In recent years we have seen distrust with institutions in Canada grow, a fraying sense of community between neighbors and a bit of an existential crisis among Canadians about what brings us together as, Canadians. But then Janaury 2025 came with a flurry of announcements from the United States that had us re-examining what it means to be Canadian.
Taking an interest in the idea of Canadian identity for some time, I asked some questions earlier in January (in field Janaury 22nd to 26th). Days later there were announcements of tariffs and the 51st state prompting many to question what it really does mean to be Canadian.
This release includes data from two waves of research that allowed us to measure, in real time, the impacts of these announcements on our collective identity. What we captured are big shifts in what makes us Canadian.
Janaury data is from an online survey fielded with n=2,205 gen pop adults in Canada from Janaury 22nd to 26th) and February data is from an online survey fielded with n=2,205 gen pop adults in Canada from February 5th to 11th).
Do we have an identity?
Perhaps the biggest shift we measured (and remember this shift is over a ten-day period) is the number of Canadians saying that there really is a Canadian identity. A few weeks ago in January 69% of Canadians said ‘right now, there is a strong Canadian identity’, including 30% who strongly agreed.
In just 10 days, the number surged to 79% in our latest survey. Also important to note- the surge is concentrated among those who ‘strongly agree’ meaning Canadians haven’t just changed their minds on this a little. Now 40% strongly agree with this statement. Perceptions have shifted a lot.
What makes us Canadian?
In their own words, Canadians believe our attitude is a defining feature of our identity. Asked as an open-end question, 17% say being polite and kind is a defining feature of Canadian identity, 15% say it’s our respect for diversity and inclusion. These features of our identity have remained consistent- before and after announcements south of the border.
What has increased however are feelings about togetherness and pride. Now, 10% include unity and community support in their definition of what it means to be Canadian- a notable 5-point increase from days before. There has also been a notable surge in national pride. Canadians are feeling more patriotic and they feel this from their neighbours too.
A stronger Canadian identity
Canadians truly are recognizing and feeling this surge in a uniting identity. In Janaury 29% of Canadians said our Canadian identity was getting stronger, 27% said there has been no change in the last couple of years, 38% said it was getting worse.
Today, the trend has shifted. Now 42% say our identity has gotten stronger, up 13 points in 10 days.
If we ask Canadians what’s driving this, a quarter say it’s directly related to what’s happening south of the border.
Back in January we also asked Canadians to evaluate the strength of different dimensions of our Canadian identity. How strong is our sense of community? Shared values? Strong democracy? Social services? Public institutions.
For each dimension, we saw a considerable increased in strength between Janaury to February.
Sense of community rose 9 points (from 54% to 63%), and strength of shared values rose 8 points (from 53% to 61%). Significantly more Canadians also believe we have a strong democracy, social services and public institutions. All around there is a swell of support for what it means to be Canadian and the institutions that make us Canadian- given the short time period and previous trends we have seen these are significant jumps.
While the jump is less than other dimensions- more Canadians also feel more connected to our sense of collective identity. At the end of Janaury, 80% of Canadians said they feel connected to a greater Canadian identity. Today this is at 84%- again a big shift in those who strongly agree with the statement.
UPSHOT
My colleagues have explored what this surge means for Canadians as consumers, but there are plenty more consequences for this surge in pride and a reconnection with a collective identity. As just one example, those who feel connected to a greater Canadian identity are far more likely to vote than their peers who don’t feel any sense of connection. A connection among those around us means we are more likely to believe in and participate in our democracy. A sense of collective identity can have positive impacts on us as individuals, but also on our communities as we have a stronger sense of duty and connection to our neighbours.
We will continue tracking our sense of identity as our relationship with the United States will undoubtedly evolve, and understand if the surge we experienced remains stable or continues to evolve as well.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadians residents from February 5 – 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.78%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ this new environment, that difference is more important than ever.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Part four of our series on Canada’s housing landscape focuses alternative housing solutions, including non-profit and co-op housing. This study surveyed 6,000 Canadian adults (18+) between September 26 and October 9, 2024, in partnership with the Co-op Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
This report highlights growing interest in non-profit and co-op housing as affordability challenges and the desire to have a stable place to live push Canadians toward considering alternatives to renting or owning. With the demand for alternative solutions rising, strong public support exists for government action to expand these housing options, signaling a shift beyond the private market.
Top Insights
Changing Perceptions: After learning more about non-profit and co-op housing, 73% see non-profit and co-op housing as a viable solution, citing affordability (57%), community benefits (46%), and long-term stability (45%).
High Demand, Low Supply: 60% believe there isn’t enough non-profit and co-op housing in their communities, and 61% say increasing availability should be a top priority.
Call for Government Action: 54% support tying federal funding to housing development, while 53% back direct government investment in new non-profit and co-op housing.
Exploring Alternative Housing Options
Nearly half (46%) of Canadians who do not currently own a home but aspire to do so indicate that they have considered alternative housing options in the past year. Interest is highest among younger Canadians aged 18-29 (50%) and 30-45 (51%), as well as those living in urban areas (50%). Among those exploring alternatives, 1 in 4 note that they have considered non-profit and co-op housing (24%).
