David Coletto from the Abacus Data discusses the upcoming Canadian election as the latest survey suggests the Liberals will win a majority with Australian morning show, News Breakfast.
With just days left before Canadians cast their ballots, an election that once seemed destined for a Conservative victory under Pierre Poilievre now stands as an unpredictable contest, with Mark Carney’s Liberals gaining significant momentum. Initially centred around affordability and a widespread desire for change, this campaign has evolved dramatically into a referendum on stability amid global uncertainty.
At the start of the year, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government was deeply unpopular. Just 12% believed he and the Liberals deserved to be re-elected and the Conservatives held a commanding 27-point lead. Canadians were increasingly frustrated with the direction of the country, anxious about economic pressures and disillusioned with their government.
Two pivotal events altered the political landscape. Trudeau’s resignation and Mark Carney’s rise as his replacement coincided with Donald Trump’s provocative return as U.S. President, marked by threats of annexation and punitive trade measures targeting Canada. This shift abruptly changed the election’s narrative from one about domestic dissatisfaction (scarcity) to existential concerns about national security and economic resilience (precarity).
Trudeau’s exit left his party scrambling to hold a rapid leadership election. But the timing of that move may come to be seen as essential in not only the reset in public opinion but also Mark Carney’s almost seamless victory. Although few Canadians had a good sense of who is was, he quickly established himself as an experienced leader required to navigate turbulent times for many people. Carney’s public approval grew steadily from an initial 19% in January to 46% as this campaign ends.
Despite the dominance of Trump-related anxieties, affordability remains a critical issue for nearly half of Canadians. Younger voters are particularly concerned about housing and living costs, while older voters increasingly prioritize healthcare and Canada’s response to Trump’s provocations.
This dual-track issue landscape has reshaped the election’s defining ballot question. Initially, a majority prioritized dealing with Trump. Today, however, a desire for change has become the larger focus to voters. A frame that would normally benefit the Conservatives. And it has, to an extent. But among those who say their vote is primarily about a change in direction, a quarter say they have or will vote Liberal. An indication that Carney has not only protected himself from Trudeau’s legacy but has offered enough voters seeking change, a sufficient dose of it.
For the Conservatives, these developments present considerable challenges. Poilievre’s strategy, initially effective against Trudeau’s deeply unpopular government, has become less relevant as voter anxieties have shifted toward international threats. Additionally, Poilievre faced internal party constraints: about one in five Conservative voters maintain positive views of Trump, complicating his ability to adopt a stronger stance against the American president. Most troublingly for Poilievre, our polling suggested that many Canadians believe, rightly or wrongly, that he would have supported Trump if he could have—a perception that severely undermines his ability to effectively counter Carney on this key issue.
The leaders’ debates further solidified this narrative. Carney narrowly edged Poilievre in public perception, and reinforced on critical attributes like standing up to a bully and navigating through crisis—qualities increasingly valued by voters in uncertain times.
Voter engagement in this election has been notably high, with a projected turnout (my projection) around 71%, reflecting the perceived stakes of this election. Nationally, the Liberals currently hold a slender lead, marking an extraordinary turnaround from their earlier deficits. They maintain solid support in critical battlegrounds, particularly British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec. and Atlantic Canada.
Generational divides continue to shape voter preferences. Younger Canadians, motivated by urgent affordability issues, initially favoured the Conservatives but have moved more toward the Liberals and NDP, while older voters (Baby Boomers) have swung decisively toward Carney’s Liberals, largely driven by security concerns related to Trump.
Several factors underpin the Liberals’ recent advantage. Carney’s personal appeal and perceived economic experience have reassured voters. The collapse of NDP support consolidated progressive voters behind the Liberals. Meanwhile, Conservatives have struggled to expand their base, hindered by perceptions linking them negatively with Trump. At 37%, the Conservative might see their vote share increase with few gains in their seat count.
Despite these challenges, not all is lost for Poilievre and the Conservatives. A persistent desire for change remains strong among 54% of Canadians, providing a potentially potent resource. But with only a few days left, time may be running out to refocus more Canadians back toward domestic change and governance issues. .
Significant uncertainties remain, including late shifts in voter sentiment and internal tensions among voters who like Carney personally but remain reluctant to reward the Liberals with another term. How that tension is ultimately resolved could be the difference in the outcome.
This election underscores how rapidly political landscapes can shift. Initially driven by domestic frustrations, more Canadians are now prioritizing stability and leadership capable of confronting external threats. While Carney currently holds the advantage, the Conservative campaign may still possess potential avenues for reclaiming momentum. Although, as I said, time is certaintly running out.
As we approach election day, Abacus Data’s polling work will continue to try and explain these complex dynamics. Our final poll, released Sunday afternoon, will offer the latest insights into voter intentions a day before Election Day.
