Abacus Data Poll: Conservative lead down to 4 as Liberals reach highest vote share since August 2021

From March 10 to 12, 2025, Abacus Data surveyed 1,700 Canadian adults online asking our core federal political tracking questions plus some new questions on Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre. All of the interviews were conducted following Mark Carney’s win in the Liberal leadership election on Sunday.

We find that the horse race continues to tighten as the shift in perceptions and priorities continues.

Here is what we see:

Vote Intention: Conservative 38, Liberal 34, NDP 15

If an election was held at the time of this survey, the Conservatives would get 38% of the vote, followed by the Liberals at 34%, the NDP at 15% and the BQ at 7% nationally (30% in Quebec).

Compared to our previous survey, the Liberals are up 5, the Conservatives down 5 while the NDP is up a marginal 1-point. In two months, the Liberal vote share is up 14-points (from 20% to 34%) while the Conservative vote share is down 8 (from 46% to 38%).

Regionally, the Conservatives are ahead in B.C. and the Prairies. The Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied in Ontario and Atlantic Canada while the Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the BQ in Quebec (37% to 30%).

When we aggregate B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, we find the Conservatives leading the Liberals by four points (40% to 36%). Since mid-January, the Conservative vote share in these three provinces is down 11 points while the Liberal vote share is up 14.

Demographically, we see the Liberals gaining across all age groups and among men and women. The Liberals trail the Conservatives by 5 among those under 30, are 11-points behind among those aged 30 to 44 while both parties are statistically tied among those over 45.

The Conservatives have an eight-point lead among men while both parties are statistically tied among women.

One of the main reasons the Liberal vote share has grown is by reassembling its 2021 voter coalition. Today, 72% of 2021 Liberal voters say they will vote Liberal again, up 12 points in a month and up 6 since our last survey. In contrast, 82% of past Conservative voters say they will vote Conservative again, down 3 since last wave, and down 6 since a month ago. For the NDP, 61% of its past voters are loyal with 16% now saying they will vote Liberal and 9% voting Conservative.

Leader Impressions

Today, 37% of Canadians have a positive impression of Liberal Leader Mark Carney while 30% have a negative view for a net score of +7.

Pierre Poilievre’s net impressions are down overall. 36% have a positive view of the Conservative Leader, down 5 while 43% have a negative view – the highest we have ever measured. Mr. Poilievre’s net score is -7.

Views towards NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh are largely unchanged – 29% positive versus 41% negative for a net score of -12.

The Trump Effect

Donald Trump continues to insert himself into domestic politics in Canada and is having an oversized impact on public opinion.

Views of the U.S. President continue to deterioriate. Today, only 13% of Canadians have a positive view of Trump, down 8 points over the past two months. In contrast, 75% have a negative impression, the highest we have ever measured. Of note, 65% say they have a very negative impression of the U.S. President.

While 88% of Liberal supporters and 87% of NDP supporters have a negative impression of Donald Trump, Conservatives are more divided. 1 in 4 Conservative supporters (23%) have a positive impression of Trump while 59% have a negative view.

Trump has also increasingly become the focus for Canadians. When asked to select their top three issues facing the country, 50% now put Trump and his administration in their top 3 issues, up 11 points in two weeks. The gap between the cost of living (61%) and Trump (50%) is now just 11 points. The economy, healthcare, and housing round out the top 5.

When we ask people who selected an issue which party they feel is best able to handle that issue, the Conservatives still have a big advantage on the cost of living, housing, the economy, immigration, and crime. But the Liberal advantage on Trump has grown to 14-points among those who rate it as a top issue.

If only those who rate the cost of living as a top issue voted, the Conservatives would get 38% of the vote followed by the Liberals at 37% and the NDP at 14%.

If only those who rate Trump as a top issue voted, the Liberals would win by almost 20-points, 47% to 28% with the NDP well back in third at 13%. This underscores just how helpful Trump has been to the Liberals.

Numerically, the Liberals now have a larger voter pool than the Conservatives

Perhaps more important for the Liberals and troubling for the Conservatives is the shift in accessible voter pools. Today, 50% of Canadians say they are open to voting Liberal while 49% are open to voting Conservative. This is the first time since November 2021 that the Liberal accessible voter pool is numerically larger than the Conservative one in our tracking.

That being said, the Conservatives still have a large pool of persuadable voters suggesting an election campaign may be very important in shaping people’s views of their choices. 16% of Canadians are open right now to voting for either the Liberals or Conservatives. They will likely decide the next election.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

Perceptions About Who Will Win the Next Election

The perception gap between the Conservatives and Liberals continues to close on who Canadians think will win the next election. 41% think the Conservatives will win (down 11 in a month) while 32% think the Liberals will win (up 12 in a month). Only 6% think the NDP are positioned to win.

Carney vs. Poilievre: Who is best at…

In this survey, we replicated a set of questions we previously asked in April 2024. Somewhat unconventionally, we asked people between Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, who they thought would be better at some real-life scenarios.

Back in April, when we asked about Trudeau and Poilievre, Trudeau led only on who people thought would best host a party. On every other item, Poilievre was either well ahead or tied basically with the Prime Minister.

Today, the environment is different. With Mark Carney as leader (even if he isn’t as well known as Justin Trudeau), he leads or is competitive with Poilievre on many of the things we tested. Carney leads by 9 on “finding common ground to solve a dispute”, by 4 on “standing up to a bully” and by six on “sitting beside on a long flight”. Poilievre’s only advantage is on “putting up a shelf” but the plurarity of Canadians aren’t sure who would be better at that.

On some scenarios we think are more critical to this moment, the two are essentially tied. On “captaining a ship through a rough storm” Carney is ahead by a marginal two points. On “putting out a kitchen fire” Carney is ahead by 2. And on “helping you manage your household expenses”, Carney bests Poilievre by 3.

When we look at the critical group of those open to voting Liberal and Conservative – 16% of the electorate, the results are more instructive.

Carney leads by a wide margin on financial management (+17) and by a smaller margin on resolving a dispute (+6) and sitting beside on a long flight (+5).

Poilievre leads by 10 on putting up a shelf, by 7 on putting out a kitchen fire, and by 10 on standing up to a bully.

Again, on the important scenario of “captaining a ship through a rough storm”, Carney is ahead by a single point with 1 in 3 of these voters unsure who would be best.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Donald Trump’s enduring influence on Canadian politics looms even larger in this latest survey, amplifying a landscape that is growing increasingly competitive. While the Conservatives still hold a narrow lead at 38% to the Liberals’ 34%, the winds have shifted decisively in the Liberals’ favour. Voters seem receptive to Mark Carney’s leadership, and the party is quickly rebuilding its 2021 coalition—a trend underscored by sizable gains across age groups, among women, and in key regions like Ontario, British Columbia, and Atlantic Canada.

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives remain formidable, but Trump’s shadow presents a real challenge. Nearly one in four Conservative supporters views the U.S. President positively—a stark contrast to the more uniformly negative sentiment among Liberals and New Democrats. As Trump draws more attention, particularly among Canadians who list him as a top issue, the Liberals have found their own advantage growing: a 14-point edge over the Conservatives on handling the “Trump factor” highlights how effectively Carney can position his party as a bulwark against the threat that Trump poses.

Meanwhile, perceptions of both leaders are evolving. Carney’s net favourability remains in positive territory (+7) at a moment (although his negatives are rising faster than his positives) when Poilievre’s is trending downward (-7). This points to a polarized electorate where negative partisanship could become a factor. Among those open to both parties, Carney’s edge on kitchen-table issues—like managing finances and resolving disputes—could tilt swing voters in his favour if these concerns continue to dominate the campaign narrative.

But there’s still a clear split on who Canadians think is best able to “captain a ship through a rough storm” a metaphor to the situation Canada finds itself in today.

All of this points to a newly fluid and highly competitive environment. The Liberals, buoyed by Carney’s arrival and a growing anti-Trump sentiment, are solidifying support faster than many might have anticipated even a few months ago. The Conservatives, for their part, still boast a large pool of persuadable voters, but their brand risks being defined by the polarizing figure of Trump. The election, whenever it comes, may ultimately hinge on whether the national conversation remains focused on cost-of-living pressures—a Conservative strong suit—or tilts more a debate over Trump and his impact on Canada, where the Liberals hold a clear advantage. Either way, the result is an unpredictable and tightening race reminiscent of the 2019 and 2021 elections.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,700 Canadian adults from March 10 to 12, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Why did Ontario voters vote the way they did? A debrief on the 2025 Ontario provincial election

Ontario’s latest provincial election proved to be another decisive win for Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives, securing about 43% of the vote and clinching a third straight majority with 80 seats at Queen’s Park. Despite the PCs’ commanding performance, the Ontario New Democrats maintained their grip on Official Opposition status, underscoring a surprising resilience among progressive voters. Meanwhile, the Ontario Liberals managed to bounce back in terms of overall support but saw those gains translate into fewer seats than they had hoped. It’s an outcome that leaves observers wondering how affordability, leadership perceptions, and local candidate appeal combined to deliver such a strong mandate for Ford while reshaping the province’s political landscape along the way.

