As a recent Abacus Data poll showed, 43 per cent of respondents think Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is better at managing the economy, with just 28 per cent saying the same about Trudeau. And Poilievre’s steadfast refusal to talk about anything other than the economy reflects what the Toronto Star’s Susan Delacourt describes as “the core belief among his inner circle that the next election will be fought and won on the economy and little else.”
David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, joins CPAC’s Michael Serapio to discuss the latest federal polling numbers and Canadians’ satisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
From October 27 to November 1, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,220 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. This survey was conducted entirely after the carbon tax announcement on Thursday afternoon.
In this report, we share new data on:
Federal vote intentions with a deeper look at the possible road back for the Liberals.
Party leader impressions with a deep dive on why more than half of Canadians have a negative view of Justin Trudeau.
Which party Canadians think will win the next election.
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 39% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 26%, the NDP at 18% and the Greens at 5%. The BQ is at 34% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, we see almost no change with the Conservatives and NDP down 1 and the Liberals holding steady at 26%. In fact, since the end of July, vote intentions have changed very little and it appears we have entered a new normal where the Conservatives consistently lead by double digits.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 8 in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, we find the BQ ahead by 8 with the Conservatives and Liberals statistically tied. This is the first time we have measured the Conservatives numerically ahead of the Liberals in Quebec. Before concluding this is a real shift, we need to see more data but if it is happening, this is a notable change in vote intentions in Quebec.
The only regional brightspot for the Liberals is Ontario, where we have the Liberals trailing by only 4, smaller than it has been in recent surveys.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 2 among 18 to 29 year olds, 12 among 30 to 44 year olds, 9 among 45 to 59 year olds and 13 among those aged 60 and over.
Is there a road back for the Liberals?
In this survey, we asked some new questions to try and gauge whether the Liberals could stage a comeback.
First, among those who don’t currently support the Liberals (78% of the electorate), 31% say that there is still a chance they would vote Liberal (representing 24% of the entire electorate). Many of these people either voted Liberal in 2021, currently support the NDP, or are undecided. Among 2021 Liberal voters who don’t currently support the party (8% of the electorate), 2 in 3 say there is still a chance they would vote Liberal.
Among those who say there is still a chance they could vote Liberal, 34% are currently supporting the NDP, 21% support the Conservatives, 8% support the BQ and the rest are split between the Greens, People’s Party and other parties. More than 1 in 4 say they are undecided.
What might entice them to vote Liberal?
We asked those who don’t currently support the Liberals whether some outcomes or factors would make them more or less likely to support the Liberals.
1 in 3 say they are more likely to vote Liberal if Justin Trudeau was no longer Liberal leader
1 in 3 say they would be more likely to vote Liberal if mortgage interests started to drop
40% say they would be more likely to vote Liberal if the economy improved
About 1 in 3 said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if it became clear Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were likely to win the next election or if they felt uncomfortable with Pierre Poilievre as Prime Minister.
All five outcomes offer the Liberals some hope that they could rebuild their winning coalition, but there’s no clear silver bullet, including the Prime Minister stepping down as leader before the next election. It’s likely a combination of these will need to happen to overcome the desire for change people are feeling.
But digging a bit deeper into these numbers gives us a bit better sense of what might need to happen for the Liberals to find a way back into contention.
When we look specifically at two subgroups – those who currently support the NDP and those who voted Liberal in 2021 but don’t currently support the party (aka the switchers), we find that many of these outcomes, especially the prospect of a Conservative government or improving economic conditions might entice many into the Liberal tent. The fact that the prospect of Trudeau stepping down doesn’t have as strong an appeal might suggest that the Liberal brand is so associated with Trudeau that voters cannot look past it.
Party Leader Impressions
As usual, we asked Canadians how they feel about the main political party leaders.
Jagmeet Singh has seen a slight rebound in his positives. Today, 37% say they have a positive impression of him compared with 32% who have a negative view for a net favourable of +5.
Pierre Poilievre has also seen an improvement in his overall image, rising 4 points since last wave and 5 points since mid-September. Today 40% have a positive view of Mr. Poilievre compared with 32% who have a negative view for a net favourable rating of +8. Pierre Poilievre is now the most popular leader in Canada.
For Prime Minister Trudeau, impressions remain decidedly negative although somewhat less so than a month ago. Today, 29% have a positive view of the Prime Minister compared with 53% who have a negative view for a net favourable impression of -24. The Prime Minister’s negatives are down slightly – from 56% in September to 53% today. Still though, they remain far higher than we saw two years ago around the time the Liberals were re-elected.
Trudeau’s image is about the same among men and women now and he’s viewed more positively among younger Canadians. Regionally, his net favourable ratings are better in Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec than they are in the West,
Why does one’s impression of Justin Trudeau matter so much? Because it is highly correlated with vote intention.
Among those with a positive impression of Trudeau (29%), 64% are voting Liberal, 18% NDP and 7% Conservative.
Among those with a neutral view of him (15%), 26% are voting Liberal, 22% Conservative with 39% voting NDP.
Among those with a negative view of him (53%), 63% are voting Conservative, 14% NDP, and 3% Liberal.
If you don’t like Justin Trudeau or say you have a negative impression of him, there’s almost no chance right now that you’re voting Liberal. That’s the strength that leadership plays on the Liberal Party’s brand.
