From September 28 to October 5, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,985 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. In this survey, we oversample Alberta to 500 respondents.
Note, this survey was completed prior to attack in Israel.
If an election were held today, 39% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 4%. The BQ is at 33% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, the Conservatives are down 2 while the Liberal and NDP vote share is steady.
Regionally, the Conservatives remain well ahead in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Conservatives lead by 11 in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the BQ is ahead by 6 over the Liberals.
Other questions we track have also remained relatively stable.
Only 27% of Canadians approve of the job performance of the federal government, down 2 since our last survey, and the lowest we have ever measured. 55% disapprove.
Justin Trudeau’s personal image remains overly negative with 27% have a positive opinion of him compared with 55% with a negative view. Both are largely unchanged from last wave.
Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers of people have a positive and negative view – 36% positive and 35% negative.
Jagmeet Singh, who faces the NDP convention this weekend, has 34% positive and 32% negative.
Singh is viewed more favourable by women than men, and has a much higher net favourable rating among those aged 18 to 29 than among other age groups.
Among NDP supporters, 81% have a positive view of Mr. Singh, while 1% have a negative view. Mr. Singh is also well liked among most Liberal supporters. 46% have a positive view compared with 13% who have a negative one. In contrast, Conservative generally dislike the NDP leader. 15% have a positive view compared with 60% who have a negative one.
Trudeau vs. Poilievre
In this survey, we asked a new set of questions to gauge how Trudeau and Poilievre compare head to head on several policy areas. Trudeau has an advantage over Poilievre on two items – dealing with climate change and making childcare more affordable. In both cases, more people think Trudeau is better able to handle those issues than Poilievre.
But on every other item we tested, Poilievre easily beats the Prime Minister. Most striking, when it comes to dealing with the prospect of Donald Trump as US President, 37% think Poilievre is better able to handle that compared with 28% who think Trudeau is.
On other issues, like managing the economy (Poilievre +15), building more housing (Poilievre +18), and making life more affordable (Poilievre +17), Mr. Poilievre has a clear advantage over the Prime Minister.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO, David Coletto: “It doesn’t appear that the events over the past three weeks – Zelenskyy’s visit, the House of Commons honouring someone who fought in a Nazi unit, and the news surrounding India and the murder of a Canadian Sikh leader – have had much impact on political opinions.
The Liberals remain well behind the Conservatives in vote intention. More Canadians have a positive impression of Poilievre than any other major party leader and the government’s approval rating, while no worse than a month ago, is certainly no better.
Change remains in high demand and the Liberals have been unable to reverse the drop in approval that they experienced over the summer.”
Subscribe to David’sSubstack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,985 Canadian adults from September 28 to October 5, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
The Abacus Data polling firm was out in the field over the past week, surveying almost 2,000 Canadians, and one of the questions was, “What keeps you up at night?”
From September 28 to October 5, 2023 Abacus Data conducted a representative online survey of 1,985 Canadian adults that included an oversample of 500 in Alberta. The survey asked two questions about the Alberta government’s plan to withdraw Alberta from the Canada Pension Plan.
Two Worlds: Alberta and Canada
First, when asked how closely they are following news and information about the Alberta government’s plan to withdraw Alberta fro the Canada Pension Plan and establish a separate public pension plan for Alberta, almost half of Canadians (43%) said they hadn’t heard about it before being asked about it in the survey. Another 38% had heard about it but were not following it. Only 19% nationwide were following it fairly or very closely.
But in Alberta, the result, as expected, was very different. Overall, 90% are aware of the government’s plan to withdraw from the CPP and more than half are following it fairly or very closely. This is very much a live issue in Alberta but one that hasn’t yet taken hold in other parts of the country.
Is it a good or bad idea?
Nationally, among those aware of the plan to withdraw Alberta from the CPP, 44% of Canadians think it is a bad idea, 17% think it is a good idea, while another 17% think it is an ok idea. 22% don’t know.
In Alberta, 52% think it’s a bad idea while 19% think it’s a good idea. Another 15% say it’s ok with 14% unsure. Even if you combine those who think it’s a good idea and an ok idea, that only comes out to 34%.