In order to capture the most authentic motivations behind voters’ preferences, we employed an open-ended survey technique. Rather than relying on predetermined response options, this method allowed participants to articulate their reasons for supporting a particular party in their own words. By eliminating multiple-choice constraints, the feedback we received was richer, more nuanced, and better reflected the genuine sentiments of the electorate.

Eligible voters in Ontario in our final survey (days before the election) were simply asked: “In a few words, why did you vote for or why are you planning to vote [PARTY NAME]?” We then coded recurring themes—such as leadership, policy issues, and local candidate appeal—while retaining direct quotations to capture the colour and depth of respondents’ opinions.

This approach granted us insight into not only the topics driving voter decision-making, but also the emotional resonance and personal stories behind these choices. In the summaries that follow, we highlight key patterns and illustrative quotes for each major party, providing a window into the motivations behind Ontarians’ political allegiances.

Ontario PC Voters

Many PC supporters emphasized Doug Ford’s perceived strength on economic and fiscal matters. A considerable number pointed to his ability to “stand up to Trump” or handle U.S.-imposed tariffs—several explicitly mention that he is “the only one” who can fight for Ontario’s interests in cross-border disputes. Some cited a broader sense of stability: “He’s already done more for Ontarians than previous leaders,” or, more pragmatically, “Go with the devil you know.”

A significant theme was wariness toward other parties: respondents frequently reference distrust of Liberals, perceived fiscal irresponsibility from the NDP, or disillusionment with previous governments. One voter wrote, “I will never vote Liberal; they ruined our country,” while others declare that there is “no alternative” but the PCs. For these individuals, Ford represents a safer bet, even if they do not wholly endorse every aspect of his record.

Personal approval of Ford himself surfaces often, with descriptors like “approachable,” “real,” “people person,” and “down to earth.” Some point to specific policies—support for infrastructure, job creation, or roads—as evidence of good governance. Another recurring theme is confidence in Ford’s ability to manage cost-of-living challenges. “He’s trying to reduce the cost of living,” one voter says, capturing a sentiment echoed by others.

A minority of responses acknowledge Ford’s imperfections—several mention mistakes or policy missteps—but still deem him preferable to other leaders. One wrote, “He pulled a few fast ones, but he has Ontario’s best interest at heart.” Another admitted voting for him despite wanting to vote NDP, purely to avoid a Liberal win. Overall, this data reveals that most PC-leaning voters believe Doug Ford offers the best balance of strong leadership, economic pragmatism, and resilience in the face of external pressures—particularly from south of the border.

Ontario NDP Voters

A dominant theme among NDP supporters was the desire for a change in government, with many respondents indicating frustration or disappointment with both the PCs and the Liberals. Multiple voters explicitly mention that neither party “did it” for them, so they’re turning to the NDP for a fresh approach. A significant number point to the NDP’s policies on affordability and social programs—especially promises to “help the poor,” “cut grocery prices,” and build “more affordable housing.” Healthcare also features prominently; some highlight pledges to “hire more doctors” or “fix the schools,” expressing hope that the NDP will prioritize these concerns.

Marit Stiles herself garners praise for appearing “competent,” “trustworthy,” and “sincere.” Many respondents say she aligns with their personal values, referencing social justice, middle-class needs, and a focus on helping “the under dog.” Others appreciate her perceived integrity and “tough on the issues” stance, contrasting her approach with what they see as the failings of Doug Ford and other leaders. A few claim to be life-long NDP supporters, while others view Stiles’ leadership as the best way to unseat the current government.

Local candidates also matter. Several voters credit their decision to strong NDP representatives who “deserve to be re-elected.” Some even admit they’re voting strategically, believing the NDP is the “best chance to beat PC in my riding.” Overall, these responses convey an expectation that the Ontario NDP will prioritize everyday people, focus on key social and economic challenges, and provide a credible alternative to the status quo.

Ontario Liberal Voters

A central theme among Ontario Liberal Party supporters was also the desire to remove Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives from office. Many explicitly state that their vote for the Liberals is a strategic move to defeat Ford, with comments like “Best chance to defeat the PC candidate in my riding,” or “I’m voting Liberal so Ford can’t get a majority.” Several respondents also mention fatigue with Ford’s perceived mismanagement, pointing to healthcare cutbacks, wasted spending, or disagreements with his infrastructure plans. For them, Crombie represents a needed change and a credible challenger.

Bonnie Crombie herself is repeatedly described as “approachable,” “honest,” and someone who “cares about people,” with supporters lauding her stance on healthcare, education, and cost-of-living issues. Those referencing her record as Mississauga’s mayor praise her leadership experience and “ability to run the province.” Healthcare emerges as a major priority: many cite Crombie’s promise to invest in public hospitals, hire more doctors, or otherwise strengthen the system. Others point to her support for ODSP, emphasis on helping “hardworking people,” and readiness to stand up to both Doug Ford and external pressures (like Trump or tariffs). Some are life-long Liberals who simply want to see their party back in power, while others say they’re switching from the NDP or have always been non-partisan, but trust the Liberals’ platform more than any other.

Overall, these responses underscore a blend of policy alignment—especially on healthcare and social programs—and strategic calculation: many see the Liberals as the most viable option to unseat Ford while pursuing a more progressive, people-centered agenda.

The Upshot

rom the voters’ own words, it’s clear that Doug Ford’s 2025 win can be traced to a mix of perceived reliability, familiarity, and a belief that he alone could stand up to both American pressures—like President Trump’s tariffs—and local affordability challenges. Many PC supporters repeated variations of “he can handle the U.S. better than the rest,” indicating that Trump loomed large in the election conversation. Others saw Ford as more grounded in the day-to-day struggles of Ontarians, referencing the rising cost of living and the need for a leader who could tackle it head-on. Even some who admitted misgivings about Ford stuck with him, describing him as “the devil you know,” a safer choice than untested or less-trusted alternatives.

Meanwhile, the Ontario NDP and Liberals both promised significant changes, focusing on social justice, healthcare, and affordability. Marit Stiles captured imaginations with her emphasis on helping “the under dog,” and many praised her party’s grassroots engagement and local candidate strength. Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals highlighted a plan for healthcare investment and cost-of-living relief, and she personally inspired confidence as an experienced mayor. Despite that, key respondents repeatedly stated they were picking the Liberals or NDP “to stop Ford,” rather than out of wholehearted support—an admission that strategic voting sometimes overshadowed detailed policy preferences.

Ultimately, while Ford’s opponents offered robust platforms for change, they struggled to generate the same sense of stability that many Ontarians craved. Voters worried about U.S. tariffs, felt heightened economic anxiety, and looked for someone who could handle the biggest issues—especially affordability—without rocking the boat too much. In the end, those concerns gave Ford the edge. The NDP and Liberals, though appreciated for progressive values and fresh leadership, simply couldn’t overcome the widespread perception that Ford was best equipped to take on Trump and keep Ontario’s economy afloat.

You can find out more about what happened in the Ontario election by reading this in-depth interview I did with Martin Regg Cohn of the Toronto Star:

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 24 to 25, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsInsightsPolitics

What Canadians think about Canada joining the European Union

*Disclaimer: The polling was conducted before the US tariffs took place on March 4, 2025 which were then removed for another month. *

Starting in 2025, the new US administration confronted the Canadian public with all sorts of threats. We detected in recent polls that the looming tariff issues are top-of-mind for many Canadians.

Over the last couple of weeks, different media outlets (e.g., The Economist, Toronto Star, National Post or CBC) floated the idea of a possible Canadian membership to the European Union (EU). Those articles discussed different strategic advantages and benefits of both sides, as well as the hurdles and legal obstacles. At Abacus Data, we wanted to get insights from the Canadian public.  

Our latest survey of 1,500 Canadian adults (February 20 – 25, 2025) explores public opinion on Canada’s relationship with its foreign partners and the idea of a Canadian EU membership.

To start, we wanted to know Canadians’ general impressions of relevant countries. The United Kingdom is viewed the most favourably with a combined positive impression of 72%, followed by the European Union with 68%. Only 34% of Canadians have a very or mostly positive impression of the United States, which is behind Mexico with 56% and just above China with 28%. The combined negative impression of the United States is 60%, which is even higher than China’s 58%. 17% said they don’t know enough to have an impression of the European Union, which is higher than any other tested countries.