In this survey we also asked only those who said they have a negative impression of the Prime Minister to pick between two descriptors that they feel comes closest to their view. My objective is to try and uncover what it is about the Prime Minister that some don’t like – especially those who voted Liberal in 2021 but today say they don’t like the Prime Minister.
The answers are pretty striking.
For everyone who has a negative view of Justin Trudeau, almost 6 in 10 say they are tired of him rather than not liking him as a person – in other words, 31% of Canadian adults say they have a negative view of the Prime Minister and one of the reasons they do is because they are tired of him. This is sense of fatigue is especially true of those who have a mostly negative view rather than a very negative view of him.
Digging deeper into those who are tired of Trudeau and have a negtive view of him, 11% of them who voted in 2021 voted for the Liberals. Only 9% think the country is headed in the right direction and only 16% would consider voting Liberal at the moment (69% are open to voting Conservative). If an election was today, 62% of these tired of Trudeau detractors would vote Conservative, 17% NDP, 8% BQ, 6% Green and only 3% Liberal.
Half say they think he has lost the passion for the job rather than still wanting the job of Prime Minister.
More than half think he doesn’t listen to good advice rather than he surrounding himself with yes-people.
And more than half feel he’s not trying to change enough about what is wrong with Canada rather than trying to change too much of what makes Canada great.
But perhaps most instructive, almost all Trudeau detractors agree that he doesn’t have a clear visision about where he wants to take the country, he is inauthentic and phony, and he makes promises he can’t keep.
The perceived lack of vision, authenticity, and ability or willingness to follow through on promises are fundamental to why more than half of Canadians have a negative view of the Prime Minister. Add to the fact that many are simply tired of him means it is unlikely that he himself can do much in the short term to change these views.
Who will win the next election?
For the first time since the last election, we asked Canadians who they thought would win the next election. By a significant margin, Canadians are far more likely to think the Conservatives will win than the Liberals (43% to 20%). Another 10% think the NDP will win with 28% saying they are undecided.
Among Conservative supporters, almost all (87%) think the Conservatives will win while a majority of Liberal supporters (59%) think the Liberals will win. 14% of Liberal and 16% of NDP supporters think the Conservatives are most likely to win.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “These results suggest that the political opinion environment has solidified to some extent. After more than four years of a fairly competitive environment between the Liberals and Conservatives, we have clearly entered a new phase where the Conservatives have and sustain a sizeable lead over the Liberals.
This lead is built on widespread dissatisfaction with the Liberal government, a broad and deep desire for change, and fairly negative impressions of the Prime Minister along with improving impressions of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.
Most people who support the Conservartives expect them to win but that view isn’t shared yet among Liberal, NDP, or undecided voters. That factor is important in trying to understand how voters might react and behave if that outcome feels more and more likely to them. Will that encourage strategic voting? Will that push Liberals to seek alternative leadership? Will that increase scrutiny on the Conservatives?
The path back for the Liberal is there but it’s incredibly narrow. Once someone has a negative impression of you, it’s very hard to change that view. Once they decide they are tired of you, they are less likely to listen to what you say and may even discount your arguments simply because they have lost interest, respect, or affection. This is where the Liberals and Justin Trudeau find themselves right now.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,200 Canadian adults from October 27 to November 1, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
In the final segment of our four-part series investigating Canada’s housing crisis, conducted in collaboration with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), we pivot our attention towards evaluating the Canadian public’s perceptions of government performance at all three levels.
These findings, sourced from a survey of 3,500 Canadian adults aged 18 and above, conducted between September 22 and 28, 2023, provide a comprehensive perspective on a crisis that necessitates the collective focus, collaboration, and innovative solutions of government bodies at every tier to ensure that all Canadians can exercise their fundamental right to a secure place they can call home.
Pervasive Housing Market Apprehensions
Housing market apprehensions permeate the Canadian landscape, with an overwhelming majority of citizens identifying escalating rent costs (91%), overall affordability challenges (90%), and the scarcity of affordable rental options (85%) as significant issues impacting Canadians today. Notably, 4 in 5 Canadians express overwhelming concerns regarding the affordability of housing in Canada. This collective unease is further underscored by the fact that half of the population has witnessed their concerns about housing affordability intensify in recent months (52%). These concerns are compounded by the prevailing perception that both buying (71%) and renting (75%) residential properties in Canada have become notably more difficult in recent months. Overall, results reveal that a striking 75% of Canadians firmly believe that housing, in its current state, is simply unaffordable.
Government Response and Public Perception: Bridging the Gap: Aligning Government Priorities with Public Expectations
A stark divergence between the government’s perceived priorities and the expectations of Canadians has come to the forefront. The findings reveal that most Canadians believe that housing affordability should be a top priority for federal (77%), provincial (75%), and municipal (68%) governments, while fewer perceive these issues as current priorities (57% for federal, 59% for provincial, and 38% for municipal). This glaring disparity underscores the imperative for better synchronizing public expectations with government actions to effectively combat the housing crisis.
Scrutiny on Government Competence: A Three-Level Assessment
The competence and efficacy of government entities at all three levels in addressing housing concerns have now become a subject of intense scrutiny among the Canadian populace. A substantial 45% of Canadians assert that the federal government has actively contributed to the increased complexity of residential property acquisition, a sentiment mirrored by 43% regarding provincial governments. Even more astonishing, close to two-thirds of Canadians maintain the conviction that no tier of government – whether federal, provincial, or municipal – has exhibited adequate dedication to tackle the affordability crisis in the housing market.