Albertans are the most likely to think withdrawing from the CPP is a bad idea (52%) as do close to half of those living in BC, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. Only in Quebec, where the province has had it’s own pension plan since 1966.
Demographically, those over 60 are most likely to think it’s a bad idea (59%) while only 1 in 4 Canadians under thirty, aware of the Alberta government’s plan, feel the same way.
Politically, at the federal level, a majority of Liberal and NDP supporters aware of Alberta’s plan think it’s a bad idea while Conservatives are split. 39% think it’s a bad idea, 22% think it’s good while 16% think it’s an ok idea.
In Alberta specifically, the same age dynamic exists. Older Albertans are far more likely to describe the plan as a bad idea than younger Albertans.
Politically, almost all Alberta NDP supporters think withdrawing from the CPP is a bad idea. Among UCP supporters, 30% think it’s a good idea, 22% think it’s an ok idea, and 29% think it’s a bad idea. UCP supporters are quite divided.
Also interestingly, those following the issues more closely are no more likely to think it’s a good idea than those who are only aware of it. Among those following very or fairly closely, 22% think it’s a good idea, 12% think it’s an ok idea and 55% think it’s a bad idea. Only 10% of this more engaged group are unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “This poll reveals a stark contrast in awareness and opinions between Albertans and the rest of Canada regarding Alberta’s plan to withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). While Albertans are overwhelmingly aware of the proposal, with 90% having heard about it, the broader Canadian population seems to be largely uninformed, with 43% having no prior knowledge of the plan. This indicates that the issue is of significant regional interest in Alberta but has yet to gain widespread attention nationally.
Opinions on the matter, however, tend to lean negative in both Alberta and the broader Canadian population. Among those aware of the plan, 52% of Albertans view the withdrawal as a bad idea, a sentiment shared by 44% of Canadians nationwide. Interestingly, this skepticism is shared across various provinces, age groups, and political affiliations, with older populations, in particular, being more likely to oppose the move. In Alberta, political lines also highlight divisions with the UCP supporters being split on the issue, while Alberta NDP supporters largely disapprove of the withdrawal.
The demographic and political breakdowns underscore a generational divide, with younger Canadians and Albertans less likely to view the withdrawal as negatively as their older counterparts. The data also emphasizes the role of regional dynamics and the influence of political affiliations in shaping opinions on provincial matters. As Alberta’s government considers moving forward with its plan, the division within its own province, as well as the larger Canadian context, cannot be ignored. The Premier and those who support withdrawing Alberta from the CPP have their work cut out for them and the implications on federal politics haven’t yet been felt given so few Canadians outside of Alberta even know this is an idea being discussed.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,985 Canadian adults from September 28 to October 5, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
As part of a month-long detailed investigation of the housing crisis in Canada, Abacus Data and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) conducted a large, national survey of 3,500 Canadian adults (18+) from September 22 to 28, 2023. In our first report, we examine how the housing crisis has impacted Canada’s youngest cohort – those aged 18 to 34 (n=863). The data reveals a story of profound challenges faced by these young Canadians that extends far beyond financial struggles, delving into the heart of their lives and aspirations.
Concerns with the Housing Market
The concern about the state of housing in Canada is evident among young Canadians. When contemplating the key issues that should top the federal government’s agenda, a resounding 89% of young Canadians emphasize that ensuring housing affordability should be a top priority. Correspondingly, a significant four out of five express their unease about housing affordability, while 62% have seen their concerns intensify in recent months. Considering these pressing concerns, it becomes imperative to delve deeper into the burden this situation places on young Canadians.
Financial Struggles: A Quiet Burden
The current housing crisis has had a significant impact on young Canadians, presenting them with significant financial challenges. Notably, an alarming 47% of young Canadians find themselves burdened with moderate to high levels of debt, a striking contrast to their older counterparts. Additionally, the data paints a sobering picture, revealing that nearly two-thirds (60%) of young Canadians are currently grappling with the precarious reality of living paycheck to paycheck, signifying an unsettling financial instability.