We asked Canadians to rank the same list of countries by who they think is currently Canada’s most important international partner. With combined first and second spots, the United States is leading with 55% as the most important ranked partner. This is followed by the European Union (43%) and the United Kingdom (40%). What is noteworthy here is that the United States is ranked as the most important (1st) by 46%, which is considerably more than any other tested country. The next are 20% for the European Union and 14% for the United Kingdom. At the same time, the United States is also ranked as the least important partner (5th) by 27%, which is only topped by China with 28%. This is compared to the EU, which is ranked last by only 11%. This polarized opinion on the partnership between Canada and the United States is unmatched by any of the other tested countries.

Next, we asked the same question but looking forward to the next 3-5 years. The United States dropped from first to third place with a combined 1st & 2nd ranking spot of 38%. The Canadian public sees the European Union as the most important partner in the next 3-5 years, with a combined top 2 ranking of 52%, while the United Kingdom comes in second with 44%. Compared to the current partnership, there is a 16-point decrease (from 46% to 30%) of Canadians who ranked the United States as the most important (1st); this is still the highest score of all tested counties. The European Union gained 8 points (from 20% to 28%) as the most important partner looking forward, and the United States (35%) is taking over China (28%) as the least important ranked partner. The polarized opinion on the partnership with the United States continues when looking into the future and shifts from a most important to a least important net score.  

Focusing on the European Union, we asked Canadians which countries within the European Union are considered the most important partners.  Across Canada, 44% select France, and 29% choose Germany as Canada’s most important partner within the European Union – countries with the biggest economies and highest populations. What is noteworthy here is the relationship between Quebec and France; 71% of Canadians from Quebec selected France as the most important partner within the European Union.

After reminding Canadians of the recent tariff threats and the musing of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state, we asked if the Canadian government should look into joining the European Union. 44% of Canadians think that the Canadian government definitely or probably should look into joining the European Union, while 34% are opposed to it. About 1 in 4 Canadians are unsure about the suggestion.

The picture changes slightly when asked if there is general support for Canada becoming a member state of the European Union. A combined 46% expressed strong or somewhat support for a Canadian EU membership while 29% are strongly or somewhat opposed. A quarter of Canadians indicate that they are unsure about Canadian membership in the European Union. Compared to the total, young Canadians (18 to 29) show the strongest support for the Canadian EU membership, while older Canadians (60 and above) are more often unsure about it. When breaking down the question to the past federal vote, Liberal Party voters show higher support, while Conservative Party voters more often oppose the idea.

Finally, we asked Canadians to imagine a scenario where Canada joined the European Union and if they think a list of key issues would get better, worse or not change much.

62% think that trade between Canada and the European Union would get much or somewhat better. A combined 48% think that the economic situation in Canada would get much or somewhat better. That the overall quality of life would get better was indicated by 41%. Regarding the number of people moving to Canada from the European Union, 40% think it would get better, while 24% said that they don’t know. Canadians are more split on the issue of the cost of living in Canada. 33% think it would get better, and 32% think it would get worse. On housing affordability in Canada, more Canadians think it would get worse (33%) than better (28%). The highest no change score was for the issue of healthcare in Canada (23%), while 34% think that healthcare would get better.

On the relationship between Canada and the United Kingdom, 47% think it would get better, while 17% think it would get worse. In comparison, only 20% think that the relationship with the United States would get better, and 50% think that it would get worse.

THE UPSHOT

For decades, the United States has been regarded as Canada’s primary partner, and for many Canadians that sense of closeness and shared interest has rarely been questioned. However, these new data suggest a meaningful shift in how Canadians perceive that relationship. Rising trade tensions, tariffs, and the broader strain of U.S. rhetoric have created polarization in public opinion. While many Canadians still believe the United States is an important partner, just as many now see it as a potential liability in both economic and diplomatic terms. That dissonance—where the U.S. simultaneously ranks highest on “most important” and “least important” partner—underscores how unsettled Canadians are about relying too heavily on a volatile American market.

Against this backdrop, openness to a Canadian partnership or even membership in the European Union takes on fresh significance. Fully 44% of Canadians think the government should look into joining the EU, and nearly half support the idea in principle—a remarkable number for a topic that was, until recently, more of a curiosity than a serious policy proposal. Younger Canadians, in particular, are notably more supportive. The shared values Canadians see reflected in Europe, along with the appeal of diversified trade and broader market access, are fuelling interest. For many, strengthening ties with European partners or even pushing for a more formal arrangement may be a strategic counterweight to the economic risks associated with an unpredictable United States.

Naturally, there would be countless legal, political, and cultural hurdles if Canada were ever to pursue formal EU membership. But at a minimum, the public opinion foundation is there for deeper integration—whether that means expanded trade deals under CETA, entry into the European Economic Area, or other creative alliances that loosen Canada’s reliance on a sometimes-hostile U.S. administration. With roughly one in four Canadians still unsure, there is room for more public debate and education on how an EU partnership might work and what it could achieve for Canada.

Overall, Canadians appear more open than ever to new international alliances, partly driven by the cooling of attitudes toward the United States. Where this leads in concrete policy terms remains to be seen, but the conversation itself has gained traction. If the U.S. relationship continues along a contentious path, the notion of “Canada in the EU”—once seen as fanciful—may evolve into a mainstream policy option.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census. data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsInsightsPolitics

62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year Amid Political Tensions

Over the past few weeks, tensions between Canada and the United States have intensified, spurred by President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs and the constant threat of annexation. This heated political landscape has ignited a surge in Canadian patriotism, which is now expressing itself in a very tangible way: through consumer behaviour. In other words, shopping choices, travel plans, and overall spending patterns are no longer driven simply by cost or convenience—political considerations are increasingly at play.

This article delves into new data highlighting how the rising wave of national pride is reshaping Canadian travel intentions in 2025, with many opting to stay within Canadian borders rather than heading south.

As March break, family getaways, and summer plans draw near, this sea change in behaviour presents a pivotal moment for Canada’s domestic travel market. Tourism boards, local businesses, and destinations across the country have a timely opportunity to harness this sentiment, encouraging Canadians to spend their vacation dollars at home and reinforcing a spirit of unity in an era of heightened political and economic tensions.

U.S. Travel Intentions in 2025

One-third (33%) of Canadians had plans to visit the United States in 2025.

Younger Canadians were more likely to have U.S. travel intentions, with 42% of those aged 18-29 and 41% of those aged 30-44 either having booked or planning to book a trip. Families with children were also more inclined to travel to the U.S., with 51% of those with children under 12 and 46% with children aged 12-17 planning a trip.

However, as the tensions between the U.S. and Canada have escalated, 56% of those who initially planned to visit the U.S. have either canceled or changed their travel plans. Of these, 39% have shifted to other countries (20%) or different locations in Canada (19%), while 17% have postponed or canceled their U.S. trips. Younger Canadians (63% of those 18-29 and 62% of those 30-44) and those with children (64% with kids under 12 and 72% with kids 12-17) are more likely to have altered their plans. In contrast, older Canadians are more likely to continue with their U.S. travel plans, with 32% of those 60+ planning to proceed despite the political climate.

Political Climate’s Influence on U.S. Travel

The current political and economic climate between Canada and the U.S. has made traveling to the U.S. less appealing for many Canadians. 66% of Canadians indicated that the situation has made the U.S. a less attractive travel destination. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among older Canadians, with 78% of those aged 60+ noting that U.S. travel has become less appealing. This aligns with our research, which shows that older Canadians express heightened concerns regarding the state of Canada-U.S. relations.

The perception of former U.S. President Donald Trump has a major impact on these views. Among those with a negative opinion of Trump, 86% said the current political climate has made the U.S. less appealing, with 59% actively avoiding travel to the U.S..

Reasons for Reduced Appeal to the U.S.

Those who find the U.S. less appealing as a travel destination cite a variety of reasons:

  • 48% cite concerns about the political climate or leadership, particularly under Trump
  • 46% mention disagreement with U.S. policies
  • 43% express a preference for supporting Canadian businesses and destinations
  • 43% are also concerned about the weak Canadian dollar

The combination of political concerns, disagreements with U.S. policies, and economic factors like the weak Canadian dollar is driving many Canadians to view the U.S. as a less appealing travel destination.

Older Canadians are more concerned about these factors, with 60% of those aged 60+ worried about the U.S. political climate (compared to 34% of those aged 18-29) and 53% concerned about the weak Canadian dollar (vs. 30% of younger Canadians). Those with a negative view of Trump are especially likely to cite concerns about the U.S. political climate (54%) and policies (51%).

