Daily #elxn44 Tracking: September 17

In the final days of the 2021 Canadian general election, our team is tracking public opinion and intentions about the election daily.

Each evening from Wednesday, September 15 to Saturday, September 18, we will be releasing the results of a three-day rolling poll of about 1,500 eligible voters who say they will definitely be voting or have already voted in the election. Each day about 500 interviews are conducted online.


  • The race has tightened again with the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied nationally. The Liberals are ahead by 5 in Ontario and 11 in Quebec.
  • 52% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote say it’s definitely time for a change of government whereas 22% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office – only a one-point change from yesterday.
  • NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+18), while Mr. Trudeau is -1, Mr. O’Toole is -8, and Ms. Paul is -23.
  • 29% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote. 4% of non-voters are entirely undecided.
  • 45% think the Liberals are going to win while 29% think the Conservatives will win. That’s a slight change from yesterday.

With three days to go, the race remains tight nationally but the Liberals remain well-positioned to win the most seats.


The survey was conducted online with 1,333 Canadian adults eligible to vote who say they will definitely vote or have already voted from September 15 to 17, 2021.  Each day a random sample of about 500 panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.7%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/


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