Thank you for following this crucial election journey with us. Your engagement and support have been wonderful and have encouraged us to keep exploring and sharing what he learn from the priviledge we have in being able to ask Canadians what they’re thinking and feeling.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
“Weeks before, people were thinking about inflation and cost of living. All of the sudden, they’re forced to think about the very existence of Canada. That shift is just unprecedented and I can’t think of this kind of complete reset in any jurisdiction around the world,” said David Coletto, head of the polling firm Abacus. “Trump has done the near-impossible: shifting a very anti-incumbent environment in 2024 into one where incumbency is more of an advantage. People are now looking for stability, as opposed to revolution.”
Between April 16 and 21, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,920 Canadian adults (18+) to gauge how people are feeling as the federal election nears its end. As the campaign concludes, Canadians are divided—some looking for long-term stability, others demanding immediate relief. This article explores the emotional undercurrents, unmet expectations, and the growing impact of precarity on how voters are making decisions and defining what meaningful progress looks like.
Stability or Relief? What’s Driving the 2025 Vote
As Canadians head into the final days of what is being dubbed as one of the most important elections in recent history, the emotional backdrop is impossible to ignore. A full 60% of Canadians say their vote is driven by a desire for long-term stability and leadership that can help the country weather future uncertainty. In contrast, 20% are looking for immediate relief, prioritizing short-term fixes to the high cost of living and economic pressure. These motivations point to a growing psychological – between those in a precarity mindset, who crave stability and reassurance, and those in a scarcity mindset, who are focused on short-term survival.
This divide is also heavily reflected in party preference. Among voters looking for long-term stability, 47% intend to vote for Mark Carney and the Liberals, seeing the party as a steady hand during turbulent times. Conversely, among those seeking immediate relief, 43% intend to vote for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, drawn to promises of quick action, cost-cutting, and disruption. This reveals a broader emotional split: the Liberals are positioning themselves as the party of calm and competence, while the Conservatives have become the party of control and immediacy.
Feeling Heard? Not Quite.
Despite weeks of campaigning, most Canadians still don’t feel seen or heard. Only 17% believe that the issues that matter most to them and their families have been fully addressed during the campaign. Half (50%) say their concerns were only partially acknowledged, while 16% feel entirely overlooked.
Among those who feel neglected, the most commonly mentioned blind spots are the cost of living and inflation (46%), followed by healthcare (30%), housing affordability (25%), and support for seniors (22%). These are not minor concerns – they’re deeply personal and tied directly to people’s sense of security and control in their lives.
The emotional divide is even more stark when broken down by age. Older Canadians (60+) are more likely to feel the lack of attention on healthcare (43%) and senior support (44%), while younger Canadians (18–44) point to housing (29–33%) as a missing piece of the campaign dialogue. Mental health and education, though mentioned by fewer Canadians overall, are also disproportionately overlooked among younger groups – further signaling a gap between the issues voters live with and the issues the party leaders have focused on during this campaign cycle.
What Would Make a Real Difference?
Canadians are clear on what would show them this election mattered. It’s not just about winning a majority or implementing a platform – it’s about making a tangible, personal difference in people’s lives.
At the top of the list, 39% want to feel financially secure in the long term, while 36% want financial relief in the short term. This duality captures the competing forces of survival and sustainability – a key aspect of the precarity mindset, where Canadians are juggling day-to-day pressures while trying to envision a stable future.
Healthcare access is the next major benchmark (34%), particularly for older Canadians who are more likely to be experiencing strain in the system firsthand. Trust in government also emerges as a key outcome, with 31% saying that being able to trust leaders to act in their best interest is a critical outcome of this election.
Meanwhile, housing remains a defining issue for younger Canadians. Roughly a third of voters aged 18–44 say that the ability to afford a home – or keep the one they have – will determine whether this election made a meaningful difference. In a time when many feel homeownership is slipping further out of reach, this signals a rising emotional pressure point for younger generations.
Delivering a Meaningful Impact
When asked to step back and evaluate what long-term success looks like, Canadians continue to emphasize affordability, access, and protection.
Nearly half (46%) say the government will have made a meaningful difference if it makes life more affordable. Strengthening the healthcare system (31%) and improving housing affordability (30%) round out the top three.
But what’s striking is how many Canadians now tie domestic issues to international pressures. Three in ten (30%) say that protecting Canada’s economy from U.S. tariffs and global trade tensions is a top priority, and nearly the same number (28%) point to strengthening Canada’s independence and global reputation as a meaningful measure of success.
This reflects a broader truth: in a world defined by instability, Canadians want leaders who can deliver local security in the face of global disruption. Whether it’s economic fallout from trade wars or geopolitical tension that affects supply chains and costs, people no longer see global events as abstract. They see them as direct threats to their homes, health, and futures.