Impact of Tariffs on Travel Intentions

Tariffs are another factor affecting Canadians’ travel plans. While tariffs had not been implemented at the time of the survey, 28% of Canadians said they would still have concerns about traveling to the U.S. even without them. On the other hand, 24% of respondents said the removal of tariffs might make them more likely to visit, but that the political will still influence their decision. Only 18% of Canadians noted that, if tariffs were not implemented, they would be more likely to visit the U.S..

Now that tariffs have been implemented, they are likely to further discourage travel to the U.S., with many Canadians already expressing hesitation even before their enforcement.

Avoiding U.S. Travel: Short and Long-Term Plans

A significant proportion of Canadians plan to avoid traveling to the U.S.. 71% of respondents indicated that they intend to avoid the U.S. for at least the next six months. Additionally, 23% of Canadians plan to refrain from U.S. travel for more than a year, with 28% of those aged 60+ and 27% of those who view Trump negatively among the most likely to take this approach. A further 32% said they would consider returning to the U.S. once the current situation improves, though no specific timeline was provided. This sentiment was particularly strong among those aged 60+ (39%) and those with a negative impression of Trump (36%).

The significant number of Canadians planning to avoid U.S. travel highlights the growing impact of political tensions on travel decisions, with many indicating they will only return once the situation improves, reflecting a deeper shift in attitudes toward cross-border relations.

2025 Travel Intentions: A Shift Toward Domestic Travel

Looking ahead to 2025, only 9% of Canadians intend to visit the United States, suggesting a significant decline in U.S.-bound travel. In contrast, domestic travel is more appealing, with 44% planning to travel to provinces outside their home province, 38% intending to travel within their home province, and 10% considering a staycation. European travel is also a popular option, with 22% of Canadians planning to visit Europe – particularly those aged 18-29 (31%). Notably, 20% of Canadians do not plan to travel at all in 2025.

This shift in travel preferences highlights a broader trend of Canadians opting for local destinations, further distancing themselves from U.S. travel due to ongoing political and economic concerns.

THE UPSHOT

In the past, calls to “buy Canadian” and support local might have felt more like patriotic slogans than genuine catalysts for change. But this time, something is different. The tension with the U.S. – symbolized most starkly by the tariffs – has sparked genuine anger and a sense of betrayal among many Canadians. These emotions run deeper than mere inconvenience or raised eyebrows at the news; for a significant segment of the population, there’s now an unmistakable feeling of “enough is enough.”

This emotional undercurrent is shifting travel and buying patterns in ways we haven’t seen before. It’s not just feel-good rhetoric: Canadians are breaking old habits and forming new ones, motivated by something far more powerful than a good deal or a chance to earn loyalty points. Many Canadians now see their spending as a statement, whether that means choosing a cottage weekend in Ontario over a shopping trip across the border or picking local vendors instead of U.S.-based retailers.

It’s rare to witness such a profound shift in consumer sentiment. Yet in this moment, Canadians are re-examining their everyday choices – from where to vacation to which brands they trust – and these decisions are fueled by deeply felt emotions. For Canadian tourism operators and DMOs, this is both a challenge and a remarkable opportunity: to meet consumers’ growing desire for authentic, homegrown experiences, and to solidify a new habit of supporting local that could endure long after the current tensions fade.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.53%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census. data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

From Scarcity to Precarity: The Changing Mindset of Canadians

For the past few years, Canadians have navigated a scarcity mindset, shaped by housing shortages, rising costs, strained healthcare, and job insecurity. This competition for essential resources fueled frustration, shifting views on immigration, climate change, and housing, driving many voters away from the Trudeau-led Liberals in search of relief.

Now, we see a new mindset emerging – one defined by uncertainty. The tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration yesterday only adds to that uncertainty.

Canadians are no longer just worried about affording or getting access to what they need today; they are increasingly unsure what the next few months (or years) will bring. Political instability, economic volatility, and external threats like Trump’s proposed tariffs and his musings about annexation have deepened financial, professional, and personal insecurity. Affordability, job security, and Canada’s global standing now feel unpredictable, making long-term planning seem risky, if not impossible for some.

This shift from scarcity to precarity is not just about limited resources but about whether key systems will remain reliable. Will housing become more affordable? Will healthcare be accessible when needed as Canada’s aging population puts further strain on an already precarious system? Will economic pressures make it harder to build a future, build wealth, and achieve dreams? These uncertainties are shaping career, family, and financial decisions as Canadians struggle to navigate what comes next.

Understanding what a precarity mindset looks like – how it is influencing public perception, decision-making, and long-term confidence – offers valuable insight into how Canadians are coping with an increasingly uncertain future.

Rising Costs and Delayed Life Plans

As financial pressures continue to mount, Canadians are growing increasingly uncertain about their ability to maintain stability in the months ahead. 68% are worried about affording basic needs over the next six months, with concerns particularly high among younger Canadians (81% of 18-29-year-olds), young families (78% with children under 12, 80% with children 12-17), and lower-income households (82% of those earning less than $35,000).

Nearly half (45%) of Canadians say they would struggle to cover their expenses for three months if their financial situation changed unexpectedly, a concern that is even greater for families with children 12-17 (52%) and those aged 30-44 (51%) and 45-59 (49%).

This financial strain is forcing many to put major life decisions on hold. 70% of Canadians say they are delaying key milestones such as buying a home, starting a family, or retiring, with 18-29-year-olds (77%) and parents with young children (76%) the most likely to be postponing their plans. But this hesitation is about more than affordability today – it reflects growing uncertainty about whether these milestones will ever feel within reach. As economic conditions remain unstable and long-term financial security feels increasingly out of reach, planning for the future has become far more difficult, particularly for young Canadians and families trying to build stability in an unpredictable environment.

Social Divisions and Competition for Resources

Beyond individual financial concerns, many Canadians acknowledge the presence of growing divisions in society as access to key resources becomes more strained. Just under half (46%) believe that competition for housing, healthcare, and jobs is creating tensions in their communities, particularly among younger Canadians, who feel this strain most acutely (49% of 18-29-year-olds, and 52% of 30-44-year-olds).

Precarity is reinforcing zero-sum thinking that we have seen grow over the past few years.

Similarly, 53% of Canadians believe the country’s core systems – housing, healthcare, and social support – are not fair or equitable for all Canadians. This concern is strongest among middle-aged Canadians (60% of those aged 45-59) and lower-income households (59-60% of households earning less than $50,000), who often feel they are being left behind. The question is no longer just about who has access to these resources today, it is about whether we will have reliable access to these systems (healthcare, housing, social services) in the future.

Environmental Concerns and Future Uncertainty

While our recent polling has revealed a decline in Canadians’ immediate concerns about climate change, it remains a source of uncertainty about the future. 69% of Canadians worry about its impact over the next five years, with younger Canadians (79%) and those with children under 12 (76%) expressing the greatest concern. While some believe Canada is taking adequate action, 36% feel not enough is being done to prepare for long-term risks relate to climate change.

Many are left wondering how climate-related disruptions – such as extreme weather, rising insurance costs, and potential food shortages – could affect their financial and personal security. The uncertainty is not just about the severity of these risks but about how well Canada is prepared to navigate them in the coming years.

Stress, Anxiety, and a Growing Sense of Uncertainty

Canadians are increasingly feeling the psychological impact of uncertainty, with 43% saying external factors – such as the economy, global politics, and government decisions – significantly shape their daily lives, making it harder to feel secure about the future.

Top stressors include:

  • 80% worry about the country’s direction
  • 79% feel anxious about Canada-U.S. relations
  • 72% stress over housing affordability
  • 71% are concerned about healthcare access

Younger Canadians are feeling the most pressure, with concerns centered on housing affordability, job instability, and financial security, making it difficult to plan for the future. Families with young children share similar anxieties, as they navigate rising costs and uncertainty about their children’s financial prospects. For those in their 30s and 40s, the challenge lies in balancing homeownership costs and long-term financial stability, while older Canadians are more focused on Canada’s relationship with the U.S. and its broader economic implications.

Looking ahead, 37% of Canadians cite affording food, housing, and utilities as their biggest concern, particularly lower-income (46%) and middle-aged Canadians (44%). Healthcare access (29%) is a growing issue, especially for those 60+ (47%), while 21% worry about housing costs and 23% of younger Canadians fear job instability.

For parents, raising children in an increasingly uncertain world weighs heavily, with 26% of those with kids under 12 and 22% with teens citing political, economic, and social instability as a major concern.

THE UPSHOT

Canada’s shift from a scarcity mindset to a precarity mindset reflects a growing uncertainty about the future. Concerns over housing, healthcare, and job security have long been pressing, but they are now magnified by political instability, economic unpredictability, and external pressures like U.S. trade threats. Canadians are no longer just worried about what they have today – they are questioning what they will have access to in the months (and years) ahead.

