We just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote in the current federal election (August 24 to 29, 2021). Here’s what we are seeing:

CURRENT VOTE INTENTION

If an election were held now, the Liberals would win 33% of the vote (unchanged from last week), the Conservatives 32% (up 3), the NDP 22% (down 1), the Green Party 2% (down 2) and the BQ at 34% in Quebec (up 5).

• In BC, we see the Liberals at 35%, the NDP at 34% and the Conservatives at 32%. The Greens are at 2% which is the lowest number we have seen for that party in a long time.

• In Alberta, 52% would vote Conservative compared with 26% for the NDP and 14% for the Liberals, 3% for the Green Party, 3% for the People’s Party, 2% for the Maverick Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead with 50% followed by the NDP (25%) and Liberals (18%).

• In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 7 (39% to 32%) with the NDP at 22%. The People’s Party is at 4% in Ontario. The Green Party is at 2%. The Liberal lead in Ontario has been consistent in our tracking.

• In Quebec, we see the BQ with 34%, followed by the Liberals (29%), the Conservatives (20%) the NDP at 12%. The Greens are at 3% in Quebec.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (50%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (30%) and the NDP (19%).

Although the Liberals and CPC are statistically tied among all decided respondents, the Conservatives have a 2-point lead among those who are most likely to vote. Among the 69% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Conservatives have 34% compared with 32% for the Liberals and 21% for the NDP.

Turnout levels may be higher among older people than younger people, with only 59% of those under 30 saying they are certain to vote, compared to 65% among those 30-44, 76% among those 45-59 and 85% among those over 60.

TODAY VS. 2019: HOW WELL ARE PARTIES HOLDING THEIR VOTE?

The Conservatives are holding 87% of their 2019 vote, the rest has been scattered with no more than 4% going to any other party.

The Liberals have held 79% of their 2019 vote, losing 12% of that vote to the NDP and 8% to the Conservatives.

The NDP has held 83% of its 2019 vote, losing a bit more 7% to the Liberals than to the Conservatives (4%) and the BQ (3%)

The Green Party has held on to just 47% of its 2019 vote, losing a third of their voters to the NDP, 10% to the Liberals and 7% to the Conservatives.

SECOND CHOICES

Overall, 21% of decided respondents say their second choice is the NDP, followed by the Liberals (18%) and the Conservatives (10%). 28% say they have no second choice.

Conservative voters are the least likely to have a second-choice preference. Their second choice is a bit more likely to be NDP (19%) or People’s Party (16%) than Liberal (15%)

Liberal voters’ second choice is 39% NDP and 19% Conservative.

NDP voters’ second choice is Liberal 44%, Green 22%, with only 10% saying their second choice would be the Conservatives.

BQ voters would tend to drift more to the Liberals (26%) and NDP (20%) than to the Conservatives (15%).

VACCINATION STATUS AND THE VOTE

Among those fully vaccinated, the Liberals have a four-point lead (34% Liberal, 30% Conservative and 22% for the NDP). Conservatives lead by 7-points among the hesitant and by 34-points among vaccine refusers. Among vaccine refusers, 44% would vote Conservative followed by 25% for the People’s Party.

VOTE CERTAINTY

Almost four in ten of those with a vote preference (38%, down 2 points from last week) say they could change their mind about how they will vote come Election Day, including at least a third of voters in every region, almost half of voters under 30 (47%). NDP and Green supporters are the most likely to be open to switching. 32% of Conservative supporters might change, 36% of Liberal voters, 43% of BQ supporters, and 45% of NDP voters.

PREFERRED OUTCOME

Asked which of four (most likely based on today’s numbers) outcomes they would prefer, 60% would prefer a Liberal victory (31% majority, 29% minority) while 40% would prefer a Conservative win (13% minority, 27% majority). Compared with last week, preference for a Liberal government is down 3-points with a 3-point rise in preference for a Conservative in.

A Liberal win is the preference of 63% in BC, 40% in Alberta, 46% in Manitoba/Saskatchewan, 65% in Ontario, 63% in Quebec, and 69% in Atlantic Canada.

Among Liberal/NDP switchers 99% would prefer a Liberal to a Conservative victory. Among NDP voters 82% would prefer a Liberal win.

Among BQ voters 61% would prefer the Liberals win, compared to 39% who would like the Conservatives to come out on top.

Among Liberal/Conservative switchers two thirds (64%) would prefer to see the Liberals win.

Among vaccine refusers, 73% would like the Conservatives to win while 64% of those fully vaccinated would prefer the Liberals to win.

EXPECTED ELECTION OUTCOME

As of today, 43% expect the Liberals to win (down 5 since last week), followed by 23% who expect the Conservatives to win (up 5), and 9% who expect the NDP to come out on top.

Those who would prefer the LPC to win but think the Conservatives are going to win make up 2% of the electorate. This is unchanged from last week and is a good indicator of the potential of strategic voting.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 40% and negative impressions among 43%, for a net score of -3. This is unchanged from last week. Regionally, Mr. Trudeau’s net favourables are +2 in BC, -48 in Alberta, -32 in SK/MB, +1 in Ontario, +7 in Quebec, and +22 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Trudeau is +65. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers he is +46. Trudeau is +2 among the fully vaccinated and -72% among vax refusers.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 44% and finds negative impressions among 26% for a net score of +18. Positive impressions and negative impressions of Mr. Singh are up each by 2-points in the last week.

Regionally, Mr. Singh’s net favourables are +33 in BC, +7 in AB, +14 in SK/MB, +20 in Ontario, +3 in Quebec, and +34 in Atlantic Canada. Among Liberal/NDP switchers Singh is +65. Among CPC/NDP switchers he is +47.

Today 29% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader Erin O’Toole (+3 from last week) while his negatives are at 42% for a net score of -13, showing another week of gains.