This growing interest reflects a shift in attitudes toward homeownership, particularly among younger and urban Canadians, recognizing that housing needs can be met in a variety of ways. Non-profit and co-op housing provide stable, permanent places to live, which is the most cited reason for wanting to own a home (56%).
Strong Support for the Non-Profit and Co-op Models Exist
While 78% of Canadians are familiar with the concept of non-profit and co-op housing, 64% admit to lacking a detailed understanding of how these housing models operate.
After learning more, 73% see these models as viable solutions to the housing crisis. Supporters highlight several key benefits, including affordable housing options for low- and middle-income individuals (57%), fostering community and shared responsibility (46%), and promoting long-term stability (45%). Notably, 43% believe it reduces the influence of corporate landlords and limits real estate speculation, highlighting its potential as a tool for creating a fairer housing market.
Among aspiring homeowners, the role of education becomes even clearer. A third (32%) say they would be more interested in non-profit and co-op housing if they had more information, and 41% express openness to non-profit and co-op housing while exploring other alternatives. Only a small minority (13%) feel that additional information would not impact their interest.
Canadians Call for Increased Availability of Non-Profit and Co-op Housing
60% of Canadians feel there are not enough non-profit and co-op housing options available in their communities. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among residents in Quebec (68%), British Columbia (61%), and Atlantic Canada (60%), highlighting the perceived scarcity of these housing solutions across the country.
Reflecting this concern, 61% of Canadians believe increasing the number of non-profit and co-op homes should be a high priority. This view is especially strong among Liberal Party of Canada (67%) and NDP (70%) supporters, along with 55% of Conservative Party of Canada voters. The support highlights a growing recognition of the urgent need for more affordable and accessible housing options nationwide.
Canadians See Non-Profit and Co-op Housing as Part of the Solution and Call for Government Action
While 34% of Canadians believe non-profit and co-op housing should be a primary focus in providing affordable options, a larger share (43%) think it should complement other market-based solutions. Only 10% see it as an unviable option for most people, indicating broad recognition of its role in addressing housing challenges.
Public opinion suggests a strong desire for government action to expand non-profit and co-op housing, with a focus on strategic funding and policy support. Over half (54%) want federal funding tied to provincial and municipal housing commitments, while 53% back direct government investment in new non-profit and co-op housing developments. Prioritizing public land (50%) and offering provincial loans and grants (48%) are seen as key strategies to increase this type of supply, while another 48% believe the federal government should empower non-profits and co-ops to purchase private rental properties. The broad support reflects a growing belief that market-driven solutions alone won’t resolve the housing crisis, and that government-led initiatives will be essential to scaling up non-profit and co-op housing across Canada.
The Upshot
As housing affordability remains a pressing concern in Canada, a growing interest in non-profit and co-op housing signals a shift in how Canadians think about homeownership. Overall, these findings highlight an urgent need for action.
With strong public support for expanding non-profit and co-op housing, governments must invest in solutions, from tying federal funding to housing commitments to making public land available for non-profit and co-op developments. Market-driven solutions alone won’t solve the crisis – proactive, government-backed initiatives are essential to ensuring more Canadians have stable, affordable housing through non-profit and co-op options. Greater awareness and understanding of the non-profit and co-op housing models should underpin these efforts. This presents a clear opportunity for policymakers, housing advocates, and community organizations to work together, to educate the public on these models by bringing them to life through dedicated investment and initiatives.
The path forward is clear: Canadians are open to solutions beyond the traditional housing market, but they need better access, stronger government action and more information to make non-profit and co-op housing a viable reality. With rising demand and widespread support for policy-driven expansion, this presents an opportunity to rethink how housing is built, funded, and sustained in Canada. By bridging the funding, supply and awareness gap, long-term affordability can be provided through the growth of non-profit and co-op housing. This can play an important role in creating a more stable and equitable housing future for Canadians. . This can play an important role in creating a more stable and equitable housing future for Canadians.
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 6,000 Canadian adults from September 26 to October 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.27%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada).
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ this new environment, that difference is more important than ever.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
A growing share of Canadians say they trust the Liberals most to handle the economy as the United States continues to threaten tariffs, a new The Logic poll by Abacus Data suggests. The shift coincides with former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney’s sizable lead in the race to take the helm of the party.
From February 5 to 11, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 3,000 adults.
For this survey, we did something a bit different when it comes to our assessment of vote intention. We used an experimental randomized split sample approach and asked a random third of our sample one of three ballot questions. All of the other questions in our tracking were asked in the usual way.
We find that the horserace continues to tighten. At the same time, we see an increase in those open to voting Liberal and a decrease in the Conservative accessible voter pool. Those believing the Liberals deserve to be re-elected is up as are negative impressions of Pierre Poilievre.
Vote Intention: Conservative lead drops as Liberals gain 7 points in a month.
If an election were held today, 46% of committed voters would cast a ballot for the Conservatives, 27% would vote Liberal, and 15% would support the NDP. The Bloc Québécois sits at 7% nationally, while the Greens are at 3% and the People’s Party at 2%. Since our last survey two weeks ago, the Conservatives are up 3, the Liberals up 5 while the NDP is down 3.
