in Canada transcends mere economic challenges. It has evolved into a deeply personal and emotional journey for young Canadians, profoundly shaping their lives, influencing critical decisions, and imposing significant financial strains. Beyond the statistics and figures, it’s a multifaceted challenge that is redefining their very existence, compelling them to navigate difficult choices, and frustratingly delaying crucial life milestones.
The data underscores that young Canadians are not merely asking but demanding swift and comprehensive actions to address the housing crisis. Their profound dissatisfaction with government responses, their unwavering insistence on housing affordability as a top priority, and their collective attribution of blame emphasize the urgent need to confront this pressing issue head-on. The housing crisis is not an abstract concept for them; it’s a stark reality that has significantly influenced their political perspectives, igniting a fervor for immediate public policy solutions.
As the concerns over Canada’s housing crisis continue to grow among young Canadians, their frustration and disillusionment may find expression in political action. This potential surge in political engagement could herald a transformation in voting patterns, with younger citizens increasingly throwing their support behind candidates who champion affordable housing policies. Such a shift could wield considerable influence over electoral outcomes.
Furthermore, the housing crisis could give rise to inter-generational tensions, as older generations, who secured housing more easily, may be perceived as benefiting from policies that disadvantage younger ones. These tensions could permeate political debates and policy discussions, creating a dynamic that demands careful consideration.
Lastly, the enduring impact of the housing crisis may extend beyond the present moment. It could shape the long-term political engagement and ideologies of young Canadians. If a substantial portion of this demographic continues to grapple with economic challenges stemming from housing costs, their political convictions and participation could be molded for years to come, influencing their preferences for specific policies and political parties.
Overall, Canada’s housing crisis among 18-34-year-olds is not just a policy challenge; it’s a political awakening. Its impact on politics will depend on various factors, including the severity of the crisis, the responsiveness of political leaders, and the effectiveness of measures taken to address it. As young Canadians demand change, the political realm must listen to their call, recognizing that their votes, aspirations, and perspectives possess the power to transform the course of Canadian politics.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,500 Canadian adults from September 22 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.66%, 19 times out of 20.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of those aged 18 to 34 (n=863) is +/- 3.34%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
About Abacus Data
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The Rock's crumbling support for the Liberals should be a wake-up call – The Hill Times
A recent Abacus Data survey found the federal Conservatives had a nine-point lead over the Liberals in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Newfoundland and Labrador Liberals and PCs are statistically tied as the cost of living and healthcare are in focus
From September 19 to 25, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a representative online survey of 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey asked questions about both federal and provincial politics. This is the second report looking at provincial politics. On Thursday we released a look at federal politics in the province.
If a provincial election was held today, the NL Liberals would get 40% of the vote followed by the PCs at 38% and the NDP at 21%. Compared with the results of the last provincial election, the Liberals are down 8, the PCs down 1 and the NDP is up 13.
The Liberals are well ahead in western Newfoundland and Labrador, while the PCs are well ahead in eastern and central Newfoundland. On the Avalon Peninsula, the Liberals and PCs are statistically tied.
Demographically, the Liberals are ahead among women while the PCs lead among men. The PCs have a lead among those aged 45 to 59 while the Liberals are well ahead among those aged 60 and over. The two parties are about even among younger residents with the NDP doing best among those under 30.
When asked to rate the overall performance of the provincial government led by Andrew Furey, 37% approve while 35% disapprove. This is much better than how people feel about the performance of the federal government where 26% approve and 49% disapprove.
Views of the party leaders in Newfoundland and Labrador are all net positive. Premier Furey’s net favourable rating is +5 with 38% having a positive impression and 33% having a negative view.
NDP leader Jim Dinn’s net favourable is +17 with 30% positive and 13% negative. Interim PC Party leader David Brazil has a net favourable of +14 with 28% positive and 14% negative.
The top issues in the province are overwhelmingly the cost of living and healthcare. When asked to select the top three issues facing the province, 84% select the cost of living, 74% select healthcare, and 43% select housing affordability.
Cost of living is a top issue because so many residents are either living paycheque to paycheque or falling behind.
When asked to rate the provincial government’s performance in several policy areas, evaluations were mixed when it comes to education, growing the economy, and improving infrastructure. Views were more decidedly negative when it comes to managing the healthcare system, dealing with housing, and responding to the rising cost of living.
When asked specifically what is to blame for the rising close of living, NL residents point to multiple factors, but far more believe companies charging more to make more profits deserves much of the blame. Decisions by the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau, global supply chain shortages, and the pandemic are also frequently cited as major factors. Only 1 in 5 NL residents think decisions made by the provincial government and Premier Andrew Furey are to blame a lot.