Regionally, Mr. O’Toole’s net favourables are -24 in BC, +7 in AB, +2 in SK/MB, -15 in Ontario, -13 in Quebec, and -15 in Atlantic Canada. Mr. O’Toole’s improvements so far seem to be concentrated more in the Prairies and among Conservative voters who were soft in their support before the election was called. Among Liberal/Conservative switchers O’Toole is +44. O’Toole is -13 among the fully vaccinated and -9% among vax refusers.

If we compare Mr. O’Toole’s image with that of Mr. Scheer around the same time of the 2019 election, we find almost identical results. Mr. O’Toole is as unpopular with non-Conservative voters as Mr. Scheer was and as popular with Conservatives as he was at this point in the campaign.

In Quebec, BQ Leader Mr. Blanchet is 41% positive and 25% negative for a net score of +16. In contrast, Mr. Trudeau is +7 and Mr. O’Toole is -13 in Quebec.

In terms of whether people’s views are improving or declining of the three main party leaders, we find Mr. Trudeau has the lowest momentum score while Mr. Singh has the highest.

• Justin Trudeau: 19% say their impressions are improving, 40% declining, for a momentum score of -21, similar to last week. Among LPC/NDP switchers, his momentum score is +6 and among LPC/CPC switchers it is +15. Among those who voted Liberal in 2019, 20% say their impression of Mr. Trudeau has declined since the start of the campaign.

• Erin O’Toole: 31% say their impressions are improving (up 7), 26% declining, for a momentum score of +5. Among LPC/CPC switchers, his momentum score is +43. Among CPC/NDP switchers, it is +59. Among those who voted CPC in 2019, 5% say their impression of Mr. O’Toole has declined since the start of the campaign.

• Jagmeet Singh: 36% say their impressions are improving (up 4), 16% declining (unchanged), and 48% not changing for a momentum score of +20. Among LPC/NDP switchers his momentum score is +57 and among CPC/NDP switchers it is +51. Among those who voted NDP in 2019, his momentum score is +55.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE & GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today 40% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 43% disapprove. Regionally, the net approval rating for the federal government is +3 in BC, -44 in Alberta, -34 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +2 in Ontario, +4 in Quebec, and +25 in Atlantic Canada.

We are seeing a rise in those who definitely want a change in government. Today, 48% definitely want to see a change in government (up 4 from last week) while another 24% say it would be good to have a change, but it is not really that important to them, for a total of 71% who would prefer a change in government. This outlook is almost identical to the feelings we measured in the run up to the 2019 election.

The vote preference by change group is important to understanding the election. Among those who say they want change but it isn’t important (24% of the electorate at the moment), the Liberals are slightly ahead of the NDP. As long as the Liberals can win a large share of this group, they can be re-elected.

But if those in this group migrate up to “definitely want change”, it’s far less likely they will vote Liberal. As perceptions about the competitiveness of the election shifts, the split in these groups could also change.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER

Today, 36% of voters would prefer Justin Trudeau be PM after the election, 32% would prefer Erin O’Toole, and 25% Jagmeet Singh. O’Toole is preferred in the Prairies by a wide margin with Mr. Trudeau behind Mr. Singh.

In BC, 37% would prefer Singh and 34% Trudeau, followed by O’Toole at 25%. In Ontario, Trudeau is preferred by 37% followed by O’Toole (31%) and Singh (24%). In Quebec, Trudeau is well ahead of O’Toole (43% to 27%) followed by Singh at 189In Atlantic Canada Trudeau is the preference of 53% compared to 26% for O’Toole and 21% for Singh.

Asked if the choice was only between O’Toole and Trudeau, Trudeau would be the preference of 58% and O’Toole 42%. Trudeau would be chosen by 64% in BC, 59% in Ontario, 62% in Quebec and 70% in Atlantic Canada. O’Toole would be the preference of 61% in the Prairies. Trudeau would be the preference of 78% of NDP voters and 62% of BQ supporters. O’Toole would be the preference for 75% of vaccine refusers while 60% of those fully vaccinated would prefer Mr. Trudeau over Mr. O’Toole.

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: This race is about ready to kick into a higher gear, and the outcome is unpredictable. The key variables I’m watching are these:

1. Erin O’Toole has had a successful start and his gains have probably begun put him and his party under a different level of scrutiny – and made this election feel less like a referendum on Justin Trudeau and more like a conversation about the different choices on offer. Whether he and his party will fare well through that scrutiny is an unknown. The ugly protests of anti-vaxxers are a cloud that certainly does more to threaten Conservative prospects, than Liberal chances.

2. The NDP has made gains at the expense of both the Liberals and the Green Party. Will the gains hold, even as voters start to focus on the prospects of a Conservative government? If they don’t, the benefit will accrue to the Liberals, disproportionately. If the election feels like it comes down to a Trudeau or O’Toole government, soft NDP voters show a lopsided preference for the former.

3. The Liberals have been feeling the brunt of frustrations that build up over years for an incumbent government and probably extra frustrations because of the mood impacts of the pandemic. Enough voters appreciate their record and approach to prefer them to the Conservatives, by a wide margin – making that that the apparent choice and sharpening the contrast is the work that they have cut out for them in the next three weeks.

According to David Coletto: This election is now close and competitive, and the outcome is far from clear.

We see evidence that Conservative supporters are re-engaged, the desire for change is trending up, while Liberal supporters have become less interested and engaged in the election since it started. That lends itself to a good environment for Mr. O’Toole and the Conservatives.

However, while the Conservative campaign has been able to animate past supporters, it hasn’t yet made much progress in converting past Liberal, NDP, Green, or BQ supporters– hence why it’s stuck at around its 2019 vote share. It’s almost like we have returned to normal – the political environment pre-pandemic.