We doubled checked and ran another survey
Given how these results differ from some recent polls, we conducted a rapid survey with our core political questions from February 11 to 12, 2025 with an entirely new sample to see whether this survey was an outlier or different than what we would find if we did another survey. The results of that survey are all within the margin of error of the earlier survey. It finds the Conservatives with 45%, the Liberals at 25%, and the NDP at 17%.
Now back to the larger survey conducted from February 5 to 11:
Among those most certain to vote, the Conservative advantage grows slightly, although not as much as it has in the past suggesting that Liberal voters are becoming more engaged and enthusiastic about voting. Today, the Conservatives have 48% among the most likely voters compared with 26% for the Liberals. The NDP are at 15%.
Regionally, the Conservative vote share is down in Atlantic while holding fairly steady in BC and Ontario. In Quebec, we have the BQ at 34%, the Conservatives at 29%, and the Liberals at 28%. Note, due to the split sample approach, the regional sample sizes are much smaller.
When we combine B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada and look at the trend over time, we find the Liberal share in those provinces rising substantially over the past month.
Today, 30% would vote Liberal in those provinces up from 22% in mid-Jauary compared while 46% in those provinces would vote Conservative. This is the highest Liberal vote share in those provinces since we started tracking these three provinces combined a year ago.
When we compare current vote intention with past recalled vote (in 2021), we find that more than 89% of those who voted Conservative in 2021 say they will vote Conservative again. That is still a very high retention rate. In contrast, only 60% of past Liberal and NDP supporters say they would vote for their respective parties today (although the Liberals are doing better at bringing home past supporters than a month ago when it was 50%). The NDP is losing about equal shares of its past support to the Conservatives and Liberals, while 15% of past Liberal supporters say they would vote Conservative today.
The retention of past Conservative vote and the continued attraction of past Liberal and NDP voters is why we continue to see the Conservatives still well ahead of the other parties.
Carney vs. Freeland: Who performs best?
To assess the potential impact of either Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland becoming Liberal leader, we asked the other two thirds of our sample how they would vote with their and the other party leaders named in the ballot question (our usual ballot question does not include party leader names).
We think this is a more effective way of testing the potential effect of the leadership change than asking a similar question later in the survey because it ensures the respondent is asked the question cold, without having been asked how they would vote in another scenario.
This approach finds Mark Carney would perform substantially better than Chrystia Freeland.
When Mark Carney is named as Liberal leader and voters are asked how they would vote in a spring election, 45% would vote Conservative, 28% Liberal and 12% NDP. When Freeland is the leader, the Conservative lead is much larger, with the Conservatives at 45% and the Liberals at 21%. The NDP does much better with Freeland as leader at 20%.
This exercise suggests that the Conservative vote at the moment is resilient to whoever is leader of the Liberals, but that the NDP is far more likely to lose support with Carney rather than Freeland as leader.
Learn about the game-changing tool from the Abacus Data team that makes it possible to estimate polling results to the riding level to improve advocacy and government relations.
Other Core Measures
Beyond vote intention, we also have the benefit of seeing whether our measures are shifting. Often times, it is these measures that are leading indicators of a future shift in vote intention.
In the case of the direction of country, we see no change in the overall mood of the country. 24% think the country is headed in the right direction, marginally higher than two weeks ago.
The federal government’s approval rating has also improved. Today 27% of Canadians approve while 56% disapprove. Disapproval is down 8 points since mid January and is lower than at any point in 2024.
Impressions of Justin Trudeau are also marginally improved. 23% have a positive impression of the Prime Minister compared with 58% who have a negative view for a net favourable of -35.
Perceptions of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre have become more negative. Those with a negative impression of Pierre Poilievre have reached a new high in our tracking with 42% have a negative view compared with 39% who have a positive view. Positive impressions are fairly static but his negatives are 6-points higher than they were at the end of 2024.
To reinforce how important leader impressions are to vote intention, 85% of those with a positive impression of Pierre Poilievre say they will vote Conservative whereas only 5% of those with a negative impression say they will vote Conservative.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s image continues to be more negative than in the past. 29% hold a positive impression, while 40% have a negative view for a net score of -11.
Meanwhile, Canadians’ impressions of Donald Trump remain decisively negative and have become more negative since the tariff threats and his musings about Canada becoming the 51st state. Almost 7 in 10 Canadians have a negative opinion of him, while 18% view him positively. President Trump’s negatives have increased 11-points since early December.
Impressions of Trump are almost entirely negative among Liberal (84%) and NDP (91%) supporters. But among Conservative supporters, 31% have a positive impression of Trump, 17% neutral, and 48% negative.
Desire for Change Softens
One of the bigger shifts we see is in those who think the Liberals deserve to be re-elected. Today, 19% say the Liberals deserve another mandate, up 8 points since mid-January and up 3 since our last wave. In contrast, 50% continue to say they want a change in government and feel there is a good alternative. That has stablized after a drop over the past few months.
Among those who want change and feel there’s a good alternative, 62% would vote Conservative, 15% NDP, and 6% Liberal. 7% are undecided.