When asked which factor is most to blame, 36% blame companies charging more to make more profit, 31% blame decisions by the federal government and Justin Trudeau., 16% blame the COVID-19 pandemic while only 3% blame decisions by the provincial government.
The PC Party Leadership Election
About 1 in 5 residents say they are following the PC Party leadership election very or somewhat closely. Among those who support the PC Party currently, that rises to 29%.
When asked their views on the three leadership candidates, most said they either didn’t know the candidates well enough to have an opinion or had a neutral impression.
Tony Wakeham had the highest awareness and net favourable while Lloyd Parrot had the lowest familiarity, and Manning had has the lowest net favourable.
Among PC supporters (not members), the results were somewhat similar. While PC supporters were more familiar with the candidates, impressions of all three candidates were generally positive. Tony Wakeham had more intensely positive views than the other two but Wakeham (+33), Manning (+31), and Parrot (+25) all had quite favourable net impressions.
When PC supporters were asked which candidate they would vote for if they were voting in the leadership election, 29% selected Wakeham, 16% Manning, and 7% Parrot. 48% said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “Like in other jurisdictions across Canada, the cost of living is the focus for people living in Newfoundland and Labrador and no government is immune from it’s impact on political support.
Almost most residents feel that the provincial government is not handling that issue well, Premier Furey’s approval rating remains above water – more approve than disapprove. This is in sharp contrast with how people feel about the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau.
Premier Furey is generally well liked half-way into his second term as premier.
If an election was held today, it’s likely that we would see none of the parties winning an outright majority of seats as the Liberal vote share is down, the PC vote is steady with the last election while the NDP vote is up significantly.
So far, it appears the PC leadership election has not captivated the province. But if PC supporters had their choice, Tony Wakeham is the more favoured candidate.”
Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador from September 19 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Newfoundland and Labrador’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Poll shows federal Conservatives take the lead in this province – NTV
Support for the federal Conservatives now stands at 42 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador, while the Liberals are at 33 per cent and the NDP at 23 … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://ntv.ca/poll-shows-federal-conservatives-take-the-lead-in-this-province/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw0j9yvn6w53Zt4eUqnqRCcf
Federal Conservatives lead by 9 in Newfoundland and Labrador
From September 19 to 25, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a representative online survey of 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey asked questions about both federal and provincial politics. This is the first report looking at federal politics in the province. On Monday, we will look at the state of provincial politics in the province.
If a federal election was held today, the federal Conservatives would get 42% of the vote in Newfoundland and Labrador with the Liberals at 33% and the NDP 23%. Compared with the 2021 election results, this represents a 15-point drop for the Liberals, a 9-point gain for the Conservatives, and a 6-point gain for the NDP.
The Conservatives are well ahead in eastern and central Newfoundland, are tied with the Liberals in western Newfoundland and Labrador, and are slightly ahead of the NDP on the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s. The Conservatives are ahead among those aged 18 to 29 and 45 to 59, and statistically tied with the other parties among those aged 30 to 44. The Liberals lead by 14-points among those aged 60 and over.
Among me, the Conservatives lead by 18 while the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP are in a tight three-way race with women.
The Conservative lead across the province is based on several factors.
First, the federal government’s net approval rating is -23 with 26% approving and 49% disapproving. Most worrisome for the federal Liberals, those who strongly disapprove are nine times more likely than those who strongly approve (28% vs. 3%).
Second, Justin Trudeau is by far the least popular leader in the province. 50% have a negative view of the Prime Minister compared with 29% who have a positive view (net = -20). This is slightly better than the national average for the Prime Minister, but not substantially so.
In contrast, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s net favourable rating is +20 (40% positive and 20% negative) while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers viewing him favourably and unfavourably (positive 33% vs. negative 34%).
The two federal cabinet ministers in NL have better net favourables than the Prime MInister. Seamus O’Regan is at +6 (32% positive vs. 26% negative) while Minister Gudie Hutchings is at -6 (18% positive vs. 24% negative). Minister O’Regan is more widely known than Minister Hutchings.
The top issues in the province are overwhelmingly the cost of living and healthcare. When asked to select the top three issues facing the province, 84% select the cost of living, 74% select healthcare, and 43% select housing affordability.
Cost of living is a top issue because so many residents are either living paycheque to paycheque or falling behind.
When asked to rate the federal government’s performance in several policy areas, evaluations were mixed when it comes to climate change, growing the economy, and improving roads and infrastructure. But on housing and the cost of living, about 3 in 4 NL residents say the federal government has done a poor job or a very poor job on those two issues.
When asked specifically what is to blame for the rising close of living, NL residents point to multiple factors, but far more believe companies charging more to make more profits deserves much of the blame. Decisions by the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau, global supply chain shortages, and the pandemic are also frequently cited as major factors. Only 1 in 5 NL residents think decisions made by the provincial government and Premier Andrew Furey are to blame a lot.