Echoes of Dissatisfaction: Assigning Blame, Identifying Barriers, and the Cry for Effective Government Response
Canadians are highly dissatisfied with government responses to the housing crisis, with 75% expressing their discontent with the federal government, 72% with their provincial counterparts, and 68% with municipal authorities. These widespread discontented sentiments underscore the urgent demand for a more effective and coordinated approach from all levels of government. Additionally, when it comes to identifying responsibility for the ongoing housing crisis, 49% of Canadians attribute it to the federal government, closely followed by 41% placing blame on their provincial government. This prevailing perception highlights the need for improved collaboration between federal and provincial authorities, a sentiment held by two-thirds of the Canadian population (66%), to address the housing crisis effectively. This perception underscores the urgent need for enhanced cooperation and coordination between government tiers to address the housing crisis adequately.
Solutions and Opportunities for Change
The resounding call for immediate and resolute action resonates across the nation. Now, more than ever, Canadians anticipate government authorities at all levels to use to the occasion and assume a leadership role in addressing this urgent matter. As we conclude our four-part analysis of Canada’s housing crisis in partnership with the Canadian Real Estate Association, it is imperative to emphasize the need for a call to action. This call underscores the pivotal role government at all three levels must undertake to address this crisis effectively.
Support for Innovative Housing Design: A significant majority of Canadians endorse innovative housing design and construction (64%). This involves adopting modern construction techniques and technology to expedite the creation of high-quality housing, addressing the growing demand for homes while enhancing housing quality.
Reducing Development Charges and Land Taxes: A majority of Canadians, nearly 60%, back the idea of cutting local government development charges and land taxes. These charges often inflate the cost of new housing, limiting accessibility. Lowering these fees at the federal level can contribute to increased housing affordability.
Accelerating Zoning: Speeding up zoning procedures is a vital aspect of tackling the housing crisis. With 58% support, it’s evident that a substantial number of Canadians view it as an effective approach. Faster zoning translates to quicker construction and more housing units, addressing the demand in high-pressure housing regions.
Infrastructure Focus: Although not the most popular option, channeling federal infrastructure investments into road upgrades and light rail lines remains a viable approach with 56% support. This strategy seeks to create new housing development opportunities by enhancing transportation infrastructure. While it may take time to witness the full effects, these investments can have a lasting positive impact on housing availability.
Overall, the voices of Canadians underscore the urgency of addressing the housing crisis through a multifaceted approach. Innovative housing design, reductions in development charges and land taxes, expedited zoning procedures, and an emphasis on infrastructure investments reflect some of the initiatives that Canadians support. These findings illuminate the necessity of collaborations at all levels of government to implement solutions that resonate with the Canadian population, ultimately ensuring affordable and accessible housing for all.
The Upshot
The housing crisis in Canada has hit a critical juncture, characterized by significant challenges related to the affordability and availability of housing. The results underscore the widespread lack of confidence Canadians hold in all levels of government to effectively resolve the housing crisis. Dissatisfaction with current government actions, a perception that the issue isn’t receiving the priority it deserves, and the belief that insufficient measures have been taken to date are prevalent.
The resounding call for immediate and resolute action resonates across the nation. Now, more than ever, it falls upon the federal government to step into a leadership role and address this pressing issue. As we conclude our four-part analysis of Canada’s housing crisis in partnership with the Canadian Real Estate Association, it is imperative to emphasize the need for a call to action. This call underscores the pivotal role the federal government must undertake to address this crisis effectively.
Prioritize Housing Affordability: Recognize housing affordability as a top priority for the federal government. Listen to the voices of Canadians, where 82% have emphasized the paramount need for affordable housing. Align government priorities with the public’s expectations.
Coordinate Government Efforts: Housing affordability is a multifaceted issue that spans federal, provincial, and municipal jurisdictions. Forge strong partnerships and collaborative efforts between all levels of government to create a unified approach to addressing the crisis. Housing knows no boundaries; neither should our solutions.
Streamline Housing Policies: Develop comprehensive and streamlined housing policies that are responsive and effective. The current housing market apprehensions demand well-thought-out measures that ease financial burdens for both renters and homebuyers. This may involve tax incentives, subsidies, and strategic investments to make housing more affordable and accessible.
Innovate and Expedite: Embrace innovative housing design, streamline zoning processes, and reduce development charges and land taxes. These solutions have garnered significant support from Canadians and can expedite the availability of affordable housing units.
Crisis of Access and Affordability: It is important to remember that the housing crisis is not just about affordability but also about accessibility. Policies should address the needs of all Canadians, ensuring that everyone has a fair opportunity to access quality and affordable housing.
The time for action is now. The federal government has the opportunity to lead the way in ensuring that housing in Canada is accessible, affordable, and of high quality. By responding to the widespread concerns of Canadians and taking decisive steps, the government can make a lasting and positive impact on the housing landscape.
However, failure by the federal government to take a leadership role in addressing the housing crisis risks worsening an already dire situation with severe consequences. The crisis has caused widespread discontent among Canadians, and a lack of effective action could further erode public trust and confidence in the government. Failing to address the housing crisis prolongs suffering, tarnishes the government’s reputation, and may lead to political repercussions and public discontent. Inaction is not an option, as it jeopardizes the government’s standing in the eyes of the Canadian populace.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,500 Canadian adults from September 22 to 28, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.66%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Canadians have “notable knowledge gaps” about the cost and performance of electric vehicles, which may be holding them back from making that first EV purchase, concludes a survey commissioned by Electric Mobility Canada (EMC).