Among those who want change but don’t think there’s a good alternative, 23% would vote Conservative, 23% Liberal, 12% NDP, and 11% BQ. 25% are undecided.
Shift in Accessible Voter Pools
Perhaps the biggest shift in our tracking comes when we ask people whether they would consider voting for each federal party.
Today, 50% of Canadians would consider voting Conservative, down 1 since last wave and down 5 since mid-January. In contrast, the Liberal accessible voter pool is up 4 in two weeks and has risen 10 points since mid-January. 39% are open to voting NDP and 28% are open to voting Green. In Quebec, the BQ’s accessible voter pool is down 5 points since late January.
Who is going to win the next election?
About half of Canadians continue to believe the Conservatives are going to win the next election but it is down 10-points since mid-January. In contrast, 20% think the Liberals are going to win, up 3 from last wave and up 10 since mid-January.
The Issues: Donald Trump is now the #2 Issue in Canada
Finally, we see a big change in the top issues that voters say matter to them. The cost of living remains in the top spot (62%) but it is down 4 points from two weeks ago. Donald Trump and his administration has jumped 16-points into second with 42% saying it is one of their top three issues. Healthcare, housing and the economy roundout the top four.
When we ask people who selected an issue in their top 3 which party they feel is best able to handle that issue, the Conservatives have big leads on immigration, crime, the economy, the cost of living, job security and unemployment, and housing. They are tied with the Liberals and NDP on healthcare.
The Liberals have a 9-point among those who say Trump and his administration is a top issue – an issue that has grown in salience over the past few weeks. The Liberals also lead the two other main national parties on climate change.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “There is clear evidence in our polling that the opinion environment in Canada is shifting. While the cost of living remains in focus for most people, Donald Trump has become the second more cited top issue and has come to define so much of what people are talking about. With Justin Trudeau’s exit only a few weeks away and the spectre of more tariffs possibility coming, Canadians are increasingly asking themselves which political choice is best able to deal with the impact and consequence of Trump’s threatening posture towards Canada.
However, we do not see a competitive political environment. The Conservatives continue to have a large lead in vote intention and while Pierre Poilievre’s negatives have risen, far more people have a positive impression of him than any other leader. When we ask Canadians about their views towards Mark Carney, he is viewed more favourably than negatively with 34% saying they have a positive view and 17% with a negative one. However, he also remains largely undefined in people’s minds and so there is still a lot we don’t know about how people will react to him once they get to know him better.
But it is clear that the mindset of much of the public has shifted. Older Canadians, especially Baby Boomers, are fully engaged in the drama being created by Donald Trump. Boomers, and those with higher levels of education seem to be shifting their political preferences more than other Canadians at this point. Whether it is because they are paying closer attention to the news, or whether because they feel more threatened by Trump, they are ripe for persuasion by the Liberals.
Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this poll is the weakness of the NDP and Jagmeet Singh. We have consistently measured the NDP in a narrow band between 17% and 20% for the past three years. But only in the last two weeks have we seen their vote share drop to its lowest level in our tracking. And when we include Carney’s name into the mix, their vote drops even further to 12%.
Overall, our read of the opinion landscape still favours the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre. They have managed to hold onto most of their past supporters while still converting a sizeable portion of Liberal and NDP voters. Unless their voter coalition splinters, it will be hard of their opponents to make significant gains beyond what we have measured thus far.”
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 3,000 Canadian adults from February 5 to 11, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.8%, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Consumer behaviour is shaped by a myriad of factors—price, quality, convenience, social proof—but one of the most powerful drivers is emotion.
When people feel strongly about an issue, they often vote with their wallets, rewarding or punishing brands and products in direct response to their views and values. Today, Canadian consumers are in the midst of an emotional, politically charged moment, and this is having a tangible effect on how and where they shop.
At Abacus Data, we’ve been tracking these shifts in sentiment closely. We wanted to understand how Canadians’ feelings about President Donald Trump and his policies translate into concrete actions—and the results are striking. Our latest research points to a rapidly growing desire among Canadians to buy local, and in some cases, to avoid American products entirely. It’s not just talk: 42% of respondents say they will “absolutely do everything” they can to avoid buying products made in the United States or from American companies.
While boycotts or “buy local” movements aren’t new, the current surge reflects a sense of personal conviction that’s animated by real-time political and cultural events. The data tell us that 84% of Canadians surveyed say they have considered buying more Canadian-made products in the past few days alone, while 34% have cancelled a trip to the U.S., and 32% have either cancelled or seriously considered cancelling streaming services owned by American companies. This uptick in conscious consumerism stems from a desire to send a clear message: Canadian shoppers want to support homegrown brands and manufacturers they see as reflecting their values.
Interestingly, many Canadians aren’t always sure which brands are truly Canadian. Our research shows that 67% think Tim Hortons is Canadian, 68% believe Molson remains a Canadian company, 41% believe Boston Pizza is Canadian, and 57% see Dollarama as homegrown. The reality behind corporate ownership and supply chains can be far more complicated.