The only difference remains the stronger position for the NDP and Mr. Singh. Despite more viewing Mr. Singh positively than last week, the NDP’s vote share has stalled. More people are open to voting NDP (50%) than at any point in the past two years, but they remain hesitant to support the party outright. That could change, but as the dynamics of the campaign shift away from a focus on Mr. Trudeau and why the election was called, to what a potential Conservative government might or might not do, the risk for the NDP’s support to be squeezed will increase.

By suggesting he’d be open to working with Mr. O’Toole if the Conservatives win the most seats, Mr. Singh may be playing with fire given that 82% of NDP supporters would prefer a Liberal government over a Conservative one.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from August 24 to 29, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

In a federal election, the messaging and tone a political party chooses to use is important. It’s a way to curate a brand or image about their platform to voters and tell their story. It also presents current events in their own narrative. But during a federal election campaign messaging from political parties isn’t the only messaging that voters see.

In an age where many of us are staying up to date about the campaign by going online, there are a variety of sources that are talking about the election. These sources create their own narrative, tone and messaging too.

Prior to the election we’ve done extensive research on which online channels people choose to use, including millennials but during this federal election I was also interested in the source. What type of online sources are CPC voters looking at vs NDP? And are younger and older voters looking at content from the same source as well.

To learn what sources voters are getting their online content from we asked the following question: Regardless of the channel (social media, email, website) what % of the online content you’ve consumed about the upcoming federal election so far comes from the following types of sources?  Think about the original source of the information, rather than who shared it.

To start, the average voter is consuming half of their online federal election information from a traditional news organization as the original source. This number is high, but perhaps not that surprising as this could include content directly from the organization or seeing an article that a friend shared.

It is a good reminder however about the importance of how political parties and their leaders are performing in the media. If half of the federal election content the average voter reads is coming from traditional news sources, their frame and narrative is likely going to have an impact on voter perceptions.

Another important number to note is that only a tenth (10%) of the content voters see originates from the political party itself. This isn’t to say the party narrative isn’t important- content from this source likely does a great deal to shape the content Canadians are seeing from news organizations, big and small. But what it does show is that the media may be just as an important audience for political party content than the public itself.

And finally, I also think it’s worth noting that original content from someone like a friend or family member also represents just under a tenth (9%) of the content we are seeing online.

What about the content that different voters are seeing? It turns out that there are very little differences between the type of sources that CPC voters are seeing vs. LPC voters vs. NDP voters.

Though now seems like a good time to point out that we didn’t test which friends or which news organizations Canadians see. It’s very likely that the smaller, independent media sources seen by NDP voters, may be quite different that the smaller, independent media sources seen by CPC voters.

Where things do get more interesting is looking beyond the main ‘big tent’ parties, and at those who would consider voting for another party like the PPC or in Quebec, the Bloc.

Among those that would consider voting PPC, they are relying a lot less on traditional media (38%), and a lot more on content coming from political parties directly (13%) or smaller, independent news sources (16%).

The demographic split that does show a lot of difference in source is generation.

Those in the silent and boomer generations are getting over half of their information from traditional news organization (again, likely not all the same specific source but traditional news organizations generally). And millennials and Gen Z are relying on traditional news organizations a lot less- it represents just over a third of the online content they are consuming.

Instead, this is redistributed fairly evenly to other sources like political parties, someone they know, and issue specific organizations.

The different use of traditional media between millennials/Gen Z and nearly all other generations is important. It means that the narratives about the election and the way millennials think things are going could be very different than the perceptions older generations have. If young people are looking at different critiques and praises of the political parties, it could lead to different perceptions about how leaders are handling issues, or even who they decide to support when it comes time to vote.

THE UPSHOT According to Oksana Kishchuk:

During a campaign, messaging and narrative matter. Political parties can control their own, and do their best to shape others, but their narrative isn’t the only one that Canadians will be hearing this election. Instead, the average Canadian is relying on the narrative provided by traditional news organizations for half the content they are consuming about this election.

The reliance on sources other than traditional media for millennials/Gen Z is important too. Not only are their top issues different than older generations, but the narratives they are hearing are different too.

As the election continues on I will be interested in watching whether these different sources begin to show divisions between older and younger voters. Will impressions of Singh surge among young voters based on some engaging content he posts for his younger Instagram audience, but stay consistent among older voters who aren’t as likely to follow party’s or politicians? Or will older and younger voters have different perceptions about the events unfolding in Afghanistan as boomers turn to the reporting by traditional media and millennials/Gen Z read reports from humanitarian organizations instead?

METHODOLOGY

The data in this report come from a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2% 19 times out of 20, respectively. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

It is an understatement to say that how Canadians feel about the political party leaders has a big impact on how they vote. Voters are more likely to vote for a party when they rate the party leader favourably. It’s much harder for someone to vote for a party when they don’t like the leader. Favourability is not enough though. While being well-liked and respected increases the likelihood that someone will vote for you, it does not guarantee someone’s support.

After the first week of the campaign, we surveyed 2,000 eligible voters and asked a series of questions to explore in more depth how people feel about the three main party leaders: Justin Trudeau, Erin O’Toole, and Jagmeet Singh.

Here’s what we found:

JUSTIN TRUDEAU, LIBERAL LEADER

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau is viewed positively by 39% of respondents and negatively by 42%. Another 18% have a neutral view of the Liberal leader. Impressions of the Prime Minister have been fairly consistent over the past year.

He’s viewed more positively in Atlantic Canada (44%), Quebec (44%), Ontario (41%), and BC (41%) than in the Prairies (26%).

When we dig a bit deeper and ask what it is people like and dislike about him, 30% say they like both his personality and ideas, 10% like his ideas but dislike his personality, while 16% like his personality but dislike his ideas. 36% of respondents say they dislike both his ideas and personality.