Amidst these financial pressures, the need to adjust monthly budgets due to housing expenses has become an unfortunate reality for 53% of young Canadians. They reported having to make financial adjustments to food and groceries (68%), emergency savings (57%), investments (49%), and debt payments (51%).
Worries About Housing Payments and Future Stability
Housing payments continue to be a source of concern for young Canadians. An overwhelming 89% of young Canadians have worried about paying their mortgage or rent in recent months (among those who have a mortgage/pay rent). This enduring financial unease underscores the persistent nature of the housing crisis.
Adding to their worries is the lingering uncertainty that casts a long shadow over their future. An overwhelming four in five (81%) express deep-seated concerns regarding the enduring repercussions of the housing market on their financial stability, a sentiment that resonates far more profoundly among young Canadians than their older counterparts.
Personal Impact: A Complex Reality
For these young Canadians, the housing crisis isn’t merely a financial struggle – it’s impacting their mental health and overall well-being.
Nearly two-thirds of young Canadians (61%) revealed that their financial situation, shaped by the housing crisis, negatively affects their mental health. Further, the survey also finds that the housing crisis has impacted nearly every facet of young Canadians’ lives, including their overall quality of life (73%), finances (76%), physical health (59%), family dynamics (56%), and social lives (58%) more than any other age group.
The housing crisis isn’t only influencing day-to-day life; it’s shaping major life decisions. A significant 55% of young Canadians who intend to have children admit that it has influenced the decision and timing of starting a family. Some are choosing to have fewer or no children (27%), while others are temporarily postponing family planning (28%).
The looming housing crisis is also driving young people to reconsider where they live and work. Most striking, younger Canadians are most likely to report that they are considering moving to find more affordable housing. Specifically, 46% are contemplating a move within their province, 41% are considering changing provinces, and 34% are even pondering leaving Canada all together. The risk of a brain-drain from unaffordable communities, provinces, and Canada entirely is real and acute.
A Resounding Message – Governments Haven’t Done Enough
The message from young Canadians is unequivocal: governments have not done enough to address the housing crisis. This sentiment cuts across all levels of government—federal, provincial, and municipal —painting a stark picture of disillusionment with the efforts made thus far. An overwhelming 63% express dissatisfaction with the federal government’s response, while 62% believe that provincial governments have fallen short. Meanwhile, 58% feel that municipal governments have not done enough to tackle the crisis head-on. This collective critique underscores the urgent need for more robust, comprehensive measures at all levels.
A Unified Call for Priority and Action
Young Canadians have spoken with one voice when it comes to the priority placed on housing affordability. A resounding 77% assert that it should be a top priority for the federal government, while 76% hold the same view for provincial governments. At the municipal level, 70% emphasize the importance of prioritizing housing affordability. However, a disconcerting perception gap emerges when evaluating the government’s current actions. Only 51% believe that the federal government is treating housing affordability as a top priority today, while 50% believe their provincial government sees it as a top priority, and a slightly lower 47% share the same sentiment about their municipal governments. This disconnect underscores a sense of frustration and skepticism about the government’s commitment to translating priorities into tangible actions.
Dissatisfaction with Leadership – A Shared Sentiment
Across all levels of government, young Canadians express profound dissatisfaction with the leadership’s response to the housing crisis. An overwhelming 73% express dissatisfaction with the federal government, while 72% share the same sentiment regarding provincial governments. Municipal governments also face considerable discontent, with 69% of young Canadians dissatisfied with their leadership. This collective frustration underscores a growing impatience with the perceived ineffectiveness of government efforts.
Blame Allocation – Federal, Provincial, and Municipal Roles
Young Canadians exhibit a nuanced understanding of shared responsibility in the housing crisis. While they firmly place blame on the federal government (49%) for its role in the crisis, they also hold provincial governments (40%) accountable. Only 11% believe that municipal governments are more to blame, suggesting a recognition that housing affordability is a challenge requiring broader, higher-level government intervention.