The majority may still think EVs are more expensive and less dependable and durable than gas vehicles, judging by an Abacus Data survey of 1,500 Canadians just released by EMC. Dispelling these misconceptions through public education could be the key to ensuring their next car is a plug-in.
Abacus Data conducted a fascinating survey recently of smaller companies for Business Development Bank of Canada’s Small Business Week.
Entrepreneurs don’t feel good about where we’re at. More than 60 per cent of 600 respondents said they think the Canadian economy is doing poorly, while 29 per cent said they thought the economy was doing “pretty well” and only seven per cent said the economy was doing “very well.”
As we embark on the third segment of our in-depth investigation into Canada’s housing crisis, a collaborative effort with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), we turn to an exploration of the financial challenges faced by families with children aged 18 and under. This extensive study, encompassing responses from 3,500 Canadian adults aged 18 and above, was conducted from September 22 to 28, 2023. The data paints a clear picture, portraying the economic hurdles that Canadian families with young children grapple with, as they content with economic uncertainty while navigating the current housing crisis, requiring them to make difficult decisions along the way.
Concerns with Affordability
An overwhelming 82% of Canadian households with children under the age of 19 express a strong belief that the government should give top priority to making housing more affordable. Additionally, a substantial 72% advocate for governmental measures to reduce the amount of personal debt carried by Canadians, with this sentiment being notably higher among families with children than those without. These statistics underscore the acute financial pressures experienced by families in their daily lives, amplified by the current cost of living and the housing crisis. It’s evident that Canadian families, especially those with young children, are seeking substantial relief and support from the government to alleviate their financial hardships.
Among those with children aged 18 and under, a substantial 57% report an increase in their concerns regarding housing affordability over the past few months. In contrast, this figure is slightly lower for households with children over 18 (48%) and individuals without children (53%). This data illuminates the growing unease felt by families with young children, highlighting the pressing nature of housing affordability as a top priority for these households.
Financial Hardship
Homeownership Anxiety: For those who have children under 19 and own their homes, 87% made their purchase at a time when interest rates were lower than the current rates. While this might have seemed like a sound financial decision at the time, the data unveils a pressing issue: 80% of these homeowners are now concerned about their ability to afford their monthly mortgage payments when their mortgage comes up for renewal. The dream of homeownership, once seen as a secure investment in one’s family and future, now carries the heavy burden of uncertainty.
Renters’ Dilemma: For renters, the situation is no less challenging. A striking 78% of renters with children 18 and under expressed deep concern about their ability to manage an increase in rent, should such an eventuality arise. With the cost of living on the rise, rent hikes pose a substantial threat to the financial stability of Canadian families. Further, 67% of renters with children under 19 also worry about the possibility of losing their current rental unit when their current rent agreement comes up for renewal. In a competitive rental market, where affordable housing is increasingly scarce, this fear is not unfounded.
Personal Finances
Strain on Families: Undoubtedly, the current housing market has inflicted significant harm on Canadians, especially families with children under 19. A striking 41% of such families report a personal negative impact from the housing market. These families are enduring widespread hardship, with 71% facing financial difficulties, 65% experiencing a decline in their quality of life, and 54% grappling with strained family dynamics. This toll surpasses the effect seen on families with older children and those without children.
Financial Challenges Faced: A substantial 43% of families with children aged 18 and under categorize their current household finances as poor (vs. 32% among families with older children and 40% among those without children). Furthermore, a worrisome 60% of families with children under 18 are currently wrestling with moderate to overwhelming levels of debt, considerably higher than the 38% for families with older children and the 41% for those without children. This heavy debt burden creates a precarious financial predicament for these families.
The Dream of Homeownership
Within the demographic of individuals who presently do not own a home and have children under 19, a significant 74% express their desire to eventually become homeowners. However, nearly half of this group (48%) find themselves compelled to delay their home acquisition due to the current housing market conditions, pushing their dream of homeownership further into the distant future. When asked about the reasons behind this postponement, financial factors take center stage, with 70% citing the current cost of living, 61% pinpointing high mortgage interest rates, and 55% indicating difficulties in saving for a down payment.
Optimism is also starting to dwindle within this group, as 30% are optimistic but growing concerned about their ability to ever buy a home, 18% have become pessimistic about their prospects, and 14% have altogether abandoned the dream of homeownership. These findings underscore the extent to which young families are compelled to postpone their homeownership aspirations due to ongoing financial challenges and their struggles to save for the future.
Cost of Living Pressing Down on Canadian Families
Cost of Living: The data reveals that a 9 in 10 Canadians with children 18 and under acknowledge that their cost of living has significantly increased over the past year. Further, 61% of families with children under 19 note that they have had to adjust their day-to-day expenses, primarily due to mortgage or rent hikes. This figure contrasts starkly with just 30% of households with children over 18 and 38% of those without children who have had to adapt to these rising costs.
Living on the Edge: Furthermore, a significant 64% of families with children under the age of 18 report living paycheck to paycheck, leaving little room for financial security and unexpected expenses. This percentage is notably higher compared to the 43% of families with children over 18 and the 50% of those without children who face similar financial challenges. These families are acutely vulnerable to financial instability, underlining the urgent need for relief measures.