• Among those who like both his personality and ideas, 76% would vote Liberal while 15% would vote NDP and 5% Conservative.
• Among those who like his ideas but not his personality, 41% would vote Liberal while 35% would vote NDP and 13% would vote Conservative.
• Among those who like his personality but not his ideas, 37% would vote NDP, 23% Conservative, and 20% Liberal.

This suggests that while personality is important, people’s views of his ideas are a bigger factor in not supporting his party.

In the survey, we also asked respondents to rate how well a series of words and phrases describe Mr. Trudeau. The Liberal leader is seen as friendly and smart by at least half of the respondents. About half also feel he’s compassionate. Fewer feel he’s a strong leader (41%), is empathetic (35%) or shares their values (35%).

On the negative side, 49% feel Mr. Trudeau is fake while 47% would describe him as untrustworthy. As we will show later in this report, this is substantially higher than the other two leaders we tested.

To better understand what attributes best predict whether someone will have a positive or negative impression of Mr. Trudeau, we used multiple regression with the attributes as the predictors of a leader’s overall impression.

For Mr. Trudeau, the strongest predictors of how people feel about him are whether someone thinks they share his values, whether he’s considered a strong leader, and whether people feel he is fake or untrustworthy.

This suggests that for Mr. Trudeau to improve his overall favourability, he needs to continue to connect his values and worldview with the public and demonstrate his strength as a leader. He also needs to work on his authenticity as being perceived as fake is the big detractor to his overall image.

ERIN O’TOOLE, CONSERVATIVE LEADER

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is viewed positively by 26% of respondents and negatively by 41%. Another 25% have a neutral view of the Conservative leader while 9% say they don’t know enough to have an impression. Since the start of the campaign, Mr. O’Toole’s positives have improved by 6-points.

Views of Mr. O’Toole are fairly consistent across the country with the exception of the Prairies where he’s viewed more positively.

When we dig a bit deeper and ask what it is people like and dislike about him, 18% say they like both his personality and ideas, 13% like his ideas but dislike his personality, while 9% like his personality but dislike his ideas. 35% of respondents say they dislike both his ideas and personality. 26% say they don’t know enough about him to know suggesting an opportunity for the Conservative campaign to continue increasing his profile.

• Among those who like both his personality and ideas, 76% would vote Conservative, 11% Liberal and 6% NDP.
• Among those who like his ideas but not his personality, 51% would vote Conservative, 26% Liberal, and 13% NDP.
• Among those who like his personality but not his ideas, 42% would vote Liberal, 24% NDP, and 13% Conservative.
• Among those who are unsure about him, 36% would vote Liberal, 26% NDP, 17% Conservative, and 12% BQ. Among this group, 41% are open to voting Conservative further evidence that the Conservative leader can continue to grow support if more people get to know him and like what they see from him.

In the survey, we also asked respondents to rate how well a series of words and phrases describe Mr. O’Toole. Half feel Mr. O’Toole is smart, 40% say he’s friendly, and another 40% think he’s a strong leader. 44% describe him as untrustworthy and 43% think he’s fake.

Like Mr. Trudeau, Mr. O’Toole struggles with empathy (only 32% think he understands people like them but unlike Mr. Trudeau, fewer think he shares their values (32%). Value misalignment is often a barrier for people to consider voting Conservative and Mr. O’Toole struggles with that at the moment.

When we look at the regression model for Mr. O’Toole, the strongest predictors of Mr. O’Toole’s overall impression are whether people think he understands them, whether people think he’s friendly, whether people think he shares their values, and whether people consider him to be untrustworthy and fake.

Unlike Mr. Trudeau, perceived friendliness and empathy are much more important factors in predicting whether people like or dislike Mr. O’Toole. Countering the view that Conservative leaders are uncaring, unempathetic, and out of touch will be important for Mr. O’Toole to improve his overall impressions with voters.

JAGMEET SINGH, NDP LEADER

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is by far the most popular leader in the country. 42% have a positive view of him compared with 24% who have a negative view. Since June, his positives are up 10-points.

Mr. Singh is viewed more positively in BC (54%) and less positively in Quebec (34%). He’s around 41-42% in every other region of the country.

When we dig a bit deeper and ask what it is people like and dislike about him, 35% say they like both his personality and ideas, 9% like his ideas but dislike his personality, while 17% like his personality but dislike his ideas. 19% of respondents say they dislike both his ideas and personality. 21% say they don’t know enough about him to know suggesting an opportunity for the NDP campaign to continue increasing his profile. And evidence suggests that as people get to see and hear more from Mr. Singh, the more they like him.

• Among those who like both his personality and ideas, 52% would vote NDP, 30% Liberal, and 9% Conservative. This suggests if the Liberal campaign falters, the NDP could benefit a lot as a substantial portion of Liberal supporters like both Mr. Singh’s personality and ideas.
• Among those who like his ideas but not his personality, 48% would vote Liberal, 20% Conservative, and 18% NDP.
• Among those who like his personality but not his ideas, 48% would vote Conservative, 36% Liberal, and 4% NDP. This is evidence that many of the NDP’s core positions turn off a sizeable group of voters, even if they like Mr. Singh personally.
• Among those who are unsure about him, 39% would vote Liberal, 29% Conservative, 10% BQ, and 8% NDP.  Among this group, 32% would consider voting NDP, more evidence that NDP can grow if the party can get him out more or if he performs well in the Leaders’ Debates.

In the survey, we also asked respondents to rate how well a series of words and phrases describe Mr. Singh. Overall, Mr. Singh is viewed more favourably than the other two leaders on all of the metrics.