This uncertainty affects Canadians differently depending on their stage of life. Younger Canadians struggle with housing affordability, job security, and financial independence, making it difficult to plan for the future. Parents worry about raising children amid economic and social instability, which threatens financial security and future opportunities. Middle-aged Canadians face rising costs while juggling career and financial responsibilities, making long-term stability feel out of reach. Older Canadians are most concerned about Canada’s economic position, U.S. relations, and healthcare access, particularly as they approach retirement.

This growing instability has far-reaching implications for businesses, organizations, and political leaders. Consumer behaviour is shifting as financial caution delays major purchases, affecting industries from real estate to retail. Advocacy groups and policymakers will need to offer long-term solutions, addressing affordability, job security, and essential services, rather than relying on short-term fixes.

For political parties, this shift presents both risks and opportunities. Canadians want stability, security, and leadership that reassures them, not rhetoric that fuels division or fear. Policies that offer sustainable solutions – such as housing affordability, economic resilience, and healthcare access – will resonate more than reactionary measures. Trump’s tariff threats and global instability have put economic leadership at the forefront, and Canadians may look to leaders who can protect the country from external shocks while strengthening domestic stability. While fear-based messaging can mobilize voters, over-reliance on crisis narratives risks deepening public anxiety. Parties that recognize this uncertainty and offer a clear, pragmatic vision for stability will be best positioned to gain support.

As precarity continues to shape how Canadians view their future, make decisions, and engage with institutions, understanding this mindset will be critical in navigating the challenges ahead. The focus must shift beyond addressing today’s concerns – it must be about rebuilding stability and trust for the future.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/world at anticipating public behaviour and understanding the reasons behind it. 

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPolitics

What happened in Ontario and what does it mean for federal politics?

Yesterday’s vote in Ontario delivered Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives a historic third-straight majority victory—something not seen in the province since 1959. It was a campaign that, despite a growing desire for change and weeks of speculation about just how potent anger at incumbents would be, ultimately stayed true to the polling narrative that Ford was on track for an impressive win. From where I sit, several factors shaped these results, and they help explain why Ontario followed Nova Scotia’s Tim Houston in bucking the broader anti-incumbent trend we’ve witnessed elsewhere.

Cost of Living, Trump, and the Economy at the Centre

First and foremost, voters’ concerns about day-to-day economic issues—rising prices, job security, and anxiety around the cost of living—continued to dominate throughout the campaign. Our final poll of the election showed that 59 percent of Ontarians listed the cost of living as one of the top three issues they wanted to see debated, with 33 percent saying it was the primary driver of their vote. Ford and the PCs were consistently perceived as strongest on this question, maintaining a double-digit lead over the Liberals among cost-of-living voters. The fact that cost of living remained the central theme of the race is critical: it’s the issue that Ford “owns” in many people’s minds.

Overlaying that pocketbook anxiety was the spectre of U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist stance and, more concretely, the looming threat of tariffs on Ontario industries. Ford used the fear and uncertainty around Trump’s policies to frame himself as the steady hand Ontarians needed. He campaigned heavily on a “Canada is not for sale” message, positioning himself as the only leader with the mettle to navigate chaos south of the border. Whether you see this as cynical or pragmatic, it resonated with working-class voters and those employed in manufacturing or trade-dependent sectors. Ultimately, it solidified the PC advantage in regions such as the GTHA and southwestern Ontario.

Healthcare’s Salience Rose—But Not Enough

One of the more interesting developments was healthcare’s gradual rise in importance as a ballot-box issue. Our polling detected a real uptick: by the end of the campaign, 40 percent of voters put healthcare in their top three issues, making it the second-most salient concern after cost of living. The Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, successfully made inroads among voters who said that healthcare would be their primary determinant. In fact, the Liberals had a 21-point advantage over the PCs among voters who prioritized healthcare above all else.

Yet for Crombie and her team, that upswing in healthcare salience didn’t broaden into a campaign-defining wave. In essence, cost of living and responding to Trump overshadowed the healthcare push. Even if Crombie had some success in persuading voters that the Liberals were better stewards of the healthcare system, it wasn’t sufficient to dislodge a government widely seen as relatively competent on economic matters. And in the end, the NDP were able to hold several key ridings in southwestern Ontario and the north, limiting Liberal hopes of a dramatic seat swing.

A Rare Positive Favourability for All Leaders

An unusual feature of this campaign was that all four party leaders ended with net-positive favourability. Doug Ford hovered around +3, Bonnie Crombie at +2, Marit Stiles of the NDP at +9, and Mike Schreiner of the Greens also finished in positive territory. Ford’s numbers have remained remarkably stable, considering that most incumbents see their negatives grow over time. Meanwhile, the opposition leaders made strides in introducing themselves positively to voters, but that across-the-board favourability prevented any one rival from surging ahead on sheer likability or novelty.

At the same time, that overall “everyone looks decent” dynamic meant individual issues and leadership on the economy weighed more heavily on voting decisions. If you like Marit Stiles personally but don’t think her party is strong on cost of living, it becomes easier for you to vote PC. And if you see the Liberals as competent on healthcare but not on taxes or trade, you may still lean PC.

Why Ford and the PCs Won

If we step back, the PCs’ win boiled down to three key forces:

1. Economic Anxiety: Ford kept the focus on jobs, affordability, and tax threats. He positioned himself as the champion of Ontario’s working class in the face of global headwinds

2. Trump’s Tariffs: This unique angle gave Ford a chance to appear statesmanlike, travelling to Washington mid-campaign and touting his “Canada is Not for Sale” credentials. That overshadowed attacks on his record

3. Stable Approval and Desire for Change Not High Enough: While the desire for a new government did climb to 57 percent in our final poll, it never reached the “danger zone” that fatally undermines an incumbent. Crucially, the support for opposition parties splintered between Liberals, NDP, and Greens, helping Ford retain a comfortable lead.

Challenges Facing the Opposition

Crombie’s Liberals did recapture official party status. They increased their overall vote share to around 30 percent—no small feat for a party that’s been on the ropes since 2018. But Crombie lost her own seat, and the Liberals remain shut out across large swaths of the province. Their core challenge remains that focusing on healthcare alone isn’t enough in an environment dominated by inflation, job growth, and an unpredictable U.S. administration.

The NDP, meanwhile, held onto Official Opposition status. Stiles fended off some key PC challenges, but her party lost seats and is now contending with an emboldened Liberal presence. The NDP still have a strong base in particular regions but are finding it tougher to grow beyond those areas when voters’ primary concerns are pocketbook issues rather than social programs.

Looking Ahead: Federal Implications

Anytime Canada’s most populous province goes to the polls, eyes turn to Ottawa. Ford’s resounding win suggests that Canadians, or at least Ontarians, still reward leaders who project competence on bread-and-butter economic files. For federal parties, the lesson may be that an incumbent (Mark Carney?) perceived as reasonably adept at managing economic anxieties can hold off even a rising desire for change. 

If cost of living continues to dominate headlines, incumbents—provincial or federal—who offer reassurance on inflation and job security will likely remain competitive, even if there’s general restlessness for something different.

Ontario’s 2025 election ultimately ended as it began: with Ford and the PCs touting their capacity to shield (or protect) the province from Trump’s tariffs, respond to affordability concerns, and steer the economy. The Liberals and NDP did raise pressing issues around healthcare and public services, but it wasn’t enough to break the PCs’ hold on the “living costs plus economy” narrative. 

The result, then, is a seldom-seen third majority that reaffirms Ontario’s comfort with Ford’s vision and sends a clear signal about voters’ priorities in uncertain times.

Our Accuracy and Depth Stands Out

Yesterday’s Ontario election was also a testament to the accuracy and reliability of polling in Canada, and I’m proud of how close Abacus Data’s final estimates came to the actual popular vote. Working in partnership with the Toronto Star, our polling suggested the Progressive Conservatives would secure a strong lead, with the Liberals and NDP trailing behind. While horse race numbers grab attention, the deeper questions we ask about motivations and concerns reveal the ‘why’ behind the results. 

That’s where Abacus Data stands out.

Our ability to quickly field surveys, dive deep into voter and consumer sentiments, and then tell a compelling story with the data is what differentiates us in a crowded field. In a fast-paced political and consumer climate, we combine speed and depth with a storytelling approach that turns numbers into meaningful insights. This election was no exception, as we accurately identified the major trends in public opinion, while also offering a nuanced view of what might come next.

I’m also thrilled to recognize the hard work and dedication of our team of 18 professionals, spread from Halifax to Ottawa, Toronto, London, and Edmonton. Their commitment to rigorous methodology, thoughtful analysis, and a collaborative spirit makes it possible for us to deliver timely results that people trust. 

I can’t express how fortunate I feel to work with such talent every day.