Seeking Solutions
Among the solutions that resonate most strongly with young Canadians is the expansion of the Home Buyers Plan for first-time homebuyers, with a significant 60% supporting increasing the plan’s limit from $35,000 to $50,000. This suggests that young Canadians are acutely aware of the need to make homeownership more accessible, especially for those taking their first steps into the real estate market.
Interestingly, young Canadians diverge from older generations on certain housing solutions. They are more inclined to support measures such as limiting tax-free gains on primary residences (47%) and changing the mortgage stress test to ensure buyers can afford an uninsured mortgage if interest rates rise (44%). These unique approaches reflect a willingness to explore unconventional avenues to tackle the housing crisis head-on.
Incentives and Policies – A Comprehensive Approach
Young Canadians understand that solving the housing crisis requires a multifaceted approach. They align with older age groups in supporting a range of incentives and policies. A substantial 63% express support for a First Home Savings Account, while 58% endorse the Housing Accelerator Fund. The Underused Housing Tax, Home Buyers Plan, and fostering collaboration among all levels of government and housing stakeholders also garner strong support, all with the aim of finding holistic solutions to the housing crisis.
The Upshot
This research vividly highlights that the housing crisis in Canada transcends mere economic challenges. It has evolved into a deeply personal and emotional journey for young Canadians, profoundly shaping their lives, influencing critical decisions, and imposing significant financial strains. Beyond the statistics and figures, it’s a multifaceted challenge that is redefining their very existence, compelling them to navigate difficult choices, and frustratingly delaying crucial life milestones.
The data underscores that young Canadians are not merely asking but demanding swift and comprehensive actions to address the housing crisis. Their profound dissatisfaction with government responses, their unwavering insistence on housing affordability as a top priority, and their collective attribution of blame emphasize the urgent need to confront this pressing issue head-on. The housing crisis is not an abstract concept for them; it’s a stark reality that has significantly influenced their political perspectives, igniting a fervor for immediate public policy solutions.
As the concerns over Canada’s housing crisis continue to grow among young Canadians, their frustration and disillusionment may find expression in political action. This potential surge in political engagement could herald a transformation in voting patterns, with younger citizens increasingly throwing their support behind candidates who champion affordable housing policies. Such a shift could wield considerable influence over electoral outcomes.
Furthermore, the housing crisis could give rise to inter-generational tensions, as older generations, who secured housing more easily, may be perceived as benefiting from policies that disadvantage younger ones. These tensions could permeate political debates and policy discussions, creating a dynamic that demands careful consideration.
Lastly, the enduring impact of the housing crisis may extend beyond the present moment. It could shape the long-term political engagement and ideologies of young Canadians. If a substantial portion of this demographic continues to grapple with economic challenges stemming from housing costs, their political convictions and participation could be molded for years to come, influencing their preferences for specific policies and political parties.
Overall, Canada’s housing crisis among 18-34-year-olds is not just a policy challenge; it’s a political awakening. Its impact on politics will depend on various factors, including the severity of the crisis, the responsiveness of political leaders, and the effectiveness of measures taken to address it. As young Canadians demand change, the political realm must listen to their call, recognizing that their votes, aspirations, and perspectives possess the power to transform the course of Canadian politics.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,500 Canadian adults from September 22 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.66%, 19 times out of 20.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of those aged 18 to 34 (n=863) is +/- 3.34%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
From September 19 to 25, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a representative online survey of 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey asked questions about both federal and provincial politics. This is the second report looking at provincial politics. On Thursday we released a look at federal politics in the province.
If a provincial election was held today, the NL Liberals would get 40% of the vote followed by the PCs at 38% and the NDP at 21%. Compared with the results of the last provincial election, the Liberals are down 8, the PCs down 1 and the NDP is up 13.
The Liberals are well ahead in western Newfoundland and Labrador, while the PCs are well ahead in eastern and central Newfoundland. On the Avalon Peninsula, the Liberals and PCs are statistically tied.