Financial Sacrifices: The ripple effect of these changes is felt across all aspects of life. Families with children under 18 have been compelled to make sacrifices, especially in areas like food and groceries, where 67% have had to curtail their spending. Furthermore, 63% have had to sacrifice emergency savings, and 56% have found themselves needing to make sacrifices in debt payments. It doesn’t end there; education investments, critical for securing the future, are also being affected, with 37% of these families having to trim their commitments. The impact on Canadian families is significant, with the rising cost of living leaving them with little room for financial security and investments in their future.
The Upshot
The results outlined in this article carry significant personal and political implications for Canadian families. On a personal level, the findings underscore the profound challenges and anxieties that families, especially those with children under 19, are grappling with due to the ongoing housing crisis and financial instability. The dreams of homeownership and financial security have been replaced with concerns about affording mortgage payments, rent increases, and mounting debts. These challenges extend to daily living expenses and the ability to invest in their children’s education and future. The toll on family well-being and quality of life is unmistakable, further accentuating the urgency for concrete solutions.
From a political perspective, these results have clear implications for government priorities and policy decisions. With such overwhelming support among Canadian households for government action on housing affordability and debt reduction, there is a growing mandate for policymakers to address these issues comprehensively. The data underscores the necessity of crafting and implementing effective measures to make housing more accessible and to ease the financial burdens on families. The government’s responsiveness to these concerns will be pivotal in addressing the acute financial pressures felt by citizens, particularly young families. Neglecting these issues could have far-reaching implications on social and economic stability.
Overall, these findings are a compelling call to action for both individuals and policymakers. For Canadian families, they highlight the urgency of addressing housing affordability and debt reduction as top priorities for improving their financial and familial well-being. On the political front, the results reinforce the need for responsive, effective, and well-crafted policies to address these challenges and support the future stability of Canadian families and the broader economy.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,500 Canadian adults from September 22 to 28, 2023. The current results focus on 784 families with children 18 and under. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.50%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Earlier this week, we completed a national survey of Canadian small business entrepreneurs as part of the Business Development Bank of Canada’s Small Business Week.
The survey interviewed a representative sample of small business owners and leaders from October 11 to 16, 2023. The objectives of this study was to see how small business owners are feeling about their business and the broader economic environment, to explore generational differences in perceptions, and to understand the persistent perceptual gap in the thinking of small businesses that sees business leaders feeling good about how their business is doing even when they feel bearish about the Canadian economy.
Here is a summary of what we found.
Bullish about their business; Bearish about the Canadian economy
Eight in ten small business entrepreneurs in Canada describe their business as doing very well or pretty well today. At the same time, 64% of these same business owners feel the Canadian economy is doing poorly. Despite pessimism about the country’s economy, the proportion of business leaders (80%) who think their business is doing well today think it will be doing well 12 months from now.
Moreover, when we ask about profitability, demand, and sales, most think those aspects of their business will improve or stay about the same. In other words, despite most entrepreneurs believing that the economy is poor and will remain poor over the next 12 months, most think their business won’t be impacted that much.
So, the expected perceptual gap exists. 44% of business leadership who report their own business doing well also feel that the Canadian economy is doing poorly. Among those who think their business is doing pretty well, 64% believe the Canadian economy is doing poorly.
In contrast, fewer are likely to think their business is doing poorly but also think the Canadian economy is doing well.
Overall, almost half of Canadian small business entrepreneurs (44%) think their business is doing well despite believing that the Canadian economy is doing poorly.
What might explain this perceptual gap?
One place to look is the confidence that small business leaders have in their skills and the competitive position of their businesses.
Most Canadian small business leaders give themselves positive ratings when it comes to running their business. Between 50% to 70% believe they are doing an excellent or good job prioritizing and managing their time efficiently, leading people from different generations, protecting their business data, responding effectively to changing market and economic conditions, and balancing work in life. In short, entrepreneurs are pretty bullish on their own business abilities.
At the same time, when we ask entrepreneurs whether their business is better, worse, or about the same as other businesses they compete directly with, most believe the quality of their products and services are better than most and they have better customer and client loyalty. In contrast, when it comes to agility, team culture, and profitability, half or more think their business is about the same or worse than other businesses they compete with.
And so, part of the answer lies in entrepreneurs feeling they can overcome macro-economic challenges that might be impacting the broader business environment.
Later in the survey, we specifically asked entrepreneurs who felt their business was doing well but the Canadian economy wasn’t, why they felt that way.
Based on the responses, several reasons can be discerned as to why small business entrepreneurs in Canada believe their businesses are doing well despite their concerns about the broader economy.
Firstly, many businesses have carved out unique niches or cater to specific markets that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations. Examples include the art business, which caters to clients not significantly influenced by economic conditions, and the mental health industry, which might even see increased demand during tough times.
Secondly, experience plays a pivotal role. Entrepreneurs with years or even decades of experience have weathered previous economic storms and possess the skills and knowledge to navigate challenges effectively. They have cultivated loyal customer bases, operate in sectors resistant to automation or technological takeover, and in some cases, benefit from diversified sources of revenue, such as international exports or clients across borders.
Lastly, many highlighted their efficient business models, low debt, or prudent financial management, which gives them a buffer during economic downturns. Even in a challenging economy, these entrepreneurs emphasize the importance of quality, customer service, and adaptability, which they believe are the keys to their businesses’ resilience.
What else did we learn?