Mixed Emotions at the Finish Line
As Canadians head to the polls, they’re not just casting ballots – they’re carrying a complex emotional load shaped by months of political messaging, personal hardship, and long-standing uncertainty. While some are cautiously hopeful, others remain deeply uneasy about what lies ahead.
Nearly 2 in 5 Canadians (38%) say they feel cautiously hopeful, but are waiting to see if anything truly changes. Another third (33%) report feeling worried about what the outcome could mean for their families, finances, and future. Meanwhile, 25% are skeptical, doubting that any meaningful difference will come regardless of the result. Only one in four (24%) describe themselves as optimistic that the next government will deliver real change.
This emotional divide reflects the broader precarity many Canadians are experiencing – where optimism is tempered by doubt, and hope coexists with worry. It’s a reminder that beyond the vote itself, public trust and confidence will need to be earned in the weeks and months that follow. Canadians are looking for action that eases their day-to-day pressures and signals a steadier, more secure future.
The Upshot
As the 2025 election campaign draws to a close, the emotional landscape of the country is clear – and divided. Canadians are heading to the polls not just with political preferences, but with deeply personal hopes and fears. For many, this election is as much about partisanship as it is about finding stability in a world that feels increasingly unpredictable.
A growing number of Canadians, especially those experiencing financial and emotional precarity, are casting their votes with long-term security in mind. Others are driven by the immediate need for relief from the cost-of-living crisis. The fact that only 17% of Canadians feel the issues that matter most to them have been fully addressed during the campaign speaks volumes. People aren’t just looking for promises – they’re looking for proof that someone is listening.
Whether it’s the cost of living, access to housing, quality healthcare, or Canada’s role on the world stage, Canadians are clear about what they expect from this election. Voters aren’t just looking for promises – they’re looking for proof that their lives will get better. Success for the next Prime Minister will hinge on delivering tangible improvements that restore a sense of control and stability. In this moment, it’s not just about policies – it’s about providing reassurance, building resilience, and producing real results.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,920 Canadian adults from April 16 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.24%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
The Logic’s last poll before election day shows Carney and the Liberals well ahead on steering the economy. But the Conservatives remain strong on
With less than a week to go in the campaign, a new poll from Abacus Data finds the Liberals leading by 3 among all committed eligible voters and those who have voted and by 5 among those who are most certain to vote and those who have voted in an advance poll.
This survey was conducted entirely after the two leaders’ debates held last week and interviewed 2,000 Canadians eligible to vote from April 18 to 21, 2025.
Overall, the data suggest that not much has changed over the weekend and following the two debates. Mark Carney remains the most popular federal party leader. The Liberals continue to have the largest pool of accessible voters, and regionally, the Liberals have leads in British Columbia, Ontairo, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The data continues to suggest that the Liberals have a clear advantage and remain the favourites to win the election.
Nationally, the Liberals sit at 40% among all decided voters, with the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP remains in third place at 11%, and the Bloc Québécois is at 6% nationally. Note, this includes both those who have already voted and those who are decided about who they will vote for.
Since last week, the Liberal and NDP vote share is unchanged while the Conservative vote share is down 1 point.
When we look at voters most certain to cast a ballot and those who already have—an indicator that can better approximate actual turnout—the Liberals open up a 5-point lead over the Conservatives with 42% voting Liberal compared to 37% for the Conservatives. The NDP get 10% of the most certain vote group.
Despite the overall narrowing, the regional picture still shows areas of Liberal strength:
British Columbia: The Liberals have opened up a 9-point lead over the Conservatives (42% to 33%) with the NDP at 15%.
Ontario: The Liberals lead the Conservatives by five points, a smaller gap than we have seen over the last two waves.
Quebec: Here, the Liberals stand at 33%, compared to the Bloc’s 30% and the Conservatives’ 26%. This is the smallest gap we’ve seen in Quebec since the campaign began.
Despite a clear desire for change, support for the incumbent Liberals remains remarkably resilient. In our latest data, 55% of Canadians say it’s “definitely time for a change in government”—a high number, but only slightly above the 50% threshold recorded in the final polls before several recent elections, including the 2021 federal contest. At the same time, 23% now say it’s “definitely best” to keep the Liberals in office, matching the highest level recorded during this campaign. This is important context: historically, elections with a similar desire for change—such as the 2021 federal vote or the 2024 Nova Scotia election—have not always resulted in the incumbent being defeated. With that 23% firmly behind the Liberals and much of the rest of the electorate split between opposition options, the appetite for change may not be intense or unified enough to deny the governing Liberals another mandate.
Mark Carney continues to hold the strongest personal brand among the major party leaders. His positive impressions now sit at 46%, while 33% of Canadians view him negatively. Carney performs especially well among older voters and in key battleground regions like Ontario and Atlantic Canada, where his positive numbers exceed 50%. Among Liberal supporters, his image is overwhelmingly positive, but he also finds support among a notable share of NDP voters—suggesting that he’s not only inherited the Liberal base but is also attracting progressive voters looking to stop a Conservative government. It’s also noteworthy that men have a more favourable impression of him than women.
Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers, on the other hand, continue to pose a challenge for his campaign. While 39% of Canadians have a positive impression of him, 46% view him negatively—his highest negative rating since the campaign began. His support remains concentrated in Alberta and among committed Conservative voters, but he struggles with older Canadians, women, and voters in Quebec. In Ontario—a region critical to any path to victory—his negatives are climbing, and he has been unable to chip away at Carney’s regional lead. The gender gap in his appeal is also stark: men are more evenly split, while a clear majority of women view him negatively.
Jagmeet Singh’s image has remained flat throughout much of the campaign. Currently, 32% of Canadians say they have a positive view of him, while 39% are negative. His support is strongest among younger Canadians and core NDP partisans, but he has not been able to broaden his appeal beyond that base. With little movement in his favourability over the past month, Singh appears to be stuck in place.
On the “Preferred Prime Minister” question, Carney leads Poilievre by six points (41% vs. 35%)—a gap that’s narrowed from nine points last week.
As the campaign enters its final days, affordability remains the top issue on Canadians’ minds. Forty-nine percent now rank reducing the cost of living among their top two priorities—a three-point increase from the previous wave and a six-point increase over two weeks. This concern spans all age groups, but is especially prominent among voters aged 30 to 59.
Meanwhile, the salience of dealing with Donald Trump has declined slightly, down one point to 32% and down 4 since two weeks ago. While still a major issue, it no longer dominates the political conversation in the way it did earlier in the campaign. That shift may be giving the Conservatives a bit more room to press their affordability message, but not enough to fundamentally shift the dynamics.
Despite Trump’s slightly diminished salience, the issue continues to be one of the most defining electoral cleavages. Among those who rank dealing with Trump as one of their top two concerns, the Liberals hold a massive 40-point lead over the Conservatives—60% to 20%. No other issue creates this kind of partisan gulf. Even though fewer voters are making their decision based on the Trump factor, those who do are overwhelmingly choosing the Liberals. This helps explain why the Liberals remain competitive even as the focus shifts toward affordability—because the Trump issue is disproportionately salient among older, high-turnout voters.
At the same time, the Conservatives continue to hold a narrow edge among those most focused on affordability. Among voters prioritizing cost of living, 43% plan to vote Conservative, but 32% still back the Liberals and 11% support the NDP. It’s not the kind of dominant lead the Conservatives once hoped for—especially given how central this issue has been to their campaign. Even on housing affordability and the economy, the Liberal brand has improved. On who would do the best job growing the economy, the Liberals lead by five points. On housing, Conservatives lead by five, but that margin is shrinking.
When voters are asked more broadly who would best handle key issues, the Liberals outperform on most. Carney’s team leads on Trump, international relations, and unity, and is essentially tied on healthcare. The Conservatives have a slight advantage on the cost of living while the Liberals have a similar sized advantage on the economy. The salience of Trump may be fading, but the Liberals’ dominance among those who still care deeply about it remains one of the strongest vote predictors in the campaign.
One of the most important developments late in the campaign is the evolving way voters are framing the ballot question. At the end of March, more Canadians said they would cast their vote based on which party could best handle Donald Trump’s impact on Canada. But in our most recent surveys that has flipped back. Fifty-six per cent now say the more decisive factor is which party can deliver a change in direction and policy, while only 44% say it’s about who can manage the Trump threat. That’s a 10-point swing over the course of the election The shift reflects a return to economic bread-and-butter issues as a more dominant lens, especially as Canadians finish voting during the final stretch of the campaign.
However, even with the Trump frame declining in salience, it remains a powerful predictor of vote choice. Among those who continue to prioritize Trump’s impact on Canada, the Liberals hold a massive lead—60% say they will vote Liberal, compared to just 19% for the Conservatives. In contrast, among those focused on affordability, the race tightens. The Conservatives lead that group 51% to 25% over the Liberals, with the NDP at 12% among those who say their primary choice is about change.
But the Liberal vote in this affordability-focused group is more resilient than expected, particularly given how central cost-of-living issues have been to the Conservative campaign. Similarly, when the election is framed as a choice between affordability and Trump, affordability wins by a wider margin but the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives is lower – the Conservatives only lead by 16.
Regionally and demographically, the frame matters. In Quebec and Atlantic Canada, the Trump frame remains relatively strong, contributing to the Liberal vote advantage in both regions. Among older voters, who are more likely to see Trump as a central concern, the Liberal advantage persists, even as affordability rises in importance. Meanwhile, younger Canadians overwhelmingly frame the election as about change or the cost of living. What this all points to is a ballot question in flux—but with core voter segments locked into the Liberals when the conversation is about global risk and leadership, while the Conservatives only gain ground when the lens narrows strictly to affordability. That tension has helped sustain the Liberal lead in vote intention, even as the economic frame dominates the campaign’s final week.