In the same vein, perceptions about where our food comes from are equally hazy. Forty-two percent think most packaged food in Canadian grocery stores is made in Canada, while 40% believe this is false—showing a genuine knowledge gap and a chance for brands to educate consumers.
This environment poses both challenges and opportunities for marketers. If you’re an American-owned or American-identified brand selling in Canada, you need to think carefully about how you communicate your local connections. Are you sourcing Canadian ingredients? Do you employ Canadians in a meaningful way? Are you contributing to local communities? Transparently sharing these details can help mitigate negative perceptions tied to your U.S. origins.
On the flip side, Canadian brands should seize this moment to highlight their roots, proudly proclaiming how their supply chains, partnerships, and workforce bolster the Canadian economy.
Moreover, the emotional dimension of consumer choice is not something to overlook or minimize. This is where traditional usage and attitudes studies can fall short. Yes, you still need to understand how consumers use your product and how they feel about your brand’s performance. But in times of political upheaval, it’s also critical to grasp the broader societal issues that shape how Canadians perceive you—and how willing they are to support you.
At Abacus Data, we’re increasingly incorporating questions about political identity, cultural values, and current events into our market research. We find it offers richer insights into the emotional and moral underpinnings of purchase decisions, and allows brands to respond with more empathetic, resonant marketing strategies.
Donald Trump has stirred a wave of Canadian nationalism and pride that is rapidly changing the retail and consumer landscape. People want to buy Canadian-made products, they want to reward companies that reflect Canadian values, and they have become more inclined to punish companies they see as tied too closely to the U.S. market or political sphere. Brands would be wise to keep a close eye on this trend, clarify their origins, and adapt their messages to speak to both the head and the heart of Canadian consumers.
Above all, if there’s one key takeaway, it’s that market research must evolve alongside consumer attitudes. Understanding the political and emotional triggers that spark changes in shopping behaviour can be the difference between winning over newly fired-up Canadians or watching them walk away. And in this new environment, that difference is more important than ever.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
From February 4 to 6, 2025, we conducted a representative online survey of 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario. This is our second survey of the campaign in partnership with our media partner The Toronto Star.
Our latest results suggest the Ford PCs remain the clear favourites to be re-elected but has been some notable shifts in other measures.
The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) continue to lead, with 37% support among all eligible voters—a slight dip of two points since late January. The Ontario Liberals hold at 19%, while the New Democrats (NDP) see a modest two-point gain, rising to 17%. The Greens remain at 4%, and 20% of voters remain undecided.
Among committed voters, the PCs stand at 46%, a one-point decline, while the Liberals (24%) and NDP (21%, +2) remain relatively steady. Notably, when looking at likely voters—those who say they are certain to cast a ballot—the PCs gain further ground, rising to 49%, with the Liberals and NDP statistically tied (23% vs. 22%). This suggests that the PCs continue to benefit from an engaged and motivated base, giving them an advantage if voter turnout is low.
Regionally, the PCs maintain their dominance in key battlegrounds. In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA), they sit at 52%, a commanding lead over the Liberals (24%) and the NDP (17%). They also hold the advantage in southwestern Ontario (42%) and eastern Ontario (44%). Toronto proper remains more competitive, with the Liberals 10-points behind the PCs (40% to 30%) and the NDP at 21%.
Looking at demographics, the PCs hold a significant lead among men (50%) but face a more competitive race among women (42% PC, 24% Liberal, 24% NDP). Age dynamics reveal a clear generational divide: among voters aged 18-29, the NDP is stronger and statistically tied with the PCs (31%), while the PCs dominate among those over 45. The Liberals, meanwhile, draw relatively even support across all age groups but fail to break through in any one segment.
Party Leader Impressions & Best Premier
Premier Doug Ford’s net impression rating has declined slightly, with 37% of Ontarians holding a positive view of him (down four points), while 39% view him negatively (up two points). His net approval now sits at -2. Despite this, he remains the most recognized leader in the province, while his rivals continue to struggle with visibility.
Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie’s negatives have ticked up (now at 35%, up one point), though more Ontarians are now aware of her, with fewer respondents saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion. NDP leader Marit Stiles sees a slight improvement, with her net impression rising to +1 as more voters become familiar with her. Green leader Mike Schreiner’s net impression has declined slightly (-3), though he remains the most neutral leader in the eyes of the public.
Doug Ford remains well ahead of the other party leaders who preferred Premier, although the gap has closed slightly over the last two weeks.
At the same time, we also see the provincial government’s approval rating dropping over the past two weeks.
The Issues
The issues voters want to see discussed during the campaign have not changed at all since our first survey. Affordability, housing, and healthcare dominate with Trump’s tarrifs and the economy rounding out the top 5.
When it comes to the issues that matter most, the Progressive Conservatives continue to hold the advantage. They lead on every major policy issue, but their most significant strengths are on economic management and dealing with the impact of Donald Trump’s tariffs (35-point lead over the Liberals).
Ford’s PCs are seen as the best party to handle economic growth and job creation (38%) and managing the cost of living (33%). In contrast, only 18% believe the Liberals would be better at handling affordability, while 19% prefer the NDP. Even on healthcare and education—issues traditionally seen as opposition strengths—the PCs hold narrow leads, though these files remain more competitive.