When asked which factor is most to blame, 36% blame companies charging more to make more profit, 31% blame decisions by the federal government and Justin Trudeau., 16% blame the COVID-19 pandemic while only 3% blame decisions by the provincial government.
Not surprisingly there is a strong correlation between voting intention and blame. Liberal and NDP voters are more likely to blame companies raising prices to make more profit and the pandemic or global supply chain shortages. Interestingly, only 18% of NDP supporters blame the federal government for the rising cost of living compared with 60% of Conservative supporters who feel the same way.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “The federal political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador mirrors the mood and opinions of Canadians across the country. Impressions of the federal government’s performance overall, its performance on key issues, and how people feel about the Prime Minister are overly negative. This, along with fairly positive impressions of Pierre Poilievre have created an environment where the Conservatives now lead the Liberals. The last time the Conservatives (or a conservative party) won the popular vote in Newfoundland and Labrador was in 1984 during the Mulroney landslide win.
It’s clear the cost of living is the focus for most voters in the province. Many blame the federal government the most for the rising cost of living and even those who don’t believe the federal government and Trudeau haven’t handled the issue well.
The weakness of the federal Liberals in what has been a consistently strong province for the party federally and the remaining province governed by Liberals provincially underscores just challenging the environment is for them today.”
Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador from September 19 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Newfoundland and Labrador’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Return to the House of Commons: Hot topics likely to be discussed | CTV’s Question Period
Abacus Data Chair & CEO discusses what hot topics are expected to come up in the House of Commons as politicians return on Monday.
Opinions on Housing and Climate: Do Canadians Want a Climate-Centred Fix to Housing?
On behalf of the Task Force for Housing and Climate, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,959 Canadians (18+) from August 29 to September 4, 2023, to assess perceptions related to the housing crisis and climate change.
In recent months, Canadians across the country have felt the effects of climate related events (e.g., forest fires, floods, extreme heat, high winds) as well as ongoing challenges associated with housing affordability (e.g., rising costs, interest rates, availability, etc.). In this survey, we delved into the concerns regarding climate change and housing while also assessing the level of interest in implementing a climate-focused solution to housing problems.
The results of the latest research underscore the intricate and interlinked character of public concerns in Canada. There is a clear priority placed on resolving housing affordability issues without compromising our climate objectives. The data reinforces the pivotal roles of industry, government, builders, and developers in addressing these pressing challenges.
CONCERNS RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE:
Results revealed that a significant majority of respondents, 76%, expressed concern about climate change, with only 8% reporting no concern at all. Moreover, in recent months, there has been a noticeable shift in Canadian attitudes towards climate change. Approximately 43% of Canadians have seen an uptick in their level of concern regarding its impacts. In contrast, nearly half of the population (48%) indicated that their level of concern has remained steady, with only a minority (8%) expressing a decrease in concern. These outcomes underscore the gravity of the climate change problem in the Canadian consciousness.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CONCERNS:
Much like climate change, housing affordability is a significant worry for Canadians, with over 85% expressing concerns about it. In recent months, more than half of Canadians (53%) have seen an increase in their level of concern regarding housing affordability, with noteworthy spikes in concern observed in younger age groups, specifically those aged 18-29 (67%) and 30-44 (58%), were more likely to report heightened concern. Housing affordability has become a major concern for nearly 9 in 10 Canadians over the past year, driven by factors such as interest rates, availability, and affordability.
ADDRESSING HOUSING AFFORDABILITY WITHOUT COMPROMISING CLIMATE GOALS:
With increasing concerns relating to both climate change and housing, it is important to understand the dynamic between these two issues in the minds of Canadians. Results revealed that a significant portion of Canadians (62%) believe that it is important to address the housing affordability issue without compromising Canada’s climate goals.
When considering sustainable living, a large majority of respondents believe that we must find ways to address housing challenges in a way that doesn’t harm the environment. Specifically, results revealed that: 78% of respondents emphasize the importance of constructing housing in ways that minimize pollution contributing to climate change; and 4 in 5 Canadians (84%) believe it is crucial to develop new housing in a manner that is resilient to the impacts of climate change.
LEADERSHIP REQUIRED TO ACT:
When considering who should take leadership when addressing climate issues, the majority of respondents view industry (67%) and the federal government (65%) as the most important leaders in addressing climate change. Provincial (62%) and municipal governments (60%) are seen as being important, but to a slightly lesser degree than industry and the federal government.