Looking ahead, we plan to apply the same methods on an even bigger scale for the upcoming federal election. 

We’ll be launching a special subscription service—available exclusively to our clients—designed to keep them informed with real-time polling data and expert analysis. 

Pollsters across Canada performed exceptionally well this Ontario election, and our industry remains among the best in the world at anticipating public behaviour and understanding the reasons behind it. 

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsPoliticsProvincial Politics

Abacus Data Poll: The Opinion Landscape in Canada Continues to Shift

From February 20 to 25, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a nationally representative survey of 1,500 Canadian adults.

We find that the horse race continues to tighten as perceptions and impressions shift. The opinion landscape is evolving and looks quite different than the one we have seen over the previous 18 months.

Here is what we see:

1 – Optimism about the direction of the country hits a two-year high.

Today, 30% of Canadians think the country is headed in the right direction, an 11-point increase from the low-point in the middle of December. In contrast, 54% think the country is off on the wrong track.

2 – The desire for change is shifting.

Today, just under half of Canadians say they want a change in government and believe there is a good alternative available. At 48%, this measure is down 8 points in two months and the lowest it’s been since August 2023. At the same time, those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected are up to 20%

3 – The cost of living, Trump, healthcare, housing, and the economy are the top issues

We haven’t seen much change in the issue set with the cost of living, Trump, healthcare, housing, and the economy in the top 5 issues.

When we follow up and ask people who rated an issue in their top 3 which party they think is best able to handle it, the Conservatives continue to lead on the cost of living (by 16 over the Liberals), on housing (by 9 over the Liberals), and the economy (by 22). The Liberals have opened up a 10-point lead among those who rate Trump and his administration as a top issue.

4 – For the first time since last summer, less than half of Canadians think the Conservatives will win the next election.

Today, 46% of Canadians think the Conservatives are going to win the next election, down 6 points in two weeks and down 16-points since the middle of January. Those who think the Liberals will win the next election is up 6 points, a high since the beginning of last year.

5 – Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular in Canada

Today, 18% of Canadians have a positive impression of Donald Trump while 68% have a negative view. Liberal (79%), NDP (82%), and BQ (94%) supporters are almost in universal agreement about having a negative view of Trump. Conservative supporters are more divided. 33% of Conservative supporters have a positive view, 20% neutral, and 48% negative.

6 – The Liberal leadership race

We continue to track how Canadians feel about the leading candidates running to be the next Liberal leader. Mark Carney continues to have the most favourable impression. 36% of Canadians have a positive view of Carney (up 3 since the end of January) while 26% have a negative view (up 6) for a net score of +10. In contrast, Chrystia Freeland’s net score is -2.

At the same time, Mark Carney continues to offer the Liberals the best chance at increasing their support. 29% of Canadians say they would definitely or probably vote Liberal if Mark Carney is leader – 5 points more than say the same thing about Chrystia Freeland. The proportion of Canadians who say they will not vote Liberal if Carney is leader is 7-points smaller than those who feel the same about Freeland.

Based on this data, we estimate that Mark Carney could add up to 6 percentage points to the Liberal vote share taking almost equally from the Conservatives, NDP, Greens, and BQ.

The Impact on Political Opinions and Intended Behaviour

Given all of these shifts in broader perceptions and opinions, we also see changes in political opinions and intended behaviour.

1 – The accessible voter pools for the Conservative and Liberal parties are almost equal in size.

For the first time since the summer of 2023, the accessible voter pools available to the Conservative and Liberal parties are about equal. Today, 51% of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative, only 3-points larger than the 48% open to voting Liberal. Since the middle of December, the Liberal Party’s accessible voter pool has increased by 12 points. That’s about 3 million Canadian adults now open to voting Liberal who weren’t only a few months ago.

2 – Negative impressions of Justin Trudeau are down while views of Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh are holding steady.

We continue to see an improvement in views towards Justin Trudeau. Today, 26% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister (up 7 in two months) while those with a negative view are down 8 to 56%. His net impression score is now -30.

At the same time, despite shifts in broader perceptions, views about Pierre Poilievre are holding steady. Today, 41% have a positive view of Pierre Poilievre while 41% have a negative impression for a net score of 0.

We also see little change in views towards Jagmeet Singh. 28% have a positive impression compared with 40% who have a negative view for a net score of -12.

3 – Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops to 12 as Liberal vote share continues to rise

If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 29% would vote Liberal, and 14% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 6% nationally, while the Greens are at 4% and the People’s Party at 3%. Since our last survey two weeks ago, the Conservatives are down 5, the Liberals up 2, and every other party has seen a marginal shift. The NDP vote share at 14% is the lowest we have measured for the party is October 2016. The last time we had the Liberals at 29% was in June 2023.

Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows slightly, although not as much as it has in the past suggesting that Liberal voters continued to be as engaged and enthusiastic about voting as Conservatives. Today, the Conservatives have 42% among the most likely voters compared with 28% for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15%.

Regionally, the Liberals are up 7 in BC, 6 in Quebec, and 8 in Alberta. In Ontario, we haven’t seen much change from our previous survey. The Conservatives continue to lead in BC, the Prairies, Ontario, and are statistically tied with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.

When we combine B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada and look at the trend over time, we find the Liberal share in those provinces rising substantially over the past month.

Today, 31% would vote Liberal in those provinces up from 22% in mid-January compared while 44% in those provinces would vote Conservative. This is the highest Liberal vote share in those provinces since we started tracking these three provinces combined a year ago.

Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups and among men and women, but we continue to see Liberal growth among those aged 60 and over. The Conservatives lead by 15 among men and 9 among women.

When we look at the relationship between vote and educational attainment, the Conservatives continue to lead by a wide margin among those with high school education and those with a college degree or some university. Among those with a university degree, the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals is all but gone – the Conservatives are only marginally ahead of the Liberals.

When we compare current vote intention with past recalled vote (in 2021), we find that more than 85% of those who voted Conservative in 2021 say they will vote Conservative again (down 5 from two weeks ago). Much of those are now undecided.

In contrast, 66% of past Liberal voters say they would vote Liberal, that’s up 6 points in two weeks and up 16 points since Justin Trudeau’s resignation announcement. The Liberal coalition is coming back together. We have seen a 6-point drop in past Liberal voters who say they are undecided.

In contrast, the NDP’s 2021 coalition of voters continues to splinter. Today, just over half of past NDP supporters (56%) say they would vote NDP again. That’s down 4 points in two weeks, and down 14 points since Trudeau’s resignation announcement. 16% of past NDP supporters say they would vote Conservative while 10% would vote Liberal.

We continue to see the Conservatives getting the largest share of those who didn’t vote in the last election.

Overall, the data points to a re-consolidation of the Liberals, moderate softening for the Conservatives, and a deep splintering of the NDP’s previous support.

Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.

The Upshot

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “Donald Trump’s shadow over Canadian political discourse continues to pose a challenge for the Conservatives, as their supporter base is far less united in its opposition to the former U.S. President than backers of other parties. While many Conservatives reject Trump’s rhetoric, a notable segment remains favourably disposed towards him, creating an internal rift that simply does not exist among Liberals, New Democrats, or Bloc Québécois voters. If Trump and his policies remain a focal point of public debate, the Conservatives risk being forced to contend with these divisions at the ballot box.

At the same time, Canadians’ outlook on the direction of the country has improved significantly, with the proportion saying it is heading in the right direction now at a two-year high. This more upbeat mood often makes voters less receptive to arguments for wholesale change and more inclined to give incumbents or new faces within the governing party a second look. The Liberals stand to benefit, particularly if they can continue to distance themselves from Trump’s brand of politics, offering some change from the Trudeau years, while pitching themselves as steady hands in an improving national climate.

Perhaps the most consequential development is the rise of Mark Carney as a potential Liberal leader who can deliver on this growing demand. By pulling support from across the spectrum—including the Conservatives and, in particular, a sizable chunk of the NDP vote—Carney has the potential to narrow the Conservative lead to just four points, according to current modeling. Taken together, these factors point to a newly fluid and competitive opinion environment, unlike anything observed in the last two years. While the Conservatives remain favoured, the foundations for a tightly fought race are clearly emerging.”

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,500 Canadian adults from February 20 to 25, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian Politics

Ontario Election 2025: PCs headed for a big majority

On February 24 and 25, 2025, we conducted our final poll of the 2025 Ontario provincial election with a representative online survey of 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our fourth survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.

Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs are headed towards a big majority government, increasing their vote share from our previous poll.

Among committed voters and those who have already voted, the PCs are likely to get 45% of the vote, a four-point increase from our last poll and a larger share of the vote than the party received in the 2022 provincial election. The Ontario Liberals are at 29%, up 1 point from last week while the Ontario NDP is down 5 points to 16%. 5% would vote Green and 5% for another party.