Demographically, the Liberals are ahead among women while the PCs lead among men. The PCs have a lead among those aged 45 to 59 while the Liberals are well ahead among those aged 60 and over. The two parties are about even among younger residents with the NDP doing best among those under 30.
When asked to rate the overall performance of the provincial government led by Andrew Furey, 37% approve while 35% disapprove. This is much better than how people feel about the performance of the federal government where 26% approve and 49% disapprove.
Views of the party leaders in Newfoundland and Labrador are all net positive. Premier Furey’s net favourable rating is +5 with 38% having a positive impression and 33% having a negative view.
NDP leader Jim Dinn’s net favourable is +17 with 30% positive and 13% negative. Interim PC Party leader David Brazil has a net favourable of +14 with 28% positive and 14% negative.
The top issues in the province are overwhelmingly the cost of living and healthcare. When asked to select the top three issues facing the province, 84% select the cost of living, 74% select healthcare, and 43% select housing affordability.
Cost of living is a top issue because so many residents are either living paycheque to paycheque or falling behind.
When asked to rate the provincial government’s performance in several policy areas, evaluations were mixed when it comes to education, growing the economy, and improving infrastructure. Views were more decidedly negative when it comes to managing the healthcare system, dealing with housing, and responding to the rising cost of living.
When asked specifically what is to blame for the rising close of living, NL residents point to multiple factors, but far more believe companies charging more to make more profits deserves much of the blame. Decisions by the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau, global supply chain shortages, and the pandemic are also frequently cited as major factors. Only 1 in 5 NL residents think decisions made by the provincial government and Premier Andrew Furey are to blame a lot.
When asked which factor is most to blame, 36% blame companies charging more to make more profit, 31% blame decisions by the federal government and Justin Trudeau., 16% blame the COVID-19 pandemic while only 3% blame decisions by the provincial government.
The PC Party Leadership Election
About 1 in 5 residents say they are following the PC Party leadership election very or somewhat closely. Among those who support the PC Party currently, that rises to 29%.
When asked their views on the three leadership candidates, most said they either didn’t know the candidates well enough to have an opinion or had a neutral impression.
Tony Wakeham had the highest awareness and net favourable while Lloyd Parrot had the lowest familiarity, and Manning had has the lowest net favourable.
Among PC supporters (not members), the results were somewhat similar. While PC supporters were more familiar with the candidates, impressions of all three candidates were generally positive. Tony Wakeham had more intensely positive views than the other two but Wakeham (+33), Manning (+31), and Parrot (+25) all had quite favourable net impressions.
When PC supporters were asked which candidate they would vote for if they were voting in the leadership election, 29% selected Wakeham, 16% Manning, and 7% Parrot. 48% said they didn’t know who they would vote for.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “Like in other jurisdictions across Canada, the cost of living is the focus for people living in Newfoundland and Labrador and no government is immune from it’s impact on political support.
Almost most residents feel that the provincial government is not handling that issue well, Premier Furey’s approval rating remains above water – more approve than disapprove. This is in sharp contrast with how people feel about the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau.
Premier Furey is generally well liked half-way into his second term as premier.
If an election was held today, it’s likely that we would see none of the parties winning an outright majority of seats as the Liberal vote share is down, the PC vote is steady with the last election while the NDP vote is up significantly.
So far, it appears the PC leadership election has not captivated the province. But if PC supporters had their choice, Tony Wakeham is the more favoured candidate.”
Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador from September 19 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Newfoundland and Labrador’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Support for the federal Conservatives now stands at 42 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador, while the Liberals are at 33 per cent and the NDP at 23 … Source: https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://ntv.ca/poll-shows-federal-conservatives-take-the-lead-in-this-province/&ct=ga&cd=CAIyGjc1Y2Q2YWMwOGE3YWEyZTk6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AOvVaw0j9yvn6w53Zt4eUqnqRCcf
From September 19 to 25, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a representative online survey of 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador. The survey asked questions about both federal and provincial politics. This is the first report looking at federal politics in the province. On Monday, we will look at the state of provincial politics in the province.