Two-thirds think he’s friendly, 65% feel he’s smart, and 61% describe him as compassionate. Half think he understands people like them and 48% consider him a strong leader.

On the negative side, 25% think he’s fake while 29% describe him as untrustworthy.

When we look at the regression model for Mr. Singh, the strongest predictors of his overall impression are whether people think he’s a strong leader, whether he shares their values, and whether he is compassionate. Views on whether he’s smart or empathetic don’t impact his overall impression.

Being seen as fake or untrustworthy are important predictors of his image, but not as high as with the other leaders.

For Mr. Singh then, people believe he’s friendly, empathetic and smart. What makes them more likely to think positively of him then is whether they think he’s a strong leader and shares their values. Those are things he can focus on to improve his already strong brand image.

COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT

Before we wrap up, it’s helpful to look at how people view these leaders in comparison and dig a bit deeper.

Here’s a summary of what attributes people assign to the leaders among those with an opinion. Mr. Singh is more likely to be seen as friendly, compassionate, and smart than the other two leaders. He also scores higher on “strong leader”, empathy and “shares my values”.

When we isolate those open to voting for each of the main parties, a similar picture emerges although the gaps are smaller.

Among those open to voting Liberal, 80% think Mr. Trudeau is friendly, 73% think he’s smart, and 70% think he’s compassionate. 64% think he’s a strong leader while 58% think he shares their values. But as a liability, about 1 in 4 of those open to voting Liberal think Mr. Trudeau is fake and untrustworthy.

For Conservative accessible voters, 73% think Mr. O’Toole is smart, 65% think he’s a strong leader, while 64% think he’s friendly. Fewer feel he’s compassionate (57%), share their values (59%) or understands people like them (59%). About 1 in 5 think Mr. O’Toole is untrustworthy (22%) or fake (19%).

For Mr. Singh, who has the most room to grow among his accessible voters, 85% think he’s friendly, 81% think he’s smart, and 79% think he’s compassionate. But he also scores high on empathy (75%) and shares my values (71%). Fewer describes him as untrustworthy (17%) or fake (12%).

When we look at the 21% of the electorate we consider Liberal/NDP Switchers (those whose first choice is either Liberal or NDP and whose second choice is either Liberal or NDP), Mr. Singh leads Mr. Trudeau on all positive measures. The gap on “strong leader” is smaller than the others but Mr. Singh has a 13-point advantage on “compassionate”, a 16-point advantage on “smart” and an 18-point margin on “shares my values”.

When we look at the 9% of the electorate we consider Liberal/Conservative Switchers, Mr. Trudeau leads Mr. O’Toole on “compassion” (+11), “friendly” (+20), “empathy” (+14) and “shares my values” (+7). But Mr. O’Toole leads on “smart” (+5), “strong leader” (+5). Both are about equal on perceptions they are “fake” or “untrustworthy”.

UPSHOT

This analysis helps us understand the role leadership and character may be playing in this campaign. Mr. Singh clearly has an advantage over the other two leaders on general likeability and positive traits. He benefits from being liked by those across the political spectrum, many of whom tell us they’d never vote NDP. For example, 15% of those who have a positive view of Mr. Singh say they would not consider voting NDP. That’s higher than the equivalent cut for the Liberals and Conservatives.

For Mr. O’Toole, this data shows there’s still an opportunity for him to increase his profile and improve his overall image. His liabilities are perceptions about values and empathy which often are liabilities for Conservative leaders. But he holds his own on being smart and a strong leader.

For Mr. Trudeau, this data shows that impressions of him are largely baked in and will be harder to change. Six years in office have taken a toll on his image, especially around empathy, authenticity, and trustworthiness. That being said, he’s more popular today than he was at this point in the last campaign and carries many assets and is well-regarded by those open to voting Liberal (which is the largest group in the electorate).

Whether Mr. Singh can capitalize on the goodwill though remains to be seen. When Jack Layton broke through in 2011, he had two very polarizing (Harper) and unpopular (Ignatieff) leaders to contrast with.

He’s facing a different set of opponents this time and many of those who like him are currently voting for other parties. His popularity may help him consolidate his vote share and insulate the NDP from strategic considerations.

Our analysis shows that being liked is not a function of just one or two positive attributes. Being compassionate drives Singh’s evaluation but does not impact O’Toole or Trudeau. Voters generally view Trudeau as compassionate but this does not make them feel more favourably towards him.

There are, however, two negative attributes that strongly impact leader evaluations for all three leaders – being perceived as fake and untrustworthy. Not surprisingly, these are the two main negative attack strategies of the parties.

METHODOLOGY

The data in this report come from a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2% 19 times out of 20, respectively. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

The US has a prevalent urban-rural divide, which often finds itself impacting how individuals vote, with rural voters swaying to the right, and urban to the left. As the federal election kicks off, we’re noticing that this divide is not unique to our southern neighbours. When considering current voter intentions, urban voters are  inclined to favour the Liberals, who lead by 14 among this group. However, among rural voters, the Conservative party leads the Liberals by 3.

Furthermore, when we look back at data from Aug 11th,  there are very limited differences in the issues that are most likely to drive votes this election. Urban voters are slightly more likely to prioritize housing and are less likely to prioritize access to healthcare than rural voters. With that being said, Urban and Rural voters are relatively consistent on the remaining issues that will drive their vote. Cost of living continues to be the key issue this election, with 62% of Canadians including it in their top 5.

UPSHOT

Although the current vote intention widely differs between the two, it is evident that, here in Canada, we aren’t as divided as we think. Whether urban or rural, Canadians in general find themselves in agreement over the key issues that will drive their vote this election.

Overall, it’s not the differing priorities that define these two groups, but rather how these priorities are expressed. Canadians of all walks of life are a lot more similar than many are willing to believe.

METHODOLOGY

The data in this report come from two surveys.