Despite the tightening of the horse race and a growing demand for change, 48% of Canadians say they expect the Liberals to win the election, an increase of one point since last week. Meanwhile, 32% believe the Conservatives will come out on top—unchanged over the same period.
Canadians tuned in to the debates in modest numbers, with 47% saying they watched at least some of the English-language leaders’ debate and 33% reporting they did the same for the French debate. Another third heard about them through media or word of mouth. These numbers suggest the debates reached a sizable, though not overwhelming, share of the electorate—and, as the data show, the impact on impressions was incremental, not transformational.
Among those who engaged with the debates, Mark Carney came out slightly ahead of Pierre Poilievre in both languages, earning 37% of the vote for best performance in the English debate compared to Poilievre’s 34%, and 26% in the French debate versus 29% for Poilievre. However, the most striking figure may be the large share of viewers who said no one really earned their vote: 16% in English and 26% in French. This reinforces the idea that the debates largely confirmed existing leanings rather than shifting voter preferences.
Looking at impressions, Carney consistently left more positive marks than his rivals. In the English debate, 52% of viewers said he made a positive impression—six points ahead of Poilievre, who also generated more negative reactions (29% vs. Carney’s 23%). Among francophone Quebecers, Yves-François Blanchet led on positive impressions at 59%, but Carney still edged Poilievre in net favourability (41% positive, 23% negative vs. Poilievre’s 47% positive, 29% negative). Overall, these numbers suggest Carney effectively maintained his leadership brand through the debates, while Poilievre was unable to shift the race in his favour.
With just days remaining before election day, our latest tracking suggests the trajectory of the campaign remains largely unchanged. Despite a shift in how voters are framing their decision—more now clearly say affordability is their top concern rather than Donald Trump’s impact on Canada—the Liberals continue to hold a modest but durable lead. The televised leaders’ debates last week, expected to be pivotal moments, appear to have done little to reshape public opinion. And the early read from the long weekend, when nearly a quarter of Canadians say they cast their ballot, shows that impressions solidified before the debates and holiday gatherings have largely stuck. The race, in other words, is still playing out on familiar ground—with the Liberals narrowly ahead.
What’s holding this Liberal advantage together is the largely positive appeal of Mark Carney. Although a majority of Canadians still say they want change, many also say they like Carney and see him as best equipped to manage the risks posed by Donald Trump. That internal tension—between wanting to punish the Liberals for past performance and feeling reassured by Carney’s leadership—is creating space for the Liberals to win, even in a change election. Carney’s favourables remain the strongest of any major leader, and among those prioritizing stability and leadership, he has become the clear choice.
The Conservatives still have a path forward, but it’s a narrowing one. Affordability remains a potent issue, especially among middle-aged voters, and the Conservatives continue to lead among those who see it as their top concern. But it hasn’t been enough to tip the race. The Liberals remain better positioned regionally, with double-digit leads in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, competitive support in Quebec and British Columbia, and a more motivated and committed base. Unless the Conservatives can engineer a major momentum shift in the final stretch, the early vote and polling trends suggest the Liberals still hold the advantage—and it’s one built on leadership impressions, turnout readiness, and the right vote efficiency in the ridings that matter most.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
If you’ve followed our polling during this campaign, you’ll know we’ve gone beyond the usual vote intention numbers. Yes, we track the horserace. But to really understand where this election is going—and why—we’ve asked Canadians more questions than any other pollster: about what they care about, what they fear, what they hope for, and what they believe.
And what’s emerged is a clear, nuanced picture of what’s motivating supporters of each major party. In an election shaped by economic strain, geopolitical anxiety, and a new Liberal leader in Mark Carney, understanding what’s driving people is just as important as knowing how they’ll vote.
Here’s what we’ve learned.
For Liberal supporters, this election is about stability. They’re not immune to frustration about affordability, housing, or healthcare—but their vote is fundamentally shaped by the belief that the world is dangerous and uncertain, and that someone competent needs to be in charge.
The return of Donald Trump as U.S. President defined that mindset. His threats to annex parts of Canada and the imposition of tariffs have elevated anxiety and shifted people into a precarity mindset. For many voters, this election became about choosing the leader best equipped to navigate a rough storm. And in their minds, that leader is Mark Carney.
Carney’s brand—calm, credible, globally connected—is well aligned with these anxieties. Liberal voters aren’t just supporting a party; they’re backing a leadership style they believe can protect Canada from chaos, both economic and political.
In short, the Liberal coalition is being held together by a sense that we can’t afford to roll the dice right now.
The Conservative base is motivated by a very different emotional current: a deep desire to reclaim control.