Hot Mic: Will Ford’s addmission of supporting Trump hurt?
Doug Ford’s hot mic moment expressing support for Donald Trump appears to have little immediate impact on his core supporters—40% of PC voters say it makes them more likely to support him, while 51% say it has no impact. Only 9% of PC supporters (and 3% of the electorate) say they are less likely to vote PC.
For NDP and Liberal supporters, the reaction is predictably negative, with about 60% saying it makes them less likely to vote for Ford.
The key question is whether this becomes a lasting liability, particularly with the Ontario Liberals preparing to run attack ads highlighting the comments. Telling voters that Ford praised Trump is one thing—showing them footage of him saying it is another entirely. Our next survey will reveal whether this moment fades or sticks, potentially shifting undecided voters and soft PC supporters.
Desire for Change Edging Up
As often happens over the course of an election campaign, we are seeing the number of people who definitely want to see a change in government rising.
The latest survey finds that 52% of Ontarians say it is “definitely time for a change in government,” a four-point increase since late January. However, historical comparisons suggest that this figure, while notable, does not yet indicate the PCs are in serious trouble.
Additionally, only 21% say Ford and the PCs “should definitely be re-elected,” while 16% say they would prefer a change but don’t see it as a priority. This suggests that while there is a growing appetite for change, the opposition has yet to consolidate enough support to pose a serious electoral threat.
Standing up to a Bully or Hosting a Party?
A series of lighter questions in the survey offer insight into how Ontarians perceive their leaders beyond traditional policy metrics. Ford is seen as the best leader to host a party (35%), sit beside on a long flight (29%), and—perhaps most importantly—stand up to a bully (50%). These attributes reflect a perception of Ford as a strong, relatable, and resilient figure, qualities that have helped solidify his political brand.
In contrast there is far more uncertainty around who would best put out a kitchen fire or give advice on investing money suggesting that many Ontarians don’t think Ford would be good at those but don’t know enough about the opposition leaders say if they would be better. This question underscores the familiarity advantage that Doug Ford has over the other party leaders.
UPSHOT
According to David Coletto: “As Ontario inches closer to an election, the question remains: what will define the campaign? For now, the immediate economic threat posed by Trump’s tariffs appears to have eased, opening the door for other issues to take center stage. If the election remains focused on affordability and economic management, Ford and the PCs will be well-positioned to win. However, if healthcare, education, or broader questions of government competence become dominant themes, the race could tighten.
In the period they have left, either Bonnie Crombie or Marit Stiles have to do a few things to have a shot at winning this election. They have to increase the desire for change and consolidate those change voters around their party. Right now, neither of those two things are happening.
There may not be enough time or the right set of issues to achieve this.”
METHODOLOGY
The survey was conducted with 2,000 eligible voters in Ontario from February 4 to 6, 2025.
A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
In a previous column for The Hub, I explored the “core” Liberal Party base, estimating it to be surprisingly small (only 7 percent of the electorate), when we strip away more casual or wavering supporters. Now, inspired by the demographic segmentation tactics once used by Harper’s Conservatives—who gave their voter personas names like “Dougie”—the hardworking, blue-collar white guy who was a big sports fan, drank beer and Timmy’s coffee, and loved roaming around his local Home Depot—I wanted to explore what typical Liberal voter personas looks like today.
The team at The Hub asked if I could create similar fictional but data-driven snapshots of today’s typical Liberal Party supporter. Drawing on recent Abacus Data surveys and using regression modeling, I built three “personas” that I think capture the type of people still leaning Liberal, even after the party’s appeal has greatly narrowed over the past year. Each persona illustrates a real slice of the Grit voter coalition, highlighting distinct life circumstances and policy priorities that bring them under the red tent.
I’ve spent countless hours in focus groups and analyzing polling data, and one thing stands out every time: language matters.
If we’re discussing economic issues, we need to connect them to everyday realities—like paying rent and putting food on the table—rather than relying on abstract buzzwords.
My research consistently shows that people respond to hearing about bigger paycheques, more jobs, and straightforward buying and selling with other countries. These are tangible ideas tied to everyday life, and they carry more weight than familiar yet impersonal terms like “growth” and “trade.” Our job is to reflect their needs—plain and simple.
That’s why I recommend replacing “profitability” with “affordability.” It instantly shifts the focus from a corporation’s bottom line to the cost pressures families face every day.
Similarly, “competitiveness” may be a well-worn term in policy circles, but folks are more responsive when we talk about the “cost of making things.”
This suggests we’re paying attention to the factors that drive up prices on basic goods.
And when we say “me”, “industry”, or “economy”, we risk sounding self-centred, especially if we’re speaking on behalf of broader interests.
People want to know you’re working for Canadian workers and consumers, not just your own bottom line or political gain.
In this crazy moment of disruption and change, clarity is everything.
Your job as communicators and leaders – whether in politics, business, or advocacy—is to connect abstract concepts to the real-world implications people feel in their bank accounts.