One was conducted online with 3000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 6 to 11, 2021 and the other with 2,000 Canadian adults from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8% and +/- 2.2% 19 times out of 20, respectively. The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

We just completed a national survey of 2,000 Canadian adults eligible to vote (August 17 to 22, 2021).

After the first week of the campaign, here’s what we are seeing:

GOVERNMENT APPROVAL

Today 41% approve of the job being done by the Trudeau government, while 42% disapprove. Regionally, net approval is +4 in BC, -36 in Alberta, -22 in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, +3 in Ontario, +11 in Quebec, and +7 in Atlantic Canada.

DESIRE FOR CHANGE

At the time of the 2019 election, 69% wanted change including 52% who felt strongly about it. Today, 71% want change, which includes 44% who feel strongly about it. The desire for change hasn’t changed much in the past week.

LEADER IMPRESSIONS

Justin Trudeau enjoys a positive impression among 39% and negative impressions among 42%, for a net score of -3. This is unchanged from last week. Regionally, Trudeau is +2 in BC, -41 in Alberta, -21 in SK/MB, 0 in Ontario, +9 in Quebec, and +11 in Atlantic Canada.

Jagmeet Singh enjoys a positive impression among 42% and finds negative impressions among 24% for a net score of +18. Positive impressions of Mr. Singh are up slightly in the last week (+3). Regionally, Mr. Singh’s is +34 in BC, +3 in AB, +23 in SK/MB, +18 in Ontario, +10 in Quebec, and +22 in Atlantic Canada.

Erin O’Toole’s image has improved over the past week. Today 26% have a positive impression of the Conservative leader (+5) while his negatives remain at 41% for a net score of -15. Regionally, Mr. O’Toole is -20 in BC, +1 in AB, -14 in SK/MB, -16 in Ontario, -15 in Quebec, and -7 in Atlantic Canada.

In terms of whether people’s views are improving or declining of the three main party leaders, we find Mr. Trudeau has the lowest momentum score while Mr. Singh has the highest.

• Justin Trudeau: 20% say their impressions are improving, 36% declining, for a momentum score of -16. Among those open to voting Liberal but not currently supporting the party, 18% say their views of Mr. Trudeau are improving while 25% say they are declining (score -7).

• Erin O’Toole: 24% say their impressions are improving, 28% declining, for a momentum score of -4. Among those open to voting Conservative but not currently supporting the party, 28% say their views of Mr. O’Toole are improving while 16% say they are declining (score +12). Among those with a neutral view of Mr. O’Toole, 18% say their views are improving while 12% say they are declining.

• Jagmeet Singh: 32% say their impressions are improving, 16% declining, and 52% not changing for a momentum score of +16. Among those open to voting NDP but not currently supporting the party, 41% say their views of Mr. Singh are improving while 5% say they are declining (score +36).

FEDERAL VOTE INTENTION

If the election were today:

• The Liberals would win 33% of the vote (unchanged from last week, and the same result they got in 2019).

• The Conservatives would garner 29% (+1 from last week but still down 5 from their 2019 result)

• The NDP would get 23% of the vote (+1 over the week, and 7-points above their 2019 result)

• The Green Party would find 3% support (-2 in a week and down 4 from 2019.

• The BQ at 29% in Quebec (down 2 from last week down 3 from their 2019 result.

The regional races look like this:

• In BC, we see the Liberals at 33%, the NDP at 31% and the Conservatives at 28%. The Greens are at 7%.

• In Alberta, 45% would vote Conservative, 30% for the NDP, 15% for the Liberals, and 5% for the People’s Party.

• In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, the Conservatives lead by 9 over the NDP and Liberals.

• In Ontario, the Liberals lead by 6 (36% to 29% for the Conservative Party) with the NDP close behind at 26%. The People’s Party is at 5% in Ontario.

• In Quebec, we see the Liberals with 35%, followed by the BQ (29%), the Conservatives (19%) the NDP at 11%. The Greens are at 3% in Quebec.

• In the Atlantic provinces, the Liberals (45%) are well ahead of the Conservatives (32%) and the NDP (16%).

Some additional breakouts that are worth noting:

• The NDP and Liberals are statistically tied among those under 30 (NDP 35%, LPC 32%, CPC 20%). The Liberals have a 5-point lead among those aged 30 to 44 (LPC 32%, NDP 27%, CPC 26) while the Conservatives and Liberals are competitive among those aged 45 and over.

• The Liberals have a 7-point lead among those with a university education while the Conservatives have a 4-point lead among those with a high school diploma or less.

• Among union members, 38% would vote Liberal, 28% Conservative and 21% NDP. The NDP does slightly better among those who are not unionized.

• Among those who have received CERB or live in a household who has received CERB, the Liberals are ahead by 8 (LPC 36%, NDP 28%, CPC 26%).

• Among homeowners, the Conservatives lead by 6 (CPC 36%, LPC 30%, NDP 19%). Among renters, the Liberals lead by 14 over the NDP (LPC 39%, NDP 25%, CPC 20%).

VOTE BY THOSE WHO SAY THEY DEFINITELY WILL VOTE

Among the 72% of respondents who said they would definitely be voting, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 31% with the NDP at 22%. The BQ is at 7%, the People’s Party at 4%, and the Greens at 3%.

OPEN TO CHANGING MIND?

Right now, 60% of decided voters say they have made up their mind and won’t change while 40% say they could still change their mind about who to vote for.

About two-thirds of Conservative, BQ, and Liberal supporters say their mind is made up (69%, 67%, and 63%), while less than half of NDP (47%) and Green (42%) supporters say they are locked into their choice.

Among those who are firm in their choice, the vote split is 34% Liberal, 34% Conservative, and 18% NDP.