Half of small business entrepreneurs feel it is harder to run a small business today than it was 10 years ago. Interestingly, older entrepreneurs (40+) were more likely to feel this way than younger ones. Only 15% say it’s easier to run a small business today compared with 10 years ago.
Why is it easier? Entrepreneurs point to several reasons. Central to these is the exponential growth and accessibility of technology, particularly the internet, which offers multiple avenues for sales, promotion, and reaching a global customer base. The widespread use of social media platforms facilitates business growth and promotion, and numerous online tools and platforms simplify the management and operational aspects of businesses. Furthermore, the Canadian government provides enhanced resources, aids, tools, and continual support for small to medium-sized businesses. Access to digital marketing tools, online resources, and the shift towards e-commerce, especially post-COVID, have made running a business more convenient and less reliant on physical infrastructures.
Why is it harder? Small business entrepreneurs believe it is more challenging to run a business today due to several converging factors. The economic landscape has evolved, with heightened concerns about cash flow, increased costs in areas like shipping, importing, and basic necessities, as well as challenges related to inflation and rising interest rates. The digital age has ushered in a wave of worldwide competition, further saturating many industries. Additionally, government regulations have become more stringent, adding to the administrative burden for businesses. The COVID-19 pandemic has left an indelible mark, changing consumer behavior and exacerbating supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, businesses face increased competition not only from other local entities but also from global giants, with the added pressure of adapting to rapid technological changes and navigating an environment of economic uncertainty. Labour challenges, both in terms of cost and availability, have also been highlighted, along with shifting sentiments regarding prices and spending among consumers.
Entrepreneurs say they look at employment figures, inflation, interest rates, and business closures/openings in their community as the main indicators of the macroeconomic picture. Many also equate their own personal finances with the broader economic picture. But the most important indicator to entrepreneurs of the health of the economy right now is inflation. Higher inflation signals a weaker economy, in their minds.
An entrepreneur’s housing and mortgage situation has some impact on their business outlook, but not substantially so. For example, those with a larger mortgage – over $500,000 – are 20-points more likely to say their business is doing poorly than those with a smaller mortgage on their principal residence (37% vs. 17%). Likewise, those who own their principal residence are slightly more likely to feel their business is doing well than those who rent or live with family (82% vs. 75%).
The Upshot
The Perceptual Gap is Real: Many Canadian entrepreneurs believe their businesses are thriving despite their pessimism about the broader Canadian economy. This could be attributed to their belief in the superiority of their products/services, the diversity of their market, or their ability to adapt to changing conditions.
Self-Confidence: The majority of business leaders are confident about their managerial skills, which might influence their positive outlook on their own business despite a gloomy economic scenario. They believe they can navigate the challenges better than others.
Generational Differences Exist: Older entrepreneurs tend to find it harder to run a business today compared to a decade ago. This might be due to rapid technological changes and the challenges of adapting to a digital landscape.
Technology is a Double-Edged Sword: While technology has enabled businesses to reach global audiences and streamline operations, it has also increased competition. Businesses are not just competing locally but with global entities, making the marketplace more saturated.
COVID-19’s Impact is Still Felt: The pandemic has altered consumer behaviors, brought about supply chain disruptions, and has set a tone of economic uncertainty.
Inflation is a Key Economic Indicator: For most entrepreneurs, rising inflation is a sign of a weakening economy. This could impact their business decisions, such as pricing strategies and cost management.
Housing and Mortgages Play a Role: Entrepreneurs’ personal financial situations, especially concerning housing and mortgages, influence their business outlook to some extent.
Why Do These Results Matter?
Informative for Policymakers: These insights can be useful for policymakers to understand the mindset of small business owners, which can guide policy and economic decision-making. If entrepreneurs are basing their economic outlook on certain indicators like inflation, then managing these indicators becomes even more crucial.
Economic Forecasting: The dichotomy between business performance and economic outlook can provide economists with interesting data points when predicting future economic directions.
Support Systems: Knowing that entrepreneurs view technology as both an enabler and a challenge, support systems, training programs, or incentives can be designed to help them harness its benefits fully.
Sectoral Planning: By understanding what entrepreneurs view as challenges (like rising shipping costs, stringent government regulations, etc.), specific interventions can be planned for sectors most affected by these challenges.
How are Canadian Small Business Leaders Feeling?
Canadian small business leaders are generally optimistic about their individual business’s prospects, largely due to their confidence in their skills, product quality, and adaptability. However, there is a notable apprehension about the broader Canadian economy. This dichotomy presents a unique scenario where businesses are preparing for growth amidst perceived economic challenges.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 600 Canadian small business entrepreneurs from October 11 to 16, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s small business leader population by sector, region, and business size.
This survey was paid for by the Business Development Bank of Canada
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:
From October 10 to 15, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a survey of 1,000 Ontario adults exploring their views on provincial politics and government. This survey was part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
If a provincial election was held today, the PCs would likely win another majority government with 40% of decided voters saying they would support the PCs (up 6 since last month) followed by the Ontario Liberals and NDP who are tied for second at 24% apiece.
The rise in PC support is mostly the result of a drop in support for the Liberals and NDP and a rise in undecided voters (from 20% to 27%) than a substantial surge in PC support.
Regionally, the PCs are well ahead in Toronto, the GTHA, and in southwestern Ontario while competitive with the Liberals in eastern Ontario and competitive with the Liberals and NDP in Northern Ontario.
Since August, the Ford government’s approval rating is unchanged with 30% approving and 47% disapproving.