Control over the cost of living. Over borders and immigration. Over national identity and narrative. Their support is rooted not just in economic anxiety, but in a broader discomfort with what feels like a country slipping out of their hands.
This mindset has been building for some time, but it’s been supercharged by the feeling that the political class is out of touch. For these voters, inflation isn’t just a policy problem—it’s proof that Ottawa doesn’t get it. Immigration isn’t just a demographic trend—it’s a symbol of lost control. And Trump’s threats? They’re frustrating, yes, but many Conservatives are more angry that Canada seems unable to respond with strength or resolve.
Pierre Poilievre’s appeal to these voters lies in his clarity and combativeness. He doesn’t equivocate. He blames. He promises to “axe” the carbon tax, “fire” the gatekeepers, and “take back” control. For many Conservatives, that bluntness is not a flaw—it’s the point.
They want to change the channel, not fine-tune the volume.
NDP: Fixing What’s Broken
New Democrats are driven by a conviction that the system isn’t working—for anyone but the very few.
Their supporters talk about affordability, but they frame it differently. It’s not just about prices. It’s about fairness. It’s about the belief that housing, healthcare, and basic services should be rights, not privileges. Their worldview is more global and more idealistic, connecting local struggles with international inequality, foreign policy independence, and environmental justice.
In many ways, the NDP vote is the most emotionally aspirational. These voters aren’t just reacting to fear or uncertainty—they’re pushing for something better, something fairer. The problem is, they’re often caught between wanting that bold change and fearing the cost of splitting the progressive vote.
Still, the people voting NDP in this election believe deeply that another Canada is possible. Their support is powered by a mix of frustration and hope—a sense that we can do better, and that someone needs to fight for it.
Bloc supporters are different. Their motivations don’t fit neatly into a left-right spectrum because their politics is, first and foremost, about Quebec.
Their top concerns—whether the economy, immigration, or language—are always filtered through a lens of cultural preservation and regional pride. They want to protect the French language. They want control over immigration policy. They want a government that prioritizes Quebec, not just accommodates it.
In our polling, Bloc voters frequently reference “choisir un chef fort” (choose a strong leader) and “économie et la langue.” These aren’t abstractions. They reflect a deeper desire for self-determination and dignity in a federation that often feels dismissive of Quebec’s uniqueness.
And while the Bloc may not form government, their voters aren’t sending a message—they’re asserting an identity. They vote to be heard. And that motivation is powerful.
When we reduce elections to bar graphs and decimal points, we risk missing the human stories underneath. This campaign is about far more than who’s ahead. It’s about how Canadians feel in a moment of enormous flux—economically, culturally, and geopolitically.
Some want stability. Some want control. Some want fairness. Some want recognition.
Our job as pollsters isn’t just to measure public opinion—it’s to help interpret it. And after thousands of interviews over the course of this campaign, one thing is clear: this election is not just a referendum on the past decade. It’s a reckoning with the kind of country people believe we should become.
Understanding what drives voters doesn’t just help predict the outcome. It helps explain why the outcome matters.
And that, in the end, is what public opinion is all about.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 adult Canadians over the age of 18 from April 18 to 21, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
Binary Logistic Regression
To identify the key predictors of support for the Liberal Party under Mark Carney’s leadership, we used a binary logistic regression model. This statistical technique estimates the likelihood that a respondent chooses a particular outcome—in this case, voting Liberal—based on a set of independent variables.
Unlike linear regression, which predicts a continuous outcome, logistic regression is used when the dependent variable is binary (e.g., support vs. no support). The model calculates the probability that an individual will vote Liberal, based on factors such as personal impressions of the leaders, issue priorities, demographic characteristics, and views on the state of the country.
The coefficients from the model represent the change in the log-odds of voting Liberal associated with each predictor, holding all other variables constant. A positive coefficient indicates an increased likelihood of voting Liberal, while a negative coefficient suggests a decreased likelihood.
This method allows us to isolate the individual impact of each factor and identify which attributes are most strongly associated with support for the Liberals—offering a more precise understanding of what’s driving voter behaviour in the current election context.
While traditional R-squared (as used in linear regression) doesn’t directly apply to logistic regression, we use pseudo R-squared measures to assess model fit.
Both values suggest this logistic model provides a robust and meaningful explanation for what drives someone to vote Liberal in this election scenario.
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
At 8:30 p.m. Eastern, as the English‑language leaders’ debate was close to wrapping up in Montréal, our team at Abacus Data pushed a national, English‑only survey into field. Within roughly ninety minutes we captured responses from a representative sample of 1,200 Canadian adults.
We asked every participant whether they had watched “all or most,” “some,” or “a little” of the debate, or not at all, and we analyse results through that lens. But the time‑zone spread, the English‑only questionnaire, and rapid turnaround all argue for caution: the numbers are instructive, not definitive. Still, they showcase how quickly the Abacus Data team can move to capture reaction to an important event like tonight’s debate.
