1 in 2 Canadians Say Immigration Is Harming the Nation, Up 10 Points Since Last Year. What’s Changed?
From October 3 to 9, 2024, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,915 Canadian adults (18+) to gauge their perspectives on immigration and its perceived impacts.
The results reveal a significant shift in sentiment, with a majority now viewing immigration negatively, largely influenced by political affiliations and age.
Concerns extend beyond newcomers, as many Canadians also express concern about domestic migration exacerbating housing shortages and straining public resources and services.
Looking ahead, perceptions of Canada’s ambitious immigration targets also signal rising apprehension among the public. This opinion environments raises questions about whether the “consensus on immigration” is broken and what the impacts will be on political opinions and behaviours and the response by policy makers at all levels of government.
Current Canadian Perspectives on Immigration
Views on immigration continue to shift. Currently, 53% of Canadians view immigration negatively, a trend significantly influenced by political affiliations. 70% of Conservative Party supporters report negative perceptions of immigration, compared to only 27% of Liberal supporters and 37% of NDP supporters. Age also plays a pivotal role; 57% of Canadians aged 45-59 tend to hold more negative views compared to 47% of those aged 18-39.
Concerns about Migration within Canada
Concerns about immigration extend beyond the arrival of newcomers; domestic migration is also a significant source of worry for Canadians. Nearly 58% express apprehension regarding internal migration, with 69% of Conservative supporters and 70% of Bloc Québécois supporters demonstrating the highest levels of concern. Interestingly, younger Canadians aged 18-29 are especially seized around issues related to domestic immigration.
Immigration Targets
Looking ahead, Canada plans to welcome nearly 500,000 new permanent residents in 2024. However, 72% of Canadians believe this target is too ambitious, an increase from 67% in November 2023 and 61% in July 2023. In just over a year, public opinion has shifted from a majoity being resistent to high levels of immigration to a super majority now signally concern. Even more noteworthy, almost half of Canadians now consider the projected number of new immigrants as “way too high,” reflecting a 7-point increase since November and a 10-point rise since July.
The perception that the immigration targets are too high is particularly pronounced among 87% of Conservative supporters, with 75% of those aged 45-59 and 76% of those aged 60 and older expressing similar concerns.
What is driving perceptions about immigration?
Many Canadians now believe that the influx of newcomers is negatively affecting key resources such as housing availability and affordability (73%, up from 69% in November), healthcare access (62%, compared to 53% in November), and social services (59%). These results reflect a scarcity mindset among Canadians, who feel that there are insufficient resources—such as housing, healthcare, and social services—to meet the demands of the growing population, resulting in perceived shortages.
Additionally, perceptions at the community level have worsened over the past year. 60% of Canadians believe that an increasing number of new immigrants negatively impacts traffic congestion (up from 51% in November), while 53% express concerns about crime and public safety (up from 39%), and 42% believe it harms community cohesion (up from 34%). This dynamic shift indicates a growing unease about the implications of immigration on everyday life, as Canadians grapple with perceived negative repercussions of the influx of new immigrants on various aspects of their daily lives.
When looking at key demographics, older Canadians – especially those aged 45-59 and 60 and older – are significantly more likely to believe that new immigrants negatively affect housing affordability, access to healthcare, and social services. Additionally, Conservative supporters are more inclined to think that the arrival of new immigrants has a detrimental impact across all these areas compared to Liberal and NDP supporters.
Does immigration make Canada better or worse off?
Currently, 53% of Canadians believe that immigration is making the country worse off, marking a substantial increase of 10- points since November 2023 and 17-points since July 2023. Supporters of the Conservative Party (60%) and the Bloc Québécois (60%) are notably more likely to hold this view, starkly contrasting with only 29% of Liberal supporters. Interestingly, Canadians aged 18-29 are less inclined to believe that immigration is detrimental compared to those aged 30 and older, highlighting a growing divide in public opinion on immigration and its perceived impact on Canadian society.
Scarcity, not Xenophobia is Driving Resistence to Immigration
Many Canadians identify shortcomings in the current immigration system. 56% note that there is insufficient housing and infrastructure to accommodate the influx of new residents, while 49% believe immigration puts a strain on public services like education and healthcare. Older Canadians (60 and over) are significantly more likely to express these concerns, with 64% stating there isn’t enough housing and 60% indicating that public services are being strained. In contrast, younger Canadians (18-29) are more inclined to view the effects of temporary immigration programs, such as student visas and temporary foreign workers, as out of control (32%). They also express concerns about perceived competition for jobs and resources between immigrants and Canadian citizens, with 31% sharing this sentiment.
Benefits of the Current Immigration System
Despite the criticisms, some Canadians do recognize the benefits of immigration. Specifically, 40% acknowledge that it helps fill gaps in the labour market with skilled workers, while 26% note that it increases cultural diversity and enrichment, and 26% believe it contributes to economic growth and innovation. However, about 3 in 10 Canadians believe there are no benefits at all to immigration.
Liberal supporters are particularly optimistic about the potential of immigration to bolster various sectors, with 48% believing it helps fill gaps in the labor market, 36% seeing it as a contributor to economic growth and innovation, 25% thinking it boosts population growth and sustainability, and 21% feeling it encourages entrepreneurship and new business establishment. Furthermore, young Canadians are more likely to see the benefits of the immigration system, particularly in increasing cultural diversity and enrichment (33%), boosting population growth and sustainability (27%), promoting international connections and trade (22%), and strengthening communities through new perspectives (20%). This highlights a political and generational difference in attitudes toward immigration, with younger Canadians and Liberal supporters remaining more optimistic about its contributions to society and the economy.
Which federal political party is best equipped to address issues with immigration?
When it comes to leadership on immigration issues, 34% of Canadians believe that Pierre Poilievre is the most capable candidate. In contrast, only 16% view Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as best equipped to handle these challenges, while just 14% feel the same about Jagmeet Singh.
This divide in perceptions widens significantly among those concerned about the current level of immigration. Among individuals who believe immigration is negatively impacting the country, 50% see Poilievre as the best candidate to tackle immigration issues, compared to only 5% who support Trudeau and 11% who support Singh. Similarly, among those holding a negative view of immigration, 52% believe Poilievre is best suited to manage this issue, with just 6% favoring Trudeau and 11% favoring Singh.
The Upshot
Over the past year, Canadian attitudes toward immigration have shifted significantly, challenging the idea that immigration is broadly accepted. If any public concensus existed on the benefits of immigration in Canada, it’s clear that concensus is now broken.
Today, a majority of Canadians view immigration negatively, a trend that highlights a scarcity mindset regarding essential resources like housing, healthcare, and social services. Older Canadians are particularly concerned about inadequate housing and the strain on public services, while younger Canadians focus more on issues related to temporary immigration programs and competition for jobs.
Concerns about new immigrants also extend to social challenges, including traffic congestion, crime, and weakened community ties, indicating a growing unease about their impact on daily life. This anxiety isn’t limited to newcomers; many Canadians are worried about domestic migration as well. The movement of people within Canada is exacerbating existing housing shortages, increasing competition for affordable living, and straining access to crucial resources like healthcare and education.
As these attitudes evolve, they carry important implications for the political landscape. Given the growing negative sentiment surrounding immigration, this trend is crucial to note, as immigration policy has the potential to play a large role in the upcoming federal election, which is something we have not seen in Canada in a long time.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,915 Canadian adults from October 3 to 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24 %, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
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