When we asked respondents a similar question we started asking about the federal Liberal government about a desire for change, only 20% of Ontarians believe that Doug Ford and the PCs deserve to be re-elected. 47% think it’s time for a change and there’s a good alternative while 33% believe it’s time for a change but don’t think there’s a good alternative to Doug Ford and the PCs. A clear indication that neither the Ontario NDP or Ontario Liberals have firmly established themselves as an alternative government in waiting.
Digging deeper in the Greenbelt saga, we asked a question we have asked twice before – whether the decisions the Ford government is making are primarily about what’s in the best interest of Ontarios or are primarily in the interest of his friends and supporters. This month, those who are unsure has increased by 6-points but a majority (56%) continue to believe that Ford is making decisions primarily in the interest of his friends and supporters.
Now when respondents were told that Ford reversed his government’s decision to swap land in the Greenbelt for development, 62% felt it was the right decision (including 68% of past PC voters). Only 16% felt it was the wrong decision.
When asked whether the Greenbelt decision was part of a bigger problem with Doug Ford and the PC government or an isolated incident, 52% felt it was part of a bigger program while 24% thought it was an isolated incident and 24% were not sure or did not know. Noteworthy, 1 in 3 past PC supporters believe the Greenbelt decision reflects a bigger problem with Ford and his government.
Finally, this survey was conducted after news broke that the RCMP had opened up an investigation into how the Greenbelt deals were handled. Over the period the survey was conducted (October 10 to 15), about 1 in 4 Ontarians hadn’t heard the news yet. Another 44% are aware but not following it closely while 27% are following news of the RCMP investigation either pretty or very closely.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “The Progressive Conservatives (PCs), under Doug Ford, appear to have arrested a decline in their popularity, which could be attributed in part to Ford’s reversal and subsequent apology over the Greenbelt saga. Although the PCs have witnessed an uptick in the vote share among decided voters, this increase is more a consequence of falling support for both the Ontario Liberals and NDP and an increase in the undecided voter demographic rather than an inherent rise in PC popularity.
Regionally, the PCs enjoy dominance in Toronto, the GTHA, and southwestern Ontario. However, when it comes to voter sentiment, only 20% feel that the PCs deserve reelection, indicating a prevailing undercurrent of discontent and a significant desire for change. While 47% desire a change and identify the presence of a viable alternative, a significant 33% wantchange but feel there’s no worthy substitute. This suggests that neither the NDP nor the Liberals have been able to position themselves as a credible alternative, reflecting a potential vacuum in opposition leadership, and one that may resolve itself once the Liberals elect their new leader later this year.
Diving into the Greenbelt issue, a majority (56%) still perceive Ford’s decisions as being influenced more by the interests of his friends and supporters rather than those of Ontarians. This sentiment could have been a contributing factor to the declining support in earlier polls.
However, Ford’s decision to reverse the Greenbelt land swap received overwhelming approval, with 62% agreeing it was the right call. It’s evident that this move has helped to mitigate some of the political fallout from the scandal. But, on assessing if this was a singular misstep or indicative of a broader pattern of governance, 52% felt it pointed to a more significant problem, highlighting that while the reversal was well-received, deeper issues of trust persist – albeit with only a slight majority of people in the province.
Notably, awareness surrounding the RCMP investigation into the Greenbelt deals remains relatively low; almost a quarter of Ontarians are still unaware, and only 27% are closely monitoring the developments. Should charges be laid as a result of this investigation, it’s uncertain how this might further impact the PCs’ standing and whether this would provide the necessary momentum for opposition parties to gain traction.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,000 eligible voters in Ontario adults from October 10 to 15, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
We continue our month-long investigation of the housing crisis in Canada partnering with the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), to carry out a comprehensive nationwide survey involving 3,500 Canadian adults aged 18 and above, conducted from September 22 to 28, 2023. In this report, the second installment of our investigation, we delve into the repercussions of the housing crisis on low-income renters, specifically those with a household income of $50,000 or less. The data paints a bleak picture of the challenges and apprehensions confronting this vulnerable demographic, as they grapple with the surge in housing costs and the eroding affordability of shelter.
Concerns with Affordability
A staggering 94% of low-income renters agree that the surging rental costs in Canada pose a serious problem. Furthermore, 86% express deep concern regarding the lack of affordable rental properties in the country. The weight of mounting rent expenses is especially burdensome for those aged 51-65 (97%) and those aged 66 and above (98%).
The anxiety surrounding housing affordability is emphasized by the fact that 86% of renters are concerned about this issue. Furthermore, 69% of renters have witnessed their worries about housing affordability escalate in recent months. The obstacles to entering the housing market are disheartening for potential homeowners, particularly those with constrained incomes, marking the crisis’s deepening nature and underscoring the need for action to address its root issues.
Rental Market Struggles
Low-income renters are also grappling with challenges in the rental market. A significant 77% reveal that over the past year, locating affordable rental properties in their area has grown notably more challenging. This exacerbates the already daunting task for low-income individuals and families in their quest for secure and stable housing.
In conjunction with this, there is a concerning trend of diminishing housing availability. A significant 65% of renters acknowledge that over the past few years, the accessibility of affordable housing options has worsened. This signals a (perceived) widespread shortage of such housing options throughout the nation, thereby limiting renters’ choices. This can pose intricate challenges for renters, especially those with lower incomes, as their housing alternatives become significantly more restricted compared to their counterparts.