Regionally, the PCs are numerically ahead in every region, leading by 26 points in the GTHA (not including Toronto), by 15 in southwestern Ontario, and are statistically tied with the Liberals in Toronto and eastern Ontario.

Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (51% to 28%) but face a more competitive race among women (38% PC, 31% Liberal). The PCs lead among all age groups, but their lead is greater among those aged 30 to 59. The Greens get 17% of those aged 18 to 29 in our survey.

Why are Doug Ford and the PCs set to be easily re-elected?

The desire for change has increased over the campaign, but a sufficiently large proportion of the electorate wants to see the PCs and Ford re-elected. Today, 57% say it is definitely time for a change in government in Ontario (up 9 since the beginning of the campaign) but 21% say Ford and the PCs should definitely be re-elected (only down 1). Almost all of those who say they would like the PCs to be re-elected are going to or have voted PC. But interestingly, 13% of those who say they definitely want change are also voting PC.

Among those who definitely want change, we also still see a split. 48% are voting or voted Liberal while 26% are voting NDP. Since the start of the campaign, the Liberals have increased their share of “definite change voters” (at the start of the campaign both the Liberals and NDP had 35%), but not by a sufficient margin to put themselves in a position to win the election.

When we compare our results today with past election, the desire for change number is approaching what we consider a danger zone for incumbent governments, but has not reached that point. As many people today in Ontario want to see Doug Ford and the PCs re-elected as did in our final poll in Nova Scotia (which the incumbent PC government easily won) and in our final 2022 Ontario election poll.

The PC Party has been able to overcome a growing desire for change because of three factors: it’s approval rating is relatively strong and improved in the final week, Doug Ford’s personal numbers are as good as any of the other party leaders, and voters are sufficiently focused on issues that the PCs are doing best on.

The Ford government’s approval rating rebounded this week, ending the campaign with 41% approving and 42% disapproving. This isn’t as good as when the campaign began but a solid place for an incumbent to be two days before election day.

When we asked how people feel about the party leaders, all four major party leaders end the campaign with a net favourable impression. Doug Ford is +3 (43% positive vs. 40% negative), Bonnie Crombie is +2 (33% positive vs. 31% negative), and Marit Stiles is +9 (33% positive and 24% negative).

Of note, since the start of the campaign, those with a positive impression of Bonnie Crombie have increased by 7 points (26% to 33%) while her negatives are down 3 (34% to 31%). For Stiles, her favourables are up 5 (28% to 33%) while her negatives are down 4 (28% to 24%). Those saying they don’t know enough about those leaders to have an opinion are down 8 for Crombie and 9 for Stiles.

Doug Ford started the campaign at 41% positive and ends at 43%. All in all, it is rare for all party leaders to end an election campaign better than when they started it but that’s what we are seeing in this one.

To reinforce Ford’s advantage, when we ask who people would prefer to be Premier, Ford is ahead of Crombie by 17 points when we remove those who are undecided. When the campaign started, Ford lead by a massive 31 points. Crombie’s share is up 7, but still well behind Ford.

Finally, perhaps the biggest factor in explaining the likely lopsided victory for the Ontario PCs is how they have been able to keep voters focused on issues they are more likely to own.

When we ask people what issues they most want to see debated in the election, our final poll finds little change from last week or the start of the campaign. 61% put the cost of living in their top 3 issues, followed by healthcare (40%), housing (37%), and dealing with Trump’s tariffs (32%). Since the start of the campaign, cost of living is up 1, healthcare is unchanged, housing is down 1 and Trump’s tariffs are unchanged. The campaign did not shift the focus of voters at all.

More specifically, when we ask people what is most likely to drive their vote, the cost of living still topped the list at 33% (but down 6 since the start of the campaign). Healthcare is now tied with dealing with the impact of Trump but has increased by 6 points since the start of the campaign. 14% say the party best able to manage the campaign is the biggest reason for their vote followed by housing at 9% and education at 3%. So the Liberals have been successful at increasing the salience of healthcare as a ballot issue, but not to an extent that is changing the election.

Among those who say the cost of living will be their biggest vote driver, the PCs are ahead by 18 points over the Liberals. They lead by 44 points among those who say their vote is about who is best to deal with Trump and lead by 31 points among those who say managing the economy is their primary concern.

Among the 1 in 5 voters who say healthcare is their top vote driver, the Liberals lead by the PCs by 21%. More evidence that the Liberals are winning big among those who care enough about the issue and say it is their ballot box driver. The problem for the Liberals is that the size of that group isn’t sufficient to win the election.

Finally, when we ask all eligible voters which party and leader is best able to handle several issues, we find that Ford and the PCs lead by a wide margin on responding to Trump, growing the economy, reducing the cost of living, and spending tax dollars responsibly. They are also tied or slightly ahead on education and healthcare.

And so while the Liberals have been successful at making healthcare a greater issue for more people and convincing more of those people to vote Liberal, the 2025 Ontario election ends where it began – it’s about the cost of living and the economy and the impact of Trump on both of those things. And on all of those issues, the PCs lead by comfortable margins.

Advanced Modelling of the Vote

To better explain the likely outcome of the election, I ran a binary logistic regression to estimate the impact of issue ownership on a vote for the PCs. Using the questions above, I modelled the likelihood someone would vote PC based on whether they thought the PCs are best able to handle the issues. Binary logistic regression is a statistical technique that predicts the probability of one of two outcomes (e.g., “Vote PC” vs “Don’t Vote PC”) based on one or more predictor variables.

The results indicate that believing Doug Ford and the PCs were best at managing the economy, controlling costs of living, and responding to Trump’s tariffs were the strongest predictors of a PC vote. In fact, model estimates suggest that someone who believed the PCs were best able to handle all three of these issues would have around a 75% likelihood of voting PC. Spending taxpayers’ money and education also mattered, though their coefficients were somewhat smaller. Improving healthcare had borderline significance on a vote for the PCs.

In contrast, when we model out the predictors of a vote for the Liberals and Bonnie Crombie, believing they are best able to improve healthcare was the strongest predictor of a Liberal vote. Next in importance were handling the economy, managing the cost of living, and responding to Trump’s tariffs. According to the model, if a voter thought that healthcare was the only issue the Liberals were best able to handle, their probability of voting Liberal was roughly 16%. However, if the same voter also thought the Liberals were best on the economy and cost of living, their estimated probability of voting Liberal jumped to about 73%. This underscores how healthcare alone wasn’t sufficient for the Liberals to win. They also had to convince more voters that they could manage the economy and the cost of living.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “With one day until all ballots will be cast, Doug Ford and the PCs remain on track for another decisive victory. Their share of the vote has grown since our last poll, and even though the desire for change is nearing a typical danger zone for an incumbent, it hasn’t translated into enough support for the opposition.

At the same time, we see some evidence that the Liberals have made gains—particularly around healthcare—and that the NDP and Greens have lost momentum. But those shifts don’t appear big enough to reshape the outcome. Voters remain focused on issues like the cost of living and the economy, where Ford and the PCs hold a comfortable lead. Healthcare has become more important, yet not to the extent needed to dislodge the incumbent.

Ultimately, the PCs’ ability to keep attention on their strongest issues has offset the rising desire for change. With the campaign drawing to a close, it looks like Ontario is poised to send Doug Ford and the PCs back to Queen’s Park with another majority mandate.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 24 to 25, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsProvincial Politics

Trudeau, Poilievre, Ford, and Smith: How are they doing handling the Canada-U.S. file?

Everything is about Donald Trump these days. In our issue tracking, he has become the second most cited issue. And the threat he poses to Canadians and the anxiety his decisions are creating puts immense pressure on political leaders to find the right tone, approach, and behaviour in response.

Our latest survey of 3,000 Canadian adults (February 5–11, 2025) reveals notable shifts over the past two weeks in how the public rates four key figures: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre, Ontario Premier Doug Ford, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. We replicated questions asked on a similar survey two weeks ago.

Across the country, Premier Ford continues to lead the pack, with 37% saying he’s doing an “Excellent or Good” job managing the U.S. file, compared to 28% who call his performance “Poor or Very Poor.” That net score of +14 is up from +8 just two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre perceived performance remains divided, inching up from a net of -1 to +1. Prime Minister Trudeau, though still in negative territory, shows the most dramatic rebound—moving from -34 in January to -17 now, thanks in part to his immediate response to Trump’s tariff ultimatum. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith rounds out the group at -9, a small bump from -11, though nearly three in ten still admit they don’t know enough about her to form a clear opinion.

