Daily #elxn44 Tracking: September 18

In the final days of the 2021 Canadian general election, our team is tracking public opinion and intentions about the election daily.

Each evening from Wednesday, September 15 to Saturday, September 18, we will be releasing the results of a three-day rolling poll of about 1,500 eligible voters who say they will definitely be voting or have already voted in the election. Each day about 400 interviews are conducted online.


  • The race remains very close nationally with the Liberals and Conservatives separated by a single point (32% to 31%). The NDP is at 21% unchanged for the past 3 days. The People’s Party is up to 6% while the Greens are at 2%.
  • Regionally, the NDP and Conservatives are tied in BC, the CPC is ahead in the Prairies, and the Liberals have a 7-point lead in Ontario, a 4-point lead in Quebec (the gap between the BQ and LPC has closed over the past few days), and a 27-point lead in Atlantic Canada.
  • 49% of those who have voted or definitely plan to vote say it’s definitely time for a change of government (down 3) whereas 24% say it’s definitely best to keep the Liberals in office -a 2 point increase from yesterday.
  • NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has the most favourable image (+20), while Mr. Trudeau is +1, Mr. O’Toole is -15, and Ms. Paul is -24. Over the past few days, Mr. O’Toole’s image has become markedly worse. Today 33% have a positive view while 48% have a negative view. More have a negative view of Mr. O’Toole than do of Mr. Trudeau (48% vs. 43%).
  • 25% of those who haven’t voted but have a first preference say they could still change their mind before they vote, down 4 from yesterday. 3% of non-voters are entirely undecided.
  • 45% think the Liberals are going to win while 29% think the Conservatives will win. This is unchanged from yesterday.

Although the horserace is still tight and the regional numbers barely give the Liberals an advantage, the underlying numbers point to a challenging final two days for the Conservative campaign. Mr. O’Toole’s negatives are rising and the desire for change is waning. Watch those two numbers into the final few days.


The survey was conducted online with 1,271 Canadian adults eligible to vote who say they will definitely vote or have already voted from September 16 to 18, 2021.  Each day a random sample of about 400 panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.

The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

The survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.

Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here:  https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/


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