Timely and high-quality research helps reveal what resonates and identifies the unmet need of your audience: we need to talk about bigger paycheques, lower costs, and a fair shot at a decent life. This isn’t about dumbing things down; it’s about meeting people where they are.
By framing economic policy in language that centres on everyday concerns, we make it more accessible and demonstrate that we understand what truly matters to the public.
And here’s where our product offering at Abacus Data—Maximum Impact Words—comes into play.
It’s a toolkit designed to identify the precise language that resonates with everyday Canadian and specific segments and audiences.
By analyzing how people respond to various terms and phrases, we ensure every message you craft is driven by data, rooted in real-world anxieties, and primed for genuine impact. This approach transforms buzzwords and what you think works, into powerful actual connectors.
Stay tuned for some fascinating research I did that digs into this.
In the meantime, when you have a high-stakes moment, or the coming launch of a major new strategy, remember: if your story doesn’t speak to everyday worries, it might not stick. Effective communication is grounded in words that reflect tangible outcomes for families, communities, and workers.
We’re not just talking semantics here; we’re talking about trust. When people hear bigger paycheques instead of growth, or the cost of making things instead of competitiveness, they see their own struggles and aspirations reflected back.
That’s how you build credibility and influence. Language choices can galvanize support—or leave people cold. It’s our responsibility to pick the right words and remind our audiences that we’re in their corner.
Finally, never forget that good decisions and effective communication require a solid foundation of research and analysis. By continually testing messages and gathering real-world feedback, we ensure our words remain grounded in what people truly care about—and that’s how we make a real difference.
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
An Abacus Data poll from Jan. 28 reflected a five-point gain for the Liberals. The latest results placed the Conservatives at 43 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent, and the Greens at five per cent. In contrast, on Jan. 14, the Conservatives polled at 46 per cent, the Liberals at 20 per cent, the NDP at 19 per cent, and the Greens at four per cent.
In part three of our series examining the current state of housing in Canada, we focus our attention on homelessness. This study, which engaged 6,000 Canadian adults (aged 18 and older) and was conducted between September 26 and October 9, 2024, in partnership with the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada), and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
This report highlights the growing urgency of homelessness in Canada, which has emerged as a top concern among Canadians, surpassing issues like crime, immigration, and climate change. The findings highlight the increasing visibility of homelessness, and the widespread recognition that it is driven largely by systemic challenges, such as unaffordable housing. As Canadians call for action, there is strong support for government intervention, with many viewing access to shelter as a fundamental right for all Canadians.
Top Insights
Homelessness as a Top Concern: 23% of Canadians rank homelessness as one of the top three national issues, placing it ahead of crime, immigration, and climate change.
Increasing Visibility: 67% of Canadians report seeing homelessness in their communities, with higher visibility in urban areas and provinces like Ontario and British Columbia.
Growing Fear of Housing Insecurity: 57% of Canadians worry about losing their home, with concerns particularly high among younger Canadians and those in lower-income brackets.
Support for Government Action: 67% of Canadians agree that homelessness is a housing issue that requires immediate government intervention, emphasizing the need for coordinated, multi-level government efforts.
Homelessness as a Top Concern in Canada
Homelessness has become one of the top concerns for Canadians, with 23% ranking it as one of the top three issues the country faces, making it the fifth most significant issue overall. This places it ahead of concerns like crime and public safety (17%), immigration (17%), and climate change (13%), highlighting the urgency of addressing this crisis.
The issue is especially pressing in certain provinces, with 26% of Ontarians and 24% of British Columbians identifying homelessness as a primary concern. Urban residents are also more likely to prioritize homelessness, with 27% in cities ranking it above concerns like the economy (24%).
The Growing Visibility of Homelessness Across Canada
67% of Canadians indicate that homelessness is prevalent within their communities., with urban residents and those in British Columbia and Ontario more likely to perceive it as “very” prevalent. In British Columbia, 35% of residents see it as a highly visible problem, while 32% of urban dwellers and 28% of Ontarians share similar views. As the issue becomes more noticeable, it signals a broader recognition of homelessness as a pressing concern in Canada.
Furthermore, over half of Canadians (54%) have observed a rise in homelessness over the past year in their community, with British Columbia (60%) and Ontario (57%) residents more likely to have observed an increase in homelessness. This rise in visibility is noted across the political spectrum, with both Conservative (59%) and NDP (60%) supporters at the federal level acknowledging the increase, although Liberal supporters are less likely to recognize this rise, with only 48% noting the trend.
Fears of Homelessness and Housing Insecurity
Concerns about homelessness in Canada go beyond its rising prevalence in communities, highlighting broader fears related to the housing crisis, inflation, and the cost of living – 57% of Canadians worry about losing their home or rental if their financial situation were to change. This concern is especially pronounced among younger Canadians, with 65% of those aged 18-29 and 71% of those aged 30-44 expressing fear. Lower-income individuals (65%) and residents of British Columbia (63%) and Ontario (61%) are also most concerned, reflecting the impact of high housing costs in these regions.