The Financial Hardships Faced by Low-Income Renters
A substantial 62% of low-income renters categorize their household finances as poor. This financial fragility is most pronounced among those aged 51-65, with 73% indicating the dire state of their financial affairs. Notably, individuals between the ages of 35-50 aren’t far behind, as 65% also describe their household finances as poor.
Moreover, a distressing 77% of renters earning $50,000 or less find themselves living paycheck to paycheck, grappling to make ends meet. This precarious financial situation is especially prevalent among those aged 35-50 and 51-65, where a striking 85% of individuals in both age groups find themselves in this delicate predicament.
An overwhelming 90% of these renters affirm that their cost of living has risen over the past few months. The increasing expenses related to essential necessities like groceries, utilities, and transportation compound the financial challenges they already endure due to housing costs.
These elevated percentages signify that a significant portion of this demographic is unable to set aside savings for the future or withstand unforeseen financial crises. This paints a stark picture of economic instability, with many renters teetering on the brink of financial distress.
Widespread Concerns of the Current Rental Market
A significant 79% of low-income renters express concerns about their ability to pay their rent. This pervasive worry is most acute among younger renters aged 18-34, with a striking 93% voicing these concerns. However, it is essential to note that these concerns are not limited to the young; they are also prevalent among those aged 35-50 (80%), underscoring the widespread anxiety surrounding rental affordability.
In addition to these pressing affordability challenges, three out of four low-income renters harbor apprehensions about their ability to handle potential rent increases. Beyond the issue of affordability, a substantial 57% of low-income renters worry about the possibility of losing their current rental units. These fears reflect the vulnerability of this group to any upward adjustments in rental costs, which could result in severe financial hardship or, worst-case scenario, eviction.
A distressing 78% of low-income renters express concerns about the long-term impact of the housing market on their financial stability. Once again, younger renters aged 18-34 (81%), those aged 35-50 (80%), and those aged 51-65 (80%) are particularly worried. These figures shed light on the broader implications of the housing crisis for the financial well-being of low-income Canadians, as it erodes their ability to save, invest, and plan for the future.
The data makes it clear: the housing crisis is not only about the immediate affordability challenges; it is also causing long-term financial instability and pervasive anxieties about housing security. Urgent and comprehensive solutions are needed to address this crisis, ensuring that low-income renters can find relief and stability in an increasingly turbulent housing market.
Potential Improvements to the Rental Market
In addressing the housing crisis, low-income renters advocate for several key solutions. Specifically:
78% call for increased government-supplied affordable housing, recognizing the need for stable and affordable options;
77% support income-based subsidies to provide targeted assistance to those grappling with housing costs;
73% advocate for stricter rent controls, offering a safeguard against steep rent hikes and ensuring stability; and,
67% emphasize the importance of incentivizing developers to create affordable rental properties, which could expand the supply of rental units.
These results highlight the fact that low-income renters actively seek solutions that involve both government intervention and private sector involvement, underscoring the urgency of addressing housing affordability. Policymakers at all levels of government should heed these recommendations, working towards a more inclusive and just housing market where housing is a fundamental right accessible to all, regardless of income.
Varied Attitudes Toward Homeownership
Among low-income renters, a striking 57% express a desire to own a home someday. When contemplating a home purchase, 45% of renters with annual household incomes of $50,000 or less note that they are likely to purchase a residential property within the next 3 to 10 years. However, 32% hold the belief that they may never be able to buy a property, underlining the persistent affordability challenges in the current landscape. Furthermore, over one-third of low-income renters have resigned themselves to the notion that homeownership may elude them (39%). This sentiment is particularly prevalent among older renters, with 65% of those aged 66 and above and 59% of those aged 51 to 65 sharing this perspective.
Conversely, younger renters, aged 18 to 34, retain a certain level of optimism regarding their prospects for future homeownership, with 40% expressing optimism in their ability to purchase a home. Nevertheless, 29% of younger renters concede that their optimism is gradually waning. This revelation underscores the imperative need for action to confront the housing crisis, as the dream of homeownership slips further from the reach of low-income renters.
The Upshot
In conclusion, the information presented here highlights the significant political implications of the housing crisis among low-income renters. This crisis is not merely a matter of political expediency; it represents a moral and societal imperative. The potential political consequences are twofold: short-term and long-term. In the short term, low-income renters are likely to demand swift and meaningful action to address their pressing needs. Their urgency for affordable housing has become a critical issue that politicians at all levels of government must grapple with as they seek the support of these voters.
In the long term, the political implications are equally significant. If the housing crisis persists, it threatens to deepen societal divides and exacerbate inequalities, leading to long-term discontent among low-income renters. It undermines their financial security, mental health, and overall quality of life. Over time, this discontent could crystallize into a mobilized political force advocating for comprehensive solutions to rectify the issue. The longer the crisis persists, the more intense this advocacy is likely to become.
The housing crisis among low-income renters is not just a challenge to be managed; it’s a call to action. It’s a test of our commitment to equity and the welfare of some of our most vulnerable citizens. We must listen to this call and work towards a more just and inclusive society, where access to safe and affordable housing is recognized as a human right that transcends income levels. The political landscape is shifting, and addressing the housing crisis is both a moral imperative and a political necessity for a better and fairer future.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,500 Canadian adults from September 22 to 28, 2023. The current results focus on 631 low-income renters (i.e., household income of $50,000 or less). A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.90%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