Ontario: Ford in Front, Trudeau on the Rise
In Ontario, which accounts for almost half of Canada’s population, Doug Ford’s numbers climb even higher. Nearly four in ten (37%) Ontarians believe he’s done an excellent or good job safeguarding the province’s (and by extension the country’s) interests against an unpredictable White House. By contrast, about 34% of Ontarians say the same of Poilievre and 29% of Trudeau, while Smith lags at 19%. Ford’s lead isn’t a huge surprise: his hands-on approach to cross-border negotiations, frequent trips to American states, and emphasis on bolstering Ontario manufacturing and trade deals keep him highly visible.

Notably, though, Trudeau is the one enjoying the largest boost in Ontario, jumping from 22% to 29% giving him positive marks. The PM’s swift televised statement on the night Trump announced potential tariffs, followed by efforts to secure an exemption or delay, appear to resonate with enough Ontarians to soften previous criticisms of his leadership on U.S. relations.

Alberta: Poilievre and Smith Lead, But Gaps Remain
Turning westward to Alberta, Poilievre posts his best regional numbers, garnering a solid 40% “Excellent or Good” rating in the province. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is close behind at 38%—though she sees limited recognition or traction outside her home turf. In a region where Conservative politics have historically played well, it makes sense that Poilievre does best here, and Smith’s local popularity stands out, despite a lack of national familiarity.

Trudeau’s fortunes in Alberta remain comparatively low, but the Prime Minister has nudged himself from 10% in January to 20% this month. That’s still the lowest rating among the four leaders in Alberta, yet it’s a notable shift given his historically limited appeal there. Ford, for his part, notches 29% support in Alberta—a decent showing for a politician outside the province, though well below the two Conservative leaders in that region.

Trudeau and Poilievre are Deeply Polarizing

One notable theme running through the data is the stark partisanship that shapes views of these leaders, with Trudeau and Poilievre as the clearest examples of polarization. Trudeau enjoys a lofty net rating of +53 among Liberal voters, yet plunges to -66 among Conservatives. Among NDP supporters, Trudeau is even. Poilievre sees the opposite dynamic: a very solid +58 with CPC supporters but a dismal -62 among Liberals and -49 among NDP supporters.

Views of Doug Ford are less polarizing. He gets as high a score among Liberal supporters as he does among Conservative ones nationally. Danielle Smith’s numbers look more like Pierre Poilievre with Liberals and NDP supporters largely disapproving with Conservatives more likely to think she’s doing a good job.

The Upshot

Trudeau’s improved standing is perhaps the most striking takeaway from this survey. Although his ratings remain in negative territory overall, his jump from -34 to -17 in the span of two weeks suggests a swift, tangible shift in public attitudes. His televised speech responding to President Trump’s tariff threats, coupled with behind-the-scenes efforts to stave off an outright trade war, improved perceptions of his handling of the issue.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre continues to illustrate the country’s partisan divide: he’s deeply admired by many Conservative voters but elicits caution—or outright disapproval—from Liberals and the NDP. That dynamic is most evident in Alberta, where Poilievre sees his highest approval levels, but it also resonates in Ontario, where he still has solid support. Interestingly, though, Ontario Premier Doug Ford now stands as the most broadly approved figure nationally. His hands-on approach in negotiating with American partners and his vocal defence of Ontario’s and Canada’s economy seem to be translating into net-positive impressions well beyond his home province—an indication of his newly elevated national profile.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Canadian PoliticsProvincial Politics

Ontario Election 2025: Pre-Debate, PC lead drops as Ford’s negatives rise. Ontario Liberals clearly in second.

From February 13 to 15, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our third urvey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.

Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites but what was once a very large lead over the Liberals and NDP has tightened to just 13-points among committed Ontarians.

The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to lead, with 33% support among all eligible voters—a dip of 4 points in the last two weeks, a down 6 since just before the campaign started. The Ontario Liberals are now in a clear second with 23% (up 4), while the New Democrats (NDP) are holding steady at 17%. The Greens remain at 5%, and 19% of voters remain undecided.

Among committed voters, the PCs stand at 41%, a 5-point decline, while the Liberals (28%) are in a clear second, 7 points ahead of the NDP.

When looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs hold a larger advantage at 43% compared with 28% for the OLP and 21% for the NDP.

Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in most regions although the gap between them and the Liberals may be dropping in the GTHA. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they sit at 40% (down 12) and now only 5-points ahead of the Liberals who are at 35%. The PCs lead by 13 in Toronto, 24 in southwest Ontario and 20 in eastern Ontario.

Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (45%) but face a more competitive race among women (37% PC, 29% Liberal, 25% NDP). Age dynamics reveal a clear generational divide: among voters aged 18-29, the NDP is stronger and ahead of the PCs (36%), while the PCs dominate among those over 45. The Liberals, meanwhile, draw relatively even support with the PCs among Millennials (30 to 44).

What is driving the shift in vote intentions?

Several other key measures are shifting.

First, Doug Ford’s personal impressions are continuing to deteriorate. Today, 33% have a positive impression of the Ford, down four since our previous poll. His negatives are up four for a net score of -10. In contrast, we see both Bonnie Crombie’s and Marit Stiles’ numbers improve. Stiles’ net favourable is +4 while Crombie’s is -4 – both improvements from the last survey.

Any of the goodwill Doug Ford built up after the tariff threat from Trump has all but been erased and his personal image is back to where it was at the end of 2024.

Along with a shift in impressions of the party leaders, we also see Ford’s lead on preferred Premier close as well. Since the end of January, those who prefer Doug Ford as Premier is down 9 points from 52% to 43%. In contrast, those who premier Crombie as Premier is up 7 from 22% to 29%. Stiles is largely unchanged from the beginning of the campaign.

At the same time, we also see the provincial government’s approval rating continuing to drop with 34% approving and 43% disapproving. A return to the pre-tariff treat numbers we say in November 2024.

The Issues

The issues voters want to see discussed during the campaign have changed slightly. Dealing with Trump’s tariff threats is up 5-points to 36% now effectively tied with housing and healthcare. The cost of living is the top issue still but we have seen crime and climate change move up.

When it comes to potential ballot question cost of living and Trump are still the top two, but we have seen healthcare increase by 4 points. Cost of living and Trump are unchanged with 1 in 3 and 1 in 4 selecting it as the issue they are most likely to be voting about. Ford and the PCs lead by 8 among those who say the ballot question is affordability and lead by almost 50 among those who say it’s about dealing with Trump. Among those who rank healthcare as the top vote driver, the Liberals are ahead of the NDP by 10 with the PCs in third.

More broadly, Ford’s PCs continue to be seen as the best party to handle economic growth and job creation (33%) although down by 5 and managing the cost of living (29%) down 4. The Liberals are slightly ahead on healthcare (a seven point increase since our last survey).

Desire for Change Continues to Edge Up

As often happens over the course of an election campaign, we are seeing the number of people who definitely want to see a change in government rising. And that continues to happen in this one.

The latest survey finds that 55% of Ontarians say it is “definitely time for a change in government,” a seven-point increase since late January. However, historical comparisons suggest that this figure, while notable, does not yet indicate the PCs are in serious trouble. Once it reaches 60% the incumbents are a danger zone.

Additionally, only 17% say Ford and the PCs “should definitely be re-elected,” while 17% say they would prefer a change but don’t see it as a priority. This suggests that while there is a growing appetite for change, the opposition has yet to consolidate enough support to pose a serious electoral threat.

UPSHOT

According to David Coletto: “With the main televised leaders’ debate set to take place tonight, the PCs and Doug Ford remain the favourites in this election. Their 13-point lead is still sizeable and comfortable enough and with little over a week left time may be running out for the opposition parties to close the gap. More comforting for the PCs is the wider leader they hold among those most likely to vote.

However, we do see a tightening and a shift in views towards both Ford and his opponents. The desire for change is growing, healthcare is rising as a ballot issue, and the PC dominance over the cost of living issue isn’t as large as it has been.

The key question for the Crombie and Liberals, who are now solidly in second place when it comes to popular support, is whether they can convince NDP and Green Party supporters to coalese around them to stop Ford’s re-election.

But that proves to be a challenge – at least based on our survey. When we look at the second choice preferences of NDP and Green Party supporters, there doesn’t appear to be enough at this moment to push Crombie over the line. Only 42% of NDP supporters, and 21% of Green Party supporters say the Liberals are their second choice. Even if all those people switched their support, the Liberals would still be 2-points behind the Liberals. To get ahead of the PCs, the Liberals need to not only consolidate every last Green and NDP supporter who puts the Liberals as their second choice but also convince some PC supporters to switch as well.

That’s a tough task, but not impossible. We’ll continue to track opinions and see whether tonight’s debate has any impact our media partner at the Toronto Star.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1,500 eligible voters in Ontario from February 13 to 15, 2025.

A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.

We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.

And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.

Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

MediaPollsProvincial Politics