Conservative leads grows to 16 as federal government approval drops 4: Abacus Poll
November 15, 2023
From November 9 to 12, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,000 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys.
In this report, we share new data on:
- The latest vote intention estimates
- The mood of the country
- Views on the federal government’s performance and impressions of the main political party leaders
Federal Vote Intention
If an election were held today, 41% of committed voters would vote Conservatives with the Liberals at 25%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 3%. The BQ is at 28% in Quebec.
Since our last survey, we see almost no change with the Conservatives up 2, the NDP up 1, and the Liberals down 1. However, this is now the largest Conservative lead we have measured in our tracking since the 2015 election.
Regionally, the Conservatives are well ahead in western Canada, including in BC. The Conservatives lead by 12 in Atlantic Canada and 15 in Ontario. In Quebec, we find the Liberals statistically tied with the BQ with the Conservatives 9-points behind the Liberals.
Demographically, the Conservatives lead across all age groups. They lead by 3 among 18 to 29 year olds, 17 among 30 to 44 year olds, 18 among 45 to 59 year olds and 19 among those aged 60 and over.
Introducing Abacus Data MRP A game-changing tool for GR, advocacy, and digital campaign targeting. A must for anyone in GR, campaigning, advertising, digital public affairs
Find out more
What is happening beyond vote intention?
First, we have seen a deterioriation in the general mood of the public. Today, 23% think the country is headed in the right direction while 61% think it’s off on the wrong track. This is the worst outlook we’ve measured on this point.
Similarly, the federal government’s approval is down 4 points in less than two weeks. Today, 26% say they approve of the job performance of the federal government while 58% disapprove.
A total of 84% of Canadians want a change in government with 52% wanting change and feeling there is a good alternative. 32% want change but are not completely comfortable with the alternatives. Just 16% believe that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.
Impressions of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have also become more negative. Today, 58% have a negative impression of the Liberal leader – the highest we have ever recorded. 25% have a positive impression of him for a net favourable of -33.
Impressions of Jagmeet Singh have also become more negative in the past two weeks. Today 36% have a negative view compared with 32% who have a positive one for a net favourable of -4.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is the only leader with net favourables – 37% positive and 33% negative for a score of +4.
When asked who they believe will win the next election, 43% think the Conservatives will win, 18% think the Liberals will, 9% pick the NDP while 30% are unsure.
The Upshot
According to Abacus Data Chair & CEO David Coletto: “As Canadians react to the war between Hamas and Israel, experience rising tensions on the issue here at home, and react with the federal government’s efforts to reduce the impact of inflation and higher interest rates, their mood has soured even further.
Those thinking the country is headed in the right direction is at its lowest level since we’ve been tracking it, including during the worst moments of the COVID-19 pandemic. The federal government’s approval rating and how people feel about the Prime Minister have also shifted negatively in the past two weeks.
All this adds up to continued strength for the Conservatives and weakness for the Liberals in vote intention. The Conservatives lead by 16 – the largest lead we have measured. They lead the Liberals by 15 in Ontario, 13 in Atlantic Canada, and 20 in British Columbia.
These kind of numbers would produce a majority Conservative government based on the new Abacus Data seat projections I released earlier this week.”
Subscribe to my Substack for more in-depth and exclusive polling analysis and insights.
Methodology
The survey was conducted with 2,000 Canadian adults from November 9 to 12, 2023. A random sample of panelists were invited to complete the survey from a set of partner panels based on the Lucid exchange platform. These partners are typically double opt-in survey panels, blended to manage out potential skews in the data from a single source.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20.
The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada’s population according to age, gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
This survey was paid for by Abacus Data Inc.
Abacus Data follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/
ABOUT ABACUS DATA
We are the only research and strategy firm that helps organizations respond to the disruptive risks and opportunities in a world where demographics and technology are changing more quickly than ever.
We are an innovative, fast-growing public opinion and marketing research consultancy. We use the latest technology, sound science, and deep experience to generate top-flight research-based advice to our clients. We offer global research capacity with a strong focus on customer service, attention to detail, and exceptional value.
We were one of the most accurate pollsters conducting research during the 2021 Canadian election following up on our outstanding record in 2019.
Contact us with any questions.
Find out more about how we can help your organization by downloading our corporate profile and service offering.