The fear of displacement extends beyond losing ones current home or rental unit, with one in five Canadians worried about experiencing homelessness if their financial situation worsens. This concern is especially high among younger middle-aged groups (25% of those aged 30-44) and those earning less than $50,000 (29%). These findings emphasize the growing insecurity around housing, underlining the need for stronger support systems to prevent homelessness and protect vulnerable Canadians.
These fears may be intensified by the reality that many Canadians have personal connections to homelessness. 12% report having experienced homelessness themselves, while 30% say they know someone who has faced it.
Compassion and Complexity: Understanding the Causes of Homelessness in Canada
The majority of Canadians express compassion for those experiencing homelessness, with 59% showing concern and 56% feeling sympathy. Only 13% have negative feelings, indicating that most Canadians view homelessness with empathy rather than judgment and negativity.
Canadians are increasingly acknowledging that homelessness is primarily a housing issue, driven by systemic challenges. In fact, 61% of Canadians believe homelessness is mainly caused by systemic issues such as unaffordable housing or job loss. This growing awareness emphasizes that homelessness is fundamentally a housing problem, highlighting the urgent need for solutions focused on expanding affordable housing and addressing the housing crisis, with many Canadians believing that tackling the housing crisis is key to resolving homelessness.
Addressing Homelessness: A National Priority and a Human Right
Finding viable solutions to homelessness has become a high priority for many Canadians, with 68% considering it a top issue that requires immediate attention. While NDP (76%) and Liberal Party of Canada (71%) supporters are particularly focused on addressing homelessness, a majority of Conservative supporters (62%) also recognize its urgency. This growing consensus highlights the recognition that homelessness is a critical social issue demanding immediate action.
The growing perception that homelessness is a matter of basic human rights is evident, with 63% of Canadians who prioritize solutions believing that access to shelter and security should be guaranteed. Additionally, 62% see it as an escalating problem requiring immediate action, and 59% believe that reducing homelessness will enhance overall community well-being. This shift highlights a deepening understanding that addressing homelessness not only benefits individuals but also strengthens society as a whole.
Furthermore, a significant 83% of Canadians agree that everyone deserves a place to call home, with 78% viewing housing as a basic human right. In contrast, only 30% believe that the government should not fund others’ housing, reflecting a growing belief that the government has a key role in solving homelessness and ensuring that everyone has access to a safe place to live.
Government Action: A Call for Provincial and Federal Responsibility
A clear majority of Canadians (67%) believe that homelessness is fundamentally a housing issue that requires immediate government intervention. This sentiment is especially strong among NDP supporters (73%), while a significant portion of Conservative Party of Canada (58%) and Liberal Party of Canada (59%) supporters also emphasize the importance of government action. This widespread consensus highlights the expectation that the government must step in to address the homelessness crisis.
Furthermore, Canadians overwhelmingly agree that tackling homelessness is a shared responsibility across various levels of government. 61% of Canadians hold the provincial government accountable, 60% believe the federal government must play a critical role, and 56% see municipal governments as responsible for addressing this issue. This broad recognition underscores the need for a coordinated, multi-level government response to homelessness, with both provincial and federal governments playing central roles in finding effective solutions.
Finding a Solution: Optimism and Support for Action on Homelessness
A large majority of Canadians (79%) are optimistic about the possibility of reducing homelessness, with 10% believing it can be completely eliminated. Only 13% of Canadians believe that homelessness is so bad that we will never be able to manage it, indicating an optimistic outlook on potential solutions and a belief that meaningful change is possible.
To address homelessness, Canadians emphasize the need for coordinated and comprehensive strategies. A significant 57% support a national plan with specific targets for reducing homelessness across all levels of government, while 52% favor expanding federal programs to help individuals transition into stable housing. Additionally, 42% support providing financial assistance to those at risk of losing their homes. These findings reflect a growing consensus that addressing homelessness requires a mix of immediate intervention and long-term, strategic planning.
The Upshot
Homelessness in Canada has become an urgent issue, increasingly seen as part of the broader housing crisis. Canadians recognize that a lack of affordable housing, high costs, and systemic barriers are the main drivers of homelessness in Canada today. As awareness grows, so does the demand for well-thought, long-term solutions, rather than relying on the use of punitive measures. Most Canadians view access to safe, affordable housing as a basic human right, shifting the focus from temporary measures such as using enforcement to clear encampments to developing sustainable strategies that prioritize stability and support.
Canadians agree that homelessness requires coordinated action from all levels of government, with provinces and the federal government taking the lead. A holistic approach must address both the immediate crisis and long-term structural issues, including expanding affordable housing, providing financial support, and implementing prevention programs to ensure long-term housing stability.
As visibility grows and concern over housing insecurity intensifies, the need for action has never been more urgent. Canada’s approach must go beyond increasing housing supply and focus on addressing the root causes of insecurity. By working together, governments at all levels can create an environment where all Canadians have access to safe, stable housing, moving us closer to resolving homelessness and ensuring a secure future for all. With a coordinated, thoughtful approach, Canada can make meaningful progress in resolving homelessness and building a more secure future for everyone.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 6,000 Canadian adults from September 26 to October 9, 2024. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 1.27%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH), and the Co-operative Housing Federation of Canada (CHF Canada).
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