It’s clear many current NDP and Green supporters are still up for grabs. Among these soft NDP and Green supporters, 79% would prefer Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister over Erin O’Toole and 83% would prefer some form of Liberal government while 17% would prefer a Conservative government of some form.

INTRODUCING THE SWITCHERS

To understand the potential shifts in the electorate over the final four weeks of the campaign, we identify two key voter groups: LPC/CPC switchers and LPC/NDP switchers.

LPC/NDP Switchers are those whose first preference is either Liberal or NDP and whose second preference is either Liberal or NDP. In total, they make up 21% of the entire electorate.

Currently, 55% of this group would vote Liberal and 45% would vote NDP. In 2019, 55% voted Liberal, 23% voted NDP and 17% did not vote. 3% voted Conservative while 1% voted Green.

79% have a positive impression of Mr. Singh while 63% have a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau. 55% would prefer Mr. Trudeau as PM after the election while 44% would prefer Mr. Singh.

76% think the Liberals are going to win the election versus 14% who think the NDP will win. 7% are unsure.

Between Justin Trudeau and Erin O’Toole, 97% would prefer Mr. Trudeau to be Prime Minister after the election while 3% would prefer Mr. O’Toole. 99% would prefer a Liberal government and 1% would prefer a Conservative government.

When asked to select the top two issues from a list, 30% selected cost of living, 29% selected climate change, 24% improving the healthcare system and 20% selected making housing more affordable. 16% said getting more people vaccinated and getting the country back to normal quicker was a top 2 issue for them.

LPC/CPC Switchers are respondents whose first preference is either Liberal or Conservative and whose second preference is either Liberal or Conservative. In total, they make up 9% of the entire electorate.

Currently, 64% of this group would vote Liberal and 36% would vote Conservative. In 2019, 50% voted Liberal, 25% Conservative, 3% NDP, and 21% did not vote.

62% have a positive impression of Mr. Trudeau compared with 42% for Mr. O’Toole although 44% have a neutral opinion of Mr. O’Toole.

72% think the Liberals are going to win the election versus 21% who think the Conservatives will win. 55% are unsure. 73% would prefer a Liberal government after the election while 27% would prefer a Conservative one.

When asked to select the top two issues from a list, 29% selected improving Canada’s health care system, 28% picked growing the economy, and 26% reducing the cost of living. 18% said getting more people vaccinated and getting the country back to normal quicker while 14% picked climate change and reducing carbon emissions.

A CLOSER LOOK AT ONTARIO

In Canada’s most populous province the Liberals hold a 6-point lead over the Conservatives (35% to 29%) which is unchanged from last week. The NDP is not far behind at 26%.

Regionally in Ontario, we find the Liberals well ahead in Toronto (Liberal 48%, Conservative 22%, NDP 20%) but a close three-way race in the Greater Toronto/Hamilton/Niagara region. The Liberals are at 32%, the Conservatives 31%, and the NDP 30%. In Eastern Ontario, we have the Conservatives and Liberals basically tied (36% to 35%) with the NDP at 21% while in Southwestern Ontario, the Liberals and Conservatives are tied at 30% with the NDP not far behind at 25%.

Some other insights to consider:

• Accessible voter pools: In Ontario, the pool of accessible voters is 57% for the Liberals (-4 since before the election), 52% for the NDP (unchanged) and 47% for the Conservatives (+5 since before the election).

• Leader Impressions: While positive impressions of Mr. Singh are largely consistent (before election call 43%, today 42%), those with positive views of Mr. O’Toole in Ontario are up 3 (21% to 24%) and Mr. Trudeau’s positives are down marginally by 2-points (43% to 41%).

• Desire for Change: There has been no change in the more intense desire for change in Ontario. Before the campaign, 43% of Ontarians definitely wanted a change in government, the same number as today.

METHOD OF VOTING?

When asked how they think they will vote in this election, 34% said they planned to vote in person on Election Day, 28% planned to vote at an advance polling location before election day, while 21% intend to vote by mail. 17% were not sure yet.

Among those who say they will definitely be voting in the election, 38% plan to vote in person on Election Day, 31% at an advance poll, and 18% by mail.

Liberal and NDP supporters are more likely to say they intend to vote by mail (Liberal 24%, NDP 25%, CPC 18%) while Conservative supporters are more likely to say they will vote in person on Election Day (CPC 41%, 34% Liberal, NDP 32%).

UPSHOT

According to Bruce Anderson: “Voters are signalling that now that the hypothetical election is an actual election, they will consider their choices carefully, and are open to persuasion. There’s no doubt that younger voters in particular are showing high levels of interest in the NDP as we’ve reported on for a few months and this trend is continuing. Erin O’Toole is out of the gates well, but still has an image deficit relative to his competitors and Conservative vote intention is hobbled a bit by the presence of the People’s Party on the ballot.

The Liberals see competition from the Conservatives among older voters and from the NDP among younger voters. Clearly there is more to be gained or lost with progressive voters, with so many NDP and Green Party voters unsure if they really want a change in government, and definitely preferring a Liberal to a Conservative outcome. It’s too early to read much into the public mood about any specific thing that has happened in the campaign, but it’s not too early to know that a lot of different outcomes are possible, and winning the vote will take real effort and getting those ballots cast will also require an unusual effort by the campaigns.”

According to David Coletto: “After week one of the campaign, the Liberals continue to hold a five-point national lead over the Conservatives and not a lot has changed in many of the metrics we regularly track like mood, desire for change, government approval, or leader impressions.

Mr. O’Toole seems to have made the most progress over the first week as his positives are up 6-points in a week. Although, the Conservative vote share remains below 30%.