If a federal election was held today, the federal Conservatives would get 42% of the vote in Newfoundland and Labrador with the Liberals at 33% and the NDP 23%. Compared with the 2021 election results, this represents a 15-point drop for the Liberals, a 9-point gain for the Conservatives, and a 6-point gain for the NDP.
The Conservatives are well ahead in eastern and central Newfoundland, are tied with the Liberals in western Newfoundland and Labrador, and are slightly ahead of the NDP on the Avalon Peninsula and in St. John’s. The Conservatives are ahead among those aged 18 to 29 and 45 to 59, and statistically tied with the other parties among those aged 30 to 44. The Liberals lead by 14-points among those aged 60 and over.
Among me, the Conservatives lead by 18 while the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP are in a tight three-way race with women.
The Conservative lead across the province is based on several factors.
First, the federal government’s net approval rating is -23 with 26% approving and 49% disapproving. Most worrisome for the federal Liberals, those who strongly disapprove are nine times more likely than those who strongly approve (28% vs. 3%).
Second, Justin Trudeau is by far the least popular leader in the province. 50% have a negative view of the Prime Minister compared with 29% who have a positive view (net = -20). This is slightly better than the national average for the Prime Minister, but not substantially so.
In contrast, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s net favourable rating is +20 (40% positive and 20% negative) while Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has about equal numbers viewing him favourably and unfavourably (positive 33% vs. negative 34%).
The two federal cabinet ministers in NL have better net favourables than the Prime MInister. Seamus O’Regan is at +6 (32% positive vs. 26% negative) while Minister Gudie Hutchings is at -6 (18% positive vs. 24% negative). Minister O’Regan is more widely known than Minister Hutchings.
The top issues in the province are overwhelmingly the cost of living and healthcare. When asked to select the top three issues facing the province, 84% select the cost of living, 74% select healthcare, and 43% select housing affordability.
Cost of living is a top issue because so many residents are either living paycheque to paycheque or falling behind.
When asked to rate the federal government’s performance in several policy areas, evaluations were mixed when it comes to climate change, growing the economy, and improving roads and infrastructure. But on housing and the cost of living, about 3 in 4 NL residents say the federal government has done a poor job or a very poor job on those two issues.
When asked specifically what is to blame for the rising close of living, NL residents point to multiple factors, but far more believe companies charging more to make more profits deserves much of the blame. Decisions by the federal government and Prime Minister Trudeau, global supply chain shortages, and the pandemic are also frequently cited as major factors. Only 1 in 5 NL residents think decisions made by the provincial government and Premier Andrew Furey are to blame a lot.
When asked which factor is most to blame, 36% blame companies charging more to make more profit, 31% blame decisions by the federal government and Justin Trudeau., 16% blame the COVID-19 pandemic while only 3% blame decisions by the provincial government.
Not surprisingly there is a strong correlation between voting intention and blame. Liberal and NDP voters are more likely to blame companies raising prices to make more profit and the pandemic or global supply chain shortages. Interestingly, only 18% of NDP supporters blame the federal government for the rising cost of living compared with 60% of Conservative supporters who feel the same way.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “The federal political landscape in Newfoundland and Labrador mirrors the mood and opinions of Canadians across the country. Impressions of the federal government’s performance overall, its performance on key issues, and how people feel about the Prime Minister are overly negative. This, along with fairly positive impressions of Pierre Poilievre have created an environment where the Conservatives now lead the Liberals. The last time the Conservatives (or a conservative party) won the popular vote in Newfoundland and Labrador was in 1984 during the Mulroney landslide win.
It’s clear the cost of living is the focus for most voters in the province. Many blame the federal government the most for the rising cost of living and even those who don’t believe the federal government and Trudeau haven’t handled the issue well.
The weakness of the federal Liberals in what has been a consistently strong province for the party federally and the remaining province governed by Liberals provincially underscores just challenging the environment is for them today.”
Subscribe to David’s Substack to get deeper insights into what’s happening in Canadian politics.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 500 adults living in Newfoundland and Labrador from September 19 to 25, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Newfoundland and Labrador’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