Conversely, when addressing housing affordability, respondents view the provincial government (70%) and builders/developers (69%) as the primary leaders responsible. Additionally, 67% of respondents feel that the federal government should assume a leadership role in addressing housing affordability, with municipal governments at 69%. These findings indicate that Canadians believe that addressing housing affordability is a collective effort that involves all levels of government.
The Upshot
The current research underscores the intricate and interconnected landscape of public concerns in Canada. While it’s evident that Canadians express worries about both climate change and housing affordability, there’s a pronounced emphasis on the importance of tackling housing affordability without sacrificing our climate goals. This highlights their desire for a balanced approach that addresses affordability while simultaneously minimizing our environmental impact.
The data also emphasizes the crucial roles of industry, government, and builders/developers in addressing these issues. These results signify a notable shift in perspective regarding which level of government should take action to make a meaningful impact with Canadians increasingly looking to the federal government for climate change action and the provincial government for housing affordability solutions. It’s evident that Canadians perceive these issues as multifaceted and requiring action from all levels of government and industry.
Canadians are showing a rising level of worry regarding the affordability of housing and the issue of climate change. In this period when housing and climate concerns are at the forefront of Canadian consciousness, it is imperative for governments at all levels to pursue strategies that facilitate the creation of new, cost-effective, and environmentally friendly housing options. This will enable us to meet the increasing demand for housing without compromising our climate objectives.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,959 Canadian adults from August 29 to September 4, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.56%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
About Abacus Data
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Conservatives lead by 15 as federal government disapproval jumps 4 points
From September 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,125 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversample Nova Scotia to 500 respondents.
As the Liberal caucus meetings wrap up in London, Ontario, and after the Conservative Party convention in Quebec, a new poll finds the Conservatives continue to hold a large lead nationally.
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 36% in Quebec.
Since our previous survey last week, the Conservatives are up 1, the Liberals steady, and the NDP down 1. The BQ is up slightly in Quebec.
Regionally, the Conservatives continue to hold a big lead in Western Canada, including BC. They lead by 6 in Ontario and by 11 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ has an 8-point lead over the Liberals.
The Conservatives continue to lead across all age groups and among men and women. Interestingly, while the Conservatives lead by wide margins among those with a high school or college education, the Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied with those with a university degree.
But the steady vote intention figures mask deteriorating underlying opinions.
For example, those dissapproving of the federal government’s performance is up 4 points (to 57%) since last week reaching the highest it’s been since 2015. Only 29% approve of the job performance of the Liberal government.
The Prime Minister’s personal image has also worsened. Today 56% have a negative impression of the Justin Trudeau compared wih 27% with a positive view for a net favourable score of -29.
Since the end of June, the Prime Minister’s personal numbers have trended down across all key demographic groups most notably among millennials (most of those aged 30 to 44).
In contrast, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers with positive and negative impressions, although there doesn’t appear to be either a bounce or drop in impressions of Poilievre coming out of the Conservative convention.
Perhaps most worrisome for the Liberals is what appears to be some deterioriation in the party’s accessible voter pool (those who say they are open to voting Liberal). It has reached the lowest point since 2015 at 42%, a drop of 2 points since August. In contrast, 50% of Canadian adults say they are open to voting Conservative – the largest gap in accessible voter pool advantage for the Conservatives 2015.
Finally, we continue to see affordability issues dominating the public agenda. In fact, those ranking housing affordability as a top issue is up 4 points since last week moving now solidly into second place between the cost of living more broadly.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “These numbers continue to show deterioriation in underlying opinions about the government and the Prime Minister that we first started seeing last summer but only recently seem to have impacted people’s intended voting behaviour.
The government needs to find a way to reset its agenda that allows people into evaluating the government differently, and offers a plan and vision that gives people hope that they have a handle on the key issues facing the country. In the absence of that, people’s deep anxiety about the state of the country and their personal lives will overshadow any incremental policies or actions it roles out.
For the Conservatives, these numbers reinforce the strong position the party is in at the moment. More people have a positive view of Pierre Poilievre than either of the two major leaders. They are seen as best able to handle most of the top issues people are focused on and if the desire for change persists and they are seen as capable and acceptable alternatives, they will easily ride the wave into office whenever the next election comes.
Yes, the election could be years away. But the trend is what matters and the Liberal situation is worsening at this point from week to week.”
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Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,125 Canadian adults from September 9 to 13, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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Spooked by polls, Liberal MPs hope Trudeau hears their concerns as caucus gathers – CBC
Some Liberal members of Parliament heading into a national caucus retreat this week say they’re facing blowback from voters at the doorsteps — and they hope the prime minister and his inner circle listen to their concerns before it’s too late.
The Liberals are holding three days of meetings starting Tuesday in London, Ont., a key battleground region of southwestern Ontario, as their party faces its worst polling numbers since forming government in 2015.