Based on our momentum numbers, Mr. Singh likely had the best week with Mr. O’Toole not far behind. Mr. O’Toole seems to have made a lot of progress over the first week as his positives are up 6-points in a week but he still has a wide affinity gap that he will need to close quickly. The NDP are inching up, especially in Ontario, but the Conservatives are still stuck below 30% in our tracking.

This data also shows that much of NDP and Green support is soft, and many might be persuaded to vote strategically if the Conservatives appear in contention. By a 66-point margin, soft NDP and Green supporters would prefer some form of Liberal government rather than a Conservative government after the election is over.

If voters want this election to be about affordability, housing, the economy, and climate change, the results of this survey give us some insight into how those potential ballot questions are playing out.

Right now, neither Mr. Trudeau nor Mr. O’Toole has an advantage on the economy. Mr. Singh has a slight advantage on housing, while the Liberals and Mr. Trudeau lead on who voters think is best on climate change.

But when it comes to affordability and reducing the cost of living – the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives are all within three points of each other and none of them have a clear advantage on the issue more voters say will drive their vote than on any other.”

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

The survey was commissioned and paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Elections often feel like a referendum on the previous 4 years, or in this case 2 years. A choice between “kicking the bums out” or acknowledging that we are better off than perhaps we would be otherwise. So what role does voter emotion play in election campaigns and outcome? Are Canadians happy or unhappy with where we are now?

With the first week of the campaign underway, in the books, the average happiness score is 64.8 out of 100. Our overall happiness is consistently higher than it was last fall and winter. While this is good news for the incumbent party, as it may indicate a potential “reward” for getting us through the pandemic so far.

Happiness and Political Engagement Go Together

It turns out that political participation is related to happiness. The average happiness score for people who didn’t vote in 2019 is 55.1; a full ten points lower than the average Canadian. Voters for the smaller parties are also less happy now. Those who voted Liberal, Conservative and BQ in 2019 are the most happy now. NDP voters in the last election are, however, a major party of voters who are not happy right now.

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While we don’t know if their unhappiness caused them to not vote, unhappiness, it appears, is part of a disengagement with community. Those who don’t trust other people are much less happy. The happiness score for those who trust other people always is 76.0. This is 24 points higher than for people who never trust other people.

While unhappiness may be a motivator to act for change, it also appears (perhaps over time) to disengage Canadians from the political process. This is important because of the very strong relationship between age and happiness. Older Canadians are much more happy than those under 30 years of age.

UPSHOT

According to Richard Jenkins: The improved positive emotion that Canadians have now compared with the pandemic offers the incumbent some good news. The three big questions are: (1) Will young people punish the incumbent as a reflection of their relative unhappiness or will they simply disengage? (2) Does the relative happiness of Conservative voters from 2019 offer the Liberals a chance to convert them to Liberal voters in 2021? (3) Will the unhappiness of NDP voters from 2019 lead to NDP gains?

We know that emotion will be central the happiness levels of different kinds of voters are likely to impact the strategies that parties use to activate them and get them to vote.

METHODOLOGY

Our survey was conducted online with 2000 Canadians aged 18 and over from August 17 to 22, 2021. A random sample of panellists was invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20. In Canada the data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

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ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.

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Each day during the 2021 Federal Election campaign, researchers at Abacus Data will share insights and analysis from our polling in concise, insights-focused reports. To never miss our polls and analysis, subscribe to our newsletter.

Yesterday we examined “Despite O’Toole” Tory voters and what made them unique. What jumped out most was not that they exist, but how many of them there were in the current CPC vote, especially compared to substantial pro-Singh and pro-Trudeau enthusiasm among NDP and Liberal voters.

Is this something that can be reasonably expected to evolve for Mr. O’Toole? By no means a comprehensive analysis, we looked to see how the Prime Minister’s experience tracked in each election prior, being the only candidate with more than 2 federal elections under his belt. We examined polling results recorded at the start of each respective campaign period for 2015 and 2019 to see how they compared to the strong relationship between his reputation and vote intention today.

Of the waves sampled, Justin Trudeau’s vote has always had strong synergies with his personal popularity, with both his 2015 and 2019 LPC voting bloc seeing strong affect for the Prime Minister. Today’s LPC vote is even more associated with the Prime Minister than it was before (+6 % pts view him positively).

I don’t interpret these data points to mean anything particularly good or bad for the Prime Minister, only to say that there is some evidence that a vote for LPC has been more about PM Trudeau personally, and that any possible phenomenon of LPC voters holding their nose to vote for the PM because of a “big L” Liberal brand loyalty seems both scarce historically and in the present day.

That said, though “Despite Trudeau” voters are few and far between, they exist. And their foundational political perspective is that the Liberal option is better than alternative. Few are unhappy with what the Liberals are done, but they are far less likely to say the Trudeau has done a good job overall. They accept a mixed record and are willing to park with the LPC for now.

What to make of all this? The early data suggests that the Liberals’ existing support may be stickier than what O’Toole’s team is working with. That doesn’t mean he’ll never beat Trudeau’s popular vote. It only means existing Liberal voters – wholly 33% of the voting public – today have maintained a fondness for the Prime Minister through significant tenure with a fair share of scandals.

It’s worth acknowledging that there are many who dislike the Prime Minister and have removed themselves entirely from the Liberal camp to begin with, no doubt driven to other political homes. And there are, to be sure, plenty of voters to steal from all across the political spectrum. Yet having the majority of the 33% of voters who would vote Liberal today comprised of Justin Trudeau enthusiasts will make stealing vote share from the governing party a bit harder than might otherwise be the case.

METHODOLOGY

The survey was conducted with 1500 Canadian adults from August 9^th to 12^th, 2021. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.5%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/

ABOUT ABACUS DATA

We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.

Find out more about what we are doing to help clients respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail and exceptional value.

We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2019 Canadian Election.

Contact us with any questions.

Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.