In total, 602 people in our sample said they watched at least a little of the leaders’ debate.
Overall, as of 10:00pm ET, 51% of Canadians said they watched at least “a little” of the debate, and 39% claimed to have seen “all” or “most” of it. Somewhat surprisingly, there wasn’t a big difference in viewership by age. 36% of those aged 18 to 44 said they watched at least some of it, 37% of those aged 45 to 59, and 45% of those aged 60 and over said they watched some or most of it.
Of those who watched, traditional television still dominated: 64% caught the debate on a conventional TV feed, compared with 19% who streamed it online, 13% who streamed through social media, and 3% who listened on the radio.
First impressions: who shone, who stumbled
When we asked debate viewers whether each leader left a positive, neutral, or negative impression, the verdict tilted toward Mark Carney. Fully 59% rated his performance positively compared with 53% who felt the same way about Pierre Poilievre. 41% felt Jagmeet Singh left them with a positive impression while 25% felt the same way about Yves-Francois Blanchet.
In contrast, 22% said Carney’s debate performance left them with a negative impression compared with 30% for Poilievre and 35% for Singh. Taken together, the net impact on impressions for Carney is +37, +23 for Poilievre, and +6 for Singh.
The split views hold when we ask viewers who they felt did the most to win their vote. 43% said Poilievre did the most to win the vote followed closely by Mark Carney at 40%, a statistically tie. 11% felt Singh did the most to earn their vote with 2% picking Blanchet and 5% saying none of them did.
84% of Liberal voters said Carney did the most to earn their vote while 90% of Conservatives felt the same way about Poilievre. Among NDP supporters, 65% felt Singh did the best, followed by 16% who picked Carney and 13% who picked Poilievre.
When we ask who did the most to “lose your vote”, 29% picked Poilievre, followed by 21% who picked Carney. Singh was third at 17% and Blanchet was at 13%. 20% said none of the leaders did the most to lose their vote.
Did minds actually change?
Debate nights rarely flip the race, but they do shake the edges of the electorate. Just over seven in ten viewers told us the debate did not change how they intend to vote. Another 23% say it has made them “re‑think” their decision—essentially opening the door to persuasion—while only 4% assert the debate has made them change how they plan to vote. Among those who say they debate made them rethink or change their vote, current vote intention is: Liberal 43%, Conservative 41%, NDP 13%, Green 3%. Among those who say they debate did not change their vote, vote intention is Conservative 47%, Liberal 44%, NDP 7%, Green Party 1%, and People’s Party 1%.
Expectations versus reality
Heading into tonight, our pre‑debate survey found that Canadians thought Carney was more likely than Poilievre to “do best” the English debate, even though expectations for his showing in French were far lower. The early read is that both Carney and Poilievre likely met expectations and neither gained a significant advantage over the other.
If campaigns are marathons punctuated by sprints, tonight’s English‑language debate looks like a brisk jog that left the two frontrunners exactly where they started. Mark Carney produced the marginally warmer afterglow—59 per cent of viewers said he left them feeling more positive, versus 53 per cent for Pierre Poilievre—but the gap is well within the emotional noise of a political TV event. Equally important, neither leader repelled large swaths of voters: Carney’s net impression sits at +37, Poilievre’s at +23, a difference significant for bragging rights but not yet for ballot boxes.
The key metric for momentum is movement, and on that score the dial barely twitched. Just four per cent of viewers tell us they’ve actually switched their vote; another 23 per cent are “re‑thinking,” but their current preferences mirror the national horse‑race (among English speaking Canadians) almost exactly. In other words, the debate prompted reflection, not realignment.
Could the narrative change over the Easter weekend? Absolutely. Debates age in the after‑show analysis, clips shared on social feeds, and dinner‑table debriefs. Yet our first pass suggests the Liberals’ slim national lead survives intact and the Conservatives may not have found the breakout moment they needed.
Methodology
This survey was conducted with 1,200 English speaking Canadian adults from 8:30pm to 10:00pm on April 17, 2025, following the English-language leaders’ debate. A total of 602 people said they watched at least some of the debate. Respondents were randomly selected from a set of partner panels integrated through the Lucid exchange platform. These panels are typically double opt-in and are blended to reduce the risk of bias from any single source.
A probability-based sample of this size would carry a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Survey data were weighted to reflect the Canadian population by age, gender, education, and region, based on the latest census data. Totals may not sum to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are Canada’s most sought-after, influential, and impactful polling and market research firm. We are hired by many of North America’s most respected and influential brands and organizations.
We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
And we are growing throughout all parts of Canada and the United States and have capacity for new clients who want high quality research insights with enlightened hospitality.
Our record speaks for itself: we were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in the 2019, 2015, and 2011 federal elections.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
Conservative voters more likely to favour persuading Trump, while Atlantic Canadians in survey take hardest line
Between April 7 and 10, 2025, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 1,800 Canadian adults (18+) as part of our weekly election tracking to understand how the how Canada-U.S. relations are impacting the state of housing in Canada. While housing affordability and availability remain top concerns, this wave of research explores how rising trade tensions with the U.S. are now seen as a direct threat to housing security – particularly among those facing high levels of precarity. As global instability grows, Canadians are increasingly viewing housing not just as a domestic issue, but as a key test of leadership and economic resilience.
Housing Affordability Is a Key Ballot Box Issue for Young Canadians and Renters
When asked to identify the top two issues that will most influence their vote in the next federal election, 20% of Canadians point to making housing more affordable, highlighting its importance as a ballot box issue. While ranking third behind cost of living (45%) and dealing with Donald Trump (33%), housing becomes significantly more salient among key voting demographics. For younger Canadians aged 18 to 29, as well as renters, housing affordability plays a much larger role – 30% in both groups identify it as one of the most important factors shaping their vote.
This reinforces that housing affordability, availability, and access remain critical issues – especially for those under the most financial strain. But as trade tensions and tariffs with the U.S. intensify, new pressures are compounding the crisis. These external factors threaten to drive housing concerns and costs even higher and must now be factored into any serious response. Addressing housing can no longer focus solely on domestic supply – it also requires a strategy that accounts for growing global economic instability.
Fear of Homelessness Emerges Amid Economic Fallout
Concerns about the broader economic fallout from the trade war with the U.S. are translating into real fears about housing security for many Canadians. More than half of Canadians (53%) express concern that the economic impacts of the trade war – including rising prices and a potential slowdown – could put them at risk of losing their home or even becoming homeless.
This fear is strongest among younger Canadians (73% of those 18–29), renters (62%), and those with high (63%) or extreme (79%) levels of precarity.
This highlights the emotional toll of economic instability: those already feeling vulnerable are most likely to fear being pushed to the brink by forces beyond their control. It’s a clear warning that growing uncertainty is making even basic housing feel out of reach for many Canadians and that international tensions are not just geopolitical – they’re hitting home in the most literal sense.
Rising Trade Tensions Fuel Housing Insecurity
As Canada navigates a trade dispute with the United States, the fallout is being felt far beyond the economy. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of Canadians say they are worried that rising tariffs and a worsening trade war could affect their ability to afford their mortgage or rent over the next year. These concerns are particularly acute among young Canadians aged 18–29 (80%) and renters (73%), who are more vulnerable to housing instability.
Among Canadians who are worried about losing their home or becoming homeless, 77% also express concern about their ability to afford their mortgage or rent over the next year. In contrast, only 13% of those who aren’t worried about losing their home share that concern.
The findings also show a clear connection between these worries and an individual’s emotional and financial outlook. Among those experiencing high (72%) or extreme (88%) levels of precarity – defined as heightened anxiety and uncertainty about the future – concern is sharply elevated.
As economic uncertainty grows, more Canadians – especially those already at risk – are beginning to see international trade tensions not as distant policy issues, but as direct threats to their ability to pay for housing.
Housing Construction Costs Under Threat
Beyond personal affordability, there is also growing concern that trade tensions could further worsen Canada’s housing supply crisis. A strong majority (78%) of Canadians are worried that ongoing tariffs and international trade disputes will drive up the cost of building homes. This fear is near-universal among those with extreme (94%) and high (83%) precarity scores, and more pronounced among Liberal supporters (83%) than among Conservatives (73%).
This data reinforces that, perceptions of global economic instability – and Canada’s relationship with the U.S. in particular – are being filtered through the lens of housing concerns, especially for those already experiencing vulnerability in their day-to-day lives.
The Upshot
Housing has emerged as one of the most pressing concerns for Canadians over the last 2 years – driven by rising prices, limited supply, and growing inequality. But as trade tensions with the U.S. escalate, that crisis is no longer seen as just a matter of affordability or domestic policy. For many, it represents something much deeper: a symbol of personal security in an unstable world.
Canadians – especially younger people, renters, and those already feeling stretched – are viewing international instability through the lens of precarity. They’re not just worried about tariffs or economic headlines; they’re worried about their ability to stay housed, to plan for the future, and to feel secure in their day-to-day lives. For those already living with heightened anxiety and uncertainty, global economic shocks aren’t abstract – they’re deeply personal.
This shift reveals a rising public demand: Canadians expect leaders to address not only the structural drivers of the housing crisis, but also the emotional toll it’s taking. People want more than promises – they want reassurance that their ability to purchase a home and keep a roof over their heads won’t be threatened by global instability or government inaction. In this moment, bold action on housing isn’t just good policy – it’s a test of leadership, trust, and urgency.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 1,800 Canadian adults from April 7 to 10, 2025. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
About Abacus Data
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering. : https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/